THE LOOMING GLOBAL WATER CRISIS (Happy World Wuddah Day!!

IGEL 3/22/2011
Robert Giegengack Earth & Environmental Science gieg@sas.upenn.edu

ESCALATION OF HUMAN IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT

10 billion?

Human population growth

6.8 billion

Time

2011

1 mi

1 mi

1/2 mi

6.8 x 10

6.8 billion people is not a large biomass

ESCALATION OF HUMAN IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT

Human resource use (water, energy, etc.) + disposal of waste products of that use
10 billion?

Human population growth

6.8 billion

Time

2011

ESCALATION OF HUMAN IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT

Human impact on the environment

Human resource use

10 billion?

Human population growth

6.8 billion

Time

2011

Water is moved close to the Earths surface by solar energy, gravity, and the energy of the Earths rotation

Water is moved close to the Earths surface by solar energy, gravity, and the energy of the Earths rotation

All water is recycled!

The amount of fresh water available for human use is a tiny percentage of the water on Earth

All water is recycled!

Anthropogenic modification represented by red arrows

All water is recycled!

The amount of fresh water available for human use is a tiny percentage of the water on Earth

All water is recycled!

DIRECT HUMAN WATER CONSUMPTION:

At 4 liters/person/day, the worlds human population (6.8 billion) requires 100,000,000,000 m3/yr.

Annual precipitation (rain, snow) just over over the State of Pennsylvania is 10 times that!!

DIRECT HUMAN WATER CONSUMPTION:

At 4 liters/person/day, the worlds human population (6.8 billion) requires 100,000,000,000 m3/yr.

There is a lot of water

Annual precipitation (rain, snow) just over the State of Pennsylvania is 10 times that!!

DIRECT HUMAN WATER CONSUMPTION:

At 4 liters/person/day, the worlds human population (6.8 billion) requires 100,000,000,000 m3/yr.

But it isnt uniformly distributed

Annual precipitation (rain, snow) just over the State of Pennsylvania is 10 times that!!

DIRECT HUMAN WATER CONSUMPTION:

At 4 liters/person/day, the worlds human population (6.8 billion) requires 100,000,000,000 m3/yr.

Nor is it efficiently used

Annual precipitation (rain, snow) just over the State of Pennsylvania is 10 times that!!

Trends in Global Population, Diet, Energy:

The global human population is growing The per capita water demand is growing faster than the population: # cal/person/day is rising we are all eating higher on the food chain water is used in all industrial processes domestic water use rises as the standard of living rises Energy use/person is growing faster than the population These trends will continue we are losing

Despite our brave rhetoric, we are moving rapidly away from sustainability

Worldwide, many watersheds face a supply crisis

A US example:
: The Colorado River Basin

Source of direct

contaminants

Further inputs may come from proposed development of new energy sources (uranium, oil shale)

out-of-basin transfers

McDonald, 2007

McDonald 2007

NAE, 2007

Colorado River Compact (1922) allocation: 1906-2004 mean flow: 508-yr dendrochronologically determined mean flow:

16.50 maf 15.03 maf 14.67 maf

Salton Sea

Imperial Valley

Players in the Colorado Basin:

Municipalities: Denver Las Vegas Phoenix LA-San Diego other towns Irrigation districts: Imperial Valley SW Colorado E Utah Industry: mining ore processing Ecosystem services: NPS Recreation: NPS Mexico!

The 1922 compact allocated 1.4 maf to Mexico; that commitment is rarely met

McDonald, 2007

Other river basins under stress:

Jordan Nile Tigris-Euphrates Yangtze Mekong

Beirut Litani 800 125 250 125

500 +150

Tel Aviv

+500
Amman

Jerusalem

+150

Total flow to Dead Sea: ~1800 Mm3/yr; Israel now uses ~2350

1.0 1.5

99,000 Mm3/yr to Egypt

Atbara:312,000 Mm /yr
2.3

2.8

White Nile: 26,000 Mm3/yr

Blue Nile: 67,000 Mm3/yr

1.4

Evaporation in m/yr

1.4

Area of rainfall in the TigrisEuphrates Watershed

Khabur 6% Khabur: 6%
Balikh:
0.6%

Balikh 0.6% Hit

Tigris: ~

Euphrates at Hit: Euphrates at Hit: ~33,00E0 Mcm/yr ~33,000 Mm3/yr

Kharun:

Tigris: ~44,000 Mcm/yr 3

~24,000 Mm /yr

Kharun: 24,000 Mcm/yr

Planned GAP impoundments on the upper Euphrates and Tigris

Qurna

Huwaiza

Marshlands in the lower Tigris-Euphrates watershed

Hammar

Marshland drainage projects, ~1992-1995

Glory River, or

Main Outfall Drain, or Third River, or Saddam River, or

Loyalty to the Leader Canal

Mother of Battles River Qurna Huwaiza

Hammar

SOME EXAMPLES OF PROPOSED INTERBASIN WATER TRANSFERS ON A GRAND SCALE: China Former Soviet Union Canada

THE FUTURE OF GROUND WATER The USA The Great Libyan Man-Made River

Groundwater overdraft from the Oglala Aquifer

The Great Libyan Man-Made River

Solutions:
Expand supply

Reduce demand Reform global food industry

Solutions:
Expand supply: exploit traditional sources interbasin transfers groundwater extraction desalination capture icebergs

Global growth of desalination

Antarctic Icebergs: sources of fresh water

Solutions:
Reduce demand: conserve improve irrigated agriculture apply water directly to plants avert losses (evap., leakage) reduce industrial consumption re-use grey water, raw sewage

Solutions:
Reform the global food industry: improve irrigation practices eat lower in the food chain improve food crops: select drought-resistant varieties engineer higher photosynthetic efficiency

The water crisis is more threatening to human welfare than climate change, and more immediate than the energy crisis
Climate change may contribute to the water crisis, but it is a small player

We can address the water crisis with available technology and resources