World Economic Forum on the Middle East

Learning from the Future

Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt 18-20 May 2008

Report
The views expressed in this publication do not
necessarily reflect those of the World Economic Forum.

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Contents

Page 3
Preface

Page 4
Meeting Overview

Page 10
Scenarios Series

Page 18
The WorkSpace

Page 20
Acknowledgements

1 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

2 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
Preface
Since the World Economic Forum on the Middle East last
met in Jordan 12 months ago, the Middle East has
continued to be at the epicentre of global current affairs.
The Annapolis conference, the US “surge” in Iraq and the
deadlock in Lebanon all made regular headlines. But this
year developments in business and economics arguably
had an equally strong impact around the world. The Gulf
helped to fill a liquidity gap created by the credit crunch,
massive investment projects were launched, the dollar’s
slide put pressure on currency pegs, and inflation and
rising food prices caused concern across the region.
This year’s programme addressed these current issues,
while also refocusing attention on the long-term trends and
opportunities that lie ahead. The theme “Learning from the
Future” reflected our contention that by considering how
the world may evolve in 15-20 years time we can draw
important lessons for today. The combination of economic,
political and social factors at play in the Middle East makes
this year a particularly fitting time for such an exercise.
First, the oil windfall for the GCC may reach an estimated
US$ 9 trillion by 2020, assuming the oil price averages
over US$ 100 a barrel in this period. How this vast wealth
will be spent is a question not just for today’s leaders, but
also for future generations. As the region invests, it needs
to avoid short-termism and think ahead to account for
emerging long-term global trends if it is to make the most
of the opportunities on offer.
Second, on the political front, the last few years have seen
a major shift in the political map of the region, not least
through the regime change in Iraq and the rising influence
of Iran. These and other changes have complicated the
picture, with a web that overlaps alliances, loyalties and
issues making it difficult to separate the different issues. As
we await a change in the US presidency, a reassessment
of strategies for peace and stability in the region seems to
be in order.
Finally, demographics – a silent but unstoppable force in
the region – will transform Arab societies in the next two
decades. 60% of the population is under 30 years of age,
placing enormous strains on health and education. Leaders
in the region need a clear vision of how societies will evolve
in the future so that the right steps can be taken.
All of the above points to a need to take a long view even
when current crises demand our attention. Scenarios are a
tool to help us to do just that and, in Sharm El Sheikh, they
were integrated for the first time into the programme of a
World Economic Forum meeting. The Scenarios Series
examined the impact of three global scenarios to 2025: the
Hyperlinked World, the Sustainable World and the
Multipolar World. Participants immersed themselves in
these worlds, using the fresh perspective they provided to
examine the impact of long-term trends on current policy
priorities.
The report outlines the main themes of the meeting and
offers a taste of the discussions in Sharm El Sheikh. The
first section is an overview of the sessions on this year’s
regional agenda. The second paints a picture of the three
scenarios, drawing on the insights and ideas developed in
the Scenarios Series. The final section covers sessions in
the WorkSpace, an incubator of innovative solutions and a
focus of creative thinking for the Forum’s diverse
participants.
The World Economic Forum would like to thank the Co-
Chairs of the meeting: Khalid Abdulla-Janahi, Chairman of
the Executive Committee, Shamil Bank of Bahrain;
Mohammed Alshaya, Chairman, Alshaya Group; H.R.H.
The Duke of York, UK Special Representative for
International Trade and Investment; Yuriko Koike, Member
of the House of Representatives, National Diet of Japan;
Paul Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer, TransFair;
and Jimmy Wales, Founder and Chair Emeritus, Wikia.
Sherif El Diwany Daniel Davies
Director, Associate Director,
Head of Middle East Middle East
3 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
Meeting Overview
“The current international economic
crisis introduces many problems where
social and economic dimensions are
intertwined, as well as other issues
such as climate change, water, food
and energy supplies, and standards of
living. The international community
needs to recalculate the cost of using
agriculture for energy.”
Muhammad Hosni Mubarak, President of Egypt
Try as we might to learn from the past, to draw from
our wellspring of experience, too often memory serves
as but an impenetrable labyrinth that freezes us in
place. The young, unburdened by such strictures, can
sometimes provide remarkable clarity about the path
we should follow. So it was that one of the youth
representatives drawn by the World Economic Forum,
with the help of the British Council, summed up what
so many of their elders at this year’s meeting seemed
to be striving in so many words to say. “The
relationship between government and the people has
to change,” said Amira Abdel-Aziz, a young Egyptian
woman. “We have to look at the people as the highest
authority.”
4 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
“After years of delay, progress is
possible. After 60 years, it is past time
to create a new basis for the future, one
that recognizes the needs of all.”
H.M. King Abdullah Ibn Al Hussein of the Hashemite
Kingdom of Jordan
In session after session, it was her message that
bubbled up, a message of promise and yet of
exasperation, a yearning to leave behind the baggage
of a vexatious history and convert the dividends of the
present economic boom into a happier, more
equitable and sustainable future. Participants took to
heart the meeting’s theme “Learning from the Future”.
In a series of sessions, they considered three global
scenarios – the Hyperlinked, Sustainable and
Multipolar Worlds – and the challenges and
opportunities that would confront the Middle East in
the year 2025. By determining the kind of future the
region and its people, particularly the youth, want and
deserve, the 1,500 business, government and civil
society leaders from 60 countries gathered in Sharm
El Sheikh to set the course for how to achieve it.
“The purpose of the World Economic
Forum on the Middle East is to address
and hopefully advance all the issues on
the regional agenda and to do so, in the
best World Economic Forum tradition,
in a multistakeholder framework, a
public-private partnership approach.”
Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World
Economic Forum
Shed the politics of resentment, the paternalistic
patterns of rule, participants urged, and convert the
region’s vast oil wealth into skilled human capital that
can stimulate creativity and innovation, transforming
the region’s disparities into entrepreneurial opportunity.
“The Middle East craves peace, stability and
development,” said Egyptian President Muhammad
Hosni Mubarak. “It has the strategic, natural and
human resources to realize it.”
It was a sentiment echoed by US President George
W. Bush in an address on the meeting’s opening day.
“This region is home to energetic people, a powerful
spirit of enterprise, and tremendous resources,” he
“America appreciates the challenges
facing the Middle East, yet the light of
liberty is beginning to shine … nations
across the region have the opportunity
to move forward with bold reforms.”
George W. Bush, President of the United States of America
said. “It is capable of a very bright future – a future in
which the Middle East is a place of innovation and
discovery, driven by free men and women.”
Many rejected Bush’s proposals, but few could object
to his message. “We are very rich in this part of the
world, but at the micro level we’re very poor – in terms
of technology, innovation, creating social welfare and
entrepreneurship,” said Khalid Abdulla-Janahi,
Chairman of Bahrain’s Ithmaar Bank and one of the
co-chairs of the meeting.
Rich, there is no question. The aggregate numbers
across the Middle East point to what one participant
called an oil-fuelled Arab Renaissance, with 6%
average regional economic growth. As oil crests at
US$ 135 a barrel, the Gulf is pulling in more than
US$ 400 billion a year in oil revenues, providing a
5 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
bulwark against the economic storm clouds brewing
in the US and Europe, and recalling to many the
heady days of the late 1970s.
“Rising global energy demands have brought
abundant financial liquidity,” said H.M. King Abdullah
Ibn Al Hussein of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
“We need to do all we can to invest these assets in
the growth of our own economies. This will make a
direct contribution to our future.”
That burden will inevitably fall to some extent on the
region’s so-called sovereign wealth funds, public
granaries of the bumper harvest of petrodollars.
Scattered around the Gulf nations, these vast funds
are the result of the wider redistribution of global
income from the industrialized West to Asia, the
Middle East and the rest of the developing world.
Though still only a tiny sliver of overall global wealth –
about US$ 3 trillion of assets in a universe of US$ 190
trillion – they have nevertheless attracted controversy
thanks to high-profile purchases of stakes in Western
financial institutions such as Citigroup and UBS.
6 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
“There are new enlightened young
leaders that are taking charge with
vision and have created fantastic
models for business. But these are
exceptional. We are not doing enough
to invest in education, reform and better
governance practices. We need a
partnership between these leaders and
government to do better for the masses
– which are the youth.”
Mohammed Alshaya, Executive Chairman, Alshaya Group,
Kuwait
Many financial experts say the funds are doing a much
better job in this boom of managing their assets than
they did in the 1970s, when they entrusted them to
Western banks that in turn invested them largely in
Latin American debt – with unhappy results. Now, said
Fouad M. Alaeddin, Managing Partner for the Middle
East at Ernst & Young in Jordan, they are taking
strategic equity stakes that will promote the transfer of
technology and business knowledge to the region.
F
M
 Leader in the Spotlight – Prime Minister of the
Palestinian National Authority

It was no surprise that Salam Fayyad, Prime Minister of the Palestinian

National Authority, arrived in Sharm El Sheikh with the usual litany of
political and diplomatic issues to address. But he surprised some
participants when he promoted a major business conference in
Bethlehem and pushed investment opportunities in sectors like
pharmaceuticals. He appeared as a national leader boosting a
promising economy. “There is another face of Palestine that we intend
to show the world,” he said. “There is money to be made here and
there are great opportunities for those who come early.”

Asked about prospects for investment after the Bethlehem conference,

Fayyad replied that he was so excited about the meeting itself that he
hadn’t given much thought to the day after. “The main point in doing
this is to send a signal,” he said.

Some of the main political issues were analysed from their economic
flip side – take the roadblocks and other restrictions on the mobility of
people and vehicles. “In economic and business terms, the siege
means higher transportation and distribution costs,” he said. “In
business terms, you cannot be competitive.”

The funds themselves might disagree, however. They
have sought to mollify critics in the West by saying
they are strictly profit-driven and have no strategic
objective other than to maximize profits. But just as
they face criticism in the West, so voices closer to
home are saying that the funds ought to take a more
proactive role in funding development in the Middle
East.
Despite the oil money flooding into sovereign wealth
funds, roughly 24% of the region’s population still lives
on less than US$ 2 a day. High birth rates have
created a demographic bulge that will create as many
as 100 million new jobseekers in the Middle East in
the next 10-15 years. “When we think of the Middle
East and the tremendous oil revenues we tend to
forget that this reality exists in the Middle East as
well,” said co-chair Paul Rice, President and Chief
Executive Officer of TransFair.

Experts point to rising joblessness as a reservoir for

political and economic unrest, but a more explosive
combination is the growing disparity of incomes – a
by-product of globalization. Some say this divergence
has virtually eradicated the Middle East’s middle class.
“We still have lots of poverty in an area awash with
money,” said Mohamed M. ElBaradei, Director-General
of the International Atomic Energy Agency. “Poverty is
the most powerful weapon of mass destruction.”

The recent spike in food prices has only made matters

worse, sparking riots in Egypt and forcing
governments around the region to take action, often
by providing subsidies or capping food prices. Some
“With tremendous oil wealth, it’s blame competition with biofuels for the rise. But
demand for biofuels is directly proportional to the
sometimes easy to forget that the
rising price of oil, so higher food costs appear to be
Middle East faces so many of the an unintended but inevitable side effect of the region’s
challenges of other developing world oil boom.
countries: poverty, hunger, joblessness
Unfortunately, it is a side effect that hits poor nations
and environmental degradation.”
harder than their oil-rich neighbours. The instability
food shortages may cause them, however, is a threat
Paul Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer, TransFair, to the entire region, including the Gulf.
USA; Social Entrepreneur

7 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

From left to right: Jaime Morales Carazo, Vice-President of Nicaragua; Elias Antonio Saca, President of El Salvador; Patrick Manning, Prime
Minister of Trinidad and Tobago; Susan L. Segal, President and Chief Executive Officer, Council of the Americas, USA; Manuel Zelaya Rosales,
Eye on Algeria
“We are the most liberal and open
country in the whole region,” declared
Abdel Hamid Temmar, Minister of
Industry and Investment Promotion of
Algeria. “But we are not perceived that
way.”
Some people have taken notice – and
many of them are making good money.
Riad Fechkeur, Co-President, Société
Red Med, Algeria, is a local entrepreneur
whose company grew into a leading
service supplier for the oil and gas
industry.
Nassef Sawiris, Chief Executive Officer,
Orascom Construction Industries, Egypt,
happily waved the Algerian banner after
eight profitable years as foreign investor
in the country. “Every year we announce
significant amounts of new
investments.”
Sawiris called attention to one telltale
aspect of the labour market. “Algeria
uses its entire workforce,” he said. “The
role of women in the workforce was one
of our biggest surprises. It speaks of a
modern society when you can work on
all cylinders.”
But Hisham Ezz-Al-Arab, Chairman and
Managing Director, Commercial
International Bank (CIB), Egypt, was
more impressed by local residents when
he decided to take his bank into Algeria.
“You would talk to taxi drivers and other
people,” he said. “Everyone was very
well educated. You can talk about
violence, but the people I spoke with
love their government and want to
grow.”

Indeed, participants agreed that political strife poses other hand, Palestinian leaders need to be able to
the biggest threat to regional stability, particularly the prevent militant attacks against Israel. “Israel has a
war in Iraq, strife in Lebanon and the 60-year-old right to live in peace,” said US Congressman Brian
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some said a resolution of Baird.
the Palestinian question remains a prerequisite to
regional peace and prosperity. A young Saudi
summed up the sense of frustration: “Everyone shares
a sense that it is not going anywhere. Our lives have
been dominated by this conflict.”

Palestine may be the stumbling block, but it has

proved a handy scapegoat for many. “How much
further ahead would we be today if these last eight
years had been years of peace and stability, if all this
time a sovereign Palestine had been building,
extremists and external forces had not had this issue
to manipulate?” King Abdullah II of Jordan wondered.
Abdulla-Janahi went further, urging regional leaders to
stop using Palestine to divert attention from domestic
issues. “I think it’s important not to hijack the
Palestinian issue,” he said. “Leaders have used the “One of the main things I see when I
Palestinian issue for them not to create the
look at the impact of the Internet, we
environment to create entrepreneurship and equal
opportunities for people.” have about one billion people online
and the next 5-10 years another billion
Participants tackled the Palestinian conflict on several will come online, and they’ll come from
levels, including a workshop that presupposed peace
countries outside North America and
in 2025 and imagined a process to get there. The
consensus was that peace would require a two-state Europe. A lot of people hear about the
solution that overcomes years of mistrust to find mass extremes in the Middle East, but who
support. Israel needs to demonstrate that it is serious we don’t hear from is ordinary people.
about halting encroachments into Palestinian territory
But the Internet empowers ordinary
by settlers and soldiers. “Did they make up their
minds that they need to make peace?” asked Ahmed people who can communicate to the
Aboul Gheit, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. On the world.”
Jimmy Wales, Founder and Chair Emeritus, Wikia, USA; Young
Global Leader
8 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
 Leader in the Spotlight – Prime Minister of Pakistan

Though politics occupy centre stage in
Pakistan at the moment, the economy has not
been forgotten. Indeed the resilience of the
economy can be traced largely to the
consistency of policies even as governments
have come and gone amid the political
turmoil. Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani, Prime
Minister of Pakistan, promises more of the
same: “There will be no paradigm shift.”
Looking at the numbers cited by Gillani, no
paradigm shift seems necessary. Pakistan is
projecting record 6% growth this fiscal year.
Much of this success can be traced to
reforms like deregulation and privatization.
Many state-owned enterprises have been sold
in discount initial public offerings (IPOs)
designed to spread ownership widely among
citizens.
Continuing in that reformist vein, Gillani plans
to include a new energy policy, incentives for
microfinance and the adoption of Basel II
standards in the financial sector. To address
the commodities crisis, rising prices and food
shortages, agriculture will receive special
attention. “Agriculture is the backbone of our
country,” said the prime minister.
Continued economic progress will hinge
largely on the partnerships that Pakistan has
forged with the international community. In the
prime minister’s view, the country is well-
placed geographically to serve as a
“bridgehead for cooperation” in the region,
including for China. “We are ready to reap the
economic benefits of our strategic location,”
he said.
“A new and democratic Pakistan will have a
bright future. Pakistan is now ready for
business,” Gillani declared. “I am sure we can
deliver this with the help of our friends across
the world.”

Prospects for peace almost seemed more attainable Many participants said that it is critical to look beyond
in Iraq, as participants heard from Iraqi officials how the obstacles in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and the
the country had taken great strides towards relative perceptions among some that a clash of civilizations is
normality. Al Qaeda, though still a threat, has been brewing in the Middle East. Investors, they argued,
pushed out of the cities and Iraq’s own security forces should concentrate on the promise that these conflicts
are in control of most of the country. Less certain is
how US presidential elections might affect America’s
commitment to Iraq and regional stability. While neither
Democrats nor Republicans are likely to pull out of
Iraq entirely, it seemed certain that the US, in
response to public fatigue with the war, will reduce its
presence in the country after elections.

When it comes to the need for conflict resolution and

reconciliation, the business community might look to
religious and spiritual leaders for guidance. In a private
session before the meeting began, members of the
Community of West and Islam Dialogue, the Forum’s
initiative aimed at fostering interfaith communications,
discussed “The Common Word” statement issued last
year by 138 Muslim scholars addressed to Christian
leaders that sought to underscore common ideals, “There are new enlightened leaders,
notably the principle of loving one’s neighbour. The young, that are taking charge with
landmark document sparked an ongoing dialogue vision and have created fantastic
between representatives of both religions and
attracted the interest of Jewish leaders. The
models for business. But these are
Community of West and Islam Dialogue members exceptional. We are not doing enough
discussed the importance of solidarity and mutual in investment and education, in reform
respect among members of diverse faith communities and better governance practices and
to achieve peace and the need to dispel the myth that
religions are cause for conflict in the world. They also
we need a partnership between these
focused on how to better involve the business people and government to do better for
community in the global interfaith discourse and the masses – which are the youth.”
attract private sector support.
Mohammed Alshaya, Executive Chairman, Alshaya Group,
Kuwait

9 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

Eye on Kazakhstan

President Nursultan A. Nazarbayev welcomed Perhaps those factors help explain the US$ 10
participants to a special Kazakhstan Evening on billion deal that Gulf Finance House, an
18 May to herald the country’s growing economic investment bank, signed with Kazakhstan to
and political ties with the Middle East. “Everybody develop the Caspian Energy Hub, a commercial
understands the political importance of the Middle and technical centre for the oil and gas industry
East,” said Marat Tazhin, Minister of Foreign designed to attract companies from Kazakhstan
Affairs of Kazakhstan. “Because we are part of the and neighbouring countries. “It is an attractive
Muslim world, there are also historical, cultural place for oil and gas companies from the Caspian
and human dimensions.” region to put their headquarters,” said Esam
Janahi, Chairman, Gulf Finance House, Bahrain,
Middle Eastern investors are likely to feel as if they and Young Global Leader.
are walking on familiar ground in Kazakhstan,
argued Vahan Zanoyan, Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer, PFC Energy International,
Switzerland. Kazakhstan’s stage of economic
development is similar to that of many of the
region’s countries 15-18 years ago, he noted. In
his opinion, that, along with cultural familiarity,
increases the comfort level there for Middle
Eastern investors.

and post-conflict zones hold for the future. “Arab
states, especially oil-rich nations, must seize this
opportunity to invest aggressively in the Palestinian
people,” urged US President Bush. “The Arab world
needs to get its act together and embrace Iraq,” said
Iraq Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih.
Most of all, though, participants were adamant that
governments need to step back and give way to a
more democratic, free market form that draws on the
ingenuity and self-reliance of their citizens.
“Government has to shrink. It’s too fat. They have to
let go, they have to privatize, they have to allow
entrepreneurship,” said co-chair Mohammed Alshaya,
Executive Chairman of Alshaya Group in Kuwait.
This is not just any entrepreneurship, but one that
uses market-based approaches to solving social and
environmental problems – social entrepreneurship.
“The challenge for us now is to look at new models
that can address poverty and hunger, and
marginalization and environmental degradation,” said
Paul Rice. “We need a bottom-up approach.”
Precedent lies in Islam, with its emphasis on zakat, or
charity, and Islamic finance also emphasizes sharing
risks. Modern day sensibilities, too, are forcing
companies to be more attuned with the needs of their
communities. “The new generation is not interested in
working for a company that is environmentally
unfriendly,” said Fadi Ghandour, Founder and Chief
Executive Officer of Jordan’s Aramex International.
Technology has of course become a major catalyst for
change. Though only 2% of people in the Middle East
have access to the Internet, the rapid spread of
cellular phones and satellite television has connected
the Arab world to the global economy in ways that
cannot be reversed. “We do not hear much from
everyday people; the Internet can change that,” said
Jimmy Wales, Founder and Chair Emeritus of Wikia, a
Young Global Leader and a co-chair. “It is going to
change a lot of the political dynamics.”
While technology is transcending borders,
governments need to help break them down,
participants said, by lowering barriers to free trade
and investment and working towards a common
market of 18 nations bound by language and culture.
Only by doing so, they warned, would big investors
such as sovereign wealth funds find it worthwhile to
sink more assets into the region. “It is high time to
break down these barriers,” said Yasser El Mallawany,
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Egypt’s EFG-
Hermes Holding. “If we don’t do that, a lot of
resources of oil wealth will go again to the West and
not be invested regionally.”

10 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

Leader in the Spotlight – Vice-Prime Minister and Minister of
Foreign Affairs of Israel

In a lively session of questions and answers, Tzipi
Livni, Vice-Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign
Affairs of Israel, painted a cautiously optimistic
picture of successful negotiations that would lead
to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Livni reminded participants that the original 1947
United Nations partition plan was supposed to
lead to the creation of two states. “This is
important to say,” she said. “Sometimes there is a
perception that the creation of Israel led to the
conflict, but the idea was to end the conflict by
creating two states” in 1947.
“I know that I represent the thinking of the vast
majority of Israelis, not just my party, and not just
my government, who believe that the creation of a
Palestinian state is needed not only because of
pressure from the international community but
because it is in our own interest,” she said. “We
are trying to reduce the pressure and frustration
on both sides. We are determined to continue the
negotiations. It would be understandable to not
negotiate on the days of funerals [of people killed
in the ongoing violence], but I have decided to
continue. I expect the Palestinians and the Arab
world to do the same.”
Livni gave no specifics on the timing of an accord.
“If it takes more time, it takes more time,” she
said. “We need to build on basic pillars.” She
added that a specific timeline could lead to high
expectations and frustration should things not
move as quickly as planned.
“The peace process has to reach an
understanding – not just a slogan,” she noted.
“We need to make it concrete. It is not enough to
come to an agreement that is vague and that
cannot be implemented.”

Breaking down the barriers to more sustainable

growth will also require broader education,
participants said. Investment in vocational schools is
necessary to impart relevant skills so that jobseekers
can take the jobs created for them. It will certainly
require harnessing the 50% of the workforce now left
largely on the margins – women.

But, most of all, participants concluded, it will require

gradually matching the strides taken by the region’s
physical infrastructure with its political infrastructure.
The Arab world needs fair and efficient legal systems,
regulatory transparency, an open media, and free and
fair elections. However it may evolve to fit regional
realities, it will require democracy. “Democracy has
problems, but eventually the voice of the people has “Over the years, Japan-Middle East
to be heard,” said Abdulla-Janahi. “That’s the only
relations have developed steadily in the
way I believe entrepreneurship can start.”
economic realm. However, we would
like to build multilayered relationships
encompassing areas such as politics,
the economy, environment, culture,
science and technology to further
strengthen our partnership.”

Yuriko Koike, Member of the House of Representatives,

National Diet of Japan

11 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

 Scenarios Series
In more than 10 sessions at the 2008 World
Economic Forum on the Middle East in Sharm El
Sheikh, Egypt, over 1,500 business, government and
civil society leaders from 60 countries considered
three scenarios for the world in 2025 – the
Hyperlinked World, the Sustainable World and the
Multipolar World. These are based on views of how
the global economic, political, social and technological
environments may develop. They take into account
trends that are already playing out today. These are
not forecasts but instead are plausible and challenging
futures that could become
reality as different
“Think beyond the
assumptions and
unthinkable.” uncertainties unfold.
Each scenario raises critical issues for the Middle East
and all its people that must be addressed if they are
to prosper in 2025. Among the key questions posed:
How will governments react to the increasing
empowerment and activism of civil society? How will
power shift as a result? How can businesses balance
profitability and sustainability? What position will the
Middle East, given its energy resources and financial
wealth, carve out for itself in a world with multiple
centres of geopolitical and economic power? By
tackling these questions of tomorrow, participants
aimed to “learn from the future” – to determine what
can and should be done now to find new approaches
and solutions to even the most intractable global
challenges.
12 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
Of the scenarios, participants regarded the
Sustainable World as the most challenging probably
because it is the one
that is based most on “We need to ensure we
hope. Even with a 17-
have pragmatic answers,
year time horizon, to
achieve the level of and no government in the
sustainable practice region today can afford to
outlined in this scenario not have a plan for its
would require future.”
immediate concerted
action and considerable collaboration among
business, government and civil society stakeholders in
the region and across the world.
In the Hyperlinked World, meanwhile, participants
regarded as unstoppable how technology is driving
the greater interconnectedness and openness of the
world. With respect to the Multipolar World, they
accepted as inevitable the rise in economic stature
and geopolitical clout of China, India and other Asian
countries. In all three scenarios, civil society is bound
to erode the strength of the state. That is certainly a
global trend that is already evident today.
The opposite page summarizes the main elements of
the three scenarios. These are then expanded in the
subsequent pages as stories that incorporate the
main ideas and insights generated during the
Scenarios Series.
The Hyperlinked World

The Hyperlinked World of 2025 is a world of possibilities. Advancements in

physical, technological and cyber infrastructure cause communication
costs to drop sharply, while people, businesses and governments
experience a great leap forward in the degree of interconnectedness. The
global order in 2025 is governed by networks, communities and interest
groups.

The Sustainable World

The Sustainable World of 2025 is a world dealing with a soaring

population, rapid urbanization and ongoing climate change problems.
Water and food scarcities lead to new pockets of instability and force a
major global response to emerge into a new sustainable order of politics
and business. The emergence of a planet-wide consciousness of the
environment forces businesses and governments to adopt new policies of
corporate global citizenship and sustainability.

The Multipolar World

In the Multipolar World of 2025, the epicentre of the global economy is in

the East. New centres of power, fuelled by strong growth, emerge, while
global energy demand puts oil exporters under pressure. The trade and
investment environment focuses on the new Asian powers that play an
ever more assertive role in international politics. The Middle East is
engulfed in a geopolitical competition for influence, power and ideas.

13 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

 The Hyperlinked World
Key Outcomes
• Improve governance to increase the transparency of institutions and corporations
• Empower people to break barriers and open up society, while paying attention to conflict
prevention and resolution
• Overhaul the education sector, focusing on the primary, secondary and vocational levels
• Reinvent the region’s approach to talent management
Key Questions
• How might the role of government and business leaders be affected in a Hyperlinked
World? Will the state be able to retain power?

In 2025, during the World Economic Forum’s Virtual Annual Meeting, participants gathered in the digital Congress Hall for a
plenary session featuring five new leaders from government, business and civil society in the Middle East to discuss how in
nearly two decades the region had become a showcase for integration, collaboration and openness in the world.

One leader recalled how in late 2008 participants at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Sharm El Sheikh
formed the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) Education Consortium to promote public-private partnerships (PPPs) to
improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the region’s education systems. The aim was to ensure that the key competitive
advantage of the region – its youthful demographics – was not wasted. The windfall from high
“The Almighty created oil prices enabled the resource-rich countries to pour investment into upgrading education
different societies so we facilities, creating a wide range of new skills development centres to endow young people
with the capabilities to succeed in a global marketplace.
can learn and interact with
each other.”
Because of the shortage of expert trainers, virtual classrooms, other means of remote
learning and job-experience programmes for students swiftly became important ways to
upgrade skills. When combined with state-of-the-art telecom infrastructure, an expanded common market and the greater
demand for skilled personnel, it did not take long for the region to become highly interconnected, particularly as dramatic
increases in Internet penetration spurred the flow of information and the ability of people to communicate with little fear of
censorship.

At the Virtual Annual Meeting, speakers noted that the

combined impact of the new interconnectedness and
PPPs was modest. Yet, as younger leaders emerged,
businesses and governments across the region
became more receptive to faster change, encouraging
pluralism in society and increased media freedom.
They also poured even more resources into
education, skills development and much-needed
infrastructure. A new wave of environmental
consciousness sweeping the world led to more
Middle East companies committing to deepening their
engagement in society and adopting sustainable best
practices.

One panellist pointed

out that in many “Our oil of the future is
countries the reform talent. An eBay of talent
process did not go
smoothly. will aggregate what is not
Reactionary forces aggregated today.”
and conservative
interests attempted
to limit both media and civil society activism in the
name of stability. Thanks to increasingly sophisticated
communications technologies, which were becoming
available to a wider range of consumers, political
debate raged. A major issue on whether states should
“Islamicize” democracy, or democratize Islam had
taken a different track. With an almost unlimited ability
to communicate with one another, the youth
movement, including entrepreneurs, technocrats and
NGO leaders, took concerted action to push forward
a shift to respectful yet open Islamic governance
based on the rule of law. By 2015, thanks to a sea

14 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

 change in attitudes towards governance and education, the Middle East brand was synonymous around the world for
dynamism, exploding opportunities, and a highly skilled and expanding workforce.

Later in the discussion, another panellist noted that a significant challenge emerged when employers realized that, in a highly
mobile world, what was needed to develop human resources and attract talent to the region was not necessarily sufficient to
retain skilled people. Given the massive global demand for skills and increased opportunities for the expanding ranks of
virtual workers, the cost of talent on online human resources auctions skyrocketed. As “Incredible India” had done more than
a decade earlier, Middle East businesses soon understood the importance of the brand.
“A lot of people hear about the
Governments and regulators across the region worked to establish investment climates extremes in the Middle East, but
conducive to entrepreneurship and high-tech ventures through socially responsible
who we don’t hear from is
PPPs. Government coffers filled up with petrodollars and peace dividends, as well as
funds accumulated through the dramatic growth in Islamic financing. The region
ordinary people. The Internet
strengthened its position as the hub of Islamic banking. With liquidity rising in regional empowers ordinary people who
markets, the Gulf States became one of the first stops for entrepreneurs from around the can communicate to the world.”
world looking for alternative sources of funding for the “next big thing”.

Some on the panel conceded that interconnectedness is a double-edged sword. With the end to censorship thanks to
satellite and wireless networks, online content that was reflective, moderate and emphasized proper process became all the
more important. With media-on-demand, the decentralization of information enhanced the danger of personal agendas
taking precedence over constructive debate. With the gradual acceptance of what became
“Creativity needs an open known as “Islam 2.0”, the idea of ijma’a, or consensus building, was updated. More and
more people posted their views on blogs and social interaction websites, and projected their
environment to exist – the
interpretations of the Koran, stirring vigorous debate while underscoring the commonalities
sky is the limit.”
across the region.

Not all the changes wrought by technology enhanced the community spirit across the region. Access to instant
communications changed the way people spoke, altered reading patterns, and fundamentally shifted the role of the media
and the nature of content. While older generations lamented that people had become antisocial and society seemed to lack
a heart and soul, the key indicators for economic and social development told an entirely different story. In 2025, successful
businesses integrate workers from all age groups and backgrounds. Managing diversity in age, gender, ethnicity, background
and religion became a key success factor.

As the session wound down, it was clear that panellists generally agreed that the key to the region’s recent success was the
political and economic leadership, which wholeheartedly embraced change at a point when there was no stopping it.
Leaders were well aware that knowledge is king and those who possessed talent and information were bound to be resilient
in the face of multiple challenges. In the rapidly moving world of the last two decades, decision-makers understood that the
skills students learned at school would be obsolete even before they got their degree. As a result, critical thinking, decision-
making, initiative, ethics, social responsibility and learning skills have become the bedrock of the new curricula. It is a point of
pride for the region that students are now well equipped to develop on their own the skills required to succeed in the labour
market.

In his concluding remarks, Sayed, the newly elected President of Egypt, a former student activist and company CEO, stated:
“The key success factor for the Middle East was the leadership that embraced change and education which is critical to
preparing our younger generations for this Hyperlinked World. We empowered them and they thought for themselves. They
spoke up and finally we all listened and responded. We had to.”

Related sessions (session summaries are available on the Forum website):

• Managing Mobile Talent
• The Power of Popular Collaboration
• The DNA of a Future Middle East Business
• Preparing Infrastructure for Connectivity 15 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
 The Sustainable World
Key Outcomes
• Encourage a sense of community and build a new social contract on environmental issues
• Adopt a multistakeholder approach and establish public-private partnerships
• Aim R&D initiatives at finding sustainable solutions to address water scarcity and energy
security
• Use incentives and fiscal policies (taxes) to encourage active engagement of the private sector
• Set environmental benchmarks for players to gain access to markets
Key Question
• How do you integrate sustainability into business models and still achieve, and even enhance,
profitability?

It is May 2025. The World Economic Forum has convened its annual meeting in the Middle East for the first time in Masdar,
the zero-carbon, zero-waste, car-free city that Abu Dhabi launched in 2006. Since the World Economic Forum on the Middle
East in Sharm El Sheikh in 2012, the event has taken place only in green venues across the region as an acknowledgement
of the Kyoto II Protocol, which came into effect that year. Egypt had a head start. Following
“The time has come to the 2008 meeting, the Egyptian government announced that Red Sea resort on the edge of
stop debating the climate the Sinai Desert would be the country’s first green tourist destination.

change question and start

The 2008 World Economic Forum on the Middle East proved to be a tipping point in the
taking action.” region’s debate over how to balance profitability and sustainability amid discussions on the
impact of climate change, the urgent need to change mindsets, and pricing of water and
carbon. “Hydro-politics” became even more fierce and continued to prove a major obstacle to sustainable water
management and cooperation among countries in the Middle East. The cost of poor-quality water in developing regions was
significant. But thanks to the “More Crops with Fewer Drops” campaign, which improved water efficiency and agricultural
productivity through the adoption and sharing of new technology, pockets of enhanced use of water emerged and gradually
expanded across the Middle East and North Africa. The technology allowed for better measurement of water resources
which in turn contributed to appropriate water pricing. This initiative spurred governments to include water as a part of
economic policy; review fiscal policies, subsidies and tariffs which diverted valuable resources; and push for integrated water
resource management.

In 2015, the Forum’s meeting held in Jerusalem, showcased the successful cooperative water management among Jordan,
Israel and Palestine along the Dead Sea, and other fruits of the successful conclusion of the Arab-Israeli Peace Accord a few
years back. Both government and corporate leaders were inspired to protect their new income-generating assets and
resources, now all too aware of the cost and negative impact of inaction on society,
the economy and the environment. “Peace and security are
prerequisites to introducing
Around this time, a number of countries began to focus on carefully developing
integrated water resources
adventure and cultural tourism. While they were criticized for starting slowly, some
governments granted licences only to those companies which met legislated management. We need also to
ecological and sustainability standards that reflected Kyoto II requirements. The change the real cost of services
region’s more enlightened tourism officials, operators and agents worried about the instead of water pricing. We need
impact of the increasing number of visitors on historic sites and nature preserves but to charge the cost of providing
were also concerned about missing out on the growing trend towards green tourism. water.”
This heightened the sense of urgency among policy-makers and put pressure on
them to select the right solutions.

16 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

Inspired by the success of the pioneering green destinations, more and more cities and resort towns across the Middle East
and North Africa followed suit. These new players began to embrace sustainability and implemented rules and regulations
either to encourage or force residents and businesses to get on the bandwagon lest they miss their opportunity or lose
market share. There was little doubt that the global clientele was becoming better informed and choosing to buy green.

As in many developing regions, the rise of mega-cities and the rapid rate of urbanization in the Middle East strained the
capacity of existing infrastructure and made achieving sustainability even tougher. The public had little choice but to accept
the real cost of water, carbon emissions, and food and energy security. Producers, suppliers and sellers were beginning to
embed in the entire value chain the market-driven prices of natural resources and the consequences of environmental
degradation. Major developers negotiated with governments and financial institutions to make adjustments in lending and
financing arrangements for the estimated 10% increase in cost for green development. Meeting these challenges created
new opportunities for local investment, many of them unforeseen. Savvy entrepreneurs seized the day.

“I knew that when I had the money to start a company, it would have to be a green enterprise,” said Soraya, a 33-year-old
Egyptian entrepreneur, during a session at the 2025 Masdar meeting. “I believed then that I could make big profits and still
do the right thing.” She recalled how as a teenager in Cairo she heard about the sustainability discussions at the 2008 World
Economic Forum on the Middle East from a friend who had been among the Arab youths invited to participate.

Soraya flew to Masdar from the Middle East’s first wholly sustainable airport in Muscut on one of the three solar-powered
planes in the fleet of eco-ME Airways, which she owns. In her session, she told participants how she turned failure into good
fortune after her first employer went bust. The bankruptcy resulted from the company misreading the social movement and
policies to embrace sustainability and launching a non-green version of a new resort despite opposition.

Suddenly unemployed, Soraya met an investor who shared her dream of creating a green venture. She presented her with
the concept of eco-ME, an environmentally responsible airline that would link green destinations with the major ecotourist
markets in the world. Five years ago, the airline started flying between Munich and Sharm El Sheikh, connecting Egypt’s
premier green resort with one of Europe’s most environmentally conscious countries. Later, the carrier began serving other
green destinations in the Middle East and Africa.

At the Masdar meeting, Soraya told a new generation of Arabs that the “You have to reduce the risk of
Sustainable World is reality. “Today, sustainability has to be part of everything we conflict in order for business flows
do,” she concluded. “The main ingredients for sustainability are the sense of to take place.”
urgency, proactive governance, accessible technology, educated consumers and,
certainly for the Middle East, the maintenance of peace and stability to allow for
regional collaboration. It will take time before we know we have reversed the problem of global warming and climate change.
And, with fossil fuel supplies running out, we have to continue developing alternative sources of energy and diversifying our
economies. Now that we have had relative peace for more than a decade, we are enjoying unprecedented growth in tourism.
Thanks to the new International Carbon Fund, we know the cost of carbon; we know the price of indifference. So now is the
time to go beyond green and I guarantee that you will tap a huge market that for so long nobody thought was there.”

Related sessions (session summaries are available on the Forum website):

• Destination Middle East – Sustainable Tourism for 2025
• Fuelling the Future
• How Much Water Do You Eat?
• Managing Urbanization in the Middle East

17 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

 The Multipolar World
Key Outcomes
• Diversify and better manage the region’s sovereign wealth funds
• Balance alliances and do not focus exclusively on developing relationships with Asia
• Do not let security institutions dominate policy-making in the Middle East and minimize
security paranoia; aim instead to deepen regional economic integration
• Even as the region’s economies grow, preserve the cultural identity of the Middle East
• Understand the implications of civil society or non-state actors gaining strength and voice
Key Question
• What does multipolarity mean in terms of global power relationships? Is what is developing
not in fact a non-polar world?

It is 25 April 2025. China’s best known entrepreneur is undoubtedly Rui Anzhou, the 44-year-old founder of Tianjin-based DigiT,
makers of PalmTac, the hottest telecom product in the world – a tiny featherweight IT marvel that sits in the palm. The tiny device
is a mobile phone, laptop, PDA, USB drive and MP3 player rolled into one. On the back of brisk global sales, DigiT is one of the
fastest-growing companies in China and the world. Since the firm was listed on the Shanghai-Hong Kong Global Exchange in
2020, its stock price has doubled every year.

While investors have been attracted to Rui’s company for its killer product, what they really like is his business model. In 2008,
when Rui was a business undergraduate at Shanghai, a new business model discussed at a session in the World Economic
Forum on the Middle East inspired him. CHIMEA (for China, India, the Middle East
“An increasingly multipolar world and Africa) is a concept that combines China’s manufacturing prowess, India’s
offers clear advantages for competitive technological expertise, the strategically well positioned Middle East’s wealth and
companies from our region looking for energy supplies, and Africa’s natural resources.
growth opportunities beyond their
Only 20 years ago, Silicon Valley was the undisputed epicentre of innovation.
national borders. We recognize the Today, there are many such specialist centres driving new ideas and technologies,
huge potential for our local businesses while Washington DC and Brussels have given away to geopolitical dominance to
and as a government are actively multiple centres of gravity around the globe. CHIMEA could not have happened
looking ‘eastwards’.” without this shift in the technological, geopolitical and economic landscape.

Interestingly, China did not emerge as the hegemonic power or military threat that some experts at the turn of the millennium
feared. Predictions of the country’s superpower status were premature. The Asian giant has had to orchestrate enormous efforts
to enhance its ability to innovate, increase energy efficiency, expand capabilities in the logistics sector, and leverage information
technology and financial services to push up productivity. To be sure, China’s emergence resulted in a major reordering of
geopolitical power alignments. Yet, China’s immigration and emigration levels had consistently risen for years, providing the
Chinese with sufficient exposure to world-class standards and opportunities for middle management talent to learn global best
practices. The country still has not risen to the top of the global economic league table, ranked by size or competitiveness,
although that day may be closer.

By 2015, the 10 ASEAN nations had coalesced into a single liberalized market with a steady GDP growth rate in the range of 5%
to 7% per year. Intra-ASEAN trade ballooned. With a wealth of opportunities opening up for the new ASEAN community,
businesses had to become more flexible and dynamic to cope with fast-shifting patterns in demand. The region took advantage
of the desire among many investors and entrepreneurs not to put all their baskets in the China market. Some countries focused
on developing global niches in which they could excel. Malaysia, for example, solidified its position as the top Islamic financial
centre outside the Middle East, especially for issuing sharia-compliant sovereign and corporate bonds. It achieved this by
constantly raising transparency, disclosure and governance standards.

18 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

 By the time entrepreneur Rui had started to turn his business concept into reality in 2015, a second wave of emerging countries
surfaced, leveraging the strengths of each region to focus on high-growth markets, while limiting exposure or even avoiding the low-
growth developed economies. With the rise of new centres of gravities, there was sharp growth in global trade, particularly between
developing regions. The main challenge was to ensure that trade was mutually beneficial. The competition among incumbent and
emerging poles posed risks to multilateral institutions, threatening to undermine free trade deals and shake the international
community’s commitment to trade liberalization. The Middle East and Africa fought over human resources. Multiplying centres of
economic and geopolitical power in developing regions finely balanced each other, while at the same time drawing influence away
from Western incumbents. This growth increased the global demand for energy, further fuelling wealth accumulation in the Middle
East and increasing the region’s role as a major force in global investment. Despite efforts to develop alternative energies, oil and
gas remained the most important energy mix. There was no significant spike in the demand for renewable and alternative energies.
Inevitably, scrutiny of the Middle East’s sovereign wealth funds and pressure on them to behave responsibly continued to build up
wherever they invested.

To thrive in this emerging Multipolar World, it was not sufficient for the Middle East to rely on a “All of us will not evolve in a
narrow base of energy and finance. The Middle East and the rest of Asia were natural partners. linear fashion. The patterns of
The Middle East had the energy resources to fuel Asia’s high growth, while Asia – China in competitive advantage will
particular – was an attractive market for investors from the Middle East. Investors from the
shift over time so business
Middle East proved to be active players in the energy sector as well as in infrastructure and
leisure. Meanwhile, Asian enterprises looked to the Middle East as a hub of operations in the and governments will need to
global production chain. Adding to the appeal of the complementary relationship was the fact adapt.”
that neither side wanted to impose values or interfere in the interests of the other.

With the CHIMEA model at the back of his mind, Rui capitalized on the changing geopolitical and economic landscape. He brought
together a team of Indian and Chinese engineers that produced a working prototype. He took that and his business proposal to a
business school classmate in Dubai who put him in touch with potential investors in the Gulf including the chief investment officer of
the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund. Within weeks, he had received the funding needed to launch the PalmTac from a consortium
of investors from China, Hong Kong and the Middle East.

DigiT had to decide where to source its raw materials and components for the new product and where to manufacture it. Rui looked
to Africa to provide some of the metals required in tiny amounts in each unit, while he went to Malaysia and the Philippines for some
of the microscopic components. Assembly would be in DigiT’s newest factory in China, about an hour outside Chengdu. By early
2018, the company was ready to start production, going to the market that summer.

“Business needs to
collaborate and compete at
the same time to survive in
a complex and ever-
changing environment.”
Rui rolled out his new product in China first, followed by the rest of Asia and the Middle East. At
the end of 2018, the PalmTac was the best-selling electronic product across Asia. By 2019, Rui
had launched in Africa, with a big event in Johannesburg. DigiT distributors in North America and
Europe urged him to bring the PalmTac to their markets, but Rui told them that his manufacturing
facilities in China would have difficulty keeping up with demand once Africans could buy the
PalmTac. He was right.

In early 2025, Rui went to Abu Dhabi to meet shareholders. Asked to address a group of young entrepreneurs from across the
Middle East, Rui had this advice: “The key to success is to understand how the world is changing and to take advantage of those
changes. There are still geopolitical risks. As an adept entrepreneur in this Multipolar World, one needs to develop supply chains that
leverage the strength of each sourcing country. You need to be flexible to stay competitive and to meet demand in a crisis. Finally,
keep rethinking the role the Middle East can play in the global market. Stay diversified – and never be complacent. The world keeps
changing and you have to change with it.”

Related sessions (session summaries are available on the Forum website):

• Courting the Middle East
• Risky Business? Setting a Course for the East

19 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

The WorkSpace
Four WorkSpace sessions were held at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East. The sessions highlighted topics important to
the region − social entrepreneurship and business development, peace negotiations, sustainable green development, and the future of
the Middle East based on scenarios predicting the future in 2025. Participants had the opportunity to interact closely with regional and
international leaders from the public and private sector.
Unblocking the Supply Chain for Green
Development
This WorkSpace identified the key obstructions to
creating greener supply chains for urban development. In
a series of small breakout groups, participants built their
own supply chains focusing on the specific needs of, and
constraints and enablers in, the Middle East. Supply
chains for a green building, desalination plant, solar park,
urban waste recycling facility and public transport facility
were mapped, compared and analysed to identify the
main bottlenecks.
Key Outcomes
• Participants determined whether they can raise
awareness of the interconnectivity and complexity in
the supply chain. They can achieve true insights of
where the bottlenecks are and find ways to create a
greener supply chain.
• Pricing signals must be injected into the supply chain
for urban development so as to expose the true costs
and allow consumers to make fully informed choices.
• The current infrastructure is inadequate to encourage
adoption of green technologies such as solar
generated power, wind power and desalination.
This session provided some remarkable insights
into the green supply chain interconnections,
complexities and bottlenecks. Those insights will be
extremely valuable to the Forum’s ongoing
sustainable development workstreams and
initiatives.
– Ralph R. Peterson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer,
CH2M Hill Companies, USA
20 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
The Best New Business Venture for the
Middle East
Participants in this WorkSpace explored different socially
entrepreneurial business models to understand how they
address societal needs. Featured social entrepreneurs
showcased their businesses that addressed complex and
diverse topics such as fair trade, employment for
disabled persons, sustainable development, and
providing education and jobs training.
Small groups discussed nuances of the various business
models and then worked together to build their own
venture ideas. They created business models to tackle
such issues as sustainable food production, the bottom
of the pyramid, renewable resources, access to water,
investing in health, bridging the skills gap and
underutilized human resources.
Key Outcomes
• One group suggested helping the environment and
bridging the skills gap through the establishment of a
green hotel, which would offer organic food, chemical-
free laundering, solar-generated energy, water recycling
and eco-friendly building materials. It would create jobs
and build awareness in the community through
supporting and growing greener businesses and
training workers.
• One group addressed sustainable food production by
creating an agricultural franchise – SAND2FOOD. This
company woud be a “Pizza Hut” for farmers, providing
them with a toolkit advising them on sustainable land
use, seeds, water conservation, packaging,
transportation and labour standards.
The green revolution passed by the Middle East.
There have been huge advances in agricultural
production that have not trickled down.
– Mariam Al Foudery, Vice-President, Corporate Social
Responsibility, Agility, Kuwait.
Building Peace, Breaking Taboos
Inspired by personal insights from Tony Blair, Middle East
Quartet Envoy, United Nations, this WorkSpace
addressed an issue essential to regional peace and
stability: the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations and the
role of taboos in that process. Blair shared his
experiences from the Northern Ireland conflict and drew
parallels to the current negotiations. Facilitated by Daniel
Shapiro, participants divided into groups to tackle the
taboo topics that could impede progress - Jerusalem’s
status, the right of refugee return, holy sites, and the
emotions surrounding the use of the words “Israel” and
“Palestine”. The groups also projected forward to 2025
assuming peace had been achieved and described how
they got there.
Key Outcomes
• Need to engage and involve those who were not at the
table to create ownership of a negotiated solution on
both sides. How can we engage the people at the
fringe of the process?
• Defining the terms is a difficult task. What do we mean
by refugees? Who has left their “homes”, when? This
conflict has a long history and we must recognize each
side’s valid desire for recognition of their positions.
Scenarios Series Conclusion: What Can We
Learn from the Future?
This WorkSpace was the culmination of the Scenario
Series. Participants looked at the various predicted future
worlds of 2025 – Hyperlinked, Sustainable and Multipolar
– and thought about the strategic options, challenges
and choices that they must address today to achieve a
positive future. Moderated by Nik Gowing, Main
Presenter, BBC World News, United Kingdom,
participants pinpointed the ups and downs to the future
scenarios. They drew comparisons across the various
futures to see if similar challenges and opportunities
existed and to identify how to best capitalize on restricted
resources.
Key Outcomes
• Sustainability must be brought to the top of the agenda
in the Middle East. It is simply not the agenda of most
regional businesses. Sustainability is viewed as an
externalized cost rather than part of doing business.
We must shift to taking a longer view on what growth
means. The view now is too short term. Growth must
have sustainable focus.
• Education will be key in a hyperlinked society not only
to raise awareness but to create a sense of cultural
and local identity.
• One challenge in the Middle East is that security
institutions dominate policy-making. We should aim to
minimize security paranoia between countries by
building economic alliances to overcome security fears.
21 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
Acknowledgements

The World Economic Forum recognizes the support of the following companies as Partners of the World
Economic Forum on the Middle East:

Strategic Partners Regional Partners

AMD Abraaj Capital

Bahrain Economic Development Board Agility
Bain & Company Alghanim Industries
Barclays ARTOC Group of Investment & Development
Booz Allen Hamilton EFG-Hermes Holding
BP Emaar
CA Gulf Air
Cisco Systems Hikma Pharmaceuticals
Citi Investcorp
Clifford Chance National Bank of Kuwait
The Coca-Cola Company Telecom Egypt
Deloitte
Dubai Holding
Dubai World Meeting Supporters
DuPont
Emirates Group Arab African International Bank
Ernst & Young CH2M HILL
Heidrick & Struggles Citadel Capital
HP Commercial International Bank (CIB)
Infosys Technologies TIBCO
Intel Corporation
Kudelski Group
Lehman Brothers Official Carrier
McKinsey & Company
Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC) EgyptAir
METRO Group
NBC Universal
The Olayan Group
Renault-Nissan
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC)
SK Group
Thomson Reuters
Travelport
UBS
Xenel Group

22 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

23 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East
Contributors

Børge Brende is Managing Director, Regional Agenda Teams, of the World Economic Forum.
Sherif El Diwany is Director, Head of Middle East, at the Forum. The World Economic Forum on
the Middle East was under his direct responsibility, with Daniel Davies, Associate Director,
Middle East, and Victor Willi, Manager, Middle East, responsible for Programme Development;
Denise Burnet, Director, Head of Events, and Meeting Coordinator; Tareq Bouchuiguir and Rim
Lemsyeh, Community Relations Managers, Middle East.

The report writers, Wayne Arnold, William Hinchberger and Alejandro Reyes, and Chiemi
Hayashi, Project Manager, Scenarios Series and Lena Hagelstein worked with Samantha Tonkin,
Senior Media Manager, to produce the report.

The World Economic Forum would like to express its appreciation to the summary writers for
their work at the meeting. Session summaries are available on the World Economic Forum
website (www.weforum.org).

Associate Director, Editing: Nancy Tranchet

Design and Layout: Kamal Kimaoui, Associate Director, Production and Design

Photographs: Shawn Baldwin, Pedro Costa Gomes, Norbert Schiller and Dana Smilie

24 | World Economic Forum on the Middle East

This publication is also available electronically on the World Economic Forum website at the following address:

World Economic Forum on the Middle East report:

http://www.weforum.org/summitreports/middleeast2008 (HTML)

The electronic version of this report allows access to a richer level of content from the meeting, including
photographs, session summaries and videos of selected sessions.

The report is also available as a PDF:

http://www.weforum.org/summitreports/middleeast2008.pdf (PDF)

Other specific information on the World Economic Forum on the Middle East, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt 18-20
May can be found at the following links:

Meeting News www.weforum.org/middleeast2008

Session Summaries www.weforum.org/middleeast2008/summaries
Photographs www.pbase.com/forumweb/middleeast2008
Programme www.weforum.org/middleeast2008/programme
Interviews www.weforum.org/middleeast2008/regionalupdate
Partners www.weforum.org/middleeast2008/partners
Videos www.weforum.org/middleeast2008/webcasts
The World Economic Forum is an independent
international organization committed to improving
the state of the world by engaging leaders in
partnerships to shape global, regional and
industry agendas.

Incorporated as a foundation in 1971, and based

in Geneva, Switzerland, the World Economic
Forum is impartial and not-for-profit; it is tied to
no political, partisan or national interests.
(www.weforum.org)