Annual Telecom Forecast 2006

Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management
Annual Telecom Forecast
Oct 2005 Sep 2006
(Presented on October 08, 2005 at National Telecom Seminar:

Communiqué 05)
© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

A Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management
Analyst Report

Table of Contents
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................ii
Methodology.............................................................................................................................vi
List of Figures .........................................................................................................................vii
Abbreviations .........................................................................................................................viii
Global Economy........................................................................................................................1
Global Telecom .........................................................................................................................5
Indian Economy ........................................................................................................................9
Indian Telecom ........................................................................................................................12
Telecom Technologies............................................................................................................15
Mobile Industry........................................................................................................................19
Broadband and Internet ..........................................................................................................22
Telecom Software....................................................................................................................26
Communication infrastructure................................................................................................30
Social Impact of Technology ..................................................................................................33
References...............................................................................................................................37

grow, there will be a mass adoption of 3G
Executive Summary and market will see second phase of
consolidation.
In Western Europe because of negative

Global Economy fixed line growth the operators will focus
towards VOIP, a high broadband growth as
The growth of an economy and consumer well 3G will be witnessed, 3G handsets will
spending are interrelated. Consumer be cheaper and the market would see
spending drives the economy and can be consolidation across fixed line, mobile and
forecasted by analyzing employment growth, VSAT vendor market.
inflation rate, interest rate, socio-political
scenario and other important economic African market will see growth in both fixed
indicators. and mobile market with tariffs coming down,
3G deployments will only be in countries like
The overall economy of the world continues Mauritius and South Africa.
to grow at a constant pace in the year Oct
05-Sep 06, the major spoilsport being the Middle-East countries will see a mild growth
rising oil prices. The vulnerability of energy in the fixed line, clustered growth in mobile
market has been underscored in troubled with a high growth in internet and broadband
times of hurricanes and this calls for the market, lesser 3G penetration and the
countries to be more efficient in future in use market environment as a whole will see
of oil. We see a growth in demand of oil from liberalization in the Telecom sector.
developing countries, which will keep the
prices high. The Asia Pacific region would see huge
investments in infrastructure resulting in the
growth in mobile market with fixed market
Global Telecom having near negative growth, broadband will
be on trial and more or less in the
Telecom market as a whole will grow deployment stage.
globally in the coming year; which is a
foregone conclusion; the major concern is Indian Economy
the intensity and the rate of growth. On one
hand whereas the developing Asian and
Economic developments in the recent years
African countries would be eyeing
indicate a growing resilience of the Indian
tremendous growth in their teledensities; the
economy. Even as the Indian economy was
European and American markets will see
buffeted by exogenous shocks emanating
new technologies making the mark. We will
from an erratic monsoon and record high
see Mobile service providers capturing the
international crude oil prices, we forecast
market share of fixed line operators.
GDP growth to remain around 7.2-7.5 per
cent during 2005-06.
North American market will see launch of
more services, new products & roll-out of
Effective macroeconomic management
new technologies. The market will continue
ensures that India will continue to remain
to consolidate and align itself across
one of the fastest growing economies
regions.
among emerging markets in an environment
of macroeconomic and financial stability.
Latin America will witness the up gradation
of mobile networks, moderate growth in
The short term economic and financial
mobile market, investments in Wi-Fi,
outlook is beginning to look positive with the
delayed deployments in 3G and mergers &
economy entering a period of accelerated
acquisitions slowing down.
growth as investment growth in
manufacturing and agriculture has surged
In Eastern Europe the ARPU for mobile
up.
operators will decrease but data services will
ii

EvDO, we forecast limited deployment in the
The rupee can be expected to stay on a form of Rev 0. It would be targeted mainly at
modest depreciating pace. Interest rates will the rural and the high End Market
continue to decline given the looser credit (Metropolitan Cities). GPRS will grow in
policy followed by the Reserve Bank of India circle A, circle B and in circle C .We expect
(RBI). India s relatively closed economy will GPRS to reach the masses through low cost
help insulate it from the volatility of the handsets. The GSM players are likely to
global financial markets. keep promoting EDGE and improve upon its
quality of service in the next year.
Indian Telecom
In parts of India we might see trials of
WCDMA. The rural sectors would be
Indian Telecom market is currently the
catered more than the urban sector and the
second fastest growing telecom market in
services would be used to provide better
the world. We have focused on the Indian
quality to masses than to the high-end
Telecom market under the following
application.
sections:
• Market Dynamics The Broadband access technologies
• Rural Telecom covered are WiMax, Wi-Fi, VSAT, Metro
• Regulations Ethernet, DSL and Cable. We forecast
• Investment Scenario WiMax replacing LMDS and MMDS as the
• Technology Growth last mile access technologies.
We forecast the current growth to continue Wi-Fi will predominantly remain a premise
and the teledensity to reach 13.8 by technology. VSAT would see demand from
September, 2006. Rural teledensity would government (Distance learning, remote
reach 2.2. Growth in urban sectors is health centres, defence), Media and Banks.
expected to be less while on the other hand Metro Ethernet would grow gradually over
C circle and rural sectors will witness next few years. The MET will come within
maximum growth. NLD and ILD tariffs are major cities. The competition along with
expected to reduce. lower deployment cost will result in the
reduction in the monthly rentals in case of
On the regulatory front National Telecom DSL. A gradual and low-level consolidation
Policy 2005 is expected to be released in a of cable operators is expected
few months and will affect major changes in
the Indian Telecom scenario. Heavy subsidy Major transmission technologies are WiMax,
from the government for mobile operators VSAT and DWDM. We predict that there
foraying in the rural sector is expected. FDI would be trials for WiMax as a back haul
in telecom sector is expected to increase for technology for Wi-Fi & VSAT as a backhaul
encouraging rural telecom growth. Wi-Fi technology to CDMA.
coverage is going to increase by next year.
The core technologies covered are
Telecom Technologies IP/MPLS, Managed switches, Soft switches
and Enterprise switches. MPLS will be
The recent past has seen many upcoming complimenting the ATM network and Frame
technologies in the field of telecom. We Relay. Market drivers for the Enterprise IP
have divided them into the following Communications will be collaborative
categories:- applications, IP Telephony, B2B
• Access applications, video services and content
• Core distribution. The managed switches will
• Transmission replace routers. Soft switches together with
• Application media gateways would be the key to the
replacement of central office (CO).
Enterprise switch market revenue will be
The Access technologies include EvDO,
fuelled by an increase in the average selling
GPRS, EDGE and WCDMA. In case of
iii

price and strong demand for Fast Ethernet trails of WiMax and EV-DO. Deployment of
and Gigabit Ethernet LAN switches. IPTV and video on demand will occur on
selective basis preferably in metros and A
BREW and J2ME are the major Application circles.
technologies. With support of CDMA
operators we foresee a good number of TRAI will continue to push Local Loop
BREW applications mainly in gaming, music Unbundling and open sky policy. Significant
& education. J2ME applications would also reduction of duty on broadband equipment
grow though not at the same pace as from current rate of 35% is expected in next
BREW. one year
Mobile Industry Telecom Software
The Indian Mobile market is expected to Telecom Software has become a major
grow by 60% and we would have source of competitiveness for telecom
approximately 97 million subscribers by service providers. Investments in telecom
October 2006. Most of the growth will come software are critical for differentiating one s
from the Circle B and C which are expected services and products and ensuring all the
to grow by 7% and 9% respectively month- services are properly billed for and there are
on-month. The Mobile teledensity would no revenue leakages.
reach a mark of 8.8 from the current levels.
All operators would enhance their coverage The main components of telecom software
in semi-urban and rural areas to grab the that we have considered in this white paper
untapped market. are as follows:
• Billing
Both GSM and CDMA Players have set their • Revenue Assurance
sight on 3G rollouts and they would deploy • Fraud Management
test WCDMA and CDMA-EVDO networks • Infrastructure Management Services
respectively which would enhance their 3G • CRM
business case. The ARPU would continue to • Business Intelligence.
drop by about 5% while tariffs will decrease
further by 15%. VAS would account for more Billing is and will remain the biggest
of Mobile revenue and gaming and component of investment for telecom
enterprise solutions will lead the pack. operators. The trends in Billing are as
Operators will come up with new charging follows:
techniques and bundled schemes to • Increase in Convergent Billing to
promote the uptake VAS. increase
• Content Based Billing to accelerate
Broadband and Internet • Outsourcing of Billing Systems will
start.
The section deals with forecast on:
International Bandwidth, National Backbone, After Billing, Revenue Assurance (RA) and
Access, application and Regulation Excess. Fraud Management Systems (FMS) will be
the biggest drivers of investments in telecom
Capacity will bring down prices of software. The emphasis will be on plugging
international bandwidth. Competition will Non-Technical Fraud since it constitutes the
increase in ILD market. National Backbone largest chunk of fraud prevalent nowadays.
expansion by NLD operators will continue.
New Players will enter into NLD market by Another emerging trend in the telecom
leasing capacity from other operators. software market will be the Managed
Services and we expect an increase in
On access side the major focus will be on Service Outsourcing this year. In case of
DSL and other technologies such as cable customer care we forecast a growing trend
and Metro Ethernet and Wi-Fi. We will see towards self-care and Electronic Bill
iv

Presentment and Payment (EBPP). Social Impact of Technology
Investments in CRM solutions which act as
a strategic tool for differentiating one s Technology enables individuals and
services and customer experience will communities to enhance their social and
continue. economic well being, and participate more
actively in society and the economy,
We also expect investments in Business internationally as well as nationally.
Intelligence (BI) modules to increase this
year. Last, but not the least we expect a lot Enterprise/employment creation, health,
of investments to be done on integrating education/ learning, access to justice,
different modules like Billing, CRM, RA & interactions with government, and personal
FMS, etc entailing a lot of opportunities for contact between people are increasingly
System Integrators (SI) in this field. being technology enabled and over time
they will be technology dominated.
Communication Infrastructure
Technology affects society either directly as
The Communication Infrastructure market in case of Internet or through an alternate
fell down in FY2004-2005 due to a decline in route by serving as an enabler for a
the carrier equipment market while the particular industry sector, which in turn has a
enterprise equipment market grew at a powerful impact as such in media and
decent rate but now the situation is changing entertainment industry.
as the operators are going for aggressive
roll out in the rural market which would be a Such direct and indirect impacts can be
prime reason for the carrier equipment segregated under five verticals viz.
market to grow in 2006. Entertainment, Education, Employment &
Economic well being, Social Bonding and
Indian regulators and manufacturers bodies Needs and Crime and Technology.
have set very high targets for 2006.
However we expect that these targets might Other upcoming trends like those of pay per
be trifle optimistic though the trust areas for song, impact of Digital Cinema, online
telecom equipment market growth will be dating, matrimony sites and many more are
mobile services, broadband especially DSL also being analyzed in this section.
and WLAN. We are also looking at very high
growth in the low-end handsets.
Vital drivers for the above would be new

technology advances (2.5G to 3G; dialup to
xDSL), and decline in equipment prices.

Methodology
On the same lines, the consumer spending
The SITM Telecom Forecast is an integral has a major impact on telecom spending
part of the National Telecom Seminar, held across geographies and hence the forecast
every year in the month of October. It is an begins with an economic analysis of
earnest and bold attempt by the students to geographies across the world. The derived
predict the future of the telecom industry consumer spending is then used to study
over the next one year. The forecast is a the telecom spending across the major
culmination of inputs from a domain specific markets. The challenges posed by
research project undertaken by students, upcoming technologies and the migration of
interaction with the industry and alumni, and existing technologies to newer versions are
academic learning from the institute. With also studied. With strong focus on India, an
this SITM has moved up the value chain economic analysis coupled with an in depth
from an educational institute to an learning study of potential regulatory changes and
organisation where the assimilated wisdom market forces, has resulted in creating
is applied to the real life scenario to help acknowledged pool. The developments in
companies, arrive at solutions. The success mobility, broadband, telecom software with
of Telecommunications in any country respect to the supply-demand equation in
depends upon its reach and acceptance by the country are studied in order to project
the masses. the scenario in these domains over the next
one year.
Our Research Methodology has both Short term and Long term Components
vi

List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Factors affecting consumer spending _____________________________________ 1
Figure 2.1: Global Technology Landscape 2006 ______________________________________ 8
Figure 3.1: Sector wise GDP Contribution ___________________________________________ 9
Figure 3.2: Economic Value Indicators_____________________________________________ 11
Figure 4.1: Teledensity Projections _______________________________________________ 12
Figure 4.2: Present status of Indian Telecom market and reasons for focus on rural telecom__ 13
Figure 5.1: The mapping of Wireless Access onto the Indian Market _____________________ 16
Figure 6.1: Movement in Mobility _________________________________________________ 21
Figure 7.1: Factors affecting Reduction in bandwidth prices ___________________________ 22
Figure 7.2: Factors affecting reduction in ILD prices __________________________________ 22
Figure 7.3: Access technologies outlook in 2006 _____________________________________ 24
Figure 8.1: Decision Matrix for Telecom Software ____________________________________ 26
Figure 10.1: Society, Industry, Technology Interdependence Model ______________________ 33
Figure 10.2: Survival of Technology _______________________________________________ 36
2
vii

Abbreviations
ADC Access Deficit Charge Mbps Megabits per second
ADSL Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line
ARPU Average Revenue Per User MMDS Multi-channel Multi-point
BREW Binary Run-Time Environment for Distribution Service
Wireless MMS Multimedia Messaging Services
BSNL Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd MPLS Multi-Protocol Label Switching
BSO Basic Service Operator MTNL Mahanagar Telephone Nigam
BSP Basic Service Provider Ltd
BSS Business Support System NLD National Long Distance
BTS Base Transceiver Station NMS Network Management System
BTVL Bharti Tele-Ventures Ltd NSP Network Service Provider
CAPEX Capital Expenditure OPEX Operational Expenses
CDMA Code Division Multiple Access OSS Operations Support System
CPI Consumer Price index PLR Prime Lending Rate
DoS Department of Space PSU Public Sector Undertaking
DoT Department of Telecommunications PTT Push To Talk
DSL Digital Subscriber Line SLA Service Level Agreement
DTH Direct To Home SMS Short Messaging Service
DWDM Dense Wavelength Division SONET Synchronous Optical Network
Multiplexing STD Subscriber Trunk Dialing
EBPP Electronic Bill Presentment and TDM Time Division Multiplexing
Payment TRAI Telecom Regulatory Authority of
ECB External Commercial Borrowings India
EDGE Enhanced Data rate for GSM UMTS Universal Mobile
Evolution Telecommunications System
EVDO Evolution Data Only VoIP Voice over Internet Protocol
FDI Foreign Direct Investment VPN Virtual Private Network
FII Foreign Institutional Investors VSAT Very Small Aperture Terminal
FRBMA Fiscal Responsibility and Budget WCDMA Wideband Code-Division
Management Act Multiple Access
FTTB Fiber To The Building Wi-Fi Wireless Fidelity
FWT Fixed Wireless Terminal Wi-MAX Wireless Microwave Access
GDP Gross Domestic Product WLAN Wireless Local Area Network
GPRS General Packet Radio Service WLL Wireless in Local Loop
GSM Global System for Mobile WPI Wholesale Price Index
Communication
ICT Information and Communication
Technology
ILD International Long Distance
IN Intelligent Networks
IPLC International Private Leased Circuit
IPOS Internet Protocol over Satellite
ISP Internet Service Provider
J2ME Java 2 Micro Edition
Kbps Kilobits per second
LBS Location Based Services
LLU Local Loop Unbundling
LMDS Local Multi-point Distribution
Service
MET Metro Ethernet
2
viii

Global Economy
The growth of Telecommunication is very
much dependent on the consumer spending.
In Global Economy we, try to find out the
spending power of a region. For this we
analyze the past economic performance, the
present economic, political and demographic
conditions of a region, and then forecast the
future trend that will follow because of the
decisions taken by government.
A study of consumption patterns across the

globe and a prediction regarding the same is
discussed in this section. This
understanding can reveal several
opportunities and forewarn us against
imminent threats. The objective is to help
enterprises, which operate in a global
environment.
Figure 1.1: Factors affecting consumer
Telecommunications as a service has come spending
of age in several parts of the world. Like any
other service, it is paid for after regular Europe
periods from the income in that particular
period. The ability of the population to North and Central Europe
consume a service depends on their
spending power and therefore on their Demand from both private households and
income. This necessitates research of firms are weak. Consumer spending is also
consumer spending. down as real wages have been stagnating
on average, as has the high unemployment
Towards determining the global economic rate. Planned and completed labour market
forecast for the year 2006, we lay emphasis reforms in some member countries
on the factors, which would affect consumer particularly Germany and France, added to
spending, directly or indirectly. Factors like, the uncertainties of households
net GDP growth, its break-up over three notwithstanding the fact that reforms have a
sectors of the economy, inflation and good chance of being beneficial in the long
interest rates, coupled with an in-depth run.
study of trends in budget deficits, balance of
payments, forex reserves, net foreign and Private investment is sluggish however
public debt and employment levels in the conditions for an upswing have been good
economy over past five years, we are trying for quite a while: profits have soared
to predict the trend in the next one year. considerably, and interest rates have stayed
low. Equity prices have been on a rising
Consumption is psychologically driven, and trend this year. Loans to enterprises are
this is the reason that economies affected by being eased on average. Although this is a
natural calamities behave so differently. This healthy background but still the investment
compels us to delve into socio-political is not encouraging. Inflation in EU will stand
situations of each region to understand its at 2.2% in 2006.
effects combined with the economic
parameters. In France unemployment will remain the
major reason for slump in consumer
spending. This will affect the confidence in

national economy. will remain slightly up in 2006. We predict a
growth of around 2% in the Euro area on the
After general elections in Italy, held in May assumption that the prices of oil which are
2005 there is no cohesive strategy to shooting high will come down to around $65/
address budgetary imbalances, which owing barrel.
to debt are very high. 2006 growth will be
strongly affected by high oil prices and by Latin America
the dollar s weakness. Industrial production
figures are going down. After strong economic performance last
German unions insist on short hours, high year, Latin America GDP is expected to
wages, immense social security benefits and grow again during 2005 at a rate of 4.1
conditions of work that make productivity percent, and by 3.7 percent in 2006.
increases virtually impossible.
Unemployment rate stands at 11.4% in Q2 Inflation will fall further to 6.0 percent in
2005. The push toward a European super 2005 and to 5.2 % in 2006, according to
state has proved an unmitigated disaster for forecasts from the International Monetary
Germany, which, despite its relative Fund.
economic decline, is still the biggest net
contributor to EU funds. We hope that the Brazil s GDP is expected to grow by 3.7
economy after facing more slumps will go percent in 2005. That was less than the
little up in 2006. We predict a GDP growth of impressive 5.2 percent expansion in 2004;
1.2-1.6% in 2006 which is better than this GDP will expand by another 3.5 percent in
year GDP of 1.2% in Q2. 2006.
Britain s GDP is growing for the past 50 The inflation has reached its 15 month low
consecutive quarters. For 2004 as a whole, and in 2006, inflation will likely reach 4.6
UK GDP rose by 3.1 per cent, its fastest rate percent. The central bank has been raising
of growth in last four years. In Q2 2005 it rates for the last 9 times and now it is going
grew at the rate of 1.5 per cent. We forecast to discontinue the same.
GDP growth in the range of 3 to 3.5% for
2006. Brazil is second largest exporter and
importer in Latin America. Mexico's
South East European Countries economy, the largest in Latin America is set
to grow by 3.7 percent in 2005 and another
SEE countries include Albania, Bosnia- 3.3 percent in 2006.
Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia,
Romania and Serbia and Montenegro. The Inflation is likely to reach 4.6 percent in
average GDP of these seven countries is 2005, slightly less than the 4.7 registered in
close to 5% till Q2 of 2005, which is a slight 2004. In 2006, it will fall further to 3.7
decrease from previous year. The area has percent. Mexico is by far the largest exporter
a high domestic demand which is keeping it and importer in Latin America, accounting
up even when the rest of other Western for 44 percent of all exports and 51 percent
Europe economy is going down. The major of all imports. Trade with neighbouring
driver for this region is Albania and Bulgaria, United States has surged and Mexico is now
which have a steady growth rate of 6% and the second-largest U.S. trading partner. The
5.8% respectively. United States is also key for Mexico,
accounting for 90 percent of the country's
On a whole Europe is plagued by the total exports.
dampened economic growth throughout the
world. The main reasons for this stagnant While Mexico's manufacturing and banking
growth are rising crude oil prices and some sectors are considered competitive, the
internal problems faced by different country's oil sector is still marred by a lack of
countries of Europe. However as the growth foreign investment due to continued
of some of Eastern European countries have restrictions. Mexico is the largest oil
not been affected much so overall growth producer in Latin America, but its oil
2

monopoly Pemex is considered one of the increase by 63 basis points in 2005 and by
most inefficient oil companies in the world. an additional 31 basis points in 2006,
There will be presidential election in July Housing projects will rise slightly in 2005 to
2006. 2.00 million units and then decline to a level
of 1.84 million units in 2006.
Colombia's economy, Latin America's fifth The dollar s value has been declining over
largest, is expected to grow by the past three years. The dollar is predicted
4.0 percent in 2005-06, the same rate as the to decline slightly this year by 0.7% and
economy expanded in 2004 remains unchanged in 2006. The trade
and 2003. Meanwhile, inflation was deficit is predicted to show some slight
expected to reach 5.2 percent in 2005, a improvement next year.
slight improvement over the 5.9 percent
registered in 2003. In 2006, inflation is US is plagued with current account deficit of
expected to fall further to 4.8 percent. $717 bn. Hence to increase the domestic
investments it was necessary to slowly
North America increase the interest rates, but as of now
there is a loss because of Katrina so US will
As we entered 2005, economic indicators be forced to reconsider its decision of
began to suggest some further moderation increasing the interest rates and hence will
in economic activity. In the first quarter of be forced to retain or lower the interest
2005, real GDP rose by 3.8%, the rates, which will prove to be beneficiary for
unemployment rate edged down to 5.3%, the US economy, as spending will increase
and the inflation rate increased by a more from government side.
moderate 2.4%, after oil prices rose by
$1.40 to over $49 per barrel. APAC
Employment gains were solid in 2004, with The region is growing at the rate of 6.6%
the addition of over 2.1 million jobs, which and this trend will continue in 2006. The
averaged to 183,000 jobs per month. This overall investment and exports are rising.
was above the trend growth rate of between Only dampening factor is rising oil prices
140,000 and 150,000 jobs per month. Job which is hitting very hard to countries that
growth for the first five months of 2005 has are net importer of oil. Some important
been slightly lower, averaging just fewer countries of this region are India, China,
than 180,000 jobs per month. Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan.
After a flat performance in 2003, the Japan after elections is set to implement two
manufacturing output expanded at a robust stage increase in income tax. The first stage
pace in 2004, increasing to 5.1%. In July is to be implemented in January 2006. This
2004, manufacturing output surpassed the will cut into private consumption, decreasing
previous peak set in June 2000. its growth from 1.8% in 2005 to 1.3% in
Manufacturing output growth slowed in the 2006
first quarter of 2005, rising by 3.5%.
In China the whole demand increased fast in
In 2006 the forecasted growth is to be the first half of 2005, but at the same time
moderate in almost every sector but still it is the supply increased faster. As a result,
expected to expand at a decent rate. inflation rate declined and the profits of
enterprises went down.
GDP is anticipated to rise by 3.3% in 2006.
Inflation in 2006 is expected to remain We forecast the growth rate of GDP in the
unchanged from its earlier rate of 2.7% in next year will be less than this year by about
2005. one point, that is, at 8.5% in 2006, as the
government s efforts to curb over
The housing sector is expected to take a investment. Despite government s effort to
step back over the next year and a half. With cool down some overheated sectors the
long-term interest rates forecasted to growth was 9.5% in 2004, highest after
3

1997. The growth rate of exports will slow
because of easing demand in industrial
nations and higher costs for China's
exporters. The sector of agriculture will grow
Africa
by 3.0-4.0 percent, reflecting government's
efforts to support rural production and The problems that concern Africa the most
farmers' incomes. As more domestic are AIDS, terrorism and corruption, but on
service industries open to the outside world, the backdrop of it the current trends are
an average 8% growth in the services sector positive and we expect the next boom after
is expected in 2006. China will remain a south-east Asia in Africa. Rising oil prices is
favourite destination for foreign investment also a boon to many economies of the
mainly as unskilled labour is about 4% of the continent. Considering major economies
cost in US and one third of the cost in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and South Africa
Malaysia. which will drive the African economy. We
expect GDP growth for whole of Africa to be
The investment growth rate in 2006 will be around 4-5% and inflation will be around
about 18%, or two thirds of current growth 6%. Increase in price of gold, copper and
rate (25%). The proportion two thirds aluminium will benefit the African countries.
comes from the relations among different Apart from that increase in political stability,
phases of the great investment cycle from declining debt/GDP ratio, improving fiscal
2002 to 2007. The investment in the year balance will bring new countries in front
2004 and 2005 were mainly on the which will drive the African economy. Africa
earthwork and construction. In the year will do better due to favourable external
2006, however, equipment investment will environment but, as importantly, due to
dominate. The growth rate of consumption internal factors. African countries will
will be 10% in 2006, 2 point lower than this deepen their reform for caring out remaining
year. Net export in 2006 will be eroded by structural reforms. This will increase the
the slowdown of the world economy and the consumer demand further.
RMB appreciation.

across regions. Although, the market
Global Telecom expectation is that Deutsche Telekom will
sell T-Mobile USA to Cingular Wireless, but
it will not realize soon, until the end of the
The word global rightly applies to telecom year or not at all. Also, European players
today. The telecom industry has truly may have partnership with US operators.
reached a stage where it has shrunk the
whole world. The telecom products have Last year mobile market witnessed huge
migrated even into the lower-income strata. growth from 109mn to 182mn. This trend will
Where we had wireless and wireline continue this year, although at a lesser pace
technologies on the rise last year, we have than last year, with GSM players leading the
the IP telephony and voice-over IP services way.
growing this year.
The forecast has covered the following 3G was launched with great expectations by
regions as the part of the study: Sprint Nextel, Verizon & Cingular Wireless
which hasn t realized its full potential. This
1) North America year it is expected to have only a mild
2) Latin America growth. Interactive & digital TV, which is
3) Europe: Western and Eastern expected to pick up this year, but to become
4) Asia-Pacific a commercial service it will take time. Cable
5) Africa telephony adoption rates slowed as
6) Middle East Comcast, in particular, focused on
profitability as opposed to customer
Global Trends acquisition. This year SMS has reached the
level of mass service with 37.3%
• Mobile subscriber base is going to subscribers picking it up and other mobile
increase. Mobile service providers are messaging services began to make an
capturing the market share of fixed line impact on mobile operator s bottom lines;
operators, since mobile provides more the same trend is expected to be followed
services at a cheaper price & results in a further.
better trade off value.
• By 2006, it is expected that more than LATIN AMERICA
80% of telecom traffic, will be routed
through mobile networks, driving mobile Fixed-line growth will be stagnated even in
revenues higher. the major economies such as Brazil, where
• Broadband tariffs are going to reduce operators have reached their service goals
worldwide, leading to increase into for line installation. Consumers will
subscriber base. increasingly favour mobile. There will be a
• Service providers worldwide are forced to marked trend towards the use of alternative
move towards triple play - Voice, data, systems, especially WLL and VoIP, and
and video together due the market fixed-line operators will be looking to Digital
competitiveness. Subscriber Line (DSL) services to increase
• VoIP is going to drive the innovations in their revenue potential.
the industry.
The fastest gaining mobile technology is
NORTH AMERICA GSM in many countries of Latin America, as
Latin users perceive the technology as more
modern than CDMA, mainly due to the use
North American market has witnessed the of chipsets and brand-new features and
merger of Sprint & Nextel, and acquisition of terminals offered. We see that TDMA
AT&T by SBC, which has resulted into operator will hold on to their subscriber base
competition becoming more intense by and will upgrade their networks to GSM.
launching more services, new products &
rolling out new technologies. The market will 3G deployments, on the other hand, will still
continue to consolidate and align itself be seen as risky and costly, and service
5

providers that paid high license fees in many Germany, France and UK. This will lead to
countries will not be willing to change their increase in sale of IP based phones. The
game-plan soon. 3G mobile telephony will voice revenue will decrease in case of
not find a grip in Latin America. mobiles but the overall mobile revenue will
increase because of increase in data and
We expect that the deployments in 1xEV- multi media services. Personalized services
DO will increase in next year and the growth will lose their importance and the place will
of CDMA will accelerate in Latin America be taken by Multimedia services.
and the Caribbean. But we see that
European Based Companies will expand Voice over WLAN (VoWLAN) will be the
their base in world by targeting Latin next upcoming technology. Its driver will be
America and especially lucrative markets the UMA (Unlicensed Mobile Access) group
like Brazil and Argentina. Telephonica providing dual mode supporting phones
stopped its expansion in Argentina but (cellular as well as Wi-fi). The top players
hopefully will start it next year after currency will move to other European countries as
devaluation stops in Argentina. done by Denmark s TDC and BT. We see
that the Europe's telecom sector is likely to
Triple Play services, combining voice, move towards consolidation.
broadband and pay TV is deployed in Latin
America. Maxcom, Alestra and Multivision
will gain early movers advantage in this field. The Internet usage and the number of users
The mergers and acquisitions are slowing will increase in Western Europe and the
down this year compared to last year. It is growth driver will be price and VOIP will
expected that massive investments in Wi-Fi dominate the scenario. This trend of intense
will be made by major telephone operators. competition will continue by local loop
unbundling - the opening to competitors of
local carrier's lines into homes, low prices
EUROPE: Western Europe
and by an increased focus on the bundling
of voice, video and data services.
European market is expected to undergo
another phase of consolidation, wherein Eastern Europe
deals are expected within major players.
Companies will be bringing synergies in the
market, with predictions like Telefónica Big acquisitions will piece together various
taking over KPN, Deutsche telecom taking businesses across the region, joining
over O2, NTL Inc. taking over Telewest companies that offer traditional landline and
Global Inc. cellular services as well as Internet and
cable TV access. In 2006 we expect a
This year we expect the voice over IP to growth in fixed line market of Eastern
reach to mass market. Launch of Google Europe but the revenue drivers will be
instant messaging program and Skype Internet and Data services on Internet.
marks the beginning of this era. Similar Mobile is gaining grounds in Europe. The
services are expected to be launched by markets like Armenia, Kyrgyzstan,
Yahoo, AOL and MSN. This will erode the Tajikistan, etc. will pick up in coming year.
telecom revenues, making voice calls a Russian market will grow at pace with Asian
commodity, posing serious threat to telecom market.
players.
This year, 3G subscriber base will register a
This year we expect that there will be growth very high growth. 3G services like watching
in mobile subscribers taking the subscriber TV, surfing the Web, downloading music
base to approximately 375 millions. and videos and video messages will reach
(Percentage growth: 3.5%). There will be the mass on the 3G handsets. 3G services
drop in the number of fixed line phones but will bring in fresh revenues for European
the infrastructure will be used for IP telecom companies, although 3G ARPU will
technologies such as VOIP in regions like also fall, as it becomes main stream. Till the
6

end of next year, as the deployment of China s mobile market will continue to
sophisticated networks needed to carry the expand further; its subscriber base is
technology roll out will be finished and prices expected to reach 400 million in the next
for 3G handsets will come down. year.
ASIA 3G is still far from achieving mainstream

adoption. WiMax or broadband wireless to
make great inroads or MMS becoming mass
Lately expectations have finally begun to is not expected this year. APAC also
realize this year with data usage beginning accounts for nearly 15% of the global VSAT
to drive the network growth and customer market and will be growing consistently at
retention. Data usage has also pushed the an increasing pace, particularly in countries
need for infrastructure upgradation. This like Indonesia, Philippines and Bangladesh.
year will continue to see some of major
infrastructure investments in Asia pacific
region. Demand for infrastructure
deployments will lead to year long growth, in MIDDLE-EAST
turn, leading to the rise in the contractual
rates. The market is changing, with rapidly
increasing competition in the mobile sector
This year Asia has become the world leader and slowly reducing state involvement. The
in internet usage. With the continuing growth onset of competition has led to a cut in tariffs
pattern it is expected to have 400 million by the incumbent and launching of new
internet users with almost 10% penetration services by both fixed line and wireless
rates. Broadband, in most of the economies operators.
of Asia-Pacific, is still a distant dream, where
its penetration to masses is restricted to the In a country like Israel, with its highly
countries like Japan, Korea, Singapore & developed telecom markets, competition
Taiwan. The DSL internet penetration is mainly exists for advanced data services.
increasing in the third world economies like Qatar & UAE despite having highest GDP
Sri Lanka, India, and Pakistan. Growth in per capita amongst the gulf countries, still
internet penetration is expected in the have least penetration & competition
growing markets, and it is expected mainly because of regulated market structure. Any
through DSL connection. Broadband is major growth is not expected in these
going to remain dormant in smaller countries countries. Whereas the countries like Saudi
of Asia. ADSL will become even more Arabia, Turkey & Jordan are in the process
widespread in the region and competition of privatizing 55% in their incumbent
among vendors will become fiercer. Asia will operators. These economies are expected
be the global leader in broadband roll-out. to have huge growth in both mobile as well
as fixed line subscriber base.
This year we expect that mobile market will
continue to show a strong growth pattern, Broadband is expected to take off following
although the increase in subscriber base the recent tariff reductions in the region.
would be because of penetration into Israel has the internet penetration of almost
smaller markets. 3G mobile services have 50% but broadband is still in the initial
started to gain some momentum in those phase. So the cable companies that have
markets where they have been launched. recently launched VoIP services are
Whereas, contrary to it, equipment costs are expected to go for bundling of voice and
reducing continuously. Global players like video services. Huge growth in broadband
Cisco, Alcatel, Siemens & Lucent are facing connections is expected this year, especially
competition from the vendors from China, in Egypt, due to broadband initiative taken
Korea, Japan & Taiwan. Also, Asian by Egypt government of bringing 24Mbps to
manufacturers are expected to launch into residential areas.
European and American markets.
Two major international cable projects with

landing stations in the Middle East, SEA- phase. The countries like Egypt & Uganda
ME-WE 4 and FLAG Falcon, are expected having duopoly in telecom markets, are
to go live in late 2005. This will result in an moving towards issuance of a third mobile
increase in wholesale capacity in the region. operator license. Saudi Arabia has also
Fixed line teledensity is either falling or issued second operator license, which is
steady in most of the regions as mobile expected to start operation in late 2006.
services have emerged as a competitor.
Only the less developed (and low mobile Billing and revenue assurance is seen as
penetration) markets of Syria and Iran have the area of investment in the next year,
experienced recent fixed line growth. because it is becoming increasingly
important for some African operators with
AFRICA rise in their subscriber base. With the recent
hike in the oil prices, oil producing countries
of Africa like Angola are expected to have
Africa features the fastest growing mobile, GDP growth that will drive telecom markets.
fixed line and Internet markets in the world, Third Generation (3G) mobile services are in
with penetration rates in all market trial phase in key African markets.
segments still being very low. Telecom
markets in Africa are in the liberalization
Figure 2.1: Global Technology Landscape 2006

Along with that a healthy growth in credit off-
Indian Economy take would support the momentum in
industrial production that would intensify the
competition and encourage a phase of
consolidation and restructuring of the Indian
industry.
The services sector has emerged as the

largest contributor to the growth in the
country. Advances in information
technology, liberalisation of the
telecommunications sector and availability of
skilled labours have permitted India to reap
advantages through the globalisation of
some services. The initial impetus provided
by exports of software and services has now
got additional support from the exponential
growth of IT-enabled sector (ITES). The lead
indicators of services growth such as cargo
handled at major ports, civil aviation,
Figure 3.1: Sector wise GDP Contribution number of cell phone connections and
trends in bank deposit and credit indicate
The Indian economy is on a roll, with the that services sector is likely to maintain its
GDP logging 8.1 percent growth in April- growth momentum in the current year.
June 2005 despite some setbacks arising
from an insufficient monsoon and sporadic Indications are there that both consumption
supply-side pressures on inflation. This and investment demand would remain
paper measures various economic buoyant. The business conditions would
parameters, which will determine the growth continue to remain conducive to support
in the coming financial year and also corporate investment demand and lending
anticipate the consumer spending. rates would remain low, investments on new
projects seem to be very likely. In year
Growth 2005-06 we expect an increase in corporate
investment to be more than $16 billion in
The state of the Indian Economy as 2004-05.
reflected by the growth figures is projected
to increase from the earlier figure of 6.5% Inflation
and is predicted around 7.5%.
The increase in inflation reflected large
The base effect arising from low growth last supply side shocks emanating from high
year and a normal monsoon, the primary international commodity prices, especially of
sector is expected to contribute positively to crude oil and metals. Although demand-side
the overall growth in 2006.The agricultural pressures can be relatively subdued, the
growth would largely accrue from liquidity overhang would fuel concerns about
improvements in productivity of diversified emergence of inflationary expectations. The
farming systems and other value added government may have to borrow more to
activities that would play an increasingly meet the crude requirement. Also, hiking the
important role in diversification of agriculture domestic oil prices will impact inflation and
and rural industrialisation. interest rates. Monetary and fiscal measures
Because of decreasing dependence on will be initiated to check the cascading effect
agriculture, a congenial domestic investment of these supply shocks and especially, to
climate, improvement in world output, a stabilise inflation expectations. Hence, we
liberalised FDI regime and surging can witness a moderate increase in inflation
manufacturing exports, we expect a robust and to stabilise around 5.0-5.5%.
performance of the manufacturing sector.
9

Rupee Exchange Rate Resource mobilisation from the primary
market through public issues can also been
While foreign exchange inflows would seen on an upswing as more and more
continue to push the rupee up, the demand small and mid-cap companies are pacing
for dollars from oil companies will force a their way for the resource mobilization in
depreciation pressure. If the domestic prices equity markets.
are raised, demand for dollars from the oil
companies will result in a dollar shortage The Indian stock market has witnessed a
which might lead to depreciating rupee. rally as no other exchange has ever has
However, if oil prices stay moderate, the seen. From the low lying levels where the
rupee might appreciate with the dollar Sensex was at 2500 mark in the early 2003,
depreciating owing to the larger than today the market is breaking its own records
expected trade deficit of the United States. everyday and all the factors for its growth
Hence, the rupee can be expected to rule in falling into place to give the Indian stock
the 43.00 44.00 range against the dollar market continued rally, markets are
with a bias towards depreciation. expected to trade in 10,000 levels by the
Also, the decision of China to move away 2006.
from the peg to the US dollar is unlikely to
have any significant impact on India in the Money Markets
shorter term.
Liquidity in the economy will be surplus due
Government Finances to capital inflow and the government credit
with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
There will be consolidation and improvement Though the interest rates have been rising
in both Central & State Government overseas, the rate differential in India would
finances because of the fiscal correction remain lucrative. The other crucial factor
path for the Central Government notified by would be the well performing equity market
the FRBM Act, 2003. However, the which is drawing a lot of portfolio
unanticipated fiscal stress owing to investments. Given the surplus liquidity, call
emerging inflationary pressures might result rates will remain soft. The bank rate and
slippages from the budgetary projections. CRR would remain unchanged each at 6%
Otherwise, the FRBM targets for Fiscal and and 4.5% resectively whereas by increasing
revenue deficits would be achieved. the reverse repo rate by 50-75 basis points,
Moreover the surge in the economic activity, it will try to control the growing inflation
especially in the industrial sector, would also caused by the increase in the international
enable an increase in the tax/GDP ratio and oil prices.
one could also witness the reduction in key
deficit indicators such as Revenue Deficit & External Sector
Fiscal deficit.
Despite the sustained strength of export
Both Fiscal and Monetary policy are giving performance, the merchandise trade deficit
the economy the perfect fuel for its is expected to be somewhat higher in 2005-
exponential growth with all factors falling into 06 as compared to the previous 2004-05
place we can expect India to outperform mainly on account of substantially higher oil
itself in each quarter. prices. For the year as a whole, while
invisibles surplus may finance a large part of
Financial Markets the trade deficit, the current account deficit
is expected to widen during 2005-06.
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals,
encouraging investment climate, strong
investment by FIIs, policy initiatives relating
to FDI and an expected impressive financial
performance of Indian companies will keep
the capital market buoyant during 2005-06.
10

Consumer Spending
Consumers in India are in no mood to stop

GDP Growth: 7.2-7.5%
splurging. The spending patterns of Indian
consumers are stabilizing after robust
double-digit growths in discretionary Inflation to stay around 5.0-5.5%
spending over the last two years. While
overall discretionary spending has grown by SENSEX to breach 10,000 mark
44%, the total spending has seen a 9%
growth this year, as against 20% last year. Fiscal Deficit to go down
The spending rate is projected to rise at the
same pace especially in terms of the luxury Rupee to remain stable against the dollar
goods around 20%. The consumer spending
is in line to see a buoyant growth in lifestyle
FDI/FII to increase significantly
segment also. We predict the per capita
consumer spending in India to be on an
upward swing for the coming year. Bank rate and CRR to remain
unchanged. Repo rate to be increased by
50-75 basis points
Figure 3.2: Economic Value Indicators
11

Indian Telecom
Teledensity Forecast till Sep 2006

Present Teledensity = 10.12 Mobile Teledensity = 9.49
Optimistic Teledensity = 13.8 Fixed Teledensity = 4.77
Conservative Teledensity = 13.2 Urban Teledensity = 33.6
Rural Teledensity = 2.2
A large gamut of activities is expected to One plan, there would be a significant

dominate the Indian Telecom sector in near reduction in STD rates and STD tariff would
future as the government strives to achieve tend to become a flat rate plan from the
the target of 250 million phone lines by existing distance based rate plan. This
2007. Teledensity would reach 13.8 by would subsequently encourage the high-end
September 30, 2006 from the current customers to increase usage. With the
teledensity of 10.12 in August 2005. decrease in STD rates, the share of NLD in
Projected teledensity revenues is expected to increase by as
much as 30% .The ILD market has also
started to see some competition with Bharti
40
reducing its rates for ILD calls. The market
teldensity
will see benefits for the Integrated Players

20 like Bharti, Reliance and BSNL who have
Aug,2005
their own NLD and ILD backbone and can
Sept,2006 push the rates southwards.
0
Overall Urban Rural
Aug,2005 10.12 26 1.74 Voice revenue growth will be seen both from
Sept,2006 13.2 33.1 2.2 the urban sector, which will be due to
increase in MOU as tariffs will further fall.
Voice revenue will also see a major growth
Figure 4.1: Teledensity Projections from the rural segment. Non-voice revenue
will see a huge growth, but only in the urban
saturated market. Therefore, the overall
Market Dynamics
share of non-voice revenue in the total
mobile market will not see a very significant
Tariffs in mobile telephony will see further
increase. Non voice services in Mobile will
reduction, if government goes to reduce the
see further growth in revenue share and is
ADC by 30%, we expect a 15-20% price cut
expected to reach 8%.Growth in Metro cities
in the tariff. The operators will be coming up
will be faster than the Circle A ,B or C. Next
with different tariff plans in order to pass the
year we expect the number of broadband
benefit to the customers. Intra network traffic
subscribers to increase significantly. Focus
will be promoted, this may have also face
of operators will be more in increasing
regulatory intervention.
penetration as well as developing need for
broadband
Beginning June 2005, we have seen
massive activity in the NLD and the ILD
market with the tariff war shifting to these
markets. Although we do not see immediate
implementation of the government s India
12
Regulatory Issues 3G pilot project and further growth will be
based on performance. Hence we see no
The Indian Telecom industry is waiting 3G finalization of tender by next three
eagerly for National Telecom Policy 2005 quarters.
which should be released in the next few
months. The issues of focus in NTP 2005 Rural Telecom
would include Spectrum policy, focusing on
spectrum availability for rural operators. Rural Teledensity is expected to reach 2.2
Strengthening of several institutions like by next year (September), hence showing
TDSAT would also be included. an overall 25% growth from that of current
teledensity of 1.74. The focus on Rural
For the faster telecom penetration in the Telephony is evident from the fact that the
rural sector, government may this year offer operators are geared up with their
direct financial support in the form of subsidy expansion plans. BSNL will drive the growth
to the rural operators. Discounts on tariffs, due to its coverage mainly. Operators will
licenses and spectrum charges may be see their further subscriber growth in C
offered. Infrastructure sharing would be circles and rural villages on the national
greatly encouraged. highways and railway tracks this year.
Aggressive expansion plans, effective
Even though a lot of thought has gone into distribution channel and drop in handset
the issue of implementing Number prices (low cost handsets) will be the drivers
Portability in India, Number Portability of Rural Telecom. Business Models for
implementation is inevitable but not Rural Telecom would be more Risk dividing
expected before the year 2007. The Number and revenue sharing and so they would be
Portability implementation would see a steep unlike the Standard operating models which
rise in Customer retention cost. Also we are existing in the urban sector.
expect 3G technology would first come as a
Mobile Telecom Entry Strategy

Supply Driver
Results -
1
Success for the
Existing Market
Economic Class
Differentiation
Results -
2
Challenges for the
Demand Driver Emerging Market
Base - Size
Figure 4.2: Present status of Indian Telecom market and reasons for focus on rural
telecom
13
Private Operators will go for risk optimization is much lower than that of Urban Business
by dividing their revenue and risks Models, operators would either seek help
simultaneously, offering bundled services of from subsidies/funds or would want to allow
voice and data with the former acquiring FDI for investment in Telecom Sector.
90% of the share. Also as these areas have Players like Reliance and TTSL may go for
low population and low ARPU, we expect FDI but not more than 50%. Further, at a
the network planning to have large coverage time when global telecom majors are
and low capacity solution. Distribution of struggling to cope with their losses and the
Existing Unutilized Capacity in Coverage rollout of 3G networks, which has been a
Distribution and Distributed Low capacity non-starter for close to a year now; India,
Call Traffic Switching Management will be with its telecom success story, represents
some of the Solution strategies for rural an attractive and lucrative destination for
penetration. Use of innovative Access investment. The year 2005-06 should
Transmission like Satellite Back Haul may witness an increase in FDI investment. The
be used. Use of New Frequency Spectrum FDI hike will have a long-term affect on
supporting Higher Coverage like CDMA 450 telecom scripts and there is likely to be a
MHz may also be considered. Multilingual number of new listings on the bourse.
handsets supporting rural language at prices
near Rs.1000-Rs.1500 are expected to Currently, the Indian stock markets are
come in the market. At present the sharing starved of investment options in telecom
of access and infrastructure is 26% and this since the sector has only four listed entities:
will further increase in the coming year with Bharti, MTNL, VSNL and Tata Teleservices
the Government also starting to share for (Maharashtra). The FDI hike could also
the same in order to benefit growth in these impact the option for a fresh ADR issue
areas. where existing investors could offload part of
their stakes.
Investment Scenario
Technology Growth
Investors can look to capture the gains of
the Indian telecom boom and diversify their We expect that Wi-Fi coverage in India will
operations outside developed economies increase in the next year. Wifi is not going to
that are marked by saturated telecom be an operator technology and we expect
markets and lower GDP growth rates. Till the demand in Wifi to be Institutional and so
recently, the industry believed that while the the supply has to be the same. The number
hike in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) limits of Wi-Fi hotspots as expected is most in the
was necessary, it was not a sufficient metros and Bangalore, the growth in the
condition for growth of the telecom sector. forthcoming year can be contributed to
With most of the regulatory uncertainty government s move to delicense the 2.4GHz
getting over, there is heightened interest in and 5.1 GHz band. The next year should
Indian telecom. A much deeper thought into see Dishnet, BSNL, MTNL, Sify, Bharti and
this issue, asks us to analyze two basic Tata significantly targeting the Wi-Fi market.
questions At the back the operator would be going for
Revenue sharing with the Institutes. Besides
• Who wants FDI and for what benefit? this standalone operators like Microsense,
• How much FDI is feasible and by when? Convergent Communications and Tomasco
are drawing up their own Wi-fi deployment
As per our study, we expect that FDI would plans. It is expected that there will be 15-20
be driven mainly for Rural telecom and GSM fold increase in number of hotspots. Almost
players Idea, Hutch, Bharti and other small all the major cities will see the presence of
players may benefit. Since the Rural market hotspots. But Wi-fi entering into rural market
is unexplored and the return on investment is not likely in near future.
14
Rs. 15000). The people who would be
Telecom Technologies availing the services of EvDO would be the
high income group. The offering of handsets
India as a market has a huge potential, but on instalment basis as usually done by
at the same time very dynamic. The diversity Reliance and Tata might increase its taker.
of the market in terms of socio-economic,
demographic factors is very high. This In all, we would see more number of cards
diversity along with the competition among sold than the handsets.
the service providers has resulted in lot of
technological advancements. This section GPRS
divides the technologies into the following
four categories and analyses the trends that GPRS will grow in circle A, circle B and in
they are going to follow. circle C to a considerable extent in India.
• Access Bharti, BSNL/MTNL have a pan India

• Core presence. BPL Mobile, Hutch and Essar
• Transmission would make a PAN India deployment of
• Application GPRS to remain competitive. The expected
availability of low cost GPRS enabled
Access handsets would enable GPRS to proliferate .
Though the throughput is low (12 Kbps), the
EvDO data rate is sufficient and would definitely
attract the more people. Ringtones, games
Considering that the 3G licensing issue will and wallpaper downloads would still remain
be resolved and the spectrum would be the most used services on GPRS.
open and also the CDMA operators are
ready for EvDO(Reliance is understood to EDGE
have conducted tests in some parts of
India), EvDO will come up in India. But there Since in future, any deployment would be an
would be limited deployment and it would be EDGE deployment all the GSM Service
EvDO Rev 0. This is because of the reason providers would provide edge services. The
that CDMA operators would like to be EDGE data cards would be used by the
cautious about the response of the Indian corporates for accessing corporate
market. databases. The throughput of EDGE
technology is low (70-80) kbps compared to
The advantage of EvDO for CDMA player is what is claimed. This is the major hindrance
that the costs of up gradation from CDMA for the growth in popularity of EDGE. Overall
2000 1X is less. Therefore we can see a EDGE will grow, but at a slower pace and
gradual migration from CDMA 2000 1x to more of data cards would be used than the
EVDo Rev 0. EDGE based handsets.
EvDO will be targeted mainly at two WCDMA

segments:
The GSM players are likely to keep
Rural Segments: Here the data cards will be promoting EDGE and improve upon its
used by Cyber Cafes to provide internet quality of service in the next year. In parts of
connection of 200 Kbps each. India we might see very limited trials of
WCDMA. The cost of up-gradation to
High End Market (Metropolitan Cities): Here WCDMA is very high, but globally its had a
the handsets will be used by people mainly greater success than EVDo.
for Mobile Video Streaming, Video It has been found that 3G growth across the
Conferencing and accessing corporate global has been slow. So taking some
database from anywhere, anytime. Though lessons from them, the service provider
the equipment vendors would push more (both GSM and CDMA) would do judicious
handsets into the Indian market but the cost investments and go for phased roll out.
would still remain on the higher side( around
15
Figure 5.1: The mapping of Wireless Access onto the Indian Market
Broadband Access The VSAT will grow comparatively more due

to demand from government (Distance
WiMax learning, remote health centres, defence),
Media and Banks.
WiMax (802.16) will replace the LMDS and
MMDS at the last miles.
Metro Ethernet
WiFi
Metro Ethernet is expected to grow
Wifi will predominantly remain a premise gradually next year with majority of
technology. The premise owner will drive the investments coming from Reliance and
need for the technology. Some operators TATA. The MET will come within major
might offer Wifi as a free service bundled cities. The management systems of
with other services. We would also Wifi Ethernet networks can simplify the
deployed at public places by the operators configuration of services, reducing the time
and the customers would be charged a to deliver services to customers. Once these
negligible price. services are in place, customer requests for
greater bandwidth or additional services are
VSAT accomplished via a quick software
adjustment, versus a time-consuming and
costly truck roll.
16
Market drivers for the Enterprise IP
DSL Communications will be collaborative
applications, IP Telephony, B2B
The advantage of DSL is the already applications, video services and content
existing infrastructure (Copper cable) of the distribution. The major concerns that have to
incumbents. The incumbents have vast be taken care of, is high QOS expectations
reach and making additions of one i.e. minimum bandwidth requirements,
component at the ends (DSLAM) can minimum delay variation (Jitter in voice and
provide DSL. Thus DSL would continue to video applications) and class of service
have its own place. Bharti and VSNL are flexibility.
other major players favouring DSL. The Managed Switches
competition along with lower deployment
cost will result in the reduction in the The managed switches will be replacing
monthly rentals. routers while switches will have inbuilt
routers. Managed switches will see an
Cable upward growth compare to last years.
We can expect a gradual and a local level Soft Switches

consolidation of Cable operators and the
trend towards getting organized. As the networks move towards a packet
based network soft switches are finding an
Transmission extensive use. Soft switches are at the
centre of the next-generation networks
WiMax (NGN). Together with media gateways they
would be key to the replacement of central
WiMax will be tried as a back haul office (CO) TDM switches in the public
technology, especially to the Wifi. telephone networks. Both wireline and
wireless service providers' growing
VSAT inclination towards IP and the growth in
business-and consumer-VoIP services have
On the technological front, we will see been driving soft switch deployments in
increase in the popularity of VSAT as a almost all major telecom markets. Even
backhaul technology to CDMA. though soft switches are still far from
completely replacing the legacy switches,
DWDM they are certainly main stream now.
The DWDM will continue to remain as Enterprise Switches

popular high traffic carrier. Investments on
CWDM will also take place. Enterprise switch market revenue will be
fuelled by an increase in the average selling
Core price and strong demand for Fast Ethernet
and Gigabit Ethernet LAN switches.
IP/MPLS Switches will be coming with enhanced
security, quality of service and high
All the network will be moving towards availability for mission critical applications.
IP/MPLS. MPLS will be complimenting the
ATM network and Frame Relay. The initial Application
CAPEX is high since the routers have to be
and other components have to be changed. Brew
But increase the operational efficiency and
more scalability and security will ensure high In India the CDMA operators are supporting
ROI both for the operator as well as the lot of applications developed on Brew
clients. There is a high demand for MPLS in platform.. So next year we foresee a good
the enterprise segment especially BFSI. number of BREW applications.
17
Gaming, Music & Education would be the developing applications. Thus J2ME will
major drivers have good prospects in the next year.
With the opening of the BREW developer Differentiating Applications: Triggered by

lab in Mumbai which would provide Indian the Secret SMSing VAS offered by BPL
application developers access to latest Mobile, we expect that more applications
BREW enabled handsets, software and that would require encoding/ encryption
testing tools as well as the research and would emerge next year. Typical example
development centre in Hyderabad we see would be Banks and the telecom operators
coming up of several local level applications might go for a tie up wherein one can
on BREW. access the bank or do a transaction through
mobile itself using the SIM Card ID or any
J2ME such unique ID. In all we would see a
change in the paradigm in the VAS/
J2ME application would continue to grow. Application Industry.
GSM player are having Innovation centre for
18
market would have approximately 97 Million
Mobile Industry Subscribers at the end of September 2006.
This would lead to a Mobile Teledensity of

The Indian Cellular industry is one of the 8.8, up from a current figure of 5.2 percent.
very few industries, which has seen a more The current cellular distribution is
than 70% growth for a long time. Things concentrated around the so-called richer
have changed a lot from August 22 1995 circles with Metros having the maximum
when the first call was made from Calcutta concentration of mobile users. The
to Delhi on Modi Telstra Network. The proportions are however slowly tilting with
biggest indicator of the change is that Modi Circle B & C getting a higher share of the
Telstra is no longer in business now- it was market.
acquired by Bharti. Today 10 years later, we
have 61 Million Mobile subscribers, which is
a phenomenal growth.
Circle Wise Distribution of Mobile
subscribers
Market Growth
40%
The tremendous growth in the Indian 35%
30%
Cellular Industry can be attributed to various
25%
factors like tremendous competition among 20%
Aug-05
Sep-06
players, presence of a huge addressable 15%
market, low tariffs and a decent government 10%
5%
policy. 0%
Metros Circle A Circle B Circle C
Presently the overall teledensity is 10.15 %
of which mobile density contributes The rapid growth in Circle C is something
5.2%.The current subscriber numbers which operators are certainly taking a note
comes majorly from the Metros and the of. Last year major GSM Players have tried
Circle A, which account for maximum to penetrate in the semi-urban and rural
number of the connections. The year 2004- markets. Essar Spacetel has plans to start
05 saw a growth rate of 55% in terms of services in 7 circles and Dishnet Wireless is
Mobile subscriber growth. also starting its services in another 8 circles.
Idea also has licenses of 3 circles from its
The circle wise cellular growth rates have Escotel Acquisition where it may plan to
stabilized since some time with Metros launch services. Major players are looking at
having a growth rate of 2-2.5%, Circle A Pan-India coverage to improve reach.
having a growth of 5%, Circle B having a Hutchison-Essar would have a presence in
growth rate of 6% and Circle C increasing at all Telecom circles of the country by 2006
9%. These trends are expected to continue end.
as Metros and Circle A are fast approaching
saturation and especially, Metros are seeing GSM Coverage is today available in more
mature growth. Circle C being largely under- than 3600 Cities/Towns and it is expected to
served is seeing huge uptake of mobile be increase to 4500 towns. The reason for
services. However during the later 2 this is that, for the first time, operators have
Quarters of the year, we might see a higher truly embarked upon the mission of
growth rate in Circle B and C due to the connecting the semi-urban areas, due to
operator plans for semi-urban and rural decrease in the growth rate in the Metros
rollouts actually taking place on the ground. and Circle A. The Focus of operators would
be Capacity Enhancements in the Metros
With a current monthly addition of 2-2.5 and Circle A and both Capacity and
million subscribers every month and the Coverage Enhancement in Circle B and C.
uptake expected in rural markets, the GSM Operators will use innovative
Subscriber growth would be at 60% for the techniques like High Gain Antennas,
next year till Oct 2006. The Indian cellular Amplifier Solutions and Booster Solutions to
enhance Coverage minimizing the
19
investment. GSM players extend their GPRS Revenue Sources
and EDGE Coverage which would form their
basis of a Business Viability of 3G Services. The total revenues of the Mobile Sector in
2004-05 were $5.2 Billion (Rs 23,284
GSM Expansion in Rural areas would be to Crores). Voice accounts for more than 90%
provide Voice Services while those of CDMA of the revenues. Other Value Added
Players would be for both Voice and Data Services account for around 6% of the total
Services. CDMA2000-1x and maybe EVDO revenue ($ 312 million).
would be used to fill the gap of unavailability
of DSL Services in Rural areas. The The total mobile revenues are expected to
bandwidth demand will come from Rural grow about 58% to $8.2 Billion driven by
Manufacturing units, Educational Institutes addition of new subscribers due to increased
and Cyber cafes. population coverage, especially in semi-
urban and the rural areas.
Operators have taken some initiatives for
growth in the Low-ARPU markets by offering The ARPU has reached a Rs 390 mark, but
bundled handsets with free talk time equal to this has been taken care by decreasing
cost of handset. CDMA players have an Operational expenditures per subscribers of
upper hand in this segment as they have all operators. The OpEx has declined from
always offered Bundled handsets at cheap Rs 845 per subscriber per month in 2000 to
rates, and GSM players are going to find it Rs 180 per subscriber per month in 2005.
tough to match them. More Cheap Handset Further reduction in the cost of operating
players are expected to make an entry in an networks and personnel costs on account of
extremely price-conscious market. Rural increasing subscriber base will have an
cellular coverage will still be dominated by effect on the Operational Expenses to the
BSNL but private players will selectively range of 10-15%. Further Decrease in
target rural markets. ARPU will be of the range of 4-5% due to
Low ARPU customers increasing across all
GSM players will undertake WCDMA trials in networks.
select Metros, but not in Rural areas. CDMA
Players will try to deploy CDMA 1xEVDO The tariffs in the Indian cellular market have
Solutions in the rural areas on trial basis. declined and have stabilized at the Re 1
mark and we might see a further decline of
Market Structure 15-20% in the tariffs. Major players might be
able to absorb the costs due to large
The Number of Prepaid customers have far number of calls being made inside their
exceeded the postpaid customers during the network, which come out of the ADC and the
initial phase. Although the ratio has been an IUC Domain. With a revenue share regime
individual operator strategy, Operators have for ADC in-sight, Operators will reduce tariffs
begun focusing on postpaid subscribers to and pass on some extra benefits to the
keep lower churn rates and higher ARPU. subscribers. In spite of regulations,
Operators will try to encourage On-net
The growth rate of Postpaid has been Calls.
double that of Prepaid for 3 Quarters now.
The ratio of Prepaid to Postpaid has
changed from 74.5: 25.5 in September 2004 The market will see benefits for the
to 72:28 currently. Clearly the higher uptake Integrated Players like Bharti, Reliance and
of postpaid is a clear sign of a maturing BSNL who have their own NLD and ILD
market. GSM players have begun offering backbone and can push the rates
easy credit and attractive schemes on southwards.
Postpaid, while CDMA Players Look focused
on their Prepaid Offerings. The tariff decline would see an increase in
the Average Call Holding Time and thus
would lead to an increase in the overall
traffic on the networks. This would definitely
lead to a revenue enhancement, however
20
the increase in traffic will be much more than also going to force operators reduce
the increase in the revenue. roaming costs.
Operators will try to open new sources of Gaming is an area typically unexplored by
revenue. Currently VAS accounts for 6% of Indian operators. More games are expected
the total Mobile revenue. We expect this to come through; however, it will still take
figure to rise to at least 10% of the Total some more time for Multiplayer Network
VAS revenue. GPRS which accounts for 5% based games to come because of
of the Non-Voice Revenue would increase unavailability of supporting networks.
its share partly because of wider reach and However, this will be seen mostly in the
more because of a gradual shift from a Flat Metros and Circle A.
Rate Unlimited Access to Volume based
billing. More and more content will come up on the
The Roaming revenue would come under Operator controlled portals and they will
immense pressure due to competition from have to come up with bundled schemes of
CDMA Players and BSNL. India One is Multiple downloads for a lower charge per
download to encourage usage.
Figure 6.1: Movement in Mobility
21
Broadband and Internet
The next year will see more actual Growth in the demand will be driven by IT/ITES sector.
terms of number of subscribers. But the We will see further reduction in IPLC prices
target of government of 6 million broadband by 45 to 55%. Price reduction will be more
subscribers is unlikely to be met at the end on higher capacities like STM-1 and DS-3.
of year 2006. This year the operators will Total bandwidth consumption will increase,
concentrate more on increasing penetration primarily driven by growth in IT/ITeS sector
as well as creating a need for broadband. and increase in broadband penetration. We
Operators will try to position broadband as a can see innovative pricing techniques like
value addition on plain internet service in usage based billing on IPLC in the next
terms of applications as well as data rate. year.
Competition will increase in ILD voice
Positioning of broadband will change from market because of private players and
medium of fast Internet access to a medium BSNL s ILD plans. Internet telephony will
which passes rich entertainment experience continue to be the major chunk of ILD voice
in the metro areas. In the emerging markets market. We predict that Internet telephony
it would remain as plain internet access will have 50 to 55% market share. Taking
medium. serious note of this trend we will see more
ILD operators coming up with Internet
This section takes a look at four areas of telephony services.
broadband in India and these are: Access,
National Backbone, International Bandwidth
and Regulation for the time frame of Oct 05
to Oct 06.
ILD & Bandwidth Market
Figure 7.2: Factors affecting reduction in

ILD prices
NLD Market
We will see new players like Hutch-Essar in
the market. Hutch Essar will operate on the
Figure 7.1: Factors affecting Reduction non-facility based model, using existing
in bandwidth prices infrastructure of NLD players. VSNL will
focus more on NLD plans because of its
falling share in ILD market. BSNL will
We will continue to see an excess capacity continue to expand its NLD infrastructure.
scenario in International bandwidth coming NIB II is already live, and now BSNL is
to India. The same is because of two new planning on VAS on the network for Major
cables viz Falcon and SEA-ME-WE4 will Cities. Private NLD operators like TATA will
begin operation in this year. There will be be concentrating on eastern part of the
more capacity on eastward route. The country. As the cellular operators will
excess capacity will bring down the prices concentrate on Circle B & C they will be
by 45-50%. As far as demand is concerned sharing infrastructure of players like BSNL,
22
GAIL, Railtel etc who are having good government is on the cards in the Telecom
infrastructure in rural and eastern parts of Policy (NTP-2005) which is due for such as.
the country. Enterprise segment especially The tax rate on computers has been
BFSI sector will prefer to use MPLS for reduced to 4% from the previous level of
network connectivity. We can see reduction 12% and would fall further in accordance
in price of domestic leased line. In the with the WTO guidelines of 0% tax rate.
enterprise segment trend to use VoIP for
inter office communication will continue to Applications
grow which may affect NLD traffic but overall
NLD traffic will grow because of growth in The growing reach of broadband services in
teledensity, increase in broadband terms of installations and affordability will
penetration, and possible implementation of prompt the operators to focus on delivering
flat STD rates. more value for money in terms of increasing
the applications and services. The major
Regulations applications that will be launched in India for
the next one year will be Entertainment
Regulations in India are still considered to based applications like IPTV and Video on
be not favourable for the growth of Demand due to the changing in the
broadband. TRAI, the apex regulatory body, consumer mindset towards entertainment
has given certain recommendations for based services. Operators like BSNL and
growth of broadband in India in Broadband MTNL along with reliance after increasing
Policy 2004. We expect certain positive subscribers and coverage will focus more on
moves for broadband in NTP-2005. One applications like IPTV and Video on
positive move in this direction would demand. Next Year will witness the launch
possibly be the significant reduction of duty of IPTV and video on demand on selective
on broadband equipment from current rate basis preferably in metros and A circles.
of 35%. This will help in proliferation of Broadband over cable companies like
broadband in India. One such positive move Hathway and Iqura will also consider
can be more liberal policies related to VoIP, delivering entrainment over their broadband
which is seen as a major application on the over cable platform. Next year will witness
broadband networks, driving growth. TRAI s the selective launch of certain applications in
Recommendation regarding LLU is not India only in some high growth market of
expected by the government in the next one metros and circle A, but DSL will be the
year because of pressure from the preferred platform for launching these
incumbents on government. TRAI however applications. For rest of the India plain
will continue to push Local Loop Unbundling. vanilla internet services will be the preferred
applications over broadband for the next one
TRAI will continue to recommend a year.
reduction in service charge for Broadband
usage. Government is likely to accept this in Access
next telecom policy keep in mind the growth
target set by broadband policy 2004. Open Broadband is really an access side game
sky policy for VSAT and DTH operators will and we will look at access on two fronts:
continue to remain a debatable issue in Enterprise segment and Consumer
India and a conclusive policy in this regard is segment. We expect aggressive moves on
very unlikely to be passed by next year due both these fronts.
to security and other issues. TRAI will
continue to push open sky policy keeping in In the consumer segment DSL is going to be
mind the benefits of open sky policy, leading the technology at the forefront of delivering
to faster subscriber growth. broadband services and it is going to get an
aggressive push from the incumbents who
The forthcoming policies and budgets would will continue to enjoy the benefits of the
continue to focus on making broadband favourable regulation on Local Loop
services accessible hence reduction in Unbundling and will emerge as the key
duties and taxes imposed by the drivers for broadband growth. The DSL
23
access side investments would see an segment will certainly benefit from the
uptake with the fixed line operators focusing slashing of prices.
on increasing penetration who would try and
have a pan India coverage of DSL services. Internet over cable market in India has
With the interplay of factors like heightening started to organize in India. Next one year
competition in the market, aggressive BSNL will witness consolidations in this arena and
rollout plans and the expected fall in existing players like Hathway, Iqura and Zee
equipment prices the tariff structure is going will rollout their service in metros and circle
to undergo a significant amount of change A.
form the present levels and the consumer
* Size of the circle represents Proliferation
Figure 7.3: Access technologies outlook in 2006
24
EVDO can be an attractive option for entry promoted by reliance and Tata as an
into the rural market with the scope of alternative to cable and DSL.
addition to the existing available CDMA
spectrum for deployment. Possible EVDO Satellite based broadband technologies like
trail deployments could take place VSAT and DTH will be selectively deployed
predominantly in the rural market and but the pace of deployment will be driven by
marginally in urban areas subject to demand from the BFSI sector and promotion
spectrum availability. by players like HECL.
From the business perspective there would

Access Value for
be an uptake of wireless connectivity as an Technology Money
Proliferation Investments
option for broadband access among the
corporate boosted by the Banking and 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006
Financial sector and hence Wireless LAN
would emerge as a high growth sector. The DSL M M++ M H M M++
key driver for the growth of Wi-Fi usage
would be the level of penetration which Wi- WiFi L++ M L L++ L L++
Fi enabled notebooks would be able to
achieve in the forthcoming year. Other Cable L L++ L L+ L L++
drivers being the fall in the equipment prices
and aggressive hotspot rollout plans of WiMAX - L - L - L
major operators like Bharti, Sify and Dishnet.
EV-DO - L+ - L - L
FTTH due to its high deployment cost and
less promotion by the operators will still be Metro L L+ L L+ L L++
the lagging technology in terms of Ethernet
deployment. Its distant cousin FTTC with

VSAT L++ M L L+ L L
metro Ethernet will be aggressively
L - Low M – Medium H - High
• Excess Capacity will bring down prices of international bandwidth by 45-50 %
• New Players will enter into NLD market by leasing capacity from other
operators
• DSL is going to get an aggressive push from the incumbents
• Significant reduction of duty on broadband equipment from current rate of 35%.
• Deployment of IPTV and video on demand will occur on selective basis
preferably in metros and A circles.
• EVDO trail deployments could take place predominantly in the rural market and
marginally in urban areas subject to spectrum availability.
25
dominated by players like CSG,
Telecom Software SchlumbergerSema, ADC, Convergys and
Eftia. Mobile and private fixed-line operators
accounted for Rs 125 crore of the overall
With more and more service providers spend, with new service providers like
entering the market and rapidly expanding Reliance and Tata Indicom taking a large
their services, the demand for Operations share of this pie.
Support System/ Business Support System
(OSS/BSS) and Network Management Billing remained the single largest
Software (NMS) has grown exponentially. component, though Revenue Assurance
To sustain themselves in this highly also gained in importance. Two new
competitive market, service providers need demand areas in the OSS space came into
to invest in infrastructure, improve quality of the limelight, the first being fixed-line service
service, network efficiency and billing providers offering broadband and data
solutions. services, as also GSM service providers
who have started managing GPRS networks
The Rs 175 crore OSS/BSS market saw in in tandem. The second flavor of the year,
play some interesting dynamics. While with cases of unpaid dues increasing, was
Indian vendors like Wipro, Infosys, TCS & Fraud Management.
Subex were busy catering to Foreign
Service Providers, the domestic market was
Figure 8.1: Decision Matrix for Telecom

Software
Billing will catch up, albeit slowly with BSNL

becoming the pioneer in this field. We
Service providers worldwide and in India will predict investments in convergent billing
definitely start using Billing more as a next year because of following trends.
strategic tool rather than as operational
software. Service providers are offering multi-play
services over heterogeneous platforms to
Convergent Billing i.e. producing a single different subscribers like residential,
invoice for all services used by the customer business, SOHOs and others.
26
The billing or revenue model is moving from Investments in billing software are going to
usage and/or distance-based to various be on Incremental Licenses as well as we
others like flat rate, pay-per-use, premium, will see fresh investments by new operators
third party/content provider driven. like ESSAR Spacetel & Dishnet Wireless.
Very strong identity management is needed We predict investments in billing software by

to enable the usage of various services by a ISPs for VOIP services used by retail
subscriber from the same device and global customers to make international calls. This
location. will be fuelled by broadband growth and
reduction in call charges.
Different service usages have to be billed
based on various rate plans, various service Revenue Assurance
providers to the subscriber on the same bill.
Study has proven that carriers lose 10% or
Increase in the complexity of value chains of more of their revenues to leakage. Revenue
Telco s will lead to more number of channels assurance continues to grow in importance
thereby enabling service providers billing as and is rising up the corporate agenda.
a great operational pain point. This fact
would definitely be understood and taken Next-generation services like GPRS and
care of by almost all the billing vendors as EDGE, which involves complex technologies
they would try to sell their software across and are potentially more susceptible to
the value chain leading to a true convergent fraud. To counter this, operators will be
platform. investing in Revenue Assurance systems
which would further take care of the
Prepaid-Postpaid convergence seems to be following operational pain points of a service
a distant proposition, since it is a constraint provider such as switch to bill reconciliation,
for service providers from the operational parsing failures, bad correlation, collection
point of view. failures and inability of the billing system to
process the Call Detail Records (CDRs).
Outsourcing of maintenance of billing The Revenue Assurance systems should be
systems i.e. Service Bureau Model is likely capable of extracting CDRs from the billing
to catch in India, albeit slowly with operators systems and re-rate them effectively. It
gaining confidence in vendors & System should be modular in nature and would be
Integrators. platform independent so that there are no
OSS integration issues. We expect
A lot of investments is likely to happen on incremental investments in this area as the
integrating Billing systems with other ARPU s keep decreasing and the operators
software modules like CRM, Financial fight out to earn a fair rate of return on their
Investment etc.(bharti,hutch) investments.
BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) will be the We expect new modules of Revenue
dominant mode of investments in billing Assurance like the Proactive Revenue
systems for Value Added Services (VAS). Assurance Scenario Builders, which allow
the operator to build realistic scenarios to
The trend towards Centralized Billing curb revenue leakages, based on the
Systems will increase with integrated existing leakage data.
telecom players like BSNL, TTSL moving
towards billing from 1 or 2 locations from Another important evolution would be the
India. Integration of revenue assurance system
with various operational elements such as
Content Based billing with emphasis on Order Entry, Provisioning, Activation,
actual usage rather than flat fee models will Inventory Management System, Network
gain ground especially for broadband and Billing.
applications like gaming, etc.
27
Fraud Management Managed network services will be another
growth area in telecom. Today the trend is to
A rupee saved is a rupee earned. Almost all offer better SLAs to customers with the eyes
the mobile operators are losing revenue in towards customer s retention. We expect
the course of their daily operations, and increased utilization of fault and
recent studies point to losses as high as performance management system by the
15% of total turnover. telcos to improve service quality. It is
expected not only to voice based service
We predict increase in investments of Fraud providers but also of ISPs. We expect year
Management Software for all telecom 2005 to see an increase in managed
environments such as Wireline (PSTN, ISP, services outsourcing.
VoIP), Wireless (2G, 2.5G) and across all
services i.e. postpaid, prepaid, VAS, MMS, Customer Care (Web Self Care)
and m-Commerce.
In case of customer care we see trends
The focus will be investing in modules of towards self-care and Electronic Bill
FMS for plugging the Non-Technical Fraud Presentment and Payment (EBPP). We
since it constitutes the largest chunk of fraud expect to see a lot of integration happening
prevalent today. The leading fraud vendors with regards to this particular domain. Either
like Subex Systems, Azure Solutions etc. they would be sold as an additional module
will definitely focusing on making FMS as a with the billing software product or will be a
plug and play device. There can be a total front-end tool. We do not expect to see a
revamp in the policies of the service stand-alone product offering from any of the
providers especially in the post paid vendors, as of now. This is due to the
segment for control of non-technical fraud. convergence of networks and services. We
We can expect investments in newly expect new investment in service creation
developed fraud management modules that and provisioning modules.
allow monitoring of non-technical frauds in
the pre-paid segments. CRM solutions will continue to remain as the
focal point for a single point of contact.
Infrastructure Management Though it results in duplication of systems,
Systems databases, and staff and creates problems
in providing good service to the customers
because of the lack of integration between
There is a huge potential market among these systems.
telecom businesses. 60 percent of them
have a LAN in place and of these about 33 The CRM solutions will be focused on the
percent have WANs. This represents a large Reduction of Customer Churn and
market for NMS (Network Management Reduction in the Time to Deliver Service.
Systems) software. The network
management needs of small businesses are
not very mature. Thus NMS is going to be a Trends will be towards OSS system
major area of focus in India with equipment addressing customer self services, and e-
vendors providing most of NMS Solutions. commerce and m-commerce activities from
ordering, fulfillment to billing; and finally,
With all service providers busy expanding legacy/existing investments need to be
infrastructure and building capacity we protected.
expect investments in integrated service
management. Many large service providers Business Intelligence
will adopt the Service Management
Platforms. We expect telecom service providers to
invest in Business intelligence solutions
coming from functionality like churn
28
management, marketing automation and such within the next year while existing BI
segmentation management. enterprise users will consider expanding
their BI investments.
We expect investments happening in
inclusion of analytics within the technology, New Focus Areas
a new milestone in the evolution of CRM.
The concept of analytics comes from the
world of business intelligence; it is a real- A lot of investments will happen in mobile
time tool for converting raw data into data services this year with BREW being the
something that can be used to support leading platform on which mobile
business decisions. applications will be developed.
We predict that companies that have The emphasis of investments will be on

implemented applications such as ERP, intelligent mediation systems which are
supply chain management, or data scalable, flexible and much more powerful
warehouses often face a situation where than those of circuit switched networks.
they have a huge amount of data and
information but no helping tool or clearly In service provisioning, we predict gradual
defined map, which can be put to use for Replacement of real time legacy systems by
making strategic decisions. This is where we shell script based real time new systems.
predict that BI would come in. (BSNL,MTNL)
There is a good growth in BI spending We see a lot of investment happening in

trends in India. New users will evaluate BI storage area solutions as data generated by
technologies more closely and engage in telcos is increasing leaps and bounds
29
Communication infrastructure
Introduction Mobile Handsets
Infrastructure is the entity that makes The introduction of low-end handsets

communication real. It is an integral part of costing around US $20 to US $30 by many
any service deployed by the service provider Handset Manufacturers and Vendors is
to the consumer. expected to increase the total handset sales
phenomenally.
We have broadly classified telecom
infrastructure into the segments mentioned With the increasing demand for Data
below. This section aims at looking at the services sales of GPRS and EDGE enabled
growth and the prices in the next one year in handsets will increase. This will also help
each of these segments because of various the internet enabled and PDA s sales.
factors like market dynamics, service
provider plans and government regulations. The next year is also expected to witness
the rise in demand for the feature rich and
Mobile Infrastructure high aspect ratio handsets due to further
reduction in prices.
Mobile Infrastructure revenues will continue In the coming year there will be large
to grow the next year, in spite of further fall investments in India by all major Equipment
in the prices of equipment. The trend will Manufacturers in the field of Production and
continue due to the Cellular service R&D Facilities.
Operators plans for expansion in existing
and newer circles.
Fixed line and broadband
If the IndiaOne plan is enforced buy the infrastructure
government, the Chinese vendors are
expected to strengthen their current We see that the fixed line infrastructure
positions and continue the strong growth, as would be continuing in the growth trend as
the operators would look to reduce the the players are using value added services
CAPEX and turn to the Chinese Vendors for such as ring tones and picture messaging
realizing it. on wire line phones as a method to revert
the customers back to landline phones.
The investment by the operators would Deployment of services like video, voice and
increase in the GPRS and EDGE technology data on one platform and services like
to form the basis of Business Feasibility of broadband, triple play and high speed
the 3G services. The investment in CDMA internet on fixed line would be a lucrative
infrastructure too is expected to continue the business in the near future and this would
current growth trends. force the service providers to invest in fixed
line infrastructure.
A small amount of investments can be We see that there would be deployment of
expected in upgradation from CDMA 2000 IP technology on wire line infrastructure and
1x to EVDO. this would decrease the per line cost by 60-
70%. We see that fixed line would be
The demand for Data (Air) Cards are reaching the rural by the use of metro-
expected to show a strong growth owing to Ethernet.
the strong growth in demand for Data We also see that Wi-Max would be used to
Services provide communication to the rural and the
urban areas as a last mile technology. We
see that the penetration of DSL as the
30
broadband access technology would are no licensing issues and therefore can be
increase with the fall in DSLAM prices. easily implemented by anybody even in a
We see that the prices of access small office or at home which again will aid
points and laptops would further come in the growth of Wi-Fi equipment. Imminent
down. Key buyers of WLan Equipment will opportunities for WLAN are VoWLAN as
be SOHO /Home segment. Fixed Mobile Convergence is being
Separate fixed line and broadband implemented on Wi-Fi. Wi-Fi growth will be
mainly driven by Institutional demand with
VSAT institutions going in for personal wireless
networks in their premises.
Indian VSAT market has been growing at a
very positive rate with the reduction in the VoIP
terminal and hub prices.
IP telephony market will witness a huge
The major contributors being Stock Market upsurge in the next year. Enterprises are
and brokering Segments, Banking and beginning to see the value in using IP
Financial Sectors, Retail and Distribution telephony because of its cost- effectiveness,
Channels, e-Chaupal. easy deployment, and management. VOIP
We expect this trend to follow next year also will witness institutional investment next
and the VSAT industry should witness a year. There is a huge opportunity in diverse
healthy growth. Key reasons behind it are as verticals like banking and financial services,
follows ISPs, system integrators, government
bodies, and the oil industry. But it is in the IT
• ISRO expected to expand and and ITeS service industry where the major
launch HealthSat use of VoIP solutions can be seen.
• DTH and Broadcasting The RoI for an IP phone deployment is
• Distance Education usually very quick, about six to 12 months.
• Digital Cinema With Indian enterprises being extremely
price sensitive, this is an important reason
Broadband Policy 2004 Listed VSAT as an why many enterprises will adopt IP
Important medium to provide High Speed telephony.
Internet.
VSAT is a effective solution for the

Softswitches/ Media Gateways
penetrating into the rural India
Telecom Operators using VSAT in their Things are moving a little slower then
backbone elsewhere. While vendors were always
optimistic, it is only in the past one year that
The competition in the VSAT industry will be soft switches have gained any serious
on the equipment prices as the bandwidth traction among Indian service providers with
prices are regulated by ISRO and are almost all of them doing trials with different
unlikely to come down with no signs of Open vendors. 2006 would be year when major
Sky Policy. Hence we expect that VSAT deployment of soft switches would happen.
terminal and hub prices will witness further The thrust is likely to come from BSNL s
southward trends and operators will adopt side. It has already floated a huge tender
this strategy to remain competitive. What is interesting is that BSNL is keen to
deploy soft switches that should have
capability to support class 5 features as and
Wi-Fi when IP is introduced in the access network
of BSNL. But this is unlikely to happen in the
Equipments cost are coming down. 4 port next year
Wireless routers come as cheap as $47. We also foresee a distributed architecture of
Access points come at around the same media gateways next year.
price. Laptops with Wi-Fi cards are now IP PBX
available for as low as $500. Wi-fi operates
in the unlicensed band of 2.4 GHz, so there
31
Year 2006 would also witness a huge include operational expenditure and capital
growth in the IP PBX market. IPPBX allows expenditure savings on the part of
transformation from digital, circuit-switched customers, as well as the capability to
voice communications toward a deploy new productivity-enhancing
convergence of voice and data applications, such as unified messaging.
communications networks, signified by the Hence the replacement market comprised of
use of Internet Protocol and packet IP-based systems is expected to grow much
switching as the underlying communications faster
technology. Factors driving this growth
32
Social Impact of Technology
knowledge, better connectivity, faster
This whitepaper is aimed at studying the role communication and many more; but also
of technology (more specifically the ICT) in technology can have an indirect impact by
influencing the behavioural pattern of society acting as an enabler for a particular industry
(an organized & interdependent community) sector which in turn has a very powerful
and society s response towards technology impact upon the society as in case of media
under various market scenarios. and entertainment industries.
Utility of a tool is ultimately determined by its Such direct and indirect impacts are taken
user; similarly a technology though care of in this report and the related model is
developed with full chastity of intention is as shown below.
equally likely to be misused, as it is likely to
be used. We have tried to cover such
issues of use and misuse of technology in
this report. Further it is observed that a
technology may have a direct impact upon
the society in terms of increased level of
TECHNOLOGY
ENABLER PACIFIER
INTERDEPENDENCE
NEED / WANTS
INDUSTRY SOCIETY
SOLUTIONS
Figure 10.1: Society, Industry, Technology Interdependence Model

digital cinema in India, the impacts
associated would be-
Entertainment: • Drop in video piracy
• Increase in viewership due to
The entertainment and media industry to
simultaneous release in multiple
grow (growth rate: 18%-20%) faster
screens and low cost involved due
than GDP growth(6.9%) and
to savings from avoiding reprint
consequently more spending from
cost.
almost every sector of society is
expected on leisure and Entertainment. • Shortening of movie life cycle
(Pressure to recover the production
cost in first week itself).
Various aggressive initiatives towards
the development of DIGITAL CINEMA • Cable TV growth is expected to slow
in various parts of the country is down from 10% (subscriber base of
expected to accelerate the growth of 55mn households in May 2005).
DTH emerges as a promising
solution of this problem and is
33
expected to eat the share of cable • Motorola demonstrated a unique e-
operators thereby observing a drift education project at Rashtrapati
in the cable subscribers towards Bhavan (Dt8/25/2005 3:58:08 PM
DTH. IST) through its wireless broadband
solution Canopy using i-Grandee
• Growth of pay per song kind of Software. This initiative will enable
trend. school children in remote areas
access to quality education.
• Growth of voice blogs in 2006
(POD-Casting i.e. Broadcasting of Growing models: Distance-learning centres
one s voice over internet and that being used as cyber cafes to boost the
too almost at next to nothing cost). earnings of educational institution. These
funds are further utilized for the
infrastructure development of the institution.
• Innovative initiatives like those of
Airtel clubbing with KBC2, led to
0.7mn SMSs on Airtel network in Employment & Economic well
first phase of its 2 week promotional
period itself. Earlier the responses being
for the entry question were accepted • Because of India s status as a good
through a phone call only. IT hub for outsourcing by U.S.
companies, young Indians between
Such kind of model reflects the capability of 20 to 24 years old, who ordinarily
SMS service to eat up some 1.5%-2.0% wouldn't be able to find work easily,
revenue share of Voice in 2006; not only are finding jobs with call centres
because of such innovations but also straight out of college. This is a
because of various technical reasons consumer base that typically lives at
contributing towards higher ROI from SMS home, with the family. Now they
as compared to the Voice call. have disposable income that s
totally discretionary and about 20%
Education to 30% higher than prevailing
wages, which they are spending on
books, movies, music, cell phones,
Internet played a crucial role in establishing
food and branded clothes.
symmetry of information and enabling
students to take more informed decisions &
Economic Benefits of the projects
will continue to do so in future as well.
like Akshaya , Kerela:
• Literacy level to cross the 82% mark
• The Setting up of the centres itself is
by 2011(with a conservative growth
aimed at encouraging private
rate of 25% as against 20% during
entrepreneurs. Each centre needs
the period 1991-2001).
three to four trainers. Thus, the 552
centres would generate about 3,000
• Growth rate ( on YOY basis) in
jobs and investment worth Rs.30
distance education will cross 50%
crores.
mark which hovered around 10% in
the past decade.
• The ultimate aim is to set up 9,000
Akshaya e-centres networking 300 lakh
• E-learning to be the major
people across 60 lakh households. It is
contributor.
expected to create over 50,000 job
opportunities and attract investments
Thrust due to 10th 5 yr plan, global trends,
worth Rs. 5 crores.
Other national projects like, Akshay
(Kerela), Gyandoot(MP), CBFL(by TCS) &
now the latest:
34
Social Bonding & Needs
Crime & Technology
Express Yourself!
• Mc Guire s Need for self In the last few years, technology in the area
expression is well addressed with of electronic communication has developed
the growth of technology and will to such an extent that it is capable of being
continue to play a major role in misused and abused. The Information
empowering masses to Express Technology Act of 2000 is not really
themselves . equipped to deal with the day-to-day
problems of offensive electronic messages.
The shift from a check-box based opinion Some of the issues related to the misuse
section on a website, to the accelerated and use of technology are analyzed next few
growth of Data blogs & Voice blogs and paragraphs.
innumerable online discussion forums.
MMS
Matrimony
Any form of electronic communication which
The number of matrimonial site subscribers tends to/intends to outrage the modesty of
has registered a growth of 77 percent since a person, or infringes on personal or family
2003.This rate is expected to grow at yet relationships is an invasion of privacy.
higher rate as even traditional families are Year 2005 was flooded with a number of
found resorting to such sites. Over 4 million MMS scandals.
online matrimonial search subscribers in It seems, mobile pornography is here to stay
2004 have shown that they find the Internet and the right to privacy is clearly the victim.
as a viable medium for looking for eligible
brides and grooms.
Piracy Impact of Technology to Check

Female Foeticide:
India Entertainment Industry looses around
40%-42% of its annual revenue due to Information Communication Technologies
piracy. (ICTs) apart from sensitising people against
this practice, can also play a highly
Music Piracy interventionist role by
• Proactively pursuing cases against
Since past few years seizure in number of
erring doctors.
pirated music CDs grew at a rate of more
• As well as helping people in general
than 70% against a drop of around 35%(on
change their opinion about the value
YOY basis) in the number of seized pirated
of a girl child.
cassettes thereby reflecting a shift in the
preferential usage of optical storage media
A Web site established by the Datamation
over magnetic storage for the propagation
Foundation Charitable Trust and dedicated
of music piracy.
solely to the issue of female feticide is an
important tool helping the government of
Software Piracy
India accomplish its cherished goal of
stopping female feticide altogether. It takes
India comes within top 20 countries on the
care of-
basis of piracy rate of 73%(data of 2004) (
Piracy rate: The number of pirated software
Regulatory aspects, a section on
units divided by the total number of units put
complaint lodging process & Medical
into use).World average: 71% Vietnam &
Council of India's code of conduct to
China tops the list with 92% piracy
crack down on sex selection
To date the Foundation has received about

580 complaints, and has passed these to
35
respective authorities. The interpretation of that although the misuses of technology
the law in form of demographic data is also tends to creep in faster than the rate at
put on the Web site which the uses of it are identified; yet the
Through e-mails, to date the Foundation has survival or the success of a technology is
sensitised 8 million people worldwide on this ensured if the sum total of uses outperforms
issue the misuses as depicted in the graph
It is clear that technology can trigger both
uses as well as misuses. It is also observed
Figure 10.2: Survival of Technology
36
www.education.nic.in
References www.ey.com
www.federalreserve.gov
Articles From Following News www.fedstats.gov
Services www.finmin.nic.in
www.garamchai.com
Times news network www.globalissues.org
Press Trust of India www.google.news.com
Reuters www.humanlinks.com
www.ibef.org
Documents and Magazines www.ieg.org
www.imf.org
Voice and Data Magazine Issues www.indiainfoline.com
Tele.Net Magazine October 2004- www.indianchild.com
August 2005 www.inseadinnovasia.com
Telecom Live Magazine Dec. 2004- www.latin-focus.com
August 2005 www.marketwire.com
www.mindbranch.com
Websites www.mospi.nic.in
www.nationmaster.com
http://canadianeconomy.gc.ca www.nationmaster.com
http://inflationdata.com www.networkworld.com
http://unstats.un.org www.oecd.org
www.abnamro.com www.outlookindia.com
www.airtelenterprise.com www.rbi.org.in
www.auspi.org www.relianceinfo.com
www.bankofengland.co.uk/ www.ril.com
www.bea.gov www.sebi.gov.in
www.Bloomburg.com www.siliconindia.com
www.bsnl.co.in www.sior.com
www.bsnl.in www.statcan.ca
www.business-standard.com www.statistics.gov.uk/
www.business-standard.com www.stat-usa.gov/
www.census.gov www.teledata.com
www.censusindia.net www.thehindubusinessline.com
www.ciionline.org www.thomson.net.
www.cmie.com www.trai.gov.in
www.coai.com www.un.org
www.consensuseconomics.com www.unece.org
www.csmonitor.com www.voicendata.com
www.datamationindia.com www.worldbank.org
www.economictimes.com
www.economist.com
www.economist.com
www.eda.gov/
37
About SITM
We are a business school that is rapidly evolving into a center for learning excellence in
the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) domain. We have a short history of t e n
years, but have already made our presence felt in the ICT industry. Over e i g h t hundred of our
alumni are tirelessly contributing to the growth of organizations throughout the ICT value chain in
India and abroad. This is because we work in an intensive course framework designed
to equip future managers with the knowledge of General Management, Telecom
Technologies, Finance, Software, Marketing, Branding and a deeper understanding of Market
Dynamics.
Our learning effort is partial to hands on approach. Our learned and eminent members of the
Board of Studies keep our curriculum contemporary through biannual revisions. The gurus of
SITM are a potent mix of academicians, domain experts and practicing professionals. Our
students and faculty work closely with each other, apart from academics, under various
committees. Every student has an active exposure to committee activities. Hence we have
ample opportunity to refine crucial managerial and organizational skills like accountability,
teamwork, work breakdown / allocation, business communication, contingency planning, and
change and crisis management. This ability is tested and refined to the utmost in all SITM
events. We regularly participate in many regional and national level Business School
competitions and have a very good track record of emerging as winners. SITM students are also
taught the value of their social obligations and actively participate in social work activities. It is
our constant endeavour to improve upon our past performances, which is the reason for our
quick progress, and so shall it remain.
38
Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management
Atur Center, Gokhale Cross Road
Model Colony
Pune, India 411016
PSTN +91 020 5629 1377

+91 020 2567 4150
www.sitm.ac.in
analyst@symbiosistelecom.com
Disclaimer
In no event shall Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune; hereafter referred to as
SITM, be liable for any indirect, punitive, incidental, special, or consequential damages arising out
of or in any way with any content (or any material provided hereunder), whether based on
contract, tort, strict liability, or otherwise, even if SITM has been advised of the possibility of
damages.
All rights reserved. This document is the sole property of SITM. No part of it may be circulated,
quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of SITM.
39
Verticals Vertical Heads
SITM Forecast
Research Team
Global Economy Adarsh
analyst@symbiosistelecom.com
Faculty In Charge
Prasanna Kulkarni
(Sr. Faculty, Finance) Global Telecom Manisha Maheshwari
Industry Mentors
Kundan Das (Huawei Indian Economy Rajat Khanna

Technologies)
Rahul Sharma (MBT)
Aniruddha Harne (MBT)
Indian Telecom Shaibal Mitra
Student In Charge
Pankaj K Gupta
Telecom Technology Arjun Rajagopalan
Forecast Presenters
Arjun Rajagopalan
Mobile Industry Nikhlesh Agrawal
Vishakha Saigal
White Paper Editors
Rajat Khanna
Broadband & Internet Deepak Gambhir
Sanjeev Nawani
Power Point Presentation
Deepesh Sodhi Telecom Software Ashish Bhuta

Sumit Kumar
Web Presence
Communication Sauradeep Das
Deepesh Sodhi Infrastructure
Sumit Kumar
Social Impact of Vivek Lohani

Technology
40

Annual Telecom Forecast 2006

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Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management

Annual Telecom Forecast

Oct 2005 Sep 2006

(Presented on October 08, 2005 at National Telecom Seminar:

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................ii

List of Figures .........................................................................................................................vii

Global Telecom .........................................................................................................................5

Indian Economy ........................................................................................................................9

Indian Telecom ........................................................................................................................12

Broadband and Internet ..........................................................................................................22

Social Impact of Technology ..................................................................................................33

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

In Western Europe because of negative

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

Mobile Industry Telecom Software

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

Vital drivers for the above would be new

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

Figure 1.1: Factors affecting consumer spending _____________________________________ 1

Figure 2.1: Global Technology Landscape 2006 ______________________________________ 8

Figure 3.1: Sector wise GDP Contribution ___________________________________________ 9

Figure 3.2: Economic Value Indicators_____________________________________________ 11

Figure 4.1: Teledensity Projections _______________________________________________ 12

Figure 6.1: Movement in Mobility _________________________________________________ 21

Figure 7.1: Factors affecting Reduction in bandwidth prices ___________________________ 22

Figure 7.2: Factors affecting reduction in ILD prices __________________________________ 22

Figure 7.3: Access technologies outlook in 2006 _____________________________________ 24

Figure 8.1: Decision Matrix for Telecom Software ____________________________________ 26

Figure 10.1: Society, Industry, Technology Interdependence Model ______________________ 33

Figure 10.2: Survival of Technology _______________________________________________ 36

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

A study of consumption patterns across the

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

ASIA 3G is still far from achieving mainstream

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

Figure 2.1: Global Technology Landscape 2006

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

The services sector has emerged as the

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

Consumers in India are in no mood to stop

Figure 3.2: Economic Value Indicators

© Copyright 2005, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune.

Teledensity Forecast till Sep 2006

A large gamut of activities is expected to One plan, there would be a significant

will see benefits for the Integrated Players

Mobile Telecom Entry Strategy

• Access Bharti, BSNL/MTNL have a pan India

EvDO will be targeted mainly at two WCDMA

Broadband Access The VSAT will grow comparatively more due

We can expect a gradual and a local level Soft Switches

The DWDM will continue to remain as Enterprise Switches

With the opening of the BREW developer Differentiating Applications: Triggered by