Inner City Residential Structure and Decline Author(s): Truman A.

Hartshorn Source: Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 61, No. 1 (Mar., 1971), pp. 72-96 Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. on behalf of the Association of American Geographers Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2569319 . Accessed: 19/05/2011 07:46
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INNER CITY RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURE AND DECLINE

TRUMAN A. HARTSHORN ABSTRACT. The lack of an adequate theoreticalfoundation to explain residential attempt incorporate to blighted evidentas researchers has structure become increasingly areas of the city into a conceptual framework.Empirical evidence based on Cedar Rapids data indicates that the findingsof social area analysts are applicable to the inner city with its downgraded socioeconomic character and abundant substandard and contraction, with housing. A case is made fordecline and expansion,improvement respect to housing quality being instancesof a commonprocess of residentialchange. Expanding povertyand/or ghetto areas, coupled with intra-urbanmigration flows superimposedon a relativelyfixed housing stock,suggest that decline follows a concentricring expansionprocess most accelerated along sectors experiencingthe most in particularly those areas away fromthe expanding ghetto. KEY rapid out-migration, WORDS: Cedar Rapids, Housing quality, Inner city,Residentialsuccession,Social area analysis, Urban structure. areas for the fifty-nine largest cities in the United States show striking increases in their areal extentover the past decade.2 Particularly acute in these areas is the impactionof other urban ills such as old, substandard, overcrowded housing, and high welfare, crime, and illegitimacyrates. A high pro6 Acceptedforpublication April1970. portion of black and other minoritygroup households are also concentratedhere.3 at of Professor Geography is Dr. Hartshorn Associate The lack of an adequate theoreticalfounin GeorgiaStateUniversity Atlanta. dation to explain the residentialstructure of central city areas has become increasingly 1E. M. Hoover, "The Evolving Form and Orgaevident as scholars attempt to incorporate nization of the Metropolis," in H. S. Perloff and L. this decliningportionof the city into a conWingo, Jr., eds., Issues in Urban Economics (Washceptual framework. The purpose of this ington: Resources for the Future, 1968), pp. 23784; H. M. Rose, "The Development of an Urban paper is to gain insightinto the behavioral Subsystem: The Case of the Negro Ghetto," Annals, processes modeling the residential structure Association of American Geographers, Vol. 60 (1970), pp. 1-17; M. Anderson, The Federal Bull- of these declining areas. The firstpart discusses existing literature dealing with the dozer (Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1964); I. S. Lowry, ed., Recommen- residential structureof the city, with pardationsfor Research in Supportof Federal Urban ticular emphasis on two interactingforces, Programs, RM-5503-HUD (Santa Monica: The Rand and expansionof low quality Corporation, 1968); A. H. Pascal, ed., Cities in temporaldecline Trouble:An Agenda for Urban Research,RM-5603- housing; the second part analyzes the actual RC (Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1968); expansion and intensification residential of R. E. Erb, "An Economic Analysis of Urban Resi- decline in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, forthe period dential Blight," unpublished doctoral dissertation, 1940-1960. Stanford University, 1968; J. S. Adams and R.
Sanders, "Urban Residential Structure and the Location of Stress in Ghettos," Earth and Mineral Sciences, Vol. 38 (1969), pp. 29-33; A. D. Manvel,

ANY of the social and economic problems facing urban areas are concentrated in the inner city. Urban poverty, "slums," "ghettos," and blighted neighborhoods are all located in the inner city area.' 1970 estimatesof urban poverty Preliminary

Housing Conditionsin Urban PovertyAreas, Re-

search Report No. 9, (Washington, D. C.: The Publishing Co., 1965); D. B. Lee, Analysis and Description Residential National Commission on Urban Problems, 1968); of Segregation, (Ithaca: Center and U. S. Congress, Subcommittee on Urban Affairs, for Housing and Environmental Studies, Cornell Hearingsand University, 1966); and R. E. Zelder, "Racial SegreUrban America:Goals and Problems, Material (Washington: Government Printing Office, gation and Urban Housing Markets," Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 10 (1970), pp. 93-105. 1967).

K. E. and A. F. Taeuber,Negroesin Cities: Residential Segregation and Change, (Chicago: Aldine

3

2A.

I. Winard, personal communication.

72

1971
THEOBETICAL FOUNDATION

INNER CrM'Y

73

Descriptions of residential locations, and indirectly, housingquality,are based on wellknown generalizationsthat land prices and residentialdensities increase toward central locationswithinthe city. Evidence is mounting, however,that rent and densitygradients are inadequate to explain residential space, and that certain forces counter this conceptualization.4 In the firstplace, Harris suggested that the trade-off between increased space and travel distance, thought to explain housing consumption, not realistic.5 Contemporary is urban families apparently do not substitute space and rent savings for accessibility,for they can have both in outlying areas. Secondly, the success of recentlydeveloped central city rental complexes indicates that the more affluentwould live closer to the center of the city if densities and quality levels were in line with current styles, preferences, and technologicalstandards. Stegman has suggested that a reversal in income groups might accompany such changes in the housing matrix, with the wealthy in the innercityand the poorer on the margins, not unlike the situationin European cities in the past.6 Thirdly,Johnson suggested that the traditional construots thought to describe urban residentialstructure apply only to the whitecommunity, are not relevantto the and nonwhitesector,which is becoming a large part of most large North American cities.7

Several theoreticalstudies of urban structure have made the simplifying unrealistic if assumption of a single central employment area in the city.8 Given boiththe behavioral processes involved in residentialdevelopment and the decentralized structureof the city, with a near uniformity employment of centers and retail outlets, the scholar must discard this assumption.9 High rise apartmentsthat were once only a part of the centralcity are now found throughout city,includingthe the suburbs. These observationssuggestthat the traditional hypotheses for explaining land uses, based on land value gradientsand accessibility measures,are erroneous.10 Perhaps the needed insight into the behavioral processes modeling urban development could be obtained by focusing more specificallyon the tastes and preferencesof households. Existing material on the social performance housing suggests that tenant of satisfactionis a complex problem and that residents have attitudes unlike those presented in the past. Simmons indicates, for example, that residents move much more frequently than has been supposed, oftenfor trivial reasons.1" And, given a choice, residents will tend to choose a given neighbor8 Alonso,op.

4. cit., footnote 9 D. E. Boyce, "Urban Travel Patterns," Journal of RegionalScience,Vol. 6 (1965), p. 79; R. Muth, "The Spatial Structureof the Housing Market," of Papers and Proceedings the RegionalScience Association, Vol. 7 (1961), pp. 207-20; R. Muth,"The Variationof PopulationDensityand its Components 4 C. Clark,"Urban PopulationDensities,"Journal in South Chicago," Papers and Proceedings the of Vol. 15 (1965), pp. of the Royal Statistical Society,Series A, Vol. 114 Regional Science Association, (1951), pp. 490-96; J.D. Herbert and B. H. Stevens, 173-84; and L. S. Bourne,"Market,Location and Canadian Construction," "A Model forthe Distribution Residential of Activi- Site Selectionin Apartment Vol. 12 (1968), p. 216. tiesin UrbanAreas,"Journal Regional of Science, Vol. Geographer, 2 (1960), pp. 21-36; L. Wingo,Jr.,Transportation 10 I. S. Lowry,Seven Models of Urban DevelopComparison (Santa Monica: Raind and Urban Land (Washington: Resourcesfor the ment:A Structural "A 1967), pp. 34-38; G. L. Peterson, Future,1961); W. Alonso,Location and Land Use Corporation, Analysisof the Model of Preference:Quantitative (Cambridge:HarvardUniversity Press,1964); B. E. of Newling, "Urban Growth and Spatial Structure: Perception the Visual Appearanceof Residential of Journal RegionalScience,Vol. 7 Mathematical Models and Empirical Evidence," Neighborhoods," Geographical Review,Vol. 56 (1966), pp. 213-25; (1967), pp. 19-32; E. W. Butler,et. al., Moving Behavior:A National Surand B. E. Newling, "The Spatial Variation Urban Behaviorand Residential of Population Densities,"Geographical Review,Vol. 59 vey (Chapel Hill: Center for Urban and Regional (1969), pp. 242-52. of Studies, University North Carolina, 1968); and 5 B. Harris,"Quantitative of Models of Urban De- F. S. Chapin and T. Logan, "Patterns Time and in ed., The Quality of velopment," Perloff and Wingo,op. cit., footnote Space Use," in H. D. Perloff, 1, p. 393. the Urban Environment (Washington:Resourcesfor 6 M. A. Stegman, "Accessibility Models and Resi- the Future,1969), pp. 305-32. dentialLocation,"Journal the American of Institute 11'J.Simmons,"The Changing Residence in the of Planners, Vol. 35 (1969), p. 24. GeographMobility," City: A Review of Intra-Urban ical Review,Vol. 63 (1968), p. 650. 7R. J. Johnson, personalcommunication.

74

TRUMAN A.

-IABTSIIOBN

March

hood even if it means locating in a less desirable house than what might be available in a less exclusiveneighborhood.One promising approach to exploit fully the behavioral is aspects of intra-urban migration to view it as a process of adjustment involvingthe substitution of one residence for another to satisfymore fully household needs and desires, using the notion of place utility.'2
RESIDENTIAL STRUCWURE

Sociologists, economists,and geographers have contributed a greaterunderstanding to of the distributive mechanismsat workin the city, notwithstanding the paucity of wellfounded theory. Berry has indicated that cities are highlystructured, both locationally and functionally, a consequence of these as processes.13Early descriptivegeneralizations concerning housing, by Hurd and others, related neighborhood characteristics,especially incomeand rentals, two simultaneous to patternsof growthwhich were called central and axial.14 Hoyt laterexpanded on the theme of sectoral or axial growthin his studies of Chicago.15 Burgess observed that cities were structured in concentric rings around the central business district.16Subsequent research has revealed that both sectors and ringscharacterizethe spatial structure the of city. Most analyses of 'the socioeconomic structure residentialareas have been conof in ceived, somewhat arbitrarily, the framework of social area analyses and three economic status,family recurrent dimensions,
12 P. H. Rossi,WhyFamiliesMove: A Studyin the Social Psychologyof Urban Residential Mobility "Behavioral (Glencoe: Free Press,1955); J. Wolpert, Papers and ProAspectsof the Decison to Migrate," Vol. 25 ceedingsof the RegionalScienceAssociation, (1965), pp. 159-69; and L. A. Brown and D. B. Space: Flows in Intra-urban "Migration Longbrake, of Annals,Association Place UtilityConsiderations," Vol. 60 (1970), pp. 368-84. Geographers, American 13 B. J. L. Berry, of "InternalStructure the City," Vol. 30 (1965), Problems, Law and Contemporary

status, and ethnic status, have consistently been identified. Rigorous analytical tools have confirmed these basic dimensions in several American,European, Asian, and African countries.17 The spatial expression of socioeconomic areas reveals three general independentpatterns of residentswithin the city: 1) axial, 2) concentric,and 3) multiple nuclei. The concentric, or ring, pattern is generally dimension.Its structure to referred as a family components include the age structure of housingdensities, housingand neighborhoods, incidence of multiple unit structures,occupancy status, and participationof women in the labor force. The axial, or sector,pattern is characterizedby socioeconomic rank variations which include education levels, occupation types,income, and value of housing. The separation of high and low status sectors, on high ground with its superior and comamenitiesand in lowlyingindustrial mercial areas, respectively,is readily accounted for by this axial conceptualization. "Thus, at the edge of the city are newer, occupant-owned, single family homes, in which reside larger families with younger children than nearer the city center, and where the wife stays at home."18 The third, or multiple nuclei, pattern is exhibited by group enclaves, and is ghettosand minority to oftenreferred as a segregationdimension. Associated with this pattern are such variables as deterioratedhousing, high rates of and a genrenteroccupancy, overcrowding, eral lack of household amenities.

17 and J. Egeland,"Spatial Aspects T. R. Anderson AmericanSociologicalReof Social Area Analysis," view, Vol. 26 (1961), pp. 392-98; R. M. Murdie, Toronto,1951Factorial Ecology of Metropolitan of 1961: An Essay on the Social Geography the City, of Research Paper No. 116, (Chicago: University 1968); B. J. L. of Chicago,Department Geography, Berryand E. Neils, "Location, Size and Shape of Factors" in Cities as Influencedby Environmental 10, op. Perloff, cit., footnote pp. 288-302; B. J. L. pp. 111-19. 14 R. M. Hurd, Principlesof City Land Values Berryand P. H. Rees, "The Factorial Ecology of Journalof Sociology,Vol. 19, Calcutta,"American. (New York: The Record and Guide, 1903). as and Growthof Resi- pp. 445-91; F. L. Sweetser,"Factor Structure 15H. Hoyt, The Structure in Cities (Washing- Ecological Structure Helsinkiand Boston,"Acta in dentialNeighborhoods American Sociologica,Vol. 26 (1965), pp. 205-25; and J. L. 1939). ton: Federal HousingAdministration, 16E. W. Burgess,"Urban Areas,"in T. V. Smith Abu-Lughod,"Factorial Ecology of Cairo, Egypt," in AmericanSociologicalReview, Vol. 34 (1969), pp. and L. D. White,eds., Chicago: An Experiment Social Science Research, (Chicago: The University 198-211. 18 Berry, 13, op. cit.,footnote p. 116. of Chicago Press, 1929), pp. 113-38.

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Furtherinsightinto the structure segreof gated residentialneighborhoodsis provided by Rose, who calls the ghetto an aberration in the process of urban structuraldevelopment.19The axial and concentricpatternof urban residential characteristics basic to is Rose's conceptualizationof the process. His theoryis that ghettos have both axial and concentric ring tendencies. Initial regular concentricpatternsin the city are distorted and similarconcentric patternsemergewithin the ghetto. Gradually the ghetto itself becomes a reversewedge or sector,with a wide base near the centralbusiness district and its apex advancing within an established sector.
TEMPORAL CHANGE: THE PROCESS OF DECLINE

Hoover explains this process by using changes in the rate of growth.22He says blight exists mainly in the inner-transition zone and is a result of three causes: 1) the vertical diversion of expansion in urban core, 2) slackeninggrowthof cities as a whole and an absolute decline in property values, 3) the automobile. Taeuber and Taeuber, in their study of residential segregation and the process of neighborhoodchange, were primarilyinterested in the racial state of census tractsand set up a classification scheme to help explain changes in them.28Their categoriesincluded: 1) 2) 3) 4) established Negro areas, stable interracialareas, consolidated areas, areas of displacement.

The lack of vitalityin, and the increasing burdens placed on, the rest of the city are emphasized in studies dealing with incipient decline in low quality residential areas. Walker listed several factorsassociated with internal temporal decline:20 1) high but fallingland values, 2) crowded but decreasing population, 3) vacant buildings, 4) heavily mortgagedproperty, 5) low average rentals, 6) low economic status of inhabitants, 7) excessive crimes and disease rates, 8) high per capita and per acre government costs, 9) tax delinquency. The New York MetropolitanStudies, especially those edited by Hoover and Vernon, have indicatedthe sequentialnatureof neighborhoodchange.21A five-step temporalprocess of neighborhoodchange is postulated: 1) single familyresidences, 2) transition, 3) downgrading, 4) thinning out, 5) renewal.
19H. 20 M. bridge: 21E. M. Rose, personal communication. Walker, Urban Blight and Slums (CamHarvard University Press, 1938). M. Hoover and R. Vernon, Anatomyof a Metropolis(Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1959); and R. Vernon, Metropolis 1985 (Cambridge: Harvard UniversityPress, 1960).

More revealingin the conceptualizationof temporal decline are the filter-down process and the tipping-point mechanism. What sociologists have foryears called the filteringdown process frequentlyfollows where a successionof familiesoccupy a residence.The classic explanation of this process involves former residentsmoving froman area creating a "vacuum" and newer residents, having less exactingtastes and lower incomes,entering the area.24 They are unable to take as good care of the propertyas the previous owners, and the resultingmaintenance gap leads to a decline in housingquality,particularly if the process continuesthroughseveral changes in ownership. As the cycle of decline continues housing becomes renter oc22 E. M. Hoover, The Location of Economic Activity,(New York: McGraw Hill Book Company, 1948). 23 3. Taeuber and Taeuber,op. cit., footnote 24 E. P. Wolf, "The Tipping Point in Racially Journal the Americati of ChangingNeighborhoods," Institute Planners,Vol. 29 (1963), pp. 217-23; of Sequence as a E. P. Wolf,"The Invasion-Succession Prophecy,"Journalof Social Issues, Self-Fulfilling aind Filtering Vol. 13 (1957), pp. 7-20; W. F. Smith, NeighborhoodChange (Berkeley: The Center for Institute Urban of Real Estate and UrbanEconomics, of University California, and RegionalDevelopment, Area as a The Metropolitan 1964); and M. Grodzins, of Racial Problem(Pittsburgh: University Pittsburgh Press, 1958).

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TLuMAN A.

HALRTSHIOliN

March

cupied. Absentee ownershipand rapid turnquality decline. over encourage further process The importanceof the filter-down is that it representsa pervasive force which operates, at least initially,independentlyof physical deterioration. The only necessary condition for this process is new housing given the changing tastes and construction, of preferences urban residentsresultingfrom increased affluence and technological advancements. New constructionpermits an of outmigration households from older resiand these more desirdential developments, able newerresidencesat the same timereduce the value of earlier housing. Lower income residentsare then free to move in. Thus the aging of housing,accompanied by diminished process. value, is conduciveto the filter-down After a few decades quality decline is usually associated with the process. Although could be arrested,it frequently deterioration assumes a continuous downward sequence until housing reaches the lower end of the only then to be razed or quality continuum, rehabilitated. This trend was noted by Hoover and Vernon in New York City.25 However,declines in value and quality at this lowerend of the scale are somewhattempered by the increasedclientelebidding forhousing. This situation has made these low quality profitablefor absentee landareas extremely lords and encourages their continued existence. mechanism is said to The tipping-point groups are operate in areas where minority moving into white neighborhoods. Wolf has described the tipping point as a threshold which is reached as the proportionof minoritygroup persons in an area exceeds the limits of its tolerance for interracialliving, and the whites move out.26 Althoughrecogmostscholexists, nizingthatsuch a threshold ars believe that its level varies widely from and even withina to community community, of The importance thisconceptto community. neighborhooddecline is that it implies social if and economicdowngrading, notphysicaldeterioration,as a result of intra-urbanmigration. This is in part due to the lower buyingpower of the newly arrivedresidents, of which affectsthe retail structure the area.
25 26

including institutions, Stresson neighborhood schools and churches,follows too from the invasion process. Wolf has also noted that this process is influencedby a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby residents,believing that will act group invasionis imminent, minority and so as to encourage thistransition, make it succeed by moving out. These observations imply that decline also has a strongspatial dimension. This expansion process has been recognized for decades but has been studied only recently. systematically
SPATIAL PROCESS APPROACH

the Althoughoveremphasizing physicalfactors associated with the expansion of low quality housing, Wright analyzed what he called sinkingslums with great perception:27
line between Usuallythereis not a sharpdividing sections. Blighthas a areas of blightand healthy tendencyto spread out on all sides like ever wideningripples caused by a pebble, with an
indeterminate area at the outer edge.

pointto keep in mindhere is the tendimportant ency of blightto spread and bringadjacent areas region. withinthe affected

. ..

The

Expanding areas of substandard housing to have been attributed an excessive rate of city growth. Emphasizing the organic nature of the city,Saarinen said that in many cases, "the overgrowncity is like the flat lichen on Cliff,where expansion outward the Northern causes witheringof the center."28He urged of and more flexibility decentralization activities to overcome this weakness. Given that housingin the centerof the older,inexpensive cityhas always attractedforeignimmigrants, rural to urban migrants,and low income it migrants, is obvious that there intra-urban is continuous pressure for more low cost housing. Lateral movementis not as common as outward expansionas a resultof thispressure for more housing. Other close-in residential areas with similarhousing are already groups and outoccupied by other minority the only choice. ward moves are frequently What Rose has described as a reversewedge with the apex penetratingoutward fromthe center and the base toward the city center
27 H. K. Wright, "SinkingSlums,"SurveyGraphic, Vol. 22 (1933), pp. 417-19. 28 E. Saarinen,The City (Cambridge: The MasPress,1943). Institute Technology of sachusetts

Hoover and Vernon, op. cit., footnote 21. Wolf, op. cit., footnote 24.

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INNER CITY

77

The role of proximity was critical to the conceptualizesthis growthprocess. Furthermore, literature on intra-urban migration expansion process, which was reduced to a suggests that moves usually remain in one systemof replacing passive white "deserters" sector.29 This follows from the recognition with active Negro migrants. A reductionin that most moves are short and are usually growth or spread would require weakening made into areas the mover is familiarwith of the distinction between groups (Negroes on the basis of his action space. Persons of a and whites in this case), but this does not given socioeconomicclass are moving at ap- occur because the process of transitionis proximatelythe same rates, freeing homes inevitable once a certainnumber of Negroes from the center outward. In short,movers move into a neighborhood. This evacuationapparentlyfollow migrationstreamsin rela- replacementprocess continues until a block is solidly transformed from white to Negro socioeconomicsectors. tivelyuniform Morrill'swork in the Seattle ghetto sug- residence. to Wolpert has referred this process as the gests that expansion can be reduced to a spatial diffusionprocess, following what is expanding contagion of dilapidation, recogeffect.30 nizing that run-down neighborhood conknownas the neighborhood generally Morrill used a diffusiontheory conceptual ditionshave a negativeimpacton surrounding to framework studythe spread of the ghetto, properties.33Economists call this an exterIt to and his findingsare relevant to the more nalityeffect.34 has also been referred as general problem of blighted housing, to the Gresham's Law of Land Use.35 Given such littleincentiveexistsforimprovextent that it exhibits the same tendencies. externalities, Morrill traced the origin of the ghetto and ing propertiesin declining neighborhoodsas forces that perpetuated it, including the house values are diminishedby neighboring process of expansion,in Seattle, Washington, properties. Fragmentation ownershipand of forthe period 1940-1960. The spread of the the nature of sequential bargaining,both of ghetto was treated as a spatial diffusion which work against redevelopmentby the process in which Negro migrantsgradually private sector, encourage further decline. penetrated surroundingwhite areas. "The Government intervention to reverse this ghettois almost always in a zone peripheral process is apparently necessary,as the private oftencontainto the centralbusiness district, sector can not deal with it effectively.36 with eleganthouses intermingled ing formerly and light industrialuses."31 At commercial VARIABLES ASSOCIATED WITH HOUSING least four separate and interacting forces QUALITY DECLINE maintainthis segregatedghettosystem:prejThe importanceof criticalvariables to the udice of whites against minority groups, process of housing decline has received wide and discrimination the real estate industry by attention. Knos found significantrelationand associated financial institutions,legal ships between six independentvariables and governmentbarriers, and economic forces substandardhousing at block and tractlevels such as the notion of the slumlord's dilemma.32 33 J. Wolpert and D. Zillman, "The Sequential
29

Vol. 45 (1969), 104. Economic Geography, Migration," 34H. 0. Nourse,RegionalEconomics(New York: pp. 302-23. 1968), pp. 230-36. 30 R. L. Morrill, "The Negro Ghetto: Alternatives McGraw-Hill, 3 Guiding Metropolitan Growth, (New York: and Consequences,"GeographicalReview, Vol. 55 for 1960), p. 20. "Waves of Spatial Committee EconomicDevelopment, (1965), p. 363; and R. L. Morrill, 36 Nourse, op. cit., footnote34, p. 235; similar Diffusion,"Journalof Regional Science, Vol. 8 are disproblems associated with retail structure (1968), pp. 1-18. Commercial Structure and cussed in B. J. L. Berry, 30, 31 Morrill (1965), op. cit., footnote p. 342. Research Paper No. 85 (Chicago: Blight, 32 The slumlord's dilemma(oftencalled theprison- Commercial of er's dilemma) is discussed in E. Smolensky,S. University Chicago Departmentof Geography, of Dilemma 1963); and H. M. Rose, "The Structure Retail Becker,and H. Molotch,"The Prisoner's and GhettoExpansion,"Land Economics,Vol. 44 Trade in a Racially Changing Trade Area," Analysis, Vol. 2 (1970), pp. 135-48. Geographical (1968), pp. 419-30.

Vol. 1 (1969), pp. 91and Planning, J. S. Adams, "DirectionalBias in Intra-Urban Environment

Expansionof a Decison Model in a Spatial Context,"

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strongpositive relationships with percentage CEDARRAPIDS Area Study ! of dwelling units overcrowdedand percentage of dwelling units built before 1920, and strong negative correlations with median family income,median school year completed, occupational index, and percentageof dwelling units owner occupied. Case used stepwise regressionanalysis in attempting design a model which would to predict the incidence of blight in California cities with a population of 10,000 or more in 1960.38He used substandardand dilapidated housing (as defined in the 1950 and 1960 Censuses of Housing) as the dependentvariof able, and selected characteristics the areas being studied as independentvariables. The major weakness of association-type studies is that they are not process oriented and thus do not make systematicspatialtemporalchanges explicit. This deficiencyis particularly criticalwhen dealing with existing residentialneighborhoods, which deon 0 mands are continually changing due to changing living standards, technology,and the mobility of both people and establishmentsresulting fromthese changingrelationFIG. 1. The study area in relation thecitylimits to ships. ofCedar Rapidsin 1950.
.r . --4000 feet

in Kansas City.37

Substandard housinghad

CARTOGRAPHY DEPT.OF GEOG., GEORGIASTATEUNIVERSITY LABORATORY,

EMPIRICAL

ANALYSIS

The present study representsan attempt to elicitthe basic dimensions neighborhood of residential structurein areas with considerable substandard housing and to overcome the criticismsleveled above by tracing, as accuratelyas existingdata allow, the changes in these areas over a twentyyear period.39

The studyarea is the innercity of Cedar of Rapids,Iowa, consisting 546 blockscontaining substandard in housing 1940,1950,or a 1960 (Fig. 1) .40 These blocksform nearly

Blocks: 1940, Cedar Rapids, Iowa," Table 3, in Census of Housing (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1941), pp. 6-17; Bureau of the Census, "Characteristics of Housing for Block Areas, By Blocks: 1950, Cedar Rapids, Iowa," Table 3, in 37D. S. Knos, "Substandard Housing in Kansas City, Missouri," unpublished doctoral dissertation, Census of Housing (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1951), pp. 4-15; and Bureau of the University of Iowa, 1959. 38 F. E. Case, "Prediction of the Incidence of Census, "Characteristicsof Housing Units, By Blocks: Urban Residential Blight," Papers and Proceedings 1960, Cedar Rapids, Iowa," Table 2, in Census of of the RegionalScience Association, Vol. 11 (1963), Housing (Washington: Government Printing Office, pp. 211-16. 1961), pp. 1-15. 40 The criteria most useful in defining low quality 39Data were gathered for this set of variables for 1940 and 1950. Blocks were screened on the basis of housing have received considerable attention. Census the incidence of substandard housing in at least one definitions were employed here. The terms low of these observation periods. The same blocks were quality and substandard housing are used interchangeably. A general discussion of the use of examined for both 1940 and 1950. In addition, data census data on housing quality can be found in M. were gathered for substandard housing only in 1960 The Federal Bulldozer, CriticalAnalysis A for use in the latter part of the analysis dealing Anderson, with decennial changes in housing quality. Data of Urban Renewal, 1949-1962 (Cambridge: Maswere obtained from Census materials, with the ex- sachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1964), pp. ception of the distance and topography measures, 214-15; Bureau of the Census, Measuring the Quality which were determined from large scale city maps; of Housing: An Appraisalof Census Statistics and Bureau of the Census, "Characteristicsof Housing by Methods, Working Paper No. 25 (Washington: Gov-

1971
OF VARIABLES EMPLOYED TABLE 1.-LIST CEDAR RAPIDS ANALYSIS a

INNER CITY
IN THE
TABLE 2.-RESIDENTIAL FOR STRUCTURE AND OF CEDAR

79
1940 1950
RAPIDS

HEVIND DISCBD MULHOU MONRNT lIOUVAL TOPOGR OWNOCC RNTOCC VACANT DENSTY DLAPTD A30-39 A20-30 A00-19 ABEF99 SNDHOU NHOS40

Distance from Heavy Industry Distance from CBD Distance from Multiple Housing Monthly Rent Average Value of Dwelling Unit Topography Percent Owner Occupied Percent Renter Occupied Percent Vacant Density of Housing Units Percent Dilapidated Percent Constructed 1930-1939 Percent Constructed 1920-1929 Percent Constructed 1900-1919 Percent Constructed 1899 or Before Percent Sound Dwelling Units Percent Constructed 1940-1950 (Only for 1950)

Factors

Eigenvalues

Percent of total
variance'

Percent of common
variance

1. Housing Age 1940 1950

2. Housing Quality

4.33 4.61

27.1 27.1 21.4 17.5 8.7 9.8 57.2 54.4

47.3 49.8 37.5 32.1 15.2 18.1 100 100

number of variables.

1940 3.43 1950 2.97 3. Housing Occupance 1940 1.39 1950 1.68 Total 1940 9.15b 1950 9.26b
Source:
Commnion variance.

Total variance = M = 17, where M calculated by author.

a The variables chosen for this study are expressed as averages, distances, or ratios in order to eliminate the possihility that the analysis might be influenced by variations in the size of city blocks. This procedure also facilitates crosssectional and temporal comparisons by minimizingthe effect of small changes in the absolute quantity of a phenomenon in a unit area. Source: compiled l)y author.

Inner City Residential Structure

These variables were subjected to a principal componentsanalysis in order to identify the significant of strucdimensions residential ture.42 Three components, which together accounted for slightlyless than sixtypercent contiguous area including approximately of the variance in both 1940 and 1950, were seventy-fivepercent of Cedar Rapids as isolated (Table 2). The components were definedby the 1950 city limits. Fringe areas labeled, on the basis of the highestcomponent of the city were not included; the incidence loadings, as Housing Age, Housing Quality, of low quality housing there is minimal,as and Residential Occupancy (Table 3). thisarea was developed recently.To identify The scale of variation representedby the of the residentialstructure the study area, I Housing Age component suggests a conused seventeen variables which appeared tinuum at the one end of which are blocks relevantto spatial variationin housing char(high positive scores) with relatively new acteristics, responsive to housing quality owner occupied homes some distance from changes, and were available for both 1940 the centralbusiness district higherground on and 1950 (Table 1) .41 with superioramenities. At the otherend are ernment Printing Office, 1967 ); T. A. Hartshorn, blocks (high negative scores) with older "Urban Residential Blight: The Structure and housing, higher renter occupancy, greater Change of Substandard Housing in Cedar Rapids, population densities, and closer to the central Iowa, 1940-1960", unpublished doctoral dissertation, business district.These characteristics repre"Measuring University of Iowa, 1968; A. Twichell, sent a concentric ring variationforboth 1940 the Quality of Housing in Planning for Redevelopment," in C. Woodbury, ed., Urban Redevelopment, and 1950, with the negative scores closer in Problems and Practices (Chicago: University of and the positive scores toward the periphery Chicago Press, 1953); American Public Health As(Figs. 2 and 3). It is reasonable to equate An AppraisalMethod for Measuringthe sociation, for of Housing:A Yardstick Health Officers, this dimension with the family structure Quality
Part 1, 1945, Part 2, and Planners, HousingOfficials
1946, Part 3, 1950 (New York: American Public Health Association); and B. S. Wellar, "A Program for Selection and Acquisition of Housing-Environment Data," unpublished doctoral dissertation, NorthwesternUniversity, 1969. 41 Only sixteen variables were gathered for 1940, as the seventeenth refers to housing constructed in the 1940-1950 period.
42 The usefulness of principal components analysis in examination of the internal structure of the city is widely known; B. J. L. Berry and F. E. Horton,

wood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1970), pp. 150-68. For principal components analysis, see H. H. Harmon, Modern Factor Analysis (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1967).

on GeographicPerspectives Urban Systems(Engle-

80

A. TRUMAN HARTSHORN

March

Cedar Rapids

FACTOR
1940

a e > w> b a

wS} ..A ... ...

. .. :::::::::::::::::::.: . .. >;. eB
. .]. . . . .

.... . . ..nt .inclde

[-1

X.

20001

FIG. 2. istics.

Factor 1 in 1940 shows a concentric ring arrangementin terms of age and occupancy character-

1971

INNER CITY

81

Cedar Rapids

FACTOR
1950

-0.999 + 0.999fl

Bloc0

notincluded

istics.

FIG. 3.

Factor 1 in 1950 shows a concentric ring arrangementin terms of age and occupancy character-

82
TABLE 3.-ROTATED

TRUMAN A.
FACTOR

HARTSHORN
MATRIX FOR CEDAR RAPIDSa

March

LOADING

Factor 1 Variable 1940 1950 1940

Factor 2 1950

Factor 3 1940 1950

Communality h2 1940 1950

MONRNT HEVIND DISCBD MULHOU HOUVAL TOPOGR OWNOCC RNTOCC VACANT DENSTY DLAPTD A30-39 A29-29 AOO-19 ABEF99 SNDHOU NHOS40

.56 .45 .76 .66 .79 .64 .54 .67 .68 -.68

.58 .84 .77 .75 .77 -.52 .58 .73 .58 -.52

.65

.67

.59

-.34

.38

.61

.60 .29 .12 .55

-.35 .77 -.60 -.53

-.45 -.87 .60 .88

-.35 -.84 .35 .84

.782 .408 .314 .735 .542 .567 .756 .477 .328 .504 .796 .556 .485 .452 .658 .786
.50

.588 .424 .741 .764 .549 .582 .694 .657 .289 .475 .803 .542 .402 .178 .487 .824 .226
are indicated

t Factor loadings are the result of varimax rotation. To facilitate interpretation, only those loadings except where lower loadings were included for comparability between 1940 and 1950 figures. Source: calculated by author.

and/orurbanizationdimensionnoted in other social area analysis studies. The second componentaccounts for variance in residentialstructure related to Housing Quality; blocks with high positive component loadings have predominantlysound housing, whereas blocks with high negative loadings have large quantitiesof low quality housing. High residential values and rent figuresare associated with the betterquality residentialareas, whereas the negativeblocks show lower value and rent figuresas well as higher density conditions. This component does not suggest that lower quality housing is confined to the center of the city, but rather, thatit is dispersedin a multiplenuclei arrangement (Figs. 4 and 5). Lower quality housing is located at the heart of each nucleus, with a grading upward in housing quality away fromthat center. Many blocks in an intermediate categoryin 1940 were in the lowest quality categoryby 1950, whereas fewer blocks appeared in the highest component score categoryin 1940 and 1950, suggesting an overall improvementin housing conditions. The correlation coefficientbetween the 1940 and 1950 distributions the on housing quality componentwas .65, whereas the correlationfor the two periods with the housing age componentwas .86, suggesting that indeed there is less correspondencebe-

tween the blocks loading strongly on the second componentin the two periods than is the case with the firstcomponent. These observations suggest a number of comparisons withthe findings others.First, of both the changingspatial patternsnoted here and those described by Morrillmay be seen as underlying a spatial diffusion process. Second, the ethnic segregation dimension noted by Berryand Murdie is similarto this component. A direct relationship between these two dimensionsis not valid, however, as there is no appreciable nonwhite;population in Cedar Rapids. Component three accounts for variance in neighborhood structurerelated to type of residential occupancy.In general,the polarity of this componentis renterversus owner occupancy,with renter-type blocks also having highervacancy rates. This componentis not so stable as the others,as is indicated by the change of signs on the componentloadings. It has an axial arrangementwith sectors grading outward into areas with greater quantities of owner occupied housing (Figs. 6 and 7). Expansion over timeis also sectoral along a northeast/southwest which stradaxis dles the main arteryof the city. These patterns, plus the role of occupancy status in componentthree,suggest a relativelyremote to similarity the socioeconomicstatus dimen-

1971

INNER CITY

83

Cedar Rapids

FACTOR
1940

.. ,,.,,. ..... N..... . .4 .. ............... ........... .-.. ........ ., x ~~~~~~~~~~~~~...............

, ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.............. \R...... . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. ...... : , ; ;.s ..................... .... .1 .,.:

. . .. ... ..... ....... _ .

..............\....

* ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...............................

~~~.

_.. ... .. .. . . _. . t/ . .. . .*.. .. ,

.. ..... ..... t...... ....

..,

,.

.,.

i,...''."' ... t. ..-".' zlk.......

........ ::.::.....* ::::: ............................. ...: .v t * m

I ::::::::::::::^:'*................

........, 1 \ :.*Ii-I izz-9t Y.X

;
|

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~:-

E~~~~~~~~~:i
1 7 t t t

AE
C

L|

FACTOR SCORE \\

I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. .....1 m

30W-l

-0999-|0999E:::::3 0 l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

<~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

....~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.....
FIG.

4.

Factorin 1940 showsa multiple 2 nuclei arrangement with respect to.....housing........

84

TRUMAN A. HARTSHORN

March

Cedar Rapids

FACTOR 2
1950

...............~ ~ .......,.,., ,.,.,.,=,,,.,.,, ...... :.s;a... , ~ ~ ~ ......... ~ : F ,., ........ ., .ig ,I :g:::g~g: \..
. . .... \

. * ...... . ...
9

........ ::::::::::::~~~~~~~.. ::::::::

::

:: ::.o

, ,,:iL .....\*aa:1l. tX-_

.++' .

. .

.......... :g -...o\ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~....1 .':::..

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ......-...

FI.5..Fco. rrneen.ihrepc.o 2i.90 hw..mlil.nce osn.qaiy

*~~~~

~
lc

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1.000
notincluded =

+ 2000

-. F 5.

Fat

2_ 1 i.

1971

INNER CITY

85

Cedar Rapids

FACTOR
1940

..4XX....
.............

....;\
... a _...

.........::s...,. . s1:::

2000

Block inclu0e no

FIG. 6. Factor 3 in 1940 suggestsa sectoralarrangemnent related to socioeconomic status.

86

A. TRiUMAN HARTSHORN

March

Cedar Rapids

FACTOR

[EEEEE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.....\... l L
03
I

u~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~..N C CO O \\ >

*ICOO X \\~~~~~X
Blocknot

F-EE

T~ ~ ~~~~~~~......
200G

included.......m

FIG.

7.

actor

sggests 1950

asectoralarrangemnt

r elaed

to

soioeconomc

status

1971

INNER CrIY

87
AREAS TYPES AS 1940 NEIGHBORHOOD INDEX RANK SOCIAL
AvecragC Total

sion identified social area analysis. Given by a wider range of data on education levels, occupations, and income by block, this relationshipmightbe more apparent.

Neighborhood Typology
The three relativelyindependent dimensions determinedby principal components analysis were superimposedon one another in orderto understand more fullythe residential structure Cedar Rapids. Blocks were of classifiedas typeson the basis of the relative importanceof the components. The study area was organized into subareas of roughly equivalent socioeconomic status,using these three components in combination. To determinethe relationships between sound and deterioratedhousing and the other dimensions of neighborhoodstructure, blocks were first combined on a two-way basis correspondingto the urbanization (Factor 1) and economic status (Factor 3) components (Fig. 8). Each of the two indices was divided by threeintervalsdetermined the by respectivemeans and standard deviations of the componentswith the exception of the third (Factor 2), which was split into two categoriescorresponding sound and dilapito dated housing. This latter housing quality component was divided in two ways to determine the most effective way of separating high and low quality residential areas. First, blocks with greater amounts of substandard housing than the mean (for 1940, fortypercent) were classified as high, and those below the mean, low. The second categorizationwas undertakenusing the means of the rotated factor scores for this comthe same ponent. Both yielded substantially resultsand the firsttechnique was adopted. When analyzing the study area without distinguishing between blocks with high and low indices of housing quality, most of the blocks were assigned to the middle range of the social rank index based on Factor 3 and to the low categoryof the urbanizationscale based on Factor 1 (Fig. 8). Sixty-two percent of the blocksfell withinthe low categoriesof the urbanizationscale and seventy-five percent in the middle ranges of the social rank scale in 1940, whereas sixty-nine percentand forty-five percentof the blocks were similarly aligned in 19,50.This suggeststhat the study
Z

7 13 4

1 9
0
23

13 17
Low

<
Z

49
47 75

6
6

62
64

j5

51

62

Total . .

h ...........

73 78

1950NEIGHBORHOOD AREAS TYPES AS RANK INDEX SOCIAL

.. AvcragC Total

4 3 4 10 6 1 30
Low
T<n: D41 I

Z,:;ii: ;.;; y A 10 ........ _

it~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

0 <:
Z 53 21

31
21 36 45

8
3 10 .,

69
77 67 _

Total
CARTOGRAPHY LABORATORY, DEPT. OF GEOG.,

65
GEORGIA

33
STATE

30
UNIVERSITY

51

FIG. 8. Neighborhood areas as types; the severely downgraded character of the study area is suggested by the high percentages in the low categories on the urbanization index and middle social rank categories.

area is markedly downgraded socially and economicallyin termsof the variables under this fact, furexamination. Notwithstanding therexamination revealed thatby distinguishing between those blocks of high and low quality housing, no distinguishing sociowere noted. In 1940 economic characteristics percent percent and sixty-four seventy-three of the low quality blocks lay in the middle and low categories, respectively,compared percent of and sixty-two with seventy-eight the high quality blocks in these same categories. The null hypothesisof no difference between the means was accepted at the .05 therewas again level. Using the 1950 figures, little contrast between the high and low quality housing blocks (Fig. 8). A considerable drop did occur in the percentagesin the middle category of the social rank scale, whereas the high social rank categorypicked and a distinctionbeup very significantly,

88

TRUMAN A. HARTSHORN

March

tween the sound and dilapidated blocks was revealed. The low quality housing blocks were seemingly gainingfasterithanthe sound blocks on the social rank scale, but for unknown reasons. Even though the 1940 figuresdid not detect a difference between the high and low quality blocks, spatially there was a marked contrast (Fig. 9). The substandard blocks with a low urbanizationindex and a middle social index rank were in the center of the city,primarily the east side of the river on adjacent to the centralbusiness district.The next higher categories,with average urbanization and middle social rank,were areas on the marginsof the more downgraded blocks and further fromthe centralbusiness district, in suggestingan improvement socioeconomic status toward the outer limits of the study area. Striking contrasts to these patterns were found in 1950 (Fig. 10). Since higher percentages of blocks were present in 1950 with respect to low urbanizationand middle norm social rank index cells, especially in the case of low quality housing blocks, a decline in relative standing of these blocks over the ten year intervalis suggested. This is portrayedby adding categories representing low urbanizationand low social rank to the categories representing average social rank and low urbanization (Fig. 10). The blocks fallinginto these low categorieswere the same as those with higher substantially in socioeconomiccharacteristics 1940 forboth high and low quality housing. Thus the overall social and economic decline has been most accelerated in the citycenterareas with considerable quantities of low quality housing. Although approximately one-fourth the of residential area is excluded fromthis analysis, the central portion of Cedar Rapids is degraded socially, economically,and physically to a degree not anticipated. The decline and intensification housing mediocrityis of demonstratedby this typology. Continued outward expansion of substandard housing seems inevitable given the run-downnature of the inner city.

characteristics, dependentvariable was cona structed to detect decennial changes. The dependentvariable for the 1940 analysiswas the increase in percentage of dilapidated housing between 1940 and 1950 divided by the percentage of sound housing in 1940. The original matrixof variables was then related to this dependent variable in a multiple stepwise regressionanalysis.43The degree,of association between the independent variables for 1940 and subsequent changes in housing over a ten year period was quite weak, and the analytical procedure was modified, after finding only slightlybetter resultsforthe 1950 data. In 1940, 273 of the 546 study blocks had negative values on the dependent variable, seventy-one were assigned zeros, and 202 had positive values. In 1950, 364 blocks had negative values, fiftyseven had zeros and 125 were positive. The negative numbers were assigned to blocks with a decrease in low quality housing or an increase in the proportionof high quality units. Zero numberswere assigned to blocks with no change in the proportion high and of low quality housing,and positivenumbersto blocks with an increase in the proportionof low quality. Roughly half or more of the blocks showed increases in housing quality in both periods. The blocks showingno change were eliminated, and separate analyses were performed on the blocks showing an incrementin substandardhousingand on thoseblocks showing decreases. A discriminant function 'thetwo of change groupswas exploredand a test of the significance of this twofold classification, using the seventeenoriginal variables, found it to be significant the .05 level in both at For the 1940study periods (Table 4) . 1950 period 243 (eighty-sixpercent) of the 282 blocks showing increases in low quality

43 Stepwise regression analysiswas used to insert into the equation at each step *that eligiblevariable which had the highestpartial correlation with the dependentvariable, given that all the previously selected variableswere in the equation. The minimum F-level for a variable to be retainedin the regression equation was set at .005. 44A generaldescription the application disof of criminant analysis for group classification can be Neighborhood Change found in W. W. Cooley and P. R. Lohnes, MultiIn orderto specifythe relationship between variate Statistics the BehavioralSciences (New for changes in housing quality and residential York: JohnWiley and Sons, 1962).

1971

INNER CITY

89

STRUCTURAL TYPOLOGY Cedar Rapids 1940

........~~~

~~ ~~

. ..........................

~~...

........._

SUBSTANDARD AVG. AVG. 0 FE ET 2000 LOW AVG. SOUND AVG. AVG. AVG.

HOUSING

URBANIZATION RANK SOCIAL URBANIZATION RANK SOCIAL HOUSING

LOW URBANIZA TION

SOCIAL RANK URBANIZATION SOCIAL RANK

[T]
f L

in 1940; the improvement socioeconomicstatus is apparent when the typology, FIG. 9. Structural to and middle social rank blocks are shownin relation those of lower status. average urbanization

90

TiwI MAN

A.

-1AHT1'S1101N

Mardch

STRUCTURAL TYPOLOGY Cedar Rapids 1950

.. . ... 2000 _FEET _

0

LOW

URBANIZATION

\ _ _

~~~~SOUBTNDARHOUSINGN RANK LOWG SOCIAL

LOW LOW URBANIZATION SOCIAL RANK

LOW LOW AVG. AVG. AVG.

URBANIZATION URBANIZATION SOCIAL RANK URBANIZATION SOCIAL RANK

m
t 1 ct ct

Fic;. 10. Strulcturlla tYPOlOgY, 1950; as in 1940 t11iS inapl

naturleof tlle central city. .stilgests tle dlown1gradedl

1971
TABLE 4.-HOUSING QUALITY CHANGE FUNCTION F-RATIOSa
Insignificant

INNER CITY
DISCRITNINANT

91

TABLE 5.-VARIABLES ASSOCIATED WITH HOUSING CHANGE BASED ON THE DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION 1940-1950 1950-1960

Variable

F-Ratio

variables

1940-1950Changein HousingQuality 37.41 SNDHOU HEVIND DLAPTD 29.86 RNTOCC OWNOCC 6.72 MULHOU DISCBD 5.47 HOUVAL TOPOGR VACANT 3.85 RNTOCC DENSTY OLDER HOU 1950-1960Changein HousingQuality HEVIND SNDHOU 30.19 DISCBD DLAPTD 29.66 HOUVAL 28.18 TOPOGR DENSTY MONRNT 16.20 A30-40 AOO-19 10.45 NHOS40 MULHOU 10.18 ABEF99 RNTOCC 7.05 A20-29 VACANT 4.75 OWNOCC 4.14
a Based on two groups; increases in low quality housing and increases in high quality housing. Significance determinedat the .05 level. 3.84 is the tabled critical value with 1 and 485 degrees of freedom. Source: calculated by author.

Increases in Substandard Housing Most Sensitive

(+)aSNDHOU

(+) DENSTY
(-) (-)

(+)
(-)

STATUS DISCBD HEVIND

OCCUP

OLDEST HOUSING DENSTY OCCUP STATUS DISCBD HOUVAL HEVIND

SNDHOU

(?)

(?) (?)
(?)
(-)

Least Sensitive (+) HOUVAL & MONRNT (-) DLAPTD (?) NEWEST HOUSING (?) OWNOCC (+) RNTOCC (?) VACANT
Most Sensitive (-)

(?) DLAPTD
(?) (?) OWNOCC RNTOCC VACANT

Increasesin Sound Housing

DENSTY (-) DENSTY

(+) OLDER
(?) (+)
Least Sensitive

HOUSING OWNOCC SNDHOU

(?)
(+)

OLDER HOUSING DILAPTD

housingwere correctly allocated on the basis and 105 of theirsocioeconomiccharacteristics (eighty-five percent) of the 124 blocks in the 1950-1960 period were correctlyidentified. This suggests that high standards of with respectto increases predictivereliability in substandardhousingcan be achieved with limited data on the socioeconomic structure of urban areas. Closer analysis of the variables most sigfunctionrelative nificantto the discriminant to increasesin substandardhousing indicates that occupancy status indices, distance from the central business district,and quantities of moderately housingwere mostreliable, old accordingto an F test (Table 5). The location variables, density, and indicators of the newestand oldesthousinglacked significance. A somewhat lower level of reliabilitywas noted in the 1940-19,50 and 1950-1960periods forblocks showingdecreases in the quantities of substandard housing; 239 (sixty-three perclassified cent) of 363 blocks were correctly in the firstperiod, and 126 (sixty-eight percent) of the 185 blocks in the second. This in suggeststhatimprovements housingquality stock are the resultof a more heterogeneous

(+) HOUVAL

(+) (+) (+)

SNDHOU HOUVAL DISCBD

or (-).

a The directionof relationshipis indicated by (+) Source: compiled by author.

group of factorsthan are declines. With this reasonable assurance that the two separate groups were significantly different, the relationship between blocks in each of these groups and the dependentvariable, based on decennial changes, was estimated by stepwise multiple regressionanalysis. Increases in Substandard Housing For blocks experiencingincreases in low quality housing a multiple of R of .59,was obtained for the 1940-1950 period, and the null hypothesisof no autocorrelateddisturbances was accepted.45 The proportion of
45 Since one has to be careful to guard against autocorrelation among the variables that might be indicators of the same variation, caution was exercised in interpreting results. When such disturbances are present in a problem involving least squares estimation, unbiased estimatorsare obtained, but serious underestimates of the sampling variance are likely,

92
TABLE 6.-INCREASE IN SUBSTANDARD MULTIPLE ON STEPWISE

TRUMAN A. HARTSHORN
HOUSING, BASED

March

dated condition. Although confusingat first glance, this indicates that substandardhousing over the ten year period has expanded Partial Standard regression spatiallyby affecting Regression of blocks formerly precoefficient coefficient error Variablea sound housing and not simplyby dominantly 1940-1950IncreaseRelatedto 1940 Variables in intensifying blocks already downgraded, -0.173 1.453 -3.454 SNDHOU process. which suggests a spatial diffusion 0.104 0.000 0.000 DENSTY variable was The density-of-dwelling-units -0.147 0.001 -0.002 HEVIND related positivelyto the change variable, in0.375 0.163 0.837 OWNOCC dicating that crowding is detrimental to 0.093 0.001 0.001 MULHOU housing quality. The highest negative re0.019 0.292 1.117 A20-29 0.099 0.001 0.001 DISCBD lationship, with the distance-from-heavy-in0.161 0.376 0.833 RNTOCC variable, indicates the expected dustrial-areas 0.160 0.373 VACANT 0.819 of negative externality industrialland use on 0.094 1.897 2.437 A30-39 withowner housing. The positiverelationship 0.094 1.167 1.491 A00-19 0.077 1.126 1.178 ABEF99 occupance reflects the under-maintenance 0.000 -0.050 -0.001 HOUVAL which accompanies a declining market for 0.038 0.004 0.002 TOPOGR housing. Even the owner occupied units are 0.027 0.000 0.001 MONRNT apparently becoming more dilapidated be-0.018 0.013 -0.003 DLAPTD cause a neglect of repairs is accompanying Variablesdropped: NONE obsolescence and increasing age. 1950-1960IncreaseRelatedto 1950 Variables The variables which appear most insensi3.844 0.042 SNDHOU 1.674 tive to quality declines are monthly rent, 0.220 2.245 5.202 AOO-19 of average value, proportion housing already 0.351 0.000 0.000 DENSTY dilapidated, and newest housing (Table 6). -0.268 0.004 -0.013 DISCBD 0.069 0.001 0.000 MONRNT The weak relationships may be due in part to 0.097 0.045 0.045 VACANT but they may also indicate data deficiencies, -0.201 1.921 -4.051 NHOS40 that housing does not necessarilydecline in 0.118 1.289 1.053 A30-39 value as its quality declines. As a residence 0.086 0.023 0.020 TOPOGR -0.115 0.067 MULHOU -0.079 filtersdown to lower income groups, which -0.079 2.141 -1.743 ABEF99 usually spend a higher proportionof their 0.047 3.336 1.603 A20-29 budget on housing,demand increases due to -0.043 0.034 -0.015 RNTOCC the larger number of persons bidding for 0.044 3.838 DLAPTD 1.723 0.034 0.000 given residences, keeping the price high. 0.000 HOUVAL -0.017 0.017 -0.003 OWNOCC the proportionof housing alFurthermore, -0.014 0.062 HEVIND -0.009 ready of low quality seems to be a relatively Variables dropped: NONE weak forcein increasingthe quantityof poor a Variables are listed in order of inclusion in regression of housing, due in part to the heterogeneity equation. housing in many blocks, and to the fact that Source: calculated by author. obsolescence and housing preferencesvary from family to family. Quality decline in sound housing was the most criticalvariable in accountingfor an increase in substandard declining neighborhoodsalso is arrested by and by removal of struchousing (Table 6), but the positive relation- code enforcement tures, although there is little evidence that ship indicated that,otherthingsbeing equal, in the greater the number of sound units (in thisactuallyoccurs more frequently poorer neighborhoods. relationto dilapidated units), the higher the Similarresultswere obtained for 19,50-1960 probabilityof change from sound to dilapiblocks showing quality decline in relationto which means the predictionsare inefficient. The the 1950 variables, although fewer blocks Durbin-Watson test statistic(d) was used to test were involved (125, as compared with 202 forthe presenceof such autocorrelated disturbances. in 1940). The multiple R was .57, with no For a discussion the Durbin-Watson of statistic see J. Johnston, Econometric Methods (New York: serious autocorrelated disturbances. Sound housing was the major variable associated McGraw-Hill, 1963), p. 192.
REGRESSION

1971
HOUSING CHANGE Cedar Rapids 1950-1960

INNER CITY

93
HOUSING CHANGE 1940 1950

Cedar Rapids

BLIOCKRS o xooo

~~~IN

SUBlSTlAND)ARD

HOUSING

Coy=

~~~~IN

SHO(WING,

INC:REASE-S HOU)SINGi

SUBlSTAND)ARD)

1950.

FIG. 11. Increasesin substandard housing,1940-

1960.

FIG. 12.

Increases in substandard housing, 1950-

with change,being positivelycorrelatedwith decline, indicatingthat increasingquantities of low quality housing were accruing to the higher, not lower quality blocks. Housing constructedprior to 1919 was related positivelyto the dependentvariable, as was gross housingdensity, showingthat age and density are negative factors. Distance fromthe central business districtloaded positively,emfrom phasizing that decline increases farther the city center. Occupancy status was quite but significant, the signs on renteroccupancy and owneroccupancyswitchedin comparison with the!previous decade, making them unreliableindicators.As in 1940,the dependent variable appeared insensitive average rent to and value figures. A poor relationshipwith the distance-from-heavy-industry variable indicated that decline is occurringnearer nonresidential land but at greaterdistancesfrom the centralbusinessdistrict.Substantially the same blocks were changingin 1940-1950 and 1950-1960 (Figs. 11 and 12); a switch from owner to renteroccupancy of these blocks is indicated by the regression analysis and sample means.

In 1940 the mean of the renteroccupancy variable for the entire study area and the mean based on blocks showing increases in low quality housing were the same (fortyseven percent). However, for 1950 the entire study area mean of thirty-six percent (a decline from 1940) is less than the mean (forty-onepercent) based on increases in substandardhousing. The difference between these two 1950 means is significant, the as null hypothesis was rejected at the five percent level. Thus the amount of tenant ocin cupancy differs 1950 between the original studyarea and the area with increasesin low quality housing even with an overall decline in renteroccupancy; blocks with increases in low quality housing have significantly more tenantoccupants,unlike the situationin 1940. This change probably reflectsthe filteringdown process. Tipping-point. The determination a criticallevel above of which low quality housing tends to increase uncheckedwould give additional insightinto conditionsassociated with its expansion. This would be the prolevel, or tipping-point,

94

TRUMAN A. HARTSHORN
TABLE 7.-INCREASE STEPWIIISE IN SOUND HOUSING, REGRESSION

March
BASED ON MULTIPLE

portion of loxv quality housing most often associated with continued expansion and/or intensification, assuming other conditionsremained the same. The original study area had a mean of fortypercent dilapidated housing by block in 1940 and thirty percent in 1950, but the blocks with an increase in substandard housing had much lower percentages (thirty and twentypercent for 1940 and 1950, respectively). These latter figures are interpreted as tipping-pointsor thresholds for increased substandard housing in Cedar Rapids. These thresholdfigures are significantly affected by the base percentage of substandardhousing; given a larger percentage of substandardhousing, a higher value would be needed in order to maintain the expansion process. The tipping-point is somewhat lower than the mean percentage of substandardhousing for the entire study area in both periods. The tipping-point runs sixtyto seventypercentof the overall mean, which shows that the critical levels for expansion are loxverthan might be expected. Although more testing is needed in other urban areas, in Cedar Rapids continued increases in substandardhousingare apparently associated wvith relativelylow initial proportions of loxv quality housing, implyingthat far more of the city is susceptible to decline than is currentlyrecognized, and that increases are foundnot in the worse but better blocks, relativelyspeaking. It is implicit if not explicit that these figures indicate a spatial growthprocess. Increases in Sound Housing Blocks with increases in the proportionof sound housingmightalso be expected to have high initial proportions sound housing as of xvellas high value housing,but this was not the case (Table 7). Instead, variables representing housing densities,the proportionof owneroccupied units,and proportion older of housing were most closely associated with in improvements housing quality. A negative relationship with each of these variables suggests that improvementsare occurring in lowverdensity, renter occupied, older resiclential areas. Apparently the filter-down process is being reversed by private sector renewal in these blocks. Smaller multipleR's

VTariablesa

Regression coefficient

Standard error

regression coefficient

Partial

1940-1950 Increase Related to 1940 Variables ABEF99 -0.564 1.109 DENSTY 0.000 0.000 OWNOCC -0.014 0.011 A30-39 2.996 2.333 VACANT 0.025 0.026 HEVIND -0.001 0.001 DLAPTD -0.010 0.010 MONRNT -0.000 0.000 DISCBD -0.000 0.001 A20-29 0.036 1.430 AOO-19 0.630 1.232 MULHOU -0.000 0.001 TOPOGR -0.001 0.002 Variables dropped: SNDHOU, DISCBD DLAPTD -0.022 DENSTY -0.000 A30-39 4.069 ABEF99 0.266 TOPOGR -0.002 MULHOU -0.006 HEVIND -0.005 MONRNT -0.000 VACANT 0.200 A20-29 -0.275 HOUVAL 0.000 0.018 OWNOCC RNTOCC 0.017 NHOS40 -0.045 AOO-19 -0.045 Variables dropped: SNDHOU,
" Variables
Equation. Source:

-0.032 -0.079 -0.077 0.080 0.061 0.066 -0.066 -0.055 -0.027 0.041 0.032 -0.020 -0.017

1950-1960 Increase Related to 1950 Variables 0.016 0.000 0.772 0.207 0.001 0.005 0.004 0.000 0.016 0.350 0.000 0.016 0.016 0.135 0.224
HOUVAL,
inclusion in

-0.073 -0.140 0.273 0.069 -1.246 -0.068 -0.066 -0.056 0.066 -0.042 0.023 0.058 0.055 -0.018 -0.011 RNTOCC
Regression

listed

in

order

of

calculated

by author.

(.32 and .54) were found for both 1940 and 1950 for blocks showing improvements than forthoseshowinga decline,supporting nothe tion discussed previously the concerning more complexprocess underlying these changes. It is also significant thatthisimprovement not is sensitiveto distancefromthe centralbusiness district, implyingthat these changes are occurringthroughout the study area. It mightbe expected, on the basis of the discussion above, that blocks showing imwould be closer to the citycenter provements than those experiencingdecline. In Cedar Rapids this is only partially true (Figs. 13 and 14). This finding suggests that more attention should be given areas that have the

1971
HOUSING CHANGE 1940-1950

INNER

CITY

95
HOUSING CHANGE 1950-1960

2000

FEE,

BLOCKS SHOWING INCREASES IN SOUND HOUSING

.. .... FEET l

BLOCKS
t

SHOWING
SOUND

INCREASES

IN

HOUSING

Fic. 13.

Increases in sound housing, 1940-1950.

Fic. 14. Increases soundhousing, in 1950-1960.

potentialfor decline, in addition to the cur- curs only aftersevere downgrading has taken rentconcernwith areas in the innercity that place. are already severely downgraded. To date, Recalling the temporal and spatial procpublic renewal processes have concentrated esses of change discussed earlier, striking solely on the most downgraded areas. parallels are noted. An underlying process is Significantly, blocks experiencing decreases suggested by the tendency for areas most in low qualityhousinghave much higherpro- severely downgraded to improve, whereas portionsof substandard housing (forty-four areas with betterquality housing are declinpercentfor the formerand twenty-nine per- ing, and by the observationthat decline is cent for the latter) than those experiencing firstfelt in more centralareas and is experiincreases. This, along with previousfindings enced elsewherein relationto the rate of deconcerningvariables associated with quality cline in these centrallocations.Thus, decline improvements,indicates that increases in and expansion,improvement and contraction sound housing are mainly accruing to the of housingquality are apparently instancesof most downgraded blocks, whereas decreases the same basic process of residentialchange. in sound housingare occurringin areas with CRITIQUE AND COMMENT lower proportionsof substandard housing. Hoover and Vernon observed a similar The foregoinganalysis suggests that the process in New York City.46They called this innercityis decliningin responseto the interthe fifthstage in the natural evolution of action to several forces. Although Cedar residential areas. These observations reinforce Rapids does not share the problem of ghetto the notion that decline is a continual,if not expansion with most larger North American inevitable,process that can potentially affect cities, it does show quality decline due to migration, all housing,and that significant renewal oc- aging of housing,and intra-urban particularlyevident throughthe filter-down 46 Hoover and Vernon, op. cit., footnote 21, pp. process. 194-98. Data limitationswere a handicap in this

96

TRUMAN A. HARTSHORN

March

analysis due to the meager economic indicators available on a block basis. Nevertheless, distinct temporaland spatial trendswere evidentin the housing stock of the innercity of Cedar Rapids. Apparently most downthe graded blocks were being upgraded in the decline 1940-1960period,whereas continuing was affecting higherquality residentialareas. These observations suggest that residential quality decline in North American cities is most affected by expansion of low income (poverty) areas, taking the form of ghetto expansion in larger cities, and by outward intra-urban migration the part of virtually on all socioeconomic groups as their needs and incomes allow. The first process can be thoughtof as having a multiple nuclei pattern,whereas the latter is stronglysectoral. These dynamicforces,when juxtaposed with the relativelyfixed housing stock of the city which follows a concentricring pattern (in terms of bands of homogeneous neighborhoods relative to age, density,and building styles), suggest that decline would be pervasive throughout such relatively uniform neighborhoods. Over time, adjacent rings of housing are adversely affected, and the process becomes most accelerated along sectors experiencingthe highest rates of outmigration and, in particular, those areas away fromthe expandingghetto(Fig. 15). Empirical data from Cedar Rapids support this

SPATIAL PERSPECTIVE OF RESIDENTIAL QUALITY DECLINE

Central Business District

Fic. 15. Conceptualization residential of decline, showing the interaction a) the expanding of ghetto, b) relatively uniform fixed housing stock,and c) intraurban migration.

contention, and although its applicabilityto other cities is suggested, this remains to be proven.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Lawrence A. Brownin designingthe problem, and his suggestions improving for early drafts of thispaper.