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To learn more about the challenges and opportunities ahead for the entertainment and media industry, please visit pwc.com/e&m.
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Each year, PricewaterhouseCoopers global team of entertainment and media experts generates unbiased, in-depth forecasts for 13 industry segments. Incorporating data from 4 principal regions comprising 48 countries and areas around the world, Global entertainment and media outlook: 20102014 combines deep knowledge of local markets with a truly global perspective a powerful tool for understanding critical business issues.
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Authored by:
Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc., a provider of global research and analysis of the media, entertainment, and telecommunications industries. www.wilkofskygruen.com
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This document is provided by PricewaterhouseCoopers for general guidance only and does not constitute the provision of legal advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation.
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The information is provided as is, with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and tness for a particular purpose.
Copyright 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. PricewaterhouseCoopers refers to the network of member rms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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Permission to cite
No part of this publication may be excerpted, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or distributed or transmitted in any form or by any means including electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or scanning without the prior written permission of PricewaterhouseCoopers. Requests should be submitted in writing to Radhika Nanda at radhika.nanda@uk.pwc.com outlining the excerpts you wish to use along with a draft copy of the full report that the excerpts will appear in. Provision of this information is necessary for every citation request to enable PricewaterhouseCoopers to assess the context in which the excerpts are being presented. Without limiting the foregoing, you may not use excerpts from the publication in nancial prospectus documents, public offerings, private placement memoranda, lings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, annual reports, or similar nancial, investment, or regulatory documents. ISBN 978-1-931684-21-7 Global entertainment and media outlook: 20102014, Industry overview ISBN 978-1-931684-22-4 Global entertainment and media outlook: 20102014
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David Wilkofsky, Partner Arthur Gruen, Partner Norman D. Eisenberg, Vice President Victor Teppeh, Senior Economist
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Introduction letter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
pwc.com/outlook
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Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
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Industry overview
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Marcel Fenez
marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com
kenneth.j.sharkey@us.pwc.com tracey.l.jennings@ca.pwc.com
EMEA
Western Europe
Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Eddy Dams John Gabriel Srensen Harri Valkonen Franois Antarieu Frank Mackenroth Dinos Michalatos Susan Kilty Andrea Samaja Sander Kranenburg Eivind Nilsen
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Phil Stokes
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Petr Zmatlik Manfred Krawietz Pawel Ozarowski Dinu Bumbacea Chris Monteleone Coskun Sen
Middle East/Africa
Israel Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab South Africa
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.
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Austria
Johannes Mrtl
johannes.moertl@at.pwc.com eddy.dams@be.pwc.com john.gabriel.sorensen@dk.pwc.com harri.valkonen@.pwc.com francois.antarieu@fr.pwc.com frank.mackenroth@de.pwc.com dinos.michalatos@gr.pwc.com susan.kilty@ie.pwc.com andrea.samaja@it.pwc.com sander.kranenburg@nl.pwc.com eivind.nilsen@no.pwc.com jose.vitorino@pt.pwc.com virginia.arce@es.pwc.com nicklas.kullberg@se.pwc.com patrick.balkanyi@ch.pwc.com phil.stokes@uk.pwc.com
Asia Pacic
Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Steven Bosiljevac Marcel Fenez Marcel Fenez Timmy Kandhari Rizal Satar Hideaki Zenba Uthaya Kumar Grant Dennis Sohail Hasan Mary Jade T. Roxas Greg Unsworth Hum-Seok Park Han Wu Kajornkiet Aroonpirodkul Ian Lydall steven.bosiljevac@au.pwc.com marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com timmy.s.kandhari@in.pwc.com rizal.satar@id.pwc.com hideaki.zenba@jp.pwc.com uthaya.kumar@my.pwc.com
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Ariel Vidan
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Latin America
Estela Vieira
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Industry overview
June 2010
To our clients and friends both in and beyond the entertainment and media industry:
During 2009, the economy took center stage. With only a few exceptions, economic recession translated into steep declines in advertising as well as reduced consumer spending. Against that backdrop, it became clear that the speed with which consumers were transitioning to digital was accelerating beyond the industrys expectations. This years Outlook focuses on the pervasive impact of this changing consumer behavior on all segments of the E&M industry as companies search for position in the digital value chain that is now taking shape. With the business models that will deliver success in the digital future yet to emerge, that search for positioning is characterized by widespread experimentation and innovation, involving a widening diversity of service offerings, revenue models, technology platforms, and collaborative structures. Notwithstanding our forecast that the E&M industrys growth will be concentrated in digital services, nondigital revenue streams are much larger and will still account for two-thirds of total global spending in 2014. This means that the way forward for E&M companies lies in using digital technologies to generate revenues from the ongoing changes in consumer behavior while simultaneously maintaining and supporting legacy nondigital offerings as a valuable source of cash and customers.
Finally, we thank you for your support and wish you an exciting and rewarding year ahead.
Sincerely,
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All of us at PricewaterhouseCoopers continue to stay on top of trends and developments that may impact your business now and in the future, and we look forward to further sharing our thoughts with you. We appreciate your feedback and ask that you continue to tell us what we can do to make the Outlook more useful to you. If you wish additional clarication on any matters included in the Outlook or you believe we can be of service to your business in any way, please either contact one of the PricewaterhouseCoopers E&M professionals listed on pages 4 and 5 or visit our Web site (www.pwc.com/e&m) for details of the contact in your territory.
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We continue to see that the impact of digital migration differs between segments and geographies during the forecast period, due in large part to the relative availability and affordability of broadband and mobile infrastructure. The emerging-market growth story remains as valid an opportunity as ever.
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Welcome to the 11th annual edition of PricewaterhouseCoopers Global entertainment and media outlook, covering the forecast period of outlook, 20102014. Our forecasts and analyses for this edition focus on 13 major entertainment and media (E&M) industry segments. To reect the ever-changing nature of the industry, as well as ever-emerging digital revenue streams, we have again increased the depth of data for each of the 48 countries and areas covered in the Outlook. We have this year also introduced an online version of the Outlook in order to . provide more exibility for the user of the underlying data.
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Introduction
We are pleased to present the 11th edition of PricewaterhouseCoopers Global entertainment and media outlook. The information in this publication reects the collective wisdom of our large team of professionals who work with entertainment and media (E&M) companies around the world. It is a unique resource for the industry, offering a ve-year outlook for global consumer spending and advertising revenues, as well as insights into the technology, government, political, and business trends driving those forecasts. The purpose of this Industry Overview is to provide a synopsis of the data presented in the 20102014 Outlook and to present a thought piece on ideas generated by the data in the full book. by-country breakouts of number of video-on-demand homes and number of mobile TV subscribers. In Internet access, we provide country-by-country breakouts of mobile Internet subscribers.
Categories covered
Internet access spending: wired and mobile Internet advertising: wired and mobile Television advertising Recorded music Video games Television subscriptions and license fees
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Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business
Regions/countries covered
North America Canada United States EMEA
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Out-of-home advertising
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Filmed entertainment
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Asia Pacic Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam
Western Europe Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom
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Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Russia Turkey Middle East/Africa Israel Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab South Africa
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.
Segment
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TV advertising
Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio Out-of-home advertising Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business Total Broadcast advertising only.
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In addition to the impact of the economy, the E&M market continued to migrate to digital formats. In 2009, digital accounted for 24 percent of spending, up from 21 percent in 2008. In absolute terms, digital spending increased by 10.2 percent despite the recession, while nondigital spending fell by 6.4 percent. In last years Outlook, we projected the digital market to constitute 31 percent of total spending by 2013. We now expect that share to be nearly 32 percent in 2013, rising to 33 percent by 2014. Nondigital spending began declining in 2008, and we expect a further drop in 2010. While the economic recovery will help the nondigital components of the
market, nondigital spending growth will remain modest, and digital will continue to be the principal driver. During the next ve years, digital spending will increase at a projected 12.1 percent compound annual rate compared with 2.6 percent compound annual growth for nondigital spending. The impact of the migration to digital spending is of course more pronounced in markets where broadband access is most ubiquitous. In such markets as India, where broadband is less widely available and is relatively expensive, nondigital spending such as on newspapers continues to grow.
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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Note: Digital spending consists of broadband and mobile access; wired and mobile Internet advertising; video on demand; mobile TV subscriptions; online and mobile TV advertising; digital recorded music distribution; online movie subscription rentals and digital downloads; online and wireless video games; digital advertising in newspapers and consumer magazines; satellite radio subscriptions and online radio advertising; electronic consumer and educational and professional books; digital directory advertising; and trade magazine digital advertising.
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30 20 10 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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Digital Nondigital
Toward 2014: the search for position in the digital value chain
The coming ve years will see digital technologies progressively increase their dominance across all segments of entertainment and media as digital transformation continues to expand and escalate. While the industry has a long history of experimenting and fragmenting in response to change, the current advances in technologies and consumer behavior are unprecedented in both their speed and their simultaneous impact across all segments. No clear and sustainable path to success in this changed environment has yet emerged. Companies across the industry are still in the process of embedding digital strategies and skills into their organizations, and many providers of comparable services are pursuing widely differing revenue modelswith the jury still out on which ones will be successful. In this Industry Overview, we look to set the context for the detailed forecasts in the Outlook. In part one, we outline three key issues at the heart of industry developments: the accelerating pace of digital transformation, increased fragmentation, and the need to sustain nondigital revenues. These issues all point to the major driver currently emerging as companies core focus: ongoing evolution in consumer behavior. In part two of this overview, we examine three themes through which consumer change is making itself felt. In part three, we analyze the impact of evolving consumer behavior on the industrys business models. Finally, we focus on what all of it means for E&M companies in the long term, and we highlight the imperatives created by the new digital value chain. through of lmed entertainment DVDs would decline by 3.9 percent in 2009 and 0.3 percent in 2010. Those declines accelerated sharply to 5.9 percent in 2009, and we expect an additional 1.5 percent in 2010, with consumers switching to digital downloading and ondemand consumption much more quickly than we had expected just one year ago. Other ongoing developments also highlight the oftenunexpected speed with which consumers are embracing new media experiences. In the rst three months of 2010, 428,000 subscribers to UK satellite pay-TV service BSkyB paid to upgrade their service to high denition (HD)a take-up rate about one-third faster than many analysts forecasts. This gave Sky 2.5 million HD households, more than a quarter of its total customer base.
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We predicted in last years Outlook that the recession would accelerate and intensify the industrys ongoing migration toward end-to-end digital value chains, but in fact the pace of change has proved to be even quicker than we anticipated. Todays E&M environment is one in which it is very easy to get surprised by the pace of developments, even if youve already predicted the direction of travel correctly. To pick an example from our research, we projected in last years Outlook that the value of global physical sell-
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Fragmentation reaches a new level The rapidly advancing digital transformation is driving industry and audience fragmentations to levels not previously seen. E&M has always tended to fragment under the impact of shifts in technology and consumption habits. However, the current wave of change is of different magnitude from previous ones, in both its speed and its simultaneous impact across all segments. For example, in recent decades, television has progressed from a handful of analog channels to a multiplicity of niche and themed channels, fragmenting the audience in the process. Now, with digitization, those niche content experiences are becoming available across a widening array of platforms and devices, driving audience fragmentation both further and faster.
The idea of getting a TV schedule and watching things when they are on is getting alien to my kids. They tend to do it on demand or buy DVDs. Yes, things are changing.
London, 45-year-old
Another aspect of the fragmentation is that consumers media consumption and purchasing decisions differ widely at different times in different markets. In every segment
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there are regional and country variations in current market size and future growth, reecting local factors around infrastructure, access availability, and consumer behavior. The mobile Internet explosion has already happened in Japan, which accounted for some 53 percent of global spending on mobile Internet access in 2009. Other markets are still at the bottom of their growth curves. While perceived by many as a threat, inevitable and ongoing fragmentation will need to be seized upon as an opportunity: creative partnerships and innovative products will be required to cater to the prospect. The importance of nondigital revenues Not surprisingly, digital services will provide most of the industrys future growtha prospect reected by the fact that digital technologies are now effectively a given in all segments. But it is vital to remember that legacy off-line revenue streams are still signicantly larger than digital revenues and will remain so throughout the ve-year forecast period. This means the industry needs to ensure it embraces digital not as a competitor to traditional analog services but as a complement.
So, E&M companies need to strike the right balance between old and new, by nurturing and sustaining their cash-generative traditional offerings while using these revenues to identify and seize the right role and positioning for their businesses within the emerging digital value chains. The challenge of striking the right balance is increased by the fact that the growth potential of different online and off-line offerings varies in different markets. For example, newspaper print advertising will rise in India at 12.8 percent compounded annually through the forecast period, while it will be at globally. In many cases, digital revenues are also relatively small, even if they are where the growth is. Electronic educational books will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.5 percent globally through the forecast period (and at 70.7 percent compounded annually in Asia Pacic), yet they will still account for less than 6 percent of global spend on educational books in 2014. Interestingly, the key role that was initially played by the Amazon Kindle in driving this growth could be taken up and accelerated by the Apple iPad or similar devices.
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I love my TV series, and we leave Facebook status comments: Watch this, dont watch that. Ive introduced a lot of my friends to the series Californication.
Capetown, 19-year-old
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It is also signicant that, following the launch of each new wave of technological innovationsmartphones a few years ago, and tablets or netbooks todaythe industry must rst establish how consumers respond to and use these new offerings, before it can be certain about the right service, pricing, and revenue models. Consumer responses are still evolving The challenges are increased by the fact that consumers responses to new offerings and experiences have yet to stabilize and in fact are continuing to evolve. Following are three examples. Boosting content consumption: Far from undermining existing and traditional content, advances in digital technology can actually reestablish and restore contents value for consumers. For example, consumers who are early adopters of tablets have told PricewaterhouseCoopers that these devices are prompting them to read more and to access more content, thereby suggesting we could see a revival in book reading. Similarly, HDTV is supporting television revenues, 3-D is boosting lm, and authorized music sites are steadily restoring the value of recorded music that was lost to illegal peer-to-peer downloading. In each case, digital innovation in devices and applications is enhancing the experience of the consumption of content.
The devices I own are the computer, the Wii that I love to play with my grandchildren, and of course I have a cell phone, TV, and DVD. Im planning on buying a netbook that I can carry for traveling.
Chicago, 60-year-old
Digital consumption extends across generations: More-mature demographics are becoming increasingly enthusiastic adopters of new modes of digital consumption. Recent industry gures show that people over 45 years old account for 42 percent of users on Facebook. The rise of the older digital community is taking the revenue and market potential of new services into new demographic and content areas. Three themes of consumer inuence With consumers responses still evolving, its up to companies in the industry to anticipate and identify where theyre heading, and give consumers what they want or what they will want once they experience it. Over the coming ve years, we believe, the force exerted by changing consumer behavior will make itself felt through three themes: Theme 1: The rising power of mobility and mobile devices Theme 2: The growing dominance of the Internet experience over all content consumption Theme 3: Increasing engagement and readiness to pay for contentdriven by improved consumption experiences and convenience In the rest of this Industry Overview, we examine those three themes in greater detail, drawing on ndings from PricewaterhouseCoopers Global entertainment and media outlook: 20102014, together with other insights from our varied experience and ongoing research across the E&M industry.
Willingness to pay: Similarly, many users of previously free ad-funded online content services have proved ready and willing to switch to paying for an ad-free variant under a so-called freemium model (a business model that works by offering basic services for free while charging a premium for advanced or special features). Pioneered by the likes of Flickr, freemium is now used by such online music services as Pandora. The success of Zyngas well-known social games such as Farmville and Maa Wars lies in Zyngas ability to create consumer stickiness by offering the games for free while earning revenue from microtransactions for virtual goods. The rise of freemium conrms that high-quality, licensed services can be more attractive to consumers than unlicensed peer-to-peer alternatives are.
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Theme 1: The rising power of mobility and mobile devices Mobile comes of age in 201011 The rising penetration by smartphones and other Internetenabled devicessupported by advanced infrastructure and enriched by a growing array of mobile applications, or appsmeans the tipping point is fast approaching at which mobile content will explode as a revenue generator. In some markets this has already happened. In Japan, for example, more than 60 percent of total Internet access spending in 2009 was generated through mobile devices. But even in less-mature mobile markets, consumer expectations of what a mobile device can do have soared beyond basic cell phone functionality and will continue to escalate, driving the ongoing convergence of a wide array of functions and media consumption choices on handheld devices. In the next ve years, the industry will need to meet and surpass consumers demand for sophisticated, multifunctional devices that keep them connected, entertained, and informed in markets across the world.
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Working together, device, application, and content providers will meet that demand by embedding and progressively enhancing a growing array of features including offering Internet connectivity at ever-higher bandwidths, supporting an ever-wider array of content, and gaining rising functionality through design advances and the increasing range of apps available for smartphones and other mobile devices. In South Korea, more than 20 million people watched television on mobile devices in 2009. By 2014, the number will exceed 30 million. Todays consumers are already eagerly anticipating the day when their mobile devices can function as allencompassing, multifunctional mini PCs or TVs, and by 2014 or earlierin some markets at leastconsumers will get their wish.
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Personally, I use my iPhone all the time for everything. Its sort of changed my life, really.
The accompanying chart illustrates the potential of mobile revenues by comparing ve-year compound annual growth in mobile Internet subscribers in various countries with ve-year CAGR for mobile Internet content and advertising revenues in the same markets. As shown, mobile content and advertising revenues are rapidly outpacing subscriber growth in markets where mobile Internet access is mature, such as Japan and South Korea. We would expect to see this pattern repeating itself in other markets as mobile Internet infrastructure and penetration advance. Globally, nearly 500 million people were accessing the Internet through mobile devices in 2009, up from only 100 million as recently as 2005. We project that by 2014, that total will rise to 1.4 billion. Mobile will be driven further and faster by NGNs As mobile revenues take off, we believe each market will eventually reach a tipping point where usage, subscription, and advertising revenues for content services migrate quickly toward mobile platforms. PricewaterhouseCoopers ongoing focus-group-based consumer research underlines the changes in behaviors and aspirations that will drive that migration. As well as wanting greater functionality in their mobile devices, consumers tell us they want apps that make their lives easier in three ways:
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United States
Japan
Italy
South Korea
Personally: by providing compelling entertainment and useful information and offering personal lifestyle, productivity, and well-being benets Professionally: by interfacing with their work computers and helping them manage both their workplace and nancial needs Prudently: by consumers believing the technology is readily available and that the applications should be free or at least inexpensive A particular driver that will enable mobile device and content providers to generate revenues by meeting those requirements is the ongoing rollout of high-bandwidth next-generation networks (NGNs) for mobilethird generation and higher. As markets with huge secondgeneration subscriber bases move to third generation, NGNs will continue driving mobile take-up because of the superior user experience that they enable, in turn accelerating mobile data and advertising and blurring the distinction between online and mobile apps. Loyalty shifts from service provider to device, and, ultimately, to the brand
Every time they bring out a new phone, I think I would probably upgrade, because battery life, processor speed, and a better interface are a benet to me. Its all about what it does for me and how well it works.
London, 45-year-old
viewpoints of many consumers today, what matters more than an open or closed system is the availability of thirdparty apps and superfast mobile broadband on a device they nd easy to use. With those elements in place, investment in innovation by third-party app developers helps build loyalty and usage for the device itselfa winwin for the device manufacturers. Theme 2: The growing dominance of the Internet experience over all content consumption Using the Internetby clicking on hyperlinks, searching, communicating, socializing, and displaying contenthas now become one of the great unifying experiences shared by billions of people across the world. Increasingly, the consumer has moved beyond thinking of the Internet as an end in itself and expects all forms of media to embed the convenience, immediacy, and interactivity of the Internet. With the emergence of new generations of tablets and netbooks, the unied Internet-based consumption experience has taken another step forward. While Amazons Kindle was initially aimed at displaying
The expanding functionality of mobile devices is also fueling another signicant shift. The focus of consumers brand loyalty and trust is moving away from the service or content provider and attaching itself ever more closely to the device itself and the devices underlying content. The importance of the device brand represents a break from previous waves of consumer technology. Consumers today relate to iPods, not generic portable music players; to iPhones or BlackBerrys, not generic smartphones; and to Kindles and iPads, not generic electronic readers. In previous generations, the device itself was more important than the brand of the device. Moreover, those systems were open and interoperable; VCRs could play all VHS cassettes, and CD players could play any CD recording.
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Open or closed systems? In contrast, many of the current generations of devices and, notably, the iPod and iPhoneare proprietary systems. The competition between the iPhone and Googles open-system Android-based Droid will provide a pointer as to whether closed or open systems will ultimately prevail. Our ongoing research with focus groups suggests that consumers will want to share content and applications across all their devices. However, from the
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I basically think that movies are going to be stored in one location at your home and you can just transmit them to any media that you own, whether it be a laptop or a PC, desktop, or your TV or your cell phone, wireless. You can just push a button and the movie shows up on whatever you send it to.
Los Angeles, 28-year-old
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This trend is becoming more evident in television with the new generation of Web-enabled TV. The advancement of the device itself coupled with upgrades in the infrastructure will be the catalyst for new forms of television consumption that will enable consumers to stream or download content whenever they want it, run applications, play games, and, ultimately, view content on any device. Similarly, the trends will also migrate to other forms of content: lms, radio, books, and video games. NGN will not only increase the volume of content accessible through the Internet but also potentially eliminate the need to maintain a physical library of content. Convergence of devices will therefore be accompanied by convergence of content through a digital locker. The move to a digital locker may ultimately be hampered by the industrys concerns over piracy; however, our view is that over time, the convenience and quality of authorized services may reduce the attractiveness of pirated content in most markets, though the process will clearly take a long time in such countries as China. A further factor is that content that is currently charged for via authorized sites may be offered for free, as different revenue models get brought in.
electronic books, such devices as the Apple iPad have the functionality needed to attract magazine readers, with capabilities like color and support for WiFi and third generation. A growing number of news and magazine publishers have already put content apps on the US iPad store. And in December 2009, Time, Inc.; Cond Nast; Meredith; Hearst; and News Corp. jointly created a digital storefront for their magazine titles. No segment of E&M will be immune to blurring with the Internet. This trend will be further accentuated with the deployment of various national NGNs around the world. With theoretical speeds of up to 100 megabits per second,
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this upgrade in infrastructure will not only provide greater access to video and interactive content but also accelerate digital migration.
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Theme 3: Increasing engagement and readiness to pay for contentdriven by improved consumption experiences and convenience Experience drives revenue In a media world of expanding choice and rising speed, the quality, convenience, and pricing of the consumption experience will be the key determinants of the consumers level of engagement with a content service. That engagement will in turn shape the providers ability to charge the consumer for accessing the service. Experience shows that consumers will pay for easy-to-use, high-quality, relevant services, even if there are free, lessreliable alternatives available. A key trigger in achieving critical-mass take-up is hitting the right price pointsuch as the 99-cent track from iTunes. The content proposition
becomes all the more compelling when it delivers an experience that cannot easily be reproduced elsewhere, such as movies in 3-D, sport on HDTV, or a live concert. Consumers will increasingly accept that personal engagement with content demands a premium, and theyll be willing to pay for it. The recorded music industry has evolved within a few years from a segment dominated by physical products and supply chains to one whose rising share of revenues is generated by live concerts. Record labels have responded by participating in live-concert revenue streams through full-service 360-degree deals with artists. However, as ever, generalizations are dangerous. In 2009, sales of recorded music in Asia Pacic staged a stunning reversal, turning a 3.4 percent decrease in 2008 into a 9.0 percent gain in 2009, as authorized spending on digital music surged in South Korea and Japan.
While advertising revenues in the markets hardest hit by the recent turbulence have steadied and even staged a modest rebound, their recovery remains fragile and will generally not see advertising spend return to former levels. In the United States, for example, advertising in 2014 will still be 9 percent below its level in 2006. Such projections reect the fact that the behavioral changes seen among consumers in recent yearssuch as migration toward mobile news and entertainment, increasing use of online shopping and price comparison sites, and enthusiastic engagement with online communitieshave been matched by advertisers, which are trying to keep pace with consumers shifting attention.
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Global advertising shares (%)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Other Television Internet
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
While brands will continue to use traditional advertising platforms such as magazines, radio, and TV, they are also actively seeking new ways to engage with consumers. So, advertising spend is undergoing a long-term shift toward total marketing or total brand communication, with companies changing their focus from advertising on a medium to marketing through and with content. For example, the James Bond movie Quantum of Solace reportedly earned a record $75 million from product placement, and industry estimates put product placement in movies globally at $1.8 billion in 2010, more than double its level in 2005.
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Going forward, the introduction of cross-platform services such as TV Everywherean offering from the US cable industry, enabling subscribers to access TV content over multiple platformswill further blur the division between television and Internet advertising while supporting their combined domination of the advertising market. In 2005, television and the Internet together constituted 40.7 percent of total global advertising spend, but by 2014 they will account for 56.3 percent, largely at the expense of print advertising.
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Convenience pays off A further important driver in convincing consumers to pay is convenience. In that regard, the exibility, scale, and accessibility of cloud computing are proving to be powerful assets for E&M offerings. In March 2010, online music service MOG launched new mobile applications offering US mobile subscribers the ability to stream songs on both iPhones and Android devices for $10 a month twice the price of its desktop-only service. In offering ubiquitous on-demand access to a large library of songs, MOG joined competitors Thumbplay and Rhapsody in the US. Spotify offers a similar service in Europe. As this shows, many content services are now focusing on models that are end-user supported via either pure subscription or hybrid models such as freemium, which limits exposure to any one model by uniting different revenue streams. A further example of innovative hybrid models is the growth in social gaming on such sites as Facebook and MySpace, where the games are given free and the developers gain revenues through microtransactions and advertising. Going hyperlocal to boost engagement Location-based services will represent a further element of the drive to boost convenience and increase consumers engagement with content services, thereby enhancing providers ability to charge. Hyperlocal servicesmade possible by the addressability of Internetbased distribution or by using location-based mobile technologywill give consumers access to valuable local news and information while also enabling businesses to promote advertising to consumers who either live locally or happen to be in the area at the time.
Media consumption returns to being a collective social experience A parallel trend around engagement is the growing resocialization of the media consumption experience. Reading books or newspapers has historically been something people do alone. Television has headed the same way in recent years, with the advent of multichannel fragmentation and multiset households. But now the combination of digital access, mobility, and social networking is seeing consumption of all forms of media migrate from being solo activities toward being social experiences, as viewers discuss and share content via their social networks and mobile devices as well as in physical groups. Going forward, this activity will increasingly take place on a single device, such as a Web-enabled TV.
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Id rather chat on the Xbox online with friends. Sometimes, if theres a TV program we like, we keep the Xbox on, and we can talk to each other in the chatroom while were watching it. So it feels like were watching it together.
London, 14-year-old
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More generally, companies across all segments of E&M are seeking to create and then monetize richer and more-compelling consumer experiences that cannot be reproduced in other environments. Movies have shifted to 3-D, thereby sustaining box ofce attendance, enabling theaters to charge higher prices, and countering the threat from online downloading onto PCs. Television broadcasters are ghting off the threat from the wide availability of free and pervasive online video content by launching HD servicesand in some cases monetizing HD successfully as a paid-for upgrade.
More generally, pervasive Internet-based distribution and location-based services will increase interactivity, measurement, and addressability. In combination, these will enable more-accurate capture and segmentation of the audience for a piece of content and will support moretargeted and more-customized advertising campaigns that can command premium rates. However, rising usage of addressable advertising may intensify some consumers concerns and sensitivities around privacy. This is a major reputational challenge for E&M companies globally but is generally more of an issue for consumers in more-mature demographic groups. Experience and research in many markets suggest that younger consumers are generally more accepting of the idea of providing personal information in return for a better, more relevant, and more convenient service experience.
In addition, other media will gain similar social interaction capabilities. Video games dedicated core audience has already made this leap. With the right secure-payment models in place, such content as movies and books will be shared, consumed, and discussed simultaneously via online communities by people in different places. Magazines and newspaperswhich will increasingly offer online video as part of their experiencecan also build strong social networks, with consumers interacting and discussing within the context of the content.
result can be a net decline in revenue. Digital end-user prices tend also to be lower than those on traditional platforms, so a move from traditional to digital has a similarly negative impact. This means companies are ghting for a larger slice of a shrinking pie, and the challenge for content providers is to monetize rising digital consumption more effectively. While digital distribution provides a number of cost savings lower manufacturing costs, savings on shipping, and reduced inventory management and returns coststhe continuing need to support a traditional infrastructure limits the overall benet. In the book industry, for example, as long as a print market remains, the print infrastructure needs to be maintained. This means the digital savings apply to only a small slice of the market.
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As they continue this experimentation with business models, companies know that digital transformation will not necessarily benet overall industry revenues. For example, online and mobile ad rates are currently lower than ad rates on traditional platformsso when usage shifts from traditional platforms to digital platforms, the
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Changing consumer behavior around the three themes we have highlighted has caused entertainment and media businesses to radically rethink their approaches to monetization of content, as participants across the industry strive to identify and secure their optimal positioning and revenues in the digital value chain. With consumption habits continuing to change, businesses are experimenting and testing out new ways of monetizing the new behaviors while looking to maintain their off-line revenues and realize synergies with digital offerings.
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Future hope for digital ad revenues? However, there is hope that some digital revenues could exceed previous expectationssupported by addressability of online advertising and an expansion in advertising around online content. Some research suggests that the shift toward blended cross-platform TV and Internet ad campaigns could result in Internet advertisings actually becoming more valuable than TV adspotentially twice as valuable.
Until now, I havent paid to get news. If I had to choose between a paper and an online subscription, I would denitely opt for the latter. But its tricky, because even with serious articles and information, I can always nd similar content for free.
Paris, 49-year-old
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Combine the potential for higher volumes of online advertising with its additional addressabilityenabling ads to target specic customers in specic places at specic timesand the outlook for digital ad revenues becomes much brighter. The drawback for the industry is that this scenario may take some time to come about. While the technologies to support addressability are mature, their market penetration is still at an early stage, so the impact on Internet ad revenues is not yet signicant.
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To date, there has been a widespread view that consumers will not accept as many ads when consuming content online as when watching TV. However, consumers tolerance of online ads has yet to be really tested and may be signicantly greater than thought, especially given Internet ads greater interactivity and the potential for increased relevance through better targeting.
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Gartner says consumers will spend $6.2 billion in mobile application stores in 2010
In January 2010, Gartner estimated that consumers will spend $6.2 billion in mobile application stores in 2010, while advertising revenue is expected to generate $0.6 billion worldwide. It also said mobile application stores will exceed 4.5 billion in downloads during the year, with 8 out of 10 of them free to end users. According to Gartners estimates, worldwide mobile application stores download revenue exceeded $4.2 billion in 2009 and will grow to $29.5 billion by the end of 2013, including end-user spending on paid-for applications and advertisingsponsored free applications. Advertising-sponsored mobile applications will generate almost 25 percent of mobile application stores revenue by 2013.
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Testing the limits of paid-for content In the meantime, experimentation is continuing around business and pricing models. Some newspaper and magazine publishers are testing out the limits of what consumers will pay for. While established nancial publications such as the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, and The Economist have protected their online content behind pay walls for some time, it has been widely regarded as virtually impossible for newspapers and magazines to charge consumers for general online content. However, in March 2010, News International broke ranks when it said two of its agship UK newspapersThe Times and The Sunday Timeswould start charging for the general news coverage on their Web sites from June 2010, although existing subscribers to the print editions would still have free online access. Some other newspaper publishers have committed to continuing to offer general news content free online, while all are eagerly tracking their readers responses to developments in electronic readers. Similar divergence and innovation in business models is evident across the industry. Variable pricing is being introduced for music downloads, and the industry is still experimenting with moving from a pay-per-song downloading model to a monthly subscription for streamed music. Publishers are raising electronic book prices, reducing the differential between electronic and print, and delaying electronic distribution to give print a dedicated window.
in doubt because of the relatively small size of digital advertising spend, particularly if we discount searchthe fastest-growing component of online advertising. In 2009, nonsearch online advertising totaled less than $30 billion globally, and mobile added only $2 billion more. To put that gure into context, the relevant digital advertising market in 2009 was only 40 percent as large as print newspaper advertising, a market that itself may not be large enough to support the traditional newspaper business at historical levels. However, within the digital advertising mix are some important current developments whose impact it is too early to assess. For example, many developers of thirdparty apps for the Apple iPod have begun embedding ads into their apps to generate additional revenues. In April 2010 Apple launched iAd to help developers incorporate compelling ads and keep free apps free. The industry is watching the development of in-app advertising with interest. Recent estimates by research rm Gartner suggest the market for app-based advertising is substantialand growing. (See information panel.) With the shift away from pure ad-funded models, a growing proportion of business models look to generate revenues from consumers. However, the ability to monetize transactions depends on a range of issues, including who is involved in any partnership to deliver the service and where the balance of ownership lies in terms of the consumer relationship and brand loyalty. A further question has to do with how to collect the money. Micropayment can be a valuable tool, as demonstrated by social media sites that gain a mix of ad revenues and transactional micropayments from their social gaming applications. In China, for example, microtransactions account for virtually all of the online market and will boost spending to a projected $18 billion by 2014, representing more than 90 percent of that countrys total video game market. Despite the dramatic growth in micropayments in some markets, there is growing evidence that many consumers are happier paying a subscription or a small number of larger bills than making an ongoing series of very small payment decisions. However, these differing spending patterns are reective of demographic, cultural, and infrastructural differences. A related issue going forward is the business model for social networking sitesa key question being whether they can generate ad revenues without alienating their
It does not appear that advertising alone can fully support the shift from traditional to digital platforms, thereby putting the focus on hybrid ad-funded models blended with subscription and/or transaction revenues. True, digital advertising will grow faster than nondigital advertising during the next ve years, but relevant digital advertising in 2014 will still be a relatively modest, $53 billion, made up of $45 billion for nonsearch wired advertising and $8 billion for mobile advertising. This will still be a third lower than projected print newspaper advertising in 2014. The fragmentation of approach is very different from one or two years ago, when content providers were focusing largely on ad-supported models. The economic turbulence in many markets led to a decline in overall global advertising that also impacted growth rates in digital advertising in many countries. Even once the economy recovers, the sustainability of pure ad-supported business models is
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user base. In April 2010, Twitter announced it intended to start running advertising, or so-called promoted tweets, at the top of search pages to generate revenues from companies. Such a move appears to open up clear potential for a hybrid freemium model that would blend advertising, subscription, and transactional revenues, including a paid-for ad-free premium service.
If the price for a download and the theater is the same for a new movie, then I would probably download it because then I can share it with my family. But going to the movies is still best for action movies.
Delhi, 39-year-old
legacy revenue streams while investing in their digital services and creating complementary and synergistic relationships between their physical and digital offerings. These dynamics will drive the emergence of a new value chain for the industry. Media companies will need to establish clarity about their role or roles in it and their relationships with the other participants, which may include competing in some layers and partnering in others. To optimize their positioning, two important dimensions that media companies should focus on are scale and diversication. Lower costs, higher exibility enabled by cloud computing Both of those attributes are being supported by emerging technologies. On the supply side, cloud computing is rapidly reducing the operating and capital costs of editing, storage, search, and distribution. Cloud providers are queuing up to support media companies across the world, causing many activities traditionally conducted inhouse by integrated media companies to be reinvented, outsourced, or restructured. As a result, technology has become a CEO issue, providing the answer to the simple question, How do I monetize my content and inventory protably? Infrastructure assets such as storage, bandwidth, and servers, as well as customer relationship management databases can be provided on a service-for-a-charge or rental basis rather than as a capital cost. This more exible model allows for more risk taking for example, through new product or service launches, given there is no capital outlay. The ability to expand and contract the core cost base is clearly a big advantage; it also facilitates collaboration across projects, especially for smaller entities.
As we have pointed out, social and consumer dynamics are at the heart of changeand media companies ignore these trends at their peril. Time-starved individuals want both to use multiple, connected devices and to have personal experiences, often with others. The explosion in media choices also means individuals face a growing set of tradeoffs between the availability, quality, and price of content. Free may mean lower quality and convenience, while paid may mean higher-quality, more-personalized, and moreengaging content services. A polarization will emerge between these options. At the same time, many people will continue with traditional habits such as reading a physical book or newspaper. Companies need to maintain these
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Combined with the increasing pace of migration, those commercial pressures mean companies have no time to waste in identifying, pursuing, and occupying their optimal and rightful positions in the digital value chain. In the past ve years, much of the E&M industrys collective experience on business models, revenue streams, and organizational structures has been torn up. Companies now need to reassemble the pieces into a viable model one that puts them in a sustainable, defensible, and, ultimately, protable place in the new value chain.
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Overall, the migration from traditional platforms to digital platforms is changing the underlying commercial dynamics of the E&M industry. Historically, E&Ms protability as an industry was supported by the high costs of content creation and content distribution, which represented high barriers to entry. The migration to digital production and distribution has lowered those barriersmaking the overall E&M market more competitive and putting downward pressure on prot margins.
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Partnering becomes a key capability Irrespective of the choice of business models, one element is consistent: the need to partner with other organizations in order to create viable commercial offerings is increasing all the time. The proliferation of platforms and rising consumer expectations mean companies can no longer be everything and own their entire value chain. So strategic partnering is critical, characterized particularly by revenue sharing. Our experience shows todays strategic partnerships in E&M typically focus on two areas: Revenue growth through access to intellectual property (e.g., technology, content, brands, reputation, payment systems) and customers (e.g., entry into new demographics or geographic markets) Sharing costs and/or risks such as to reduce costs (e.g., of print production, network sharing) or to launch new, often risky platforms (e.g., mobile and intellectual property distribution of TV programs) With both objectives, partnering is increasingly important for experimentationfor example, as a way of gaining access to billing platforms. As a result, potential partners are being found in an increasingly diverse set of industriessuch as retail brands offering access to new demographics and such as technology companies providing the infrastructure to support increasingly targeted content and advertising.
What does all this mean for market dynamics and structure? In an environment where media revenues are undergoing at to low growth, companies must create new commercial arrangements, collaborations, and operating models that facilitate more-agile and lower-cost bases. After a period of experimentation, a ght for partners will ensue, combined with unprecedented competition for capitalnancial, intellectual, and human. Consolidation may also result in the long term, as companies search for economies of scale and scope. Addressing legacy challenges In all, we think that seven capabilities will be key to operating successfully in the digital E&M value chain that is now emerging. (See information panel.) In developing or acquiring those capabilities, companies will also need to keep a close eye on the impact of four legacy challenges created by digital. The rst is intellectual property rights. We have already highlighted how digital innovation can boost the value of established content, be it classic novels or 1970s progressive rock tracks. But often, the digital rights to such content are at best uncertain, and at worst impossible to untangle. The second is release windows. In a world of pervasive multichannel digital contestsoften available for free for those who care to look for themthe old approach of basing release windows on geography and platforms no longer works. Content released in one place or platform is effectively released everywhereand content owners will need to adjust their strategies to t this new reality. The third is regulation. The rapid rise of globally available, ubiquitous digital content has seen policy makers and regulators worldwide struggling to keep pace. With the disappearance of the traditional industry silos that used to dene regulators remits, content regulation has blurred across communications, broadcasting, privacy, and competition. E&M companies will need a rm grasp of the regulatory trends across all of the jurisdictions they operate in, together with the condence and ability to argue their cases when needed. The fourth is the operational step-change required by businesses to deliver their strategic intent. Organizations
Whatever the nature and objective of the partnership, success demands full commitment from top management, complete clarity on the strategy, careful structuring, detailed negotiation of any potential sticking points, and thorough implementation. Clear and robust governance is also vital to keep the partnership on track once it has become operational. We believe that cross-sector partnering will continue to escalate further over the coming ve years. Current models include Classied Venturesa collaboration between Tribune Co., Gannett McClatchy, the Washington Post, and Belo Corp., which operates Web portals for classied advertising for autos and real estate. Given the pressure on print circulation and advertising, striking the right online partnerships may be critical to some news organizations survival in the years to come.
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Seven critical success factors for operating in the new value chain
While desirable content, a cohesive strategy, and stringent execution will always be important, we have identied seven success factors we believe will facilitate each organizations transition to its optimal place in the new digital value chain. 4. Speed of decision making and execution, with the appetite to experiment and fail. Requiring the inspiring and empowering of individuals, the devolving of more accountability, and the streamlining of governance to accelerate decisions. 5. Agility in talent management. Attracting and retaining key talent and then aligning and incentivizing individuals to deliver the strategy through objective setting, rewards, and performance management. 6. Ability to monetize brand/rights across platforms. For example, music labels that monetize music events, independent producers who go into talent management, and broadcasters who go into Web TV, leveraging the expertise, branding, and customer data they own and/or can collect. 7. Strong capabilities in partnership structuring and mergers and acquisitions targeting and integration. Amid greater competition for strategic assets than ever before.
1. Strategic exibility. In practice, the ability to identify and realize opportunities for diversifying revenue whether by service, model, customer, geographic market, and/or maturity of proposition. 2. Delivery of engagement and relationship with the customer through the consumption experience. For example, in cinema or DVD rental, the relationship dened around experience with lm across platforms, which was previously dened by channel. 3. Economies of scale and scope. Driving synergies hard between different activities in conglomerates and using digital standards to exploit scale.
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will need to clarify and deepen their understanding of their own operating models. This means focusing on the aspects within their models that are essential to the success of their businesses and that support alignment with strategies. In some cases, radical overhaul will be needed, including a review of existing skill sets and the alignment of rewards and strategic intent through revised key performance indicators. In almost all cases, the complexity that has been built up over a number of years of acquisitions and cost reduction initiatives will need to be removed for those ambitiousand vitalstrategic aims to be fully realized.
A dening moment The past two years of turbulence and uncertainty have been tough for E&M companies. But the most lasting legacy of the downturn may well prove to be its role in accelerating the pace of digital transformation, bringing with it newand more-profoundchallenges. The industry is currently at a dening moment of reevaluation and redenition of its business models in ways that will ultimately redraw the value chain. Media companies that identify their optimal places in that network and that move quickly to diversify their revenues, to increase scale when appropriate, and to reshape their operating models in order to realize that positioning will be well-placed to succeed.
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Industry overview | Toward 2014
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2011 2012 503,923 5.0 515,853 5.3 414,574 6.8 63,463 10.0 5.8 3.0
North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacic % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change
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2005
2006 4.9
2007 3.4
2008 494,203 1.3 475,951 3.1 343,579 6.7 48,616 10.7 2.5
2009p 460,457 6.8 462,772 2.8 348,172 1.3 50,489 3.9 3.0
2010 465,880 1.2 471,602 1.9 365,656 5.0 53,436 5.8 2.6
2013 527,406 4.7 547,932 6.2 443,878 7.1 69,706 9.8 6.1
2014 557,756 5.8 580,814 6.0 474,913 7.0 76,815 10.2 6.4
484,406
1,174,261 1,248,703 1,328,574 1,362,349 1,321,890 1,356,574 1,415,607 1,497,813 1,588,922 1,690,298
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also the result of a strong economy. Japan will be the slowest growing of the leading countries, at 2.8 percent compounded annually. Both advertisingwhich consists of ad spending in media but does not include other brand spending and consumer/end-user spending are affected by the economy. Advertising is more sensitive to the economy than end-user spending is, and it fell at much steeper rates as the economy weakened. Advertising grew faster than consumer/end-user spending during 200506, and we expect it will do so again during 201214, when we expect a return to healthy economic growth. Both E&M components have been growing more slowly than has nominal gross domestic product (GDP) during the past ve years, in large part because of the growing share of digital in the overall spending mix. Digital media are less expensive than traditional media. Online ad rates are lower, as are end-user prices. Consequently, the shift in usage from traditional to digital generally leads to a decrease in spending. As a result, growth in the digital share of the market is dampening spending growth, which is why
E&M will continue to grow more slowly than nominal GDP growth during the next ve years even once the economy recovers. We expect that pattern to continue until the digital/traditional mix reaches equilibrium.
Global E&M advertising, consumer/end-user spending and nominal GDP growth (%)
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2008 460,997 169,298 89,089 69,166 76,154 63,190 43,714 33,206 28,076 30,248 22,080 22,234
2009p 428,140 164,337 88,526 75,815 73,245 61,938 41,989 32,317 28,836 28,632 23,049 21,796
2010 433,007 166,300 89,905 85,268 74,187 62,723 42,025 32,873 30,094 28,925 24,317 22,576
2011 445,756 171,202 92,359 94,868 76,426 64,266 43,012 34,233 31,822 30,461 26,356 23,744
2012 467,777 177,331 95,790 106,207 79,726 66,748 44,868 36,146 33,385 32,336 29,057 24,922
2013 488,774 183,241 99,972 118,989 83,768 69,909 47,158 38,632 34,947 34,749 31,791 26,356
2014 516,515 188,873 104,054 133,375 87,733 72,743 49,736 41,241 36,501 37,395 34,959 27,934
201014 CAGR 3.8 2.8 3.3 12.0 3.7 3.3 3.4 5.0 4.8 5.5 8.7 5.1
454,572 160,716 84,336 47,245 72,084 57,938 40,591 29,834 24,047 29,070 16,875 18,874
469,096 87,797 57,496 76,269 61,694 43,191 31,824 26,273 30,765 19,776 20,815
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Internet access
Internet access is not an entertainment and media segment in itself but is a fee that is paid in order to access content and is a key driver of entertainment and media spending in most segments. Figures do not include purchases of E&M content such as music, videos, or electronic books. Spending on E&M content downloaded over the Internet or through mobile phones is included in the respective entertainment and media segments. The Internet access market rose by 8.2 percent in 2009, the rst single-digit increase in years as the recession slowed growth. With broadband approaching maturity in some countries, we expect growth to remain at high-single-digit levels, although faster increases
are projected as the economy improves. Increased broadband penetration will boost wired access, while growing smartphone penetration and wireless network upgrades will drive mobile access. Spending will rise from $228 billion in 2009 to $351 billion in 2014, a 9.0 percent compound annual increase. Asia Pacic had the largest Internet access market, at $93 billion, in 2009, boosted by its large mobile access totals in Japan and South Korea. Because its mobile access market is far more mature than in any other region, Asia Pacic will be the slowest-growing region, with a 6.2 percent compound annual increase to $126 billion in 2014. As the mobile market develops in EMEA, that region will overtake Asia Pacic in 2013, rising to $135 billion in 2014 from $80 billion in 2009.
Global Internet access spending market: wired and mobile (US$ millions)
Segment Internet access: wired and mobile % Change 2005 137,582 23.9 2006 161,487 17.4 2007 187,324 16.0 2008 210,788 12.5 2009p 8.2
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2011 269,977 9.1 2012 295,819 9.6
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Global Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by region (US$ millions)
Region North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacic % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change 2005 29,380 9.9 47,195 18.8 57,202 37.7 3,805 27.0 137,582 23.9
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2006 14.2
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2008 41,355 7.7 72,674 12.4 88,299 13.7 8,460 27.7 210,788 12.5
2009p 44,941 8.7 79,907 10.0 93,433 5.8 9,779 15.6 228,060 8.2
2010 49,499 10.1 87,212 9.1 99,788 6.8 10,954 12.0 247,453 8.5
2011 54,614 10.3 96,410 10.5 106,137 6.4 12,816 17.0 269,977 9.1
2012 59,740 9.4 107,956 12.0 112,882 6.4 15,241 18.9 295,819 9.6
2013 64,572 8.1 121,781 12.8 119,802 6.1 17,974 17.9 324,129 9.6
2014 69,426 7.5 134,578 10.5 126,172 5.3 20,919 16.4 351,095 8.3
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Advertising
Advertising is the most cyclically sensitive of the E&M categories, and the recession led to an 11.8 percent decline in 2009. Except for Internet advertising and a developing video game advertising market, each segment declined by double-digit or high-single-digit rates in 2009. We expect a relatively at market in 2010, improved growth in 2011, and a return to mid-single-digit gains during 201214.
Except for the small video game advertising market, the Internet and television will be the fastest-growing advertising segments during the next ve years, with the Internet overtaking newspapers in 2012 to become the second-largest advertising category, reaching $104 billion by 2014 from $61 billion in 2009. Internet advertising growth slowed to 4.3 percent in 2009. We expect a return to double-digit increases by 2011, with growth averaging 11.4 percent compounded annually for the ve-year
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2012 82,535 12.1 173,294 7.0 2,388 11.9 27,264 2.5 81,422 2.2 30,660 4.2 26,377 5.5 28,595 0.2 14,184 3.5 444,091 5.4
2013 92,664 12.3 181,897 5.0 2,598 8.8 28,217 3.5 84,377 3.6 32,131 4.8 28,012 6.2 28,933 1.2 14,948 5.4 467,150 5.2
2014 103,843 12.1 195,689 7.6 2,845 9.5 29,429 4.3 88,105 4.4 33,740 5.0 29,939 6.9 29,479 1.9 15,982 6.9 497,648 6.5
201014 CAGR 11.4 5.7 12.9 1.3 0.7 3.9 4.5 0.4 0.9 4.2
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27,573 19.2 85,150 18.4 27,925 14.3 24,079 13.2 30,037 9.6 15,293 19.3 405,582 11.8
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9.3 156,271 5.2 1,843 18.6 26,521 3.8 80,024 6.0 28,440 1.8 24,086 0.0 28,761 4.2 13,977 8.6 409,278 0.9
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161,901 3.6 2,135 15.8 26,608 0.3 79,700 0.4 29,419 3.4 24,994 3.8 28,534 0.8 13,710 1.9 421,282 2.9
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Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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forecast period as a whole. Television will grow by a projected 5.7 percent compounded annually, beneting from an improved economy and share gains from the print media. Advertisers are increasingly using television and the Internet together, and television is often used for driving trafc to advertisers Web sites. The print media, by contrast, experienced the largest decreases in 2009, with declines in excess of 18 percent for newspapers and 19 percent for consumer and trade magazines. We expect slow growth in the print media during the next ve years. A small video game advertising sector will increase at a 12.9 percent compound annual rate to $2.8 billion in 2014. Out-of-home will grow at an above-average 4.5 percent compound annual rate. Digital billboards are expanding the effective inventory by allowing the same display to be
sold to multiple advertisers. We look for a rebound in radio beginning in 2010 and project a 3.9 percent compound annual increase, while directories will be the only category to be smaller in 2014 than in 2009. Overall global advertising will increase at a 4.2 percent compound annual rate from $406 billion in 2009 to $498 billion in 2014. Latin America was the only region to expand advertising spend in 2009, in large part because of high ination. North America and EMEA declined at double-digit rates, while Asia Pacic fell by 6.3 percent. We expect Asia Pacic to rebound in 2010 and to increase at a 6.6 percent compound annual rate. North America and EMEA will remain the weakest segments, while high ination will continue to buttress advertising in Latin America.
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2011 2012 175,641 4.4 132,382 4.6 112,494 7.3 23,574 8.8 444,091 5.4 0.7
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2010 167,039 0.6 123,284 0.1 98,652 3.4 20,303 6.6 409,278 0.9
2013 181,039 3.1 139,336 5.3 121,397 7.9 25,378 7.7 467,150 5.2
2014 191,080 5.5 147,863 6.1 131,138 8.0 27,567 8.6 497,648 6.5
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Consumer/end-user spending
Global consumer/end-user spending fell by 0.5 percent in 2009 as declines in recorded music, consumer magazines, newspapers, consumer and educational books, and business-to-business publishing offset gains in TV subscriptions and license fees, lmed entertainment, and video games. Newspapers will continue to decline in 2010,
and recorded music, consumer magazines, and businessto-business publishing will continue to fall through 2011. Video games will be the fastest-growing segment during the next ve years, with a 10.5 percent compound annual increase, boosted by growth in online and wireless games. TV subscriptions and license fees will be the next fastest, with a projected 6.8 percent increase compounded
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2012 7.7 26,353 1.2 96,171 5.2 68,219 10.5 43,260 0.8 70,409 1.1 16,655 2.7
2013 240,836 7.4 26,965 2.3 101,829 5.9 75,493 10.7 43,839 1.3 71,372 1.4 17,240 3.5 115,591 2.6 104,478 4.5 797,643 5.2
2014 258,130 7.2 27,873 3.4 107,531 5.6 83,911 11.2 44,546 1.6 72,528 1.6 17,620 2.2 118,833 2.8 110,583 5.8 841,555 5.5
201014 CAGR 6.8 1.1 4.8 10.5 0.3 0.8 2.9 1.9 1.5 4.1
208,205 26,041 0.5 91,425 4.6 61,716 9.6 42,914 0.3 69,652 0.5 16,218 2.8
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0.8 19.2 49,866 45,789 1.7 1.7 14,905 4.7 109,485 0.3 113,039 1.9 691,679 2.2 70,416
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102,467 4.5
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25,919 1.7 2.6 56,325 10.5 43,027 2.0 69,293 0.6 15,772 3.3 108,516 0.3 98,577 4.1 699,843 1.7 87,385
33
annually, fueled by growth in subscription households, the entrance of telephone companies into TV distribution, and an expanding video-on-demand market once the economy improves. Filmed entertainment will grow at a 4.8 percent compound annual rate, boosted by the proliferation of digital cinemas and 3-D lms and by an emerging highdenition video market. Radio will rise at a 2.9 percent compound annual rate, the result of an expanding satellite radio market in North America and growing public radio license fees. The remaining segments will each grow by less than 2 percent compounded annually. Overall spending will
rise from $688 billion in 2009 to $842 billion in 2014, a 4.1 percent compound annual increase. Although lagging North America in advertising, EMEA had the largest consumer/end-user market, at $260 billion, in 2009. Public broadcast license fees contribute to the total in EMEA while cutting into advertising, as a number of the major public broadcasters do not accept advertising. Declines in North America and EMEA in 2009 offset increases in Asia Pacic and Latin America. Asia Pacic was the fastest-growing region in 2009 and will continue to be the fastest growing during the next ve years, with a projected 6.4 percent compound annual increase.
N LY
2011 3.1 2012 268,542 4.5 275,515 3.3 189,198 6.7 24,648 6.3 757,903 4.6
SE
2013 281,795 4.9 286,815 4.1 202,679 7.1 26,354 6.9 797,643 5.2
2014 297,250 5.5 298,373 4.0 217,603 7.4 28,329 7.5 841,555 5.5
249,342
257,100
261,106
ES
153,495 5.6 21,205 7.2 2.2 691,679
159,325 21,660
34
FO
PR
676,844 5.4
FO
PR
ES
S
Industry overview | Global industry summary
SE
LY
35
SE
3.0 2.5
9.5 3.2
26,372
ES
85,137
PR
51,203
52,507 71,475 10.6 154,887 11.4 43,190 9.0 24,079 13.2 108,201 1.2 148,110 10.4 3.0
79,741 1.4
81,624
FO
182,468 0.1 48,365 2.3 27,686 7.5 109,111 5.3 169,372 4.3 6.4
1,174,261 1,248,703 1,328,574 1,362,349 1,321,890 1,356,574 1,415,607 1,497,813 1,588,922 1,690,298 4.4 5.8
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
36
N LY
73,642 11.3 6.8 82,535 12.1 7.7 173,294 7.0 26,353 1.2 96,171 5.2 70,607 10.6 70,524 1.4 151,831 1.7 47,315 3.7 26,377 5.5 112,613 2.3 142,795 1.8 208,205 224,207 161,901 3.6 26,041 0.5 91,425 4.6 63,851 9.8 69,522 0.0 149,352 0.0 45,637 3.2 24,994 3.8 110,104 1.5 140,317 0.7
Internet access
Global Internet access, which includes both wired and mobile access, rose by 8.2 percent in 2009. Penetration by the broadband infrastructure into underserved areas will expand the broadband household base. Broadband pricing will be affected by opposing trends: (1) increased competition that leads to lower prices and (2) proliferation of high-speed broadband options at premium fees that leads to higher prices. On balance, the rate of broadband price declines will moderate. Approaching broadband saturation in many countries will lead to slower growth in broadband households. Wireless network upgrades, the further rollout of enhanced thirdgeneration cellular wireless services, the launch of fourth-
generation wireless services, and increased penetration by smartphones with touch-screen capabilities will stimulate demand for mobile Internet access. Wired broadband access will increase at a 7.3 percent compound annual rate to $241 billion in 2014. Global mobile Internet access spending totaled $58.6 billion in 2009, with 66 percent of that total generated by Japan, the Peoples Republic of China, and South Korea. Japan alone accounted for 53 percent of global mobile Internet access spending. We expect mobile access will increase to $110.3 billion in 2014, a 13.5 percent compound annual increase. The overall access market will increase at a 9.0 percent compound annual rate to $351 billion in 2014.
Global Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by region (US$ millions)
Region North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacic % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change 2005 29,380 9.9 47,195 18.8 57,202 37.7 3,805 27.0 2006 33,553 14.2 55,768 18.2 67,208 17.5 4,958 30.3 2007 38,398 14.4 64,634 2008
SE
LY
2009p 8.7
2010 49,499 10.1 87,212 9.1 99,788 6.8 10,954 12.0 247,453 8.5
2011 54,614 10.3 96,410 10.5 106,137 6.4 12,816 17.0 269,977 9.1
2012 59,740 9.4 107,956 12.0 112,882 6.4 15,241 18.9 295,819 9.6
2013 64,572 8.1 121,781 12.8 119,802 6.1 17,974 17.9 324,129 9.6
2014 69,426 7.5 134,578 10.5 126,172 5.3 20,919 16.4 351,095 8.3
ES
15.9 77,666 15.6 6,626 33.6 187,324 16.0
S
7.7 72,674 12.4 88,299 13.7 8,460 27.7 210,788 12.5
41,355
44,941
FO
137,582 23.9
161,487 17.4
PR
37
Global Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by component (US$ millions)
Component Dial-up % Change Broadband % Change Total wired Internet access % Change Mobile access % Change Total % Change 2005 37,064 10.2 74,896 33.3 111,960 14.9 25,622 89.6 137,582 23.9 2006 30,935 16.5 94,952 26.8 125,887 12.4 35,600 38.9 161,487 17.4 2007 28,508 7.8 115,245 21.4 143,753 14.2 43,571 22.4 187,324 16.0 2008 26,526 7.0 132,020 14.6 158,546 10.3 52,242 19.9 210,788 12.5 2009p 23,828 10.2 145,667 10.3 169,495 6.9 58,565 12.1 228,060 8.2 2010 20,833 12.6 160,244 10.0 181,077 6.8 66,376 13.3 247,453 8.5 2011 17,741 14.8 176,838 10.4 194,579 7.5 75,398 13.6 9.1 269,977 2012 14,671 17.3 195,119 10.3 209,790 7.8 86,029 14.1 9.6 2013 11,735 20.0 213,947 9.6 225,682 7.6 98,447 14.4 9.6 2014 9,633 17.9 231,154 8.0 240,787 6.7 110,308 12.0 351,095 8.3 9.0 13.5 7.3 9.7 16.6 201014 CAGR
PR
Global Internet advertising, including advertising on Web sites accessed by a computer and mobile sites intended for access by mobile phones, rose by 4.3 percent in 2009, a slowdown from 18.9 percent growth in 2008 and annual gains in excess of 30 percent during 200507 but still the best-performing advertising segment in 2009.
Broadband household growth will be the principal driver of wired Internet advertising. Paid search, a format not available in other media, will attract spending to the Internet. In the mobile market, wireless network upgrades, growth in numbers of mobile access subscribers, and increasing penetration by Internet-enabled smartphones will drive mobile advertising.
FO
Paid-search advertising rose by 10.1 percent in 2009, overriding the effects of the recession, and will account for a majority of global wired Internet advertising from 2012, rising to $50 billion in 2014, a 12.2 percent compound annual increase. Display, classied, and other advertising,
38
ES
Internet advertising
by contrast, declined by 2.5 percent in 2009, hurt by a drop in classied advertising, the most cyclically sensitive of all advertising categories. Although gaining share from print, online classied advertising was not immune to the effects of the recession. During the next ve years, display, classied, and other advertising will advance at an 8.9 percent compound annual rate to $46.2 billion in 2014. Total global wired Internet advertising will reach $96.2 billion in 2014, a 10.5 percent compound annual increase. Mobile advertising will rise to $7.7 billion in 2014, a 27.7 percent compound annual increase. Internet advertising will join television in 2014 as the only medium with spending in excess of $100 billion. The Internet is gaining share from the print media and is being used in conjunction with television in advertising campaigns. North America, which has a well-developed broadband market, will be the only region that will not expand at double-digit annual rates during the next ve years.
SE
N LY
295,819
324,129
Global Internet advertising market: wired and mobile by region (US$ millions)
Region North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacic % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change 2005 13,034 31.1 6,561 58.3 5,929 94.0 234 50.0 25,758 48.9 2006 17,726 36.0 10,734 63.6 7,977 34.5 297 26.9 36,734 42.6 2007 22,423 26.5 15,250 42.1 10,707 34.2 469 57.9 48,849 33.0 2008 25,149 12.2 18,686 22.5 13,548 26.5 685 46.1 58,068 18.9 2009p 24,646 2.0 19,837 6.2 15,261 12.6 814 18.8 60,558 4.3 2010 25,942 5.3 22,029 11.1 17,272 13.2 933 14.6 66,176 9.3 2011 27,921 7.6 24,793 12.5 19,850 14.9 1,078 2012 30,303 8.5 28,237 13.9 22,732 14.5 17.2 82,535 12.1 1,263 2013 33,147 9.4 32,014 13.4 26,035 14.5 1,468 16.2 92,664 12.3 2014 36,129 9.0 36,247 13.2 29,763 14.3 1,704 16.1 103,843 12.1 11.4 15.9 14.3 12.8 7.9 201014 CAGR
Global Internet advertising market: wired and mobile by component (US$ millions)
SE
LY
15.5 73,642 11.3
Wired Internet advertising Search % Change Display, classied, other % Change Total wired Internet advertising % Change Mobile advertising % Change Total % Change 10,115 64.8 15,395 38.7 25,510 248 293.7 25,758 48.9 48.0 15,232 50.6
ES
Category
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009p 28,049 10.1 30,253 2.5 58,302 3.2 2,256 43.4 60,558 4.3
2010 30,909 10.2 32,460 7.3 63,369 8.7 2,807 24.4 66,176 9.3
2011 34,725 12.3 35,236 8.6 69,961 10.4 3,681 31.1 73,642 11.3
2012 39,286 13.1 38,574 9.5 77,860 11.3 4,675 27.0 82,535 12.1
2013 44,428 13.1 42,225 9.5 86,653 11.3 6,011 28.6 92,664 12.3
2014 49,962 12.5 46,230 9.5 96,192 11.0 7,651 27.3 103,843 12.1
201014 CAGR
PR
20,727
25,472 22.9
36.1
21,046 36.7
27,321 29.8
FO
39
Subscription spending will increase at a 7.5 percent compound annual rate to $210.8 billion in 2014. Pay-perview will total $4.8 billion in 2014, a 0.9 percent compound annual increase. Video-on-demand will rise to $8.3 billion in 2014, a 15.4 percent compound annual increase. Public TV license fees will grow by 1.1 percent annually to $30.9 billion. The mobile TV market is grappling with whether it should be a subscription-supported service, an ad-supported service, or a hybrid. Although the number of mobile TV subscribers is only a fraction of the number of mobile TV users, growth in that market will drive spending. Mobile TV subscription spending will be the fastest-growing category from a small base, reaching $3.4 billion in 2014. Despite that advance, mobile TV subscriptions will constitute only 1.3 percent of TV subscription and license fee spending in 2014. We expect the total market, including public TV license fees in EMEA and Asia Pacic, to reach $258 billion in 2014, a 6.8 percent compound annual increase from 2009. Fueled principally by large increases in subscription households in India and the PRC, Asia Pacic will be the fastest-growing region during the next ve years, with a 10.0 percent compound annual increase.
PR
ES
SE
N LY
2011 2012 95,168 7.7 79,647 6.1 39,095 10.6 10,297 9.2 224,207 7.7 6.6
North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacic % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change
64,139 7.0 52,902 8.6 19,318 13.6 5,526 10.4 141,885 8.6
FO
Region
2005
2006 6.8
2007 6.6
2008 77,071 5.6 66,325 6.6 26,685 10.0 8,239 14.7 178,320 7.0
2009p 79,344 2.9 68,804 3.7 29,223 9.5 8,530 3.5 185,901 4.3
2010 82,833 4.4 71,303 3.6 32,041 9.6 8,852 3.8 195,029 4.9
2013 101,625 6.8 84,910 6.6 42,986 10.0 11,315 9.9 240,836 7.4
2014 108,827 7.1 89,646 5.6 47,135 9.7 12,522 10.7 258,130 7.2
68,479
40
SE
ES
Television advertising
S
Broadcast advertising will rise to $187 billion, a 5.1 percent increase compounded annually. Online television advertising will increase at a 20.4 percent compound annual rate to $6.1 billion in 2014, while mobile television advertising will increase to $2.5 billion, a 34.7 percent increase compounded annually. Total online and mobile television advertising will average 23.6 percent compounded annually, growing to $8.5 billion by 2014. Television is the largest advertising medium and will gain share from print during the next ve years. Television is being used in conjunction with the Internet and will benet from broadband expansion and growth in Internet advertising.
TV advertising fell by 9.5 percent in 2009, the result of the recession and the absence of advertising associated with the Beijing Olympics. A stabilizing economic environment in 2010 will lead to a rebound in television advertising. In addition to the economy, broadcast advertising will benet from more channels coming from new or expanded multichannel platforms and rising levels of viewing based on growing high-denition penetration. The introduction of Web-enabled TV sets in North America and EMEA and the expansion of online streaming in all regions will fuel online television advertising. Mobile TV rollouts and the shift from subscriber-supported to advertiser-supported services will expand the mobile television advertising market.
FO
PR
O
16.8 4.9 195,029
LY
41
SE
5.2
N LY
173,294 7.0 2011 107,589 1.8 44,811 6.6 157,516 3.2 3,399 19.8 986 33.1 4,385 22.5 161,901 3.6 2012 113,894 5.9 48,651 8.6 167,828 6.5 4,100 20.6 1,366 38.5 5,466 24.7 173,294 7.0
181,897
ES
2008
2009p 101,691 11.8 38,983 4.3 145,609 9.9 2,397 10.9 554 57.8 2,951 17.5 148,560 9.5
2010 105,665 3.9 42,043 7.8 152,692 4.9 2,838 18.4 741 33.8 3,579 21.3 156,271 5.2
2013 117,080 2.8 52,506 7.9 175,029 4.3 4,976 21.4 1,892 38.5 6,868 25.6 181,897 5.0
2014 124,584 6.4 56,894 8.4 187,164 6.9 6,070 22.0 2,455 29.8 8,525 24.1 195,689 7.6
201014 CAGR
PR
2.1
116,084 38,632 8.4 160,494 3.5 1,446 69.7 102 500.0 1,548 78.1
115,321 0.7 40,745 5.5 161,677 0.7 2,161 49.4 351 244.1 2,512 62.3
4.1 7.9
35,626
FO
R
154,999 6.3
5.1
Online and mobile television advertising 350 133.3 NA 350 133.3 146,170 3.5 852 143.4 17 869 148.3 155,868 6.6 20.4 34.7
23.6 5.7
162,042 4.0
164,189 1.3
Germany is not included in the terrestrial and multichannel gures but is included in the total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
42
Recorded music
The global recorded music market fell by 3.2 percent in 2009, the smallest decline since 2005. In a stunning reversal, Asia Pacic reversed a 3.4 percent decrease in 2008 with a 9.0 percent gain in 2009. That gain was due principally to a surge in digital spending in Japan and South Korea. South Korea instituted a new antipiracy program that threatened to cut off Internet access from infringers, leading to a jump in digital spending, which Japans digital market doubled. Additionally, because of high piracy rates in a number of countries, legitimate physical spending has been reduced to the point where ongoing declines play less of a role in the total market. Overall spending on physical formats fell by 12.9 percent, offsetting a 29.3 percent rise in digital formats. Physical distribution will decline in each region because of competition from legitimate digital services and piracy. Declines will moderate as the physical market begins to approach a core level, because many people still prefer music in physical formats.
online digital stores while bypassing wireless carriers to access music. Broadband growth also is expanding the potential digital market. Digital distribution will increase to $17 billion in 2014, a 16.0 percent compound annual advance. Physical distribution will decline at a 9.8 percent compound annual rate to $10.9 billion in 2014. Globally, digital distribution will pass physical distribution in 2012 and will account for 61 percent of spending in 2014. The global recorded music market is approaching a turning point. Spending will decrease in 2010 and then begin to rebound as increases in the digital market offset ongoing declines in physical-format spending. Spending for the forecast period as a whole will increase at a 1.1 percent compound annual rate to $28 billion in 2014. Despite that advance, the market in 2014 will remain 19 percent below its level in 2005. Spending on physical distribution will have fallen by a cumulative 66.4 percent from 2005 to 2014. Asia Pacic will continue to be the fastest-growing region, with a 4.3 percent projected increase compounded annually. We expect gains in EMEA during 201214 to offset near-term declines, leading to an increase during the next ve years. In North America and Latin America, nearterm decreases will lead to lower spending in 2014 than in 2009 despite a modest rebound during the latter part of the forecast period.
FO
13,045
PR
The digital market will be fueled by new services. In North America and EMEA, streaming services supported by subscriptions or advertising will become important drivers of growth. In Asia Pacic and Latin America, new digital stores and online and mobile streaming services will expand the market. Smartphones are driving growth in all regions as users purchase music through app stores and
ES
SE
LY
43
44
FO
PR
ES
SE
N LY
Filmed entertainment
Filmed entertainment rose by 3.0 percent in 2009, reversing the 0.8 percent decline in 2008 and the only segment to show improvement in 2009. Growth was driven by a 12 percent increase in box ofce spending that offset a 1.4 percent decline in home video. Box ofce beneted from a strong roster of lms and the expansion of 3-D, which attracted large numbers of patrons who were willing to pay premium prices. Key factors affecting the market in any given year are the quality of releases and their appeal to consumers, which are developments we cannot predict. Box ofce spending will be enhanced by continued growth in 3-D screens and 3-D releases that are proving to be very popular. The sell-through market, by contrast, fell by 5.9 percent, hurt (1) by the recession, which cut into discretionary spending but not into box ofce, which appears to benet during difcult economic times, and (2) by diminished demand for lm libraries. We expect the sell-through market to turn around beginning in 2011 as economic conditions improve and as the popular Blu-ray format, the bright spot in sell-through in 2009, offsets declines in
DVDs. Meanwhile growing penetration of high-denition TV sets will fuel demand for high-denition videos, which will buttress physical sell-through. Growth in kiosks and low-cost rentals will boost rental spending in each region except EMEA. Rental growth will ultimately moderate as competition from video-on-demand and online distribution increases. The convenience of online rental services will boost spending. Faster broadband speeds, rising levels of broadband penetration, and devices that allow TV viewing will propel a small digital download market. We expect moderating growth in digital downloads during the next two years and then a pickup in growth in 2012, reecting the movement in the marketfrom early adopters to mainstream use, which signicantly expands the market. Piracy will continue to hold down spending, particularly in Asia Pacic and Latin America as well as a number of countries in EMEA. During the next ve years, we expect the market to expand at a 4.8 percent compound annual rate to $108 billion in 2014.
PR
FO
23,377
37,992
ES
38,762
S
Industry overview | Global market by segment
SE
LY
45
SE
37.0 1.5 2.6 55,288 87,385
U
1.4 3.0
54,481 85,137
Video games
PR
Video games rose by 2.5 percent in 2009, well below the double-digit increases during the prior three years as the recession cut into spending. Console games fell by 5.9 percent, a 24.1-percentage-point reversal from the 18.2 percent increase in 2008. In addition to the impact of the recession, which affected both DVD games and video games, a number of developers delayed releases of high-prole games that had been previously scheduled for 2009. The games will be released in 2010, which, along with a stronger economy, will contribute to a rebound. We expect that by 2014, the next generation of consoles will begin to be introduced, which will spur renewed growth in console games. Console games will expand at a 5.5 percent compound annual rate.
FO
The online market continues to expand due to the increase in penetration of broadband households and to the increasing popularity of massively multiplayer online games. Microtransactions, whereby gamers buy enhanced tools to improve their performance, are becoming major drivers of online game spending. Casual games are also an
46
ES
important component of the online market, helping expand the demographic base and stimulate spending, which will increase by 21.3 percent compounded annually. The growth of smartphones with improved graphic capabilities will drive demand for wireless games. At the same time, new application stores that make the purchasing of games more user-friendly will increase the number of gamers willing to purchase games. The growth of third-generation networks, with their faster speeds, will provide an environment that enables wireless games to approach the quality of console games. Wireless games will increase at a 12.3 percent compound annual rate. The market for PC games fell by 7.4 percent in 2009 and will continue to deteriorate, declining at a 1.8 percent compound annual rate as consumers turn their attention to newer technologies. The growth of massively multiplayer online games, which usually require the retail purchase of a PC game, will partially offset the continuing decline of the retail PC game market. Video game advertising is emerging as an additional revenue stream. The dynamic in-game advertising
O
13.9 809 36.4 3.5 91,425 4.6 57,199
N LY
4,788
segment is increasing in importance and is being fueled by the growth of the online game market. Advertising will increase by 12.9 percent compounded annually. We project the overall video game market to expand to $87 billion in 2014, a 10.6 percent compound annual increase. Asia Pacic, the largest region in 2009, at $19 billion, will be the fastest growing during the next ve
years, with a 16.3 percent compound annual increase. Online games, the fastest-growing category, constitute 35 percent of the total video game market in Asia Pacic compared with only 11 percent for the rest of the world. In the PRC, online games represent 84 percent of the market. Growth in online games in the PRC will account for 40 percent of the total global increase in video game spending during the next ve years.
LY
Region North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacic % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change
2005 8,986 1.0 10,433 8.6 9,436 11.6 547 5.4 29,402 6.8
2006 10,235 13.9 11,696 12.1 11,245 19.2 687 25.6 33,863 15.2
2007 13,227 29.2 14,423 23.3 14,332 27.5 890 29.5 42,872 26.6
2009p 15,142 6.1 16,827 1.1 14.4 2.3 52,507 2.5 19,411 1,127
2011 5.6
2012 5.9
2013 19,415 6.4 21,590 6.2 35,452 16.1 1,634 8.7 78,091 10.6
2014 20,710 6.7 22,953 6.3 41,337 16.6 1,756 7.5 86,756 11.1
O
22,474 15.8 1,254 11.3 58,168 10.8
17,231
18,249
PR
ES
S
51,203 19.4
SE
FO
2006 19,751 7.8 5,274 35.7 3,603 40.9 4,580 2.7 33,208 13.6 655 278.6 33,863 15.2
2007 25,344 28.3 7,270 37.8 4,799 33.2 4,438 3.1 41,851 26.0 1,021 55.9 42,872 26.6
2008 29,951 18.2 9,608 32.2 6,188 28.9 4,119 7.2 49,866 19.2 1,337 31.0 51,203 19.4
2009p 28,169 5.9 11,655 21.3 7,313 18.2 3,816 7.4 50,953 2.2 1,554 16.2 52,507 2.5
2010 30,000 6.5 14,127 21.2 8,467 15.8 3,731 2.2 56,325 10.5 1,843 18.6 58,168 10.8
2011 31,334 4.4 17,068 20.8 9,642 13.9 3,672 1.6 61,716 9.6 2,135 15.8 63,851 9.8
2012 32,873 4.9 20,781 21.8 10,957 13.6 3,608 1.7 68,219 10.5 2,388 11.9 70,607 10.6
2013 34,674 5.5 25,258 21.5 12,021 9.7 3,540 1.9 75,493 10.7 2,598 8.8 78,091 10.6
2014 36,774 6.1 30,593 21.1 13,061 8.7 3,483 1.6 83,911 11.2 2,845 9.5 86,756 11.1
47
SE
We project consumer magazine publishing to expand at a 0.7 percent compound annual rate to $74 billion in 2014. Latin America will be the fastest-growing region during the next ve years, with a projected 5.1 percent compound annual increase. Magazines face less competition from the Internet in Latin America than they do in other regions, which will help publishers hold on to their market.
N LY
2011 2012 20,204 0.2 31,447 1.1 15,367 2.9 3,506 5.9 70,524 1.4 1.7
Broadband household growth and an expanding mobile access market will fuel digital advertising. Rising discretionary income during the latter part of the forecast period will lead to a rebound in circulation spending. We expect digital advertising to rise at an 18.5 percent compound annual rate to $3 billion in 2014, while print advertising will edge up at a 0.1 percent compound annual rate to $26.4 billion in 2014. Total advertising will increase by 1.3 percent compounded annually during the next ve years. Circulation spending will decline through 2011 and then will expand to $44.5 billion by 2014, a 0.3 percent compound annual increase.
ES
2008
2009p 12.7
2010 20,513 4.0 31,214 2.5 14,660 2.4 3,161 3.3 69,548 2.7
2013 20,496 1.4 31,951 1.6 15,902 3.5 3,707 5.7 72,056 2.2
2014 20,948 2.2 32,636 2.1 16,465 3.5 3,926 5.9 73,975 2.7
PR
24,478 3.3
21,375
35,614 2.1
FO
16,811
81,624 2.4
48
Newspaper publishing
Declines in paid unit circulation in North America and EMEA will adversely affect circulation spending, while rising unit circulation in Latin America and Asia Pacic will boost paid circulation spending. Paid online content and
FO
Newspaper publishing fell by 11.4 percent in 2009, the result of a 19.1 percent drop in print advertising. We expect a further, 7.4 percent decline in print advertising during the next two years. Print advertising in 2011 will be 32 percent lower than in 2006. Migration of readers to the Internet will cut into advertising and circulation growth even once the economy improves. Newspapers will continue to lose classied advertising share to the Internet. Print advertising will be 0.1 percent higher on a compound annual basis in 2014 compared with 2009.
ES
PR
SE
distribution to mobile devices will generate incremental revenue streams in North America, EMEA, and Asia Pacic. Overall circulation spending will increase at an 0.8 percent compound annual rate. Rising Web site trafc will boost digital advertising by 7.6 percent compounded annually. The overall newspaper market will rise to $161 billion in 2014, a 0.7 compound annual increase. As with consumer magazines, newspaper publishers face less competition from the Internet in Latin America than they do in other regions. We expect Latin America to grow at a 5.1 percent compound annual rate. Asia Pacic also has a relatively healthy newspaper market, boosted by growth in unit circulation in India and the PRC. We project Asia Pacic to increase by 2.3 percent compounded annually during the next ve years.
LY
69,522
49
O
149,352 0.0
SE
N LY
151,831 1.7 2011 73,743 0.9 5,957 6.3 79,700 0.4 69,652 0.5 149,352 0.0 2012 74,973 1.7 6,449 8.3 81,422 2.2 70,409 1.1 151,831 1.7
155,749
Print advertising % Change Digital advertising % Change Total advertising % Change Circulation % Change Total % Change
108,690 2.5 2,944 91.0 111,634 3.8 67,785 1.3 179,419 2.8
ES
Component
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010 74,419 6.6 5,605 2.3 80,024 6.0 69,293 0.6 149,317 3.6
2013 77,331 3.1 7,046 9.3 84,377 3.6 71,372 1.4 155,749 2.6
2014 80,213 3.7 7,892 12.0 88,105 4.4 72,528 1.6 160,633 3.1
79,671
R
0.7 1.8
PR
113,205 1.0 1.4 182,468 0.1 69,263
50
FO
68,275 182,635
Radio
The radio market fell by 9.0 percent in 2009 as the recession led to a 14.3 percent decrease in radio advertising. Advertising is beginning to turn around, and we project a 1.8 percent increase in 2010, with stronger gains thereafter. Global radio advertising will increase by 3.9 percent compounded annually to $33.7 billion in 2014. Many broadcasters are exploring ways to expand their exposure through digital radio and Internet radio, but these alternatives are not expected to be major sources of revenue for some years. Satellite radio will boost spending in North America, while modest increases in public radio license fees will help
maintain the radio markets in Asia Pacic and EMEA. Public radio license fees will rise at a 1.2 percent annual rate to $13.5 billion in 2014. Satellite radio subscriptions will be the fastest-growing component, averaging 10.0 percent compounded annually to $4.1 billion. The market as a whole will total $51 billion in 2014, growing at a 3.5 percent compound annual rate from 2009. We expect India to have the fastest-growing radio market in the world, with a projected 17.0 percent compound annual increase. The government is expected to issue an additional 600 radio licenses. Listening is up, and advertising is surging.
SE
LY
21,390 5.7 0.1 17,344 7,634 4.5 1,119 6.4 47,487 1.8
2009p 15.0
2010 4.1
2011 19,772 4.5 16,532 0.8 7,991 4.4 1,342 8.4 45,637 3.2
2012 20,696 4.7 16,787 1.5 8,358 4.6 1,474 9.8 47,315 3.7
2013 21,691 4.8 17,257 2.8 8,800 5.3 1,623 10.1 49,371 4.3
2014 22,721 4.7 17,595 2.0 9,250 5.1 1,794 10.5 51,360 4.0
18,174
ES
7,306 1.9 1,052 16.1 48,365 2.3
FO
PR
906 11.0 3.9 47,260
51
Out-of-home advertising
Out-of-home advertising fell by 13.2 percent in 2009 as the recession led to cutbacks in spending. We expect the market to stabilize in 2010 and begin to expand in 2011 as economic conditions improve. Digital billboards that expand the effective out-of-home inventory because multiple ads can be shown on the same display,
PR
ES
generating greater revenues compared with traditional billboardswill spur the growth in the out-of-home market. Improved out-of-home audience measurement will attract advertisers, and the expansion of captive video networks will also fuel growth. We expect out-of-home advertising to expand at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate during the next ve years to $30 billion in 2014.
SE
N LY
2011 6,305 3.0 8,317 1.9 9,164 5.4 1,208 8.9 2012 6,625 5.1 8,635 3.8 9,799 6.9 1,318 9.1 26,377 5.5
2006 8.0
2007 7.9
2008 7,395 3.9 9,907 2.0 9,459 1.1 995 7.1 27,756 0.3
2009p 6,366 13.9 8,127 18.0 8,562 9.5 1,024 2.9 24,079 13.2
2010 6,121 3.8 8,161 0.4 8,695 1.6 1,109 8.3 24,086 0.0
2013 7,022 6.0 9,005 4.3 10,546 7.6 1,439 9.2 28,012 6.2
2014 7,465 6.3 9,503 5.5 11,412 8.2 1,559 8.3 29,939 6.9
FO
9,025 8.9 8,736 3.9 868 15.7 25,758 7.1
7,129
7,694
24,994 3.8
52
Global consumer and educational book publishing market by region (US$ millions)
PR
ES
We project total spending to increase at a 1.9 percent compound annual rate to $119 billion in 2014. In contrast with other segments, we expect North America to be the fastest-growing region during the next ve years, with a 2.5 percent compound annual increase. New school standards will lead to a rebound in elhi spending in the United States and a rental market for college books emerging in the US. Schools and colleges will also adopt electronic books. Also, in contrast to other segments, we expect educational book spending in the PRC to decline because of falling enrollment.
SE
LY
while college textbooks have a countercyclical element and will benet from people returning to college to improve their job prospects while employment opportunities are limited. We expect print educational books to decrease in 2010 and then expand during the subsequent four years, rising to $41 billion in 2014, a 0.9 percent compound annual gain. Electronic books are growing at the college level, and we project a 36.5 percent compound annual increase during the next ve years to $2.4 billion in 2014, boosting overall educational book growth to 1.8 percent compounded annually.
Region North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacic % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change
2007 6.7
2008 32,484 3.5 46,221 0.1 28,108 5.0 2,672 6.2 109,485 0.3
2009p 32,665 0.6 45,055 2.5 27,866 0.9 2,615 2.1 108,201 1.2
2010 33,099 1.3 44,644 0.9 28,142 1.0 2,631 0.6 108,516 0.3
2011 33,823 2.2 44,950 0.7 28,652 1.8 2,679 1.8 110,104 1.5
2012 34,830 3.0 45,666 1.6 29,369 2.5 2,748 2.6 112,613 2.3
2013 35,887 3.0 46,668 2.2 30,207 2.9 2,829 2.9 115,591 2.6
2014 36,943 2.9 47,840 2.5 31,117 3.0 2,933 3.7 118,833 2.8
31,544
33,670
R
3.7 2.5 4.5
FO
23,258 2,380 102,467
45,031
103,653 1.2
53
Global consumer and educational book publishing market by component (US$ millions)
Component Print/audio consumer books % Change Print educational books % Change Total print/audio % Change Electronic consumer books % Change Electronic educational books % Change Total electronic % Change Total consumer % Change Total educational % Change Total % Change 2005 64,670 4.8 37,450 3.7 102,120 4.4 161 96.3 186 20.0 347 46.4 64,831 4.9 37,636 3.8 102,467 4.5 2006 65,214 0.8 37,897 1.2 103,111 1.0 311 93.2 231 24.2 542 56.2 65,525 1.1 38,128 1.3 103,653 1.2 2007 69,300 6.3 38,972 2.8 108,272 5.0 546 75.6 293 26.8 839 54.8 69,846 6.6 39,265 3.0 109,111 5.3 2008 68,443 1.2 39,849 2.3 108,292 0.0 821 50.4 372 27.0 1,193 42.2 69,264 0.8 40,221 2.4 0.3 2009p 67,496 1.4 38,911 2.4 106,407 1.7 1,280 55.9 514 38.2 1,794 2010 67,536 0.1 38,470 1.1 106,006 0.4 1,861 45.4 649 26.3 39.9 0.9 39,119 0.8 108,516 0.3 2011 68,276 1.1 38,691 0.6 106,967 0.9 2,253 21.1 884 2012 69,279 1.5 39,340 1.7 108,619 1.5 2,675 18.7 2013 70,553 1.8 40,010 1.7 110,563 1.8 3,153 17.9 1,875 42.2 5,028 25.9 73,706 2.4 41,885 3.0 115,591 2.6 2014 72,033 2.1 40,712 1.8 112,745 2.0 3,649 15.7 2,439 30.1 6,088 21.1 75,682 2.7 43,151 3.0 118,833 2.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 27.7 36.5 23.3 1.2 0.9 1.3 201014 CAGR
O
36.2 25.0 1.6 39,575 1.2 110,104 1.5 3,137 70,529
SE
2,510 69,397
50.4
ES
PR
109,485
108,201
54
FO
N LY
1,319 49.2 3,994 27.3 71,954 2.0 40,659 2.7 112,613 2.3
Business-to-business
Business-to-business includes business information, trade magazines, professional books, and directory advertising. Spending fell by 10.4 percent in 2009 as a result of the economic downturn, because each segment of the market is sensitive to the economy. An improving economy during the latter part of the forecast period will lead to increases in each category during 201214. A rebound in lending activity will boost demand for nancial information. Growth in consumer spending will revitalize advertising and marketing and generate gains in spending on marketing information. Increased investment will drive spending on industry information. Directory advertising will be hurt in the near term by the recession and over the longer run by migration of advertising from print to the Internet. Trade magazines will be adversely affected by the declining economy and falling employment but will improve as the economy strengthens. Print advertising will continue to be negatively affected by trade magazines ongoing shift to online distribution. The launch of sites with paid content will generate an incremental revenue stream for trade magazine publishers.
The overall business information market will rise at a 1.5 percent compound annual rate to $80 billion in 2014. Print directory advertising will fall by 4.6 percent compounded annually to $21 billion in 2014. Growth in digital directory advertising, projected at 19.1 percent on a compound annual basis, will lead to an overall increase beginning in 2012 but will not make up for declines in 201011, because online ad rates are much lower than print ad rates. Overall directory advertising will decrease at a 0.4 percent compound annual rate. Print advertising in trade magazines will be affected by a shift of advertising to the Internet, some of which will be recaptured on trade magazine Web sites. The trade magazine advertising market as a whole will increase at a 0.9 percent compound annual rate, while end-user spending, including spending on paid online content, will increase by 1.3 percent compounded annually. The overall trade magazine market will grow at a 1.0 percent compound annual rate to $24 billion in 2014. The overall professional book market will rise by a 1.5 percent rate compounded annually, as a 15.7 percent compound annual increase in electronic books augments a 0.5 percent increase compounded annually in print books. We expect the total business-to-business publishing market to increase at a 1.0 percent compound annual rate to $156 billion in 2014.
FO
82,984
A rebound in professional employment will boost professional books, while electronic readers with color and graphic capabilities will support growth in spending on electronic books.
PR
ES
SE
LY
55
O
3.2
SE
12,423 9.9 1,554 13,977 8.6 7,398 2.4 21,375 6.6 19,212 1.4 1,176 10.0 20,388 0.8 42,738 5.7 98,577 4.1 141,315 4.6 5.2 3.1 7.5 2.6 9.1
ES
15,293 19.3 7,583 22,876 15.1 19,482 1,069 20,551 45,330 13.1
PR
27,629
28,174
3.9
2.0 20,219 8.4 804 22.9 21,023 8.9 54,125 3.3 115,247 4.8 169,372 4.3
FO
18,066
0.7
540 20.3 18,606 0.2 49,822 5.6 103,590 4.3 153,412 4.7
56
N LY
28,534 28,595 0.8 0.2 12,147 1.5 2,037 16.6 14,184 3.5 7,585 1.8 21,769 2.9 19,359 1.0 1,603 18.5 20,962 2.1 42,779 1.3 100,016 2.0 142,795 1.8 11,963 3.7 1,747 12.4 13,710 1.9 7,449 0.7 21,159 1.0 19,176 0.2 1,353 15.1 20,529 0.7 42,244 1.2 98,073 0.5 140,317 0.7
FO
PR
ES
S
Industry overview | Global market by segment
SE
LY
57
SE
0.2 6.1 0.6 6.8
12.8
ES
37,845
37,761
PR
16,127
15,142 21,375 12.7 39,181 23.2 18,174 15.0 6,366 13.9 32,665 76,249 11.8
24,394 0.6 62,951 0.5 3.5 7,129 8.0 31,544 1.8 87,798 5.8 4.9
25,308
FO
58,865 6.5 22,674 0.8 7,694 7.9 33,670 6.7 90,265 2.8 3.4
22,498
461,873 484,406 500,920 494,203 460,457 465,880 479,989 503,923 527,406 557,756 3.0 5.0
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
58
N LY
88,339 6.6 7.7 75,575 7.5 6,965 1.8 41,336 4.1 18,249 5.9 20,204 0.2 32,958 0.6 20,696 4.7 6,625 5.1 34,830 3.0 72,667 1.6 70,281 1.8 7,090 3.6 39,711 3.5 17,231 5.6 20,160 1.7 33,154 4.1 19,772 4.5 6,305 3.0 33,823 2.2 71,524 1.0
North America
Spending fell by 6.8 percent in 2009 with declines in each segment except Internet access, TV subscriptions and license fees, and consumer and educational books. We expect a modest, 1.2 percent increase in 2010, stronger growth in 2011, and mid-single-digit gains during 201214. We expect increases in excess of 5 percent compounded annually for Internet access, Internet advertising, video games, TV subscriptions, and TV advertising. Recorded
music, newspaper publishing, and consumer magazine publishing will each be lower in 2014 than in 2009. Overall growth will average 3.9 percent compounded annually to $558 billion in 2014 from $460 billion in 2009. Canada will be the faster-growing country, with a projected 5.0 percent compound annual increase compared with 3.8 percent compound annual growth in the United States.
LY
2011
2012
49,931 4,683
FO
PR
ES
S
Industry overview | Global market by region
SE
54,614
59
United States
E&M spending in the United States fell by 7.1 percent in 2009. We expect a 1.1 percent rebound in 2010 and faster growth thereafter, averaging 3.8 percent compounded annually for the 20102014 period as a whole. Internet access at 8.8 percent compounded annually will be the fastest-growing segment during the next ve years. We also expect increases in excess of 5 percent compounded annually for Internet advertising, TV subscriptions, video
games, and TV advertising. Radio will grow by 4.6 percent compounded annually; lmed entertainment will increase at a 3.6 percent compound annual rate; and out-of-home advertising will grow at a 3.2 percent rate compounded annually. The remaining segments will either increase by less than 3 percent on a compound annual basis or decline. Overall consumer/end-user spending will grow by 3.7 percent compounded annually, while advertising will increase at a 2.6 percent compound annual rate.
N LY
201014 CAGR 8.8 62,661
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 62,661 33,400 99,687 80,278 6,656 41,162 201014 CAGR 8.8 7.7 6.5 5.3 2.4 3.6 6.4 0.5 2.8 4.6 3.2 2.5 0.3 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.9 3.8
ES
S
1,300
80,278
SE
7.7 5.3 11.6 0.3 3.1 3.8 3.2
PR
18,757 19,922 31,933 20,999 7,045 35,099 9,833 7,375 43,250 13,300 73,758 62,661 8.8 516,515
0.6
8,643
1.8
R
3,636
9.3
FO
35,099
2.5
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
60
Canada
The Canadian E&M market declined by 2.7 percent in 2009. We expect a rebound beginning in 2010, with growth averaging 5.0 percent compounded annually through 2014. Internet access at 12.0 percent compounded annually and Internet advertising at 11.7 percent on a compound annual basis will be major drivers. TV
subscriptions will grow at a 6.8 percent compound annual rate, and video games will increase by 6.6 percent compounded annually. The remaining segments will increase at rates averaging less than 5 percent on a compound annual basis or will decline. Overall consumer/ end-user spending will increase at a 4.3 percent rate compounded annually, while advertising will rise at a 3.1 percent compound annual rate.
LY N
2014 (US$ millions) 6,765
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 6,765 2,729 9,140 3,422 456 4,139 201014 CAGR 12.0 11.7 6.8 3.8 1.1 4.4 6.6 1.2 0.7 4.1 4.0 3.1 1.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.7 5.0
ES
S
224 604 1,809 1,265 420 12.0 2.7 0.4 1.0 4.0
SE
3,422
O
11.7 3.8
0.8
PR
553 457
1.6 17.4
FO
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
61
Internet access
Internet access spending rose by 8.7 percent in 2009. We expect a return to double-digit growth during 201011 followed by moderating increases as the broadband market matures. For the forecast period as a whole,
spending will rise from $45 billion in 2009 to $69 billion in 2014, a 9.1 percent compound annual increase. Canada will increase at a 12.0 percent compound annual rate during the next ve years compared with 8.8 percent compound annual growth for the United States.
N LY
2011 2012 9.4 54,614 10.3 59,740
Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by country (US$ millions)
North America United States Canada Total 2005 26,894 2,486 29,380 2006 30,744 2,809 33,553 2007 35,157 3,241 38,398 2008 37,829 3,526 41,355
SE
2009p
2010
41,110 3,831
ES
44,941
62
FO
PR
Advertising
Advertising fell by 14.9 percent in 2009 following a 5.1 percent decrease in 2008. We anticipate an additional 0.6 percent decline in 2010. Although advertising will increase during the subsequent four years, spending in 2014 will remain 8 percent lower than in 2007. Internet,
television, radio, and out-of-home advertising, as well as a small video game market, will be larger in 2014 than in 2009, while consumer magazines, newspapers, directories, and trade magazines will be smaller. Overall advertising will increase at a 2.6 percent compound annual rate from $168 billion in 2009 to $191 billion in 2014.
LY
2011 7.6
2012 8.5
2013 33,147 9.4 77,554 2.6 1,396 8.3 10,954 2.5 24,338 2.1 17,910 4.1 7,022 6.0 14,079 0.8 7,917 5.0 181,039 3.1
2014 36,129 9.0 83,700 7.9 1,524 9.2 11,342 3.5 25,099 3.1 18,628 4.0 7,465 6.3 14,311 1.6 8,488 7.2 191,080 5.5
201014 CAGR 7.9 5.2 11.7 0.2 2.9 3.6 3.2 0.4 0.5 2.6
27,921
30,303
O
10,813 5.6 25,114 13.8 16,044 2.6 6,121 3.8 14,151 3.1 7,695 11.5 167,039 0.6
70,281 1.8 1,172 13.7 10,602 2.0 23,975 4.5 16,582 3.4 6,305 3.0 14,020 0.9 7,353 4.4 168,275 0.7
75,575 7.5 1,289 10.0 10,691 0.8 23,830 0.6 17,210 3.8 6,625 5.1 13,970 0.4 7,541 2.6 175,641 4.4
S
18,975
ES
20,761 1.8 7.9 16,574 2.0 12,007 1.7 208,033 0.1 7,694
PR
7,129 8.0 16,242 4.3 11,801 4.2 207,736 5.0
FO
11,328 10.0
197,899 3.2
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
SE
11,450 19.3 29,127 27.5 15,635 17.6 6,366 13.9 14,607 6.8 8,691 20.7 167,996 14.9
63
Advertising in the United States has been declining since 2006 and fell by 15.2 percent in 2009. We expect a further, 0.5 percent decline in 2010, for a four-year cumulative decrease of 20.4 percent. We then expect advertising to increase beginning in 2011 and to rise at a 2.6 percent
compound annual rate for the forecast period as a whole. Advertising in Canada had been increasing through 2008 but declined by 9.7 percent in 2009. We project a 1.0 percent decrease in 2010 and a 3.1 percent compound annual increase through 2014.
168,275
64
FO
Consumer/end-user spending declined by 3.1 percent in 2009, led by double-digit decreases in recorded music and business-to-business and by declines in newspapers, video games, consumer magazines, and lmed entertainment. We expect a 0.7 percent increase in 2010 and progressively faster gains during 201114 that will boost spending to $297 billion in 2014, a 3.7 percent compound annual increase from $248 billion in 2009. Radio will be the fastest-growing component, with a 10.0 percent compound annual advance, boosted by a small but expanding satellite
PR
ES
The United States will increase at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate, and Canada will grow by 4.3 percent compounded annually.
Consumer/end-user spending
radio market. TV subscriptions will grow at a 6.5 percent compound annual rate, and video games by 6.1 percent compounded annually. Filmed entertainment will increase at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate, and consumer and educational books will grow by 2.5 percent on a compound annual basis, with business-to-business edging up 1.5 percent compounded annually. The remaining segments will be lower in 2014 than in 2009.
SE
N LY
175,641
181,039
SE
10,054 7.3 5.1 32,665 0.6 52,951 11.5 247,520 3.1 2,539
U
2,415 26.2 32,484 3.5 3.0 255,322 0.3 59,818
2.7
ES
PR
59,755 6.5
234,594 3.7
243,117 3.6
254,489
FO
O
9,450 6.0 2,869 13.0 33,099 1.3 50,370 4.9 249,342 0.7
LY
65
Entertainment and media spending fell by 2.8 percent in 2009. We expect a 1.9 percent rebound in 2010, with faster gains thereafter. Spending will rise to $581 billion in 2014, a 4.6 percent compound annual increase from $463 billion in 2009. Internet advertising, Internet access, video games, and TV subscriptions and license fees will each grow at rates averaging more than 5 percent on a
compound annual basis. Filmed entertainment and TV advertising will each increase by a projected 4.2 percent compounded annually, and out-of-home advertising will expand by 3.2 percent on a compound annual basis. The remaining segments will grow at annual rates averaging less than 3 percent.
N LY
2011 2012 12.0 13.9 79,647 6.1 42,356 4.7 9,192 1.3 26,747 5.2 20,327 6.1 31,447 1.1 59,024 1.4 16,787 1.5 8,635 3.8 45,666 1.6 47,060 1.5 5.3 10.5 12.5 75,092 5.3 40,440 2.5 9,077 0.4 25,427 4.1 19,151 5.7 31,113 0.3 58,190 0.6 16,532 0.8 8,317 1.9 44,950 0.7 46,374 1.2 3.8
2013 12.8 32,014 13.4 84,910 6.6 44,580 5.3 9,414 2.4 28,272 5.7 21,590 6.2 31,951 1.6 60,218 2.0 17,257 2.8 9,005 4.3 46,668 2.2 48,749 3.6 6.2
2014 10.5 36,247 13.2 89,646 5.6 47,417 6.4 9,745 3.5 29,835 5.5 22,953 6.3 32,636 2.1 61,900 2.8 17,595 2.0 9,503 5.5 47,840 2.5 50,931 4.5 6.0
201014 CAGR 11.0 12.8 5.4 4.2 0.9 4.2 6.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 3.2 1.2 0.7 4.6
87,212 9.1
22,029 11.1 3.6 2.1 9,111 2.0 24,414 0.6 18,123 7.7 31,214 2.5 57,828 2.0 16,404 0.1 8,161 0.4 44,644 0.9 46,927 4.4 1.9 71,303 39,439
PR
FO
35,037 2.6
35,695
405,277 430,440 461,715 475,951 462,772 471,602 489,715 515,853 547,932 580,814 3.1
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
66
ES
S
23,221 1.1 17,013 18.0 35,614 2.1 65,020 1.8 17,344 0.1 9,907 2.0 46,221 0.1 54,143 1.3
SE
Germany had the largest E&M market in EMEA, at $89 billion, in 2009, with the UK next, at $73 billion. France at $62 billion was the only other country above $50 billion in 2009. Led by Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab, Middle East/ Africa will be the fastest-growing area in EMEA, with a
13.0 percent compound annual increase. Central and Eastern Europe will expand at an 8.3 percent compound annual rate, and Western Europe will average 3.6 percent growth compounded annually.
2005 9,105 9,323 7,671 5,482 55,455 80,563 5,381 3,906 38,707 16,139 7,882 4,153 27,126 9,642 10,318 70,532
2006 9,723 10,047 8,158 5,757 57,938 84,336 5,793 4,283 40,591 17,251 8,401 4,447 29,070
2007 10,502 10,747 8,566 6,164 61,694 87,797 6,490 4,720 43,191 18,424 8,991 4,744
2008 10,923 11,142 8,637 6,337 63,190 89,089 6,715 4,906 43,714 9,318 18,923 4,951
2011
2012 11,258 8,762 6,526 66,748 95,790 6,788 4,989 44,868 19,277 9,633 5,436 32,336 11,743 12,848 79,726 428,433 5,433 3,793 9,500 2,884 20,836 7,467 49,913 3,512 25,534 8,461 37,507 515,853
2013 11,685 12,254 9,154 6,802 69,909 99,972 7,121 5,290 47,158 20,290 10,108 5,895 34,749 12,219 13,362 83,768 449,736 5,864 4,105 10,183 3,198 23,092 8,527 54,969 3,692 30,320 9,215 43,227 547,932
2014 12,042 12,806 9,487 7,107 72,743 104,054 7,497 5,596 49,736 21,403 10,617 6,306 37,395 12,773 13,940 87,733 471,235 6,312 4,447 10,885 3,522 25,586 9,682 60,434 3,871 35,209 10,065 49,145 580,814
201014 CAGR 2.7 3.4 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.7 5.9 5.5 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.6 5.1 5.9 5.5 9.1 9.3 13.0 8.3 3.6 16.5 7.6 13.0 4.6
O
62,723 6,417 89,905 4,590 42,025 18,029 8,916 4,837 28,925 11,055 12,026 74,187 399,809 4,888 3,376 8,566 2,392 17,421 5,862 42,505 3,272 18,534 7,482 29,288 471,602
SE
41,989 18,147 8,862 4,734 28,632 10,970 11,825 73,245 395,607 4,920 3,337 8,325 2,275 16,382 5,264 40,503 3,247 16,431 6,984 26,662 462,772
ES
PR
30,765
30,248 11,341 12,020 76,154 407,608 5,069 3,439 8,475 2,249 18,340 5,316 42,888 3,318 15,107 7,030 25,455 475,951
10,223
10,944
10,947
11,622 76,269 401,630 4,664 3,257 7,635 1,916 15,479 4,944 37,895 3,259 12,564 6,367 22,190 461,715
FO
72,084
361,385 4,212 2,761 5,958 1,270 10,898 3,477 28,576 2,995 7,471 4,850 15,316 405,277
379,049 4,452 3,070 6,686 1,625 12,953 4,152 32,938 3,091 9,667 5,695 18,453 430,440
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
LY
10,927 11,260 6,288 64,266 92,359 6,561 4,747 43,012 18,481 9,229 5,076 30,461 11,360 12,329 76,426 411,279 5,059 3,531 8,952 2,599 18,886 6,525 45,552 3,378 21,657 7,849 32,884 489,715 8,497
11,705
67
United Kingdom
The UK declined by 3.8 percent in 2009. We expect a modest increase in 2010 and healthier growth during 201214. Internet advertising, Internet access, video games, and lmed entertainment will grow at compound annual rates of 5 percent or more during the next ve
years as a whole. Overall consumer/end-user spending will increase at a 2.8 percent compound annual rate, and advertising will advance by 3.8 percent compounded annually. The projected 7.4 percent compound annual gain in Internet access will contribute to an overall spending increase of 3.7 percent compounded annually to $88 billion in 2014.
N LY
13,143
Consumer/end-user spending United Kingdom Internet access: wired and mobile Internet advertising: wired and mobile TV subscriptions and license fees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio Out-of-home advertising Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business Trade magazines Professional books Business information Directory advertising Business-to-business total Total 50,688 2.8 2014 (US$ millions) 201014 CAGR
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 13,143 9,258 13,747 6,038 2,636 7,159 5,346 4,177 9,308 1,868 1,454 5,371 201014 CAGR 7.4 10.5 3.9 4.3 4.4 5.0 6.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 3.5 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.3 3.7 0.0 3.7
S
211 995 650 1,454 4,585 1,287
ES
PR
0.3
0.9
FO
5,371
1.1 0.9 1.4 0.3 1,310 23,902 3.7 3.8 13,143 7.4 1.0
SE
4.3 13.7 1.1 1.3 0.6 3.5
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
68
Germany
In Germany, the decline in E&M spending in 2009 was a relatively mild, 0.6 percent. We expect spending to rise at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate during the next ve years to $104 billion in 2014, led by compound annual increases of 11.1 percent for Internet advertising
and 9.7 percent for Internet access spending. Consumer/ end-user spending will grow by 1.7 percent compounded annually, and advertising will increase at a 3.2 percent compound annual rate. Other than Internet advertising and Internet access, no other segment will average 5 percent growth on a compound annual basis.
LY
Consumer/end-user spending Germany Internet access: wired and mobile Internet advertising: wired and mobile TV subscriptions and license fees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio Out-of-home advertising Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business Trade magazines Professional books Business information Directory advertising Business-to-business total Total 60,339 1.7 2014 (US$ millions) 201014 CAGR
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 18,369 7,540 13,872 5,915 2,092 4,411 201014 CAGR 9.7 11.1 2.7 3.3 0.3 3.9 4.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.9 1.9 2.9 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 3.3
U
122 2,122 6,189 1,036 1,182 12.7 1.6 0.5 2.1 1.9
SE
O
11.1 3.3
18,369
ES
0.0
PR
3,865
6,330
0.9
0.3
R FO
1.9 2.8 0.1 1.2 1,768 25,346 1.3 3.2 18,369 9.7 1,522 3.0
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
69
France
We expect a comparable 3.3 percent increase in E&M spending in France during the next ve years, following a 2.0 percent decrease in 2009. Internet advertising will be the fastest-growing segment, with a projected 9.9 percent compound annual increase, and Internet access spending
will expand at a 7.4 percent compound annual rate. Video games at 5.4 percent and TV subscriptions and license fees at 5.2 percent will be the only other segments to average more than 5 percent compound annual growth. Overall consumer/end-user spending will grow at a 2.4 percent compound annual rate, while advertising will increase by 2.0 percent compounded annually.
N LY
15,009
Consumer/end-user spending France Internet access: wired and mobile Internet advertising: wired and mobile TV subscriptions and license fees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio Out-of-home advertising Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business Trade magazines Professional books Business information Directory advertising Business-to-business total Total 45,185 2.4 2014 (US$ millions) 201014 CAGR
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 15,009 2,746 12,778 3,680 1,105 4,483 4,296 6,377 4,831 2,127 1,189 8,064 201014 CAGR 7.4 9.9 5.2 1.8 1.2 3.6 5.4 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 1.0 3.3
S
150 1,489 1,868 791 1,189 651
ES
0.5 1.3 0.8
U
12.8 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.7
FO
8,064
820
PR
SE
1.8
1,196 3,406
1,123 12,549
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
70
Russia
Russia experienced the steepest decline in E&M spending in the world in 2009, falling by 10.7 percent. We expect the market to begin to recover in 2010 and to grow at a 9.3 percent compound annual rate during the next ve years, led by double-digit increases in Internet
advertising, TV subscriptions and license fees, Internet access spending, video games, and consumer magazine publishing. We also expect high-single-digit gains in TV advertising, out-of-home advertising, lmed entertainment, and radio. Consumer/end-user spending will increase at a 5.9 percent compound annual rate, while advertising will grow by 10.2 percent compounded annually.
LY
Consumer/end-user spending Russia Internet access: wired and mobile Internet advertising: wired and mobile TV subscriptions and license fees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio Out-of-home advertising Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business Trade magazines Professional books Business information Directory advertising Business-to-business total Total 9,990 5.9 402 1,781 1,275 476 0.4 8.4 11.1 1,856 17.0 2014 (US$ millions) 201014 CAGR
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 5,902 1,695 1,856 5,168 402 1,781 201014 CAGR 15.0 24.4 17.0 9.5 0.4 8.4 11.1 11.1 3.0 8.2 9.5 1.5 3.7 3.6 3.3 0.2 2.8 9.3
O
24.4 9.5 14.9 4.6 9.1 8.2 9.5
5,902
SE
5,168 12 541 447 420 1,349
ES
0.0
R FO
PR
0 1,636 28 291 817
1,428
1.4
1.5 0.7 3.6 3.3 239 9,694 0.2 10.2 5,902 15.0 68 5.1
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
71
Internet access
Internet access spending rose by 10 percent in 2009 despite the recession, and we project an 11.0 percent compound annual increase during the next ve years. Overall spending will rise from $80 billion in 2009 to $135 billion in 2014. Germany had the largest Internet access market in EMEA, at $11.6 billion, in 2009, followed by France at $10.5 billion
and the UK at $9.2 billion. Italy at $7.9 billion, Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab at $7.1 billion, and Spain at $6 billion were the only other countries above $5 billion in 2009. Western Europe will expand at an 8.4 percent compound annual rate during the next ve years; Central and Eastern Europe will grow by 14.9 percent compounded annually; and Middle East/Africa will increase at a 21.4 percent compound annual rate.
N LY
2011 10.5 2012 12.0 96,410 107,956
72
FO
PR
ES
SE
Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by country (US$ millions)
EMEA Western Europe Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Western Europe total Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Russia Turkey Central and Eastern Europe total Middle East/Africa Israel Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab South Africa Middle East/Africa total EMEA total 544 1,372 728 2,644 47,195 626 2,767 1,025 4,418 55,768 687 4,373 1,138 6,198 64,634 717 5,653 1,376 7,746 72,674 729 7,058 1,540 9,327 79,907 740 8,617 1,695 11,052 87,212 791 10,877 1,884 13,552 96,410 859 13,735 2,129 16,723 107,956 955 17,301 2,443 20,699 121,781 1,041 20,825 2,767 24,633 134,578 7.4 24.2 12.4 21.4 11.0 911 250 764 1,260 1,325 1,063 717 6,287 7,953 237 174 5,886 2,138 998 540 3,409 1,526 1,350 6,657 41,520 1,559 1,499 1,247 850 7,451 9,053 309 209 6,448 2,305 1,105 703 4,181 1,615 1,547 7,344 47,425 860 1,856 1,701 1,418 972 8,825 9,802 423 292 7,138 2,608 1,208 806 4,886 1,817 1,691 1,961 1,889 1,524 1,067 9,853 10,506 625 374 7,545 2,739 1,307 908 1,993 2,003 1,542 1,116 10,490 11,572 854 419 7,878 2,784 970 2,042 2,090 1,566 1,207 11,209 12,962 1,088 466 8,263 2,093 2,179 1,635 1,285 11,771 14,247 532 8,837 2,933 1,516 1,153 8,001 2,184 2,029 10,253 71,860 1,229 873 1,711 1,078 3,995 2,112 10,998 2,201 2,317 1,748 1,359 12,729 1,338 591 9,546 3,119 1,633 1,297 9,233 2,303 2,143 11,203 78,413 1,418 1,018 1,930 1,252 4,648 2,554 12,820 15,653 2,330 2,492 1,883 1,457 14,110 17,055 1,513 672 10,443 3,367 1,736 1,531 10,634 2,442 2,276 12,281 86,222 1,642 1,188 2,222 1,442 5,293 3,073 14,860 2,390 2,639 1,983 1,566 15,009 18,369 1,690 728 11,338 3,598 1,847 1,723 12,017 2,609 2,406 13,143 93,055 1,851 1,355 2,519 1,625 5,902 3,638 16,890 3.7 5.7 5.2 7.0 7.4 9.7 14.6 11.7 7.6 5.3 6.2 12.2 14.8 4.8 5.3 7.4 8.4 10.5 14.1 12.4 14.9 15.0 20.1 14.9 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201014 CAGR
5,492
ES
2,005
1,777
PR
8,064
8,701
FO
399
171
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
SE
1,368 6,037 2,060 1,861 9,209 62,156 1,126 700 1,402 810 2,929 1,457 8,424
O
2,829 1,446 1,027 6,713 2,100 1,929 9,573 66,510 1,147 785 1,561 929 3,489 1,739 9,650
LY
1,212
73
Advertising
Advertising plunged 13.1 percent in 2009, reecting the impact of the recession. We project the market to stabilize in 2010 and then turn around. During the next ve years, advertising will increase at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate to $148 billion in 2014 from $123 billion in 2009. A small video game segment will be the fastestgrowing category, at 13.5 percent on a compound annual basis. Internet advertising will expand at a 12.8 percent compound annual rate; TV advertising will increase 4.2 percent compounded annually; and the remaining segments will grow by less than 4 percent annually or will decline.
Germany had the largest advertising market in EMEA, at $22 billion, with the UK second, at $20 billion in 2009. France and Italy were next, at $11 billion each, followed by Spain at $8 billion, Russia at $6 billion, and Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab and the Netherlands at $5 billion each. Advertising in Western Europe will rise at a 2.4 percent compound annual rate during the next ve years; Central and Eastern Europe will average 8.5 percent on a compound annual basis; and Middle East/Africa will increase at a 10.3 percent compound annual rate.
SE
N LY
2010 11.1 39,439 2.1 509 19.5 10,065 2.7 28,347 3.3 6,204 2.4 8,161 0.4 8,912 6.3 4,825 4.7 0.1 2011 24,793 12.5 40,440 2.5 598 17.5 10,138 0.7 28,527 0.6 6,250 0.7 8,317 1.9 8,775 1.5 4,852 0.6 2.6 2012 28,237 13.9 42,356 4.7 679 13.5 10,410 2.7 29,096 2.0 6,408 2.5 8,635 3.8 8,730 0.5 5,059 4.3 4.6 2013 32,014 13.4 44,580 5.3 737 8.5 10,777 3.5 29,939 2.9 6,637 3.6 9,005 4.3 8,763 0.4 5,361 6.0 5.3 2014 36,247 13.2 47,417 6.4 802 8.8 11,254 4.4 31,141 4.0 6,939 4.6 9,503 5.5 8,844 0.9 5,728 6.8 6.1 2.5 3.7 1.4 3.2 1.8 1.2 1.7 13.5 4.2 12.8 201014 CAGR 370 29.4 1.8 3.7 7,483 1.4 9,907 2.0 0.8 6,132 0.3 1.2
ES
46.7 3.1 13,267 13,029 35,055 36,395 4.4 7,592 5.3 9,709 7.6 10,905 4.3 6,113 4.2 8.5 10,823
S
44,315
PR
FO
119,251 128,910 139,922 141,620 123,122 123,284 126,539 132,382 139,336 147,863 13.1
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
74
U
6.2 38,646 12.8 426 15.1 10,346 20.6 29,323 16.4 6,356 15.1 8,127 18.0 9,512 12.1 5,065 17.4
19,837
22,029
2005 1,822 3,256 2,012 1,556 12,304 20,700 3,097 1,285 12,147 4,729 2,333 1,486 9,500 2,480 3,854 21,163 103,724 1,520 880 1,784 309
2006 1,993 3,650 2,226 1,636 12,829 22,305 3,375 1,452 12,607 5,371 2,507 1,483 10,315 2,786 4,132 21,593 110,260
2007 2,184 3,923 2,278 1,812 13,227 23,678 3,854 1,599 13,118 5,757 2,732 1,529 11,261 3,001 4,577 22,914
2008 2,367 3,951 2,154 1,875 13,063 23,648 3,840 1,619 12,855 5,788 2,806 1,498 10,141 3,149 4,727
2009p 2,027 3,553 1,775 1,579 11,357 21,624 3,287 1,282 11,217 5,017 2,315
2012 2,189 3,623 1,667 1,602 11,867 3,247 23,053 23,053 1,269 11,046 4,905 2,394 1,160 7,866 2,876 4,684 21,552 105,000 1,855 1,001 2,824 548 7,657 2,471 16,356 908 7,218 2,900 11,026 132,382
2013 2,254 3,703 1,685 1,660 12,156 24,048 3,319 1,328 11,349 5,135 2,500 1,171 8,123 3,000 4,862 22,701 108,994 1,947 1,076 3,011 642 8,583 2,796 18,055 936 8,197 3,154 12,287 139,336
2014 2,330 3,804 1,720 1,724 12,549 25,346 3,420 1,399 11,790 5,430 2,658 1,195 8,526 3,152 5,099 23,902 114,044 2,063 1,167 3,189 747 9,694 3,148 20,008 969 9,372 3,470 13,811 147,863
201014 CAGR 2.8 1.4 0.6 1.8 2.0 3.2 0.8 1.8 1.0 1.6 2.8 0.0 0.9 3.0 3.1 3.8 2.4 2.8 4.9 5.0 12.4 10.2 12.6 8.5 2.7 12.6 7.2 10.3 3.7
O
10,874 4,776 2,208 1,176 7,837 2,694 4,400 20,125 100,270 1,732 884 2,547 417 6,287 2,005 13,872 859 5,689 2,594 9,142 123,284
SE
1,197 8,171 2,724 4,372 19,836 101,333 1,798 917 2,495 416 5,960 1,741 13,327 849 5,167 2,446 8,462 123,122
ES
22,416
PR
117,444 1,821
115,897 2,005 1,091 2,655 551 8,239 2,249 16,790 916 5,223 2,794 8,933 141,620
1,730 968
1,023 2,355 466 6,946 2,282 14,893 915 4,079 2,591 7,585 139,922
FO
2,032 394
4,268
128,910
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
LY
10,856 4,772 2,294 1,153 7,748 2,781 4,505 20,609 101,739 1,765 933 2,651 458 6,889 2,152 14,848 881 6,401 2,670 9,952 126,539
75
Consumer/end-user spending
Consumer/end-user spending fell by 0.7 percent in 2009. We look for a 0.5 percent increase in 2010 and faster growth in subsequent years. Spending will rise from $260 billion in 2009 to $298 billion in 2014, a 2.8 percent compound annual increase. Video games will be the fastest-growing category, with a projected 6.2 percent compound annual increase. TV subscriptions will expand by 5.4 percent compounded annually, and lmed entertainment will grow at a 4.2 percent compound annual rate. Radio and consumer and educational books will each
increase at a 1.2 percent compound annual rate, while the remaining segments will grow by 1 percent or less. Consumer magazines will be lower in 2014 than in 2009. Germany was the largest market in 2009, at $55 billion, and the UK and France were next, at $44 billion and $40 billion, respectively. Italy was a distant fourth, at $23 billion. We expect Western Europe to increase at a 2.6 percent compound annual rate during the next ve years; Central and Eastern Europe will expand at a rate of 4.6 percent compounded annually; and Middle East/Africa will average 3.8 percent on a compound annual basis.
N LY
2011 5.3 9,077 0.4 25,427 4.1 18,553 5.3 20,975 0.8 29,663 0.6 10,282 0.8 44,950 0.7 32,747 1.3 266,766 2.2 2012 79,647 6.1 9,192 1.3 26,747 5.2 19,648 5.9 21,037 0.3 29,928 0.9 10,379 0.9 45,666 1.6 33,271 1.6 275,515 3.3 75,092
2013 84,910 6.6 9,414 2.4 28,272 5.7 20,853 6.1 21,174 0.7 30,279 1.2 10,620 2.3 46,668 2.2 34,625 4.1 286,815 4.1
2014 89,646 5.6 9,745 3.5 29,835 5.5 22,151 6.2 21,382 1.0 30,759 1.6 10,656 0.3 47,840 2.5 36,359 5.0 298,373 4.0
201014 CAGR 5.4 0.9 4.2 6.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.0 2.8
U
9,296 3.6 4.5 16,401 1.5 21,668 4.1 29,685 0.9 10,061 2.0 45,055 2.5 34,512 7.2 259,743 0.7 24,261
ES
16,643 1.3 0.9 2.8 2.5 7.2 4.6
PR
14,137 22.9
22,824 0.3 29,551 0.8 1.7 45,031 0.7 35,315 5.5 245,762 2.9 9,475
23,120
FO
9,315 3.0
76
SE
71,303 3.6 9,111 2.0 24,414 0.6 17,614 7.4 21,149 2.4 29,481 0.7 10,200 1.4 44,644 0.9 33,190 3.8 261,106 0.5
S
45,037 233,438 2,017 1,760 4,498 1,034 8,081 2,053 19,443
ES
PR
45,291
FO
1,703 873
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
SE
14,424 6,186 5,592 44,200 232,118 1,996 1,720 4,428 1,049 7,493 2,066 18,752
O
22,888 5,262 10,424 2,634 14,375 6,261 5,697 44,489 233,029 2,009 1,707 4,458 1,046 7,645 2,118 18,983
LY
77
Asia Pacic
Entertainment and media spending in Asia Pacic rose by 1.3 percent in 2009, down from a 6.7 percent advance in 2008. We expect spending during the next ve years to increase at a 6.4 percent compound annual rate to $475 billion in 2014 from $348 billion in 2009. Doubledigit compound annual increases are projected for video
games, Internet advertising, and TV subscriptions and license fees. TV advertising will expand at a 7.4 percent compound annual rate; lmed entertainment will grow by 7.2 percent compounded annually; and we expect increases in excess of 5 percent compounded annually for Internet access and out-of-home advertising.
13.2
O
14.9 35,348 10.3 7.3 9,263 4.8 23,731 7.1 26,087 16.1 14,937 1.9 51,646 1.6 7,991 4.4 9,164 5.4 28,652 1.8 19,189 0.9 388,223 6.2 39,186
19,850
SE
32,041 9.6 36,512 5.8 8,837 5.0 22,160 7.1 22,474 15.8 14,660 2.4 50,831 0.0 7,657 2.8 8,695 1.6 28,142 1.0 19,023 3.0 365,656 5.0
34,513 6.3 9.0 6.8 19,411 14.4 15,025 9.5 50,840 3.8 7,449 2.4 8,562 9.5 27,866 0.9 19,621 8.1 348,172 1.3 8,419
9.5
ES
PR
19,373
20,684
14,332 27.5
16,961 18.3
FO
16,841 2.2
16,811 0.2 51,893 3.1 7,306 1.9 9,354 7.1 26,768 8.7 21,069 5.6 322,009 8.8
16,598 1.3 52,874 1.9 7,634 4.5 9,459 1.1 28,108 5.0 21,348 1.3 343,579 6.7
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
78
N LY
6.4 22,732 14.5 39,095 10.6 42,232 7.8 9,584 3.5 25,372 6.9 30,528 17.0 15,367 2.9 53,142 2.9 8,358 4.6 9,799 6.9 29,369 2.5 19,688 2.6 414,574 6.8
Japan at $164 billion is by far the dominant country, accounting for 47 percent of total spending in Asia Pacic in 2009 and the second-largest country in the world, behind the United States. Excluding Japan, E&M spending in Asia Pacic will increase at a projected 9.2 percent
compound annual rate. The Peoples Republic of China is second, at $76 billion. South Korea at $29 billion, Australia at $22 billion, and India at $15 billion were other countries above $10 billion in 2009.
O
166,300 3,926 3,717 1,644 3,273 2,804 30,094 8,687 5,944 1,418 365,656
SE
3,613 1,498 3,014 2,688 28,836 8,515 5,685 1,244 348,172
ES
2,678
PR
8,120
5,504
FO
295,875
322,009
343,579
LY
94,868 6,016 17,942 8,850 171,202 4,145 3,902 2,198 3,661 2,860 31,822 8,980 6,342 1,691 388,223
23,744
79
Japan
E&M spending in Japan declined by 2.9 percent in 2009. We look for a modest rebound in 2010, but we expect Japan to be the slowest-growing country in Asia Pacic during the next ve years, with a projected 2.8 percent increase compounded annually to $189 billion in 2014. Internet advertising, video games, and lmed entertainment will be relatively healthy, with compound
annual increases of 9.8 percent, 7.4 percent, and 6.4 percent, respectively. TV subscriptions and license fees will grow at a 4.6 percent compound annual rate; recorded music will increase at a 4.0 percent compound annual rate; and Internet access spending will advance by 3.8 percent compounded annually. Total consumer/enduser spending will grow at a 3.0 percent compound annual rate, while advertising will increase by 1.3 percent on a compound annual basis.
Consumer/end-user spending Japan Internet access: wired and mobile Internet advertising: wired and mobile TV subscriptions and license fees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio Out-of-home advertising Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business Trade magazines Professional books Business information Directory advertising Business-to-business total Total 86,061 3.0 8,384 15,053 10,301 5,553 13,607 4.0 6.4 7.3 14,030 4.6 2014 (US$ millions) 201014 CAGR
N LY
58,950
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 58,950 14,672 14,030 15,321 8,384 15,053 201014 CAGR 3.8 9.8 4.6 0.9 4.0 6.4 7.4 0.9 1.7 0.3 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.0 1.3 3.1 1.4 2.8
U
239
ES
S
13.1 2.9 3.6 1.8 1.5
SE
0.9
PR
0.6 1.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
0.3
2,698
FO
R
10,833 865 1,693 3,044
676
2.4
1,669 43,862
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
80
China
The PRC will continue to be among the faster-growing countries during the next ve years, with a projected 12.0 percent compound annual increase. Double-digit annual gains during the next ve years are projected for
Internet advertising, TV subscriptions and license fees, TV advertising, recorded music, lmed entertainment, video games, radio, and out-of-home advertising. Overall consumer/end-user spending will increase at a 13.2 percent compound annual rate, and advertising will expand by 13.5 percent compounded annually.
Internet advertising: wired and mobile TV subscriptions and license fees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio Out-of-home advertising Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business Trade magazines Professional books Business information Directory advertising Business-to-business total Total 64,712 13.2 286 2,549 18,974 3,522 8,654 13.3 16.1 33.5 6.9 13,536 20.2
8,481 15,147
China
201014 CAGR
201014 CAGR
LY
Consumer/end-user spending
Advertising
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 29,625 8,481 13,536 15,147 286 2,549 19,065 4,364 15,007 2,227 4,846 11,428 201014 CAGR 8.0 25.1 20.2 14.6 13.3 16.1 33.5 7.9 5.4 12.3 15.0 1.8 9.5 4.6 7.4 6.3 6.5 12.0
29,625
25.1
U
91 842 6,353 2,227 4,846 25.7 12.6 4.6 12.3 15.0 178 13.6
PR
FO
ES
6.0 1.8 7.6 4.6 7.4
SE
14.6
1,615 39,038
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
81
India
We expect a comparable 11.8 percent compound annual increase in India during the next ve years. Double-digit annual growth is projected for each segment except recorded music, which we expect will decline; consumer
magazines; consumer and educational book publishing; and business-to-business. Overall consumer/enduser spending will increase at a 9.7 percent compound annual rate, and advertising will grow by 13.5 percent compounded annually.
India Internet access: wired and mobile Internet advertising: wired and mobile TV subscriptions and license fees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio Out-of-home advertising Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business Trade magazines Professional books Business information Directory advertising Business-to-business total Total
201014 CAGR
N LY
2,142
Consumer/end-user spending
Advertising
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 2,142 532 5,742 3,504 107 3,400 384 654 4,898 440 563 2,452 201014 CAGR 21.8 28.3 11.1 13.4 1.4 12.4 27.0 8.6 10.1 17.0 11.5 6.4 9.9 4.7 9.0 5.2 7.8 11.8
3,504 107 3,400 379 146 1,433 1.4 12.4 27.4 6.4 4.8
S
508 3,465 440 563 61
U
5 10.8 9.3 12.9 17.0 11.5 10.5
FO
2,452
PR
ES
6.4 5.9 4.7 9.0
SE
5,742
11.1
69 200 409
200 409
45 723 25,468
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
82
Internet access
Internet access growth dropped to 5.8 percent in 2009 from double-digit increases during the prior four years. We expect growth to remain at mid single digits, averaging 6.2 percent compounded annually to $126 billion from $93 billion in 2009.
Japan, the PRC, and South Korea were the dominant countries, with spending at $49 billion, $20 billion, and $11 billion, respectively, in 2009. Taiwan at $2.5 billion, Australia at $2.3 billion, and Indonesia at $2 billion were the only other countries above $1 billion. The top six countries in 2009 accounted for 93 percent of total access spending in Asia Pacic.
LY
2011 6.4
2012 6.4
Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by country (US$ millions)
SE
N
6.8
99,788
106,137
112,882
China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Total
ES
Australia
1,701
1,779
2,010
Asia Pacic
2005
2006
2008
2009p 2,267
2010 2,297 22,786 897 917 2,337 50,988 886 742 558 1,061 672 11,770 2,545 728 604 99,788
2011 2,406 24,449 941 1,087 2,532 53,314 939 825 1,047 1,330 629 12,350 2,651 881 756 106,137
2012 2,534 26,187 988 1,351 2,747 55,716 1,023 948 1,541 1,707 680 12,662 2,750 1,093 955 112,882
2013 2,717 27,951 1,061 1,735 3,008 57,604 1,111 1,086 2,391 2,161 752 12,842 2,888 1,324 1,171 119,802
2014 2,921 29,625 1,136 2,142 3,251 58,950 1,215 1,234 3,229 2,637 826 13,005 3,050 1,561 1,390 126,172
201014 CAGR 5.2 8.0 5.5 21.8 10.7 3.8 9.1 12.9 47.4 23.8 6.6 2.6 4.4 20.4 21.5 6.2
2,285 863
20,201 870 799 1,956 48,842 787 672 464 908 599 11,466 2,459 617 526 93,433
PR
227 41,780 392 505 396 271 452 8,884 1,804 485 250 67,208
45,399
47,965 651 622 408 790 494 10,801 1,902 540 437 88,299
FO
365 190 442 7,585 1,764 704 169 57,202
83
Advertising
Advertising declined by 6.3 percent in 2009. We expect the market to increase by 3.4 percent in 2010 and then grow at mid- to high-single-digit rates through 2014, averaging 6.6 percent compounded annually for the forecast period
as a whole. We project a 15.8 percent compound annual increase for a small video game market and 14.3 percent growth compounded annually for Internet advertising. TV advertising will grow at a projected 7.4 percent compound annual rate, and out-of-home and radio advertising will each expand by 5.9 percent compounded annually.
N LY
19,850 14.9 7.3 22,732 14.5 7.8 382 15.4 4,614 3.8 24,531 4.4 5,568 6.2 9,799 6.9 4,973 2.4 1,237 3.8 7.3 39,186 331 20.4 4,444 2.9 23,490 1.9 5,245 5.9 9,164 5.4 4,857 0.4 1,192 2.1 6.2 42,232
Asia Pacic
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009p
2010
2011
2012
2013 26,035 14.5 45,657 8.1 422 10.5 4,818 4.4 25,863 5.4 5,961 7.1 10,546 7.6 5,108 2.7 1,288 4.1 7.9
2014 29,763 14.3 49,226 7.8 472 11.8 5,033 4.5 27,285 5.5 6,379 7.0 11,412 8.2 5,266 3.1 1,346 4.5 8.0
201014 CAGR 14.3 7.4 15.8 2.2 3.1 5.9 5.9 0.9 1.4 6.6
U
23,379 4,784 4.4 8,562 9.5 5,043 13.3 1,258 19.0 95,414 6.3
S
1.1 2.1 6.4 2.9
ES
9,459 5,817 1,553 6.2 0.3 5.8
PR
5,697 1,659
FO
1,629
22.7 8.1
88,644
93,527
98,923 101,785
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
84
SE
4,320 4.5 23,057 1.4 4,954 3.6 8,695 1.6 4,836 4.1 1,167 7.2 3.4
Japan at $41 billion in 2009 was the leading country, with the PRC second, at $21 billion, and Australia third, at $10 billion, together accounting for 75 percent of total advertising in Asia Pacic. Excluding Japan, advertising
growth for the remaining countries during the next ve years will average 10.0 percent on a compound annual basis.
SE
1,046 765 3,807 1,902 2,462 365 95,414
1,032
ES
4,312
PR
2,203 295
2,151 338
2,612
2,546 101,785
93,527
98,923
FO
LY
4,568 40,499 807 1,336 288 1,199 822 4,558 1,961 2,754 457 104,801
85
Consumer/end-user spending
Consumer/end-user spending rose by 3.8 percent in 2009, down from a 5.6 percent increase in 2008. We expect a 5.0 percent advance in 2010, with growth of 6 percent or more during 201114. For the forecast period as a whole, growth will average 6.4 percent compounded annually from $159 billion in 2009 to $218 billion in 2014. We project video games to expand at a 16.3 percent compound annual rate, TV subscriptions and license
fees by 10.0 percent compounded annually, and lmed entertainment by 7.2 percent on a compound annual basis. Growth in the remaining segments will be less than 5 percent compounded annually. Japan at $74 billion in 2009 was more than twice that of the PRC, which was second, at $35 billion. South Korea totaled $14 billion, with Australia at $10 billion and India at $9 billion.
N LY
2011 10.3 9,263 4.8 23,731 7.1 25,756 16.0 10,493 1.5 28,156 1.4 2,746 1.6 28,652 1.8 13,140 0.9 177,285 6.0 2012 10.6 9,584 3.5 25,372 6.9 30,146 17.0 10,753 2.5 28,611 1.6 2,790 1.6 29,369 2.5 13,478 2.6 189,198 6.7 35,348 39,095
2013 42,986 10.0 9,952 3.8 27,355 7.8 35,030 16.2 11,084 3.1 29,115 1.8 2,839 1.8 30,207 2.9 14,111 4.7 202,679 7.1
2014 47,135 9.7 10,384 4.3 29,266 7.0 40,865 16.7 11,432 3.1 29,646 1.8 2,871 1.1 31,117 3.0 14,887 5.5 217,603 7.4
201014 CAGR 10.0 4.3 7.2 16.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 2.2 2.2 6.4
U
20,684 6.8 19,184 14.4 10,503 5.5 27,461 1.3 2,665 1.4 27,866 0.9 13,320 4.7 159,325 3.8
S
11,120 0.7 27,102 4.5 2,629 1.6 28,108 5.0 13,978 1.9 153,495 5.6
ES
2.6 1.6 8.7 6.0 7.6
PR
11,197 0.3
25,270
25,932 2,588
FO
86
SE
22,160 7.1 22,199 15.7 10,340 1.6 27,774 1.1 2,703 1.4 28,142 1.0 13,020 2.3 167,216 5.0
SE
13,563 4,154 353 159,325 2,606
ES
153,495
FO
PR
O
1,356 14,196 4,233 2,639 406 167,216
LY
1,741
87
Latin America
Latin America was the fast-growing region in 2009, with a 3.9 percent increase. We expect Latin America to continue to be the fastest-growing region, with a projected 8.8 percent compound annual increase to $77 billion in 2014
from $50 billion in 2009. We expect double-digit compound annual growth in Internet advertising and Internet access spending and a 9.3 percent compound annual gain in video games and radio. Out-of-home advertising will increase
O
7.4 620 3.3 0.2 11.3 3.3 4.0 7.7 8.3 0.6 0.1 5.8
SE
11,258 5.3 11.5 2,427 1,254 3,161 6,094 1,238 1,109 2.3 5.6 0.5 2.8 2.9 2,631 3,149 53,436 2.1 3.9 3.9
U
2,431 1,127 3,061 5,858 1,150 1,024 2,615 3,151 50,489
11.2 2,180 4.3 23.8 3,241 3.9 5,830 5.8 1,119 6.4 995 7.1 2,672 6.2 3,279 3.7
ES
PR
1,102
29.5
2,811
3,118 10.9 5,511 11.7 1,052 16.1 929 7.0 2,517 2.9 3,162 7.7 43,930 15.7
FO
4,935 9.3 906 11.0 868 15.7 2,447 2.8 2,936 9.1
37,982 13.7
48,616 10.7
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
88
N LY
1,078 15.5 6.5 11,994 6.5 611 1.5 2,556 5.3 1,382 10.2 3,312 4.8 6,362 4.4 1,342 8.4 1,208 8.9 2,679 1.8 3,230 2.6 57,680 7.9 9,426 10,297
by 8.8 percent compounded annually, TV subscriptions will expand at an 8.0 percent compound annual rate, and TV advertising will grow by 7.9 percent compounded annually. Filmed entertainment will increase at a 5.2 percent compound annual rate, and consumer magazines and newspapers will each expand at a rate of 5.1 percent
compounded annually. The remaining segments will average 4 percent or less compounded annually. Brazil and Mexico were the dominant countries, at $23 billion and $12 billion, respectively, in 2009, together accounting for 69 percent of total spending in Latin America.
LY
2011
2012
7,621
8,355
SE
50,489
O
12,133 1,570 53,436
FO
PR
ES
S
Industry overview | Global market by region
89
Brazil
After increasing at double-digit annual rates through 2008, growth moderated to 4.4 percent in 2009. We expect a pickup in 2010 and high-single-digit gains during 201114. Growth will average 8.7 percent compounded annually
during the entire forecast period, led by double-digit compound annual increases in Internet access, radio, Internet advertising, and video games. Consumer/enduser spending will expand at a 5.3 percent compound annual rate, and advertising will grow by 8.7 percent compounded annually.
Brazil Internet access: wired and mobile Internet advertising: wired and mobile TV subscriptions and license fees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio Out-of-home advertising Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business Trade magazines Professional books Business information Directory advertising Business-to-business total Total
201014 CAGR
N LY
8,444
Consumer/end-user spending
Advertising
Total 2014 (US$ millions) 8,444 988 4,479 8,426 233 1,198 498 2,438 3,968 928 448 1,610 201014 CAGR 15.3 12.7 7.9 9.8 4.4 5.0 10.0 5.6 0.0 13.5 6.6 2.8 7.2 2.8 4.3 3.8 4.4 8.7
8,426 233 1,198 487 1,277 2,220 4.4 5.0 10.0 3.7 3.3
S
11 1,161 1,748 928 448 209
ES
2.8 3.5 2.8 4.3
U
12.9 7.9 5.6 13.5 6.6 8.8
FO
1,610
82
PR
SE
4,479
7.9
269 759
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
90
Internet access
Internet access spending will rise from $10 billion in 2009 to $21 billion in 2014, a 16.4 percent compound annual increase.
Brazil was the leader at $4 billion in 2009, with Mexico and Argentina each at less than $2 billion.
SE
Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by country (US$ millions)
Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela Total 2005 836 1,647 183 269 795 75 3,805 2006 1,016 2,238 222 377 1,004 101 4,958 2007 1,301 3,025 279 635 1,250 136 2008 1,583 3,698 313 1,014 181 8,460 2009p 1,728 339 1,419 1,942 211 9,779 4,140
LY
2010
1,975 372
FO
PR
ES
6,626
S
1,671
91
Advertising
Latin America was the only region where advertising increased in 2009, although growth slowed to 0.5 percent from 8.1 percent in 2008. Growth for the ve-year forecast period will average 7.7 percent compounded annually to $28 billion in 2014 from $19 billion in 2009. Internet advertising will expand at a projected 15.9 percent
compound annual rate, and a tiny video game advertising market will increase by 14.4 percent on a compound annual basis. Brazil was the leader in 2009, at $9 billion, with Mexico next, at $4 billion, together constituting 71 percent of the market in Latin America.
N LY
2011 2012 17.2 9.5 38 11.8 1,549 8.8 3,965 6.9 1,474 9.8 1,318 9.1 922 4.5 347 10.9 23,574 8.8 1,078 15.5 6.5 34 21.4 1,424 7.6 3,708 5.8 1,342 8.4 1,208 8.9 882 2.3 313 7.9 21,667 6.7 1,263 11,994 13,131
2013 1,468 16.2 14,106 7.4 43 13.2 1,668 7.7 4,237 6.9 1,623 10.1 1,439 9.2 983 6.6 382 10.1 25,378 7.7
2014 1,704 16.1 15,346 8.8 47 9.3 1,800 7.9 4,580 8.1 1,794 10.5 1,559 8.3 1,058 7.6 420 9.9 27,567 8.6
201014 CAGR 15.9 7.9 14.4 7.5 6.6 9.3 8.8 3.9 8.5 7.7
U
14.3 1,255 12.7 3,321 0.3 1,150 2.8 1,024 2.9 875 5.4 279 6.7 19,050 0.5
S
3,332 6.4 1,119 6.4 995 7.1 925 3.5 299 8.3 18,951 8.1
ES
PR
11.0 868
FO
15.7 768
17.9 238
14,912 15.1
Note: Each of television, radio, newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in the respective segments and in the Internet advertising segment but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
92
SE
16.7 1,323 5.4 3,506 5.6 1,238 7.7 1,109 8.3 862 1.5 290 3.9 20,303 6.6
FO
PR
ES
Consumer/end-user spending rose by 2.1 percent in 2009, down from a 7.2 percent increase in 2008. We expect growth to remain sluggish through 2011 and then return to increases of 6 percent or more. Spending will rise from $22 billion in 2009 to $28 billion in 2014, a 5.5 percent compound annual increase. Video games at 9.2 percent compounded annually and TV subscriptions
SE
Consumer/end-user spending
and license fees at 8.0 percent compounded annually will be the fastest-growing categories, followed by lmed entertainment at 5.2 percent compounded annually. The remaining segments will grow by 3.3 percent or less compounded annually or will decline. Brazil at $10 billion and Mexico at $5 billion were the leading countries in 2009, accounting for 70 percent of the total.
O
Industry overview | Global market by region
LY
93
O
0.6 0.0 2.4
SE
1.6 2,631 1,997 22,179 2.1
2,615 2.1
ES
1,997 2.8
PR
19,776 9.2
21,205 7.2
21,660
94
FO
18,112
N LY
1,888 1,957 3.7 2,742 3.3 2,748 2.6 2,111 3.7 24,648 6.3 2,654 2.6 2,679 1.8 2,035 1.9 23,197 4.6
FO
PR
ES
S
Industry overview | Global market by region
SE
LY
95
Methodology
How we derive the data
Historical information Historical information is obtained principally from condential and proprietary sources. In instances where third-party sources are consulted and their information is used directlyfrom such sources as government agencies, trade associations, or related entities that seek to have their data disseminated in the public domain the sources of such information are explicitly cited. In instances where the information is used indirectly, as part of the calculus for the historical data, the sources are proprietary. Forecast information Recent trends in industry performance are analyzed, and the factors underlying those trends are identied. The factors considered are economic, demographic, technological, institutional, behavioral, competitive, and other drivers that may affect each of the entertainment and media markets. Models are then developed to quantify the impact of each factor on industry spending. A forecast scenario for each causative factor is then created, and the contribution of each factor on a prospective basis is identied. How we report the data in each chapter Segment spending consists of advertising and end-user spending related directly to entertainment and media content. Each chapter introduction begins with a denition of the spending streams that are included in that segment. We do not include spending on hardware or on services that may be needed to access content. End-user spending is counted at the consumer or enduser levelnot at the wholesale leveland includes retail markups when applicable. Advertising spending is measured net of agency commissions in all territories except the United States and Russia, where gross advertising is measured to be consistent with the way advertising is generally reported. In addition to annual spending gures, we also present data that are measured at a single point in time, such as TV subscriptions, Internet subscriptions, mobile subscriptions, and newspaper unit circulation. In those instances, we show annual averages rather than year-end totals because annual averages more accurately connect the impact of those gures to annual spending. Ination Across all chapters, gures are reported in nominal terms reecting actual spending transactions and therefore include the effects of ination. Exchange rates All gures are presented in US dollars based on the average 2009 exchange rate held constant for each historical year and forecast year. This means the gures reect industry trends and are not distorted by uctuations in international exchange rates. The exchange rates used for the individual countries in each region are set forth in the following tables. Nominal GDP growth Because all gures are shown as actual spending, with the effects of ination included, nominal GDP growth has an important inuence on entertainment and media spending. The tables on the following pages show historical and projected growth rates for nominal GDP for the individual countries in each region.
These proprietary mathematical models and analytic algorithms are used in the process to provide an initial array of prospective values. Our professional expertise and institutional knowledge are then applied to review and adjust those values if required. The entire process is then examined for internal consistency and transparency vis-vis prevailing industry wisdom. Forecasts for 20102014 are also based on an analysis of the dynamics of each segment in each region and on the factors that affect those dynamics. We provide compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) that cover the 20102014 forecast period. In the calculation of CAGRs, 2009 is the beginning year, with ve growth years during the forecast period: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. The end year is 2014. The formula is: CAGR = 100*((Value in 2014/Value in 2009)^(1/5)1)
96
FO
PR
ES
SE
N LY
LY N O
Australia
Dollar Yuan (renminbi) Dollar Rupee Rupiah Yen Ringgit Dollar Rupee Peso Dollar Won Dollar Baht Dong
PR
Forint Zloty
FO
ES
S
19.09387 202.43648 3.11750 3.04930 31.82425 1.55692 3.93284 1.00000 8.45021
SE
New Zealand
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon,Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Figures are estimated in US$.
97
2005 5.0 4.1 5.4 3.2 4.0 1.4 6.3 8.8 2.7 4.5 11.7 3.5 7.8 4.2 2.8 4.3 3.9 6.0 6.4 6.4
2006 5.2 5.3 5.4 6.3 4.7 3.7 7.9 9.4 3.9 5.2 11.0 4.3 8.5 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3
2007 5.3 5.3 3.6 7.6 4.7 4.4 7.0 7.5 4.0 5.0 5.4 5.0 7.8 5.6 6.2
2008 4.3 2.1 2.8 3.7 2.9 2.8 6.4 1.0 1.6 4.9 11.5 1.8 4.2 3.1
2009p 3.3 3.1 4.5 6.5 2.1 4.6 0.1 8.1 4.4 3.3
2010 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.9 2.6 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.0
2013 4.7 3.8 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.6 4.7 4.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 3.7 5.7 2.9 5.0 4.0 6.4 6.0 7.0 7.9 10.2 9.1 9.0 6.7 10.5 11.8 10.3 5.4
2014 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 3.7 5.0 5.2 2.9 4.8 5.7 4.2 4.5 5.4 2.8 5.3 4.3 8.0 6.2 7.2 8.2 9.9 8.8 9.0 5.9 10.9 10.6 10.3 5.7
201014 CAGR 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.0 3.4 2.6 2.5 3.1 4.4 3.0 2.5 4.6 2.5 4.1 3.2 5.2 5.2 6.2 7.0 10.1 9.6 8.8 5.5 9.4 10.2 9.1 4.6
SE
3.0 1.5 0.1 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.5 3.1 4.8 4.7 9.9 9.7 8.0 4.1 8.0 8.0 7.5 3.1
U
3.6 3.7 2.7 2.1 2.6 3.4 3.4 4.4 4.4 2.2 5.9 3.8 3.5 3.5 6.3 4.8 5.7 2.8
0.4
ES
4.0
PR
6.0
3.0
5.2
3.2 5.0 4.2 7.7 12.0 33.6 11.1 19.6 6.3 18.7 14.3 16.2 6.3
7.8
9.8 6.7 10.9 27.6 29.5 23.8 21.9 5.1 10.7 14.8 10.6 7.6
FO
8.0
7.8
30.7
22.5 9.9
98
N LY
2.8 3.2 2.0 3.1 2.6 3.4 4.8 3.3 2.2 5.0 2.9 4.5 3.3 5.4 5.7 6.1 7.4 10.5 10.0 9.1 6.2 9.3 11.1 9.3 4.8 2.2 2.4 3.7 2.1 1.9 4.2 2.6 3.8 2.7 3.7 5.0 5.7 6.8 10.2 10.4 8.8 4.7 8.5 9.3 8.2 4.1
LY
2011 11.4 3.8 13.7 10.5 2.1 4.5 3.7 12.2 10.6 5.9 6.9 6.0 6.6 16.7 7.7
2012 6.8 11.8 6.8 11.8 10.2 2.2 6.5 4.3 10.9 11.1 7.1 7.1 6.3 7.0 12.1 8.0
2013 7.7 10.9 8.5 10.0 9.9 2.3 8.2 6.2 10.6 10.4 9.5 7.2 5.7 8.0 11.5 7.8
2014 7.9 10.6 7.8 10.0 10.2 2.4 9.4 6.5 9.9 9.8 10.9 6.9 5.0 8.0 10.3 7.8
201014 CAGR 6.1 11.0 6.0 12.1 10.4 2.0 6.3 4.6 11.1 9.9 7.7 6.9 5.6 7.1 13.2 7.6
3.5
4.8
U
2.3 5.0 7.2 7.2 8.0
SE
6.4 3.7 0.8 23.3 3.8 3.5 2.2 4.6 2.5 11.9 2.0
S
20.1 12.8 32.1
ES
10.3 7.3 13.8 5.7 8.3 17.4 9.7
PR
5.0
4.6
FO
9.3
17.3 6.5
O
10.2 3.0 15.1 0.8 2.9 2.6 11.8 7.4 5.4 6.3 5.2 6.0 15.7 6.6 11.2
99
Mobile markets in selected countries, CAGR 20102014 (%) . . . . . 14 NGN initiatives around the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Global advertising shares (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Global Internet advertising . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
PR
Global E&M advertising, consumer/end-user spending and nominal GDP growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Top 12 entertainment and media markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Global Internet access spending market: wired and mobile. . . . . . . 30 mobile . Global Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Global advertising by segment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 . Global advertising by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Global consumer/end-user spending by segment. . . . . . . . . . . . 33 segment Global consumer/end-user spending by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
FO
100
ES
SE
Toward 2014: the search for position in the digital value chain
N LY
Advertising by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Advertising by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Consumer/end-user spending by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Consumer/end-user spending (excluding Internet access) by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Latin America
Entertainment and media market by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Entertainment and media market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Entertainment and media spending, Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Internet access spending market: wired and mobile . . . . . . . . . . 91 Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by country . . . . 91 Advertising by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Advertising by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Consumer/end-user spending by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Consumer/end-user spending (excluding Internet access) by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Asia Pacic
Entertainment and media market by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Entertainment and media market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Entertainment and media spending, Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Entertainment and media spending, China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Entertainment and media spending, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Internet access spending market: wired and mobile . . . . . . . . . . 83 Internet access spending market: wired and mobile by country . . . . 83 Advertising by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Advertising by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 Consumer/end-user spending by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Consumer/end-user spending (excluding Internet access) by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
average) Exchange rates per US$ (2009 average). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Nominal GDP growth by country in EMEA (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
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Nominal GDP growth by country in North America (%) . . . . . . . . . 99 Nominal GDP growth by country in Asia Pacic (%) . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Nominal GDP growth by country in Latin America (%) . . . . . . . . . 99
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Index of tables and charts
Methodology
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In-depth, detailed data and analyses for 13 segments across 48 countries and regions can be found in the full 600-plus-page edition of the Global entertainment and media outlook: 20102014. To order a copy, or access data and commentary online, please visit: pwc.com/outlook
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