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Investors Business Daily (Stocks On The Move; Daily Stock Analysis) StockCharts.coms Stock Scan (too many to handle; CA stocks) StockGarden.com (use with extreme caution)
Online broker ratings (US) TD Ameritrade (US, $9.99/trade) Scottrade (US, $7/trade) Canadian online brokers TradeFreedom (CA, $9.95/trade) Interactive Brokers (CA, $0.01/share, $2 ~ 0.2% trading value/trade) Questrade (CA, $9.95/trade)
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If you cannot calculate gain/loss in percentage, you are not suitable for trading stocks by yourself. If so, keep your money in your bank accounts for interests instead.
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Get the 5 stocks from the Stocks On The Move and the 1 stock from the Daily Stock Analysis sections of IBD. Use free charting sites to analyze the stocks you have collected over the past several days or weeks. If some stocks meet our buy criteria, begin to study their profiles and recent news. If their business models are decent and there is no bad news, you have some potential fish to catch. Use free charting and Yahoos historical price sites to figure out the stop limit buy and sell prices. If the potential loss is more than your tolerance (e.g., 5~10%), let this fish go free. Once you have bought a stock, place a stop limit sell order right away to prevent any disastrous loss. If the stock price moves higher, study its chart daily. Change the stop limit sell order to new higher low price, so that you will keep most of the gain and exit before the fast imminent downfall.
Market Tops
higher high lower high
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lower high
higher high
Market Bottoms
lower high breaking point
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lower high
Trade Tops
place stop-limit buy order here
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Trade Bottoms
enter (buy) at breaking point
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Full Trade
1st stop-limit buy order 2nd stop-limit buy order 3rd stop-limit buy order trailing stop-limit sell orders buy (cover short) at breaking point 1st stop-limit sell order sell short or exit buy
Risk Control
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Only after the set-up of these potential market bottoms is formed, you can then proceed below.
1st: Place initial stop-limit buy order here. If future price breaks above this level, your stop-limit buy order will be filled. 3rd: Potential loss = Price (buy) Price (sell) Keep the loss 10% of your buy price.
Loss from top Gain to break even 9% 11% 18% 25% 43%
2nd: After your buy order is filled, place a stop-limit sell order here immediately. If future price breaks below this level, your stop-limit sell order will be filled.
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Once the price moves up, shift stop-limit sell order to higher lows to protect profit. In & Out is better than Buy & Hold. The strategy of short sell is the reverse.
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IO1 short
trailing buy-to-cover-short orders exit (sell short) Risk < 3%
cover short
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IO1 long
exit (sell)
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Sometimes, IO1 does not work well, because the nearest higher lows (lower highs), if used as trailing exit (buy-to-cover) points, do not produce much profit. In this case, we will instead work with IO2, in which the method of entry (with appropriate risk control) is the same as IO1, but the exit strategy is different. Once a buy order is filled, immediately place a stop-limit sell order at yesterdays low. After todays market close, shift the stop-limit sell order to todays low. This stop-limit sell order will last till tomorrows market close when the stop-limit sell order will be reset to tomorrows low, unless the active stop-limit sell order is filled during todays market action. The IO2 strategy of short sell is the reverse. IO2 has a much shorter trading span than IO1 does: You will stay in a position only a few days (1~7 days normally).
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IO2 long
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When to use which? You need to study the price action of a stock for the past 36 months, during which the same market makers (mutual funds, big banks, etc.) have been manipulating the price action of the stock. If historical data indicate that IO1 performs better than IO2, you will adopt IO1 for the current trade. In other words, history (not your fancy) will dictate your trading strategy. Can we alternate them or combine them in a single trade? Yes. We can! Again, when to use which requires a few more advanced techniques that constitute In & Out Level 3 (IO3). To learn IO3, we need the help from some technical indicators. I will not explain how to compute such technical indicators, but simply tell you which ones to plot on your stock charts and how to trade them in combination with IO1 and IO2. In the end, IO3 will instruct you to use IO1 till the last waltz when you switch to IO2. Essentially, IO3 = IO1 + IO2 (3 = 1 + 2).
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Switch to IO2 if ADX(10) is 50+, or both %D(10) and ADX(10) begin to go down or stay flat. Otherwise, stay with IO1.
%D(10) (the brown curve) indicates the overall trend of price action.
The peaks of ADX(10) (the black curve) signal the price tops (if +DI above DI) or the bottoms (if DI above +DI). When ADX(10) 50, the current trend is going to reverse. When +DI and DI are twisted together, the stock price is going sideways.
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IO3 long
long buying Gain > 33%
IO1 exit (sell) enter (buy) Risk < 10% IO3 exit (sell) enter (buy) Risk < 10%
> 50
> 50
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My Confession
My strategy does not work all the time: only 80% of the time. Signals of regular tops and bottoms are much more faithful than irregular ones. I normally only trade regular tops and bottoms. You should do the same. The 10% risk control (or money management) is essential for your trade success. If you are very concerned about risk, you may decrease it to 8% or even to 5%. However, a smaller risk factor will miss many good trades: 10% is a good compromise between risk and reward. The choice is yours. With the 10% risk control (or money management), my In & Out strategy is much, much better than Buy & Hold. It is harmful to have a fighting back mentality after a trade loss. Enter or re-enter a trade if and only if the signal is right. Be cool; do not gamble!
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Do not use trend lines, chart patterns, candlestick patterns, and technical indicators to trade. These things only provide some advanced warnings. Do not try to predict tops and bottoms. Market action should be the only factor in your trading practice. Greed and fear are the two archenemies of your trading success. Only invest in 5 or fewer stocks. More stocks bring more stress. Only buy stocks whose prices are higher than $15 per share. Avoid those stocks with a lot of gaps and wild daily volatility. You do not have to trade. Sometimes, cash is the best choice. You should enjoy trading and have fun! If not, do not trade.
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Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) Directional Movement Index (DMI)
Trend Indicators
Volatility Indicators
Slow Stochastics (Slow STO) Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Relative Strength Index (RSI) Williams %R (%R) Momentum/Rate of Change (ROC)
Momentum Indicators
ASPV
BigCharts
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BB
MACD
Slow STO
Volume+
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CCI
BLUD
StockCharts
SAR BB
Volume+ PPO
CMF
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