In the aftermath of Copenhagen

Reimund Schwarze
Panel presentation at the IGEL conference workshop 2010 session: The Future of Carbon

Content
1. International Climate Negotiations 2. The Copenhagen Accord

3. Pledges by developed and developing countries

4. Success or failure?

5. Events of the year

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International Climate Negotiations

1. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (Art. 2)

Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (Art. 3)

194 signatories, Organ: Conference of the Parties (COP)

2. Kyoto-Protocol

Legally binding commitments of developed countries (Annex B) to emissions reductions of 6 GHGs until 2012, marked-based instruments (IET, CDM, JI)
190 signatories, Organ: COP serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP)

3. Bali-Roadmap
Ad hoc Working Group Long Term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) Ad hoc Working Group Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)

4. Gleneagles-Processes (G8+x)

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Heiligendamm, Toyaku, LAquila,

The Copenhagen Accord

1. 2 C-goal 2. Deep cuts in global emissions "as soon as possible"

3. Voluntary commitments to emissions targets for 2020 in developed countries (Annex I)

4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in developing countries (Non-Annex I)
Domestic measurement, reporting and verification (mrv), if not internationally funded

Reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)

5. Scaled up, new and additional funding

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$30 billion from 2010-2012, $100 billion per year by 2020 Copenhagen Green Climate Fund/High-Level Panel

Developed countries pledges

Kyoto Target Aired 2020 reduction Copenhagen Accord (as Annex I country (baseyear 1990) target before Copenhagen of 2/4/2010) Copenhagen Accord (baseyear 1990)

Australia Canada Croatia EU27 Iceland Japan

+8% -6% -5% -8% +10% -6%

5-15-25% below 2000 5-15-25% below 2000 20% below 2006 6% above 1990 20-30% below 1990 15% below 1990 25% below 1990 17% below 2005 5% below 1990 20-30% below 1990 30% below 1990 25% below 1990

-2 to -22% 3% +6% -20 to -30% -30% -25%

New Zealand
Norway Russian Fed. Switzerland

0%
+1% 0% -8%

10-20% below 1990

30-40% below 1990 10-25% below 1990 20-30% below 1990

10-20% below 1990

30-40% below 1990 15-25% below 1990

-10 to -20%
-30 to -40% -15 to -25% -20 to -30%

Ukraine
USA

0%
-7%

20% below 1990

17-20% below 2005 17% below 2005

-20%
-3%

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Developing countries pledges

Non Annex I country Brazil China Copenhagen Accord (as of 2/4/2010) 36.1-38.9% below BAU 40-45% below 2005 per unit GDP

Costa Rica
India

significant deviation from BAU; long-term carbon neutrality

20-25% below 2005 per unit GDP

Indonesia
Maldives

26-41% below BAU

100%

Mexico
South Korea Singapore South Africa

30% below BAU

30% below BAU 16% below BAU 34% below BAU

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EU 27
Inadequate

Medium Sufficient Role model

EU27s low ambition target of 20% below 1990 would not meet the proposed long-term target of 80-95% below 1990 by 2050
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Developed countries aggregate

Developed countries aggregate reductions 7-14% below 1990 levels by 2020 does not meet 25-40% range consistent with lowest stabilization scenario in IPCC
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Russian Federation

Surplus emission allowances from Kyoto period for all developed countries estimated to be 9 -11 GtCO2eq
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India

Target of 20 to 25% below 2005 emissions per unit GDP equivalent to business as usual
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China

Target of 40 to 45% below 2005 emissions per unit GDP equivalent to business as usual
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Brazil

Roughly half of emissions from forestry Reduction of 36.1-38.9% below BAU, majority from reduction in deforestation
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Can the 2 C-goal be achieved?

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Source: M. Meinshausen, www.primap.org

Summing up
1. Copenhagen Accord goal of limiting warming to below 2C is not consistent with current 2020 emission reduction targets 2. Developed country aggregate does not meet 25-40% below 1990 range consistent with lowest stabilization scenario in IPCC 3. Surplus emission allowances and forestry accounting can significantly impact the functioning of global emissions trading 4. To achieve stated Copenhagen Accord goal, countries should adopt longer term emission reduction goals (at least 50% below 1990 globally by 2050)
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Success or failure?
Important step ahead: Defining the meaning of Art. 2 UNFCCC (2C-goal) First time all major emitters involved

but major weaknesses: Purely political decision, not legally binding Voluntary pledge and review system Lacking verification for unilateral activities in developing countries Missing linkages to global emission trading Missing long-term targets (2050), no peaking year: inconsistent with 2C goal!
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OUT LOOK: Events of the year

9.- 11. Apr, Bonn, Climate talks (procedural aspects)
2.- 4. May, Bonn, Petersberg Conference, (Meeting of environmental ministers of 50 nations; chaired by Merkel and Caldern) 31. May - 11. Jun, Bonn (subsidiary bodies)

29. Nov - 10. Dec, Mexico City, COP16 & CMP 6

TIME TO ACT DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

00:00:00:00
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