Home Away

Midfield Oustanding (high) 39 Passable (very high) 24 Average result

R defence Weak (very low) 13 Solid (very high) 28 2.49 1.42
C defence Passable (high) 23 Formidable (high) 35
L defence Weak (very low) 13 Solid (very high) 28 >1 goal 41.1
R attack Poor (very low) 9 Inadequade (very low)17 1 62.2
C attack Solid (low) 26 Solid (very high) 28 x 18.0
L attack Solid (low) 26 Inadequade (very high)
20 2 19.8
hatstats 227 228 >1 goal 8.3

70
Tactic Normal 1 Normal 1
60

Ability Excellent 8 Excellent 8 50

40

30
Head spec. 2 2
20

10

SP eff. % 30 30 0

1 x 2

Possesion: 62.10 37.90

Chances (1): 8.06 1.94 (raw)
Chances (2): 8.06 1.94 (w/ pressing)
Chances (3): 8.06 1.94 (actual w/ CA)
Chances (4): 8.06 1.94 (processed w/o CA)

Please read the FAQ! Chance distribution

Home Away Prob.
Chances for home team
4.00 6.00 0.01
0.35
5.00 5.00 0.02
0.3
6.00 4.00 0.08
0.25
7.00 3.00 0.19
0.2 8.00 2.00 0.3
0.15 9.00 1.00 0.28
0.1 10.00 0.00 0.12
11.00 0.00 0
0.05
12.00 -1.00 0
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13.00 -2.00 0
1
 Home Away Goals
Distribution Home Away
Wing att. 0.50 0.50 0 0.24931 0.00144
Central att. 0.40 0.40 1 0.41405 0.01704
Set pieces 0.10 0.10 2 0.25786 0.08423
total 1.00 1.00 3 0.07137 0.22202
4 0.00741 0.32919
Accuracy 5 0.00000 0.26031
Right 0.05 0.70 6 0.00000 0.08577
Center 0.33 0.66 7 0.00000 0.00000
Left 0.48 0.79 8 0.00000 0.00000
Set Pieces 0.30 0.30 9 0.00000 0.00000 0.25
total 0.293 0.664 10 0.00000 0.00000 1.51
4.00 6.00 4.74
CA 93.75
Probability: 0 0 81.57
Convertions: 0 0 Goals 0.01
Home Away
Pressing 0 0.04392 0.33592
Probability: 0 0 1 0.16412 0.66408
reduced: 0 0 2 0.27256 0.00000
3 0.26405 0.00000
SE 4 0.16444 0.00000
Headers 0.13 0.13 5 0.06827 0.00000
6 0.01890 0.00000
7 0.00336 0.00000
8 0.00035 0.00000
9 0.00002 0.00000 61.1
10 0.00000 0.00000 84.71
9.00 1.00 12.37
2.92
0
0.28
 Goals Goals
Home Away Home Away
0 0.17617 0.00428 0 0.12449 0.01273
1 0.36572 0.04228 1 0.31011 0.10069
2 0.30368 0.16717 2 0.32188 0.29858
3 0.12608 0.33047 3 0.17819 0.39351
4 0.02617 0.32665 4 0.05549 0.19448
5 0.00217 0.12915 5 0.00921 0.00000
6 0.00000 0.00000 6 0.00064 0.00000
7 0.00000 0.00000 7 0.00000 0.00000
8 0.00000 0.00000 8 0.00000 0.00000
9 0.00000 0.00000 1.39 9 0.00000 0.00000
10 0.00000 0.00000 5.88 10 0.00000 0.00000
5.00 5.00 11.75 6.00 4.00
82.37
61.02
Goals 0.02 Goals
Home Away Home Away
0 0.03104 1.00000 0 0.02193 1.00000
1 0.12886 0.00000 1 0.10016 0.00000
2 0.24075 0.00000 2 0.20792 0.00000
3 0.26655 0.00000 3 0.25898 0.00000
4 0.19367 0.00000 4 0.21505 0.00000
5 0.09649 0.00000 5 0.12500 0.00000
6 0.03338 0.00000 6 0.05190 0.00000
7 0.00792 0.00000 7 0.01539 0.00000
8 0.00123 0.00000 8 0.00319 0.00000
9 0.00011 0.00000 84.01 9 0.00044 0.00000
10 0.00000 0.00000 96.9 10 0.00004 0.00000
10.00 0.00 3.1 11.00 0.00
0
0
0.12
 Goals Goals
Home Away Home Away
0 0.08796 0.03791 0 0.06216 0.11284
1 0.25565 0.22481 1 0.20646 0.44616
2 0.31843 0.44442 2 0.30001 0.44100
3 0.22034 0.29286 3 0.24912 0.00000
4 0.09148 0.00000 4 0.12929 0.00000
5 0.02279 0.00000 5 0.04294 0.00000
6 0.00315 0.00000 6 0.00891 0.00000
7 0.00019 0.00000 7 0.00106 0.00000
8 0.00000 0.00000 8 0.00005 0.00000
5.52 9 0.00000 0.00000 16.08 9 0.00000 0.00000
16.84 10 0.00000 0.00000 36.68 10 0.00000 0.00000
20.98 7.00 3.00 26.69 8.00 2.00
62.18 36.64
35.53 13.97
0.08 Goals 0.19 Goals
Home Away Home Away
0 0.01550 1.00000 0 0.01095 1.00000
1 0.07721 0.00000 1 0.05910 0.00000
2 0.17631 0.00000 2 0.14723 0.00000
3 0.24400 0.00000 3 0.22414 0.00000
4 0.22794 0.00000 4 0.23265 0.00000
5 0.15142 0.00000 5 0.17387 0.00000
6 0.07334 0.00000 6 0.09625 0.00000
7 0.02610 0.00000 7 0.03996 0.00000
8 0.00677 0.00000 8 0.01244 0.00000
87.79 9 0.00125 0.00000 90.73 9 0.00287 0.00000
97.81 10 0.00016 0.00000 98.45 10 0.00048 0.00000
2.19 12.00 0.00 1.55 13.00 0.00
0 0
0 0
0 0
35.54
62.24
23.14
14.62
2.74
0.3

92.99
98.9
1.1
0
0
0
 FAQ
1. How do I use it?
This tool is pretty easy to use. Just insert the desired ratings and tactics in the dropdown menus and the
corresponding results will be shown. You have the option to alter the SP-effeciency and the number of
head-specialists as well. The SP-effecience is the percentage of freekicks and penalties being converted to
goals, 30% is the default value. That's all there is to it.

2. What do the different results mean?

There are basically two results. One which simple returns the average number of goals each team will score
in the match, and the other the likelyhood of either team winning the match or a draw. The >1 goal is the
probability that the team will win by more than 1 goal. Both boxes use all the data given, except the amount
of head-specialists, which are not taken into account in the 1x2 box.

3. How do I change the formulas?

By default, the worksheet is protected. To unprotect it, go to Tools -> Protection -> Unprotect sheet and type
in the password '17897'. Feel free to change the formulas whatever you want. You just have to mention the
changes if you re-distribute changed sheets. If you have reason to believe some of the formulas are way off,
please HT-mail me, my team-ID is by coincidence the same as the password ;)

4. There are other tools on the net, why this one?

I made this tool, because I felt that the other available ones lacked certain things. They were all simulators,
and not really predictors, most of them didn't really take the tactics into account, and worst of all, none of
them had an explanation of the results. All the formulas are hidden, so it is imposible to really know the
quality of the result. Some of them are clearly wrong as they among other things consider disastrous (very low)
as 1, and not as 0 as it should be. This tool has no secrets, as all the formulas are accessible, and I even try
to explain how the input is processed

5. So how does it work?

There are two different results, the average result and the 1X2 box.

Average result
The average result is basically just expected chances times accuracy. If a team should get an average of 6,62
chances and score on an average of 47% of these, the expected goals would be 3,11. To this number, the average
number of missed chances due to pressing is substracted, and the average number of converted counter-
attacks and head-SE's are added.

1X2 result
If the expected chances is 6,62 to the home team, it will calculate the probability of the home team getting
2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 or 10 chances, and the away team the rest. This result is also shown graphically. For each
of this distribution of chances, the probability of converting the chances into goals is calculated. For each of this
binormial distributions, the probability of 1x2 is calculated. The final result is a weighted average of all 10 tables.

There are a lot of steps leading to the final output, the following are brief descriptions of each:

Ball possession
The ballpossesion is given from the direct difference in midfield. Disastrous (very low)=0, disastrous (low)=1
and so on. There might be some deviations to the actual matchreports because of decimals. Furthermore,
the condition of the players are not taken into account.

Chance distribution
The distribution of chances are based upon an italian study. The exact correlation between ball possesion is
estimated as a normal distribution and shown in the 'possesion' sheet. There are 4 columns here. The first one
shows the direct distribution from the possesion. The second one substracts the effect of passing. The third
one the effect of CA, and the last one the final processed chance distribution. More on them later. The entire
sheet assumes the existence of 10 normal chances, which is generally accepted.

Distribution of attacks
The distrubion of attack are obtained from www.hattristics.com. The attacks are divided 25% to either side, 40%
in the center and 10% as freekick/penalties. AIM or AOW affects this. In the rules an amount of 20-40% are
stated, so these are the numbers which are used. The effect is considered exactly the same for AIM and AOW,
so the repositioned chances are in the range of 8-16%. The effect is linear.

Accuracy
The accuracy is the percentages of attacks that are converted to goal. The dataset is taken from LA-GetAssista
research on global, and is based on almost 1.700 chances. All chances are CA-opportunities and after 7/3-2006,
so all chances are reported, not just those with a certain chance. The correlation can be seen in the 'accuracy' sheet
The overall accuracy are shown last, which includes the SP-effenciency number. It is this number, and this
number alone which are used in the later calculations.

Counter attacks
The counterattack box has two different numbers, the probability and the conversions. The probablity shows the
likelyhood that any missed chance by the opponent will result in a counterattack, while the conversions shows
the actual amount of CA-chances appearing in the match. It is a little tricky to implement these 'extra' chances
into the engine, so it is not entirely accurate. The number of converted chances is rounded down and given to the
CA-team as completely sure chances, regardless of the chance distribution. Half of the remaining conversions is
given to to the CA-team as regurlar chances and substracted from the other team. In that way, the total amount
of normal chances will always be an intiger, which is crucial for the predictor.

If the CA-team have 0,50 normal chances in a match, and will have 2,70 conversions, that team will recieve 2
chances beyond the normal 10 in a match. Furthermore, that team will recieve 0,70/2 = 0,35 normal chances,
giving a normal chance distribution of 0,85/9,15, and an actual distribution of 2,85/9,15.

The formula used for CA is based upon a small study shown on the CA+pressing sheat. It seems pretty reliable
despite the relative small number of matches (~50). If someone have a larger study, please HT-mail me. It HAVE
to only include matches played after the CA-bug was discovered.

Pressing
As with CA, the pressing has two numbers which are calculated in the pressing-box. The probability is the
likelyhood that a chance will be lost, and the second number is the number of chances reduced in the match.
For simplicity, this number is rounded the the nearest intiger, so different tactic abilities can yield the same
number of chances overall.

The formula is based on numbers from hattristics.org in the range weak-outstanding, and from danish manager
crixl (196444) from brilliant-titanic. The formula used is the exact same formula used for CA.

Head
The formula of head-events is based on data from hattristics.org. The small difference in home-away is not taken
into account, the numbers used are the average.

6. What is the raw MP?

The 'raw MP' sheet is a small customizable tool, in which you can enter all the data by yourself. It can be usefull
if you want to examine the importance of the chance distribution precisely.
Best Regards,
Suleforever, 17897
r, the average
er 7/3-2006,
accuracy' sheet

given to the

me. It HAVE

is not taken
Disastrous (very low) 1 Disastrous 1 Normal
Disastrous (low) 2 Wretched 2 Attack in Middle
Disastrous (high) 3 Poor 3 Attack over Wings
Disastrous (very high) 4 Weak 4 Pressing
Wretched (very low) 5 Inadequade 5 Counter Attack
Wretched (low) 6 Passable 6
Wretched (high) 7 Solid 7
Wretched (very high) 8 Excellent 8
Poor (very low) 9 Formidable 9
Poor (low) 10 Outstanding 10
Poor (high) 11 Brilliant 11
Poor (very high) 12 Magnificent 12
Weak (very low) 13 World Class 13
Weak (low) 14 Supernatural 14
Weak (high) 15 Titanic 15
Weak (very high) 16 Extra-Terrestrial 16
Inadequade (very low) 17 Mythical 17
Inadequade (low) 18 Magical 18
Inadequade (high) 19 Utopian 19
Inadequade (very high) 20 Divine 20
Passable (very low) 21
Passable (low) 22
Passable (high) 23
Passable (very high) 24
Solid (very low) 25
Solid (low) 26
Solid (high) 27
Solid (very high) 28
Excellent (very low) 29
Excellent (low) 30
Excellent (high) 31
Excellent (very high) 32
Formidable (very low) 33
Formidable (low) 34
Formidable (high) 35
Formidable (very high) 36
Oustanding (very low) 37
Oustanding (low) 38
Oustanding (high) 39
Oustanding (very high) 40
Brilliant (very low) 41
Brilliant (low) 42
Brilliant (high) 43
Brilliant (very high) 44
Magnificent (very low) 45
Magnificent (low) 46
Magnificent (high) 47
Magnificent (very high) 48
World Class (very low) 49
World Class (low) 50
World Class (high) 51
World Class (very high) 52
Supernatural (very low) 53
Supernatural (low) 54
Supernatural (high) 55
Supernatural (very high) 56
Titanic (very low) 57
Titanic (low) 58
Titanic (high) 59
Titanic (very high) 60
Extra-Terrestrial (very low) 61
Extra-Terrestrial (low) 62
Extra-Terrestrial (high) 63
Extra-Terrestrial (very high) 64
Mythical (very low) 65
Mythical (low) 66
Mythical (high) 67
Mythical (very high) 68
Magical (very low) 69
Magical (low) 70
Magical (high) 71
Magical (very high) 72
Utopian (very low) 73
Utopian (low) 74
Utopian (high) 75
Utopian (very high) 76
Divine (very low) 77
Divine (low) 78
Divine (high) 79
Divine (very high) 80
 Hjemmehold Udehold

Chances: 5 5 (mellem 0 og 10)

Accuracy %:
Distribution of chances: 0.48 0.48
Wing: 0.50 0.50 \
Center: 0.40 0.40 | Result:
Set pieces: 0.10 0.10 | 2.41 2.41
Total: 1.00 1.00 |
|
Accuracy: | 1 37.68
Right: 0.50 0.50 x 24.63
Center: 0.50 0.50 (between 0 and 1) 2 37.68
Left: 0.50 0.50
|
SP eff.: 0.3 0.3 |
|
Ca prob. % 0 0 |
|
Press. prob. % 0 /

Head-spec. 0 0 (0-5) 0.01 0.01

 Goals
Home Away
0 0.03802 0.03802
Accuracy %: 1 0.17548 0.17548
2 0.32396 0.32396
3 0.29904 0.29904
4 0.13802 0.13802
5 0.02548 0.02548
6 0.00000 0.00000
7 0.00000 0.00000
8 0.00000 0.00000
9 0.00000 0.00000
10 0.00000 0.00000
Possession 10
0 0
20 0.16 9.5
25 0.37 9
30 0.77 8.5
35 1.42
40 2.38 8
45 3.6 7.5
50 5 7
55 6.4
60 7.62 6.5
65 8.58 6
70 9.23 5.5
75 9.63
80 9.84 5
90 9.98 4.5
100 10 4
3.5
3
60 2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
50 60 70 80 90 100
 data formula
0.18 0.13 0.02
0.2 0 0.03
0.21 0.2 0.03 1
0.22 0 0.04
0.23 0 0.04 0.9
0.25 0 0.05
0.27 0 0.07 0.8
0.29 0.1 0.09
0.29 0.14 0.09 0.7
0.3 0.25 0.1
0.33 0.11 0.15 0.6
0.33 0 0.15
0.33 0.09 0.15
0.5
0.36 0.31 0.2 0.4
0.38 0.24 0.22
0.38 0 0.22 0.3
0.38 0.09 0.24
0.4 0.2 0.27 0.2
0.4 0.23 0.27
0.4 0 0.27 0.1
0.41 0.4 0.3
0.42 0.19 0.31 0
0.43 0.14 0.34 0 0.2 0 0.3 0 0.4 0 0.5 0
0.43 0.57 0.34
0.44 0.4 0.38 .15 .25 .35 .45 .55
0.45 0.33 0.41
0.46 0.58 0.42
0.47 0.67 0.44
0.47 0 0.45
0.5 0.41 0.53
0.5 0.61 0.53
0.5 0.5 0.53
0.5 0.54 0.53
0.5 0.42 0.53
0.5 0.67 0.53
0.53 0.67 0.61
0.54 0.71 0.63
0.55 0.67 0.64
0.56 0.7 0.67
0.56 0.89 0.69
0.57 0.56 0.71
0.58 0.7 0.73
0.6 0.75 0.77
0.6 0.64 0.77
0.63 0.82 0.82
0.67 1 0.88
0.67 0.78 0.88
0.67 0.8 0.88
0.69 0.8 0.91
0.7 0.91 0.92
0.71 1 0.93
0.75 1 0.96
.4 0 0.5 0 0.6 0 0.7 0
.45 .55 .65 .75
Chances CA Tactic percent CA pressing formula
6 1 6 0.17 1 0.73
9 3 6 0.33 2 1.04
8 2 7 0.25 3 1.28 1.28
7 1 7 0.14 4 1.46 1.49
10 2 7 0.2 5 1.6 1.68
4 0 8 0 6 1.82 1.85
7 1 8 0.14 7 2 2.09 2.01
7 1 8 0.14 8 2.24 2.15 2.16
8 3 8 0.38 9 1.67 2.3
8 2 8 0.25 10 2.5 2.44
7 2 8 0.29 11 2.67 2.1 2.57
9 2 8 0.22 12 2.67 2.38 2.69
8 2 8 0.25 13 2.61 2.8 2.81
8 2 9 0.25 14 2.62 3 2.93
6 0 9 0 15 3.1 3.04
9 1 9 0.11 16 3.25 3.15
10 3 9 0.3 17 3.26
7 1 9 0.14 18 3.36
8 1 9 0.13 19 3.46
7 1 10 0.14 20 3.56
7 2 10 0.29
8 2 10 0.25
8 3 10 0.38
6 2 10 0.33
8 1 10 0.13
6 2 10 0.33 3.75
10 2 10 0.2 3.5
9 2 10 0.22
9 3 10 0.33 3.25
9 1 10 0.11 3
8 2 10 0.25
9 1 10 0.11
2.75
8 3 10 0.38 2.5
8 2 10 0.25
8 3 10 0.38
2.25
10 3 11 0.3 2
7 2 11 0.29
1.75
7 2 11 0.29
7 2 11 0.29 1.5
8 2 11 0.25 1.25
7 3 11 0.43
8 3 11 0.38 1
7 2 11 0.29 0.75
10 1 11 0.1
9 2 11 0.22 0.5
8 1 11 0.13 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5
7 2 11 0.29
7 2 11 0.29
9 2 11 0.22
9 3 11 0.33
8 2 12 0.25
 7 3 12 0.43
8 2 12 0.25
8 2 12 0.25
10 1 12 0.1
8 3 12 0.38
9 3 12 0.33
10 1 12 0.1
9 3 12 0.33
9 3 12 0.33
9 3 13 0.33
7 2 13 0.29
8 2 13 0.25
7 2 13 0.29
8 2 13 0.25
8 1 13 0.13
8 3 13 0.38
8 3 13 0.38
8 1 13 0.13
9 2 13 0.22
8 2 13 0.25
9 2 14 0.22
8 1 14 0.13
7 2 14 0.29
7 3 14 0.43
8 3 14 0.38
9 2 14 0.22
10 2 14 0.2
8 2 14 0.25
9 2 14 0.22
9 3 14 0.33
8 3 15 0.38
9 3 15 0.33
9 3 15 0.33
10 3 15 0.3
10 3 15 0.3
10 3 15 0.3
10 3 15 0.3
10 3 15 0.3
9 3 15 0.33
8 3 15 0.38
7 2 15 0.29
10 3 15 0.3
7 1 15 0.14
8 3 15 0.38
8 3 15 0.38
9 2 15 0.22
8 3 16 0.38
8 2 16 0.25
7 3 16 0.43
9 2 16 0.22
8 3 16 0.38
 CA
pressing
formula

10 12.5 15 17.5 20
 Away
Home 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.13 0 0.17 0 0.23 0.01
1 0.08 0.01 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.2 0.07 0.25 0.06
2 0.15 0.01 0.14 0.06 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.18 0.12 0.29 0.06
3 0.2 0 0.2 0.07 0.19 0.1 0.2 0.18 0.13 0.18 0.09
4 0.27 0 0.25 0.07 0.27 0.11 0.29 0.17 0.15 0.08 0
5 0.35 0 0.26 0.01 0.24 0.06 0.38 0.23 0.14 0 home
6 0.24 0.04 0.19 0 0.43 0.14 0 0.5 home away
7 0.33 0 0.4 0 home away 0 0
home away home away home away

0.3
0.28
0.25
0 1 2 3 4 0.23
0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0
1 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.07
0.2
2 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.18
3 0.19 0.2 0.18 0.19 0.15
4 0.25 0.25 0.28 0.23 0.15 0.15
0.13
0.1
0.08
0.05
0.03
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 0.23
0 0.08 0.14 0.2 0.25 0.2
0.18
0.15
0.13
0.1
0.08
0.05
0.03
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
0.15
0.13
0.1
0.08
0.05
0.03
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
 5 6 7
0.25 0 0.36 0 0
0.32 0 0.36 0 0.5
0.27 0 0.6 0 0
0.09 0 0 home away
1 0 0
away home away

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
 Matchpredictor for hattrick.org v. 1.21
Made by Suleforever (17897)

Latest version can be downloaded at:

http://www.esnips.com/web/matchp

Version chances

V. 1.21
- Added 'about' sheet
- Corrected pressing bug in the average result, which occured
when both teams were playing pressing.

V. 1.20
- Added more CA-matches to the study, no changes were
made to the formula
- Changed the formula for accuracy, so it fitted to the study on
global made by LA-GetAssista.

V. 1.10
- Added colors to the boxes on the main page, and changed
the layout slightly
- Added the graphical representation of 1x2 and chances for
home team
- Changed the formulas for CA and pressing slightly

V. 1.0
- Increased the number of chances being calculated from 2 to
10 and introduced the binormial distribution of the chances.
- Added dropdown menus with skill levels instead of numbers.
- Added the effect of CA and pressing to the 1x2 result
- Corrected some minor errors.

<V. 1.0
Preliminary versions only available to SFTM members.