PROJECT ON

DEMAND FORCASTING
BY
(MONIKA ASTHANA)
UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF
(MS.LORNA RAYMONDS)

MOUNT CARMEL INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT BANGLORE 052.

2011

DEMAND FORCASTING OF Lakme

PEACH MOISTURIZER (A Product of
Hindustan Unilever Ltd)

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00000000

CONTENT
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 MEANING
1.2 COMPANY PROFILE
1.3 OBJECTIVES
1.4 GROWTH RATE IN PRODUCTION

1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

2. RESEARCH DESIGN
2.1 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
2.2 DEMAND FORECAST MATHOD
2.3
SAMPLE DESIGN
3.SWOT ANALYSIS
4. ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION
5.CONCLUSION

CHAPTER 1- INTRODUCTION
I AM DOING A PROJECT ON DEMAND FORECASTING OF
LAKME PRODUCT.

WHAT IS DEMAND FORCASTING?

A demand forecast is the prediction of what will happen to your

company's existing product sales. It would be best to determine
the demand forecast using a multi-functional approach. The inputs
from sales and marketing, finance, and production should be
considered. The final demand forecast is the consensus of all
participating managers. You may also want to put up a Sales and
Operations Planning group composed of representatives from the
different departments that will be tasked to prepare the demand
forecast.
One of the crucial aspects in which managerial economics differs
from pure economic theory lies in the treatment of risk and
uncertainty. Traditional economic theory assumes a risk-free world
of certainty; but the real world business is full of all sorts of risk
and uncertainty. A manager cannot, therefore, afford to ignore risk
and uncertainty. The element of risk is associated with future
which is indefinite and uncertain. To cope with future risk and
uncertainty, the manager needs to predict the future event. The
likely future event has to be given form and content in terms of
projected course of variables, i.e. forecasting. Thus, business
forecasting is an essential ingredient of corporate planning. Such
forecasting enables the manager to minimize the element of risk
and uncertainty. Demand forecasting is a specific type of business
forecasting.

NAME OF THE CO.- LAKME PEACH MILK

MOISTURISER

COMPANY PROFILE:-

Half a century ago, as India took her steps into freedom, Lakme,
India'sfirst beauty brand was born. At a time when the beauty
industry in Indiawas at a nascent stage, Lakme tapped into what
would grow to beamongst the leading, high consumer interest
segments in the IndianIndustry - that of skincare and cosmetic
products. Armed with a potentcombination of foresight, research
and constant innovation, Lakme hasgrown to be the market leader
in the cosmetics industry. Lakme todayhas grown to have a wide
variety of products and services that cover allfacets of beauty
care, and arm the consumer with products to pamper herself from
head to toe. These include products for the lips, nails, eyes,face
and skin, and services like the Lakme Beauty Salons.
A little bit of Lakm history:
In 1995, Lakm Ltd (a Tata Group company) and HLL formed a
50:50venture Lakm Lever that would market and distribute
Lakm'sproducts. In 1998, Lakm sold its brands (and the 50 per
cent it ownedin the JV) to HLL, renamed itself Trent and entered a
different business(retail). Only, the years between 1995 and 2000
saw HLL wrestling withseveral issues with a bearing on Lakm's
future. A brand that has over 5decades talked of beauty is none

other than Lakm. Launched in 1952, itoffered a range of

cosmetics with nail polishes & lipsticks from the early80s. Lakm
also understands the importance of maintaining andaccentuating
a womens natural beauty, for this it has introduced a rangeof
skincare products from 1987. These ranges have been
constantlyinnovated to bring specialized beauty care and
complete the range for the definitive women.A brand that has over
5 decades talked of beauty is none other thanLakm. Launched in
1952, it offered a range of cosmetics with nailpolishes & lipsticks
from the early 80s. Lakm also understands theimportance of
maintaining and accentuating a womens natural beauty,for this it
has introduced a range of skincare products from 1987. these
ranges have been constantly innovated to bring specialized
beauty careand complete the range for the definitive
women.Chopra accepts that distribution has been the company's
Achilles heelfor some time: ''The supply-chain hasn't been as
robust as it should havebeen, but that has been the result of our
efforts to reposition andreintroduce the brand.'' The positioning
bit, although complex, is clear:Ponds is Lever's primary skincare
brand; Lakm, its aspirational colour cosmetics brand, which also
has a presence in skincare.The 'aspirational' qualification would
mean Lakm would compete atwhat the company terms the
'upper-mass' (premium) end of the colour cosmetics spectrum
(products priced between Rs 85 and Rs 250) where aslew of

competitors, ranging from Revlon (through Modi Revlon)

toChambor, are already slugging it out. Says Meghna Modi, 26,
ExecutiveDirector, Modi Revlon: ''The numbers say it all. According
to ORG-MARG's retail audit, we have an 84 per cent share of the
premium endof the colour cosmetics market.'' Chopra is quick to
rubbish this claim;he says ORG-MARG does not have a
representative sample of the60,000 outlets through which colour
cosmetics are sold in India.Still, it is conceivable that Lakm's
new-found aspirational strategycould have been brought about by
competitors like Revlon andMaybelline, which targeted this
segment. Indeed, the company's non-transfer lip-colour range
follows in the wake of Maybelline's launch of asimilar range, and
its new nail-enamel colours come soon after Maybelline and
Revlon launched their nail-enamel range. Thecompany's defense is
that it takes at least 15 months from theconceptualization to the
actual launch of products.And fashion consultants like Meher
Castelino believe the brandcommands an edge at the high-end:
''By appropriating the fashionplatform for itself, Lakm has
entrenched itself at the glamour-end.''

OBJECTIVES
Objectives of demand forecasting
Demand estimation is predicting future demand form a product.
The information regarding future demand is essential for planning
and scheduling production, purchase of raw materials, acquision of
finance and advertising.
The various techniques of demand estimation: Survey Method
Statistical Method
Survey Method
Survey method is generally used where the purpose is to make
short run forecast of demand. Under this method, customer
surveys are conducted to collect information about their intentions
and future purchase plan. This method includes
1. Consumer survey method
2. Opinion Poll method

Objective OF THE COMPANY

1 Help in building a positive association with people thereby enhancing brand
personality
2 How to break the negative connotation of Being fashionable
3 Why has Lakme missed out on promotional gauge despite roping in top brand
ambassadors.
4 How can the brand retain its lost spot?
Formulated with natural peach extracts, Lakme Peach Milk
Moisturiser leaves your skin radiantly soft. Natural peach extract
contains Vitamins and Pectin which tone and hydrate skin, giving it
a natural glow.AHA's and Antioxidants (Vitamin C and E) work to
condition and rejuvenate your skin.

COMPETITION IN THE MARKET

Competition
The Indian cosmetic market, which has been traditionally a stronghold of a few
major Indian players like Lakme, and Ponds has seen a lot of foreign entrants to the
market within the last decade. India is a very price sensitive market and the
cosmetics and personal care product companies, especially the new entrants have
had to work out new innovative strategies to suit Indian preferences and budgets to
establish a hold on the market and establish a niche market for themselves.

Given the price-sensitivity of the Indian consumer who do not normally prefer to
fork out a large sum at one time, many cosmetic and toiletries companies launched
their products in smaller pack sizes to make them more affordable. HLL and Revlon
were the first to introduce small pack sizes. Revlon introduced its small-range of 8
ml nail polishes and lipsticks, and was soon followed it its strategy by major Indian
companies as well.
Stiff competition in the cosmetics and toiletries market also saw an increase in the
range of new products being introduced for newer application concepts in the last
few years. In the skin-care segment, from just creams and moisturizers, there has
been a upgrade to value-added products such as under-eye wrinkle removing
creams, dark circle removing creams toners, sunscreen lotions, fairness creams, and
many more.
.
Beauty counselors or advisors at retails outlets have been very successful in gaining
attention, creating product awareness and overcoming consumers lack of
familiarity with, and fears about many cosmetics and personal care products such as
home hair permanents and color cosmetics. Some companies such as Lakme have
even set up exclusive Lakme beauty parlors at major cities in India through the
franchisee route .
L'Oreal markets its range of specialized hair care products exclusively through
salons and beauty parlors. L'Oreal currently is the only company in the market
that has a hair color range tailored exclusively for parlors..
A strong brand promotional campaign, good distribution network, constant
product innovation and quality improvement, and the ability to provide a
variety of quality products are some of the major reasons for the success of
most companies.
HLL, is currently India's largest cosmetics and personal care products producer and
its brands has the dominant share (more than 50 percent) in segments such as
personal wash, skin care, shampoos, lipsticks and nail polish.

TREND OR CHANGE IN PRODUCTION

OF 5 YEARS IN LAKME-

1999 - Name changed to Trent Ltd. with effect from 28-06-1999.

2000 - Lakme has introduced a new range of Lakme Pure
Radiance
Blusher.
2007-Trent Ltd has entered into an Agreement with The Xander
Group Inc.,a global private equity firm.-The company has issued
rights in the ratio of 1:5 at a premium of Rs.490/-Per Share.
2009 - Trent Ltd has appointed Mr. Mehernosh M. Surti as
Company Secretary and Compliance Officer of Trent Limited w.e.f.
April 01, 2009 in place of Mrs. H. R. Wadia.
2010 - Trent Ltd has appointed Mr. Zubin S. Dubash as an
Additional Director of the Company with effect from April 26, 2010.
- Trent Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors vide Circular
Resolution dated August 18, 2010, has appointed Mr. Noel N. Tata
as an Additional Director of the Company w.e.f. August 19, 2010.
Mr.Tata would be the Company's non-executive Vice Chairman.Trent Ltd has appointed Mr. Bhaskar Bhat as an Additional Director
of the Company.

CHAPTER 2- RESEARCH DESIGN

Our research is based on the Exploratory Study.

Research is exploratory when you use no earlier model as a basis of your study. The
most usual reason for using this approach is that you have no other choice.
Normally you would like to take an earlier theory as a support, but there perhaps is
none, or all available models come from wrong contexts.
Exploratory research means that hardly anything is known about the matter at the
outset of the project. You then have to begin with a rather vague impression of what
you should study, and it is also impossible to make a detailed work plan in advance.
The gradual process of accumulating intelligence about the object of study means
also that it will be impossible to start by defining the concepts of study. You
have to start with a preliminary notion of your object of study, and of its context.
During the exploratory research project, these provisional concepts then gradually
gain precision.

RESEARCH METHODOLGY

The research is based on:Secondary Data

Internet
Company Reports& Broachers
Magazines
Newspapers Articles &journals
what aspire them to go for the (lakme)brand. Also the level of :

Brand awareness,
Price level,
Visibility of brand personality.
Expectancy of Communication

All these factors were the prime criterion for selecting (Which brand??), Short
listing and ranking (level of trustworthiness? or most favoured ) which had helped
us for identifying the winner in cosmetics industry.

DEMAND FORECAST

METHOD OF DEMAND FORECASTING

The following are commonly available methods of demand
forecasting:
1. Survey of Buyers' Intentions,
2. Collective opinion Method,
3. Expert opinion method,

4. Controlled Experiments,
5. Statistical Methods:

A. trend Projected Method,

B. Graphical Method,
C. Least Square Method,
D. Regression Analysis.

CRITERIA FOR DEMAND

FORCASTING
Apart from being technically efficient and economically ideal a
good method of demand forecasting should satisfy a few broad
economic criteria. They are as follows:
1.

Accuracy:

Accuracy is the most important criterion of a

demand forecast, even though cent percent accuracy about the
future demand cannot be assured. It is generally measured
in terms
of the past forecasts on the present sales and by the number of
times it is correct.

2. Plausibility:
The techniques used and the assumptions made
should be intelligible to the management. It is essential for
a correct interpretation of the results.

3. Simplicity:

It should be simple, reasonable and consistent with

the existing knowledge. A simple
method is always more comprehensive than the complicated one

4. Durability:
Durability of demand forecast depends on the
relationships of the variables considered and the
stability underlying such relationships, as for instance, the
relation between price and demand, between advertisement and
sales, between the level of income and the
volume of sales, and so on.

5. Flexibility:
There should be scope for adjustments to meet the
changing conditions. This imparts durability to the technique.

6. Availability of data:
Immediate availability of required data is of
vital importance to business. It should be made available on an
uptodate basis. There should be scope for making changes in
the demand relationships as they occur.

7. Economy:
It should involve lesser costs as far
as possible. Its costs must be compared against
the benefits of forecasts .

8.Quickness:
It should be capable of yielding quick and useful results. This helps
the management to take quick and effective decisions.
Thus, an ideal forecasting method should be accurate, plausible,
durable, flexible, make the data

available readily, economical and quick in yielding results.

CHAPTER-3 :SWOT ANALYSIS Of LAKME

Strengths :
local brand of specific relevance to India.
Strong R&D capability, well linked with business.
Integrated supply chain and well spread manufacturing units.
Ability to deliver Cost Savings.
Access to Unilever global technology capability and sharing of
practices from other Unilever

best

Weaknesses :
Price positioning in some categories allows for low price competition.
Varying quality range in its products.
Falling Quality of Lame salons

Opportunities :
Brand growth through increased consumption depth and frequency of usage
across all categories.
Upgrading consumers through innovation to new levels of quality and
performance.

 Building brand image by collaborating with top designers in Lakme Fashion

week
Threats :
Aggressive price competition from local and multinational players.
Spurious/counterfeit products in rural areas and small towns.
Non Existence of brand image in long Run

CHAPTER-4:

FINDING & ANALYSIS

Overall Satisfaction

Satisfaction
level
Excellent
Good

Observed(O) Expected(E) (Oi-Ei)2

2
{(Oi-Ei)2 / }

16

20

16

0.8

20

20

Average

55

20

1225

61.25

Poor

20

225

11.25

Neutral/Cant 4
Say

20

256

12.8

2=86.1
Table value=9.49
Since the table value is less than the 2.
So the Ho is rejected.

Loyalty
Satisfaction level

Observed(O) Expected(E) (Oi-Ei)2

Loyal
Not a loyal

18
82

50
50

2 {(OiEi)2 /E }
20.48
20.48

1024
1024

2=40.96
Table value=3.84
Since the table value is less than the 2.
So the Ho is rejected.

Advocasy
Satisfaction
level

Observed(O)

Expected(E)

(Oi-Ei)2

Recommend
Will Not
recommend

40
60

50
50

100
100

2
2

2=4
Table value=3.84
Since the table value is less than the 2.
So the Ho is rejected.

{(OiEi)2 /E }

Advertising/Communication effect
Communication Observed(O)
level

Expected(E)

Effected
Not at all

50
50

17
83

(Oi-Ei)2

2 {(Oi-

Ei)2 /E }
1089
1089

21.78
21.78

2=43.56
Table value=3.84
Since the table value is less than the 2.
So the Ho is rejected.

Price Level
Satisfaction
level

Observed(O) Expected(E) (Oi-Ei)2

High

30

33.33

11.0889

2
{(Oi-Ei)2
/E }
0.333

Low

33.33

802.5889

24.08

Optimum

65

33.33

1002.9889

30.09

2=54.503
Table value=5.99
Since the table value is less than the 2.
So the Ho is rejected.

RECOMMENDATIONS
Promotions beyond fashion week
The brand should not lose its focus away from cosmetics. It can proved to very
detrimental.
For vast reach unlikely, in the short-term. Some sort of an alliance or cobranding with the salons that already exist may, perhaps, have been a better

strategy.
The general perception is that company-owned salons are expensive. Though
Lakme beauty salons are reasonably priced, it has not been communicated well
enough.

CHAPTER 5 -CONCLUSION
Since the Null hypothesis is rejected therefore it states that the customers are
not satisfied well with the lakme products . This would be the major cause of
lose of market share in the country. Another reason is the upcoming of
Regional brands in the country that is making lakme loose its sheen.
Therefore the company should take in strategic steps and planning to revive

its brand image accordingly.

The local cosmetics and toiletries market is valued at approximately RM3
billion or about US$800 million, with a growth rate of 13% annually. It is
estimated that there are more than 60,000 types of cosmetic products in the
local market. Imported products from Thailand, the United States, France,
Singapore and Japan dominate the market.
The local cosmetics and toiletries industry generally involves mixing and
formulation processes, using imported ingredients. Many of these
companies are contract manufacturers, mainly for products such as shampoo
and conditioners, other hair care products, perfumes, and cosmetics.
Advertising and promotion is crucial for cosmetics and toiletries
products, in order to create an awareness of new products and build
brand loyalty among consumers. Advertisements in TV and the print
media such as newspaper and magazines, especially womens magazines,
are very common. Samples of toiletries products are distributed to
individual households and products in sachet form are attached to
magazines. Free gifts are given during promotion periods and are advertised
in the local major newspapers and on the web.
According to the industry, the market is saturated with many different types
of products, and in the long run, established brands that emphasize quality
and service will have the edge.

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