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Weekly CDS Spread Change, as of 4/19/02 (bps) Base Case CDO ROE Barometer Changes, as
10
of 4/12/02 Newly Priced CDOs, as of 4/19/02
5 HY Bonds (2.0% HY Loans (1.5% IG Corporates Multi-Sector Deal Type Issuer Size
CADR) CADR) (0.25% CADR) (0.25% CADR)
0 0
(2) (3) Cash–IG Corps San Miguel CDO $230.0
(5) (3) (20)
(8)
(18)
(40)
(10) Ayt. 9 FT-Pymes
Weekly change (bps)
(60)
(64) Cash–HY Loans €189.5
(15) ICO III
(80)
(20)
(100) Source: Banc of America Securities LLC.
(25) (28)
(120)
(30)
(140) (156)
US Autos US Financials US Telecoms. US Retail
(160)
(180)
Source: Banc of America Securities LLC.
Source: Banc of America Securities LLC.
For Structured Credit Strategy Information, please visit our website at http://bofa.com/capitalmarkets
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
Credit spread markets largely Credit spread markets largely moved sideways on the week as the market continued to focus on
moved sideways new issue supply and as market participants re-assessed the direction of spreads. The high
grade cash market was modestly wider after a prolonged period of general spread tightening,
Further tightening in ASW/CDS
while the CDS market continued to see marginal spread tightening— resulting in a modest
basis
ASW/CDS basis tightening. Earnings season continued to add some volatility to these markets,
although announcements have generally been in line with or better than expectations. At the
same time, indications of more uncertainty in the timing of macroeconomic recovery (e.g.,
Greenspan’s indication that the Fed would not begin to turn back its monetary stimulus policies
as soon as was being priced in by the market), and remaining concerns over the speed of a
corporate earnings rebound put a stop to prior weeks’ spread tightening trend. The continued
record pace of high grade new issue supply coming to the market—$6.5 billion week to date or
$34.5 billion month to date through Thursday—have also limited further spread tightening. In
contrast, CDS spreads on the margin continued to grind in on back of strong demand from
synthetic portfolio transactions.
Telecoms and autos were the On a sector-by-sector basis, telecoms and autos were the notable outperformers. The gains in
notable outperformers the telecom sector were largely a reversal from the prior week’s scare regarding WorldCom’s
viability; WorldCom retraced 125—175 bps from prior week’s levels. In turn, the gains in the
auto sector were largely on the back of better-than-expected Q1 earnings and full-year earnings
guidance. Similarly banks, brokers and finance companies demonstrated a tightening bias,
particularly credits subject to spread widening of late (e.g., Merrill following the announcement
of the NY attorney general’s investigation). In contrast, the already technically tight retail
names showed a more mixed performance.
Credits in the communications space saw across-the-board spread tightening. In addition to the
notable reversal of the prior week’s spread widening in WorldCom (which ended the week at
700/750), Sprint came in 30 bps to end at 250/310 while other names—such as AOL, AT&T,
and Viacom—were all in all 5–10 bps tighter.
Auto credits (ex auto suppliers) were also notable for their consistent –albeit more modest—10
bps of tightening week over week. The movement in the sector started after GM issued its
1Q02 earnings announcement (which beat market expectations) and increased its full-year 2002
earning guidance. Ford’s better-than-expected earnings announcement gave added assurance to
the sector. In addition to the auto names, Visteon was also in 10 bps, though TRW and Delphi
were flat week over week.
Among the banks, brokers and finance companies, the credits that had recently blown out
began to reverse themselves. On news of an imminent settlement with the NY attorney general
and on the back of better-than-expected earnings, Merrill ended 7 bps tighter at 60/68.
Similarly, names such as Household, JP Morgan, and MBNA—all names that had widened of
late—came in 4–9 bps each.
In contrast, performance was more mixed among the technically tighter retail names. The
outperformers were Toy R Us (20 bps tighter), Eastman Kodak (10 bps tighter), and Federated
(5 bps tighter). The underperformers were Neiman-Marcus (10–15 bps wider) and Sears
Acceptance (5 bps wider). Nordstrom remained unchanged week over week at 80/100.
Fitch: First Quarter HY Fitch recently reported its first quarter high yield default and recovery statistics. On the one
Default/Recovery Stats hand, Fitch reported that the first quarter defaults hit a new peak in high yield defaults (4.9% in
the first quarter;13.6% on a trailing twelve-month basis or 12% on trailing LTM—excluding
fallen angels) in recent years. On the other hand, the minimal decline in the defaulted paper’s
pricing relative to its pricing at the beginning of the year indicates the market had largely
priced in these defaults. In other words, first quarter’s defaulted paper had a weighted average
*
All CDS quotes are for five years unless stated otherwise. Please reference SCP Report Credit Default Swaps Primer, June 12, 2001 for introduction to credit default swaps
and their applications. Also see SCP Report CDS Pricing Convention: Crib Sheet for Cash Investors, August 20, 2001 for further brief explanation of CDS pricing terminology.
2
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
price of 24.2% of par, which is just slightly below its average pricing at the beginning of the
year of only 26.7% of par—a minimal incremental dollar loss. In fact, the defaulted paper’s
weighted-average price of 24.2% of par compares favorably to an average recovery of only
15% of par for 2001 defaults.
Lang Gibson
CDO Market Analysis & Overview Erin McCutcheon
Multi-sector and HY loan CDO Corporate spreads (both HY and IG) continued to stay put last week, with all of the focus being
barometers tightened on the placed on the booming new issue market as issuers continued to term out their CP funding and
week; corporates steady
lock in historically low yields. As a result, HY and IG barometers stayed steady a second week
in a row at 18.3% and 20.1%, respectively. By contrast, the multi-sector (MS) and HY loan
barometers tightened 150 bps and 70 bps, respectively, to 18.6% and 15.4%. The relatively low
level of the HY loan barometer is primarily driven by new issue BB/BB– institutional loan
pricing, which was L+300 last week. The more a loan manager can source collateral from the
secondary market, where spreads are generally wider than L+300, and still keep defaults to a
minimum, of course, the more likely the deal’s equity can achieve an attractive IRR. Of
particular note was the 8-bp tightening in the MS CDO funding gap (to 178 bps—the lowest it
has reached since pre-Sept. 11). The drivers behind this tightening were a 10-bp tightening in
BBB CDO spreads (20% of pool) and a 20-bp tightening in BB CMBS (10% of pool).
IG corporate CDO equity appears Among our four sectors, the IG corporate barometer was the highest last week and the second-
relatively attractive on a risk- highest (behind MS CDOs) for the one-month average readings. To the extent that investors are
adjusted basis
comfortable with the collateral structure in a particular IG corporate CDO, we feel 20.1%
(significantly higher for synthetics) is an attractive base case ROE. On a risk-adjusted basis,
spread and default volatility are relatively low in IG corporates as compared to HY bonds and
loans. Furthermore, the IG corporate barometer was 420 bps higher on the year and 520 bps
wider versus the 2001 average pre-Sept. 11, respectively. Conversely, the other three sectors
are 300–450 bps tighter on the year and 90–610 bps tighter versus the 2001 average (pre-Sept.
11).
CDO issuance slowed on the The week’s issuance consists of two cash deals—PIMCO’s San Miguel IG CBO and AyT. 9
week, with only two cash deals FTPYME ICO III, which is the third of Spain’s “Titulizacion de Activos” SME loan
printing
securitizations. These deals together contributed $400 million in CDO issuance, bringing YTD
volume to approximately $14.3 billion.
PIMCO’s San Miguel transaction set new benchmarks for the year for pricing on arbitrage cash
flow IG CBOs brought by top-tier CDO managers. The unwrapped AAA class printed at 6mL
+ 43, which is only one bp wider than the MBIA-wrapped AAAs of Atlantic Asset
Management’s recent Clearwater Funding 2002-A, and six bps inside the unwrapped AAA
class of the same deal. While the AA notes from both deals printed at the same level—6mL +
80—San Miguel’s BBBs also priced at the much tighter level of 6mL + 250, which is a full 100
bps inside Clearwater Funding’s levels, and 75 bps tighter than Aladdin Capital’s IG CBO
BBB’s print in January. San Miguel’s cheaper BBB levels can primarily be attributed to its
split-rating of Baa1/BBB, the relatively high equity deposit of 5.7%, and PIMCO’s relative
clout as a manager. Demand for this deal was also stirred by a slower primary market, which
resulted from thin funding gaps in IG and HY corporate-backed CDOs.
3
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
Cash-IG Cash-
Corp Other
11% 15%
Cash-MS B/S Port.
39% 40% Sw ap
45%
Cash-HY
Cash-HY Ln Managed
Bd 29% 15%
6%
Total: $14.3bn Total: $21.9bn
2002 YTD CDO Volume stands at YTD 2002, $14.3bn and $21.9bn of global cash and synthetic CDOs, respectively, have been
$36.2bn, 60% of which is issued (Figure 1). Synthetic issuance has exceeded cash issuance (YTD) at 60% of the total
synthetic
volume. The largest share of cash CDO volume is accounted for by MS CDOs, with 39% of the
total, while HY Loan deals represent the next largest portion, with 29%. Only three HY bond
CDOs—two of which are non-US—have printed this year, therefore accounting for a very
small 6% of total cash CDO issuance. In the synthetic CDO category, portfolio swaps continue
to account for the majority of YTD volume, with a 45% market share. Balance sheet CDOs are
running a close second, at 40% of the synthetic volume YTD. Managed synthetics make up the
remaining 15% of volume, with only three deals closed visibly so far this year.
Six CDOs augment our global The visible pipeline for US deals grew on the week with the addition of three deals—all of
visible CDO pipeline, split evenly them CMBS-backed, multi-sector CDOs. These new announcements include a CDO for
between US and Non-US
Blackrock, which is currently marketing its BB tranche, GMAC’s G-Force III, and an AJAX II
deal for ING Capital Advisors.
One cash CDO and two synthetics were added to the European pipeline this week. Duke Street
Capital is working on its €750 million Duchess II CDO, which will be similar in collateral and
structure to the €750 million Duchess I loan deal (closed last June). On the synthetic side,
Nationwide Building Society is arranging Argon Capital, a GBP1.5 billion partially funded
balance sheet deal that, notably, will be the first public CBO by a building society. Also,
Morgan Stanley is preparing a JPY91 billion deal, referencing 91 Japanese companies in 27
sectors.
4
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
Alternative IG Corp
11% 7%
Loans Cash
Synthetic
40% (# deals)
HY Bonds (# deals)
44%
16% 56%
Multisector
26%
The visible US CDO pipeline remains robust, containing 82 deals for a total notional volume of
$44.0 billion. The visible US cash CDO pipeline currently stands at $18.0 billion (Figure 2),
with HY loan CDOs accounting for a full 40% of the market share and $7.3 billion slated to
come to market. Multi-sector CDOs are a somewhat distant second, with $4.7 billion
accounting for 26% of the pipeline. US synthetic deals occupying our pipeline aggregate about
$26.0 billion, which is 59% of our visible US CDO pipeline. With the addition of three deals,
there are now 48 CDOs occupying the visible European/Asian pipeline—56% of these deals
are synthetic.
Moody’s and Fitch combined for Ratings activity on the week consisted of actions taken on notes from 12 CDOs, as those from
actions on the ratings of 12 CDOs five were downgraded, and notes from seven were placed on review with negative implications.
Moody’s took action on eight CDOs, downgrading notes from three and placing notes from
five deals on review for possible downgrade. Fitch accounted for the balance of the ratings
activity, as they downgraded notes of two deals and also placed notes from two more on Rating
Watch Negative.
Please see the appendix for detailed pricing and ratings information.
Cash flow CDOs are structured to Despite Moody’s 205 CDO tranche downgrades reported in 2001—four times the 2000
withstand a 12-year default (and downgrades—the severity of downgrades in the CDO sector was less than that of the overall
recovery) cycle
corporate collateral sector (in terms of number of notches). Furthermore, cash flow CDOs are
structured to withstand a 12-year default (and recovery) cycle—not just one period. The
empirical average for high yield default indices is between 3% and 4%—depending on the
index—with the better managers outperforming this average. Therefore, we believe that even in
today’s high default environment, the standard 2% base case constant annual default rate
(CADR) used to project losses over the life of a HY bond CDO is reasonable for a deal
managed by a high-quality manager. CDO collateral default statistics provided by Moody’s
CDO indices present empirical evidence that top-tier HY managers have indeed achieved or
improved upon this 2% CADR assumption. Furthermore, despite the low recovery rates
registered in recent quarters—which has been dragged down particularly by the telecom
sector—we expect a reversion to the mean of the 40% area for HY bonds and 70% area for HY
loans.
We expect that 2001 and 2002 will Since early vintage HY bond CDOs are currently being hit by a combination of front-loaded
be the peak years for CDO defaults and record-low recovery rates, we expect that 2001 and 2002 will be the peak years for
downgrades
CDO downgrades. However, we expect long-term CDO downgrade rates to be lower relative to
corporates over the 10–12 year life span of a CDO. Furthermore, with just a few exceptions,
only proven managers with a track record of outperforming these default indices are now
allowed entry into the market, particularly since Sept. 11. Therefore, in our opinion, we can
expect substantially better performance from post-2001 vintage CDOs, particularly when we
factor in the wider funding gaps that are prevalent in these structures and the improved
structural characteristics, which we discuss below.
6
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
Diminimus cushions in key quality Finally, we believe that the historically low HY bond CDO funding gaps prevalent in the 1997–
tests are largely responsible for 99 period resulted in a number of deals having inadequate cushions in critical quality tests.
early vintage downgrades
Effectively, many of these deals would not have been economic without the structuring of small
cushions into critical tests, such as the overcollateralization (O/C) test and Weighted Average
Spread (WAS) test. In the original deals, there was only one O/C calculation for all of the debt.
That evolved into multiple O/C triggers (primarily driven by the fact that with lower yields and
the accrued interest, the single O/C level would be below one). These new triggers were also
set to activate very quickly. If a manager experienced just a few defaults, a deal would begin to
de-lever. Further, deals were marketed using very aggressive assumptions, such as unrealistic
call prices and back-loaded default curves. With substantially improved HY bond CDO
funding gaps prevailing since the second quarter of 2000, there has been little incentive to
structure inadequate cushions in these key quality tests or to make aggressive base case
assumptions. Consequently, newer HY bond deals should have adequate cushions in key tests
and therefore, perform substantially better than 1997–99 vintage deals.
7
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
APPENDIX
Credit Derivatives Flow
235 260
240
215
220
195
200
175
180
155
160
135
140
115
120
95
100
75
80
55
60
35
40
15
20
9/1/00
10/1/00
11/1/00
12/1/00
1/1/01
2/1/01
3/1/01
4/1/01
5/1/01
6/1/01
7/1/01
8/1/01
9/1/01
10/1/01
11/1/01
12/1/01
1/1/02
2/1/02
3/1/02
4/1/02
11/16/00
12/16/00
1/16/01
2/16/01
3/16/01
4/16/01
5/16/01
6/16/01
7/16/01
8/16/01
9/16/01
10/16/01
11/16/01
12/16/01
1/16/02
2/16/02
3/16/02
4/16/02
Source: Banc of America Securities LLC. Source: Banc of America Securities LLC.
8
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
Retailers Eastman Kodak bid 5yr 135 135 135 125 125 (10)
offer 5yr 150 150 150 140 140 (10)
Federated Department Stores bid 5yr 70 70 70 65 65 (5)
offer 5yr 80 80 80 75 75 (5)
Neiman-Marcus bid 5yr 85 85 95 95 95 10
offer 5yr 100 100 115 115 115 15
Nordstrom bid 5yr 80 80 80 80 80 0
offer 5yr 100 100 100 100 100 0
Sears Acceptance bid 5yr 65 65 70 70 70 5
offer 5yr 75 75 80 80 80 5
Toys R Us bid 5yr 300 300 300 280 280 (20)
offer 5yr 340 340 340 320 320 (20)
Technology Compaq Computer bid 5yr 110 110 110 110 110 0
offer 5yr 125 125 125 125 125 0
IBM bid 5yr 50 50 45 45 45 (5)
offer 5yr 55 55 55 55 55 0
Motorola bid 5yr 200 200 205 180 180 (20)
offer 5yr 230 230 240 220 220 (10)
Sun Microsystems bid 5yr 115 115 110 105 105 (10)
offer 5yr 145 145 145 120 120 (25)
Hewlett-Packard bid 5yr 95 95 95 95 95 0
offer 5yr 110 110 110 110 110 0
9
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
40.0
35.0
30.0
Base Case Equity IRR (%)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1/5/01
2/5/01
3/5/01
4/5/01
5/5/01
6/5/01
7/5/01
8/5/01
9/5/01
10/5/01
11/5/01
12/5/01
1/5/02
2/5/02
3/5/02
4/5/02
HY Bonds (2.0% CADR) HY Loans (1.5% CADR)
IG Corporates(0.25% CADR) Multi-Sector (0.25% CADR)
Funding Mix
AAA Notes 70.0 74.0 90.0 85.0
BBB Notes 18.0 16.0 6.0 10.0
Equity 12.0 10.0 4.0 5.0
Assumptions
CADR-base case 2.00 1.50 0.25 0.25
CADR- stressed case 4.00 3.00 1.00 1.00
Recovery Rate 0.40 0.70 0.40 0.50
Ongoing Annual Fees 0.60 0.60 0.40 0.50
Amortiz. Issuance Exp. 0.25 0.25 0.23 0.23
a
50% BB and 50% B HY bonds (BAS Large Cap Index)
b
100% BB/BB– institutional loans (S&P/Portfolio Management Data)
c
95% BBB corporates and 5% BB corporates (BAS Broad Market Index & Large Cap Index)
d
20% BBB HEQ, 10% BBB Equipment, 20% BBB CDOs, 10% BBB CMBS, 10% BBB– CMBS,
10% BB CMBS, 10% BBB RMBS, 10% BBB Corporates.
Source: Banc of America Securities LLC.
11
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
Cash – 3/13/02 ZING IV Zais Group CDOs A1 $535.0 9.6 Aaa AAA L + 40 (wrap), L + 50
Multisector DBAB A–2A 34.0 11.8 Aa3 AA– L + 80
A–2B 12.0 11.8 Aa3 A T + 170, yield 6.96%
B–1 40.0 12 A3 A– L + 150
B–2 32.0 12 A3 A– T + 235, yield 7.61%
C 73.3
$726.3
Cash – 3/14/02 Katonah III CLO Katonah Capital 85% min loans, A $302.0 7.6 Aaa AAA 3mL + 44
HY Loans CSFB 15% max HY bonds B–1 17.0 9.3 A3 A– 3mL + 150
WARF: B1 B–2 23.0 9.3 A3 A– 7.52%
C-1 13.0 9.6 Baa2 BBB 3mL + 240
C-2 4.0 9.6 Baa2 BBB 8.35%
D-1 12.0 9.8 Ba2 BB 3mL + 725
D-2 2.5 9.8 Ba2 BB 13.10%
Equity 32.5
$406.0
Cash – 3/15/02 Samurai CLO Tokyo Star Bank SME Loans to 180 A ¥3,600.0 JPYIRS + 45
Balance Sheet BNP Paribas small and 7 med. B 500.0 JPYIRS + 150
sized enterprises in Tokyo ¥4,100.0
Cash – 3/15/02 Falcon Asset- Gulf International Bank ABS, CMBS, RMBS, A1 €251.0 6.8 Aaa AAA E + 50
Multisector Backed CDO 1 Bear Stearns European CDOs; A2 28.0 7.5 Aa2 E + 80
WARF: 550; B 16.0 7.5 Baa2 E + 225
Div. Score: 550 Equity 12.0
€307.0
Synthetic – 3/18/02 Promise I 2002-1 IKB Deutsche Industriebank SME loans Super Senior €3,200.0
Bal. Sheet Deutsche Bank (KfW's Mittelstand A+ 25.0 Aaa AAA AAA
program) A 91.3 Aaa AAA AAA 3mE + 32
B 60.2 Aa2 AA AA 3mE + 55
C 45.7 A2 A A 3mE + 75
D 51.1 Baa2 BBB BBB 3mE + 170
E 11.5 Ba2 BB BB 3mE + 440
MS 25.0
JS 109.5
€3,619.2
Cash – 3/19/02 Credico Funding Srl ICCREA Italian Co-operative A €742.8 5.7 Aaa AAA 3mE + 23
IG Corps CDC Ixis, SG bank senior debt B 26.7 5.7 AAA 3mE + 33 (retained)
obligations of ICCREA C 26.7 5.7 AA 3mE + 38 (retained)
D 44.5 5.7 A 3mE + 50
E 22.2 5.7 BBB 3mE + 120
Junior 26.7 5.7
€889.6
Cash – 3/19/02 Euromax II MBS SA CIBC World Markets IG CMBS & RMBS A €162.3 AAA 6mE + 38
Multisector B 11.9 A 6mE + 78
C €23.8
€197.9
Cash – 3/20/02 PRETSL-5 First Tennessee Trust Preferred Senior $312.0 Aaa AAA 3mL + 100, 3mL + 80 (wrap)
TruPS Securities Subs 201.0 A3 A– 3mL + 210@99 11/32, yld L + 215
$513.0
Synthetic – 3/21/02 Promise A 2002-1 HypoVereinsbank SME loans Super Senior €1,440.0
Bal. Sheet (KfW's Mittelstand A+ 0.3 Aaa AAA
program) A 64.7 2.2 Aaa AAA 3mE + 30
B 11.0 2.2 Aa1 AA 3mE + 46
C 8.7 2.2 Aa3 A 3mE + 65
D 18.5 2.2 A2 BBB 3mE + 142
E 35.6 2.2 Ba2 BB 3mE + 425
F 11.8 B Privately placed
G 27.5 Retained
€1,618.0
12
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
Cash – 3/27/02 Lafayette BAREP Asset Mgt. 100% sovereigns A $145.1 7.7 Aaa AAA 6mL + 54
EM Debt Sovereign CDO JPMorgan Chase B 13.0 9.5 A3 A– 6mL + 200
C 13.0 9.5 Baa2 BBB 6mL + 300
Sub. 45.5
$216.6
Cash – 3/28/02 Carlyle HY Carlyle Partners 90% leveraged loans, A1 $215.3 7.45 Aaa AAA 3mL + 44
HY Loans Partners IV Wachovia 10% HY Bonds, A1 130.0 7.45 Aaa AAA 3mL + 44
WAR 'B1-B2' A3 40.0 7.45 Aaa AAA 3mL + 44
B 10.0 7.45 A3 A– Swaps + 150 @ 99.99, yld 7.581%
C1 24.5 7.45 Baa1 BBB+ 3mL + 250
C2 22.0 7.45 Baa1 BBB+ 3mL + 223 @ 98.0425
PS 26.0
$467.8
Cash – 4/1/02 Newcastle Newcastle 57% CMBS, I $372.0 8.4 Aaa AAA 3mL + 55
Multisector CDO I (formerly Fortress) 25% REIT debt, II 38.0 10 A3 A S + 160 @ 99.98, yld 7.665%
MSDW 18% ABS/MBS III 34.0 10 Baa2 BBB S + 240 @ 99.95, yld. 8.465%
IV 19.0 10 Ba2 BB Not offered
PS 37.0
$500.0
Cash – 4/1/02 Solstice ABS Rabobank 35% SF CDOs, A1 $237.0 8.6 Aaa AAA 6mL + 50, cpn 46.3 dm
Multisector CDO II CSFB 30% HY bond & A2 96.0 8.6 Aaa AAA 6mL + 50
loan CDOs, B 66.5 10 Aa2 AA N/A
25% ABS/RMBS/CMBS, C 22.0 9.8 Baa2 BBB 6mL + 260, cpn 250 dm
5% EM PS 21.0 Ba3
$442.5
Cash – 4/4/02 Clearwater Atlantic Asset Mgt. 90% IG corporates, A–1A $329.0 8.5 Aaa AAA 6mL + 42
IG Corps Funding 2002-A CSFB 10% HY bonds A–1B 25.0 8.5 Aaa AAA 6mL + 49
A–2 18.5 10 Aa2 AA 6mL + 80
A–3 8.0 10.2 A3 A– 7.62%
B–1 6.0 10.5 Baa2 BBB 6mL + 350
B–2 3.4 10.5 Baa2 BBB 9.42%
PS 13.0
$402.9 3.23%
Synthetic – 4/8/02 EPOCH 2002-1 Morgan Stanley 100% IG credits, 95% US, I $40.0 Aaa AAA 3mL + 60
IG Corps WARF: Baa1 II 22.0 Aa2 AA 3mL + 100
III 10.0 A2 A 3mL + 165
IV 15.0 Baa2 BBB 3mL + 350
V 12.0 Ba2 BB 3mL + 850
Equity 23.0
$122.0
Cash – 4/10/02 G-Star SF CDO GMAC 60% CMBS, 40% IG REIT A–1 $162.0 0.5 P-1 A1+ F1+ L+6
Multisector Goldman Sachs A–2 72.9 7.72 Aaa AAA AAA L + 55
B 23.0 8.25 A3 A– A– L + 140
B(fixed) 27.2 8.25 A3 A– A– S + 148, yld 7.18%
C 16.2 7.73 Ba1 BB+ BB+ S + 637.5, yld 11.317%
D 22.7
$323.9
Cash – 4/11/02 Promus I BV Intermediate Capital Sr. sec loans, A–1 €20.0 9.5 AAA 6mE+ 55
HY Loans Managers Ltd. mezz. Obligations D-2 3.2 10 BBB 6mE + 245
JP Morgan HY debt. €23.2
Cash - 4/16/02 San Miguel CDO PIMCO IG Corporates, WARF: 610 A $193.9 9 Aaa AAA 6mL + 43
IG Corps Lehman (Baa3) B 11.2 10.2 Aa2 AA 6mL + 80
C 11.7 10.5 Baa1 BBB 6mL + 250
PS 13.3
$230.0
Cash – 4/16/02 Ayt. 9 FT-Pymes ICO III ACF-CECA SME loans originated by 9 T1 €28.6 Aaa 6mE + 3
HY Loans Spanish savings banks F1 €7.2 Aa3 6mE + 9
T2 €114.6 Aaa 6mE + 6
F2 €28.7 Aa3 6mE + 45
B €10.4 Ba3 6mE + 50
€189.5
13
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Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
14
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Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
15
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Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
16
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Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
Ratings Assignments
4/4/02 1998 American General CBO 1998-1 American General Investment Mgt. CBO B-1 50.0 BBB– BB+ Fitch
B-2 25.0 BB– B+ Fitch
4/4/02 1995 Alliance Global Diversified Holdings, Ltd. Alliance Capital Mgt. CBO A 115.0 Aa2 A1 Moody's
B 15.0 Baa2 B3 Moody's
4/5/02 1999 FMA CBO Funding II, LP Financial Mgt. Advisors CBO A 251.0 Aaa Aa3 Moody's
B 47.0 A1 Baa3 Moody's
C-1 5.0 Baa3 Caa1 Moody's
C-2 27.0 Baa3 Caa1 Moody's
D 18.0 Ba3 Ca Moody's
4/5/02 1999 Triumph Capital CBO I, Ltd. Alliance Capital Mgt. CBO B-1 35.0 Baa3 B2 Moody's
B-2 22.0 Baa3 B2 Moody's
C-1 13.0 B1 Caa3 Moody's
C-2 3.0 B1 Caa3 Moody's
D 8.0 B3 C Moody's
4/5/02 1997 ML CBO IX Series 1997-AIG-1 Ltd. AIG Global Investment Corp. CBO A 230.5 B3 Caa2 Moody's
4/5/02 1998 ML CLO XIX Sterling Ltd. Sterling Asset Mgt. CLO A-3 54.0 Aa3 A1 Moody's
B-1 22.0 B1 Caa1 Moody's
B-2 25.0 B1 Caa1 Moody's
4/5/02 1999 Centennial CBO Ltd. American Express AM CBO III 33.0 Ba2 B3 Moody's
IV 10.0 Caa2 C Moody's
4/5/02 1999 Admiral CBO (Cayman) Ltd. Delaware Investment Advisors CBO B-1 14.0 BBB B– S&P
B-2 25.0 BBB B– S&P
C 16.0 CCC+ CCC– S&P
4/5/02 1997 Rhyno CBO 1997-1 Delaware Corp. CBO A-3 127.0 A– B S&P
4/9/02 1999 Scala 2 BCI SpA CBO A €30.0 Ba1 Ba3 Moody's
B €7.9 Caa1 Caa2 Moody's
C €10.4 Caa2 Ca Moody's
4/9/02 1998 Isles CBO Ltd. American Express AM CBO 2nd priority €62.5 B1 Caa2 Moody's
Sr. Sub €10.0 Caa3 Ca Moody's
4/9/02 1999 Juniper CBO 1999-1 Wellington Management Co. CBO A-1 134.0 AAA A+ S&P
A-2 34.0 AAA BBB+ S&P
A-3A 60.0 BBB– CCC– S&P
A-3B 40.0 BBB– CCC– S&P
4/9/02 1998 Adams Street CBO 1998-1 Scudder Kemper Investments CBO A-2A 155.3 AAA BBB+ Fitch
A-2B 28.7 AAA BBB+ Fitch
A-3 24.0 BBB+ BB Fitch
B 31.0 BB C Fitch
4/9/02 1998 Stellar Funding CBO Northstar Investment Management CBO A-3 186.2 A– CCC Fitch
A-4 48.0 B– CC Fitch
4/9/02 1997 CypressTree Investment Partners I, Ltd. CypressTree Investment Management CLO Sub. 57.5 BBB– B– Fitch
4/10/02 1998 Fortwirth CDO Ltd. (formerly Aeltus CBO IV) Aeltus Investment Management CBO B 34.7 Ba2 B3 Moody's
4/12/02 1998 Magnus Funding Ltd. Shenkman Capital Management CBO A 202.0 A1 Ba3 Moody's
B 34.5 Ba3 C Moody's
C 28.0 Caa2 C Moody's
4/15/02 1999 MINCS - Pilgrim I Ltd. 2nd. Priority 66.0 BBB CC Fitch
4/16/02 1998 Nantucket CBO, Ltd. PIMCO CBO Sr. Sec. 57.0 Aa3 A1 Moody's
2nd. Priority 15.0 B3 Ca Moody's
4/17/02 2001 Helix Capital (Netherlands) BV 2001-9 BAS BBB BBB– Fitch
4/18/02 1999 Cedar CBO Ltd. American Express AM CBO II 46.0 Aa3 A1 Moody's
III 52.0 B1 B2 Moody's
IV 20.0 Ca C Moody's
4/18/02 2000 South Street CBO 2000-1 Colonial Advisory Services CBO B-2 4.9 Ba3 Caa1 Moody's
17
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
2/14/02 2002 Duchess I CO S.A. Duke St. Capital Mgmt. B €9.0 BB BB+ S&P
3/25/02 1997 Alliance Holdings International Alliance Capital Mgmt. CBO 120.0 Baa2 Baa1 Moody's
3/28/02 Korea Credit Guarantee CBO Ltd. KDB Bank CBO Notes Baa2 A3 Moody's
3/28/02 1997 First Emerging Markets CBO, Ltd. ANZ Emerging Markets CBO Sr Sec. 92.0 A2 A1 Moody's
18
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
4/4/02 1996 Global Diversified CBO, Ltd. Alliance Capital Mgt. CBO Sr. Sec. 87.5 Aa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
2nd priority 20.4 Baa3 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/4/02 1998 American General CBO 1998-1 American General Invest. Mgt. CBO A-3A 4.0 A– Fitch Affirm
A-3B 15.0 A– Fitch Affirm
4/5/02 1999 Admiral CBO (Cayman) Ltd. Delaware Investment Advisors CBO A-1 171.5 AAA S&P Affirm
A-2 47.5 AA S&P Affirm
4/5/02 1998 Pacific Life CBO 1998-1 Pacific Life Insurance Co. CBO A-1 AAA S&P Neg. Watch
A-2A AAA S&P Neg. Watch
A-2B AAAr S&P Neg. Watch
A-2C AAA S&P Neg. Watch
A-3 BBB S&P Neg. Watch
4/5/02 1997 Rhyno CBO 1997-1 Delaware Corp. CBO A-1 58.0 AAA S&P Affirm
A-2 130.0 AAA S&P Affirm
4/5/02 1999 Centennial CBO Ltd. American Express AM CBO II-A 20.0 Aa3 Moody's Neg. Watch
II-B 14.0 Aa3 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/5/02 1999 Clydesdale CBO I Ltd. NCRAM CBO B 47.0 Baa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
C-1 4.0 Ba3 Moody's Neg. Watch
C-2 15.0 Ba3 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/5/02 1999 HarbourView CBO I Ltd. HarbourView Asset CBO B-1 20.0 Baa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
Management B-2 10.0 Baa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
C-1 16.0 Ba2 Moody's Neg. Watch
C-2 2.0 Ba2 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/9/02 1999 Dresdner RCM Dresdner RCM CBO B-1 30.0 Baa3 Moody's Neg. Watch
Caywood Scholl CBO I Global Investors B-2 18.0 Baa3 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/9/02 1998 Isles CBO Ltd. American Express AM CBO A-1 €30.0 Aa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
A-2 235.0 Aa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/9/02 1999 Juniper CBO 1999-1 Wellington Management Co. CBO A-1L 153.0 AAA S&P Affirm
4/9/02 1997 CypressTree Investment CypressTree CLO B-1 100.0 AA Fitch Affirm
Partners I, Ltd. Investment Management B-2 115.6 AA Fitch Affirm
4/12/02 2000 Eurostar I CDO DWS Finanz-Service GmbH A-3 AA Fitch Neg. Watch
B BBB– Fitch Neg. Watch
C B Fitch Neg. Watch
4/12/02 1999 SCM Communications Shenkman Capital CBO A 279.0 Aa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
CBO I Ltd. Management B-1 13.0 Baa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
C 16.0 Ba2 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/15/02 1999 SEQUILS - Pilgrim I Ltd. Sr. Sec. 388.0 AA Fitch Affirm
4/16/02 1998 Shyppco Finance Company LLC MBIA Capital Mgmt. CBO A-2B 123.0 Moody's Neg. Watch
A-2C 55.0 Moody's Neg. Watch
A-3 62.0 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/16/02 1999 ML CBO XXIV Ltd. Fountain Capital Management CBO B 45.0 Baa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/17/02 1998 Halyard CBO I Ltd. Ghent Asset Management CBO B 12.7 Baa2 Moody's Neg. Watch
C 12.7 Ba3 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/17/02 1998 Pacific Life CBO 1998-1 Pacific Life Insurance Co. CBO A-2A AAA Fitch Neg. Watch
A-2B AAA Fitch Neg. Watch
A-2C AAA Fitch Neg. Watch
A-3 A– Fitch Neg. Watch
B BB– Fitch Neg. Watch
4/18/02 1999 Cedar CBO Ltd. American Express AM CBO I 230.0 Aaa Moody's Neg. Watch
4/18/02 2000 Caravelle Investment Fund II, LLC Caravelle Investment Advisors MV CDO E 16.5 B2 Moody's Neg. Watch
4/18/02 2000 Eurostar I CDO DWS Finanz-Service GmbH A-1 34.3 Aaa Moody's Neg. Watch
A-2 105.9 Aaa Moody's Neg. Watch
4/18/02 2000 JWS CBO 2000-1 Ltd. J. & W. Seligman & Co. CBO D 23.3 BB– Fitch Neg. Watch
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
12/31/99
1/31/00
2/29/00
3/31/00
4/30/00
5/31/00
6/30/00
7/31/00
8/31/00
9/30/00
10/31/00
11/30/00
12/31/00
1/31/01
2/28/01
3/31/01
4/30/01
5/31/01
6/30/01
7/31/01
8/31/01
9/30/01
10/31/01
11/30/01
12/31/01
1/31/02
2/28/02
A BBB 3/31/02
Sources: Bloomberg and Banc of America Securities LLC.
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
12/31/99
1/31/00
2/29/00
3/31/00
4/30/00
5/31/00
6/30/00
7/31/00
8/31/00
9/30/00
10/31/00
11/30/00
12/31/00
1/31/01
2/28/01
3/31/01
4/30/01
5/31/01
6/30/01
7/31/01
8/31/01
9/30/01
10/31/01
11/30/01
12/31/01
1/31/02
2/28/02
3/31/02
BB B
20
Banc of America Securities
Structured Credit Strategy Weekly, April 19, 2002
21
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