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IndependentStatistics&Analysis

U.S. Energy Information


Administration

October2011

ShortTermEnergyandWinterFuelsOutlook
October12,2011Release

Highlights

EIAprojectsaveragehouseholdheatingexpendituresfornaturalgas,propane,
andheatingoilwillincreaseby3percent,7percent,and8percent,
respectively,thiswinter(October1toMarch31)comparedwithlastwinter,
whileelectricityheatingexpendituresfallbylessthan1percent.Average
expendituresforhouseholdsthatheatwithoilareforecasttobehigherthanin
anypreviouswinter.

Thisforecastreflectshigherpricesfornaturalgas,propane,andheatingoil,
andslightlymilderweatherthanlastwinterinmuchoftheNationcontributing
tolowerconsumptioninmanyareas(seeEIAShortTermEnergyandWinter
FuelsOutlookslideshow).

AccordingtotheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrations(NOAA)
mostrecentprojectionofheatingdegreedays,thelower48Statesareforecast
tobe2percentwarmerduringtheOctoberthroughMarchwinterheating
seasoncomparedwithlastwinter.However,heatingdegreedayprojections
varywidelyamongregions,withtheWestprojectedtobeabout3percent
colderthanlastwinter,andtheSouthprojectedtobeabout5percentwarmer.

ForecastU.S.realgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growsby1.5percentthisyear
andby1.8percentnextyear,slightlylowerthaninlastmonthsOutlook.World
oilconsumptionweightedrealGDPgrowsby3.0percentand3.5percentin
2011and2012,respectively,comparedwith3.1percentand3.8percentinthe
lastOutlook.EIAexpectstheU.S.averagerefineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilto
average$99perbarrelin2011and$98perbarrelin2012,comparedwith$100
perbarreland$103perbarrel,respectively,inthepreviousOutlook.

NaturalgasworkinginventoriesendedSeptember2011at3.4trillioncubicfeet
(Tcf),about2.6percent,or91billioncubicfeet(Bcf),belowthe2010endof
Septemberlevel.EIAexpectsthatworkingnaturalgasinventorieswill
approachlastyearshighlevelsbytheendtheinjectionseason.Theprojected
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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HenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaverages$4.15permillionBritishthermal
units(MMBtu)in2011,$0.24perMMBtulowerthanthe2010average.EIA
expectstherateofgrowthindomesticnaturalgasproductiontoslowin2012,
withtheHenryHubspotpriceaveraging$4.32perMMBtu.

ProjectedWinterFuelExpendituresbyFuelandRegion
TheaveragehouseholdwinterheatingfuelexpendituresdiscussedinthisOutlook
provideabroadguidetochangescomparedwithlastwinter,butfuelexpenditures
forindividualhouseholdsarehighlydependentonlocalweatherconditions,market
size,thesizeandenergyefficiencyofindividualhomesandtheirheatingequipment,
andthermostatsettings(seeWinterFuelsOutlooktable).
NaturalGas.EIAexpectshouseholdsheatingwithnaturalgastospendanaverageof
$19(3percent)morethiswinterthanlastwinter.AboutonehalfofU.S.households
utilizenaturalgasastheirprimaryheatingfuel.Theincreaseinnaturalgas
expendituresrepresentsa4percentincreaseinpricesanda1percentdecreasein
consumption.IntheMidwest,where71percentofhouseholdsusenaturalgasasthe
primaryheatingfuel,averagehouseholdexpendituresareexpectedtobeunchanged
fromlastwinter.Theprojectedchangesinresidentialnaturalgaspricesthiswinter
rangefroma2percentdeclineintheWesttoa10percentincreaseintheSouth.Price
changesvaryacrossregionsbecauseofanumberoffactorssuchasregionalchanges
inproductionandpipelinesupplycapacityanddifferencesinregulatoryconstraints
inpassingpricechangesthroughtocustomers.

HeatingOil.EIAexpectshouseholdsheatingprimarilywithheatingoiltospendan
averageofabout$193(8percent)morethiswinterthanlastwinterasaresultofa10
percentincreaseinpricesanda1percentdecreaseinconsumption.About6percent
ofU.S.householdsdependonheatingoilforwinterfuel;however,theNortheast
accountsforabout80percentofthesehouseholds.EIAprojectsresidentialheatingoil
pricestoaverage$3.71pergallonduringthewinterseason,33centspergallonmore
thanlastwinter,andthehighestaveragewinterpriceonrecord(althoughlowerthan
therecordheatingoilpricesrealizedduringthesummerof2008whencrudeoiland
allpetroleumproductpriceshittheirpeak).

Propane.About5percentoftotalU.S.householdsheatwithpropane.EIAexpects
householdsheatingprimarilywithpropanetospendmorethiswinter,butthat
increasevariesacrossregions.EIAexpectsthathouseholdsintheMidwestwillseean
averageincreaseinwinterpropaneexpendituresof4percent,asprojectedresidential
propanepricesincreaseby5percentfromlastwinterandconsumptionfallsbyabout

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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1percent.HouseholdsintheNortheastmayseealargerincreaseinpropaneprices
withexpendituresrisingby9percent.

Electricity.Householdsheatingprimarilywithelectricitycanexpecttospendan
averageof$6(1percent)lessthiswinter.Projectedhouseholdelectricityexpenditures
arelowerthiswinterbecausethedeclineinconsumptionmorethanoffsetsa1
percentincreaseinprices.About37percentofallU.S.householdsrelyonelectricity
astheirprimaryheatingfuel,rangingfrom14percentintheNortheastto62percent
intheSouth.Thenumberofhouseholdsheatingwithelectricityisexpectedto
increaseby1.7percentfromlastwinter.About80percentoftheincreaseoccursinthe
South,whereelectricheatpumpsarepopular.

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels
CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.Theexpectedpaceofglobaloilconsumption
growthfor2011isslightlylowerinthismonthsOutlook,whileprojectedtotalsupply
in2011ishigher,resultinginsomeeasingofoilmarkettightness.Despitethiseasing,
EIAcontinuestoexpectmarketstorelyoninventoriestomeetsomeconsumption
growthin2011and2012.Oilconsumptiongrowthfromcountriesoutsideofthe
OrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)isprojectedto
outpacethegrowthinsupplyfromproducersthatarenotmembersofthe
OrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC),implyinganeedfor
OPECproducerstoincreasetheiroutputtobalancethemarketin2011and2012.
Oilpricescontinuetofaceupwardpricepressureduetosupplyuncertaintyand
downwardpricepressurebecauseofloweringexpectationsofeconomicgrowth.
Upsideuncertaintytothecrudeoilpriceoutlookremainsasaresultofongoingunrest
inoilproducingregions.HeightenedturmoilinSyria,whichproducedanaverage
400thousandbbl/din2010,andthepotentialformoresanctionsonthecountrys
energysectorisonesourceofrisktononOPECsupply.Atthesametime,downside
demandriskspredominate,asfearspersistabouttherateofglobaleconomic
recovery,contagioneffectsofthedebtcrisisintheEuropeanUnion,andotherfiscal
issuesfacingnationalgovernments.Onthesupplyside,theremaybedownward
pricepressureifLibyaisabletorampupoilproductionandexportssoonerthan
anticipated.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.EIAexpectsthatworldcrudeoil
andliquidfuelsconsumptionwillcontinuegrowingfromitsrecordhighlevelof87.1
millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)in2010andreach88.4millionbbl/don2011and89.8
millionbbl/din2012(WorldLiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).Consumptionin

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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OECDcountriesisprojectedtodeclineinboth2011and2012,whileChinaandother
emergingeconomiesaccountforallprojectedoilconsumptiongrowththrough2012.
NonOPECSupply.EIAprojectsthatnonOPECliquidfuelsproductionwillgrowby
0.49millionbbl/din2011and0.85millionbbl/dtoanaverageof53.1millionbbl/din
2012(NonOPECCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsProductionGrowthChart).Thelargest
sourcesofexpectedgrowthinnonOPECoilproductionovertheforecastperiodare
Brazil,Canada,China,Colombia,Kazakhstan,andtheUnitedStates,withaverage
annualgrowthineachcountryofover100thousandbbl/d.Incontrast,Russian,
Mexican,andNorthSeaproductionwillbelowerbytheendoftheforecastperiod.
OPECSupply.EIAexpectsOPECcrudeoilproductiontodeclineby30thousand
bbl/din2011.ThisisinsharpcontrasttothelastOutlook,inwhichEIAexpectedtotal
OPECcrudeoilproductiontodeclineby360thousandbbl/d.Thesignificantchange
inthisOutlookfor2011islargelyduetoincreasedproductioninSaudiArabia,which
roseto9.9millionbbl/dinthethirdquarterofthisyear,comparedwith9.1million
bbl/dinthesecondquarter.EIAmaintainsitsassumptionthataboutonehalfof
Libyaspredisruptionproductionwillresumebytheendof2012,contributingtothe
overallgrowthinOPECcrudeoiloutputof270thousandbbl/din2012.EIAexpects
thatOPECsurpluscrudeoilproductioncapacityfellfrom4.0millionbbl/dinthe
fourthquarterof2010to2.8millionbbl/dinthefourthquarterof2011,butwill
increaseto3.5millionbbl/dbytheendof2012asLibyanproductioncapacitycomes
backonline(OPECSurplusCrudeOilProductionCapacityChart).ForecastOPEC
noncrudeliquidsproduction,whichisnotsubjecttoproductiontargets,isexpected
toincreaseby450thousandbbl/dinboth2011and2012.
OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAexpectsthatOECDcommercialinventorieswill
declineinboth2011and2012.Daysofsupply(totalinventoriesdividedbyaverage
dailyconsumption)fallslightlybutremainrelativelyhighat58daysduringthe
fourthquarterof2010,57daysduringthefourthquarter2011,and56daysduringthe
fourthquarter2012(DaysofSupplyofOECDCommercialStocksChart).
CrudeOilPrices.WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilspotpricesfellfroman
averageof$97perbarrelinJulyto$86perbarrelinAugustandSeptember(West
TexasIntermediateCrudeOilPriceChart).TheWTIspotpricebeganOctoberbelow
$80perbarrel.EIArevisedtheprojectedoilpricepathsdownwardfromlastmonths
Outlook.EIAexpectsthattheU.S.refineraveragecrudeoilacquisitioncostwill
averageabout$99perbarrelin2011and$98perbarrelin2012comparedwith$100
perbarreland$103perbarrelfor2011and2012,respectively,inlastmonthsOutlook.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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ThesignificantpricediscountforWTIrelativetootherU.S.andworldcrudeoilsis
expectedtocontinueuntiltransportationbottlenecksrestrictingthemovementof
crudeoiloutofthemidcontinentregionarerelieved.Consequently,theprojected
averageU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoil,whichaveragedalmost$2.70per
barrelbelowWTIin2010,averagesabout$7perbarrelaboveWTIin2011and$10per
barrelaboveWTIin2012.

Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).
WTIfuturesforDecember2011deliveryoverthe5dayperiodendingOctober6
averaged$79perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged51percent,establishingthe
lowerandupperlimitsofa95percentconfidenceintervalforthemarkets
expectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinDecemberof$57perbarreland$110
perbarrel,respectively.Lastyearatthistime,WTIforDecember2010delivery
averaged$83perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged30percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$68
perbarreland$101perbarrel.

U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels
U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption.Totalconsumptionofliquidfuelsin2010grewby
about410thousandbbl/d,or2.2percent,thehighestrateofgrowthsince2004(U.S.
LiquidFuelsConsumptionGrowthChart).Incontrast,projectedtotalU.S.liquid
fuelsconsumptionin2011fallsby230thousandbbl/d(1.2percent),revised
downwardfromthepreviousOutlooks170thousandbbl/d(0.9percent)declineasthe
2011U.S.realGDPgrowthforecasthasbeenloweredfortheseventhconsecutive
month.Motorgasolineconsumptionaccountsformuchoftheprojecteddeclinefor
theyear.
EIAexpectstotalliquidfuelsconsumptiontoincreaseby90thousandbbl/d(0.5
percent)to19.1millionbbl/din2012.Projectedmotorgasolineconsumptionrisesby
40thousandbbl/d(0.5percent)ashighwaytravelincreasesmodestly,anddistillate
fuelconsumptionincreasesby30thousandbbl/d(0.7percent)asgrowthinindustrial
activityandnonpetroleumimportscontinuestoslowasaresultofcontinuingweak
economicgrowth.
U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports.Domesticcrudeoilproduction,which
increasedby110thousandbbl/din2010to5.5millionbbl/d,increasesbyafurther180
thousandbbl/din2011andby70thousandbbl/din2012(U.S.CrudeOilProduction
Chart),drivenbyincreasedoildirecteddrillingactivity,particularlyin
unconventionalshaleformations.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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TherapidgrowthinU.S.ethanolproductionsincethemid2000sisprojectedtoslow
withtotalproductionaveraging900thousandbbl/din2011and910thousandbbl/din
2012.Assumingethanolnetexportsaverageroughly40thousandbbl/dnextyear,
EIAexpectsthat870thousandbbl/dofethanolwillbeblendedintogasolinein2012,
whichissufficienttomeettherequirementsoftherenewablefuelsstandard(RFS).
TheexpirationoftheFederalmotorfuelsexcisetaxcreditforethanolblendingis
expectedtohavelittleeffectonethanolblendinglevels,asethanolproducersdonot
currentlyappeartobecapturingmuchofthevalueofthecredit.
Liquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoilandrefinedproducts)fellfrom57
percentoftotalU.S.consumptionin2008to49percentin2010becauseofrising
domesticproductionandthedeclineinconsumptionduringtheeconomicdownturn.
EIAforecaststhatliquidfuelnetimportsshareoftotalconsumptionwilldecline
furtherto46percentin2011beforerisingslightlyto47percentin2012.
U.S.CrudeOilandPetroleumProductInventories.Commercialcrudeoilinventory
levelsendedSeptember2011atanestimated336millionbarrels,26millionbarrels
belowlastyearbut7millionbarrelshigherthantheprevious5yearaverageforthat
month.Commercialcrudeoilstocksaregraduallydrawndownto317millionbarrels
bytheendof2012,closetotheir5yearaverage.
TotalmotorgasolinestocksattheendofSeptember2011wereanestimated214
millionbarrels,down5millionbarrelsfromlastyearbut6millionbarrelsabovethe
previous5yearaverageforthatmonth.DistillatefueloilstocksendedSeptember
2011atanestimated157millionbarrels,down10millionbarrelsfromthesametime
lastyearbut7millionbarrelsabovetheprevious5yearaverage.Projectedtotal
motorgasolineanddistillateinventoriesaverageabout3millionbarrelsand8million
barrelshigher,respectively,thantheirprevious5yearaveragesattheendof2012.
TheNortheastHomeHeatingOilReserve,whichwasemptiedearlierthisyear
becauseofthemovetolowsulfurheatingoilinseveralnortheastStatesnextyear,is
expectedtoberestockedwith650,000barrelsthismonthand350,000barrelsnext
month.
U.S.PetroleumProductPrices.EIAforecaststhattheannualaverageregulargrade
gasolineretailprice,whichaveraged$2.78pergallonin2010,willincreasetoan
averageof$3.52pergallonin2011,andaverage$3.43pergallonin2012.Theincrease
inretailpricesin2011reflectsnotonlythehighercostofcrudeoilbutalsochangesin
theaverageU.S.refinerygasolinemargin(thedifferencebetweenrefinerywholesale
gasolinepricesandtheaveragecostofcrudeoil).TheaverageU.S.refinerygasoline
marginincreasesfrom$0.34pergallonin2010,to$0.51pergallonin2011,then
declinesto$0.43pergallonin2012.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$2.99pergallon
in2010,willaverage$3.80pergallonin2011,and$3.73pergallonin2012.Projected
U.S.refinerydieselfuelmarginsincreasefromanaverageof$0.39pergallonin2010
to$0.64pergallonin2011,thenfalltoanaverageof$0.56pergallonin2012.

NaturalGas

U.S.NaturalGasConsumption.Projectednaturalgasconsumptionincreasesbyan
average1.2billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2011and0.5Bcf/din2012,withgrowth
intheelectricpowerandindustrialsectorsdrivingtheincreases.Projectednatural
gasconsumptionforelectricitygenerationincreasesby0.36Bcf/dand0.37Bcf/din
2011and2012,respectively.EIAexpectsconsumptionintheindustrialsectortorise
from18.1Bcf/dto18.5Bcf/din2011and18.6Bcf/din2012,astheprojectednatural
gasweightedindustrialproductionindexalsocontinuestorisebutataslowingrate.

Naturalgasconsumptionforthethirdquarterof2011averagedanestimated57.9
Bcf/d,withconsumptionintheelectricpowersectormakingupalmosthalfofthe
total.Therewereanestimated942coolingdegreedaysforthethirdquarter2011,
about22percentmorethanthe30yearnormal,andabovethe930coolingdegree
daysfortherecordbreakingheatofthethirdquarterof2010.
U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports.EIAexpectsmarketednaturalgas
productiontoaverage66.0Bcf/din2011,a4.2Bcf/d(6.7percent)increaseover2010.
Theentiretyofthisgrowthiscomingfromincreasesinonshoreproductioninthe
lower48States,whichwillmorethanoffsetasteepyearoveryeardeclineofover0.9
Bcf/d(15percent)intheFederalGulfofMexico(GOM)andasmalldeclineinAlaska.
EIAexpectsthatoverallproductionwillcontinuetogrowin2012,butataslower
pace,increasing1.4Bcf/d(2.1percent)toanaverageof67.4Bcf/d.
Drillingactivityhasbeenresilientdespitelowernaturalgasspotandfuturesprices.
AccordingtoBakerHughes,theSeptember30rigcountwas923activedrillingrigs
targetingnaturalgas,upfromthisyearslowof866onMay20.Ifdrillingcontinues
toincrease,productioncouldgrowmorethanexpectedin2012.
Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionhasreducedrelianceonnaturalgasimports
andcontributedtoincreasedexports.EIAexpectsthatpipelinegrossimportsof
naturalgaswillfallby4.8percentto8.6Bcf/dduring2011andbyanother3.1percent
to8.4Bcf/din2012.ProjectedU.S.importsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)fallfrom1.2
Bcf/din2010to0.9Bcf/din2011andto0.7Bcf/din2012.Pipelinegrossexportsto
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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MexicoandCanadaareexpectedtoaverage4.1Bcf/din2011and4.2Bcf/din2012,
comparedwith3.1Bcf/din2010.
U.S.NaturalGasInventories.OnSeptember30,2011,workingnaturalgasinstorage
stoodat3,409Bcf,91Bcfbelowthe2010endofSeptemberlevel(U.S.Working
NaturalGasinStorageChart).EIAexpectsthatinventories,thoughcurrentlylower
thanlastyear,willcomeclosetolastyearslevelstowardstheendofthe2011injection
season,reaching3.77TcfattheendofOctober2011.
U.S.NaturalGasPrices.TheHenryHubspotpriceaveraged$3.90perMMBtuin
September2011,15centslowerthantheAugust2011average(HenryHubNatural
GasPriceChart).EIAexpectsthatHenryHubspotpriceswillfallfurtherinOctober,
beforerisingabove$4perMMBtuinDecember.ThismonthsOutlooklowersthe2011
forecastby5centsto$4.15perMMBtu,24centslessthanthe2010average.Although
theaverage2011spotnaturalgaspriceislowerthanthe2010average,theforecast
priceoverthewinter201112ishigherthanlastwintersaverage.LastyeartheHenry
Hubspotpricehitalowof$3.43permillionBtuinOctober2010.EIAexpectsthis
wintersheatingseasonwillstartoutwithanaverageHenryHubspotpriceof$3.78
permillionBtuinOctober2011.EIAexpectstheHenryHubpricein2012toaverage
$4.32perMMBtu.
NaturalgasfuturespricesforDecember2011delivery(forthe5dayperiodending
October6,2011)averaged$3.93perMMBtu,andtheaverageimpliedvolatilitywas34
percent(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).Thelowerandupperboundsforthe
95percentconfidenceintervalforDecember2011contractsare$3.13perMMBtuand
$4.93perMMBtu.Atthistimelastyear,theDecember2010naturalgasfutures
contractaveraged$4.07perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged39percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$3.09
perMMBtuand$5.37perMMBtu.
Coal

U.S.CoalConsumption.EIAexpectsthatcoalconsumptionforelectricitygeneration
willdeclineby19millionshorttons(MMst)(1.9percent)in2011,asthegrowthin
totalelectricitygenerationof0.6percentissatisfiedbyincreasesingenerationfrom
naturalgas(1.2percent)andhydropower(23percent).Projectedincreasesin
generationfromnaturalgasandnuclear,combinedwithlowerelectricity
consumption,contributetoanadditional3.9percentdeclineinelectricpowersector
coalconsumptionin2012.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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U.S.CoalSupply.EIAforecaststhatcoalproductionwillfallby1.5percentin2011
despiteasignificantincreaseincoalexports.CoalproductionintheWesternregionis
projectedtodecline,whileproductionintheAppalachianandInteriorregions
increasesslightly.EIAexpectscoalproductiontodeclinebynearly24MMst(2.2
percent)in2012asdomesticconsumptionandexportsfall(U.S.AnnualCoal
ProductionChart)andinventoriesatelectricpowerplantsdecline
(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoalStocksChart).

U.S.CoalTrade.U.S.coalexportsrosebyabout35percentduringthefirsthalfof
2011comparedwith2010.Exportsof54MMstduringthefirsthalfof2011werethe
highestsince1982.EIAexpectsU.S.coalexportstoremainelevatedoverthesecond
halfof2011,reachinganannualtotalof99MMst.ForecastU.S.coalexportsfallback
toabout86MMstin2012assupplyfromothermajorcoalexportingcountries
recoversfromdisruptions.ThestrongglobaldemandforcoaloutsidetheUnited
Statesalsocontributedtoa15percentdeclineinU.S.coalimportsin2010(to19.4
MMst)despiteanincreaseindomesticconsumption.EIAexpectsthelowerlevelof
U.S.coalimportstocontinue,withimportsbelow20MMstin2011and2012.U.S.
coalimportsaveragedabout31MMstannuallyfrom2004through2009.

U.S.CoalPrices.Averagedeliveredcoalpricestotheelectricpowersectorhaverisen
steadilyoverthelast10years,withanaverageannualincreaseof6.7percent.EIA
expectsthatthistrendwillcontinuein2011,withasignificantportionoftheincrease
attributedtoasharpriseintransportationcosts.Expecteddeclinesinconsumption
andstabletransportationcostscontributetoaflatteningoftheelectricpowersector
coalpricein2012.Theprojectedaveragedeliveredcoalpricetotheelectricpower
sector,whichaveraged$2.26perMMBtuin2010,is$2.39perMMBtuforboth2011
and2012.

Electricity

U.S.ElectricityConsumption.Lastwinter,heatingdegreedaysduringthefourth
quarterof2010intheSouthAtlanticCensusregion,wherethemajorityofhouseholds
heatusingelectricityasanenergysource,were19percenthigherthannormal.This
Outlookassumesthattemperaturesinthisregionduringthefourthquarterof2011
willreturntonearnormallevels.ThisreductioninSouthAtlanticheatingdemand
contributestotheoveralldeclineof2.6percentforresidentialelectricityconsumption
intheregionduring2011.

Growthinthetotalindustrialproductionindexslowsfrom3.7percentin2011to2.0
percentin2012.Theslowingpaceofindustrialoutputgrowthnextyearcontributes
toslowinggrowthofretailsalesofelectricitytotheindustrialsectorfrom1.4percent
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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in2011to0.7percentin2012.EIAexpectsthattotalconsumptionofelectricityduring
2011willgrowby0.4percentfromlastyearslevelfollowedbyadeclineof0.5
percentin2012(U.S.TotalElectricityConsumptionChart).

U.S.ElectricityGeneration.TotalgenerationintheUnitedStatesisexpectedtofallby
62,000megawatthoursperday(0.5percent)in2012fromthelevelduring2011.
Hydroelectricgenerationshouldreturntomorenormallevels,bringingitsshareof
totalgenerationdownfrom7.4percentin2011to6.5percentnextyear.Incontrast,
favorablenaturalgaspricesandadditionstorenewablegenerationcapacityduring
2012shouldboostthesharesprovidedbythesetwoenergysourcesby0.9and0.5
percentagepoints,respectively(U.S.ElectricityGenerationbyFuel,allSectorsChart).

U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices.Afterrelativelymodestgrowthof0.6percentduring
2010,EIAexpectsrisingcoalpricesforelectricitygenerationtopushretailresidential
electricitypricesupby1.9percentthisyear.Asfuelcostsmoderateduringthesecond
halfofthisyearandintonextyear,growthinresidentialpricesshouldslowto0.9
percentduring2012(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPricesChart).

RenewablesandCarbonDioxideEmissions

U.S.Renewables.Ledbyconventionalhydropower,thetotalsupplyofrenewablesis
projectedtogrowabout14percentfrom2010to2011.EIAexpectstotalrenewable
energysupplytoremainflatin2012asthedeclineinhydropoweroffsetsgrowthin
otherrenewableenergysupply.

BecauseofhighlevelsofprecipitationinregionssuchasthePacificNorthwest,2011
promisestobeanabundantyearforhydropowergeneration(growthof0.57trillion
Btuor23percent)thebestyearsince1999.EIAassumesareturntonormalsnow
andrainfalllevelsin2012withhydropowergenerationfallingby0.38trillionBtu(12
percent).

Windenergyisprojectedtoaccountfor39percentoftotalrenewableenergysupply
growthfrom2010to2012,withincreasesof0.24trillionBtu(26percent)in2011and
0.15trillionBtu(12percent)in2012.Thesupplyofgeothermalenergyisalso
projectedtoriseinboth2011and2012andaccountforthesecondlargestshareof
renewablesgrowth(0.20trillionBtuor20percent)from2010to2012.

Thewoodenergysupplyissecondonlytoconventionalhydropowerintermsofthe
totalenergyvalueofrenewablesources.However,muchofthewoodsupplyis
subjecttoindustrialmarketconditions,especiallyinthepulpandpaperindustry,
withnetgrowthof0.04quadrillionBtubetween2010and2012.Solarenergysupply
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
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representsabout1.5percentoftotalrenewableenergysupplyandisprojectedto
growby3.9percentand9.0percentin2011and2012,respectively.

Intermsofliquidrenewablefuels,EIAprojectsthatbiodieselproductionin2011will
averageabout56thousandbbl/d(860milliongallonstotalannualproduction),
surpassingthe2011RenewableFuelStandard(RFS)BiomassBasedDieselmandateof
800milliongallons,takingadvantageofthe$1pergallonbiodieseltaxcreditwhich
expiresattheendoftheyear.RFScreditsgeneratedabovethecurrentmandatecan
bebankedandusedforcomplianceinthefollowingyearforupto20percentofthe
requirement.In2012,biodieselproductionisforecasttogrowslightlyhigherto61
thousandbbl/d(940milliongallons),justreachingthe2012RFSmandateof1.0billion
gallonsafteraccountingfor60milliongallonsof2011credits.

Ethanolproductiongrowth,whichaveraged120thousandbbl/dannuallybetween
2005and2010,isexpectedtoslow,increasingby30thousandbbl/din2011and10
thousandbbl/din2012,toanaverage910thousandbbl/din2012.Ethanolexports
reducethevolumeofethanolblendedintogasoline.Assumingethanolnetexports
averageabout40thousandbbl/dnextyear,EIAexpectsthat870thousandbbl/dof
ethanolwillbeblendedintogasolinein2012,whichissufficienttosatisfyRFS
requirements.TheexpirationoftheFederalmotorfuelsexcisetaxcreditforethanol
blendingisexpectedtohavelittleeffectonethanolblendinglevels,asethanol
producersdonotcurrentlyappeartobecapturingmuchofthevalueofthecredit.

U.S.CO2Emissions.EIAestimatesthatCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsincreasedby
3.9percentin2010(U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart).Forecastfossil
fuelCO2emissionsfallby0.7percentin2011,asemissionincreasesfromhigher
naturalgasconsumptionareoffsetbydeclinesincoalandpetroleumconsumption.
Increasesinhydroelectricgenerationandotherrenewableenergysourcesin2011also
helptomitigateemissionsgrowth.FossilfuelCO2emissionsin2012fallbyalmost1
percentasexpecteddeclinesincoalemissionsmorethanoutweightheincreasesin
emissionsfrompetroleumandnaturalgas.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2011
11

U.S. Energy Information Administration


Independent Statistics & Analysis

Short--Term Energy Outlook


Short

Chart Gallery for October 2011

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price


dollars per barrel
200
180
160
140

Historical spot price


STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending October 6, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon
4.50

Forecast

Price difference
Retail regular gasoline
Crude oil

4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

Jan 2012

U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon
5.00
Forecast

4.50

Price difference
Retail diesel fuel
Crude oil

4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price


dollars per million Btu
10
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval

0
Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending October 6, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Natural Gas Prices


dollars per thousand cubic feet
25
Residential price
Henry Hub spot price
Composite wellhead price

Forecast

20

15

10

0
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

World Liquid Fuels Consumption


million barrels per day
95

million barrels per day


9.0
Forecast
8.0

Total consumption

90

7.0
6.0

85

5.0

80

4.0

Annual growth
75

3.0
2.0

70

1.0

65

0.0
-1.0

60

-2.0
55

-3.0
2004

2005

2006
China

2007

2008

2009

United States

2010

2011

2012

Other Countries

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.5

Forecast

1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2010
OECD*

2011
Non-OECD Asia

2012

Former Soviet Union

Other

* Countries belonging to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
2.0

Forecast

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2010

2011
OPEC countries
North America
North Sea

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

2012
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.0
2012
0.8

2011

0.6

2010

0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2

Norway

Mexico

United Kingdom

Malaysia

Syria

Other North Sea

Gabon

Australia

Egypt

Sudan

India

Oman

Azerbaijan

Russia

Vietnam

Kazakhstan

Brazil

Colombia

China

Canada

United States

-0.4

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production


(change from previous year)
millions of barrels per day
4

dollars per barrel

World oil consumption (left axis)


Non-OPEC production (left axis)
WTI crude oil price (right axis)

Forecast

100
80
60

2
40
1

20

0
-20

-1

-40
-2
-60
-3

-80

-4
2008-Q1

-100
2009-Q1

2010-Q1

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


million barrels per day
7

Forecast

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Note: Shaded area represents 2000-2010 average (2.7 million barrels per day)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

2010

2012

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks


days of supply
70
Forecast
65
60
55
50
45
400
Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

Total production
(line chart)
9.00

U.S Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production


(million barrels per day)
Change from prior year
(column chart)
1.10

8.75

1.00

8.50

0.90

8.25

0.80

8.00

0.70

7.75

0.60

7.50

0.50

7.25

0.40

7.00

0.30

6.75

0.20

6.50

0.10

6.25

0.00

6.00
2009
Crude oil
Fuel ethanol
Total Production

2010

-0.10
2011
2012
Liquified petroleum gas and pentanes plus
Biodiesel
Forecast

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks


million barrels
400

Forecast

380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
2000
Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption


(million barrels per day)

Total consumption
(line chart)
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
2009

2010

Motor gasoline
Other

2011
Jet fuel
Total consumption

Change from prior year


(column chart)
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
2012

Distillate fuel
Forecast

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories


million barrels
260

Forecast

Total motor gasoline inventory


240
220
200
180

Total distillate fuel inventory

160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

Total consumption
(line chart)
100

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption


(billion cubic feet per day)

Change from prior year


(column chart)
4.0

90

3.5

80

3.0

70

2.5

60

2.0

50

1.5

40

1.0

30

0.5

20

0.0

10

-0.5

-1.0
-1.5

-10
2009

2010
Electric power
Industrial
Total consumption

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

2011

2012

Residential and Commercial


Other
Forecast

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage


billion cubic feet
Forecast

Storage level

4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000

Deviation from 2006 - 2010 average


-2,000
-3,000
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Coal Consumption


(million short tons)

Total consumption
(line chart)
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2009

2010

2011

Electric power

Coke plants

Total consumption

Forecast

Change from prior year


(column chart)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
2012
Retail and general industry

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Coal Production


(million short tons)

Total production
(line chart)
100

Change from prior year


(column chart)
120

95

100

90
80

85
80

60

75

40

70
20

65
60

55

-20

50
-40

45
40

-60
2009

2010

2011

Western region

Appalachian region

Total production

Forecast

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

2012
Interior region

U.S. Electric Power Coal Stocks


million short tons
220

Forecast

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan
2003

Jan
2004

Jan
2005

Jan
2006

Jan
2007

Jan
2008

Jan
2009

Jan
2010

Jan
2011

Jan
2012

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec.
2010

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Electricity Consumption


(million kilowatthours per day)

Total consumption
(line chart)

Change from prior year


(column chart)

13,000

700

12,000

600

11,000

500

10,000

400

9,000

300

8,000

200

7,000

100

6,000

5,000

-100

4,000

-200

3,000

-300
2009

2010

2011

Residential
Industrial
Total consumption

2012

Commercial and transportation


Direct use
Forecast

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Residential Electricity Price


cents per kilowatthour

change from prior year

14
13

Forecast

Monthly average electricity price

36%

12
11

30%

10
9

24%

8
7

18%

Annual growth

6
10.3%

12%

4
4.2%

3
2

5.7%

5.4%
3.2%

2.6%

2.4%

0.9%

6%
2.2%

0.6%

1.9%

0.9%
0%

1
0

-1.6%
-6%

-1
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors


thousand megawatthours per day

Forecast

12,000
10,000
8,000

50.8%

49.8%

49.6%

48.5%

49.0%

48.2%

44.4%

44.9%

43.6%

42.6%

Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Nuclear

6,000
4,000

16.7%

17.9%

18.8%

21.6%

20.1%

21.4%

23.3%

23.8%

23.9%

24.8%

Hydropower
Renewables
Other Sources

2,000
0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share


of Gross Domestic Product
Forecast

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth


(change from previous year)
8%

Forecast

6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
2009

2010
All Fossil Fuels

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

Coal

2011
Petroleum

2012
Natural Gas

2012

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
450
400
2009
2010
2011
2012
Normal

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
1200

2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Normal

1000

800

600

400

200

0
OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions


AK

Pacific

WEST
WA

MIDWEST
ND

MT

OR

Pacific
NV
CA

West
North
Central

SD
W

ID

Mountain
CO

NORTHEAST

MN

NE

VT
W

IA
MO

KS

UT

IL

Middle
Atlantic

PA

IN

WV
NM

AZ

Pacific
HI

VA

KY
OK
TX

EastTN

AR
South
West
Central
South
AL
LA MS
Central

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2011

NH

MA
RI
CT
NJ

DE
MD

NC

South
Atlantic
GA

SC

LEGEND
REGION
Division
State

FL

SOUTH

ME

New

NY England

East
MI
North
Central OH

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- October 2011
Winter of
Fuel / Region
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10 Avg.05-10 10-11
Natural Gas
Northeast
Consumption (mcf**)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
Midwest
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
South
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
West
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
U.S. Average
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
Heating Oil
U.S. Average
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
Electricity
Northeast
Consumption (kwh***)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
Midwest
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
South
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
West
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
U.S. Average
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)

Forecast
11-12
% Change

75.7
16.35
1,238

76.5
14.74
1,128

77.0
15.17
1,168

82.5
15.82
1,306

77.8
13.32
1,036

77.9
15.09
1,175

82.7
12.65
1,047

81.7
13.25
1,083

-1.2
4.7
3.4

77.4
13.46
1,042

79.8
11.06
882

83.3
11.39
949

86.0
11.46
986

83.8
9.42
789

82.1
11.33
930

85.1
9.16
780

83.9
9.29
779

-1.4
1.3
-0.1

51.1
16.49
843

51.9
13.57
704

50.7
14.16
718

53.7
14.05
755

60.7
11.53
700

53.6
13.87
744

55.7
11.02
614

53.6
12.17
653

-3.6
10.4
6.4

50.3
12.96
651

50.8
11.20
569

53.0
11.31
599

50.5
10.86
548

52.3
9.92
518

51.4
11.24
577

51.7
9.61
497

53.0
9.43
499

2.4
-1.9
0.5

64.2
14.57
936

65.5
12.35
809

67.2
12.71
854

69.1
12.86
889

69.3
10.83
751

67.1
12.64
848

69.6
10.42
725

69.0
10.79
744

-0.9
3.5
2.6

616.7
2.44
1,505

624.0
2.42
1,513

633.9
3.33
2,108

678.7
2.65
1,801

643.5
2.85
1,833

639.4
2.74
1,752

679.7
3.38
2,300

671.2
3.71
2,493

-1.2
9.8
8.4

8,623
0.133
1,144

8,680
0.139
1,206

8,722
0.144
1,258

9,113
0.151
1,379

8,762
0.152
1,334

8,780
0.144
1,264

9,116
0.155
1,414

9,044
0.154
1,392

-0.8
-0.8
-1.6

9,959
0.081
802

10,155
0.085
866

10,461
0.089
934

10,641
0.098
1,038

10,511
0.098
1,034

10,345
0.090
935

10,586
0.105
1,109

10,499
0.105
1,105

-0.8
0.5
-0.4

8,402
0.092
774

8,423
0.096
810

8,336
0.098
820

8,669
0.109
942

9,189
0.103
950

8,604
0.100
859

8,829
0.105
928

8,633
0.106
912

-2.2
0.5
-1.8

7,612
0.097
736

7,641
0.102
782

7,835
0.104
812

7,610
0.106
810

7,762
0.111
865

7,692
0.104
801

7,718
0.113
871

7,815
0.115
895

1.3
1.6
2.8

8,109
0.096
782

8,155
0.101
824

8,196
0.104
853

8,372
0.112
938

8,629
0.110
952

8,292
0.105
870

8,475
0.114
962

8,370
0.114
956

-1.2
0.7
-0.6

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- October 2011
Winter of
Fuel / Region
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10 Avg.05-10 10-11
Propane
Northeast
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
Midwest
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)

778.6
2.30
1,790

786.1
2.35
1,849

793.6
2.93
2,324

846.6
2.84
2,405

796.6
2.98
2,376

800.3
2.68
2,149

846.5
3.23
2,734

836.8
3.56
2,979

-1.1
10.2
8.9

778.7
1.81
1,407

803.4
1.79
1,440

842.7
2.23
1,883

864.3
2.08
1,795

848.6
1.97
1,674

827.6
1.98
1,640

857.7
2.12
1,817

846.8
2.22
1,880

-1.3
4.8
3.5

10,753
5,874
715
2,592

10,476
6,282
706
2,490

10,796
5,679
729
2,665

10,851
5,508
742
2,672

0.5
-3.0
1.7
0.2

17,751
444
2,069
4,663

17,919
529
2,152
4,384

17,713
409
2,035
4,736

17,760
384
1,994
4,772

0.3
-6.2
-2.0
0.8

13,298
873
2,102
24,977

13,525
1,007
2,313
23,825

13,248
824
2,014
25,494

13,269
768
1,902
26,057

0.2
-6.8
-5.6
2.2

14,471
281
909
7,657

14,521
310
935
7,395

14,607
272
890
7,745

14,753
261
881
7,848

1.0
-4.1
-1.1
1.3

56,273
7,471
5,795
39,889

56,442
8,129
6,106
38,093

56,363
7,184
5,669
40,641

56,633
6,920
5,519
41,349

0.5
-3.7
-2.6
1.7

4,889
5,657
2,930
3,048
3,960

4,907
5,517
2,518
2,990
3,770

5,257
5,756
2,663
3,016
3,950

5,185
5,663
2,533
3,105
3,888

-1.4
-1.6
-4.9
3.0
-1.6

Number of households by primary space heating fuel (thousands)


Northeast
Natural gas
10,257 10,305 10,445 10,623
Heating oil
6,583
6,489
6,348
6,117
Propane
727
709
685
695
Electricity
2,422
2,451
2,485
2,500
Midwest
Natural gas
17,928 17,975 17,996 17,945
Heating oil
621
576
524
482
Propane
2,254
2,203
2,140
2,094
Electricity
4,142
4,241
4,384
4,490
South
Natural gas
13,608 13,593 13,613 13,511
Heating oil
1,149
1,080
1,013
921
Propane
2,575
2,453
2,283
2,150
Electricity
22,664 23,221 23,845 24,417
West
Natural gas
14,430 14,550 14,607 14,549
Heating oil
350
330
307
285
Propane
983
968
912
905
Electricity
7,153
7,233
7,409
7,522
U.S. Totals
Natural gas
56,223 56,423 56,661 56,629
Heating oil
8,702
8,475
8,191
7,805
Propane
6,540
6,333
6,020
5,844
Electricity
36,380 37,146 38,123 38,929

Heating degree-days
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
U.S. Average

Forecast
11-12
% Change

4,744
5,145
2,373
2,919
3,586

4,804
5,334
2,401
2,946
3,657

4,849
5,620
2,337
3,119
3,746

5,252
5,827
2,550
2,920
3,904

Note: Winter covers the period October 1 through March 31. Fuel consumption per household is based only on households that use that fuel
as the primary space-heating fuel. Included in fuel consumption is consumption for water heating, appliances, and lighting (electricity). Per
household consumption based on an average of EIA 2001 and 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Surveys corrected for actual and
projected heating degree-days.
* Prices include taxes
** thousand cubic feet
*** kilowatthour

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................

5.49

5.40

5.46

5.54

5.57

5.61

5.60

5.84

5.77

5.75

5.69

5.69

5.47

5.65

5.72

Dry Natural Gas Production


(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

57.93

58.56

59.28

60.66

61.05

62.98

63.61

64.44

63.78

64.15

64.42

64.93

59.12

63.03

64.32

Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................

265

265

278

277

274

258

267

270

272

251

257

265

1,085

1,069

1,045

Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ..............................

18.87

19.15

19.47

19.23

19.09

18.75

18.97

19.01

19.02

18.90

19.16

19.11

19.18

18.95

19.05

Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

82.95

54.38

57.90

68.99

83.90

56.47

57.92

70.86

84.01

56.26

58.91

71.62

65.99

67.23

67.69

Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................

265

247

286

250

255

242

284

252

264

226

259

248

1,048

1,033

997

Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................

10.61

10.02

12.01

9.92

10.60

10.14

11.96

10.03

10.65

10.11

11.64

10.14

10.64

10.69

10.64

Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

1.76

1.95

1.79

1.83

2.04

2.26

2.07

1.94

2.05

2.24

2.00

2.02

7.33

8.30

8.31

Total Energy Consumption (d)


(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

25.71

23.15

24.59

24.62

25.93

23.14

24.69

24.80

26.26

23.12

24.22

24.97

98.07

98.56

98.56

Crude Oil (e)


(dollars per barrel) .......................................

75.89

75.34

74.06

81.69

93.98

108.13

98.98

94.33

98.00

98.00

98.00

98.00

76.72

98.91

98.00

Natural Gas Wellhead


(dollars per thousand cubic feet) .................

4.79

4.07

4.11

3.67

4.06

4.10

4.03

3.71

3.83

3.85

3.90

4.12

4.15

3.97

3.93

Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................

2.26

2.26

2.28

2.25

2.35

2.41

2.42

2.36

2.43

2.41

2.37

2.33

2.26

2.39

2.39

Real Gross Domestic Product


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

12,938
2.2

13,059
3.3

13,140
3.5

13,216
3.1

13,228
2.2

13,261
1.5

13,301
1.2

13,347
1.0

13,415
1.4

13,488
1.7

13,553
1.9

13,628
2.1

13,088
3.0

13,284
1.5

13,521
1.8

GDP Implicit Price Deflator


(Index, 2005=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................

110.4
0.6

110.8
1.1

111.2
1.4

111.7
1.6

112.4
1.8

113.1
2.1

113.7
2.3

114.2
2.2

114.4
1.8

114.5
1.2

114.9
1.1

115.4
1.0

111.0
1.2

113.3
2.1

114.8
1.3

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

9,923
-0.3

10,058
1.0

10,114
3.0

10,152
3.5

10,183
2.6

10,208
1.5

10,213
1.0

10,264
1.1

10,315
1.3

10,380
1.7

10,403
1.9

10,427
1.6

10,062
1.8

10,217
1.5

10,381
1.6

85.0
2.2

86.9
7.5

88.1
7.2

89.0
6.6

90.6
6.6

90.9
4.6

91.6
3.9

92.1
3.5

92.7
2.3

93.5
2.8

94.3
3.0

95.2
3.3

87.3
5.8

91.3
4.6

93.9
2.9

2,311
12

422
445

62
930

1,665
68

2,285
33

517
432

77
942

1,624
77

2,264
37

540
348

98
776

1,632
77

4,460
1,455

4,503
1,484

4,534
1,238

Energy Consumption

Energy Prices

Macroeconomic

Manufacturing Production Index


(Index, 2007=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................
Weather
U.S. Heating Degree-Days ..........................
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days ..........................

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011

2012

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)


West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ...........................
Imported Average .............................................................
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ....................................
Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)

78.64
75.28
75.89

77.79
74.32
75.34

76.05
73.32
74.06

85.10
81.03
81.69

93.50
94.23
93.98

102.22
108.72
108.13

89.72
100.11
98.98

84.00
95.29
94.33

88.00
99.00
98.00

88.00
99.00
98.00

88.00
99.00
98.00

88.00
99.00
98.00

79.40
75.87
76.72

92.36
99.66
98.91

88.00
99.00
98.00

211
209
205

218
220
212

210
215
204

227
240
234

267
286
275

309
316
305

299
306
298

269
291
286

275
291
285

283
291
280

279
289
279

268
288
282

217
221
215

286
300
288

276
290
283

210
172

219
170

214
166

238
182

287
218

322
246

306
241

292
232

295
232

292
229

290
228

290
230

220
172

302
233

292
230

271
277
285
293

281
286
303
292

272
277
294
281

288
294
315
310

329
335
363
359

380
385
401
391

363
369
387
369

336
341
372
370

340
345
375
373

350
356
375
363

348
353
372
363

334
339
372
371

278
283
299
296

352
358
380
369

343
349
373
371

Average Wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ......


Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ..........
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) .........................
End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

4.79
5.30
5.15

4.07
4.45
4.32

4.11
4.41
4.28

3.67
3.91
3.80

4.06
4.31
4.18

4.10
4.50
4.37

4.03
4.25
4.12

3.71
4.03
3.92

3.83
4.31
4.18

3.85
4.37
4.24

3.90
4.39
4.26

4.12
4.74
4.60

4.15
4.52
4.39

3.97
4.27
4.15

3.93
4.45
4.32

Industrial Sector ............................................................


Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................
Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

6.51
9.34
10.59

4.98
9.26
12.55

5.07
9.64
15.49

4.89
8.66
10.56

5.41
8.74
9.97

5.13
9.14
11.95

5.15
9.80
16.12

5.37
9.44
11.21

5.64
9.13
10.34

5.28
9.30
12.24

5.32
9.89
16.36

5.95
9.92
12.00

5.40
9.15
11.19

5.27
9.14
11.05

5.56
9.48
11.53

Coal ...............................................................................
Natural Gas ..................................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...........................................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

2.26
6.06
12.10
15.84

2.26
4.89
12.36
16.48

2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18

2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94

2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99

2.41
4.94
18.32
23.55

2.42
4.91
18.33
23.49

2.36
4.78
17.81
22.89

2.43
5.01
18.19
22.90

2.41
4.95
18.38
22.82

2.37
4.94
18.32
22.80

2.33
5.25
18.28
23.17

2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60

2.39
4.92
17.67
22.72

2.39
5.03
18.30
22.93

Industrial Sector ............................................................


Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................

6.53
9.87
10.88

6.75
10.30
11.90

7.17
10.71
12.02

6.67
10.06
11.50

6.68
10.01
11.24

6.85
10.38
11.97

7.29
10.79
12.23

6.79
10.18
11.70

6.62
10.03
11.21

6.86
10.47
12.15

7.28
10.99
12.46

6.78
10.32
11.82

6.79
10.26
11.58

6.91
10.36
11.80

6.89
10.47
11.91

Refiner Prices for Resale


Gasoline ........................................................................
Diesel Fuel ....................................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel .........................................................................
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ..........................................
Gasoline All Grades (b) .................................................
On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Natural Gas

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

21.42
9.69
3.49
2.98
3.73
1.53
65.50
35.15
29.77
5.39
13.18
4.27
12.90
86.93

21.52
9.93
3.58
2.96
3.52
1.52
66.33
35.57
29.74
5.83
13.33
4.41
13.01
87.84

21.74
10.00
3.78
2.91
3.50
1.55
67.67
36.30
30.01
6.29
13.43
4.55
13.39
89.41

53.04

51.77

52.27

53.11

45.53
19.16
0.31
2.22
14.35
4.18
5.31
44.86
4.73
0.78
10.59
10.22
18.54
90.40

46.10
19.11
0.31
2.20
14.34
4.58
5.56
44.62
4.72
0.78
10.84
10.51
17.77
90.73

46.10
19.18
0.24
2.21
14.58
4.45
5.43
40.97
4.29
0.73
9.19
9.93
16.83
87.08

45.74
18.95
0.30
2.21
14.34
4.49
5.44
42.66
4.54
0.76
9.88
10.23
17.25
88.40

45.68
19.05
0.31
2.18
14.21
4.48
5.45
44.16
4.62
0.76
10.45
10.45
17.89
89.84

-0.42
0.04
0.07
-0.31

-0.14
0.41
0.69
0.96

0.52
0.21
0.35
1.08

-0.05
-0.03
0.23
0.15

0.16
0.04
0.35
0.56

0.00
0.16
0.27
0.43

1,074
2,651

1,087
2,626

1,039
2,559

1,068
2,660

1,039
2,617

1,039
2,559

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Supply (million barrels per day) (a)


OECD ................................................
U.S. (50 States) .............................
Canada ..........................................
Mexico ............................................
North Sea (b) .................................
Other OECD ...................................
Non-OECD ........................................
OPEC .............................................
Crude Oil Portion ........................
Other Liquids ...............................
Former Soviet Union ......................
China ..............................................
Other Non-OECD ...........................
Total World Supply ............................

21.56
9.58
3.37
3.02
4.08
1.51
64.55
34.51
29.40
5.11
13.11
4.16
12.78
86.11

21.34
9.58
3.47
2.99
3.74
1.55
65.30
35.02
29.65
5.37
13.15
4.23
12.89
86.64

21.05
9.70
3.49
2.97
3.36
1.54
66.18
35.71
30.15
5.57
13.18
4.31
12.97
87.23

21.75
9.89
3.64
2.95
3.76
1.51
65.95
35.35
29.85
5.49
13.27
4.39
12.95
87.70

21.43
9.77
3.60
2.99
3.61
1.46
65.99
35.32
29.78
5.54
13.28
4.36
13.03
87.42

21.18
9.98
3.40
2.98
3.34
1.48
64.95
34.67
29.20
5.48
13.27
4.33
12.67
86.13

21.61
9.90
3.66
2.95
3.50
1.60
67.35
36.24
30.07
6.17
13.38
4.48
13.25
88.96

21.83
10.08
3.66
2.92
3.62
1.54
67.00
36.05
29.90
6.14
13.38
4.47
13.10
88.83

21.85
9.95
3.73
2.94
3.70
1.54
67.37
36.01
29.79
6.22
13.60
4.50
13.26
89.22

21.80
10.04
3.76
2.92
3.55
1.54
67.53
36.09
29.82
6.28
13.51
4.55
13.37
89.33

21.61
10.02
3.80
2.91
3.32
1.56
67.83
36.48
30.13
6.35
13.37
4.56
13.42
89.44

21.70
10.01
3.84
2.89
3.42
1.54
67.95
36.60
30.29
6.31
13.25
4.58
13.52
89.65

Non-OPEC Supply ............................

51.60

51.62

51.51

52.35

52.10

51.46

52.72

52.78

53.21

53.24

52.96

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)


OECD ................................................
45.88
U.S. (50 States) .............................
18.87
U.S. Territories ...............................
0.24
Canada ..........................................
2.15
Europe ............................................ 14.31
Japan .............................................
4.82
Other OECD ...................................
5.48
Non-OECD ........................................
39.70
Former Soviet Union ......................
4.21
Europe ............................................
0.72
China ..............................................
8.74
Other Asia ......................................
9.89
Other Non-OECD ...........................
16.14
Total World Consumption .................
85.58

45.26
19.15
0.24
2.17
14.25
4.07
5.37
41.03
4.16
0.73
9.18
10.08
16.88
86.28

46.57
19.47
0.24
2.26
14.92
4.36
5.32
41.28
4.39
0.73
9.04
9.68
17.44
87.86

46.68
19.23
0.24
2.25
14.82
4.57
5.57
41.86
4.40
0.75
9.79
10.08
16.84
88.54

46.19
19.09
0.30
2.25
14.18
4.86
5.52
41.17
4.47
0.74
9.28
10.21
16.47
87.37

44.50
18.75
0.30
2.17
14.13
3.92
5.24
42.88
4.40
0.75
9.99
10.40
17.34
87.38

45.83
18.97
0.30
2.23
14.54
4.43
5.36
43.42
4.65
0.77
9.99
10.00
18.00
89.25

46.43
19.01
0.30
2.20
14.52
4.77
5.62
43.13
4.65
0.77
10.24
10.29
17.19
89.56

46.32
19.01
0.31
2.18
14.24
5.02
5.56
42.87
4.54
0.75
9.90
10.44
17.24
89.20

44.75
18.90
0.31
2.12
13.90
4.14
5.38
44.28
4.47
0.75
10.44
10.63
17.99
89.02

Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)


U.S. (50 States) ................................
-0.12
-0.60
Other OECD ......................................
-0.26
-0.32
Other Stock Draws and Balance ......
-0.15
0.57
Total Stock Draw ............................
-0.53
-0.36

-0.21
0.31
0.53
0.63

0.73
0.14
-0.02
0.84

0.27
0.15
-0.48
-0.05

-0.42
-0.08
1.76
1.26

0.29
0.00
0.00
0.29

0.51
0.09
0.14
0.73

0.03
-0.02
-0.04
-0.02

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


U.S. Commercial Inventory ..............
1,060
OECD Commercial Inventory ...........
2,665

1,135
2,740

1,068
2,660

1,043
2,622

1,081
2,668

1,085
2,672

1,039
2,617

1,036
2,616

1,115
2,749

2010

- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

16.16
3.49
2.98
9.69

16.48
3.58
2.96
9.93

16.70
3.78
2.91
10.00

5.28
0.73
3.04
1.05
0.46

4.79
0.78
2.74
0.80
0.46

4.98
0.73
2.86
0.94
0.45

5.20
0.73
2.99
1.02
0.46

4.22
1.98
1.10
0.24

4.32
2.03
1.14
0.24

4.61
2.13
1.32
0.28

4.43
2.05
1.20
0.26

4.40
2.07
1.18
0.25

13.51
1.19
1.80
10.14
0.21
0.38

13.37
1.14
1.82
10.03
0.21
0.38

13.25
1.09
1.83
9.96
0.21
0.38

13.18
1.04
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.39

13.33
1.03
1.68
10.23
0.21
0.39

13.43
1.15
1.81
10.09
0.21
0.38

1.51
0.88
0.35
0.24

1.50
0.88
0.35
0.23

1.50
0.88
0.35
0.22

1.51
0.88
0.36
0.23

1.58
0.87
0.40
0.26

1.50
0.87
0.37
0.20

1.51
0.88
0.35
0.23

9.15
0.55
4.47
0.99
1.02
0.65
0.42

9.24
0.55
4.50
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.45

9.29
0.55
4.55
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.48

9.33
0.56
4.56
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.50

9.36
0.53
4.58
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.52

8.88
0.55
4.27
0.95
1.03
0.67
0.34

9.00
0.52
4.41
1.00
1.01
0.64
0.38

9.30
0.55
4.55
1.00
1.03
0.64
0.49

2.60
0.69
0.30
0.22
0.46

2.56
0.69
0.29
0.21
0.46

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46

2.57
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46

2.57
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46

2.58
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51

2.55
0.67
0.30
0.21
0.47

2.57
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46

51.46

52.72

52.78

53.21

53.24

52.96

53.04

51.77

52.27

53.11

5.48
56.93

6.17
58.89

6.14
58.93

6.22
59.43

6.28
59.52

6.35
59.31

6.31
59.35

5.39
57.16

5.83
58.10

6.29
59.40

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

North America ...................................


Canada ................................................
Mexico ..................................................
United States .......................................

15.97
3.37
3.02
9.58

16.04
3.47
2.99
9.58

16.16
3.49
2.97
9.70

16.48
3.64
2.95
9.89

16.36
3.60
2.99
9.77

16.37
3.40
2.98
9.98

16.51
3.66
2.95
9.90

16.67
3.66
2.92
10.08

16.61
3.73
2.94
9.95

16.72
3.76
2.92
10.04

16.72
3.80
2.91
10.02

16.74
3.84
2.89
10.01

Central and South America ............


Argentina .............................................
Brazil ....................................................
Colombia ..............................................
Other Central and S. America .............

4.72
0.80
2.68
0.77
0.47

4.80
0.79
2.75
0.79
0.46

4.81
0.79
2.75
0.81
0.46

4.83
0.75
2.80
0.83
0.45

4.92
0.78
2.82
0.88
0.45

4.91
0.70
2.83
0.93
0.45

5.06
0.72
2.92
0.96
0.46

5.01
0.71
2.87
0.97
0.45

5.07
0.73
2.89
1.00
0.46

5.21
0.73
3.02
1.01
0.46

5.25
0.73
3.02
1.03
0.46

Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom (offshore) ..................
Other North Sea ..................................

4.92
2.32
1.46
0.30

4.61
2.11
1.35
0.29

4.24
1.93
1.18
0.25

4.65
2.18
1.30
0.28

4.52
2.10
1.24
0.27

4.26
1.94
1.12
0.27

4.42
2.09
1.15
0.26

4.53
2.07
1.30
0.26

4.59
2.14
1.30
0.26

4.44
2.12
1.18
0.25

Former Soviet Union (FSU) ..............


Azerbaijan ............................................
Kazakhstan ..........................................
Russia ..................................................
Turkmenistan .......................................
Other FSU ...........................................

13.11
1.00
1.61
10.10
0.20
0.41

13.15
1.05
1.57
10.14
0.20
0.39

13.18
1.05
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.38

13.27
1.06
1.66
10.17
0.21
0.39

13.28
1.00
1.67
10.22
0.21
0.39

13.27
1.00
1.64
10.24
0.21
0.38

13.38
1.00
1.69
10.30
0.21
0.39

13.38
1.11
1.73
10.16
0.21
0.39

13.60
1.19
1.79
10.23
0.21
0.38

Middle East ........................................


Oman ...................................................
Syria .....................................................
Yemen .................................................

1.59
0.86
0.40
0.27

1.58
0.86
0.40
0.26

1.57
0.87
0.40
0.25

1.58
0.88
0.40
0.25

1.56
0.89
0.38
0.24

1.40
0.87
0.38
0.10

1.53
0.87
0.37
0.23

1.49
0.86
0.35
0.23

Asia and Oceania ............................


Australia ...............................................
China ...................................................
India .....................................................
Indonesia .............................................
Malaysia ...............................................
Vietnam ................................................

8.68
0.56
4.16
0.91
1.02
0.68
0.35

8.84
0.58
4.23
0.92
1.04
0.67
0.34

8.99
0.55
4.31
0.98
1.04
0.65
0.36

9.00
0.53
4.39
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.34

8.90
0.46
4.36
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36

8.73
0.47
4.33
0.99
0.99
0.58
0.32

9.23
0.59
4.48
1.00
1.03
0.67
0.41

Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................

2.61
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51

2.59
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51

2.56
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51

2.54
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.51

2.55
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.49

2.51
0.65
0.31
0.20
0.47

Total non-OPEC liquids ....................

51.60

51.62

51.51

52.35

52.10

OPEC non-crude liquids .................


Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .......

5.11
56.71

5.37
56.99

5.57
57.08

5.49
57.85

5.54
57.64

2010

- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.28
1.65
2.05
0.85
8.78
2.30
2.11
29.77

29.74

30.01

6.31

5.39

5.83

6.29

36.48

36.60

35.15

35.57

36.30

33.33

33.64

33.80

1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.60
1.65
2.05
0.85
12.19
2.60
2.11
33.76

32.76

33.47

3.51

3.51

3.51

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.41
0.30
0.00
3.99

3.02

3.46

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Crude Oil
Algeria ..........................................
Angola ..........................................
Ecudaor ........................................
Iran ...............................................
Iraq ...............................................
Kuwait ...........................................
Libya .............................................
Nigeria ..........................................
Qatar ............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ...............................

1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.30
1.65
2.03
0.84
8.20
2.30
2.07
29.40

1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.23
1.65
1.95
0.85
8.70
2.30
2.09
29.65

1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.30
1.65
2.08
0.85
9.30
2.30
2.10
30.15

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.30
1.65
2.12
0.85
8.90
2.30
2.17
29.85

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.33
1.09
2.13
0.85
9.03
2.43
2.20
29.78

1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.50
0.17
2.15
0.85
9.13
2.60
2.20
29.20

1.27
1.70
0.48
3.65
2.63
2.53
0.07
2.19
0.85
9.90
2.60
2.20
30.07

29.90

29.79

29.82

30.13

30.29

Other Liquids .................................

5.11

5.37

5.57

5.49

5.54

5.48

6.17

6.14

6.22

6.28

6.35

Total OPEC Supply ........................

34.51

35.02

35.71

35.35

35.32

34.67

36.24

36.05

36.01

36.09

Crude Oil Production Capacity


Algeria ..........................................
Angola ..........................................
Ecudaor ........................................
Iran ...............................................
Iraq ...............................................
Kuwait ...........................................
Libya .............................................
Nigeria ..........................................
Qatar ............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ...............................

1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.60
1.65
2.03
0.85
12.00
2.60
2.07
33.69

1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.60
1.65
1.95
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.09
33.85

1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.60
1.65
2.08
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.10
33.70

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.60
1.65
2.12
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.17
33.81

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.55
1.09
2.13
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
33.41

1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.55
0.17
2.15
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
32.42

1.27
1.70
0.48
3.65
2.63
2.55
0.07
2.19
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
32.50

32.71

33.10

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


Algeria ..........................................
0.00
Angola ..........................................
0.00
Ecudaor ........................................
0.00
Iran ...............................................
0.00
Iraq ...............................................
0.00
Kuwait ...........................................
0.30
Libya .............................................
0.00
Nigeria ..........................................
0.00
Qatar ............................................
0.01
Saudi Arabia .................................
3.80
United Arab Emirates ....................
0.30
Venezuela .....................................
0.00
4.29
OPEC Total ...............................

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.55
0.30
0.00
4.19

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.95
0.30
0.00
3.55

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.35
0.30
0.00
3.95

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.22
0.23
0.00
3.63

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.12
0.06
0.00
3.22

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.35
0.06
0.00
2.43

2.81

3.31

2010

- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

North America ............................................................


Canada ........................................................................
Mexico .........................................................................
United States ...............................................................

23.11
2.15
2.07
18.87

23.43
2.17
2.10
19.15

23.79
2.26
2.05
19.47

23.55
2.25
2.07
19.23

23.37
2.25
2.03
19.09

22.97
2.17
2.05
18.75

23.31
2.23
2.11
18.97

23.34
2.20
2.11
19.01

23.31
2.18
2.10
19.01

23.14
2.12
2.12
18.90

23.48
2.22
2.09
19.16

23.43
2.20
2.10
19.11

Central and South America .....................................


Brazil ............................................................................

6.12
2.52

6.36
2.63

6.51
2.73

6.45
2.72

6.38
2.66

6.61
2.77

6.63
2.83

6.62
2.81

6.59
2.81

6.83
2.92

6.86
2.98

Europe .......................................................................

15.03

14.98

15.65

15.58

14.92

14.87

15.31

15.30

14.99

14.65

Former Soviet Union ..................................................


Russia ..........................................................................

4.21
2.88

4.16
2.85

4.39
3.00

4.40
3.01

4.47
3.04

4.40
2.99

4.65
3.17

4.65
3.16

4.54
3.07

Middle East ................................................................

6.96

7.37

7.82

7.25

7.08

7.74

8.40

7.57

Asia and Oceania .....................................................


China ...........................................................................
Japan ...........................................................................
India .............................................................................

26.86
8.74
4.82
3.23

26.61
9.18
4.07
3.29

26.35
9.04
4.36
2.99

27.94
9.79
4.57
3.23

27.85
9.28
4.86
3.39

27.52
9.99
3.92
3.38

27.69
9.99
4.43
3.10

Africa ..........................................................................

3.28

3.38

3.34

3.37

3.29

3.27

Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ..................


Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ...........

45.88
39.70

45.26
41.03

46.57
41.28

46.68
41.86

46.19
41.17

Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption ...................

85.58

86.28

87.86

88.54

World Real Gross Domestic Product (a) .................


Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 ..................................................
Percent change from prior year ...................................

105.53
4.3

106.79
4.9

107.60
4.5

Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (a)


Index, January 2007 = 100 ..........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................................

97.52
-6.4

99.77
-1.1

98.63
0.8

2010

2011

2012

23.47
2.21
2.07
19.18

23.25
2.21
2.07
18.95

23.34
2.18
2.11
19.05

6.84
2.97

6.36
2.65

6.56
2.77

6.78
2.92

15.13

15.11

15.31

15.10

14.97

4.47
3.03

4.73
3.20

4.72
3.19

4.29
2.94

4.54
3.09

4.62
3.12

7.59

8.11

8.67

7.88

7.35

7.70

8.06

28.82
10.24
4.77
3.35

28.83
9.90
5.02
3.50

28.48
10.44
4.14
3.49

28.22
10.59
4.18
3.20

29.41
10.84
4.58
3.46

26.94
9.19
4.45
3.18

27.97
9.88
4.49
3.30

28.73
10.45
4.48
3.41

3.24

3.28

3.35

3.33

3.31

3.34

3.34

3.27

3.33

44.50
42.88

45.83
43.42

46.43
43.13

46.32
42.87

44.75
44.28

45.53
44.86

46.10
44.62

46.10
40.97

45.74
42.66

45.68
44.16

87.37

87.38

89.25

89.56

89.20

89.02

90.40

90.73

87.08

88.40

89.84

108.52
4.2

109.30
3.6

109.84
2.9

110.59
2.8

111.52
2.8

112.59
3.0

113.60
3.4

114.67
3.7

115.83
3.9

107.12
4.5

110.32
3.0

114.18
3.5

96.10
0.8

97.24
-0.3

96.93
-2.8

96.36
-2.3

95.81
-0.3

95.58
-1.7

95.67
-1.3

95.73
-0.7

95.79
0.0

98.00
-1.6

96.58
-1.4

95.69
-0.9

- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S.
dollar.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .........................................
Alaska .................................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ...................................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ...............................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................
SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain .......................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production .............................
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ...........
Fuel Ethanol Production ......................................
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................
Product Net Imports (c) ..........................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .....................................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ..........................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................
Residual Fuel Oil .................................................
Other Oils (g) .......................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................
Total Supply ...............................................................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

5.49
0.64
1.65
3.20
8.82
0.00
-0.38
0.04
13.98

5.40
0.58
1.52
3.30
9.73
0.00
-0.07
0.18
15.24

5.46
0.57
1.52
3.37
9.52
0.00
0.03
0.12
15.13

5.54
0.61
1.51
3.42
8.61
0.00
0.32
0.06
14.54

5.57
0.56
1.54
3.47
8.68
0.00
-0.32
0.31
14.23

5.61
0.58
1.46
3.57
8.95
0.00
0.05
0.21
14.81

5.60
0.51
1.28
3.81
9.04
0.33
0.24
0.24
15.45

5.84
0.57
1.40
3.87
8.72
0.00
0.15
-0.03
14.67

5.77
0.55
1.43
3.79
8.85
0.00
-0.27
0.06
14.42

5.75
0.53
1.40
3.81
9.21
0.00
0.04
0.09
15.08

5.69
0.51
1.35
3.82
9.30
0.00
0.14
0.04
15.16

5.69
0.49
1.36
3.85
8.72
0.00
0.14
-0.02
14.54

5.47
0.60
1.55
3.32
9.17
0.00
-0.02
0.10
14.72

5.65
0.55
1.42
3.68
8.85
0.08
0.03
0.18
14.79

5.72
0.52
1.38
3.82
9.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
14.80

1.03
2.05
0.87
0.84
0.15
0.54
-0.03
0.08
0.52
-0.06
0.61
-0.12
0.01
-0.10
-0.02
-0.35
0.26
18.87

1.06
2.07
0.89
0.85
0.16
0.26
-0.01
-0.01
0.57
-0.07
0.74
-0.11
0.02
-0.48
-0.03
-0.38
-0.53
19.15

1.10
2.06
0.91
0.87
0.18
0.35
0.01
-0.02
0.65
-0.09
0.83
-0.12
0.03
-0.54
-0.07
-0.34
-0.24
19.47

1.08
2.13
0.95
0.91
0.18
-0.06
0.01
0.03
0.68
-0.09
0.62
-0.30
-0.01
-0.58
-0.03
-0.39
0.41
19.23

1.03
2.04
0.95
0.91
0.18
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.62
-0.10
0.65
-0.30
-0.04
-0.44
0.02
-0.39
0.60
19.08

1.06
2.19
0.94
0.89
0.19
0.02
0.06
-0.08
0.65
-0.11
0.83
-0.31
0.01
-0.62
-0.03
-0.38
-0.46
18.75

1.09
2.14
0.93
0.89
0.14
-0.46
0.00
-0.04
0.66
-0.08
0.59
-0.25
-0.03
-0.74
-0.18
-0.40
-0.28
19.00

1.05
2.14
0.92
0.89
0.13
-0.26
-0.02
-0.01
0.64
-0.09
0.63
-0.38
-0.06
-0.46
-0.09
-0.41
0.36
19.02

1.00
2.11
0.94
0.91
0.13
0.12
-0.01
0.06
0.61
-0.09
0.68
-0.33
-0.04
-0.44
-0.01
-0.32
0.30
19.02

1.02
2.20
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.02
-0.01
-0.05
0.61
-0.09
0.74
-0.30
-0.01
-0.46
-0.05
-0.40
-0.47
18.90

1.05
2.21
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.07
-0.01
-0.07
0.72
-0.09
0.71
-0.22
-0.03
-0.55
-0.10
-0.42
-0.28
19.16

1.04
2.20
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.12
-0.02
-0.05
0.61
-0.09
0.70
-0.34
-0.05
-0.35
-0.10
-0.43
0.38
19.11

1.07
2.07
0.91
0.87
0.17
0.27
-0.01
0.02
0.61
-0.08
0.70
-0.16
0.01
-0.43
-0.04
-0.36
-0.03
19.18

1.06
2.13
0.94
0.90
0.16
-0.16
0.01
-0.02
0.64
-0.10
0.68
-0.31
-0.03
-0.57
-0.07
-0.40
0.05
18.96

1.03
2.18
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.02
-0.01
-0.03
0.64
-0.09
0.71
-0.30
-0.03
-0.45
-0.06
-0.39
-0.02
19.05

0.09
2.46
0.03

0.07
1.89
0.02

0.11
2.03
0.00

0.10
2.32
0.00

0.10
2.45
0.06

0.11
1.95
-0.03

0.10
1.99
0.01

0.10
2.25
0.01

0.09
2.44
0.01

0.08
1.98
0.00

0.09
2.05
0.00

0.10
2.29
0.02

0.09
2.17
0.01

0.10
2.16
0.01

0.09
2.19
0.01

8.63
1.38
3.79
0.55
1.93
18.87

9.19
1.47
3.71
0.54
2.25
19.15

9.22
1.48
3.75
0.53
2.35
19.47

8.92
1.40
3.94
0.52
2.04
19.23

8.60
1.36
3.95
0.60
1.96
19.09

8.86
1.47
3.75
0.52
2.11
18.75

8.98
1.47
3.72
0.42
2.29
18.97

8.78
1.39
3.95
0.49
2.04
19.01

8.59
1.36
3.97
0.56
1.99
19.02

8.90
1.45
3.76
0.52
2.19
18.90

9.08
1.47
3.74
0.46
2.27
19.16

8.83
1.39
4.01
0.48
2.01
19.11

8.99
1.43
3.80
0.54
2.14
19.18

8.81
1.42
3.84
0.50
2.10
18.95

8.85
1.42
3.87
0.50
2.12
19.05

................................

9.36

9.99

9.87

8.55

8.74

8.97

8.57

8.46

8.97

9.19

9.23

8.60

9.44

8.68

9.00

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


Commercial Inventory
Crude Oil (excluding SPR) .....................................
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates .............................................
Total Motor Gasoline ..............................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Commercial Inventory .......................................
Crude Oil in SPR .......................................................
Heating Oil Reserve ..................................................

359.2
9.4
72.9
87.2
22.6
225.0
81.9
143.1
42.2
146.8
40.7
54.4
1,060
727
2.0

365.5
11.5
119.9
84.2
20.5
215.6
71.8
143.8
44.8
157.9
42.7
52.3
1,115
727
2.0

362.8
11.9
141.4
83.3
18.9
219.3
70.2
149.0
46.8
166.7
40.1
43.4
1,135
727
2.0

333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0

362.6
10.8
68.7
87.4
23.2
214.9
60.8
154.1
40.0
148.5
37.1
49.6
1,043
727
0.0

358.5
15.3
105.3
91.9
21.2
215.2
56.4
158.8
42.3
143.7
37.4
50.5
1,081
727
0.0

336.4
17.0
131.9
83.9
19.8
213.9
56.3
157.6
46.4
156.9
33.6
45.3
1,085
696
0.0

322.8
14.0
100.5
80.4
19.4
219.0
55.7
163.2
43.6
158.4
34.5
45.9
1,039
696
1.0

347.1
13.0
70.4
89.7
21.4
219.1
53.2
165.9
43.6
139.1
37.2
54.9
1,036
696
1.0

343.2
14.4
110.1
86.3
20.5
217.9
56.1
161.8
43.8
147.8
38.3
51.9
1,074
696
1.0

330.3
15.0
137.6
85.9
21.0
212.5
56.1
156.4
44.5
157.5
37.6
44.6
1,087
696
1.0

317.1
12.5
103.7
80.0
20.5
220.8
56.4
164.4
42.0
158.6
37.8
45.4
1,039
696
1.0

333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0

322.8
14.0
100.5
80.4
19.4
219.0
55.7
163.2
43.6
158.4
34.5
45.9
1,039
696
1.0

317.1
12.5
103.7
80.0
20.5
220.8
56.4
164.4
42.0
158.6
37.8
45.4
1,039
696
1.0

Consumption (million barrels per day)


Natural Gas Liquids and Other Liquids
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Finished Liquid Fuels
Motor Gasoline .......................................................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Consumption ....................................................
Total Liquid Fuels Net Imports

- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs


Crude OIl ............................................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates .......................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Components ....................
Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs ...................

13.98
0.14
0.30
0.88
0.41
0.48
0.00
16.20

15.24
0.15
0.24
0.97
0.58
0.73
0.00
17.91

15.13
0.16
0.24
0.98
0.66
0.86
0.00
18.03

14.54
0.17
0.37
0.99
0.71
0.61
0.00
17.38

14.23
0.17
0.34
0.96
0.48
0.60
0.00
16.78

14.81
0.18
0.26
1.01
0.63
0.82
0.00
17.72

15.45
0.16
0.26
0.98
0.74
0.62
0.00
18.21

14.67
0.17
0.38
0.93
0.67
0.57
0.00
17.40

14.42
0.16
0.33
0.95
0.49
0.63
0.00
16.97

15.08
0.17
0.25
0.97
0.65
0.76
0.00
17.89

15.16
0.17
0.25
0.95
0.72
0.76
0.00
18.02

14.54
0.17
0.37
0.95
0.65
0.62
0.00
17.32

14.72
0.16
0.29
0.96
0.59
0.67
0.00
17.38

14.79
0.17
0.31
0.97
0.63
0.65
0.00
17.53

14.80
0.17
0.30
0.96
0.63
0.69
0.00
17.55

Refinery Processing Gain .................................

1.03

1.06

1.10

1.08

1.03

1.06

1.09

1.05

1.00

1.02

1.05

1.04

1.07

1.06

1.03

Refinery and Blender Net Production


Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ...............................................................
Distillate Fuel ......................................................
Residual Fuel ......................................................
Other Oils (a) ......................................................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ...........

0.58
8.59
1.35
3.68
0.61
2.40
17.22

0.86
9.13
1.47
4.31
0.59
2.61
18.97

0.75
9.36
1.47
4.39
0.57
2.59
19.13

0.44
9.14
1.38
4.50
0.56
2.44
18.46

0.52
8.76
1.37
4.21
0.53
2.41
17.80

0.81
9.12
1.49
4.31
0.55
2.50
18.78

0.74
9.22
1.55
4.60
0.56
2.63
19.30

0.43
9.11
1.42
4.44
0.59
2.46
18.45

0.53
8.84
1.40
4.20
0.59
2.42
17.98

0.82
9.17
1.46
4.32
0.58
2.56
18.91

0.76
9.25
1.50
4.40
0.56
2.61
19.08

0.42
9.13
1.41
4.37
0.58
2.45
18.36

0.66
9.06
1.42
4.22
0.58
2.51
18.45

0.63
9.05
1.46
4.39
0.56
2.50
18.59

0.63
9.10
1.44
4.32
0.58
2.51
18.58

Refinery Distillation Inputs ...............................


Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ..........
Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor ..............

14.32
17.59
0.81

15.66
17.57
0.89

15.65
17.59
0.89

15.06
17.55
0.86

14.69
17.70
0.83

15.22
17.74
0.86

15.82
17.74
0.89

15.05
17.74
0.85

14.76
17.74
0.83

15.39
17.74
0.87

15.50
17.74
0.87

14.90
17.74
0.84

15.18
17.57
0.86

15.20
17.73
0.86

15.14
17.74
0.85

- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st

2nd

Prices (cents per gallon)


Refiner Wholesale Price .......................
211
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes
PADD 1 ..............................................
271
PADD 2 ..............................................
265
PADD 3 ..............................................
259
PADD 4 ..............................................
264
PADD 5 ..............................................
294
U.S. Average ...................................
271
Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes
277
End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
Total Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
56.8
PADD 2 ..............................................
55.2
PADD 3 ..............................................
74.9
PADD 4 ..............................................
5.9
PADD 5 ..............................................
32.3
U.S. Total ........................................
225.0
Finished Gasoline Inventories
U.S. Total ........................................
81.9
Gasoline Blending Components Inventories
U.S. Total ........................................
143.1

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

218

210

227

267

309

299

269

275

283

279

268

217

286

276

278
276
269
284
304
281
286

265
270
257
279
304
272
277

288
286
272
279
311
288
294

329
326
314
311
353
329
335

377
380
365
365
400
380
385

364
364
349
355
377
363
369

335
329
320
335
362
336
341

339
333
326
331
364
340
345

348
344
336
345
379
350
356

346
342
331
347
376
348
353

333
326
319
331
361
334
339

275
274
264
276
303
278
283

352
350
337
342
373
352
358

342
336
328
339
370
343
349

60.1
49.3
72.5
6.4
27.3
215.6

55.3
52.5
73.9
6.5
31.1
219.3

52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4

55.0
50.5
70.3
6.5
32.7
214.9

55.1
49.5
73.5
6.6
30.4
215.2

55.4
49.3
74.9
6.0
28.3
213.9

56.9
49.9
75.1
6.7
30.4
219.0

56.9
51.3
74.7
6.5
29.7
219.1

57.5
50.5
73.4
6.2
30.2
217.9

55.7
50.0
71.5
6.3
29.0
212.5

57.9
50.8
74.8
6.9
30.5
220.8

52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4

56.9
49.9
75.1
6.7
30.4
219.0

57.9
50.8
74.8
6.9
30.5
220.8

71.8

70.2

63.3

60.8

56.4

56.3

55.7

53.2

56.1

56.1

56.4

63.3

55.7

56.4

143.8

149.0

156.2

154.1

158.8

157.6

163.2

165.9

161.8

156.4

164.4

156.2

163.2

164.4

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010

2011

2012

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

60.59
1.16
6.67
52.77
57.93
11.42
9.87
1.55
3.12
8.29
0.20
16.26
82.68
0.28
82.95

61.27
0.98
6.22
54.07
58.56
9.65
8.44
1.22
2.77
6.89
0.16
-11.94
53.67
0.70
54.38

61.97
0.89
5.94
55.14
59.28
9.95
9.01
0.94
2.71
7.23
0.19
-8.22
58.48
-0.58
57.90

63.46
1.11
5.82
56.54
60.66
10.00
8.97
1.03
3.85
6.14
0.19
4.08
71.07
-2.08
68.99

63.83
1.12
5.60
57.10
61.05
11.07
9.84
1.23
4.50
6.57
0.20
16.97
84.80
-0.89
83.90

65.96
1.00
5.23
59.73
62.98
8.99
7.94
1.05
4.16
4.83
0.14
-10.45
57.51
-1.04
56.47

66.63
0.89
4.80
60.94
63.61
9.03
8.52
0.51
3.64
5.39
0.17
-9.55
59.62
-1.70
57.92

67.49
1.07
5.25
61.17
64.44
9.01
8.27
0.74
4.05
4.96
0.19
2.94
72.53
-1.67
70.86

66.80
1.04
5.20
60.57
63.78
10.25
9.34
0.91
4.47
5.78
0.19
14.70
84.45
-0.44
84.01

67.19
0.82
5.19
61.18
64.15
8.62
7.88
0.74
4.13
4.48
0.16
-11.59
57.20
-0.94
56.26

67.47
0.85
4.94
61.68
64.42
8.79
8.36
0.42
3.98
4.81
0.17
-9.27
60.13
-1.22
58.91

68.00
0.97
5.05
61.99
64.93
8.62
7.91
0.71
4.29
4.32
0.19
4.22
73.65
-2.03
71.62

61.83
1.03
6.16
54.64
59.12
10.25
9.07
1.18
3.11
7.13
0.18
-0.01
66.42
-0.43
65.99

65.99
1.02
5.22
59.75
63.03
9.52
8.64
0.88
4.08
5.43
0.18
-0.08
68.56
-1.33
67.23

67.37
0.92
5.09
61.36
64.32
9.07
8.37
0.69
4.22
4.85
0.18
-0.50
68.85
-1.16
67.69

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)


Residential ...................................
26.46
Commercial .................................
14.59
Industrial ......................................
19.70
Electric Power (c) .........................
16.37
Lease and Plant Fuel ...................
3.58
Pipeline and Distribution Use .......
2.17
Vehicle Use .................................
0.09
Total Consumption ..........................
82.95

7.32
5.70
17.12
19.11
3.62
1.42
0.09
54.38

3.75
4.22
17.01
27.66
3.66
1.52
0.09
57.90

16.73
10.46
18.53
17.62
3.75
1.81
0.09
68.99

26.14
14.72
20.20
16.79
3.77
2.20
0.09
83.90

7.51
5.87
17.75
19.87
3.89
1.48
0.09
56.47

3.63
4.17
17.27
27.23
3.93
1.60
0.09
57.92

17.25
10.61
18.73
18.28
3.98
1.92
0.09
70.86

25.86
14.69
20.22
16.87
3.94
2.34
0.09
84.01

6.79
5.82
17.70
20.28
3.97
1.61
0.09
56.26

3.63
4.09
17.41
28.07
3.98
1.63
0.09
58.91

17.44
10.65
19.01
18.50
4.01
1.92
0.09
71.62

13.51
8.72
18.08
20.21
3.65
1.73
0.09
65.99

13.58
8.82
18.48
20.57
3.90
1.80
0.09
67.23

13.41
8.81
18.58
20.94
3.98
1.88
0.09
67.69

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)


Working Gas Inventory ................
1,662
Producing Region (d) ................
627
East Consuming Region (d) ......
744
West Consuming Region (d) .....
291

2,741
962
1,330
450

3,500
1,092
1,913
495

3,107
1,077
1,591
439

1,581
738
618
225

2,530
992
1,188
350

3,409
1,060
1,881
468

3,138
1,070
1,668
401

1,801
774
763
264

2,856
1,042
1,398
415

3,708
1,167
2,049
492

3,320
1,108
1,767
445

3,107
1,077
1,591
439

3,138
1,070
1,668
401

3,320
1,108
1,767
445

Supply (billion cubic feet per day)


Total Marketed Production ............
Alaska ......................................
Federal GOM (a) .......................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) .....
Total Dry Gas Production .............
Gross Imports ..............................
Pipeline ....................................
LNG ..........................................
Gross Exports ..............................
Net Imports ..................................
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ......
Net Inventory Withdrawals ...........
Total Supply ....................................
Balancing Item (b) ..........................
Total Primary Supply .......................

2010

Year
2011

1st

2012

- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

4.79
5.30

4.07
4.45

4.11
4.41

3.67
3.91

4.06
4.31

4.10
4.50

4.03
4.25

3.71
4.03

3.83
4.31

3.85
4.37

3.90
4.39

4.12
4.74

4.15
4.52

3.97
4.27

3.93
4.45

14.33
12.79
9.50
9.08
12.61
10.50
9.80
9.24
10.43
10.59

15.56
15.17
12.24
11.90
18.74
14.81
14.06
9.83
10.47
12.55

17.73
18.46
16.66
16.65
24.07
17.75
18.30
13.03
11.10
15.49

14.29
12.74
9.37
9.34
12.28
10.73
10.22
9.25
9.89
10.56

13.99
11.85
8.87
8.83
11.97
9.91
8.60
8.87
9.98
9.97

14.28
14.08
10.97
11.17
17.54
13.69
14.31
9.77
10.91
11.95

17.84
18.23
16.37
17.21
23.93
19.06
18.82
13.84
11.36
16.12

14.67
13.65
9.58
9.29
14.60
12.17
10.81
8.80
9.73
11.21

13.99
12.37
8.93
8.83
12.74
11.26
9.24
8.64
9.92
10.34

14.88
13.90
11.27
11.42
17.48
14.53
14.03
9.61
10.17
12.24

18.13
18.25
16.75
17.57
24.45
19.10
19.01
13.40
10.97
16.36

15.39
14.38
10.54
10.07
15.50
13.25
11.46
9.63
10.31
12.00

14.78
13.46
10.23
9.92
13.71
11.33
11.01
9.63
10.37
11.19

14.50
13.10
9.83
9.76
14.16
11.45
10.63
9.37
10.27
11.05

14.83
13.55
10.17
10.01
14.87
12.58
11.23
9.45
10.20
11.53

11.68
10.76
8.97
8.36
10.53
9.45
8.52
8.33
9.48
9.34

11.68
9.77
9.25
8.38
10.74
10.21
9.09
8.11
8.97
9.26

11.45
9.51
9.67
9.53
10.74
10.41
9.19
8.89
9.21
9.64

11.01
9.70
8.14
7.70
9.50
9.14
7.62
8.12
9.10
8.66

11.14
9.85
8.42
7.93
9.80
8.80
7.34
7.99
9.15
8.74

10.64
9.55
8.98
8.44
10.82
9.55
8.58
7.98
9.19
9.14

10.72
9.19
9.86
9.69
11.42
10.80
8.95
9.04
9.37
9.80

11.67
10.40
8.76
7.83
11.06
10.42
8.57
7.95
8.95
9.44

11.75
10.09
8.61
7.89
10.63
9.65
7.85
7.66
8.81
9.13

11.94
9.88
9.12
8.22
11.05
10.18
8.49
7.56
8.37
9.30

12.06
9.88
9.61
9.73
11.38
10.82
9.38
8.67
8.79
9.89

12.34
10.93
9.18
8.20
11.47
10.93
9.11
8.51
9.39
9.92

11.47
10.15
8.82
8.28
10.28
9.57
8.50
8.29
9.21
9.15

11.16
9.88
8.71
8.12
10.64
9.56
8.12
8.09
9.14
9.14

11.96
10.26
8.92
8.16
11.06
10.19
8.50
7.98
8.87
9.48

11.41
10.04
7.98
6.73
7.61
7.21
5.58
7.32
7.77
6.51

9.74
9.01
7.01
5.65
6.14
5.64
4.36
6.36
7.01
4.98

9.07
9.01
6.96
5.53
6.28
5.61
4.59
6.59
7.01
5.07

10.21
9.54
6.88
5.74
6.09
5.44
3.98
6.40
6.92
4.89

10.67
9.58
7.39
6.28
6.52
5.83
4.24
6.81
7.45
5.41

9.81
9.27
7.19
5.78
6.24
5.58
4.46
6.42
7.22
5.13

9.43
9.04
7.20
5.47
6.26
5.55
4.58
7.20
7.37
5.15

10.40
10.21
7.10
5.62
6.42
5.97
4.39
7.35
7.70
5.37

11.10
10.00
7.47
6.24
6.57
6.21
4.39
7.26
7.81
5.64

10.48
8.97
7.37
5.47
6.32
5.81
4.64
6.45
7.02
5.28

9.77
9.15
7.48
5.36
6.40
5.99
4.78
7.24
7.44
5.32

11.22
10.92
7.90
6.15
7.14
6.79
4.92
8.13
8.37
5.95

10.37
9.60
7.38
6.00
6.61
6.06
4.62
6.72
7.21
5.40

10.21
9.65
7.24
5.79
6.37
5.75
4.42
6.94
7.45
5.27

10.80
9.95
7.58
5.87
6.63
6.23
4.69
7.31
7.71
5.56

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Supply (million short tons)


Production ........................................
Appalachia ....................................
Interior ..........................................
Western ........................................
Primary Inventory Withdrawals ..........
Imports ............................................
Exports ............................................
Metallurgical Coal ..........................
Steam Coal ...................................
Total Primary Supply ...........................

265.3
84.4
37.7
143.3
-2.4
4.8
17.8
14.2
3.6
249.9

265.1
84.4
37.8
142.8
1.5
5.1
22.0
15.6
6.4
249.7

278.2
83.5
41.4
153.3
6.2
4.7
21.1
13.0
8.0
268.0

276.6
83.8
40.7
152.1
0.3
4.8
20.9
13.3
7.6
260.8

273.6
87.3
41.5
144.8
4.8
3.4
26.6
17.2
9.5
255.2

258.1
84.2
38.3
135.7
-1.7
3.4
27.0
17.8
9.1
232.8

267.0
81.4
38.5
147.1
1.0
3.9
22.8
14.8
8.1
249.0

269.8
85.6
40.0
144.2
1.2
4.5
22.1
15.0
7.1
253.4

272.4
81.4
38.7
152.3
-4.6
4.4
19.5
15.2
4.3
252.7

250.7
77.2
35.9
137.7
0.5
4.4
22.9
15.7
7.2
232.6

256.7
79.1
34.8
142.8
3.8
5.2
22.2
13.9
8.4
243.4

265.3
82.0
36.5
146.8
-0.2
4.8
21.4
14.2
7.2
248.4

1085.3
336.1
157.6
591.6
5.6
19.4
81.7
56.1
25.6
1028.5

1068.6
338.5
158.3
571.8
5.2
15.1
98.5
64.8
33.7
990.5

1045.1
319.7
145.8
579.6
-0.5
18.7
86.0
59.0
27.1
977.2

Secondary Inventory Withdrawals .....


Waste Coal (a) .................................
Total Supply ........................................

13.1
3.1
266.1

-3.8
3.3
249.1

18.1
3.2
289.4

-12.5
3.2
251.6

7.2
3.2
265.6

2.3
3.2
238.3

20.6
3.2
272.8

-4.4
3.2
252.1

7.9
3.2
263.8

-9.8
3.2
226.0

12.7
3.2
259.4

-3.7
3.2
247.9

14.9
12.7
1056.1

25.7
12.7
1028.9

7.1
12.8
997.1

Consumption (million short tons)


Coke Plants .....................................
Electric Power Sector (b) ..................
Retail and Other Industry ..................
Residential and Commercial ..........
Other Industrial .............................
Total Consumption .............................

4.9
246.3
13.4
1.0
12.4
264.6

5.4
229.8
12.3
0.6
11.7
247.4

5.5
267.9
12.8
0.6
12.1
286.1

5.4
231.6
13.2
0.8
12.4
250.1

5.2
235.1
14.4
1.0
13.3
254.7

5.7
223.7
12.4
0.6
11.8
241.8

6.7
265.1
12.3
0.6
11.7
284.1

6.4
233.0
12.7
0.8
11.9
252.1

6.4
244.1
13.4
1.1
12.3
263.8

6.0
207.1
12.9
0.8
12.1
226.0

6.7
240.1
12.6
0.8
11.7
259.4

6.4
228.4
13.2
1.2
12.0
247.9

21.1
975.6
51.6
3.1
48.5
1048.3

24.0
957.0
51.7
3.0
48.7
1032.7

25.5
919.6
52.1
3.9
48.1
997.1

1.5

1.7

3.2

1.4

11.0

-3.5

-11.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

7.8

-3.8

0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)


Primary Inventories (d) ......................
50.2
Secondary Inventories ......................
184.0
Electric Power Sector ....................
177.8
Retail and General Industry ...........
4.2
Coke Plants ..................................
1.6

48.7
187.8
181.1
4.3
2.0

42.4
169.7
162.8
4.5
1.9

42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9

37.3
174.9
167.0
5.5
2.0

39.1
172.6
166.0
4.1
2.1

38.1
152.0
144.8
4.6
2.0

36.9
156.5
148.9
4.9
2.1

41.5
148.6
142.0
4.2
1.8

41.0
158.4
151.1
4.5
2.2

37.2
145.7
137.8
5.1
2.2

37.4
149.4
141.2
5.4
2.2

42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9

36.9
156.5
148.9
4.9
2.1

37.4
149.4
141.2
5.4
2.2

5.58

5.58

5.59

5.60

5.57

5.57

5.57

5.57

5.70

5.70

5.70

5.70

5.59

5.57

5.70

0.234

0.253

0.245

0.237

0.257

0.261

0.266

0.254

0.267

0.279

0.268

0.259

0.242

0.260

0.268

2.26

2.26

2.28

2.25

2.35

2.41

2.42

2.36

2.43

2.41

2.37

2.33

2.26

2.39

2.39

Discrepancy (c)

Coal Market Indicators


Coal Miner Productivity
(Tons per hour) .............................
Total Raw Steel Production
(Million short tons per day) ............
Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities
(Dollars per million Btu) .................

- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
2nd
Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day)
Electricity Generation ....................
11.01
10.90
Electric Power Sector (a) ............
10.61
10.50
Industrial Sector .........................
0.38
0.38
Commercial Sector .....................
0.02
0.02
Net Imports .................................
0.12
0.07
Total Supply ..................................
11.13
10.97
Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ...
0.52
0.95
Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours per day)
Retail Sales ..................................
10.25
9.66
Residential Sector ......................
4.26
3.41
Commercial Sector .....................
3.45
3.57
Industrial Sector .........................
2.51
2.66
Transportation Sector .................
0.02
0.02
Direct Use (c) ................................
0.37
0.36
Total Consumption .......................
10.61
10.02
Prices
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ...........................................
2.26
2.26
Natural Gas ...............................
6.06
4.89
Residual Fuel Oil ........................
12.10
12.36
Distillate Fuel Oil ........................
15.84
16.48
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector ......................
10.88
11.90
Commercial Sector .....................
9.87
10.30
Industrial Sector .........................
6.53
6.75

2011
3rd

4th

1st

12.65
12.22
0.40
0.02
0.06
12.71
0.70

10.58
10.19
0.37
0.02
0.04
10.62
0.70

11.04
10.65
0.37
0.02
0.08
11.12
0.52

11.62
4.74
4.09
2.76
0.02
0.39
12.01

9.56
3.48
3.45
2.61
0.02
0.36
9.92

2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18
12.02
10.71
7.17

2nd

2012
2010

Year
2011

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2012

10.92
10.53
0.37
0.02
0.10
11.02
0.88

12.80
12.39
0.39
0.02
0.14
12.94
0.97

10.67
10.28
0.37
0.02
0.09
10.76
0.73

11.16
10.74
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.24
0.59

10.91
10.51
0.38
0.02
0.08
10.99
0.89

12.31
11.87
0.41
0.02
0.11
12.41
0.77

10.81
10.40
0.39
0.02
0.07
10.88
0.75

11.29
10.88
0.38
0.02
0.07
11.36
0.72

11.36
10.97
0.37
0.02
0.10
11.46
0.78

11.30
10.88
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.38
0.75

10.25
4.15
3.45
2.62
0.02
0.35
10.60

9.79
3.51
3.58
2.68
0.02
0.35
10.14

11.59
4.73
4.07
2.78
0.02
0.37
11.96

9.68
3.52
3.53
2.61
0.02
0.35
10.03

10.28
4.20
3.46
2.60
0.02
0.37
10.65

9.74
3.43
3.59
2.70
0.02
0.37
10.11

11.25
4.39
4.02
2.81
0.02
0.40
11.64

9.77
3.57
3.52
2.66
0.02
0.37
10.14

10.27
3.97
3.64
2.64
0.02
0.37
10.64

10.33
3.98
3.66
2.67
0.02
0.36
10.69

10.26
3.90
3.65
2.69
0.02
0.38
10.64

2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94

2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99

2.41
4.94
18.32
23.55

2.42
4.91
18.33
23.49

2.36
4.78
17.81
22.89

2.43
5.01
18.19
22.90

2.41
4.95
18.38
22.82

2.37
4.94
18.32
22.80

2.33
5.25
18.28
23.17

2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60

2.39
4.92
17.67
22.72

2.39
5.03
18.30
22.93

11.50
10.06
6.67

11.24
10.01
6.68

11.97
10.38
6.85

12.23
10.79
7.29

11.70
10.18
6.79

11.21
10.03
6.62

12.15
10.47
6.86

12.46
10.99
7.28

11.82
10.32
6.78

11.58
10.26
6.79

11.80
10.36
6.91

11.91
10.47
6.89

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

141
394
579
337
1,129
405
595
243
424
15
4,261

114
326
456
250
878
291
514
227
346
13
3,414

150
444
639
350
1,232
428
771
325
391
13
4,742

122
335
481
261
891
294
467
225
390
15
3,482

145
405
577
331
1,042
373
574
248
441
15
4,152

116
329
456
249
910
296
562
227
353
13
3,511

147
420
615
348
1,187
406
857
327
408
13
4,729

126
346
484
268
881
286
477
232
402
15
3,517

149
417
584
334
1,070
373
554
253
447
15
4,196

119
334
456
252
865
285
510
236
358
13
3,428

144
407
569
325
1,109
385
712
321
407
13
4,393

128
350
490
274
887
296
486
238
405
15
3,569

132
375
539
300
1,032
354
587
255
388
14
3,975

134
375
533
299
1,005
340
618
258
401
14
3,977

135
377
525
296
983
335
566
262
404
14
3,897

123
443
490
266
792
220
442
234
420
17
3,447

120
434
491
267
852
228
479
251
432
16
3,571

137
506
555
302
965
271
578
285
478
17
4,092

119
425
481
261
804
213
450
241
442
17
3,453

123
435
497
268
789
216
447
237
425
18
3,454

119
421
486
262
860
226
503
250
432
17
3,575

135
494
555
300
957
265
582
286
478
17
4,068

123
434
489
267
824
213
461
247
451
17
3,527

126
443
496
264
792
213
448
236
426
17
3,461

121
430
494
266
858
225
493
254
432
17
3,590

133
488
545
297
966
260
550
287
479
17
4,022

120
428
484
263
832
211
468
248
447
18
3,520

125
452
504
274
853
233
487
253
443
17
3,642

125
446
507
274
858
230
498
255
447
17
3,657

125
447
505
272
863
228
490
256
446
17
3,649

76
178
523
222
360
336
397
195
214
13
2,514

77
186
544
235
397
334
432
209
228
14
2,655

83
192
551
245
406
334
464
232
245
14
2,765

76
181
534
233
379
334
421
207
229
14
2,607

75
195
539
233
377
343
420
204
221
14
2,620

76
193
541
236
399
327
445
217
234
13
2,682

81
192
554
250
404
337
461
238
245
14
2,776

75
182
528
233
373
345
423
211
229
13
2,613

75
190
531
234
368
347
420
206
217
13
2,601

76
195
544
243
401
337
446
218
229
14
2,702

81
194
555
253
412
345
469
241
247
14
2,810

74
185
535
241
382
351
429
213
230
14
2,655

78
184
538
234
385
334
429
211
229
14
2,636

77
190
541
238
388
338
437
217
232
14
2,673

76
191
541
243
391
345
441
219
231
14
2,692

342
1,027
1,594
825
2,286
960
1,433
672
1,061
45
10,246

312
957
1,492
752
2,130
854
1,425
687
1,008
43
9,660

371
1,152
1,746
897
2,606
1,032
1,813
842
1,117
44
11,620

318
952
1,498
755
2,078
842
1,338
673
1,063
45
9,562

345
1,047
1,614
832
2,211
932
1,441
688
1,089
46
10,247

312
955
1,485
747
2,173
849
1,510
693
1,022
43
9,789

365
1,117
1,727
898
2,552
1,008
1,900
851
1,133
44
11,594

325
973
1,503
768
2,082
844
1,362
689
1,086
45
9,678

351
1,062
1,613
833
2,234
933
1,422
694
1,093
46
10,280

317
970
1,495
761
2,127
847
1,449
709
1,021
43
9,741

360
1,102
1,670
875
2,491
990
1,731
848
1,136
45
11,248

324
976
1,511
778
2,105
858
1,384
700
1,084
46
9,766

336
1,022
1,583
808
2,275
922
1,503
719
1,063
45
10,274

337
1,023
1,582
812
2,255
908
1,554
731
1,083
45
10,329

338
1,028
1,572
812
2,240
907
1,497
738
1,084
45
10,260

- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour)


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

16.56
14.82
10.50
8.33
10.46
8.81
10.28
9.71
12.03
10.88

16.60
16.16
11.88
10.08
11.31
9.90
11.00
10.83
12.47
11.90

16.46
16.65
11.82
10.61
11.42
10.02
10.79
11.22
13.37
12.02

16.43
15.39
11.38
9.45
10.94
10.05
10.46
9.97
12.20
11.50

15.99
15.20
11.01
9.06
10.86
9.77
10.08
9.76
12.02
11.24

16.13
15.99
12.04
10.54
11.47
10.32
10.78
10.84
12.49
11.97

16.80
16.53
12.15
10.90
11.71
10.36
10.80
11.28
14.02
12.23

16.75
15.11
11.61
9.52
11.29
10.28
10.40
10.27
12.43
11.70

16.55
14.84
11.00
8.95
10.72
9.54
10.19
9.94
12.05
11.21

16.76
16.17
12.22
10.49
11.51
10.44
10.88
11.06
12.79
12.15

16.70
17.12
12.26
10.96
11.84
10.46
10.95
11.49
14.15
12.46

16.61
15.56
11.71
9.64
11.38
10.31
10.45
10.47
12.51
11.82

16.51
15.79
11.39
9.61
11.03
9.66
10.64
10.50
12.51
11.58

16.43
15.73
11.70
10.01
11.34
10.18
10.55
10.59
12.74
11.80

16.65
15.92
11.78
9.99
11.36
10.17
10.64
10.79
12.86
11.91

15.27
13.23
9.17
7.08
9.13
8.86
8.95
8.20
10.78
9.87

14.71
13.93
9.51
7.93
9.33
9.33
8.80
9.04
12.20
10.30

15.33
14.60
9.59
8.60
9.42
9.54
8.74
9.25
14.05
10.71

14.46
13.43
9.28
7.58
9.35
9.75
8.53
8.40
11.40
10.06

14.41
13.23
9.29
7.60
9.45
9.67
8.57
8.32
10.97
10.01

14.40
13.61
9.66
8.46
9.53
9.83
8.66
9.04
12.32
10.38

14.75
14.42
9.58
8.77
9.70
9.88
8.87
9.34
13.97
10.79

14.27
12.93
9.33
7.62
9.64
9.90
8.57
8.74
11.82
10.18

14.83
12.98
9.20
7.52
9.44
9.47
8.64
8.49
11.23
10.03

14.80
13.79
9.53
8.35
9.60
9.78
8.70
9.18
12.68
10.47

15.12
14.91
9.68
8.92
9.85
9.91
8.86
9.42
14.32
10.99

14.54
13.38
9.41
7.76
9.77
9.89
8.51
8.84
12.06
10.32

14.96
13.83
9.40
7.83
9.31
9.38
8.75
8.76
12.17
10.26

14.47
13.58
9.47
8.13
9.59
9.83
8.68
8.89
12.32
10.36

14.83
13.80
9.46
8.16
9.68
9.77
8.68
9.01
12.62
10.47

12.33
8.50
6.34
5.43
6.45
5.31
6.08
5.69
7.29
6.53

12.91
8.52
6.48
5.74
6.53
5.85
6.00
6.17
7.84
6.75

12.78
8.71
6.71
6.45
7.00
6.33
6.14
6.87
8.73
7.17

12.62
8.30
6.52
5.67
6.54
5.97
5.80
5.65
7.68
6.67

12.68
8.62
6.41
5.75
6.53
5.85
5.77
5.60
7.43
6.68

12.63
8.41
6.51
6.11
6.74
6.19
6.00
6.07
7.73
6.85

12.85
8.50
6.81
6.58
7.16
6.62
6.35
6.81
8.70
7.29

12.64
8.16
6.54
5.76
6.75
6.07
6.01
5.86
7.84
6.79

12.75
8.24
6.40
5.62
6.42
5.66
6.04
5.90
7.42
6.62

12.61
8.43
6.58
6.01
6.59
6.11
6.04
6.30
7.94
6.86

12.82
8.66
6.82
6.61
7.07
6.52
6.14
6.97
8.85
7.28

12.64
8.19
6.52
5.76
6.71
6.08
5.83
6.03
8.00
6.78

12.66
8.51
6.51
5.84
6.64
5.87
6.01
6.13
7.91
6.79

12.70
8.43
6.57
6.06
6.80
6.18
6.04
6.11
7.94
6.91

12.71
8.38
6.58
6.01
6.71
6.09
6.01
6.33
8.08
6.89

15.12
13.01
8.72
7.14
9.37
7.60
8.71
8.02
10.57
9.47

14.92
13.63
9.13
7.96
9.63
8.16
8.74
8.76
11.30
9.89

15.19
14.40
9.50
8.80
9.99
8.70
8.95
9.35
12.64
10.40

14.74
13.13
8.97
7.64
9.52
8.36
8.35
8.08
10.89
9.66

14.66
13.13
8.94
7.66
9.62
8.30
8.35
8.03
10.76
9.66

14.58
13.37
9.24
8.41
9.83
8.59
8.66
8.70
11.32
9.99

15.12
14.18
9.61
8.99
10.23
8.99
9.13
9.38
12.83
10.54

14.82
12.80
9.08
7.72
9.82
8.46
8.41
8.38
11.20
9.82

15.09
12.84
8.93
7.56
9.56
8.08
8.48
8.25
10.80
9.65

14.98
13.50
9.27
8.31
9.81
8.54
8.64
8.92
11.64
10.06

15.21
14.59
9.61
9.01
10.28
8.94
8.98
9.51
13.05
10.63

14.89
13.15
9.13
7.80
9.90
8.48
8.36
8.54
11.36
9.90

15.00
13.58
9.09
7.91
9.64
8.21
8.71
8.60
11.37
9.88

14.81
13.40
9.23
8.22
9.89
8.60
8.68
8.67
11.55
10.02

15.05
13.54
9.24
8.19
9.90
8.52
8.64
8.84
11.73
10.08

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables (d) ............................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................

2011
2nd

2012
3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

5.103
2.083
0.009
0.077
0.021
0.015
0.036
0.005
2.230
-0.016

4.313
2.466
0.009
0.081
0.028
0.015
0.035
0.003
2.181
-0.015

4.908
3.426
0.009
0.087
0.033
0.014
0.037
0.003
2.321
-0.020

4.705
2.293
0.009
0.077
0.023
0.016
0.034
0.003
2.152
-0.016

5.017
2.461
0.008
0.094
0.039
0.020
0.033
0.002
2.211
-0.011

4.934
2.497
0.008
0.080
0.028
0.016
0.035
0.002
2.137
-0.016

4.757
2.569
0.009
0.080
0.026
0.015
0.036
0.003
2.221
-0.017

0.643
0.044
0.002
0.329
0.030
0.043
0.019
10.280

0.754
0.045
0.004
0.360
0.031
0.045
0.020
10.744

0.913
0.044
0.011
0.410
0.028
0.048
0.021
10.509

0.667
0.046
0.012
0.310
0.034
0.050
0.021
11.871

0.643
0.046
0.004
0.387
0.033
0.048
0.020
10.401

0.700
0.043
0.004
0.259
0.032
0.044
0.019
10.880

0.856
0.045
0.005
0.327
0.030
0.044
0.019
10.965

0.744
0.045
0.008
0.366
0.032
0.048
0.020
10.883

0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.021

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.024

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.047
0.212
0.022
0.005

0.051
0.217
0.025
0.005

0.048
0.210
0.022
0.005

0.050
0.223
0.023
0.006

0.050
0.216
0.023
0.005

0.054
0.232
0.028
0.006

0.051
0.218
0.024
0.006

0.051
0.216
0.023
0.006

0.049
0.212
0.023
0.005

0.051
0.223
0.025
0.006

0.006
0.068
0.002
0.009
0.371
10.921

0.003
0.073
0.002
0.010
0.385
12.799

0.004
0.071
0.002
0.009
0.371
10.673

0.006
0.071
0.002
0.009
0.390
11.156

0.006
0.070
0.002
0.010
0.383
10.914

0.003
0.078
0.002
0.011
0.414
12.309

0.004
0.074
0.002
0.010
0.389
10.812

0.004
0.072
0.002
0.010
0.385
11.288

0.005
0.070
0.002
0.009
0.374
11.361

0.005
0.073
0.002
0.010
0.394
11.299

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5.181
2.011
0.009
0.094
0.034
0.023
0.034
0.003
2.249
-0.008

4.750
2.306
0.009
0.095
0.042
0.016
0.034
0.002
2.116
-0.008

5.450
3.329
0.008
0.111
0.054
0.019
0.035
0.002
2.314
-0.015

4.688
2.188
0.006
0.078
0.027
0.020
0.028
0.003
2.164
-0.014

4.887
2.059
0.008
0.082
0.025
0.017
0.037
0.003
2.258
-0.011

4.570
2.378
0.008
0.070
0.024
0.018
0.026
0.002
1.943
-0.016

5.516
3.290
0.009
0.093
0.041
0.016
0.039
0.003
2.255
-0.021

4.760
2.248
0.008
0.074
0.022
0.014
0.035
0.003
2.093
-0.016

0.697
0.044
0.001
0.235
0.032
0.042
0.017
10.605

0.797
0.043
0.005
0.291
0.029
0.045
0.020
10.497

0.658
0.042
0.005
0.221
0.034
0.044
0.020
12.221

0.647
0.043
0.002
0.290
0.030
0.045
0.019
10.187

0.900
0.046
0.003
0.329
0.030
0.042
0.017
10.650

1.051
0.044
0.007
0.382
0.026
0.046
0.019
10.529

0.832
0.044
0.007
0.269
0.032
0.045
0.019
12.390

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.014
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.025

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022

0.002
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.021

0.052
0.216
0.022
0.007

0.047
0.211
0.023
0.007

0.055
0.228
0.024
0.007

0.048
0.211
0.022
0.006

0.049
0.209
0.022
0.006

0.006
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.384
11.011

0.005
0.072
0.002
0.010
0.377
10.897

0.003
0.075
0.002
0.011
0.404
12.650

0.004
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.374
10.583

0.005
0.067
0.002
0.008
0.368
11.039

1st

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7e. U.S. Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation by Sector


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Petroleum Coke (mmst/d) ......
Other Petroleum (mmb/d) ......
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Total All Sectors
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

2.72
15.48
0.17
0.06
0.04
0.07
0.01

2.51
18.25
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.90
26.72
0.20
0.09
0.04
0.07
0.00

2.51
16.78
0.14
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.01

2.60
15.83
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.45
19.00
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.05
0.00

2.87
26.27
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.52
17.24
0.13
0.03
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.67
15.79
0.14
0.03
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.27
19.27
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.60
26.95
0.16
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.47
17.41
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.66
19.33
0.17
0.07
0.04
0.06
0.00

2.61
19.61
0.14
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.50
19.87
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.44
0.01

0.02
1.57
0.01

0.02
1.44
0.01

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.51
0.01

0.02
1.43
0.01

0.02
1.55
0.01

0.02
1.49
0.01

0.02
1.61
0.01

0.02
1.49
0.01

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.47
0.01

0.02
1.53
0.01

2.75
17.05
0.18

2.53
19.79
0.18

2.93
28.40
0.21

2.53
18.32
0.15

2.62
17.40
0.16

2.47
20.56
0.13

2.89
27.88
0.17

2.54
18.76
0.14

2.69
17.43
0.15

2.29
20.85
0.15

2.62
28.66
0.16

2.49
19.00
0.15

2.68
20.91
0.18

2.63
21.17
0.15

2.52
21.50
0.15

End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector


Coal (mmst) ..............................
177.8
181.1
162.8
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
18.7
17.4
17.4
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
17.3
17.2
17.0
Petroleum Coke (mmb) .............
5.8
5.5
6.1

175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4

167.0
15.6
16.8
2.8

166.0
16.5
17.1
2.8

144.8
15.1
16.7
3.0

148.9
13.4
17.0
2.9

142.0
13.5
16.5
3.0

151.1
15.3
16.5
3.0

137.8
14.9
16.7
3.1

141.2
14.2
16.9
3.1

175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4

148.9
13.4
17.0
2.9

141.2
14.2
16.9
3.1

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Supply and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
Supply
Hydroelectric Power (a) ...............
Geothermal .................................
Solar .............................................
Wind .............................................
Wood ............................................
Ethanol (b) .....................................
Biodiesel (b) ..................................
Other Renewables (c) ...................
Total ..........................................
Consumption
Electric Power Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Solar ..........................................
Wind ..........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables (c) ................
Subtotal ..................................
Industrial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables (c) ................
Subtotal ..................................
Commercial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables (c) ................
Subtotal ..................................
Residential Sector
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Solar ..........................................
Subtotal ..................................
Transportation Sector
Ethanol (b) ..................................
Biodiesel (b) ...............................
Total Consumption ........................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

0.618
0.053
0.025
0.208
0.490
0.270
0.011
0.110
1.786

0.713
0.053
0.029
0.261
0.491
0.275
0.012
0.115
1.949

0.593
0.053
0.029
0.200
0.508
0.284
0.010
0.114
1.792

0.585
0.054
0.026
0.263
0.497
0.298
0.007
0.115
1.844

0.795
0.055
0.026
0.292
0.478
0.293
0.014
0.111
2.065

0.939
0.054
0.030
0.342
0.470
0.290
0.024
0.115
2.264

0.757
0.100
0.031
0.244
0.506
0.290
0.035
0.118
2.087

0.587
0.101
0.026
0.298
0.495
0.293
0.037
0.113
1.950

0.681
0.102
0.027
0.323
0.493
0.294
0.032
0.113
2.065

0.825
0.100
0.034
0.367
0.482
0.295
0.029
0.120
2.252

0.608
0.103
0.035
0.281
0.533
0.299
0.029
0.128
2.016

0.587
0.104
0.028
0.350
0.516
0.299
0.029
0.121
2.033

2.509
0.212
0.109
0.933
1.986
1.128
0.039
0.454
7.371

3.078
0.310
0.114
1.176
1.949
1.165
0.110
0.456
8.366

2.701
0.408
0.124
1.322
2.024
1.187
0.120
0.481
8.366

0.618
0.038
0.001
0.208
0.048
0.060
0.975

0.715
0.038
0.005
0.261
0.044
0.064
1.127

0.596
0.038
0.005
0.200
0.049
0.063
0.952

0.587
0.039
0.002
0.263
0.046
0.064
1.001

0.798
0.041
0.003
0.292
0.045
0.061
1.239

0.942
0.039
0.006
0.342
0.038
0.065
1.434

0.754
0.085
0.007
0.244
0.048
0.066
1.204

0.583
0.086
0.002
0.298
0.045
0.063
1.078

0.676
0.087
0.003
0.323
0.047
0.064
1.200

0.819
0.085
0.010
0.367
0.041
0.068
1.391

0.605
0.088
0.011
0.281
0.051
0.072
1.108

0.583
0.089
0.004
0.350
0.050
0.069
1.145

2.516
0.153
0.013
0.933
0.189
0.252
4.055

3.077
0.251
0.017
1.176
0.177
0.255
4.954

2.683
0.349
0.028
1.322
0.190
0.274
4.844

0.005
0.001
0.321
0.041
0.372

0.005
0.001
0.324
0.042
0.376

0.003
0.001
0.335
0.042
0.385

0.003
0.001
0.326
0.042
0.378

0.005
0.001
0.312
0.041
0.363

0.005
0.001
0.309
0.041
0.361

0.003
0.001
0.335
0.044
0.386

0.003
0.001
0.328
0.042
0.379

0.005
0.001
0.323
0.041
0.374

0.006
0.001
0.319
0.043
0.372

0.003
0.001
0.359
0.047
0.414

0.004
0.001
0.343
0.044
0.396

0.016
0.004
1.307
0.168
1.511

0.016
0.004
1.284
0.169
1.489

0.017
0.004
1.344
0.174
1.556

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.033

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.033

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.001
0.019
0.070
0.034
0.127

0.001
0.018
0.070
0.033
0.126

0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.128

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140

0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.037
0.420
0.097
0.554

0.037
0.417
0.096
0.550

0.037
0.418
0.096
0.551

0.251
0.009

0.275
0.011

0.280
0.010

0.284
0.008

0.263
0.015

0.277
0.028

0.276
0.033

0.281
0.035

0.275
0.032

0.286
0.029

0.284
0.029

0.287
0.029

1.091
0.039

1.097
0.112

1.132
0.119

1.765

1.948

1.788

1.831

2.036

2.256

2.067

1.937

2.045

2.243

2.001

2.021

7.332

8.295

8.311

- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports
less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential s
(c) Other renewable energy sources include municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010

2011

2012
2010

Year
2011

2012

13,628

13,088

13,284

13,521

10,403

10,427

10,062

10,217

10,381

1,813

1,832

1,858

1,648

1,744

1,825

6.52

8.85

8.80

8.96

20.26

20.76

8.28

123.5

123.5

123.5

123.6

123.6

123.5

123.5

123.6

131.2

131.3

131.6

132.1

132.5

132.9

129.8

131.0

132.3

89.1

89.3

89.6

90.1

90.6

91.1

91.5

87.8

89.1

90.8

92.8
90.6
103.1
89.7

93.0
90.9
102.9
88.0

93.9
91.6
103.0
88.0

94.0
92.1
103.1
87.9

94.4
92.7
103.3
87.9

94.9
93.5
103.6
88.0

95.5
94.3
104.1
88.3

96.1
95.2
104.5
88.7

90.1
87.3
102.3
89.0

93.4
91.3
103.0
88.4

95.2
93.9
103.9
88.2

87.0
98.0
69.1
85.3
79.1
92.5
87.5

88.6
96.2
67.5
90.4
78.8
99.9
89.0

88.8
96.9
69.6
90.7
74.2
99.4
88.4

88.2
98.1
69.8
92.2
73.6
98.7
88.7

88.1
98.4
69.6
92.7
73.6
97.8
88.7

88.3
98.6
69.8
92.8
73.6
97.3
88.7

88.6
98.8
70.1
93.2
73.8
97.3
88.9

89.1
99.0
70.8
94.0
74.3
97.7
89.4

89.6
99.1
71.5
94.5
74.7
97.8
89.7

86.7
96.5
67.6
83.3
77.0
94.0
86.5

88.4
97.4
69.1
91.5
75.0
99.0
88.7

88.9
98.9
70.5
93.6
74.1
97.5
89.2

2.18

2.19

2.22

2.25

2.26

2.27

2.28

2.28

2.29

2.30

2.18

2.25

2.29

1.83

1.82

1.90

1.99

2.02

2.02

2.02

2.01

2.00

2.01

2.04

1.85

2.01

2.01

2.17

2.26

2.20

2.38

2.74

3.22

3.06

2.84

2.87

2.90

2.87

2.82

2.25

2.96

2.87

110.4

110.8

111.2

111.7

112.4

113.1

113.7

114.2

114.4

114.5

114.9

115.4

111.0

113.3

114.8

7,663

8,555

8,523

8,127

7,657

8,400

8,374

8,034

7,710

8,444

8,470

8,080

8,219

8,118

8,177

491

530

546

526

519

549

542

520

516

558

554

530

523

533

540

293

330

341

323

307

339

343

311

297

351

346

315

322

325

327

266.4

282.0

282.2

282.2

298.2

308.1

308.3

309.6

310.1

316.7

311.2

296.7

278.2

306.1

308.7

0.234

0.253

0.245

0.237

0.257

0.261

0.266

0.254

0.267

0.279

0.268

0.259

0.242

0.260

0.268

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Emissions (million metric tons)


Petroleum ......................................................
569
588
Natural Gas ...................................................
401
263
Coal ...............................................................
502
471
Total Fossil Fuels ..........................................
1,472
1,322

599
283
543
1,425

593
338
474
1,405

575
403
483
1,461

573
273
459
1,305

589
291
530
1,410

584
348
478
1,410

576
408
500
1,484

576
273
430
1,279

587
289
492
1,368

587
351
471
1,409

2,349
1,285
1,990
5,624

2,321
1,315
1,950
5,586

2,326
1,320
1,894
5,540

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .......

12,938

13,059

13,140

13,216

13,228

13,261

13,301

13,347

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 Dollars - SAAR) .......

9,923

10,058

10,114

10,152

10,183

10,208

10,213

1,582

1,654

1,664

1,694

1,699

1,735

12.38

4.84

24.17

39.65

33.28

123.5

123.6

123.6

123.5

129.3

130.0

129.9

87.3

87.6

1st

2nd

3rd

13,415

13,488

13,553

10,264

10,315

10,380

1,758

1,783

1,795

23.56

14.83

11.36

123.5

123.5

123.5

130.1

130.5

131.0

87.9

88.2

88.6

89.5
86.9
101.4
89.5

91.0
88.1
103.3
88.8

91.7
89.0
103.9
89.1

85.5

86.3
96.9
68.0
84.1
74.7
93.2
86.2

86.5
98.0
68.8
82.1
78.1
89.5
86.6

2.18

2.17

1.85

4th

Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product

Real Fixed Investment


(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Business Inventory Change
(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Housing Stock
(millions) ......................................................
Non-Farm Employment
(millions) .....................................................
Commercial Employment
(millions) .....................................................

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2007=100)


Total Industrial Production ............................
88.0
Manufacturing ................................................
85.0
Food .............................................................
100.6
Paper ............................................................
88.7
Chemicals .....................................................
86.9
Petroleum ......................................................
92.9
Stone, Clay, Glass .......................................
64.6
Primary Metals ..............................................
81.7
Resins and Synthetic Products .....................
76.0
Agricultural Chemicals ..................................
100.9
Natural Gas-weighted (a) .............................
Price Indexes
Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)
(index, 1982-1984=1.00) .............................
Producer Price Index: All Commodities
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
Producer Price Index: Petroleum
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(index, 2005=100) .......................................
Miscellaneous
Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)
(million miles/day) .......................................
Air Travel Capacity
(Available ton-miles/day, thousands) .........
Aircraft Utilization
(Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) ..........
Airline Ticket Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=100) ..............................
Raw Steel Production
(million short tons per day) .........................

- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2010
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Real Gross State Product (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
708
715
720
724
Middle Atlantic .............
1,913
1,929
1,937
1,948
E. N. Central ...............
1,797
1,814
1,822
1,828
W. N. Central ..............
850
858
864
869
S. Atlantic ....................
2,371
2,392
2,407
2,420
E. S. Central ................
608
613
616
619
W. S. Central ..............
1,490
1,508
1,522
1,535
Mountain .....................
864
872
878
884
Pacific .........................
2,314
2,335
2,350
2,367
Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2007=100)
New England ...............
87.2
89.1
90.4
91.4
Middle Atlantic .............
85.3
87.0
88.1
89.0
E. N. Central ...............
81.4
83.9
85.2
85.7
W. N. Central ..............
87.7
90.0
91.5
92.3
S. Atlantic ....................
82.2
83.6
84.5
84.9
E. S. Central ................
82.1
84.0
85.1
85.6
W. S. Central ..............
88.2
90.7
92.6
93.8
Mountain .....................
83.9
85.8
87.0
88.1
Pacific .........................
86.8
88.0
88.7
89.7
Real Personal Income (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
620
633
636
638
Middle Atlantic .............
1,668
1,699
1,706
1,714
E. N. Central ...............
1,544
1,569
1,583
1,587
W. N. Central ..............
707
715
724
730
S. Atlantic ....................
2,057
2,084
2,101
2,110
E. S. Central ................
543
552
557
559
W. S. Central ..............
1,218
1,236
1,250
1,261
Mountain .....................
710
718
724
728
Pacific .........................
1,873
1,893
1,906
1,918
Households (Thousands)
New England ...............
5,498
5,498
5,498
5,498
Middle Atlantic .............
15,217
15,210
15,224
15,231
E. N. Central ...............
17,732
17,725
17,710
17,697
W. N. Central ..............
8,065
8,068
8,077
8,085
S. Atlantic ....................
22,256
22,294
22,315
22,342
E. S. Central ................
7,100
7,107
7,113
7,117
W. S. Central ..............
12,841
12,871
12,896
12,921
Mountain .....................
7,926
7,942
7,961
7,980
Pacific .........................
16,950
16,969
16,997
17,033
Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)
New England ...............
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.8
Middle Atlantic .............
17.9
18.0
17.9
17.9
E. N. Central ...............
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
W. N. Central ..............
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
S. Atlantic ....................
24.6
24.8
24.8
24.8
E. S. Central ................
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
W. S. Central ..............
14.8
14.9
14.9
15.0
Mountain .....................
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
Pacific .........................
19.1
19.2
19.1
19.2

2011
1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

723
1,949
1,828
868
2,423
619
1,539
885
2,370

725
1,953
1,829
870
2,431
620
1,545
887
2,376

726
1,958
1,832
872
2,440
622
1,552
890
2,384

728
1,965
1,839
874
2,449
624
1,559
893
2,392

731
1,973
1,849
879
2,463
628
1,570
898
2,402

734
1,982
1,858
883
2,478
632
1,581
903
2,414

737
1,990
1,865
887
2,492
635
1,590
908
2,426

740
1,999
1,871
891
2,508
639
1,601
913
2,443

717
1,932
1,815
860
2,397
614
1,514
874
2,341

726
1,956
1,832
871
2,436
622
1,549
888
2,380

735
1,986
1,860
885
2,485
633
1,586
905
2,421

93.0
90.6
87.4
94.1
86.3
87.2
95.5
90.1
91.6

93.1
90.8
87.6
94.4
86.5
87.7
95.9
90.4
92.0

93.6
91.3
88.0
94.9
86.9
88.5
96.7
91.2
92.8

94.0
91.6
88.4
95.3
87.3
89.3
97.4
91.8
93.5

94.4
92.0
88.9
96.0
87.8
90.2
98.2
92.5
94.2

94.7
92.6
89.8
96.9
88.5
91.4
99.1
93.1
94.7

95.3
93.3
90.8
97.8
89.3
92.6
100.1
93.9
95.4

95.8
94.0
91.7
98.9
90.1
93.8
101.1
94.6
96.1

89.5
87.4
84.0
90.4
83.8
84.2
91.3
86.2
88.3

93.4
91.1
87.8
94.7
86.8
88.2
96.4
90.9
92.5

95.1
93.0
90.3
97.4
88.9
92.0
99.6
93.5
95.1

644
1,732
1,605
740
2,135
566
1,277
736
1,941

646
1,737
1,608
743
2,143
568
1,284
739
1,948

646
1,741
1,606
743
2,147
568
1,288
740
1,951

649
1,750
1,608
743
2,159
570
1,295
744
1,960

652
1,761
1,615
748
2,176
573
1,306
750
1,974

656
1,775
1,625
753
2,192
578
1,316
756
1,987

659
1,783
1,630
755
2,202
580
1,324
761
1,996

661
1,791
1,635
757
2,213
583
1,332
765
2,006

632
1,697
1,571
719
2,088
553
1,241
720
1,897

646
1,740
1,607
742
2,146
568
1,286
740
1,950

657
1,778
1,626
753
2,196
579
1,319
758
1,991

5,497
15,240
17,687
8,094
22,374
7,123
12,950
7,998
17,056

5,493
15,240
17,672
8,100
22,403
7,125
12,976
8,015
17,075

5,493
15,246
17,668
8,110
22,441
7,131
13,011
8,035
17,101

5,494
15,252
17,663
8,122
22,484
7,143
13,053
8,060
17,134

5,499
15,261
17,680
8,140
22,544
7,158
13,105
8,094
17,182

5,508
15,278
17,708
8,163
22,624
7,178
13,162
8,133
17,241

5,518
15,298
17,740
8,187
22,714
7,201
13,221
8,172
17,303

5,530
15,319
17,777
8,212
22,812
7,225
13,287
8,216
17,364

5,498
15,231
17,697
8,085
22,342
7,117
12,921
7,980
17,033

5,494
15,252
17,663
8,122
22,484
7,143
13,053
8,060
17,134

5,530
15,319
17,777
8,212
22,812
7,225
13,287
8,216
17,364

6.8
18.0
20.0
9.9
24.8
7.4
15.1
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.1
7.4
15.3
9.2
19.4

6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.2
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.5

6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.6

6.8
18.3
20.3
10.0
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.6

6.7
17.9
20.0
9.8
24.7
7.3
14.9
9.0
19.2

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.2
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.5

- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2011
2011

2010
1st

2nd

Heating Degree-days
New England ................
2,948
634
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,805
477
E. N. Central .................
3,217
523
W. N. Central ................
3,475
536
South Atlantic ...............
1,804
144
E. S. Central .................
2,297
169
W. S. Central ................
1,608
79
Mountain .......................
2,313
780
Pacific ...........................
1,312
678
U.S. Average ............
2,311
422
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
129
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
261
E. N. Central .................
0
282
W. N. Central ................
1
320
South Atlantic ...............
34
772
E. S. Central .................
8
679
W. S. Central ................
27
950
Mountain .......................
11
370
Pacific ...........................
7
120
U.S. Average ............
12
445
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

Year
3rd

4th

2010

2011

2012

81
57
99
142
7
11
2
116
93
62

2,280
2,116
2,369
2,430
1,264
1,516
833
1,745
1,086
1,665

3,314
3,023
3,306
3,517
1,501
1,866
1,273
2,338
1,481
2,285

846
609
755
769
179
247
101
773
675
517

105
67
182
200
18
44
9
71
52
77

2,271
2,064
2,294
2,493
1,058
1,372
837
1,925
1,148
1,624

3,255
3,002
3,274
3,393
1,531
1,895
1,208
2,346
1,467
2,264

929
751
797
729
242
288
99
734
563
540

187
126
153
181
25
32
9
167
107
98

2,262
2,058
2,308
2,506
1,058
1,376
889
1,935
1,145
1,632

5,942
5,455
6,209
6,583
3,219
3,993
2,521
4,954
3,170
4,460

6,536
5,763
6,537
6,979
2,756
3,529
2,220
5,107
3,356
4,503

6,633
5,937
6,532
6,809
2,856
3,591
2,205
5,182
3,282
4,534

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

526
730
684
787
1,292
1,256
1,593
991
495
930

0
5
10
15
168
61
179
78
33
68

0
0
0
1
99
9
113
11
2
33

111
216
227
294
789
653
1,091
316
68
432

496
670
668
810
1,262
1,134
1,767
971
606
942

0
5
9
13
203
62
193
61
41
77

0
0
1
3
115
33
92
14
7
37

70
141
197
264
576
472
812
376
150
348

351
514
504
653
1,086
1,008
1,432
865
513
776

0
5
8
12
209
62
176
70
41
77

656
996
976
1,123
2,265
2,005
2,749
1,450
655
1,455

607
891
904
1,118
2,353
1,858
3,164
1,359
717
1,484

421
660
710
932
1,986
1,575
2,512
1,325
711
1,238

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

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