UniKL-BMI/FYP/G/04/A2

02/08/10

PROJECT PROPOSAL

Methods for Reliability Analysis of Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) System

STUDENT NAME: ID NO.: .. INSTITUTION: . SECTION: SUPERVISOR: .. DATE: .

Abstract The abstract is a brief summary of the project proposal Present a brief introduction of the issue Make the key statement of the project Include a possible implication/benefits of the work
Statement

The general purpose of an uninterruptible power supply (UPS) system is twofold: to give a continuity of electric supply, and to provide a clean supply (consistent within set
Brief introduction

limits of variation for voltage and frequency) to the supported electrical equipments or loads. These critical loads should not be interrupted, not even for an instant; and the UPS systems need to be able to supply power continuously, not only in the case of power failure but also during troubleshooting and maintenance of the system. Reliability estimation was found to be one of the best methods to ensure that the UPS system will be able to support the critical loads for a specified time during power disturbances as the systems reliability parameters will provide useful information on the systems reliability level and performance. These figures can also be used to plan for
Benefits Statement Main issue

Key statement

Application of the outcomes

UPS systems maintenance program and correspondingly to plan for the numbers of component spares and logistic. The estimated UPS systems reliability parameters can be applied to compare the UPS design, types and configurations; along with other factors such as system performance and cost. The main focus of the study is on the reliability

Benefits

Benefits

Focus area

estimation of UPS system and new development in reliability estimation techniques will be proposed, tested and applied to the analysis and design of the UPS systems. This research study will reviews the various types and configuration of UPS systems

Limitations of the study

Methodology

which will then be used as case studies to test and validate the proposed reliability estimation methods. Sensitivity analysis techniques will be proposed and conducted to identify areas of improvements to the UPS systems reliability. The research study will

Results analysis Results validation

Possible research outcomes

concludes with recommendations on the most suitable UPS system in terms of systems topology and configuration with respect to load criticality and applications.
Recommendations

Table of Contents List all headings and subheadings with page numbers

CONTENTS ABSTRACT . INTRODUCTION ... PROBLEM STATEMENT LITERATURE REVIEW .. METHODOLOGY . OBJECTIVES . BENEFITS/ CONTRIBUTIONS ... WORK PLAN .. BUDGET .. CONCLUSION ... REFERENCES

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Table 1: Applications of UPS System Reliability Estimations Table 2: Work Plan .

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Introduction This section sets the context for the proposed project and must capture the readers interest Explain the background of the study from a broad picture narrowing in on the research/ project question Review what is known about the research topic as far as it is relevant to the research/project The introduction should be at a level that make it easy to understand for readers with a general science background
Research area (WIDE)

The objective of an electricity supply utility is to provide a wide range and variety of customers with a supply of electrical energy. Their main aims are to meet the variable and instantaneous demand for electricity at the most economic cost, and to achieve customer satisfaction by a good standard of reliability and quality in terms of voltage and frequency. However, it is unrealistic to expect the electricity supply utilities to plan the generation, transmission and distribution systems such that the supplies of electricity are

Electrical sector

The need of research knowledge

never interrupted. The reliability and continuity of supply from the electricity supply utilities cannot be guaranteed absolutely as power outages and disturbances must be expected at some time [1]. Such outages and disturbances can be quite disastrous in the case of sensitive loads, such as computers, which are now extensively used in modern commerce and industry. UPS system reliability estimation has found to be one of the best methods to ensure that UPS systems will be able to support the critical loads for a specified time during power disturbances as the systems reliability parameters provide useful information on the systems reliability level and performance. The reliability estimation of a UPS system

Electrical power reliability

Load criticality

Research area (NARROW)

Statement

Research knowledge

provides a numerical procedure for determining the probability that the system will operate without failure for a given time period, t. Reliability estimations can be made through any appropriate combination of reliability models, historical data, and engineering judgement. The choice of which reliability estimation method to use depends on the availability of information and reliability data, UPS system configuration,
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Back-up power supply industry

complicatedness of the estimation technique, and the systems reliability parameters

Research knowledge

required [2,3]. Usually, reliability is estimated in one of two ways: 1) As a probability of non-failure over a specified period, i.e Reliability, R(t). 2) As a mean time between failures (MTBF) or its reciprocal which is failure rate, .

Problem Statement A short summary of the research problem

An Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) system is a circuit which ensures a continuous
Research statement

power supply to the load irrespective to any power quality problems. As the critical electrical equipments or loads in telecommunications, information technology, financial systems, and medical treatment should not be interrupted, not even for an instant; the UPS systems need to be able to supply power continuously, not only during power failure but also during troubleshooting or maintenance of the systems. In some unfortunate

Load criticality

Issues Problem area

instances, the UPS fails to supply the back-up power to the critical loads when utility power fails, and consequently, the critical loads will drop and collapse. There are many reasons for this to happen, among others are; components or modules failure, lack of maintenance, environment factors and system overload [4]. For these reasons, it is

Research motivation

important to develop methods to estimate the reliability of such system, to ensure it will perform satisfactorily when needed the most.

Literature Review A short and precise overview about the present state of research that is immediately connected with the proposed project Name and discuss the most important contributions of other related projects/ findings
There are a number of methods and approaches being used or proposed to estimate the reliability of UPS systems. One of the methods usually used was the state-space method
Existing method 1 Basic concept

[5]. With this method, all the possible system states were identified and the state transition diagram has to be constructed in order to show the interdependencies between them. The system states probabilities and the inter-state transition rates have to be determined. However, difficulty in constructing the state transition diagram for the redundant and bigger system has made the method become less popular as a method in determining the power systems reliability. A study by [6] used the minimal cut set method for the reliability analysis of standby and emergency power systems. This method is very similar to the state-space approach
Method drawback

Existing method 2

where the state transition diagram has to be constructed and the inter-state transition rates and the steady-state probabilities have to be determined first. Papers [7] describe the methodology to analyze the availability and reliability performance of the uninterruptible power supply based on Markov chains. The results

Method drawback

Existing method 3

obtained were useful since the reliability parameters of each major component can be achieved individually and the final outcomes of the overall system can be compared easily and this approach will be used as the basis of the proposed reliability estimation methods in this research study. The main disadvantages of the Markov chain techniques is in order to construct the systems Markov graphs, a great understanding of the system operations is essential.
Method drawback Method contribution

The field data measurement method [1] was widely used as a method to estimate the reliability parameters of the UPS systems and mostly implemented by the UPS
Existing method 4

Applications

manufacturers. The method consists of tracking a sample population of the UPS systems installed in the field and gathering their failure data. By considering the total running hours against the number of failure of the UPS components, the systems failure rates and the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) can be calculated. As this method considers the actual failure data of the systems, the number of assumptions made in estimating systems reliability can be minimised. However, the data collection process can be very time consuming and there are some uncertainties involved, mainly in failure reporting. In contrast to the existing UPS reliability estimation methods that require more input

Basic concept

Method advantages

Method drawback

Proposed methods

data and computationally tedious, the proposed UPS system reliability estimation approaches presented in this research study will provide some useful, simple and fast methods to estimate the systems reliability performance.

Proposed method advantages

Methodology This section contains an overall description of the research approach, materials, and procedures - What methods will be used? - How will data be collected and analyzed? - What materials will be used? Include calculations, techniques, procedures and equipment Detail the limitations, assumptions, and range of validity
Focus area

The main focus of this research is on the reliability estimation of UPS system and new developments in reliability estimation techniques will be proposed, tested and applied to

Approach

the analysis and design of the UPS systems. In this research study, for every proposed reliability estimation methods, equations for calculating the reliability parameters will be presented along with components reliability estimates. Sensitivity analysis on UPS

Approach

components will be performed to investigate their effect on the overall system reliability levels. In order to validate the results obtained from the proposed methods, comparisons

Results validation

Approach

will be made to the results from the existing available systems reliability estimation methods such as from the commercial reliability estimation computer program and the results obtained from the field data measurement technique. This study will review the various types and configuration of UPS systems which will then be used as case studies to test and validate the proposed reliability estimation methods. Sensitivity analysis techniques will be proposed and conducted to identify areas

Results comparison

Approach

Case studies

Approach

of improvements to the UPS systems reliability. Cost/benefit analysis that considers the cost of outage and the cost of UPS system will also be performed to ensure that the UPS design configuration and application satisfies the power requirements at a right cost. The

Research output

research study will concludes with recommendations on the most suitable UPS system in terms of systems topology and configuration with respect to load criticality and applications.
Recommendations

Objectives A concise and clear outline of the aims that the researcher want to achieve through the project
This research study intends to plug the research gap and will demonstrate the development of the techniques to estimate UPS systems reliability parameters by: a) The development of UPS systems reliability estimation techniques by
Objective 1

New ideas

considering the failure and repair rates of the UPS components. b) The application of the proposed reliability estimation methods to the main UPS

Objective 2

topologies to determine the appropriate UPS types for particular applications. c) The application of the proposed reliability estimation methods to identify the best UPS design configuration in terms of the systems reliability and availability.

Applications

Objective 3

Applications

Objective 4

d) Sensitivity analysis of the UPS systems to suggest the potential source of failures and approaches to reduce their impact on UPS system reliability. e) Validating the systems reliability parameters obtained from the proposed UPS

Analytical

Objective 5

reliability estimation methods by considering the results from the commercial reliability estimation computer program and field data measurement technique.

Results validation & comparisons

Benefits/ Contributions Contains explanations on how the new findings/ideas will contribute to the industry/community Arguments on why is it worth knowing and what are the major implications of the research findings
Based on the objectives above, this research study will propose methods to estimate
Research approach Propose, test, apply

UPS systems reliability parameters and applies them to the major UPS types and UPS system configurations currently available in the market. If modelled carefully, the research outcomes will provide some original contributions in developing the UPS

Target area

system reliability estimation techniques and these findings will suggest useful recommendations in establishing the area of improvement in the design of the highest UPS systems reliability. The main original contributions of this research study can be stated briefly as follows:

UPS design (Application)

a) Development of a method to estimate UPS reliability parameters by representing the system as a set of block diagrams and assigning failure rates and repair rates for each block [Reliability Block Diagram method]. The main advantage of this
Contribution 1

New method (Approach)

method is its simplicity in constructing the reliability model of a system as it is quite close to the systems single-line diagram. The method will also allows sensitivity analysis to be performed to investigate the effect of varying the MTBF values of the major components in the UPS on the overall systems reliability. b) Employing the UPS components probabilities of operation and failure to obtain

New method (Advantage)

New method (Advantage)

Contribution 2

systems Failure rates and MTBF [Probability Tree and Boolean Truth Table methods]. The methods consist of listing all possible state combinations (operating and failure states) of the major components in the UPS system one after the other and investigating their effects on the overall system.

New method (Approach)

Contribution 3

c) Demonstrating that the proposed UPS system reliability estimation methods are applicable to estimate the essential reliability parameters for the main UPS topologies and UPS system configurations. The results obtained will be useful in comparing the performance of the various types and configurations of the UPS systems in terms of their reliability and availability levels. d) Introducing sensitivity analysis techniques [Gradient and High-Low Graph techniques] to analyse and investigate the effects of the reliability level of the

New method (Application)

New method (Approach)

Contribution 4

major components in the UPS system onto the overall systems reliability; thus making it possible to rank their contribution to systems reliability. The aim is to establish the area of improvement in the design of the highest UPS systems reliability. e) Performing a cost-benefit analysis study that determines the break-even point
New method (Application)

Contribution 5

when comparing the annual total outage cost in various industries or sectors against the annual UPS ownership cost.

New method (Application)

The UPS system reliability estimation describes the process used to estimate the
Research ideas

constant failure rate during the useful life of a system. The UPS reliability estimation will enables the user to make informed judgements and decisions about reliability level and

Benefits

performance of such system, in terms of systems design, topologies, configurations or applications. Practically, there are many applications of this reliability estimation process to ensure the highest UPS systems reliability to be maintained. Table 1 listed the applications of UPS systems reliability estimations throughout all the process during its useful life.

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TABLE 1: APPLICATIONS OF UPS SYSTEM RELIABILITY ESTIMATION Research Contributions (Applications)

Applications Design reviews, design evaluation Evaluation on types of components or modules UPS Designer Estimate and control the effect of design changes on reliability Trade-off study between reliability and cost Components or modules supplier selection process UPS Manufacturer Supplier assessment Product quality control program Determination of product warranty Tendering proposal Tendering process Product selection Trade-offs between reliability and cost Planned maintenance support Maintenance Safety analysis Logistic and spare-part level Logistic and spare-part level Repair Planned trouble-shooting procedure Safety studies To decide on UPS system configuration Customer Trade-off study between reliability and cost Product selection End-User Reliability of service estimation Service-provider selection

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Work Plan Details on how the project will be conducted List the stages of the proposed project Indicate deadlines; set for completing each stage of the project Discuss any particular challenges that need to be overcome
Research Plan (Time)

The time frame allocated for this research study is 6 months. It will start in June 2010 and is projected to be completed in December 2010. The Gantt chart for the project and its milestone are shown as in Table 2. Practically, reliability is often more difficult to specify than many major performance characteristics and is certainly more difficult than most to measure. The accurate

Challenges

Time consuming

assessment of the reliability of a product in use is often difficult because of the long Uncertainties period needed or the large number of samples required in order to gain statistical confidence in the assessment. In reliability estimation, the failure rate models are approximations to reality. The failure rate models are normally based on the best field
Possible solutions Statistical issues

data that could be obtained for a wide variety of parts and systems. This data is then analysed, with many simplifying assumptions applied, to create usable models. Thus, one should not treat a reliability estimation numbers for the system as an absolute prediction of field failure rate [2]. Generally, it has been agreed that these estimations can be very useful when used for relative comparison, such as comparing design alternatives, or comparing products.
Set limits & assumptions made

Challenges

Prototype of the UPS system configurations for data centre application will be build to enables the community to visualise the impact and application of the proposed methods
Prototype

Possible solutions

in determining the best solutions in UPS system design with respect to reliability and cost. This prototype will be presented in the FYP Presentation Day. The findings from the research study will be presented in the upcoming IEEE 5th

Possible solutions

Universities Power Electrical Conference (UPEC 10); which will be held in Shah Alam under Power Quality category.
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Conference

TABLE 2: WORK PLAN

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Budget Estimation on the overall cost of the project

A) Software 1. Commercial Reliability Software (Student Demo version) B) Stationary 1. Papers 2. Printer ink 3. Photocopy 4. Binding C) Others 1. Travelling expenses (Data collection) 2. UPS system configuration prototype TOTAL -

RM 30.00 RM 50.00 RM 20.00 RM 50.00

RM 50.00 RM 100.00 RM 350.00

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Conclusion What will be the outcome of the project? What new knowledge will the project produce? Who will be benefited from the new findings/ideas?
Possible outcomes New knowledge

The research study will produce new development in reliability estimation for UPS systems. New reliability estimation techniques will be proposed, tested and applied to the analysis and design of the UPS systems. The proposed techniques will be useful in

Research method

Applications

determining some important reliability parameters of the UPS systems and will provide information on the overall UPS systems reliability and availability. The UPS systems reliability figures can also be used to plan for UPS systems maintenance program and correspondingly to plan for component spares and logistic. The estimated UPS systems reliability parameters can be applied to compare the UPS design,

Applications

Applications

types and configurations; along with other factors such as performance, cost, available space, and many others. The research findings will be very useful in the UPS industry as it will enables the user to make informed judgements on reliability level and performance of such systems. Practically, its main target users are UPS system designers,
Sustainability of the research findings

Target users

manufacturers, UPS tendering committees maintenance and repair personnel and up to the end-users.

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References List all references cited in the proposal text

[1] D. Done, The Selection and Operation of Uninterruptible Power Supplies, HSE Contract Research Report No. 107/1996. Cheshire, UK: AEA Technologies Press, 1996 [2] P. Bentley and D. Bond, Uninterruptible Power Supplies: The Handbook. Berkshire, UK: Uninterruptible Power Supplies Limited, 2nd Edition, 2003. [3] A.T. Johns, J. Platts and J.S. Aubyn, Uninterruptible Power Supplies. London, UK: Peter Peregrinus IEE Power Series, 1992. [4] A. Kusko, Emergency/ Standby Power Systems. New York, USA: McGrawHill, 1st Edition, 1989. [5] K. Muller, Reliability of UPS Configurations, IEEE Int. Telecommunications Energy Conf., INTELEC 87, Stockholm, Sweden, June 14-17 1987. Paper No.16-6. [6] C. Singh and A. Patton, Reliability Evaluation of Emergency and Standby Power Systems, IEEE Trans. Industry Applications, Vol.21, No.2 Mar/Apr 1985, pp 1222-1227. [7] R. Billinton, R. Allan, Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems: Concepts and Techniques, London, Pitman, 1st Edition, 1985. [8] C. Singh, N. Gubbala and N. Gubbala, Reliability Analysis of Electric Supply Including Standby Generators and an Uninterruptible Power Supply System, IEEE Trans. Industry Applications, Vol. 30, No. 5, pp 1298-1302, Sept/Oct 1994.

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