Malls around the eMirates a shopping Centre inventory 2011

A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION 2011

a CushMan & WaKeField researCh puBliCation

A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION 2011

MALLS ACROSS THE EMIRATES A SHOPPING CENTRE INVENTORY 2011

OVERVIEW
The United Arab Emirates, and Dubai in particular, is now considered to be a top global retail location and has positioned itself on the global retail map. The Al Ghurair Centre, the first purpose built shopping centre in the UAE, opened in Dubai to an expectant public in 1981. Since then, the retail sector has seen phenomenal growth in supply especially over the last few years. This significant growth in all areas of commercial and residential real estate development has been a fundamental element of the outside worlds perception of Dubai none more so than its grand temples to consumerism the mega-malls. Dubai has become world famous for its glitzy designer boutiques, its electronic and gold bargains and its Annual Dubai Shopping Festival. Dubai can now compete with London, New York and Paris on the luxury brand high street as yet more designers scramble to open outlets at the Fashion Dome and Fashion Avenue. The growth of the mega centres such as Mall of the Emirates, The Dubai Mall, Deira City Centre and new additions like Mirdiff City Centre have led the way and now form the template for retail expansion across the UAE and beyond. This Cushman & Wakefield Report examines the current supply of Shopping Malls across all seven Emirates of the UAE, charts how this development has occurred and forecasts for future supply to 2015. For the purposes of this report Cushman & Wakefield has defined a shopping centre as a centrally managed, purpose-built retail facility, with a Gross Lettable Area of over 5,000 sq m and comprising 10+ retail units. Souqs and Hypermarkets are excluded. All tables are based on information from Cushman & Wakefields in-house GCC Shopping Centre Database. Our projected GLA figures account for population growth based on published forecasts. Shopping centre development research was carried out on the basis of the retail provision detailed in official press releases and our internal database.
GLA (SQ M)

total annual retail supply(sQ M)

800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research 2010

1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7

Marina Mall, Abu Dhabi Mall Sahara Centre, Safeer Mall Mall of the Emirates, Ibn Battuta Mall Al Wahda Mall The Dubai Mall Mirdiff City Centre Mushrif Mall, Dalma Mall Deerfields Town Square, Paragon Bay

CuMulative uae retail supply(sQ M)

7,000,000 6,000,000 GLA (SQ M) 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research 2010

1 2

Oxford Economics Forecasts 2010 MENA FM, Nielson: UAE maintains its ranking amongst top 10 most optimistic nations, 8 November 2010 1

Malls around the eMirates: a shopping Centre inventory 2011

RETAIL MARKET INDICATORS

GDP
Current GDP in the UAE stands at AED 527,2601. The UAE is expected to experience annual GDP growth of 4.05% from 2010 to 2011, increasing to an average of 4.60% over the next 5 years to 2015.

COnsumER COnfIDEnCE
The latest consumer confidence survey by the researchcompany Nielsen shows that of those polled in the UAE, three quarters said they believed the country was in a recession. Only 28 per cent expected the country would be out of the recession in the next 12 months, a drop from 42 per cent in the previous quarter. However the UAE is still ranked 10th in terms of the most optimistic nation.2

In Abu Dhabi, tourist numbers were up 16 per cent y-o-y to just over 1 million in the period January-July 2010. In Sharjah, the number of tourists in the first half of 2010 increased nearly 11 per cent y-o-y to over 745,000. Relatively strong recovery in arrivals growth is anticipated in 2010 (but from a low base in 2009), although growth is forecast to moderate slightly in 2011. These forecasts are based on economic recovery in major source markets, particularly the Eurozone, the UK and the Middle East.

CPI
Prices of goods are still increasing but at a lower rate to that witnessed in previous years. uae gdp and population ForeCast
2010 GDP, Real Population (in 000s) 527,060 4,700 2011 548,408 4,800 2012 579,117 4,900 2013 611,548 5,000 2014 643,654 5,100 2015 675,192 5,190

COnsumER sPEnDInG
A recent Dubai Chamber of Commerce report forecast that retail spending in Dubai would increase by 4 per cent in 2010 and by more than 8 per cent in 2011. Expenditure in the UAE is expected to reach AED 627.8 billion in 2020 according to Euromonitor International 3. They project that between 2010 and 2020, consumer spending will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 5 per cent. Recent data from Majid Al Futtaim shows that 50.2 per cent of total retail expenditure is in supermarkets and hypermarkets. Fashion and travel account for 6.7 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively, whilst luxury goods accounted for 6.2 per cent of total spending.

Source: Oxford Economics, 2010

shopping Centre FootFall

Mall Dubai Mall Mall of Emirates Deira City Centre Abu Dhabi Mall Marina Mall
*Estimated. Source: www.thedubaimall.com

Annual Footfall (2009) 37 million* 30.6 million >20 million 4 14.4 million 10.8 million

REtaIl REVEnuE
UAE retail revenue continues to register growth despite the economic slowdown across the globe. Based on a study by Business Monitor International, the UAE ranks first in the retail business environment league table for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region in 2010. With its strong wealth and high consumer spending the UAE outperforms its regional peers. The report states that the UAE's retail sales have grown to over $107 billion in 2009 from $104 billion by 2008 and are expected to climb to over $120 billion by the end of 2011.

uae Cpi
Emirates CPI Abu Dhabi Dubai Sharjah Ras Al Khaimah Fujairah Ajman Umm Al Quwain
Source: UAE National Bureau of Statistics

% Change YoY 0.81 0.59 0.14 1.24 0.59 1.13 1.08

fOOtfall
Annual footfall in major regional malls remains strong however the malls in Dubai continue to attract a significantly higher volume of visitors than their Abu Dhabi competitors.

Major uae eConoMiC and retail seCtor indiCators6

Indicators Nominal GDP, USD (bn) Real GDP growth, % GDP per capita, USD Consumer spending per capita, USD Retail sales, Annual growth rate% 2008 251.9 7.4 53,422 22,089 14.7 2009 268.7 1.3 57,580 22,982 4 2010f 300.7 2.4 64,423 23,411 3.6 2011f 323.6 3.4 67,983 24,379 7.2

tOuRIsm
Visitors have traditionally formed a core target market for retailers in the UAE and the tourism sector as a whole is performing well 5 in 2010, after negative growth in foreign arrivals in 2009. In Dubai, figures for H1 2010 show that the total number of hotel guests was up 9 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y). The total number of foreign guest arrivals (excluding UAE tourists) fell 4 per cent y-o-y, to about 6.8 million. This can be largely attributed to a marked decline in visitors from Europe, with tourist arrivals from the UK the key source market falling 16 per cent y-o-y.
3

Gulf News, UAE consumers ease back into spending mode, Cleofe Maceda, 24 October 2010 4 Events and Promos Deira City Centre

A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION 2011

DUBAI
ExIstInG suPPly
Dubai is the most established retail location in the UAE and remains the most advanced in terms of product. The Emirate has witnessed significant growth in terms of retail supply, with its GLA per 1,000 currently at 1,385 sq m. Many of Dubais planned projects have been delayed significantly or put on hold, however the citys stock of destination malls increased with the opening of the 130,000 sq m Mirdiff City Centre in March 2010. Unless the City of Arabia project goes ahead and Mall of Arabia is delivered, MCC is likely to be the last of its kind, at least in the short term. Total supply in Dubai currently stands at approximately 2,385,157 sq m (25,673,830 sq ft) with no significant additions to stock being recorded in the immediate term. For most retailers, expansion plans are either being revised downwards or cancelled altogether. Despite strong tourism and a projected rise in consumer spending, there has been an increase in mall vacancies, particularly in tier two locations that do not attract the same footfall as the mega malls. Dubais supermalls have attracted the worlds most prominent brands in luxury retail. These upscale shops have been catering to affluent shoppers, mostly wealthy tourists. However a change in market conditions, coupled with a global economic crisis that stifled spending habits, is anticipated to initiate a transition that will lead mall owners to focus more on attracting domestic consumers. The tourism sector remains a significant component of retail spending in Dubai, but the future health of the local retail market will be primarily driven by the speed with which retail spending increases across the local and expatriate population.

- Existing supply at Q4 2010 (GLA) = 2,385,157 sq m - Pipeline supply to 2015 (GLA) = 15,842* sq m - Total supply in 2015 = 2,400,999 sq m - City population = 1,722,000 7 - Existing GLA per 1,000 city population at Q4 2010 = 1,385 sq m - Projected GLA per 1000 city population in 2015 = 1,261 sq

existing and planned duBai Malls ranKed By size

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Mall Mall of Arabia Phase 1 The Dubai Mall Mall of Emirates Mirdiff City Centre Dubai Festival City Owner Ilyas & Mastafa Galadari Grp Emaar Malls Group LLC Majid Al Futtaim Properties LLC Majid Al Futtaim Properties LLC Al Futtaim Sons GLA (sq m) 37,512 350, 244 222,967 196,000 183,514 Open in tbc 2008 2005 2010 2007

*excludes Mall of Arabia and Arena Sports Mall as completion date unknown

DEVElOPmEnt PIPElInE
As part of the $5bn City of Arabia project being developed by the Ilyas and Mustafa Galadari Group in Dubailand, the 371,512 sq m Mall of Arabia (Phase 1) was due to open at the end of 2010. The project however has been put on hold and when and if, it does recommence, is likely to be up against strong competition from the existing malls. We do not anticipate any further major mall supply until the completion of this project. Dubai has a staggering number of shopping centres devoted to high-end consumers. The demand for new mega malls is unlikely to rise for another five years. More localised centres that create or enhance communities are expected to fare much better. GLA per 1,000 population in Dubai is set to fall to 1,261 sq m by 2015. This reflects the anticipated population growth and uncertainty in the supply pipeline.

Deira City Centre, Dubai

The Dubai Mall, Dubai

5 6 7

Business Monitor International - United Arab Emirates Tourism Report Q4 2010 Dubai Chamber based on data from BMI; f = forecast Ministry of Economy, Abu Dhabi 2009 3

Malls around the eMirates: a shopping Centre inventory 2011

duBai shopping Centre supply (opening date)

Al Ghurair Centre
(1981)
Burjuman
(1992)
Dubai Festival City
(2007)
The Dubai Mall
(2008)
Mall of the Emirates
(2005)
Wa City
(1991)
Deira City Centre
(1995)

Mirdiff City Centre

(2010)

Ibn Battuta Mall

(2005)
Arena Sports Mall
(tbc)

Mall of Arabia Phase 1 (tbc)

Source: Google Map Data 2010

aBu dhaBi shopping Centre supply (opening date)

Abu Dhabi Mall

(2001)
Paragon Bay
( 2011)

Yas Mall ( 2012)

Deerelds Town Square

(2011)

Marina Mall
(2001)
The Reem Mall
(2013)

Emporium at Central Market (2011)

Al Wahda Mall
(2007 ext. 2012)
Dalma Mall
(2010)

Source: Google Map Data 2010

Abu Dhabi Statistics Year Book 2010

A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION 2011

ABU DHABI
ExIstInG suPPly
Abu Dhabis retail market is currently undersupplied in terms of recreational mega malls compared with Dubai, however this is starting to change as new stock is developed. Abu Dhabis current shopping centre stock is approximately 908,594 sq m and is mainly located in early generation shopping centres such as Marina Mall, Abu Dhabi Mall and Al Wahda Mall. The average occupancy rates of malls in Abu Dhabi is approximately 90% and those offering leisure and entertainment provision are generally fully let. Retailers can struggle to find suitable space in Abu Dhabi.

- Existing supply at Q4 2010 (GLA) = 908,594 sq m - Pipeline supply to 2015 (GLA) = 905,486 sq m - Total supply in 2015 = 1,814,080 sq m - City population = 970,322 8 - Existing GLA per 1,000 population at Q4 2010 = 936 sq m - Projected GLA per 1,000 population in 2015 = 1690 sq m
existing and planned aBu dhaBi Malls ranKed By size
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Mall Yas Mall The Reem Mall Dalma Mall Marina Mall Madinat Zayed (Shopping Centre & Gold Centre) Deerfields Town Square National Investment Corporation Abi Dhabi Muncipality Mubarak and Brothers Investments LLC Owner ALDAR Properties PJSC NREC GLA (sq m) 296,000 260,000 150,000 115,000 97,290 Open in 2012f 2013f 2010 2001 1999 ext 2011f 2011f

DEVElOPmEnt PIPElInE
The Urban Planning Councils (UPC) Plan Abu Dhabi 2030, forecasts strategic distribution of retail space across the extended city of Abu Dhabi, with the existing downtown, Al Reem Island, Capital District, Saadiyat Island and Yas Island representing the key retail locations over the long term. Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 predicts future retail supply to reach 4.1 million sq m to 2030. There are a large number of retail malls currently under construction including Yas Mall, Dalma Mall, Emporium at Central Market and Deerfields Town Square. New supply forecast to 2015 will add 905,486 sq m. Key projects under construction include: The Deerfields Town Square project which is expected to be completed by Q2 2011. Located at Al Bahia, with a GLA of 90,000 sq m, the mall includes circa 200 shops including a 10,000 sq m (107,000 sq ft) Carrefour hypermarket. Yas Mall on Yas Island is currently under construction with scheduled opening delayed until at least 2012. The mall has a GLA of 296,000 sq m, comprising 700 shops on 3 floors. Anchor stores are to include IKEA and Geant. Sun and Sky Towers on Reem Island are part of a Sorouh development scheduled for completion in 2010. A boutique shopping mall comprising 8,040 sq m will open in the platform link between the two towers, in early 2011. Abu Dhabis GLA per 1,000 population is set to increase by over 80% to 1,690 sq m by the end of 2015.

90,000

Marina Mall, Abu Dhabi

Malls around the eMirates: a shopping Centre inventory 2011

SHARJAH
ExIstInG suPPly
Retail in Sharjah has historically been focused on high street shops and traditional souks. Malls were introduced in Sharjah later than in Dubai. Sharjah has continued to remain in the shadows of larger and more established Dubai and Abu Dhabi. A number of the Souks, including the Gold Souk, have been refurbished or rebuilt. The retail offer tends to focus on the lower priced end of the market catering principally for local convenience needs. Three malls opened in 2001 - Sharjah Mega Mall, Sharjah City Centre and Sahara Centre - later followed by Al Taawun Mall, Anser Mall and Safeer Mall. Sharjahs most recent shopping centre, Union Mall, opened in December 2010.

- Existing supply at Q4 2010 (GLA) = 193,903 sq m - Pipeline supply to 2015 (GLA) = 29,700 sq m - Total supply in 2015 = 223,603 sq m - City population = 1,017,000 9 - Existing GLA per 1000 population at Q4 2010 = 191 sq m - Projected GLA per 1000 population in 2015 = 199 sq m existing and planned sharjah Malls ranKed By size
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Mall Safeer Mall Sahara Centre Mega Mall Sharaj City Centre Union Mall Owner Al Safeer Group Abdulrahman Buktatir & Saaed Gobash Citadel Properties Majid Al Futtaim Properties LLC GLA (sq m) 51,064 46,500* 44,593 37,896 7.850e Open in 2002 2002 2001 2001 2010

DEVElOPmEnt PIPElInE
The Sahara Center is planning a three level mall extension comprising of 120 new stores with construction expected to commence shortly. This may be delayed to coincide with the development of the Sahara City Project mixed use development.

*Existing size but additional 29,700 sq m planned

sharjah shopping Centre supply (opening date)

Sharjah City Centre (2001)

Mega Mall
(2001)

Safeer Mall
(2002)
Al Mamzar Shopping Centre
(2003)
Sahara Centre (2002 ext. 2015)

Source: Google Map Data 2010

Ministry of Economy, Abu Dhabi 2009

A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION 2011

UMM AL QUWAIN
- Existing supply at Q4 2010 (GLA) = 30,000 sq m - Pipeline supply to 2015 (GLA) = 0 sq m - Total supply in 2015 = 30,000 sq m - City population = 56,000 10 - Existing GLA per 1000 population at Q4 2010 = 536 sq m - Projected GLA per 1000 population in 2015 = 484 sq m existing and planned uMM al QuWain Malls ranKed By size
Rank 1 Mall Safeer Mall Owner Al Safeer Group GLA(sq m) 30,000 Open in 2008

Fujairah City Centre, is a development by Majid Al Futtaim located on the Masafi Highway and due to open in 2011. The letting space comprises of 30,000 sq m on one level. The project is being developed in partnership with the government owned Fujairah Investment Establishment.

AJMAN
- Existing supply at Q4 2010 (GLA) = 66,545 sq m - Pipeline supply to 2015 (GLA) = 78,387 sq m - Total supply in 2015 = 144,932 sq m - City population = 250,000 12 - Existing GLA per 1,000 population = 266 sq m - Projected GLA per 1,000 population = 524 sq m existing and planned ajMan Malls ranKed By size
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Mall Ajman Uptown Shopping Mall Ajman City Centre Dana Mall Safeer Mall Ajman Factory Mart Al Safeer Group Majid Al Futtaim Properties LLC 13,935 13,411 9,800 2010 2005 2005 29,399 1998 Owner GLA(sq m) 78,387 Open in 2013f

ExIstInG suPPly
Umm Al Quwain is one of the smallest and the least populated Emirates and therefore benefits from neighborhood retail provision as demand for shopping centres remains limited. The only mall currently present in the Emirate is Al Safeer Groups Safeer Mall which comprises 30,000 sq m, including a 7,500 sq m hypermarket, family entertainment centre, car parking and food court.

DEVElOPmEnt PIPElInE:
As far as we are aware there are no proposed retail developments for the next 5 years in Umm Al Quwain to 2015.

FUJAIRAH
-Existing supply at Q4 2010 (GLA) = 0 sq m -Pipeline supply to 2015 (GLA) = 56,070 sq m -Total supply in 2015 = 56,070 sq m -City population = 152,000 11 -Existing GLA per 1,000 population at Q4 2010 = 0 sq m -Projected GLA per 1,000 population in 2015 = 334 sq m existing and planned Fujairah Malls ranKed By size
Rank 1 2 Mall Fujairah City Centre Safeer Mall Owner Majid Al Futtaim Properties LLC Al Safeer Group GLA(sq m) 30,000 26,070 Open in 2011f 2011f

ExIstInG suPPly
Ajman is the smallest Emirate by area. It followed the success of Dubai and became the second Emirate to offer freehold property. This attracted significant international investor interest and has led to the development or proposed development of a number of large scale retail projects. Many of these projects will be located in New Ajman, outside of the city of Ajman, close to the Emirates Road. Existing retail supply includes Ajman City Centre, which is located on the main road from Sharjah to Ras Al Khaimah and Safeer Mall Ajman, located opposite Ajman University and anchored by Safeer Hypermarket. Other malls include Dana Mall with 200 retail shops on 3 floors and Ajman Factory Mart.

DEVElOPmEnt PIPElInE
Many projects in Ajman are on hold or progressing very slowly. The planned Bin Ghedayer expansion of Dana Mall will cost AED 200m, including a hotel, and is due for completion by 2013. The 78,387 sq m Ajman Uptown Shopping Mall, part of the Uptown Ajman project by Sweet Homes is due to be delivered in the first half of 2013.

ExIstInG suPPly
Aside from small community centres and supermarkets there are currently no shopping centres intt Fujairah.

PIPElInE
Safeer Mall Fujairah is currently under construction and is expected to comprise 26,070 sq m including a 9,290 sq m Safeer Hypermarket, 100 additional retail outlets and food court.

10 11 12

Ministry of Economy, Abu Dhabi 2009 Ministry of Economy, Abu Dhabi 2009 Ministry of Economy, Abu Dhabi 2009 7

Malls around the eMirates: a shopping Centre inventory 2011

RAS AL KHAIMAH
- Existing supply at Q4 2010 (GLA) = 92,101 sq m - Pipeline supply to 2015 (GLA) = 104,000 sq m - Total supply in 2015 = 196,101 sq m - City population = 241,000 13 - Existing GLA per 1,000 population at Q4 2010 = 382 sq m - Projected GLA per 1,000 population = 736 sq m existing and planned raK Malls ranKed By size
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Mall Manar Mall RAK Mall Safeer Mall Al Hamra Mall Mall of Ras Al Khaimah Owner HH Sheikh Saud Bin Saqr Al Qasimi Line Invetments & Property LLC Al Safeer Group HH Sheikh Saud Bin Saqr Al Qasimi GLA (sq m) 44,100* 36,000 29,990 18,011 12,000e Open in 2000 ext. 2012f 2011f 2008 2010

AL AIN
- Existing supply at Q4 2010 (GLA) = 224,872 sq m - Pipeline supply to 2015 (GLA) = 30,000 sq m - Total supply in 2015 = 254,872 sq m - City population = 530,299 15 - Existing GLA per 1000 population = 424 sq m - Projected GLA per 1000 population = 435 sq m existing and planned al ain Malls ranKed By size
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 2012f Mall Bawadi Mall Ai Ain Mall Al Jimi Mall Wahat Hili Al Foah Mall Owner Nael & Bin Hamal Investment Co. Al Farida Investments ALDAR Properties PJSC Sultan Bin Rashed Saeed Al Dhaheri Line Investments & Property LLC GLA (sq m) 110,000 45,445 43,427 30,000 26,000 Open in 2009 2001 2001 2011f 2008

*Existing size but additional 56,000 sq m planned

ExIstInG suPPly
Al Ain is the second largest city in the Abu Dhabi Emirate and the fourth largest city in the UAE. Many Emirati nationals in Abu Dhabi have holiday homes in Al Ain and the city is developing as a tourist destination. Al Ain is an important services centre for a wide area extending into Oman. There are three main malls in Al Ain Al Ain Mall in the town center, Al-Jimi Mall in the Al-Jimi district, and Bawadi Mall located in the Al-Khrair District. Bawadi Mall announced that it received more than 700,000 visitors in October 2010, representing a significant increase of 21% over the corresponding period last year.

ExIstInG suPPly
Ras Al Khaimah is located in the northern part of the UAE bordering Oman. The Western part, known as "old Ras Al Khaimah", comprises government departments, educational institutions, shopping malls, hotels and residential areas. The Eastern part, known as Al Nakheel, houses the Emiri Court, government departments, markets, Ras Al Khaimah Exhibition Center, hospitals and houses the majority of the city's population.14 The city is rapidly reinventing itself as a tourism hub. Both the Al Hamra Mall, which sits inside the Al Hamra Village development, and Safeer Mall, in the local community area of Kharan, work well as community shopping malls and are catering to the steady rise in retail spending in RAK.

DEVElOPmEnt PIPElInE
Based on currently available data, the only shopping centre in the pipeline to 2015 is the 30,000 sq m Wahat Mall which is due to be delivered in 2011. Due to the citys proximity to Abu Dhabi, the majority of the population are likely to continue visiting the capital to source their retail requirements however as Al Ain becomes increasingly established as a tourist destination, it is likely that retail demand will increase and further projects may be announced in the next few years.

DEVElOPmEnt PIPElInE
Manar Mall in the Nakheel area of RAK is currently being extended. An additional 56,000 sq m (due for completion in 2012) will make it the largest shopping centre in the Emirate. The Mall of Ras Al Khaimah, which is part of the WOW RAK theme park development, is expected to open in 2012.

13

Ministry of Economy, Abu Dhabi 2009 14 Government of Ras Al Khaimah 15 Abu Dhabi Statistics Year Book 2010

A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION 2011

INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARKS
Average shopping centre provision per 1,000 inhabitants across the 27 European Union Countries now stands at 231 sq m, according to C&Ws Shopping Centre Development Report Europe (Sept 2010). Current shopping centre GLA accounts for 46.9 per cent of total retail space in the United States. This equates to 1,028 sq m per 1,000 population. gla (sQ M) per 1000 population
Location Dubai United States Abu Dhabi Umm Al Quwain Al Ain Ras Al Khaimah Ajman EU - 27 Sharjah Fujairah
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research 2010

compete with new destination malls.

aCtIVE assEt manaGEmEnt

Owners and managers of shopping malls will have to consider implementing active management strategies to re-align their properties to retain value. Some underperforming shopping centres may be redeveloped or even in some cases converted to other uses as has been witnessed in US and European markets.

lOCal shOPPInG
Neighbourhood malls targeting local communities and providing essential services are expected to dominate their sectors and to perform well. The development of community-led retail establishments or smaller community shopping malls could offer a window of opportunity for the retail sector, particularly in markets such as Dubai. The nature of the traditional shopping experience in Arab culture, implies that a mall that doubles as a neighbourhood centre stands a better chance of cornering loyal clientele.

2010 GLA (SQ M) per 1,000 population 1,386 1,028 936 536 424 382 266 231 191 0

2015 GLA (sq m) per 1,000 population 1,261 1,690 484 235 736 524 199 334

EnD Of an ERa
There is unlikely to be sufficient demand for another mall in Dubai in the immediate short term, implying the end of an era for rapid new supply of wide-scale shopping space.

REGulatIOn
In the future, regulators will need to be stricter in issuing licences for new malls and shopping centres, to ensure that supply is aligned with demand.

KEY TRENDS IN THE UAE RETAIL MARKET

tEnant mIx
Brand diversification and integration of leisure amenities will become increasingly crucial as more supply enters the UAE market.

CONCLUSION
Led by Dubai, all seven Emirates are now working actively on retail development projects to service their local markets as well as to attract visitors from outside their immediate region. Despite the likely curtailment of the development of large scale retail malls in the city, Dubai will continue to be a hub for the regions retail brands, especially for those at the luxury end of the market. Retail growth will continue hand in hand with tourism development, particularly in areas like Abu Dhabi which have ambitious plans for increasing visitor numbers and are still relatively undersupplied with shopping malls. Dubais GLA per 1,000 population currently exceeds that of the United States by approximately 35 per cent and is equivalent to six times the European average. If all planned supply proceeds, Abu Dhabis GLA per 1,000 population will have exceeded that of Dubai by 2015, With limited pipeline supply in Dubai and Abu Dhabi shopping centre supply set to more than double, the focal point for retail in the UAE may well be set to shift. Whilst benchmarking against regions with active high street retail provision may not provide a true reflection of the current situation in the UAE, these statistics do indicate that a number of the Emirates are starting to reach saturation point.

fRanChIsE
Local and international retailers have begun expanding within the region, many through partnerships using a franchise model due to government regulations. Some local retailers are also considering expansion into Europe and America.

maRkEtInG
Participation in shopping events like Dubai Shopping Festival continue to play an important role in the ongoing success of a centre, helping to increase footfall both from the local population and tourists. The evolution of the shopping resort concept, incorporating leisure amenities will also continue to drive footfall.

PIPElInE
Current market conditions are likely to impact on some of the more speculative retail developments, particularly due to limited liquidity and the difficulty in obtaining finance.

REDEVElOPmEnt
Smaller and older malls will need to consider re-positioning themselves to appeal to specific market segments in order to

Malls around the eMirates: a shopping Centre inventory 2011

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