Climate C..

2009
Climate Change in India
SIS Language and International Studies 1st Sem. Aalborg University 16-12-2009
Climate Change in India 2009

Project Form
Please place this form right after the cover page of your project.It must appear from the table of contents which student is responsible for each section of the project. Line spacing 1. Study program: English SIS 1st Sem.
Name of exam: Modern World 1: Issues in Globalization Number of standard pages of 2400 signs allowed according to the curriculum: 60 Number of standard pages of 2400 signs handed in: 53,6 (128.652 charecters with spaces) (List the number of standard pages handed in not counting table of contents, bibliography and appendix) (NB! Please note that you wont be allowed to hand in the project if it exceeds the maximum number of standard pages allowed according to the curriculum. If the maximum number is exceeded, it means that you will have used an examination attempt). Language English Project group No : Group 7 Students CPR numbers CPR: 011289-1722 Name: Larsen, Marie Louise Gammelgrd___________________
CPR: 160789-2012
Name: Kristiansen, Maria________________________________
CPR: 020890-2199
Name: Rasmussen, Jeppe Blumensaat_____________________
CPR: 210388-1822
Name: Srensen, Nanna_________________________________
Hand in date: 2009-12-16
Name of supervisor: Laura Bang Lindegaard
Aalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization
Table of Contents
Figures and Tables ................................................................................................................. 5 Problem formulation ............................................................................................................. 6 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 6 Method .................................................................................................................................. 7 Part 1. Status of Climate Change in India...................................................................... 11 Threats in India due to climate change - Marie-Louise Gammelgaard Larsen & Maria Kristiansen .......................................................................................................... 11 Climate change policies in India - Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen ............................... 15 Climate injustice - Maria Kristiansen ............................................................................ 21 Theory of Climate Conflicts by Smith & Vivekananda; strong or weak governance Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen ..................................................................................... 24 Conflicts in India cost by climate change - Nanna Srensen ........................................ 25 The Indus River System - Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen ............................................. 27 Part 2. Analysing Gwynne Dyers fourth Scenario Northern India, 2036 ................... 31 Analysing author-audience relationship - Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen ................... 31 Argumentation analysis Nanna Srensen ................................................................. 34 Analysis of the main facts - Marie Louise Gammelgaard Larsen ................................. 40 Analysis of the scenario is it realistic? - Maria Kristiansen........................................ 48 Part 3. The perspectival section climate issues in greater optics .............................. 52 Climate wars: the possibility of armed conflicts induced by climate changes - Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen ................................................................................................ 52 Climate refugees, an important issue induced by Climate change .............................. 57 Aalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization

How to avoid the scenario and other catastrophes caused by climate changes - Maria Kristiansen .................................................................................................................... 63 The Climate Changes Critics - Nanna Srensen ............................................................ 66 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 73 Reflections ........................................................................................................................... 75 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Enclosure ...................................................................................................................... 78 Enclosure ...................................................................................................................... 79 Enclosure ...................................................................................................................... 80 Enclosure: Process description ..................................................................................... 81 Enclosure - Scenario 4 Northern India, 2036 ........................................................... 83
References ........................................................................................................................... 89

Figures and Tables
Figure 1 Indias share in global GHG emissions, source World Development Indicators 2007 (Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 75) ............................................................................................................. 22 Figure 2 the Impact of Climate Change: Two possible roads, strong or weak governance (Smith & Vivekananda, Climate change, conflict and fragilty, 2009 (November), p. 10) ............................................... 25 Figure 3 Illustration over the Indus River System (http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/indusvalley/images/html/ivl1_physical-features.gif .................................... 28 Figure 4 Adapted and translated from Knudsen based on Toulmins theory ................................................... 38 Figure 5 International Alerts map over knock-on consequences of climate change separated to red as high risk of armed conflict and yellow as high risk of political instability. .............................................................. 54 Figure 6 Conceptual model of the influence of climate change on migration through flooding adapted from (Perch-Nielsen, Bttig, & Imboden, 2008) ....................................................................................................... 59 Figure 7 Conceptual model of the influence of climate change on migration through sea level rise adapted from (Perch-Nielsen, Bttig, & Imboden, 2008) ............................................................................................... 60 Figure 8 ("The Great Global Warming Swindle", 2007) ................................................................................... 67 Figure 9 Diagram from An inconvenient truth ................................................................................................. 71
Table 1 Three Strategic Indian Perspectives on Climate Change ..................................................................... 19 Table 2 Theory on connections between physical consequences of climate change and the knock-on socio political consequences of climate change. Adapted from Smith & Vivekananda ............................................ 24 Table 3 Range of spatial and temporal scales of environment and migration processes. ............................... 61

Problem formulation
India is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world in proportion to climate change. We want to describe current situation in India and the relationship between India and Pakistan in the light of their conflict over the Indus Water Treaty. Secondly, we want to analyze Gwen Dyers scenario on Northern India 2036, and examine whether or not the scenario seems realistic. We will also try to outline what can be done to prevent the scenario from coming true. Then we will look at similar conflicts due to climate change including climate refugees and finally we will take a look at the climate critics point of view.
Introduction
Climate change is not just an environmental issue, as for too many people still believe. It is an all encompassing threat. It is a threat to health it could imperil the worlds food supply it could endanger the very ground on which nearly half the worlds population live climate change is also a threat to peace and security. (Koffi Anan, 2006: p. 1) 1 As Koffi Anan states with this quote, climate change is not just an environmental issue. It is an issue emerging on all levels of society. We have chosen to examine this issue in connection to India. First we are going to describe the future impacts of climate change in India as well as the policies related to it. Which environmental policies does India have, and has India seen development in these policies? Then we will take an ethic look on the climate issue: what is the injustice of climate change? We will try to outline, how armed conflicts induced by climate change is possible in South Asia. More specifically, we will look at the conflict between Pakistan and India over the Indus Water Treaty, which Gwynne Dyer builds his scenario of northern India 2036 upon. Gwynne Dyers scenario is a worst case scenario, which exemplifies what a simple conflict can develop into because of climate change. We will examine what Dyers purpose is as
1
(Annan, 2006)

well as establish who the target audience is. Then we will analyze which kind of argumentation Dyer uses, and compare his arguments with scientific data. Is his argumentation factual and is the scenario realistic? Is there anything that can prevent the scenario from coming true in the future? There are many aspects related to climate change. The conflict over the Indus Water Treaty is only one of many similar conflicts. Are conflicts induced by climate change not only a regional matter, but a question of international security? Migration related to climate change is another important issue we want to have as an aspect of our assignment. How can climate change cause refugees and how are they protected on the International agenda? As we are taking a very pro-climate approach to our project we want to complete it with an understanding of the climate critics point of view. Which arguments do they use to support the approach that climate change is more a natural development rather than human caused?
Method
Climate changes are a very current issue today. We live in a globalized world and the Cop 15 meeting in Copenhagen has already begun. We find the whole subject very interesting and therefore we have chosen to base our project on the issue of climate change. First we wanted to look at the whole issue from the developing countries point of view and then we chose India as our main focus. The reason why we chose India was because India has a leading position and is the representative of the developing countries in the climate debate. Part 1 In the first part of our report we want describe the situation in India in connection with climate changes. First we would like to find out which climate changes has already occurred in India and what these changes might lead to. The way we want to do this is by

using the State of Environment report 2009 published by the Government of India and the Ministry of Environment and Forest which rely on data from IPCC. We would also like to describe the climate change policies in India by using Theory of Environmental Policy in India. This theory is taken from the report Toward a Progressive Indian and Global Politics by Navroz K. Dubash, we will use this to show how Indian governance has shifted position and in the analyzing part to demonstrate how the scenario can be aimed at the Indian society to create debate. We would also like to illuminate the question of global injustice. We would like to do this by using the book A Climate of Injustice Global Inequality, North-South Politics, and Climate Policy by J. Timmons Roberts and Bradley C. Parks. We have used this book because it questions the issue of climate injustice well. We will use A Climate of Conflict 2007 and 2009 by Smith and Vivekananda to describe the theory of how the consequences of climate change can lead to a violent conflict. We will demonstrate the connections between climate change and violent conflicts in South Asia as well as on the global scale in the perspective part. To illuminate the issue of climate change conflicts in India we want to use the book Climate Changes In Armed Conflict by James R. Lee to describe the situation of south Asia. This book is particular interesting because it describes not only Indias situation but also the situation of countries around India. Part 2 We want to analyze the Scenario Four, Northern India 2036 by Gwynne Dyer because it shows a worst case scenario on what might happen in India if climate changes are not averted. To analyze the text we will use an argumentation analysis made by Center for Journalistik og efteruddannelse to determine whether or not the text is factual. We will also use Toulmins argumentation model which is illustrated by Jrn Ingemann Knudsen to define Gwynne Dyers purpose with this scenario. We want to examine Dyers purpose with writing this scenario. Aalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization

In the analyzing part we have examined the audience - author relationship starting at a national level, showing who the scenario might address by using Dubash theory. Furthermore we will try to determine who the scenario address on the regional, the intercontinental and the global level. We have also chosen to make an analysis of the facts used in Gwynne Dyers scenario. Here we want to compare available scientific data with the data Dyer uses. Since it is many different factual data we have to find, we will rely on several reports, articles and other data. However, we are going to use the book India and her Neighbors and the report Pakistan Country Water Resource Assistance Strategy on several of the facts stated. In the construction analysis of the scenario we will use the theory by Anheier, Helmut & Katz, Hagai Introducing Futures Research: Forecasting and Scenarios. This shows how scenarios normally are constructed and why one should use them. We will compare Dyers scenario with their theory. We would also like to analyze whether or not the scenario by Dyer is realistic, by comparing the scenario to the facts and computations in the section Threats in India due to climate change. Part 3 Since climate change is a global issue with many dimensions, we want to look at similar conflicts that can be caused by climate change in this part, including the issue of Climate Migrants. To describe the link between climate change and migration we will include figures taken from the report Exploring the link between climate change and migration. We are also going to use a table from the report Migration, Environment and Climate change; Assessing the evidence to show how many types of migration there is. Besides these two reports, we will mainly use: Protecting Climate Refugees: The case for a global protocol by Biermann and Boas, and Migration and Climate Change from the International Organization for Migration. We will rely on these four reports because they cover the issue of climate refugees very well. Aalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization

We would also like to discuss how to prevent this scenario or similar catastrophes from happening. Here we want to use information from COP15.dk, to get the latest update. We want to discuss the issues of armed conflicts induced by climate change and put a perspective on how a possible armed conflict caused by climate change is not only a regional conflict but an international issue. To get another perspective on the issue we want to discuss the climate critics opinion and determine their approach in the climate debate. We will look at the issue in a broader perspective and try to determine what will happen around the world if climate changes are not prevented. We will use Al Gores documentary An Inconvenient Truth because he takes an approach similar to Gwynne Dyers. We will also comment on the documentary The Big Global Warming Swindle to get the climate critics perspective. We have chosen this documentary because it shows the opposite sides opinions. It is a documentary which is trying to prove people like Al Gore and Gwynne Dyer wrong by analyzing climate change from their own point of view.
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Part 1. Status of Climate Change in India
Threats in India due to climate change - Marie-Louise Gammelgaard Larsen & Maria Kristiansen In 2008, India reached a population on 1,147 million people, the growth rate in population is approx. 2.1 percent (2006) 2. Northern India is characterized by its great mountains, for an example it is the place with the great Himalayan Mountains. In Northern India, one will also find the Punjab area, where the five great rivers; Sutlej, Ravi, Beas, Jhelum and Chenab derives from. India borders to Pakistan in the north-west and China in the northeast. East to India is the border to Bangladesh. Most of India lies in the tropical belt, but since it is such a large country, the northern part of India lies in the subtropical belt. This means that there is a big difference in temperatures from the north to the south of India. Therefore, the impacts of climate change also vary a lot depending on which area of India one is located in. In this chapter we are going to describe some of the threats in India due to the change in climate. We have studied the State of Environment Report from 2009, and our data is mainly found in this study from page 115 till 118. India is a large developing country with nearly 700 million rural population directly depended on climate sensitive sectors (agriculture, forests and fisheries) and natural resources (such as water, biodiversity, mangroves, coastal zones and grasslands) for their subsistence and livelihoods. (Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 74) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperature will rise by 2-4.5C by the end of this century, with a 2.7-4.3 increase over India by the 2080s3. The panel also predicts an increase in rainfall over the Indian sub-continent by 6-8
2 3
(Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, 2009) (Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 74)
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percent and that the sea level would rise by 88 centimeters by 21004. This has major impacts on India. State-wise impacts of climate change5: Developing countries are often vulnerable to reduced economic growth as a result of global warming6. Physical impact: Most consequences of global warming results from physical changes like a rise in sea level, higher local temperatures, and changes in the rainfall patterns. However, other effects such as the release of methane hydrates or clathrates and forest along with species die-off, may cause unforeseen impacts such as a decrease in the levels of oxygen in the Earths atmosphere7. Most scientists believe that global warming will lead to more extreme weather patterns such as: Extreme temperatures and heat spells have already become common over Northern India, and caused human fatalities. In 1998 alone, 650 deaths occurred in Orissa due to heat waves8. India has a 7,515 km coastline. This area will in particular be suffering hard from storms and a rise in sea level, causing a displacement of millions of people. This will in particular be hit hard by storm surges and sea level rise, flooding low-lying areas and damaging economic assets and infrastructure. In 1999 a cyclone in Orissa destroyed decades of development and claimed more than 30,000 human lives. India depends heavily on the monsoon for meeting its agricultural and water needs, and also for protecting and breeding its rich biodiversity. Scientists at IIT Delhi warn that by the 2050s, India will experience a decline in its summer rainfall, which accounts for almost 70 percent of the total annual rainfall and is vital to agriculture9.
4 5 6 7 8 9
IBID. p. 74 The setup idea has been taking from the State of Environment Report 2009 (Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 76) IBID. p. 76 IBID. p. 76 IBID. p. 76
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One of the biggest threats to India is the melting of glaciers that causes rises in sea level and flooding. According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Himalayan glaciers could disappear within 50 years because of climate change. This will have impacts for more than a billion people in India. It is believed that global warming has pushed up the temperature of the Himalayan ground by up to 0.6C in the past 30 years. Ice melts share in sea level rise is increasing, and will increase further if the larger ice sheets crumble. As mountain glaciers shrink, large regions that are depending on glacial runoff for water supply could experience life threatening shortages. Some of the glaciers in Himalaya are receding at an average of 10-15 meters per year. When the glaciers melt, many of them form lakes at their end which are held together only by frozen mud dams. The dams can break and cause floods of water, rocks and gravel, which can destroy villages and fields downstream. When the glaciers retreat, the water flow is expected to be affected during the dry season, which will lead to freshwater scarcity in the summer months when melting water contribute up to 75 percent of the river water. The regions agriculture and power generation are partially dependent on this water supply10. Socio-economic impact India may not be able to feed itself in the future due to the threat of climate change leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought and floods, thereby affecting the production of small and marginal farms. Since most of Indias GDP comes from agriculture, this is a very serious threat11. Another aspect of climate change in a socio-economic matter is the impacts on forests. Climate model projections for India, show shifts in forest boundary, changes in speciesassemblage or forest types, changes in net primary productivity, possible forest die back in the transient phase and potential loss or change in biodiversity. Even in a relatively short span of about 50 years time, most of the forest biomes in India seem to be highly
10 11
(Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 78) IBID. p. 78
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vulnerable to the projected change in climate. Biodiversity is also likely to be detrimentally impacted. These impacts on forests will have adverse socio-economic implications for forest-dependent communities and the national economy. The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are predicted to be long-term and irreversible12. As climate change is leading to warming and water stress this could mean an increase of land degradation, leading to desertification. It is important to note that the climate sensitive sectors (forests, agriculture, coastal zones) and the natural resources (groundwater, soil, biodiversity, etc) are already under major stress due to the socio-economic pressures. Climate change is likely to worsen the degradation of resources and socioeconomic pressures13. Climate related concerns in the context of Indian coastal zones are erosion, flooding and deterioration of coastal ecosystems such as the mangroves. In many cases these problems are caused by sea level rise and tropical cyclones. A one meter rise in sea level is projected to displace approximately 7.1 million people in India and approx. 5,764 sq. km. of land will be lost along with 4,200 km of roads. Other impacts, expected as a result of sea level rise, includes flooding of low lying coastal areas with loss of yield and employment. It will cause damage to coastal infrastructure, aquaculture and the coastal tourism14. Water resources will come under an increasing pressure in the Indian subcontinent, especially Pakistan, due to the changes in climate. Projections developed for India indicates a decrease in rainy days by more than 15 days in the western and central India, and 5-10 days in the northeast India, near the Himalaya. As the water-needs grow, so does the vulnerability to meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought15.
12 13 14 15
(Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 79) (Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 80) IBID p. 80 IBID p. 80
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Studies show that between 15 to 40 percent of all species in the Indian ecosystem will face extinction with a 2C increase in temperature. 30 percent of the coral reefs in Asia are predicted to be lost over the next 30 years as a result of multiple stresses and climate change. According to the IPCC, the most threatened eco-systems will be those in South Asia16. Human health is also increasingly at stake due to climate change. The climate change may affect vector borne diseases and strengthen their survival and reproduction rate. By 2050, it is projected that Malaria is likely to persist in Orissa, west Bengal and southern parts of Assam, bordering north of west Bengal. It may shift from the central Indian region to the south eastern states, also the northern states including Himachal Pradesh may become Malaria prone in the future with the predicted climate changes17. We will explore how these changes have affected the environmental policies in India on different levels, in the next section. Climate change policies in India - Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen As the worlds biggest democracy, and one of the largest CO2 emitters, India is an important player in the international climate discourse. What is the environmental policy in India at the international, national and state level? India use the same environmental system as the U.S. at both the national and the state level, which allows individual laws to be made in more or less exposed states 18, causing a decentralized creation of a policy, which turns the governance from a national to a local level. According to Bhandari19, the procedure of creating an environmental policy in India follows the same path as the international level. After the independence, the environmental policy aimed at development for the people in the 1950s and 60s. In the 70s the policy shifted and the center of attention was programmes of the people. The policy of the
16 17 18 19
(Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 82) IBID p. 82 (Stern & Pachauri, 2009, p. 15 min.) (2008, p. 88)
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1980s was with the people, and the 90s headed for a policy by the people. Dubash20 notice that Indian environmentalism has been an essential element of the Southern brand of environmentalism. Surprisingly, Indias approach to climate change first started shifting in the last couple of years from a diplomatic strategy to a developmental challenge21, which is shown in the latest environmental policies. Since the current government, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), gained the power in May 2004, adjustments have been engaged in the Indian policy on climate change. It has always been Indias problem, that there are far too many government departments and ministries, who are involved in environmental policy. Particularly the power sector, which have departments of: coal, petroleum and gas, power, atomic power, new and renewable energy22. To avoid problems concerning different messages to the national and international community the government have created the National Environment Policy 200623. In 2007, the publication of the 4AR caused the Prime Minister Singh to make an advice council on climate change24, including members of the government and different environmental institutes e.g. TERI. To acquire an easier overview and easier communications between those agencies involved with climate change, the PM appointed Shayam Saran in March 2008 as Special Envoy of the PM for Climate Change. He was at the same time chosen as Chief negotiator for India at the COP meetings. On June 30th 2008, PM Singh released Indias first National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), outlining existing and future policies and programs addressing climate mitigation and adaptation25. The NAPCC recognize eight central parts of national missions running through the twelfth Five-Year-Plan (FYP) to 2017. In the plan each department had to include the relevant policies. The most specific parts of the plan are the National Solar
20 21 22 23 24 25
(Dubash, Environmentalism in the age of climate Change , 2009, p. 1) (Dubash, TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE INDIAN AND GLOBAL CLIMATE POLITICS, 2009/1 (september), p. 15) (Stern & Pachauri, 2009, p. 17 min.) (Bhandari, 2008, pp. 86-87) (Stern & Pachauri, 2009, p. 13 min.) (Pew Center on Climate Change, 2008 (June), p. 1)
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Mission and the National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency. The most interesting parts of the plan are the National Water Mission, which sets a goal of a 20 percent improvement in water use efficiency, and the National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem, which aims to preserve the glaciers, trying to avoid the issues mentioned in last section. Historically, India has on the international level, been remarkably aware of the climate change and especially on the greater effects on the developing world. In 1988 R. Pachauri26 raised the climate change issue concerning the developing world, in particular at the International Association for Power and Energy Supply, which according to himself brought a laugh along 27. A year later at the Non-Aligned Summit 1989 India proposed a Planet Protection Fund28 for transferring environment friendly technologies, especially to the developing world, to protect the globe against consequences of climate change. The construction of the fund would demand that all countries, with the exception of the LCDs, should contribute 0.1% of their GDP to this organization ($18 billion in 1989 annual). The purpose was to provide all countries with free access to technologies to protect and preserve the environment of the Earth. India insisted on the need for a global effort throughout a fund, but did not get the support, which may have been a mistake with the knowledge of hindsight. The actual breakthrough in International climate change negotiations came three years later at the famous Rio summit. At the meeting, India was labelled an Annex B country, which is a developing country with no obligation to cuts under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
26
Dr Rajendra Pachauri is probably the most recognised Indian climate change/environmental research and is currently serving one of the most powerful position in the world of climate change as Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
27 28
(Stern & Pachauri, 2009, p. 9 min) (Parthasarathy, 1998, p. 7)
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17 years later only a small amount of people in India believe global climate change negotiation procedures can bring an outcome, that is both environmental protective and fair.
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Three views conduct the lack of trust in the negotiations according to Dubash: First, India is being unfairly labelled a major emitter. Second, given the unfinished development agenda in India, discussing constraints on India are premature. Third, there is insufficient recognition that India is moving in the right direction on climate mitigation, and is starting from a low base. (Dubash, 2009/1 (september), pp. 1-2)
Most Indian people struggle with being labelled as a major emitter, due to the fact that the statement is based on the overall Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. According to this, India is the fourth largest emitter with five percent. 30 India should be judged on the emissions pro capita instead, and the fact that they have a major development issue, especially concerning poverty should be taken into consideration. To get a better understanding of the view among the Indian population on climate change we have chosen to implicate Dubash new theory on three different environmental positions within India as a feature. Dubash theory on three types of divergent environmental positions within India31 Dubash explains that labels of stereotypes and strategic positions are created to help map the range of views in the Indian climate discourse. He has constructed the types based on personal observation and interaction at a range of meetings over the last two years. The arrangement of the four dimensions below in Table 1 is: political reading of climate change, foundational demand in the negotiation process, domestic agenda and International strategy. He makes it clear that, even though there is a great deal of similar perspectives within India, these shared perspectives do not translate into unanimity over strategy.
29 30 31
(Dubash, TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE INDIAN AND GLOBAL CLIMATE POLITICS, 2009/1 (september), p. 1) IBID (p. 2)
The table and all three strategic perspectives is from (Dubash, TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE INDIAN AND GLOBAL CLIMATE POLITICS, 2009/1 (september), pp. 8-12)
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GROWTH FIRST STONEWALLERS
PROGRESSIVE REALISTS INDIA AS EXCUSE

FATALISM
PROGRESSIVE INTERNATIONALISTS INDIA AS EXCUSE

COOPERATION
POLITICAL READING
GEOPOLITICAL THREAT
FOUNDATIONAL DEMAND
E QUITY
E QUITY
E QUITY + CLIMATE EFFECTIVENESS
DOMESTIC AGENDA INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY
GROWTH FIRST STONEWALL

COMMITMENTS
CO- BENEFITS FOCUS AT HOME , DELINK

GLOBALLY
CO- BENEFITS LINK DOMESTIC AND

GLOBAL
MOTTO
ITS OUR TURN!
ITS AN UNFAIR WORLD !

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SEIZE THE MOMENT !
Table 1 Three Strategic Indian Perspectives on Climate Change
Growth-First Stonewallers: Its our turn now! Growth-first stonewallers are commonly sceptical of climate science. They see climate change discourse as a threat for reduced growth and development, since climate may bring along obligations to cover the cost of climate impacts. They consider the industrialized countries more intimidating to India than climate impacts, because the climate negotiations are some kind of suppression strategy from the western world. Equity across nations is their fundamental demand and they will not support an international agreement, as well as prioritising Indias recent high growth rate. Because of this, Stonewallers would favour a weak climate regime that allows India unconstrained growth over a stronger regime, even if it required industrialized countries to do proportionately more. Thus is their motto Its our turn now referring to economic growth and development. Progressive Realists: Its an unfair world! Progressive realists are approaching climate change impacts as a serious risk to India. They suggest that growth of India and other BRIC countries have become an explanation for the inaction by the Annex I countries. Therefore, they are severely sceptical about the International negotiation process. Instead of hiding behind emerging economies Annex I
32
(Dubash, TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE INDIAN AND GLOBAL CLIMATE POLITICS, 2009/1 (september), p. 9)
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countries should take their historical responsibility serious according to the progressive realists. Clear evidence of limited mitigation activities and minimal financing offers are seen as a failure as well as serious scarcity of engagement in equity issues. Consequently, progressive realists have increasingly focused their efforts on India. They aim to pursue co-benefits from an environmental friendly development. Their motto: Its an unfair world! is linked to a lack of faith in the International regime. Therefore, the group increasingly argues that India has to do its part but not to formally link these efforts to the international process. (Dubash, 2009/1 (september), p. 10) Progressive Internationalists: Seize the moment! Progressive Internationalists share many of the positions of the progressive realists, as both of the groups put forward, that the Annex I countries are using India as an excuse for inaction. Their agenda is to pressure the necessity for a fair climate regime, as well as forcing a powerful attitude toward implementation of activities, that conduct climate cobenefits and development. The major differences between the realist and the internationalist, is the suggestion, that India should press forward the international climate change negotiations by explicitly supporting Indian interests through an efficient global climate regime. In other words this relation will allow India to take hold of a high moral stand point and clearly put Indias power behind a global agreement. In view of the fact climate impacts will damage the poorer population the worst, progressive internationalists argue that a useless solution would continue to exacerbate inequality. The choice between fairness and efficiency is somewhat misleading, but they suggest that; there is no choice but to strive for both (Dubash, 2009/1 (september), p. 12). An important position by the progressive internationalists, connected to their motto, is the potential economic opportunities for India, which includes being innovative in developing low-carbon technologies. In other words is there a chance to: Seize the moment! Indias phase shifting
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Indias position has been shifting from a growth-first stance to a progressive realist view according to Dubash33. The National Action Plan is an example of an intend to make a qualitative shift, to change the development approach toward a co-benefited situation, comprehended by a greater environmental sustainability. Even though this is a sign of shift, India has become more radical, ending up in the last phase in Dubash theory. A few days before attending the Conference of Parties 15 session (COP15) the Environmental and Forest Minister, Jairam Ramesh, announced in the parliament that the Government is: willing to rein in its carbon intensity -- the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted per unit of economic output -- by between 20 and 25 percent by 2020, from 2005 levels according to Reuters in New Delhi34. Furthermore, the Minister left a statement, that India had shifted position to a more progressive attitude saying: "India can't be like a frog in the well, India has to show leadership to its own people -- we need to show action."35 With this shift India demonstrates, that they take climate change very seriously, but still there is injustice! Climate injustice - Maria Kristiansen When we look at Figure 1 Indias share in global GHG emissions, source World Development Indicators 2007 we can see that Indias share in global co2 emissions is only five percent as opposed to the United States whose share of co2 emissions is 22 percent. This needs to be taken into consideration when a climate treaty is made.
33 34 35
(Dubash, TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE INDIAN AND GLOBAL CLIMATE POLITICS, 2009/1 (september), p. 11) (Mukherjee, 2009) IBID.
21
Figure 1 Indias share in global GHG emissions, source World Development Indicators 2007 (Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 75)
According to a new study from Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), the poorest ten percent in the U.S emit more greenhouse gasses than the richest ten percent of the Indians.36 See Enclosure 1. The question of global justice Indias participation in a global climate treaty is doubtful and it depends on whether or not this treaty will be fair to India and the other developing countries.37 In general the question of fairness is important in the debate of climate change, despite the current move by the Indian Government shown in last section, and the following part will look at this perspective. One can look at the issue of climate change in many ways. Most of us probably see climate change as a global issue that has to be taken seriously. But most climate critics believe that climate change is not caused by humans, but is just a natural development which cannot be avoided. However, one can also look at climate change as a matter of justice. It is richer and industrialized countries that have caused this problem of climate
36 37
(Centre for Science and Environment, p. 1) (Joshi & Patel, 2009)
22

change, but it is those who live in the poorer countries that will suffer most from the consequences of climate change.38 The fact that it is developing countries that suffer the most from climate change, caused by the developed countries is in our opinion a problem that has to be taken into consideration, if a global climate agreement is constituted. This raises the question of human rights. Is development a human right? The U.S does not change its longstanding opposition to the so-called right to development. Development is not a right. On the contrary it is a goal we all hold the U.S cannot agree to, and would disassociate itself from, any interpretation that accepts a right to development (Roberts & Parks, 2007, p. 27) According to the U.S development the right to obtain wealth is not a human right. According to UNs declaration of human rights, everybody has the right to social security and economic, social and cultural rights indispensable for his dignity and the free development of his personality. (UN, 1948, p. 22 article ) The declaration of human rights says; everybody has the right to economic development, so the U.S clearly has another opinion than written in the constitution, when they say that development is not a right. The wealthier nations have for a long time tried to separate the issue of climate change with the issues of development. But the concerns of development in the poorer nations will maintain. Currently, it is increasingly acknowledged that the issues of climate change and development are linked together. Developing countries will never participate in a global climate agreement that flouts their development needs.39 Therefore it is important to make a climate treaty that takes into consideration, which countries that emits the most CO2. As we can observe in Figure 1, it is the wealthier countries that emit the most CO2. Consequently, it would only be fair if the developed countries help the developing countries in the fight against climate challenge. Another aspect concerning the issues of climate change, which the developing world is especially vulnerable to, is the possible connection between climate change and violent
38 39
(Hulme, Why we disagree about climate change , 2009, p. 251) (Roberts & Parks, 2007, p. 26)
23

conflicts. But what is the connection between the two? We will try to examine this in the next section. Theory of Climate Conflicts by Smith & Vivekananda; strong or weak governance - Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen In many countries the impact of climate change will raise the risk for a violent conflict40, in other words the consequences of consequences are going to be realised. First step in the procedure is addressing the physical cost, which may bring along socio political effects as described in the section: Threats in India due to climate change.
PHYSICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
KNOCK - ON SOCIO POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES

OF CLIMATE CHANGE
MELTING GLACIERS SEA-LEVEL RISE LOSS OF ISLAND COASTLINE LESS USABLE LAND
LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY FOOD INSECURITY INCREASED SOCIAL TENSION LESS ACCESS TO USEABLE
WATER
DROUGHTS FLOODS DESERTIFICATION SPREAD OF DISEASE AND PESTILENCE CHANGES TO CROP SEASONS
AND OUTPUT
DECREASED TRADE DECLINE IN HUMAN HEALTH INCREASED POVERTY DECREASED PHYSICAL SECURITY INCREASED MIGRATION
Table 2 Theory on connections between physical consequences of climate change and the knock-on socio political consequences of climate change. Adapted from Smith & Vivekananda
41
To relate this to a theory, Smith and Vivekananda has analysed the more common consequences and how they relate to each other. The purpose of this theory is to show how
40
(Smith & Vivekananda, A climate of conflict: The links between climate change, peace and war., 2007, p. 10)
41
(Smith & Vivekananda, A climate of conflict: The links between climate change, peace and war., 2007, p. 10)
24

the secondary causes can create a violent conflict due to climate change, mainly if the governance is not prepared for the pressures climate change can resolve in. The mentioned pressures are primarily connected to the construction of the institutions, departments and legalization related to effects of climate change. Primarily, the most important is the preparedness to handle crises on all levels to avoid a violent conflict. The theory divides the governance capability to handle this in strong or weak way, and points to the fact that once a country is trapped in violent conflict, it is even harder to get out of the circle due to climate change.
Figure 2 the Impact of Climate Change: Two possible roads, strong or weak governance (Smith & Vivekananda, Climate change, conflict and fragilty, 2009 (November), p. 10)
As it might occur to one, developing countries are much more vulnerable to violent conflicts caused by climate change. To be more specific the next section deals with possible conflicts in South-Asia, and in India specifically, caused by climate change. Conflicts in India cost by climate change - Nanna Srensen Climate change affects a great many countries in different continents, such as Asia. Climate change causes many problems and conflicts; some of the eventualities of climate
25

change can include flooding and weather forces of hurricane proportions. In other parts of the world, rivers are drying up, and in the near future water will be scarce. China and India are currently arguing about ownership of various rivers in the surrounding areas due to the future prospect of water deficiency, which we will explain in-depth later on. As mentioned there are numerous countries affected by climate change, and one of these is India. The temperature in India is already what can be considered in the higher end of the scale, but due to the changes in the climate the temperature has gone up even further. The weather forecast for South Asia shows a rise in temperature, and points to a continuous rise. India will surpass Chinas population size, and both China and India will experience a higher number of middle class people. The growing population size will deteriorate the greenhouse gas because of the burning of the forests 42. It is inevitable for China and India not to avoid the climate changes. The two countries are right beside each other and if one of the countries is impacted by climate change, it is irrevocably going to influence the other. As mentioned before, there will be conflicts regarding the waters in India and China. It concerns rivers such as the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. The two countries are fighting about the ownership to these waters. Because of the melting of the Himalayan glaciers the rivers will continue to rise. The melting is origin from the rise in temperatures, which is caused by climate changes. There is of course enough water at the moment, but in the long run the water will eventually dissipate as the Himalayan glaciers are melted. When there is nothing left of the glaciers there will be no more water to fill the rivers, and that will undoubtedly cause numerous problems for inhabitants whose lives depends on the water. This is a huge problem for both China and India. There is no rightful owner to the waters, but when people are forced in to situations like this they tend to focus on their own interests and indeed ability to survive rather than focusing on cooperation. Instead of helping each other they are fighting each other, and that causes conflicts.
42
James R. Lee, Climate Change and Armed Conflict (Routledge, 2009), 107-8
26

It is not only India and China who cannot agree amongst each other. India also has a huge conflict with Pakistan. Pakistan and India share the same rivers. The two countries were given three rivers each. Because of the climate changes the rivers of Pakistan are drying out, and cannot provide as much water to the people as they used to. It is a shame that the rivers of Pakistan are drying out, but the country is blaming India because they feel cheated by the handing out of the rivers. It is of course not Indias fault that the rivers of Pakistan are drying out, but one might understand Pakistans frustration because the rivers of India are still giving water to the people of India. The rivers of Pakistan are drying out because the Himalayan glaciers are melting and soon they will not be able to feed the rivers water. The Indian rivers are not drying out because they are not as depended on the Himalayan glaciers to provide their rivers water. Furthermore, The Indus Water Treaty provides India with a specific share of the waters, whereas Pakistan does not have such a specific share. Because India still has water, Pakistan blames India for taking water from them, and that causes a conflict between the two countries. Some are afraid that this conflict will escalate into a nuclear war between the countries, which will resolve in mass destruction for both countries. For further explanation we will examine the earlier mentioned treaty closer. The Indus River System - Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen The river flows through enemy states with a rich history of conflict. These states are arid or semi-arid and highly dependent on the river. The upstream state, India, is the economically and militarily more powerful along the river. (Zawahri, 2009, p. 3) The Indus River system could trick the before mentioned possible nuclear war. It is shared by the two riparian (states sharing a river) countries of India and Pakistan. The river system is covering over 1,165,000 sq. km and is one of the major river systems in the world43. It springs in the Tibetan Plateau and is also shared by Afghanistan and China. However, the rocky terrain surroundings minimize their ability to get any advantages of
43
(Zawahri, 2009, p. 3)
27

the rivers. Five out of six rivers tributaries run through the Indian area, to illustrate the situation we have adapted an image from BBC.
Figure 3 Illustration over the Indus River System (http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/indusvalley/images/html/ivl1_physical-features.gif
The essential issue for Pakistan is that the Indus River is the only source of water to bring life to its otherwise arid land. To put this into perspective it is important to note that Pakistan, in essence, is a geographic duplicate of Egypt44, and quite surprisingly the greatest contiguous irrigated land in the world45. From an Indian point of view, the streams of the Indus River, supply the economic foundation for its moderate arid north-western provinces, which have developed into one of Indias new breadbaskets46. As one might be able to imagine, this can turn into a major issue, which was not an issue before the partition of British India in 1947. Naturally it turned into an issue, and was solved by the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) created in 1960, with help from the World Bank after an armed conflict in 1948 and 12 years of disagreement47. The outcome of the Indus Water Treaty was a division of the Indus Rivers between Pakistan and India. India received the three eastern riv-
44
Note: Pakistan is primarily a dessert country with one main river to irrigate the agricultural land (Dyer, Climate change and security: risks and opportunities for business, 2009 (April), p. 22)
45 46 47
(Dyer, Climate Wars, University of Toronto, 2008, p. 24 min) (Zawahri, 2009, pp. 3-4) (Dyer, Climate change and security: risks and opportunities for business, 2009 (April), p. 21)
28

ers, which are quite minute, while Pakistan received the three western rivers, including the Indus, which is the main river48. According to Zawahri studies, India and Pakistan have cooperated in more than 40 years contradictory to literatures expectation of conflict 49 . The cooperation has survived through, what Dyer signifies as, three full scale wars (one pre-IWT-1960) and several lesser clashes50. Zawahri concludes that his paper demonstrates, without being excessively specific, that the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), which is the commissioning part of the IWT, have several mechanisms available to resolve disputes (Zawahri, 2009, p. 17). In the context of Smith and Vivekanandas theory on path ways towards a violent conflict due to climate change, it is noticeable, that Zawahri concludes that the mechanisms of PIC are working. What is also worth noting is that Zawahri does not bring along any futuristic perspectives, but concludes on the reaction on past events, not questioning that his analysis showing that PIC has been functioning so far is correct. Gwynne Dyer has a different approach, because he is questioning whether or not it is going to resolve disputes in the future, while Zawahri conducts that the tools for the future is exiting. Another thing worth observing in differentiating the two scientists is that a great part of Dyers studies rely on prospects of climate change, while that aspect is not included in Zawahris study. Right now and throughout times, the issues concerning the IWT are connected to large common building dams, water channels to irrigate land and hydropower51. To be sceptical it seems to lack some kind of futuristic view. What if water stopped streaming through the river system? Another pressing issue, but one that is used for intimidation, is Indias viability to use the water weapon52. This means that India can close the water supply to Pakistan any time they want. India aired this possibility under a crisis in 2001 and the
48 49 50 51 52
IBID p. 21 (Zawahri, 2009, p. 3) (Dyer, Climate change and security: risks and opportunities for business, 2009, p. 22) Summary of (Zawahri, 2009, pp. 7-16) (Dyer, Climate change and security: risks and opportunities for business, 2009 (April), p. 22)
29

Pakistani reaction was to threat with a nuclear attack. But one might think that the same crisis as using the water weapon could arise due to climate change. According to Chinese studies, the Himalayan glaciers on the Chinese side of the boarder are feeding the Indus River system, retreating with seven percent annually53 due to global warming as well as described in the first section Threats in India due to climate change . In the same part, the possibility of change in the monsoon and precipitation in India, which can contribute to the stability of the river stream pointing at less rain in the summer and more in the winter, is mentioned. As Dyer points out India is less vulnerable to this, because the IWT was formed to give India a share around 40 billion cubic metres annually of the river system instead of a more fair deal aiming at sharing by percentages instead54. At the moment the river system is used by full capacity in the summer and do no longer reach the sea55. As the Pakistani PM said after signing the IWT: The sources of the rivers [Indus River System] are in India and India had made arrangements to divert the waters. Every factor was against us. The only sensible thing to do was to try and get a settlement. It might be the second best, but if we did not we stood to lose everything. (Ayub Khan Pakistani President 1960)56 The question is, can the issues surrounding the Indus River system turn into an armed conflict and what would the outcome be?
53 54 55 56
(Radio, part 2 Climate Wars, 2009, p. 38 min) (Dyer, Climate Wars, University of Toronto, 2008, p. 25 min) (Dyer, Climate change and security: risks and opportunities for business, 2009 (April), p. 22) (Dyer, Climate change and security: risks and opportunities for business, 2009 (April), p. 21)
30

Part 2. Analysing Gwynne Dyers fourth Scenario Northern India, 203657
Summary It is spring 2036 and there is nuclear war going on between India and Pakistan. It has been tricked by the lack of food in Pakistan and people starving, due to scarcity of water in the Indus River System, which irrigates three quarters of the agricultural land in Pakistan. The issue is that India is in need of food as well, and therefore they will not share the amount of water given to them by the International agreement of the Indus Water Treaty from 1960. Both of them insist that the nuclear war is the other sides fault and both are by the book right. The scenario ends with the effects in the region and concludes that Pakistan acquired most benefits of the war. Analysing author-audience relationship - Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen Author - Gwynne Dyer58 Gwynne Dyer was born in St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada, 17 April 1943. Throughout his career he has been deeply connected to three countries, namely Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. He has studied and been a navy reserve in all three countries. Originally, he studied history and holds a Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London. These skills have contributed to a wide-spread work life including teaching at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and Oxford University, being a freelance journalist, columnist and broadcaster. Primarily, his work is related to war and conflicts and his most recent book Climate Wars, has become a praised national bestseller in Canada: Dyer is an accomplished military historian who bolters his extensive knowledge with a rhetorical style that is at once invisible and entirely convincing. (Publishers Weekly) One of Canadas best known defence and foreign policy analysts. (National Post)59
57 58
(Dyer, Scenario four: "Northern India, 2036", 2008) (Dyer, http://www.gwynnedyer.com, 2009), (Lamontagne), (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 212)
31

Furthermore Gwynne Dyer has created three radio programs, in cooperation with CBC RADIO, with the same title which is available from his webpage www.gwynnedyer.com. Last but not least, there are some indications that Gwynne Dyer is creating a series on climate wars due to the fact that his next book is launched in April 2010 titled Climate Wars: The Fight for survival as the World overheats.60 Purpose of the book According to Dyer his interest for conflicts related to climate change started about two years ago. About 2 years ago (properly January 2009) I noticed that the military in various countries, and especially in the Pentagon, were beginning to take climate change seriously I did start to look into this idea that global warming could lead to wars (Dyer, Ideas - Features - Climate Wars, 2009). As Dyer writes in the introduction, the book is an attempt to understand the strategies and politics of possible destructive crises, which may occupy the 21st century. What convinced Dyer to write the book, were climate change impacts on the human civilization, especially concerning food supply and the awareness of climate change security61. On the basis of this we will analyse the author-audience relationship concerning scenario four Northern India, 2036. Author audience relationship By writing a scenario involving a nuclear war, Gwynne Dyer basically aims his story at the world population, questioning human rights and whether or not it can be legitimised. If we move a step further, one could ask if this story is addressed to those who make the decisions, better known as politicians, or the population who elects them. One could ar-
59 60 61
(Dyer, Climate Wars (Ebook), 2009, p. 2) (The Book Depository ) (Dyer, Climate Wars (Ebook), 2009, p. 8)
32

gue that it is mainly addressing the politicians, because there are actions needed to prevent the scenario from happening. Pure geographically, the story aims to those involved, especially India and Pakistan, but also those affected mentioned in the scenario: Bangladesh, Burma and Northern Thailand. To the people of Bangladesh it is rather positive, because they have the chance to leave their country and immigrate, because they are no longer trapped behind a fence. For Burma and Thailand there are hardly any positive experiences due to the millions, who died62 . It seems deeply troublesome, as they do not have any opportunities to prevent this. Within India the scenario particularly attempts to reach the moral obligations of the Growth-First Stonewallers and Progressive Realists based on Dubash theory. They are rather sceptical when faced with International solutions, which probably is the only way to avoid the scenario from happening. One way to address them is perhaps with a small kind of intimidation exemplified with monkeys playing by a nuclear bomb next to a national symbol as the Taj Mahal63. Another intimidating perspective is the communist neo-Naxalite groups gain of power in the eastern India64, these groups have a radical different political opinion than the Growth-First Stonewallers and Progressive realists. Another perspective is the fact conflicts bring about migration. Logically, climate refugees in the scenario may try to flee to surrounding countries. But it is also important not to underestimate the fact that they could try to migrate to the former colonial power, Britain.65 This throws a more International light upon the conflict, if not already examined. As Smith and Vivekananda points outs in their latest publication: Attention to the security implications of climate change is slowly increasing among politicians and strategists in the developed world, but the issue remains the elephant in the negotiating room. Specialists in climate change are not generally well informed about it and nor, very often, are development specialists. At least the
62 63 64 65
(Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 123) (Dyer, Scenario four: "Northern India, 2036", 2008, p. 113) (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 123) (Brown, Migration and Climate Change, 2008, p. 23)
33

latter agree that the poorest will be worst hit by climate change, but they have not resolved how to deal with the issue of fragile states in climate negotiations, and there is little agreement among them on how to pursue development goals in such countries. (Smith & Vivekananda, Climate change, conflict and fragilty, 2009 (November), p. 10) Somehow the scenario and the book as a whole, supplements this lack of knowledge, which is often separated to the militaries security-sectors. Talking of this it could cause the World Bank to consider reforming the IWT. More obvious is that the scenario appeals to the UNFCCC and COP meetings to find a new solution beyond 2012 Kyoto. It is essential to address this issue, but necessary to do so carefully. The potential conflict implications are among the most compelling arguments for rich states to take action against climate change. (Smith & Vivekananda, Climate change, conflict and fragilty, 2009 (November), p. 10) The conclusion of this short analysis is that the scenario is aiming widely to national positions on climate change within India, and moves further on to the interstate issue between the two riparian countries, as well as a regional issue of South Asia. Finally it gives a global perspective in the necessity of making an international agreement on climate change issues, and in this case to avoid violent conflicts due to climate change. Now that we have found out who the scenario is addressing on different levels, the next interesting step will be to examine the argumentation and how Dyer appeals to feelings used in the scenario. Could there be an agenda behind? Argumentation analysis Nanna Srensen To analyze this scenario we have decided to use an argumentation analysis. An argumentation analysis can be used to define if a text is factual or not. Our argumentation analysis is based on an existing model of argumentation analysis66.
66
(Center for Journalistisk og Efteruddannelses)
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Gwynne Dyer, who is the author of this scenario, describes the history very convincingly and he uses both ethics and emotions (Ethos). The scenario has the similar structure as an essay, because it is Gwynne Dyers representation of the outcome of the climate changes. It is an interpretation of what might happen in the future. The scenario contains many historical facts both of what have happened and what is going to happen in the future. The whole scenario is very ethical and emotional, because the Author uses both feelings and facts to describe the conflict between India and Pakistan. The Author uses emotions in this scenario to make it more believable. It is important for this scenario to be believable because it is a prediction of the future. Emotions are used to get compassion from the readers. For example he uses emotions to describe the Pakistani planner who used the Taj Mahal as the destination of a bombing. He describes that the Pakistani planner bombed the Taj Mahal, because he could not afford to care about the building, when he was planning to bomb India67. This shows that the war was ruthless and uncaring, and the two countries could not get emotional when it was regarding the war. The author also wants the reader to feel sorry for the people who lived in the exposed areas. He explains that three million people had even less protection than the Taj Mahal, and the people who survived fled south68. We do not think that the author can write a scenario like this, without using any feelings to describe the future. The whole point of this scenario is to make people aware of what might happen in the future. To describe a scenario you have to use some sort of emotions to catch the attention of the readers. The author also uses tricks of reason. Reason tricks are used to conclude an argumentation instead of actually giving one. One can describe reason tricks as something obvious or as something that is common sense. You would think that there would be no functioning state on either side after all this but you would, of course, be wrong (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 114). This sentence is a perfect way to illustrate a reason trick. He
67 68
(Dyer, Scenario four: "Northern India, 2036", 2008, p. 114) (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 114)
35

makes it clear that one might think, there would not be any functioning state left, and makes it evident, like there is no other way to think this. It was perfectly predictable, and had been widely predicted for decades: first the glaciers will melt, overfilling the rivers every summer and then they will be gone, and the rivers will run dry in the summers. (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 115) This is also a reason trick because of the word perfectly. Perfectly describes the prediction as something every person would know. Everybody knew the prediction of the climate changes, but they chose not to believe it. It was only reasonable for the people to believe the prediction. Neither side would have behaved obstinately if it were still able to feed its people, but the increasingly frequent failure of the summer monsoon was hitting Indian agriculture very hard, and both countries had been suffering for many years from the severe summer flooding of the glacier-fed river systems that rose in the Himalayas (the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra) as the glaciers melted. (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 115) The author is making it clear that the disaster would not have happened if the two countries were still able to feed its people. It is only obvious that the crisis would not have happened if there were food security. Tricks of reason are not the only tricks used in writing. Authority tricks are also widely used. Authority tricks are used by letting an expert stand in place of an argument, and authority tricks are also used in this scenario. The per capita availability of water to Pakistans population had fallen from 5,300 cubic metres a year at Partition to only 1,000 cubic meters annually by 2008, a level that the United Nations defines as critical, but at that point Pakistan could feed itself (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 117). This sentence is an authority trick because the author makes it clear that fall in water is critical, because the United Nations defines it as critical. He also uses The United Nations as an authority trick later on with same argument as before. In terms of water per perAalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization
36

son, Pakistan was only receiving 250 cubic meters a year: one-quarter of the United Nations critical level (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 118). He uses the United Nations again to emphasize the critical level of the water. He makes it seem like if The United Nations states that water has reached a critical level, and that becomes fact on the sole grounds because it is them saying it. I.e. when the United Nations claims something to be true, it must be true as they, an authority figure, believes it to be so. This kind of authority trick is called an expert trick, because the author lets the United Nation figure take the place of an actual argumentation. In his description of this scenario he is also very confident and sure of himself, and he does that by using confidence tricks. It is within a reason trick he sounds confident. You would think that there would be no functioning state on either side after all this but you would, of course, be wrong (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 114). He sounds very confident in his way of making a point that even if you believed something to be right he knew that it was of course the opposite. This text is of course very describing because it is a foretelling of the future. The author uses a great lot of space to describe to the reader what has happened between Pakistan and India, to get an idea of why it has turned out the way it has. He does not really have an opinion of whos right and whos wrong; this means he does not take sides. The author has a lot of statements and his own opinion is also made known in the scenario. Sometimes he sounds like he knows more than the people of India and Pakistan, and also more than the reader. We would call him an all knowing author. This scenario is referring, describing and explaining in the way he tells the story of the future past. Writing a good scenario or for that matter writing a good article, we think it can be of use to make it easier for the readers by using metaphors. Metaphors are used as a picture language and are a way to describe certain thing or elaborate something for the reader. In this scenario Gwynne Dyer also uses metaphors and the metaphors make the text more real. For example he describes the governments as cockroaches69.
69
(Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 114)
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As mentioned above we have analyzed this scenario by using an argumentation analysis model. Based on that argumentation analysis model we think that this scenario is using factual argumentation. We receive information of how the future could be and a reason why it will become like this and that is considered a factual argumentation based on the analysis we have used. This is a scenario of what the future might look like and we think this scenario of the future is durable. The author writes of a worst case scenario, and states this argumentation by explaining how this could have happened. Another way to analyze a text is by using Stephen Toulmins argumentation analysis model70. It is used to analyze a factual text, and we find this model useable to analyze the scenario.
Figure 4 Adapted and translated from Knudsen based on Toulmins theory
An argumentation analysis always contains a claim, a substance and something that supports the substance. This model shows how an analysis of a text combines the three things. The claim is the foundation of the analysis, because it is the view and information of the whole scenario, which the author needs the acceptance of by the reader.71 The
70 71
(Knudsen, 2007) (Knudsen, 2007)
38

substance is what the author uses to state the reason for his claim.72 The support is an elaborating reason, which supports the authors claim and therefore substance. 73 Based on Stephen Toulmins analysis, who is an English philosopher, we believe this scenario claims that Pakistan and India will mostly be destroyed due to a nuclear war between the two countries tricked by the climate changes. The substance to back this claim up is that the climate changes are causing so many changes which will resolve in the rivers drying out and millions of people suffering under horrible conditions, which are caused climate change. In this case the support backs the claim up. The support is the outcome of climate change. The outcome is that people are going to suffer because of the wars that are caused by climate change. Not only are the people in India and Pakistan going to suffer because of the wars, but they are also going to suffer because of famine and sickness. And the support of all this is that it is all caused by the climate changes. We think the meaning of this scenario is to open peoples eyes and get them to start realizing that nothing last forever and that mankind is not invincible. We do not take the powers of the nature seriously. To secure the future we have to work together as a team to make the world a better place, and if we do not realize the world is in trouble soon, it is going to be too late. This scenario shows us that terrible things could happen because of the climate wars. According to this scenario the situation between India and Pakistan ended in a nuclear war, and even though it was a Pakistani victory both of the countries lost in the climate war. This scenario can be avoided if both India and Pakistan try to secure the future by developing their cooperation. The earth is the most valuable thing we have, and instead of killing it we have to nurture it. As explained, Dyer has used different tools to deliver his message through a rather factual text. However, since we know that Gwynne Dyer has obtained his information mostly from soldiers and environmental experts and not so much from reading, it is necessary to examine if the facts the scenario rely on are right or wrong?
72 73
(Knudsen, 2007) (Knudsen, 2007)
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Analysis of the main facts - Marie Louise Gammelgaard Larsen In this chapter we are going to compare the data or facts Gwynne Dyer uses in his scenario with some available scientific data. Our purpose is primarily to examine whether or not Gwynne Dyers scenario is based on correct information. In addition to this we will try to outline, which part of information the author has left out of his scenario, and why. The scenario is based upon an imaginary beginning and an imaginary ending, which constitute the scenario. The data Gwynne Dyer uses is concentrated in the middle section of the scenario from page 115 to 118; therefore, our analysis will be focused on the main data used in these pages. After having described the scenario status of India and Pakistan in the year 2036, Gwynne Dyer begins stating the historical background and why it ended up the way it did. He argues:There were well over two billion people in the Indian subcontinent by 2036 (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 115). The Indian subcontinent consists of India, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh along with parts of Pakistan. In the year 2008 there were 1.147 billion people in India, with an annual rise in population of 1.6 percent, this would equal 1.7889 billion people population in India in 203674. The population in Bhutan in 2008 was 682,00075, In Nepal (2006) 25.886737 million, in Sri Lanka 21.324791 million76 and in Bangladesh 151 million77. If we add these numbers to the estimated population of India by 2036, it equals 1.987 billion people. It is important to note that here the increase in the population of Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh is not considered along with the part of Pakistan. Therefore we can conclude that Gwynne Dyers argument of that there should be well over two billion people in the Indian subcontinent by 2036, should indeed be true. However, we know that there are several unpredictable factors influencing population growth such as birth
74 75 76 77
We have made a quick calculation on our own to get to this number. (Encyclopadia Britannica, 2009) (Inforplease.com, 2009) (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, 2009)
40

number, epidemics and other sicknesses and the discovering of new cures of deadly sicknesses. In the next quotation, Gwynne Dyer states the importance of the Indus River, seen from a Pakistani point of view: At least three-quarters of Pakistans food was grown on land that was irrigated by the Indus river system. It was indeed the largest single area of irrigated land in the world. And by 2036, the Indus system was running on empty. (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 115) In Pakistan, the watershed irrigates 80 percent of Pakistans 21.5 million hectares of farmland, through the worlds largest irrigation network78. Somewhere around 75 percent of the food is grown on land irrigated by this network 79. Almost 90 percent of the water in the Upper Indus River Basin comes from glaciers in the Himalayan and Karakorum mountains80. The 3,000-kilometre-long river, which the population and economy of Pakistan depends upon, is slowly dying out due to the melting of the Tibetan and Himalayan glaciers and building of dams and barrages upstream81. There is insufficient data to say what will happen to the Indus, but we all have very nasty fears that the flows of the Indus could be severely, severely affected by glacier melt as a consequence of climate change, and reduced by perhaps as much as 50 percent every decade. (David Grey, the World Banks senior water advisor in South Asia) 82 This quotation supports the statement by Dyer, that the Indus system is running empty. Five of the six rivers that eventually feed into the Indus System rise in Indian-controlled territory (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 115). India is an upstream country and has control
78 79 80 81 82
(Waslekar, 2005) (NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FACILITY PROJECT DOCUMENT, 2003) (International Development Research Center, 2001) (International The News, 2009) (Wheeler, 2009)
41

over five of the six rivers, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Jhelum and Chenab83. Partition in 1947 left most of the headwaters in Indian hands, while well over four-fifths of the farmers who depended on the water lived in the new state of Pakistan (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 116). Partition in 1947 left the headwork to India84 while the canals ran through Pakistan, out of 26 million acres of land irrigated by the Indus canals, 21 million acres lay in Pakistan85. several of the rivers had their headwaters in the state of Kashmir, itself a disputed territory and the scene of the first Indo-Pakistani War (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 116). The base-source of water of all the rivers flows from Indian Held Kashmir.86 India briefly interrupted the flow of water from its side in April 1948 in an attempt to force a new agreement, but there was no open conflict over the division of the waters and, after a dozen years of on-off negotiations, the two countries signed the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960. (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 116) In 1947, Pakistan agreed to pay for the continued flow of water from Sutlej and Ravi rivers which flow through India. After the expiration of this agreement in April 1948, the East Punjab Government in India interrupted the supply of water to Pakistan. 87 On May, 4, 1948 India and Pakistan signed a new agreement. In this agreement India agreed to supply water to Pakistan, but it was also agreed that Pakistan should build its own irrigation resources. It was therefore agreed that India would gradually reduce and ultimately stop the supply of water to Pakistan. Later in this agreement, however, Pakistan got the right to an un-interrupted supply of water from Indian rivers88. This interrupted the Indian plans for the construction of new dams and canals, which were to provide irrigation facilities to the dry land of East Punjab and Rajasthan. Pakistan wanted to
83 84 85 86 87 88
http://www.jammu-kashmir.com/insights/insight20060601a.html (Encyclopadia Britannica, 2009) http://www.jammu-kashmir.com/insights/insight20060601a.html (Khan, 2009) (Jayapalan, 2000, p. 37) IBID
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keep the agreement signed in 1948 and demanded that the dispute should be referred to The International Court of Justice, this demand was rejected by India89. In March 1952, Eugene Black (President of the World Bank) offered mediation between India and Pakistan for settling the canal water dispute. It took six years of negotiations before the two countries accepted a draft treaty in 1959. It took sixteen more months for finalizing the Indus Water Treaty, which was signed the 11th of September 196090. It was a rough-and-ready division of the resource, mediated by the World Bank, that gave the three eastern rivers (Sutlej, Ravi and Beas) to India, and the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to Pakistan. This gave Pakistan over four-fifths of the total flow since the western rivers were much bigger (out of 216 billion cubic metres of water in the system, the three eastern rivers contained only 40.7 billion). (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 116) The Indus Water Treaty gave India the full right to exploit the waters of Sutlej, Ravi and Beas, and gave Pakistan the rights to use the waters of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab 91. The three eastern rivers which were given to India carried 20 to 25 % of the total flow of the Indus Basin, whereas the three western rivers given to Pakistan carried 75 to 80 %92. India got the right to take enough water from the Jhelum and Chenab rivers to irrigate some 200,000 hectares of land. But Pakistan received substantial payments from India, supplemented by a large amount of foreign aid, to build new canals to redistribute water more efficiently among the western rivers (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 116). While the Indus Water Treaty gave India full right to use water from the eastern rivers, it also allowed limited irrigation use of water from the western rivers earmarked for Pakistan. However, the treaty barred India from interfering with the water of these rivers ex-
89 90 91 92
(Jayapalan, 2000, p. 37) (Jayapalan, 2000, p. 37) (Jayapalan, 2000, p. 37) http://www.jammu-kashmir.com/insights/insight20060601a.html
43

cept for domestic and non-consumptive use, limited agriculture use and limited use for generation of hydro-electric power. The treaty also barred India from storing any water from the western rivers, which would result in a reduced flow in water to Pakistan93. The Treaty required India to pay a fixed financial contribution, to the building of canals in Pakistan, on $62 million, in ten annual payments94. But population grew, especially on the Pakistani side, where the 34 million people of 1951 had multiplied to 170 million by 2008 (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 117). In 1951 the population of Pakistan was 33.74 million95 and in 2008 the population had grown to 172.8 million people96. The per capita availability of water to Pakistans population had fallen from 5,300 cubic metres a year at Partition to only 1,000 cubic metres annually by 2008, a level that the United Nations defines as critical (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 117). Freshwater availability in Pakistan has fallen from 5,200 cubic meters per capita in 1947 (the year of Partition) to less than 1,000 cubic meters in 200997. That puts Pakistan under the UN required minimum threshold, and in the category of desert countries98. Pakistans population still reached 290 million by 2036. (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 117). As described before, Pakistan had a population on 172.8 million people in 2008. According to the Foreign Ministry of Denmark, Pakistan had a growth in population on 2.1% in 200699. If we take this growth rate to calculate an estimated population in 2036, we get approximately 309.2 million people. Therefore Gwynne Dyer is likely right in assuming the population in Pakistan will have reached 290 million by 2036, even with the fall in growth rate he also talks about in his scenario.
93 94 95 96 97
(Palejo, 2009) (International The News, 2009) www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/pco/statistics/pop_by.../pop_by_province.html (Rosenberg, 2008) (International The News, 2009) (NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FACILITY PROJECT DOCUMENT, 2003) (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, 2009)
98
99
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Successive Pakistani governments did all the right things to alleviate the problem: barrages and dams were built to retain winter runoff for the summer, the irrigation canals were lined to reduce water loss through seepage, and drip irrigation systems were widely installed for the final delivery of water. (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 117) According to a report on Pakistans water resource strategy there is much need to be done for Pakistan to be able to maintain the flow of water100, which the Indian populations livelihoods depends upon. In the report there is a number of frightening facts. A large part of these facts has to do with the lack of Pakistan doing the right things. First, the groundwater of Pakistan has been over-exploited in many areas, and its quality has worsened. Even though there is clear evidence for this, tens of thousands of additional wells are being put into service every year101. Secondly, there is an inadequate knowledge base: In a system so massive and complex, the generation and smart use of knowledge are the keys to adaptive management (Pakistan Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy, 2005, p. 13), but yet there has been very little investment in establishing such a knowledge base. Third, much of the water infrastructure is in poor condition, even though Pakistan has been investing an enormous amount of money, the infrastructure is now crumbling, mostly because of age. No Asset Management Plan for any of the major infrastructures has been made102. Fourth, the quality of project implementation is poor: Factors that affect implementation include: weak implementation planning and management, litigation related to land acquisition, non-compliance with agreed resettlement and rehabilitation programs, lack of attention to environmental issues, delays in procurement, delays in preparation of accounts and carrying out
100 101 102
(Pakistan Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy, 2005) (Pakistan Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy, 2005) (Pakistan Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy, 2005, p. 13)
45

audits, and the lack of preparation for transition from construction to operations. (Pakistan Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy, 2005, p. 13) Fifth and finally there is a great need for Pakistan to invest in, costly, new large storage dams. As the Indus Rivers are variable, there is a need for large storage dams, so the supply of water can fit the demand more continuously. However, at the moment Pakistan has a lack of such storage dams in comparison with India and China, even though Pakistan depends most on these103. Of course it is not a simple plan and it raises three important questions; who shall pay for this, what is paid, and how is the money spent? For certain Pakistan needs to make an effort to sustain its livelihood. Otherwise the country is indeed flying blind into a very hazardous future. (Pakistan Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy, 2005, p. 13) After having read the report from the Agriculture and Rural Development Sector in South Asia from 2005, we take the responsibility for concluding that Pakistan has not done all the right things as stated by Gwen Dyer. Of course it is possible that Pakistan will make the required efforts, and Dyer could be talking about future installments, since it is a scenario. However, this raises a very interesting question. Is climate change really the main cause of the decrease in water flows to Pakistan, and is his scenario of 2036 realistic if the right things were really done? The Indus alone accounted for more than half of the total flow off all six rivers in the system, but it was 90% glacier fed (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 117). The Indus river carries approximately 144 billion cubic yards, which is more is more than half of the total supply of water in the Indus River system104. About 90% of the flow in the upper Indus is derived from the melting of snow and glaciers105.
103 104 105
IBID Ibid.,p.xxiii. skal loses (Wagener, 2005, p. 131)
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About India by 2036: its population had grown from 1.1 billion to 1.5 billion (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 118). As calculated in the beginning of our analysis, India should have reached a population of approximately 1,987 billion people by 2036. The three eastern rivers, the Sutlej, Ravi and Beas, relied much less on glacial melt for their flow and still delivered almost as much water as before (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 118). Where the Upper Indus Rivers exist most of glacial melt, a larger share of the eastern rivers comes from rainfall from the monsoon. The two sides also possess nuclear weapons... (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 119). In the latest article by Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen (Two nuclear experts), it is claimed that Pakistan possess an estimate of 70-90 nuclear weapons, whereas India is believed to possess 60-80106. Traditionally, India and Pakistan have identically policy commitments with regard to nuclear weapons. They do not confess a desire to have them and they have denied working to get them. The two have been racing to be last on the nuclear wave, and they have both wanted to blame the other side. Each side insisted on developing nuclear weapons, if the other side did so 107. It has been claimed by scientist that India and Pakistan is currently increasing their quantity and quality of their arsenals108. To conclude on the facts stated in the scenario by Gwynne Dyer, we can now say that they are consistent with most of the scientific data we found to substantiate the realism of his scenario. However, we found some facts that Dyer did not take into account when writing his scenario. Here we are especially referring to the statement that Pakistan did all the right things to avoid the problem. Since Pakistan at the current moment has not done all the right things, and no one can predict exactly how much they will do to prevent the scenario from happening, it is impossible to say whether or not this scenario could become a reality. If Pakistan chooses to invest in protection of the water system etc., we
106 107 108
(Norris & Kristensen, 2009) (Schulman, 1987) (Norris & Kristensen, 2009)
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believe that it is unrealistic that the scenario could come true in the year of 2036. But could it be a realistic scenario in the distant future? The next section will examine this question. Analysis of the scenario is it realistic? - Maria Kristiansen In the following section we will take a look at Gwynne Dyers scenario. We will use Anheier and Katzs methodology to analyze the scenario. We will also try to answer the question of whether or not this scenario is realistic. There are two different ways of predicting the future; forecasting and the use of scenarios. Both of them are used in connection with issues of globalization. They are used because of the belief that if we want to understand globalization, we have to look beyond all the scientific data as well as the analysis.109 Both methods are trying to take a look into the future but this is based on different approaches. Forecasting is about looking at the past through mathematical techniques. Forecasting is based on data where as a scientific scenario is not. A scenario is like a story rather than a prediction. It tries to connect the present realities to a feasible future. This method is not so much based on data but it does look at present events, even though this method is not as precise as forecasting, it does show a somewhat realistic and plausible guess of the future.110 The way that Dyer has tried to predict the future is undoubtedly by making a scenario and not a forecast. This we can see from the very beginning where the first line is The surviving monkeys still play amid the ruins of the Taj Mahal. (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 113). When dyer begins in this way, he shows from the beginning that this is a scenario and not a forecast. A forecast would likely have started with some statistics to show that it is based on science. Anheier and Katz have made a list over the common steps in scenario planning. We will try to go through some of these, to analyze how this scenario is built. According to Anheier and Katz, the first step in making a scenario is to decide the key question to answer in
109 110
(Anheier & Katz, 2009, p. 238) (Anheier & Katz, 2009, pp. 238-239)
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the analysis.111 We believe the key question in this scenario, is what is going to happen to India (and Pakistan) if nothing is to be done to prevent the climate changes. The reason that we why believe this is the most important question, asked by Dyer, is because this conflict between India and Pakistan in this scenario is caused by climate change. The way that climate change appear in the scenario:112 First the glacier began to melt faster than normal (rise in the temperature) so that the river system rose much more than normal every summer. Then the glacier melted fully and therefore the summer flooding turned into draughts and every summer the river system would run dry. This meant a huge scarcity of water but somehow they managed. Until the summer monsoon also began to disappear more and more often. This was a serious hit on the agriculture and they became unable to produce enough food. There has also been a huge increase in the population which only means an even bigger lack of food. All these events and factors meant that both India and Pakistan needed more water to produce food and therefore this conflict over the water became a war instead. Another step in making a scenario is setting the time and the scope of the analysis. When doing this, one have to take into consideration, what changes that have already occurred and how fast.113 We assume that, when Dyer wrote his scenario, he looked at past and present events in connection to climate changes in India. By looking at these events and the facts, he made a realistic guess on how far into the future his scenario could come true. The scenario takes place in Northern India in 2036.114 Most scenarios predict at least five to ten years into the future, because it is not realistic that major changes will happen in only one or two years. Often scenarios are about finding out, what major changes that might occur in the future.
111 112 113 114
(Anheier & Katz, 2009, p. 245) (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 115) (Anheier & Katz, 2009, p. 246) (Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 112)
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The driving forces include economic, political, technological, legal and social trends on both the national and international level.115 The main drivers in this scenario are, first of all, the different changes in the climate which is mentioned above. However, there are other drivers that are important to the scenario such as population growth. In the scenario there has been a high population growth which is now declining. This is an important driver, because it is partly therefore they have problems producing enough food. Another really important driver is the conflict, over the IWT, between India and Pakistan. A good scenario Anheier and Katz have set up some criteria of what a good scenario contains. First they say that scenarios have to be engaging, interesting, challenging and credible, as well as logically consistent with the known facts. (Anheier & Katz, 2009, p. 245) We will try to examine Dyers scenario to find out if it contains some of these criteria. We find this scenario very interesting and engaging. What is really interesting is to determine whether or not the scenario is credible. Thus we will try to examine whether or not this scenario is realistic. We have looked closely at the numbers from Part 1: Threats in India due to climate change, and found that the scenario is logically consistent with the facts. Dyer claims that there is a possibility of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan due to climate changes. The climate changes that lead to the war is as we mentioned before; A rise in the temperature that leads to the glaciers in the Himalaya are melting and that the summer monsoon began to disappear, consequently causing a lack of water, which hit the agriculture hard and destroyed the food security. If the scenario should be realistic all the changes in the climate also need to be realistic. As a result of the analysis in the last section, where we compared the facts stated by Dyer and the available scientific data, we concluded that most of these facts were approved by scientists and other reliable sources. This proves Gwynne Dyer right, when it comes to the climate issues stated in his scenario. However, he has might set the time a bit too early, according to IPCC, the serious rise in
115
(Anheier & Katz, 2009, p. 246)
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the temperature will not happen until the 2080s (Threats in India due to climate change). According to ICIMOD the glaciers will or could disappear within the next 50 years (Threats in India due to climate change). Also the scientists at IIT Delhi warn that the decline in the summer monsoon will happen by the 2050s (Threats in India due to climate change). So all the facts about what will happen to the climate seems very realistic, but the time setting on when it will happen seems a bit unrealistic. Especially if we take the issue mentioned in the latest section into consideration, where Pakistans lack of doing the right things to prevent the scenario from happening is explained. Maybe it would be more realistic, if he had sat the time of the scenario to about 2080. However it is possible, that he made the time setting a bit too soon intentionally. The reason why he might have done this could be to scare people, so that we, and not least the worlds governments, will take the problem of climate change a bit more seriously. Why predict the future? The most obvious reason is a try to reduce the number of crises or maybe even avoid the crises totally.116 But this is not the only good reason for making forecasts or scenarios. Scenarios and forecasts help defining problems by selecting out certain aspects. It helps recognizing the problems but if it is done poorly it can mean a missed or reduced chance to deal with the problem.117 In general, inventing the future is a good thing, because it means that one discovers problems and ways to avoid them. It can also help people to realize that a problem may be more serious than first assumed. Do the scenarios help in the fight against climate change? There are probably made many hundreds of scenarios on climate change in the last few years. But do these scenarios do anything good or do they just scare people for a short amount of time and are then forgotten? Images of melting glaciers and drowning polar
116 117
(Brewer, 2007, p. 165) Brewer, Garry, 2007: p. 165.
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bears hardly help. Indeed they may even literally contribute to the apocalyptic mood (Brewer, 2007, p. 157). This clearly shows that some are against all the bad scenarios and the exaggerated movies, articles etc. But we believe that even though the scenarios might be exaggerated they actually can do something good in the fight against climate change. Even though scenarios are stories, based on how the world has already reacted, there is a possibility that they will come true. As a result of this, we think that it is a good instrument for someone to try and scare us. If not, we might not do anything about this and other similar issues due to climate change, which we will explore in the next section of our project.
Part 3. The perspectival section climate issues in greater optics

Climate wars: the possibility of armed conflicts induced by climate changes Jeppe Blumensaat Rasmussen Conflicts induced by climate change have been a major part of our project so far. We have seen how a regional scenario involving Pakistan and India can be translated into the global perspective. To include a broader perspective we will outline the importance of taking conflicts involving climate change seriously. We will examine how they become a part of security measurements and state a possible solution. The importance of understanding climate change in relation to conflicts is not a new phenomenon. climate change as a cause of conflict is not a revolutionary idea; it is evolutionary. (Lee, 2009, p. 166) Worth noticing is that Lee is referencing to his studies, showing that climate change in history has induced conflicts involving Neanderthals, Aryans, Mayans, Vikings or Anasazi. In the modern world, the military organisations around the world are questioning, what climate change can lead to especially related to security measures and armed conflicts.118 In the American Army, the security question relating to climate change is taken very seriously, demonstrated by the release of the report National Securtiy and Climate Change, in April 2007119. Nonetheless, it diverged from the,
118 119
(Dyer, Climate Wars (Ebook), 2009, p. 8) IBID. p. 19
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at the time, current American conservative republican governance. On the other side of the Atlantic is a powerful view aired by John Ashton, UK Climate Change Representative: There is every reason to believe that as the twenty-first century unfolds, the security story will be bound together with climate change The last time the world faced a challenge this complex was during the Cold War. Yet the stakes this time are even higher, because the enemy is now ourselves, the choice we make. (Lee, 2009, p. 1) In other words this century may be a hot war due to global warming as opposed to last centurys the Cold War. The security aspects might be as high as under the Cold War, Ashton suggests. Already, there is a high risk around the globe for armed conflict induced by climate change. According to Smith and Vivekananda, 2.7 billion people worldwide are in a possible high risk of a violent conflict caused by climate change, interacting with economic, social and political problems.120. They are located in 46 countries around the globe seen on this map (red):
120
(Smith & Vivekananda, 2007, p. 3)
53
Figure 5 International Alerts map over knock-on consequences of climate change separated to red as high risk of armed conflict and yellow as high risk of political instability.
121
As one might observe the two participants, India and Pakistan, from the analysed scenario, are part of the red area on map. It also worth noticing, that all countries at risk is a part of the developing world. The main reasons for the possible conflicts are the struggle for water which is closely related to agriculture. Furthermore energy, health, urbanization and migration can trick a possible violent conflict, which is shown in: Table 2 Theory on connections between physical consequences of climate change and the knock-on socio political consequences of climate change. Adapted from Smith & Vivekananda. As mentioned before water is a key resource for agriculture, industry and daily use, and climate change will considerably affect its supply. 500 million people around the globe experience chronically shortness in the water supply. The IPCC expects these records will increase due to climate change affects on water levels that depend on precipitation and glacial melting122. Our analysed scenario is closely related to this, and to keep the perspective on the same path, we have sought inspiration from the American Security Pro-
121 122
(Smith & Vivekananda, 2007, pp. 18-19) (Smith & Vivekananda, Climate change, conflict and fragilty, 2009 (November), p. 8)
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ject Climate Security Index. In their study, they have determined the most vulnerable areas to potential water conflicts, which are fairly similar to those in our analysed scenario. In addition to the conflict over the Indus River system, they have predicted four other high risked potential conflicts123. In the Middle East there is a potential water conflict between Israel and the surrounding Arab countries over the Jordan River. The issue concerning the river is that there have been made few agreements and that there are a lot of stakeholders. A bit south in Africa, there is a possible conflict over the Nile Basin concerning ten African countries, where Egypt is the dominant one. So far problems have been solved through the Nile River Imitative, but the conditions are developing to become even worse, because of desertification124. Worth conducting to this possible international river dispute is the regional Darfur conflict in Sudan, which UN secretary Ban Ki-Moon, has stated as a violent conflict heavily affected by climate change, instead of an ethnic conflict between Arabs and Black farmers125. Further south in Africa, the Zambezi river basin and system are crucial for irrigation, which farmers and national governments surrounding the system are increasingly dependent on. Both parts are highly interested in transferring water to drought areas. A possible conflict is relying on individual countries ability to cooperate. In Southeast Asia, there is a similar issue to the issue of the Indus River system. The conflict is over The Mekong River sources in the Tibetan Plateau as well as the Indus. The differences are that China is the upstream country and the countries in Indochina (Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam) and Thailand are those affected downstream. There is also a possible conflict involving the Ganges and Brahmaputra between India and Bangladesh. What separates the two cases is that the Indus waters have a treaty, where as India and Bangladesh, who shares 54 rivers does not. Even more important is the possible migration from Bangladesh to
123 124 125
(Finel & Bartolf, 2009, p. 29) (Smith & Vivekananda, Climate change, conflict and fragilty, 2009 (November), p. 8)
(Brown & Crawford, Climate Change and Security in Africa: A Study for the Nordic-African Foreign Ministers Meeting, 2009 (March), p. 5)
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India due to climate changes impacts on Bangladesh, especially concerning floods and sea level rise. As we have noted the issue of possible armed conflict due to climate change is a global and not just a regional issue. Often, climate change affects already fragile states, such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sudan and most of the Sub-Saharan Africa. There is a major security measurement involved and great importance in preventing violent conflicts induced by climate change. But what solutions exist to avoid this issue? Solutions to avoid armed conflicts induced by climate change When finding a solution to armed conflicts induced by climate change, it is important to acknowledge the importance of the societys construction, as Smith and Vivekananda suggest in their latest report for International Alert: 1. Adaptation to climate change needs to be conflict-sensitive. In fragile and conflictaffected contexts, all interventions must respond to the needs of the people, involve them in consultation, take account of power distribution and social order, and avoid pitting groups against each other. 2. Peacebuilding needs to be climate-proof. For example, post-conflict reconstruction and the reintegration of ex-combatants into their villages must take account of the long-term viability of the land and natural resources available for lives and jobs. 3. Shifts towards a low-carbon economy must be supportive of development and peace. For example, there must be no repeat of the rapid move to biofuels, which not only reduced food availability, but also threatened to drive millions of people off the land. 4. Steps must be taken to strengthen poor countries social capacity to understand and manage climate and conflict risks. 5. Greater efforts are needed to plan for and cope peacefully with climate-related migration.
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They finish by stating that violent conflicts due to climate change is closely related to the fact that it may produce mass migration. In the next section we will examine the issue of climate refugees. Climate refugees, an important issue induced by Climate change
In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that the greatest single impact of climate change could be on human migrationwith millions of people displaced by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and agricultural disruption. (Brown, Migration and Climate Change, 2008, p. 9) The most common analyses estimate that more than 200 million people around the world will have to give up their homes by 2050, because of climate change126. This belief is shared among many, from the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change to reports written for IPCC127. Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable regions to climate changes. Asia is vulnerable because of its low lying coastal zones and is highly exposed to tropical cyclones. Water scarcity is of course one of the main concerns in regard to the populations possibility of sustaining their lives in their respective countries. The main issue is whether or not the population is able to feed itself128. As earlier described in this paper, water scarcity has major impacts on the agricultural levels, which constitutes most of the means of subsidence for the people in Asia. Already, it has been predicted that a country like India, will be unable to feed itself in some years time if the water scarcity intensifies129. Another issue is economy. As countries like India get most of their GDP from agriculture, global warming could lead to destruction of infrastructure, government and ultimately the end of the soul of the countrys existence.
126 127 128 129
(Brown, Migration and Climate Change, 2008, p. 9) IBID. p. 11 (Hulme, Biermann, & Boas, Climate Refugees: Cause for a New Agreement?, 2008, p. 10) IBID. p. 10
57

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in Asia to climate change, the number of climate refugees just from Bangladesh might outnumber all current refugees worldwide.130 Water scarcity and drought will also affect millions of Africans. Already, African countries experience severe problems of finding water. Presently, fourteen African countries experience water scarcity; this may increase to 25 countries by 2030. Africa is also vulnerable to rises in sea level, especially in the river deltas of Egypt and Nigeria 131. In Latin America, millions of Guatemalans and Mexicans are facing increasing droughts, and in Venezuela and Uruguay, thousands of people are living in areas with high risks of flooding. Water scarcity, due to the melting of glaciers in the South American Andes, may affect 50 million people in 2050, including larger cities such as Ecuador, La Paz, Bolivia, Lima and Peru132. Climate change has its impact on places all around the world. Some countries are more vulnerable than others, as the examples mentioned above. It is impossible to predict exactly how the world will be influenced in the future, as numbers in analyses are only estimates. Therefore, it is also difficult to say exactly how many climate refugees there will be in the future, where their affected areas will be and where their destinations will be. It is also difficult to put climate refugees in a box, as there are many factors involved to force people to leave their homes. The use of resources; deforestation, agricultural use, and drainage contributes to the problem. The effect of all this will also vary considerably from place to place, depending on factors such as health systems, economy, infrastructure and coastal protection. If a country for example has a well developed health system, the impact of diseases created by climate change, would be of much less significance than in a country with no health system, and it could possibly prevent people from giving up their homes.
130 131 132
IBID. p. 10 (Hulme, Biermann, & Boas, Climate Refugees: Cause for a New Agreement?, 2008, p. 10) IBID. p. 11
58

In Figure 6 Conceptual model of the influence of climate change on migration through flooding adapted from , there is a good example of just how complex the process from climate change to migration is, and it shows some of the main factors in the process. Figure 6 Conceptual model of the influence of climate change on migration through flooding adapted from concentrates around flooding. Figure 7 Conceptual model of the influence of climate change on migration through sea level rise adapted from , again shows a good example of the process; here it is concentrated around sea level rise. It is important to note that the arrows do not signify how strong or weak influence they represents.
Figure 6 Conceptual model of the influence of climate change on migration through flooding adapted from (PerchNielsen, Bttig, & Imboden, 2008)
133
133
(Perch-Nielsen, Bttig, & Imboden, 2008, p. 378)
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Figure 7 Conceptual model of the influence of climate change on migration through sea level rise adapted from (Perch-Nielsen, Bttig, & Imboden, 2008)
Destination? It is generally believed that climate refugees are moving from the developing countries to the developed countries. In reality this is not the case, as most climate refugees are expected to remain within the borders of their home countries. People that have already experienced nature from its worst side have tended to move to a place within short distances from their original homes. As an example, a study in Bangladesh investigated displacement induced by river bank erosion, which showed that 60 percent of the contestants had been displaced at least once in their lifetime, and of them approximately 98 percent had moved less than five miles away134. There are numerous examples like this to find in the report Exploring the link between climate change and migration. Even though most of the climate displacement will take place within borders, there has also been some migration to Europe from Mexico and Africa. In the future, several studies foresee large migration flows from the sub-Saharan Africa toward the Mediterranean, the
134
(Perch-Nielsen, Bttig, & Imboden, 2008, p. 382)
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Middle East and Europe between 2007 and 2036, and mass migration to the US from the Caribbean Islands and Central America135. Underneath is a table showing the different types of migration. The table is meant to give a better understanding of the dimensions of migration. All in all there are 120 possible interactions.
Environmental processes Time Gradual Sudden Space Local National Global Migration response Time Temporary Seasonal Yearly Permanent
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Space Local Rural to rural Rural to urban Urban to rural International
Table 3 Range of spatial and temporal scales of environment and migration processes
Refugee or migrant? When we refer to people who are forced to leave their homes due to climate changes, the term most often used is climate refugee. However, there are some intergovernmental agencies, such as the International Organization for Migration and the UNHCR, which rejects this term, because of the legal definitions in the post-1945 system. Here the term refugee was defined under the 1951 Geneva Convention as a person who is outside his or her country of nationality or habitual residence and cannot rely on the protection of his or her home state for fear of persecution137. Another widely used term is climate migrant, however, the word migrant has a lot of negative connotations and it tends to imply a voluntary move towards a more attractive lifestyle, which is of course not the case in this matter138. As an alternative, some international agencies prefer the term environmentally displaced persons, which is in line with
135 136 137 138
(Hulme, Biermann, & Boas, Climate Refugees: Cause for a New Agreement?, 2008, p. 11) (Laczko & Aghazarm, 2009, p. 46) (Hulme, Biermann, & Boas, Climate Refugees: Cause for a New Agreement?, 2008, p. 13)P (Brown, Migration and Climate Change, 2008, p. 13)
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the UNHCRs internally displaced persons that carries much less responsibility on the part of the international community139. But is it fair that people who require resettlement for reasons of a well-founded fear of climate catastrophes like hunger, cyclones and flooding receive less protection than others who fear political persecution? This is a general lack on the international political agenda: Forced climate migrants fall through the cracks of international refugee and immigration policyand there is considerable resistance to the idea of expanding the definition of political refugees to incorporate climate refugees. Meanwhile, large-scale migration is not taken into account in national adaptation strategies which tend to see migration as a failure of adaptation. So far there is no home for climate migrants in the international community, both literally and figuratively. (Brown, Migration and Climate Change, 2008, p. 10) The problem is that the number of climate refugees is predicted to exceed the number of all earlier refugees. It is an enormous task, which without doubt will have impacts on the developed countries economy, if we choose to take our responsibility. As Oli Brown concludes: It is clear that the International community has to face up to the prospect of largescale displacement caused by climate change. We need an International recognition of the problem, a better understanding of its dimensions and willingness to tackle it. (Brown, Migration and Climate Change, 2008, p. 41) In our opinion this quotation speaks for itself, and does not deserve commentaries. But exactly what can be achieved on the global level to avoid climate catastrophes?
139
(Hulme, Biermann, & Boas, Climate Refugees: Cause for a New Agreement?, 2008, p. 13)
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How to avoid the scenario and other catastrophes caused by climate changes Maria Kristiansen All of our analysis is showing that the scenario could come true and that climate change is indeed a serious and urging problem. We need to think about, what can be done to prevent this. We believe that first of all it is very important that there is made a global climate treaty at COP15. A climate treaty is the first step towards avoiding climate catastrophes. If the whole world agrees to participate in the fight against climate changes it is a big step. Sadly, we will not be able to comment on the result of the COP 15 in this assignment, but we can look at what they have agreed so far. According to the president of the climate conference, Connie Hedegaard, the negotiations are going well. 140 We have made considerable progress over the course of the first week". Furthermore, according to delegates, there should be some new texts on how to supply new green technologies, like wind and solar power, to the developing nations.141 So it seems like they really are making progress at the climate conference, but there is still a long way to go. A global climate treaty We believe that if the delegates should succeed in making a global climate treaty, the developed countries need to help the poorer countries economy. This will mean that the poorer countries can still concentrate on development, and at the same time also concentrate at the climate. The minister for the environment in India, Jairam Ramesh, has in an interview said that the developed countries need to promise that they will reduce their emission with 25 to 40 percent of 1990 levels.142 The earlier attitude in India has been that India itself will not make any promises of cutting down their emission, as Jairam Ramesh says: Emission of greenhouse gasses is about consumption and life style. In India we have far more recycling than most other countries and we emit less greenhouse gasses than other countries. 143 Lately the attitude towards mitigation has changed. As
140 141 142 143
(Bom, COP President: Progress has been made, 2009) IBID. (From, 2009) IBID.
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we have mentioned in Part 1: Indias phase shifting, Ramesh said that India should show leadership in the fight against climate change instead of positioning itself as a bugbear. As suggested in the article New signals from India? Indias shift on climate politics is due to the possibility of being obtained in the UN Security Council. The reason why India wishes to be a part of the UN Security Council is obviously the powerful position they can obtain.144 India has announced a voluntary target of reducing carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent from 2005 levels by 2020. (Bom, India: No to peaking year , 2009) Lately Ramesh has made it clear that India will appear as a front figure when it comes to climate changes. We would like to demonstrate for the world that we take the fight against climate changes serious. And we are pleased to participate in every dialog about how we can do even more in energy production, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry, and energy efficiency in buildings. (Jairam Ramesh Environmetmental and Forest Minister (From, 2009)) This quote shows that Ramesh and India really is interested in making a global climate treaty. As mentioned above, we believe that it is the developed countries that need to take the first step in the fight against climate change. Actually it seems like the developed countries have realized that. According to an article at COP15s home page, all 27 members of the European Union have agreed on a new agreement. This agreement is that EU has to give 3.6 billion U.S dollars a year until 2012 to help the poorer countries, in the fight against climate changes. They have also agreed to reduce their emissions by 30 percent of 1990 levels by 2020. All these money is supposed to end up in a global 10 billion U.S dollars annual fund. This fund is going to help the poorer countries to adapt to the effects of climate changes until a new climate treaty comes into force.145
144 145
(Bom, New signals from India, 2009) (From, 2009)
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But the Chinese vice foreign minister He Yafei is not satisfied with that. It will be relatively easy for developed countries to come up with a number for the short term for three years but what shall we do after three years?146 Actually, the man does have a point. It is great that the developed countries finally have decided to help the poorer countries but the developing countries are probably still going to need help after 2012. It is a good thing that the developed countries have realized that they have to help the poor countries and realized that they finally take their responsibility. But the agreement on a fund to give money and to reduce their emissions by 30 percent will only stand if other leading countries like Canada and USA also makes a similar commitment.147 This has been the main attitude when it comes to making a climate treaty. As an example, Europe will only give money and reduce their emissions if the U.S also makes a similar commitment. We believe that this is a bad way to do this. Instead each country should take responsibility and try to fight the climate changes, no matter what the other countries do or say. This attitude towards climate changes has led to many years with high CO2 emissions. we have wasted 17 years since the environmental summit conference in Rio in 1992, back when the emission of greenhouse gasses was first discussed. Therefore we should now do what we should have done 17 years ago. It is clear that Ramesh thinks that there has been wasted too much time, instead there could have been prevented some of the climate changes that has already occurred. We agree to that, but we also think that it have actually taken these 17 years to make everybody realize that climate change is an actual problem. Climate changes have not been taken serious but it finally looks like a part of the world has accepted this problem. However, there is still a long way from acceptance to action Some scientists still refuse that humans have impacts on climate change; in the next section we will explore the issue of climate change through the climate critics perspective.
146 147
(Bom, COP President: Progress has been made, 2009) (From, 2009)
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The Climate Changes Critics - Nanna Srensen Not everyone thinks the earth is in trouble because of climate change. There are many scientists who are analyzing climate changes, according to them, climate changes are not caused by humans. According to the documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle148 there is no evidence that climate changes is caused by humans or that they influence the amount of CO2 leaking in the atmosphere, however this is contradictory to what most scientists agree on. It is sometimes very difficult to distinguish who is right and who is wrong. Today the media has a huge effect on people. Some people tend to believe most things they hear in the media, but the information we get through the media are not always right, rather it is at best a subjective interpretation of how, when and what. We are told that the less developed countries are the most affected by climate changes and are suffering by the reduce of their waters. This is of course unfortunate for the less developed countries since they do not necessarily have the means to bear through such times, but according to The Great Global Warming Swindle the scientists do not think the waters are melting because humans are emitting too much C02, but because of normal changes in the climate of the earth. In the past the climate did not shift because of CO2, which some believes is the ground reason for climate change today. After World War Two, the world experienced a rise in the economy, which led to new industrial development, which lead to an increase in CO2 emissions. Even though CO2 emissions increased, temperatures went down. In the last 150 years the average temperature has increased by a half degree and from 1905 till 1940 the earth experienced some of its warmer periods and back then there was amazingly little industry. This shows us that even if the weather is becoming very warm it is not evident that it is caused by CO2. If we are to believe the critics in The Great Global Warming Swindle climate changes and CO2 do not go hand in hand. However, if we were to believe the media of today as well as a lot of scientists, this can evidently not be true. We think it is very hard to form an opinion because we do not know who or what to believe. According to The Great Global Warming Swindle some critics
148
("The Great Global Warming Swindle", 2007)
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believes the whole scenario with global warming is an excuse for scientists to get funding for their research, because without a problem to investigate the government would not invest in climate change research. We do not know if this is true, but we think it makes sense, to some degree at least. Scientists can only get funding for research if there is a problem to fix, therefore they have to make up the problems if none is existing. In 1940, CO2 emissions increased and though they rose temperature fell. If we were to believe these facts then there is no link between the CO2 emissions and the global warming. Ian Clark who is a climate scientist and has studied the temperature of the earth for many years has found a connection between CO2 and the temperature.
Figure 8 ("The Great Global Warming Swindle", 2007)
This graph shows the ice core record from Vodstok made by Ian Clark. It shows that there is a certain pattern between the temperature and CO2. Whenever the temperature increases CO2 will eventually follow. According to Clark CO2 is falling behind the rise in
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temperature and the temperature is a good while ahead of the CO2. This graph states that it is not CO2 causing the warming. IPCC is The United Nations climate panel, where in the worlds 2500 leading scientists are and because of their titles as scientists the world believes their reviews on global warming. However, many of the members of IPCC are in fact not even scientists. Of course they may have some kind of knowledge about climate changes, but they are not necessarily scientifically correct. We think it is wrong for them to call themselves something they are not, since people tend to believe people with a certain status as they are educated within their field of expertise. The main reason why critics do not believe climate changes should be taken seriously is because the climate of the earth has always been changing and it is not until now scientists are blaming CO2 emissions. They believe it is people causing the problems and if nothing is to be done about it, the whole world will suffer from climate changes. According to The Great Global Warming Swindle the amount of CO2 is nothing to worry about and it can certainly not be the reason why the climate is changing. If you take CO2 as a percentage of all the gasses the atmosphere the oxygen, the nitrogen and the argon and so on it is 0,05 percent. It is an incredible small portion. And then of course you got to take that portion that supposable humans are adding which is the focus of all the concern and it gets even smaller. (2007, p. 8 min) According to this statement the amount of CO2 is not as high as we think, and on top of this it is only a small part of CO2 emission that is caused by humans. CO2 are produced whenever we drive a car or when factories are burning waste off or whenever we burn down forests. John Christy, who is a scientist within the field of climate change has written several reports for IPCC and has a theory about greenhouse effects. As some might state the rays of the sun are projected through the atmosphere and are keeping the earth warm. Some of the radiation from the sun is projected back into space and thats where the greenhouse Aalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization
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gases come in. Greenhouse gases are the main reason for global warming because they thicken the ozone layer and keeps radiation from returning to space. This opinion is, according to Al Gore, the traditional way of explaining global warming. According to The Great Global Warming Swindle, humans could not survive without greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases are keeping the earth warm and make the earth livable. What we found consistently is that in a great part of the planet that the bulk of the atmosphere is not warming as much as we see at the surface of this region and that is a real head-scratcher for us because the theory is pretty straight forward and the theory says if the surface warms the upper atmosphere should warm rapidly. The rise in temperature in that part of the atmosphere is not very dramatic at all and really does not match the theories that climate models are expressing at this point. (2007, p. 11 min) According to Al Gores documentary An Inconvenient Truth Christies statement is nowhere near the truth. Al Gore believes the rise in temperature is very dramatic and is the whole reason for global warming. Al Gore, who is the former vice president of the U.S, is traveling around the world to lecture people about climate changes. He believes the world is in great danger and that we should do something about it. He is trying to spread the message and reach deep down in to peoples moral. He talks about how the world will look some years from now. The essential reason for his worries is that the earth experience floods in places where no one expects it. For example the memorial for September 11 will lie flooded due to the melting of ice around the globe. In fact people are already suffering under the melting of the ice. Al Gore makes some excellent points throughout his documentary. To illustrate how the ice is melting, he shows the audience some pictures of Kilimanjaro, glaciers, Himalaya and so on. The pictures shows how the different places used to be filled with ice and snow, but more recent pictures shows that the snow and ice are almost gone. As we know by now, Pakistan and India are suffering from global warming. But it is not only humans who are suffering, but animals as well. Polar bears are drowning because they have no ice to rest on. Some of them have to swim more than a hundred kilometers before finding any Aalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization
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rest. We think this is very devastating to hear about, and it makes us want to do something about it. But if it is not caused by humans warming as critics claim, then what can we do? Al Gores documentary An Inconvenient Truth is very emotional. He is very good at catching his audience and is able to influence them. When he talks of global warming he is very good at connecting it with something tragic, and that can be a way for him to make the audience believe in him. Al Gore has the same visions as Gwynne Dyer has in his scenario. The only thing separating the two men is that Gwynne Dyer is only referring to India and Pakistan when it comes to climate changes where Al Gore is looking at the whole world. According to The Great Global Warming Swindle the earths temperature can also be analyzed through spots in the sun. The suns activity and the temperature of the earth can be connected to each other. It was first discovered in 1991, where people started researching sunspots. Through time the suns activity has increased and decreased and whenever the sun either increased or decreased the temperature followed. According to scientists, this shows that it is not CO2 causing climate changes but the sun. It would seem obvious to most people that when the suns activity is at its highest, temperatures will rise. We think this is only logical. However, we believe the climate critics are trying too hard. It seems to us like they are over-analyzing everything just to prove climate changes are not caused by CO2 emissions. As mentioned before, Gwynne Dyer and Al Gore takes very similar approaches. They both share the belief that climate changes are caused by human. The critics are trying to prove that they are wrong and it is as mentioned difficult to determine who is right and who is wrong. The first movie we started watching was Al Gores An Inconvenient truth and that documentary was very interesting and catching, almost sad. It was very sad to hear about polar bears drowning due to climate changes we caused. As mentioned, Al Gore draws upon his audiences emotional level and through that he seems more believable. For example he is referring to his deceased friend and also telling about his sick son, which in actuality has nothing to do with climate changes. Aalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization
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Both sides are analyzing the same things, but see the results differently.
Figure 9 Diagram from An inconvenient truth
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This graph shows exactly the same as the graph made by Ian Clark150. However in An Inconvenient Truth Al Gore is analyzing this graph in exactly the opposite way. He uses this graph to make the statement that CO2 emissions will continue to increase and that temperatures will increase as a consequence of this. According to Ian Clark the CO2 is following the temperature, and not the other way around. It is very confusing to get two sets of information about the same thing and it is hard to tell who is telling the truth and who is not. The whole idea with this perspective is that we cannot tell who is right as we cannot predict the future. It would be easier if we could, but we cannot. Al Gore is trying to predict the future as well as the critics and scientists from the documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle but none of them can be a hundred percent sure of what the future holds for the world. The only message in this section is that we have been given the earth as a gift and it is our responsibility to take care of it.
149 150
(Gore, 2006) ("The Great Global Warming Swindle", 2007)
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The sun, the air, the rivers, the forests, the beaches, the sky and so on is a joy we have been given and we think it is important to be grateful for it every day in our lives. So even though it is hard to choose who to believe, we take the approach of the IPCC Gore. Maybe it is not scientifically proved that climate changes are human caused, but if there is just a small possibility that they are we need to do something about it.
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Conclusion
Through out the process of working with this report we have been confirmed in Koffi Annans quote. According to the quote climate change is not just an environmental issue but an all encompassing threat to peace and security. As examined in the first section, India is highly vulnerable to climate change. There have been major developments in their environmental policy due to this vulnerability. The creation of policies and plans concerning climate change has increased rapidly ending at the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The action plan is the evidence of Indias qualitative shift from a sceptical view to a progressive position on climate change. Climate injustice is closely related to GHG emissions. The developed countries emit far more GHG than the developing countries, and therefore developed countries have a major responsibility of the impacts of climate change. The essential part of the injustice is connected to the fact that the developing countries suffer the most from climate change. A major part of the climate security issue in South Asia is connected to water scarcity. As exemplified riparian states are at high risk, which Indias water disputes with China, Bangladesh and Pakistan demonstrates. The Indus Water Treaty from 1960 is an attempt to prevent conflicts between India and Pakistan, and so far it has functioned. However, the future glacial melt in the Himalayas and in the Tibetan Plateau along with possible changes in the monsoon are a threat towards security between the countries. Gwynne Dyers scenario Northern India, 2036 showed a possible future security risk of the Indus River system involving a nuclear war. The audience of the scenario range wide and it aims locally as well as globally, because of themes such as security, war and migration. Gwynne Dyer uses a broad range of argumentation tricks to increase the reliability and make the scenario seem believable. The scenario is indentified as a factual text, even though it is filled with argumentation tricks. The data used in the scenario are scientific, but there are troubles with the statement that Pakistan performed all the right initiatives concerning the Indus River system. This is a key issue, since Pakistan has not invested in protection of the water system as stated. This leaves the question of realism wide open
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concerning the data-analysis. On the base of all of our analyses, we found that it could be a realistic scenario, but we believe that it is situated to early and needs to be postponed. In the perspective part we will examine how the issue from the scenario can become relevant on a global level. Our studies show that violent conflicts induced by climate change involve major risk to the international security. Worldwide 2.7 billion are at possible risk of a violent conflict due to climate change. We have found suggestions that the future potential climate crises can replace last centurys major security concern: The Cold War. On the issue of climate refugees we found a strong link between climate change and migration. The number of climate refugees is predicted to exceed the number of all earlier refugees, and it is uncertain where the destinations of these can be. At the moment the possible climate refugees are trapped between policies and international agencies refers to them as environmentally displaced persons to avoid responsibility. As discovered in the comparison between the two opponent climate approaches, it is difficult to determine who is right and wrong, especially when they often use the same arguments expressing different results. However, in order to secure the future it is necessary to make a global climate regime that deals with the issues in globalization connected to climate change. We need to take action now!
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Reflections
In this section we will reflect upon our working progresses, methods, flaws and deficiencies. Working progress Our interest for climate change was awaked by the COP15 meeting in Copenhagen. We quickly discovered that climate change reached into far more areas than we imagined, which made it difficult to limit down our starting subject climate change and development. This resulted in many visits at the library involving numerous loans and a lot of different problem formulations. It provided us with a large amount of knowledge on the overall subject, but looking back, the process of getting hold of the right problem formulation have to be speeded up in the next project. The final problem formulation was finished on the second of December, which forced a very intense working progress in the last two weeks. However, long before this point we had already determined in which direction our project should go. Therefore, we had all the knowledge and the describing part of the report done at the second of December. Even though the intense working progress in the end sounds great, it has cost an absence of discussion between group members on the contents in each section. Lack of communication and working separately has induced disputes between group members. Methods In the first part of our report we primarily described the situation in India in connection to climate changes. This part was not causing major problems. To give it a broader perspective and make a clearer connection between the sections concerning conflicts induced by climate change and the climate injustice section we could have implemented Lees theory on Hot and Cold wars Climate change and armed conflict dimensions 151. It could have been relevant to show the differences between possible violent conflicts due to climate
151
(Lee, 2009, p. 14)
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change in the Global North and Global South, and what separates conflict in hot and cold areas from being similar.
Dimensions Climate driver Conflict type Conflict duration Population migration Level of development Driver of conflict Resources Adaptability Hot War Precipitation Contraction Long-term Push Low Desperation General Low Cold War Temperature Expansion Short-term Pull High Opportunity Specific High
Because of the focus on India as a representative for the developing world it was not highly prioritised. The sections in our analysing parts were closely related, concerning the analysis on argumentations, data and realism. The three different analyses have had a tendency to overlap each other. Through out the process we have been aware that there could be other ways to analyse the scenario. It could have been very interesting to compare Gwynne Dyers scenario four Northern India, 2036 with Stephan Faris Chapter Seven An Elemental Kind of Existential Threat: South Asia, Disappearing Glaciers, and Regional Catastrophe from The Consequences of Climate Change, from the Amazon to the Arctic, from Darfur to Napa Valley. In this way we could have compared the future perspectives on climate change seen from a scenario angle and a forecast angle. As noticed in the last section of the analysing part there is quite some differences between the approaches related to forecasts and scenarios. The possible comparison of these two could have produced an analysis with far more varieties. It could also have provided us with a far more humanitarian analysing Aalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization
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approach by exploring the means used in the two different kinds of communications predicting the future. We have been forced to use a lot of reports, WebPages and articles due to a lack of available contemporary literature, which we would prefer to rely on in the next project. Flaws and deficiencies Because of the difficulties in the analysing part we have suffered from a lot of repetitions which caused us to erase a lot. What the report misses are some sections handling and explaining the concept of food security, because food supply have been mentioned a lot and is the basic of avoiding migration and conflicts. There is a great lack of information, explanation and solutions in the section: Solutions to avoid armed conflicts induced by climate change. One major discovery we made just before finishing our report, was a recent debate that started questioning the glacial melt of the Himalayas. The Report, which started the debate, was the Moef Discussion Paper Himalayan Glaciers: A State-of-Art Review of Glacial Studies, Glacial Retreat and Climate Change published by the Indian Ministry of Environment & Forests November 2009. The news reached western Medias more than a month later at the BBC Webpage. The main conclusion of the report is. that glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating abnormally because of the global warming. (page 7) Since we gained this rather radical knowledge conflicting with the IPCC very late in the project, we chose not to implement this information. Overall, we think that we learned a lot from writing this project, especially concerning the construction of a method and planning a working progress. We have gained a lot of experiences by working in the group. All in all we have had many positive and negative experiences with this project. The reflections we have made now, is definitely something we will have in mind, when we are going to write our next project.
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1. Enclosure
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2. Enclosure
Marie Louise Gammelgaard Larsen The original water allocations from Indus negotiations 1953 When the two sides were unable to agree on a common development plan for the basin in subsequent meetings in Karachi, November 1952, and Delhi, January 1953, the Bank suggested that each side submit its own plan. Both sides did submit plans on October 6, 1953, each of which mostly agreed on the supplies available for irrigation, but varied extremely on how these supplies should be allocated (Table 2).The Indian proposal allocated 29 million acre-feet (MAF) per year to India and 90 MAF to Pakistan, totaling 119 MAF (MAF = 1233.48 million cubic meters; since all negotiations were in English units, that is what is reported here). The Pakistani proposal, in contrast, allocated India 15.5 MAF and Pakistan 102.5 MAF, for a total of 118 MAF. (Aaron T. Wolf and Joshua T. Newton, Case Study of Transboundary Dispute Resolution: The Indus Water Treaty)
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3. Enclosure
Example of how the storage system in Pakistan is losing its capacity.
Table 2: Reservoir Sedimentation in Pakistan152
Source: Pakistan Development Forum, Presentation on Planning for Water Resources, by Dr. Shahid Amjad Chaudhry, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, May 2003
152
Der blev angivet en ugyldig kilde.
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4. Enclosure: Process description
In the following we would like to explain how we as a group has functioned and worked together. Furthermore we will explain what we have learned and reflect on what we can do better another time. Communication in the group In the beginning we did not have the best communication in the group. When we said something we assumed that the others understood what we meant. This could sometimes lead to misunderstandings and small conflicts. We have all had some strong opinions and in the start we did not listen to each other. But as we continued we learned to listen to each other and the communication got better. After we solved our communication problems the decisions we made in the group about the content in the report got a lot better too. All members of the group have participated in almost every meeting and have taken this project very serious. Organization in the group The group has been meeting 2 or 3 times every week during the whole process. In the beginning of the process the meetings were about find material to our report and we also discussed the more precise context of the report. Later on in the process the meetings were about delegating the work. The frequent meetings have helped us so that we did not end up in a sidetrack. This has meant that we have not wasted a lot of time on writing something useful. And though we have had frequent meeting we agree that it has not been to many which could have resulted in not getting any actual work done. Cooperation agreement in the group We did not make a cooperation agreement in the group where we discussed how our teamwork and group work should be and what our aim and expectations to this project should be. It would definitely have been a good idea to make a cooperation agreement. It could have prevented some of the misunderstandings and discussions. The group members own learning Aalborg University | English SIS 1st Sem. | Modern World: Issues in Globalization
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We have learned to work as a group and learned to listen to all members of the group. We have realized that it is not enough with only one opinion and that one opinion cannot compensate for every opinion in the group. Furthermore we have learned a lot from each other in the group and we feel that in general the group work process have been positive. Reflections on the group work. An important thing for another project would be to make a cooperation agreement where we agree on the divisions of responsibilities and the precise context of the report. If the group does this, it will help determine where the group member stand in the project and it will prevent conflicts between the group members. Furthermore we believe that it would be a good idea if every member of the group talked about their strengths and weaknesses. This could for example prevent that, a person who finds it difficult to speak up, does not get listened to.
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5. Enclosure - Scenario 4 Northern India, 2036
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References
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2009

Climate Change in India

Climate Change in India 2009

Name: Kristiansen, Maria________________________________

Name: Rasmussen, Jeppe Blumensaat_____________________

Name: Srensen, Nanna_________________________________

Hand in date: 2009-12-16

Name of supervisor: Laura Bang Lindegaard

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

(Varughese, Lakshmi, Kumar, & Rana, 2009, p. 78) IBID. p. 78

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

(Stern & Pachauri, 2009, p. 9 min) (Parthasarathy, 1998, p. 7)

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

PROGRESSIVE REALISTS INDIA AS EXCUSE

PROGRESSIVE INTERNATIONALISTS INDIA AS EXCUSE

E QUITY + CLIMATE EFFECTIVENESS

DOMESTIC AGENDA INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY

GROWTH FIRST STONEWALL

CO- BENEFITS FOCUS AT HOME , DELINK

CO- BENEFITS LINK DOMESTIC AND

ITS OUR TURN!

ITS AN UNFAIR WORLD !

SEIZE THE MOMENT !

Table 1 Three Strategic Indian Perspectives on Climate Change

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

(Centre for Science and Environment, p. 1) (Joshi & Patel, 2009)

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

PHYSICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

KNOCK - ON SOCIO POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Figure 3 Illustration over the Indus River System (http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/indusvalley/images/html/ivl1_physical-features.gif

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

(Center for Journalistisk og Efteruddannelses)

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

Climate Change in India 2009

(Dyer, Climate Wars, 2008, p. 114)

Climate Change in India 2009