Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
November 2, 2011
Dena Bank
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
1QFY12 447 308 168 % chg (qoq) 15.3 14.4 15.2 2QFY11 465 326 161 % chg (yoy) 10.7 8.1 20.5
`82 -
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 2,690 1.4 151/70 358,311 10 17,481 5,258 DENA.BO DBNK@IN
For 2QFY2012, Dena Bank registered healthy 20.5% yoy growth in its PAT to `194cr, above our estimates due to lower provisioning expenses than estimated by us. Reported NIM increased by 32bp qoq. The banks asset quality held up pretty well for the quarter. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Loan book shrinks marginally qoq; slippages surprise positively: The growth in business was slow during 2QFY2012, with advances declining by 0.3% qoq (up 18.0% yoy) and deposits growing by 1.6% qoq (20.1% yoy). On the back of lower growth in deposits, the bank was able to sequentially increase its CASA ratio by 45bp to 35.6%. Yield on advances increased by 64bp qoq to 12.0% in 2QFY2012, leading to a sequential improvement of 32bp in reported NIM to 3.2%. During 2QFY2012, non-interest income declined by 8.8% qoq to `113cr, mostly due to a 14.4% decline in fee income to `97cr. Recoveries were strong during 2QFY2012, registering 25.4% qoq growth (down 52.8% yoy). Treasury income also trebled to `4cr, owing to a low base. Asset quality of the bank held up pretty well, despite switchover of `50lakhs and below accounts to system-based NPA recognition during 2QFY2012. Gross NPA ratio stood at 1.93% (1.86% in 1QFY2012) and net NPA ratio stood at 1.15% (1.08% in 1QFY2012), as of 2QFY2012. Outlook and valuation: Dena Bank, with a strong CASA ratio of 35.6%, is better placed than its peers to protect its NIM in a high interest rate environment. After the equity capital infusion of about `540cr by the government, the bank's tier-I ratio has improved to 9.7%. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x FY2013E P/ABV, one of the cheapest among PSU banks. However, considering the hefty exposure to the power sector (~20% of the loan book), which might lead to some chunky NPAs or large restructuring in the books in the coming quarters, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock, and would look to upgrade the stock only once the near-term headwinds subside.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 58.0 8.0 13.5 20.5
3m (4.6) (5.5)
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 1,100 3.3 511 21.0 2.1 17.8 4.6 1.0 1.0 23.5
FY2011 1,763 60.3 612 19.6 2.8 18.3 4.5 0.8 1.0 20.9
FY2012E 2,016 14.3 650 6.2 2.7 19.5 4.2 0.7 0.9 17.4
FY2013E 2,264 12.3 707 8.8 2.7 21.2 3.9 0.6 0.8 16.4
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 1,634 1,226 397 11 1,119 515 113 109 97 4 13 628 276 163 114 352 81 65 11 5 271 77 194 28.5 1,528 1,177 346 5 1,082 447 124 123 113 1 10 571 263 168 95 308 65 22 37 6 242 74 168 30.6 6.9 4.1 14.6 133.3 3.4 15.3 (8.8) (11.0) (14.4) 188.4 25.4 10.0 5.0 (3.3) 19.5 14.4 24.2 192.9 (69.8) (20.5) 11.7 4.0 15.2 (213)bp 1,221 913 303 5 756 465 119 119 92 (0) 27 584 259 163 96 326 73 65 13 (5) 253 92 161 36.5 33.8 34.2 30.7 135.3 48.0 10.7 (4.7) (8.1) 5.1 (52.8) 7.5 6.9 0.1 18.3 8.1 11.6 (11.5) (207.1) 7.1 (16.3) 20.5 (798)bp
% chg 15.0 (12.7) 8.8 0.7 16.0 (47.6) 82.6 60.3 93.3
November 2, 2011
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 42,723 64,236 66.5 22,879 35.6 12.6 9.3 7.0 12.0 3.2 44.0 830 1.9 491 1.2 77.1 1.4 0.4 42,871 63,253 67.8 22,243 35.2 13.1 9.7 6.7 11.3 2.9 46.1 797 1.9 458 1.1 77.9 1.3 0.1 (0.3) 1.6 (127)bp 2.9 45bp (59)bp (43)bp 26bp 64bp 32bp (212)bp 4.2 7bp 7.2 7bp (76)bp 7bp 24bp 36,210 53,498 67.7 20,928 39.1 12.3 8.0 5.5 10.3 3.5 44.3 826 2.3 538 1.5 75.4 1.6 0.4 18.0 20.1 (117)bp 9.3 (350)bp 26bp 125bp 143bp 164bp (30)bp (29)bp 0.6 (33)bp (8.7) (34)bp 178bp (22)bp (7)bp
November 2, 2011
CASA yoy growth (%, RHS) 35.0 30.0 25.0 16.9 9.3 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 -
14.4 13.0
0.4
8.2 6.2
(4.4)
(4.4) (1.5)
(0.3)
1.6
67.7
68.0
39.1
35.4
35.4
35.2
(5.0) (10.0)
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY12 % chg (yoy) 97 4 13 113 109 113 1 10 124 123 (14.4) 188.4 25.4 (8.8) (11.0) 92 (0) 27 119 119 5.1 (52.8) (4.7) (8.1)
November 2, 2011
35.6
66.5 66.0
1.6
1.2
3.0
1.3
1.4
2.3 1.5
1.9 1.3
1.9 1.2
1.9 1.1
0.1
1.9 1.2
0.5
0.5
72.0 70.0
ATMs (RHS) 507 520 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 400
1,257
1,284
1,291
1,297
43.0 42.0
1.4 1.3
November 2, 2011
1,298
44.3
46.7
47.4
46.1
44.0
Investment arguments
Structurally strong CASA
Dena Bank has maintained its CASA ratio at healthy 35%+ levels on account of having higher concentration of its branches in rural and semi-urban areas (mainly in Gujarat and Maharashtra). In the last two years, the bank has maintained a CASA market share of 1.1%, despite competition from private banks. This structural advantage is reflected in the bank's cost of funds at 5.5% in FY2011, which is one of the lowest amongst peers.
Coverage ratio
Source: Angel Research
75.0
75.0
77.0
75.0
November 2, 2011
FY2013 Earlier estimates 2,101 655 2,756 1,276 1,480 466 1,013 329 685 Revised Var. (%) estimates 2,264 613 2,877 1,282 1,595 549 1,047 340 707 7.8 (6.5) 4.4 0.4 7.8 17.7 3.3 3.3 3.3
Earlier estimates 1,843 577 2,420 1,120 1,301 485 816 265 551
Revised Var. (%) estimates 2,016 550 2,566 1,114 1,452 490 962 312 650 9.4 (4.7) 6.0 (0.5) 11.6 1.1 17.9 17.9 17.9
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
November 2, 2011
Mar-12
VijBk
Neutral
60
0.8
7.3
(3.2)
0.4
10.5
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries); #Without adjusting for SASF
November 2, 2011
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY07 855 18.4 422 (8.0) 1,278 8.1 612 8.9 666 7.4 433 (23.9) 233 352.5 31 13.5 202 176.1 FY08 859 0.4 478 13.2 1,337 4.6 650 6.4 686 3.1 369 (14.8) 318 36.3 (42) (13.3) 360 78.5 FY09 1,064 23.9 430 (10.0) 1,495 11.8 768 18.1 726 5.8 185 (49.9) 541 70.5 119 21.9 423 17.5 FY10 1,100 3.3 589 36.9 1,689 13.0 848 10.4 841 15.7 154 (16.8) 687 26.8 176 25.6 511 21.0 FY11 1,763 60.3 534 (9.3) 2,297 36.0 1,073 26.6 1,224 45.6 326 111.7 898 30.8 287 31.9 612 19.6 FY12E 2,016 14.3 550 3.1 2,566 11.7 1,114 3.8 1,452 18.7 490 50.6 962 7.1 312 32.4 650 6.2 FY13E 2,264 12.3 613 11.4 2,877 12.1 1,282 15.0 1,595 9.9 549 12.0 1,047 8.8 340 32.4 707 8.8
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets Growth (%) FY07 287 1,210 27,690 17.2 451 535 1,278 31,451 1,957 861 9,235 18,303 28.6 442 652 31,451 18.5 FY08 287 1,514 33,943 22.6 395 1,066 1,437 38,642 3,533 505 10,283 23,024 25.8 412 885 38,642 22.9 FY09 287 1,884 43,051 26.8 52 1,391 1,796 48,461 4,982 875 12,473 28,878 25.4 405 847 48,461 25.4 FY10 287 2,315 51,344 19.3 46 1,516 2,079 57,587 4,355 759 15,694 35,462 22.8 407 908 57,587 18.8 FY11 333 3,323 64,210 25.1 176 1,516 1,281 70,838 4,721 687 18,769 44,828 26.4 404 1,429 70,838 23.0 FY12E 333 3,875 72,557 13.0 199 1,743 1,561 80,269 4,716 1,605 20,332 51,552 15.0 444 1,619 80,269 13.3 FY13E 333 4,466 83,440 15.0 229 2,022 1,818 92,309 5,424 1,846 22,882 59,801 16.0 495 1,862 92,309 15.0
November 2, 2011
Ratio Analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE 2.9 1.5 1.5 0.1 1.6 1.3 2.9 2.1 0.8 0.7 2.5 1.1 1.4 0.3 1.7 1.1 2.8 1.9 0.9 1.0 2.4 0.4 2.0 0.1 2.1 0.9 3.0 1.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 2.1 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.1 0.8 2.9 1.6 1.3 0.3 1.0 2.7 0.5 2.2 0.0 2.3 0.8 3.1 1.7 1.4 0.4 1.0 21.9 20.9 2.7 0.6 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.9 20.2 17.4 2.6 0.6 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.8 20.0 16.4 11.7 2.2 1.0 6.5 1.6 1.2 5.6 1.3 1.5 4.6 1.0 2.4 4.5 0.8 2.7 4.2 0.7 3.1 3.9 0.6 3.7 7.0 12.5 14.7 17.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 2.0 18.3 2.2 19.5 120.3 2.5 21.2 138.1 3.0 36.8 51.8 62.2 83.4 103.5 4.0 2.0 3.6 1.0 2.4 0.9 2.2 0.8 2.1 1.1 2.9 0.5 1.8 1.2 2.2 0.2 1.9 1.2 2.1 0.4 74.6 2.8 1.2 2.4 0.6 77.0 3.8 1.4 2.4 0.6 75.0 44.5 39.2 34.8 36.0 66.1 67.8 67.1 69.1 11.5 11.1 12.1 12.8 6.1 6.8 6.8 8.2 35.5 69.8 13.4 9.8 35.1 71.1 13.8 9.9 34.0 71.7 13.8 9.9 3.1 0.7 2.5 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.1 1.0 2.8 46.7 1.0 20.9 2.7 43.4 0.9 17.4 2.7 44.5 0.8 16.4 47.9 48.7 51.4 50.2 17.5 25.6 24.0 23.5 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
0.1 (0.1)
November 2, 2011
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Dena Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 2, 2011
11