Integrated Climate Impact Assessment Tool for Urban Policy Makers: Expert Consultations @ ADB

Mainstreaming Climate Impact Considerations into Development Planning

Introduction of JICA Climate Finance Impact Tool JICA Climate-FIT
August 8, 2011 Kyosuke INADA

Advisor, Climate Change, Global Environment Department, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

Key Messages to Participating Experts

Adaptation and Good Development

- How is adaptation different from good development? - What are the consequences of integrating climate impact considerations into development planning --- does it lead to substantial changes in planned actions or used mainly for confirmation of the adaptation effects?

Application of Impact / Vulnerability Assessment

- To what extent and how precisely should we measure and take into account the impact of future climate (change) when formulating projects --- only for special adaptation actions or wider application to development actions in general? - What methodologies are feasible for incorporating future lowprobability but catastrophic risk in policy decision making?

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) JICA Climate-FIT Draft Ver. 1.0 June 2011
JICA has prepared Climate Finance Impact Tool (JICA Climate-FIT), a reference document which contains the following components in order to facilitate consideration of policies and formulation of projects for assisting climate change related measures in developing countries. 1. Mitigation (25 sub-sectors) Methodologies for MRV related to evaluation of GHG emission reduction 2. Adaptation (15 sub-sectors) Concepts and guidelines for mainstreaming adaptation considerations into projects that contribute to reduction of vulnerability against climate change, and sustaining and increasing adaptive capacity and resilience

http://www.jica.go.jp/english/operations/ climate_change/index.html

Framework of JICA Climate-FIT / Adaptation

Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 Review of Existing Resources Chapter 5 Basic Concept and Guidelines for Adaptation Measures Structure of Sub-sector Profiles Chapter 3 Definitions and Steps in Adaptation Planning Identification of Adaptation Projects
The Basic Concept Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation Project and Business-as-Usual (BAU) Development with Adaptation Options Maladaptation Evaluation and Monitoring Required Data
1) Basic Concept i) General concept ii) Vulnerability iii) Adaptation iv) Maladaptation 2) Adaptation Project Guideline i) General concept ii) Vulnerability assessment iii) Project evaluation of adaptation measures iv) Necessary consideration for planning of adaptation measures v) Required data 3) BAU Development with Adaptation Options Guideline i) General concept ii) Vulnerability assessment (risk and change) iii) Planning adaptation options iv) Project evaluation of adaptation options v) Necessary consideration for planning of adaptation options vi) Required data Disaster Management 6.Flood control 7.Coastal protection 8.Sediment-related disaster prevention Agriculture 9.Information system 2.Irrigation and drainage Urban-regional Development 3.Enhancement of farm 10.Rural/urban development management Transportation 11.Bridge, road and railway Forestry / natural resources conservation 12.Port and airport Sanitary Improvement 4.Forest preservation, 13.Water supply afforestation 14.Sewerage and drainage 5.Ecosystem integrity 15.Medical healthcare Understanding future climate change Water Resources 1.Water resources

Chapter 4 Selection of Target Sub-sectors

Categorization of Typical Adaptation Measures Past JICA ODA Loan Projects
(Classification of yen loan projects from 1995 to 2010)

Integration of Detailed Classifications into Target Sub-sectors Trends of Projects by Other Donors Selection of Target Sub-sectors

Target Sub-sectors (15)

JICA Climate-FIT / Adaptation - Basic Concept

Adaptation Projects Business-as-usual (BAU) Development with Adaptation Options
Projects which are not mainly aimed to reduce the vulnerability, but is designed to adapt to the impacts of the climate change in achieving its main objective

Projects formed to reduce the climate change vulnerability in the existing system

Guideline for each sub-sector

Projects that fall between these two types of projects (Drawing a clear line between the two types is not possible in the real world)

Guideline for each sub-sector

Adaptation Projects
Projects formed to reduce the climate change vulnerability in the existing system such as projects to improve existing facility to cope with the increased vulnerability caused by the change of external forcing due to climate change.
Yield reduction due to
climate change = vulnerability Yield Present Without Project With Project Project compensating for yield reduction = adaptation

Project benefit

Adaptation benefit

BAU Development with Adaptation Options

Projects which are not mainly aimed to reduce the vulnerability, but is designed to adapt to the impacts of the climate change in achieving its main objective, such as development and rehabilitation of infrastructure projects that are planned or designed with consideration to increasing external forcing stemming from climate change.
Expected yield increase in project Expected yield reduction due to climate change = vulnerability Compensating the expected shortfall

= adaptation options

Yield

Adaptation benefit
Project benefit

With Present Project

In absence of climate change

With Project
With climate change

With Project

+ adaptation options

Example: Water Resource Sub-sector

(1) Basic Concept

Basic Concept
To maintain and improve the supply and demand of water against climate change impacts; such as reduction of imbalance of water availability and increase of water demand, through appropriate development, management, and utilization of water resources

Vulnerability
Major Climate Impacts
Reduction of Precipitation, Change of Precipitation Pattern, Increase / Intensification / Prolongation of Drought Concerns over shortage of water supply, water salinization

Adaptation Measures
Development / Extension / Reinforcement of
Surface Water Resource Facility Groundwater Resource Facility Water Conveyance Facility Water Treatment Facility

Increase / Intensification of Precipitation, Increase / Intensification of Extreme Events such as Cyclone Decrease of active capacity of dam reservoir (soil erosion increase), damage to water resource facilities (flood intensification)

Temperature Rise Increased water use, change in water availability and timing due to change in melting of glaciers Sea Level Rise Water salinization, High tide damage to seawater desalinization plant in coastal areas

Improvement of Water Management, Coordination of Water Use

Integrated Water Resources Management Reallocation of Water Rights

Maladaptation

Maladaptation caused by Adaptation Measures Additional water intake may bring about more serious influence to the water use for other purposes in that area Maladaptation in Business-as-usual Project Activities Change of future river runoff, water level of river and groundwater may exceed design capacity, influencing the safe, stable operation

Example: Water Resource Sub-sector

(2) Guideline for Adaptation Projects
Necessity of Adaptation
Climate change would bring imbalance between water supply and demand for existing water resource facilities, by change of precipitation and it pattern, increase of water demand due to temperature rise, etc. In addition, intensification of flood would damage the facilities.

Vulnerability Assessment
1) Past and Present Climate Trends and Risks 2) Future Exposure to Climate Hazards and Perturbations 3) Future Sensitivity to Climate Change 4) Determine Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change 5) Assess Vulnerability

Adaptation Measures
To increase the active capacity of reservoir by structural measures; heightening of dam, excavation of reservoir, etc., to increase the water resource by reduction of water leakage, water resource development, and water conveyance, and to reallocate and utilize water resource by improvement of dam management or integrated water resource management

Alternative Assessment Items in Monitoring and Review

Assessment Items in Project Formulation

-Future sensitivity to climate change -Flexibility to unaccounted climate impacts (water suppliers, water users, supply and demand adjustment mechanism) -Disaster resilience capability of regulatory agency -Availability and capability of research and development function

Outcome

-Improvement of target return period of newly developed and rehabilitated facilities -Improvement of target return period through improvement of water management -Changes in number of beneficiaries and stakeholders awareness

Impact of climate change for water resource sub-sector will be mitigated

Example: Water Resource Sub-sector

(3) Guideline for BAU Development with Adaptation Options
Necessity of Adaptation
As a result of socio-economic development, demand in the downstream area is expected to exceed the current water resource availability provided by dam reservoir, water intake at river, groundwater, etc. Anticipated climate change impacts are considered during development and expansion of water resource facilities to cope with changes in water availability due to precipitation change, temperature rise, intensified scale of flood, etc.

Vulnerability Assessment

Adaptation Options

Assess future exposure to climate hazards and perturbations

Projects will be implemented in consideration of future climate change influence.

Alternative Assessment Items in Monitoring and Review

-Improvement of target return period of newly developed and rehabilitated facilities -Improvement of target return period through improvement of water management -Changes in number of beneficiaries and stakeholders awareness

Assessment Items in Project Formulation

Outcome

-Future sensitivity to climate change

The expected water supply will be maintained in the event of climate change

Thank you for your attention.

Contact:
Kyosuke Inada (Mr.) Advisor, Climate Change Global Environment Department Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) E-mail: gegoc@jica.go.jp TEL: +81-3-5218-8470