World Wheat Supply and

Demand Situation
September 2011

Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
released September 12, 2011. Projections will change over the course of the
year depending on weather and other developments.

Top Factors Affecting the Global Wheat Market in 2011/12

1. 2011/12 Production up, third largest wheat crop on record at 678 MMT

Global supplies estimate at record 871 MMT; 20.0 MMT greater than previous record in 2009/10

Black Sea production rebounds to107 MMT compared to 81.0 MMT in 2010/11

2. Consumption sets record for fourth consecutive year, up 3% from 2010/11

3. World wheat trade projected at 132 MMT, third largest on record
4. 2011 US plantings up 5% from 2010

US production falls, due to lower yields and area, to 56.5 MMT from 60.1 MMT in 2010/11

Dry conditions reduce HRW production by 22% to 21.6 MMT

Harvested area falls to 45.9 million acres, down 4% from last year and lowest since 2002/03

5. Cool weather delays spring wheat plantings, reduces North American production

Canadian production projected at 24.0 MMT, down 3% from five-year average

US spring wheat production down 17% from last year to 12.9 MMT

US durum production down 1.4 MMT, 47% lower than last year

6. EU production higher than previous estimate at 135.8 MMT, up 0.1% from 2010/11
7. World ending stocks at 195 MMT, up 1% from 2010/11 and 18% above five-year
average

Chinas ending stocks (64.1 MMT) account for 33% of total

World ending stocks excluding China down from 133 MMT to 130 MMT

8. Competition for acres intensifies; U.S. corn stocks at 15-year low

Global corn demand reaches record 867 MMT

Production, Consumption and Trade 2011/12

Global production at 678 MMT, 3rd largest on record

Estimates up 5% (29.9 MMT) from 2010/11 and 5% (33.4 MMT) greater than 5-year average

Black Sea production rebounds to 107 MMT, up from 81.0 in 2010/11

Indian production reaches record 85.9 MMT, up 6% from 2010/11

Consumption to set record: up 3%

Trade expected to increase by 2%

Consumption rises 22.2 MMT to record 677 MMT

World trade projected at 132 MMT, third largest amount on record

Import projections

EU up 67% to 7.5 MMT

Middle East up 3% to 18.1 MMT

Export forecasts

Black Sea exports rebound, reaching 33.2 MMT, up from 14.4 MMT in 2010/11

Russian exports reach 16.0 MMT, up from 4.0 MMT in 2010/11 and above 5-year average of 12.8 MMT

US exports down 21%, from 35.1 MMT in 2010/11 to 27.9 MMT

EU exports fall 29%, from 22.5 MMT in 2010/11 to 16.0 MMT

World feed use estimates up 13% from 2010/11 to 130.1 MMT

Stocks and Price 2011/12

World beginning stocks fall, but second highest in
past 5 years
Beginning stocks down 3% (6.5 MMT) from 2010/11
US beginning stocks at 23.4 MMT, 45% above 5-year average of 16.1 MMT

Global ending stocks rise 1.3 MMT to 195 MMT

China ending stocks are 64.1 MMT, accounting for 33% of global ending
stocks
World stocks excluding China fall from 133 MMT to 130 MMT

U.S. farm gate prices forecasted at record

$7.35 to $8.35 /bushel ($270-$307/MT)*
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average

World Production and Use

700
677

680
655

660
640

678

600
580
648

MMT

620

560
540
520
500
02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

Production

07/08
Use

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*

450
400

424
406
378

370

350

416

355

300
250
200

318

299

60

72

359

328

349

65

78

67

308

150
100
50

47

0
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Beginning Stocks

Production

*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan

11/12

World Wheat Supply and Demand

09/10
SUPPLY:

Beginning Stocks
Production
Supply Total

168
684
852

10/11
MMT
200
648
848

11/12

TRADE:

Exports/Imports

136

130

132

DEMAND

Food & Seed

Feed & Residual
Use Total

535
117
652

540
115
655

547
130
677

ENDING STOCKS:

200

193

195

193
678
871

World Beginning Stocks

250

200

150

117

MMT

132

121

97

100
82
18

23

50
55

14
31

27

24

48 56 48

0
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10
Historical Five Major Exporters

Black Sea

Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

Others

11/12

Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio

40
35

35

31
30

30

29

25
21
20
15
10
5
0
97/98
*Ending stocks

99/00

01/02

03/04

05/06

07/08

09/10

11/12

World Ending Stocks

250

200

192

195

60.1

64.1

61.3

60.6

24.0

25.1

47.9

44.9

MMT

150

100

50

0
01/02

03/04

05/06

Historical 5 Majors

07/08
Black Sea

Other

09/10
China

Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

11/12

Global Ending Stocks and Price

250

400
327

200

350
300
250

MMT

150
99

125 200

108
71

100

150

82
32
24

50

25 100

20
14
52

42

42

31

45

50
0

0
83/84

87/88

91/92

Historical 5 Majors

95/96
Black Sea

99/00

03/04

Rest of World

07/08

11/12

HRW price

World and U.S. Wheat

Supply and Demand

Major Exporters
Import Demand
U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook

Canada Situation
40.0
35.0
30.0
23.2

25.0
MMT

24.0
20.0
16.5
17.0

15.0
10.0
5.0

7.8

7.2

10/11

11/12

0.0
02/03

03/04

Beginning stocks

04/05

05/06

Production

06/07

07/08

Imports

08/09

09/10

Exports

Domestic use

Canada Ending Stocks

12.0

10.0
9.7
8.0

MMT

7.8
7.2
6.0

6.5
5.9
4.4

4.0

2.0

0.0
02/03

05/06

08/09

11/12

Australia Situation
35.0

30.0

25.0
26.0
20.0

25.0

MMT

21.9
17.0
17.5

15.0

10.0

5.0
3.6

4.1

4.2

09/10

10/11

11/12

0.0
02/03

03/04

Beginning stocks

04/05

05/06

Production

06/07

07/08

Imports

08/09
Exports

Domestic use

Australia Ending Stocks

10.0
9.4
8.0

MMT

6.0
5.4
4.0
4.1

4.0

4.2

4.3

3.6
2.0

0.0
02/03

05/06

08/09

11/12

Argentina Situation
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0

MMT

12.0
15.0

13.5

11.0

9.0

7.5

1.3

1.4

1.5

09/10

10/11

11/12

10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
02/03

03/04

Beginning stocks

04/05

05/06

Production

06/07

07/08

Imports

08/09
Exports

Domestic use

Argentina Ending Stocks

3.0

2.5
2.4

MMT

2.0

1.5

1.6
1.3

1.4

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.6
0.4

0.0
02/03

05/06

08/09

11/12

EU-27 Situation
180
160
140
120
MMT

138.8
135.6

100

135.8

80
60
40
22.6
20
18.9

16.2

11.7

09/10

10/11

11/12

0
02/03

03/04

Beginning stocks

04/05

05/06
Production

06/07

07/08

Imports

08/09
Exports

16.0

Domestic use

EU-27 Ending Stocks

30
27.5
25
23.4

MMT

20

15

16.2
14.2
12.5

10

11.7

0
02/03

05/06

08/09

11/12

Black Sea Region Situation

160
140
120
113.9
100
MMT

107.5
81.0

80
60
40

33.2

22.7

14.6
27.3

24.0

09/10

10/11

11/12

20
0
02/03

03/04

Beginning stocks

04/05

05/06
Production

06/07

07/08

Imports

08/09
Exports

The Black Sea Region includes the Former Soviet Union, excluding the Baltic States
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea
Region

Domestic use

Black Sea Exports

40
35
7.9
30

7.5

25
MMT

9.3
9.0

20
15
5.5

10

18.6

16.0
4.3

4.0
0
03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

Russia

07/08

Ukraine

08/09

Kazakhstan

09/10

10/11

11/12

Black Sea Ending Stocks

30
27.3
25
25.1
24.0

MMT

20

17.3

15

14.4
13.0
10

0
02/03

05/06

08/09

11/12

U.S. Situation
100
90
80
60.1

70

MMT

60

56.5
60.4

50
63.8
40

35.1

30
20

23.9

10

17.9

13.4

27.9
26.6 23.4

0
93/94

96/97

Beginning stocks

99/00
Production

02/03

05/06

Imports

Exports

08/09
Domestic Use

11/12

U.S. Ending Stocks

30

25

26.6
23.4

MMT

20
17.9

20.7

15
13.4

14.7
12.4

10

0
02/03

05/06

08/09

11/12

World and U.S. Wheat

Supply and Demand
Major Exporters

Import Demand
U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook

Major World Wheat Importers

(from all origins)
11
10
9
8

MMT

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Egypt

EU-27

Brazil

Indonesia

Japan
10/11

Algeria
11/12

S. Korea

Nigeria

Iraq

Mexico

Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat

5-year average
3.5
3.0

MMT

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat

2010/11 vs. 2011/12
(year-to-date)
1.6
1.4
1.2
MMT

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

2010/11

Source: USDA FAS export sales report September 12, 2011

2011/12

Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat

2009/10 vs. 2010/11
4.5
4.0
3.5

MMT

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

2009/10
Source: USDA FAS export sales report June 9, 2011

2010/11

World Wheat Imports

160
140
120

MMT

100
80
60
40
20
0
83/84

87/88

91/92
"Other"

Trend in other importers denoted (

95/96
China

99/00
FSU

EU-27

03/04

07/08

11/12

World and U.S. Wheat

Supply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand

U.S. Situation by Class

Outlook

U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class

70
60

53.6
2.6
4.2
5.3

Million Acres

50

56.4
1.7
4.4
8.3

40
13.0

12.9

28.6

29.1

30
20
10
0
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
HRW

HRS

SRW

*Source: USDA Acreage Report, June 30, 2011

White

Durum

U.S. Hard Red Winter

40
35
30
28

22

MMT

25
20
17
15
12

10
5

10

11

10/11

11/12

0
06/07

07/08
Beginning stocks

08/09
Production

09/10
Imports

Exports

U.S. Hard Red Spring

25

20
16
13

MMT

15

10
9

5
6

0
06/07

07/08
Beginning stocks

08/09
Production

09/10
Imports

10/11
Exports

11/12

U.S. Soft Red Winter

20

15

MMT

6
12
10

5
3

10/11

11/12

0
06/07

07/08
Beginning stocks

08/09
Production

09/10
Imports

Exports

U.S. White
12

10

8
MMT

7
6
5
5

2
2

10/11

11/12

0
06/07

07/08
Beginning stocks

08/09
Production

09/10
Imports

Exports

U.S. Durum
5
0.9
4

1.1

MMT

2.9

1.6
1.2

1
0.9

0.5
1.0

10/11

11/12

0
06/07

07/08
Beginning stocks

08/09
Production

09/10
Imports

Exports

U.S. Wheat Sales by Class

(year-to-date)
4.8
4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
MMT

2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
HRW

HRS

White
2011/12

2010/11

Source: USDA FAS export sales report September 9, 2011

SRW

Durum

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class

12

10

MMT

0
HRW

HRS
06/07

07/08

SRW
08/09

SWW
09/10

10/11

Durum
11/12

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

HRW
10/11 11/12
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply Total

10.5
27.7
0.0
38.2

10.5
21.6
0.0
32.1

HRS
10/11 11/12
MMT
6.4
5.0
15.5
12.9
0.8
1.0
22.6
18.9

Domestic Use
Exports
Use Total
Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use

11.0
16.8
27.7
10.5
38%

12.8
12.0
24.7
7.4
30%

8.4
9.2
17.6
5.0
29%

7.5
7.1
14.6
4.3
29%

SRW
10/11 11/12
6.6
6.5
0.8
13.8

4.6
12.3
0.7
17.6

6.2
3.0
9.2
4.6
50%

8.8
3.4
12.2
5.4
44%

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

White
10/11 11/12

Durum
10/11 11/12

Total
10/11 11/12

Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply Total

2.2
7.5
0.2
9.9

2.3
8.1
0.2
10.7

1.0
2.9
0.9
4.8

1.0
1.6
1.1
3.6

26.6
60.1
2.6
89.3

23.4
56.5
3.0
82.9

Domestic Use
Exports
Use Total
Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use

2.6
5.0
7.5
2.3
31%

2.9
4.9
7.8
2.9
37%

2.6
1.2
3.8
1.0
25%

2.3
0.5
2.9
0.8
27%

30.8
35.1
65.9
23.4
36%

34.3
27.9
62.2
20.7
33%

U.S. FOB Gulf Prices

700

600

$/Metric Ton

500

400

300

200

100
Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09
HRW ords

Jan-10

May-10

HRS 14%

Sep-10
SRW

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

U.S. FOB PNW Prices

600
550
500

$/Metric Ton

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

HRW 11.5%

Jan-10

May-10

HRS 14%

Sep-10

SW

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

SRW and Soft White Prices

400

350

$/Metric Ton

300

250

200

150

100
Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

SW

SRW

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

U.S. Gulf Basis Prices

250

200

$/Metric Ton

150

100

50

-50
Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09
HRS 13.5

HRW 12

Sep-10
SRW

Sep-11

U.S. PNW Basis Prices

250

$/Metric Ton

200

150

100

50

0
Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09
HRS 14

HRW 12

Sep-10

Sep-11

World and U.S. Wheat

Supply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand
U.S. Situation by Class

Outlook

U.S. Wheat Area and Production

3.4

3.2

65

3.0
55
2.8
45
2.6
35
2.4
25

2.2

15

2.0
92/93

95/96

98/99

01/02

Harvested Area

04/05
Production

07/08
Yield

10/11

MT/hectares

Production (MMT) and Harvested Area (mh)

75

U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison

40.0
37.9

38.0

37.4
35.7

36.0

35.2

Million Hectares

34.0
32.0
30.0

31.9

31.2

30.4

31.4
30.0

28.0
26.2

26.0
24.0

24.5
23.9

23.4

22.8

22.0
21.7
20.0
90/91

93/94

96/97
Wheat

99/00
Corn

02/03

05/06

Soybeans

*Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 31, 2011

08/09

11/12*

World Wheat
Production, Use and Trade
150

700
678677
655
648

Production and Use (MMT)

660

145
140

640

135

620

130

600

125

580

120

560

115

540

110

520

105

500

100
02/03

05/06
Production

08/09
Use

Trade

11/12

Trade (MMT)

680

World Corn
Production, Use and Trade
120

1000
900

862
824 844 855

700

100

80

600
60

500
400

40

300
200

20

100
0

0
02/03

05/06
Production

08/09
Use

Trade

11/12

Trade (MMT)

Production and Use (MMT)

800

World Soybeans
Production, Use and Trade
120

250

98

93

80

262

259

150

253

77

60

100

40

50

20

0
02/03

05/06
Production

08/09
Use

Trade

11/12

Trade (MMT)

200

100

91

264

Production and Use (MMT)

300

PNW to Japan
Gulf to Middle East
Great Lakes to East Med
Gulf to West Africa

7/10/11

6/10/11

5/10/11

4/10/11

3/10/11

2/10/11

1/10/11

12/10/10

11/10/10

10/10/10

9/10/10

8/10/10

7/10/10

6/10/10

5/10/10

4/10/10

3/10/10

2/10/10

1/10/10

12/10/09

11/10/09

10/10/09

9/10/09

8/10/09

7/10/09

$/metric ton

Ocean Freight Rates for Grains

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Summary
Global production climbs 5%
Production reaches 678 MMT; third largest on record

Global ending stocks increase 1.3 MMT in

2011/12
September ending stock estimates are 5.7 MMT greater than August at
194.6 MMT
China ending stocks account for 33% of world total

World exporters

Black Sea production rebounds from 2010/11

World trade increases with growing demand