Renewable Energy: Rapidly Maturing

Technology for the 21st Century

K. J. Touryan
Chief Technology Analyst
National Renewable Energy
Laboratory
Golden, CO

Ken_Touryan@nrel.gov
 Humanity’s Top Ten Problems
for next 50 years
1. ENERGY
2. WATER
3. FOOD
4. ENVIRONMENT
5. POVERTY
6. TERRORISM & WAR
7. DISEASE
8. EDUCATION
9. DEMOCRACY
2003 6.3 Billion People
10. POPULATION 2050 8-10 Billion People
 Changes in Atmospheric Concentration
CO2, CH4, and N20 – A Thousand Year History

Atmospheric concentration CH4 (ppb)

1750

1500

1250

Atmospheric concentration CO2 (ppm)

1000
360
750
340

320 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

300

Atmospheric concentration N2O (pbb)

280
310
260

290
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

270

250
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)
 Global Energy – Wealth Relationship
100
Affluence
GDP Per Capita ($000/person)

Japan
France United
States.
United Kingdom

10 South Korea
Mexico Poland

El Salvador Russia

1 China

Poverty Bangladesh
Burkina Faso
0.1
0.1 1 10 100 1000
Energy Consumption Per Capita ('000 BTU/person)
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2;
Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars.
Updated May 2002
 The ENERGY REVOLUTION
(The Terawatt Challenge)
50 2050
50 2003 45
45 40
40 14 Terawatts
35 35
30 210 M BOE/day 30
25 30 -- 60 Terawatts
20 25 450 – 900 MBOE/day
15 20
10
5 0.5%
15
0 10
l
n

ma
, g ric
So Hyd ass
Oil

al

s
sio
Ga
Co

5
m

t
her
, w oelec
Fis
Bio

eot
r

0
ind

l
ss

ric
s
lar

al
l

ma
Source: Internatinal Energy Agency

sio
Ga
Oi

Co

ma

, w elect

her
Fis

Bio

eot
dro
n/

,g
sio

Hy

ind
Fu
The Basis of Prosperity

lar
So
20st Century = OIL
21st Century = ??
 World Energy
Millions of Barrels per Day (Oil Equivalent)

300

200

100

0
1860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100

Source: John F. Bookout (President of Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy”
International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985.
Episodes, vol 12, 257-262 (1989).
 PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES
Alternatives to Oil
TOO LITTLE
• Conservation / Efficiency -- not enough
• Hydroelectric -- not enough
• Biomass -- not enough
• Wind -- not enough
• Wave & Tide -- not enough

CHEMICAL
• Natural Gas -- sequestration?, cost?
• Clean Coal -- sequestration?, cost?

NUCLEAR
• Nuclear Fission -- radioactive waste?, terrorism?, cost?
• Nuclear Fusion -- too difficult?, cost?
• Geothermal HDR -- cost ? , enough?
• Solar terrestrial -- cost ?
• Solar power satellites -- cost ?
• Lunar Solar Power -- cost ?
165,000 TW
of sunlight
hit the earth
every day
 We posed renewables as a solution to
the energy crisis in the 1970s.

• We even created a Renewable Energy Sources

national solar energy (7.2 Quadrillion BTU)

Solar 1%

research institute, SERI, NREL

All Energy Sources
(96.4 Quadrillion BTU)
Geothermal 6%

Natural Biomass
(now NREL) dedicated Gas
24%
50%

to renewables. Petroleum
39%
Renewable
Energy
Wind 1%

8% Hydroelectric
42%
Coal
• Today, renewables Nuclear
Electric
23%
6%
are still less than 10% Total may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

of U.S. energy mix. Source: DOE EIA Annual Energy Review 2001
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/contents.html

What
Whathappened
happenedto to the
the promise
promise of
of
renewables
renewablesin
in the
theU.S.?
U.S.?
Converging Trends Will Shape Our Future
for Renewable Energy
These trends are:
• Increasing environmental awareness
• Availability of new technology options
• World energy demand growth
• Energy security risk and uncertainties
• Increasing business interest
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
i Only national laboratory dedicated to
renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D
i Research spans fundamental science to
technology solutions
i Collaboration with industry and university
partners is a hallmark
i Research programs linked to market
opportunities
 Some people have the misconception that they live
where there is little or no renewable resource.
Solar Wind
10
12
14 14
16
16

12
10
12 10
14
16
18 2

10
Megajoules/m
12 <10
10-12
12-14
14-16
16-18
20
22 24 14
18-20
26
20-22 6.0-6.5 m/s
13.4-14.6 mph
26
22-24
24
22 20 18
14
24-26 6.5-70 m/s
16 14.6-15.7 mph
26-28
>28 >7.0 m/s
15.7+ mph

Biomass Geothermal

Renewable
Renewableenergy
energycan
canbe
betapped
tappedbybysome
someof
ofthe
thepeople
peopleall
all Agricultural resources
residues

the
thetime,
time,all
allthe
thepeople
peoplesome
someofofthe
thetime,
time,but
butnot
notall
allthe
the
Wood resources
and residues
Agricultural and
Temperature <90C
Temperature >90C
o

Geopressured resources

people
peopleall
allthe
thetime…yet.
wood residues

time…yet. Low inventory

 There is good news and bad news
for the cost of renewable generation.
45 100 12
Wind PV Biomass
COE cents/kWh

80
9
30
Levelized cents/kWh 60
6
in constant $20001 40
15
3
20

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

10 70
Geothermal 60
Solar Thermal
8 Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office,
COE cents/kWh

50 http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/financial_models.html
6 40 1
These graphs are reflections of historical
4 30 cost trends NOT precise annual historical
20 data.
2 Updated: June 2002
10

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

The
Thecosts
costsof
ofrenewables
renewableshave
havesteadily
steadilydecreased
decreasedover
overthe
thelast
lastfew
few
decades,
decades,but
butsosohave
havethe
thecosts
costsof
ofother
otherenergy
energyforms...
forms...
Natural gas annual consumption is expected
to increase about 50% by 2020.

Source: Natural Gas Supply Association

Can
Canthis
thismuch
muchgas
gasbe
befound,
found,produced
producedand
anddelivered,
delivered,and
and
at
atwhat
whatcost?
cost?
Despite a lot of methane, long term, domestic
natural gas supplies are uncertain,…

US Natural Gas Supply, TCF/Year

Source: DOE NETL Strategic
Center for Natural Gas
website:
http://www.fetc.doe.gov/
…creating
…creatingcost,
cost,
price,
price,technology
technology
development
development andand
environmental
environmental
impact
impactimplications.
implications.
Natural gas has experienced considerable
price volatility, especially since deregulation.

Source: DOE EIA

 Growing numbers of energy consumers are buying
“green power” at premium prices, 2.5 /kWh (median).
Where is green power bought: Who is buying green power?
• Regulated Markets • Households
– More than 90 utilities • Small, medium, and large businesses
have, or announced, • Business “chains”
"green pricing" programs
• Business organizations
• Competitive Markets
• Health organizations
– Alternative suppliers are
• Faith-based groups
selling "green power" in
California, New England, • Colleges and universities
New Jersey, • State and municipal governments
Pennsylvania and Texas. • Federal agencies
http://www.eren.doe.gov/greenpower/home.shtml

Why:
Why:Civic
Civicpride,
pride,education,
education,environment,
environment,fuel
fuelprices,
prices,
image,
image,independence,
independence,reliability,
reliability,remote
remotepower,
power,taxes,
taxes,etc.
etc.
A modern energy consumer is emerging who is...
• Encountering global competition, so energy
cost matters,
But, is becoming increasingly…
• Digitized and round-the-clock, requiring
greater energy reliability
• Concerned about energy price volatility
• Caring about health and environment
issues
• Worried about energy security…
These
Thesefactors
factorswill
willcomplicate
complicateconsumer
consumerdecision-making,
decision-making,and
and
create
createdemands
demandsforfornew
newcustomized,
customized,high-value
high-valueenergy
energyproducts
products
and
andservices,
services,which
whichcommand
commandpremiums
premiumsand
andwhere
wherelowest
lowestcost
costper
per
KWh
KWhisn’t
isn’teverything.
everything.
There are many candidates for fossil/renewable hybrids.
Large Power • Coal-fired • Solar Central
Units Boilers Receiver
• Coal-fired • Wind Farms
Fluid Bed
• Solar Trough
• Combined

e
Cycle • Biomass

rag
Sto
• Combustion • Wind Machines
Turbine
• Diesels • Solar Dish
• Microturbines • Photovoltaics
Small Power
• Fuel Cells • Energy Efficiency
Units
Fossil-Fueled Hybrids Renewable-
Fueled
Which
Whichcombinations
combinationscan cancompete?
compete?In
Inwhich
whichmarkets?
markets?Hybrids
Hybridsmight
might
survive
survivein
inelectricity
electricitycommodities,
commodities,but
butthrive
thriveininthe
thevalue-added
value-added
markets
marketsofofthe
themodern
modernenergy
energyconsumer,
consumer,willing
willingtotopay
paypremiums.
premiums.
 Solar Radiation Processes and Conversion Paths

Selected
Photoconversion Electricity
Quantum
Processes Fuels &
Incident Chemicals
Process &
Sunlight
Space Heat
Production Thermoconversion Etc.
of Heat

Primary Conversion Useful

Processes Mechanisms/Technologies End
(including storage) Products
 Advances in Wind
• Technology advances
• New turbines
• Better blades
• Low-windspeed turbines
• Technology transfer to ocean-
based systems
 3.6MW
Prototype (offshore)

1.5MW

Commercial
 Boeing 747-200

GE WindEnergy
3.6 MW Prototype
Turbine in Spain
 Advances in Solar

• Higher efficiency cells

• New nanomaterials applications
• Predictive solid-state theory
• Advanced manufacturing techniques
• Higher component reliability
 World PV Cell/Module Production (1988-2002)
(in Megawatts)

550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Rest of World 3 4 4.7 5 4.6 4.4 5.6 6.35 9.75 9.4 18.7 20.5 23.42 32.6 40.7
Europe 6.7 7.9 10.2 13.4 16.4 16.55 21.7 20.1 18.8 30.4 33.5 40 60.66 86.38 112.05
Japan 12.8 14.2 16.8 19.9 18.8 16.7 16.5 16.4 21.2 35 49 80 128.6 171.22 254.5
United States 11.1 14.1 14.8 17.1 18.1 22.44 25.64 34.75 38.85 51 53.7 60.8 74.97 100.03 112.9
Total 33.6 40.2 46.5 55.4 57.9 60.09 69.44 77.6 88.6 125.8 154.9 201.3 287.65 390.23 520.15

From PV News, Paul Maycock, editor; yearly February editions.

Powerlight Roof Integrated PV System

Combines PV
Power with
Energy Saving
from Insulation
6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each = 20 TWe
 Grid Connect Technologies

Trough

Power Tower

Distributed Power
Systems Dish
 Key Attributes of Solar Thermal
Electric Technologies

• Proven reliability with 100 plant-years of on-grid

experience
• Demonstrated dispatchability provides high-value
power
• High annual efficiencies
• Easy integration into conventional grid
– Operates like a fossil plant
– Familiar energy conversion systems
– Hybrid solar/fossil plants
 Advances in Biomass
• Plant genomics and bioscience
• New chemical conversion technologies – the
biorefinery
• New diversified products including plastics
• Solutions to waste generation
– Forestry
– Urban
– Agriculture
 Bioenergy Options
Hydrolysis Sugars and
Lignin
Acids, enzymes
Gasification
Synthesis Fuels &
Feedstock High heat, low Gas Chemicals
production, oxygen
collection, Digestion Electricity
handling & Bio-gas
preparation Bacteria
Bio-based
Pyrolysis
Bio-Oil materials
Catalysis, heat,
pressure
Heat
Extraction Carbon-Rich
Chains
Mechanical, Biodiesel
chemical
Separation Plant
Mechanical, Products
chemical
 Biorefineries of the Future
Products
Fuels:
• Ethanol
• Renewable Diesel
• Methanol
• Hydrogen

Electricity

Heat

Chemicals:
Biomass Conversion • Plastics
• Solvents
Feedstocks Processes • Pharmaceuticals
• Chemical Intermediates
• Phenolic Compounds
•Trees •Enzymatic Fermentation • Adhesives
• Furfural
•Grasses •Gas/liquid Fermentation
• Fatty acids
•Bio-product Crops •Acid Hydrolysis/Fermentation • Acetic Acid
•Agricultural Crops •Gasification • Carbon black
•Agricultural Residues •Product Synthesis from Syn-gas • Paints
•Animal Wastes •Combustion • Dyes, Pigments, and Ink
•Municipal Solid Waste •Co-firing • Detergents
• Etc.
 Advances in Buildings

• Zero-energy buildings
• Solid state lighting, prismatic lenses
• Roofing materials – reflection &
insulation
• Combined heat and power systems,
more efficient duct systems
• Lower cost, low emissivity windows
Advances in Transportation
(FreedomCAR)
• Transition – hybrids, then fuel cells
• More efficient vehicles
• Cleaner lubricants, higher BTU fuels
• Improved passenger environment for
maximum efficiency and comfort
• Vehicle systems modeling (digital
functional vehicle)
 Hybrid Power Systems

• Hybrid power systems use local renewable resource to

provide power.
• Village hybrid power systems can range in size from
small household systems (100 Wh/day) to ones
supplying a whole area (10’s MWh/day).
• They combine many technologies to provide reliable
power that is tailored to the local resources and
community.
• Potential components include: PV, wind, micro-hydro,
river-run hydro, biomass, batteries and conventional
generators.
 Model Availability

• ViPOR: Pre-release version available from

http://analysis.nrel.gov/.
• HOMER: Fully documented version
available from www.nrel.gov/homer .
• Hybrid2: Send e-mail to Hybrid2@nrel.gov.
Provided with software, manuals and user
support.

These models were developed with

funding from the US Department of
Energy and the National Renewable
Energy Laboratory
Options Analysis using HOMER
Micro-grid System Architecture
Parallel System - Smaller Diesel
20
18
Both diesel
16
14
Wind Diesel
and
inverter
Power, kW

12
10
8
needed to
Load
6
4
cover the
2 maximum
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 load.
Hour of day
Both units
Battery SOC, %

100%
run
50%
0%
together.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of Day
 Why Go Hydrogen?
Hydrogen provides us flexibility for
use in all sectors of the economy

• Energy Security
– U.S. uses 20 million barrels of oil per day
– Hydrogen gives us feedstock diversity
– Energy can be decentralized
• Environment
– Greenhouse gas emissions can be removed from the energy
debate
– Local air quality
– Resource depletion
• Economic competitiveness
– Cost of imported oil is around $150 billion per year (balance of
payments only)
– Energy industry can be strengthened through diversification and
localization/regionalization
 Benefits of a Hydrogen Economy

“If we develop hydrogen power to its full potential, we can reduce our demand for
oil by over 11 million barrels per day by the year 2040.” - President G.W. Bush

•Energy Security
Can be produced from a variety of
Transportation
domestic sources HIGH
Biomass EFFICIENCY &
•Environmental Hydro
RELIABILITY
Wind
Criteria pollutants from mobile Solar
sources eliminated
Nuclear
Distributed
Emissions from stationary H2 Oil Generation

Sequestration
With Carbon
production sites easier to control Coal ZERO/NEAR
Greenhouse gas emissions Natural ZERO
Gas EMISSIONS
significantly reduced
•International Competitiveness
Government – sponsored R&D can
help industry compete in global
economy
48
 Hydrogen Production R&D at NREL

• Photoelectrochemical hydrogen
production from water
• Photobiological hydrogen
production using algae
• Hydrogen production from
biomass
• Solar thermal hydrogen
production
• Co-production of electricity and
hydrogen from renewable
technologies, e.g., wind -
electrolysis
Hydrogen production, delivery & storage systems allow “smart”
distributed energy resource networks to provide much of, if not all,
our electricity for clean customized energy products & services.

H2
H2
H2

-
e
-
e
-
e

-
e
e-
-
e
-
e

-
e

e-
-
e

H2/FC H2
H2
The Current Hydrogen Economy provides the
basis for production, storage and distribution of
hydrogen for use in transportation.
 We need to transition to an “investing-for-the-future”
strategy, which makes serious investments that take
us to a new energy destination that:
• Maximizes reliance on energy resources that are sustainable or
essentially inexhaustible,
• Is safe and environmentally clean enough so as not to overtax
Earth’s ability to handle wastes,
• Is as secure as possible from disruptions from acts of terrorists,
accidents and nature, and
• Is flexible and reliable enough to meet the changing needs of a
diverse population of modern energy consumers in an
affordable and predictable manner.
But
Butthe
theacid
acidtest
testis
isthat
thatwe
wecan
canconduct
conducthuman
humanactivities
activitiesat
ataa
standard
standardof
ofliving
livingequal
equalor
orbetter
betterthan
thantoday
todaywithout
without
reducing
reducingoptions
optionsandandincurring
incurringdebts
debtsfor
forfuture
futuregenerations.
generations.
We have options for making the transition:
• Supply – Inexhaustible and Sustainable
–Shift balance of fossil, nuclear and renewable portfolio toward nuclear and
renewable?
–Maximize efficiency of energy production and use?
• Environment – Reduce Wastes
–Mitigate the environmental consequences of fossil and nuclear wastes?
–Maximize energy efficiency and use of renewables?
• Energy Security – Localize and Distribute Risk
–Maximize use of indigenous resources, like renewables, coal and nuclear?
–Move from large interdependent, geographically widespread energy
infrastructures to distributed networks, especially those not dependent on
delivered fuel infrastructures?
• Energy Services – Customize and Stabilize
–Move to distributed energy systems to provide customized, on-site services?
–Maximize energy efficiency and renewables to reduce energy costs and protect
against price volatility?
So
Sowhich
whichisisititto
tobe:
be:“borrowing-from-the-future”
“borrowing-from-the-future”or
or“investing-for-
“investing-for-
the-future?”
the-future?”
 We must develop a new mindset for moving
forward.
• Old Mindset is like driving with the brakes on, while
looking in the rearview mirror:
– Protect the existing assets, infrastructures and practices
– Force-fit the new technologies and practices overly
cautiously into the existing paradigm.
• New Mindset is like driving knowing where you’re going:
– Focus on the new destination, and develop the
technologies, policies and market structures to get there.
– Use the existing assets, infrastructures and practices to
support the transition.

We
We have
have aa choice.
choice. Which
Which will
will itit be:
be:
“borrowing-from-the-future,”
“borrowing-from-the-future,” or or
“investing-for-the-future?”
“investing-for-the-future?”
 IEEE 1547 Series of
Interconnection Standards
Today’s . . Tomorrow’s . .
Electricity Choices Power park

e-

Fuel Cell

Hydrogen
Wind Storage Remote
Farms Industrial DG Loads

Fuel Cell
Rooftop
Photovoltaics e- SMES

Smart
Substation

Load as a
resource Combined Heat and
Power
 Why DER?

Grid Ancillary Services

-e
Bulk Power

-e
Power Quality

-e
Remote Power

e-
-e
-e

e-
Peaker and
Energy Management Reliability
Base-load, and
and Sell to Grid Combined Heat and Power
 Opportunities and Benefits

Potential Consumer Benefits Potential Supplier Benefits

• Clean energy • Reduced electric line loss
• Lower cost electricity • Reduced T&D congestion
• Reduced price volatility • Grid investment deferment and
improved grid asset utilization
• Greater reliability and power
quality • Improved grid reliability
• Energy and load management • Ancillary services, e.g., voltage
• Combined Heat and Power support and stability, VARs,
contingency reserves, and
black start capability
è Greater flexibility and energy securityç
Proven
Proventechnologies,
technologies,customer
customerchoice,
choice,open
openmarket
marketaccess,
access,and
and
easy
easyinterconnection
interconnectionis
isrequired
requiredto
toachieve
achievethese
thesebenefits
benefits
4.0 INTERCONNECTION TECHNICAL
SPECIFICATIONS AND REQUIREMENTS

4.1 General Requirements

– Voltage Regulation – Inadvertent Energizing of
– Integration with Area the Area EPS
EPS Grounding – Monitoring Provisions
– Synchronization – Isolation Device
– DR on Secondary Grid – Interconnect Integrity
and Spot Networks
4.0 Interconnection Technical Specifications and Requirements (cont’d)

4.2 Response to Area EPS

Abnormal Conditions

– Area EPS Faults – Frequency

– AREA EPS Reclosing – Loss of
Coordination Synchronism
– Voltage – Reconnection to Area
EPS
4.0 Interconnection Technical Specifications and Requirements (end)

4.3 Power Quality

– Limitation of DC Injection
– Limitation of Voltage Flicker Induced
by the DR
– Harmonics

4.4 Islanding
– Unintentional Islanding
– Intentional Islanding