Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
An Overview
1.1 clouded inflation The Indian ~conoI1lY, on the eve of the TWelfth and a very good pelfonn~lnce in growth in the Plan, is characterised yeJr, continuine by strong Jbout of maCro fundamentals, over the l;;leventh Plan period, though current concern The objective Inevitably,
by some slowdown
the Eleventh Plan was faster and inclusive growth Plan period have resulted
progres~ towards
and also new challenges that need to be faced. Some of the c1hallenges are themseli/es the consequence of the economy's transition to c: higher and more inclusive growth path, H1C structural changes th(1t come with it. and
the expectations it generates. There are external challenges <1150 arising frorn the fact that the global economic environment is much less favourable than it was Clt the start of the
1
Eleventh Plan. These challenges call for renewed efforts on multiple fronts learn"hlg from the ~xperienc~ gained, al~d keeping in mind global d~vE!lopmellts. 1.2. more have In prepc'lring the Approach
Paper,
the
Planning
Commission
has consulted
much
r~cognising
the fact that citizens are now much better across the country
small enterprises institutions This process and of including those representing
inform~d ;:lnd also keen to engage. Over 950 civil society organisatiolls
rer;iollal
cOllsultations.
the Twelfth
will be strengthened
few months.
1.3
- 2011/12)
necessary for t'oNO reasons: first, to generate the income and employment gencrc'lte the resources needed for financing povel1y ;:.:ld enabling inclusiveness, 1.'1 projected The economy f1as pp-rformed well on the growth Y[~Jrs. Growth at around
9
aimed at reducing
f1rst four
per cent
the stron~
rebound
Sow an
8.5 per cent growth in 20~0-11. In5tead, the economy has slowed down comptlred with the previous year - a phenomenon has a rebound from depressed common to <'Ill111ljor economies < reflecting the ft:lct that 2010 levels in 2009. Growth in 2011-12 is likely to rdnge between
8.0 and 8.3 per cent. The economy will average GDP growth of around 8.2 per cent in the Eleventh Plan period whicH is low~r than the 9.0 per cent originally
the 1.8 percent achieved in the lenth cdpita GDP in this period. 1t. has also led to a substantial
targeted,
increase in government
the programmes
aimed
'ilt
inclusivenl:!ss. A healthy
in aggregate
investment rates, particularly in the private sector, testifies to the strength dS it enters the Twelfth Plan period.
1.5 The acceleration in growth in the Eleventh Plan period compared
but It is nevertheless
crisis depressed
a good performance,
severe global
growth in two of these five years, and also that India had the in the year 2009. The slowdown in 201112 is a matter
monsoon
in three decades
1.5
inclusiveness
is a
multi-dimensional
of poverty, of education,
broad"based
to school,
including skill development. It should also be reflected better opportunities electricity, roads, sanitation and housing. Particular attention
in all these dimensions
employment and livelihoods and in improvement in provision of basic amenities like water,
needs to be paid to the needs and other excluded and of programmes, but on multiple interventions, of the SC!Sr and OBC popullation, groups. To achieve inclusiveness success depends institutional outcomes and attitudinal women and children asalso minorities requires new policies and government time.
A comprehensive
assessment
on all these frollts during the Eleventh Plan is not possible at this point, because
However, available
evidence
suggests that
there have been gains on many of these fronts, even though there are shortfalls for which
awareness
about
inclusiveness
a greater
desire
to access
information
<'Iccountability
from the public delJvery systems. This augurs well for tile future.
1.3 relevilnt
One important
feCltLlre
of the growth
experienced
Plan, which
is
for inclusiveness,
shared thiln ever before ,Kross the States. While most States hcve shown sustflined high r<:\te) uf growt!l, several of th~ economically weaker States hiwe demonstrated an
impr-ovement
Chhattisgarh,
to available
in t~eir growth riltes. Amongst them are Gih<lr, Orissa, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and to some extent Uttar Pradesh,
R<Jjasthan,
1
According
datd, no Stat~ has averaged GSDP growth of less than 6 per cent during the
1.9 While the econohlically~weaker st;:;tes are catching up in growth rates, there is growing concern a90ut the backwardness of indiVidual districts, several of which are located in States that are otherwise doing well. Many of these distrIcts are also affected by Left-wing Extremism. The Backward Regions Grant Fund and various other regional initiatives have
been specially designed to address this problem.
1.10 Reducing poverty is n key element in our inclusive growth strategy and there is some progress in that regard. According to previous offiCial poverty estimates, the percentage of
the population Iivin~ below the poverty line had declined by 8.5 percentage points between 1993/4 and 2004/5. Since the appropriateness of the poverty line was questioned in some
quarters, the Government appointed
i3n
Expert Committee
of the of the
The Tendulkar
Committee recommended
Committee
estimate of rural povelty and therefore also of total poverty, but if the new method is applied to the earlier years} as it should be, it shows thC1t the percentage of the population
in poverty declined from 45 per cent in 1993(94 to 37 per cent in 2004/05. was declining at roughly 0.8 percentage Thus, poverty points per year in the year before the Eleventh Plan.
1.11 ThG Eleventh Plan had set a more ambitious target of dcllieving a decline of 2 percentage points p6:r year. Preliminary estimates lIsing the latest NSS survey for 2009/10 suggest that the percentage of the populeltion in poverty declined, at a slightly more rapid
rate thfm before,
by i;lpproxil1lately 1 percentage point per annum, during the five-year period 2004/05 to 2009/10, Since 2009/10 was a drought year, and poverty in tnat year could have increased tempordrily, the underlying rate of decline is probably more tl13n one
percentaGe point per year. It is also pO$~jble thJt the p<Jce of poverty reduction has
1The improvc;l1el1t ill this fOllllerly low growth and low income Stil(eS i~ eviden( in many ,~<lSc;S llwr lhe X'i1 Plan period, and in some other~, more ~o over the XTth p.;]]) period. ~hOlild be cn~ph;JSiL.ed that tho,e Sta:es which picken t:p oye[ the Xth Plan period, have cQnrillucd l() perform b~ller in the Xllh Plan, .l1.),'v(:vl'r, '~I1lf: Jormerlv higher incOllW !\Jld high gwwlh Sti'.te~ ;.t'lVC sl:own :;lighlly weaker f.:row~h over the XHh Plan perJOG, most p:;)mi~cnt ()f which are K;;malaka ard Tatoil Nadu.
rt
accelerated
Plan
programmes
aimed at increasing
inclusiveness
summllry assessment
Millennium
though
it may
1.015,
1.12
happened
to the real farm wages in the rural areas. This is because the largest number It is comforting
workers, is in rural areas and the majority of them still rely on farm
to see that during the period 2007 to 2010 by 16 percent at an all India respectively,
was the f stest in Andhra Pradesh (42%) and Orissa (33%). Even in states
like Bihar and Uttar Pradesli, over the three year period,
1,13
The Eleventh
and providing basic services, with the objective of increasing Some of these programmes were
poverty.
1.14
Most
of
with
these
pr6grammes
State
are
Centrally
share.
Sponsored
The total
Schemes,
expenditure
which
are
implemented Government
expect,
the
effectiveness
varies from
of misuse
reported
present
are a legitimate
imply that
attention:
the overall
impact
of the programme
MGNREGA,
in 2006-07
and extended
miS1l5e
demand-driven
architecture,
cornpletely
different
programmes,
employment
successfully ;;lgriculturcd
to 5.45 [rore
raised wages,
households economic
outcomes
migrCltion. This is not to deny that with better project dc~i~~nimplementation be greatly reduced; dl~d the Zl:;sets so cre<3ted could make d much 'ncrease in land produc.tivit)', l.Jf; Refor:lIS in implementation of plan schemes ~re a priority
leakages could to
lar'ger contribution
dnd should
receiv,~
Plan,
There is need for rnarc f1~xibility in the design of the across the States, SpeciQI provisions should be alJd special efforts to promote of the brolld nature of
considered
for encour1ging
convergence at the to prevent duplication and to'create synergies tnat improve the assessment
AI detailed
--~-: SI.
i
.,
Programmes
.!-hJ~t.:. Rs.
,-,
--CfOl'e
I
MGNRBG A Indira Awa._~ Yojana (I~:Y) Natinn<ll So cial Assist<lnce ProgTlim:ne
(NSAP) Pradhan M (PMGSY)
Mini.~tiyl
Department Rural Dcvelopme~:T~
No, I
J
2fJ07-08 --Actual
1-~'Olt-12
HE
.- -
2
3
..
Ruml Development
--
.'10,000 10,000
6,158
20,000
..... .
4 5 6 7
0,500
l-ieflllh & F<-tmily Wcifiue 10,509
__ .-
65,COL
NRHM
leDS Mid Day M
-
09,214
.--"""]
Women &. Child De.ve!QjJment ... _ ... _._.School Education & Literacy
School Educ(1tjon &. Literacy 1 Jrhflt.\ DevdoplIlvnl
..
5,19J
,
....
....
38,980
I
J
I
5,&3?
,-- -------
? 8,602 I
"!
R
!)
Sarva Siksh JNl\URM Accelerated i~'igation Bdndit . Prognnuue (AIBP) ann Other wmer resources pr ogmmme
-"
11,477
_ .. _.
5,:'l()~
13,700
I
I
:.
JO
5,':46
12,650
-" ..
3.913 ,
....
-6,000 25,913
Il
Yujllna(RG
I
1
r
12 I I
Ra;iivG<lmlh i Drinking W;,ter Mi<,$ioIl (Rural Drinl ,jng water) - NRD'""T' and rO~ill Sanila lion Camp3ign (TSC)
,
7,320
11,000
- <6,
722
r
U
1,200
_0
I
-
.... 7,S 11
---_ ...
IM,539
] 8,550
L_"RANDTOTAL
8.l.217
';,_,,97.1
Notl!.'
SGSY is
1'I000Y
1.17
The country's
total
population,
as rC'cordeej in Censu~ 2011, at 1.21 billion, is slightly has decelerated from 1.97 per cent per
164 per cent per annum between 2001 and 2011. It has
those of the populolls in the Tot;:)) Fertility Gangetic Rate plains. The is decline
(TFR) which
to have fallen to 2.6 and is expected to decline to 2.3 in the first half of the decade. The Southern I States
level.
have
reached,
the
developing
cent over the next twent~ years, while it will decline by 4 per cent in industri.alised provided two conditions are fulfilled. development economy opportunities not only grows rapidly,
and by nearly 5 per cent lin China. This ~Jdemographic dividend" can add to growth potenti<;ll,
First, much higher I~vels of health, ~ducation and skill must be a1chieved. Second, an environment to meet the needs and aspirations of the youth.
must
be created
in which
the
employment/livelihood
1.19
and add
commensurate with the expectations of a growing labour force. As noted above, India's young age structure offers a potential demographic dividend for
but this pot~ntiar will be realised only if the extent and quality of education in new entrants things brought out to the workforce in education, is greatly enhanced. and skill most is of development remarkable One of the
(2009/10)
increased dramatically
who continued
1.20
and also because of lower labour force participation over the same period, 18 million terms, job opportunities unemployment basis. Thus, in absolute
on current
6.3 million;
1. In [hc age group of 5- 14 yeilrs, 89.3 per t:cnt of chilurcn wefe in school in 2009-10 .up from. 8).4 per c-:nl in 2004-05. Further rJlis increase wa$ higher for girls, risLng from 79.6 per cent in 2004.05 to 87.7 per cent in 21)09-10. Tn \he 15 19 years age gruup, .')9.5 per cent of young people were in the educatiOllal system in 2009-10
as compared to 46.2 per \~elll in 200-1-05. Once again, the incrc1:I5eW<lS more for girls, ITom 40.3 to 54.6 per cent. In the next hi.gher age group of 21}-24 ye<lrs, 22.5 /1er c.;lJt or boys <lnd 12.8 per cent of girls were still in the educational systelll in 2009-10 again$t only 149 anri 7.6 pCI' cent resp0Ctively in 200405.
unemployment
in
in 2004-05,
C;]fl1e
f10t
expected
can aSSUrile that much larger numbers of educated youth will be joining the labour force in j',ucasing numbers during the Xllth Plan and in tl~(' yetlrs beyond. The c!eai- irnplicdCon of
p<lCC Df
job/livelihood
boost to
creation
the manufactured sector of the economy, such that it grow5 at a rate that is faster- than most other parts of the economy. However, this may not be enough, in part because not all categories of manufacturing are labour intemive.
a significant Although GDP from manufacturing increased at 9.5% per annum in the organised in rnanufacturing between 2004-05 and 2009~1O along with some increase in emp!o'{ment this survey suggests that overall employment period. The implied shake-out source of jobs/livelihoods :t.22 The 66
th
manufacturing
sector,
so that
m;:Jinly in construction. While such jobs are often more attr<3ctive for rural labour than casual work in ZlgriclJlture,
created between
;;l
2004-05
and 2009-10
was in casual
employment,
there
is
potential
for an <;lccelerated
pace of creation
of more
durable
opportunities.
could come from faster expr,lIlsion. In personnel steady modernisation, and also the opportunities,
supply chains and the increased demand for t(lchnical and other elements
aspects of farming
of equipment
rural infrastructure.
of quality jobs/livelihood
in
(agriculture
& allied actiVIties), though better than in the Tenth Plan, remains short of the 4-
The farm sector has grown at an average rate of around 3.2 per cent
Plan and assuming conditions remain favDurable
d
in
farm sector
growth
may be
of whom
below target grOlt/th in this sector is one of ttl(~ reasons for increase in food prices over the last: two ye<lrs. Global development tllat one pcrcentdge point growth e_~pccially fro1l1 the [}I{IC countries, is at least two to three ernanating from non-agriculture revf:'(:jls sector tirn~~,; more effective
1.24 which
is a State subject, the Centre will have to work hand in h;.Uld with in policies and strategies. than 21 of agri-GDP. Overall investment Higher in agriculture, in
dipped to less than 10 per cent of agri-GDP in 2002~03 has been 5ub~tantia"Y
tod<3Y stands at more both by the public levels of inve5tments results for the and private
sector
if th~
are undertaken
to strc~ltnlin~
farmers, but
Seeds
on the supply
framework
operate.
are priority
need to remove most of the controls that have denied a unified and seamless all India market for most of agri-products. Finding the most
ways of ushering in these changes must be a key priority Clrea in the Twelfth Plan,
1.25
The
Eleventh
Plan had
drawn
attention
to the
fact
that
India's
health
outcome
indicators continue to be weaker than they should be, at our level of development. The Plan had therefore expressed the necessity of allocating additional resourcp.s to health and laid
down monitorable
(MMR), parameters,
improvement. percentage (2007-2009). in 2009, while
institutionalised.
available! of deliveries
extent three
etc,
of the
Eleventh
Plan, show
Rate (IMR) has fallen from 57 in 2006 to 50 in 2009. The Rate (MMR) has come down by 32 points to 212 rate of decline is low~r than our
in institutions has increased from 54 per cent in 2006 to 73 per cent Mortality improvements but their
targets. We must acceler~te the pace of progress in this area in the Twelfth Plan. 1.26 The Eleventh Plan had noted that the total public expenditure on health in India by Centre and the States was I~ss than 1 per cent of GDP and it needed to be increased to 2 or
3
is estimated
to have increased
to
around 1.4 per cent in 2011/12 (BE). If expenditure on drinking water & sanitation in rural
areas} which are critical for better the Twelfth Plan to achieve the is included, should the percentage increase would be health
as percenta~e
in the public Jrovision of health services. There hdS been inadequate attention our education in this area. There are also problems
of personnel
1.28
educdtional
f<lcilitie$ and
improving
of rC'lising qUdlity
in the extension
of prill1ary education,
both in regard
of dropout
became operational
are now in school. The ASER 2.010 report shows that for froln 6.6 per cent in 2005 to 3.5 per cent in 2010. The
the age group 6-14 years in all of rural India, the percentage in school
proportion
children
of girls in the <lge group 11-14 years who were out of school hasaJso
this needs to be reduced,
declined
of it is not
from 11.2 per cent In 1005 to 5.9 pN cent in 2010. However, the absolute numbers who are out of school remains large. While
access is now more or less universvlised. We llOW confront the greater challenge of improving the quality of school education. This means extensive and
stClte thi;lt
unreasonable
to
improved
te ach er tra inlng, upgrad in g curricul um and enforci ng of accou nta b il ity in tedcher's As increasing number of children finish elementary schOOl, there will be need to of
attendance.
strategy
and of
excellence
higher
Government
of higher I~arning in the Eleventh into the Twelfth with Plan period to as many teachers as 50 and an and Colleges is also critical. to contract
Plan. This
rec:ch its full potential. These universities percent adverse of faculty impact
all
by State
Governmel1ts
resort
positions
forcing frequent
The task of achieving excellence in higher education demands academic: reforms to ard choice for the students, and strengthening of rese<lrch activjty linkages between teaching and research. in Universities by establishing mutu<3lly-reinfordng ways such <3S technology-enabled Faculty shortages need to be tackled through innovative
provide greater flexibility learning, collaborative in ilchieving wJII have tim~. 1.32 Resource constrair)t5 will make it difficult to meet the need of exp<:lnding higher
<1rc of
1.31
information
and communication
is proposing which
by funding
Centres of Excellence
stcindards will have to be ensured. the poor quality institutions. PPP-models, will therefore in the education
But be
Private
actively promoted.
sector should
be fe-examined
equity.
in a pragmatic
manner
so as to ensure
1.33
Inadequate
infrastructure
was recognised
in the Eleventh Plan as a major constraint the need for a massive expansion of public and private investment in the
emphasized
based on a combin;;ltion
latter through
form; of public-private-partnerships. Substantial progress has been made in this respect. The total investment in infr<lstructure which includes roads, railways,
ports, airports, electricity, telecommunications, of the Plan. The oil gas pipelines iJnd irrigation
PclCQ
is estimated
base year of the Eleventh Plan to around of investment has been particularly into oil & gas pipelines; whil~ falling short
infrastructure
through
Government,
other devt!loping
countries/
India
pace of urbanjsation
in 2011,
is expected to <lccelerate over the next two decades. 'fhe 2011 Census
from 27.8 per cent in 2001 to 31.2 per cent a heavy demand
also shows an increase in the urban population for better quality infrastructure
a sufficiently 1.35
public transport
and low cost housing. Sin~e it takes time to create urban infrastructure, long term focus on urban planning in the Twelfth
I
We must introduce
'fhe Twelfth
Plan
in in
infrastructure, infrastructure
will have to bear a large part of the brunt of meeting infrastructure and expand
needs in
feaSible.
It is
necessary to review the ~actors which steps to rectify them. encouraged are already
.
private investment,
and take
appropriate
CJn also be
in this direction.
1
needs to
be
of rapid met
growth
will
pose
a major
challenge.
f::nergy
since
tl105(:
requirenlGnts constrained
in an envIronment
where
domes Lie
prices
<lIe
and world 0nergy prices Jr0 high rind likely to rise further.
at 9 percent,
percent
cornmerc;:i~1 energy
supplies
in the Twelfth
gener3tion
will require
coal supplies which can'not be fully met from domestic 1.37 Rational energy pricing is critical for both
effective
del"l'land management
and a
It is relevant for demand management, because energy users have to economize if energy is underpriced, It is also relevant for expansion of
because under-pricing of energy imposes a large burden on the energy
reducing thelresourc~$
in these areas. In the longer term, we must move beyond fossil fuels to non-conventional However, these new energy sources
than fossil
on these fuels will tnean higher per unit energy costs. in 2009, had enunciated principles
energy,
of energy pricing that equalize domestic while allowing for targeted in this direction, regulators, often
energy prices with the prices of imported below the world tariffs
subsidy to the needy and poor. While we have taken sorne steps prices. This i!: manner to
our energy prices still remain significantly prices (other than petrol) pressure, under political are not setting
reflect normative
the challenge
of aligning domestic
time span, but it
energy prices with the global price trends. This is not edsy to do in a short can be done gradu<1l1y laver a period of time. sustain high growth in tho Twelfth be de-linked It must be emphasized critically Plan will depend
adjustment.
in general
import dependence
J.39
Economic development
protects expected
the
environment.
iand,
I
With
of economic
growth,
these
prc!;sures
of w;)t~r, forest5,Jnd
1.40 require
Management attention
of water
resourr.p.s
difficult
will
in the Twelfth
of usable
ilnnually
in India is fixed, but its dem<Jnd from expanding Water reSOUrCes in many parts of the country
agriculture
excessive exploitation
these grcClter efficiency
opportunities
in walter use,
1.41
Agriculture
scope
accounts
for SO percent
efficiency holistic and
of water
of water
needs
at present,
irrigation strategies.
and there
better
is
This requires
of water I in command areas of large and medium aquifer domestic this management use can help agricuiture ground
putting feeders
limit the
for pumping
and excess use of gro,-!ndwater. scale watershed 1.42 supplies additional reflecting prograimmes,
levels haw recovered. pricing, but pricing 'lifeline' water for pricing in appropriately
use of scarce resources requires appropriate This problem consumers. can be solved
of water
issue.
by providing
use. There is also a $t~ong case of water recycled increased. This will
The proportion
urban areas, and by Indian industry supply for commercial 1.43 Even
needs to be significantly
happens if
purposes is appropriately
itself will not lead to optimal use. For this, a , regulatory measures to ration water to different to discourage contains pollution, It is estimated
if we succeed in bringing about a major rationalisation of water prices, this by rational pricing must be accompanied by
,
agricultural
measures
in rural
areaS
contaminants, including fertilizer run-offs (particularly urea and its decomposition products). Contamination of drinking water is the principal c<Juse of health disorders, particularly amongst c:hildren.
1.44 The availability of land has become resources,
d
chemical
major
constraint
on
expansion
of The
infrastructure,
developlnent
of mineral
industrialisation
and urbanisation.
for acquisition of land, and also for change in land use (lre archaic, often unfair and non~tramparent. They need ~ comprehensive review, A new modern law is
needed to govern the acquisition urb~nisation. This shoul~ legislation has been put'in of land for industrial use, infrastructure d(!velopment or also contain provisions for resettlement and r~habilitdtion. A draft
present
arrangements
the public domain before a final view is taken. Finalisation of this with an appropriate balance between the need to protect the interests of current land owners or those dependent on it for livelihood, and th~ broader objective of
legislation,
development
is critical. .
1.45
The protetlon
and strenBthening
area. This
On
which
helVe a lJe<lring on
Tlwy also impact WJI resource growth lies in
resources,
drinking wdter.
of energy for the economy, Since rapirJ economic dnd most of our electricity
I
the forcst.
gCrler;Hioll
tl1ere are
potential
conflicts between
Clnd ensurin/1;
an adequate
supply of
1.46
An overarching
requires
much
greJter
attention
in the Twelfth
Plan
Lr;
and improved
accountability.
1.47
programmes
their
outcomes
reveals
Can be
approach
relying
professionalization
local institutions,
deeper
to determine
1.48
different
Second, implelnentation
agencies to tJcilitate
development,
needed across
involving
must be improved
ancl also in the experiences management
in infrastructure
Project management,
to deliver
A n3tion-wide
capability
Japan,
as demonstrated
five Year Plan.
of
drive to irnprove
must be an integral part of the Twelfth 1.49 Third, is the broadQr Several legislative Lokpal, irHroduction of a legislative both accountability
issue of how to rid the system of corruption, costs. A number of initiatives procurement measures Jre needed.
which
is both of
n~ed to ce urgentlv
Zl'l
of ~ law on public
governing
and t.he to
framework
the functioning
of rcguliltory institutions,
and independence.
1.50
Finally, to combat
corruption,
it is imperative
to ensure process
speedy
prosecution
and trial
cynicism about the rule of law in our system. Reforms in the legal process need
1.51
India's
in
growth the
prospects
depend
largely but
on an ability be
to
tackle in
supply
domestic
economy, economy,
it cannot
viewed
isolation
in the world
if only because
our economy
is now much
integrated.
The share of exports of goods & services in GDP has increased from 14 to 22 per cent in 2010/11 (lnd India is now viewed as an important
1.52
Global economic
downturn
prospects
countries
arc clouded
in these countries
imb.alanc:es
robustly,
and concerns
about
sovereign
debt.
are growing
and India has been one of the leaders in this process. However, debt ;md fiscal unsust<iinability the export rnarkets
of an early return to robust growth in these countries, but also creates uncertainty in industrialised
affects
India
directly,
including
has
been
the
rise
in oil prices,
and
also
the
commodities,
a shift in economic
favourable in nominal economies projected
strength
towards
for India. Table 2.3 presents US Dollar terms between are projected
over the next two and emerging Asia is per year. Tt1ese
countries are likely to grow at about 3.5 percent per year 2010 and 2025, while developing Within this group, developing at around 10 percent
projections
forecasts,
are,
of course, subject
to the
usual
'qualifications
that
attend
long-term
but they
the current
perceptions.
The advanced
economies' share in global GDP is projected to fall from 65 per cent in 2011 to 51 percellt by 2025, while the share of 'emerging economies is proJected to increase from 3S per c~nt to about 49 percent over the same period. l'his is shown in Table 2.3 below:
Table 1.3
~- - - -=.= =- =
I Wor~G~ .
J
I
T I
2011-'
~.7
2016
9?5
!
T
I
2020
-II 2025-1
14'O~5
'11,0.5_
Advanced Economies
25.';
-14.4
53.3
61.1
I I
71 7
I
-
6.5
24.3
..~ __ .
Developing Asia
. ._
37,2
49.4
68.8
(41.1%LL{44.7%)
(48.9%~
-- --'.--'-- ._._I
a/which India ._
'--'--'\ Sub-Saharan Africa 1_,._ .. ._._ ~
1-2,3--1-10~
r'
I
17.4
T -;S~6-I-:;O7
[[S5;~1-L3:~~).1
i
2.5 I ~.2%). ~.9 ~2.8.%)I
I
11S.2%lj-.1l9.3%) I 1241%l.-.-J28.9%}~
,,_._I.~~~
0,3 . (1,O~~
I
i
If
~~~)
1,2 (1.8%_)
2.8
~3~~) 1.7
(l,9r~.
3.8
West Asia
&. North
Africa
I
1
0.8
5.0
7.1
I'
t- - 1 _'_.
--' -. _. _.
.. (4.5%U
(5.0%)-1
II
I
,
[FiglJres in
Sour!;/?: rhe
parentheses
World Eccnon,ic Outlook database of the lntcmalional Monetary Fund, This data up to 2010 in most ClISCS (up to 2009 cnd earlier In i:I few) is actui:l1 elata. Thereafter the figures up to 201G arc projections by the IMF. The pl'oJections for India and other countries beyond 201G have been m;Jde intern;:llly in the DP?P Division of the Planning Commission,
1.54
potential
The important
thf! third
point emerging from these projections is that India has the potential
largest GDP in the world rapid growth. in two decades. However, to realise this behind China has grown around 10 per cent per
to become
year in real terms for 30 years and is now expected to slow down. India is currently . rapid growth over the next two decades, provided supportive appropriate place. These policies our must promote and support our changes in infrastructure, manag~ment universities, industrial sophistication, management promoting
.Chin;), but the evidence suggests that India has now developed the potentiJI for Sllstaim~d
policies are put in sectors.' Our the and also our partic.ularly many
of cities,
of a whole
range of knowledge
institutions,
Institutional
emerging
from
this
overview
is that growth
in and
IS
well placed
to achieve
in the Eleventh
Plan. As pointed
II, this as an
from a macro-economic
economic
perspective
but it cannot
outcome.
likely to remain
constraints
increase
in water
scarcity, shortages
in
associated
and
health
inclusion of the most excluded and sometimes 1.56 These difficulties suggest
that a 9 percent growth target for the next five years is ambitious. But it is hot impossible, if we have the political will to do what is necessary. Economic reforms over the last twenty years have resulted in the citizens of India having
high expectations. The Twelfth Plan has to meet tile <lspirations of millions of young tllen
and women. This cannot be done by following a business-as-Llsual approach. All sections of society - government, farmers, businesses, labour and conc'erned citizens - have to adopt
newer, more effective ways of pursuingtheir
our lofty goals. activities,
achieve