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Andrew Jones Resource-Net Brussels, Belgium Global Steel Conference New Delhi, India January 2011
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Chart shows world pig iron output on an annualized and seasonally adjusted basis over the 12 months to November 2010. After the strength of the first half of 2010, a decline started from June due to the economic uncertainty. Tendency in the 12 months to November was marginally negative: average decrease of 0.2% per month.
Million tpy
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Pricing for Coke Indexed vs Steel & Other Raw Materials 2009-10
1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
Following weakness in Q3 2010, there was a small recovery in commodity prices in the last quarter despite worsening economies in Europe and North America. This shows how commodities are linked into the healthier Asian economies. Limited supplies of good-quality coking coal and export tax on Chinese coke means that carbon reductants are a choke point for the steel industry. Note that coke generally outperformed steel over past year.
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Coke Markets
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Europe C&F
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$556
$600
$/tonne fob
000 tonnes
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
$314 $260 $143 $64 $64 $70 $76 $68 $65 $51 $67 $66 $79
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $300 $200 $100 $0
$192 $152
Exports
Price
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70% 65%
Million tonnes
37%
100 0 1995
37% 35%
38%
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China
Rest of World
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2009
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China emerged as major import market for coking coal in 2009. Its imports of 34m tonnes are significant when you consider total world trade in met coal has been at the level of 200250m tonnes in past few years. We estimate that imports of coking coal were equivalent to 7% of total coking demand in China in 2009 (12% in previous years). In 2010, we project that imports increased to >45m tonnes, of which 35m tonnes would be by sea. Imports of good-quality coking coal are being encouraged by the government to enhance efficiency of the coking industry. If this policy continues, the impact on the coking coal market will be profound.
Mongolia
Sea borne
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Focus on India
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2005
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2009
Integrated steel producers has accounted for 76-77% of coke production in India in last four years, declining from 80% in 2005. The rest is smaller scale plants supplying the non-steel market, mainly merchant pig iron (including some owned by MPI producers for captive use). Most of the growth since 2005 has come from the merchant sector supplying merchant pig iron, soda ash and ferroalloys industries. Capacity utilization has declined from 78% in 2005 to 68% in 2009. This reflects extensive capacity additions in last few years, though precise status of some projects is unknown to us.
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Ennore Coke Haldia, WB Bhushan Steel Dhenkanal, Orissa Global Coke Sindhudurg, Maharashtra Gujarat NRE Dharwad, Karnataka Gujarat NRE Nellore, AP JSL Stainless Duburi, Orissa
In addition to this plant, Ennore Coke also has conversion agreements with plants in Gujarat and Jamshedpur and has acquired a previously closed plant in Orissa. Two batteries with by-product recovery were due to be commissioned by the end of 2010. Coke will meet demand from Bhushan's blast furnace started in early 2010. Plant previously operated some years ago as Hari Om Metcoke. Global Coke acquired plant from the liquidator and restarted in 2010. Global Coke has also acquired plant of bankrupt Navanagar Coke in Gujarat (0.30m tpy) in 2009. Set up in 2005 as JV between Kalyani Steel and Gujarat NRE Coke, but now fully owned by latter company. The company's third coke plant is to be sited in Andhra Pradesh. Construction began in 2010 and will take two-three years to complete. It will supply steelmakers in the state. Before the end of 2010, JSL Stainless was due to have commissioned coke production in Orissa for its own use.
0.13
2008-09
0.75
2010-11
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2010
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1.00
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0.40
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5%
0%
Coke imports by India peaked at 4.7m tonnes in 2007, declining to 2.2-2.3m tonnes in subsequent years. In 2007, imports accounted for around 20% of demand, but in most years the figure has been 10-15%. India lacks locally available coke displacement options that exist in other countries, e.g. gas coke in South Africa, anthracite in Europe, charcoal in Brazil. It is likely to remain the worlds single largest import market for coke. Indian coke demand on apparent basis (production + imports exports) hit peak of 23.2m tonnes in 2006. In 2009 demand was 20.8m tonnes. Some of the larger Indian merchant coke plants have exported in recent years. Brazil imported 150,000 tonnes from India in 2010.
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Closing Comments
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