Diffusion of Renewable Energy

Rangan Banerjee Energy Systems Engineering

Lecture delivered at RENET Workshop, IIT Bombay, September 22, 2006

Outline
Technology forecasting, Diffusion models Example for Solar Water Heaters in Pune Results for Pune Extrapolation for India Conclusions

Problem Context
Transition from fossil to renewable Potential Estimation Decide Feasible growth rates Set targets

Technology Forecasting
Trend Extrapolation Growth Curve - limitless growth y = y0 ekt (y0, k - from data) competitors trying to outdo others Co-efficients - obtained by regression report t, F statistic & uncertainty limits.

Technology Forecasting
Often growth limited by constraints Pearl Curve y = L/(1+ ae-bt) S shaped Logistic Curve Symmetric about point of inflection

Macro Level Diffusion Models

Variable Being Forecast

Limit L Exponential growth Logistic or S curve

Time t

Growth curves (Linstone and Sahal, 1976)

Technology Diffusion
Even if new technology better - will not reach 100% acceptance : postponement of acceptance, supply bottlenecks, information gaps

Fisher-Pry Model
Fisher-Pry model for substitution df/dt = bf (1-f) where f is the fractional market share of the new improved technology ln (f/(1-f)) = a + bt where a, b are constants

Fisher-Pry Curve
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Fraction (f) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 10 20 30 Time (Years) 40 50 60

Blackmans Model
Blackmans model Final market share not 100% but F ln (f/(F-f)) = a + bt Determine a, b by method of least square (regression) with initial substitution data a,b by analogy

Blackman Curve
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Fraction (f) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 20 40 Year 60 80

Penetration of Wind Energy in Germany

Source: Peter Lund, Energy Policy, 34, No17, 2006

Accelerated Diffusion

Solar Water Heaters

Estimate potential for solar water heaters in a given area Develop generic framework On-going Ph.D. project of Indu R. Pillai Diffusion of Renewable Energy Technologies
Indu R. Pillai and Rangan Banerjee Methodology for estimation of potential for solar water heating in a target area, Solar Energy, In Press, Available online 5 June 2006,

Solar Water Heating System

STORAGE TANK TO USAGE POINT AUXILIARY HEATER COLLECTOR

COLLECTOR

TO USAGE POINT AUXILIARY HEATER STORAGE TANK

FROM OVERHEAD TANK

PUMP

FROM OVERHEAD TANK

Schematic of solar water heating system

Solar Water Heating Systems in India

Estimated Potential = 140million sq.m.(Basis not known) Installed Capacity = 1.5 million sq. m. (0.8% of estimated potential)

Diffusion Process
Micro-level decision model (Decision of single user* or beneficiary to adopt or not) Potential Estimation

Integration of multiple users to form aggregate market

Macro-level diffusion model (Aggregate market and diffusion of product with respect to potential)

Estimated Potential

*Single user may be a person, a household, a society, an institution or an industry

Factors Affecting Diffusion Of SWHS

Location- Insolation Water Usage Pattern Cost of electricity Capital Cost Reliability Potential savings Subsidies/ Financial Incentives

Micro Level Decision Model (Parametric Analysis)

INPUT DATA
Water usage pattern Location
(Monthly average hourly temperature and radiation data)

TRNSYS

Characteristics of SWHS

Auxiliary heating requirement

(Monthly average hourly data) Economic Analysis MS EXCEL

Savings in Electricity Cost Payback Period Analysis Cost of electricity saved

Selection and sizing of SWHS

TRNSYS (Transient System Simulation Program developed at SEL, University of Wisconsin)

Model for Potential Estimation of Target Area

Target area Weather data, area details
Identification and Classification of different end uses by sector (i) Residential (1) Classification based on factors* (j) Sub-class (i, j) Technical Potential Economic Potential Market Potential Potential Potential for i = 2 for i = 3 Potential for i = 4 Potential for i = 5 Hospital (2) Nursing Homes (3) Hotels (4) Others (5)

Potential for end use sector (i = 1)

POTENTIAL OF SWHS IN TARGET AREA Technical Potential (m2 of collector area) Economic Potential (m2 of collector area) Market Potential (m2 of collector area) Energy Savings Potential (kWh/year) Load Shaving Potential (kWh/ hour for a monthly average day)

Single end use point Micro simulation using TRNSYS Hot water Weather usage pattern data SIMULATION
Auxiliary heating requirement

SECTOR (i) Classification based on factors* (j) Sub-class (i, j) Single end use point POTENTIAL No. of end use points Technical Potential Market Potential Constraint: market acceptance

Target Auxiliary heating SWHS capacity Base load for heating

Capacity of SWHS (Collector area) Technical Potential

Constraint: roof area availability

Economic Potential Economic Constraint

Electricity/ fuel savings Price of electricity Investment for SWHS Economic viability

Potential for end use sector (i = 1)

* Factors affecting the adoption/sizing of solar water heating systems

Information Flow Diagram of Micro simulation for SWHS

Weather data Hourly Global Solar Radiation & Diffuse Solar Radiation SOLAR RADIATION PROCESSOR Hourly Solar Radiation on Collector Surface

Hourly ambient Temperature

COLLECTOR

STORAGE TANK

LOAD (Hourly hot water usage pattern) Auxiliary heating requirement

AUXILIARY HEATER

Potential Of SWHS
Technical potential Pij for sub-class j in sector i is

Pij = f j f aj Ni Psj
where j denotes sub-class of end use points in sector i. Psj is the simulation output for a single end use point fj denotes fraction of the end uses m is the total number of sub-classes. faj is fraction of roof area availability Ni is the number of end uses points in sector i Technical Potential for sector i is

Pi =

Pwhere i denotes sector ij

Technical Potential of SWHS P(T) in the target area is

j=1

P( T ) =

Pi

Economic Potential
Economic potential of SWHS P(E): subset of technical potential

P (E )ij = ve Pij
ve = 0, if payback period > maximum
acceptable limit ve = 1, if payback period < maximum acceptable limit

Payback Acceptance Schedule

Fraction Meeting Economic Criteria 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Payback pe riod (years)

MARKET POTENTIAL

P (M )ij = f pj Pij
fp,j is fraction of potential adopters meeting economic criteria.

Input Data For Potential Estimation Of SWHS in Pune

Target Area Area Total Number of households Number of households with more than three rooms Average number of persons in each household Number of hospitals Capacity range of hospitals Number of nursing homes Capacity range of nursing homes Number of hotels Capacity range of hotels Number of households residing in single ownership houses 6 floors Number of buildings (4 flats in each floor) Cost of electricity (Rs./kWh) Residential Commercial 10 floors 11 floors Pune 138 sq.km 5.17 lakhs 1.41 lakhs 5 394 1-570 beds 118 1-50 beds 298 10-414 inmates 35250 1400 880 840 2.80 4.00

Hot Water Usage Patterns (Pune)

70
T e mp e ra t ure = 4 0
o

60 50

40 30 20 10 0

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 2 4 6 8

T e mp e ra t ure = 4 0

litres/h

litres/h

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Hou r of day

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Hou r of day

(a) Re si de n ti al (1) [Gadgi l , 1987]

25
T e mp e ra t ure = 5 0
o

(b) Re si de n ti al (2) [Narkh e de , 2001]

12 10 8 litres/h 6 4 2 0

T e mp e ra t ure = 5 0

20 litres/h 15 10 5 0 0 2 4 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Hou r of day (c) Hospi tal (1 be d)

30 25 20 itres/h 15 10 5 0 0 2 4 6

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Hou r of day

(d) Nu rsi n g Home (1 be d)

o

T e mp e ra t ure = 6 0

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Ti m e of day (Hou r)

(e ) Hote l - 1 gu e st

Monthly Average Ambient Conditions in Pune

35
Radiation (kWh/m /day)

Incident Solar Radiation Ambient Temperature

35
Monthly Average Ambient

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Monthly Average Solar

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
Mani, A. (1980) Handbook of solar radiation data for India.

Temperature ( C)

Sample simulation output and potential estimation for hospital with 5 beds
12 0 0 0 10 0 0 0

S o la r R a dia tio n S o la r Ene rgy Aux.he a ting

10 0 90 80 70 60

Am b. Te m p. Te m p.a t c o lle c to r o utle t Te m p. a t ta nk o utle t Te m p. a t lo a d

8000

6000 4000

50 40 30

2000

20 10

0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Ho ur o f d a y

0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Ho ur o f t he d a y

(a) Ene rgy fl ow/ Sol ar Radi ati on for a typi cal day
450 400 350 300 250 200 15 0 10 0 50 0

(b) Te mpe rature profi l e s for a typi cal day

Annua l Ele c tric ity S a vings = 4290 kWh

M o n t h o f ye a r

(c) Monthly variation i n e le ctricity savings

Potential Estimation of Sectors (Pune)

Technical Potential Sector Collector area (m2) Single houses Multi-storeyed 106000 227400 5500 600 13800 353300 Annual Electricity savings (kWh) 37200000 165000000 5900000 500000 15900000 224500000 Market Potential Collector area (m2) 2100 41000 1700 300 9300 54400 Annual Electricity savings (kWh) 740000 29700000 1600000 280000 10740000 43100000

Residential Hospitals

Nursing homes Hotels TOTAL

Load Curve Representing Energy Requirement for Water Heating

1000

Typical day of January

900

Energy Consumption (MW)

Typical day of May

Total Consumption =14300 MWh/day

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Total Consumption =760 MWh/day Total Consumption = 390 MWh/day

53%

Total Consumption = 13900 MWh/day

Hour of day

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Total Electricity Consumption of Pune Electricity Consumption for water heating of Pune

Achievable Potential Of SWHS For Different Payback Periods (Pune)

400000 Total Technical Potential = 353300 sq. m. 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 0.00

Technical Potential of SWHS (sq.m.)

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

Payback Period (years)

Economic potential (limit=payback period of 5 years) =19700 m2 collector area

Framework for Potential Estimation of Solar Water Heating Systems in a Country

Country details (Area, Average Weather Data) Locations where weather data available Weather data
Identification of sectors and classification within each sector

Locations where weather data unavailable

Selection of base city Methodology for potential estimation for a target area Potential of SWHS in base city

End use details for each sub-class Weather data End use details

Identification of variables for a different location Potential of SWHS in different location

Potential of SWHS in nearby area where Spatial weather data is not Interpolation available location

Aggregation for all the locations Potential of SWHS in the country Technical potential Electricity savings

Conclusions
Models for Substitution, diffusion to establish feasible growth rates Framework developed linking micro-macro simulation Example of Pune city (significant reduction in morning peak) Framework to be extrapolated for country Can be used for all renewables

References
Indu R. Pillai , R BanerjeeMethodology for estimation of potential for solar water heating in a target area, Solar Energy, In Press J.P.Martino, Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, 3rd edn, McGraw Hill, 1993. Linstone. H.A. and Turoff,M, The Delphi Method, Adison Wesley, Reading -MA,1975. Linstone and Sahal, Technology Substitution,1976 Mani, A. Handbook of solar radiation data for India., 1980 Peter Lund, Market penetration rates of new energy technologies, Energy Policy, Volume 34, Issue 17, November 2006, Pages 3317-3326. Data Source- MEDA,MNES, PMC