LOCAL ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT | AIR INDUSTRY

Youth movement afoot with fleets

By TERRY MAXON
Staff Writer tmaxon@dallasnews.com

KYLE ALCOTT
Staff Artist kalcott@dallasnews.com

Theres nothing like jet fuel at more than $3 a gallon to make airlines take a fresh look at buying newer, more fuel-efficient airplanes. The past 10 years, with large losses and multiple bankruptcies, slowed the industrys plans to replace older airplanes. But aging fleets and rising fuel prices are now forcing their hands.

Matching the airplane to the market

It is easy to say that airlines should fly the most economical airplane. But for what market? Its not an easy decision for airlines buying single-aisle airplanes with 120 to 180 seats. For our exercise, lets assume the cost of jet fuel is $3.30 per gallon and the flight is 1,500 miles. LOWEST COST PER FLIGHT If you want the airplane that has the lowest cost per flight, buy the Boeing 737-700. It can fly the 1,500 miles for less than comparable single-aisle airplanes. FUEL COST Airbus A319 Airbus A320 Airbus A321 Boeing 737-400 Boeing 737-700 Boeing 737-800 Boeing 737-900 Boeing 737-900ER $7,553 $8,122 $9,699 $8,824 $7,325 $8,331 $8,821 $8,828 PER PASSENGER EFFICIENCY But the Boeing 737-700 isnt as efficient on a per-passenger basis. Heres how those same airplanes compare on that 1,500-mile flight. SEATS 122 148 183 144 124 157 172 181 GALLONS PER PASSENGER 18.76 16.63 16.06 18.57 17.9 16.08 15.54 14.78 CHEAPEST COST PER PASSENGER The cheapest airplanes are the largest airplanes, but only if you can fill all your seats. Heres the fuel cost per passenger if every seat is filled. COST PER PASSENGER $61.91 $54.88 $53.00 $61.28 $59.07 $53.06 $51.28 $48.77

Oldest models in service

The ageless Douglas DC-9 is the oldest fleet type still operated by the big U.S. carriers. Here are the oldest aircraft types being operated by various airlines as of Dec. 31: Average age Airline Aircraft in years Southwest Airlines Delta Air Lines American Airlines Southwest Airlines Delta Air Lines US Airways US Airways US Airways American Airlines Delta Air Lines Boeing 737-300 Boeing 767-300 McDonnell Douglas MD-80 Boeing 737-500 McDonnell Douglas MD-88 Boeing 737-400 Boeing 767-200ER Boeing 737-300 Boeing 767-200ER Douglas DC-9 19 19.7 20 20 20.5 20.8 21.4 22.8 24 34.1

Potential fuel savings

Airbus with its A320neo family and Boeing with its 737 MAX lineup will introduce updates on those aircraft families with engines they say could reduce jet fuel use by roughly 15 percent. Heres what U.S. airlines would save if they could cut their fuel bills by 15 percent (based on 2010s bills): Airline AirTran Alaska American Delta JetBlue Southwest United US Airways $360 million $167 million $543 million $1.43 billion Savings $130 million $135 million $960 million $1.14 billion

SOURCES: Airlines, 10-K filings, Dallas Morning News research. Fuel usage and seating on single-aisle airplanes from Alaska Air Group.

The bottom line

One of the things we get all the time is, With all those airplanes in the desert, thatll be a really good time to start a new carrier. No it wont. Those airplanes are going to the desert for a reason. Theyre either worn out or theyre economically worn out. The next time you see most of the airplanes that go out to the Arizona desert, they will be holding Budweiser. Michael Boyd, president, Boyd Group International Looking at the airplanes that are going to be replaced, about 60 percent come from increased traffic and about 40 percent come from the fact that the airplanes are getting old. And if one projects out about another five years, youll have almost 5,000 airplanes at over 25 years of age, and thats about the time that they start changing those airplanes out. James F. Albaugh, president and CEO, Boeing Commercial Airplanes Carriers like American Airlines and Delta Air Lines are placing large orders for new airplanes. Unlike the huge purchases in 1980s, these orders are to replace existing aircraft, not to grow. With jet fuel costing over $3 a gallon, it makes sense to hurry up replacement of airplanes delivered when fuel was 75 cents.

Terry Maxon, staff writer, The Dallas Morning News