IEA - Monthly Oil Market Report

12 October 2011
HIGHLIGHTS
Oil futures tracked latest economic developments amid the

worsening European debt crisis, which triggered downward price
movesthroughoutSeptember.Pricespartiallyrecoveredonrenewed
optimism that European leaders would address eurozone financing
issues,withWTIlasttradingat$84.50/bblandBrentnear$108/bbl.
Global oil demand is revised down by 50 kb/d for 2011 and by

210kb/dfor2012withlowerthanexpected3Q11readingsinthenon
OECDandadownwardadjustmenttoglobalGDPgrowthassumptions.
GlobalGDPgrowthisnowseenat3.8%in2011and3.9%in2012with
significant downside risks. Demand estimates stand at 89.2 mb/d in
2011(+1.0mb/dyoy)and90.5mb/din2012(+1.3mb/d).
Global oil supply fell by 0.3 mb/d to 88.7 mb/d in September from
August, due to nonOPEC outages. NonOPEC supply projections are
trimmedby0.3mb/dfor4Q11andby0.2mb/dfor2012,withannual
growthaveraging0.2mb/d,to52.8mb/d,and0.9mb/dto53.6mb/d
for2011and2012respectively.OPECNGLoutputaverages5.9mb/din
2011and6.3mb/din2012.
OPEC crude oil supply nudged down to 30.15 mb/d in September,

withlowerSaudiArabianandNigerianoutputpartlyoffsetbyresumed
Libyan supply. Output there reached 350 kb/d in early October and
capacityisassumedat600kb/dbyendyear.The4Q11callonOPEC
crudeandstockchangeisadjustedupby0.3mb/dto30.8mb/don
lowernonOPECsupply,withthe2012callunchangedat30.5mb/d.
OECDindustryoilstocksfellcounterseasonallyinAugustby3.4mb
to 2692 mb, or 58.4days of forward cover. Preliminary September
datasuggestafurther12.7mbdeclineinOECDindustrystocksanda
dropinshorttermfloatingstorage.OECDstockssinceJulyfellbelow
thefiveyearaverageforthefirsttimesinceJune2008.
Globalcruderunsestimatesfor3Q11and4Q11arereviseddownby
50 kb/d and 75 kb/d respectively versus last month. Lowerthan
expected Asian throughputs are partly offset by continued robust US
runs. Global throughputs now average 75.5 mb/d in 3Q11 and
75.3mb/din4Q11.Meanwhile,OECDrefineryrationalisationcontinues.
Programmer/Statistician
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental body committed to advancing security of energy
supply,economicgrowthandenvironmentalsustainabilitythroughenergypolicycooperation,isseekingtorecruit
anaccomplishedProgrammer/Statisticiantohelpmaintainandfurtherdevelopitsexistingstatisticaldatabasesand
oil market modeling capability. The successful applicant will work under the guidance of the Head of the Oil
IndustryandMarketsDivisionoftheIEA.
Youwillhave:
A university degree(s) in relevant quantitative disciplines, such as computer programming, statistics,
mathematics,economicsorengineering.
Strong IT skills developed over a number of years in an energy, finance or marketrelated working
environment.
Sound working knowledge of programming languages (VBA essential), and database software, and be highly
proficientinMSExcelandAccess.HighcompetencyintheuseofstatisticalmodelingsoftwaresuchasEViews
orequivalent.
Abilitytoworkwellunderextremelydemandingdeadlines.
Excellent level of oral and written communication skills and excellent drafting ability in English; a working
knowledgeofFrenchwouldbeanadvantage.
The full vacancy notice and online application form is available at www.oecd.org. Click on JobVacancies, (Job
Reference No. 7940 Programmer/Statistician Oil Market). Online applications (in English or French) from
nationalsofOECDMembercountriesshouldincludeaCVandcoveringletterandshouldbesubmittedbynolater
thanmidnight(CET)onFriday4November2011.
Pleasenotethatonlycandidatesselectedforinterviewwillbecontacted.
TheOECDisanequalopportunityemployerofferinganattractiveremunerationpackageand
encouragesapplicationsfromallqualifiedcandidates.
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Organisation de coopration et de dveloppement conomiques
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1
GETTING THE BALANCE RIGHT.......................................................................................................................................................................... 4
DEMAND ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Global Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
OECD ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
North America................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Europe................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 10
Pacific.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12
China .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Other Non-OECD .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
OPEC Crude Oil Supply ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Libya Flexes its Production Muscle ............................................................................................................................................................. 21
Non-OPEC Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
OECD ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
North America................................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
North Sea .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Asia ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Asia ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Middle East ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26
Former Soviet Union (FSU) .......................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Eastern Europe Looks Past the Druzhba......................................................................................................................................................... 28
Latin America ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
OECD STOCKS ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30
OECD Inventory Position at End-August and Revisions to Preliminary Data ........................................................................................ 30
From Peak to Trough in a Year, But Is This the Low-Point for Stocks Already? ............................................................................. 31
IEA Libya Collective Action: Accounting for Government Oil Inventories in August .................................................................... 32
Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes ...................................................................................................................................... 33
OECD North America................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
OECD Europe .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
OECD Pacific.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Recent Developments in China and Singapore Stocks ................................................................................................................................. 36
PRICES .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Market Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Futures Markets .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Commodities: No Longer an Asset Class in their Own Right? ............................................................................................................ 42
Spot Crude Oil Prices .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Spot Product Prices .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Refining Margins .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Review and Updates of US Refining Margin Model ................................................................................................................................. 48
End-User Product Prices in September ........................................................................................................................................................... 49
Freight ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
REFINING .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Global Refinery Throughput ............................................................................................................................................................................... 51
OECD Refinery Throughputs ............................................................................................................................................................................ 52
Record Product Exports Drive High US Runs ......................................................................................................................................... 54
Non-OECD Refinery Throughputs................................................................................................................................................................... 56
OECD Refinery Yields ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
TABLES ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59
M ARKET O VERVIEW
I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT
GETTING THE BALANCE RIGHT
This month, our supply/demand balance for 2012 remains largely unchanged, with markets being
swayed by both economic news from the eurozone and reports of recovering Libyan oil supply. Both
factorsremainhighlyuncertain,butwillshapemarketdynamicsoverthenext18months.Meanwhile,
participantsintheJointOrganisationsDataInitiative(JODI)metthisweekinBeijingtocelebrateJODIs
tenthanniversary.EnhancedcollaborationbetweenAPEC,Eurostat,IEA,IEF,OLADE,OPECandtheUN,
andtheconsolidationofmonthlyoildatasubmissionsareindeedgoodreasontocelebrate.JODIisbeing
extended to gas, and may one day cover investments or even reserves. A better understanding of
physicalmarketsrequiresimproveddata.Hugeprogresshasalreadybeenmadeinthelast10years,but
somereflectionbygovernments,statisticiansandoilanalystsonthequalityofexistingJODIandnational
oildataisinorder,acknowledgingwhatitmightcosttomakematerialimprovements.
We should not focus on shortcomings in oil market data without acknowledging that they are much
more complete than data for many other sectors. The OMRs Table 1 (page 59) summarises our best
estimatesofprevailingandlikelyfuturemarketfundamentals.Weexplicitlyacknowledgethegapsinour
historicalknowledgewiththemiscellaneoustobalance(MtB)itemthedifferencebetweenobserved
demand and supply, having taken account of recorded inventory and shipment changes. Others try to
mb/d
2.0
Quarterly Miscellaneous to Balance (MtB)

Negative MtB = non-OECD stockdraw,
demand lower than data suggest or
supply higher than data suggest
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Positive MtB = non-OECD stockbuild,
demand higher than data suggest or
supply lower than data suggest
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
massagethiscomponentawaybyforcingunaccountedbarrelsintosupplyordemand,orinferringnon
OECDstockchange.TheOMRusesMtBasacheckondataintegrity.Historicallyitaverageslessthan1%
of global demand, but doggedly hunting down this elusive, near1 mb/d of data error remains
important,asoilpriceshingeondevelopmentsatthemargin.RecentnegativebiasinMtBimpliesthat
data/estimatesmayoverstatedemand,understatesupply,thatnonOECDinventoryisbeingdrawnora
combination of all three. (It also argues against oil prices being driven higher by nonfundamental
factors,asaboveequilibriumpriceswouldtendtocausestockbuild.)
TheOMRandtheMonthlyOilDataService(MODS)showcaseIEAmembercountryofficialoilstatistics,
and are augmented by nonmember country data, market intelligence and analysts judgement for
currentmonth(M)andlastmonths(M1)data.Allthesedatapointsarethefoundationforprojections
of market fundamentals looking six to 18 months ahead. Good historical data dont guarantee good
forecasts, but nor can consistent, credible projections be generated without a solid baseline.
Government data that look inconsistent or unaccountably diverge from normal seasonal trends are
sometimes discarded. Official data are not always synonymous with good data. And useful though
existing weekly data are, (USA, Japan, Canada), a trade off exists between timeliness and reliability.
Beforepolicymakersdemandtoknowmoreaboutwhatisdrivingmarkets,theymustconsiderwhether
current resources and structures for gathering and processing oil market data are sufficient. Calls for
moreweeklyorM1dataarefine,butonlyifadequatelyresourcedtogeneratemeaningfulstatistics.
12 O CTOBER 2011
M ARKET O VERVIEW
In recent months OMR analysts have pursued data inconsistencies or omissions for Australia, Canada,
Japan, Korea, Kuwait, the Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan and Thailand, among others,
occasionally resulting in the resubmission of improved data. Routinely, OMR analysts also try to fill in
major gaps in coverage for crucial emerging markets like India (refinery operations data) and China
(inventory data, inferred demand, a large unofficial refining sector). The simple truth is that even
ongoing gains in data coverage, timeliness and reliability will still leave analysts scouring for missing
piecesofthepuzzle,applyingjudgementtocreateamarketbalancethatstacksup.Thatsallpartofthe
job,althoughbetter,moredetaileddataonChinesestocksorOPECcapacitywouldcertainlyhelp.
12 O CTOBER 2011
D EMAND
DEMAND
Summary
Forecast global oil demand is revised down by 50kb/d for 2011 and by 210kb/d for 2012, with
lowerthanexpected 3Q11 readings in the nonOECD and a downward adjustment to global GDP
growthassumptions.StrongerthanexpectedOECDmonthlysubmissions,primarilyinEuropeandthe
Pacificprovidesomeoffsettingsupport.Globaloildemandisexpectedtoriseto89.2mb/din2011
(+1.1%or+1.0mb/dyoy)andreach90.5mb/d(+1.4%or+1.3mb/d)in2012.
Global Oil Demand (2010-2012)

(million barrels per day)
Africa
Americas
Asia/Pacific
Europe
FSU
Middle East
World
Annual Chg (%)
Annual Chg (mb/d)
Changes from last OMR (mb/d)
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
29.5 30.0 30.5 30.2
27.2 26.9 26.7 28.3
15.0 14.9 15.6 15.5
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.6
7.4
7.8
8.3
7.7
86.8 87.4 89.0 89.7
2.6
3.2
3.4
3.4
2.2
2.7
2.9
3.0
0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
2010
3.4
30.1
27.3
15.3
4.5
7.8
88.2
3.2
2.7
0.00
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011

3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
30.0 29.8 30.2 30.0 30.0
28.6 27.4 27.7 29.0 28.2
14.9 14.8 15.4 15.3 15.1
4.5
4.6
4.9
4.7
4.7
7.6
8.0
8.4
7.8
7.9
88.9 88.0 89.8 90.2 89.2
2.5
0.6
0.9
0.6
1.1
2.2
0.6
0.8
0.5
1.0
-0.04 -0.08 -0.05 -0.01 -0.05
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
30.0 29.8 30.4 30.2 30.1
29.5 28.6 28.3 29.5 29.0
14.8 14.6 15.3 15.2 15.0
4.6
4.6
4.9
4.8
4.7
7.8
8.2
8.6
8.0
8.2
90.2 89.4 91.0 91.3 90.5
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.3
-0.20 -0.20 -0.25 -0.19 -0.21
Projected OECD demand for 2011 is now 45.8mb/d (0.7% or 320kb/d) for 2011 and 45.6mb/d
(0.6%or260kb/d)for2012.WehavecutGDPgrowthassumptionsfor2012acrossallthreeregions.
Nevertheless, strongerthanexpected 2011 data outweigh the GDP adjustments, with demand
revised up by 40kb/d this year and by 20kb/d next year. Some of the demand boost stems from
temporaryfactorssuchasseasonalheatingoiltankfilling,whileoilfiredpowergenerationinJapan
providesmorelastingupsidepotential.
Estimated nonOECD oil demand for 2011 and 2012 is revised down by 90kb/d and 230kb/d to
43.4mb/d (+3.1% or +1.3mb/d) and 44.9mb/d (+3.5% or +1.5mb/d), respectively. GDP growth
assumptionshavebeendowngradedacrossallregions,thoughtheyremainrelativelyunchangedfor
China. Lower than expected July/August oil readings in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America
combinedwiththeGDPadjustmentdrivethedemandrevisions.
Aneconomicsensitivityanalysis,withGDPgrowthonethirdlowerthaninourbasecase,wouldcut
0.2mb/d from expected 2011 oil demand and 1.2mb/d from the 2012 projection, effectively
curbingglobalannualdemandgrowthto0.7mb/dand0.3mb/d,respectively.
Global Overview
ThisreportincorporatesupdatedGDPassumptionsfromtheIMFsWorldEconomicOutlook,releasedin
September.GlobalrealGDPgrowthisnowseenat3.8%for2011andat3.9%for2012,versusprior3.9%
and 4.2% assumptions. Both the OECD and the nonOECD absorb the downgrade for 2012, with
prospectstrimmedinmostmajoreconomicareastheUS,Europe,Brazil,India,RussiaandtheMiddle
East. Our growth assumptions for China, however, remain largely unchanged. Moreover, we maintain
our2012oilpriceassumption,basedonthefuturesstrip,withnominalBrentat$108/bbl.Nevertheless,
these downward economic adjustments are partly offset by higherthanexpected August preliminary
demand readings. Altogether, we have revised down 2011 and 2012 oil demand by 50kb/d and
210kb/d, respectively. Demand growth for those years is now seen at 1.0mb/d (+1.1%) and
1.3mb/d(+1.4%).
12 O CTOBER 2011
D EMAND
Globaloildemandhasgrownatamoderate,butstable
pace, in recent months, suggesting neither resurgent
economic activity nor a downward consumption spiral.
With the incorporation of lowerthanexpected OECD
readingsforJuly,globaldemandgrowthforthatmonth
was only 0.6% yearonyear, down from 1.1%
previously. By contrast, August preliminary readings
boostedglobaldemandgrowthto1.4%.Tobesure,the
picture remains cautiousAugust data yielded
downward revisions to key markets such as the US,
China, India and Saudi Arabia and the stronger global
rate may partly reflect temporarily faster seasonal
heating oil tank filling in Europe. Nevertheless, oil
demandintheOECDhascomeinbroadlystrongerthan
anticipated, with Japans oilfired generation needs
continuingtoprovidesupportforthenearfuture.
Real GDP Growth

OMR dated 12 October 2011
% change
2011
2012
WORLD
3.8
3.9
OECD
1.7
1.9
OECD, North America
1.8
2.0
OECD, Europe
1.9
1.4
OECD, Pacific
0.8
2.9
Non-OECD
6.4
6.2
Africa
3.8
4.4
Latin America
4.7
4.0
China (excl. Hong Kong)
9.5
9.0
Other Asia
6.3
6.3
Non-OECD Europe
1.8
3.0
FSU
4.6
4.3
Middle East
4.7
4.0
Current vs. Previous

OMR dated 13 September 2011
WORLD
(0.0)
(0.3)
This picture could deteriorate, however, with a

OECD
(0.1)
(0.3)
downward lurch in economic prospects. The IMFs
OECD, North America
(0.1)
(0.2)
OECD, Europe
(0.1)
(0.3)
forecastassumesthatglobalgrowthisbeingdelayed
OECD, Pacific
0.2
(0.2)
rather than derailed with the effects from the
Non-OECD
(0.0)
(0.3)
Japanese earthquake and tsunami in March and high
Africa
(0.1)
(0.4)
commodity prices likely to moderate over time.
Latin America
0.0
(0.3)
Moreover, the Fund does not assume that recent
China (excl. Hong Kong)
0.0
(0.1)
Other Asia
0.0
(0.3)
financial market volatility will spill over into the real
Non-OECD Europe
(0.1)
(0.4)
economyinalastingway,preferringtoassumethatthe
FSU
(0.2)
(0.3)
actionsofpolicymakerswillhelpkeepturmoilincheck.
Middle East
(0.4)
(1.3)
Given that economic prospects remain fragile, Sources: IMF, IEA
particularlywiththeeurozonesongoingsovereigndebt
crisis,wecontinuetorunasensitivityanalysisshowing
anindicativeviewofoildemandshouldGDPgrowthcomeinaboutonethirdlowerthanourbasecase.
Undersuchconditions,globaloildemandwouldbereducedby0.2mb/dversusourbasecasefor2011
andby1.2mb/dfor2012,withannualgrowthat0.7mb/dand0.3mb/d,respectively.Aspreviously,we
assumethatthemoreincomeelasticdevelopingeconomieswillfeelthisimpactmostintensely.
Y-o-Y
% Chg
6
Oil Demand Sensitivity
World: Total Oil Product Demand
(millio n barrels per day)
4
2
(2)
2010
2011
2012 2011 vs. 2010

%
m b/d
2012 vs. 2011

%
m b/d
Base GDP
Global GDP (y-o-y chg)
OECD
5.0%
46.2
3.8%
45.8
3.9%
45.6 -0.7%
-0.32
-0.6%
-0.26
Non-OECD
World
42.1
88.2
43.4
89.2
44.9 3.1%
90.5 1.1%
1.31
0.99
3.5%
1.4%
1.52
1.25
(4)
Low er GDP
(6)
Jan
Global GDP (y-o-y chg)
5.0%
2.6%
OECD
46.2
45.8
45.3 -0.8%
-0.38
-1.1%
-0.52
Non-OECD
42.1
43.2
44.0 2.7%
1.12
1.9%
0.81
World
88.2
89.0
89.3 0.8%
0.74
0.3%
0.29
Apr
2008
Jul
2009
Oct
2010
Jan
2011
2.6%
12O CTOBER 2011
D EMAND
Global Oil Demand Growth 2010/2011/2012

thousand barrels per day
North America
Europe
464
FSU
293
197
54
-114
-112
1400
-182
Asia
Middle East
290
-132
904
237
824
144
-215
Latin America
305
168
214
61
Africa
170
Global Demand Growth

(mb/d)
-29
2010
2011
2012
2.70
0.99
1.25
3.2%
1.1%
1.4%
OECD
Accordingtopreliminarydata,OECDinlanddeliveries(oilproductssuppliedbyrefineries,pipelinesand
terminals) rose by 0.2% yearonyear in August, with growth in the OECD Pacific and OECD Europe
outweighing OECD North America declines. Diesel, European heating oil and other products, which
includedirectcrudeburn,drovethegains,outweighingfallsingasolineandheatingoiloutsideEurope.
m b/d
52
OECD: Demand by Driver, Y-o-Y Chg
OECD: Total Oil Product Demand
49
Heating
Other
(0.5)
46
(1.0)
(1.5)
43
Jan
Transport
Pow er Gen.
Total Dem .
m b/d
1.0
0.5
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
(2.0)
(2.5)
Jan
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Revisions to July preliminary data, at 380kb/d, stemmed largely from the US (380kb/d) and Japan
(110kb/d),whichoutweighedupwardadjustmentstoMexico(+120kb/d),Europe(+60kb/d)andKorea
(+40kb/d). In the US, downward revisions were concentrated in diesel, heating oil and residual fuel.
Japan saw other products adjusted loweryet, given volatility in deliveries and the strength of
preliminaryAugustdata,thereislittleevidencetosuggestaretrenchmentinoilfiredpowergeneration
there. Meanwhile, in Europe, upward revisions concentrated in heating oil suggest a faster pattern of
seasonalconsumertankfilling.Still,overallOECDdemanddeclinedby2.2%yearonyearinJuly,down
from1.1%inJune.
Economicprospectsfor2012havebeentrimmedacrossallregions,thoughmoremoderatelythaninlast
monthsissue,whichattemptedtopreemptsomeoftheIMFadjustments.Yet,ouroildemandoutlook
remains little changed, with 2011 revised up by 40kb/d and 2012 higher by 20kb/d. This positive
adjustment stems from sharply strongerthananticipated August preliminary readings (+600kb/d),
whichwhenfedthroughtheforecast,morethanoffsettheeffectsfromtheGDPchanges.Someofthis
Auguststrengthmaystemfromatemporaryaccelerationinheatingoildeliveriesaheadofwinter.Still
12 O CTOBER 2011
D EMAND
with strongerthanexpected readings from other product categories, it is possible that OECD demand
hasfoundsomesupport,fornow,aseconomiescontinuetogrow.Ouroutlookseesdemanddecliningby
0.7% (320kb/d) to 45.8mb/d in 2011 and falling by 0.6% (260kb/d) in 2012, with GDP growth
assumptionsof1.7%and1.9%,respectively.
OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - August 2011

(millio n barrels per day)
Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
RFO
mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa
OECD North Am erica* 10.60
US50
8.97
Canada
0.77
Mexico
0.79
OECD Europe
2.26
Germany
0.49
United Kingdom
0.32
France
0.21
Italy
0.24
Spain
0.14
OECD Pacific
1.70
Japan
1.10
Korea
0.21
Australia
0.33
OECD Total
14.56
-2.5
-3.1
-0.8
2.4
-2.5
3.1
-9.3
3.6
-2.0
-3.4
-1.3
-2.1
-0.3
0.6
-2.4
1.76
1.56
0.10
0.06
1.36
0.20
0.33
0.16
0.11
0.14
0.60
0.31
0.15
0.12
3.73
2.8
4.5
-13.7
-5.9
0.6
-2.0
1.4
0.6
-2.1
2.6
-6.4
-10.8
-6.2
3.7
0.4
4.29
3.69
0.22
0.33
4.37
0.71
0.45
0.69
0.46
0.46
1.09
0.39
0.30
0.36
9.75
7.1
7.3
-1.5
13.3
2.9
5.2
-0.6
4.3
5.0
-1.7
2.2
-3.6
3.5
7.8
4.6
0.72
0.22
0.33
0.14
1.63
0.44
0.13
0.29
0.10
0.13
0.45
0.34
0.10
0.00
2.80
-15.6
-43.0
5.6
13.3
1.9
-0.2
-5.3
18.2
3.8
-5.3
-6.8
-8.0
-2.7
0.0
-4.6
0.89
0.45
0.09
0.26
1.18
0.15
0.07
0.05
0.13
0.17
0.81
0.53
0.25
0.02
2.87
2.0
-5.9
1.4
20.3
-5.5
-2.2
3.6
-35.9
2.6
-6.4
8.3
22.3
-11.6
1.6
0.4
Other
Total Products
mb/d
% pa
mb/d % pa
5.94
4.59
0.73
0.56
3.73
0.61
0.30
0.45
0.46
0.30
3.29
1.92
1.20
0.16
12.97
-1.80
-0.2
-9.7
-3.4
0.3
-1.8
-1.1
2.6
-2.8
-4.5
7.2
10.6
3.6
1.1
1.0
24.20
19.49
2.25
2.14
14.54
2.60
1.60
1.84
1.50
1.35
7.93
4.59
2.21
0.99
46.67
-0.7
-0.9
-3.7
4.6
0.3
1.2
-2.4
3.8
0.5
-3.1
2.7
4.0
0.2
3.6
0.2
* Including US territo ries
North America
Preliminary data show oil product demand in North America (including US territories) falling by 0.7%
yearonyearinAugust,followinga2.7%declineinJuly.Gasoline(2.5%)ledthefall,butdieselandjet
fuel/kerosenepostedgainsof7.1%and2.8%,respectively,continuingatrendofrelativemiddledistillate
demanddurability.TheIMFsoutlookforNorthAmericahasreducedGDPgrowthprospectsto1.8%for
2011 and 2.0% for 2012, but this represents a revision of only 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, to our
assumptions.Ourforecastisreviseddownby30kb/din2011andby20kb/din2012withoildemand
nowseenat23.5mb/d(0.9%or220kb/d)and23.4mb/d(0.6%or130kb/d),respectively.
OECD North America: Demand by

Driver, Y-o-Y Chg
OECD North America:

Total Oil Product Demand
m b/d
27
Transport
Pow er Gen.
Total Dem .
m b/d
26
0.5
Heating
Other
25
-
24
(0.5)
23
(1.0)
22
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
(1.5)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Revisions to July data averaged 340kb/d and were driven by the US (380kb/d). Residual fuel oil
(160kb/d) and diesel (120kb/d) accounted for the largest downward adjustments. Still, the latter
postedsolidgrowthof3.3%yearonyear.WeeklytomonthlygasoilrevisionsintheUScontinuetobe
difficulttoanticipate,particularlygivensurgingdieselandheatingoilexports,which,combined,reached
arecordof890kb/dinJuly.
Adjusted preliminary weekly data for the United States (excluding territories) indicate that inland
deliveriesa proxy of oil product demanddeclined by 2.7% yearonyear in September, following a
12O CTOBER 2011
D EMAND
0.9%fallinAugust.Itappearsthat3Q2011gasolinedemandfellby3.5%,or320kb/d,yearonyearand
averaged only 8.9mb/d, making it the weakest third quarter since 2001. By contrast, diesel demand
grewbyanestimated5.7%,or190kb/d,andaveraged3.5mb/d,itshighestlevelsince4Q2007.These
readingscorrespondtoweaknessinvehiclemilestravelled,albeitonalaggedbasis,versusstillgrowing
road and rail freight. This divergent trend continues through our 2012 forecast, though with smaller
declinesingasolineandmoremoderatedieselgrowthonweakereconomicprospects.USGDPgrowthis
assumedat1.5%thisyearand1.8%in2012.Overall,USdemandisexpectedtodecline1.1%(210kb/d)
to19.0mb/din2011andfall0.5%(90kb/d)to18.9mb/din2012,withdownwardrevisionsof40kb/d
and20kb/d,respectively.
kb/d
9,400
kb/d
3,600
US50: Motor Gasoline Demand
9,200
3,500
9,000
3,400
8,800
3,300
8,600
3,200
8,400
3,100
8,200
3,000
8,000
2,900
1Q
2008
US50: Diesel Demand
2Q
2009
3Q
2010
4Q
2011
1Q
2008
2Q
2009
3Q
2010
4Q
2011
InMexico,oildemandroseby4.6%inAugust,ledbystrongdiesel(+13.3%)andresidualfueloilreadings
(+20.3%). Economic growth has slowed, though our latest assumptions put GDP growth at a still
respectable3.8%and3.6%for2011and2012,respectively.WithstrongerthananticipatedAugustdata,
the outlook is revised up by 20kb/d in 2011 and demand is expected to decline 0.8% (20kb/d). The
forecastfor2012isadjustedupby10kb/d,withdemandexpectedtofall0.4%(10kb/d).
Europe
Preliminary inland data indicate that oil product demand in Europe increased by 0.3% yearonyear in
August, led by gains in LPG (+4.3%), diesel (+2.9%) and heating oil (+1.9%). These more than offset
declinesingasoline(2.5%)andnaphtha(2.0%).ThepickupinEuropeandemandgrowthfollowedtwo
months where declines averaged 2.6% yearonyear. Some of the strength may simply be due to
accelerated seasonal filling of heating oil tanks at the consumer level, though it may also indicate a
somewhatmoresupportivedemandpicture,particularlyinFrance,GermanyandPoland,aseconomies
continuetoexpand.
m b/d
16.5
OECD Europe: Demand by Driver,

Y-o-Y Chg
OECD Europe:
15.5
m b/d
0.2
15.0
14.5
(0.2)
14.0
(0.4)
16.0
13.5
10
Heating
Other
(0.6)
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Transport
Pow er Gen.
Total Dem .
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
(0.8)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
12 O CTOBER 2011
D EMAND
Revisions to July preliminary data were positive, at +60kb/d, with higher readings for most products
outweighingdownwardadjustmentstogasoline(50kb/d)andjetfuel/kerosene(20kb/d).GDPgrowth
expectationsforEuropehavebeentrimmedto1.9%for2011and1.4%for2012,versus2.0%and1.7%
previously.Nevertheless,basedonhigherbaselinereadings,theforecasthasbeenrevisedupby50kb/d
and 20kb/d for 2011 and 2012, respectively. We now see European demand declining by 190kb/d
(1.3%)to14.4mb/din2011andfalling130kb/d(0.9%)to14.3mb/din2012.
kb/d
620
kb/d
800
France: Heating Oil Demand
Germany: Diesel Demand
750
520
700
420
650
320
600
550
220
500
120
450
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
InAugust,accordingtopreliminarydata,oilproductdeliveriesinFranceroseby3.8%yearonyearwith
allcategoriesexceptresidualfueloilpostinggains.Growthwasstrongestindiesel(+4.3%)andheating
oil(+18.2%),whereitappearsthatconsumertankfillinghasacceleratedaheadofwinter.Suchstrength
wasalsoevidentinGermany,wheredemandrose1.2%,reversingaveragedeclinesof8.1%duringthe
previous two months. Diesel increased by 5.2% and though heating oil deliveries fell by 0.2% yearon
year,demandwassharplyhigheronamonthlybasis.Polandwasanothersourceofsupport,withtotal
product demand up 5.9% yearonyear. Gains there were broad based, with diesel (+8.2%) and LPG
(+7.5%)growingstrongly.Bycontrast,thepicturehasslowedinTurkey.Followingyearonyeargrowth
of 6.2% in 1H2011, demand rose by only 1.4% in July. Still, data submissions indicate that diesel
deliveriessoaredtonewhighs,withgrowthofover20%yearonyear.
Pacific
PreliminarydataindicatethatoilproductdemandinthePacificgrewby2.7%yearonyearinAugust,led
byotherproducts,residualfueloilandnaphtha.Theeconomicoutlookhasbeenrevisedupfor2011,
withastrongerJapaneserecovery,butreviseddownfor2012.GDPgrowthexpectationsarenow0.8%in
2011 and 2.9% in 2012. Revisions to July preliminary data, at 100kb/d stemmed mostly from lower
otherproductsdemandinJapan.Still,oildemandcontinuestobebuoyedbyoilfiredpowergeneration
in Japan and, to a lesser degree, by petrochemical activity in Korea. These factors may diminish from
2H2012,thoughourforecastisrevisedupmarginallyby10kb/dforboth2011and2012.Wenowsee
regionaldemandincreasing80kb/d(+1.0%)to7.9mb/din2011,andholdingsteadyfor2012(+0.0%).
m b/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
OECD Pacific: Demand by Driver,

Y-o-Y Chg
OECD Pacific:
Transport
Pow er Gen.
Total Dem .
m b/d
0.2
0.1
Heating
Other
(0.1)
(0.2)
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
12O CTOBER 2011
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
(0.3)
(0.4)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
11
D EMAND
InJapan,oildemandroseby4.0%yearonyearinAugust,withotherproducts(+27.3%),whichinclude
crude direct burn, residual fuel oil (+22.3%) and naphtha (+4.4%) posting the strongest gains. Diesel
(3.6%) and gasoline (2.1%), by contrast, weakened versus yearago levels. Oil burning for power
generation continues to underpin demand growth. Despite volatility in reported deliveriesother
productsplusfueloildemandincreasedby60kb/dfromJunetoJulybutsurgedby280kb/dfromJuly
to August main utilities have reported a smooth and steadily rising oil consumption pattern. Recent
temperatures have not approached the high levels seen in latesummer 2010, but the nuclear power
outlookremainsunclear.Atthetimeofwriting,only10nuclearreactors,of54,remainedonlineinJapan
withplantrestartscontingentuponthestillevolvingpolicydebate.Ouroutlookhaschangedlittlefrom
lastmonth,withtotaloildemandgrowing1.5%(+70kb/d)to4.5mb/din2011andholdingsteadyfor
2012(+0.0%).Thisforecastpresupposesgradualrecoveryinnucleargeneration,andthereforereceding
crudeburnrequirements,overthecourseof2012.
kb/d
Japan : Oil Consumption (Crude +

Fuel Oil) for Power Generation*
kb/d
1,050
Korea: Naphtha Demand
800
*Main Utilities; Source: FEPC, IEA
950
600
400
850
200
750
650
Jan
Mar
2007
2010
May
Jul
2008
Sep
Nov
2009
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
2011
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Meanwhile,inKorea,demandrosebyonly0.2%inAugust.Mostproductsdeclined,exceptfornaphtha
(9.3%) and diesel (+3.5%), with the former benefitting from increased petrochemical activity. In
September,poweroutageshitresidentialareasacrossthecountrywithsurgingtemperaturesintheface
of seasonal plant maintenance. The government is seeking to avoid further blackouts this winter by
having utilities secure additional coal supplies. For now, the upside to oil demand looks limited (in
August, residual fuel oil declined 11.6% yearonyear), with economic concerns predominating. Our
outlookseesdemandfallingby20kb/d(1.0%)in2011andby10kb/d(0.4%)in2012.
Non-OECD
PreliminarydemanddataindicatethatnonOECDoildemandgrewby2.7%yearonyear(+1.2mb/d)in
August, down from 3.6% growth in July. Much of the slowdown stemmed from relatively weaker
demandgrowthinChinaandSaudiArabia.Total August demandisestimatedat43.5mb/d,whileJuly
levelshavebeenreviseddownby50kb/dto43.8mb/d(+1.5mb/dyearonyear).
m b/d Non-OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

46
44
42
40
38
36
34
Jan
12
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
m b/d
Non-OECD: Gasoil Demand
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Range 2006-2010
5-year avg
2010
2011
Jan
12 O CTOBER 2011
D EMAND
Non-OECD: Demand by Product

(tho usand barrels per day)
D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( k b/ d)
Jul-11
Aug-11
LPG & Ethane
5,021
4,912
4,955
209
208
4.4
4.4
Naphtha
2,635
2,631
2,616
-19
-11
-0.7
-0.4
Motor Gasoline
8,392
8,455
8,383
285
284
3.5
3.5
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
2,655
2,750
2,772
44
62
1.6
2.3
13,766
13,522
13,451
547
566
4.2
4.4
Residual Fuel Oil
5,485
5,467
5,451
79
43
1.5
0.8
Other Products
5,904
6,037
5,885
388
6.9
0.0
43,857
43,774
43,514
1,534
1,152
3.6
2.7
Gas/Diesel Oil
Total Products
Jul-11 Aug-11
A nnua l C hg ( %)
Jun-11
Jul-11 Aug-11
Gasoil,LPGandgasolineledproductgrowthinAugust.Withweakergrowthindirectcrudeoilburningin
SaudiArabia,otherproductsdemand growthwasflatyearonyearandsharplylowerthaninJuly.At
theregionallevel,growthintheFSUremainedrobustduetosurgingRussiandemandwhileAsiangrowth
moderatedandtheMiddleEastwitnessedararemonthlydeclineinyearonyeardemandgrowth.
Non-OECD: Demand by Region

D e m a nd
Jul-11
Aug-11
3,369
3,300
3,286
-84
-80
-2.5
-2.4
Asia
20,135
19,934
19,607
940
784
4.9
4.2
FSU
4,933
4,753
5,037
309
397
6.9
8.6
Latin America
6,497
6,543
6,619
68
164
1.1
2.5
Middle East
8,218
8,576
8,266
293
-126
3.5
-1.5
704
667
699
13
1.1
1.9
43,857
43,774
43,514
1,534
1,152
3.6
2.7
Africa
Non-OECD Europe
Total Products
Jul-11 Aug-11
A nnua l C hg ( %)
Jun-11
Jul-11 Aug-11
China
Chinasmonthlyapparentdemand(calculatedasrefineryoutputplusnetproductimports)roseby5.8%
yearonyearinAugustasslowerrefineryrunsoutweighedhigherproductimports.Apparentdemandin
Julywasrevisedupby50kb/d,puttinggrowthforthatmonthat6.6%.Augustdemandwasledbyyear
onyear increases in gasoil (+6.5%), residual fuel oil (+10.6%), jet fuel/kerosene (+9.5%) and gasoline
(+5.2%). The monthly demand pattern fits with our view of moderating growth rates over the next
18monthsastheeconomyslows.However,withGDPgrowthanddemandgrowthexpectedtoaverage
9.0%and5.0%(+480kb/d),respectively,in2012,theoutlookstilllooksrobust.
kb/d
1,700
China: Motor Gasoline Demand
Million
China: Passenger Car Sales
1.8
Source: Bloomberg,
CAAM
1.5
1,600
%
120
100
1.3
80
1.0
60
1,400
0.8
40
1,300
0.5
20
0.3
1,500
1,200
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
-20
Jan
Aug 08
May 09
Sales
Feb 10 Nov 10 Aug 11

% Change Y-o-Y (RHS)
Inadditiontomoderatingeconomicactivity,partofthedemandgrowthslowdownrelatestoeasingauto
salesinChina.Augustdatashowcarsalesup7.5%yearonyear,amidoverallvehiclesalesupjust3.3%.
Whiletheseratesarestrongerthanpreviousmonthreadingsandlongtermprospectsforvehiclegrowth
remain robust, they are still far lower than the 30+% growth in 2010. The expiry of government tax
incentives, reduced availability of vehicle registrations in cities and higher gasoline prices have all
12O CTOBER 2011
13
D EMAND
contributed to the slowing. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) cut prices for
gasoline and diesel by 34% on 9 October, but this was the first adjustment since April 2011. The
responsiveness of domestic prices may increase as the NDRC has announced plans to shorten its
adjustmentmechanismforretailproductpricesfrom22daysto10days,whichwouldmakethemmore
sensitive to international crude prices. Nevertheless, anecdotal evidence gleaned on a recent visit to
Beijing suggests that persistently high gasoline prices may indeed be curbing taxi driving, with drivers
complainingabouttenuousprofitabilityandcuttinghoursaccordingly.
China: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
668
684
702
16
18
2.5
2.7
Naphtha
1,129
1,195
1,251
66
56
5.9
4.7
Motor Gasoline
1,546
1,646
1,726
101
80
6.5
4.8
368
395
415
26
20
7.1
5.1
3,142
3,345
3,502
203
156
6.5
4.7
LPG & Ethane
Jet Fuel & Kerosene

Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
2012
531
545
549
14
2.5
0.8
Other Products
1,685
1,780
1,926
96
146
5.7
8.2
Total Products
9,069
9,590
10,072
522
481
5.8
5.0
Other Non-OECD
InIndia,oildemandroseby2.7%inAugust,slightlyslowerthanthe2.9%increaseinJuly.Growthwas
stable in gasoil (+6.3%) and gasoline (+4.3%) while LPG growth rose to +9.5%. Residual fuel oil, jet
fuel/keroseneandnaphthaallregistereddeclines.Indianeconomicprospectsareseensomewhathigher
for2011andlowerfor2012,withgrowthnowexpectedat7.8%and7.5%,respectively.Passengercar
salesgrowthcontinuedtoslowfromitsrapidexpansioninthefirsthalfoftheyear.Augustautosalesfell
forthesecondmonthinarow,decreasing10%yearonyear.Risinggasolineprices,whichareformally
deregulated, may be a contributing factor to the slowdown. Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) raised
pricesby$0.11/litreinMayandinstitutedafurther$0.07/litrepriceriseinSeptember.
India: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
LPG & Ethane
455
493
523
38
30
8.3
6.0
Naphtha
201
200
191
-1
-9
-0.6
-4.6
Motor Gasoline
338
359
379
21
20
6.2
5.6
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
299
300
303
0.4
1.0
1,290
1,356
1,425
66
68
5.1
5.0
Residual Fuel Oil
194
177
185
-17
-8.9
4.5
Other Products
559
559
564
0.0
0.8
3,337
3,444
3,569
108
124
3.2
3.6
Gas/Diesel Oil
Total Products
kb/d
400
kb/d
900
India: Motor Gasoline Demand
2012
Russia: Gasoil Demand
810
350
720
300
630
250
540
200
Jan
14
S o urc e : P e t ro m a rk e t R G , IE A
450
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
12 O CTOBER 2011
D EMAND
DemandinRussiahasshownlittlesignofslowing,growingby10.4%yearonyearinAugust.Gasoiland
residualfueloildemandcontinuedtosoar,growingby20.9%and30.5%yearonyear,respectively,even
aswehavecuteconomic growthprospectsonaverageby0.4%for2011and2012,to4.3%and4.1%,
respectively. This years demand growth has exceeded expectations based on income and may stem
fromadegreeofenduserstockbuilding.Bycontrast,the2012forecastismoreinlinewithlongerterm
incomedemandrelationships.
Russia: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
LPG & Ethane
493
517
534
24
17
4.9
2012
3.2
Naphtha
289
287
292
-2
-0.8
1.9
Motor Gasoline
774
778
780
0.6
0.2
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
255
266
269
11
4.1
1.3
Gas/Diesel Oil
634
694
691
61
-3
9.6
-0.5
Residual Fuel Oil
291
300
282
-18
2.9
-6.0
Other Products
Total Products
542
599
614
57
15
10.5
2.5
3,279
3,442
3,462
163
20
5.0
0.6
Source: Petromarket RG, IEA
InSaudiArabia,demandfellby3.5%inAugust.Sharplylowerotherproducts(15.6%),whichincludes
crudedirectburnforpowergeneration,andresidualfueloil(5.8%)accountedforthedecline,though
gasoline demand growth (+1.2%) also moderated. The decline may partly stem from reduced activity
duringRamadan,whichwascentredonAugustthisyearratherthanamoreusualstraddlingofdifferent
months.Nevertheless,otherproductsdemandandcrudeburnstillroseonamonthlybasisfromJuly,
thoughwithamoresmoothedpatterncomparedwithprevioussummerspikes.Economicassumptions
forSaudiArabiaremainsteady,butwehaverevisedourdemandoutlooktheredownby50kb/dforboth
2011and2012.TheoutlookhasalsobeencutforSyriabyanaverage40kb/dthisyearandnext,based
ontheIMFsassessmentofnegativeGDPgrowthfor2011.
Saudi Arabia: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
568
606
639
38
33
6.7
5.4
51
51
52
-0.5
2.0
422
439
452
17
13
4.0
3.0
65
66
68
2.4
2.6
Gas/Diesel Oil
627
643
667
16
24
2.6
3.7
Residual Fuel Oil
262
269
269
2.5
0.2
Other Products
662
662
712
50
0.0
7.5
2,657
2,736
2,859
79
123
3.0
4.5
LPG & Ethane

Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
Total Products
kb/d
1,200
kb/d
900
Saudi Arabia:
Other Products Demand
1,000
800
800
700
2012
Brazil: Motor Gasoline Demand
600
600
400
500
200
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
12O CTOBER 2011
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
15
D EMAND
InBrazilproductdemandfellby0.8%yearonyearinJuly,weigheddownbyresidualfueloil(15.6%),
gasoline (3.3%) and LPG (0.9%). By contrast, middle distillates posted strong growth, with jet
fuel/keroseneandgasoilrisingby10.1%and2.1%,respectively.Economicprospectshavebeentrimmed,
with real GDP growth seen at 3.8% for 2011 and 3.6% for 2012. Nevertheless, demand is expected to
growatastillsolidpace,+1.8%(+50kb/d)and+2.4%(+70kb/d),forthetwoyears.
From1October,Brazilcutthemandatedanhydrousethanolcontentingasolineby5%toalevelof20%.
Ontheonehand,withoverallethanol(whosepricesarehighandsetbythemarket)tightnesslikelyto
ease versus gasoline (whose prices are relatively fixed), the move may help revive total gasoline
consumption,growthratesforwhichhavefallensteadily.Thatsaid,efficiencygainswillderivefromthe
higherenergycontentofagasolinepoolcontaininglessethanol.Petroleumbasedgasolinerequirements
mayrisebyonly30kb/dtosubstituteforthereducedanhydrousethanol,butthiswillputpressureon
analreadystrainedrefiningsystemandnecessitateincreasedimports.
Brazil: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
LPG & Ethane
219
221
224
1.2
2012
0.9
Naphtha
166
166
167
0.4
0.2
Motor Gasoline
792
813
839
21
26
2.6
3.2
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
110
121
132
11
10
10.3
8.4
Gas/Diesel Oil
886
916
951
30
34
3.4
3.7
Residual Fuel Oil
187
163
154
-23
-9
-12.4
-5.8
Other Products
Total Products
374
380
384
1.6
1.2
2,733
2,782
2,850
49
68
1.8
2.4
Argentinas oil demand rose by 4.1% yearonyear in August, on the back of still robust economic
growth.LPGandgasolineledtheincreases,growingbyasizeable29.6%and15.1%,respectively.Total
productdemandisexpectedtoaverage730kb/din2011(+3.5%yearonyearor+20kb/d)and750kb/d
in 2012 (+3.2% or 20kb/d), with GDP growth at 8.0% and 4.6%, respectively. While the 2011 demand
forecast is guided by eight months of reported data, the 2012 outlook is based upon longerterm
incomedemandrelationships.
16
12 O CTOBER 2011
S UPPLY
SUPPLY
Summary
Globaloilsupplyfellby0.3mb/dto88.7mb/dinSeptemberfromAugust,drivenlowerbyreduced
nonOPECoutput.Comparedtoayearago,globaloilproductionincreasedby1.0mb/d,40%ofwhich
stemmedfromhigherOPECNGLsproductionandanother60%fromincreasedOPECcrudeoutput.
NonOPEC supply fell by 0.3 mb/d to 52.6 mb/d in September, largely due to weather and/or
maintenance related shutins in North America, the North Sea, and Latin America, as well as
unplanned outages in the Middle East. NonOPEC supply is expected to increase during the fourth
quarterby0.7mb/dcomparedtothethirdquarteraftermaintenanceiscompletedintheNorthSea.
AnnualnonOPECsupplygrowthnowaverages0.2mb/dfor2011and0.9mb/dfor2012.
OPECcrudeoilsupplywasdownbyaslight20kb/dto30.15mb/dinSeptember,withloweroutput
by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria partly offset by the resumption of Libyan production. Despite ongoing
armed conflict in Gaddafi strongholds, crude production was rapidly restored to 350kb/d by early
OctoberfollowingtheliberationofTripoliinearlySeptember.Successinrestoringsuppliestodatehas
ledustoreviseupwardouroutlookforthecountryscapacity,withyearendoutputnowpeggedcloser
to600kb/d,althoughformidablechallengesremain.
Calls by some in OPEC for fellow members to sharply scale back production now that Libyan
productionhasrestartedmaybepremature.TheaveragecallonOPECcrudeandstockchangefor
4Q11 has been adjusted 0.3 mb/d higher, to 30.8 mb/d, in response to lower forecast nonOPEC
supplies.Thecallfor2012islargelyunchangedat30.5mb/d,marginallylowerthanthe30.6mb/d
averagefor2011.EffectiveOPECsparecapacityisestimatedat3.31mb/d.
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
m b/d
Year-on-Year Change
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11
OP EC Crude
OP EC NGLs
Non-OP EC
Total Supply
m b/d
62
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply

m b/d
31.0
60
30.5
58
30.0
56
29.5
54
29.0
52
28.5
50
Jan 11
28.0
Jul 11
Jan 12
Non-OP EC
OP EC Crude - RS
Jul 12
OP EC NGLs
AllworldoilsupplyfiguresforSeptemberdiscussedinthisreportareIEAestimates.EstimatesforOPEC
countries,Alaska,andRussiaaresupportedbypreliminarySeptembersupplydata.
Note: Random events present downside risk to the nonOPEC production forecast contained in this report.
Theseeventscanincludeaccidents,unplannedorunannouncedmaintenance,technicalproblems,labourstrikes,
politicalunrest,guerrillaactivity,warsandweatherrelatedsupplylosses.Specificallowancehasbeenmadein
the forecast for scheduled maintenance in all regions and for typical seasonal supply outages (including
hurricanerelatedstoppages)inNorthAmerica.Inaddition,fromJuly2007,anationallyallocated(butnotfield
specific)reliabilityadjustmenthasalsobeenappliedforthenonOPECforecasttoreflectahistoricaltendency
for unexpected events to reduce actual supply compared with the initial forecast. This totals 200kb/d for
nonOPECasawhole,withdownwardadjustmentsfocusedintheOECD.
12O CTOBER 2011
17
S UPPLY
OPEC Crude Oil Supply

OPECcrudeoilsupplywasdownbyamarginal20kb/dto30.15mb/dinSeptember,withloweroutput
by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria partially offset by the resumption of Libyan production. Despite ongoing
armedconflictinColonelGaddafisstrongholds,thecountrysoilindustryhasbeenabletoquicklyramp
up production, to a level around 350kb/d in earlyOctober, following the fall of Tripoli in early
September(seeLibyaFlexesitProductionMuscle).
Libyasreturntotheglobalmarketmayhavealreadysetinmotionarebalancingofproductionflowsfor
several OPEC member countries which stepped in to fill the breach after hostilities broke out last
February, forcing the shutin of some 1.6 mb/d of production. Fellow OPEC members, led by Saudi
Arabia,havecollectivelyincreasedsuppliesbymorethan1.1mb/dfromthe2011lowseeninAprilina
efforttoreplacelostLibyancrude.BothKuwaitandtheUAEraisedoutputinSeptembertothehighest
levels in around three years to help compensate for Libyas shutdown. However, Saudi Arabia, which
increasedoutputbyaround1mb/dinrecentmonths,appearsnowtobescalingbacksupplies.
m b/d
33
OPEC Crude Oil Production
m b/d
32
32
Quarterly Call on OPEC Crude + Stock

Change
31
31
30
30
29
28
29
27
28
Jan
Mar
2008
May
2009
Jul
Sep
2 0 10
Nov
Jan
2 0 11
Entire series based o n OP EC Co mpo sitio n as o f January 2009

o nwards (including A ngo la & Ecuado r & excluding Indo nesia)
26
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2 0 10
2 0 11
2 0 12
Entire series based o n OP EC Co mpo sitio n as o f January 2009
o nwards (including A ngo la & Ecuado r & excluding Indo nesia)
Calls by other OPEC members, including Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, for Saudi Arabia to reinin supplies
now that Libyan output has restarted may be premature. The groups output is still running 300kb/d
belowpreLibyancrisislevelsof30.5mb/dfromJanuary2011.Moreover,despiteincreasedoutputby
several OPEC members and the IEAs Libyan Collection Action, demand has continued to run ahead of
supplybyanaverage0.6mb/dsofarin2011.CrudeoilstocksinOECDEuropeandPacificareholding
wellbelowthefiveyearaverage.
Indeed, the call on OPEC crude and stock change for 4Q11 has been adjusted higher in response to
lowerforecastnonOPECsupplies.Afteradownwardadjusted2011peakof31.2mb/din3Q,the4Q11
callhasbeenraisedby300kb/d,to30.8mb/d,duetoadownwardrevisioninexpectedsuppliesfrom
theNorthSea,Brazil,Yemenand Syria.The2011callislargelyunchanged at30.6mb/d,butremains
unchangedfor2012at30.5mb/d.
AttacksonkeycrudepipelinesinSeptemberandearlyOctober,whichtemporarilyforcedtheshutinof
600700kb/dinIraqandNigeria,arealsoastarkreminderofhowvulnerableoilproductionfacilitiesare
incountriesfacingongoingcivilunrest,suchasthatconfrontednowbyLibya.
OPECwillnextmeetinViennaon14Decembertoreviewthemarketoutlookfor2012.Whenthegroup
lastmetinJune,thegatheringfailedtoagreeaSaudiplantoraiseoutputtoreplacelostLibyancrude.
OPECs September supply was 2.57mb/d above the now largely irrelevant official 24.845 mb/d target,
whichhasbeeninplacesinceJanuary2009.RecentstatementsbyseveralOPECministerssuggestthat
discussionsattheDecembermeetingmayrevolvearoundcallsforsomeGulfproducerstocurtailoutput
to make room for Libyan supplies. Reaching accord on such a proposition will largely depend on
18
12 O CTOBER 2011
S UPPLY
benchmark crude prices, the state of Libyan reconstruction, the macro economic situation, current
outlookforoildemandandprevailingSaudioutputlevels.
SaudiArabiacurtailedoutputbyanestimated200kb/dto kb/d Saudi Implied Crude Oil Direct Burn

1,000
9.6 mb/d in September, according to export data and 900
industryreports.Thecutbackislargelyinlinewithlower 800
domestic needs following the end of the peak summer 700
demand period. Latest data from JODI indicate direct 600
500
crude burn in August came in seasonally lower than 400
expected. The more modest increase in crude burn was 300
most likely due to Ramadan celebrations, which led to 200
reducedindustrialandconsumerelectricityuseinAugust. 100
0
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jul-10
Apr-11
Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi suggested on 8October that
Septemberproductionwasdowntoaslowas9.39mb/d.Althoughitisnotclearwhetherthisreferredto
production or actual supply to the market, or indeed whether this was a monthly lowpoint, it
nonethelesssupportsviewsthatoutputisnowonadownwardtrend.Moreover,SaudiArabiasentthe
clearestsignalyetthatitintendstoprotectrevenuesdespitedecliningoutputwithitsdecisiontoraise
pricestorecordlevelsforitsArabLightforAsianbuyersforNovember.Thesteeppricehiketookmany
market players by surprise, especially following the unplanned shutdown of Shells massive 500kb/d
Singapore refinery and ensuing cutback in crude needs. Aramcos price rise is likely pegged to recent
strongerrefiningmarginsandonexpectationsofrobustdemandforwinterfuels.
Meanwhile,SaudiArabiaformallyannounceditisunlikelynowtoimplementplanstoraiseitsoiloutput
capacityto15mb/d,arguingincreasedproductionandexpansionprojectselsewhere,suchasinIraqand
Brazil,willbeadequate.ThereisnoreasonforSaudiAramcotopursue15mb/d,SaudiAramcochief
executiveKhalidAlFalihwasreportedassaying8October.EarlyonintheLibyancrisis,andlikelyaimed
atquellingmarketfearsofacriticalproductionshortage,SaudiArabiareaffirmedthatitcouldincrease
capacityto15mb/d.
Kuwait raised output to its highest level in three years at 2.55 mb/d, up 20kb/d from August levels.
Production,however,isstillsome250kb/dbelowlevelsreportedbyofficials.KuwaitreportedtoJODIan
unusuallysharpincreaseincrudeproductionforAugustalthoughtankerdatashownosignificantchange
over the past few months through September. Some analysts have questioned such a rise, although
recent JODI demand data also suggested higher domestic use. Others have cited claims to higher
productionasbeingdesignedtoappeasedomesticpoliticalcriticismofthestateoilcompany.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, the UAE increased output by 20kb/d to 2.55 mb/d, the highest level since
September2008,whileIraniansuppliesinchedup30kb/dto3.54mb/d.Latestshippingdatashowthe
increasedIranianproductionwaslikelymovedtofloatingstorage.GibsonShipbrokersreportedIranian
floatingstoragerosebyaround2mbto21.4mbbyendSeptember.
IraqioutputinSeptemberreacheditshighestlevelinalmost10years.However,productionedgedlower
in early October following attacks on pipelines in the south of the country. Production of around
650kb/d at the southern part of the workhorse Rumaila oilfield was initially shutin on 7 October
followingtwobombattacks.TotalproductionfromtheBPChinaNationalPetroleumCorp.jointventure
hadbeenrunningataround1.24mb/d.Thefieldssouthernoutputwasgraduallyrestoredthree days
later.Anestimated540kb/dproducedfromthenorthernpartoftheRumailafieldwasnotaffectedby
thedisruption.Anearlierexplosionatadegassingstationduringmaintenanceworkalsoforcedoperator
BPtotemporarilyshutinoutputatRumailaon21September.
12O CTOBER 2011
19
S UPPLY
Iraqi production in September rose by 60kb/d to 2.74 mb/d, the highest level since November2001
thankstoincreasedoutputfromthenewjointventureprojects. Oilexportsalsoreachednewhighsin
September, up by 50kb/d to 2.24 mb/d. Shipments from the Basrah and Khor alAmaya terminals
averaged1.8mb/d,upbyabout70kb/dfromAugust.ExportsofKirkukcrudeinthenorthweredownby
around20kb/dto430kb/d.Pipelineleaksrelatedtoageinginfrastructureledtoahaltincrudeexports
throughtheKirkukCeyhannetworkon28Septemberforseveraldays.ReducedoutputfromtheKurdish
regionalsocontributedtothemonthlydecline.NorwegianoperatorDNOsaiditreducedoutputatthe
TawkefieldinearlySeptemberwhileitconductedtechnicaltestsrelatedtoreservoirmanagement.Total
crude exports from the northern Kurdish region, which flow through the pipeline to the Turkish
Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, dropped to 5060kb/d in early September from around 160kb/d in
August,beforerisingto100kb/dbytheendofthemonth.
OPEC Crude Production

Spare Capacity
vs Sep 2011
Supply
End-2011
Sustainable
Production
Capacity
Aug 2011
Supply
Algeria
1.28
1.28
1.29
1.34
0.05
1.34
Angola
1.67
1.69
1.74
1.98
0.23
1.98
Ecuador
0.49
0.49
0.50
0.53
0.03
0.53
Iran
3.53
3.51
3.54
3.68
0.14
3.68
Kuwait
2.51
2.53
2.55
2.56
0.01
2.56
Libya
0.06
0.00
0.08
0.35
0.28
0.60
Nigeria
2.32
2.28
2.18
2.55
0.37
2.55
Qatar
0.82
0.82
0.82
1.04
0.22
1.04
Saudi Arabia2
9.70
9.80
9.60
12.04
2.44
12.04
UAE
2.50
2.53
2.55
2.74
0.19
2.74
Venezuela4
2.43
2.56
2.56
2.64
0.08
2.59
27.31
27.49
27.41
31.44
4.03
31.64
OPEC-11
Iraq
Total OPEC
Sep 2011
Supply
Sustainable
Production
Jul 2011
Supply
2.65
2.68
2.74
2.85
0.11
3.03
29.95
30.17
30.15
34.29
4.14
34.67
(excluding Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela

1
2
3
4
Capacity
3.31)
Capacity levels can be reached within 30 days and sustained for 90 days.
Includes half of Neutral Zone production.
Nigeria's current capacity estimate excludes some 200 kb/d of shut-in capacity.
Includes upgraded Orinoco extra-heavy oil assumed at 460 kb/d in September.
NigeriansuppliesinSeptemberweredown100kb/d,to2.18mb/d,followingaseriesofpipelineoutages
on the Bonny and Forcados network due to sabotage and oil theft. Reports suggest there have been
almostadozenvandalismincidentsinAugustandSeptemberonpipelinesineasternoperationsofthe
Niger Delta. In early October, Shell declared force majeure on its Forcados export programme for
October, November and December 2011 following the production shutdown stemming from sabotage
ontheTransForcadosPipeline.Forcadosoutputwasalreadycutbyasmuchas50%inthethirdweekof
Septemberduetopipelineleaks.OperatorShellhasnot mb/d
Nigerian Crude Production
confirmed the exact amount of crude affected but
2.4
loading schedules indicate exports were to average
2.2
220kb/d prior to the attacks. At the same time, Shell
lifted its force majeure on Nigerian Bonny Light crude
2.0
exports, which had been in effect since 23 August
1.8
followingseveralpipelineattacks.
1.6
The attacks risk reversing a fairly steady increase in
production since the governments amnesty agreement
1.4
withmilitantgroupswasimplementedtwoyearsago.
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
20
12 O CTOBER 2011
S UPPLY
Indeed,Julyproductionlevelsreachedafiveyearhighof2.32mb/d.However,thelatestescalationinoil
thefts,orbunkeringasitisknowninNigeria,mayultimatelyresultinmorepipelineshutdownsgoing
forward. After coming in for harsh criticism for its environmental record from a United Nations(UN)
report on oil spills released in August, Shell, the countrys biggest foreign producer, is likely to take a
muchmoreaggressiveapproachindealingwithvandalismandbunkering.TheUNreportsaiddecadesof
oil pollution in the Ogoniland area of the Niger Delta, located in Rivers state, will require the world's
largest ever cleanup. Shell and other IOCs contend that a large majority of oil spills are caused by
sabotageoroiltheft.Soonafterthereportsrelease,Shellshutin25kb/dfromitsImoRiverfieldinthe
NigerDeltaon28August,sayingithasshutinproductionfromImoRiverFieldduetoarecentupsurge
ofillegalbunkeringandrefiningactivitieswhichhaveimpactedtheenvironment.
Angolan crude oil production in September rose to the highest level in sixteen months, up 55kb/d to
1.75mb/d, in part due to the end of field maintenance work and startup of production at the Total
operated deepwater Pazflor field. Output is expected to rise in coming months as Pazflor ramps up
towardsits220kb/dcapacity.
Libya Flexes its Production Muscle

Libyasnationaloilcompanyandjointventurepartnershavemovedquicklytorestoreoutputsincethefall
of Tripoli in early September. After being idled for more than six months, production from four fields
brought online so far reached an estimated 350kb/d in early October. In September, Libyan output
averaged75kb/d. Despite the rampup in production,crude exports so far have been minimal asofficials
diverttheearlybarrelstoreplenishingtanksatrefineriesgiventhecriticalneedtomeetdomesticdemand.
Todate,fourcargoescarryingatotal2.5mbhavebeensoldsinceproductionstartedupinearlySeptember.
Despite still formidable challenges, success in restoring supplies to date has led us to revise upward our
outlookforthecountrysproductioncapacitythroughtheendoftheyear.Productionnowlooksontrackto
reach an average 400kb/d in 4Q 2011, with yearend output closer to 600kb/d. That compares with our
earlierforecastof350400kb/dbyend2011.Indeed,theremaybemoreupsiderevisionsoncecompanies
are able to conduct a more thorough assessment on the ground and determine if damage is less than
initially feared. So far, however, there are still many conflicting reports about the state of the fields and
infrastructurewhichneedtobeclarified.Onemanageratthe300kb/dElephantfieldsaidproductionstart
upwouldbedelayedduetoseveredamagewhileoperatorENIreportednodamage.
Sofar,productionismadeupofrelativelyeasybarrelsfromfieldsunaffectedbythefightingbutthereafter
restoring production may be more difficult as companies implement repairs to wardamaged fields,
terminals and other key infrastructure. The National Oil Corporation (NOC) estimated that full prewar
outputisachievableatend2012.
The bulk ofcurrent production is comingfrom the eastern region ofthe country, and includesSarir at an
estimated180200kb/d,Meslaat60kb/dandBuAttifelat70kb/d.TheoffshoreAlJurffieldisalsoramping
uptoits40kb/dtarget.Plannedstartupofmorefieldsfromthewesternregionincomingweeks,including
the200kb/dShararafield,shoulddoublecurrentoutput,NOCofficialssaid.
InternalpowerstruggleswithinthenascentNationalTransitionalCouncil(NTC)aswellasatthenationaloil
company,oilministryandevenatthefieldlevelmayyetthreatenoutputtargets.WorkersattheWahaoil
complex,whichproduced400kb/dbeforetheoutbreakofunrest,arethreateningtostrikeunlessmanagers
who are reportedly loyal to Colonel Gaddafi are fired and put on trial. Workers unearthed documents
showing the management used the Waha oil facility as a base for Gaddafis military operations. NATO
targetedthecomplexbecauseitwasusedtosupportproGaddafimilitiaand,asaresult,thereisextensive
damagetofields,includingWahaandGialo,whichcouldtakefourtosixmonthstorepair.
Whilethebulkoftheproductionintheeasternregionofthecountrywassparedsomeoftheworstdamage,
outputfromtheSarirandMeslafields,whichwerethefirsttocomeonlineandcombinedwereproducing
280kb/dbyearlyOctober,islikelytobecappedatcurrentlevelsuntilequipmentisreplacedandrepairs
made.OperatorAGOCOsaiditcouldtakeayeartofixitspowerturbinesnearMesla.Productionelsewhere
in the Sirte basin could also be hemmed in since exports flow through to the heavily damaged Es Sider
terminal,whichofficialsalsosaycouldtakeayeartorepair.
12O CTOBER 2011
21
S UPPLY
Non-OPEC Overview
NonOPECoilsupplyisestimatedtohavefallenby0.3mb/dto52.6mb/dinSeptember,largelydueto
weatherandmaintenancerelatedshutinsinNorthAmerica,maintenanceintheNorthSea,unplanned
outagesintheMiddleEast,andoutagesandmaintenanceinLatinAmerica.Weexpectfeweroutagesby
thefourthquarter,with productionincreasingby700kb/d comparedto3Q11.However,compared to
last year, nonOPEC supply in 4Q11 is estimated to grow by only 0.3 mb/d, halving our longstanding
expectations from last month. Annual growth in 4Q11 stems mainly from gains in Latin America and
RussiathataretemperedbydeclinesinMalaysia,ChinaandIndonesia.
Continuedmaturefielddecline,slowerthanexpectedrampupofnewproduction,andunplannedoutages
have caused us to reduce expectations for growth in 4Q11 (300kb/d) and the entire year (30kb/d).
Noteworthydownwardrevisionsin4Q11arefocusedintheNorthSea(95kb/d),Brazil(90kb/d),USGulf
ofMexico(80kb/d),andtheMiddleEast(40kb/d),whichareoffsetbyanupwardsrevisiontoUSNGLs.
In2012,therevisionsfocusonthesameareasandleadtoanoverallreductioninnonOPECsupplygrowth
fornextyearby180kb/dtoaround0.9mb/d.
mb/d
mb/d
1.4
Total Non-OPEC Oil Supply
Total Non-OPEC Supply, y-o-y chg
1.2
54.7
1.0
0.8
52.7
0.6
0.4
50.7
0.2
0.0
48.7
Jan Mar May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
-0.2
-0.4
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
AlthoughnonOPECsupplyshouldgrowby0.9kb/dto53.6mb/din2012,itisworthhighlightingthemajor
downsideriskstoouroutlook.InadditiontoplannedmaintenanceintheNorthSea,thispastyearhashad
itsshareofunplannedoutages,reaching650kb/din3Q11,andmanyanalystsquestionwhether2012will
be any different. We still maintain that the rebound from unprecedented levels of unscheduled outages
andgrowingproductioninLatinAmerica,theCaspian,Russia,Australia,andtheUSwillbolsternonOPEC
supplygrowthin2012.Whilewecannotforecastunscheduledoutagesin2012,wecustomarilyassumea
0.2mb/dannualdownwardadjustmentinouroutlook,largelyforpotentialequipmentfailuresatmature
assetsinthe OECD. Looking forward, the forecast ismostsusceptible tofurtherrevisions fromweather
andotherunplannedoutages,persistentprojectslippage,andmaturefielddeclines.However,setagainst
that,theabilityofhighpricestostimulateactivityremains,evenifpriceshaverecededinrecentweeks.
kb/d
Non-OPEC Supply 2011

Selected Shut-ins & Adjustments
-40
-200
-260
-160
Selected Third Quarter 2011 Outages

-40
-250
-460
-400
-610
-650
-600
-800
1Q
2Q
Planned Maintenance (N. Sea)
22
3Q
4Q
Unplanned Outages
Colombia Protests
China Bohai Bay Spill
Yemen outages
Malaysia Kikeh outages
Canada Horizon fire
Argentina protests/damage
Norway other outages
UK unplanned outages
US hurricane adjustment
North Sea maintenance
-10
-80
-50
-60
-110
-30
-130
-110
-70
-250
12 O CTOBER 2011
S UPPLY
OECD
North America
US August, Alaska actual, other states estimated: US oil supply dipped by 57 kb/d to an estimated
8.0mb/dinAugustasproductiondeclinedintheGulfofMexicoandintheLower48.Lowerproduction
was offset by a return to premaintenance levels at Alaskas Prudhoe Bay field. The impact of tropical
storms accounted for some of the decline in August, though conventional PADD 2 production should
remainlacklustre.WeexpectfurtherdeclinesinUSproductioninSeptemberand4Q2011onweather
relatedshutins,aswellasmaturefielddecline.Forexample,thetropicalstormsinSeptembercauseda
liquid build up in the Destin gas pipeline and led to BP curtailing production for around two weeks at
some of its facilities including the Marlin and Pompano fields and the Na Kika complex. We have also
reduced our outlook by 80kb/d for production from the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 from an analysis of
recentfieldlevelproductionthatshowsreducedperformancefromanumberofindividualfields.
InNorthDakota,productionforMay,June,and Julyaveraged390kb/d,80kb/dhigherthanthesame
periodin2010.Statedataindicatedthatthenumberofproducingwellsrosetomorethan5500,which
wasmitigatedbyotherfloodingrelatedshutinsandraildisruptionsinJuneandJuly.Severestormsat
thestartoftheyearalsocausedareductioninoutput.
AnupwardsrevisiontoouroutlookforUSNGLproductionoffsetsdecliningUScrudeproductioninthese
areas.RecentNGLproductiondatahaveexceededourexpectations,andthuswehaverevisedupwards
ourassessmentofNGLoutputfor2H11andfor2012by100and140kb/drespectively.Therehasbeena
marked acceleration of shale and tight gas resource development in the US in the last two years,
especiallythosewithhighliquidscontent,andwebelievethesedevelopmentswillcontinuetosupport
rising NGL production in upcoming months. This revision is predicated on announcements of new
fractionation capacity in areas with large amounts of unconventional gas production and on an
assumptionthatnaturalgasprocessingmarginswillcontinuetosupportNGLproduction(versusnatural
gassales).
mb/d
5.8
Total US Oil Supply
mb/d
Total Canada Oil Supply
3.9
5.3
4.8
3.4
4.3
2.9
3.8
Jan
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
Jan
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
CanadaJulyactual:RampupcontinuedattheSuncoroilsandsprojectinJuly,raisingCanadiantotaloil
production to 3.4 mb/d in July. Further gains in August and September are likely to follow production
restartatthe75kb/dCNRLHorizonmine/upgraderinmidAugust.Theprojectshouldregain110kb/dby
October.JulyestimatesforconventionalcrudeproductioninAlbertaalsoreachedarecordlowlevelof
290kb/d, but are expected to rebound to presummer levels of 320kb/d by September. Recent data
showthattheHiberniafieldsproductionhasreboundedby50kb/dfromseasonalmaintenanceinthe
summer, although news of reduced loadings for later this year could be due to other maintenance or
performanceissuesatthefield.InSeptember,SyncrudeCanadaconductedunplannedmaintenanceon
thevacuumdistillationunitofits350kb/dupgrader,andrecentstatisticsshowthatoutputwas90kb/d
lowerthanAugustlevels.
12O CTOBER 2011
23
S UPPLY
MexicoAugustactual:MexicancrudeoilproductioninAugustincreasedby20kb/dcomparedtoprior
month levels, but fell by around 30kb/d compared to the previous quarter. Monthly production
increasedduetorecordhighoutputfromtheKMZfieldofalmost850kb/d,butlikelyfellbacktoaround
800kb/dafterTropicalStormNatereducedoutputinSeptember.Weexpectproductionfromthefield
to decline only slightly in our outlook. We have adjusted NGL output in Mexico slightly to take into
accountseasonalfluctuationsinoutputoverthelastfiveyears.
North Sea
NorwayJulyactual,Augustprovisional:Totalliquidsproductionincreasedby150kb/dinJulyasfields
returnedfromplannedmaintenance,butoutputlikelydeclinedby170kb/dinAugustonreducedoutput
fromtheStatfjordarea,shutinsattheValhallfield,andreducedNGLoutput.Maintenanceisoffsetbya
restarttoproductionfromthe25kb/dVisundfield,whichhadbeenshutinsinceAprilduetoagasleak.
Looking forward over the next few quarters, we expect Norwegian production to continue to decline
yearonyearby25kb/dinthefourthquarterandby40kb/din2012.
The outlook for 2012 production has been adjusted lower for three main reasons. First, news reports
indicate a three to four month delayed start up to the 80kb/d SkarvIdun gas and condensate field,
which operator BP had expected on stream in August. Second, recent production statistics show that
somefieldsproductionlevelsarelowerthannormaldespiteareturnfrommaintenance.Finally,news
reports indicate that the 130kb/d Grane field has had problems with its injection compressor as it
completed planned maintenance. Downward revisions now leave Norwegian oil production averaging
2.12mb/din2H11and2.07mb/dnextyear.
mb/d
1.7
UK Offshore Crude Oil Supply
mb/d
Total Norway Oil Supply
2.6
1.5
1.3
2.2
1.1
1.8
0.9
Jan
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
Jan
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
UKJulyactual:Followingwidespreadmaintenance,JulyUKoffshorecrudeoilproductiondeclinedby
around100kb/dtoitslowestmonthlylevelforatleast30years.Withthe200kb/dBuzzardfieldstillat
reducedlevelsthroughAugust,crudeoiloutputwaslikelyevenlowerinAugustataround900kb/d.In
upcoming months, Buzzards return, albeit at a slow pace, as well as the completion of maintenance
turnarounds will raise UK output by around 300kb/d in the fourth quarter over 3Q11. Lowerthan
expectedproductionfromtheSchiehallionfieldandothersinFortiesleadstoamorepessimisticviewfor
thesefieldsin2012.MoreaggressivefielddeclineratesremainadownsiderisktotheUKoutlook.The
production base, net of production increases, is projected to decline by 20% in 2011. Incorporating
steeperdecline,butamorenormalprofileforBuzzardin2012leavesUKproductionlargelyunchanged
at2011slevelnear1.2mb/d.
Asia
AustraliaJulyactual:CrudeoilsupplyinAustraliafellby10kb/dinJulyto0.3mb/d,itslowestlevels
since early 2006. At that time, cyclones hampered output, but production has been lower this time
primarilybecauseofaprolongeddelayatWoodsides70kb/dWaimeaandCossackfieldastheCossack
24
12 O CTOBER 2011
S UPPLY
FPSOisswappedoutfortheOkhaFPSO.ProductionrestartedattheendofSeptember,andweexpectit
to reach 30kb/d by December. The prolonged outage has further reduced our assessment of 2H11
productionby30kb/d,andwehavelikewiselowered2012expectationsatthefield,causinga20kb/d
downwardadjustmentfortotalAustralianproduction.Despitethesedownwardrevisions,westillexpect
total liquids output to increase by 130kb/d to 580kb/d in 2012 on the addition of the Van Gogh and
recentlystartedKitanfieldsandhigherNGLoutput.
Non-OECD
Asia
ChinaAugustactual:ChinasoilproductionremainedflatatJulylevelsof4.1mb/dinAugustasshutins
at the Peng Lai platform offset growing output from the Changqing and Jilin fields. Overall, offshore
productioncameinaround100kb/dbelowlastmonthsexpectationduetothePengLaistoppage.Atthis
stage,Chineseproductionisstillexpectedtogrowby120kb/din2012to4.3mb/d,unlessthePengLai
stoppage extends beyond the 1Q12 assumed here. ConocoPhillips reported that depressurisation of the
reservoiratPengLaiisoccurringtolimitthepossibilityoffurtherleaks,andthecompanyreportedtheyare
workingonanewfielddevelopmentplanwithoutgivingfurtherdetails.
IndiaAugustactual:Indiasoutputremainedat880kb/dinAugustandshouldpostannualgrowthof
around 40kb/d in 2011. We have slightly tempered our expectation for growth in 2012 because of a
possibledelaytoCairnsplanstoproduceanadditional40kb/dfromtheBhagyamfieldintheRajasthan
block.Thegovernmenthasnotyetapprovedfielddevelopment,andthisalsoputsthe10kb/dthatwe
expected from the Aishwariya field in jeopardy. Approval is being delayed because of the company's
disputewithpartnerONGCoverroyaltypayments.Therefore,Indiasoveralloutputshouldcontinueto
grow in 2012 to 920kb/d with some new field additions in Rajasthan, but tempered by these above
groundfactorsandmaturefielddeclineatonshorefields.
MalaysiaAugustactual:Malaysiasoutputcontinueditsthreemonthupwardtrajectoryto670kb/din
AugustwithsomereboundingproductionfromtheKikehfield,whichhasbeenadverselyaffectedforthe
lastseveralmonthsduetoawellleakandsandintheoil.Outputatthe115kb/dfieldhadbeenroughly
halved since May 2011 as the operator waited for rig workovers to be completed. Operator Murphy Oil
reportedinAugustthatthefirstworkoverwellatKikehwassuccessful,butthiswasoffsetbyamechanical
problem at another 10kb/d well on the field. We estimate that Kikeh is currently producing around
60kb/dwiththreeproductionwellsremainingshutin(inadditiontothemechanicalproblematafourth
welldescribedabove).Withnewdetailsavailableaboutthetimingoffurtherphasesandaslowerexpected
rampup,wehavelowered4Q11and2012outputby30kb/dand10kb/drespectively.
mb/d
Indonesia Oil Supply
mb/d
Malaysia Oil Supply
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.6
Jan
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
Jan
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
IndonesiaJulyactual:OutputinIndonesiaincreasedby2.5%to920kb/dinJuly,butoutputfor3Q11
isexpectedtobearound7%lowerthan3Q10duetomaturefielddecline.Wehaveveryslightlylowered
12O CTOBER 2011
25
S UPPLY
ourmonthlyproductionestimateforSeptemberwhenafiretemporarilyshutinaround15kb/dofoilat
CNOOC'ssoutheastSumatrablock,wherecrudeoutputisestimatedat48kb/d.Maturefielddeclinein
2012willbemitigatedbyaround40kb/dofnewcrudeandcondensateoutput,andnewvolumesfrom
theExxonMobiloperatedCepuproject.ExxonMobilexpectstoincreasesupplyfromaround25kb/dto
165kb/dby2014.Inadditiontothe$750millionEPCcontractthatExxonMobilawardedinAugust,four
additional EPC contracts for the onshore and offshore pipeline, the FPSO, and other related
infrastructureneedtobeawardedfortheprojecttoachieveitstargetoutput.
Middle East
InSyria,theimpactofsanctionsisnowbeginningtobefeltonoiloutput.Gulfsandssaidproductionfrom
its Khurbet East and Yousefieh fields had been lowered from 24kb/d to 6kb/d from the beginning of
Octoberduetolackofdomesticcrudestoragecapacity.GiventhatthiscrudeandSyrianHeavygenerally
lieinamid20sAPIgravity,otherproducersmayalsobehavingsimilarproblemsmarketingtheircrude
oilproductiontootherbuyers.Asaresult,wehavereducedour4Q11forecastby20kb/d.2012output
issimilarlyrevisedlower,nowdecliningby30kb/dto330kb/d,albeittheabsenceoffieldspecificdata
makesprojectionsmoredifficult.
mb/d
0.4
Total Yemen Oil Supply
mb/d
Total Syria Oil Supply
0.40
0.3
0.35
0.2
0.1
0.30
Jan
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
Jan Mar May

2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
InYemen,pipelinesabotagecontinuestoreduceoutput,causingustolowerexpectationsfor4Q11by
almost20kb/d.TheMaribpipelinewassabotagedbymilitiasforthefifthtimesinceJulyduringthefirst
weekofOctober.The120kb/dcapacitypipelinemovesoilfromtheMaribandShabwaoilfieldstothe
RasIsaterminalontheRedSea,andthegovernmentmaintainsthatcrudeoilcontinuestoflowdespite
thesabotage.Beforethemostrecentbombing,traderswerereportedsayingthatthepipelineflowsto
Ras Isa had been reduced by around 35kb/d. Like Syria, the lack of recent monthly or even quarterly
productiondataalsocomplicatesanaccurateassessmentofsupplytrends.Asacautionarymeasure,we
have also reduced output by 10kb/d in 2012, pending a stabilisation of the political situation in the
country, the primary cause of the pipeline sabotage and worker strikes. Although President Saleh has
returnedtothecountryandhaspromisedtostanddown,theuncertainpoliticallandscapewillcontinue
tounderminethecountrysstability.Furtherdownwardrevisionstothe4Q2011and2012outlookare
likelyiftheviolencecontinues.
Former Soviet Union (FSU)

Russia September actual: Russia's total oil output hit another postSoviet high of 10.6 mb/d in
September, driven by expanding output at TNKBP greenfields and rising production from Bashneft.
LukoilsproductioninSeptemberremainedlargelyonparwithlastmonthslevels,but3Q11production
is100kb/dlowerthan2010levels,mainlyondecliningproductionatlegacyfieldsandpoorperformance
attheYuzhnoKhylchuyuskoyefield.Weexpectproductionfromsomecompaniestoincreasefurtherin
upcomingmonthswiththeapplicationofthenew6066exportdutycalculation.OnbalanceRussian
liquidsproductionshouldmaintainlevelsofaround10.6mb/d.SeelastmonthsRussia:Upstreamand
26
12 O CTOBER 2011
S UPPLY
ExportImpactsofthe6066TaxRegimeinOMRdated13September2011foramorecomprehensive
discussion. The 6066 regime reduces the marginal crude export duty rate from 65% to 60%, which
enhancestheprofitabilityofupstreamprojects.Thecrudeexportdutyfellby7.4%inOctoberfromthe
priormonthtoaround$56/bbl.
kb/d
Russian Crude Production by

Company - Annual Change
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
2009
Yukos
Surgut
Bashneft
2010
Rosneft
Gazpromneft
Sidanco
2011
Lukoil
PSAs
Slavneft
2012
mb/d
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
FSU Oil Supply
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Russia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan Other FSU
TNK
Tatneft
Others
Kazakhstan August actual: Oil output rebounded by over 100kb/d in August to 1.6 mb/d on
recovering output from the 550kb/d Tengiz field. The return from maintenance was quicker than
expectedandraisedthebaselineproductionlevelin2011.Inaddition,wehaveacceleratedthedecline
rateatothermaturefieldsinKazakhstanduetoseveralmonthsoflacklustreperformance.Alongsidea
recentoilworkersstrike,thesetwofactorsresultina10kb/dlower2012annualgrowthratethanlast
monthsassessment.Weexpectproductionin2012tostayonparwith2011at1.6mb/d.
FSU Net Exports of Crude & Petroleum Products

2009
2010
3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Latest month vs.

Jul 11 Aug 10
Crude
Black Sea
2.28
2.10
2.12
2.02
2.06
1.87
1.82
1.69
1.95
0.26
-0.31
Baltic
1.60
1.60
1.56
1.60
1.48
1.57
1.43
1.34
1.33
-0.01
-0.30
Arctic/FarEast
0.46
0.74
0.67
0.78
0.70
0.69
0.66
0.64
0.65
0.01
0.05
BTC
0.80
0.77
0.81
0.80
0.72
0.76
0.79
0.69
0.70
0.01
-0.15
Crude Seaborne
5.15
5.22
5.17
5.19
4.96
4.89
4.71
4.36
4.63
0.27
-0.71
Druzhba Pipeline
1.11
1.13
1.16
1.14
1.14
1.12
1.10
1.17
1.14
-0.03
0.06
Other Routes
0.40
0.42
0.40
0.43
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.55
0.52
-0.03
0.12
Total Crude Exports

Of Which: Transneft1
6.66
6.76
6.73
6.76
6.63
6.55
6.36
6.08
6.29
0.21
-0.53
3.93
4.00
4.04
4.02
4.15
4.16
3.94
4.05
3.98
-0.07
-0.09
Products
Fuel oil2
1.41
1.54
1.63
1.51
1.43
1.82
1.88
1.70
1.51
-0.19
-0.13
Gasoil
0.95
0.88
0.82
0.81
0.90
0.79
0.74
0.71
0.75
0.04
-0.10
Other Products
0.53
0.43
0.43
0.37
0.48
0.53
0.45
0.40
0.35
-0.05
-0.05
Total Product
2.89
2.85
2.88
2.69
2.81
3.14
3.07
2.80
2.60
-0.20
-0.28
Total Exports
9.54
9.61
9.61
9.45
9.44
9.68
9.43
8.89
8.90
0.01
-0.82
Imports
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.06
0.07
0.01
0.00
Net Exports
9.49
9.55
9.53
9.37
9.39
9.62
9.35
8.83
8.83
0.00
-0.82
Sources: Argus Media Ltd, IEA estimates

1
Transneft data exclude Russian CPC volumes.

Includes Vacuum Gas Oil
FSUnetoilexportsremainedflatinAugustat8.8mb/dasa200kb/dincreaseincrudeexportsoffseta
210kb/ddecreaseinproductexports.Netexportsnowstandover800kb/dlowerthanyearagolevels
drivenbya500kb/ddecreaseincrudelargelyduetotheyearonyeargrowthinrefineryrunsrequired
tosatisfyhealthydomesticdemand.Crudevolumesroseto6.3mb/donthemonthlargelydrivenbya
rise in Caspian shipments, despite the continued low utilisation of the BTC pipeline. In the Black Sea,
Odessa saw exports rise by 140kb/d, largely after TengizChevroil railed extra Tengiz crude oil to the
2
12O CTOBER 2011
27
S UPPLY
terminal.Additionally,CPCvolumesreturnedtonormal700kb/dlevels,risingby40kb/donthemonth.
Transneftvolumesdroppedby70kb/dto4.0mb/d,100kb/dlowerthanayearago.Balticshipmentsfell
afurther20kb/dfollowingcontinuingmaintenanceatPrimorskandonitssupplypipeline.Druzhbaflows
werealsocutby30kb/dwithlowerdeliveriestoHungaryandtheCzechandSlovakRepublics.Looking
forward,loadingschedulesindicateTransneftvolumesarelikelytorebound,butFSUexportscouldbe
cappedbylowerflowsthroughtheCPCandBTCpipelines.
Followinganuptickinrefinerymaintenanceandbuoyantdomesticdemand,productexportsplungedby
afurther200kb/dfromJulysalreadylowlevelto2.6mb/dinAugust.Fueloilwasagainthedriverfor
this decline with Baltic deliveries, notably sent via Tallinn, falling sharply, on reports suggesting that
Russian refineries ran this product as a feedstock. The 90% emergency export tax on light products
appears to be having its desired affect of incentivising domestic supply at the expense of exports, as
shipmentsofnaphtha(includedhereunderotherproducts)fellbyaconsiderable70kb/d.
Eastern Europe Looks Past the Druzhba

The imminent start up of the Baltic Pipeline System2
Dependency on Russian Crude Oil
(BPS2) and the expected late2012 commencement of
Imports in 2010
the Eastern Siberian Oil Pipeline2 pipeline extension 100%
from Skovorodino to the Pacific coast have once again
80%
focused attention on the dynamics of Russias crude
60%
export destinations. Indeed, Eastern European
governments have long been exploring routes to
40%
facilitatethediversificationoftheircrudeimportsaway
20%
from their heavy reliance on Russian Urals via the
Druzhba pipeline. These states have two concerns;
0%
firstly, that their supplies could be compromised in the
Czech Hungary Poland
Slovak
event of a shortterm dispute between Russia and a
Republic
Republic
transit state, and secondly that Russia will eventually
looktoreorientitsexportstowardsnorthernandeasternoutletsleadingtoreducedDruzhbaflows.Indeed,
overthepastmonthsPoland,Slovakia,andHungaryhaverestatedtheirintenttodiversifycrudeimports
awayfromRussiaandseveralplansforinfrastructureupgradeshavereemerged.
PolandrecentlydeclareditsintentiontoimportAzericrudeviaUkraineandBelaruswithshipmentsplannedto
starteitherlate2011orearly2012.Initially,theoilwillfollowtheroutealreadyusedtosupplyBelaruswithAzeri
crudewhereitwillentertheOdessaBrodypipelinefollowedbyanalreadyreversedsegmentoftheSouthern
DruzhbatoMozyr.CrudecouldentertheNorthernDruzhbatowardsPolandorevenberefinedatMozyr.Inthe
longterm, a pipeline is planned between Brody and Polands inland refinery at Plock bypassing Belarus. Such
infrastructure would permit Poland to receive alternative supplies while also permitting Azerbaijan to supply
othercountriesconnectedtotheDruzhbanetwork.However,withanenvironmentalimpactassessmentonthe
BrodyPlock leg not scheduled until 2H12 but
with funding available under the EU
Infrastructure and Environment program, this
remainsalongtermproject.
Proposed pipeline expansion / construction
28
Hungary and Slovakia are currently exploring

the idea of using the Adria pipeline running
between the Croatian port of Omisalj and
HungarywithaspurrunningfromHungaryto
Bratislava. However, in order for this to be a
viable alternative for all countries involved,
both the Adria pipeline and its Slovakian spur
require significant investment to increase
capacity towards a level capable of replacing
volumes supplied by the Druzhba.
12 O CTOBER 2011
S UPPLY
Eastern Europe Looks Past the Druzhba (continued)

Additionally,SlovakiaisexploringoptionsforimportingcrudeviatheCzechRepublicwhichalreadyimports
a significant portion of their crude from outside Russia via the Transalpine (TAL) and Ingolstat Kralupy
Litvinov(IKL)pipelines.ThisplanwouldinvolvethereversaloftheDruzhbalinkandthuswouldneedtobe
mutuallybeneficialforbothcountries.AnotherobstaclewouldbetherequiredcapacityupgradeoftheIKL
pipeline,asatpresentits200kb/dcapacityisonlysufficienttosupplyCzechrefineries.
DespitetheseproposedprojectsitshouldbenotedthatevenwiththearrivaloftheESPOstage1in2010,
and the producers choice to send some Western Siberian oil on this route, there has been no major
reduction in Druzhba flows yet. This report has previously (see FSU Exporters Branching Out in 2009
MediumTerm Oil Market Report) identified the impact of Russian infrastructure developments as being
moredetrimentaltoflowscomingoutoftheBlackSearatherthantheDruzhba.Nonetheless,theimpetus
todiversifysourcesofsupplyremainsclear.
Latin America
BrazilJulyactual:Maintenanceatoffshorefieldsledto mb/d
Brazil Crude Oil Supply
the lowest level of Rio de Janeiro offshore production
since November 2008, at 1.52 mb/d in July, and 2.4
preliminaryAugustdataindicatethatproductionfelleven
2.2
further.StartupattheMarlimSulfieldmaymitigatefield
maintenance, but not until September. The Brazilian 2.0
crudeoilproductionestimatefor2012islowereddueto
field level analysis showing production from fields in 1.8
decline.Inparticular,productionfromJabutiandMarlim
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan
Leste, Parque das Conchas, Cachalote, and Roncador
2008
2009
2010
2011
fields are expected to decline at a quicker rate than
2011 forecast
2012 forecast
originallyforecast,whichleadstoarevisionof90kb/dfor
4Q11and2012.Thismonthwehaverevisedtheethanoloutputforecastfurtherby20kb/din4Q2011
andbyaround10kb/din2012becauseofthelacklustresugarcaneharvest.
ColombiaJulyactual,Augustprovisional:Colombianoutputfellby50kb/dinJulyto900kb/donthe
impactofprotestsattheRubialesfield,jointlyownedbyPetromineralesandEcopetrol.Newsreports
indicate that protests continued to hamper output growth in August and September. Petrominerales
outputalsosufferedfromcontinuedblockagesatitsCorcelandGuiatiquiafieldsinSeptember,reducing
outputbyaround15kb/dinJuly.Theirrecentfinancialupdateindicatesthat95%ofthisproductionhas
returned,butthethreatofcontinuedprotestspersists.Arecentagreementbetweenthecompanyand
its workers could prevent further disruptions except not all the unions support it, and it could also
increase Petrominerales operating costs. Consequently, we have reduced 2H11 output by 30kb/d,
althoughourexpectationthatColombiawillreachanaverageof1.0mb/din2012remainsunchanged.
12O CTOBER 2011
29
OECD S TOCKS
OECD STOCKS
Summary
OECD industry stocks fell by 3.4mb to 2692mb in August, contrasting with a 14.0mb fiveyear
average seasonal build. Crude stocks dropped by 10.8mb, as higher refinery throughputs in the
Pacificrandownregionalcrudeholdings.Elsewhere,seasonaldrawsweretemperedbylowrefinery
runs in Europe and deliveries from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in North America.
Distillate and other products restocking in North America and the Pacific pushed OECD product
stocks9.4mbhigher.
OECDforwarddemandcoverhoweverrosemarginallyto58.4daysinAugust,from58.2daysinJuly,
andinsodoingremained1.3daysabovethefiveyearaverage.However,theabsolutedeficitofOECD
oilinventoriesversusthefiveyearaveragewidenedto22.5mbinAugustandindustrystocksstood
morethan100mbbelowinflatedAugust2010levels.
Preliminarydatapointtoa12.7mbdeclineinOECDindustryholdingsinSeptember,asbothcrude
and products declined seasonally. Strong refinery runs weighed on crude stocks in the US, while
Europeancrudeandproductholdingsalsocontracted.However,gainsinUSproductsandinJapanese
oilinventoriesprovidedapartialcushion.
Shorttermoilfloatingstoragedeclinedto43.4mbinSeptember,from48.3mbinAugust.Offshore
crudeoilholdingsfellto33.2mb,asvolumesheldintheUSGulfandNorthwestEuropewerebrought
ashore. Meanwhile, refined products held in floating storage dropped to 10.2mb, following
thedischargeofavesselnearWestAfrica.
OECD Inventory Position at End-August and Revisions to Preliminary Data

OECD industry oil inventories fell by 3.4mb to 2692mb, or 58.4days of forward demand cover, in
August. Crude oil stocks dropped by 10.8mb, with the majority of the draw coming from the Pacific
where higher refinery runs led to reduced inventories. North American and European crude stocks
decreasedbyamodest0.9mbeach,temperedbylowrefineryrunsinEuropeandfinaldeliveriesfrom
theUSSPRbalancingneedsforhigherrefineryinputsinNorthAmerica.AugustdatashowEuropeanoil
stocks have fallen by more than 70mb since January, and now stand 44.4mb below the fiveyear
average.
Preliminary Industry Stock Change in August 2011 and Second Quarter 2011
August (preliminary)
(million barrels)
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
1
Other Oils
Total Oil
N. Am
Europe
Pacific
-0.9
-6.3
4.7
1.2
7.5
7.1
-3.8
2.5
-0.9
-1.6
-0.6
1.7
-0.1
-0.5
-0.1
-1.6
-9.0
0.1
3.1
-1.8
1.4
2.8
1.9
-4.3
Second Quarter 2011


Total
N. Am
Europe
Pacific
Total
N. Am
Europe
Pacific
Total
-10.8
-7.8
7.2
1.2
8.8
9.4
-2.0
-3.4
-0.03
-0.20
0.15
0.04
0.24
0.23
-0.12
0.08
-0.03
-0.05
-0.02
0.06
0.00
-0.02
0.00
-0.05
-0.29
0.00
0.10
-0.06
0.05
0.09
0.06
-0.14
-0.35
-0.25
0.23
0.04
0.28
0.30
-0.06
-0.11
0.02
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.35
0.28
0.17
0.47
-0.01
-0.09
-0.12
-0.02
0.04
-0.20
0.04
-0.18
0.01
0.01
0.14
0.01
0.02
0.18
0.06
0.26
0.02
-0.09
-0.03
-0.03
0.41
0.26
0.27
0.55
1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.
Meanwhile, product inventories rose by 9.4mb in August, led by gains in middle distillates and other
products, albeit weakerthanseasonal. Motor gasoline stocks declined by 7.8mb. Distillates rose by
7.2mb,drivenbyrestockinginNorthAmericaandinthePacific,butthemonthlybuildwaslowerthan
normal as distillates in Europe fell counterseasonally by 0.6mb. This was due to stronger European
distillatedemandlikelydrivenbyfillingofheatingoiltanksbyconsumers.
30
12O CTOBER 2011
OECD S TOCKS
From Peak to Trough in a Year, But Is This the Low-Point for Stocks Already?
August2010OECDindustryoilinventoriesreachedtheirsecondhighestlevelsincethestartofofficialOECD
MonthlyOilStatisticsreportingin1984.Followingseveralrevisionsoverthepastyear,thedatanowshow
that, at 2796mb, OECD stocks in August 2010 stood only a modest 0.8mb short of all time record highs
from August 1998. A lot has changed in one year. A neverending chain of supply and refining outages
causedbyvariousweather,labour,technicalorpoliticalproblems,hascontributedtothesteadyerosionof
OECDinventorylevelsandindustrystockshavefallenbymorethan100mb.Thestockoverhangof119mb
ayearagoturnedintoadeficitversusthefiveyearaverageof22.5mbinAugust.Itisworthnotingthatthe
fiveyearaverageisarollingbenchmark.
mb
OECD Total Oil Stocks
mb
2,800
200
2,750
150
2,700
100
2,650
50
2,600
2,550
OECD Industry Total Oil Stocks

Relative to Five-Year Average
-50
2,500
Jan Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
-100
Aug 09 Feb 10
Pacific
Europe
Aug 10
Feb 11 Aug 11
North Am erica
OECD
The North American overhang decreased from 117mb to 45.6mb. Product stocks contracted due to
stronger exports, but crude stocks remained elevated due to higher volumes imported from Canada,
infrastructure bottlenecks and export restrictions. A European surplus of 31mb reverted to a 44.4mb
deficit,whilethePacificshortfallnarrowedfrom29mbto23.7mbinoneyear.Pacificstockswerealready
declining structurally before Marchs disastrous earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Recovery efforts and
nuclear outages in Japan temporarily reversed this trend and encouraged higher levels of stockholding.
Meanwhile, European stocks were particularly hardhit during the past year by a number of supplyside
elementswhichhavedrivencrudestockslower.LabourstrikesinFranceinOctober2010,thelossofLibyan
supplies, North Sea production outages, force majeure on Nigerian crude exports as well as the gradual
redirectionofRussiancrudeflowstowardsAsiaallcontributed.Furthermore,lowrefiningprofitabilityhas
depressedEuropeanrefineryoutputandcurbedregionalproductholdings.
mb
OECD Crude Oil Stocks

mb
100
100
75
80
50
60
25
40
20
-25
-50
Aug 09
Feb 10
Pacific
Europe
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
North Am erica
OECD
-20
Aug 09
OECD Distillate Stocks

Feb 10
Pacific
Europe
Aug 10
Feb 11
Aug 11
North Am erica
OECD
ThereleaseofoilviatheIEALibyaCollectiveActionoccurredinrecognitionoftighteningindustrystocksand
a desire to avoid further sharp stock draws which risked a damaging spike in 3Q11 prices. The fact that
marketshavecontinuedtotightensinceraisesthequestionastowhetherweakeningeconomicgrowthand
oildemandorcontinuedsupplysideoutageswillpredominatethroughend2011andinto2012.
12O CTOBER 2011
31
OECD S TOCKS
OECD industry oil holdings were revised up by 7.8mb upon the receipt of more complete July data.
Therevision implies a 17.8mb build in July versus a previously reported 10.8mb increase in the last
report.Gasoline,distillatesandotheroilscameinhigher,whiledownwardadjustmentswerecentredin
crude,fueloilandotherproducts.
Revisions versus 13 September 2011 Oil Market Report
(million barrels)
North America
Jun-11
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
1
Other Oils
Total Oil
1.3
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.2
1.0
0.3
2.6
Europe
Pacific
Jul-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
-6.8
-0.8
6.6
1.8
-1.8
5.9
4.9
4.0
-3.9
2.5
-0.6
0.1
0.0
2.1
-0.1
-2.0
-0.4
3.8
-2.4
-3.4
0.2
-1.8
2.8
0.5
Jun-11
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
OECD
Jul-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
2.4
0.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.6
0.9
-0.2
3.2
-2.6
2.8
-0.2
0.1
0.2
3.0
0.3
0.7
-4.7
3.7
4.0
-1.7
-1.0
5.0
7.5
7.8
1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.
IEA Libya Collective Action: Accounting for Government Oil Inventories in August
Government barrels released as part of the IEA Libya Collective Action mitigated the drop in industry oil
inventories, especially in the US. After a release of 30.6mb of light sweet oil from the US SPR (of which
8.3mbwasdeliveredinJulyand22.3mbinAugust),NorthAmericanindustrycrudestocksfellbyamodest
0.9mbinAugust,despiteanactivehurricaneseason,elevatedrefinerythroughputsandlowimports.Yet,
weeklydatapointtoasharp17.4mbdrawinUScommercialcrudeinventoriesinSeptember,alsodrivenin
partbylowerproductionduetoweatherrelatedshutinsintheUSGulf.
mb
US Weekly Crude SPR Stocks
mb
750
200
730
195
710
190
690
185
180
670
Source: EIA
650
Jan
Germany Total Oil Government

Stocks
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
175
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
InEurope,preliminarydataindicatedrawsofonly1.1mband0.7mbinJulyandAugustgovernmentstocks,
respectively, whereas Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands released 3.9mb of government oil. Part of
this apparent discrepancy relates to stock releases being masked by other public stock movements,
unrelatedtothesaleofIEAvolumes.InthecaseofGermany,governmentstockstraditionallyshowmore
frequentturnoverthananyotherIEAmembercountry.Overthepastfiveyears,publicstockshavetended
to rise by anaverage0.3mb in July and fall by 0.5mb inAugustand suchbackgroundchanges inpublic
stockholdingshelpexplainwhyGermandatashowonlya2.0mbdeclineoverJulyandAugustcomparedto
anactual2.6mbrelease.
In the case of the Netherlands, a pledge to sell 1.2mb of oil from public stocks far exceeds the reported
releaseofonly0.4mbfromgovernmentstocksinJuly.Afterinvestigation,itnowappearsthataportionof
oil owned by the Dutch stockholding agency was misreported in the industry category. Hopefully these
volumescanbecorrectlyreallocatedinsubsequentdatasubmissions.
In Korea, following a release of 3.5mb of government stocks in July in the form of a loan, companies
surprisingly returned 1.8mb, of which 85% was crude, in August. This may reflect the fact that since the
JapaneseearthquakeinMarchKoreanrefinershavebeenholdingextracrudeinordertohelpreplacelost
distillateexportsfromJapan.Arguably,thislefttheminapositiontorapidlyreturnloanedcrudebarrels.
32
12O CTOBER 2011
OECD S TOCKS
PreliminarySeptemberdataindicatea 12.7mbdeclineinOECDindustryinventories,sharperthan the

8.0mbfiveyearaveragedraw.StrongrefineryrunsweigheduponcrudestocksintheUS,whichfellby
17.4mb.Europeancrudestockscontractedby4.3mb,whileincreasesinJapanprovidedapartialoffset.
Drawsindistillatesandfueloiloffsetgainsingasoline,thusbringingproductholdingsdownby2.5mb.
Meanwhile,oilfloatingstoragedropped4.9mbto43.4mbinSeptember,from48.3mbinAugust.
Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes

OECD North America
IndustryoilinventoriesinNorthAmericaroseseasonallyby2.5mbto1363mbinAugust.Despitehigher
regional refinery throughputs, industry crude stocks edged lower by a modest 0.9mb, supported by a
deliveryof22.3mboflightsweetcrudefromtheUSSPRaspartofthewiderIEALibyaCollectiveAction.
By contrast, over the past five years, North American crude oil stocks have decreased by 3.9mb on
averageinAugust.Meanwhile,holdingsofrefinedproductsgained7.1mbdrivenbysharperincreasein
other products and a 4.7mb addition to distillates. A counterseasonal 3.8mb draw in other oils,
comprisingNGLsandfeedstocks,anda6.3mbdeclineingasolineprovidedapartialoffset.
OECD North America Crude Oil

Stocks
mb
520
500
OECD North America Gasoline

Stocks
mb
270
260
480
250
460
240
440
230
420
400
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
220
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Weekly EIA data point to a sharp 14.0mb decline in US commercial inventories in September,
contrasting with a more seasonal 6.5mb average monthly build over the past five years. Refiners
trimmedstrongthroughputsslightlyfromthepreviousmonth;neverthelesscrudestocksplummetedby
17.4mb.CrudeimportswerelowinSeptemberespeciallyintotheEastCoast,likelyaffectedinpartby
thepassageofHurricaneIreneatendAugust,whileTropicalStormLeeshutdownproductionintheUS
GulfatthebeginningofSeptember.Areleaseof4.4mbofcrudefromshorttermfloatingstorageheldin
theUSGulfdidnotprovideasbiganoffsetasthedeliveryofSPRbarrelsinJulyandAugust.Meanwhile,
inventoriesatCushingfellto30.1mbatendSeptember,11.8mbbelowtheirpeakinApril.
mb
390
US Weekly Industry Crude Oil Stocks
mb
45
US Weekly Cushing Crude Stocks
40
370
35
350
30
330
25
310
20
290
15
Source: EIA
270
Jan
12O CTOBER 2011
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
Source: EIA
10
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
33
OECD S TOCKS
USrefinedproductinventoriesincreasedseasonallyby3.8mbinSeptember.Gasolineholdingsroseby
4.9mb, again widening the surplus to the fiveyear average. Motor fuel holdings were oscillating
between fiveyear average and prior year elevated levels as a weak driving season reduced gasoline
demand and refiners diverted supply to export outlets including Latin America and West Africa.
Meanwhile, distillates gained 2.8mb, driven by gains in jet fuel/kerosene holdings, and fuel oil stocks
declinedcounterseasonallyby4.2mb,likelyonhigherexportstotheAsiaPacific.
mb
US Weekly Jet/Kerosene Stocks
mb
US Weekly Fuel Oil Stocks
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
Source: EIA
35
Jan
Source: EIA
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
30
Jan
5-yr Average
2011
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
OECD Europe
Industry oil inventories in Europe declined by 1.6mb to 921mb in August, as crude and products
declined by 0.9mb and 0.5mb, respectively. The regions oil stocks plummeted to their lowest level
sinceNovember2007,adrawinpartallowedbylowerstockholdingobligationsrelatedtotheIEALibya
Collective Action by providing a greater flexibility to the operators. This is in contrast with a seasonal
4.1mbfiveyearaveragegain,asstrongrefineryrunsnormallydepletecrudestocksandallowproduct
tankstoberefilledaheadofwinter.Thisyear,anumberofsupplysidefactors(seeFromPeaktoTrough
in a Year, But Is This the LowPoint for Stocks Already?) have brought crude stocks 25mb lower since
January,tothelowestlevelssinceFebruary2003.Yet,crudestocksremain nearcomfortablefiveyear
averagelevelswhenmeasuredintermsofforwardcruderunscover(crudestocksversusforecastcrude
runsoverthenextthreemonths)onthebackofwhatwilllikelyremaindepressedrefinerythroughputs.
mb
OECD Europe Crude Oil Stocks
days
360
29
350
28
340
27
330
26
320
25
310
24
300
Jan
OECD Europe Crude Forward Cover
30
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
23
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
By the same token, belowaverage refinery throughputs have contributed to a 46.8mb reduction in
product stocks since January, with distillate draws accounting for twothirds of the decline. Middle
distillatestocks,whichusuallybuildby8.9mbonaverage,fellby0.6mbinAugust,althoughheatingoil
restocking by German consumers also likely contributed to the primary stock fall. German enduser
heating oil stocks stood at 56% of capacity at endAugust, lower than the seasonal average 60% fill.
Moreover,gasolineholdings,drawingbya1.6mbinAugust,shrankto thelowestlevelsonrecord.As
such,Europeanproductstocksfellto19.1mbbelowthefiveyearaverageinAugust.
34
12O CTOBER 2011
OECD Europe Middle Distillates

Stocks
mb
320
OECD S TOCKS
mb
OECD Europe Gasoline Stocks
120
115
300
110
280
105
260
100
240
95
220
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
90
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
PreliminaryEuroilstockdatasignalaseasonal10.7mbdeclineinEU15andNorwayinSeptember,inline
with the 16.1mb fiveyear average draw. Crude inventories contracted by 4.3mb, while a sharp drop
inmiddle distillates drove products 6.4mb lower. Refined oil products held in independent storage
inNorthwestEuropedeclined,ledbyfurtherdrawsingasolineholdings.
OECD Pacific
CommercialoilinventoriesintheOECDPacificfellby4.3mbto408mbinAugust.Crudestocksdeclined
by9.0mb,ashigherrefineryrunsreducedcrudeholdingsinJapanby6.9mb,whilelowerimportsand
aprecipitousreturnof1.5mbofearlierloanedgovernmentstockscontributedtoa2.3mbdecreasein
crude stocks in Korea (see IEA Libya Collective Action: Accounting for Government Oil Inventories in
August).Meanwhile,productstocksandotheroilsroseby2.8mband1.9mb,respectively.Distillates
gained 3.1mb, driven by kerosene restocking in Japan. However, fuel oil stocks dropped counter
seasonally,duetoelevatedKoreanexportstosatisfydemandinJapan,SingaporeandHongKong.
OECD Pacific Crude Oil Stocks
mb
mb
190
26
180
24
170
22
160
20
150
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
18
Jan
OECD Pacific Fuel Oil Stocks
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Weekly data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) suggest an 11.9mb increase in Japanese
industryoilinventoriesinSeptember.Crudeoilstocksgained9.9mbonlowerrefineryrunswhileother
oilsroseby2.0mb.Inthemeantime,productholdingsremainedvirtuallyunchangedasmodestdraws
ingasoline,distillatesandfueloilbalancedotherproductsgains.
mb
Japan Weekly Crude Stocks
130
120
110
100
90
Source: PAJ
80
Jan
12O CTOBER 2011
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
mb
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
Jan
Japan Weekly Unfinished Product

Stocks
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
35
OECD S TOCKS
Recent Developments in China and Singapore Stocks

AccordingtoChinaOil,GasandPetrochemicals(OGP),ChinesecommercialoilinventoriesroseinAugust
byanequivalentof2.8mb(dataarereportedintermsofpercentagestockchange).Crudeoilholdings
rose by 2.0% (4.3mb) due to higher imports and lower refinery runs. Product stocks declined for the
third consecutive month, led by draws in diesel (1.7% or 1.2mb) and gasoline (1.2% or 0.6mb), while
kerosenestocksroseby2.6%(0.3mb)providingapartialoffset.
mb
20
China Monthly Oil Stock Change*
Singapore Weekly Residue Stocks
mb
30
15
10
25
20
15
(5)
10
(10)
So urce: China Oil, Gas and P etro chemicals
(15)
Feb 11
Crude
Apr 11
Gasoline
Jun 11
Gasoil
Aug 11
Kerosene
Source: Int ernat ional Enterprise
5
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
*Since August 2010, COGP only reports percentage stock change
Singaporeonshoreinventoriesfellby1.4mbinSeptember,drivenbyadrawinfueloilinventories.Fuel
oilstocksfellby2.9mbonlowerimports.Meanwhile,lightandmiddledistillatesstocksroseby1.0mb
and0.5mb,respectively,ledbystrongerimportsfromotherAsiancountries.However,distillatestocks
felltowardstheendofSeptemberfollowingShell'smajorSingaporerefineryoutage.
36
12O CTOBER 2011
OECD S TOCKS
Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks

(in days of forward demand and millions barrels of total oil)
Days1
Days
Million Barrels
60
mb
1,450
58
1,400
56
1,350
North America
54
North America
1,300
52
1,250
50
1,200
48
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Days
72
Sep
Nov
Jan
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Avg 2006-2010
2011
mb
1,020
Europe
70
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Europe
1,000
68
980
66
960
64
62
940
60
920
58
900
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Days
58
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
mb
480
Pacific
56
54
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Pacific
460
440
52
420
50
400
48
46
380
44
Jan
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
360
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Days
62
Sep
Nov
Jan
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
mb
2,800
OECD Total Oil
60
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
OECD Total Oil
2,750
58
2,700
56
2,650
54
2,600
52
2,550
50
Jan
Mar
May
Range 2006-2010
2010
Jul
Sep
Nov
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Jan
Jan
Mar
1 Days of forward demand are based on average demand over the next three months
12O CTOBER 2011
May
Range 2006-2010
2010
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
37
P RICES
PRICES
Summary
OilfuturespricesmovedintandemwiththelatesteconomicdevelopmentsinSeptemberamidthe
worsening European debt crisis and pervasive fears of further deterioration in recessionhit
countries. By the first week of October benchmark crudes had fallen $8.5011.50/bbl from loftier
earlySeptemberlevels.Atwritingpriceshadrecoveredfromtheirlows,withWTIlasttradingaround
$84.50/bblandBrentat$108/bbl.
Whileglobaleconomicconcernshavebeenakeyinfluence,supplyanddemandfundamentalsare
nonethelesshavingamoreimmediateimpactonspotcrudemarkets.InSeptember,marketswere
supportedbymorerobustdemandinEuropeandAsia,especiallyforMiddleEastgrades,asscheduled
refinery turnarounds complete over the next four to six weeks. The return of Libyan crude to the
market has been partially countered by continued supply disruptions in the North Sea and Nigeria
whileOECDinventorieshavetightenedfurther.
With few exceptions, refined product markets saw crack spreads weaken on average in all major
regionsinSeptember.GasolinecrackspreadsintheAtlanticbasineasedasadisappointingsummer
drivingseasoncametoacloseandrefineriesreturnedfrommaintenance.However,towardsmonth
endandintoearlyOctoberproductcrackspreadsimprovedontighteningproductmarketsfollowinga
fireatakeySingaporerefinery.
FreightratesforthebenchmarkVLCCMiddleEastGulfJapanrouterecededfurtherinSeptember
followingadropinthenumberofcargoesleavingtheGulfaswellastheretreatinbunkeringcosts,
whichhadpreviouslyhelpedtobuttressrates.
Crude Futures
Front Month Close
$/bbl
130
110
Source: ICE, NYMEX
120
105
110
100
100
95
90
90
8Oct2011
Source: ICE, NYMEX
80
85
70
Sep 10
NYMEX WTI & ICE Brent

Forward Price Curves
$/bbl
80
Dec 10
Mar 11
NYMEX WTI
Jun 11
Sep 11
ICE Brent
M1 2
NYMEX WTI
9 10 11 12
ICE Brent
Market Overview
OilfuturespricesweretetheredtothelatesteconomicdevelopmentsinSeptemberamidtheworsening
European debt crisis. The eurozone quagmire has kept futures markets on tenterhooks and triggered
downward price moves throughout September amid expectations of weakening oil demand. However,
overall price moves in September were muted on a monthonmonth basis, with WTI off by just
$0.73/bblto$85.61/bblwhileBrentwasflatat$109.91/bbl.
BythefirstweekofOctober,benchmarkcrudeshadfallen$8.5011.50/bblfromloftierearlySeptember
levels. WTI touched its lowest level in a year, flirting with $75/bbl while Brent hit an 8month trough,
falling below the $100/bbl threshold for the first time since the start of the Libyan crisis. At writing,
priceshavepartiallyrecoveredfromtheir4OctoberlowsonrenewedoptimismthatEuropeanleaders
weretakingconcretemeasurestostemtheeconomicmalaise,withWTIlasttradingaround$84.50/bbl
andBrent$108/bbl.
38
12 O CTOBER 2011
NYMEX WTI vs S&P 500
US$/bbl
120
P RICES
US$/bbl
120
Index
1500
110
NYMEX WTI vs US Dollar Index

Source: ICE, NYMEX
Index
70
110
1400
75
100
100
1300
1200
80
70
80
90
90
80
85
1100
70
1000
60
Source: NYMEX
60
Jan 10
Jul 10
NYMEX WTI
Jan 11
S&P 500 (RHS)
90
Jan 10
Jul 11
Jul 10
NYMEX WTI
Jan 11
Jul 11
US Dollar Index (inversed RHS)
Financial markets are closely dissecting the contentious debate among European officials and
policymakersatinternationalorganisationsastheystruggletorescueeconomiesonthebrink,especially
Greece.Inturn,thishasbuttressedoilscorrelationtoequitymarkets.Oilfuturesmarketsaregrasping
atany positivecommentsfromEuropeanleadersastheysearch forsustainablesolutions tosovereign
debt issues, craft a plan for recapitalising banks and tackle the difficult task of increasing economic
coordinationintheeurozonebeforethe34NovemberG20summitinCannes.Amoreupbeatrhetoric
(nottomentionsomeencouragingeconomicdata)hasemergedinrecentdays,whichhasaddedsome
upwardmomentumtooilfuturesprices.
TheWTIM1M12contractsnarrowedinSeptember,toaround$2.50/bblcomparedwith$4.20/bblin
August. Meanwhile the Brent M1M12 backwardation deepened to around $4.60/bbl in September
compared with $1.55/bbl in August signalling a tighter prompt market despite the return of Libyan
crude supplies and steady downward revisions in global demand expectations for 2012. A growing
chorus of analysts and traders argue that demand next year will be over 1 mb/d higher than in 2011,
whichshouldmorethanaccommodatethereturnofLibyancrude.
Crude Futures
Forward Spreads
$/bbl
10
$/bbl
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-5
-10
Source: ICE, NYMEX
-15
Sep 10
Forward Price Spread (M1-M36)
-10
Source: ICE, NYMEX
-15
Dec 10 Mar 11
Jun 11
Sep 11
WTI M1-M12
Brent M1-M12
Sep 10
Dec 10
Mar 11
Brent
Jun 11
WTI
Sep 11
Onthesupplyside,thefasterthanexpectedrampupinLibyancrudeproductionduringSeptemberand
early October initially weighed on market sentiment and gave rise to speculation on whether or not
OPEC members, which stepped into the breach to offset lost Libyan supplies, will now implement a
corresponding cutback. Early indications are that Saudi Arabia, which increased crude production by
around 800kb/d to 1mb/d since last spring in a bid to replace lost Libyan supplies, is already in the
processofthrottlingbackoutput.
OPEC cutbacks to make way for rising Libyan supplies may be premature. Libyan officials have moved
quicklytorestoreoutputsincethefallofTripoliinearlySeptember,butsofartherehavebeenlimited
crudeexports,withalargeportionoftheoutputbeingusedtoreplenishstoragetanksatrefineries(see
12 O CTOBER 2011
39
P RICES
Supply Section, Libya Flexes its Production Muscle). Despite just a trickle of Libyan supply heading to
global markets, expectations of higher volumes in coming weeks and months are having a more
pronounced impact on the price spreads between light, sweet crudes and heavier sour grades in the
Mediterranean.
Prompt Month Oil Futures Prices

(monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl)
Jul
NYMEX
Light Sweet Crude Oil
97.34
RBOB
130.16
No.2 Heating Oil
129.25
No.2 Heating Oil ($/mmbtu)
22.19
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
4.35
ICE
Brent
116.75
Gasoil
130.22
Prompt Month Differentials
NYMEX WTI - ICE Brent
-19.41
NYMEX No.2 Heating Oil - WTI
31.91
NYMEX RBOB - WTI
32.82
NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack (RBOB)
32.52
NYMEX No.2 - Natural Gas ($/mmbtu 17.84
ICE Gasoil - ICE Brent
13.47
Aug
Sep
Sep-Aug
% Week Commencing:
Avg Chg Chg 05 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 03 Oct
86.34
120.53
123.92
21.27
3.98
85.61
114.46
123.22
21.15
3.85
-0.73
-6.07
-0.70
-0.12
-0.13
-0.9
-5.3
-0.6
-0.6
-3.5
87.91
119.56
127.22
21.84
3.94
88.93
83.77
115.70 110.70
124.84 121.67
21.43
20.89
3.92
3.75
81.45 79.71
110.55 108.38
118.43 117.37
20.33 20.15
3.76
3.58
109.93 109.91
125.27 124.89
-0.02
-0.39
0.0
-0.3
113.22
127.81
112.82 107.90
125.84 123.92
104.32 103.17
120.36 117.49
-23.59
37.58
34.19
35.32
17.29
15.35
-0.71
0.03
-5.34
-3.55
0.01
-0.36
-25.31
39.30
31.65
34.20
17.90
14.59
-23.89
35.91
26.76
29.81
17.51
13.02
-22.87
36.99
29.10
31.73
16.58
16.04
-24.30
37.61
28.85
31.77
17.31
14.98
-24.13
37.90
26.93
30.59
17.14
16.02
-23.46
37.67
28.67
31.67
16.57
14.33
Source: ICE, NYMEX
Futures Markets
Activity Levels
OpeninterestinWTIcontractsinNewYorkandLondonICEexchangesshowedconsiderablefluctuations
inSeptember.AfterreachingitshighestlevelsincemidJune inthesecondweekofAugust,openinterest
in New York plunged by about 200 000 in futuresonly contracts from its August peak of 1.56million
contracts to 1.37million in the week ending 20 September 2011. This was the lowest open interest in
futuresonlyWTIcontractsinNewYorksince30November2010(1.34millioncontractsopenthen),with
WTIthenat$84/bbl.Althoughopeninterestincreasedintheweekending4October2011,itregistered
a decline of more than 90 000 contracts, from 1.52 million to 1.43 million, from 6 September to
4October 2011. Meanwhile, open interest in futures and options contracts increased by 0.5% to
2.8million contracts. During the same period, open interest in London ICE WTI contracts declined in
futuresonlycontractsto0.44millionandincreasedincombinedcontractsto0.52million.
'000
Contracts
NYMEX WTI Mth1

Open Interest
'000
Contracts
$/bbl
1,600
120
200
1,500
100
100
1,400
80
60
-100
1,300
1,200
40
1,100
20
Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11

Open Interest
40
NYMEX WTI Mth1
Source: CFTC, NYMEX
$/bbl
88
83
-200
Source: CFTC, NYMEX
1,000
Net Positions in WTI Futures
78
09 Aug
23 Aug
06 Sep
Producers
Money Managers
Non-Reportables
20 Sep
04 Oct
Swap Dealers
Other Reportables
NYMEX WTI
12 O CTOBER 2011
P RICES
Money managers trimmed their bets on rising crude oil prices for three straight weeks in September,
sendingthenumberofnetfutureslongholdingstotheirlowestinayearintheweekending4October
as a response to resurgent fears about the health of global economy and outlook for oil demand. In
September, net futures long positions of managed money traders decreased from 154127 to 126093
contracts in New York. Similarly, money managers cut their Brent futures net long position by 64.3%
from69527to24776contracts,thelowestlevelsincetheICEstartedpublishingdatainJune2011.
Producersreducedtheirnetfuturesshortpositionstoathreeyearlowof127561contractsintheweek
ending4Octoberbyreducingtheirgrossshortpositionsbymorethan16%inSeptemberinresponseto
thedeclineinWTIpricesfrom$86.02/bblto$75.67/bbl;theyheld24.35%oftheshortand15.44%of
thelongcontractsinCMEWTIfuturesonlycontracts.Swapdealers,whoaccountedfor33%and32.1%
of the open interest on the long side and short side, respectively, increased their net long position by
92.4%from6848to13176contractsfrom6Septemberto4October2011.
However,producerstradingactivityintheLondonWTIcontractshowedanoppositepatternfromCME
WTIcontracts.ProducersincreasedtheirnetshortpositionsinLondonICEWTIcontractsby170%from
10495to28313contractsoverthesameperiod.Swapdealers,ontheotherhand,switchedtoholda
netlongpositionintheweekending4October.Thougharelativelysmallnumberofcontracts(2489),it
wasthefirsttimesince15March2011thatswapdealersbetinfavourofrisingWTIcrudeoilprices.
NYMEX RBOB futures and combined open interest increased by more than 2.5% in September. Open
interestinNYMEXheatingoilincreasedby5.3%to329440contractswhileopeninterestinnaturalgas
marketsdeclinedby4.0%to938710contracts.
IndexinvestorsreducedtheirlongexposureincommoditiesinAugust2011.Theywithdrew$6.3billion
fromWTILightSweetCrudeOil,bothonandofffuturescontracts,inAugusttoaneightmonthlowof
657000contracts,equivalentto$58.8billioninnotionalvalue.
Positions on NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Futures Contracts

Thousand Contracts
04 October 2011
Producers' Positions
Swap Dealers' Positions
Money Managers' Positions
Others' Positions
Non-Reportable Positions
Open Interest
Source: CFTC
Long
Short
221.0
223.7
211.4
104.2
68.1
348.6
210.5
85.3
122.1
61.8
Net
Long/Short
-127.6
13.2
126.1
-17.9
6.2
1431.8
Short
Long
Long
Short
Long
Net from Prev.
Net Vs Last
Week
Month
18.9
5.7
-15.4
-14.1
4.9
51.2
54.1
6.3
-28.0
-28.9
-3.4
-92.1
Market Regulation
Before missing the congressionally mandated deadline for implementing rules that will govern OTC
derivatives markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an order on 14July to
clarify the effective date of the provisions in the swap regulatory regime that would have gone into
effect on 16July2011 established by DoddFrank Act. The CFTC argued that The order provides
temporary relief from certain provisions that will become effective as of 16 July 2011, until the CFTC
completestherulemakingsspecifiedintheorder.TheCFTCsactionwillavoiddisruptioninthemarkets,
and will provide for the orderly implementation of the new comprehensive swap regulatory regime
mandated by Congress. This order is temporary, and expires upon the effective date of final rules or
31December 2011. However, the CFTC later indicated that they may need to extend certain
exemptions beyond the December deadline as it became clear that they cannot complete final rules
beforethen.
12 O CTOBER 2011
41
P RICES
Todate,theCFTChasissued15finalrulesrangingfromlargetraderreporting,antimanipulationrules,
definition and regulation of agricultural swaps, process for review of swaps for mandatory clearing,
process for rule submissions by registered entities, whistleblower incentives and protection, and
consumer protection to the registration of swap data repositories. Most of the rules become effective
within two months after the publication of the final rules. However, the CFTC issued a letter on
16Septembergrantingtemporaryrelieffromdailylargetrader reportingrequirements,which were to
take effect on 20 September. The decree provides voluntary relief from reporting requirements to
derivatives clearing organisations and clearing members until 21 November for cleared swaps and
20January2012forunclearedswaps.
TheCFTChasyettoprovideitsfinalruleonthemostcontentiousissues,suchasthedefinitionofswap
dealers and major swap participants, clearinghouses, swap execution facilities as well as position limit
rules.TheCFTC,afterdelayingconsiderationinSeptember,cancelledthe4Octobermeetingtodiscuss
positionlimitrules.Atthetimeofwriting,thepositionlimitrulewasbeingscheduledforconsideration
atthe18Octobermeeting.
Thedelayin finalizingtheruleonpositionlimitsmightsuggest thattheCFTClacksthethreevotesfor

approval,orthattheCFTCistakingmoretimetoproperlyanalysethecostsandbenefitsofthesocalled
positionlimitrule.
Inthemeantime,unlessthereisnolastminutechange,theEuropeanCommissionisexpectedtorelease
itsamendmenttoMarketsinFinancialInstrumentsDirective(MiFID)inmidOctober.Itisexpectedthat
thefinaldraftwouldalignEuropeanregulationwiththeproposedregulatoryregimeintheUS.
Commodities: No Longer an Asset Class in their Own Right?

Investors, seeking to diversify their portfolio and hedge against rising inflation, have increased their
exposure to commodities by directly purchasing commodities, by taking outright positions in commodity
futures,orbyacquiringstakesinexchangetradedcommodityfunds(ETFs)andincommodityindexfunds.
This pattern has accelerated in recent years. According
$bn
Institutional and retail commodity
to index investment data collected by Barclays Capital
asset under management (AUM)
for US and nonUS assets under management, 500
commodity index investment has increased from 400 Source: Barclays Capital
$55billioninlate2004to$431billioninJuly2011.
300
Theinitialsurgeininvestmentincommoditiesisdueto
the observed negative correlation between commodity
returns and the other asset returns as well as positive
correlationbetweeninflationandcommodityreturns.
200
100
0
Jul 07
Jul 08
Jul 09
Jul 10
Jul 11
Although the positive correlation between inflation and

Medium term notes
Exchange traded products
commodity returns (0.55 for the last twenty years and
Commodity index swaps
0.73 for the last three years in monthly inflation and
commodityreturnsproxiedbyreturnsonS&PGoldmanSachscommoditytotalreturnindex)isstillpresent,
the recent positive correlation between commodities and the other asset classes raise the question of
whethercommoditiescanstillbeconsideredasanassetclassintheirownright,andparticularlyarouteto
portfoliodiversification.
Acommonlyusedapproachistoconsideraninvestmentasaseparateassetclasswhen:
Itsexpectedreturnsarehigherthanriskfreereturns;
Itsreturnsperformdifferentlyfromotherassetclassesinanygivenmarketenvironment;and
Itsreturnsmaynotbereplicatedwithalinearcombinationofotherassetclasses.
42
12 O CTOBER 2011
P RICES
Commodities: No Longer an Asset Class in their Own Right?
(continued)
UpuntilLehmanBrothersdemiseinSeptember2008,commoditiesmetallthreecriteria.However,since
then, commodities have not displayed the last two characteristics of an asset class. Of course, there are
episodes in history when commodities moved in sync with other assets, especially equities. Nevertheless,
comparedtootherepisodesinthelasttwodecades,
Weekly Returns on Different Assest
thelastthreeyearshaveseendifferentdynamicsin
Sep 2008-Sep 2011 Sep 1991- Sep 2008
theirdegreeandduration.
0.014
WTI Crude Oil
0.217
0.073
Between September 1991 and September 2008, Treasury Bill
0.061
0.107
weeklyreturnsoncommoditiesproxiedbyGoldman Treasury Bond
-0.246
0.151
Sachs commodity index were very close to equity GSCI
-0.359
0.213
returns and exceeded bond returns and riskfree GSCI Energy
0.002
0.157
Treasurybill returns. They displayed negative S&P 500
correlation with stocks (0.008) and bonds (0.008)
(as shown in the upper triangle of the correlation table). However, since September 2008, commodity
returnsregisterednegativereturnsaswellasstatisticallysignificantpositivecorrelationwithequities(0.689)
andbonds(0.022)(asshowninthelowertriangleofcorrelationtable)returns.
0.003
Weekly Returns Correlations (1991-2008: Upper Triangle; 2008-2011: Lower Triangle)

WTI Crude Oil Treasury Bill Treasury Bond
1.000
-0.027
-0.109
0.883
1.000
0.650 -0.013
-0.007
Treasury Bond
0.063
0.017
0.312
1.000 -0.008
-0.005
0.053
GSCI
0.877
-0.180
0.022
1.000
0.965
-0.008
GSCI Energy
0.891
-0.148
0.054
0.987
1.000
-0.013
S&P 500
0.522
-0.221
0.015
0.689
0.653
Treasury Bill
-0.027
GSCI GSCI Energy S&P 500

0.840
WTI Crude Oil
-0.020
1.000
Furthermore, if we regress the weekly GSCI return on weekly stock returns for the two subperiods
considered above, then these regression analyses suggest that the variation in commodity returns is
independent of either stock or bond returns between September 1991 and September 2008 but not
afterwards. Specifically, the regression results after Lehmans demise suggest that more than 47% of the
variation in commodity returns can be explained by variation in stock returns. The statistically significant
coefficient on stock returns suggests that a 1% increase in stocks returns leads to 0.85% increase in
commodityreturns.Additionally,whenweregressweeklyGSCIenergyreturnsonstockreturns,wefinda
statisticallyhighercoefficientonstockreturns,revealingthata1%increaseinstocksreturnsleadstoa1%
increaseinenergycommodityreturns.ThesefindingssuggestthatpostLehmancommodityreturnsmight
bereplicatedbyreturnsonstocks.Inthissense,onemayconcludethatcommoditiesinthelastthreeyears
donotappeartofulfilthethreecriteriatobeconsideredasaseparateassetclassintheirownright.
Aswearguedearlier,therecentepisodeofhighcorrelationbetweendifferentassetsmaynotbeunique,
and it is unclear whether the change observed between asset classes movement, or more specifically
commodity prices, are permanent. Several recent academic studies suggest that the financialisation of
commoditymarketshasincreasedthecomovementsbetweenequitiesandcommodities.Ifthesestudies
findingsareanyguide,wemaywellexpectthatcomovementsbetweencommoditiesandequitiesarehere
tostayaslongasinvestorsappetiteforcommoditiesstaystrong.
Spot Crude Oil Prices

Immediate global economic concerns and emerging expectations of weaker supply and demand
fundamentals are having an immediate impact on spot crude markets. In September, prices trended
lowerbutstillfoundsomesupportfrommorerobustdemandinEuropeandAsia,especiallyforMiddle
Eastgrades,asscheduledrefineryturnaroundscompleteoverthenextfourtosixweeks.
In addition, the upcoming peak winter demand period underpins record premiums for distillate rich
crudessuchasRussianESPOandtheUAEsbenchmarkMurbancrude.Initialexpectationsthatafireat
12 O CTOBER 2011
43
P RICES
Shells 500kb/d Singapore refinery would undermine crude markets proved fleeting, especially after
SaudiArabiaraisedNovemberpricesforArabLighttorecordlevelsforAsiancustomers.Iran,Kuwaitand
Iraq followed the Saudis lead and also raised prices for Asian customers for November. As usual
however,interpretingformulapricechangesaseitheranattempttorationdemandontheonehand,or
merelyanacknowledgementthatsupplieswillbeloweredontheother,isdifficulttocall.
$/bbl
130
Benchmark Crude Prices
$/bbl
WTI vs Dated Brent Differential
120
110
-5
-10
100
-15
90
-20
80
-25
Data source: Platts analysis
-30
70
Sep 10
Dec 10
WTI Cushing
Mar 11
Jun 11
Dated Brent
Sep 11
Dubai
-35
Sep 10
Dec 10
Mar 11
Jun 11
Sep 11
Spot crude oil prices for benchmark Brent and other European, African and Middle East crudes on
average rose by around $1.25/bbl to over $3/bbl in September while isolated WTI posted a modest
decline for the month. However, prices tumbled in line with the overall marketwide rout, with spot
pricesdownby$812/bblbetweenearlySeptemberandthefirstweekofOctober.
WTIdeclinedonaverageby$0.75/bbl,to$85.55/bbl,inSeptemberbutbyearlyOctoberhadplummeted
to oneyear lows above $75/bbl. Prices have since recovered from their 4 October lows, with WTI last
tradingaround$85.65/bbl.WTIsdiscounttoDatedBrentwidenedbyaround$3.50/bblinSeptember,to
$27.57/bbl,largelyoncontinuedpricestrengthfortheNorthSeagrade.
Dated Brent prices posted a monthly increase of $2.75/bbl, to around $113/bbl, in September,
supported by continued North Sea supply disruptions. North Sea outages are estimated at a steep
500kb/din3Q11andareseenonlyeasingin4Q11,to170kb/d.Underscoringtherelativestrengthof
theNorthSeamarket,BrentM1M2backwardationhaswidenedtoaround$2.20/bblinSeptemberfrom
just$0.45/bblinAugust.
$/bbl
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Light Sweet Mediterranean Crude

Differentials to Dated Brent
Jan 11
Apr 11
Jul 11
Oct 11
Azeri Light - Dated Brent
Saharan Blend - Dated Brent
$/bbl
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan 11
Sweet-Sour Differentials
Mar 11
May 11
DB - Urals Med
Jul 11
Sep 11
Tapis - Dubai
Although the persistent delays to the North Sea loading programmes have contributed to stronger
Europeanmarkets,thelackofLibyansuppliesalsocontinuedtobeamajorsupport.Libyanofficialshave
movedquicklytorestoreoutputsincethefallofTripoliinearlySeptember,butsofartherehavebeen
limited crude exports, with a large portion of the output being used to replenish storage tanks at
refineries(seeLibyaFlexesitsProductionMuscle).
44
12 O CTOBER 2011
P RICES
Thatsaid,theprospectofincreasedsuppliesofLibyancrudehavealreadypressuredsweetsourspreads
intheMediterranean.ThepremiumofAzeriLight,whichhasbeenamainreplacementcrudeforshutin
Libyansupplies,overDatedBrentnarrowedto$2.40/bblinSeptembercomparedwitharound$4/bblin
August.The SaharanDatedBrentspread,withtheformertypicallytradingatapremium,wasabout
flatatanaverage$0.01/bblinSeptembercomparedwitha$1.12/bblpremiuminAugust.
InAsia,DubaisdiscounttoDatedBrentwidenedtoanaverage$6.82/bblinSeptembercomparedwith
$5.35/bbl in August, largely due to the latters relative market strength on supply disruptions. The
premium for light, sweet Malaysian Tapis over Dubai widened in September to around $13.40/bbl, up
almost $2/bbl above August levels. Asian demand for regional grades has increased as refiners shun
someAfricanbarrelslinkedtopricierBrentcrude.
Spot Crude Oil Prices and Differentials
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: http://www.iea.org/w/omrss/default.aspx
Spot Product Prices

Refinedproductmarkets registereda downturnin crackspreadsonaverageinSeptemberinall major
regions,butoveralldifferentialsremainedfairlyrobust,especiallyformiddledistillates.Theendofthe
summerdrivingseason,coupledwithhigherthroughputratesasrefineriesreturnedfrommaintenance,
saw gasoline crack spreads ease in the Atlantic basin. Middle distillate crack spreads were marginally
weakerbeforethestartofthewinterheatingseason.Fueloildiscountswidenedduetoincreasingcrude
pricesearlyinthemonth,althoughstrongbunkerfueldemandinSingaporeprovidedsupport.Generally,
productcrackspreadsimprovedinthesecondhalfofthemonthwithweakercrudepricesandthefireat
the500kb/dPulauBukomrefineryinSingaporeprovidingsupportatmonthendandinearlyOctober.
$/bbl
Gasoline
Cracks to Benchmark Crude s
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11
NWE Unl 10ppm
Med Unl 10ppm
12 O CTOBER 2011
$/bbl
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Jul 11
Sep 11
USGC
SP
Gasoil/Heating Oil
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

NWE Gasoil 0.1%
Med Gasoil 0.1%
Jul 11
Sep 11
NYH No. 2
SP Gasoil 0.5%
45
P RICES
Spot Product Prices
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: http://www.iea.org/w/omrss/default.aspx
USgasolinecrackspreadspostedthelargestdeclineontheUSGulfCoast,downasteep$9.20/bblfor
Mars in September from the high levels seen in August. Prices edged lower in response to continuous
lowdemandreadingsattheendofaweaksummerdrivingseasonandwithrenewedfearsofrecession.
In addition, the shift to winter grade gasoline in New York Harbour, and increasing stock levels as
refineriesontheUSEastCoastcamebackonstreamafterHurricaneIrene,addeddownwardpressure
onmarkets.
$/bbl
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Diesel Fuel
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30

NWE ULSD 10ppm
Med ULSD 10ppm
$/bbl
Jul 11
Sep 11
NYH No. 2
NYH ULSD
High-Sulphur Fuel Oil


NWE HSFO 3.5%
SP HSFO 380 4%
Jul 11
Sep 11
Med HSFO 3.5%
ThedepressedUSmarketalsounderminedEuropeangasolinepricesasarbitrageopportunitiestotheUS
dissipated.Europeangasolinemarkets,however,weresupportedbystrongerdemandfromWestAfrica
and belownormal stock levels. Weaker market fundamentals coupled with higher crude prices were
behind the decline in gasoline crack spreads, off by around $3.80/bbl for Dated Brent in Northwest
Europe and by $3.90/bbl for Urals in the Mediterranean. In Asia, gasoline crack spreads increased
46
12 O CTOBER 2011
P RICES
monthonmonth.
Asian markets have been tighter in general over the last few months due to regional refining
maintenance,butmarketssoftenedmidmonthasplantscamebackonstream.However,theclosureof
the500kb/dPulauBukomrefineryinSingaporeafterafiretriggeredajumpinpricesatendSeptember.
Middledistillatecrackspreadsfellmonthonmonthinallregionsasdemandwasstillsomewhatmuted
atthestartofthewinterheatingseason.However,therewereseveralfactorsproppingupthemarket
throughoutSeptember.LowersuppliesfromRussiasupportedEuropeanmarkets,whereasUSmarkets
werestilltakingadvantageofstrongdemandfromLatinAmerica.Fueloilcrackspreadswidenedmonth
onmonth in all regions in September but the decline masks a steady improvement throughout the
month. Although the peak summer demand season for fuel oil at power plants is over, Asian markets
weresupportedbyhighbunkerfueldemandandlowerexportsfromIran.InEurope,supportcamefrom
arbitragevolumesgoingtoAsiaanddiminishedfueloilexportsfromRussia.
Refining Margins
RefiningmarginsdecreasedmonthonmonthinSeptember,fallingsteeplyfromhigherAugustreadings
towards midmonth as product crack spreads narrowed, in particular for gasoline. However, margins
improved again towards monthend as product crack spreads increased. This was due to both weaker
crude prices and tightening product markets with the fire at the major Pulau Bukom refinery in
Singapore.USrefiningmarginsdecreasedthemostonaverage,withmarginsontheGulfCoastandKern
marginsontheWestCoastfallingmonthonmonthby$4.60$6.75/bbland$9$13.80/bbl,respectively.
$/bbl
$/bbl
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
USGC Margins
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Mar
Apr May
Jun
Maya Coking
Mars Coking
Brent Cracking
Jul
Aug Sep Oct

LLS Cracking
Mars Cracking
Mar
NWE Refining Margins
Apr May
Jun
Brent Cracking
Urals Cracking
Jul
Aug Sep Oct

Brent H'skimming
Urals H'skimming
USGulfCoastrefiningmarginsweredrivenlowerbynarrowergasolinecrackspreadscomparedtothe
high levels seen in August, with the end of the summer driving season and increasing stock levels as
refineries increased production. Only Maya coking margins managed to stay in positive territory on
average for September due to Maya crudes favourable pricing. Further pressure came from narrower
middle distillates crack spreads, as markets were quiet before the winter heating season. However,
marginsimprovedtowardsmonthendwithbothLLScrackingandMarscokingmarginsbackinpositive
territoryasproductmarketstightenedandcrudepricesweakened.USWestCoastmarginssufferedfrom
weakgasolinecracksaswell,butinaddition,awideningfueloilcrackadverselyaffectedmargins.
EuropeanrefiningmarginsweredepressedbyweakeninggasolinecrackspreadsinSeptember,butalsoa
widening fuel oil discount contributed, pressuring margins at simple refineries in particular. Towards
monthend, crackspreads improvedbothduetoweakercrudepricesandthefireatthePulauBukom
refinery.Inaddition,UralsweakenedrelativetoBrentgivingextrasupporttoUralsmargins.
InAsia,Singaporerefiningmarginsfelleventhoughproductcracksimprovedtowardsmonthenddueto
12 O CTOBER 2011
47
P RICES
the fire at the Singapore refinery. Tapis margins showed an average calculated loss in September of
$10.60/bbl at a simple refinery, a level corresponding to the lows from April and May this year. Weak
fueloilproductcracksatthebeginningofthemonthdepressedmarginsasdidrelativelystrongerTapis
crude.InChina,Daqingmarginsimprovedslightlymonthonmonthontheincreasedcrackspreadsfor
lightandmiddledistillatestowardsmonthend.
Selected Refining Margins in Major Refining Centres
($/bbl)
Monthly Average
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
0.78
1.65
2.53
2.93
-0.38
1.66
Change
Sep 11-Aug 11
Average for week ending:

09 Sep
16 Sep
23 Sep
30 Sep
07 Oct
Brent (Hydroskimming)
-2.62
-0.98
-3.81
Urals (Hydroskimming)
-5.35
-3.79
-4.76
Mediterranean
Es Sider (Cracking)
Urals (Cracking)
Es Sider (Hydroskimming)
Urals (Hydroskimming)
1.97
0.84
-3.33
-7.03
2.56
2.06
-3.13
-5.63
0.26
0.11
-5.21
-6.77
-2.30
-1.95
-2.07
-1.13
0.53
0.35
-5.69
-7.37
-1.13
-1.20
-6.50
-7.93
-0.50
-0.74
-5.50
-7.22
1.52
1.53
-3.18
-4.32
0.87
1.58
-3.90
-4.14
US Gulf Coast
Brent (Cracking)
LLS (Cracking)
Mars (Cracking)
Mars (Coking)
Maya (Coking)
-1.86
5.73
1.32
5.99
8.51
-0.90
6.08
0.54
4.25
9.41
-6.62
-0.66
-4.38
-1.72
4.82
-5.72
-6.74
-4.91
-5.97
-4.59
-5.36
-0.23
-5.97
-2.52
6.75
-7.96
-2.27
-5.96
-3.39
3.44
-8.87
-2.70
-4.38
-2.58
2.84
-5.37
0.95
-1.91
0.35
4.60
-2.30
1.73
-0.87
1.26
3.90
US West Coast
US West Coast
ANS (Cracking)
Kern (Cracking)
Oman (Cracking)
Kern (Coking)
-2.53
5.57
-1.54
9.11
1.67
10.98
0.51
11.64
-5.05
-2.83
-0.76
2.35
-6.72
-13.81
-1.27
-9.29
-2.27
2.38
1.31
7.62
-8.61
-6.43
-1.22
-0.78
-7.25
-7.04
-4.12
-2.22
-4.98
-3.70
-0.73
1.27
0.46
-0.45
3.93
4.90
Singapore
Singapore
Dubai (Hydroskimming)
Tapis (Hydroskimming)
Dubai (Hydrocracking)
Tapis (Hydrocracking)
-1.17
-6.92
1.68
-6.70
0.37
-6.83
2.86
-6.30
-1.05
-10.59
1.49
-9.79
-1.42
-3.76
-1.37
-3.50
-1.17
-10.52
1.71
-9.40
-1.31
-11.92
1.25
-11.04
-1.58
-11.00
0.75
-10.41
-0.23
-9.23
1.88
-8.87
1.89
-7.23
4.12
-6.73
China
China
Cabinda (Hydroskimming)
Daqing (Hydroskimming)
Dubai (Hydroskimming)
Daqing (Hydrocracking)
Dubai (Hydrocracking)
-2.75
-1.99
-1.29
-0.27
1.75
-1.77
-2.74
0.29
-0.22
3.03
-3.56
-1.53
-1.14
1.52
1.64
-1.80
1.22
-1.43
1.74
-1.39
-4.51
-2.30
-1.24
1.31
1.88
-4.78
-1.31
-1.39
1.83
1.42
-2.96
-1.21
-1.69
1.48
0.86
-1.58
0.10
-0.30
2.38
2.03
-1.11
-0.05
1.84
2.63
4.30
NW Europe
Brent (Cracking)
Urals (Cracking)
-2.91
-1.28
0.52
1.76
-1.88
-0.10
-1.27
1.05
0.49
3.61
1.73
3.59
-2.83
-3.68
-5.26
-4.26
-2.25
-1.18
-0.97
-5.68
-6.52
-4.81
-1.84
-1.81
For the purposes of this report, refining margins are calculated for various complexity configurations, each optimised for processing the specific crude in a specific refining centre on a 'fullcost' basis. Consequently, reported margins should be taken as an indication, or proxy, of changes in profitability for a given refining centre. No attempt is made to model or otherwise
comment upon the relative economics of specific refineries running individual crude slates and producing custom product sales, nor are these calculations intended to infer the marginal
values of crudes for pricing purposes.
*The China refinery margin calculation represents a model based on spot product import/export parity, and does not reflect internal pricing regulations.
Sources: IEA, Purvin & Gertz Inc.
Review and Updates of US Refining Margin Model

Thismonth,Purvin&GertzhasmadeseveralchangestotherefiningmarginmodelaffectingtheUSmargin
calculations.Theupdatedversiontakesintoaccountthebenzenereductionprogrammeforgasoline,which
affectstheyieldsatUSrefineries.Forupdateddetailsonyields,pleasevisittheusersguideatourwebsite
www.oilmarketreport.org.Furthermore,theBonnylightrefiningmargincalculationshavebeendiscontinued
as the Bonny crude assay has changed radically and political disruptions in Nigeria are affecting the
productionofanumberofstreams.WeareconsideringreplacingtheBonnycalculationwithanotherviable
offshoresweetcrudeinthenearfuture.
USGC Refining Margin Model Changes:
In February 2007, the EPA finalised rulemaking activities intended to reduce emissions of hazardous air
pollutants from motor vehicles. The regulations require more stringent control of hydrocarbon exhaust
emissions at low temperatures, reduced evaporative emissions from portable fuel containers, and lower
benzenecontentingasoline.
48
12 O CTOBER 2011
P RICES
Review and Updates of US Refining Margin Model
(continued)
The gasoline benzene controls require that refiners and importers meet an annual average maximum
benzenecontentof0.62%(volume)onallgasoline(bothconventionalandreformulated).Californiagasoline
isexcludedfromtheprogramme.Anationwidecreditbankingandtradingsystemhasbeenestablished,but
nosupplierwillbeallowedtoexceedamaximumphysicalaverageof1.3%.Thetechnologiesgenerallyused
to reduce benzene include prefractionation of reformer feed to eliminate benzene precursors,
isomerisationoflightnaphthastosaturatebenzene,extractionofbenzenefromreformate,andsaturation
ofbenzeneinstreamssuchasFCCnaphtha.
Thenewbenzenerestrictioncameintoeffecton1January2011.Atthattime,thetoxicemissionscontrol
programmesapplyingtobothRFGandconventionalgasolinewerereplacedbythenewbenzenecontrols.
ThePurvin&GertzUSGCMarginModelshavebeenupdatedtoincludetheresultantyieldvectorchanges
forthenewrestrictionsbeginning,retroactively,withtheJanuary2011calculations.
West Coast Refining Margin Model Changes:
TheyieldsfortheUSWestCoastrefineryyieldsethavebeenupdatedtoprovidebetterharmonisationwith
the US Gulf Coast refinery yield set. Specifically, the use of distillate hydrocracking capacity in the coking
refineryyieldsethasbeenremovedandboththeWestCoastcrackingandcokingyieldsetsnowsharethe
samebasicprocesstechnologiesastheirUSGulfCoastcounterparts.
Both the cracking and coking configurations feature full hydrotreatment of FCC unit feed. Incremental
gasolinesulphurcontrolisachievedthroughFCCgasolinetreatment,whileincrementalbenzenecontrolis
accomplished through C5/C6 isomerisation. A specialised high pressure hydrotreater is used to treat FCC
light cycle oil and coker diesel to improve the refinery cetane balance in light of the more stringent
requirementsthatareassociatedwithCARBdiesel.
The updated West Coast refinery yields were developed through the use of Aspentech PIMS and the
AspentechBlendModelLibrary(ABML).ABMLprovidessophisticatedblendingcorrelationsandallowsfor
rigorousmodellingofCARBgasolinespecificationsforeachperiod.Inaddition,othermodelimprovements
in the areas of variable and fixed cost estimation were also applied. These updates are being applied
retroactively,reindexingthehistoricalWestCoastmargins.1
1
SubscriberswillbeabletoaccessupdatedhistoricalrefiningmarginsontheOMRwebsiteshortly.
End-User Product Prices in September

AverageIEAenduserpricesinUSdollars(extax)fellbyaslim2.25%inSeptember.Onthisbasis,price
drops were reported across all surveyed products and countries, bar Germany, which reported a
marginalincreaseingasoline(0.40%).Pricesdecreased
End-User Product Prices
the most in Spain, with notable falls in LSFO (5.40%)
Monthly Changes in USD, ex-tax
6%
and heating oil (3.80%). In Italy, France and Germany
4%
prices fell on average by 2.60%, 1.80% and 1.40%,
2%
respectively. Outside of the Eurozone, UK prices were
-2.21
-2.70
-2.16
-1.93
0%
down by 2.70%, driven by declines in gasoline and
-2%
diesel.InJapan,wherereconstructioneffortscontinued -4%
during the third quarter, prices dropped by 2.90% led -6%
by gasoline and diesel. Meanwhile, in North America,
Gasoline
Diesel
Heat.Oil
LSFO
where the summer driving season finished in
France
Germany
Italy
September, prices decreased in Canada and the US by
Spain
Japan
Canada
United States
United Kingdom
Average
1.20%and0.70%,respectively.
Yearonyear price hikes for surveyed countries range between 30% and 40%, with the US and the UK
showing the largest increases. Across products, the yearly increments rank higher for LSFO (37%) and
gasoline(35%),followedcloselybyheatingoilanddieselbyanaverageof34%.
12 O CTOBER 2011
49
P RICES
Freight
ThebenchmarkVLCCMiddleEastGulfJapanraterecededfurtherinSeptemberfollowingreportsofa
fallincargoesleavingtheGulfcoupledwitharetreatinbunkeringcosts,whichhadpreviouslyhelpedto
buttress rates. With the Eastern VLCC market awash with vessels, even Typhoon Roke, which briefly
closedanumberofJapaneseports,providednorespite.ByearlyOctoberthetradewasata2011lowof
$9.30/mt, pushing time charter equivalent earnings firmly into negative territory at a reported
$3000/daybeforetakingintoaccountslowsteaming.
US$/m t
28
Daily Crude Tanker Rates
US$/m t
35
24
30
20
25
16
20
12
15
10
Daily Product Tanker Rates
4
0
Jan 10
Data so urce: P latts analysis
Jul 10
8 0 k t N S e a - N W E ur
V LC C M E G ulf - J a p
Jan 11
Jul 11
13 0 k t W A f r- US A C
0
Jan 10
Data so urce: P latts analysis
Jul 10
3 0 K C a rib - US A C
75K M EG-Jap
Jan 11
Jul 11
2 5 K UKC - US A C
3 0 K S E A s ia - J a p
However,despitethisgrimsituationthereisstillnoappetiteforvesseldemolitionamongstowners.In
the Suezmax market the situation was slightly better with the benchmark West Africa US Gulf Coast
trade experiencing a midmonth climb on the back of a shortage of available tonnage for October
delivery.Atwriting,theratestoodatover$15/mt,itshighestlevelsincemidMay.
Cleanproducttankerratesweremixedoverthemonth.ThetransatlanticUKUSAtlanticCoasttrade
hasbeenvolatileformuchof2011andagainsurgedtoalatemonthhighofover$24/mtonthebackof
tight fundamentals. This was once more shortlived since vessels quickly repositioned themselves
thereby forcing rates down to below $20/mt by earlyOctober as fundamentals softened. Rates in the
East have remained relatively stable and buoyant over the past few months as Japanese imports of
products,notablygasoline,haveincreasedinthewakeofpostearthquakerefineryshutdowns.
Global crude floating storage

Oilinshorttermfloatingstoragefellby4.9mbtostand m b
(short-term and semi-permanent)
at 43.4 mb at endSeptember. Crude fell by 4.4mb to 175
So urce: EA Gibso n, SSY and
IEA estimates
155
33.2mbasdrawsintheUSGulf(4.4mb)andNorthwest
Europe(2.1mb)offsetasurprise2.1mbbuildinIranian 135
storage. Products fell by 0.5 mb to 10.2mb resulting 115
fromadrawoffWestAfricawherevolumesnowamount
95
to 6.6 mb. This region still holds the largest share of
75
global product floating storage. Following the discharge
55
of two VLCCs and one LR1, the fleet now numbers
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
R a nge 2 0 0 6 - 10
2 0 10
29vessels with 15 of these being VLCCs, a new
2 0 11
A v e ra ge 2 0 0 6 - 10
historicallow.
50
12 O CTOBER 2011
R EFINING
REFINING
Summary
Global crude runs estimates for 3Q11 and 4Q11 have been revised down by 50kb/d and 75kb/d
respectively since last months report. Stronger US runs only partly offset lowerthanexpected
throughputsinAsia.Globalthroughputsnowaverage75.5mb/din3Q11and75.3mb/din4Q11.
OECD crude throughputs rose 460 kb/d in August, to 37.62 mb/d, or 150 kb/d less than a year
earlier. While runs rose in all regions, the largest gains came from the Pacific, in line with seasonal
trends. OECD estimates have been lifted by 75 kb/d and 60 kb/d, to 37.1 mb/d and 36.3 mb/d, for
3Q11 and 4Q11 respectively, as strongerthanexpected US data were only partly offset by lower
Pacificreadings.
JulyOECDgasolineyieldsfellinallregionsbutwereoffsetbyhighernaphtha,jetfuel/keroseneand
other products, while gasoil/diesel and residual fuel oil yields were unchanged overall from June.
OECDgrossoutputincreased760kb/dfromJune,butwasstillalmost600kb/dbelowayearearlier,
mainlyonlowerOECDEuropeanoutput.
Refinery consolidation continues in the OECD, with operators in all regions concluding or
announcing extended shutdowns or refinery sales in September. The recent plant rationalisations
involve ConocoPhillips and Sunoco in the US, Eni and LyondellBasel in Europe and Showa Shell in
Japan,withtotalcapacityamountingtonearly1mb/d.
Global Refining
mb/d
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
Jan
mb/d
Crude Throughput
3.0
Global Crude Throughputs

Annual Change
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 (est.)
1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11

North America Europe
Pacific
China
Other Asia
Middle East
Latin America Other
Global Refinery Throughput

Globalrefinerycruderunsareseenaveraging75.5mb/din3Q11,decliningmarginallyto75.3mb/din
4Q11.Whiletheglobalfiguresarewithin0.1mb/dofthoseinlastmonthsreport,offsettingchangesin
theOECDandthenonOECDaremaskedbythetotal.OECDestimateshavebeenraisedby75kb/dand
60kb/dfor3Q11and4Q11respectively,largelyonhigherUSruns.ThelatestreadingsfromtheOECD
PacificoffsetpartoftherecentstrengthintheUS,however.InthenonOECD,Chinarecordeditssecond
weakest refinery runs this year in August. Maintenance plans and scheduled operating rates at key
refineries show relatively weak throughputs also over September and October, before new capacity is
commissioned, potentially raising runs at the tailend of this year. Asian refinery runs were further
curtailedbyanotherlargescalerefineryoutageinlateSeptember.Thefireandsubsequentshutdownof
Shells500kb/dPulauBukomrefineryinSingaporecouldsignificantlytightenregionalproductmarketsif
afullrestartisnotimminent.Whiletherefineryannouncedapartialrestarton10October,toaround
100kb/d,marketsourcessayitwilltaketimefortheplanttoreturntofulloperatingrates.
12O CTOBER 2011
51
R EFINING
Inthe OECD,refineryconsolidationcontinuedapace,withrefineriesaccountingforcloseto1mb/dof
primary distillation capacity completing or announcing extended shutdowns or refinery sales in
September.Refinerymarginsdeterioratedfurtherlastmonth,andwereonaveragenegativefor18out
ofthe26configurationssurveyed.IntheUS,ConocoPhillipsannouncedatendSeptemberithadidledits
TrainerrefineryontheEastCoastandwouldpermanentlyshutitifnobuyerisfoundwithinsixmonths.
The announcement comes only weeks after Sunoco said it would also sell or shut its two East Coast
plants. In Europe, Eni idled its Venice refinery on poor margins, while LyondellBasel announced the
French Berre lEtang refinery will close permanently. Finally, in Japan, Showa Shell completed the
shutdownoftheOghimachifactory,inlinewithpreviouslyannouncedplans.
Global Refinery Crude Throughput1
Jun 11
2Q2011
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
3Q2011
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
4Q2011
Jan 12
North America
18.0
17.5
18.4
18.5
18.0
18.3
17.4
17.6
17.4
17.5
17.2
Europe
12.2
11.9
12.4
12.6
12.2
12.4
12.0
12.2
12.3
12.2
12.3
Pacific
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.3
6.4
6.3
6.8
7.1
6.7
7.0
36.5
35.7
37.2
37.6
36.5
37.1
35.6
36.6
36.8
36.3
36.5
FSU
6.8
6.5
6.7
6.6
6.3
6.6
6.2
6.5
6.7
6.5
6.7
Non-OECD Europe
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
China
8.7
8.9
8.8
8.7
8.8
8.8
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.3
9.3
Other Asia
9.3
8.9
9.2
8.7
8.9
8.9
8.8
9.1
9.3
9.1
9.6
Latin America
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.2
Middle East
6.1
5.8
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
5.9
6.1
5.9
Africa
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.3
Total Non-OECD
38.8
38.1
39.0
38.1
38.2
38.4
38.3
39.3
39.5
39.0
39.5
Total
75.3
73.8
76.2
75.7
74.7
75.5
73.9
75.9
76.3
75.3
76.0
Total OECD
1 Preliminary and estimated runs based on capacity, know n outages, economic run cuts and global demand forecast
OECD Refinery Throughputs

OECDcrudeintakeroseby460kb/dinAugust,to37.6mb/donaverage,followinggainsinallregions.
Japanrecordedthestrongestincrease,inlinewithseasonalpatterns.Whiletotalthroughputsremained
belowyearearlierlevelsforthesixthconsecutivemonth,thedeficitnarrowedtoonly150kb/dinthe
latestreadings(comparedtoanaverageof0.8mb/doverthepreviousfivemonths).TheAugustdata
were 90kb/d less than our previous forecast, with lowerthanexpected Pacific runs offset by higher
readingsforNorthAmerica.Europeanrunsweremostlyinlinewithexpectations.Thesubmissionoffinal
monthlyJulydataledtoanupwardrevisionof125kb/dforthemonth,followingstrongerUSdata.
mb/d
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
Jan
52
OECD Total
mb/d
Crude Throughput
2.0
OECD Demand vs. Crude Runs

Annual Change
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
-3.0
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 (est.)
1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11

Crude Runs
Oil Product Demand
12O CTOBER 2011
R EFINING
Asaresult,3Q11OECDthroughputshavebeenrevisedhigherby75kb/d.Wehavefurthermorelifted
theoutlookfortheUSfortheremainderoftheyear,leadingtoanupwardrevisionof60kb/dforthe
OECD as a whole for 4Q11. The start of seasonalmaintenance in all regions, as well asa recent sharp
deteriorationofUSrefiningmargins,bothontheGulfCoastandWestCoast,arenonethelesssettosee
OECDrunsdeclineby750kb/din4Q11,comparedtothepreviousquarter.
Refinery Crude Throughput and Utilisation in OECD Countries

Change from
Utilisation rate1
Aug 11
Jul 11
15.62
15.65
0.03
0.54
89.1%
86.3%
1.54
1.61
1.58
-0.03
-0.29
86.0%
95.4%
1.14
1.16
1.24
0.08
0.09
80.2%
74.6%
17.46
18.05
18.39
18.46
0.07
0.33
88.2%
86.3%
1.18
1.33
1.35
1.34
1.37
0.03
-0.13
83.4%
82.1%
1.85
1.84
1.78
2.02
2.02
0.00
-0.03
84.3%
85.4%
1.54
1.52
1.56
1.62
1.55
1.66
0.11
-0.03
76.1%
74.4%
1.08
0.80
1.00
1.04
1.04
1.05
0.01
-0.03
81.0%
83.5%
Spain
0.96
1.09
1.01
1.06
1.01
1.07
0.06
-0.05
76.0%
79.3%
United Kingdom
1.39
1.51
1.50
1.45
1.50
1.51
0.00
0.06
83.4%
80.2%
Other OECD Europe
3.79
3.65
3.72
3.92
3.93
3.89
-0.04
-0.12
78.8%
81.8%
11.74
11.61
11.95
12.23
12.39
12.56
0.16
-0.33
80.2%
81.1%
Japan
3.15
3.10
2.78
2.93
3.17
3.43
0.26
-0.10
74.6%
74.3%
South Korea
2.52
2.58
2.51
2.52
2.52
2.43
-0.09
-0.03
88.9%
89.9%
Other OECD Pacific
0.78
0.78
0.75
0.77
0.70
0.74
0.04
-0.03
80.8%
84.0%
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
14.45
14.30
14.78
15.37
Canada
1.78
1.57
1.54
Mexico
1.20
1.26
1.15
17.43
17.14
France
1.26
Germany
1.73
Italy
Netherlands
US2
OECD North Am erica
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
OECD Total
Jul 11
Aug 10
Aug 11 Aug 10
6.45
6.46
6.04
6.21
6.38
6.60
0.22
-0.15
80.0%
80.4%
35.62
35.20
35.45
36.49
37.16
37.62
0.46
-0.15
83.9%
83.4%
1 Expressed as a percentage, based o n crude thro ughput and current o perable refining capacity
2 US50
Sincelastmonthsreport,NorthAmericancruderunestimateshavebeenliftedby220kb/dfor3Q11
and 110 kb/d for 4Q11 based on stronger July monthly and September weekly data. Final monthly US
data for July again came in some 175 kb/d above weekly estimates. After five consecutive months of
weeklytomonthly data upgrades, we have introduced an adjustment factor to the weeklies in this
months report. The adjustment factor is the sixmonth rolling average difference between the weekly
andmonthlydata.ForAugustandSeptemberthisamountsto+135kb/dand+170kb/drespectively.
mb/d
mb/d
OECD North America

Crude Throughput
19
OECD North America

Firm Shutdowns
3.0
2.5
18
2.0
17
1.5
16
1.0
0.5
15
Jan
12O CTOBER 2011
Mar
May
Jul
Range 06-10
2010
2011(est.)
0.0
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 06-10
2011 reported
Sep
Nov
Jan
2010
2011 forecast
53
R EFINING
Regionalcruderunsrose70kb/dinAugust,to18.5mb/d,or330kb/daboveayearearlier.Preliminary
weeklydatashowUScruderunstaperingoffinSeptember,fallingsome300kb/dfromamonthearlier,
mostly due to lower Gulf Coast runs. September runs were nevertheless stronger than expected and
seasonalpatterns,inpartsupportedbyhealthyrefiningeconomicsandthelackofanyhurricanerelated
shutdownsontheGulfCoast.ByendSeptemberhowever,refiningmarginsplummetedbothontheGulf
and West Coasts following a sharp deterioration in gasoline cracks (see Refinery Margins in Prices
Section),andthis,combinedwithanuptickinmaintenanceshutdownswillfurtherreducerunsoverthe
balanceoftheyear,albeitrunsareforecasttoremainaboveyearearlierlevels.
m b/d
17
m b/d
US Weekly Refinery Throughput
US PADD 3 Refinery Throughputs
8.5
16
8.0
15
7.5
14
7.0
13
12
6.5
Source: EIA
11
Jan
Source: EIA
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
6.0
Jan
Sep
Nov
5-yr Average
2011
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Range 2006-2010
2010
Nov
5-yr Average
2011
NorthAmericanrefineryturnaroundsforthisautumnareexpectedtobeslightlylighterthannormal.We
estimate around 1.2mb/d of capacity to be offline in October, falling to 0.9 mb/d in November and
slightlylessthan0.5mb/dinDecember.Thiscomparestofiveyearaveragesof1.4mb/d,1.0mb/dand
0.5mb/drespectively.
Record Product Exports Drive High US Runs

USrefineryrunscontinuetobesupportedbystrongoilproductexports.InJuly,thelatestmonthforwhich
detailed monthly trade data is available, total oil exports averaged 2.9 mb/d, a new record and 400kb/d
higherthaninJuly2010.Ofthisfinishedoilproductsaccountedfor85%,withgasolineblendingcomponents
andotherliquidsthebulkoftheremainder.DistillatefuelsareexportedtoEuropeandLatinAmerica,while
gasolineismostlyshippedtoMexicoandotherLatinAmericancountries.InJuly,middledistillateexports
were890kb/d,ofwhichULSDaccountedfor645kb/d.Finishedgasolineexportswere335kb/dinJuly,of
which190kb/dwenttoMexico.Atthesametime,UScrudeimportsaredwindling.Julycrudeoilimports
were only 9.3 mb/d compared to 9.9mb/d in July 2010. Higher domestic production and a reduction in
crudeoilinventories,ratherthanlowerrefineryruns,werebehindthelowercrudeimports.
mb/d
3.0
US Oil Exports
US Oil Imports
15.0
13.0
2.0
11.0
1.0
9.0
0.0
7.0
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Motor Gasoline
Distillate
Other Finished Products Other Oils
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Crude Oil
Other
54
12O CTOBER 2011
R EFINING
ConocoPhillipsannouncedon30Septemberthatithadceasedcrudeprocessingatits185kb/dTrainer
refineryinPennsylvaniaduetopoormargins.TheannouncementfollowsastatementfromSunocoonly
a few weeks earlier (see Another Refiner Bows Out Sunoco Announces Refinery Exit in OMR dated
13September 2011), that it is looking to exit the refining business and sell or close its two East Coast
refineries.AsinthecaseofSunoco,ConocoPhillipsislookingtoselltheplant,orwillshutitifnobuyeris
found within six months. The company cited large investment requirements to meet state regulations
regardingsulphurcontentinheatingoilandfederalTier3sulphurgasolinestandardsasonereasonfor
the decision to exit this market. With now nearly 700kb/d of refining capacity for sale or to be shut
down on the East Coast by mid2012, crude and product trade flows could change significantly in the
nextyear.MorelightsweetcrudefromNigeriaandtheNorthSeawouldbeavailableforothermarkets
(about 300 kb/d of each), while product import requirements could increase dramatically, potentially
reversingthetrendofrisingexportsnotedabove.
Europeancruderunestimatesarelargelyunchangedfromlastmonthsreport,at12.4mb/dfor3Q11
and12.2mb/dfor4Q11.Regionalrunsrose165kb/dinAugust,to12.6mb/d,325kb/dbelowayear
earlier. Refinery stoppages continue to be heavier than last year, in part due to economic shutdowns.
While the loss of Libyan supplies since February prompted several refiners to undertake turnarounds
earlier than planned, several plants are currently reducing runs or shutting altogether due to poor
margins.WeincludetherecentclosureofEnisPortoMaghera,Venicerefineryinthismonthsreport.
Eni announced it had shut the 70 kb/d Venice refinery from November due to a worsening in refining
margins. The refinery processed mainly Libyan crudes and could restart as more supplies become
available.TheHeadofPlanningatEnisdownstreamdivisionsaidthatcompanyhascutcrudedistillation
runsacrossitsItalianrefiningnetworkinrecentweeksduetopooreconomics.
Intermsofscheduledmaintenance,themaincontributorsaretheNetherlands,withbothShellsPernis
and BPs Rotterdam undertaking work in October. In Germany, Gelsenkirchen is out for most of the
month and in Greece, Petrolas Elefsis is also undertaking work. Also notable is the 49day partial
shutdownofStatoils120kb/dKalundborgrefineryinDenmarkfromlateSeptember.
mb/d
OECD Europe
mb/d
Crude Throughput
14.4
Firm Shutdowns
2.0
13.9
OECD Europe
1.5
13.4
12.9
1.0
12.4
0.5
11.9
11.4
0.0
Jan
Mar May
Range 06-10
2010
2011(est.)
Jul
Sep
Nov Jan
Average 06-10
2011
Jan
2011 reported
Sep
Nov
2010
Jan
2011 forecast
AlsoinEurope,refineryconsolidationmovedastepfurtherthislastmonth,asLyondellBasellannounced
planstopermanentlycloseits105kb/dBerrelEtangrefineryinFranceinSeptember.Theplantwasput
upforsaleinMay,butnobuyerswerefound.Whileemployeesattheaffectedplantwentonstrikein
protestattheannouncement,workersatFrancesotherrefineriesvotedagainstjoiningtheprotest.This
isincontrasttolastyear,whenallofFrances11refineries,withacombinedcapacityofsome1.8mb/d,
wereshutfollowingtheclosureofTotalsDunkirkrefinery,andemergencystockshadtobetappedto
meet domestic demand. After intense negotiations between the companys management and the
unions,guaranteeingnolayoffsuntil31March2012,theBerrelEtangrefineryrestartedon10October.
Therestartistemporary,however,astheplantwillbemothballedforaperiodofuptotwoyearsasof
31December2011,allowingmoretimetoattractpotentialbuyersormarginstoimprove.
12O CTOBER 2011
Jul
Mar May
Range 06-10
55
R EFINING
OMVannouncedon21Septemberthatitwouldreduceitsdownstreambusinessfromaround50%ofits
assetbasecurrently,to25%within10years.Thecompanysaidinitsmediumandlongertermstrategy
it will increase its upstream presence and sell off refining and marketing assets worth up to 1 bn by
2014.OMValreadystoppedcrudeprocessingatitsRomanianArchepimplantin2011.Thecompanystill
operatesthePetrobrazirefineryinRomania,aswellastheSchwechatrefineryinAustria,Burghausenin
Germanyandholdsa45%stakeinBayernoil,whichoperatesanothertwoGermanplants.OMVwillstill
investinmodernisingthe90kb/dPetrobrazirefinery(ownedthroughitsmajoritystakeinPetrom).
OECD Pacific crude runs were weaker than expected in August, mainly on lowerthanexpected South
Korean refinery runs. Still, South Korean throughputs were sufficiently buoyant to support product
exports some 11.1% higher than a year earlier, according to data from the energy ministry. After
reaching a seasonal peak of 3.4 mb/d in August, Japanese crude runs fell seasonally in September as
refineries started autumn turnarounds. Throughputs were also hampered by Typhoon Roke, which
delayed crude tanker shipments. As a result, Japanese runs were revised down by 120 kb/d for the
month,toabout150kb/dbelowayearearlier.AlsoinJapan,ShowaShellpermanentlyshutits120kb/d
OhgimachirefineryinKawasakiinSeptember,inlinewithpreviouslyannouncedplans.
OECD Pacific
mb/d
m b/d
5.0
Crude Throughput
8.0
Japan Weekly Refinery Throughput
4.5
7.5
4.0
7.0
6.5
3.5
6.0
3.0
5.5
2.5
Jan
Source: PAJ, IEA est imates
Jan
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2011 (est.)
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
Oct
5-yr Average
2010
2011
Non-OECD Refinery Throughputs

NonOECD refinery throughputs have been revised lower for both 3Q11 and 4Q11 following weaker
thanexpectedrunsinChinainAugustanddisruptionstorefineryoperationsinOtherAsia,primarilydue
tothefireandclosureofShells500kb/dPulauBukomrefineryinSingapore.TotalnonOECDrunsare
assessedat38.4mb/dand39.0mb/dfor3Q11and4Q11,up520kb/dand675kb/dyoy,respectively.
China
Non-OECD Total
mb/d
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 06-10
2010
mb/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
Crude Throughput
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011(est.)
Crude Throughput
Jan
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 (est.)
Jul
Sep
Nov
2009
2011
Jan
ChinasrefineryrunsfelltothesecondlowestreadingsofarthisyearinAugust,at8.66mb/d,or5.9%
higherthanayearearlier.WhilemaintenanceisexpectedtocontinuetoconstrainrunsoverSeptember
and October, the restart of PetroChinas Dalian refinery in early September, as well as the start up of
new capacity, will likely lead to higher runs at the end of this year. By late October, CNPC will start
56
12O CTOBER 2011
R EFINING
operating a new 100 kb/d crude distillation unit (CDU) at its Ningxia refinery. The unit was originally
slatedforstartupbytheendofthisyear.Sinopecstartedtestrunsatitsnew100kb/dBeihairefineryat
the end of September, following the recent commissioning of a new 160kb/d unit at the Changling
refineryincentralChina.
OtherAsianrefinerythroughputscontinuetobeconstrainedbymaintenanceandunscheduledoutages.
Mostnotably,thefireandsubsequentclosureofShells500kb/dPulauBukomrefineryinSingaporeon
28 September severely curtailed regional product availability. Force majeure was already declared on
middle distillate exports and Shell cancelled the lifting of 4 mb of October Arab Light crude. On
10October,thecompanyrestartedacrudedistillationunit(210kb/d),ata50%utilisationrate.Sources
saidatemporarydeliverysystemhadbeenbuilttodiverttheoilproductsawayfromtheareadamaged
by the fire and into storage tanks in other locations on the site. The partial restart also allows the
chemicalcomplextorunatreducedrates.Whiletheextentofthedamagessustainedduringthefireare
notyetclear,weassumethatafullstartupisunlikelyforatleastanothermonth.Otherestimatesvary,
withsomesourcessayingitcouldtakeupto6monthsbeforetheplantcanresumenormaloperations.
TheShelloutagefollowsontheheelsofanotherlargeshutdown,atTaiwans540kb/dMailiaorefinery.
Formosa reportedly restarted the last of its three 180 kb/d crude units in midSeptember, though the
reactivation of RFCC and MTBE units has apparently been delayed. The plant was forced shut in July
followingafire.RegionalproductmarketswerefurthertightenedduetotheclosureofVietnamssole
refineryfrommidJulytoendAugust,leadingtoa71%surgeinVietnameseproductimportsinAugust.
IndianrefineryrunsinchedlowerinAugust,toanestimated4.02mb/d(accountingforbothReliances
export refinery at Jamnagar and the recently commissioned Bina plant, which are currently excluded
from official statistics). Total throughputs were nevertheless 5.3% above a year earlier. Runs are
expected to drop further in September as several plants, including Essars Vadinar refinery, shut for
maintenance.Overcomingmonths,Indianrefineryrunswilllikelybesupportedbytherampingupofthe
Bina refinery to full capacity, the commissioning of the 180 kb/d Bathinda plant, as well as expanded
throughputcapacityatEssarsVadinarrefinery.
mb/d
10.0
Other Asia
mb/d
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.4
Crude Throughput
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
Jan
Mar May
Range 06-10
2010
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

Average 06-10
2011(est.)
Jan
FSU
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
Jul
Range 06-10
2010
2011(est.)
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011
FSUrefineryrunswereslightlylowerinAugustasRussianrefineriesprocessed5.26mb/d,down61kb/d
fromamonthearlier.Gasolineproductioncontinuedtoincreasehowever,attheexpenseoflowerfuel
oil and gasoil output. Russias newest refinery, the 140 kb/d Tatneft plant in Nizhnekamsk, reportedly
startedcommercialproductionfinallyinSeptember.Theplantwasscheduledtoreceive90kb/dofcrude
feedstockinSeptember.
In Africa, Libyan refineries Tobruk (20 kb/d) and Sarir (10 kb/d) reportedly resumed operations in the
third week of September, followed by the 120 kb/d Zawiya refinery in October. Ras Lanuf (220kb/d)
remains shut. Meanwhile, Ghanas sole refinery shut for almost a month in September due to crude
supply outages following problems securing letters of credits for feedstock. Chads recently
12O CTOBER 2011
57
R EFINING
commissioned20kb/drefineryalsohaltedoperationson25Septemberfor40days.CNPCarguesthat
theproductpriceagreedwiththeChadiangovernmentistoolow,resultinginheavylosses.Apparently,
theagreementwastosupplylocalmarketsatapriceof200CFA($0.41)perlitreofrefinedproducts.
OECD Refinery Yields

OECD refinery yields in July increased for naphtha, jet fuel/kerosene and other products, and fell for
gasoline. Gasoil/diesel and residual fuel oil yields were unchanged from June. The largest change
occurred for gasoline yields, which fell 0.8 percentage points (pp) amid lower relative output in all
regions.Naphthayieldsincreased0.4ppwiththelargestincreaseseeninEurope,whereJulyyieldswere
1ppabovethefiveyearaverage.OECDgasoil/dieselyieldswereunchangedfromJune,asanincreasein
OECD North America was offset by lower yields in both Europe and the Pacific. OECD gross output
increased 760 kb/d from Junes level, but is still almost 600 kb/d lower than last years July output,
mainlyonlowerOECDEuropeanoutput.
37%
OECD - Gasoline
OECD - Gasoil / Diesel
Refinery Yield - Five-year Range

32%
36%
31%
35%
30%
34%
29%
33%
32%
28%
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
Oct
Jan
5-yr Average
2011
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
Oct
Jan
5-yr Average
2011
InOECDNorthAmerica,gasoil/dieselyieldsincreasedattheexpenseofgasoline.Aweaksummerdriving
seasonintheUSandstrongerproductcrackspreadsformiddledistillates,supportedbydemandfrom
LatinAmericalikelyexplaintheshift.Althoughgasolineyieldsfell0.7ppinJulyandare1ppbelowlast
yearslevel,theyarestill0.8ppabovethefiveyearaverage.Gasoil/dieselyieldsontheotherhandwere
1.6ppabovelastyearsleveland1.8ppabovethefiveyearaverage.
Gasolineandgasoil/dieselyieldsfellinOECDEuropeby0.7and0.5pprespectively,andgasolineyields
were in July 2pp below the fiveyear average, reflecting poor gasoline cracks. The largest change was
howeverinresidualfueloilyields,whichfell3.7ppinJuly,likelyduetowidefueloildiscounts.Naphtha
yieldsincreased0.9pponexpectedhighergasolineblendingdemand.
OECD N. America - Gasoil / Diesel
OECD Europe - Gasoline
Refinery Yield - Five-year range
28%
27%
26%
25%
24%
23%
22%
24%
23%
22%
21%
20%
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Range 2006-10
5-yr Average
2010
2011
Jan
Apr
Range 2006-10
2010
Jul
Oct
Jan
5-yr Average
2011
In OECD Pacific, increased petrochemical demand pushed up naphtha yields. Jet fuel/kerosene yields
increased on seasonally stronger demand at the expense of gasoil/diesel yields, which fell 1.5pp from
JuneasearlierexpectationsofhigherdieseldemandfromChinadissipated.
58
12O CTOBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TABLES
Table 1 - World Oil Supply and Demand

2008 2009
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America
Europe
Pacific
24.2 23.3
15.4 14.7
8.1
7.7
23.4 23.7 24.1 23.9 23.8

14.3 14.3 14.9 14.8 14.6
8.2
7.3 7.6
8.1
7.8
23.8 23.3 23.6 23.5 23.5

14.2 14.1 14.7 14.6 14.4
8.3 7.1 7.8
8.4 7.9
23.5 23.1 23.6 23.4 23.4

14.1 13.9 14.6 14.5 14.3
8.6 7.4
7.5 8.1
7.9
Total OECD
47.6 45.6
45.9 45.3 46.6 46.7 46.2
46.3 44.5 46.0 46.4 45.8
46.1 44.4 45.7 46.0 45.6
4.2
4.2
0.8
0.7
7.7
8.1
9.7 10.1
6.0
6.0
7.2
7.5
3.3
3.3
4.4
4.3 4.6
4.6
4.5
0.7
0.7 0.7
0.7
0.7
8.6
9.1 8.9
9.7
9.1
10.3 10.5 10.1 10.5 10.4
6.0
6.3 6.5
6.4
6.3
7.4
7.8 8.3
7.7
7.8
3.3
3.4 3.4
3.4
3.4
4.5 4.6 4.9

4.7 4.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7
9.5 9.5 9.5
9.8 9.6
10.7 10.8 10.4 10.8 10.7
6.3 6.5 6.6
6.5 6.5
7.6 8.0 8.4
7.8 7.9
3.4 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4
4.6 4.6
4.9 4.8
4.7
0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7
0.7
9.9 10.1 10.0 10.3 10.1
11.0 11.1 10.8 11.2 11.0
6.5 6.7
6.8 6.8
6.7
7.8 8.2
8.6 8.0
8.2
3.5 3.5
3.5 3.6
3.5
Total Non-OECD
38.9 39.9
40.8 42.1 42.4 43.0 42.1
42.6 43.4 43.7 43.8 43.4
44.0 45.0 45.3 45.3 44.9
86.5 85.5
86.8 87.4 89.0 89.7 88.2
88.9 88.0 89.8 90.2 89.2
90.2 89.4 91.0 91.3 90.5
Europe
Pacific
13.3 13.6
4.8
4.6
0.6
0.7
14.0 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.1

4.5
4.2 3.8
4.2
4.2
0.6
0.6 0.6
0.6
0.6
14.4 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.3

4.1 3.9 3.8
4.2 4.0
0.5 0.5 0.6
0.6 0.5
14.6 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5

4.2 3.8
3.8 4.0
3.9
0.6 0.7
0.7 0.7
0.7
Total OECD
18.8 18.8
19.1 18.8 18.5 19.2 18.9
19.0 18.6 18.6 19.2 18.9
19.4 18.8 18.8 19.2 19.1
12.8 13.3
0.1
0.1
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.9
1.7
1.7
2.6
2.6
28.4 29.1
13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5

0.1
0.1 0.1
0.1
0.1
4.0
4.1 4.1
4.2
4.1
3.7
3.7 3.7
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.1 4.1
4.1
4.1
1.7
1.7 1.7
1.7
1.7
2.5
2.5 2.5
2.5
2.5
29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8
13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.6

0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1
4.2 4.2 4.1
4.2 4.2
3.6 3.5 3.5
3.5 3.5
4.2 4.2 4.2
4.4 4.2
1.7 1.6 1.6
1.7 1.7
2.5 2.5 2.5
2.5 2.5
30.1 29.6 29.7 30.1 29.9
13.7 13.8 13.6 13.8 13.7

0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1
0.1
4.3 4.3
4.3 4.3
4.3
3.5 3.4
3.4 3.4
3.4
4.4 4.5
4.5 4.5
4.5
1.7 1.7
1.7 1.7
1.7
2.6 2.6
2.6 2.6
2.6
30.2 30.4 30.2 30.4 30.3
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Total Demand
OECD SUPPLY
North America4
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia2
Latin America2,4
Middle East
Africa2
Total Non-OECD
Processing Gains3
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
Global Biofuels4
1.4
1.6
1.4
2.0
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.6
2.0
2.3
2.1
2.0
Total Non-OPEC2
50.6 51.5
52.2 52.6 52.6 53.1 52.6
52.7 52.3 52.7 53.4 52.8
53.6 53.4 53.6 54.0 53.7
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition2
49.6 51.5
52.2 52.6 52.6 53.1 52.6
52.7 52.3 52.7 53.4 52.8
53.6 53.4 53.6 54.0 53.7
Total OPEC2
31.6 29.1
4.5
4.9
36.2 34.1
29.3 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5

5.2
5.2 5.5
5.6
5.3
34.5 34.5 35.1 35.2 34.8
30.0 29.4 30.1

5.8 5.8 5.9
35.8 35.2 36.0
OPEC: Historical Composition2
37.2 34.1
34.5 34.5 35.1 35.2 34.8
35.8 35.2 36.0
Total Supply6
86.8 85.6
86.6 87.1 87.7 88.3 87.4
88.5 87.5 88.7
0.4
0.0
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.0
OPEC
Crude5
NGLs
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

Reported OECD
Industry
0.3 -0.1
Government
0.0
0.1
Total
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit
Miscellaneous to balance7
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
-0.9
0.1
6.0
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.3
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.9
-0.2
-0.7
0.1
-0.4
0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-1.3
-0.2
-0.8
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.8
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-1.3
-1.4
-0.8
-0.4
-0.4
-1.1
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.8
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.9
31.4 29.1
31.3 28.8
29.4 29.7 31.0 31.0 30.3

29.1 28.4 30.1 30.7 29.6
30.4 29.9 31.2 30.8 30.6

30.2 29.1 30.7 30.4 30.1
30.5 29.8 30.9 30.9 30.5

30.0 29.4 30.5 30.5 30.1
1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,
oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
2 Other Asia includes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time.
3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses.
4 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
5 As of the March 2006 OMR, Venezuelan Orinoco heavy crude production is included within Venezuelan crude estimates. Orimulsion fuel remains within the OPEC NGL and
non-conventional category, but Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
6 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
7 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas.
8 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs.
9 Equals the "Call on OPEC + Stock Ch." with "Miscellaneous to balance" added for historical periods and with an average of "Miscellaneous to balance" for the most recent 8 quarters added for forecast periods.
12 O CTOBER 2011
59
T ABLES
Table 1A
Table 1a - WORLD
World Oil
ChangesFROM
fromLAST
LastMONTH'S
MonthsTABLE
Table11
OILSupply
SUPPLYand
AND Demand:
DEMAND: CHANGES
2008 2009
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America
Europe
Pacific
-0.1
0.2
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
Total OECD
0.1
0.1
0.1
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
-0.1
-
0.1
-0.2
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-0.1
-
-0.2
-
-0.1
-0.1
-
-0.1
-0.1
-
Total Non-OECD
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
Total Demand
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.1
-
0.3
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
0.2
-0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
Total OECD
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
Total Non-OECD
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
Processing Gains
Global Biofuels
Total Non-OPEC
0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
Non-OPEC: historical composition
0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
Crude
NGLs
Total OPEC
OPEC: historical composition
Total Supply
0.1
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

REPORTED OECD
Industry
Government
-
Total
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit

Miscellaneous to balance
0.1
0.2
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
0.2
-0.2
-
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
NON-OECD DEMAND
OECD SUPPLY
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
OPEC
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.
When submitting their monthly oil statistics, OECD Member countries periodically update data for prior periods. Similar updates to non-OECD data can occur.
60
12 O CTOBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 2
Table 2 - Summary of Global Oil Demand
SUMMARY OF GLOBAL OIL DEMAND

2009
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
2010
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
2011
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
2012
Demand (mb/d)
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
Asia
Middle East
Latin America
FSU
Africa
Europe
Total Non-OECD
World
23.29
14.66
7.69
45.64
18.19
7.49
5.99
4.18
3.33
0.71
39.90
85.54
23.41
14.31
8.23
45.95
18.98
7.39
6.05
4.39
3.33
0.67
40.81
86.76
23.69
14.25
7.34
45.29
19.60
7.80
6.29
4.34
3.43
0.68
42.14
87.42
24.07
14.92
7.62
46.62
19.05
8.25
6.46
4.58
3.37
0.68
42.40
89.02
23.85
14.82
8.07
46.74
20.20
7.68
6.39
4.59
3.43
0.71
42.99
89.74
23.76
14.58
7.82
46.15
19.46
7.78
6.30
4.48
3.39
0.69
42.09
88.24
23.76
14.18
8.35
46.29
20.22
7.59
6.27
4.47
3.40
0.67
42.62
88.91
23.30
14.13
7.12
44.55
20.31
7.99
6.46
4.64
3.33
0.70
43.43
87.98
23.61
14.68
7.75
46.04
19.92
8.35
6.59
4.88
3.30
0.69
43.74
89.78
23.50
14.57
8.36
46.44
20.66
7.77
6.54
4.71
3.42
0.71
43.80
90.24
23.54
14.39
7.89
45.83
20.28
7.93
6.47
4.67
3.36
0.69
43.40
89.23
23.50
14.06
8.58
46.14
20.96
7.80
6.48
4.61
3.50
0.69
44.04
90.18
23.14
13.93
7.38
44.45
21.21
8.24
6.67
4.62
3.54
0.71
44.98
89.43
23.55
14.58
7.54
45.67
20.78
8.62
6.81
4.88
3.51
0.71
45.31
90.98
23.45
14.47
8.07
46.00
21.47
8.00
6.76
4.81
3.57
0.72
45.33
91.33
23.41
14.26
7.89
45.57
21.11
8.16
6.68
4.73
3.53
0.71
44.92
90.48
of which: US50
Europe 5*
China
Japan
India
Russia
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Korea
Mexico
Iran
Total
18.77
8.98
8.06
4.39
3.26
3.03
2.54
2.47
2.16
2.19
2.07
2.11
60.03
18.87
8.87
8.63
4.82
3.38
3.16
2.60
2.33
2.15
2.31
2.07
2.10
61.31
19.15
8.75
9.06
4.07
3.45
3.17
2.71
2.73
2.17
2.18
2.10
2.08
61.61
19.47
9.15
8.92
4.36
3.13
3.41
2.82
3.02
2.26
2.16
2.05
2.08
62.84
19.23
9.01
9.66
4.57
3.38
3.36
2.80
2.54
2.25
2.35
2.07
2.09
63.31
19.18
8.95
9.07
4.45
3.34
3.28
2.73
2.66
2.21
2.25
2.07
2.09
62.27
19.17
8.70
9.53
4.86
3.50
3.20
2.69
2.47
2.25
2.36
2.03
2.09
62.83
18.82
8.57
9.52
3.92
3.57
3.43
2.76
2.84
2.16
2.04
2.05
2.05
61.73
19.01
8.92
9.48
4.43
3.23
3.67
2.83
3.03
2.23
2.18
2.08
2.05
63.14
18.90
8.83
9.82
4.86
3.48
3.46
2.85
2.60
2.22
2.33
2.07
2.04
63.47
18.97
8.76
9.59
4.52
3.44
3.44
2.78
2.74
2.22
2.23
2.06
2.05
62.79
18.95
8.61
9.95
5.10
3.63
3.31
2.75
2.59
2.21
2.33
2.03
2.12
63.57
18.69
8.44
10.08
4.14
3.70
3.38
2.82
2.96
2.13
2.10
2.04
2.09
62.55
19.00
8.83
9.99
4.27
3.35
3.64
2.90
3.17
2.21
2.13
2.05
2.08
63.62
18.87
8.75
10.27
4.58
3.60
3.52
2.93
2.72
2.20
2.31
2.07
2.06
63.88
18.88
8.66
10.07
4.52
3.57
3.46
2.85
2.86
2.18
2.22
2.05
2.09
63.41
% of World
70.2%
70.7%
70.5%
70.6%
70.5%
70.6%
70.7%
70.2%
70.3%
70.3%
70.4%
70.5%
69.9%
69.9%
69.9%
70.1%
1.5
-0.9
1.5
0.7
6.6
2.7
3.7
1.6
2.1
0.0
4.4
2.5
-1.6
-0.9
-3.1
-1.6
3.7
2.5
2.7
6.8
-3.0
2.1
3.1
0.6
-1.9
-1.6
1.7
-1.2
4.6
1.2
2.0
6.5
-2.2
1.3
3.2
0.9
-1.5
-1.7
3.6
-0.7
2.3
1.1
2.4
2.7
-0.3
0.1
1.9
0.6
-0.9
-1.3
1.0
-0.7
4.2
1.8
2.7
4.4
-0.9
0.9
3.1
1.1
-1.1
-0.9
2.8
-0.3
3.7
2.8
3.3
3.2
3.1
2.7
3.3
1.4
-0.7
-1.4
3.7
-0.2
4.4
3.0
3.3
-0.5
6.3
2.5
3.6
1.7
-0.2
-0.7
-2.7
-0.8
4.3
3.1
3.4
0.0
6.4
2.3
3.6
1.3
-0.2
-0.6
-3.5
-0.9
3.9
3.1
3.4
2.0
4.4
2.1
3.5
1.2
-0.6
-0.9
0.0
-0.6
4.1
3.0
3.3
1.1
5.1
2.4
3.5
1.4
0.35
-0.13
0.12
0.34
1.25
0.20
0.22
0.07
0.07
0.00
1.81
2.15
-0.39
-0.12
-0.23
-0.74
0.72
0.20
0.17
0.30
-0.10
0.01
1.29
0.55
-0.47
-0.24
0.13
-0.58
0.88
0.10
0.13
0.30
-0.07
0.01
1.34
0.76
-0.35
-0.26
0.29
-0.31
0.46
0.08
0.15
0.12
-0.01
0.00
0.81
0.50
-0.22
-0.19
0.08
-0.32
0.82
0.14
0.17
0.20
-0.03
0.01
1.31
0.99
-0.26
-0.12
0.23
-0.15
0.74
0.21
0.20
0.14
0.10
0.02
1.42
1.27
-0.16
-0.20
0.26
-0.10
0.90
0.24
0.21
-0.02
0.21
0.02
1.55
1.46
-0.05
-0.10
-0.21
-0.37
0.86
0.26
0.22
0.00
0.21
0.02
1.57
1.21
-0.06
-0.09
-0.29
-0.44
0.81
0.24
0.22
0.09
0.15
0.01
1.53
1.09
-0.13
-0.13
0.00
-0.26
0.83
0.24
0.21
0.05
0.17
0.02
1.52
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.04
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.05
-0.04
-0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-0.05
-0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.07
-0.08
-0.09
0.16
0.03
0.11
-0.03
-0.18
-0.02
0.09
-0.01
0.00
-0.16
-0.05
0.00
0.04
0.02
0.06
-0.01
-0.07
0.00
0.03
-0.01
0.00
-0.07
-0.01
-0.03
0.05
0.01
0.04
-0.02
-0.08
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.00
-0.09
-0.05
-0.03
-0.02
0.00
-0.05
-0.05
-0.06
-0.01
0.00
-0.02
-0.01
-0.16
-0.20
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
-0.09
-0.07
-0.03
0.00
-0.02
-0.01
-0.21
-0.20
-0.03
0.08
0.02
0.07
-0.06
-0.21
-0.04
0.03
-0.02
-0.01
-0.32
-0.25
-0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
-0.07
-0.12
-0.02
0.02
-0.02
-0.01
-0.22
-0.19
-0.02
0.02
0.01
0.02
-0.07
-0.12
-0.03
0.01
-0.02
-0.01
-0.23
-0.21
-0.05
-0.08
-0.06
-0.01
-0.05
-0.16
-0.12
-0.20
-0.18
-0.16
Annual Change (% per annum)

North America
-3.7
-0.1
3.3
3.4
1.3
2.0
Europe
-4.7
-5.2
-1.3
2.2
2.0
-0.6
Pacific
-4.6
1.2
0.4
4.7
0.6
1.7
Total OECD
-4.2
-1.5
1.3
3.3
1.4
1.1
Asia
4.3
12.0
6.8
3.1
6.5
7.0
Middle East
4.0
5.0
3.4
3.0
4.3
3.9
Latin America
0.0
4.6
5.2
6.1
4.5
5.1
FSU
-1.0
8.4
6.7
5.5
7.5
7.0
Africa
1.6
-1.8
1.9
2.1
5.2
1.8
Europe
-6.1
-7.2
-6.6
-3.4
1.5
-4.0
Total Non-OECD
2.6
7.6
5.3
3.6
5.7
5.5
World
-1.1
2.6
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.2
Annual Change (mb/d)
North America
-0.89
-0.01
0.75
0.80
0.31
0.46
Europe
-0.73
-0.78
-0.18
0.33
0.29
-0.08
Pacific
-0.37
0.10
0.03
0.34
0.05
0.13
Total OECD
-1.98
-0.69
0.60
1.47
0.64
0.51
Asia
0.75
2.03
1.25
0.58
1.24
1.27
Middle East
0.28
0.35
0.26
0.24
0.32
0.29
Latin America
0.00
0.27
0.31
0.37
0.27
0.31
FSU
-0.04
0.34
0.27
0.24
0.32
0.29
Africa
0.05
-0.06
0.06
0.07
0.17
0.06
Europe
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.02
0.01
-0.03
Total Non-OECD
1.00
2.87
2.11
1.47
2.33
2.19
World
-0.98
2.18
2.70
2.94
2.97
2.70
Revisions to Oil Demand from Last Month's Report (mb/d)
North America
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pacific
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total OECD
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Asia
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Middle East
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Latin America
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
FSU
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Africa
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Non-OECD
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
World
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
Revisions to Oil Demand Growth from Last Month's Report (mb/d)
World
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
* France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK
12 O CTOBER 2011
61
T ABLES
Table 2a
Table 2a - OECD Regional Oil Demand
OECD REGIONAL OIL DEMAND1
Latest month vs.

2009
2010
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
May 11 Jun 11
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
2.83
0.31
10.56
1.61
4.61
0.92
2.45
2.95
0.37
10.57
1.65
4.82
0.93
2.46
2.76
0.39
10.83
1.70
4.76
0.91
2.71
3.12
0.33
10.51
1.63
5.01
0.89
2.36
3.31
0.36
10.14
1.60
5.04
0.97
2.34
2.72
0.35
10.45
1.68
4.77
0.87
2.46
2.75
0.33
10.36
1.63
4.69
0.84
2.30
2.71
0.39
10.66
1.76
4.95
0.85
2.64
Total
23.29
23.76
24.07
23.85
23.76
23.30
22.89
0.96
1.18
2.31
1.25
6.04
1.44
1.50
0.96
1.26
2.21
1.27
6.13
1.27
1.47
0.89
1.26
2.35
1.37
6.14
1.28
1.64
0.96
1.27
2.14
1.26
6.43
1.30
1.46
1.04
1.27
2.02
1.20
6.04
1.29
1.32
0.98
1.17
2.18
1.27
5.73
1.22
1.57
14.66
14.58
14.92
14.82
14.18
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
0.86
1.62
1.55
0.85
1.61
0.77
0.44
0.84
1.68
1.57
0.87
1.62
0.74
0.49
0.80
1.63
1.65
0.65
1.57
0.75
0.58
0.83
1.75
1.59
0.98
1.70
0.73
0.48
Total
7.69
7.82
7.62
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
4.65
3.11
14.41
3.70
12.25
3.13
4.39
4.76
3.31
14.35
3.80
12.57
2.94
4.42
Total
45.64
46.15
Jul 11
Jun 11
Jul 10
2.68
0.35
10.56
1.69
4.47
0.71
2.72
-0.03
-0.03
-0.10
-0.07
-0.48
-0.14
0.08
0.00
-0.06
-0.35
-0.04
-0.05
-0.27
0.11
23.96
23.19
-0.77
-0.65
0.93
1.13
2.16
1.26
5.73
1.22
1.60
1.00
1.13
2.20
1.34
5.80
1.24
1.70
0.96
1.13
2.17
1.36
5.89
1.29
1.61
-0.04
0.00
-0.03
0.02
0.09
0.05
-0.09
0.07
-0.15
-0.23
-0.03
-0.18
0.01
-0.01
14.13
14.03
14.41
14.41
-0.01
-0.51
0.88
1.78
1.51
1.18
1.67
0.80
0.54
0.81
1.55
1.47
0.64
1.53
0.65
0.48
0.78
1.59
1.48
0.56
1.49
0.60
0.47
0.75
1.60
1.49
0.58
1.58
0.70
0.54
0.80
1.71
1.61
0.59
1.61
0.72
0.54
0.05
0.11
0.11
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.07
0.14
-0.04
-0.02
0.05
-0.04
0.01
8.07
8.35
7.12
6.98
7.23
7.57
0.34
0.17
4.45
3.28
14.83
3.73
12.47
2.94
4.92
4.91
3.36
14.24
3.88
13.14
2.92
4.30
5.23
3.41
13.67
3.98
12.75
3.06
4.19
4.50
3.07
14.10
3.58
12.04
2.74
4.51
4.46
3.05
14.00
3.44
11.91
2.66
4.37
4.45
3.11
14.35
3.68
12.34
2.79
4.88
4.43
3.19
14.33
3.64
11.98
2.72
4.88
-0.02
0.08
-0.02
-0.04
-0.36
-0.07
0.00
0.14
-0.07
-0.62
-0.10
-0.18
-0.29
0.11
46.62
46.74
46.29
44.55
43.90
45.60
45.16
-0.44
-1.00
North America
Europe
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
Pacific
OECD
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
North America comprises US 50 states, US territories, Mexico and Canada.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
62
12 O CTOBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 2b
Table 2b - OECD Oil Demand and % Growth in Demand in Selected

OECD Countries
1
OIL DEMAND IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES
Latest month vs.

2009
2010
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
May 11 Jun 11
Jul 11
Jun 11
Jul 10
United States3
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
2.05
2.17
0.25
0.26
9.00
8.99
1.41
1.45
3.63
3.80
0.51
0.54
1.92
1.97
18.77 19.18
2.03
0.27
9.22
1.49
3.75
0.53
2.18
19.47
2.32
0.22
8.92
1.44
3.94
0.52
1.87
19.23
2.47
0.27
8.61
1.40
3.95
0.61
1.86
19.17
1.96
0.27
8.87
1.49
3.75
0.51
1.97
18.82
2.00
0.25
8.78
1.44
3.66
0.47
1.83
18.43
1.96
0.29
9.05
1.56
3.90
0.47
2.12
19.35
1.94
0.27
8.98
1.48
3.45
0.31
2.19
18.62
-0.02
-0.02
-0.07
-0.08
-0.45
-0.16
0.07
-0.73
-0.04
-0.02
-0.32
-0.03
-0.09
-0.29
0.09
-0.70
Japan
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
0.50
0.72
0.99
0.55
0.43
0.42
0.41
0.39
4.39
0.48
0.77
1.00
0.55
0.41
0.43
0.40
0.41
4.45
0.44
0.73
1.08
0.36
0.42
0.38
0.43
0.51
4.36
0.47
0.81
1.00
0.62
0.43
0.44
0.39
0.40
4.57
0.54
0.79
0.95
0.80
0.41
0.48
0.42
0.47
4.86
0.50
0.65
0.92
0.36
0.39
0.36
0.36
0.39
3.92
0.49
0.67
0.93
0.30
0.35
0.33
0.36
0.38
3.80
0.43
0.66
0.95
0.31
0.41
0.35
0.40
0.46
3.96
0.46
0.73
1.03
0.31
0.41
0.39
0.44
0.48
4.25
0.03
0.07
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.28
0.04
0.04
-0.04
-0.03
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.10
0.36
0.47
0.19
0.64
0.42
0.16
0.11
2.45
0.10
0.41
0.46
0.18
0.67
0.43
0.15
0.09
2.49
0.11
0.41
0.48
0.20
0.71
0.45
0.16
0.12
2.65
0.09
0.41
0.45
0.18
0.69
0.47
0.16
0.09
2.53
0.10
0.44
0.43
0.17
0.63
0.37
0.16
0.05
2.35
0.10
0.40
0.47
0.19
0.67
0.23
0.14
0.12
2.34
0.09
0.40
0.49
0.19
0.71
0.27
0.14
0.13
2.43
0.10
0.38
0.46
0.19
0.64
0.25
0.13
0.13
2.29
0.10
0.39
0.44
0.19
0.67
0.36
0.15
0.13
2.43
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.02
0.11
0.02
0.00
0.13
-0.01
-0.03
-0.05
-0.02
-0.04
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.17
0.10
0.10
0.25
0.09
0.49
0.13
0.18
0.20
1.54
0.11
0.12
0.24
0.10
0.49
0.12
0.13
0.23
1.53
0.09
0.12
0.26
0.11
0.50
0.11
0.13
0.26
1.58
0.11
0.11
0.24
0.09
0.50
0.14
0.12
0.25
1.56
0.12
0.11
0.22
0.09
0.47
0.11
0.10
0.21
1.43
0.08
0.10
0.24
0.10
0.51
0.09
0.11
0.24
1.47
0.08
0.09
0.23
0.09
0.50
0.09
0.10
0.25
1.43
0.08
0.09
0.24
0.11
0.53
0.09
0.13
0.25
1.51
0.08
0.07
0.23
0.12
0.51
0.09
0.15
0.22
1.48
0.00
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.02
0.01
0.01
-0.03
-0.03
0.00
-0.05
-0.04
0.01
-0.03
-0.01
0.00
-0.03
-0.16
0.12
0.13
0.20
0.15
0.67
0.32
0.10
0.18
1.87
0.15
0.13
0.19
0.15
0.69
0.30
0.09
0.17
1.86
0.13
0.12
0.20
0.16
0.71
0.27
0.08
0.19
1.87
0.17
0.10
0.18
0.14
0.69
0.34
0.09
0.15
1.86
0.17
0.13
0.17
0.14
0.69
0.35
0.08
0.13
1.86
0.12
0.14
0.20
0.15
0.71
0.19
0.08
0.19
1.79
0.12
0.15
0.19
0.15
0.70
0.18
0.08
0.19
1.77
0.12
0.14
0.20
0.15
0.72
0.20
0.08
0.21
1.82
0.12
0.14
0.20
0.16
0.70
0.23
0.08
0.20
1.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
-0.02
0.03
0.00
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.02
-0.02
0.00
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.03
0.15
0.02
0.37
0.33
0.43
0.12
0.08
0.14
1.65
0.14
0.03
0.35
0.33
0.45
0.12
0.06
0.14
1.62
0.12
0.03
0.36
0.33
0.45
0.14
0.06
0.15
1.63
0.13
0.02
0.34
0.34
0.44
0.12
0.07
0.15
1.60
0.14
0.03
0.34
0.34
0.45
0.11
0.07
0.15
1.62
0.15
0.03
0.34
0.32
0.45
0.11
0.06
0.16
1.61
0.13
0.02
0.34
0.30
0.45
0.10
0.06
0.15
1.55
0.16
0.03
0.34
0.35
0.46
0.12
0.05
0.17
1.68
0.14
0.02
0.32
0.30
0.43
0.11
0.07
0.16
1.56
-0.02
-0.01
-0.03
-0.04
-0.03
0.00
0.01
-0.01
-0.13
0.02
0.00
-0.03
-0.02
-0.02
-0.03
0.00
0.01
-0.07
0.35
0.05
0.73
0.11
0.23
0.28
0.10
0.31
2.16
0.35
0.08
0.73
0.11
0.22
0.31
0.10
0.30
2.21
0.33
0.09
0.77
0.12
0.22
0.31
0.09
0.34
2.26
0.36
0.08
0.73
0.11
0.23
0.34
0.11
0.30
2.25
0.39
0.09
0.69
0.11
0.22
0.36
0.11
0.28
2.25
0.36
0.08
0.74
0.10
0.22
0.28
0.09
0.29
2.16
0.34
0.08
0.74
0.10
0.23
0.29
0.09
0.28
2.14
0.35
0.09
0.75
0.12
0.23
0.28
0.09
0.32
2.22
0.33
0.08
0.77
0.12
0.21
0.30
0.09
0.32
2.23
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.02
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
-0.02
0.04
Germany
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
Italy
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
France
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
United Kingdom
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
Canada
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
3 US figures exclude US territories.
12 O CTOBER 2011
63
T ABLES
Table 3 - World Oil Production
Table 3
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION
2010
2011
2012
2Q11
3Q11
8.90
3.65
2.67
2.48
2.15
0.59
0.82
1.55
2.25
0.12
1.26
0.50
2.51
9.41
3.53
2.69
2.53
2.24
0.59
0.82
1.70
2.26
0.04
1.28
0.49
2.52
29.44
5.80
30.09
5.93
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
9.40
3.53
2.65
2.50
2.21
0.60
0.82
1.67
2.32
0.06
1.28
0.49
2.43
9.50
3.51
2.68
2.53
2.23
0.60
0.82
1.69
2.28
0.00
1.28
0.49
2.56
9.32
3.54
2.74
2.55
2.27
0.56
0.82
1.74
2.18
0.08
1.29
0.50
2.56
29.95
5.93
30.17
5.93
30.15
5.93
OPEC
Crude Oil
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Neutral Zone
Qatar
Angola
Nigeria
Libya
Algeria
Ecuador
Venezuela
Total Crude Oil6
Total NGLs1,6
6
8.13
3.70
2.36
2.31
2.03
0.53
0.80
1.73
2.08
1.55
1.25
0.47
2.53
29.49
5.35
5.88
6.30
6.00
6.15
6.19
Total OPEC
34.83
35.24
36.02
35.88
36.10
36.08
OPEC: Historical Composition6
34.83
35.24
36.02
35.88
36.10
36.08
NON-OPEC2
OECD
North America
United States5
Mexico
Canada
Europe
UK
Norway
Others
Pacific
Australia
Others
14.10
7.77
2.96
3.37
4.19
1.37
2.17
0.65
0.61
0.51
0.10
14.32
7.94
2.93
3.44
4.00
1.22
2.11
0.66
0.54
0.46
0.09
14.47
8.03
2.85
3.59
3.94
1.24
2.07
0.63
0.67
0.58
0.09
14.26
8.04
2.96
3.26
3.85
1.18
2.01
0.67
0.50
0.42
0.08
14.29
7.94
2.92
3.42
3.81
1.09
2.07
0.65
0.55
0.46
0.09
14.37
7.93
2.88
3.55
4.20
1.36
2.18
0.66
0.61
0.52
0.09
14.63
8.03
2.90
3.70
4.16
1.34
2.17
0.65
0.64
0.55
0.09
14.33
8.11
2.88
3.33
3.85
1.23
1.99
0.63
0.67
0.58
0.09
14.35
8.04
2.93
3.38
3.84
1.03
2.17
0.64
0.50
0.41
0.09
14.44
7.98
2.94
3.52
3.69
1.04
2.00
0.66
0.57
0.47
0.10
14.06
7.81
2.89
3.37
3.89
1.21
2.03
0.65
0.59
0.50
0.09
Total OECD
18.90
18.86
19.08
18.62
18.65
19.18
19.44
18.84
18.69
18.70
18.55
13.55
10.45
3.10
13.63
10.57
3.07
13.72
10.62
3.10
13.59
10.55
3.04
13.60
10.60
3.00
13.71
10.60
3.11
13.70
10.58
3.12
13.77
10.63
3.14
13.48
10.57
2.90
13.66
10.60
3.05
13.66
10.62
3.03
Asia
China
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
Others
7.80
4.10
0.72
0.86
0.97
1.14
7.69
4.17
0.63
0.90
0.91
1.08
7.73
4.28
0.58
0.92
0.85
1.09
7.65
4.17
0.61
0.89
0.91
1.07
7.62
4.10
0.63
0.90
0.91
1.08
7.65
4.17
0.57
0.92
0.89
1.09
7.74
4.27
0.58
0.92
0.87
1.10
7.73
4.30
0.58
0.92
0.85
1.08
7.62
4.11
0.63
0.89
0.92
1.06
7.63
4.09
0.67
0.88
0.91
1.09
7.60
4.11
0.59
0.91
0.90
1.09
Europe
0.14
0.14
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.14
Latin America
Brazil5
Argentina
Colombia
Others
4.07
2.14
0.69
0.79
0.45
4.23
2.21
0.67
0.92
0.44
4.48
2.34
0.68
1.02
0.44
4.16
2.18
0.61
0.93
0.44
4.23
2.20
0.67
0.92
0.44
4.36
2.27
0.68
0.97
0.44
4.41
2.29
0.68
0.99
0.44
4.45
2.32
0.68
1.01
0.44
4.15
2.17
0.65
0.90
0.43
4.29
2.21
0.68
0.96
0.45
4.25
2.23
0.69
0.89
0.44
1.72
0.86
0.39
0.28
0.19
1.66
0.89
0.36
0.21
0.20
1.69
0.92
0.33
0.24
0.19
1.60
0.87
0.38
0.15
0.20
1.63
0.89
0.35
0.19
0.20
1.67
0.90
0.34
0.23
0.20
1.70
0.92
0.34
0.25
0.20
1.69
0.92
0.33
0.24
0.20
1.62
0.88
0.36
0.18
0.20
1.67
0.89
0.37
0.21
0.20
1.61
0.90
0.33
0.18
0.20
2.52
0.70
0.25
1.58
2.53
0.69
0.24
1.60
2.56
0.68
0.25
1.63
2.51
0.69
0.23
1.58
2.53
0.69
0.24
1.60
2.54
0.68
0.25
1.61
2.55
0.68
0.24
1.62
2.57
0.68
0.24
1.65
2.53
0.69
0.24
1.60
2.53
0.69
0.24
1.61
2.54
0.69
0.25
1.60
Total Non-OECD
29.80
29.89
30.30
29.65
29.75
30.07
30.24
30.35
29.54
29.92
29.79
Processing Gains4
2.10
2.17
2.26
2.14
2.14
2.23
2.28
2.23
2.14
2.14
2.14
Global Biofuels5
1.82
1.85
2.01
1.89
2.13
1.91
1.61
2.00
2.12
2.14
2.14
TOTAL NON-OPEC6
52.61
52.77
53.65
52.30
52.66
53.39
53.56
53.42
52.48
52.90
52.60
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition6
52.61
52.77
53.65
52.30
52.66
53.39
53.56
53.42
52.48
52.90
52.60
TOTAL SUPPLY
87.45
87.53
88.68
88.36
89.00
88.68
NON-OECD
Former USSR
Russia
Others
Middle East
Oman
Syria
Yemen
Others
Africa
Egypt
Gabon
Others
1 Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. Venezuelan Orimulsion (but not Orinoco extra-heavy oil),
and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE. Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
2 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources
3 Includes small amounts of production from Israel, Jordan and Bahrain.
4 Net volumetric gains and losses in refining and marine transportation losses.
5 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
6 Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.
64
12 O CTOBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 4
Table 4 - OECD Industry Stocks and
Quarterly Stock Changes/OECD Government1
OECD
AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES
Controlled Stocks
andINDUSTRY
QuarterlySTOCKS
Stock Changes
North America
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
Europe
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
Pacific
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
Total OECD
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS
in Million Barrels
in Million Barrels
STOCK CHANGES
in mb/d
Apr2011
May2011
Jun2011
Jul2011
Aug2011*
Aug2008
Aug2009
Aug2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
510.9
238.9
212.4
47.7
649.4
513.6
247.5
214.0
44.5
670.2
499.1
248.4
213.4
43.9
678.7
486.8
249.8
230.8
45.2
710.6
485.9
243.5
235.5
46.4
717.8
421.9
221.7
205.8
45.8
660.4
460.3
237.1
247.2
41.4
738.0
499.3
253.5
248.7
46.8
740.8
0.02
0.04
0.14
-0.02
0.23
-0.30
0.02
-0.07
0.01
-0.32
0.27
-0.03
-0.24
-0.05
-0.58
0.02
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.28
1310.9
1338.8
1337.8
1360.4
1362.9
1246.5
1361.1
1400.8
0.33
-0.77
-0.37
0.47
313.7
95.4
283.9
68.7
560.3
319.6
92.2
283.4
68.6
557.8
318.1
92.3
274.2
65.3
547.9
310.0
92.8
270.8
61.5
541.6
309.1
91.2
270.2
63.2
541.0
323.8
103.7
278.8
77.4
572.7
335.5
94.0
307.3
68.4
579.4
348.5
94.8
289.7
72.9
568.3
-0.23
-0.02
-0.10
-0.01
-0.12
0.04
0.02
-0.02
-0.09
-0.07
0.00
0.04
0.09
-0.01
0.12
-0.05
-0.09
-0.12
-0.02
-0.20
939.9
944.1
934.5
922.7
921.2
968.0
986.0
985.9
-0.39
0.03
0.06
-0.22
166.7
26.8
60.3
22.0
167.5
161.2
24.8
63.8
21.3
169.6
159.5
25.0
66.8
21.3
171.4
163.7
25.2
66.5
21.2
176.7
154.8
25.3
69.6
19.4
179.5
166.8
24.3
76.0
23.7
195.9
165.0
24.2
71.4
21.8
182.8
161.6
23.9
63.8
20.6
177.0
-0.12
-0.03
0.09
0.01
0.11
0.03
-0.01
-0.07
-0.03
-0.16
0.00
0.01
-0.06
0.02
-0.09
0.01
0.01
0.14
0.01
0.18
408.4
405.5
404.9
411.9
407.6
438.1
413.8
409.0
-0.03
-0.13
-0.10
0.26
991.3
361.1
556.6
138.4
1377.2
994.3
364.5
561.2
134.4
1397.6
976.7
365.7
554.3
130.5
1397.9
960.5
367.7
568.0
127.9
1428.9
949.7
360.0
575.3
129.0
1438.3
912.6
349.7
560.6
147.0
1429.0
960.8
355.3
625.9
131.5
1500.3
1009.4
372.2
602.2
140.3
1486.1
-0.34
0.00
0.14
-0.02
0.22
-0.23
0.03
-0.16
-0.12
-0.55
0.27
0.02
-0.21
-0.04
-0.55
-0.02
-0.09
-0.03
-0.03
0.26
2659.1
2688.4
2677.2
2695.1
2691.7
2652.6
2761.0
2795.7
-0.09
-0.87
-0.41
0.51
OECD GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED STOCKS5 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES

2
RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS
in Million Barrels
in Million Barrels
STOCK CHANGES
in mb/d
Apr2011
May2011
Jun2011
Jul2011
Aug2011*
Aug2008
Aug2009
Aug2010
North America
Crude
Products
726.5
0.0
726.5
0.0
726.5
0.0
718.2
0.0
695.9
0.0
707.2
2.0
724.1
2.0
726.6
2.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.00
Europe
Crude
Products
185.6
234.5
185.6
234.7
184.9
237.1
183.4
237.4
183.2
236.9
178.5
233.7
186.1
240.6
182.9
235.4
-0.04
0.00
0.05
-0.01
-0.01
-0.03
-0.01
0.05
Pacific
Crude
Products
391.1
20.0
391.1
20.0
391.1
20.0
389.1
18.5
390.7
18.7
384.2
19.2
388.5
19.2
387.0
20.0
-0.10
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
1303.3
254.5
1303.3
254.7
1302.5
257.1
1290.8
255.8
1269.8
255.6
1270.0
254.9
1298.7
261.8
1296.4
257.4
-0.13
0.00
0.13
-0.01
0.01
-0.05
-0.01
0.05
1559.2
1559.4
1560.9
1548.0
1526.8
1525.8
1562.2
1555.2
-0.14
0.12
-0.03
0.04
Total OECD
Crude
Products
Total
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
* estimated
1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by
industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Closing stock levels.
3 Total products includes gasoline, middle distillates, fuel oil and other products.
4 Total includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
5 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
12 O CTOBER 2011
65
T ABLES
Table 5
1
Table 5 - Total Stocks on
LandSTOCKS
in OECD
Countries/Total
OECD Stocks
TOTAL
ON LAND
IN OECD COUNTRIES
('millions of barrels' and 'days')
End June 2010 End September 2010

Stock
Level
North America
Canada
Mexico
United States4
Days Fwd2
Demand
End December 2010
End March 2011
End June 2011
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
178.1
54.4
1843.6
79
27
95
194.1
49.0
1863.2
85
24
97
194.9
44.5
1796.1
86
22
94
184.9
45.0
1769.5
84
22
94
188.1
46.5
1807.6
2098.2
87
2128.4
89
2057.6
87
2021.5
87
2064.3
87
42.7
597.1
167.3
8.9
45
137
78
59
40.5
581.8
173.5
8.2
41
127
74
53
38.1
588.3
165.4
8.2
39
121
70
51
39.1
575.4
170.2
8.0
39
147
83
53
39.5
593.2
175.2
8.2
816.0
107
804.0
100
800.0
96
792.7
111
816.0
105
20.1
37.8
20.4
29.8
28.5
170.1
280.4
33.9
17.0
12.8
132.5
0.7
138.8
22.1
63.8
24.9
9.3
134.1
35.5
38.1
58.4
96.1
69
62
99
169
134
91
106
98
107
87
84
11
137
107
106
87
99
94
103
148
80
59
18.9
34.3
21.1
26.9
28.5
163.4
285.6
36.3
15.9
11.4
126.6
0.7
121.2
20.8
64.2
22.8
8.6
133.0
34.4
37.7
58.5
94.5
65
51
105
159
121
88
113
95
103
68
81
12
122
77
108
84
101
92
94
146
90
59
19.7
33.6
21.2
26.8
27.8
168.2
286.8
34.3
15.9
9.8
133.3
0.6
126.4
20.8
65.5
22.9
8.3
133.2
32.4
36.8
58.5
88.8
77
50
117
171
127
91
122
92
119
63
93
10
129
81
123
89
109
93
94
156
101
55
19.4
37.0
21.5
21.4
26.9
167.4
289.4
33.9
17.4
10.8
132.2
0.5
125.7
21.1
62.8
23.5
9.0
132.9
33.7
36.6
58.3
92.8
77
59
106
132
133
94
124
106
124
79
90
9
124
96
109
87
111
97
101
168
85
57
19.6
38.1
21.7
21.5
27.0
166.7
290.8
32.6
17.3
10.2
132.2
0.6
117.8
23.5
64.6
23.3
8.9
130.1
32.7
37.2
56.6
84.9
Total
1404.9
94
1365.5
92
1371.7
97
1374.5
98
1357.8
92
Total OECD
4319.0
-
93
146
4297.9
-
92
145
4229.3
-
91
146
4188.6
-
94
146
4238.2
-
147
Total
Pacific
Australia
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
Total
Europe
Austria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
DAYS OF IEA Net Imports
92
1 Total Stocks are industry and government-controlled stocks (see breakdown in table below). Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks
and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) they include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserves commitments and are
subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Note that days of forward demand represent the stock level divided by the forward quarter average daily demand and is very different from the days of net
imports used for the calculation of IEA Emergency Reserves.
3 End June 2011 forward demand figures are IEA Secretariat forecasts.
4 US figures exclude US territories. Total includes US territories.
5 Data not available for Iceland.
6 Reflects stock levels and prior calendar year's net imports adjusted according to IEA emergency reserve definitions (see www.iea.org/netimports.asp).
Net exporting IEA countries are excluded.
TOTAL OECD STOCKS

CLOSING STOCKS
Total
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
4110
4164
4206
4278
4306
4327
4205
4241
4319
4298
4229
4189
4238
Government
controlled
Millions of Barrels
1526
1522
1527
1547
1561
1564
1564
1567
1562
1549
1561
1558
1561
Industry
2584
2641
2679
2731
2745
2763
2641
2675
2757
2749
2669
2631
2677
Total
88
88
90
96
95
94
92
94
93
92
91
94
92
Industry
Government
controlled
Days of Fwd. Demand 2
33
32
33
35
35
34
34
35
34
33
34
35
34
55
56
57
61
61
60
57
59
59
59
58
59
58
1 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
2 Days of forward demand calculated using actual demand except in 2Q2011 (when latest forecasts are used).
66
12 O CTOBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 6
Table 6 - IEA Member Country Destinations of Selected Crude Streams
IEA MEMBER COUNTRY DESTINATIONS OF SELECTED CRUDE STREAMS1

2008 2009 2010
3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
May 11 Jun 11
Jul 11
Year Earlier
change
Jul 10
Saudi Light & Extra Light

North America
Europe
Pacific
0.70
0.70
1.22
0.52
0.59
1.28
0.69
0.66
1.21
0.73
0.74
1.15
0.75
0.69
1.26
0.71
0.70
1.33
0.72
0.79
1.14
0.81
0.79
1.10
0.73
0.80
1.08
0.53
0.96
1.25
0.65
0.72
1.20
-0.11
0.24
0.06
Saudi Medium
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.64
0.05
0.39
0.40
0.02
0.34
0.36
0.00
0.34
0.33
0.30
0.36
0.37
0.33
0.39
0.36
0.02
0.38
0.38
0.02
0.40
0.37
0.05
0.40
0.43
0.04
0.38
0.30
0.30
0.13
0.07
Saudi Heavy
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.07
0.09
0.24
0.03
0.02
0.15
0.02
0.00
0.22
0.03
0.00
0.23
0.01
0.21
0.02
0.00
0.20
0.03
0.00
0.21
0.04
0.00
0.18
0.02
0.00
0.22
0.02
0.04
0.25
0.04
0.21
-0.02
0.03
Iraqi Basrah Light

North America
Europe
Pacific
0.60
0.21
0.15
0.40
0.12
0.24
0.36
0.09
0.29
0.29
0.13
0.26
0.29
0.08
0.38
0.21
0.03
0.40
0.40
0.10
0.26
0.38
0.14
0.22
0.36
0.14
0.15
0.20
0.17
0.41
0.34
0.13
0.19
-0.13
0.04
0.22
Iraqi Kirkuk
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.08
0.23
-
0.06
0.31
-
0.03
0.27
-
0.05
0.25
-
0.04
0.23
-
0.11
0.21
-
0.07
0.31
-
0.03
0.20
-
0.14
0.44
-
0.40
-
0.05
0.27
-
0.12
-
Iranian Light
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.23
0.08
0.15
0.07
0.24
0.04
0.33
0.04
0.18
0.01
0.24
0.06
0.28
0.03
0.19
0.04
0.28
0.02
0.23
0.03
0.40
0.04
-0.18
-0.01
0.49
0.61
0.40
0.57
0.49
0.52
0.70
0.53
0.43
0.52
0.34
0.63
0.59
0.41
0.59
0.37
0.83
0.44
0.80
0.51
0.80
0.63
0.01
-0.12
Venezuelan Light & Medium

North America
0.62
Europe
0.06
Pacific
0.39
0.07
-
0.14
0.02
-
0.08
0.05
-
0.16
0.01
-
0.06
0.03
-
0.30
0.01
-
0.37
-
0.40
0.01
-
0.18
0.01
-
0.13
0.03
-
0.05
-0.02
-
Venezuelan 22 API and heavier

North America
0.65
Europe
0.07
Pacific
-
0.75
0.07
-
0.86
0.06
-
0.96
0.06
-
0.75
0.05
-
0.89
0.04
-
0.77
0.05
-
0.71
0.04
-
0.78
0.07
-
0.79
0.07
-
0.99
0.07
-
-0.20
-0.01
-
Mexican Maya
North America
Europe
Pacific
1.02
0.14
-
0.93
0.10
-
0.91
0.11
-
0.94
0.11
-
0.92
0.09
-
0.82
0.14
-
0.80
0.12
-
0.89
0.13
-
0.79
0.10
-
0.82
0.17
-
0.90
0.08
-
-0.09
0.08
-
Mexican Isthmus
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.01
0.01
-
0.01
0.01
-
0.04
0.02
-
0.02
-
0.09
0.05
-
0.05
0.01
-
0.08
0.02
-
0.01
0.05
-
0.14
-
0.05
0.01
-
0.01
-
0.05
-
Russian Urals
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.05
1.81
-
0.15
1.72
-
0.08
1.80
-
0.08
1.88
-
0.03
1.71
-
0.01
1.76
-
1.87
-
1.96
-
1.60
-
1.65
-
1.88
-
-0.23
-
Nigerian Light
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.68
0.29
-
0.54
0.32
0.00
0.60
0.34
-
0.64
0.31
-
0.58
0.49
-
0.62
0.40
0.05
0.60
0.40
0.04
0.63
0.54
0.06
0.58
0.40
0.03
0.59
0.46
0.06
0.61
0.26
-
-0.02
0.20
-
Nigerian Medium
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.27
0.14
-
0.21
0.13
-
0.25
0.09
-
0.25
0.09
-
0.22
0.11
-
0.20
0.14
-
0.18
0.17
-
0.08
0.12
-
0.23
0.24
-
0.21
0.06
-
0.23
0.11
-
-0.02
-0.05
-
Iranian Heavy
North America
Europe
Pacific
1 Data based on monthly submissions from IEA countries to the crude oil import register (in '000 bbl), subject to availability. May differ from Table 8 of the Report.
IEA North America includes United States and Canada.
IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Hungary. The Slovak Republic and Poland is excluded through December 2007 but included thereafter.
IEA Pacific data includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan.
2 Iraqi Total minus Kirkuk.
3 Iranian Total minus Iranian Light.
4 33 API and lighter (e.g., Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua Iboe and Oso Condensate).
12 O CTOBER 2011
67
T ABLES
Table 7
Table 7 - Regional OECD Imports
REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS1,2

(thousand barrels per day)
2008
Crude Oil
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
2009
2010
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
8076 7353
7346
9776 8893
9076
6605 6082
6249
24457 22329 22671
7745
9463
6160
23367
6625
9110
6479
22213
6571
8901
6645
22117
6923
8903
6086
21912
6991
9001
5653
21645
Jul-11
Year Earlier
Jul-10 % change
7054
9280
6105
22439
7047
9303
6256
22606
7492
9526
6061
23584
-6%
-2%
3%
-4%
May-11 Jun-11
LPG
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
31
268
589
887
13
260
529
802
8
270
558
836
7
226
533
766
6
299
567
872
21
313
569
904
4
284
547
836
6
250
543
799
1
306
447
755
4
279
642
925
7
217
516
739
-39%
29%
25%
25%
Naphtha
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
56
298
776
1130
22
352
841
1215
36
390
900
1326
59
345
855
1260
35
382
893
1309
34
292
917
1243
51
336
830
1217
62
324
875
1260
70
339
856
1266
41
353
881
1275
65
419
918
1403
-38%
-16%
-4%
-9%
Gasoline
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
1077
215
90
1383
878
193
96
1167
788
174
64
1025
926
207
44
1177
712
127
67
907
668
223
71
961
981
221
61
1262
1110
261
55
1426
947
238
51
1236
739
213
59
1010
1031
228
43
1302
-28%
-7%
38%
-22%
Jet & Kerosene

North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
64
401
34
500
62
452
53
567
76
417
40
532
86
475
29
590
89
396
46
531
62
320
58
440
86
367
43
497
79
304
31
414
85
388
51
525
98
449
36
583
83
374
32
489
19%
20%
9%
19%
Gasoil/Diesel
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
74
871
119
1064
55
1035
87
1177
49
1045
97
1191
27
934
88
1049
14
1235
92
1340
46
1078
99
1224
30
931
153
1114
35
917
133
1084
16
784
125
924
23
928
121
1072
26
952
106
1084
-12%
-2%
14%
-1%
Heavy Fuel Oil

North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
288
458
125
871
270
534
113
917
277
529
117
923
285
504
127
915
254
502
101
857
345
505
147
997
305
582
111
997
179
627
98
904
309
580
104
993
179
663
132
974
297
437
118
852
-40%
52%
12%
14%
Other Products
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
1078
734
298
2110
870
770
325
1964
805
666
335
1806
852
699
382
1932
906
737
352
1996
855
683
383
1921
896
776
252
1924
862
761
233
1856
871
760
223
1854
993
675
317
1985
864
679
374
1917
15%
-1%
-15%
4%
Total Products
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
2667
3245
2032
7944
2171
3595
2045
7810
2038
3491
2111
7639
2241
3390
2059
7689
2017
3678
2118
7812
2032
3415
2244
7690
2355
3498
1995
7848
2334
3443
1966
7743
2300
3394
1858
7552
2078
3559
2188
7825
2374
3306
2106
7786
-12%
8%
4%
0%
10743 9524
9384
13022 12488 12567
8637 8127
8360
32401 30139 30310
9985
12853
8218
31056
8641
12788
8596
30025
8603
12316
8888
29807
9278
12401
8081
29760
9325
12445
7619
29388
9354
12674
7963
29991
9125
12863
8444
30431
10371
12832
8167
31371
-12%
0%
3%
-3%
Total Oil
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels.
2 Excludes intra-regional trade.
3 Includes additives.
68
12 O CTOBER 2011
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12 October 2011

Oil futures tracked latest economic developments amid the

Global oil demand is revised down by 50 kb/d for 2011 and by

OPEC crude oil supply nudged down to 30.15 mb/d in September,

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

GETTING THE BALANCE RIGHT

Quarterly Miscellaneous to Balance (MtB)

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Global Oil Demand (2010-2012)

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Real GDP Growth

OECD, North America

China (excl. Hong Kong)

Current vs. Previous

This picture could deteriorate, however, with a

Oil Demand Sensitivity

World: Total Oil Product Demand

(millio n barrels per day)

2012 2011 vs. 2010

2012 vs. 2011

Global GDP (y-o-y chg)

12O CTOBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Global Oil Demand Growth 2010/2011/2012

Global Demand Growth

OECD: Demand by Driver, Y-o-Y Chg

OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - August 2011

* Including US territo ries

OECD North America: Demand by

OECD North America:

12O CTOBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

US50: Motor Gasoline Demand

US50: Diesel Demand

OECD Europe: Demand by Driver,

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

France: Heating Oil Demand

Germany: Diesel Demand

OECD Pacific: Demand by Driver,

12O CTOBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Japan : Oil Consumption (Crude +

Korea: Naphtha Demand

m b/d Non-OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Non-OECD: Demand by Product

LPG & Ethane

Jet Fuel & Kerosene

Residual Fuel Oil

Non-OECD: Demand by Region

China: Motor Gasoline Demand

China: Passenger Car Sales

Feb 10 Nov 10 Aug 11

12O CTOBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

China: Demand by Product

LPG & Ethane