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Summary
The continuing unrest in Syria is turning the country into another battleground in the regional competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Syria and Iran have long been allies; were a Sunni Arab regime with closer ties to Riyadh to take the place of the Alawite minority-led government in Damascus, the loss to Tehrans regional influence would be profound. While Saudi Arabia has not actively sought to topple the Syrian regime, Syrias present crisis presents an opportunity for Saudi Arabia to turn back the gains Iran has made since 2003 though Tehran can be expected to put considerable resources toward ensuring the Syrian regimes survival.
Analysis
As the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al Assads regime enters its fifth month, the Syrian government has escalated its crackdown, with tanks besieging the restive city of Hama on July 31 and Syrian forces killing at least 200 people over the course of the ensuing four days, according to media reports. Political reform initiatives offered by the al Assad regime have failed to quell the unrest, and the governments heavy use of force in the face of mounting casualties has pressured international stakeholders to address the situation. Thus far, no country has pushed for regime change in Syria given the political uncertainty it could bring. However it is clear by this point that the al Assad government could fall or be significantly weakened as a result of the unrest, and outside powers are reconsidering their policies toward Syria accordingly in order to secure their interests. The most important player to watch in this is Saudi Arabia, for which the Syrian state has long been a major problem due to its alliance with Iran. With Iraq falling into the Iranian orbit after the U.S. invasion that toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein, the Saudis have been extremely concerned about the rise of a largely Shia regional arc stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Until the wave of popular unrest swept the Arab world, the Saudis were without any effective counters to the growing Iranian influence along their northern periphery. Now that Syria is in play, the Saudis have a potential option to turn back Irans influence.
Iran is well aware of the possible consequences if the al Assad regime succumbs to the domestic unrest, which is why it is going out of its way to support it. There have been reports of Tehran using all its assets the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security and its militant proxy, Hezbollah to help Damascus put down the uprising. For Iran, Syria undergoing regime change would mean the Islamic republic loses the bulk of the regional sphere of influence it has spent the last 30 years building up. The Iranians also know that a Sunni-dominated Syria would be closer to Turkey as well. Ankaras criticism of the al Assad regime for its violent crackdown against civilians has grown louder in recent weeks, and Turkeys overall regional ascendency means that Tehrans long-term competition with Ankara is only beginning. Turkish interests also converge with Saudi interests on Syria, and Iran may face a combined effort against it should the current regime fall.
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