SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer

July 2011 Survey Findings

Date: 23rd August 2011

2011. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.

The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including communication to any third party without Synovates express prior consent and/or payment of related professional services fees in full.

When I read or see a report of a poll, how can I tell whether to take it seriously or not?
Methodology: Target group - who was interviewed? Sampling method used random sampling or purposive sampling? Geographical coverage . Questions asked were the questions leading? Bases proportion of respondent who answered a particular question.

Affiliations & Membership: Members of Market and Social Research Association (MSRA) www.msra.co.ke Member of ESOMAR (European Society for Market Research) www.esomar.com Adheres to the ESOMAR guidelines on public opinion polling
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Study Objective

The objective of the study was to determine Zambians perception towards governance and
up coming elections.

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Methodology

Poll Methodology
Dates of polling Sample Size July 2011 1463 respondents

Sampling methodology Universe

Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Zambian adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
+/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Data collection methodology Sampling error

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Rationale
Sampling Methodology:
Multistage Stratified Sampling The survey covered all the 9 provinces however, this approach was used to randomly select the regions (districts, constituencies & wards to be included in the survey. PPS (Population Proportional to Size) Used to ensure representativeness of the sample for each area targeted In using this approach the samples were distributed based on population sizes. The 2000 National Population Census and Housing data was used during sample allocation. Use of the Census data so that findings can be projected to the population.

Universe Targeted respondents who are 18 years and above as they represent the universe of eligible voters.
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Sample split by Province

North Western Western Luapula Central Southern

6% 8% 8% 10% 12%

Distribution - Urban - Rural N=1463

Rural Urban

36%

Northern
Eastern Lusaka

13%

13%
15% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 64%

Copperbelt

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Perceptions Towards governance and topical issues

What would you say is the most important problem facing your community today?

Total

Rural

Urban

26% 24% 22%

23% 21%21% 19%

17% 16%

18% 17%16%

8%

8% 6% 3% 4% 2%

Poverty

Water and Sanitation

Unemployment

Infrastructure development

Health

Education

N: 1463
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Has the standard of living improved or gotten worse in the last 4 years?
N: 1463
Very much improved Improved Got worse Got much worse Just the same No answer/refused

61%

57%

56%

46%

37%
30% 21% 16% 16% 9% 5% 1% 2% 3% 21% 16%

39% 38% 31% 29%

40%

42%

44%

29% 22%

27%
20% 20% 20%

17% 14%
11% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 2% 5% 6% 0% 1% 1%

7%
3% 1%

7%
0%

4%
1% 1% 1%

3%

Central

Copperbelt

Eastern

Luapula

Lusaka

North Western

Northern

Southern

Western

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As far as you know has unemployment Increased or decreased over the last 4 years?

42% 41%

Total

Rural

Urban

40%

22% 22% 22% 20% 17% 18%

13%
9% 6%

8%

8% 4% 1%

3%

3%

Increased a lot

Increased a little

The same

Decreased a little

Decreased a lot

Don't know

N: 1463
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Do you expect that life for the next generation in Zambia will be better, remain the same as it is now, or become worse?

53%

55% 49%

54% 51%

33%

34%

35% 31% 31%

19% 14% 11% 15%

14%

Total Will be better

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Rural Urban Remain the same as it is now

Male Become worse

Female

N: 1463
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How well do you think our government is performing in solving the following issues in Zambia?

Very good 56%

Good

Poor

Very poor 56%

DK 54%

40% 36%

38%
34%

39% 36% 32% 32%

39% 34% 28%

25%

19%
14% 11% 10% 7% 2% 0% Access to health facilities/health care 7% 15%

18% 14% 15%

17% 12%
6% 5%

15%

13%

5%
0% Access to education

5%

5%

0% Constitutional and electoral reform Attracting foreign investment Improving infrastracture, Roads and Transportation

4% 1% Agriculture

Economic growth

Corruption

N: 1463
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How satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Zambia today?

53% 47%

Total

Rural

Urban

39% 35%

30% 26% 19%

14%

9% 10%

11%

7%

Very Satisfied

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Very dissatisfied N: 1463

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Awareness and opinions on the Barotse land agreement

Are you aware of the Barotse land agreement?
What are your views about the Barotse land agreement?
No 32%
42% 38%

Yes 68%

12%

N: 1463

9%

Should be allowed to prevail/adopted

Should be ignored

Should be renegotiated

No opinion/No response

N: 999
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Perceptions on elections

If presidential and parliamentary elections were to be held today how likely are you to vote?

80%

16%

3%

Top Box (Likely)

Bottom Box (Unlikely)

No answer/refused

N: 1463
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Thinking about how Zambia elects its president, which of the following methods do you think is the best?
Total Rural Urban

53% 48% 44% 39% 39%

53%

5%

5%

5%

3%

3%

4%

Prefer current system

Prefer majority system(50% +1 of votes cast)

Don't know

No answer/refused

N: 1463
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Do you think the Electoral Commission of Zambia(ECZ) is capable of conducting free and fair elections?

64%

61%
55% 45% 39% 36% Yes No

Total

Rural

Urban

N: 1463
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Which political party do you feel closest to?

MMD 42%

PF 37%

UPND 15%

Others 2%

Refused 3%

48%

48%

46%
40% 38% 35% 32%

31%

17% 11%

17% 13%

4% 2% 2% 2%

2% 3%

3% 1% Female

Rural

Urban

Male

N: 1463
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Which partys candidates would you vote for as member of parliament if elections were to be held today?

MMD

PF

UPND

Refused

81%

65% 56% 57% 52% 40% 36% 31% 33% 52% 48% 37% 34%

28% 14% 3% 1%
5% 17%

30%

29% 18% 15% 11%

21%
12% 4% 4% 4%

7%
2% 2%

3% 2%

3%

Central

Copperbelt

Eastern

Luapula

Lusaka

North Western

Northern

Southern

Western

N: 1463
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If elections were held today which political party would you vote for?

42% 37%

MMD

PF

UPND

Others

Refused

15%

2%

3%

MMD

PF

UPND

Others

Refused

N: 1463
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If elections were held today which political party would you vote for?
63 % 61 %

32 % 3%

30 %

2 %

49 %

29 %

18 %

58 % 32 %

5 %

81 % 12 % 3 %

42% 32% 19%

50 %

17 %

40 %
15 % 54%

37 %

15 %

31%
11%

N: 1463
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Have you read any of the political party manifestos?

Read manifesto

17%

Yes No

83%

N: 1463
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What informs your decision on who to vote for in an election?

42%

23%

18%

3%

External Influence

Candidates character

Leadership qualities

Party Affiliation

N: 1463
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Has the splitting of the PACT influenced your choice of presidential candidate?

Yes 7%

No

93%

N: 1463
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If presidential elections were held today whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?

Presidential candidate would vote for

15% 42%

37%

Rupiah Banda Michael Sata Hakainde Hichilema

N: 1463
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Reasons to vote for the selected presidential candidates.

63% 59% 53% 48% 41% 53% 49% 47%

61%

48% 47% 40% 31% 34% 31% 22% 11% 7%

20%

19%

Leadership experience

Seeks to improve people's welfare

Has clearly articulated their vision for the country

Past performance in public office

Fights corruption

Total

Hakainde Hichilema

Michael Sata

Rupiah Banda

N: 1463
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What would you like the govt to address after the elections?

92% 88% 86%

56% 53% 48%

58% 52% 41% 46% 41% 32% 41% 36% 33% 22%21%23% Total Rural Urban

Unemployment

Improve access the Medicare/drugs

Repair/Improve transport network-rural urban

Improve access to clean water and enhance sanitation

Revamp the Fight against corruption

Increase the minimum wage for civil servants

N: 1463
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What do you think the role of the media should be in the up coming elections?

41% 37% 31% 31%

35%
31%

37%

38% 31%

32%

18% 14%

17% 17%

17% 11%

18%

13%

15% 16%

Provide coverage for all candidates/parties Participate in educating the masses/sensitization

Should provide non biased reporting Highlight issues of concern which need to be addressed

N: 1463
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Thank You Q&A

.

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For more comprehensive analysis regarding the Poll contact:

Annie Kaluba Senior Research Manager

Anne.kaluba@synovate.com
David Chibanja Business Development Manager David.chibanja@synovate.com +260 211 263414 or follow the discussion on ://tweeter/SynovateZambia

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SPEC QUESTIONS COVERED IN THE SURVEY

Q1. In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Zambia today? [DONT READ RESPONSES] SINGLE MENTION
Q2.What would you say is the most important problem facing your community today? [DONT READ RESPONSES] SINGLE MENTION Q3.I would like to ask you some general questions regarding our country. On the whole, are things in Zambia generally going in the right direction, or are they going in the wrong direction? Q4.And how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Zambia today? Are you very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Q5. Using a scale of 1 to 4, were 1 is strongly agree and 4 is strongly disagree. How would you rate the following statements ? Q6. Has the standard of living improved or got worse in the last 4 years? Q7. ASK ALL:WHO MENTION 6a or 6b, (OTHERWISE SKIP TO Q8) what does very much improved or improved standard of living mean to you?

Q8. As far as you know has unemployment increased or decreased over the last 4 year?
Q9. Looking to the future, do you expect that life for the next generation in Zambia will be better, remain the same as it is now, or worse? Q10. I would like to ask you about domestic politics in our country. How well do you think our government is performing in solving the following issues in Zambia ? Would you say...
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Q11. How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption? Would you say they are? Very committedCommitted....Not committed.Not committed at all Q12. How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions over the last 1 year? Tell me do you; highly approve, approve, disapprove or highly disapprove of them?

Q13. Are you registered as voter?

Q14. When did you register as a voter?

Q15.ASK ALL WHO MENTION Q14(a), (OTHERWISE SKIP TO Q16)was this the first time or you have registered as a voter before?
Q16. Did you vote in the 2008 elections? Q17. Were you generally satisfied or dissatisfied with the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) conduct of the election in 2008? Q18.Which political party do you feel closest to if any? Q19.If presidential elections were held today, which party would you vote for? Q20.Have you read any of the political party manifestos?

Q21.IF YES IN Q20 ASK: Which political party manifestos have you read? (OTHERWISE SKIP Q22)
Q22.What informs your decision on who to vote for in an election?

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Q23. If presidential elections were held today, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?SINGLE MENTION

Q24. What are the three main reasons why you would vote for (INT:READ OUT CANDIDATE MENTIONED IN Q23)...
Q25. What are the three main factors that affect your preference for the choice of a presidential candidate? Q26. If presidential elections were held today,whom would you not vote for if that person was a candidate? SINGLE MENTION Q27. What is the main reason why you would NOT vote for (INT:READ OUT CANDIDATE MENTIONED IN Q27)SINGLE MENTION Q28. Has the splitting of the PACT influenced your choice of presidential candidate? Q29. When thinking about how Zambia elects its president, which of the following methods do you think is the best. The current method where the candidate with the largest percentage of the vote wins, (sometimes called the simple majority system), or a method that requires the winning candidate to achieve more than 50% +1 of the vote cast even if that means a second round, or a runoff election of the top two candidates in the intial round? Q30. How important is it to you personally that the method of electing the president in Zambia be changed? Q31. If there was an election for parliament in the next few weeks, how likely is it that you will vote in that election? Q32.Which party's candidate would you vote as member of parliament if election were to be held today?SINGLE MENTION

Q33. Thinking specifically about your own local council, are you satisfied with the overall performance of the local council?
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Q34. Do you feel that the members of your local council care about the same issues as you? Q35. Has any member of your local council ever contacted you about the issues that are important to you? Q36. What would you like the government to address after the elections?MULTI MENTION. Q37. Do you think the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) is capable of conducting free and fair elections? Q38.Why?MULTI MENTION.

Q39. Do you think gay rights should be an election issue?

Q40.Why do you say so?

Q41. What do you think should be the role of the media in the upcoming general elections?SINGLE MENTION
Q42. Have you seen or heard any election advert/documentary/articles featuring any political party? Q43. [IF YES] On which of the following channels have you seen or heard the advert? Q44. [ASK ALL WHO MENTIONED 43b OR 43c] Which television / Radio station did you see/hear the advertising on? Q45. Can you recall what the main theme of the advertising was? Q46. In general did you approve or disapprove of the advertising that you saw or heard? Q47. Did you find the message in the political advertisement believable?

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Q48. Are you aware about the Barotse land agreement

Q49. What are your views about the Barotse land agreement
Q50. Are you proud to be Zambian?

Q51. What is the single most important reason that makes you proud to be Zambian?
Q52. How likely is this community to engage in violence that is politically driven? Q53. Have you noticed any violent trends in your community that are politically motivated? Q54. Would you say individual or groups are responsible for instigating this violence? Q55. Which people would these be? Q56. How often does this violence happen? Q57. Who are the people that are mostly involved in this kind of violence?

Q58. What do you think is the main reason this violence erupts in the community?
Q59. Do you think government - or specifically the law enforcement are doing enough to address the issue of political violence? Q60. What are they doing?

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Q61. How would you rate the performance of the following in combating political violence in this area in the last 3 months? Would you say it was very good, good, poor or very poor..... Q62. What do you think can be done to reduce the violent trends in your community? Q63. [Do not read out] Interviewer: Indicate gender Q64. How old are you? Q64. What tribe are you? Q66. What is your main occupation?

Q67. Which of the following best describes your current education status?

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