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DB Corp
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA OPM (%) PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
2QFY11 301 95 31.6 64 % yoy 17.6 (18.9) (981bp) (37.1) 1QFY12 354 100 28.4 61 % qoq 0.0 (23.1) (657bp) (34.1)
`230 `274
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Print Media 4,219 0.4 307/186 13,103 10 16,937 5,092 DBCL.BO DBCL@IN
DB Corp. (DBCL) reported modest performance on the revenue front and weak performance on the earnings front. The companys top-line growth was driven by a mix of ad revenue growth and circulation revenue growth. On account of new launches in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, earnings for the quarter declined. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. Key highlights for the quarter: For 2QFY2012, the companys top line grew by 17.6% yoy (flat qoq) at `354cr. Consolidated ad revenue for the quarter grew by 15.9% yoy to `274cr. The companys circulation revenue grew by impressive 13% yoy and 5.8% qoq on account of new edition launches in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. DBCL reported a weak set of numbers on the earnings front primarily on account pre-operative expenses of `9.9cr and operating losses on the three editions launched in the above-mentioned states. The company reported a 37.1% yoy and 34.1% qoq decline in its recurring earnings. Recurring PAT for the quarter stood at `40cr. Operating margin during 2QFY2012 fell steeply by 981bp yoy and 657bp qoq on account of new edition losses as well as forex losses. Outlook and valuation: We have revised our earnings estimate downwards considering the higher-than-anticipated increase in newsprint price due to increased circulation, forex fluctuations impact and higher number of loss-making editions. At the CMP, DBCL is trading at 14.9x FY2013E consolidated EPS of `15.5. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a revised target price of `278, based on 18x FY2013E earnings, which is in-line with its historical trading average since its listing. Downside risks to our estimates include 1) any further rise in newsprint prices, 2) competition becoming fierce and 3) higher-than-expected losses/increase in the breakeven period of the new launches.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 86.4 7.2 5.4 1.0
3m
1yr
3yr (4.3) -
FY2010 1,051 10.7 183 283.9 31.5 10.0 23.1 6.4 40.3 30.7 4.1 13.2
FY2011 1,251 19.1 258 41.4 31.1 14.1 16.3 5.1 35.0 31.8 3.4 11.0
FY2012E 1,413 13.0 240 (7.0) 27.6 13.1 17.6 4.3 26.4 28.5 2.9 10.6
FY2013E 1,586 12.2 283 17.9 28.5 15.5 14.9 3.5 26.0 29.6 2.5 8.8
Sreekanth P.V.S
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6841
sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 354 124 35.2 45 12.8 61 17.3 46 12.9 277 77 21.8 7 12 2 60 60 17.0 20 32.9 40 11 (0) 40 18.3 2.2
2QFY11 301 90 29.9 36 12.1 46 15.2 34 11.2 206 95 31.6 4 11 3 84 84 27.9 20 23.7 64 21 (0) 64 18.2 3.5
% yoy 17.6 38.2 24.2 33.7 36.4 34.4 (18.9) 77.7 15.7 (38.9) (28.4)
1QFY12 354 118 33.5 39 11.1 57 16.3 38 10.9 253 100 28.4 3 12 4 90 90 25.3
% qoq 0.0 5.2 15.3 6.7 19.3 9.2 (23.1) 149.0 5.6 (46.6) (33.0) (33.0) (30.6) (34.2) (78.3) (34.1) (34.1)
1HFY2012 708 243 34.3 84 11.9 119 16.8 84 11.9 530 177 25.1 9 24 6 150 150 21.1 48 32.2 101 14 (0) 101 18.3 5.5
1HFY2011 1,063 328 30.8 143 13.5 132 12.4 117 11.0 720 343 32.3 36 38 11 281 281 26.4 106 37.7 175 16 8 183 18.2 10.0
% chg (33.4) (25.9) (41.2) (9.8) (28.0) (26.4) (48.2) (73.7) (36.3) (49.7) (46.7)
354 317
354
200 150 100 50 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
15.0 10.0 60 (5.0)
(`cr)
(%)
100 50 -
53
54
53
54
53
54
53
57
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
(%)
150
(`cr)
5.0
Among the other segments, new businesses registered significant revenue traction. The radio business reported healthy top-line growth of 28.8% yoy to `13cr (`10cr) on account of increased advertising.
(`cr)
(%)
72 42 49 35
64
65 45
61 40
10.0 5.0 -
(%)
15.0
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
NPM (RHS)
2Q12
Gross margins
OPM
OPM under pressure yoy on high start-up costs, newsprint prices and forex losses
At the operating level, DBCL faced margin pressure (margin contracted by 981bp yoy) on account of increased circulation volumes due to new edition launches resulting in gross margin contraction of 525bp yoy/172bp qoq, increased staff cost by 209bpyoy/108bp qoq due to higher number of employees because of new editions, higher SG&A expense by 178bp yoy and 209bp qoq. On a sequential basis as well, the company reported a margin contraction of 657bp. The company also incurred `3.7cr towards one-time pre-operative expense on Maharashtra and Jharkhand launches and incurred a loss of `5.8cr on foreign exchange fluctuations during the quarter. Radio business reported EBITDA profit of `1.1cr for the quarter. During the quarter, mature editions reported healthy EBITDA margin of 32.5%. Newsprint cost for the company stood at `31,166/MT in 2QFY2012 against `26,835/MT in 2QFY2011, reporting 16% yoy growth.
2Q12
0 2,097.7
(0) (826.3)
28.1 (977bp)
31.3 (957bp)
Investment rationale
Well-planned aggression in business edges DBCL over peers: DBCL, though a dominant No. 2 player in the overall regional print space (trailing behind Jagran Prakashan), enjoys a premium valuation to its peers Jagran Prakashan (flagship daily Dainik Jagran) and Hindustan Media Ventures (flagship daily Hindustan). We attribute the reason for this trend to DBCLs business model (which is primarily driven by ad revenue) and well thought-out launches in new markets. We believe the companys continuous endeavor to diversify its print business coupled with aggressive expansion into new markets (urban towns beyond metros) backed by exhaustive market research and focus on achieving leadership is the key differentiating factor compared to its peers. The company has been successful in executing its expansion plans with launches in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Peg a 15% CAGR in ad revenue, new launches to contribute 2-3%: We expect ~15% yoy growth in ad revenue over FY2012E/FY2013E for DBCL (lower than FY2011 ad revenue growth) to factor in a slump in the macroeconomic environment and high base of FY2011.
CMP (`)
141 106 230
TP (`)
177 148 278
Upside (%)
25.4 39.9 20.8
ROE(%) FY12E
14.7 32.2 26.4
CAGR # Sales
12.9 9.1 12.6
FY13E
14.6 13.2 14.9
FY13E
1.1 2.2 2.4
FY13E
14.2 34.4 26.0
PAT
12.2 9.7 4.3
Jun-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
May-11
Dec-10
Sep-11
Oct-10
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jul-10
Mar-10
Mar-11
Sep-10
Jul-11
Nov-10
May-10
May-11
Sep-11
Total Liabilities
APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off
Total Assets
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 1.2 1.5 5.3 1.9 3.7 2.6 0.2 0.3 11.9 0.1 0.1 306.5 (0.1) (0.2) (170.5) (0.2) (0.5) (37.1) 2.5 29 75 59 72 2.3 27 68 70 52 1.6 25 67 59 56 1.5 21 70 48 58 1.7 24 65 57 48 1.8 26 63 54 50 24.9 27.5 39.3 14.2 12.9 20.0 30.7 34.8 40.3 31.8 35.9 35.0 28.5 34.7 26.4 29.6 37.9 26.0 17.5 0.5 1.6 14.3 0.1 1.7 37.9 11.2 0.5 1.4 7.1 0.1 1.5 18.1 27.9 0.6 1.3 21.9 0.0 1.0 44.6 27.6 0.7 1.4 27.8 0.0 0.1 30.9 24.0 0.7 1.5 23.4 (0.0) (0.0) 23.0 24.8 0.7 1.6 26.1 (0.0) (0.1) 22.2 4.5 4.1 5.8 0.5 13.0 2.8 2.6 4.5 0.5 15.3 10.1 10.0 12.2 2.0 35.7 14.1 14.1 16.5 4.0 45.2 13.1 13.1 15.8 3.6 54.0 15.5 15.5 18.7 3.8 65.0 55.6 39.7 17.7 0.2 5.3 26.2 7.2 88.6 50.7 15.1 0.2 5.0 35.0 5.4 23.1 18.9 6.4 0.9 4.1 13.2 4.2 16.3 14.0 5.1 1.7 3.4 11.0 3.8 17.6 14.5 4.3 1.6 2.9 10.6 3.3 14.9 12.3 3.5 1.7 2.5 8.8 2.8 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
DB Corp. No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11