yelresaidua aisnfe QA omnia1. RISCO, INSTABILIDADE E REACOES EMPRESARIAIS ‘Vamos diseutir as reagdes empresariais em um contexto de recessio, instabilidade e agravamento do risco empresarial. Un primeiro ponto a ser considerado ¢ que por instabilidade nao se considera uma etapa particular do ciclo econémico, mas sim a variabilidade acentuada ou até mesmo a impossibilidade de fi- xaco de parmetros reguladores das expectativas e dos padr6es derisco, Em um quadro como esse, a andlise das empresas e suas reagdes torna-se muito dificil porque os padrées te6ricos con- vencionais de comportamento da firma fornecem ajuda parca. Assim, por exemplo, podemos aceitar que, sob alta instabilida- de, as empresas, sobretudo as grandes, mantenham planos de investimento que correspondem & sua estratégia de longo pra- 20, Estes planos certamente sofreram revisdes na etapa mais aguda da crise brasileira, mas no foram totalmente abandona- dos. Se tomarmos, no entanto, o perfodo de instabilidade como um todo, pouco nos auxilia na compreensio do comportamen- to da empresa projetada no “longo prazo”. Isso é verdadeiro mesmo se tomarmos as vers6es “mais financeiras” de teoria da firma, como a de Adrian Wood, para quem as margens de lucro04 soue sop yeuy op jsexg ou anbrod ‘opuoxasssap sowreyss and sagStpuoo se apuodso1z09 ogu c1ustupsoAut OF UpEp aseytI2 Y “O] proueuy exed opt sy ‘no cauauinsaaut op ousor wa sags}oap sep 2 Ors11 op oxsonb e aiuounearssaoxo renaca wiozey seja anb ap orgy ou apIsersepy SepeD -ypisn{ auaureus|d 194 ossou v ‘saxomne sojad sepyenxa saosny> “woo sy axoyor as ovu seipp) sesso v oufodsoz wo9 ovSeystiesUT sieatdes ap a oupgi9 ap sopeaiaKu sot on ‘onstr ap @ ossaoe ap samt] so auyfap anb ‘(o29n] sop ansed v op 1d¥9 ourdoad nas o jedyoutsd omzoureptmny owt0> Sunsse op iX9 ,OAOU OJUDLUEPIAIpU,, Op IUdULE stag “esoadao ep on anb eunye ppopey ‘or orSensauy ap ose ou (soprunt sossituouduios sow soapuodso1sos) sepmby] seprad ajnumse esascua v anb 9 oosts (© ‘stendes ap opeaiour ou sojmap ap oiuauesuey op no oMpa:9 op oipausiaiuy sod “esaadwwa vp peaideo ov opSujes wo soaaun -SoAuy 0 sentatunt elasep 1, tum ayusuetadoad stout 9 yy!4P2[EY{ 9p 4921996019 095 SOAU OF Ex[D9UEUIY WOpso ap som PY [2u09 ow0> ‘opofau op cauowHIpUDs Op nb oxspsoxduio op no §, sopeusoa op 02 »O ‘yopai o avn nbuen, vied ovsed -sasap vaed opuariosuos a ,eisaidura tran 3 exapssaoou < oasis nas op ogSipe eand eum, omrocusoa vraeiuasasdas ‘ouumua ou Sod opunsas op Q “(opezsttu opuapod) jaagraaur ‘o1uenod ‘9 o1taumnsaaut op joapioossip jeor JeIDOs Orsnd,, tun vEMsyuOD odn oxfouad op 025! © ‘staaganp sjeaa suaq sop o5asd ov opesodioa ued ‘ns ta, no opor ou anb opusuainsize ‘ode 0340012) OP vaand va S10. zoz mw ope 319 op ompatu OP e2adso anb oruaunpirsa o op wznasou stout sod opersui oney ap sarqo wa 0} O>s11, © “OujaUIIId © «roost 5 Dato HeutLd O sy00s op sodt NIP souday, . 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Asmudangas nas condigbes do crédito e na orientagio geral da economia ocorridas antes e durante 0 “ajustamento” equivaleram a um deslocamento da fungio de “risco crescente” de Kalecki (que relaciona nfveis de risco de endividamento com fo capital proprio das empresas), ou a uma stibita deteriora dos padres de risco dos pontos de vista do eredor e do deve- dor. Este deslocamento afetou nao s6 as decisGes de formar novas dividas com o propésito de investimento (Keynes), como tam- levou & deterioragdo da qualidade do endividamento jé contratado ¢ que financiava os ativos existentes (Minsky). privilégio concedido ao “ajuste” das margens de endivi- damento no ambito da estratégia empresatial privada justifica-se plenamente no quadro das mudangasjé assinaladas. Observamos que a relagio financeira estabelecida a partir dos contratos de df- vida obriga a pagamentos certos, regulares e, nas condig6es como as que passaram a vigorar no Brasil, até mesmo crescentes. De ‘outra parte, a geracio corrente de fundos pelas empresas torna- va-se cada dia mais incerta 4 medida que avangava a politica do “ajustamento”. Em uma segunda etapa, a partir de 1984, 0 processo de ajuste empresarial ganharia maior complexidade. O perfodo recessivo foi provisoriamente superado ¢ a reestruturagio defensiva jé poderia ser dada como concluida. 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as demais categorias de bancos, como os pequenos ¢ médios “atacadistas” dentre os bancos privados nacionais « mesmo os tpicos “aracadistas” do perfodo, os bancosestrangei. 70% Para os quals 0s depésitos vista nfo erama fonte preponde- ‘ante de recursos. No caso dos bancos piblicos, que dispunham dle rede eservigos bascantedisseminados para atender i popula. $0, como o Banco do Brasil eos grandes bancos estaduais (Banco do Estado de S30 Paulo, Banespa, em particular), 0 efeitos da dlesmonetizagao foram também sensiveis sobre a estrutura de ecursos. Também esses bancos pucleram contar com 0 reforco dos ganhos originados dessa fonte Na composigo de recursos do Banco do Brasil, os depési« ta chegaram a representar 24%% do total em 1979. Essa participacao cai para 16% no final do periodo (1985). A rede. Sto, em valor real, atinge nada menos do que 564. No entanto, © BB beneficiou-se enormemente no perfodo, em se tratando de rentabilidade Ifquida, Sua taxa de lucro (lucro apds IR sobre a média mensal do patsiménio liquido) nunca foi inferior a 1096 aps 1980, chegando a superar os 15% em varios semestres, Convém observar que isso ocorria enquanto tinha lugar um tosay fortissima reduc: Vidade econémica da operagio tfpica do Banco: o crédito a ati- Quanto aos grandes estachiais,o benetfcio do “Iucto inflacio~ nario” apenas impediu que seus demonsteativos evidenciassemn Prejuizos operacionais, que no entanto e mesmo assim tornar- se-iam patentes a partir de 1982-83, 246 DePois DA QUEDA, 1.2. A retragao do crédito, as mudangas ativas e o lucro financeiro, ucio do lucro bancé- li -xplicagio da evol Hi que ser sublnado, na explicacio da aboastind rio durante o ajustamento, o papel decisivo da politica de divida aiblica, A divida em ticulos passou a crescer rapidamente a partir iblica. A divida em teu ea pari & ‘guinada recessiva da politica econdmica no final de 1980. A.co- locagio de novos titulosapoiou-se em raxasreais de juros ade, justificadas, na retérica oficial, por conta de dois objetivos acrO icos: a conten¢do da demanda interna e o incentive macroecon6micos: Keno A contratagio de empréstimos no exterior. Os bancos brasileiro estrangeiros corresponderam plenamente a essa orientagao do go- eA er pensacio da queda dos dep6- verno. fonteextema permit compensagfo dag pe sitos vista na estrutura de recursos do sistema bancétio e, por est até a “crise da divida” em 1982. razio, cresceram aceleradamen Estrutura do passivo dos grandes bancos privados nacional -% Sea AOE(wiz Gonzaca eetiuzz0 e 1 220 € J0LIO Gomes DE ALMEIDA ona banca Grandes bacon nacional - Em % do tl daca DePoIs oA queDA Rentabilidade (luce liquide IPL) dos grandes bancos -em % woe 98a (ornimer or roar om TRS D OS eG TS] Empréstines dos gran réstines dos grands bancos pivades- Valores reals de $966 -Cz$ bios zee Os juros das operagoes de crédito também aumentaram, acom- panhando as taxas dos titulos da divida piblica, mas essa nfio foi uma fonte destacada de acréscimo da renda bancéria no pe- riodo. A prépria politica de crédito vinha limitando a conces- sho de empréstimos com recursos domésticos. 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