Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Headlines
(Global Economy) US GDP Q2 Growth Revised to 1% (Indian Economy) Food Inflation rises to 9.8% (WoW) (Economic Calendar) (Global and Domestic Stock Markets) (Derivative Analysis) Nifty September closed at 4747.90 (Technical Analysis) Nifty resistance at 4840-4900 and supports at 4650-4580. (Weekly Recommendations) DABUR AND BHARTIARTL (Sector & Company Highlights) (MF Industry update)
Headline Inflation by WPI (%) (July11) Annualize d Rate (curre nt) Headline Inflation (WPI) 9.22 Internals Primary Products Fue l Powe r and Lubricants Manufacture d Goods
Source: CCIL
INR Exchange Rate (As on August 26, 2011) Current 1 Week USD GBP Euro Ye n 46.05 75.20 66.48 59.73 45.61 75.32 66.53 59.84 Change Weekly 0.96% -0.16% -0.08% -0.18% 1 Year 46.64 72.42 59.88 54.55 Change annual -1.27% 3.84% 11.02% 9.50%
8.35 8.34
Economic Calendar
India Date 1-Se p 1-Se p 1-Se p 1-Se p 1-Se p 1-Se p Eve nt India August Markit Mfg PMI Exports YoY% Imports YoY% Food Articles WPI YoY Fue l Power Light WPI YoY Primary Article s WPI YoY JUL JUL 20-Aug 20-Aug 20-Aug 46.50% 42.50% 9.8% 13.1% 12.4% Pe riod 2Q Prior 7.80% 30-Aug Qtrly GDP YoY%
US Date Eve nt Pe riod JUL AUG AUG 26-Aug AUG JUL 27-Aug 20-Aug AUG AUG AUG AUG Prior 17.3% (2.0) 59.5 2.4% 58.8 -0.8% 417K 3641K 50.9 4.6% 12.2M 9.1% 29-Aug Pe nding Home Sale s YoY 29-Aug Dallas Fe d Manf. Activity 30-Aug Consume r Confide nce 30-Aug Minutes of FOMC Mee ting 31-Aug MBA Mortgage Applications 31-Aug Chicago Purchasing Manage r 31-Aug Factory Orders 1-Se p 1-Se p 1-Se p 1-Se p 2-Se p 2-Se p Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims ISM Manufacturing ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY Total Vehicle Sale s Unemployme nt Rate
Outlook
India has been one of the worst performing emerging markets in recent times. Rupee also depreciated indicating further pressure of FII flows. Policy paralysis from Government has not helped. Companies with leverage continue to be the worst affected. Consumer themes and agri themes were relatively resilient. Sensex estimate downgrades are coming thick and fast and the market will price in the slowdown and slower growth in earnings quickly. In the near term thus pressure on indices could continue though valuations have definitely become reasonable for a whole host of sectors.
Institutional Activity in INR Bn (Weekly) Institutions FII DIIs Ne t Inflow -34.4 17.9
Market Snapshot
Nifty September Futures closed at 4748.7 (Discount of 0.90 points over the Nifty spot) Open interest Nifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 September): 24.22 mn. Open interest BankNifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 September): 1.58 mn. India VIX for the week ended at 27.94, up 5.03 from previous weeks close (22.91). In the week VIX touched low of 24.93 and high of 33.26. Weekly Open Interest Analysis (Nifty Option)
OI
6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 -
45 0 0
46 0 0
4 70 0
4 80 0
49 0 0
5 00 0
5 10 0
5 20 0
53 0 0
5 40 0
5 50 0
Across all expiries, open interest is highest at the 5200, 5000, 5500 call options, while open interest in the put options is highest at 4600, 4700 & 4800 strike prices, suggesting 4600 - 5000 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short term.
Strike
Change in OI
2,000,000
Sector Wise OI Change: IT was the sole sector to show positive open interest change. Banking & Auto sectors were the worst performing in the negative territory.
1,000,000 0
4 800 4 900 5 000 5 300 5 400
OI-Change
(1,000,000)
5 500
460 0
470 0
510 0
520 0
4500
(5,000,000)
% Change - Price Cash Future 12.35 1.18 725.00 7.23 7.20 12.94 9.36 7.51 7.50 7.29
%Change - Volume % Change Cash Future in OI (23.83) 121.52 122.61 (16.50) (75.58) (42.82) (82.29) 24.32 9.68 (58.44) (31.25) (80.16) (19.08) (27.74) 2.19
Cement CapitalGoods IT
S e c tor s
% Change - Price Cash Future (11.08) (11.75) (11.16) (14.63) (24.57) (11.06) (11.50) (12.40) (14.72) (24.38)
%Change - Volume % Change Cash Future in OI 43.92 78.55 211.55 (46.77) (58.30) (6.33) 0.77 125.85 (54.64) (41.43) (11.76) (13.59) (23.51) (9.00) (21.41)
-7 5 0 %
-7 0 0 %
-6 5 0 %
-6 0 0 %
-4 5 0 %
-4 0 0 %
-3 5 0 %
-3 0 0 %
-2 5 0 %
-1 5 0 %
-1 0 0 %
-5 5 0 %
-5 0 0 %
% Change in OI
Nifty PC Ratio
1.1 1.05 1 0.95 0.9
PCR
-2 0 0 %
-5 0 %
DCHL
% Change in F&O Price Open Interest 8.25 (8.30) 2.92 (0.70) (2.37) (3.13) (0.68) (11.16) (1.21) (4.44) 6.91 (8.48) 3.01 1.21 (2.84) (3.21) (2.10) (12.40) (0.43) (4.89)
% Change Volumes (Delivery Based) 74.06 37.89 (2.71) 40.81 278.01 370.73 (88.08) 440.00 15.40 66.86
Date
(Source: Iris)
Conclusion
Last week Nifty shut on a negative note @ 4747 and down by 98 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to negative sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 4843.70 and made a high of 4965.80 and made a low of 4720 then finally closed negative at 4747.80. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signaling that selling pressure at resistance levels are possible short-term. The close below the weekly 200 moving average (4840) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to negative. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways to negative trend with trading range between 4650-4900. The next area of resistance is around at 4840-4900. So Nifty appears to be sideways to bearish trading on weekly chart having supports at 4650-4580 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4680 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 4840-4900 and supports at 4650-4580. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 16120-16340 and supports at 15555-15370. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9150-9384 and supports at 8740-8640.
Cement
Cement prices may recover post-monsoon, with construction activity expected to pick up, demand is likely to rise. Positive, as higher price realization would improve the profit margin of the company.
Fertilizers
Gusiute Holdings (UK), a wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Chemicals (TCH) has entered into an agreement with Canadian potash miner EPM Mining Ventures Inc to acquire 30% stake in the company for USD16 mn. This acquisition is a part of TCHs plan to secure its raw material supplies and enhance its global presence. Vertical integration would help TCH in posting better margins in future.
FMCG
Colgate-Palmolives board will consider issue of bonus shares at the appropriate time. Hindustan Unilever (HUL) and Future Group will co-develop and co-brand a line of bakery products that will be sold exclusively at Big Bazaar stores in the first instance of such a partnership in the country.
Information Technology
The Income Tax department has slapped a tax demand of INR 21.14 bn on Mahindra Satyam Ltd. after disallowing exemptions claimed by the company. In other news, the company has opened a new delivery center in the Netherlands.
10
10
12
-5
0
Equity
10
15
20
Weekly Activity
Date Mutual Fund Activity 25-Aug-11 24-Aug-11 23-Aug-11 22-Aug-11 FII Activity 26-Aug-11 25-Aug-11 24-Aug-11 23-Aug-11 22-Aug-11
Source: Accord Fintech
Equity (INR in Bn) Purchase 5.71 4.51 4.44 6.73 Sales 3.69 3.57 3.24 4.84 Net Purchase /Sales 2.03 0.94 1.20 1.88 Purchase 18.57 37.08 32.47 28.93
Debt (INR in Bn) Sales 11.30 27.28 32.95 22.50 Net Purchase /Sales 7.27 9.80 -0.48 6.43
11
Mr. Jinesh Gopani objective is to generate capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments.
DWS FTF-89(G)
18-Aug 30-Aug
Close ended
To generate income by investing in debt and money market instruments maturing on or before the date of the maturity of the S cheme. To seek income and minimise risk of c apital loss by investing in a portfolio
17-Aug 31-Aug
Close ended
securities. The scheme may invest a part of the assets in equity to seek capital appreciation. To seek to generate returns by investing in a portfolio of is fixed to income securities/ term debt capital
22-Aug 2-S ep
Close ended
instruments. The secondary objective of the S cheme generate investing long apprec iation by instruments. a portion of the
12
correspond to returns provided by S BI Gold Exchange Traded S cheme (S BI GETS ). To achieve growth of capital through investments
24-Aug 7-S ep
Close ended
made in a basket of fi xed income securities maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme.
13
Absolute Return (In %) 1 Week 1 Month -1.44 -1.35 -1.89 -1.09 -2.33 -1.23 -0.31 -0.40 -0.70 -1.59 -1.14 -1.11 -14.70 -11.28 -15.35 -11.06 -13.97 -10.41 -1.33 -1.79 -2.42 -9.22 -8.31 -8.56 1 Year -9.61 -10.45 -12.70 -7.86 -12.62 -7.82 3.74 2.72 2.79 -4.87 0.93 -4.93
CAGR (In %) Since Inception 28.68 20.05 22.70 22.79 21.33 29.63 9.55 10.67 11.44 18.56 16.58 15.95
(26 Aug 11) 92.56 31.52 42.12 191.06 181.31 90.04 26.70 21.70 22.96 199.23 53.75 77.52
BETA 0.67 0.80 0.69 0.78 0.88 0.78 0.10 0.31 0.18 0.23 0.21 0.36
ALPHA -0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.01 -0.03
Expense Ratio 1.82 1.84 1.91 1.83 1.78 1.84 2.09 1.54 1.52 1.80 2.11 2.34
(In %)
(26 Aug 11) 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year Since Inception 17.45 16.25 16.48 17.05 31.95 33.82 10.93 11.41 17.46 12.95 16.62 15.21 21.21 1432.16 2317.53 0.20 0.21 0.17 0.27 0.21 -0.03 0.20 0.26 0.31 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.75 0.77 0.65 0.92 1.02 1.71 0.77 0.86 0.96 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.69 0.69 8.24 7.72 6.66 7.89 5.26 4.14 8.82 7.48 8.84 8.10 8.33 8.40 8.00 8.29 7.63 7.00 6.03 6.97 8.03 9.24 10.77 8.58 7.06 7.26 6.45 7.27 6.56 6.85 6.68
YTM
Average Days
Modified Expense Ratio 0.14 0.80 0.60 0.79 2.12 1.24 0.65 1.35 0.59 0.65 0.57 0.25 0.41 0.20 0.65 Days 54.75 248.20 14.10 912.50 1230.05 1766.60 87.60 273.75 0.00 58.40 51.10 0.00 38.00 35.82 0.00
Maturity In Duration in 54.75 273.75 14.70 1003.75 1799.45 2660.85 94.90 386.90 631.45 62.05 51.10 80.70 43.00 38.34 51.30
9.00 0.00 0.00 9.75 9.22 0.00 9.84 0.00 9.07 9.60 9.40 0.00 0.00 8.84
8.00 10.20
14
Category Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid
Record Date 25-Aug-11 25-Aug-11 25-Aug-11 26-Aug-11 26-Aug-11 26-Aug-11 26-Aug-11 25-Aug-11 22-Aug-11 25-Aug-11 22-Aug-11
Gross 0.66 0.69 0.57 0.70 0.77 0.40 0.38 0.50 0.61 0.60 0.65
Corporate Non-Corporate 0.50 0.51 0.43 0.52 0.58 0.30 0.29 0.38 0.61 0.45 0.49 0.58 0.60 0.50 0.61 0.67 0.35 0.34 0.44 0.61 0.53 0.57
15
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd. (UNICON) for the information of its customers only. UNICON is governed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained in good faith from public sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced independently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectations contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only and is provided on an as is basis. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell or subscribe to any securities or other financial instruments. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. UNICON, its associate and group companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject UNICON or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of UNICON. This document is for the general information and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual customer, and it does not constitute a personalized recommendation of any particular security or investment strategy. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this document, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customers particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. UNICON, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk. UNICON, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and any information in it. UNICON, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Address: Wealth Management Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, VILCO Center, Opp Garware House, 8, Subhash Road, Vile Parle (East), Mumbai - 400057. Ph: 022-33901234 Email: wealthresearch@unicon.in Visit us at www.unicon.in
16