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A crise econmica de 2008-2011 um desdobramento da crise financeira internacional,

precipitada pela falncia do tradicional banco de investimento estadunidense Lehman Brothers,


fundado em 1850. Em efeito domin, outras grandes instituies financeiras quebraram, no
processo tambm conhecido como "crise dos subprimes".
Alguns economistas, no entanto, consideram que a crise dos subprimes, tem sua causa primeira no
estouro da "bolha da Internet" (em ingls, dot-com bubble), em 2001, quando o ndice Nasdaq
(que mede a variao de preo das aes de empresas de informtica e telecomunicaes),
despencou.[1]
De todo modo, a quebra do Lehman Brothers foi seguida, no espao de poucos dias, pela falncia
tcnica da maior empresa seguradora dos Estados Unidos da Amrica, a American International
Group (AIG). O governo norte-americano, que se recusara a oferecer garantias para que o banco
ingls Barclays adquirisse o controle do cambaleante Lehman Brothers,[2] alarmado com o efeito
sistmico que a falncia dessa tradicional e poderosa instituio financeira - abandonada s
"solues de mercado" - provocou nos mercados financeiros mundiais, resolveu, em vinte e quatro
horas, injetar oitenta e cinco bilhes de dlares de dinheiro pblico na AIG, para salvar suas
operaes. Mas, em poucas semanas, a crise norte-americana j atravessava o Atlntico: a Islndia
estatizou o segundo maior banco do pas, que passava por srias dificuldades.[3]
As mais importantes instituies financeiras do mundo, Citigroup e Merrill Lynch, nos Estados
Unidos; Northern Rock, no Reino Unido; Swiss Re e UBS, na Sua; Socit Gnrale, na Frana
declararam ter tido perdas colossais em seus balanos, o que agravou ainda mais o clima de
desconfiana, que se generalizou. No Brasil, as empresas Sadia,[4] Aracruz Celulose[5] e
Votorantim[6] anunciaram perdas bilionrias.
Para evitar colapso, o governo norte-americano reestatizou as agncias de crdito imobilirio
Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac, privatizadas em 1968,[7] que agora ficaro sob o controle do governo
por tempo indeterminado.
Em outubro de 2008, a Alemanha, a Frana, a ustria, os Pases Baixos e a Itlia anunciaram
pacotes que somam 1,17 trilho de euros (US$ 1,58 trilho /R$ 2,76 trilhes) em ajuda ao seus
sistemas financeiros. O PIB da Zona do Euro teve uma queda de 1,5% no quarto trimestre de
2008, em relao ao trimestre anterior, a maior contrao da histria da economia da zona.[8]

Histria
Segundo George Soros, presidente do conselho da Soros Fund Management a crise atual foi
precipitada por uma "bolha" no mercado de residncias e, em certos aspectos, muito similar s
crises que ocorreram desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial, em intervalos de quatro a 10 anos.
Entretanto, Soros faz uma importante distino entre essa crise e as anteriores, considerando a
crise atual como o clmax de uma superexpanso (super-boom) que ocorreu nos ltimos 60 anos.
Segundo Soros, os processos de expanso-contrao (boom-bust ) giram ao redor do crdito, e
envolvem uma concepo erronea, que consiste na incapacidade de se reconhecer a conexo
circular reflexiva entre o desejo de emprestar e o valor das garantias colaterais. Crdito fcil cria
uma demanda que aumenta o valor das propriedades, o que por sua vez aumenta o valor do crdito
disponvel para financi-las. As bolhas comeam quando as pessoas passam a comprar casas na
expectativa de que sua valorizao permitir a elas refinanciar suas hipotecas, com lucros. Isso foi
o que aconteceu nessa ltima crise.[9]

Origem
Tudo comeou em 2001, com o furo da "bolha da Internet". Para proteger os investidores, Alan
Greenspan, presidente da Reserva Federal Americana, decidiu orientar os investimentos para o
setor imobilirio.[10] Adotando uma poltica de taxas de juros muito baixas e de reduo das

despesas financeiras, induziu os intermedirios financeiros e imobilirios a incitar uma clientela


cada vez maior a investir em imveis, principalmente atravs da Fannie Mae e da Freddie Mac que
j vinham crescendo muito desde que diferentes governos e polticos dos Estados Unidos as
usaram para financiar casas aos mais pobres. O governo garantia os investimentos feitos por estas
duas empresas. Bancos de vrios pases do mundo, atrados pelas garantias do governo, acabaram
emprestando dinheiro a imobilirias atravs da Fannie Mae e da Freddie Mac que estavam
autorizadas a captar emprstimos em qualquer lugar do mundo.
Foi assim criado o sistema das hipotecas subprimes, emprstimos hipotecrios de alto risco e de
taxa varivel concedidos s famlias "frgeis", ou seja, para os clientes apelidados de ninja, do
acrnimo sem renda, sem emprego e sem patrimnio. Na realidade, eram financiamentos de casas,
muitas vezes conjugados com a emisso de cartes de crdito, concedidos a famlias que os
bancos sabiam de antemo no ter renda familiar suficiente para poder arcar com suas prestaes.
Num passo seguinte, os bancos que criaram essas hipotecas criaram derivativos negociveis no
mercado financeiro, instrumentos sofisticados para securitiz-las, isto , transform-las em ttulos
livremente negociveis - por elas lastreados - que passaram a ser vendidos para outros bancos,
instituies financeiras, companhias de seguros e fundos de penso pelo mundo afora. Por uma
razo que se desconhece, as agncias mundiais de crdito deram a chancela de AAA - a mais alta a esses ttulos.
Quando a Reserva Federal, em 2005, aumentou a taxa de juros para tentar reduzir a inflao,
desregulou-se a mquina; o preo dos imveis caiu, tornando impossvel seu refinanciamento para
os clientes ninja, que se tornaram inadimplentes em massa, e esses ttulos derivativos se tornaram
impossveis de ser negociados, a qualquer preo, o que desencadeou um efeito domin, fazendo
balanar o sistema bancrio internacional, a partir de agosto de 2007.
O jornalista Hanna Rosin argumenta que os milhes de adeptos da teologia da prosperidade
podem ter influenciado o problema no mercado imobilirio, que causou a crise econmica de
2008-2009, por ignorar fatores como salrios por hora e extrato de conta bancria, bem como
causa e efeito, e um clculo prudente dos gastos oferecidos, em favor de "milagres financeiros e a
idia de que o dinheiro uma substncia mgica que vem como um dom do alto".[11]

A superexpanso (super-boom) de 60 anos


Nos ltimos 60 anos, cada vez que a expanso do crdito entrou em crise as autoridades
financeiras agiram injetando liquidez no sistema financeiro e adotando medidas para estimular a
economia. Isso criou um sistema de 'incentivos assimtricos', conhecido nos Estados Unidos como
moral hazard, que encorajava uma expanso de crdito cada vez maior. George Soros comenta:
"O sistema foi to bem sucedido que as pessoas passaram a acreditar naquilo que o ento
presidente Reagan chamava da "mgica dos livres-mercados" e que eu chamo de
fundamentalismo de livre mercado. Os fundamentalistas de livre mercado acreditam que os
mercados tendem a um equilbrio natural e que os interesses de uma sociedade sero alcanados
se cada indivduo puder buscar livremente seus prprios interesses. Essa uma concepo
obviamente errnea porque foi a interveno nos mercados, no a ao livre dos mercados, que
evitou que os sistemas financeiros entrassem em colapso. No obstante o fundamentalismo de
livre mercado emergiu como a ideologia econmica dominante na dcada de 1980, quando os
mercados financeiros comearam a ser globalizados, e os Estados Unidos passaram a ter um
dficit em conta-corrente".[9]
A globalizao permitiu aos Estados Unidos sugar a poupana mundial, e consumir muito mais do
que produzia, tendo seu dfict em conta-corrente atingido 6,2% do PIB em 2006. Seus mercados
financeiros 'empurravam' os consumidores a tomar emprestado, criando cada vez mais
instrumentos sofisticados e condies favorveis ao endividamento. As autoridades financeiras
colaboravam e incentivavam esse processo, intervindo - para injetar liquidez - cada vez que o
sistema financeiro global se visse em risco. A partir de 1980 os mercados financeiros mundiais

comearam a ser desregulamentados, tendo sua superviso governamental progressivamente


relaxada, at que essa virtualmente desapareceu.[9]
A superexpanso (super-boom) saiu dos trilhos quando os instrumentos financeiros se tornaram
to complicados que as autoridades financeiras governamentais se tornaram tecnicamente
incapazes de avaliar os riscos desses instrumentos financeiros, e passaram a se utilizar dos
sistemas de gerenciamento de riscos dos prprios bancos privados. Da mesma maneira as agncias
anlise de crdito internacionais se baseavam nas informaes fornecidas pelos prprios criadores
dos instrumentos sintticos; s vsperas da quebra da Fannie Mae essas agncias ainda
classificavam os derivativos de emprstimos subprime como um risco AAA. "Foi uma chocante
abdicao de responsabilidade", classificou Soros.[9]

[editar] Riscos e poderes regulatrios


Para alguns analistas a primeira metade da dcada de 2000 ser relembrada como a poca em que
as inovaes financeiras superaram a capacidade de avaliao de riscos tanto dos Bancos como
das agncias reguladoras de crdito. O caso do Citigroup emblemtico: o Citigroup sempre
esteve sob fiscalizao do Federal Reserve, e seu quase colapso indica que no s a
regulamentao ento vigente foi ineficaz como que o governo norte-americano, mesmo depois de
deflagrada a crise, subestimou sua severidade.[12] O Citigroup no esteve sozinho dentre as
instituies financeiras que se tornaram incapazes de compreender totalmente os riscos que
estavam assumindo. medida que os ativos financeiros se tornaram mais e mais complexos, e
cada vez mais difceis de serem avaliados, os investidores passaram a ser reassegurados pelo fato
de que tanto as agncias internacionais de avaliao de crdito de bnus (bonds) como os prprios
agentes reguladores, que passaram a nelas se fiar, aceitavam como vlidos os complexos modelos
matemticos - de impossvel compreenso para a maioria das pessoas - usados pelos criadores dos
produtos financeiros sintticos, que "provavam" que os riscos eram muito menores do que veio a
se verificar na realidade.[12] Na opinio de George Soros a posio das agncias reguladoras
financeiras estadunidenses demonstrou "uma chocante abdicao de suas responsabilidades".[13]

Crise do subprime
Em Birmingham, no incio de 2007, fila de clientes diante do Banco Northern Rock, o primeiro
banco a sofrer interveno no Reino Unido, desde 1860.
A crise do subprime desencadeada em 2006, a partir da quebra de instituies de crdito dos
Estados Unidos, que concediam emprstimos hipotecrios de alto risco (em ingls: subprime loan
ou subprime mortgage), arrastando vrios bancos para uma situao de insolvncia e repercutindo
fortemente sobre as bolsas de valores de todo o mundo. A crise foi revelada ao pblico a partir de
Fevereiro de 2007, culminando na Crise econmica de 2008.[14][15]
Subprimes so crditos bancrios de alto risco que incluem desde emprstimos hipotecrios at
cartes de crditos e aluguis de carros, e eram concedidos, nos Estados Unidos, a clientes sem
comprovao de renda e com histrico ruim de crdito. As taxas de juros eram ps-fixadas, isto ,
determinadas no momento do pagamento das dvidas. Por esta razo, com a disparada dos juros
nos Estados Unidos, muitos muturios ficaram inadimplentes, isto , sem condies de pagar as
suas dvidas aos bancos.
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Desde outubro de 2008 a crise financeira global levou falncia de muitas instituies financeiras
nos E.U.A. e dos pases europeus, ameaando o sistema financeiro global.
A partir do 18 de Julho de 2007, a crise do crdito hipotecrio provocou uma crise de confiana
geral no sistema financeiro e falta de liquidez bancria (falta de dinheiro disponvel para saque
imediato pelos correntistas do banco).
O problema que se iniciou com as hipotecas subprime espalhou-se por todas as obrigaes com
colateral, ps em perigo as empresas municipais de seguros e resseguros, e ameaou arrasar o
mercado de swaps, multitrilionrio em dlares. As obrigaes dos bancos de investimentos em
compras alavancadas se tornaram um passivo. Os hedge-funds, criados para ser supostamente
neutros em relao aos mercados, se provaram no to neutros, e tiveram que ser resgatados. O
mercado de commercial-papers paralisou-se, e os instrumentos especialmente criados pelos
bancos para tirar as hipotecas de seus balanos j no conseguiam mais encontrar fontes externas
de financiamento (funding). O golpe final veio quando o mercado de emprstimos interbancrio que o ncleo do sistema financeiro - paralisou-se. Os Bancos Centrais de todos os pases
desenvolvidos se viram obrigados a injetar rapidamente nos sistema financeiro mundial um
volume de recursos jamais injetado antes, e a estender crditos para uma variedade de papis
financeiros, e tipo de instituies, jamais socorridos anteriormente.[9]
Mesmo os bancos que no trabalhavam com os chamados "crditos podres" foram atingidos. O
banco britnico Northern Rock, por exemplo, no tinha hipoteca-lixo em seus livros. Porm,
adotava uma estratgia arriscada - tomar dinheiro emprestado a curto prazo (a cada trs meses) s
instituies financeiras, para emprest-lo a longo prazo (em mdia, vinte anos), aos compradores
de imveis. Repentinamente, as instituies financeiras deixaram de emprestar dinheiro ao
Northern Rock, que, assim, no incio de 2007, acabou por se tornar o primeiro banco britnico a
sofrer interveno governamental, desde 1860.[16]
Na seqncia, temendo que a crise tocasse a esfera da chamada "economia real",[17] os Bancos
Centrais foram conduzidos a injetar liquidez no mercado interbancrio, para evitar o efeito
domin, com a quebra de outros bancos, em cadeia, e que a crise se ampliasse em escala mundial.
Segundo o FMI declarou em 7 de outubro de 2008, as perdas decorrentes de hipotecas do mercado
imobilirio subprime j realizadas contabilizavam 1,4 trilho de dlares e o valor total dos crditos
subprime ainda em risco se elevava a 12,3 trilhes, o que corresponde a 89% do PIB
estadunidense.

O socorro governamental
Desde que a crise de confiana se agravou e se generalizou, paralisando o sistema de emprstimos
interbancrio mundial, o governo estadunidense decidiu pr de lado suas teorias neoliberais e
passou a socorrer ativamente as empresas financeiras em dificuldades.
Um pacote, aprovado s pressas pelo congresso estadunidense, destinou setecentos bilhes de
dlares de dinheiro do contribuinte americano a socorro dos banqueiros. Desde a quebra do Bear

Stearns[18] at outubro de 2008, o governo estadunidense e a Reserva Federal j haviam


despendido cerca de dois trilhes de dlares na tentativa de salvar instituies financeiras.
Os pases da UE tambm despenderam vrias centenas de bilhes de euros na tentativa de salvar
seus prprios bancos.
Em abril de 2009, o G-20, reunido em Londres, anunciou a injeo de US$ 1 trilho na economia
mundial de maneira a combater a crise financeira global.

Consequncias
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Oferta de emprstimos sem comprovao de renda, nos Estados Unidos.

Mundo
As demisses decorrentes da crise tm gerado reaes desesperadas na Frana. Em maro de
2009, em trs oportunidades trabalhadores franceses fizeram refns devido a demisses: dia 13,

funcionrios da Sony detiveram o presidente da empresa no pas por uma noite, forando o
pagamento de indenizaes maiores pelas demisses; no dia 25, o diretor de operao da 3M foi
detido por um dia, sendo libertado aps aceitar oferecer melhores condies aos 110 empregados
demitidos; e no dia 31, os funcionrios da Caterpillar fizeram quatro diretores da empresa refns,
aps o anncio do plano de cortar 733 empregos na unidade.[19]
Por outro lado, as emisses de CO na Unio Europeia foram reduzidas em 6% em 2008 em
decorrncia da crise, de acordo com o instituto de pesquisa Point Corbon, sediado em Oslo.[20]

Brasil
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f7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff
7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7
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087d737eff7fbd7fce7d317ebd7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff
7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7
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ff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7ff
f7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff
7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7
fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7f
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7fff7fff7fff7f947ead7dff7fd67eef7d4a7d947eff7fff7fff7fff7f9c7fff7f9c7fc67cad7d4a7df77e107e3
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7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7fff7
010009000003d30300000000c40200000000c402000026060f007e05574d4643010000000000010
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10000000000000000000000000000000005000020030000c40100001a0100000000000000000000
00000000e3e306006e4e0400460000002c00000020000000454d462b014001001c0000001000000
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0000000000000000000000000000100000089504e470d0a1a0a0000000d494844520000000f0000
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0300010101050901010101010101010a03000101010506070707070707070708030401010102030
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3400308070707070d0e01010101010a0300040303050b03030c01010101010a0300010101050901
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a030001010105060707070707070707080304010101020303030303030303030304ff0c000000400
92900aa000000000000000f00140000000000040000002701ffff030000000000
Evoluo do ndice Ibovespa entre 1994 e julho de 2009. possvel observar a forte queda do
Ibovespa durante o auge da crise.
Alguns economistas defendem que a crise do subprime no afetar significativamente o Brasil.[21]
De todo modo, segundo a maioria dos analistas, todos os pases do mundo sero tocados, em
algum momento, em maior ou menor grau, pelos feitos da crise deflagrada nos Estados Unidos,
devido a globalizao dos negcios entre pases.
No Brasil, o efeito mais imediato foi a baixa das cotaes das aes em bolsas de valores,
provocada pela venda macia de aes de especuladores estrangeiros, que se atropelaram para
repatriar seus capitais a fim de cobrir suas perdas nos pases de origem. Em razo disso, ocorreu
tambm uma sbita e expressiva alta do dlar. Posteriormente, grandes empresas brasileiras
exportadoras sentiram o baque da falta de crdito no mercado mundial para concretizar seus
negcios com parceiros estrangeiros. A recesso que atingiu uma grande parte dos pases
desenvolvidos tambm afetou o comrcio externo. Empresas como Embraer e Cummins por
exemplo, que tem seus faturamentos altamente dependentes de vendas ao exterior, tiveram que
cortar postos de trabalho e reduzir drasticamente o ritmo de produo. Grandes empresas
siderrgicas no Brasil tambm desligaram alguns fornos. Em efeito cascata, empresas menores
fornecedoras desses grandes conglomerados tambm foram atingidas.
Como o Brasil realizou profundas reformas econmicas durante o governo de Fernando Henrique
Cardoso, como o PROER, implementando sistemas mais rgidos de controle ao sistema financeiro
domstico, o Brasil ficou menos exposto ao cerne da crise, que foi a contaminao sistmica do
mercado financeiro internacional. Fora isso, a economia brasileira encontra-se numa posio bem
mais confortvel para enfrentar essa tempestade mundial do que em crises anteriores. O modelo
econmico adotado pelo pas desde fins dos anos 1990 - metas de inflao, cmbio flutuante e
responsabilidade fiscal - fez com que um colcho de proteo, atravs da obteno consistentes
reservas cambiais e de forte credibilidade internacional, salvaguardasse a economia. No obstante,

por estar incluso no comrcio mundial, o pas ainda assim sentiu efeitos colaterais pesados.
De imediato entretanto, os maiores prejuzos com a crise foram das empresas que especulavam
com derivativos de cmbio- e fizeram a aposta errada.[4][5][6] O governo anunciou que no pretende
cobrir, com dinheiro pblico, as milionrias perdas privadas, decorrentes de apostas malsucedidas.
A alta do dlar, embora possa eventualmente causar alguma presso inflacionria, tende a
aumentar a competitividade internacional das exportaes do pas, j que o preo dos produtos
brasileiros, em dlares, cai. No entanto, para os setores da economia brasileira que dependem de
importaes de produtos industrializados sem similar nacional (mquinas e equipamentos,
sobretudo produtos de alta tecnologia) ou mesmo de algumas commodities, como o trigo, o dlar
alto um problema.
No mercado interbancrio, houve uma paralisao quase total dos emprstimos normalmente
concedidos pelos grandes bancos aos menores. Num primeiro momento, o Banco Central do
Brasil decidiu isentar os grandes bancos de uma parte do depsito compulsrio, a qual deveria ser
destinada a emprstimos aos bancos menores. Mas, devido ao clima de quase pnico que se
instaurou nos mercados financeiros em geral, tal medida no se revelou suficiente: os grandes
bancos continuavam no concedendo emprstimos aos menores. Assim, o Banco Central decidiu
adquirir as carteiras de crdito de que os bancos pequenos desejassem se desfazer, desde que
oferecessem garantias. Houve presso ainda para que os bancos estatais comprassem bancos
menores em dificuldades. Assim, o Banco do Brasil comprou 49% das aes do banco
Votorantim, injetando liquidez mas no ficando com o controle acionrio da instituio.
Para evitar a falta de liquidez (falta de dlares) nos mercados de cmbio, o Banco Central tem
realizado leiles de venda de swaps cambiais e, para evitar especulaes, em outubro de 2008,
realizou at mesmo vrios leiles de venda de dlar fsico vista (moeda), utilizando as reservas
internacionais do Brasil, o que no era feito desde 2003. Com isto, o BC no pretendia derrubar as
cotaes do dlar, nem lhes impor um teto, mas somente aumentar a liquidez do mercado.[22]
Por outro lado, o Banco Central tem-se mostrado atento a quaisquer indcios de falta de liquidez
no sistema bancrio brasileiro, tendo liberado, por mais de uma vez, vrias dezenas de bilhes de
reais dos depsitos compulsrios, especialmente para os bancos mdios e pequenos, preferindo
essa irrigar o sistema bancrio desta forma, em vez de reduzir os juros bsicos (taxa Selic), o que
ainda poderia provocar presses inflacionrias. Se a economia mundial entrar em uma conjuntura
de deflao, o que no impossvel, s ento os juros podero ser reduzidos sem medo.
Em setembro de 2009, a agncia Moody's informou sobre a elevao de rating da dvida do
governo para grau de investimento, desde a deflagrao da crise econmica de 2008/2009. A
classificao tambm foi dada pelas agncias Fitch Ratings e a Standard & Poor's, em 2008.
Assim, o Brasil foi o primeiro pas a receber a elevao de categoria.[23]

Anlises e prognsticos
Soros
George Soros, em seu livro The New Paradigm for Financial Markets (2008), diz que "estamos
em meio a uma crise financeira no vista desde a crise de 1929"[24] e declara que essa crise
poderia, em tese, ter sido evitada:

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desgraadamente temos a idia de fundamentalismo de livre mercado, que hoje a


ideologia dominante, e que pressupe que os mercados se corrigem; e isso falso
porque geralmente a interveno das autoridades que salvam os mercados quando
eles se atrapalham. Desde 1980 tivemos cinco ou seis crises: a crise bancria
internacional de 1982, a falncia do banco Continental Illinois em 1984 e a falncia
do Long-Term Capital Management em 1998, para citar trs. Cada vez so as
autoridades que salvam os mercados, ou organizam empresas para faz-lo. As
autoridades tm precedentes para se basear. Mas, de alguma maneira, essa idia de
que os mercados tendem ao equilbrio e que seus desvios so aleatrios ganhou
aceitao geral e todos estes instrumentos sofisticados de investimentos foram
baseados nela.[24]

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Walter Williams

O professor e economista americano Walter Williams, em entrevista ao programa de televiso


Milnio da Globo News fez a seguinte anlise:
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Mas isto foi causado pelo governo (a crise), pela Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac e outros. E
as regulamentaes do governo nos E.U.A que obrigam os bancos a concederem
emprstimos a quem eles no concederiam de outra maneira. Foi a chamada Lei de
Reinvestimento Comunitrio que possibilitou aos pobres comprarem casa prpria.
Obrigaram os bancos a fazer emprstimos. [...] Eles disseram aos bancos: "Se quiser
abrir outra agncia, tem que nos mostrar que concedeu emprstimos a pobres, negros
ou minorias." E fizeram chantagem com os bancos. [...] Foi causada (a crise) pelo
governo.

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0
Lula
O presidente Lula, falando na abertura da reunio do G20 financeiro que se realizou em novembro
de 2008, em So Paulo, para debater alternativas para a crise internacional, ecoando George Soros,
tambm criticou a crena dogmtica na auto-regulao dos mercados:
01
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Ela (a crise) conseqncia da crena cega na capacidade de auto-regulao dos


mercados e, em grande medida, na falta de controle sobre as atividades de agentes
financeiros. Por muitos anos, especuladores tiveram lucros excessivos, investindo o
dinheiro que no tinham em negcios mirabolantes. Todos estamos pagando por essa
aventura. Esse sistema ruiu como um castelo de cartas e com ele veio abaixo a f
dogmtica no princpio da no interveno do Estado na economia. Muitos dos que
antes abominavam um maior papel do Estado na economia passaram a pedir
desesperadamente sua ajuda.

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Crise das dvidas soberanas


Ver artigos principais: Crise do limite de dvida dos Estados Unidos de 2011 e Crise da dvida
pblica da Zona Euro
O desdobramento mais recente da crise financeira e econmica internacional de 2008-2011 foi o
da insolvncia das naes desenvolvidas. O grande acmulo da dvida governamental fez estourar
a capacidade de endividamento dessas naes e causou uma enorme turbulncia financeira ao
provocar o temor de que essas naes no pudessem honrar com seus compromissos e
decretassem o calote da dvida[25]. A principal consequncia da crise das dvidas soberanas foi a
grande instabilidade social causada pelos cortes dos benefcios sociais[26].
Em naes como o Japo - que detm o maior percentual de endividamento - a relao dvida/PIB
j ultrapassa os 200%[27][28]. Nos Estados Unidos, entretanto, est maior dvida bruta entre todas as
naes do mundo, que j supera os 14,3 trilhes de dlares[29]. Neste ponto aliado s recentes
crises de insolvncia na Grcia, Irlanda e Portugal, e ao temor de que a Espanha, a Itlia e a GrBretanha[30] tambm no consigam honrar seus compromissos, o mercado financeiro sofreu um
forte abalo[31].
Porm, o estopim da segunda crise - que j vem sendo chamada de "dj vu de 2008"[32], por
acontecer em exatamente trs anos depois do primeiro estouro da crise do subprime - se deu na
desconfiana de que talvez os EUA no conseguissem honrar com seus compromissos. A crise do
limite de dvida dos EUA que levou a um longo processo negocial e de debate no Congresso
Americano sobre se o pas deveria aumentar o limite de dvida, e, caso afirmativo, em que
montante, fez crescer a especulao internacional sobre a real capacidade de solvncia
americana[33]. A crise forjou um fim quando um acordo complexo entre ambas as partes conseguiu
elevar o limite de gastos em 31 de julho de 2011. Aps a sua aprovao no Congresso e Senado,
foi ratificado pelo Presidente Barack Obama, ficando o acordo conhecido como Budget Control
Act of 2011 em 2 de agosto, data limite para o acordo[34]. Porm o mercado no reagiu
positivamente ao acordo, e nos dias que se seguiram, a maior parte das bolsas de valores mundiais
fecharam em forte queda[35].
Diante do quadro da crise, a agncia de classificao de notas de crdito Standard & Poor's (S&P),
rebaixou pela primeira vez na sua histria a nota da dvida pblica dos Estados Unidos de AAA
para AA+, devido crescente dvida e ao pesado dficit de oramento[36]. Imediatamente ao
rebaixamento da nota de crdito dos EUA, as bolsas de valores mundiais calcularam altissimas
perdas. Seguiu-se ainda que os dados divilgados no ms de agosto apontavam que as economias
da Zona do Euro haviam crescido menos do que o previsto sendo que algumas j estavam em
profunda recesso[37]. Depois de inumeras perdas, algumas aes de bancos se recuperaram nas
semanas seguintes de agosto com os mercados acionrios globais, em parte, recuperados aps o
rebaixamento da nota da dvida estadunidense[38].