THAILAND

STRATEGY NOTE

18 AUGUST 2011

Siam Senses
Economic stabilizers
Thailand isnt immune to a weaker global economy and we expect slower GDP growth. However, its structural growth stories remain intact with economic stabilizers of an early end to the rate hike cycle, the third (populist) stimulus and stabilizing oil prices. The consumption boom continues despite potential short-term SET volatility.
PIMPAKA NICHGAROON, CFA Head of Research
662 617 4900 pimpaka.nic@thanachartsec.co.th

Thanachart Securities Thanachart Securities

Thailand isnt immune so GDP growth will slow

The most direct impact from the western slowdown will be via exports but the deceleration wont be severe as Thai exports are structurally competitive, staying solid through multiple years of concerns about a strengthening baht and weak western growth. While the US and Europe account for only 20% to total exports, the resilient agri & foods sector and intra-region trade keep gaining ground. We cut our export growth assumptions from 9% to 6% in 2012F and 7% to 6% in 2013F. We also lower our inventory build-up in GDP projections in 2011-13. That leads to our new GDP growth forecasts of 4.5% and 4.0% in 2011-12 versus prior projections of 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively.

Top Picks
-EPS growth11F (%) ADVANC* BANPU BGH CPALL DTAC IVL KSL KTB 9.2 20.0 40.1 20.2 8.0 101.3 962.7 50.7 30.1 81.4 12F (%) (10.9) 33.4 20.7 24.8 (26.1) 6.0 22.4 20.2 17.4 18.2 PE 11F (x) 14.1 15.3 24.4 27.7 14.2 13.0 14.5 1.6 ** 2.2 ** 14.0 12F (x) 15.8 11.5 20.2 22.2 19.2 12.3 11.9 1.4 ** 2.0 ** 11.8 Yield 11F (%) 7.1 3.2 1.8 2.9 8.8 1.7 1.6 4.0 3.3 2.2

Room for economic adjustments to stabilize growth

In the wake of slower global growth, in Thailand we see a few economic adjustments that will help sustain growth. 1) Stabilizing commodities prices, peaking inflation and a strengthening currency can bring forward the end of the rate hike cycle. 2) Lower oil prices without a soft commodities price crash (stickier demand) would be positive for Thailand. 3) The third stimulus via aggressive populist policies is on its way and tamer inflation will make its implementation easier. 4) With the government able to continue providing an easy credit environment and farm price support, the consumption boom will keep on going.

SCB TUF

Stock taken out BBL 13.0 16.2 1.2 ** 1.1 ** 2.7

Source: Thanachart estimates Note: * New addition **P/BV

Good Ad Hoc Names

-EPS growth11F (%) 12F (%) 24.4 32.9 25.0 14.7 15.2 PE 11F (x) 24.6 29.2 24.9 11.3 12.0 12F (x) 19.8 22.0 19.9 9.9 10.4 Yield 11F (%) 2.0 1.0 3.2 4.0 4.6

Structural growth stories prevail

The SET is likely to follow global markets, exhibiting tremendous volatility over the short term with a lack of conviction. But when the dust settles, Thailand will see its structural growth and middle-income transition stories prevail. Consumption and investment growth are expected to continue while exports, albeit slower, wont crash given larger exposure to intra-region growth. Government spending will continue with the new administration insisting on extreme populism given a potential new election in the next 12-18 months. Populist policies have long-term risk but they wont blow up for the next few years (see Siam Senses Front-loaded growth, dated 29 July).

BIGC GLOBAL MAKRO RS SAMART

31.8 22.6 27.9 (4.9) 94.6

Source: Thanachart estimates

SET Downside Scenarios

(SET Index) Witho ut a real c ris is , there 1100 900 700 500 300 Crisis 8x Worst V olatility Panic w ith 20% panic 8x sw ing sw ing prof it cut but no 1STD 10x 2STD 9x real crisis
sho uld be dem and suppo rt at this lev el

980 650 800

890

Short-term volatility, long-term value

Having outperformed the MSCI ex-Japan Index by 39% in 2010-11, the SET may fall victim to short-term global market volatility despite its outperformance being justified by earnings growth of 36% in 2010 and 33% in 1H11. SET downside scenarios are 650 (another global financial crisis), 800 (historical low PE of 8x but no crisis), 890 (panic swing of 2STD or at 9x PE) and 980 (the most reasonable short-term volatility of 1STD or 10x PE). Short-term volatility could push back our year-end index target of 1,300 but we still believe the SET is on a longterm uptrend and it isnt expensive at <11x 2012F PE. We maintain our position of no oil stocks and cut bank exposure (BBL) on a flattening yield curve and soon-to-end rate hikes. ADVANC is now in.

Source: Thanachart estimates

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PIMPAKA NICHGAROON

Existing economic stabilizers

Some slowdown in growth but no change to structural story

Thailand is unlikely to be immune to whats happening in western economies but without the scenario of another global financial crisis (not what we are assuming anyway), economic foundations arent expected to be undermined and the countrys long-term growth path of a new economic cycle remains intact. In this report, Siam Senses discusses economic adjustments for Thailand in the wake of the slowdown in the US and Europe. Before we discuss the economic adjustment factors that will help sustain Thailands structural growth story, here are our new GDP growth forecasts. The most direct impact from the western slowdown is via exports but the deceleration wont be severe as Thai exports are structurally competitive, staying solid through multiple years of concerns over the strengthening baht and weak western growth. While the US and Europe account for only 20% of total exports, the resilient agri & foods sector and intra-region trade keep gaining ground. We cut our export growth assumptions from 9% to 6% in 2012F and 7% to 6% in 2013F. We also lower inventory build-up in GDP in 2011-13F. That leads to our new GDP growth forecasts of 4.5% and 4.0% in 2011-12 versus the old ones of 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively. What are the economic adjustment factors or stabilizers that will help maintain Thailands growth path?

GDP growth cut from 4.6% and 4.4% in 201112F to 4.5% and 4.0%

Tamer inflation can put an end to rate hikes or even lead to rates being cut if needed

First, inflationary pressure will soon ease on the back of stabilizing commodities prices and a strengthening baht. We cut our inflation forecast from 4.1% to 3.7% in 2012 while maintaining 4.1% growth in 2011F. This will bring forward the end of the rate hike cycle. While the market is still looking for a 3.75% policy rate (from the current 3.25%) at the end of this year, we keep our 3.50% expectation with a rate pause into 2012 (versus our earlier forecast of another 50bp rise to 4.0% at the end of 2012). Exhibit 1 below shows that if growth falters more than expected, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) actually has a lot of room to cut rates.

Ex 1: Inflation And Policy Rate Paths

(%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 (2) (4) (6) Jan-04 Apr-05 Jul-06 Oct-07 Jan-09 Apr-10 1 0 Jul-11 CPI (LHS) Core CPI (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
Inflation peaking out, thus rate hikes are coming to an early end. We expect only another 25bp to 3.5%in 201 and staying 1 flat into 201 2

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(%) 6 5 4 3 2

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Ministry of Commerce

Thailand is on to its third stimulus package before any other country

Second, Thailand is, with the now-installed Yingluck Shinawatra government, poised for a new set of extreme populist policies which we prefer to call the third stimulus package (after #1 in 2009 and #2 Thai Kem Kaeng in 2010-11). One of the main concerns about the policies is that they will spur inflationary pressure. But with slower global growth bringing down inflation, policy implementation will be easier. We believe the new government will insist on its extreme populism given a potential new election in the next 12-18 months to bring the banned proThaksin Shinawatra camp politicians (the ban will end in May 2012) back to the forefront of the political arena. That will raise the chance that the Pheu Thai (PT) party will win even more seats in the House than now. Together with the potential merger of smaller parties into PT,

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350 seats in the next election wouldnt come as a surprise to us. Populist policies do have an inherent long-term risk but this shouldnt blow up for the next few years. Please refer to our view on this in Siam Senses Front-loaded growth, dated 29 July. In that report, we calculated the room for extra spending at another 3.6% of GDP.

Ex 2: Room To Increase On-Budget Government Spending

(Bt m) Revenue Expense Deficit 2011F 1,830 2,070 240 2012 draft* 1,900 2,250 350 2012F** 2,090 2,520 430 Increase from 2011 260 450 190 Increase from 2012 draft 190 270 80

Ex 3: Off-Budget Room To Spend More Via SFIs

(%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Outstanding loans to GDP (LHS) LDR (RHS) SFIs can spend Bt150bn in addition to the Bt200bn above normal level w ithout a change in the loan to GDP ratio (%) 170 150 130 110 90 70 50

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Sources: Ministry of Finance, Thanachart estimates Note: * Approved draft by the Abhisit Vejjajiva government, ** Room for the new government to spend

Ex 4: Total Room To Spend More Is 3.6% Of GDP

(Bt bn) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 On-budget Off-budget via SFIs Total 1.3 270 2.3 150 Additional spending (LHS) % to GDP (RHS) 420 3.6 (%) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Manageable LDR ratio too

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Thanachart estimates Note: SFIs include the Government Savings Bank, Government Housing Bank, Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, Export-Import Bank, SME Development Bank and Islamic Bank.

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F

Source: Thanachart estimates

Lower oil prices without a soft commodities price crash is positive for Thailand

Third, lower oil prices without a soft commodities price crash (soft commodities demand is stickier with very tight and unreliable supply and less speculation than in the oil market) would be net positive for Thailand. Thailands net export balance is at a point where agriculture & foods and petrochemical exports are now ahead of net oil imports by nearly 9% compared with 3.3% 10 years ago. A potential QE3 or the like is more likely to provide support to oil prices rather than pushing them up to dangerously high levels of US$140-150/bbl. Without QE3 to help shore up the US, oil prices may fall much further.

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Ex 5: Far Better Net Commodities Balance

(% to GDP) 10 8 6 4 2 0 (2) (4) (6) (5.2) 2005 (2.6) 3.3 7.2 Petrochem exports minimum net oil imports Agri&food + petrochem exports minus net oil imports 8.7

Ex 6: Oil Imports To GDP

(%) 12 9.9 10 8 6 4 2 5.2 6.6 9.7 8.1 6.9 7.1 10.1 8.6

(3.2)

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2010

Annualized 1H11

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H11

Sources: Bank of Thailand; Thanachart estimates

Sources: Bank of Thailand; Thanachart estimates

Weaker exports but not a crash while falling oil imports are an offsetting factor

Fourth, the above points also relate to the point of weaker exports being offset to some degree by lower oil imports. As mentioned early on in this report, despite multiple years of concerns about a strengthening baht and weak growth in western economies, Thai exports have been resilient as they are structurally competitive. At 20% of total exports, weaker growth in the US and Europe will impact Thailand but not as much as before (29% five years ago), especially since agriculture & foods and intra-region trade is increasing. Agriculture & foods now account for 19% of total exports. On a regional basis, Asia makes up 59% of total exports and Asean comprises 23%. So, we only cut our export forecast from 9% to 6% in 2012 while we maintain our 16% estimate for 2011 (versus actual growth of 24% y-y in 1H11). As slower global growth has also brought down oil prices to a certain degree, we also lower our import growth projection from 12% to 9% in 2012 and maintain it at 18% in 2011F.

Ex 7: Large Export Exposure In Structurally Competitive Sectors

(% to total exports) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Electronics Petroleum & Petrochem Others Electrical appliances Vehicles Jewelry and minerals Agri & Food Textiles and footwear 22.8 22.3 26.2 19.9 Already low er exposure 18.9 13.5 12.8 10.6 2005 1H11 Structurally competitive sectors are now at 54% of total exports Already very low exposure 8.06.9 7.48.2 6.8 6.8 4.7 4.1

Source: Bank of Thailand

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Ex 8: Sharp Fall In Export Exposure To Weak Growth Regions

(% of total exports) 100 13.0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 34.6 41.7
A sia ex-Japan

Asia ex-Japan
Others Japan

US 15.8 13.6 13.6 15.3

Europe

Japan 22.8

Others
M o re new markets

14.7 16.3 21.3

Euro pe

Large fall in slow-growth markets from 52%to 31 %

10.9 10.9 9.5

US

45.9

Thanachart Securities

0 2000 2005 1H11

Source: Bank of Thailand

Easy money continues with consumption boom

Lastly, the government is likely to make sure the easy credit environment continues. Together with farm price support and good overall farm prices, the consumption boom will keep going. The strong domestic economy and ample liquidity will help reduce the impact from external demand. Overall we expect Thailands structural growth and middle-income transition stories to remain intact with the already new consumption and investment cycles while government spending is in its fourth year of stimulus mode (stimulus #1 in 2009, #2 dubbed Thai Kem Kaeng in 2010-11 and #3 extreme populist policies).

Ex 9: Money Supply Growth Still Very Strong

(y-y%) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Broad m oney supply grow th

Ex 10: Domestic Economy Takes A Larger Share Of GDP

(% to GDP) 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 Domestic demand (LHS) Net exports (RHS) (% to GDP) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

2011F

2012F

Source: Bank of Thailand

Sources: Bank of Thailand; Thanachart estimates

Short-term volatility, long-term value

SET is now subject to short-term volatility and we explore potential short-term downside scenarios

Although we maintain our long-term bullish view on the SET, we admit that it is now subject to short-term volatility so we feel the need to explore potential short-term downside scenarios (Exhibit 11) during this period of tremendous volatility in global markets. The SET has outperformed the MSCI ex-Japan Index by a combined 39% in 2010-11 and it could fall victim to short-term profit taking during this time of worldwide uncertainty. But we would also add that the SET has come up this far because of solid support from its strong earnings growth of 36% in 2010 and 33% in 2011F. And the SET isnt expensive yet at only 10.9x PE on 2012F earnings growth of 14%.

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2013F

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

STRATEGY NOTE

SIAM SENSES

PIMPAKA NICHGAROON

Another global financial crisis could bring the SET down to 650

The most severe hits to the SET were the 1998 Asian crisis and the 2008 global financial meltdown where the SETs forward PE was pushed down to around 8x on revised-down earnings. If such a severe crisis occurs again, we see the worst-case scenario for the SET being a fall to 650 points on 8x PE with a 20% cut in 2012F earnings. But as we dont expect another crisis of that magnitude, slashing earnings isnt necessary and if the SET falls to trade at its historical low 8x PE with our current earnings projection, the SET would be at 800 points. That said, without a real crisis, the SET is unlikely to fall to 8x because there would be demand for stocks to support the market before it drops to that level. Given a 10-year average PE of 12x, we dont expect market volatility to bring the SET down below 10x PE or 980 points. The other way we can look at how far short-term market volatility might bring the SET down is short-term market standard deviation. Using PE going back to only January 2010, a downswing of 1STD implies 10x 2012F PE with the SET at 980 points while a panic swing of 2STD implies 9x PE with the SET at 890 points. Having said all that, longer term we still believe the SET is on an uptrend with continued support from a new economic cycle and earnings growth. Neither is the SET expensive at 10.9x 2012F PE. Our bottom-up year-end index target is still 1,300 but we admit there may be some downside in the event: 1) oil prices fall further and pull down oil sector valuations; and 2) theres a delayed effect from a temporary lack of conviction in global markets given uncertainties facing the US and Europe.

But we think a more reasonable short-term downside level is only 980 1STD downswing is at 980 and a panic 2STD is at 890

Longer term the SET is still on an uptrend but our 1,300 target maybe delayed from this year

Ex 11: SET Downside Scenarios

(SET Index) 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 Crisis 8x w ith 20% profit cut
Source: Thanachart estimates

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Ex 12: Market PE Short-term Standard Deviation

(x) 14
890

Without a real crisis, there should be demand support at this level 800 650

980

13 12 11 10 9

+2 STD = 12.8x +1 STD = 11.8x Average = 10.9x -1 STD = 10x -2 STD = 9x

May-10

May-11

Mar-10

Feb-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Sep-10

Sources: SET; Thanachart estimates

Still very heavy in domestic-based, consumption-related stocks

Our market positioning is reflected in our 10 country stock picks. We have been heavy in domestic-based and consumption-related sectors (DTAC, TUF, KSL, CPALL and BGH) and that position remains unchanged. We actually add one more consumption-related telecom play ADVANC to the list. We are very heavy in that area in our ad hoc recommendations as well (BIGC, MAKRO, GLOBAL, RS and SAMART). We continue to maintain our position of no oil stocks in our top picks at this point. There are two stocks that have performed poorly in the top picks but we keep them in i.e. BANPU and IVL. While IVL posted disappointing 2Q11 earnings BANPUs were weak in both 1Q-2Q11. Given that 1) share prices have already come down to reflect that and 2) earnings turnarounds will take place as early as 3Q11 and they are likely to be robust, we maintain both counters in our top picks. We make one change to our country top picks list. We reduce our banking exposure from three to two bank stocks by removing Bangkok Bank (BBL) and replacing it with another direct domestic consumption play, Advanced Info Service (ADVANC). We still like banks fundamentals and have two (SCB and KTB) as top picks but we just want to reduce exposure
6

Cut bank exposure and add ADVANC

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Aug-10

Apr-11

Worst panic Volatility Panic sw ing 8x but no sw ing 1STD 2STD 9x real crisis 10x

8 Oct-10 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jun-10 Jul-11

STRATEGY NOTE

SIAM SENSES

PIMPAKA NICHGAROON

due to: 1) a flattening yield curve (Exhibit 15-16), 2) a potentially early end to policy rate hikes as we mentioned earlier in the report; and 3) banks being subject to high levels of market volatility. ADVANC in now in our top picks list as it is a more defensive and direct consumption play with near-term catalysts of the setting up of the National Telecommunications and Broadcasting Commission (NBTC) in the next one to two months and then a 3G license auction in 1H12.

Ex 13: Thanacharts Top Picks

Norm EPS Current price (Bt/shr) ADVANC * BANPU BGH CPALL DTAC IVL KSL KTB SCB TUF Stocks taken out BBL 159.00 220.00 115.00 680.00 63.75 50.25 68.25 41.25 15.80 20.30 117.00 57.75 Target price (Bt/shr) 140.00 900.00 77.00 60.00 85.00 61.00 22.00 27.00 140.00 76.00 Upside (%) Market Cap (US$ m) 11,379 6,188 3,299 7,561 5,422 6,653 902 7,604 13,319 1,851 growth 2011F (%) 9.2 20.0 40.1 20.2 8.0 101.3 962.7 50.7 30.1 81.4 2012F (%) (10.9) 33.4 20.7 24.8 (26.1) 6.0 22.4 20.2 17.4 18.2 Norm PE 2011F (x) 14.1 15.3 24.4 27.7 14.2 13.0 14.5 10.1 12.6 14.0 2012F (x) 15.8 11.5 20.2 22.2 19.2 12.3 11.9 8.4 10.8 11.8 EV/EBITDA or P/BV for banks 2011F (x) 6.6 10.0 14.7 14.7 5.7 10.0 9.6 1.6 2.2 10.6 2012F (x) 6.9 7.1 11.4 11.8 6.9 9.0 7.8 1.4 2.0 9.1 Yield 2011F (%) 7.1 3.2 1.8 2.9 8.8 1.7 1.6 4.0 3.3 2.2 2012F (%) 6.3 2.8 2.5 3.8 5.2 2.4 2.1 4.8 3.9 2.2

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21.7 32.4 20.8 19.4 24.5 47.9 39.2 33.0 19.7 31.6

38.4

10,165

13.0

16.2

10.9

9.4

1.2

1.1

2.7

3.2

Source: Thanachart estimates Note: * New additions

Ex 14: Good Ad Hoc Names (Good Small Cap Or Low Turnover Names)
Current price (Bt/shr) BIGC GLOBAL MAKRO RS SAMART 132.50 9.30 250.00 4.08 10.20 Target price (Bt/shr) 160.00 10.50 260.00 5.35 13.00 Upside (%) 20.8 12.9 4.0 31.1 27.5 Market cap (US$ m) 3,556 448 2,009 140 334 Daily Turnover (US$ m) 2.98 1.20 1.46 0.85 4.71 Norm EPS growth 2011F (%) 31.8 22.6 27.9 (4.9) 94.6 2012F (%) 24.4 32.9 25.0 14.7 15.2 Norm PE 2011F (x) 24.6 29.2 24.9 11.3 12.0 2012F (x) 19.8 22.0 19.9 9.9 10.4 EV/EBITDA 2011F (x) 11.9 17.2 13.7 5.7 6.7 2012F (x) 10.0 12.6 11.2 4.5 6.0 Yield 2011F (%) 2.0 1.0 3.2 4.0 4.6

Source: Thanachart estimates

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PIMPAKA NICHGAROON

Ex 15: Bond Yield Gap (Yield Curve) vs Banking Index

(%) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) Oct-90 Oct-93 Oct-96 Apr-92 Apr-95 Jan-90 Jul-91 Jan-93 Jul-94 Asian crisis 10Y minus 1Y bond yield gap (LHS) Banking Index (RHS) (Index) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Apr-98 Oct-99 Jul-97 Jan-99

Ex 16: Bond Yield Gap (Yield Curve) vs Banking Index

(%) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 10Y minus 1Y bond yield gap (LHS) Banking Index (RHS)
Volume growth story, rather than margin, deviated bank index from flattening yield curve.

(Index) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Jan-96

Sources: SET; Thai BMA

Thanachart Securities

Sources: SET; Thai BMA

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Jan-99 Oct-99 Jul-00 Apr-01 Jan-02 Oct-02 Jul-03 Apr-04 Jan-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11

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General Disclaimers And Disclosures: This report is prepared and issued by Thanachart Securities Public Company Limited (TNS) as a resource only for clients of TNS, Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited (TCAP) and its group companies. Copyright Thanachart Securities Public Company Limited. All rights reserved. The report may not be reproduced in whole or in part or delivered to other persons without our written consent.

This report is prepared by analysts who are employed by the research department of TNS. While the information is from sources believed to be reliable, neither the information nor the forecasts shall be taken as a representation or warranty for which TNS or TCAP or its group companies or any of their employees incur any responsibility. This report is provided to you for informational

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purposes only and it is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer or an invitation to make an offer to sell or buy any securities. Neither TNS, TCAP nor its group companies accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.

The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable. However, TNS, TCAP and its group companies make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change without notice. The use of any information, forecasts and opinions contained in

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Recommendation Structure:

Recommendations are based on absolute upside or downside, which is the difference between the target price and the current market price. If the upside is 10% or more, the recommendation is BUY. If the downside is 10% or more, the recommendation is SELL. For stocks where the upside or downside is less than 10%, the recommendation is HOLD. Unless otherwise specified, these recommendations are set with a 12-month horizon. Thus, it is possible that future price volatility may cause a temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock based on the market price and the formal recommendation.

For sectors, we look at two areas, ie, the sector outlook and the sector weighting. For the sector outlook, an arrow pointing up, or the word Positive, is used when we see the industry trend improving. An arrow pointing down, or the word Negative, is used when we

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see the industry trend deteriorating. A double-tipped horizontal arrow, or the word Unchanged, is used when the industry trend does not look as if it will alter. The industry trend view is our top-down perspective on the industry rather than a bottom-up interpretation

from the stocks we cover. An Overweight sector weighting is used when we have BUYs on majority of the stocks under our coverage by market cap. Underweight is used when we have SELLs on majority of the stocks we cover by market cap. Neutral is

used when there are relatively equal weightings of BUYs and SELLs.

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Research Team 28 Floor, Siam Tower Unit A1 989 Rama 1, Pathumwan Road, Bangkok 10330 Tel: 662 - 617 4900
Pimpaka Nichgaroon, CFA Head of Research Economics & Strategy, Chemical, Cement pimpaka.nic@thanachartsec.co.th Sarachada Sornsong Banks, Telecom sarachada.sor@thanachartsec.co.th Phannarai Tiyapittayarut Property, Retail phannarai.von@thanachartsec.co.th Youssef Abboud Shipping youssef.abb@thanachartsec.co.th Saksid Phadthananarak Construction, Transportation saksid.pha@thanachartsec.co.th Aungkana Tungwikromkrai, CFA Auto, Electronics, Food aungkana.tun@thanachartsec.co.th Kalvalee Thongsomaung Assistant Analyst, Media kalvalee.tho@thanachartsec.co.th Noppadol Pririyawut Senior Technical Analyst noppadol.pri@thanachartsec.co.th Pawarisa Lertkijkhunnanont Technical Analyst pawarisa.ler@thanachart.co.th Supanna Suwankird Energy, Utilities supanna.suw@thanachartsec.co.th Siriporn Arunothai Ad Hoc Research, Healthcare siriporn.aru@thanachartsec.co.th

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10