Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
en Mxico, 1949-1999
Introduccin
La falta de series histricas completas de acervos de capital fijo no-residencial
para Mxico dificulta el anlisis de la acumulacin de capital y del desarrollo econmico en nuestro pas, y obstaculiza la estimacin de series histricas de tasa de
ganancia, de intensidad de capital (relacin capital/trabajo) y de densidad de capital (relacin capital/producto). El presente trabajo intenta ser una aportacin sobre
dichos acervos denotando que las series de acervos disponibles, adems de no ser
metodolgicamente compatibles entre s, muestran una o varias de las siguientes
insuficiencias:
1)
2)
3)
4)
231
Anlisis Econmico
1
Existen cuatro series ms de cuentas nacionales: la II (periodo 1960-1977) elaborada por el Banco de Mxico
(1978) la III (periodo 1970-1984) elaborada por las SPP (1981, 1983) e INEGI (1984, 1985, 1986); la IV (1980-1993)
elaborada por el INEGI (1996); la V (1988-1999) elaborada por el INEGI (1996b, 200l).
232
233
Anlisis Econmico
2) Presenta informacin a medio ao de acervos brutos y netos a precios constantes de 1980. Desglosa los acervos en maquinaria y equipo, construccin no residencial y construccin residencial.
3) Aplica el mtodo de inventarios perpetuos utilizando informacin sobre el producto interno bruto y la formacin bruta de capital fijo proveniente de series
histricas y de las sucesivas series de cuentas nacionales de Mxico.
4) El desglose de los acervos tiene el error de incluir (a partir de 1970) los edificios
no-residenciales dentro de la construccin residencial, considerando dentro de
la construccin no-residencial nicamente los rubros de otras construcciones y
de mejora de tierras y plantaciones. El resultado es la subestimacin de los acervos no-residenciales.
1.6 Serie F: 1950-1994
1) Constituye una revisin y actualizacin de la serie anterior (Hofman, 2000b).
2) Presenta informacin de acervos netos valuados en dlares internacionales constantes de 1980.
3) Aunque no lo hace explcito, parece corregir el error cometido en la serie E en la
estimacin de la construccin residencial, con lo que eliminara la subestimacin de los acervos no-residenciales.
2. Estimacin de series a precios constantes de 1980
Para estimar los acervos de capital fijo a precios constantes de 1980 se emple la
versin del mtodo de inventarios perpetuos descrita en Hofman/CEPAL (1992: 370372), cuya aplicacin resulta de utilidad cuando se cuenta con informacin limitada, como es el caso de Mxico.3 Para aplicar el mtodo sealado se requiere de la
siguiente informacin.
1) Serie consolidada de producto interno bruto (PIB) a precios constantes de 1980
para el periodo 1890-1999. Esta serie debe estar consolidada en el sentido de
que debe considerar las ampliaciones de cobertura que registran las sucesivas
series histricas y de cuentas nacionales (y que lleva a revisar la informacin
ms antigua).4
3
Las relaciones contables entre las distintas categoras utilizadas en el procedimiento se presentan en Villalpando
y Femndez (1986).
4
Los detalles de estimacin de esta serie se presentan en la seccin 5.1 del Apndice metodolgico.
234
* fbcf/pib(t)
(1)
= FBCF (t)
(2)
Las fuentes utilizadas en la estimacin de esas coeficientes se presentan en la seccin 5.2 del Apndice
metodolgico.
6
Las vidas tiles aplicadas a cada variedad de bien de capital y el mtodo de depreciacin se exponen en la
seccin 5.3 del Apndice metodolgico.
235
Anlisis Econmico
= FBCF(t) - CFB(t)
(3)
= r * FBCF(t)
(4)
CNF49
(5)
+ (FBCF50 RT50)
236
(6)
(7)
7
Las fuentes utilizadas para estimar las distintas series de ndices de precios se presentan en la seccin 5.4 del
Apndice metodolgico.
8
Hay diversos estudios que presentan coeficientes de formacin bruta de capital fijo/PIB, aunque no para todo
el periodo 1950-1999, ni desglosados por tipo de bien; entre ellos: para 1925-1940 Fitzgerald (1984: 293-294),
para 1940-1967 (no anuales) Hansen (1971: 61), para 1950-1976 Sols (1970: 290).
237
Anlisis Econmico
Cuadro 1
Formacin bruta de capital fijo como proporcin
del producto interno bruto (precios constantes)
1980-1999
(%)
Estimacin propia
Ao
1980-1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
2927
2928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1836
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
0.9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.3
2.4
1.5
1.3
1.9
3.0
4.2
4.1
3.7
3.4
3.2
4.4
4.9
4.4
4.3
4.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.2
5.4
4.0
3.9
3.5
4.4
3.8
2.5
1.6
2.5
4.1
4.7
3.9
5.5
2.4
3.5
3.8
3.3
4.2
4.6
4.6
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.7
5.5
4.2
4.4
4.2
4.2
Total
Ao
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
6.5
6.0
5.9
6.1
6.3
5.0
3.7
1.9
2.8
3.5
4.2
4.2
4.6
2.7
2.2
3.3
4.7
2.8
2.4
3.1
5.2
7.6
9.2
8.2
6.3
6.3
9.0
8.3
8.2
7.5
238
16.6
18.0
18.1
16.2
15.9
17.4
17.0
16.5
17.2
18.8
18.4
18.8
19.8
19.9
20.6
20.8
19.5
20.4
21.8
22.3
23.1
22.0
19.7
21.1
23.0
24.8
26.5
22.2
16.6
17.0
17.9
16.4
16.1
16.8
17.3
18.7
19.6
21.1
20.7
19.3
14.6
16.1
18.3
19.2
19.9
4.5
4.1
4.7
4.6
3.7
6.0
6.3
6.4
6.8
7.9
6.7
7.6
8.0
7.7
8.8
7.5
5.8
6.5
7.4
7.8
7.4
7.0
6.7
8.0
8.4
9.5
10.1
9.2
6.6
6.6
6.5
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.6
5.5
5.9
6.0
5.3
3.6
4.3
4.7
4.7
4.8
7.8
8.7
8.1
7.2
7.0
6.5
6.5
5.8
5.9
6.9
7.3
7.0
7.2
7.5
7.5
8.0
7.4
7.8
8.6
9.1
9.6
8.6
7.1
8.0
9.5
10.9
11.9
8.5
5.5
5.9
6.7
5.9
5.6
6.6
7.1
8.2
9.1
10.2
9.6
9.0
6.1
7.2
9.0
10.0
10.6
Cuadro 2
Acervos brutos de capital fijo a precios corrientes: 1949-1999
(Millones de pesos corrientes)
Total
Ao
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1=2+3
66,884
74,439
91,605
115,181
129,177
161,137
193,947
237,449
277,206
309,862
338,906
378,943
399,574
430,886
488,220
533,290
598,622
669,606
747,749
814,909
910,637
1,032,161
1,114,040
1,306,734
1,534,153
2,086,512
2,749,636
3,613,007
5,154,867
6,537,188
8,614,904
11,806,190
16,336,081
28,944,279
57,204,842
94,722,907
157,202,761
309,705,469
737,709,697
1,550,597,963
1,859,539,998
2,382,974,877
3,062,655,416
3,686,122,531
4,272,958,196
4,848,844,132
7,244,020,890
9,639,600,198
11,555,113,645
14,307,287,785
17,020,360,903
Estimacin propia
Residencial
Total
2
12,871
14,188
17,565
23,927
27,619
33,605
40,691
51,430
61,818
70,004
78,054
90,304
94,632
102,807
122,451
132,672
151,951
171,303
193,048
209,141
230,895
266,760
294,405
361,638
425,726
574,528
780,686
1,015,149
1,390,507
1,777,037
2,414,396
3,350,788
4,584,877
7,482,909
14,460,348
23,983,056
39,534,209
73,918,872
179,747,789
398,816,962
476,057,016
618,119,532
831,470,303
1,024,406,902
1,235,051,340
1,443,576,795
1,986,701,489
2,734,203,364
3,335,892,143
4,154,135,957
5,101,042,342
3=4+5
54,013
60,252
74,040
91,254
101,558
127,531
153,256
186,019
215,388
239,857
260,852
288,639
304,942
328,079
365,768
400,618
446,671
498,303
554,701
605,768
679,742
765,400
819,635
945,097
1,108,427
1,511,984
1,968,950
2,597,858
3,764,360
4,760,151
6,200,507
8,455,402
11,751,203
21,461,370
42,744,494
70,739,851
117,668,552
235,786,597
557,961,908
1,151,781,001
1,383,482,982
1,764,855,345
2,231,185,112
2,661,715,629
3,037,906,856
3,405,267,337
5,257,319,400
6,905,396,834
8,219,221,502
10,153,151,828
11,919,318,561
239
No-residencial
Construccin
no-residencial
4
29,079
30,481
36,618
47,439
52,254
58,077
66,624
80,271
91,017
99,161
105,743
124,096
130,321
153,003
173,713
192,630
220,098
254,420
289,731
315,926
361,441
413,344
440,068
518,138
599,523
848,282
1,115,787
1,467,282
2,037,636
2,620,706
3,436,249
4,766,375
6,677,043
11,803,830
20,518,289
35,025,925
59,756,453
112,533,538
263,778,151
602,339,453
748,723,385
984,974,871
1,277,199,037
1,545,511,277
1,808,559,333
2,052,550,654
2,927,875,992
3,939,591,911
4,987,747,088
6,161,985,314
7,287,575,274
Maquinaria
y equipo
5
24,933
29,771
37,422
43,815
49,304
69,454
86,633
105,748
124,372
140,696
155,108
164,543
174,621
175,076
192,055
207,988
226,573
243,883
264,969
289,842
318,301
352,056
379,567
426,959
508,904
663,702
853,163
1,130,576
1,726,724
2,139,445
2,764,258
3,689,027
5,074,160
9,657,539
22,226,205
35,713,926
57,912,099
123,253,059
294,183,757
549,441,548
634,759,596
779,880,474
953,986,075
1,116,204,352
1,229,347,523
1,352,716,683
2,329,443,409
2,965,804,923
3,231,474,413
3,991,166,514
4,631,743,287
Anlisis Econmico
Cuadro 3
Formacin de capital fijo a precios constantes: 1950-1999
(Millones de pesos de 1980)
Total
Ao
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1=2+3
103,665
131,500
136,405
131,559
136,511
153,953
178,760
193,653
182,219
184,691
218,389
221,713
224,490
252,769
305,959
317,626
345,608
385,265
422,178
452,083
487,536
474,196
536,560
616,875
667,895
731,062
727,893
675,723
786,092
942,430
1,106,758
1,286,376
1,070,371
767,667
817,006
881,160
777,198
776,246
875,428
939,040
1,068,639
1,164,081
1,300,690
1,301,809
1,262,846
896,585
1,043,575
1,263,106
1,392,968
1,500,056
Estimacin propia
Formacin bruta de capital fijo
Formacin neta de capital fijo
Residencial Total No-residencial
Total Residencial Total No-residencial
Construccin Maquinaria
Construccin Maquinaria
no-residencial y equipo
no-residencial y equipo
2
3=4+5
4
5
1=2+3
2
3=4+5
4
5
22,070
81,595
43,494
38,101
62,113
17,298
44,814
18,437
26,378
67,305
31,673
85,499
27,231
58,268
38,741
19,527
32,522
98,978
64,225
33,960
86,159
32,317
53,843
32,486
21,356
38,220
98,185
34,510
97,049
64,240
32,809
76,704
28,057
48,647
28,875
19,773
64,199
35,720
76,867
29,556
47,311
25,108
22,204
36,593
99,918
72,483
41,494
89,126
32,299
56,827
29,419
27,409
39,976
113,977
51,145
127,615
86,542 108,123
41,073
42,644
65,479
39,046
26,434
86,676 116,445
49,682
47,867
68,578
34,244
34,333
57,294
136,359
80,610
51,647
98,829
39,734
59,095
23,540
35,555
49,962
132,257
60,290
124,401
81,620
42,781
95,335
49,087
46,248
20,136
26,112
81,538 123,255
75,097
49,553
73,703
16,421
57,282
61,754
156,635
85,380 121,577
82,431
40,835
80,742
17,382
63,360
53,902
167,811
58,377
166,113
79,311 120,329
86,802
44,367
75,963
9,560
66,403
86,934 143,477
99,534
51,219
92,258
14,653
77,605
66,301
186,468
112,777 188,717
128,127
48,923 139,794
35,621
104,172
65,055
240,904
74,816
242,810
126,891 191,811
115,919
57,475 134,336
44,176
90,160
128,304 212,256
140,235
58,481 153,775
41,522
112,252
77,069
268,539
140,529 242,898
154,450
70,233 172,665
48,660
124,005
90,286
294,979
98,478
323,700
159,492 269,230
164,208
76,823 192,406
61,273
131,133
165,220 287,549
192,879
70,803 216,745
60,266
156,479
93,984
358,099
187,076 310,295
175,438
99,799 210,496
74,483
136,013
125,022
362,514
179,154 285,782 126,288 159,495
140,963
60,387
99,108
154,079
320,117
206,060 334,582 130,350 204,231
169,678
79,334
124,898
160,822
375,738
242,664 397,736 131,714 266,022
209,276
105,134
160,888
164,935
451,940
271,958 429,333 126,178 303,155
233,837
121,739
181,417
162,100
505,795
305,313 470,351 151,939 318,412
234,704
140,175
178,237
191,045
540,017
284,676 446,375 168,340 278,035
232,254
106,252
171,783
210,963
516,930
244,777 375,861 156,501 219,360
228,448
55,322
164,038
202,498
473,225
297,716 464,082 139,641 324,440
299,591
94,209
230,232
188,785
597,307
390,368 592,727 153,723 439,004
345,757
168,355
270,649
206,305
736,125
485,720 722,798 142,664 580,134
422,528
239,785
340,349
198,510
908,248
579,675 860,520 154,867 705,653
492,461
303,648
402,005
214,240 1,072,136
409,180 615,588 154,603 460,985
443,634
115,243
345,741
217,557
852,814
255,205 298,123 138,415 159,707
307,728
(45,112)
204,820
204,734
562,933
284,491 330,725 145,196 185,529
317,464
(23,778)
209,307
215,051
601,955
329,424 376,268 158,795 217,472
319,257
11,665
205,807
232,479
648,681
280,329 257,362 151,257 106,106
268,165
(44,175)
150,280
228,704
548,494
269,902 243,846 157,452
267,516
86,395
(58,858)
145,253
238,828
537,418
342,334 327,578 166,015 161,564
281,565
6,930
154,634
251,529
623,899
384,505 374,467 184,634 189,834
279,868
41,597
148,237
274,667
664,372
470,196 483,049 186,249 296,800
317,540
116,296
180,504
280,903
787,736
543,416 550,896 195,603 355,294
325,555
172,267
183,027
295,110
868,971
629,431 650,743 203,436 447,307
363,252
232,638
214,668
308,007
992,683
600,038 620,130 217,227 402,903
374,594
183,090
219,813
327,178
974,632
591,566 556,679 207,967 348,712
348,053
161,205
187,507
323,227
939,619
376,475 189,328 177,595
222,376
11,733
(46,603)
58,336
297,734
598,851
463,248 334,488 175,809 158,679
279,452
47,932
110,747
300,875
742,700
620,986 529,332 187,271 342,061
324,584
191,550
150,511
317,536
945,571
725,273 616,883 191,258 425,625
340,824
264,499
161,126
326,871 1,066,096
799,996 678,074 194,749 483,325
364,205
304,855
178,470
335,855 1,164,201
240
Fuente: Cuadro 3.
241
Anlisis Econmico
242
Ao
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1,260,172
1,342,081
1,450,341
1,561,296
1,673,815
1,792,528
1,923,529
2,071,603
2,242,324
2,403,043
2,561,220
2,742,128
2,910,122
3,070,026
3,261,014
3,514,611
3,775,204
4,039,991
4,347,049
4,690,894
5,076,334
5,488,920
5,876,574
6,326,458
6,862,723
7,448,998
8,098,522
8,741,035
9,337,447
10,024,071
10,841,357
11,806,190
12,949,247
13,864,065
14,452,561
15,088,422
15,767,499
Total
265,570
286,298
317,427
354,201
387,209
422,244
460,601
510,077
565,591
613,669
672,167
732,115
784,057
840,616
904,898
967,899
1,040,447
1,115,273
1,203,186
1,299,291
1,390,831
1,513,386
1,667,465
1,828,287
1,993,221
2,155,321
2,346,366
2,557,329
2,759,827
2,948,611
3,154,917
3,350,788
3,562,400
3,777,247
3,979,125
4,191,284
4,421,027
994,602
1,055,782
1,132,914
1,207,096
1,286,605
1,370,285
1,462,928
1,561,525
1,676,733
1,789,374
1,889,053
2,010,013
2,126,064
2,229,410
2,356,116
2,546,712
2,734,756
2,924,718
3,143,863
3,391,603
3,685,503
3,975,533
4,209,109
4,498,171
4,869,502
5,293,677
5,752,156
6,183,706
6,577,621
7,075,460
7,686,440
8,455,402
9,386,847
10,086,818
10,473,436
10,897,138
11,346,472
648,684
679,915
704,455
731,010
756,131
783,924
816,960
849,087
890,256
933,323
966,795
1,033,255
1,106,096
1,183,140
1,271,907
1,389,379
1,494,026
1,622,989
1,765,830
1,918,317
2,111,196
2,286,634
2,427,597
2,597,275
2,806,552
3,040,389
3,275,093
3,507,347
3,735,796
4,022,853
4,356,242
4,766,375
5,246,449
5,677,769
5,968,674
6,273,105
6,580,091
345,918
375,867
428,459
476,086
530,474
586,360
645,968
712,438
786,477
856,051
922,259
976,758
1,019,968
1,046,270
1,084,210
1,157,334
1,240,730
1,301,729
1,378,033
1,473,285
1,574,307
1,688,900
1,781,512
1,900,896
2,062,950
2,253,288
2,477,063
2,676,359
2,841,825
3,052,607
3,330,198
3,689,027
4,140,398
4,409,049
4,504,762
4,624,033
4,766,381
1,162,903
1,268,525
1,390,508
1,513,255
1,636,803
1,770,065
1,922,487
2,094,984
2,270,575
2,440,620
2,611,295
2,783,169
2,959,868
3,153,276
3,385,676
3,651,839
3,938,364
4,263,065
4,630,962
5,031,379
5,464,241
5,912,239
6,388,021
6,933,929
7,541,280
8,198,315
8,861,888
9,473,128
10,108,425
10,868,164
11,762,107
12,802,432
13,808,535
14,540,772
15,129,935
15,752,750
341,568
371,525
403,455
438,549
477,018
519,187
565,448
616,240
671,984
733,186
800,351
877,574
965,961
1,063,241
1,170,309
1,288,150
1,417,849
1,560,597
1,717,709
1,890,629
2,079,473
2,299,396
2,547,694
2,803,742
3,060,096
3,336,369
3,651,073
3,975,345
4,281,726
4,590,834
4,921,516
5,276,995
5,649,063
5,985,751
6,299,177
6,631,639
675,455
735,328
807,820
876,577
941,301
1,011,512
1,094,266
1,188,149
1,278,547
1,359,921
1,438,314
1,488,305
1,509,590
1,532,806
1,568,915
1,613,161
1,659,672
1,718,882
1,790,576
1,865,787
1,945,202
2,006,672
2,060,450
2,145,693
2,258,823
2,374,027
2,471,587
2,556,501
2,684,656
2,877,717
3,113,389
3,396,881
3,682,786
3,909,293
4,092,096
4,266,293
675,455
735,328
807,820
876,577
941,301
1,011,512
1,094,266
1,188,149
1,278,547
1,359,921
1,438,314
1,488,305
1,509,590
1,532,806
1,568,915
1,613,161
1,659,672
1,718,882
1,790,576
1,865,787
1,945,202
2,006,672
2,060,450
2,145,693
2,258,823
2,374,027
2,471,587
2,556,501
2,684,656
2,877,717
3,113,389
3,396,881
3,682,786
3,909,293
4,092,096
4,266,293
145,880
161,671
179,234
198,128
218,484
239,366
262,773
290,594
320,044
347,513
372,630
417,289
484,317
557,230
646,452
750,527
860,843
983,586
1,122,677
1,274,963
1,439,565
1,606,170
1,779,878
1,984,494
2,222,361
2,487,919
2,739,228
2,941,283
3,142,044
3,399,613
3,727,202
4,128,556
4,476,686
4,645,728
4,738,662
4,854,819
-13.35%
-12.54%
-10.94%
-9.59%
-8.69%
-7.98%
-7.20%
-6.57%
-5.51%
-4.71%
-4.77%
-4.36%
-3.59%
-3.30%
-3.67%
-3.27%
-2.52%
-1.93%
-1.28%
-0.89%
-0.45%
0.61%
0.97%
1.04%
1.24%
1.23%
1.38%
1.45%
0.84%
0.25%
-0.37%
-1.13%
-0.40%
0.61%
0.28%
-0.09%
19.31%
17.04%
13.91%
13.26%
12.97%
12.72%
10.86%
8.96%
9.50%
9.08%
9.32%
11.93%
14.91%
17.50%
20.91%
23.81%
27.13%
29.71%
32.20%
35.94%
37.41%
37.90%
39.35%
40.66%
41.98%
42.19%
42.77%
44.04%
45.21%
45.51%
46.88%
48.13%
49.56%
50.43%
50.29%
50.00%
-22.21%
-20.82%
-18.23%
-16.47%
-15.36%
-14.49%
-13.10%
-11.81%
-10.66%
-9.61%
-9.90%
-10.37%
-10.56%
-11.29%
-13.01%
-13.57%
-13.82%
-14.04%
-14.10%
-14.78%
-14.86%
-14.17%
-14.62%
-15.18%
-15.35%
-15.48%
-15.73%
-16.42%
-17.65%
-18.33%
-19.10%
-19.83%
-19.11%
-18.32%
-18.96%
-19.61%
-0.66%
4.38%
10.51%
15.93%
20.08%
23.81%
28.88%
33.46%
36.99%
40.66%
39.20%
34.55%
27.59%
20.51%
12.92%
7.97%
2.26%
-2.66%
-6.66%
-11.62%
-14.93%
-17.34%
-20.67%
-23.55%
-25.71%
-27.51%
-29.53%
-31.57%
-33.26%
-33.94%
-34.68%
-35.25%
-35.14%
-34.50%
-34.77%
-35.16%
contina
-61.19%
-62.27%
-62.35%
-62.65%
-62.74%
-62.94%
-63.12%
-63.05%
-62.61%
-62.32%
-61.85%
-59.09%
-53.71%
-48.60%
-44.14%
-39.51%
-33.87%
-28.62%
-23.80%
-19.01%
-14.76%
-9.84%
-6.37%
-3.80%
-1.37%
0.44%
2.35%
3.50%
2.93%
2.08%
1.03%
-0.29%
1.53%
3.13%
2.48%
1.86%
Cuadro 4
Acervos brutos de capital fijo a precios corrientes: 1949-1999
(Millones de pesos de 1980)
243
Anlisis Econmico
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Ao
4,646,827
4,882,572
5,130,827
5,402,020
5,679,234
5,970,427
6,274,277
6,597,041
6,915,582
7,208,342
7,503,936
7,815,865
8,136,785
8,466,322
11,704,871
12,022,678
12,393,082
12,778,221
13,256,577
13,833,901
14,569,722
15,231,495
15,767,092
15,860,524
16,014,656
16,537,797
17,334,057
18,199,734
6,837,315
7,091,280
7,362,013
7,634,606
7,948,079
8,266,663
8,617,830
8,977,281
9,311,681
9,514,357
9,784,917
10,096,252
10,422,443
10,772,616
4,867,556
4,931,398
5,031,068
5,143,615
5,308,498
5,567,238
5,951,892
6,254,214
6,455,412
6,346,166
6,229,739
6,441,546
6,911,614
7,427,119
16,334,772
16,839,424
17,335,022
17,854,006
6,955,993
7,274,211
7,611,801
7,969,214
9,378,779
9,565,214
9,723,221
9,884,792
4,515,623
4,535,107
4,637,051
4,731,511
4,963,156
5,030,107
5,086,170
5,153,281
-0.10%
-0.39%
-1.08%
-1.79%
49.69%
48.98%
48.35%
47.52%
-19.87%
-20.44%
-21.54%
-22.64%
-35.42%
-36.05%
-37.01%
-38.03%
1.96
2.00
1.10
0.19
Total
16,351,698
16,905,250
17,523,909
18,180,241
18,935,810
19,804,328
20,843,999
21,828,536
22,682,675
23,068,866
23,518,592
24,353,663
25,470,842
26,666,056
termina
Cuadro 4
Acervos brutos de capital fijo a precios corrientes: 1949-1999
(Millones de pesos de 1980)
244
man tanto los acervos totales, como la maquinaria y equipo. La subestimacin de los
acervos totales de la serie incluida en las Cuentas econmicas y ecolgicas de INEGI
base 1980 es corregida en la serie base 1993.
El Cuadro 6 presenta las estimaciones obtenidas de acervos netos de capital fijo a precios constantes de 1980 para el periodo 1949-1999, comparndose
con las estimaciones de Hofman/CEPAL (1992). Al igual que en el caso de los acervos brutos a precios constantes (vase el Cuadro 4) destaca el desplome de la dinmica de los acervos no-residenciales a partir de 1982 (vase la Grfica 3).
Finalmente en la Grfica 4 se presenta la evolucin de la edad relativa (en
relacin con la vida til) de los acervos de capital fijo calculada a partir de las
estimaciones de acervos netos y acervos brutos.9 Destaca el envejecimiento de
los acervos, particularmente de la maquinaria y equipo, a partir de 1982 como resultado de la disminucin de la formacin neta de capital fijo. Asimismo la renovacin relativa de la maquinaria y equipo a partir de 1990.
5. Apndice metodolgico
5.1 Serie consolidada del PIB aprecios constantes
La serie consolidada del PIB para 1890-1999 se basa en la serie consolidada de
para 1900-1995 (a precios constantes de 1980), (INEGI, 2000). Esta ltima
serie fue completada con la tasa promedio anual de incremento del PIB entre 1877 y
1895 (para 1890-1894) y con las tasas anuales entre 1895 y 1900 (para 1895-1899)
de la serie histrica consolidada de INEGI (1990) (a precios constantes de 1970);
adicionalmente con las tasas anuales de crecimiento entre 1993 y 1999 de la serie V
de cuentas nacionales (1988-1999).
INEGI
La edad relativa de los acervos es igual a 1-(ANCF/ABCF). Vase Gonzlez y Maria (1996: 321-323).
245
Anlisis Econmico
246
Ao
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
9,786
49,313
10,866
56,087
13,643
68,835
18,850
84,423
21,912
93,430
26,801
118,488
32,603
142,365
41,510
173,436
50,229
201,056
56,957
222,320
63,680
240,699
73,754
266,664
77,097
283,391
83,548
304,798
99,374
346,738
107,366
380,643
122,787
426,698
138,121
480,529
155,549
540,224
168,417
594,326
185,452
665,729
214,499
755,235
237,150
818,488
291,467
957,059
342,860
1,128,436
461,533
1,524,106
626,636
1,997,295
814,438
2,619,165
3,747,330 1,112,579
4,715,499 1,414,975
6,195,318 1,914,403
8,472,197 2,644,234
11,730,097 3,602,496
20,900,985 5,851,430
41,870,637 11,236,920
68,449,487 18,524,325
112,476,502 30,369,080
Total
22,616
39,527
25,178
45,222
29,706
55,192
35,728
65,573
38,693
71,517
46,881
91,686
55,086
109,762
65,617
131,926
74,767
150,827
82,443
165,362
88,781
177,019
101,762
192,911
110,685
206,294
126,202
221,250
144,151
247,364
162,162
273,277
182,935
303,910
210,514
342,408
239,955
384,675
265,785
425,909
303,530
480,277
342,983
540,736
366,349
581,337
421,130
665,592
491,149
785,576
675,164
1,062,573
869,370
1,370,660
1,804,727 1,145,021
2,634,751 1,652,236
3,300,524 2,101,201
4,280,915 2,720,757
5,827,964 3,708,602
8,127,601 5,158,143
15,049,555 9,489,790
30,633,717 18,332,722
49,925,161 30,852,928
82,107,422 51,962,636
16,911
20,044
25,486
29,844
32,824
44,806
54,676
66,309
76,061
82,920
88,238
91,148
95,609
95,048
103,213
111,115
120,975
131,894
144,720
160,124
176,748
197,753
214,988
244,462
294,427
387,408
501,290
659,706
982,515
1,199,324
1,560,158
2,119,361
2,969,458
5,559,765
12,300,994
19,072,233
30,144,786
83,224
96,945
119,580
137,991
146,254
180,724
209,880
240,855
277,721
315,302
339,671
379,424
390,650
422,123
468,910
517,498
583,829
666,796
742,071
Estimacin propia
Total
Residencial Total No-residencial
Construccin Maquinaria
no-residencial y equipo
3=4+5
2
5
1=2+3
4
38,329
41,120
54,202
56,022
58,813
78,577
93,497
102,914
118,733
133,458
143,328
152,686
160,604
176,111
182,795
213,961
244,689
283,434
318,086
68.77%
72.85%
73.72%
63.45%
56.54%
52.53%
47.42%
38.87%
38.13%
41.82%
41.12%
42.29%
37.85%
38.49%
35.23%
35.95%
36.83%
38.76%
37.36%
126.65%
105.15%
112.67%
87.71%
79.18%
75.37%
71.00%
55.20%
56.10%
60.95%
62.43%
67.51%
67.98%
85.29%
77.10%
92.56%
102.26%
114.89%
119.79%
57,058,181
106,877,115
-16.64%
-4.98%
contina
Cuadro 5
Acervos netos de capital fijo a precios corrientes: 1949-1999
(Millones de pesos corrientes)
247
Anlisis Econmico
1=2+3
222,351,300
526,315,823
1,079,031,097
1,283,294,781
1,633,612,397
2,076,312,341
2,472,385,514
2,832,879,330
3,199,356,709
4,925,814,857
6,575,359,049
7,714,907,973
9,427,741,961
11,033,431,023
Ao
Total
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
termina
56,429,340
136,389,807
300,878,228
357,391,102
461,662,265
617,962,339
757,700,312
909,477,045
1,057,479,557
1,445,180,763
1,974,645,589
2,392,965,247
2,960,037,853
3,610,619,762
165,921,959
389,926,016
778,152,869
925,903,679
1,171,950,133
1,458,350,002
1,714,685,203
1,923,402,285
2,141,877,152
3,480,634,094
4,600,713,460
5,321,942,727
6,467,704,108
7,422,811,260
104,217,562
248,066,122
517,695,879
626,453,159
798,380,378
993,100,749
1,161,875,839
1,307,999,928
1,452,042,218
2,289,361,879
3,032,842,740
3,573,704,434
4,302,585,366
4,894,475,563
61,704,398
141,859,894
260,456,990
299,450,521
373,569,755
465,249,253
552,809,363
615,402,358
689,834,934
1,191,272,215
1,567,870,720
1,748,238,292
2,165,118,742
2,528,335,698
187,453,304
450,891,133
929,480,512
1,165,121,894
1,472,403,624
1,865,150,223
2,291,116,042
528,496,359
1,082,721,062
1,270,143,746
1,604,036,245
2,051,464,169
2,448,780,794
2,827,659,018
3,241,588,217
4,902,124,150
6,537,608,878
7,833,859,111
9,470,108,918
11,360,748,870
-15.69%
-14.33%
-13.86%
-9.21%
-9.875
-10.17%
-7.33%
0.41%
0.34%
-1.02%
-1.81%
-1.20%
-0.95%
-0.18%
1.32%
-0.48%
-0.57%
1.54%
0.45%
2.97%
Cuadro 5
Acervos netos de capital fijo a precios corrientes: 1949-1999
(Millones de pesos corrientes)
248
643,681
1949
845,976 202,294
688,496
1950
908,088 219,593
746,764
1951
993,588 246,824
800,607
1952 1,079,747 279,140
849,254
1953 1,156,451 307,197
896,565
1954 1,233,319 336,753
953,393
1955 1,322,445 369,052
1956 1,430,568 411,696 1,018,872
1957 1,547,013 459,564 1,087,450
1958 1,645,842 499,297 1,146,545
1959 1,741,177 548,385 1,192,793
1960 1,864,433 597,937 1,266,495
1961 1,986,009 638,772 1,347,238
1962 2,106,339 683,139 1,423,200
1963 2,249,816 734,358 1,515,459
1964 2,438,533 783,281 1,655,252
1965 2,630,344 840,756 1,789,588
1966 2,842,600 899,237 1,943,363
1967 3,085,497 969,469 2,116,028
1968 3,354,727 1,046,293 2,308,434
1969 3,642,276 1,117,096 2,525,180
1970 3,952,571 1,216,895 2,735,675
1971 4,238,353 1,343,183 2,895,170
1972 4,572,934 1,473,533 3,099,401
1973 4,970,670 1,605,248 3,365,423
1974 5,400,004 1,731,426 3,668,578
1975 5,870,355 1,883,365 3,986,990
1976 6,316,730 2,051,705 4,265,025
1977 6,692,591 2,208,206 4,484,385
1978 7,156,673 2,347,847 4,808,826
1979 7,749,400 2,501,570 5,247,830
1980 8,472,197 2,644,234 5,827,964
1981 9,332,718 2,799,101 6,533,617
1982 9,948,305 2,953,703 6,994,602
1983 10,246,428 3,092,119 7,154,309
1984 10,577,153 3,237,315 7,339,838
1985 10,953,421 3,396,110 7,557,311
409,059
435,437
454,964
476,321
496,093
518,297
545,705
572,139
606,472
642,027
668,140
725,422
788,782
855,185
932,790
1,036,962
1,127,122
1,239,375
1,363,380
1,494,513
1,650,992
1,787,005
1,886,113
2,011,011
2,171,898
2,353,315
2,531,552
2,703,335
2,867,373
3,097,604
3,368,253
3,708,602
4,110,607
4,456,349
4,661,169
4,870,476
5,076,283
234,622
264,452
842,154
253,059
289,550
922,835
291,800
316,031
324,286 1,016,201
345,072
353,161 1,105,913
376,911
378,269 1,191,981
411,810
407,687 1,285,192
450,058
446,733 1,394,883
491,966
480,977 1,519,246
537,879
504,517 1,640,111
588,169
524,653 1,751,317
643,245
541,074 1,871,979
705,755
558,456 2,001,876
776,591
568,016 2,132,462
854,551
582,669 2,274,474
940,355
618,290 2,446,518
662,466 2,645,188 1,034,790
703,988 2,858,210 1,138,725
752,648 3,097,595 1,253,117
813,921 3,366,694 1,379,017
874,187 3,656,079 1,517,583
948,670 3,964,773 1,670,089
1,009,057 4,271,505 1,851,372
1,088,390 4,586,839 2,056,843
1,193,524 4,954,619 2,265,613
1,315,263 5,366,807 2,469,954
1,455,439 5,811,507 2,689,454
1,561,691 6,263,221 2,942,032
1,617,013 6,666,093 3,197,702
1,711,221 7,074,613 3,429,288
1,879,576 7,594,239 3,657,614
2,119,361 8,238,678 3,901,045
2,423,010 9,010,500 4,162,801
2,538,253 9,723,175 4,434,482
2,493,141 10,138,697 4,663,827
2,469,363 10,403,871 4,863,710
2,481,028 10,708,757 5,076,942
577,702
633,285
700,170
760,842
815,071
873,382
944,825
1,027,280
1,102,232
1,163,148
1,228,734
1,296,121
1,355,871
1,419,923
1,506,163
1,610,398
1,719,485
1,844,478
1,987,677
2,138,497
2,294,684
2,420,133
2,529,996
2,689,005
2,896,853
3,122,053
3,321,189
3,468,390
3,645,325
3,936,626
4,337,634
4,847,699
5,288,693
5,474,870
5,540,161
5,631,815
478,553
522,834
576,942
625,504
668,313
714,992
772,458
838,985
899,678
949,089
1,002,611
1,034,969
1,037,477
1,041,495
1,057,631
1,083,496
1,111,274
1,147,359
1,192,981
1,241,731
1,292,115
1,316,996
1,326,783
1,366,202
1,435,642
1,508,210
1,562,028
1,604,728
1,684,665
1,820,613
1,999,206
2,225,054
2,446,858
2,599,288
2,704,446
2,805,053
99,149
110,451
123,228
135,338
146,758
158,390
172,367
188,295
202,554
214,059
226,123
261,152
318,394
378,428
448,532
526,902
608,211
697,119
794,696
896,766
1,002,569
1,103,137
1,203,213
1,322,803
1,461,211
1,613,843
1,759,161
1,863,662
1,960,660
2,116,013
2,338,428
2,622,645
2,841,835
2,875,582
2,835,715
2,826,762
-7.26%
-7.12%
-5.89%
-4.37%
-3.35%
-2.82%
-2.49%
-1.79%
-0.35%
0.58%
0.40%
0.80%
1.24%
1.10%
0.33%
0.56%
0.55%
0.39%
0.36%
0.38%
0.31%
0.78%
0.30%
-0.32%
-0.61%
-1.00%
-0.85%
-0.40%
-1.15%
-2.00%
-2.76%
-3.45%
-2.26%
-1.05%
-1.64%
-2.23%
20.43%
17.31%
13.22%
12.33%
11.93%
11.59%
9.32%
7.05%
7.73%
7.25%
7.58%
10.49%
13.68%
16.37%
20.05%
23.08%
26.63%
29.26%
31.80%
35.85%
37.24%
37.83%
39.59%
41.14%
42.65%
42.80%
43.39%
44.81%
46.06%
46.21%
47.53%
48.72%
50.13%
50.83%
50.24%
49.49%
-16.09%
-15.20%
-12.55%
-10.41%
-9.09%
-8.39%
-7.27%
-5.53%
-3.86%
-2.49%
-2.98%
-3.79%
-4.73%
-6.30%
-9.01%
-10.01%
-11.52%
-12.83%
-13.90%
-15.31%
-16.12%
-16.41%
-18.37%
-20.10%
-21.04%
-21.69%
-22.13%
-22.66%
-24.20%
-24.99%
-25.57%
-25.80%
-24.39%
-23.47%
-24.52%
-25.48%
9.90%
14.92%
21.12%
26.09%
28.94%
31.02%
35.01%
38.34%
40.13%
42.05%
38.21%
31.21%
21.32%
11.65%
1.99%
-3.87%
-10.34%
-15.84%
-20.18%
-24.79%
-27.69%
-30.17%
-34.02%
-37.10%
-38.99%
-40.42%
-42.22%
-44.03%
-45.61%
-45.95%
-46.09%
-45.87%
-45.09%
-44.24%
-44.47%
-44.74%
-60.82%
-62.15%
-62.00%
-61.68%
-61.20%
-61.15%
-61.42%
-60.85%
-59.85%
-59.20%
-58.21%
-53.24%
-43.95%
-35.05%
-27.46%
-20.46%
-13.60%
-7.38%
-2.36%
2.58%
5.68%
9.32%
10.55%
10.83%
11.10%
10.88%
12.64%
15.25%
14.58%
12.58%
10.34%
8.24%
11.96%
15.34%
14.84%
13.94%
contina
Cuadro 6
Acervos netos de capital fijo a precios corrientes: 1949-1999
(Millones de pesos de1980)
249
Anlisis Econmico
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
11,210,783
11,454,630
11,782,208
12,156,676
12,639,725
13,190,621
13,841,363
14,461,494
15,018,173
15,207,500
15,541,988
16,071,320
16,688,203
17,366,277
3,547,367
3,704,819
3,870,834
4,055,467
4,241,717
4,437,319
4,640,755
4,857,982
5,065,949
5,243,544
5,419,353
5,606,624
5,797,882
5,992,632
7,663,416
7,749,811
7,911,375
8,101,208
8,398,008
8,753,302
9,200,608
9,603,512
9,952,223
9,963,956
10,122,635
10,464,696
10,890,321
11,373,646
5,226,563
5,371,816
5,526,450
5,674,686
5,855,190
6,038,217
6,252,885
6,472,698
6,660,205
6,718,540
6,829,287
6,979,798
7,140,925
7,319,395
2,436,853
2,377,995
2,384,925
2,426,522
2,542,818
2,715,085
2,947,723
3,130,814
3,292,019
3,245,416
3,293,347
3,484,897
3,749,396
4,054,251
10,974,991
11,169,778
11,372,874
11,611,520
5,276,056
5,463,244
5,664,120
5,878,870
5,698,936
5,706,534
5,708,755
5,732,651
2,890,952
2,955,323
2,998,572
3,023,727
2,807,984
2,751,211
2,710,183
2,708,924
-2.10%
-2.49%
-3.47%
-4.48%
48.73%
47.46%
46.33%
44.96%
-25.63%
-26.37%
-27.84%
-29.24%
-44.69%
-44.98%
-45.74%
-46.72%
15.23%
15.69%
13.64%
11.64%
termina
Cuadro 6
Acervos netos de capital fijo a precios corrientes: 1949-1999
(Millones de pesos de1980)
250
251
Anlisis Econmico
3)
4)
5)
6)
252
de capital (Banco de Mxico, 1995) utiliza vidas tiles de 30 aos para construccin e instalaciones (que en su totalidad es no-residencial) y de 14 aos en promedio para la suma de maquinaria y equipo de operacin, equipo de transporte y mobiliario y equipo de oficina.
Las vidas tiles utilizadas en este trabajo para los distintos tipos de acervos de capital fijo fueron las siguientes:
1) 60 aos para construccin residencial siguiendo a INEGI (1994) que atiende las
especificidades de este tipo de acervos en Mxico.
2) 58 aos para construccin no-residencial, asumiendo que el 95% de dicha construccin tiene una vida til de 60 aos y el 5% cultivos permanentes de 25 aos.
3) 15 aos para maquinaria y equipo siguiendo al Banco de Mxico y a CEPAL que
se basan en el criterio ms extendido internacionalmente.10
5.3.2 Mtodo de depreciacin
El mtodo de depreciacin utilizado es lineal, es decir, se aplica una tasa uniforme
de consumo de capital fijo a todo lo largo de la vida de los bienes de capital. El
valor remanente al final de la vida til es cero.
5.4 ndices de precios
Las fuentes utilizadas fueron:
5.4.1 Periodo 1994-1999
Serie V de cuentas nacionales(1988-99) y a precios de 1993.
5.4.2 Periodo 1980-1993
Serie IV de cuentas nacionales (1980-93) a precios de 1980.
5.4.3 Periodo 1970-1979
Serie III de cuentas nacionales (1970-84) a precios de 1970.
5.4.4 Periodo 1939-1969
10
253
Anlisis Econmico
Serie 1950-1967
Banco de Mxico (1969), Cuentas nacionales y acervos de capital, consolidadas y
por tipo de actividad, 1950-1967, Banco de Mxico, S.A., Mxico, junio, 1969.
254
Serie 1960-1977
Banco de Mxico (1978) Serie informacin econmica. Producto interno bruto y
gasto, cuaderno 1960-1977, Banco de Mxico, Mxico, 1978.
Serie 1970-1984
(1981), Sistema de cuentas nacionales de Mxico, 1970-1978, SPP/Banco de
Mxico/PNUD, Mxico, 1981.
SPP (1983), Sistema de cuentas nacionales de Mxico, 1979-1981, SPP/PNUD, Mxico, 1983.
INEGI (1984), Sistema de cuentas nacionales de Mxico, 1980-1982, INEGI/PNUD,
Mxico, 1984.
INEGI (1985), Sistema de cuentas nacionales de Mxico, 1981-1983, INEGI/PNUD,
Mxico, 1986.
INEGI (1986), Sistema de cuentas nacionales de Mxico, 1982-1984, INEGI/PNUD,
Mxico, 1986.
SPP
Serie 1980-1993
(1994), Sistema de cuentas nacionales de Mxico, 1989-1992, SPP, Mxico,
1994.
INEGI (1996a), Estadsticas de contabilidad nacional, 1980-1993, Base de datos
Mxico, 1996.
INEGI
Serie 1988-1999
INEGI (1996b), Sistema de cuentas nacionales de Mxico, 1988-1994, SPP, Mxico.
(200la), Estadsticas de contabilidad nacional, 1988-1999, Banco de Informacin Econmica, Mxico, 2001.
INEGI
255
Anlisis Econmico
Banco de Mxico (1991), Encuesta de acervos, depreciacin y formacin de capital (1960-1989) (discos flexibles), Banco de Mxico, Mxico, 1991.
Banco de Mxico (1 995), Encuesta de acervos, depreciacin y formacin de capital (1960-1993) (discos flexibles), Banco de Mxico, Mxico, 1995.
Hofman, Andr A. (199 l). The Role of Capital in Latin America: A Comparative
Perspective of Six Countries for 1950-1989 Working Papel No. 4, ECLAC (CEPAL),
diciembre, 1991.
Hofman, Andr. (cepal) (1992), Capital Accumulation in Latin America: a Six
Country Comparison for 1950-89, Review of Income and Wealth, Series 38,
Number 4, diciembre 1992.
Hofman, Andr A. (2000), Standardised capital stock estimates in Latin America:
a 1950-94 update Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2000, 24, pp. 45-86.
INEGI (1996c), Sistema de cuentas econmicas y ecolgicas de Mxico, 1985-1992,
INEGI, Mxico.
INEGI (1999), Sistema de cuentas econmicas y ecolgicas de Mxico, 1988-1996,
INEGI, Mxico, 1999.
INEGI (2001b), Sistema de cuentas econmicas y ecolgicas de Mxico, 1993-1999,
INEGI, Mxico, 2001.
Referencias Bibliografcas
Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis (1993). Fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States, 1925-89. Washin ton: Govemment
Printing Office.
Fitzgerald, E. V. K. (1984). La reestructuracin a travs de la depresin: el Estado
y la acumulacin de capital en Mxico, 1925-1940 en Rosemary Thorp
(compiladora), Amrica Latina en los aos treinta. El papel de la periferia en la
crisis mundial, Mxico: FCE, pp. 281-321.
Gonzlez Martnez, Jaime y Maria Flores, Abelardo (1996). Metodologa para la
elaboracin de indicadores sobre formacin de capital, innovacin tecnolgica,
productividad y costos, para Mxico en Cristin Leriche G. (editor), Lecturas
sobre mtodos y enfoques de la economa, Mxico: UAM-A, pp. 309-336.
Hansen, Roger D. (1971). La poltica del desarrollo mexicano, Mxico: Siglo
XXI.
Moctezuma, Andrs (1995). Evaluacin de las cuentas de acervos de capital del
Banco de Mxico en Economa: teora y prctica, Mxico: UAM, nueva poca,
nm. 5, pp. 109-114.
256