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Report # 1 in Dairymark.coms Strategic global industry review series of publications February 2008
Dairymark.com A division of Shainwright Consulting and Research Group Pty Ltd PO Box 3274 Norwood, SA 5067 AUSTRALIA Email: info@dairymark.com Internet: www.dairymark.com
About Dairymark.com
Dairymark.com is a division of Shainwright Consulting & Research Group Pty Ltd, and is a specialist dairy industry intelligence and consulting organization. The company has completed a number of strategic, market and business development dairy research assignments for Australian and international clients. Recent examples include: Bangladesh dairy market study An overview of global dairy supply and demand A longitudinal dairy pricing study A strategic review of dairy industry patent activity A strategic review of dairy R&D activity A strategic review of trends in whey permeate utilization A study of the Australasian dairy industry Strategic research identifying trends and opportunities in Asian feed markets for dairy ingredients
In addition the company has published multi-client reports, including: Milk ingredients a strategic review of opportunities and applications in the oral care industry Dairy carbohydrates a strategic review of opportunities and applications Dairy permeates a strategic review of opportunities and applications Buttermilk a strategic review of opportunities and applications Colostrum a strategic review of opportunities and applications
Contact details are advised as follows: Dairymark.com A division of Shainwright Consulting and Research Group Pty Ltd PO Box 3274 Norwood, SA 5067 AUSTRALIA Email: info@dairymark.com Internet: www.dairymark.com Telephone/Facsimile: +61-8-8339 8185
Global ice cream industry strategic market, international trade & production review A new report on the global ice cream industry is the most current definitive report on the size and trends in the industry, with coverage of all major countries. The report is predicated by the fact that the global ice cream industry is large and growing, with yet more opportunities for market development by key players and participants including processors, equipment suppliers, ingredient suppliers, packaging companies, international traders and retailers. This is especially the case as the rapidly developing China market comes on stream, and the bright prospects of the sleepy Indian market awakening to what much of the rest of the world is fondly embracing. This embrace is ice cream consumption. Global ice cream consumption shows recent trends of strong year-on-year growth in worldwide ice cream consumption, with continuing prospects for strong ongoing growth and development. International trade in ice cream is significant, and again this business is increasing in size. Current global ice cream trade is approaching 1 billion litres per year, with significant prospects for further expansion. Ice cream capacity is responding well to this growth in consumption. However the report suggests that there could be pressure on product availability through 2008, which will provide some impetus to growth in international trade as major players realign their sourcing options and high demand markets pull stock from other regional sources. The report highlights the promise that the U.S. is expected to be best positioned to exploit the opportunities in export trade for ice cream, with a forecast that the U.S. will usurp the EU and become the leading ice cream exporter (excluding intra-EU trade) due to various factors, including: The present low value of the U.S. dollar, providing competitive cost supply options Growth opportunities on its doorstep including markets such as Mexico, Latin America, Canada, as well as an established track record in supply of dairy products to key Asian markets The positive image of ice cream emanating from the U.S. The U.S. as the home to innovation in ice cream The well-recognized ability of the U.S. to produce quality takehome products/desserts that are growing niches in many export markets The report highlights the role of global innovation as an important driver in the expansion of the world ice cream market, and suggests that this will differentiate companies from a competitive perspective.
Examples of the types of information presented in the report are advised as follows: Global Production, Consumption and International Trade million litres, over the period 1998 to 2012 Ice cream consumption trends key markets (million litres)
Market U.S. China Japan Germany Italy U.K. Russia Canada France Australia S. Korea Mexico Spain Chile Sweden N.Z. Poland India Philippines S. Arabia Finland Switzerland Denmark Czech. Rep. Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong UAE Sub-total All others 1998 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 1999 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2000 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2001 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2002 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2003 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2004 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2005 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2006 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2007(e) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
Total XXX XXX XXX world Source: Various, as indicated in the current report
Population (000)
4,076.1 298,444.2 20,264.1 5,231.4 9,016.6 33,098.9 4,062.2 58,133.5 10,379.1 16,491.5 7,523.9 16,134.2 60,609.2 82,422.3 5,450.7 127,463.6 4,492.2 60,876.1 48,846.8 40,397.8 142,893.5 39,921.8 1,313,973.7 38,536.7 7,040.9 107,449.5 23,036.1 188,078.2 89,468.7 1,095,352.0 6,637,694.9
Global ice cream imports recent trends and forecasts key markets (000 litres)
Market Mexico EU US China Australia Japan Singapore Switzerland Brazil Canada Russia Hong Kong Taiwan Norway Venezuela Sub-total All others Total 2004 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2005 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2006 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2007(e) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2008(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2009(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2010(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2011(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2012(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
43 2
21
79
3 _ _
13 _ Dec
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Rainfall (mm) in Delhi (Average values for each month)
India has a very poorly developed ice cream industry. Total consumption is growing very strongly, standing at 172 million litres per year. However, with the sheer population size, this means that per capita consumption is only 0.14 litres per year, among the lowest in the world Constraints on consumption are subject to economic conditions, affordability, and product availability (an inadequate cold chain). However, growth in per capita consumption will lead to tremendous volume increases and there is little doubt that this will occur in the short- to medium-term (and beyond). A small volume is imported, and there is some exports to regional markets but generally India plays a minor role in any aspect of ice cream global trade
Value (US$/litre)
S.Arabia
25,000
Total
20,000
15,000 2004
2005
2006
2007(e)
2007(e)
Kuwait
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
UAE
3,000
Australia
1,000
Malaysia
600
2,000
400
1,000
200
A strong growth trend is evident for Canada exports up from 18.5 million litres 2004 to 28 million litres 2007(e), growing an average 3.2 million litres (+17%) p.a. U.S. imports achieved 17.4 million litres 2007(e), although volume share fell from 80% 2004 to 62% 2007(e) - much of the share fall is attributed to supply growth to Arab markets, with S. Arabia (10% share), Kuwait (9%) & UAE (8%) joining Australia & Malaysia as key growth destinations Average value of supply strengthened from US$1.92/l 2004 to US$2.43/l 2007(e) and reflects inflation in world dairy trade
2,000
380
1,600
370
1,400
360
1,200
350
1,000
19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 0 20 6 07 (e )
1998 Million Share litres (%) 193.0 49.9 110.0 28.5 65.5 16.9 18.0 386.5 4.7 100.0
2002 Million Share litres (%) 163.5 45.9 108.2 30.4 62.5 17.5 22.0 356.2 6.2 100.0
2006 Million Share litres (%) 171.0 46.3 115.0 31.2 65.0 17.6 18.0 369.0 4.9 100.0
390
1,800
2007(e) Million Share litres (%) 176.5 47.0 115.0 30.7 65.5 17.5 18.0 375.0 4.8 100.0
[1] Includes soft serve, artisanal, home-made ice cream products, etc [2] Includes frozen yoghurt, gelato, sherbet, etc. Sources: Trade interviews; trade press
Notes: [1] Principally gas stations Sources: Trade interviews; trade press
Various
Table of Contents:
1. Executive Summary. 1
1.1. A strategic precursor to the report 1.2. Executive Synopsis 2.1. Volume trends international market, trade & production 2.2. Comparative per capita consumption 2.3. ARGENTINA Country overview 2.4. AUSTRALIA Country overview 2.5. BELGIUM Country overview 2.6. BRAZIL Country overview 2.7. CANADA Country overview 2.8. CHILE Country overview 2.9. CHINA Country overview 2.10. DENMARK Country overview 2.11. FINLAND Country overview 2.12. FRANCE Country overview 2.13. GERMANY Country overview 2.14. HONG KONG Country overview 2.15. INDIA Country overview 2.16. IRELAND Country overview 2.17. ITALY Country overview 2.18. JAPAN Country overview 2.19. MEXICO Country overview 2.20. NETHERLANDS Country overview 2.21. NEW ZEALAND Country overview 2.22. PHILIPPINES Country overview 2.23. POLAND Country overview 2.24. RUSSIA Country overview 2.25. SINGAPORE Country overview 2.26. SOUTH KOREA Country overview 2.27. SPAIN Country overview 2.28. SWEDEN Country overview 2.29. SWITZERLAND Country overview 2.30. TAIWAN Country overview 2.31. UNITED KINGDOM Country overview 2.32. UNITED STATES Country overview 3.1. Global analysis 3.2. Major ice cream producing countries 3.3. Production volume key global players 3.4. Nestl SA brief profile 3.5. Unilever brief profile 4.1. Global overview export trade 4.2. EU export trade 4.3. AUSTRALIA ice cream exports 4.4. BELGIUM ice cream exports 4.5. CANADA ice cream exports 4.6. CHINA ice cream exports 1 3 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 49 52 54 56 57 58 59
Attachment 1: Statistical data import trends by country... 167 Attachment 2: Ice cream export trends statistical data sheet.. 181
Global ice cream industry strategic market, international trade & production review
Report # 1 in Dairymark.coms Strategic global industry review series of publications
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