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TRABAJO
MLP - LOGIT
Se estudia la respuesta cualitativa, considerando una
respuesta binaria.
Se har a continuacin por el modelo MLP y luego se
continuara por el LOGIT.
Se tiene la siguiente data:
OB
S
1
X1
X2
X3
X
5
1
OB
S
54
X1
SMP
X
4
56
18
X
2
0
30
13.2
SMP
25
55
6.6
12
SMP
21
56
6.6
26.4
SMP
40
57
72
SMP
47
58
21.6
SMP
27
59
7
8
9
10
0
0
0
0
54
3.6
9.6
9
0
1
1
0
SMP
S.M.P
SMP
Callao
46
22
40
49
1
0
1
0
60
61
62
63
0
1
1
1
11
12
0
1
12
21.6
0
0
Callao
Callao
31
22
0
1
64
65
0
0
13
14
1
0
42
15.6
0
1
Callao
Callao
26
27
1
0
66
67
1
1
15
9.6
Callao
48
68
16
17
0
0
16.8
18
0
0
Callao
Callao
24
26
0
0
69
70
1
0
13.
2
10.
8
15.
6
18
18
60
22.
8
6
15.
6
18
10.
8
10.
8
12
14.
4
ECONOMETRIA II
X3
X
4
independenci 60
a
INDEPENDEN 22
CIA
INDEPENDEN 21
CIA
Independenc 20
ia
Los Olivos
55
X5
0
0
1
1
0
Los Olivos
23
0
0
1
1
Los Olivos
Los Olivos
Los Olivos
olivos
25
49
53
38
0
1
0
1
1
1
RIMAC
Rmac
24
29
1
0
1
1
Rmac
Rmac
50
50
1
0
Rmac
43
0
1
SJL
sjl
53
26
1
0
Pgina 1
1
0
0
18
6.6
6
0
1
0
Callao
Callao
VMT
53
22
33
1
1
0
71
72
73
0
0
1
1
1
1
S.J.L
S.J.L
san miguel
22
21
35
1
1
0
san miguel
29
1
1
San Miguel
San miguel
36
19
0
1
1
0
SJM
SJM
29
28
1
0
1
1
SJM
SJM
27
33
1
0
SJM
30
8.4
7.2
14.
4
14.
4
48
3.3
6
30
21.
6
24
26.
4
31.
2
24
21
33.6
VMT
35
74
22
23
1
0
33.6
18
1
0
VMT
VMT
30
30
0
0
75
76
1
0
24
25
1
0
12
8.4
0
0
VMT
VMT
65
27
0
0
77
78
0
0
26
27
0
1
24
24
1
0
VMT
VMT
25
55
0
0
79
80
0
0
28
19.2
28
81
29
30
35
82
30
26.4
29
31
24
33
32
18
33
37.2
villa el
salvador
villa el
salvador
villa el
salvador
villa el
salvador
Villa El
Salvador
Surco
SJM
31
83
30
SJM
25
84
30
SJM
31
30
85
8.4
SURQUILLO
24
46
86
SURQUILLO
22
Surco
Surco
30
49
1
1
87
88
0
0
4.5
6
4.8
24
34
35
1
1
42
38.4
1
1
1
1
29
28
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
Surco
Surco
surco
SURCO
Surco
COMAS
Comas
Comas
32
36
26
26
35
23
47
60
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
25
32
26
42
59
45
28
26
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
15
Comas
32
97
15.6
8.4
1
0
Comas
comas
23
26
0
1
98
99
0
0
1
1
puente
piedra
ATE
Lince
57
0
0
24
33
1
0
18
comas
26
10
0
12
12
60
42
33
18
30
14.
4
13.
2
8.4
14.
4
24
SURQUILLO
Cercado de
Lima
cercado
cercado
san borja
San Borja
San Isidro
Chorrillos
brea
santa anita
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
31.2
36
18
6.6
60
8.4
8.4
36
44
45
46
47
Carabayllo
24
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 2
3.6
COMAS
21
49
12
Comas
27
50
18
comas
41
51
13.2
25
52
15.6
36
53
24
independen
cia
independen
cia
independen
cia
61
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
5
10
6
18
Ventanilla
21
9.6
Ventanilla
60
48
San Luis
31
24
La Molina
36
12
La Victoria
27
7.2
BARRANCO
24
encuestado
X5.- Variable dictoma que indica sexo del encuestado (0
si es mujer, 1 si es varn)
En el caso de los distritos los agrupamos convenientemente,
con el fin de trabajarlo como variables polictomas, donde 1.
Hace referencia a distritos de recursos bajos, 3 distritos
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 3
1.
MODELO
B=2
SMP
Rmac
Callao
brea
Lince
La Victoria
San Luis
Chorrillos
SURQUILLO
Los Olivos
Cercado de
Lima
C=1
VMT
villa el
salvador
SJM
puente piedra
santa Anita
independencia
COMAS
Ventanilla
ATE
SJL
DE PROBABILIDAD LINEAL
(MLP)
Podemos
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 4
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 5
Pasamos a regresionar
regress y x1 x2 x3 x4 x5
Source |
SS
df
MS
-------------+-----------------------------Model | 10.8525905
5 2.17051811
Residual | 14.2889189
100 .142889189
-------------+-----------------------------Total | 25.1415094
105 .239442947
Number of obs
F( 5,
100)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
106
15.19
0.0000
0.4317
0.4032
.37801
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------y |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------x1 |
.008413
.0029112
2.89
0.005
.0026372
.0141888
x2 |
-.003555
.0790593
-0.04
0.964
-.1604065
.1532964
x3 |
.0338478
.0535172
0.63
0.529
-.0723288
.1400244
x4 |
.0207862
.0033394
6.22
0.000
.0141609
.0274114
x5 |
.2118182
.0748077
2.83
0.006
.0634018
.3602347
_cons | -.6612984
.151539
-4.36
0.000
-.9619475
-.3606493
Y = -0.6612984+0.008413*x1 - 0.003555*x2 +
0.0338478*x3 + 0.0207862*x4 + 0.2118182*x5
Con esta ecuacin de regresin podremos hallar l y estimado
adems de w (producto de la probabilidad de ocurrencia y la
probabilidad de no ocurrencia)
En el MLP existe el problema de la heterocedasticidad por tanto w
no nos permite obtener un modelo homocedstico. Tendremos que
mejorar el modelo para lo cual utilizaremos a calcular por los
mnimos cuadrados ponderados.
Encontramos l y estimado (y) y el w
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 6
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 7
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
30
13
12
26
72
22
54
4
10
9
12
22
42
16
10
17
18
18
7
6
34
34
18
12
8
24
24
19
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
56
25
21
40
47
27
46
22
40
49
31
22
26
27
48
24
26
53
22
33
35
30
30
65
27
25
55
28
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
ECONOMETRIA II
y
estima
do
1.0311
0.0335
-0.0597
0.6718
1.2009
0.3612
1.0287
-0.1096
0.5269
0.5006
0.1517
0.2572
0.5120
0.0953
0.4849
0.0466
0.0983
0.8713
0.1275
0.1090
0.5910
0.2753
0.1476
0.8246
0.0044
0.0906
0.7177
0.3279
obs
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
18
7
7
13
11
16
18
18
60
23
6
16
18
11
11
12
14
8
7
14
14
48
3
30
22
24
26
31
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
60
22
21
20
55
23
25
49
53
38
24
29
50
50
43
53
26
22
21
35
29
36
19
29
28
27
33
30
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
Pgina 8
y
estima
do
0.7712
-0.1182
0.0728
0.1111
0.6405
0.0122
0.0775
0.7882
1.0093
0.5964
0.1640
0.1369
0.8054
0.5330
0.3911
0.7870
0.0306
0.1088
0.0779
0.2854
0.3760
0.5888
0.0717
0.4360
0.1363
0.3440
0.2770
0.4669
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
30
26
24
18
37
42
38
31
36
18
7
60
8
8
36
15
16
8
18
4
12
18
13
16
24
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
35
29
33
30
46
30
49
32
36
26
26
35
23
47
60
32
23
26
26
21
27
41
25
36
61
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0.5607
0.4057
0.4687
0.1476
0.9176
0.6254
0.9901
0.3643
0.6997
0.1286
0.2445
0.8808
0.1296
0.4166
0.9226
0.3757
-0.0217
0.1955
0.0644
-0.1642
0.0347
0.5880
0.0033
0.4639
1.0542
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
24
30
30
8
5
5
24
12
12
60
42
33
18
30
14
13
8
14
24
18
10
48
24
12
7
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
3
2
3
31
25
31
24
22
29
28
25
32
26
42
59
45
28
26
57
24
33
24
21
60
31
36
27
24
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2153
0.3529
0.2658
0.1842
0.1103
0.2578
0.3986
0.2353
0.3843
0.6937
0.6631
1.1525
0.7050
0.4491
0.2460
0.8767
0.1504
0.2099
0.2816
-0.0395
0.6969
0.4510
0.3905
0.0686
0.2080
Pgina 9
X
1
1
3
2
6
2
2
1
0
9
X
2
1
X
3
2
1
2
2
2
4
2
1
6
1
0
1
7
1
8
1
8
7
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
X
4
2
5
4
0
2
7
4
0
4
9
3
1
2
2
2
6
2
7
4
8
2
4
2
6
5
3
2
2
3
3
3
ECONOMETRIA II
X
5
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
yest
w1/2
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
0.0335
49
0.6717
67
0.3611
64
0.5268
73
0.5006
38
0.1517
25
0.2572
33
0.5120
03
0.0953
12
0.4849
00
0.0466
04
0.0982
72
0.8713
18
0.1274
83
0.1089
72
0.5910
0.0324
23
0.2204
96
0.2307
24
0.2492
78
0.2500
00
0.1287
05
0.1910
64
0.2498
56
0.0862
28
0.2497
72
0.0444
32
0.0886
15
0.1121
23
0.1112
31
0.0970
97
0.2417
0.1800
65
0.4695
70
0.4803
38
0.4992
77
0.5000
00
0.3587
55
0.4371
09
0.4998
56
0.2936
46
0.4997
72
0.2107
90
0.2976
83
0.3348
48
0.3335
13
0.3116
04
0.4916
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.08186
8
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.28776
1
2.00057
6
0.00000
0
2.00091
3
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.98643
3
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.03397
5.55356
1
2.12960
7
2.08186
8
2.00289
5
2.00000
2
2.78742
1
2.28776
1
2.00057
6
3.40546
2
2.00091
3
4.74405
8
3.35928
3
2.98643
3
2.99838
6
3.20920
1
2.03397
73.30700
4
56.22161
8
44.96834
8
19.22779
2
18.00001
5
33.44905
6
49.41562
9
84.02421
3
53.12520
0
19.20876
2
79.70017
0
60.46708
6
53.75579
2
19.78934
6
19.25520
4
68.34156
5.55356
1
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.00289
5
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
3.40546
2
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.99838
6
0.00000
0
2.03397
11.1071
22
4.25921
3
4.16373
6
4.00579
0
4.00000
3
5.57484
3
4.57552
1
4.00115
3
6.81092
3
4.00182
5
9.48811
6
6.71856
5
5.97286
6
5.99677
1
3.20920
1
2.03397
138.8390
23
85.18426
9
56.21043
6
80.11579
8
98.00008
0
86.41006
2
50.33073
4
52.01498
9
91.94746
1
96.04381
0
113.8573
86
87.34134
7
158.2809
42
65.96448
5
105.9036
19
71.18913
0.00000
0
2.12960
7
2.08186
8
2.00289
5
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.28776
1
2.00057
6
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.98643
3
2.99838
6
0.00000
0
2.03397
Pgina 10
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
4
3
4
1
8
1
2
8
2
4
2
4
1
9
3
0
2
6
2
4
1
8
3
7
4
2
3
8
3
1
3
6
5
3
0
3
0
6
5
2
7
2
5
5
5
2
8
3
5
2
9
3
3
3
0
4
6
3
0
4
9
3
2
3
6
ECONOMETRIA II
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
06
0.2752
57
0.1475
69
0.8246
08
0.0044
46
0.0905
61
0.7177
02
0.3279
11
0.5607
20
0.4057
16
0.4686
69
0.1475
69
0.9176
37
0.6254
40
0.9900
91
0.3643
34
0.6996
79
18
0.1994
91
0.1257
93
0.1446
29
0.0044
26
0.0823
60
0.2026
06
0.2203
85
0.2463
13
0.2411
10
0.2490
18
0.1257
93
0.0755
79
0.2342
65
0.0098
11
0.2315
95
0.2101
28
48
0.4466
44
0.3546
73
0.3803
02
0.0665
30
0.2869
84
0.4501
17
0.4694
52
0.4962
99
0.4910
30
0.4990
17
0.3546
73
0.2749
17
0.4840
09
0.0990
49
0.4812
43
0.4583
97
5
2.23892
1
0.00000
0
2.62949
1
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.22164
3
0.00000
0
2.01491
3
2.03653
5
2.00393
8
0.00000
0
3.63746
2
2.06607
7
10.0960
59
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
5
2.23892
1
2.81950
1
2.62949
1
15.0308
26
3.48451
0
2.22164
3
2.13014
3
2.01491
3
2.03653
5
2.00393
8
2.81950
1
3.63746
2
2.06607
7
10.0960
59
2.07795
3
2.18151
3
7
75.22773
4
50.75102
7
31.55389
5
126.2589
42
83.62824
6
53.31942
4
40.89873
8
60.44737
9
53.76453
7
48.09451
4
50.75102
7
135.3135
86
86.77523
8
387.6886
55
64.83212
4
78.53448
4
Pgina 11
5
2.23892
1
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
3.48451
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.01491
3
2.03653
5
2.00393
8
0.00000
0
3.63746
2
2.06607
7
10.0960
59
2.07795
3
2.18151
3
5
2.23892
1
2.81950
1
2.62949
1
15.0308
26
3.48451
0
2.22164
3
2.13014
3
2.01491
3
2.03653
5
2.00393
8
2.81950
1
10.9123
86
6.19823
1
30.2881
76
6.23385
8
6.54454
0
2
67.16761
9
84.58504
5
170.9169
30
405.8323
14
87.11275
6
122.1903
47
59.64399
3
70.52194
2
59.05952
9
66.12995
7
84.58504
5
167.3232
51
61.98231
3
494.7068
78
66.49448
6
78.53448
4
5
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.13014
3
2.01491
3
2.03653
5
2.00393
8
0.00000
0
3.63746
2
2.06607
7
10.0960
59
0.00000
0
2.18151
3
1
8
7
34
35
6
0
8
36
37
38
39
40
3
6
1
5
8
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
1
8
1
2
1
8
1
3
1
6
1
8
7
48
49
1
3
1
2
6
2
6
3
5
2
3
4
7
6
0
3
2
2
6
2
6
2
7
4
1
2
5
3
6
6
0
2
1
2
0
5
ECONOMETRIA II
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0.1285
65
0.2444
75
0.8808
05
0.1295
64
0.4166
15
0.9225
89
0.3757
21
0.1954
78
0.0644
25
0.0347
33
0.5880
36
0.0032
56
0.4639
14
0.7711
55
0.0728
49
0.1111
43
0.6404
0.1120
36
0.1847
07
0.1049
87
0.1127
77
0.2430
47
0.0714
18
0.2345
55
0.1572
66
0.0602
74
0.0335
26
0.2422
50
0.0032
45
0.2486
98
0.1764
75
0.0675
42
0.0987
90
0.2302
0.3347
18
0.4297
76
0.3240
18
0.3358
24
0.4929
98
0.2672
42
0.4843
09
0.3965
68
0.2455
08
0.1831
02
0.4921
89
0.0569
68
0.4986
96
0.4200
89
0.2598
88
0.3143
09
0.4798
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
3.08625
2
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
4.07319
1
0.00000
0
2.03174
1
0.00000
0
2.00522
9
2.38044
8
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.08396
2.98758
9
2.32679
6
3.08625
2
2.97775
4
2.02840
6
3.74192
9
2.06480
0
2.52163
4
4.07319
1
5.46142
9
2.03174
1
17.5535
91
2.00522
9
2.38044
8
3.84781
4
3.18157
9
2.08396
53.77660
0
15.35685
1
185.1751
31
25.01313
5
17.03861
2
134.7094
47
30.97199
4
21.18172
8
73.31743
2
65.53715
3
36.57134
1
231.7074
08
31.28157
8
42.84806
5
25.39557
2
41.99683
7
22.50683
Pgina 12
2.98758
9
2.32679
6
3.08625
2
2.97775
4
2.02840
6
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
3.84781
4
0.00000
0
0.00000
8.96276
7
6.98038
7
9.25875
7
2.97775
4
2.02840
6
3.74192
9
2.06480
0
2.52163
4
4.07319
1
5.46142
9
2.03174
1
17.5535
91
2.00522
9
2.38044
8
3.84781
4
3.18157
9
4.16793
77.67731
1
60.49668
5
108.0188
26
68.48834
5
95.33508
9
224.5157
45
66.07358
6
65.56249
0
105.9029
57
147.4585
95
83.30138
7
438.8397
87
72.18825
7
142.8268
85
80.80409
3
63.63157
1
114.6181
0.00000
0
2.32679
6
3.08625
2
2.97775
4
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.06480
0
2.52163
4
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.03174
1
0.00000
0
2.00522
9
0.00000
0
3.84781
4
3.18157
9
0.00000
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
1
1
6
1
8
1
8
2
3
6
1
6
1
8
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
4
8
62
63
64
65
1
4
1
4
4
8
5
2
3
2
5
4
9
3
8
2
4
2
9
5
0
5
0
4
3
5
3
2
6
2
2
2
1
3
5
2
9
3
6
ECONOMETRIA II
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
99
0.0121
68
0.0774
86
0.7881
73
0.5963
52
0.1640
07
0.1368
85
0.8054
04
0.5330
13
0.3910
64
0.7869
92
0.0305
83
0.1087
78
0.0778
96
0.2853
54
0.3760
10
0.5888
17
60
0.0120
20
0.0714
82
0.1669
56
0.2407
16
0.1371
09
0.1181
47
0.1567
28
0.2489
10
0.2381
33
0.1676
35
0.0296
47
0.0969
46
0.0718
29
0.2039
27
0.2346
27
0.2421
12
54
0.1096
34
0.2673
61
0.4086
03
0.4906
28
0.3702
82
0.3437
26
0.3958
89
0.4989
09
0.4879
89
0.4094
33
0.1721
84
0.3113
61
0.2680
08
0.4515
83
0.4843
83
0.4920
48
6
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.44736
5
2.03820
2
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.52596
0
2.00437
4
0.00000
0
2.44240
1
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.21443
2
2.06448
4
2.03232
1
6
9.12128
2
3.74025
6
2.44736
5
2.03820
2
2.70064
4
2.90929
7
2.52596
0
2.00437
4
2.04922
8
2.44240
1
5.80772
5
3.21170
9
3.73122
5
2.21443
2
2.06448
4
2.03232
1
2
142.2920
06
67.32461
6
44.05256
7
46.47101
7
16.20386
2
45.38502
8
45.46728
3
21.64723
5
22.13165
9
29.30881
6
83.63123
5
26.97835
4
26.86482
1
31.88782
8
29.72856
4
97.55140
4
Pgina 13
0
9.12128
2
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.03820
2
2.70064
4
2.90929
7
2.52596
0
2.00437
4
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
5.80772
5
3.21170
9
3.73122
5
2.21443
2
0.00000
0
2.03232
1
2
18.2425
65
7.48051
3
4.89473
0
4.07640
5
5.40128
7
5.81859
3
5.05192
0
4.00874
7
4.09845
5
2.44240
1
5.80772
5
3.21170
9
3.73122
5
6.64329
7
6.19345
1
6.09696
3
26
209.7894
97
93.50641
2
119.9208
77
77.45169
4
64.81544
6
84.36960
2
126.2980
07
100.2186
82
88.11679
1
129.4472
72
151.0008
41
70.65759
4
78.35572
7
77.50513
7
59.87002
5
73.16355
3
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.44736
5
2.03820
2
2.70064
4
0.00000
0
2.52596
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.44240
1
0.00000
0
3.21170
9
3.73122
5
0.00000
0
2.06448
4
0.00000
0
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
3
0
2
2
2
4
2
6
3
1
2
4
3
0
3
0
8
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
2
4
1
2
1
2
6
0
4
1
9
2
9
2
8
2
7
3
3
3
0
3
1
2
5
3
1
2
4
2
2
2
9
2
8
2
5
3
2
2
6
4
ECONOMETRIA II
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0.0717
14
0.4360
02
0.1362
84
0.3439
52
0.2770
42
0.4668
84
0.2152
79
0.3528
58
0.2657
57
0.1841
98
0.1103
20
0.2578
43
0.3985
86
0.2352
71
0.3843
30
0.6937
29
0.6630
0.0665
71
0.2459
04
0.1177
11
0.2256
49
0.2002
90
0.2489
03
0.1689
34
0.2283
49
0.1951
30
0.1502
69
0.0981
50
0.1913
60
0.2397
15
0.1799
19
0.2366
20
0.2124
69
0.2234
0.2580
13
0.4958
87
0.3430
90
0.4750
25
0.4475
38
0.4989
02
0.4110
15
0.4778
59
0.4417
35
0.3876
46
0.3132
88
0.4374
47
0.4896
07
0.4241
68
0.4864
36
0.4609
44
0.4726
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.00440
1
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.05576
7
2.16946
3
2.11566
3.87577
0
2.01658
7
2.91469
0
2.10515
1
2.23445
0
2.00440
1
2.43299
8
2.09266
8
2.26379
9
2.57967
4
3.19194
8
2.28599
2
2.04245
4
2.35755
5
2.05576
7
2.16946
3
2.11566
13.02258
8
60.49760
6
62.95730
1
50.52362
6
58.98946
9
62.53731
5
58.39196
1
62.78004
0
67.91398
3
21.66926
0
14.55528
3
10.97276
0
49.01888
8
28.29065
6
24.66920
5
130.1677
94
88.85777
Pgina 14
3.87577
0
2.01658
7
0.00000
0
2.10515
1
2.23445
0
2.00440
1
2.43299
8
2.09266
8
2.26379
9
2.57967
4
3.19194
8
2.28599
2
2.04245
4
2.35755
5
0.00000
0
2.16946
3
2.11566
11.6273
11
2.01658
7
2.91469
0
2.10515
1
2.23445
0
2.00440
1
2.43299
8
2.09266
8
2.26379
9
5.15934
8
6.38389
6
4.57198
3
4.08490
7
4.71510
9
4.11153
4
6.50839
0
6.34698
73.63963
4
58.48101
9
81.61131
6
56.83908
0
73.73683
7
60.13203
3
75.42295
0
52.31670
0
70.17778
2
61.91217
2
70.22285
8
66.29376
0
57.18870
3
58.93886
6
65.78454
6
56.40604
4
88.85777
3.87577
0
2.01658
7
0.00000
0
2.10515
1
0.00000
0
2.00440
1
0.00000
0
2.09266
8
0.00000
0
2.57967
4
3.19194
8
2.28599
2
2.04245
4
2.35755
5
2.05576
7
2.16946
3
0.00000
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
2
1
8
3
0
1
4
1
3
8
1
4
2
4
1
0
4
8
2
4
1
2
7
2
4
5
2
8
2
6
5
7
2
4
3
3
2
4
6
0
3
1
3
6
2
7
2
4
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
56
0.7050
28
0.4490
64
0.2459
56
0.8766
78
0.1503
51
0.2099
34
0.2815
93
0.6969
31
0.4510
38
0.3904
60
0.0685
81
0.2079
51
13
0.2079
63
0.2474
06
0.1854
62
0.1081
14
0.1277
45
0.1658
62
0.2022
99
0.2112
18
0.2476
03
0.2380
01
0.0638
77
0.1647
07
65
0.4560
30
0.4973
99
0.4306
53
0.3288
07
0.3574
15
0.4072
61
0.4497
76
0.4595
85
0.4975
97
0.4878
53
0.2527
40
0.4058
41
1
0.00000
0
2.01045
9
0.00000
0
3.04129
9
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.17587
7
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
1
2.19283
8
2.01045
9
2.32205
7
3.04129
9
2.79787
0
2.45542
6
2.22332
8
2.17587
7
2.00965
8
2.04979
6
3.95664
2
2.46401
7
8
39.47108
8
60.31378
2
33.43762
6
40.14514
1
23.50210
8
35.35814
0
53.35988
1
20.88842
4
96.46360
7
49.19509
7
47.47970
0
17.74092
6
1
0.00000
0
2.01045
9
0.00000
0
3.04129
9
2.79787
0
2.45542
6
2.22332
8
2.17587
7
2.00965
8
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.46401
7
4
4.38567
6
4.02091
9
2.32205
7
3.04129
9
2.79787
0
4.91085
3
2.22332
8
2.17587
7
4.01931
7
6.14938
7
7.91328
3
7.39205
2
8
98.67772
0
56.29286
3
60.37349
2
173.3540
20
67.14888
1
81.02907
2
53.35988
1
130.5526
47
62.29941
3
73.79264
6
106.8293
25
59.13641
8
De la muestra inicial se han eliminado aquellos datos en los cuales los estimados son
mayores a 1 y menores a 0.
Ahora nuevamente lo regresionaremos pero ahora con los valores ponderados:
De los cual tenemos como resultado:
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 15
0
2.19283
8
2.01045
9
2.32205
7
3.04129
9
2.79787
0
0.00000
0
2.22332
8
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
2.46401
7
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 16
Number of obs
F( 6,
88)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
94
41.33
0.0000
0.7381
0.7202
.94289
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Y |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------I | -.6662662
.0890762
-7.48
0.000
-.8432864
-.489246
X1 |
.0110508
.0032616
3.39
0.001
.0045691
.0175324
X2 | -.0571103
.0664804
-0.86
0.393
-.1892261
.0750056
X3 |
.0378492
.0481535
0.79
0.434
-.0578458
.1335441
X4 |
.0194861
.0031166
6.25
0.000
.0132925
.0256797
X5 |
.2383333
.0669247
3.56
0.001
.1053345
.371332
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 17
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 18
Modelo Alternativo:
Pero este modelo tambin tiene validez cuando se utiliza
Source |
SS
df
MS
94
-------------+------------------------------------------------------Model | 219.566299
4 54.8915749
Residual | 79.1093184 90
.878992427
0.7351
-------------+------------------------------------------------------0.7234
Total
| 298.675618 94
3.17740019
93755
Number of obs =
F( 4, 90) = 62.45
Prob > F
= 0.0000
R-squared
=
Adj R-squared =
Root MSE
= .
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Y
|
Coef. Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf.
Interval]
------------+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------i
| -.651422 .0815315
-7.99
0.000
-.8133986 -.4894454
X1
| .0113641 .0029135
3.90
0.000
.0055759 .
0171523
X4
| .0200395 .0030447
6.58
0.000
.0139906 .
0260884
X5
| .2297001 .0595893
3.85
0.000
.1113156 .
3480845
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 19
MODELO
LOGIT
0:
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
log
log
log
log
log
log
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
=
=
=
=
=
=
Logistic regression
Log likelihood = -43.6178
0.3833
-70.732917
-45.77691
-43.744933
-43.618606
-43.6178
-43.6178
Number of obs =
106
LR chi2(5)
=
54.23
Prob > chi2
=
0.0000
Pseudo R2
=
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------y
|
Coef.
Std. Err.
z
P>|z|
[95% Conf. Interval]
------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------x1
|
.0579226
.023441
2.47
0.013
.
0119792 .1038661
x2
|
-.0982231
.5814145
-0.17
0.866
-1.237774
1.041328
x3
|
.2395094
.3777875
0.63
0.526
-.5009405 .
9799593
x4
|
.1265935
.0281961
4.49
0.000
.0713302 .
1818569
x5
|
1.505064
.590472
2.55
0.011
.34776
2.662368
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 20
-7.285658
1.483033
-4.91
0.000
-10.19235
Pi= 1/1+e-Zi
Donde:
Zi es nuestra ecuacin derivada al correr el modelo logit por
Stata, es decir:
Zi = -7.285658 + 0.0579226*X1 -
0.098223*X2 + 0.2395094*X3 +
0.1265935*X4 + 1.505064* X5
Ahora, procedemos a reemplazar las variables con sus medias ponderadas y
para ver el efecto de la variable polictoma distrito, reemplazamos sus
valores (1, 2 y 3 para cada caso), obteniendo:
Sector 1 (x3=1)
Probabilidad: 0.30855485
Sector 2 (x3=2)
Probabilidad: 0.36183706
Sector 3 (x3=3)
Probabilidad: 0.418748
Con lo cual corroboramos la tendencia predicha por el modelo MPL,
mientas se viva en mejores lugares socioecnmicos, la probabilidad
a tener una casa ser mayor.
Modelo Alternativo:
. logit y x1 x4 x5, asis
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
0:
1:
2:
3:
4:
log
log
log
log
log
Logistic regression
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
ECONOMETRIA II
=
=
=
=
=
-70.732917
-45.919269
-43.944669
-43.829265
-43.828624
Number of obs
LR chi2(3)
Prob > chi2
=
=
=
106
53.81
0.0000
Pgina 21
Pseudo R2
0.3804
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------y |
Coef.
Std. Err.
z
P>|z|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------x1 |
.0602121
.0220087
2.74
0.006
.0170758
.1033483
x4 |
.1272599
.0277178
4.59
0.000
.0729339
.1815859
x5 |
1.472272
.5821708
2.53
0.011
.3312383
2.613306
_cons | -6.986278
1.273231
-5.49
0.000
-9.481765
-4.490792
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECONOMETRIA II
Pgina 22