POLARITY AND THE DISTRIBUTION AND DISSOLUTION OF POWER

Polarity; the Distribution and Dissolution of Power Christopher S. Burt University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

POLARITY AND THE DISTRIBUTION AND DISSOLUTION OF POWER According to realists, power is the one thing that everyone seems to be after. Julius Caesar killed for it, went mad with it, and was murdered because of it. Yet the age-old adage that history repeats itself has never been taken too seriously regarding it, because a similar chain of events delineates numerous other leaders throughout history. Scholars argue that balancing or distributing power rests largely on a system of poles. Global polarity is determined by the number of particularly powerful states relative to the remaining states in the system; more simply, how many superpowers exist at any given time.1 Holding true to their root words, uni-, bi-, tri-, and multipolar systems are those which are dominated by one, two, three, or multiple powers, respectively. Especially at present, it is sometimes difficult to determine polarity of the international system, but for a a variety of reasons, I believe the current state of our international system to be unipolar. Keep in mind, however, that it is hard, nay, impossible, to say for how long this stability will last. I personally agree with those experts that believe this unipolarity will be short-lived, and in twenty five years a system that more resembles a bipolar one will be prevalent. Before stressing more on the current unipolar system, a certain understanding of the history of polarity and its consequences on the systemic level is necessary. Edward Mansfield of Columbia University states that the behavior of states in the international system [is] influenced by the number of major powers and the distribution of power among them. 2 I felt that adding the word dissolution to the title of this paper was imperative in portraying that power is not only distributed and re-distributed with polarity changes, but dissolved just the same. During the early 1900's, the international system leaned towards multipolarity, with the dominant states in
1 Edward D. Mansfield, Concentration, Polarity, and the Distribution of Power, International Studies Quarteerly 37:1 (March 1993) 106 2 Mansfield, 107

POLARITY AND THE DISTRIBUTION AND DISSOLUTION OF POWER Europe focusing heavily on the balance-of-power system. This proved to be rather unstable, resulting in perhaps two of the most formidable wars in the short history of mankind. Organski later described these events as a result of his power transition theory. This theory simply states that there is a likelihood of war when an emerging power outside of the top states in the system attempts to challenge said system, much like the case with Germany in events leading up to World War II.3 After World War II, with much hanging in the balance, the United States rose to the occasion as the world's first superpower. Russia followed shortly thereafter, establishing a bipolar international system that lasted until the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, establishing the period of unipolarity dominated by the United States that exists today. With this information on the brief modern history of polarity in the international system, we can measure the concepts that define the status of the United States. While certainly the five permanent United Nations Security Council members, as well as others vying for those positions, fall under the category of powerful, the key term that sets the United States apart from others is superpower. Herein lies the question, what exactly constitutes a superpower? G. John Ikenberry states that advantages in military, economic, technological, cultural, [and] political capabilities are what set the United States apart from all other competitors.4 I will be focusing primarily on economic and military factors in arguing the United State's status as sole superpower, while also mentioning our political supremacy over most other states. Historically, we have always carried a big stick, referring to our vast military, and consequently the only way to pay for said military is through economic prosperity. The current unipolarity, also known as a hegemony, exists because, quite simply, the

3 A. F. K. Organski, World Politics, Knopf, 1958 4 G. John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled (Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 2002)

POLARITY AND THE DISTRIBUTION AND DISSOLUTION OF POWER United States does what it wants, with few real checks of its power. We so aptly demonstrated this in 2003. After several preliminary reports concluded that the United States would not even come close to the required nine votes from the United Nations Security Council to engage in a war with Iraq, we pulled our resolution and proceeded with the invasion as planned anyway. U.S. officials allegedly went as far as saying that the decision for war in Iraq is ours, and we have already made it... The only question now is whether the council will go along with it or not. 5 Certainly I am not going as far as to say that the United States abuses its power as the lone hegemon in the system, but that in itself is the brilliance of this unipolarity. While imperfect, the political system in the United States, to this point, has demonstrated that it is virtually incorruptible. With the balance of power that exists in the three institutions of our government, and the immense amount of freedoms that citizens enjoy in our country, the actions of the President or Congress will certainly not go unchecked. Of course I am not forming the entire basis of my lone superpower theory by saying that the U.S. does what it wants, when it wants. As I said, I will look at economic and military expenditure figures that further exemplify the current unipolarity. The bipolar system of the cold war fell with the Soviet Union's collapse, and immediately rendered the United States as the sole superpower in a hegemony system. If that were not enough, during the 1990s alone, the United States economy grew by 27 percent, which is three times that of Japan and almost twice that of the European Union. With a slower reduction of defense spending than other great powers after the Cold War ended, the United States, by the end of the 1990s had an advantage regarding their military capabilities. 6

5 The Left Coaster, Iraq Diplomacy Update, http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/000008.php (Feb. 22, 2011) 6 Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled

POLARITY AND THE DISTRIBUTION AND DISSOLUTION OF POWER While that is the nineties, there is substantial evidence that the dominance remains today, again by looking at the economic and military features. In this case, we will look at the major powers that exist today and their gross domestic product, as well as funding for military purposes. For argument's sake I will not be including the European Union as a state with its own GDP; that is an entirely separate research paper. As of 2010, the United States' estimated Gross Domestic Product was 50% higher than the next closest country, China, and more than three times any country behind China. Easily dispelling any argument that China, having such a booming economy, is a superpower right along side the U.S. is the glaring fact that China has the lowest per capita Gross Domestic Product of any major power by far.7 When taking into regard military expenditures, the United States once again tops the list of total funding in this category. While the percentage of its GDP that is spent on the military is around half that of countries such as Iraq and Israel, with such a high GDP, its total military funding is immensely greater than any other country, over three times that of the closest runnerup, China.8 Unbeknownst to few, there are countries other than the United States that possess nuclear weapons, but it is a common theory that the only effect rival nuclear weapons would have on the power of the United States would result in a meaningless nuclear holocaust, which would mutually destroy any other country.9 Like German scholar Josef Joffe, I believe that the hegemony of the United States will not last much longer than the roughly twenty years it has thus far. As mentioned multiple times already, China is up-and-coming in the international system, and within the next twenty five
7 CIA The World Factbook, Country Comparison :: GDP, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/rankorder/2001rank.html (Feb. 23, 2011) 8 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database, http://milexdata.sipri.org (Feb. 23, 2011) 9 Josef Joffe, Defying History and Theory: The United States as the Last Remaining Superpower, in G. John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press 2002), 156

POLARITY AND THE DISTRIBUTION AND DISSOLUTION OF POWER years, China won't just be knocking on the United States' door, it will be kicking it down as the world's next superpower. China's economy has exploded in recent years, and with that significant increases in military spending. According to Joffe, a superpower must also enjoy a surplus of usable... power. 10 China is certainly on their way up, and these statistics will show just how close they might be. Economically, China is close to falling within the realms of a superpower. We already established that its gross domestic product is well below that of the U.S., but the GDP growth rate of China is nearly 4 times that of the United States. With China's booming economy, there is no wonder that the country with the world's highest gross domestic product is also China's chief exporter. Visually demonstrated below in the graphs, the growth in U.S. dependency on China is immediately clear. We have gone from trading less than $5 million a year worth of merchandise in the 1970s to more than $400 billion in 2008. China also holds more U.S. Treasury securities than any other country, nearly $800 billion in 2009 and by now certainly more.11

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10 Joffe, 155 11 US-China Institute, Talking Points June 3-17, 2009, http://china.usc.edu/ShowArticle.aspx?articleID=1512 (Feb. 21/2011

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This evident U.S. dependency on China poses a threat in the near future to the hegemony of the United States. For now, however, we maintain a unipolar system with our country at the top of the hierarchy. The United States' superior economy and military has put and kept us at an advantage to all other states. At the same time, our stable political system makes the United States the optimal state to reign at the top of this international hierarchical system. Much more so than, say, a country that has no qualms about killing young, anti-governmental protestors in front of a global audience.

12 http://china.usc.edu/ShowArticle.aspx?articleID=1512

POLARITY AND THE DISTRIBUTION AND DISSOLUTION OF POWER Bibliography Edward D. Mansfield, Concentration, Polarity, and the Distribution of Power, International Studies Quarteerly 37:1 (March 1993) A. F. K. Organski, World Politics, Knopf, 1958 G. John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled (Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 2002) The Left Coaster, Iraq Diplomacy Update, http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/000008.php (Feb. 22, 2011) CIA The World Factbook, Country Comparison :: GDP, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html (Feb. 23, 2011) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database, http://milexdata.sipri.org (Feb. 23, 2011) Josef Joffe, Defying History and Theory: The United States as the Last Remaining Superpower, in G. John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press 2002), 156 US-China Institute, Talking Points June 3-17, 2009, http://china.usc.edu/ShowArticle.aspx? articleID=1512 (Feb. 21/2011)