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ECONOMICS 21
Choose the action (associated with a number of outcomes, where each occurs with given probability) that maximizes expected utility.
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p > MC: zero demand, p < MC: negative profit, p = MC: zero profit.
= p x q(p) - c(q(p))
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Under certainty, nature chooses the single outcome for sure. Under uncertainty, nature chooses one of the possible outcomes (with the probability of that outcome).
Modeling Interaction
In general, in all social interaction, my choice of action influences your choice (because my action influences your payoff [utility, profit], and your action influences mine).
Example (duopoly): How I choose my price depends on how I expect you to choose your price, which depends on how you expect me to choose my price, which depends on how I expect you to choose because our profits depend on how we both choose prices.
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Game Theory
Game theory is the study of such games: social interactions between rational agents. All of economics is a branch of game theory
(Robert Aumann)
There is only one agent (and nature). The number of agents is so large that the action of one agent has no effect on the other agents payoffs. A (non-trivial) example of game-theoretic analysis.
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Principal-Agent analyses:
Game Theory
John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern (1944) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
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A Classification of Games
Simultaneous move games (static games):
All players make their choices at the same time. Method of analysis: (usually) games in normal (or, strategic) form.
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each player chooses one of her available strategies; a strategy profile is a list of the strategies chosen by each player;
the payoffs for each player, depending on the choice of action of every player;
This normal form (or strategic form) of the game captures all the information needed.
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player 1: {cut price, dont cut} player 2: {cut price, dont cut}
Strategy profiles:
(cut price, cut price) (cut price, dont cut) (dont cut, cut price) (dont cut, dont cut)
Equilibrium in Games
What is our prediction for the play of a game?
Which strategies will agents choose? What is an appropriate definition of equilibrium in games?
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Dominant Strategies
Suggestion 1: If a player has some strategy that gives her a higher payoff than any other strategy she could choose, regardless of what the other players in the game do, she will choose that strategy. Such a strategy is called a dominant strategy.
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The equilibrium strategy profile in dominant strategies is (cut price, cut price). In this equilibrium the payoffs are: (1, 1).
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1:
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Nash Equilibrium
Suggestion 2: If there is a (potential equilibrium) strategy profile in which no player wishes to deviate unilaterally (i.e. choose a different strategy while all other players continue playing their (potential equilibrium) strategies), this will be the equilibrium of the game. Definition: An equilibrium in which no player wishes to deviate unilaterally is called a Nash equilibrium (John Nash, 1951).
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1:
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What is the Nash equilibrium in this game? There are two Nash equilibria (in pure strat.).
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Although he prefers boxing, and she prefers ballet, each would rather be with the other than on their own.
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Some equilibria in co-ordination games such as the battle of the sexes game are salient. For instance, going wherever he prefers has been salient (is no longer?).
The overall conclusion is negative: there is no uncontested way of paring down the number of Nash equilibria.
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Best Responses
Another way of thinking about Nash equilibria is in terms of best responses: Definition: A players best response to the strategies played by the other players, is the strategy that gives her the highest payoff, given the strategies played by the other players.
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1s best response to 2 playing (cut price) is: (cut price). 1s best response to 2 playing (dont cut) is: (cut price). 2s best response to 1 playing (cut price) is: (cut price). 2s best response to 1 playing (dont cut) is: (cut price).
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1s best response to 2 playing (VHS) is: (VHS). 1s best response to 2 playing (Beta) is: (Beta). 2s best response to 1 playing (VHS) is: (VHS). 2s best response to 1 playing (Beta) is: (Beta).
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Player 2: cut price cut price Player 1: dont cut (1, 1) (0, 3) dont cut (3, 0) (2, 2)
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Sony (2): VHS VHS JVC (1): Beta (2, 1) (0, 0) Beta (0, 0) (1, 2)
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Applications
between monopoly and perfect competition ...
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two firms (duopolists), 1 and 2 players 1 and 2 set prices p1, p2 simultaneously players 1, 2 produce quantities y1, y2 of the same homogeneous product, each at constant marginal cost c inverse demand: p = a - bY, where Y = y1 + y2 assumption: if p1 < p2, then y1 = Y, y2 = 0 and vice versa assumption: if p1 = p2, then y1 = y2 = 1/2 Y
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Strategies:
Payoffs:
player is profit: i = piyi - cyi, or i = (pi - c)yi, where i = 1, 2 for player 1: player 1s profit when p1 < p2: 1 = (p1 - c) Y, i.e. 1 = (p1 - c) (a - p1)/b player 1s profit when p1 > p2: 1 = 0 player 1s profit when p1 = p2: 1 = (p1 - c) 1/2 Y, i.e. 1 = (p1 - c) 1/2 (a - p1)/b similarly for player 2.
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No: profits are negative. Suppose player 1 were to charge a price above marginal cost. Then player 2 could just undercut player 1s price and take the entire market. Similarly for player 2.
The only price at which one player does not have to anticipate being undercut by the other player is price = marginal cost.
The Nash equilibrium strategy profile in the Bertrand game is for both players (i = 1, 2) to set pi = c.
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two firms (duopolists), 1 and 2 players 1 and 2 set quantities y1, y2 simultaneously players 1, 2 produce quantities y1, y2 of the same homogeneous product, each at constant marginal cost c inverse demand: p = a - bY, where Y = y1 + y2
Strategies:
Payoffs:
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firm 1s profit when it sets quantity y1 and firm 2 sets quantity y2: 1 (y1, y2) = p y1 - c y1, or: 1 (y1, y2) = (a - b(y1 + y2)) y1 - c y1, or: 1 (y1, y2) = ay1 - by12 - by2y1 - c y1, or: 1 (y1, y2) = - by12 + (a - by2 - c)y1. Similarly for firm 2: 2 (y1, y2) = - by22 + (a - by1 - c)y2.
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Nash equilibrium
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Cournot Monopoly
Bertrand quantity P. C.
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a players strategy is a list of actions of that player at each decision node where that player can take an action;
An action at some decision node is a players decision of what to do when that node is reached. A strategy is a complete list of actions that a player plans to take at each decision node, whether or not that node is actually reached. Example (the entry game): if player 1 chooses to stay out, player 2s decision node is not reached.
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Backward Induction
A method for finding subgame perfect equilibria is backward induction.
A subgame perfect equilibrium is a specification of all players strategies such that play in every subgame is a (Nash) equilibrium for that subgame. In particular, this is true for the final subgame(s). So we know what happens in the final subgame: we can replace that subgame by the payoff that will be reached in that subgame. Then proceed similarly in this new reduced game, until there is only one subgame left.
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Entry Deterrence
Entry deterrence: the incumbent takes an action that influences payoffs such that she can commit to the threat of fighting a new entrant.
Remember: in the entry game, the threat to fight was noncredible, and was therefore eliminated by subgame perfection.
Suppose before playing the entry game, the incumbent can choose to incur a cost in readiness to fight a price war.
Suppose this cost does not reduce payoffs if there is a price war, but does reduce costs if there is no price war. (In our example, this cost is 4.)
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(0, 8)
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B
enter
C
enter
player 1: enter (B), enter (C) enter (B), stay out (C) stay out (B), enter (C) stay out (B), stay out (C)
etc.
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two firms (duopolists), 1 and 2 players 1 and 2 set quantities y1, y2 player 1 moves first (she is the Stackelberg leader) player 2 observes 1s choice of y1, and then sets y2. players 1, 2 produce quantities y1, y2 of the same homogeneous product, each at constant marginal cost c inverse demand: p = a - bY, where Y = y1 + y2
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Strategies:
Payoffs:
firm 1s profit when it sets quantity y1 and firm 2 sets quantity y2: 1 (y1, y2) = p y1 - c y1, or: 1 (y1, y2) = (a - b(y1 + y2)) y1 - c y1, or: 1 (y1, y2) = ay1 - by12 - by2y1 - c y1, or: 1 (y1, y2) = - by12 + (a - by2 - c)y1. The combinations of y1 and y2 for which profit is constant are firm 1s isoprofit curves. (Topic 4) Similarly for firm 2: 2 (y1, y2) = - by22 + (a - by1 - c)y2.
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Nash equilibrium in the Cournot game Subgame perfect equilibrium in the Stackelberg game f2(y1) - firm 2s reaction function
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