INDEX

1. Company Info
2. Income Statement
3. Balance Sheet
4. Cash Flow Statement
5. Ratio Analysis
6. DCF Analysis
7. Risk Analysis

Back

Coal India Ltd. Schedule 'A' Navratna' Publice sector under Ministry of Coal, Govt of India. The
based on their raw cola production. Also they are the largest reserve holder in the world based
coal and coaking coal of various grades for diverse applications. Most of their coal production

Company Details
Company Name
Industry Type
Country of Incorporation
Year of Incorporation
Company Type
Web-site

Coal India Limited

Mining/Minerals
India
1973
Public
www.coalindia.in

India. The compnay is the largest coal producing company in the world
world based on their reserve base. The company produces non-cocking
production comes from open cast mines.

Market Details
BSE Code
NSE Code
Face Value (INR)
Share Outstandings
IPO Price Band (INR)
Issue Date

533278
COALINDIA
10
6316.36 crores
225-245
18-Oct-10

Back
Coal India Limited (Income Statement)
Reported Currency - INR (in millions)
Assigned Feature

2006
Actual

Particulars
INCOME
Sales
Coal Issued for other Purpose
Accretion in Stock
% of Sales

Total Revenues

Other Income
Total Sales Revenue

287,018
20,540
4,838
1.7%
27,691
340,088

Y-O-Y
EXPENDITURES
Raw Material
% of Sales
Y-O-Y
Employee's Remuneration & Social Overhead
% of Sales
Contratual Expenses
% of Revenue
Y-O-Y
Miscelleaneous Expenses
% of Revenue
Y-O-Y
Operating Cost

111,557
38.9%
19,745
5.8%
13,281
3.9%

Total COGS

225,622

Gross Profit

114,465
33.7%

% of Revenue
Financial Expenses

81,039
28.2%

Interest

909
% of Total Debt

Operating Cost

Overburden removal Adjustment

% of Revenue
Y-O-Y

Operating Cost
D&A
Operating Cost
Operating Cost

Operating Income

12,099
3.6%

Finacial/Commitement Charges
Depretiation
Impairment
Provision/Write-off

283
13,154
319
445

Total Operating Cost

27,209

Operating Income
% of Revenue

88,165
25.9%

EBITDA
% of Revenue
PROFIT FOR THE YEAR

87,256

Prior Period Adjustment

Tax

285

PROFIT BEFORE TAX, EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS

Provision for Income Tax
Tax Rate
Provision for Deferred Tax (written-back)
Provision for Income Tax for earlier Year
Excess Prov for Income Tax written-back (earlier)
Fringe Benefit Tax
Tax Paid
PROFIT AFTER TAX, BEFORE EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS
Extraordinary Items (Net of Tax)

58,915

ADJUSTEMENTS FOR RESTATEMENT:

a) Change in Accounting Policies
b) Other Adjustements and Prior Period Items
c) Current tax on Adjustments
d) Deferred tax on Adjustments
e) Arrear Salary and Wage
Total Adjustments after Tax Impacts

(841)
3,219
(686)
529
0
2,221

PROFIT AFTER TAX (RESTATED)

Net Profit Margin
Profit(Loss) brought forward from previous year
Less: Trasitional Provision for Employee Benefit
Profit(Loss) available for appropriation

61,136
18.0%
(17,516)
0
43,620

APPROPRIATION
Reserve for foreign Exchange Transaction
Transfer to General Reserve
Transfer to CSR Reserve

31
7,876
0

Interim Dividend
Dividend Payout Ratio
Tax on Dividend
Dividend Tax Rate
Total Appropriation

87,541
28,708
32.8%
(1,876)
1,921
(128)
345
28,970
58,572
343

PROFIT AFTER TAX (As per Audited Accounts)

Net Income

101,319
29.8%

12,633
20.7%
4,756
37.7%
25,297

Retained Earnings

18,324

Number of Shares Outstanding

6,316

Earning per Share (EPS)

9.68

REVENUE DRIVERS

Annual Raw coal production (MT)

343.4
Y-O-Y

Average coal prices (INR/tonne)

723
Y-O-Y

Revenue from Raw sale (INR mn)

% of Sales
Y-O-Y
Annual Beneficiated coal production (MT)

248,278
86.5%

15.4
Y-O-Y

Average Beneficiated coal prices (INR/tonne)

1,901
Y-O-Y

Revenue from Beneficiated sale (INR mn)

% of Sales
Y-O-Y
Other revenue
% of Sales
Y-O-Y

Total Annual Sales

29,313
10.2%

9,427
3.3%

287,018

Interest Income

11,004
% of Cash

Othe operational Income

% of Sales

12,092
4.2%

Others

4,595
Y-O-Y

Total Other Income

% of Sales

27,691
9.6%

COST DRIVERS
Total No. of Employee

450,392
Y-O-Y

Average Cost per Employee

0.248
Y-O-Y

Employee's Remuneration & Social Overhead

% of Revenue

111,557
32.8%

2007
Actual

2008
Actual

2009
Actual

2010
Actual

2011
Estimate

2012
Estimate

2013
Estimate

2014
Estimate

296,022
19,405
2,476
0.8%
32,152
350,055
2.9%

326,339
19,745
2,442
0.7%
37,641
386,167
10.3%

387,888
20,220
1,336
0.3%
51,196
460,640
19.3%

446,154
20,690
6,672
1.5%
52,408
525,924
14.2%

520,722
20,690
2,604
0.5%
61,242
605,257
15.1%

606,865
20,690
3,034
0.5%
69,231
699,821
15.6%

706,696
20,690
3,533
0.5%
87,334
818,254
16.9%

816,378
20,690
4,082
0.5%
109,396
950,546
16.2%

82,389
27.8%
1.7%
115,756
39.1%
20,934
6.0%
6.0%
12,640
3.6%
-4.8%
231,719

86,328
26.5%
4.8%
142,580
43.7%
26,333
6.8%
25.8%
14,873
3.9%
17.7%
270,114

92,346
23.8%
7.0%
216,272
55.8%
33,399
7.3%
26.8%
19,285
4.2%
29.7%
361,302

94,866
21.3%
2.7%
186,730
41.9%
37,318
7.1%
11.7%
19,336
3.7%
0.3%
338,250

104,144
20.0%
9.8%
194,106
37.3%
42,368
7.0%
13.5%
24,210
4.0%
25.2%
364,829

121,373
20.0%
16.5%
206,655
34.1%
48,987
7.0%
15.6%
27,993
4.0%
15.6%
405,008

141,339
20.0%
16.5%
229,594
32.5%
57,278
7.0%
16.9%
32,730
4.0%
16.9%
460,941

163,276
20.0%
15.5%
261,002
32.0%
66,538
7.0%
16.2%
38,022
4.0%
16.2%
528,838

118,336
33.8%

116,052
30.1%

99,338
21.6%

187,673
35.7%

240,429
39.7%

294,813
42.1%

357,313
43.7%

421,709
44.4%

849
3.7%
16,866
4.8%
39.4%
232
13,116
462
1,169

1,499
7.0%
15,640
4.1%
-7.3%
194
15,299
307
2,320

1,565
8.3%
21,772
4.7%
39.2%
224
16,629
280
1,760

1,365
6.4%
30,539
5.8%
40.3%
195
13,138
156
2,094

1,461
7.0%
36,315
6.0%
18.9%
0
15,685
0
0

1,220
7.0%
41,989
6.0%
15.6%
0
23,946
0
0

1,604
7.0%
49,095
6.0%
16.9%
0
25,161
0
0

2,079
7.0%
57,033
6.0%
16.2%
0
26,444
0
0

32,694

35,259

42,230

47,487

53,461

67,156

75,860

85,555

86,491
24.7%

82,292
21.3%

58,673
12.7%

141,551
26.9%

188,428
31.1%

228,877
32.7%

283,057
34.6%

338,232
35.6%

99,607
28.5%

97,591
25.3%

75,302
16.3%

154,689
29.4%

204,113
33.7%

252,824
36.1%

308,218
37.7%

364,676
38.4%

85,642

80,793

57,108

140,186

186,968

227,657

281,453

336,153

(537)

221

1,111

277

85,863
31,685
36.9%
(2,780)
(356)
0
388
28,937
56,925

81,905
35,986
43.9%
(2,488)
765
(0)
484
34,745
47,159

57,385
36,839
64.2%
(1,032)
460
(142)
507
36,632
20,753

139,650
44,332
31.7%
(336)
576
(1,147)
0
43,425
96,225

186,968
63,569
34.0%
0
0
0
0
63,569
123,399

227,657
77,403
34.0%
0
0
0
0
77,403
150,254

281,453
95,694
34.0%
0
0
0
0
95,694
185,759

336,153
114,292
34.0%
0
0
0
0
114,292
221,861

162

5274

33

57,088

52,433

20,785

96,225

(272)
(1,494)
2,654
(1,321)
(14,602)
(15,035)

780
(5,523)
5,209
(1,513)
(8,535)
(9,583)

533
(766)
(2,882)
2,004
20,951
19,841

58
2,437
(2,342)
(227)
2,185
2,113

42,053
12.0%

42,851
11.1%

40,627
8.8%

98,338
18.7%

123,399
20.4%

150,254
21.5%

185,759
22.7%

221,861
23.3%

18,324
0
60,377

30,988
(6,878)
66,961

32,088
0
72,714

40,758
(4)
139,091

0
0
123,399

0
0
150,254

0
0
185,759

0
0
221,861

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

138
8,906
0

67
8,897
0

70
9,339
0

73
12,671
1,592

15,000
35.7%
5,344
35.6%
29,388

17,054
39.8%
8,853
51.9%
34,872

17,054
42.0%
5,494
32.2%
31,957

22,100
22.5%
7,771
35.2%
44,207

123,399

150,254

185,759

221,861

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

24,680
20.0%
8,638
35.0%
33,318

30,051
20.0%
10,518
35.0%
40,569

37,152
20.0%
13,003
35.0%
50,155

44,372
20.0%
15,530
35.0%
59,903

30,988

32,088

40,758

94,884

90,081

109,685

135,604

161,959

6,316

6,316

6,316

6,316

6,316

6,316

6,316

6,316

6.66

6.78

6.43

15.57

19.54

23.79

29.41

35.12

360.9
5.1%
741
2.4%

379.5
5.1%
784
5.8%

403.7
6.4%
872
11.2%

431.3
6.8%
958
9.9%

461.4
7.0%
1,054
10.0%

494.7
7.2%
1,154
9.5%

531.8
7.5%
1,258
9.0%

571.7
7.5%
1,358
8.0%

267,315
90.3%
7.7%

297,485
91.2%
11.3%

351879
90.7%
18.3%

413,159
92.6%
17.4%

486,289
93.4%
17.7%

570,825
94.1%
17.4%

668,864
94.6%
17.2%

776,551
95.1%
16.1%

14.1
-8.4%
1,949
2.5%

14.3
1.2%
1,913
-1.8%

15.0
4.7%
2,260
18.2%

14.6
-2.5%
2,136
-5.5%

14.7
1.0%
2,200
3.0%

14.9
1.1%
2,270
3.2%

15.1
1.2%
2,347
3.4%

15.3
1.3%
2,432
3.6%

27,515
9.3%
-6.1%

27,333
8.4%
-0.7%

33,808
8.7%
23.7%

31,160
7.0%
-7.8%

32,415
6.2%
4.0%

33,821
5.6%
4.3%

35,390
5.0%
4.6%

37,141
4.5%
4.9%

1,193
0.4%
-87.3%

1,520
0.5%
27.5%

2,201
0.6%
44.8%

1,834
0.4%
-16.7%

2,018
0.4%
10.0%

2,220
0.4%
10.0%

2,442
0.3%
10.0%

2,686
0.3%
10.0%

296,022

326,339

387,888

446,154

15,553
11.6%
11,773
4.0%

20,955
13.2%
10,948
3.4%

28,447
13.6%
16,368
4.2%

26,940
9.1%
18,477
4.1%

520,722

35,170
9.0%
20,829
4.0%

606,865

40,238
9.0%
24,275
4.0%

706,696

54,112
9.0%
28,268
4.0%

816,378

71,440
9.0%
32,655
4.0%

4,826
5.0%
32,152
10.9%

5,738
18.9%
37,641
11.5%

6,381
11.2%
51,196
13.2%

6,991
9.6%
52,408
11.7%

5,243
-25.0%
61,242
11.8%

4,719
-10.0%
69,231
11.4%

4,955
5.0%
87,334
12.4%

5,301
7.0%
109,396
13.4%

439,343
-2.5%
0.263
6.4%
115,756
33.1%

426,077
-3.0%
0.335
27.0%
142,580
36.9%

412,350
-3.2%
0.524
56.7%
216,272
47.0%

397,138
-3.7%
0.470
-10.4%
186,730
35.5%

393,167
-1.0%
0.494
5.0%
194,106
32.1%

391,201
-0.5%
0.528
7.0%
206,655
29.5%

395,113
1.0%
0.581
10.0%
229,594
28.1%

401,039
1.5%
0.651
12.0%
261,002
27.5%

2015
Estimate

2016
Estimate

2017
Estimate

2018
Estimate

2019
Estimate

2020
Estimate

926,966
20,690
4,635
0.5%
134,686
1,086,976
14.4%

1,033,881
20,690
5,169
0.5%
162,377
1,222,117
12.4%

1,132,349
20,690
5,662
0.5%
192,094
1,350,794
10.5%

1,217,526
20,690
6,088
0.5%
222,455
1,466,758
8.6%

1,290,904
20,690
6,455
0.5%
253,558
1,571,606
7.1%

1,368,729
20,690
6,844
0.5%
286,136
1,682,399
7.0%

185,393
20.0%
13.5%
306,155
33.0%
76,088
7.0%
14.4%
43,479
4.0%
14.4%
611,116

206,776
20.0%
11.5%
351,466
34.0%
85,548
7.0%
12.4%
48,885
4.0%
12.4%
692,675

226,470
20.0%
9.5%
398,211
35.2%
94,556
7.0%
10.5%
54,032
4.0%
10.5%
773,268

243,505
20.0%
7.5%
444,902
36.5%
102,673
7.0%
8.6%
58,670
4.0%
8.6%
849,750

258,181
20.0%
6.0%
476,490
36.9%
110,012
7.0%
7.1%
62,864
4.0%
7.1%
907,547

273,746
20.0%
6.0%
510,320
37.3%
117,768
7.0%
7.0%
67,296
4.0%
7.0%
969,130

475,860
43.8%

529,442
43.3%

577,526
42.8%

617,008
42.1%

664,059
42.3%

713,269
42.4%

2,645
7.0%
65,219
6.0%
14.4%
0
27,717
0
0

3,287
7.0%
73,327
6.0%
12.4%
0
28,256
0
0

4,003
7.0%
81,048
6.0%
10.5%
0
28,508
0
0

4,785
7.0%
88,005
6.0%
8.6%
0
29,087
0
0

5,620
7.0%
94,296
6.0%
7.1%
0
29,114
0
0

6,522
7.0%
100,944
6.0%
7.0%
0
29,369
0
0

95,581

104,869

113,558

121,877

129,031

136,835

382,924
35.2%

427,859
35.0%

467,970
34.6%

499,916
34.1%

540,649
34.4%

582,956
34.7%

CAGR
2011-2020

11.3%

410,642
37.8%

456,115
37.3%

496,478
36.8%

529,003
36.1%

569,763
36.3%

612,325
36.4%

380,279

424,573

463,967

495,131

535,029

576,434

380,279
129,295
34.0%
0
0
0
0
129,295
250,984

424,573
144,355
34.0%
0
0
0
0
144,355
280,218

463,967
157,749
34.0%
0
0
0
0
157,749
306,218

495,131
168,344
34.0%
0
0
0
0
168,344
326,786

535,029
181,910
34.0%
0
0
0
0
181,910
353,119

576,434
195,987
34.0%
0
0
0
0
195,987
380,446

250,984

280,218

306,218

326,786

353,119

380,446

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

250,984
23.1%

280,218
22.9%

306,218
22.7%

326,786
22.3%

353,119
22.5%

380,446
22.6%

0
0
250,984

0
0
280,218

0
0
306,218

0
0
326,786

0
0
353,119

0
0
380,446

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

50,197
20.0%
17,569
35.0%
67,766

56,044
20.0%
19,615
35.0%
75,659

61,244
20.0%
21,435
35.0%
82,679

65,357
20.0%
22,875
35.0%
88,232

70,624
20.0%
24,718
35.0%
95,342

76,089
20.0%
26,631
35.0%
102,721

183,218

204,559

223,539

238,554

257,777

277,726

6,316

6,316

6,316

6,316

6,316

6,316

39.74

44.36

48.48

51.74

55.91

60.23

608.8
6.5%
1,454
7.0%

642.3
5.5%
1,541
6.0%

671.2
4.5%
1,618
5.0%

694.7
3.5%
1,682
4.0%

715.5
3.0%
1,733
3.0%

737.0
3.0%
1,785
3.0%

5.3%

884,919
95.5%
14.0%

989,605
95.7%
11.8%

1,085,844
95.9%
9.7%

1,168,803
96.0%
7.6%

1,239,983
96.1%
6.1%

1,315,498
96.1%
6.1%

11.7%

15.5
1.4%
2,524
3.8%

15.7
1.3%
2,615
3.6%

15.9
1.2%
2,704
3.4%

16.1
1.1%
2,791
3.2%

16.2
1.0%
2,874
3.0%

16.4
1.0%
2,961
3.0%

1.2%

39,092
4.2%
5.3%

41,026
4.0%
4.9%

42,930
3.8%
4.6%

44,791
3.7%
4.3%

46,596
3.6%
4.0%

48,474
3.5%
4.0%

4.6%

2,954
0.3%
10.0%

3,250
0.3%
10.0%

3,575
0.3%
10.0%

3,932
0.3%
10.0%

4,325
0.3%
10.0%

4,758
0.3%
10.0%

10.0%

926,966 1,033,881 1,132,349 1,217,526 1,290,904 1,368,729

91,829
9.0%
37,079
4.0%

114,839
9.0%
41,355
4.0%

140,307
9.0%
45,294
4.0%

167,002
9.0%
48,701
4.0%

194,967
9.0%
51,636
4.0%

224,224
9.0%
54,749
4.0%

6.0%

3.4%

11.3%

22.9%
11.3%

5,779
9.0%
134,686
14.5%

6,183
7.0%
162,377
15.7%

6,492
5.0%
192,094
17.0%

6,752
4.0%
222,455
18.3%

6,954
3.0%
253,558
19.6%

7,163
3.0%
286,136
20.9%

409,060
2.0%
0.748
15.0%
306,155
28.2%

419,287
2.5%
0.838
12.0%
351,466
28.8%

431,865
3.0%
0.922
10.0%
398,211
29.5%

442,662
2.5%
1.005
9.0%
444,902
30.3%

451,515
2.0%
1.055
5.0%
476,490
30.3%

460,546
2.0%
1.108
5.0%
510,320
30.3%

3.5%
18.7%

1.8%
9.4%
11.3%

Back
Coal India Limited (Balance Sheet)
Reported Currency - INR (in millions)
Assigned Feature

2006
Actual

Particulars
FIXED ASSETS
Gross Block
Accumulated Depreciation
Provision for Impairment
Other Provisions
Net Block

177,916
15,520
0
103,298

Capital Work in Progress

Surveyed off Assets

10,988
228
114,515

PP&E
Investments
Non Current Assets
Non Current Assets

Current Asset
Current Asset
Cash
Current Asset

296,734

Total Fixed Assets

Investments
Net Interest in Joint Venture
Deferred Tax Assets

22,445
0
7,281

CURRENT ASSETS, LOAN & ADVANCE

Inventories
Sundry Debtors
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advance
Current Assets
Total Current Assets

Total Assets

Total Assets

391,492

LIABILITIES AND PROVISIONS

Secured Loans
Unsecured Loans

Current Liability
Current Liability
Current Liability
Current Liability

Total Liabilities

Total Debt

2,477
20,713
23,190

Total Current Liabilities

216,438
0
4,859
4,469
225,766

Current Liabilities and Provisions

Minority Interest
Shifting and Rehabilitation Fund
Deferred Tax Liability

Total Liabilities
SHAREONWER'S EQUITY
Share Capital

29,134
18,841
134,272
65,004
112,979
247,252

248,956

63,164

Total Equity
Total Assets =

Reserve & Surplus

Less: Misc Expenditures (not written-off)
Total Shareholder's Equity

79,373
0
142,536

Total Liabilities & Total Shareholder's Equity

391,492

Workings

Total Debt

Total Revenues
COGS

340,088
225,622

Total Debt

23,190
0.16

D/E

PP&E
Depreciation

114,515
13,154
% of PP&E

Capex(Tangible)

Capex
% of Revenue
% of PP&E

10,988
3.2%

Inventories
Inventory Turnover
Days Inventory

29,134
7.7
47

Sundry Debtors
Recievable Turnover
Days Recievable

18,841
18.1
20

Loan and Advances

65,004
19.1%

% of Revenue

Current Liability

216,438

Sundry Creditors
% of Revenue
Employee Remunerations

6,056
1.8%
89,784

% of Revenue
Power & Fuel, Repairs and Other Expenses
% of Revenue
Provision for Income Tax and Other Benefits
% of Revenue
Equity-Cash

26.4%
20,259
6.0%
100,339
29.5%
8,264

2007
Actual

2008
Actual

2009
Actual

0
2010
Actual

307,017

318,592

332,550

349,453

0
2011
Estimate

0
2012
Estimate

0
2013
Estimate

0
2014
Estimate

440,242

475,233

512,054

550,076

199,310
3,777
5
103,925

210,095
4,106
4
104,387

218,028
4,430
4
110,088

224,911
4,228
4
120,310

240,596
0
0
199,645

264,543
0
0
210,690

289,704
0
0
222,351

316,148
0
0
233,929

12,377
241
116,543

15,392
291
120,071

18,223
972
129,283

21,082
1,198
142,590

40,951
(240,596)
217,693

53,852
(264,543)
228,738

67,353
(289,704)
240,398

82,219
(316,148)
251,976

20,259
0
6,602

17,179
0
7,878

15,052
0
9,548

12,821
2
9,658

12,821
0
0

12,821
0
0

12,821
0
0

12,821
0
0

31,250
16,822
159,293
78,184
126,257
285,549

34,074
16,572
209,615
102,663
153,308
362,923

36,666
18,475
296,950
117,271
172,411
469,361

44,015
21,686
390,778
86,655
152,356
543,134

49,977
25,787
447,090
90,789
166,552
613,642

55,481
30,774
601,244
104,973
191,228
792,472

63,143
37,103
793,774
122,738
222,984
1,016,758

72,444
44,404
1,020,318
142,582
259,430
1,279,748

428,954

508,050

623,244

708,204

844,157

1,034,032

1,269,978

1,544,546

3,327
18,112
21,439

2,247
16,592
18,839

1,805
19,680
21,485

4,669
16,199
20,869

0
0
17,429

0
0
22,913

0
0
29,693

0
0
37,791

236,171
0
6,881
2,331
245,383

305,945
0
9,459
1,801
317,204

399,423
19
12,238
0
411,681

413,847
236
14,774
0
428,857

478,153
0
0
0
478,153

552,859
0
0
0
552,859

646,421
0
0
0
646,421

750,932
0
0
0
750,932

266,822

336,043

433,165

449,726

495,582

575,772

676,114

788,723

63,164

63,164

63,164

63,164

63,164

63,164

63,164

63,164

98,968
0
162,131

108,843
0
172,007

126,916
0
190,080

195,330
15
258,479

285,411
0
348,575

395,097
0
458,260

530,701
0
593,864

692,659
0
755,823

428,954

508,050

623,245

708,204

844,157

1,034,032

1,269,978

1,544,546

350,055
231,719

386,167
270,114

460,640
361,302

525,924
338,250

605,257
364,829

699,821
405,008

818,254
460,941

950,546
528,838

21,439
0.13

18,839
0.11

21,485
11.3%

20,869
8.1%

17,429
5.0%

22,913
5.0%

29,693
5.0%

37,791
5.0%

116,543
13,116
11.5%
12,377
3.5%
10.8%

120,071
15,299
13.1%
15,392
4.0%
13.2%

129,283
16,629
13.8%
18,223
4.0%
15.2%

142,590
13,138
10.2%
21,082
4.0%
16.3%

217,693
15,685
11.0%
90,789
15.0%
63.7%

228,738
23,946
11.0%
34,991
5.0%
16.1%

240,398
25,161
11.0%
36,821
4.5%
16.1%

251,976
26,444
11.0%
38,022
4.0%
15.8%

31,250
7.4
49

34,074
7.9
46

36,666
9.9
37

44,015
7.7
47

49,977
7.3
50

55,481
7.3
50

63,143
7.3
50

72,444
7.3
50

16,822
20.8
17.5

16,572
23.3
15.7

18,475
24.9
14.6

21,686
24.3
15.1

25,787
23.5
15.6

30,774
22.7
16.1

37,103
22.1
16.6

44,404
21.4
17.1

78,184
22.3%

102,663
26.6%

117,271
25.5%

86,655
16.5%

90,789
15.0%

104,973
15.0%

122,738
15.0%

142,582
15.0%

305,945

399,422

413,847

478,153

552,859

646,421

750,932

8,663
1.9%
101,647

7,725
1.5%
105,648

12,105
2.0%
121,051

13,996
2.0%
139,964

16,365
2.0%
163,651

19,011
2.0%
190,109

236,171
7,277
2.1%
62,540

7,057
1.8%
83,489

17.9%
22,499
6.4%
143,854
41.1%
2,839

21.6%
28,952
7.5%
186,446
48.3%

22.1%
29,872
6.5%
259,241
56.3%

20.1%
35,687
6.8%
264,787
50.3%

20.0%
42,368
7.0%
302,629
50.0%

20.0%
48,987
7.0%
349,911
50.0%

20.0%
57,278
7.0%
409,127
50.0%

20.0%
66,538
7.0%
475,273
50.0%

(37,608)

(106,870)

(132,299)

(98,515)

(142,984)

(199,910)

(264,495)

0
2015
Estimate

0
2016
Estimate

0
2017
Estimate

0
2018
Estimate

0
2019
Estimate

0
2020
Estimate

582,685

613,238

647,008

676,343

707,775

741,423

343,865
0
0
238,820

372,120
0
0
241,118

400,629
0
0
246,379

429,716
0
0
246,628

458,830
0
0
248,945

488,199
0
0
253,224

105,045
(343,865)
256,868

131,003
(372,120)
259,166

154,249
(400,629)
264,427

183,088
(429,716)
264,675

209,885
(458,830)
266,993

234,975
(488,199)
271,272

12,821
0
0

12,821
0
0

12,821
0
0

12,821
0
0

12,821
0
0

12,821
0
0

83,714
52,267
1,275,988
163,046
299,027
1,575,015

94,887
57,091
1,558,971
183,318
335,295
1,894,266

105,927
61,251
1,855,578
202,619
369,798
2,225,375

116,404
64,500
2,166,303
220,014
400,918
2,567,221

124,322
66,958
2,491,378
235,741
427,021
2,918,399

132,758
69,374
2,838,767
252,360
454,491
3,293,258

1,844,705

2,166,253

2,502,624

2,844,718

3,198,213

3,577,352

0
0
46,952

0
0
57,180

0
0
68,357

0
0
80,285

0
0
93,174

0
0
107,060

858,711
0
0
0
858,711

965,473
0
0
0
965,473

1,067,127
0
0
0
1,067,127

1,158,739
0
0
0
1,158,739

1,241,569
0
0
0
1,241,569

1,329,096
0
0
0
1,329,096

905,663

1,022,653

1,135,484

1,239,024

1,334,743

1,436,155

63,164

63,164

63,164

63,164

63,164

63,164

875,878
0
939,041

1,080,437
0
1,143,600

1,303,976
0
1,367,140

1,542,530
0
1,605,694

1,800,307
0
1,863,471

2,078,033
0
2,141,196

1,844,705

2,166,253

2,502,624

2,844,718

3,198,213

3,577,352

1,086,976
611,116

1,222,117
692,675

1,350,794
773,268

1,466,758
849,750

1,571,606
907,547

1,682,399
969,130

46,952
5.0%

57,180
5.0%

68,357
5.0%

80,285
5.0%

93,174
5.0%

107,060
5.0%

256,868
27,717
11.0%
32,609
3.0%
12.9%

259,166
28,256
11.0%
30,553
2.5%
11.9%

264,427
28,508
11.0%
33,770
2.5%
13.0%

264,675
29,087
11.0%
29,335
2.0%
11.1%

266,993
29,114
11.0%
31,432
2.0%
11.9%

271,272
29,369
11.0%
33,648
2.0%
12.6%

83,714
7.3
50

94,887
7.3
50

105,927
7.3
50

116,404
7.3
50

124,322
7.3
50

132,758
7.3
50

52,267
20.8
17.6

57,091
21.4
17.1

61,251
22.1
16.6

64,500
22.7
16.1

66,958
23.5
15.6

69,374
24.3
15.1

163,046
15.0%

183,318
15.0%

202,619
15.0%

220,014
15.0%

235,741
15.0%

252,360
15.0%

858,711

965,473

21,740
2.0%
217,395

24,442
2.0%
244,423

1,067,127
27,016
2.0%
270,159

1,158,739
29,335
2.0%
293,352

1,241,569
31,432
2.0%
314,321

1,329,096
33,648
2.0%
336,480

20.0%
76,088
7.0%
543,488
50.0%

20.0%
85,548
7.0%
611,059
50.0%

20.0%
94,556
7.0%
675,397
50.0%

20.0%
102,673
7.0%
733,379
50.0%

20.0%
110,012
7.0%
785,803
50.0%

20.0%
117,768
7.0%
841,200
50.0%

(336,946)

(415,370)

(488,438)

(560,609)

(627,907)

(697,571)

Back
Coal India Limited (Cash Flow Statement)
Reported Currency - INR (in millions)
Assigned Feature

Particulars

2006
Actual

CFO
Net Profit before Tax & Extraordinary Items
Adjustements
Restated Profit before Tax

(CFO)

87,541
3,250
90,791

Adjustments for Depreciation/Impairment

Operating Profit before Working Capital Change

12,987
103,778

Investments
Sundry Debtors
Inventories
Loan & Advance
Current Liabilities & Provisions
Deferred Tax Assets/Liabilities
Change in Working Capital

0
1,881
(4,620)
(14,413)
28,213
(1,502)
9,559

Income Tax Paid/Refund/Paid for earlier years

Misc Expenditures

(29,661)
0

Cash Flow From Operatiing Activities

83,676

CFI

(CFI)

Capex (Tangible)
Capex (Intangible)
Investments
Change in interst in JV

(12,446)
0
0

Cash Flow From Investing Activities

(12,446)

CFF

(CFF)

Redemption of Bonds
Increase/(Decrease) in Debt
Interest Paid
Shifting & Rehabilitation Fund

(110)
(4,191)
(295)
1,923

Net Cash Flow

Dividend Paid
Change in Misc Expenditures

(14,154)
0

Cash Flow From Financing Activities

(16,828)

Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash & Cash Equivalents

Cash & Cash Equivalents (Opening Balance)
Cash & Cash Equivalents (Closing Balance)

54,403
79,869
134,272

2007
Actual

2008
Actual

2009
Actual

2010
Actual

2011
Estimate

2012
Estimate

2013
Estimate

2014
Estimate

85,863
(17,526)
68,336

81,905
(9,311)
72,594

57,385
22,774
80,159

139,650
4,454
144,104

186,968
0
186,968

227,657
0
227,657

281,453
0
281,453

336,153
0
336,153

12,285
80,622

13,800
86,393

10,630
90,790

6,795
150,899

15,685
202,652

23,946
251,604

25,161
306,614

26,444
362,597

2,186
1,222
(2,232)
(15,403)
16,651
211
2,636

3,080
(708)
(2,869)
(20,744)
51,941
894
31,594

0
(1,903)
(2,826)
(14,228)
75,015
(1,748)
54,310

0
(3,425)
(7,189)
25,791
7,504
(390)
22,291

0
(4,100)
(5,962)
(4,134)
49,296
9,658
44,758

0
(4,988)
(5,504)
(14,185)
74,705
0
50,029

0
(6,329)
(7,662)
(17,765)
93,562
0
61,806

0
(7,301)
(9,301)
(19,844)
104,511
0
68,065

(23,325)
0

(29,297)
0

(27,907)
0

(39,990)
0

(63,569)
30

(77,403)
0

(95,694)
0

(114,292)
0

59,933

88,691

117,193

133,200

183,871

224,229

272,726

316,370

(15,342)
0
0

(18,350)
0
0

(18,746)
0
2,127

(19,977)
0
2,230

(90,789)
0
0
2

(34,991)
0
0

(36,821)
0
0

(38,022)
0
0

(15,342)

(18,350)

(16,619)

(17,747)

(90,787)

(34,991)

(36,821)

(38,022)

(140)
(1,611)
(965)
2,021

0
(2,600)
(44)
2,578

0
2,646
(1,610)
2,780

0
(616)
(1,445)
2,536

0
(3,440)
0
0

0
5,484
0
0

0
6,780
0
0

0
8,098
0
0

(18,875)
0

(19,953)
0

(17,054)
0

(22,100)
0

(33,318)
(15)

(40,569)
0

(50,155)
0

(59,903)
0

(19,570)

(20,018)

(13,239)

(21,625)

(36,773)

(35,084)

(43,375)

(51,805)

25,021
134,272
159,293

50,323
159,293
209,616

87,335
209,616
296,950

93,828
296,950
390,778

56,312
390,778
447,090

154,154
447,090
601,244

192,530
601,244
793,774

226,544
793,774
1,020,318

2015
Estimate

2016
Estimate

2017
Estimate

2018
Estimate

2019
Estimate

2020
Estimate

380,279
0
380,279

424,573
0
424,573

463,967
0
463,967

495,131
0
495,131

535,029
0
535,029

576,434
0
576,434

27,717
407,996

28,256
452,828

28,508
492,475

29,087
524,218

29,114
564,143

29,369
605,803

0
(7,862)
(11,271)
(20,464)
107,780
0
68,182

0
(4,824)
(11,173)
(20,271)
106,761
0
70,494

0
(4,161)
(11,040)
(19,302)
101,655
0
67,152

0
(3,249)
(10,477)
(17,395)
91,612
0
60,491

0
(2,458)
(7,917)
(15,727)
82,830
0
56,728

0
(2,416)
(8,436)
(16,619)
87,526
0
60,056

(129,295)
0

(144,355)
0

(157,749)
0

(168,344)
0

(181,910)
0

(195,987)
0

346,883

378,967

401,879

416,364

438,961

469,871

(32,609)
0
0

(30,553)
0
0

(33,770)
0
0

(29,335)
0
0

(31,432)
0
0

(33,648)
0
0

(32,609)

(30,553)

(33,770)

(29,335)

(31,432)

(33,648)

0
9,161
0
0

0
10,228
0
0

0
11,177
0
0

0
11,928
0
0

0
12,889
0
0

0
13,886
0
0

(67,766)
0

(75,659)
0

(82,679)
0

(88,232)
0

(95,342)
0

(102,721)
0

(58,605)

(65,431)

(71,502)

(76,305)

(82,453)

(88,834)

255,669
1,020,318
1,275,988

282,983
1,275,988
1,558,971

296,607
1,558,971
1,855,578

310,725
1,855,578
2,166,303

325,076
2,166,303
2,491,378

347,389
2,491,378
2,838,767

Back
Coal India Limited (Ratio Analysis)
Reported Currency-INR (in millions)
Particulars
Total Revenues
COGS
Gross Profit
Operating Cost
D&A
EBIT (Operating Profit)
EBITDA
Non-Operatiing Cost
Non-Operatiing Income
Tax
Net Profit
No. of Shares
EPS
Total Current Assets
Other Non- Current Assets
Total Intangible Assets
Investments
Cash
PP&E
Total Assets
Total Current Liabilities
Other Non- Current Liabilities
Total Debt (Current & Long-Term)
Total Shareholder's Equity
Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity
Capex (Tangible)
Capex (Intangible)
Interest Expense

2006
Actual

2007
Actual

2008
Actual

2009
Actual

2010
Actual

340,088
225,622
114,465
26,300
13,154
88,165
101,319
28,708
61,136
6,316
9.68

350,055
231,719
118,336
31,845
13,116
86,491
99,607
31,685
42,053
6,316
6.66

386,167
270,114
116,052
33,760
15,299
82,292
97,591
35,986
42,851
6,316
6.78

460,640
361,302
99,338
40,665
16,629
58,673
75,302
36,839
40,627
6,316
6.43

525,924
338,250
187,673
46,122
13,138
141,551
154,689
44,332
98,338
6,316
15.57

112,979
7,281

126,257
6,602
-

22,445
134,272
114,515
391,492
225,766

153,308
7,878
-

20,259
159,293
116,543
428,954
245,383
-

23,190
142,536
391,492

17,179
209,615
120,071
508,050
317,204

21,439
162,131
428,954

10,988

12,821
390,778
142,590
708,204
428,857

21,485
190,080
623,245

15,392
-

152,356
9,660

15,052
296,950
129,283
623,244
411,681

18,839
172,007
508,050

12,377
-

172,411
9,548

20,869
258,479
708,204

18,223
-

21,082
-

909

849

1,499

1,565

1,365

Return on Equity (ROE)

Net Profit Margin
Total Assets Turnover
Financial Leverage

42.9%
18.0%
2.05
1.16

25.9%
12.0%
1.91
1.13

24.9%
11.1%
2.02
1.11

21.4%
8.8%
2.18
1.11

38.0%
18.7%
1.88
1.08

Return on Capital Emplyed (ROCE)

Operating Profit Margin
Total Assets Turnover

53.2%
25.9%
2.05

47.1%
24.7%
1.91

43.1%
21.3%
2.02

27.7%
12.7%
2.18

50.7%
26.9%
1.88

0.16
97.0

0.13
101.9

0.11
54.9

0.11
37.5

0.08
103.7

Debt Ratios
Debt/Equity
Interest Coverage Ratio

2011
Estimate

2012
Estimate

2013
Estimate

2014
Estimate

2015
Estimate

2016
Estimate

2017
Estimate

2018
Estimate

605,257
364,829
240,429
52,000
15,685
188,428
204,113
63,569
123,399
6,316
19.54

699,821
405,008
294,813
65,936
23,946
228,877
252,824
77,403
150,254
6,316
23.79

818,254
460,941
357,313
74,256
25,161
283,057
308,218
95,694
185,759
6,316
29.41

950,546
528,838
421,709
83,477
26,444
338,232
364,676
114,292
221,861
6,316
35.12

1,086,976
611,116
475,860
92,936
27,717
382,924
410,642
129,295
250,984
6,316
39.74

1,222,117
692,675
529,442
101,583
28,256
427,859
456,115
144,355
280,218
6,316
44.36

1,350,794
773,268
577,526
109,556
28,508
467,970
496,478
157,749
306,218
6,316
48.48

1,466,758
849,750
617,008
117,093
29,087
499,916
529,003
168,344
326,786
6,316
51.74

166,552
0

191,228
0

222,984
0

259,430
0

299,027
0

335,295
0

369,798
0

400,918
0

12,821
447,090
217,693
844,157
478,153

12,821
601,244
228,738
1,034,032
552,859

17,429
348,575
844,157

12,821
793,774
240,398
1,269,978
646,421
-

22,913
458,260
1,034,032

90,789

12,821
1,020,318
251,976
1,544,546
750,932
29,693
593,864
1,269,978

34,991
-

12,821
1,275,988
256,868
1,844,705
858,711
37,791
755,823
1,544,546

36,821
-

12,821
1,558,971
259,166
2,166,253
965,473
46,952
939,041
1,844,705

38,022
-

12,821
1,855,578
264,427
2,502,624
1,067,127
57,180
1,143,600
2,166,253

32,609
-

12,821
2,166,303
264,675
2,844,718
1,158,739
68,357
1,367,140
2,502,624

30,553
-

80,285
1,605,694
2,844,718

33,770
-

29,335
-

1,461

1,220

1,604

2,079

2,645

3,287

4,003

4,785

35.4%
20.4%
1.65
1.05

32.8%
21.5%
1.45
1.05

31.3%
22.7%
1.31
1.05

29.4%
23.3%
1.20
1.05

26.7%
23.1%
1.10
1.05

24.5%
22.9%
1.02
1.05

22.4%
22.7%
0.94
1.05

20.4%
22.3%
0.87
1.05

51.5%
31.1%
1.65

47.6%
32.7%
1.45

45.4%
34.6%
1.31

42.6%
35.6%
1.20

38.8%
35.2%
1.10

35.6%
35.0%
1.02

32.6%
34.6%
0.94

29.7%
34.1%
0.87

0.05
129.0

0.05
187.6

0.05
176.5

0.05
162.7

0.05
144.8

0.05
130.2

0.05
116.9

0.05
104.5

2019
Estimate

2020
Estimate

1,571,606
907,547
664,059
123,411
29,114
540,649
569,763
181,910
353,119
6,316
55.91

1,682,399
969,130
713,269
130,313
29,369
582,956
612,325
195,987
380,446
6,316
60.23

427,021
0

454,491
0
-

12,821
2,491,378
266,993
3,198,213
1,241,569

12,821
2,838,767
271,272
3,577,352
1,329,096

93,174
1,863,471
3,198,213

107,060
2,141,196
3,577,352

31,432

33,648
-

5,620

6,522

18.9%
22.5%
0.80
1.05

17.8%
22.6%
0.75
1.05

27.6%
34.4%
0.80

25.9%
34.7%
0.75

0.05
-

0.05
-

Back
Coal India Limited (DCF Analysis)
Reported Currency-INR (in millions)
Particulars
Total Revenues
EBITDA
EBIT
Cash Tax on EBIT
NOPLAT
Depreciation
Change in Working Capital
CFO
Capex
% of Revenue
FCFF
WACC
Projection Year
Discount Factor
PV of Free Cash Flow
Assumptions
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk Free rate
Market Return
Beta

Intrinsic Value
Sum of PV of FCFF (Explicit Forecast)
WACC
Terminal Growth Rate
PV of Terminal Cash Flow
Enterprise Value (EV)
Less: Total Debt
Add: Cash & Cash Equivalent
Intrinsic Value (INR)
No. of Shares (mn)
Fair Value per Share
Current Price (06 Apr 2011)
Under/(Over) Valued

2006
Actual

2007
Actual

2008
Actual

2009
Actual

340,088
101,319
90,791
(30,869)
59,922

350,055
99,607
68,336
(23,234)
45,102

386,167
97,591
72,594
(24,682)
47,912

460,640
75,302
80,159
(27,254)
52,905

26,300
9,559
83,676

31,845
2,636
59,933

33,760
31,594
88,691

40,665
54,310
117,193

(12,446)
3.66%
71,231

(15,342)
4.38%
44,591

(18,350)
4.75%
70,341

(18,746)
4.07%
98,447

15.8%
7.8%
14.5%
1.2

1,315,673
15.3%
3%
875,155
2,190,828
17,795
390,778
2,563,811
6,316
406
366
10.8%

Cost of Debt (Kd)

Corporate Bond Premium
Marginal Cost of Debt
Nominal Tax Rate

Company
Peabody
Yanzhou
Arch Coal
Consol
Average

500,000

500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2006

2007

2008

2010
Actual

2011
Estimate

2012
Estimate

2013
Estimate

2014
Estimate

2015
Estimate

2016
Estimate

2017
Estimate

525,924
154,689
144,104
(48,995)
95,109

605,257
204,113
186,968
(63,569)
123,399

699,821
252,824
227,657
(77,403)
150,254

818,254
308,218
281,453
(95,694)
185,759

950,546
364,676
336,153
(114,292)
221,861

1,086,976
410,642
380,279
(129,295)
250,984

1,222,117
456,115
424,573
(144,355)
280,218

1,350,794
496,478
463,967
(157,749)
306,218

46,122
22,291
133,200

52,000
44,758
183,871

65,936
50,029
224,229

74,256
61,806
272,726

83,477
68,065
316,370

92,936
68,182
346,883

101,583
70,494
378,967

109,556
67,152
401,879

(19,977)
3.80%
113,223

(90,789)
15.00%
93,083
15.3%
1
0.87
80,738

(34,991)
5.00%
189,238
15.3%
2
0.75
142,374

(36,821)
4.50%
235,905
15.3%
3
0.65
153,947

(38,022)
4.00%
278,348
15.3%
4
0.57
157,555

(32,609)
3.00%
314,274
15.3%
5
0.49
154,299

(30,553)
2.50%
348,414
15.3%
6
0.43
148,376

(33,770)
2.50%
368,109
15.3%
7
0.37
135,973

8.5%
2.0%
10%
34%

emium
ebt

Beta
1.34
2.38
1.69
1.33

D/E
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.2

WACC
Growth Rate(Perpetual)
Indian Economy Growth
Terminal Multiple

U-Beta
1.0
1.7
1.1
0.8
1.1

Free Cash Flow (in INR)

D'/E'
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08

L-Beta
1.0
1.7
1.2
0.8
1.2

15.3%
3%
4%
9.5X

Free Cash Flow (in INR)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013
Years

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2018
Estimate

2019
Estimate

2020
Estimate

Second
Stage

1,466,758
529,003
495,131
(168,344)
326,786

1,571,606
569,763
535,029
(181,910)
353,119

1,682,399
612,325
576,434
(195,987)
380,446

1,989,342
724,040
593,727
(201,867)
391,860

117,093
60,491
416,364

123,411
56,728
438,961

130,313
60,056
469,871

130,313
60,056
483,967

(29,335)
2.00%
387,029
15.3%
8
0.32
124,003

(31,432)
2.00%
407,529
15.3%
9
0.28
113,255

(33,648)
2.00%
436,223
15.3%
10
0.24
105,153

(37,798)
1.90%
446,170

Weights
Total Debt (Current & Long Term)
Total Shareholder's Equity
We
0.9

Wd

875,155

20,869
258,479
0.1

875,155

Back

Strength
Largest coal producer and reserver holder in the world.
Well positioned to capitalize on the high demand for coal in India.
Track record of growth and cost efficient operations.
Strong capabilities for exploration, mine planning, R&D.
Strategic Agreements with NTPC, SAIL for acquisition of coal assets.
Mining is specific backward regions are supported by Indian Tax Laws.

Track record of growth and cost efficient operations.

Opportunity

SWOT Analysis

Increasing demand of electricity in India which eventually will lead to demand of

coal in India.
Emerging Technologies: India's numerous technology research institutes are
working on energy related R&D.
Upcoming Power Projects by joint venture with various of organization like NTPC,
SAIL.
Launch of E-procurement (Electronic method of doing business).
Strengthening of logistics in coal distribution : Privatization of ports, subsidy given
by Indian Railways will lead to efficient logistics .

Senstivity Analysis (WACC and Terminal Growth)

WACC
13.3%
14.3%
15.3%
16.3%
17.3%

PV of FCFF
1,448,211
1,379,686
1,315,673
1,255,815
1,199,784

PV of Terminal Cash Flow

2%
3%
4%
1,135,635 1,245,166 1,378,280
955,459 1,039,392 1,139,640
809,846
875,155
952,033
690,854
742,339
802,203
592,684
633,734
680,962

Senstivity Analysis (Beta-b and Terminal Growth)

Beta (b)
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4

PV of FCFF
1,395,699
1,354,847
1,315,673
1,278,096
1,242,036

PV of Terminal Cash Flow

2%
3%
4%
984,701 1,084,509 1,204,180
887,099
972,706 1,074,361
801,323
875,155
962,066
725,630
789,624
864,364
658,583
714,303
778,917

Senstivity (Price-RAW Coal and Terminal Growth)

CAGR
Raw Coal Price
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%

PV of Terminal Cash Flow

2%
3%
4%
542,279
592,288
651,157
666,081
727,474
799,743
809,846
875,155
952,033
949,003 1,036,418 1,139,319
1,110,173 1,212,414 1,332,768

PV of FCFF
1,078,147
1,193,540
1,315,673
1,444,947
1,581,781

Senstivity (Average Cost Per Employee and Terminal Growth)

CAGR
Employee Cost
7.4%
8.4%
9.4%
10.4%
11.4%

PV of Terminal Cash Flow

2%
3%
4%
930,555 1,016,256 1,117,140
868,594
948,603 1,042,787
801,323
875,155
962,066
728,296
795,422
874,441
649,003
708,853
779,305

PV of FCFF
1,420,843
1,369,639
1,315,673
1,258,796
1,198,846

Senstivity (Raw Material Cost and Terminal Growth)

% of Revenue
Raw Material Cost PV of FCFF
18.0%
1,382,765
19.0%
1,349,219
20.0%
1,315,673
21.0%
1,282,127
22.0%
1,248,581
550

PV of Terminal Cash Flow

2%
3%
4%
845,936
923,865 1,015,599
823,636
899,516
988,839
801,323
875,155
962,066
778,999
850,780
935,278
756,660
826,390
908,473

Fair Value vs WACC

500
Fair Value (INR)

2% (Growth)
3% (Growth)

450

4% (Growth)

400
350
300
13.3%

14.3%

15.3%
WACC

16.3%

17.3%

550

Fair Value vs Coal Price

Fair Value (INR)

500

450
2% (Growth)

400

3% (Growth)
4% (Growth)

350

300
4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Raw Coal Price (CAGR)

550

Fair Value vs Raw Material Cost

Fair Value (INR)

500

2% (Growth)
3% (Growth)

450

4% (Growth)

400

350

300
18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

21.0%

Raw Material Cost (% of Revenue)

22.0%

Weakness
Low Productivity: O/P per miner per annum in India varies from 150 to 2,650
tonnes compared to an average of around 12,000 tonnes in the US and Australia.
Lack of operational efficiency in mining companies of India. Mining costs is around
35% higher that of global lead exporter of the coal.
Higher rate of Illegal Mining activities in India.
Geographically concentration, not a globally diversified company.
Most of Indian mining companies do'nt have access to capital market.

SWOT Analysis

e NTPC,

dy given

Threat

Operational risk due to high risk prone nature of mining activities.

Deviations of coal prices from the anticipated prices.
Unpredictable Future for Coal companies due to constant threat of being taken
over by foreign companies.
Failure to Satisfy Contractual Obligations due to unpredictable nature of the mining
business.
Stricter environment regulation restricting mining activities.
A heavy tax burden discourages further investment in mining.

Fair Value per Share

2%
3%
468
485
429
442
396
406
367
375
343
349

4%
507
458
418
385
357

Sensitivity Index

Fair Value per Share

2%
3%
436
452
414
428
394
406
376
386
360
369

4%
471
444
420
398
379

Sensitivity Index

(8.21)

(0.51)

550

Fair Value per Share

2%
3%
316
324
353
363
396
406
438
452
485
501

4%
333
375
418
468
520

Sensitivity Index

Fair Value per Share

2%
3%
431
445
413
426
394
406
374
384
352
361

4%
461
441
420
397
372

Sensitivity Index

Fair Value per Share

2%
3%
412
424
403
415
394
406
385
397
377
388

4%
439
429
420
410
401

Sensitivity Index

10.93

(5.15)

(2.26)

Fair Value vs Beta(b)

Fair Value (INR)

500

2% (Growth)
3% (Growth)

450

4% (Growth)

400

350

300
1.00

1.10

1.20
Beta ( )

1.30

1.40

550

Fair Value vs Employee Cost

Fair Value (INR)

500

2% (Growth)
3% (Growth)

450

4% (Growth)

400

350

300
7.4%

8.4%

9.4%
Cost Per Employee(CAGR)

10.4%

11.4%