Você está na página 1de 8

Global Research Limited

COMMODITY
Market

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Gold Gain On Low US Rates, Soft Dollar And Financial Concern


Premium
segment

www.capitalvia.com

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Economic Data
Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Fundamental Market Overview


Market
watch GOLD EASES FROM RECORD HIGH AFTER CME MARGIN HIKE
peaks of 1980 and the 1930s, and Gold is still below its inflationadjusted record near $2,500. Gold eased on Thursday from the session's record highs after the CME Group raised margins on COMEX Gold futures, but turmoil in the global financial markets and fears of slower growth buoyed sentiment. Spot Gold hit an all-time high of $1,813.79, and U.S. Gold GCcv1 rose to a record high of $1,817.6 early in the day. Both eased after the CME Group raised margins on U.S. Gold futures by 22.2 percent, driving spot Gold down to $1,787.61 an ounce by 0624 GMT, off 0.4 percent from the previous close. U.S. Gold traded up 0.3 percent at $1,789.90. Gold has proven too much of an attraction as an alternative investment and the margins may not have as much influence. On the relative strength index, spot Gold fell to 82.7, suggesting a heavily overbought market, although the index was off its earlier level near 86, the highest since October 2010. The rapid rise in prices has prompted concern of a price retracement. Gold's safe-haven allure has attracted investors fleeing the risk of debt crisis contagion in Europe and slowing global growth. Prices of cash Gold have risen as much as 21 percent since the end of June. Stock market woes have helped push Gold's ratio to the S&P-500 stock index to its highest since 1988. But that ratio remains far below its

Mon Aug 15

6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 11:30pm

USD USD USD USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index TIC Long-Term Purchases NAHB Housing Market Index Loan Officer Survey

0.5 30.4B

-3.8 24.2B 15

Tue Aug 16

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:45pm 6:45pm

USD USD USD USD USD

Building Permits Housing Starts Import Prices m/m Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m

0.61M 0.60M 0.0% 77.0% 0.5%

0.62M 0.63M -0.5% 76.7% 0.2%

Market
watch

NYMEX-CRUDE DOWN A THIRD WEEK ON ECONOMIC WORRY


trading between $84.02 to $87.37. For the week, the front-month contract was down $1.50, or 1.73 percent, from the $86.88 closes on Aug. 5, losing for a third consecutive week. UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS New York Fed releases its Empire State (NY) Manufacturing Survey for August, 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT), Monday. National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo issues August housing market index, 10 p.m. EDT (1400 GMT), Monday.

Wed Aug 17

6:00pm 6:00pm 8:00pm

USD USD USD

PPI m/m Core PPI m/m Crude Oil Inventories

0.0% 0.2%

-0.4% 0.3% -5.2M

U.S. Crude oil futures ended lower on Friday and snapped two days of gains as a slump in consumer confidence reversed an early rally spurred by a jump in July retail sales. Crude futures also closed the week lower, down for the third straight week, as the consumer confidence data added to fears that the economy may slide back into recession after last week's U.S. credit downgrade. Prices rose early after data showed U.S. retail sales rose in July to the highest level since March. Oil markets tracked Wall Street, which rose on the retail sales data but fell back on the consumer pulse report, though in late trading share prices managed to eke out small gains. FUNDAMENTALS

Thu Aug 18

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:05pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims CPI m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Existing Home Sales Philly Fed Manufacturing Index CB Leading Index m/m Natural Gas Storage

0.2% 403K 0.2%

0.3% 395K -0.2%

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for September delivery settled at $85.38 a barrel, edging down 34 cents, or 0.4 percent, after

Market
watch

COPPER POSTS 2ND STRAIGHT WEEKLY LOSS, TIN RALLIES


benchmark Copper eased $16 to end at $8,865 a tonne, but managed to claw back from a weekly trough at $8,446.25, it's lowest since early December of last year. In New York, the key September COMEX contract eked out a 0.35-cent gain to settle at $4.0120 per lb, supported by a firmer tone in equity markets and mildly encouraging retail sales in July, which helped to offset the weak consumer sentiment data. A slowdown in China rail investments, reports that China is cutting its target for the construction of public homes and the general impact of its tightening measures have all fueled concerns about the outlook for metals demand.

4.92M 4.2 0.2%

4.77M 3.2 0.3% 25B

Fri Aug 18

6:00pm

USD

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

London Copper prices ended a shade lower on Friday as global economic growth fears lingered and Chinese demand prospects remained unclear, but Copper in New York crept up with equities to end less than a penny higher from the previous session. With investors still worried about the global economy, losses stretched across the base metals complex, continuing the overwhelmingly bearish broader market tone over the past two weeks. The exception was tin, which rallied as much as 5 percent at one point during the session on worries about restricted supplies from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter. Copper posted its first back-to-back weekly decline since early June, with total weekly trading volumes in New York up near their lateFebruary record of 319,000 lots. Despite the global economic turmoil, Diego Hernandez, the chief executive of Chile's giant Copper miner Codelco, remained "optimistic" that Copper prices will remain at current levels until year-end, eyeing an uptick in second-half Chinese Copper cathode imports. Looking ahead into the coming week, metals are likely to remain tied to fluctuations in equities markets and could be affected by a stream of U.S. housing data. Short-term direction is likely to be muddied by thin trading during widespread holidays in most of mainland Europe on Monday. London Metal Exchange (LME)

[2]

[3]

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

GOLD

SILVER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2019 1883 1812 1747 1677 1611 1475

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold was break the level of 1800$ an ounce but was not able to made a weekly close above that. In the coming week 1700 $ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold. If COMEX Gold sustains above 1720 $ an ounce then above 1785$ an ounce it can touch the level of 1815$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1725$ then it can go slightly down and test the level of 1698$ an ounce.

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver is in an upward consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Silver was neither sustain on higher levels not nor at lower levels. For the upcoming week 3700$ and 3480$ are the crucial supports and 4040$ and 4220$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 61000 and 63000 will act as major resistance and 56500 and 54000 will act as major supports.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4559 4222 4066 3884 3729 3547 3209

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1720 $ an ounce, then above 1785$ it can test the level of 1815$ an ounce and above 1820$ it can further move upward. And in MCX Gold above 26100 it can test the level of 26400.Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1680$ and 1640$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1820$ and 1860$ Major support in MCX Gold is 25350 and 24700 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 26400 and 26900

STRATEGY
Technically COMEX Silver is consolidating on charts. For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if Silver sustains below the level of 3700$ an ounce, then it can test the level of 4120$ and 4220$ an ounce and below 3700$ it can move slightly downwards and test the level of 3600$ an ounce. And in MCX Silver sustains above 57800 it can test the level of 61000/62200 and below 56500 it can test the level of 55000. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

[4]

Weekly Chart

[5]

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

CRUDE

COPPER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 106.14 94.48 89.93 82.82 78.27 71.16 59.50

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
NYMEX Crude is in consolidation phase. Last week Crude oil was neither sustaining at lower level nor at higher levels. For the coming week 75$ and 70$ will act as major supports and 101$ and 104.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4250 and 4450 and major supports will be 3690 and 3500.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was consolidating for most part of the week. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 390 then above the level of 403 Copper can test the level of 410. In MCX Copper sustains above 393 then it can test the level of 408/410 if it does not break the level of 390 on the downside.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 459 429 415 398 384 367 337

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of 80 $ a barrel then can slightly come up and touch the level of 89.6 $ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains above 3770 then it can test the level of 4100 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 421 and 436 will act as major resistance and 390 and 380 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 417 and 433 and supports would be found at 390 and 380.

[6]

Weekly Chart

[7]

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

NATURAL GAS

USD / INR

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4.595 4.307 4.184 4.019 3.896 3.731 3.443

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was up for most part of the week and made a close above 4$. If next week Natural Gas sustains above the level of 3.900 $ then above the level of 4.140$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.230 $ and below 3.850 $ Natural Gas can go down and test the level of 3.720 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above 176 in the coming week then it can test the level of 190, if it does not break the level of 175 on the downside.

MARKET OVERVIEW
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lower levels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.8500 then above the level of 44.4500 USD/INR can test the level of 44.7800.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 46.8600 46.0000 45.6900 45.1400 44.8300 44.2800 43.4200

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 43.8500 and 43.6000 will act as major supports and 46.0500 and 46.4500 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 3.800$ and 3.600$ will act as major supports and 4.500$ and 4.830$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 202 and 215, supports would be found at 170 and 162.

Weekly Chart

[8]

[9]

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch


Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX

5 -OCT -11 5-SEP -11 30-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 26-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LEAD NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. / 10GM. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS/QUINTAL RS. / BBL. RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

24651 58379 399.35 3843 176.1 103.45 95.55 990.1 105.7

24700 58770 399.95 3830 174.6 104.2 95.65 993.6 104.85

26457 60499 409.9 3958 188 109.8 99.75 1016.7 109.65

24700 56785 387.1 3543 173 99.1 91.7 951.7 104.1

25688 58718 402.25 3896 184.6 107.95 98.2 978.1 108.4

488773 474646 674561 1469105 130873 97499 115438 315296 31137

1037 339 2.9 53 8.5 4.5 2.65 -12 2.7

11707 13762 17085 19542 7776 2363 2808 6583 1834

12585141.38 8324092.03 2697086.04 5500345.69 297669.63 511656.01 557580.48 773318.08 168715.15

* Turnover Till Friday

[ 10 ]

[ 11 ]

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch


International Market
Commodity
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS USD/INR

Weekly Pivots
Closing Price
1742.6 3911.4 401.2 85.38 4.06 45.39

% Change
5.50 2.36 -2.55 -1.73 3.02 1.52

Scripts
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

R3
29129.00 66095.33 445.35 4629.00 211.87 127.02 112.65 1112.17 118.48

R2
27372.00 62381.33 422.55 4214.00 196.87 116.32 104.60 1047.17 112.93

R1
26530.00 60549.67 412.40 4055.00 190.73 112.13 101.40 1012.63 110.67

PP
25615.00 58667.33 399.75 3799.00 181.87 105.62 96.55 982.17 107.38

S1
24773.00 56835.67 389.60 3640.00 175.73 101.43 93.35 947.63 105.12

S2
23858.00 54953.33 376.95 3384.00 166.87 94.92 88.50 917.17 101.83

S3
22101.00 51239.33 354.15 2969.00 151.87 84.22 80.45 852.17 96.28

Weekly Gainers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 184.60 107.95 25688 % Change 4.83 4.35 4.21

Weekly Losers
Commodity NICKEL Expiry Date 30-AUG -11 Closing Price 978.10 % Change -1.21

Disclaimer
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Investment in Stocks has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Analyst or any person related to CapitalVia might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken. Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved.

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG -11 LEAD GOLD 30-AUG -11 05-OCT -11

[ 12 ]

[ 13 ]

Contact Us
Contact Number: Hotline: +91-91790-02828 Landline: +91-731-668000 Fax: +91-731-4238027
You Can Send Us DD & Communication @ Postal Address: CapitalVia Global Research Limited No. 99, 1st Floor, Surya Complex, R. V. Road, Basavanagudi Opposite Lalbagh West Gate Bangalore - 560004

India:
CapitalVia Global Research Limited No. 506 West, Corporate House 169, R. N. T. Marg, Near D. A. V. V. Indore - 452001

Singapore:
CapitalVia Global Research Pvt. Ltd. Block 2 Balestier Road #04-665 Balestier Hill Shopping Centre Singapore - 320002

Corporate Office Address: No. 99, 1st Floor, Surya Complex R. V. Road, Basavangudi Opposite Lalbagh West Gate Bangalore - 560004

www.capitalvia.com