PMP Chapter 6 2004

2/12/2006
PMP
Preparation Training
Your key in Successful Project
Management
Akram Al-Najjar, PMP

Planning & Cost Control Manager
Time Management Processes
Chapter 6
Time Management
Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Akram_alnajjar@hotmail.com
Source: pmbok guide 2004 Slide 2 +20105394312
2/12/2006
AGENDA
Time Management Processes

What is Time Management?
How does the PMBOK® Guide describe
Time Management?
Discussion

Time Management
Processes required to accomplish
timely completion of the project
Activity Definition
Activity Sequencing
Activity Resource Estimating
Activity Duration Estimating
Schedule Development
Schedule Control

2/12/2006
Key Elements Of Time Management
n Estimating
n Network Analysis Techniques
n There will be questions from both of

these topics on the exam!

Estimating
n Time management involves a bottoms-up

approach. Estimate the duration of each
activity and combine that with the network
diagram to build up the schedule to determine
overall project duration.
n Top-Down estimating is not a recommended
PMI method for establishing overall project
duration. Noted/qualified exception: When
there is a limited amount of detailed
information about the project.
2/12/2006
Estimating
n Expert judgment guided by historical

information used whenever possible
n Anything less is inherently uncertain
and risky

Estimating
Quantitatively Based Durations
Example (Pipeline Construction)

200 m of pipe can be welded per day
30000 m of pipe are required
30000 m / 200 m per day = 150 days

2/12/2006
Estimating
Quantitatively Based Durations
Example (IT Y2K Planning)

1 program debugged and unit tested
per week
20 programs to be corrected
20 programs / 1 program per week =
20 weeks
Estimating
PERT Duration Calculation
Higher
Most Likely
Probability (Used in original CPM Calculations)
Of PERT Weighted Average =
Optimistic + 4 X Most Likely + Pessimistic
Occurrence ( 6 )
Beta Distribution
Lower Optimistic Pessimistic
Shorter Possible Durations Longer

2/12/2006
Calculation of PERT
PROBABILITIES
n TIME ESTIMATE
Te= a + 4b + c
6
n a = OPTIMISTIC
n b= MOST LIKEY
n c = PESSIMISTIC

Calculation of PERT PROBABILITIES continue
n TIME VARIANCE
s =c–a
V = s2
6
§ a = OPTIMISTIC
§ c = PESSIMISTIC

2/12/2006
Normal Distribution
Statistically measures variability - commonly used in quality control
-1σ +1 σ
-2 σ +2σ
-3σ T e, Project +3σ

Duration
68.26%
95.46%
99.73%
LCL UCL
Network Diagram Analysis

Critical Path Method
n Critical Path
n Early/Late Start and Finish
n Float

2/12/2006

2 Days 12 Days 5 Days
A B C
Start Finish
D E F
There are many ways to do this.

This is just one approach.
Find one you like and learn it. Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

The Forward Pass …
Early Start Early Finish

2 Days
Box Box
0 2
A Early Start Date =

0 0
Early Start Box + 1 Day
Start 6 Days
0 6 Early Finish Date =
Early Finish Box
D
2/12/2006

The Forward Pass …
Early Start = Highest of predecessor’s
Early Finish Times

0 2 2 14 14 19
A B C
0 0 19 19
Start Finish
0 6 6 13 13 16
D E F

The Backward Pass …
5 Days
14 19
Late Start Date = C 19 19
Late Start Box + 1 Day 19
14 Finish
19 19
3 Days
Late Finish Date =
13 16
Late Finish Box
F
Late Start 16 19 Late Finish
Box Box
2/12/2006

The Backward Pass …
Lowest of successor’s
Late Finish =
Late Start Times
0 2 2 14 14 19
A B C
0 2 2 14 14 19
0 0 19 19
Finish
Start
6 Days 7 Days 3 Days 19 19
0 0
0 6 6 13 13 16
D E F
3 9 9 16 16 19

FLOAT
The amount of time a task can be delayed without delaying the end date of the project.
The difference between either the Late and Early Start or the Late and Early Finish.
0 2 2 14 14 19
A B C
0 2 2 14 14 19
0 0 19 19
(0) (0) (0) Finish
Start
0 0
0 6 6 13 13 16 (0)
Float = (0) D E F
3 9 9 16 16 19
(3) (3) (3)Planning & Cost Control Manager
2/12/2006

Critical Path = The longest path through the network
= The path through the network with all tasks at 0 Float
= Start-A-B-C-Finish
0 2 2 14 14 19
A B C
0 2 2 14 14 19
0 0 19 19
(0) (0) (0) Finish
Start
0 0
0 6 6 13 13 16 (0)
Float = (0) D E F
3 9 9 16 16 19
(3) (3) (3) Planning & Cost Control Manager
PERT Calculations
-1σ +1 σ
-2 σ +2σ
-3σ Te, Project +3σ

Duration
50%
84.13%
97.73%
99.86%
Project Start Date
• Normal Distribution:
Ø 50% chance - using expected time durations ( Te, )
Ø 84%Source: - (Te , ) + 1 σ , etcSlide Planning & Cost Control Manager

chance Akram_alnajjar@hotmail.com
pmbok guide 2004 22 +20105394312
2/12/2006
PERT Example
Expected Project Duration: 12.33 days
B Standard Deviation of Critical Path: .8988

A
VARIANCE
=0.67x0.67+0.5x0.5+0.33x0.33=0.8078
C D Task
Time, Days PERT standard
Activity OptimisticMost Likely Pessimistic Expected deviation
A 2 4 6 4 .67
B 2 3 5 3.33 .5
C 4 7 10 7 1
D 4 5 6 5Akram Al-Najjar,.33
PMP.
PMBOK® Chapter 6
There are 5 major Processes:
1. Activity Definition
2. Activity Sequencing
3. Activity Resource Estimating
4. Activity Duration Estimating
5. Schedule Development
6. Schedule Control
2/12/2006
Time Management
Planning Controlling
6.1 6.2 6.3

Activity Activity Resource
Definition Sequencing Estimating
6.5 6.5
Schedule Schedule
Development Control
6.4
Activity
Duration
Estimating


2/12/2006
Activity Definition
n Identifying the specific schedule activities

that need to be performed to produce the
various project deliverables.

Activity Definition
Tools & Techniques
• Decomposition
• Templates
• Rolling Wave Planning
• Expert Judgment
• Planning Component
Inputs
• Enterprise Environmental
Factors Outputs
• Organizational Process • Activity list
Assets • Activity Attributes
• Project Scope Statement • Milestone List
• WBS • Requested Changes
• WBS Dictionary Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.
• Project Management Plan Planning & Cost Control Manager
2/12/2006
Activity Definition Inputs

n Enterprise Environmental Factors :
(Section 4.1.1.3) that can be considered include availability of project
management information systems and scheduling software tools.
n Organizational process assets (Section 4.1.1.4) contain the

existing formal and informal activity planning- related policies, procedures, and
guidelines that are considered in developing the activity defini tions. The
lessons -learned knowledge
n Project Scope Statement : The project deliverables, constraints,

and assumptions documented in the project scope statement (Secti on 5.2.3.1)
are considered explicitly during activity definition.
n WBS (Section 5.3.3.2)

n WBS Dictionary (Section 5.3.3.3)
n Project Management Plan : contains the schedule management
plan

Activity Definition Tools &

Techniques
n Decomposition – Subdividing project work packages into
smaller, more manageable components
n Template – An activity list from a previous project or an

activity list for a WBS element from the current project
n Rolling Wave Planning : is progressive detailing of the
project plan indicating that planning is an iterative and ongoing
process.
n Expert Judgment
n Planning Component
Control Account. (specific components at selected levels)
Planning Package. (a WBS component below the control
account, but above the work package.)

2/12/2006
Activity Definition Outputs
n Activity list –
A list of all the activities that will be performed on
the project and a description of each
n Activity Attributes– include the activity identifier, activity

codes, activity description, predecessor activities, successor activities,
logical relationships, leads and lags, resource requirements, imposed
dates, constraints, assumptions, person responsible and geographic
area
Milestone List : identifies all milestones and indicates whether the
milestone is mandatory (required by the contract) or optional (based
upon project requirements or historical information).
n Requested Changes : that can affect the project scope

statement and WBS.
Activity Sequencing
n Identifying and documenting

dependencies among schedule activities.

2/12/2006
Activity Sequencing
Tools & Techniques
• Precedence diagramming
method (PDM)
• Arrow diagramming
method (ADM)
• Schedule network templates
• Dependency determination
• Applying leads and lags
Inputs Outputs
• Project Scope Statement • Project Schedule network
• Activity list diagram
• Activity Attributes • Activity list (updates)
• Milestone List • Activity Attributes (updates)
• Approved Requested • Requested Change
Changes Planning & Cost Control Manager
Inputs
n Activity list (6.1.3.1)

n Activity Attributes (6.1.3.2)
n Milestone List (6.1.3.3)
n Approved Requested Changes (4.4.1.4)

2/12/2006
Tools & Techniques
n Precedence diagramming method (PDM)

n Nodes represent activities and arrows show
dependencies
A B
Start E Finish
C D
Activity Sequencing Process

Finish-to-Start – Activity A must finish before Activity B can start
, the initiation of the work of the successor depends upon the
completion of the work of the predecessor.
A B
Start-to-Start – Activity A must start before Activity B

can start , the initiation of the work of the successor
depends upon the initiation of the work of the
predecessor.
A B

2/12/2006
Activity Sequencing Process

Finish-to-Finish – Activity A must finish before Activity B can
finish , the completion of the work of the successor depends
upon the completion of the work of the predecessor.
A B
Start-to-Finish – Activity A must start before Activity B

can finish , the completion of the successor is dependent
upon the initiation of the predecessor.
A B
Tools and Techniques (cont.)

n Arrow diagramming method (ADM) –
Uses arrows to represent activities and
connecting nodes to show dependencies
Start
A
B
C
D E
Finish
n ADM uses finish-to-start dependencies only and uses

dummy activities to show logical relationships
2/12/2006
Tools & Techniques (cont.)

n Schedule Network templates – Can include an
entire project or just a portion of it (i.e., subnets
and fragnets)
n Dependency determination :
-Mandatory dependencies (Hard logic) –
Determined by the qualities of work to be done
-Discretionary dependencies (Soft logic) Defined
by the project management team
-External dependencies – Relationships between
project activities and non-project activities
n Applying Leads and Lags
Outputs
n Project Schedule network diagram –

Schematic display of project’s activities and
dependencies
n Activity list updates – Dividing or redefining

activities so that the relationships are correctly
diagrammed
n Activity Attributes (Updates)
n Requested Changes
2/12/2006
n Estimating the type and quantities

of resources (persons, equipment,
or materiel) required to perform
each schedule activity.


Tools & Techniques
• Expert judgment
• Alternatives Analysis
• Published Estimating Data
• Project Management Software
• Bottom-up Estimating
Inputs
• Enterprise Environmental Outputs
Factors • Resource requirements
• Organizational Process Assets • Activity Attributes (Updates)
• Activity List • Resource Breakdown Structure
• Activity Attributes • Resource Calendar (Updates)
• Resource Availability • Requested Changes
• Project Management Plan Planning & Cost Control Manager
2/12/2006
Inputs
n Enterprise Environmental Factors: The

Activity Resource Estimating process uses the
infrastructure resource availability information included
in enterprise environmental factors (Section4.1.1.3).
n Organizational Process Assets : provide the

policies of the performing organization regarding
staffing and the rental or purchase
n Activity List
n Activity Attributes
n Resource Availability
n Project Management Plan Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.
Tools & Techniques
n Expert judgment – Expertise, provided by any

group or individual, used to assess the inputs to this
process
n Other units within organization
n Consultants
n Professional and technical associations

n Industry groups
n Alternatives Analysis (make-or-buy decisions

regarding the resource )
n Published Estimating Data
n Project Management software
n Bottom-up Estimating
2/12/2006
Outputs
n Resource requirements – Description of the
types (e.g., skill levels) and numbers of resources
required by each element of the WBS

n Resource Breakdown Structure :(RBS) is a
hierarchical structure of the identified resources by
resource category and resource type.
n Resource Calendar (Updates)

n Requested Changes

n The process of estimating schedule activity

durations uses information on schedule
activity scope of work, required resource
types, estimated resource quantities, and
resource calendars with resource availabilities.
• Elapsed time (Delay) – Work periods between the finish

of one activity and the start of another activity

2/12/2006

Tools & Techniques
• Expert judgment
• Analogous estimating
• Parametric estimating
• Three-Point Estimates
Inputs • Reserve Analysis
• Enterprise Environmental
Factors
• Organizational Process
Assets
• Project Scope Statement Outputs
• Activity list • Activity duration estimates
• Activity Attributes • Activity Attributes (Updates)
• Activity Resource requirements
• Resource Calendar
• Project Management Plan
Risk Register Planning & Cost Control Manager
Activity Cost Estimates.
Inputs
n Enterprise Environmental Factors: One or more of the
organizations involved in the project may maintain duration
estimating databases and other historical reference data.
n Organizational Process Assets: Historical information
(Section 4.1.1.4) on the likely durations of many categories of
activities is often available.
n Project Scope Statement : The constraints and assumptions
from the project scope statement (Section 5.2.3.1) are
considered when estimating the schedule activity durations.
n Activity List
n Resource requirements – The estimated activity resource
requirements (Section 6.3.3.1) will have an effect on the
duration of the schedule activity.

2/12/2006
Inputs ( Cont.)
n Resource Calendar
n Project Management Plan
Risk Register: The risk register has information on
identified project risks that the project team considers when
producing estimates of activity durations and adjusting those
durations for risks.
Activity Cost Estimates: provide estimated resource

quantities for each schedule activity in the project activity list.

Tools & Techniques

n Expert judgment – guided by historical information
n Analogous estimates (Top-down estimating) –
Uses duration of a previous, similar activity as the basis for
the of estimate of a future activity
n Parametric Estimating: Estimating the basis for activity
durations can be quantitatively determined by multiplying the
quantity of work to be performed by the productivity rate.
n Three-Point Estimates: Most likely, Optimistic, and
Pessimistic.
n Reserve Analysis: An additional time frame, called time
reserve, contingency, or buffer, that can be added to the
activity duration or elsewhere in the schedule as recognition
of schedule risk

2/12/2006
Outputs
n Activity Duration estimates – Quantitative
assessments of the likely number of work
periods required to complete an activity
n Activity Attributes (Updates) :

The activity attributes (Section 6.1.3.2) are
updated to include the durations for each
schedule activity, the assumptions made in
developing the activity duration estimates,
and any contingency reserves.
Determining the start and finish dates

of project activities
If start and finish dates are not realistic, the project is unlikely
to be finished on schedule

2/12/2006
Tools & Techniques
• Schedule Network Analysis
• Critical Path Method
• Schedule Compression
• What-If Scenario Analysis
• Resource Leveling
• Critical Chain Method
Inputs • Project Management Software
• Organizational Process Assets • Applying Calendars
• Project Scope Statement • Adjusting Leads and Lags
• Activity List • Schedule Model
• Activity Attributes Outputs
• Project Schedule Network Diagrams • Project schedule
• Activity Resource Requirements • Schedule Model Data
• Resource Calendars • Schedule Baseline
• Activity Duration Estimates • Resource-requirement updates
• Project Management Plan • Activity Attributes (Updates)
Risk Register. • Project Calendar (Updates)
• Requested Changes
• Project Management Plan (Updates)
Inputs
n Organizational Process Assets: such as a
project calendar (a calendar of working days or shifts
that establishes dates on which schedule activities are
worked, and nonworking days on which schedule
activities are idle).
n Project Scope Statement: (Section 5.2.3.1) contains
assumptions and constraints
n Activity List
n Project Schedule Network Diagrams
n Activity Resource Requirements
n Resource Calendars
n Activity Duration Estimates
n Project Management Plan: Risk Register.
2/12/2006
Tools & Techniques
n Schedule Network Analysis It employs a schedule

model and various analytical techniques, such as critical
path method, critical chain method, what-if analysis,
and resource leveling to calculate the early and late
start and finish dates,
n Critical Path Method
n Schedule Compression :
n Crashing – Analyzing cost and schedule tradeoffs
to determine how to obtain the greatest amount
of compression for the least incremental cost
n Fast tracking – Doing activities in parallel that
would normally be done in sequence
Tools & Techniques

n What-if analysis : such as delaying a major component
delivery, extending specific engineering durations, or
introducing external factors, such as a strike or a change in
the permitting process.
n Resource-leveling (Resource-based method) – Changing

the schedule to accommodate resources
Critical Chain Method: The critical chain method adds
duration buffers that are non-work schedule activities to
maintain focus on the planned activity durations. Once the
buffer schedule activities are determined, the planned
activities are scheduled to their latest possible planned start
and finish dates. Consequently, In lieu of managing the total
float of network paths, the critical chain method focuses on
managing the buffer activity durations and the resources
applied to planned schedule activities.

2/12/2006
Tools & Techniques (con.)

n PM Software – Used to assist schedule development and
to display schedule-development outputs
n Applying Calendars: Project calendars (Section 4.1.1.4)
and resource calendars (Section 6.3.3.4) identify periods
when work is allowed.
n Adjusting Leads and Lags: Since the improper use of
leads or lags can distort the project schedule, the leads or
lags are adjusted during schedule network analysis to develop
a viable project schedule.
n Schedule Model : Schedule data and information are
compiled into the schedule model for the project. The
schedule model tool and the supporting schedule model data
are used in conjunction with manual methods or project
management software to perform schedule network analysis
to generate the project schedule.
Outputs
n Project schedule : includes at least a planned start
date and planned finish date for each schedule activity.
Project schedule network diagrams.
Bar charts.
Milestone charts.
n Schedule Model Data
n Schedule Baseline : baseline is a specific version of
the project schedule developed
n Resource Requirements (Updates)
n Project Calendar (Updates)
n Requested Changes
n Project Management Plan (Updates)
2/12/2006
Network Calculation
Start Date 6/1
6/6 6/10
B 5
6/1 6/5 6/16 6/25 6/26 6/30
6/11 6/15
A 5 5 D 10 E 5
6/1 6/5 6/6 6/15 6/16 6/25 6/26 6/30

0 0 0
C 10 Finish Date 6/30
6/6 6/15
Calculations 0
Forward Pass – Determine early start and early finish dates
Backward Pass – Determine late start and late finish dates and float
Basic Terminology
n Total float (Slack) – Amount of time an activity

can be delayed and the project finish date not be
effected
n Free Float – Amount of time an activity can be

delayed and the early start of the follow-on
activity not be effected

2/12/2006
Gantt Charts
n Bar chart – Displays activity start and

end dates, as well as expected durations
n Milestone chart – Displays scheduled

start or completion of major deliverables

Typical Gantt Chart

Activity
Task A
Task B
Task C
Task D
June July Aug Sep Oct Nov
Time Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

2/12/2006
Typical Milestone Chart

Schedule Control
Schedule control is concerned with:

n Determining the current status of the
project schedule
n Influencing the factors that create schedule
changes
n Determining that the project schedule has
changed
n Managing the actual changes as they occur.

2/12/2006
Schedule Control
Tools & Techniques
• Progress Reporting
• Schedule Change Control System
• Performance Measurement
• Project Management Software
• Variance Analysis
• Schedule Comparison Bar Charts
Outputs
• Schedule Model Data (Updates)
Inputs • Schedule Baseline (Updates)
• Schedule Management Plan • Performance Measurements
• Schedule Baseline • Recommended Corrective Actions
• Performance Reports • Organizational Process Assets (Updates)
• Approved Change Requests • Activity List (Updates)
• Activity Attributes (Updates)
• Project Management
Akram Plan PMP. )
(Updates
Al-Najjar,
Inputs
n Schedule Management Plan : (Section 4.3)
n Schedule Baseline: (Section 6.5.3.1)
n Performance Reports: (Section 10.3.3.1)
n Approved Change Requests : (Section 4.4.1.4)

2/12/2006
Tools & Techniques
n Progress Reporting: includes information such

as actual start and finish dates, and the
remaining durations for unfinished schedule
activities.
n Schedule Change Control System: includes the
paperwork, tracking systems, and approval levels
necessary for authorizing changes.
n Performance Measurement: Performance
measurement techniques produce the Schedule
Variance (SV) (Section 7.3.2.2) and Schedule
Performance Index (SPI) (Section 7.3.2.2)
n Variance Analysis: Comparing target schedule dates
with the actual/forecast start and finish dates
n Schedule Comparison Bar Charts
Outputs
n Schedule Model Data (Updates)
n Schedule Baseline (Updates)
n Performance Measurements
n Requested Changes
n Recommended Corrective Actions
n Organizational Process Assets (Updates)
n Activity List (Updates)
n Project Management Plan (Updates)

2/12/2006
Short Break
n Any questions?


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2/12/2006

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP

Time Management Processes

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Time Management Processes

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Key Elements Of Time Management

n There will be questions from both of

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

n Time management involves a bottoms-up

n Expert judgment guided by historical

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Example (Pipeline Construction)

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Example (IT Y2K Planning)

Lower Optimistic Pessimistic

Shorter Possible Durations Longer

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Calculation of PERT PROBABILITIES continue

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Statistically measures variability - commonly used in quality control

-3σ T e, Project +3σ

Network Diagram Analysis

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Network Diagram Analysis

There are many ways to do this.

Network Diagram Analysis

Early Start Early Finish

A Early Start Date =

Critical Path Method

2 Days 12 Days 5 Days

Critical Path Method

Critical Path Method

Critical Path Method

Critical Path Method

-3σ Te, Project +3σ

Ø 84%Source: - (Te , ) + 1 σ , etcSlide Planning & Cost Control Manager

B Standard Deviation of Critical Path: .8988

6.1 6.2 6.3

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

n Identifying the specific schedule activities

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Activity Definition Inputs

n Organizational process assets (Section 4.1.1.4) contain the

n Project Scope Statement : The project deliverables, constraints,

n WBS (Section 5.3.3.2)

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Activity Definition Tools &

n Template – An activity list from a previous project or an

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Activity Definition Outputs

n Activity Attributes– include the activity identifier, activity

n Requested Changes : that can affect the project scope

n Identifying and documenting

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

n Activity list (6.1.3.1)

Akram Al-Najjar, PMP.

Tools & Techniques

n Precedence diagramming method (PDM)