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Statistics: Conditional Probability and Independence

Example 1 (Top 100 Films): Given the two-way table indicating which of the top 100 movies were seen: Anne yes Anne no Total Krista yes 42 6 48 Krista no 16 36 52 Total 58 42 100 In particular, we found P(K)=.48, P(K')=.52, P(A)=.58, P(A')=.42, P(KA)=.42, P(K'A')=.36

a) Suppose Anne has already picked out a movie she hasnt seen, what is the (conditional)

probability that Krista has not seen it as well? Hint: Consider only the films that Anne has not seen, and ask how many of them Krista has also not seen.

b) How does this conditional probability compare to the (unconditional) probability that Krista has not seen the movie? Does the knowledge that Anne has not seen it make it more or less likely that Krista has not seen it?

Def: To denote a conditional probability, we read P(A|B) as the probability the event A will occur given that we know the event B has occurred. Note, this restricts the sample space to only those outcomes that are contained in event B. To calculate the conditional probability of event A given event B we use the formula: P( A B) P( A | B) = P( B) c) Verify that this definition produces the same conditional probability that you calculated in a). Hint: Think carefully about which events we are working with.

d) Calculate the conditional probability that Krista has seen the movie given that Anne has seen it? How does this compare to the (unconditional) probability that Krista has seen the movie?

e) Does knowledge of whether one person has seen the film affect the probability that the other has? Explain.

Def: Two events A and B are independent if P(A|B)=P(A); otherwise they are dependent. f) Are the events {Krista has seen the movie} and {Anne has seen the movie} independent? Explain why this makes sense in this context.

g) Calculate the probability that Krista has seen the movie given that Anne has not. Is this related to any of the probabilities you calculated above?

h) Suppose P(Spencer has seen the movie)=.48 and P(Spencer and Anne have both seen it)=.20. Determine the conditional probability that Spencer has seen a randomly selected movie given that Anne has seen it. How does this compare to the unconditional probability?

i) Calculate the conditional probability that Anne has seen the movie given that Spencer has. Is this equal to your answer to h)?

Example 2 (Political Primary Results): Consider exit poll results obtained by CNN during the Michigan Republican Presidential primary of 2000. This exit poll asked voters a variety of questions, including which candidate they voted for and which political party they identified with (this was an open primary in which voters of any party could participate). The poll results indicated that John McCain was the candidate of choice among 82% of the Democrats who voted, 67% of the Independents, and 29% of the Republicans. (See www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/MI/poll.rep.html for more complete results.) The CNN exit poll results further revealed that 17% of those interviewed were Democrats, 35% Independents, and 48% Republicans. Suppose that one of the voters interviewed by CNN is to be selected at random. Let D denote the event that the voter is a Democrat, I an Independent, and R a Republican, and let M denote the event that the person voted for McCain. a) Express the six percentages given above (82%, 67%, 29%, 17%, 35%, 48%) as probabilities (conditional ones where appropriate) using these symbols. Note: since the voter is selected at random, the probability of having voted for the candidate is the proportion of voters who did so.

b) From the definition of conditional probability P(A|B) = P(AB)/P(B), rearrange the terms to
derive a general expression for P(AB).

You have discovered the multiplication rule , which establishes that the probability of both events happening can be calculated as the probability of the second event times the conditional probability of the first event given the second: P(A B)= P(B)P(A|B) or P(B A)= P(A)P(B|A) Which version you will use depends on which probabilities are presented to you.

c) Use this multiplication rule to find P(M D). Also express this event in words.

Consider the probability table below. Such a table is analogous to the two-way tables of data that you have seen, but its entries are probabilities rather than counts.

d) Insert your answer to c) into the appropriate cell of the probability table. Then calculate and
fill in P(MI) and P(MR) as well. Democrat Independent Republican Total

McCain Bush Keyes Uncommitted Total .17 .35 .48 [Note: You do not have enough information to fill in the table completely.]

1.000

e) Add the probabilities from d) and enter the result in the appropriate (marginal) cell of the table. Does your analysis reveal that McCain won this primary? Explain.

f) Explain why it is legitimate to just add the individual probabilities in saying that: P({MD}{MI}{MR})= P(MD) + P(MI) + P(MR). In other words, what is true about the events MD, MI, and MD that allows this version of the addition rule to apply?

You have found in this example that P(M)=P(M|D)P(D)+P(M|I)P(I)+P(M|R)P(R). The analogous general rule is called the Law of Total Probability. It says that if the events A1, A2,, Ak are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (i.e., they form the entire sample space with their union), then for any event B:

P( B ) = P( B Ai )P ( Ai )
i =1

In this example, the events D, I, and R are mutually exclusive and exhaustive since those were the three political parties that respondents were given the option of identifying with. g) Use the information that George W. Bush received 10% of the Democrats votes, 26% of the Independents votes, and 66% of the Republicans votes to determine what percentage of the overall vote he received. Indicate with symbols the probabilities that go into your calculation, and also fill in the appropriate row of the probability table above.

h) Calculate the product between P(M) and P(D). Does it equal P(D M)?
Does P(R B)=P(R)P(B)? Show calculations to support your answer.

i) Reconsider the multiplication rule that you derived above for finding the probability of the

intersection of two events [e.g., P(A B)=P(A|B)P(B)]. Examine this formula to determine what must be true about the events A and B so that P(A B)=P(A)P(B) holds true. Hint: What differs on the right hand sides of the equations? What property does this imply?

You have discovered the multiplication rule for independent events, which says that if A and B are independent, then P(A B)=P(A)P(B). Often we can calculate whether this relationship holds to help us decide whether two events are independent. j) Are the events {voter is a Democrat} and {voter voted for McCain} independent? How about the events {voter is a Republican} and {voter voted for Bush}? Explain why these make sense in light of the context.

A more general result is a multiplication rule for more than two independent events. If the events A1, A2, , Ak are independent, then the probability of their intersection is the product of their individual probabilities: P(A1A2Ak) = P(A1)P(A2)P(Ak).