2004 IEEE Intemational Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRF'T2004) April 2004 Hong

Kong

Applications of Data Mining Technique for

Power System Transient Stability Prediction
Xu Tao , Student Member, IEEE, He Renmu, Wang Peng, Member, IEEE and Xu Dongjie

Abstract--This paper presents a data mining framework

for the historical data of measurement and simulation units.
Taking example for transient stability prediction, this paper
establishes a data mining flow. The data market of transient
stability is built up by all kinds of data sources. The data
market is convenient for online analytical processing. At the
same time, many model of data mining can be constructed
based on the data market. We can acquire more knowledge
of the power system transient stability. The IEEE 39-Bus test
system is employed to demonstrate the validity of the
proposed approach.
Index Terms-transient stability; data market; online
analytical processing; data mining.

I. INTRODUCTION
ITH the more and more installation of supervisor
wdevices in power systems, it is possible to directly
observe and measure the operation states of power
systems. In order to take full advantage of the information
measured by these devices to predict the transient stability
of power systems, much research has been done by means
of the artificial intelligence technique['-31. However, it is
difficult to use this sort of method directly. The reason is
as follows,
0 finite sample and different data format
A power system is a very complex system of multi-
dimension and nonlinearity. The simulative and
observational system data are obtained by finite sampling,
which come from many kmds of online supervision of the
power system, such as SCADA and EMS. In this instance,
the traditional neural network approaches will suffer from
the difficulty of generalization, and the resulted models
often overfit the data.
0 Inadequate result information
We want to acquire not merely the degree of the
transient stability but also valid, novel and useful
understandable patterns in the simulative and
observational system data.
In order to solve the problems mentioned above, this
paper proposes a data mining model for power system
transient stability prediction. It can take full advantages of
the increasingly complete database in the power
companies and fulfill the demand of transient stability
prediction in power market, shown in Figure 1.
Xu Tao is with thc Departmcnt of Elcctric Powcr Engineering, North
China Electric Power University, Bcijing 102206 China (e-mail:
xutao@ncepubj.edu.cn).
Wang Peng is with the Department of Electric Power Engineering,
North China Electric Power University, Bcijing 102206 China (e-mail:
wangpcng@ncepubj.edu.cn).
Mininghdt
Fig. 1 Mining flow of transient stability
The data mining model for power system transient
stability is composed of data collection, forming data
market and mining engine. The proposed model was test
on a 10-generator power system, and the results
demonstrated the validity.
The description of data collection and data market is
given in section 11 Following that, the data mining
engine will be presented. Result of both data mining
model and the neural network will also be compared.
11. DATAPREPARATION FOR MINING ENGINE
At the beginning of the data accumulation, only
limited observational fault data are available. So this
paper simulates the actual measurement data at first. With
the increase of actual measurement data, we can combine
them together and put through increment study. The data
sets come from many data sources, like EMS, SCADA
and other data sources, which are stored in many different
formats. All of these data sources are practically
independent to each other. For the sake of depositing,
exploring and searching the history data conveniently, this
paper establishes the data market of the transient stability
prediction. The data market is a repository of information
collected from multiple sources by extracting, cleaning,
transforming and loading correlative data for power
system transient stability.
Figure 2 depicts the multidimensional data model,
which exists in the form of a star schema, of power
system transient information. This model is organized
around a central theme which is the mark of system
transient stability degree. This theme is represented by a

0-7803-8237-4/04/$17.0002004IEEE
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2004 IEEE Intemational Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT2004) April 2004 Hong Kong
fact table. The fact table contains the facts name as well as
keys to each of the related seven dimension tables. The
dimension tables consist of operation mode dimension,
fault place dimension, fault reason dimension, fault
clearing time dimension, fault beginning time dimension,
fault mode dimension and control measure dimension.
......
Fault clearing ... ...
Fault clearing
......
......
I
Fig.2 Star Schema of Transient Stability
We can use the on-line analytical processing (OLAP)
tools L41 to master a lot of primary information of power
system transient stability based on the data market and
draw some preliminary conclusion.
111. DATA MINING ENGINE FOR TRANSIENT STABLITY
We can discover interesting knowledge from large
amounts of data stored in power system data market.
Examples include association rule, decision rule and
prediction model etc. This paper only introduces the
prediction model of power system transient stability
because of page limitation.
In order to avoid the shortcoming of the traditional
neural network algorithm, this paper presents a new
model for the transient stability prediction based on
statistical learning theory (support vector machine) ‘’I
integrated with the bagging algorithm 16-’]. Support vector
machine (SVM) operates on the principle of structure risk
minimization. This paper takes full advantages of SVM to
solve the problems such as finite samples, nonlinearity
and high dimensions, and applies the bagging algorithm
(it can reduce the prediction error that may be caused by
the variety of the system structure, fault type and other
unaware factors) to enhance the prediction accuracy and
stability of the SVM model. The steps of the procedure
are as follows.
A. Selection of input and output variables
For SVM-based transient stability prediction, the task
can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem. In order
to enhance the prediction accuracy and avoid the
“dimension disaster”, we should use representative steady
state and dynamic state variables as input variables of
SVM model. According to many references [la3] and
simulation result, this paper uses the following variable as
the inputloutput variables.
0 Input variables x, shown in Table 1,
The rotor angel at the fault clearing time
The kinetic energy at the fault clearing time
The mean value of all the initial rotor acceleration
I 0 Output variable
A case for stability assessment is classified into four
classes according to the difference of critical clearing time
T,,,. Hence the output variable y can range form 1 and 4,
shown in Figure 3. The equation ‘‘y=l” expresses
instability of the power system. The equation ‘‘y=2”
expresses the critical stability. The equation ‘‘y=3”
expresses stability. The equation “ p 4 ” expresses
extraordinary stability.
Fig.3 Partition of stability degree
According to given inputloutput variables, we can
draw the following data set S of q points with input data x;
ER“ and corresponding stability degree y;E R:
s=(xlTl), -- -7 (XiJi),-- * 7 (XqTq) (1)
Now, we can use the data set S to construct the SVM-
based prediction model of the transient stability.
B. Constructingprediction model
The problem of transient stability prediction can be
regarded as a multiclass(4-class) problem. According to
the SVM theory, we can make use of the one-against-the
rest approach to construct a set of 4 classifiers [‘I. The ith
classifier is trained with all of the examples in the ithclass
b=i) with positive labels, and all other examples with
negative labels. The final output is the class that
corresponds to the classifier with the highest output value.
According to above-mentioned method, the ith class
model maps the input x into a higher dimensional feature
space in which a linear classification model is constructed.
Hence the prediction functionJ;(x), i € 11, 2, 3, 4}, of
transient stability is as the following,
nt
F.
&fix) = s i g n ( ~ y ; a ; K ( x , x ; ) + b ) (2)
i=l
.
where p t points { xi,vi}(i= 1,. .,pt) are the given training
data set S’ that comes from data set S. The RBF kernel
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2004 IEEE International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT2004) April 2004 Hong Kong

K(., -) meets the Mercer's condition. The parameter b is A. Data description

offset ['I. The Lagrange multiplier aiis given by, The proposed approach was tested on a 10-generator
test system which is shown in Figure 4. We considered
min 0 =
1
-C
2
P'

i=l
cP'

;=I
cPI
a i a j y j y , K ( x j x j ) - ai
i=l
s.t ai 2 0 i = 1,2;..,pt
-&xiyi =0
i=l
Solving Equation (3) can determine the Lagrange
multiplier ai. If we put the data point x, into the equation
(2), we can obtain the stability degree of the power system
conveniently according to the corresponding J(x)- i E
{ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4). The SVM-based prediction model is
founded on the structural risk minimization principle that
equips the model with a greater ability to generalize.
Iv. IMPROVING THE MODLE STABILITY
In order to enhance the prediction accuracy and
stability, this paper applies the bagging algorithm to
reconstruct the prediction model of transient stability. In
bagging, we take full advantage of the given training data
set and SVM algorithm to construct several sub models
instead of each function J(x), i E { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4}, via a
bootstrap method. All the sub models can be assembled
into the final prediction model.
Input: training set S', train algorithm D , training times T
For i=l to 4
i 185.40000153
Forj=l to T
different faults at random place with the fault cleared at
0.1s and varied the load levels of the system in the range
(3) 0.7- 1.3p.u. (relative to the nominal operating point). In
each load level, we varied the output power of the
generators. By means of the time domain simulation, we
create 2000 samples. Then this paper entered all of the
samples into the data market of transient stability. Using
the on-line analytical processing tools, we can master a lot
of primary information of power system transient stability
and draw some reports. 1400 samples are selected as the
training samples at random, and the other 600 samples are
used for testing.
Figure 5 is the query result of maximal swing angle
distribution with regard to the given data set. According
to the data distribution, we can master lots of primary
information. Because of paper limiting, the other complex
searches are not introduced.
Percentage
30
20
10
n
150.05999756 220.74000549 291.42001
256.08000946
AngleMax50
rPercentaqe 1

Sj=bootstrap samplefiom S'

~y=D(q)
1

j=l

1
Output: Prediction function I%&, i E { 1, 2, 3, 4)

v. SIMULATION RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Testing sample Actual

stability Mil M12 M13 MI

I I I I I

7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1
I
8 I I I l l 1 1 1 1 1 1

As is shown in the Table 2, the ithsample with positive

prediction value corresponds to the prediction model M I ,
and all examples with negative labels express that they do
Fig. 4 IEEE 39-bus system not belong to prediction model MI. So we can conclude

39 1
2004 E E E International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRF'T2004) April 2004 Hong K o n g

Applications to Power System,ISTP'96,Intcrnational Conference,

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VIII. BIOGRAPHIES
Method Accuracy rate of Accuracy rate of testing
training samples (YO) samples (%) Xu Tao was born in China, in 1976. He
This paper 99.2% 98.3% graduate from ShanDong University of
BPN 93.2% 89.7% Technology in 1998, and received his master
GR" 99.6% 95.5% degree from North China Electric University in
2000. He is now working for his Ph.D. degree in
North China Electric Power University in
Beijing. His interests are in the area of power
system analysis, data mining application etc.

the optimization algorithms used for parameter selection

and the statistical measures used to select the "best" He R e t " was born in China, in 1944 She
model. This paper finds a better way to solve this problem graduated from power system & Automation
based on the support vector machine and bagging. The Department of TsingHua University in 1967 She
obtained Ph. D. degree from Lausanne Institute
reliability of the prediction result can hence be greatly of Science and Technology (EPFL) in 1984.
improved. Now she is the professor of North China Electric
Power University in Beijing Her interests are
VI. CONCLUSION power system dynamics, simulation veracity,
dynamic load modeling, deregulation, software
This paper introduces a data mining framework for engineenng, wide area measurement etc
transient stability analysis. The data market of transient
stability is constructed. We can acquire a lot of Wang Peng was born in Henan Province,
P.R.China on November 24, 1973. He received
information based on the finite simulative and Master degree and Ph.D degree from North
observational data. Furthermore, this paper proposes a China Electric Power University (NCEPU) in
new method for transient stability prediction. The 1997 and 2002. Now he is assistant chief of
Power System Control Institute of NCEPU. His
accuracy and stability are improved based on the SVM special fields of interest included electric power
and bagging algorithm. The IEEE 39-Bus test system is system analysis and control, elcctricity market,
employed to demonstrate the validity of the proposed dynamic stability and etc.
approach. Additionally, each system has its characteristic
in many ways. It requires us to gather all the data Xu Dongjie was bom in China, in 1974. He
correlated with transient stability analysis at ordinary graduated from Electrical Engineering
Department of North China Electric Power
times if possible. University in 1996. He obtained M.Sc degree
from (NCEPU) in 2001. Now He is working
VII. REFERENCES tonvards his Ph. D.degree. His research interests
are powcr system dynamics, small signal
[l] Aboytes F and Ramirez R. "Transient stability assessment in stability analysis and control.
longitudinal power system using artificial neural networks," IEEE
Trans. on Power Systems, 11(4), pp.2003-2010. 1996.
[2] Suresh Muknahallipatna and Badrul H.Chowdhury,"Input
dimension reduction in neural network training-case study in
transient stability assessment of large systems," Intelligent Systems

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