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2011

Relationship Between Public Opinion and Public Policy on Public Schools

QUESTION 1
1a. Between 1984 and 2004, a majority [66.6%] of Americans supported increasing federal spending on public schools.

1b. During the same 20 year period as cited above, the percentage of Americans who supported increasing federal spending on other categories of public policy issues child care, crime, financial aid for college students, and foreign aid are 55.4%, 66.9%, 49.3%, and 7.7% respectively. With the exception of the percentage of Americans in favor of increases in federal spending on crime, increased federal spending on public schools was more popular than the other 3-abovementioned public policy issues. Federal spending on crime appears to be the most popular issue with 66.9% of Americans in favor of increases in spending whereas federal spending on foreign aid turns out to be the least popular issue with only 7.7% of Americans supporting an increase.

QUESTION 2
2a. When we compare data of public opinion on spending on public schools over time, we allow ourselves to see if there has been any commendable change in opinions. In comparing the surveys carried out in 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2002, and 2004, increased federal spending on public schools reached its peak in the year 2000 with 76.1% of Americans favoring spending increases; and on the other hand, increased federal spending on public schools had the lowest support in 1984 with only 53.1% of Americans in favor

2 2b. FEDERAL SPENDING ON EDUCATION: Public Preferences and Actual Budgets

Year

% Favoring Spending Increase In This Year

Amount Budgeted The Next Spring ($ Millions) 14,057 13,388 15,538 16,235 17,138 18,738 21,184 22,869 23,853 24,709 24,664 21,698 26,637 29,752 28,766 29,362 40,103 49,505 53,112 55,650 57,179 58,429

Change From Previous Year

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

NO SURVEY CONDUCTED

53.1
NO SURVEY CONDUCTED NO SURVEY CONDUCTED NO SURVEY CONDUCTED

-669 2,150 697 903 1,600 2,446 1,685 984 856 -45 -2,966 4,939 3,115 -986 596 10,741 9,402 3,607 2,538 1,529 1,250

64.3
NO SURVEY CONDUCTED

63.2
NO SURVEY CONDUCTED

64.9
NO SURVEY CONDUCTED

69.4
NO SURVEY CONDUCTED

68.7
NO SURVEY CONDUCTED NO SURVEY CONDUCTED NO SURVEY CONDUCTED

76.1
NO SURVEY CONDUCTED

74.5
NO SURVEY CONDUCTED

75.5

3 3a. In predicting the extent that public opinion corresponds with public policy, it is helpful to assess the relationship between preferences for spending on public schools and the budget for the Department of Education. Given the fact that American democracy does a pretty good job at reflecting the Americans policy preferences [with the exception of determined minority groups and historical challenges, such as suffrage], it is reasonable to assume that the higher the percentage of Americans in favor of increased federal spending on an issue, the greater the change in the adopted budget from the previous year. More people in favor of spending increases should correlate with an adopted budget [the following spring] higher in federal spending.

3b. Federal Spending on Education: Public Preferences and Actual Budgets Change In Budget From Previous Year ($ millions)
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 40 -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 -3000 -3500
y = 224.85x - 13365

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

% Favoring Spending Increase In Corresponding Year

4 3c. The scatterplot analysis tells us that public opinion on education spending and the actual budget of the Department of Education generally correlate with one another in a direct relationship, with the exception of a few outliers (an increase in one causes an increase in the other.)

3d. According to the equation of the regression line (y = 224.85x 13365,) if 60 percent of Americans favored a spending increase, the change in the federal budget should be $125.4 million. y = change in budget; x = % in favor y = (224.85)(60) 13365 y = 13490.4 13365 y = 125.4

3e. The analysis presented by the scatterplot [above] reveals that my prediction from part 3a the higher the percentage of Americans in favor of increased federal spending on public schools each year should lead to the Department of Education with a higher budget the respective-following spring is true.

QUESTION 4
4a. The handful of states with too few respondents (50 or fewer) to yield precise estimates of public opinion is: Maine (5.7), Rhode Island (1.3), Vermont (1.6), Delaware (4.0), North Dakota (7.9), South Dakota (6.7), Mississippi (3.9), Kentucky (33.4), Oklahoma (18.5), Washington D.C. (6.5), Idaho (5.6), Montana (0.4), Nevada (10.4), new Mexico (17.7), Puerto Rico (0.4)

4b.

5 According to the data describing the relationship between state-level opinion and state-level spending on public schools, Utah is the most likely to favor an increase in federal spending on public schools, with 88.4% of residents favoring a spending increase, while Kansas is the most in favor of cutting spending on public schools, with only 48.7% [less than the majority] of residents favoring a spending increase.

6 4d. PUBLIC SCHOOLS SPENDING: Preferences of State Residents and Actual Spending % FAVORING SPENDING INCREASE 79.3 64.1 68.9 71.9 76.9 72.6 72.2 71.4 70.3 53.8 54.9 48.7 70.3 69 69.8 57 58.8 65.8 60 62.2 63.1 66.1 73.4 62.4 61.7 60.8 71 67.4 88.4 70.4 66.3 63.1 60.5 65.1 PUBLIC SCHOOLS SPENDING PER PUPIL, 2004-2005 7,066 6,261 7,504 8,067 7,730 11,572 7,207 8,028 8,944 8,798 7,972 7,706 7,605 9,815 11,267 9,329 8,662 7,717 8,282 9,448 13,800 14,119 7,159 9,260 8,115 10,552 6,729 7,267 5,257 8,891 7,560 9,005 9,744 10,255

STATE Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Florida Georgia Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Louisiana Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Nebraska New Hampshire New Jersey New York North Carolina Ohio Oregon Pennsylvania Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

7 5a. As mentioned before/generally speaking, public policy generally reflects public opinion. According to this, the scatterplot I am about to draw should look similar to the one drawn in 3b, with a positive/direct relationship: higher percentages of people favoring spending increases should correspond to more money spent on public school per pupil.

5b. Public Schools Spending: Preferences of State Residents and Actual Spending Amount of Public Schools' Spending per Pupil, 2004-2005 ($) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 30 40 50 60 70 % Favoring Spending Increase 80 90 y = -67.148x + 13185

5c. The analysis tells us that the higher the percentage of state residents in favor of increased spending on public schools, the lower the respective states actually spend on public schools with the exception of a few outliers.

8 5d. According to the equation of the regression line (y = -67.148x + 13185,) in a state where 65 percent of the residents favored an increase in spending on public schools, the amount of spending per pupil would be $8,820.38 y = amount of spending per pupil; x = % of state residents favoring an increase y = (-67.148)(65) + 13185 y = -4364.62 + 13185 y = 8820.38

5e. The analysis does not meet my expectations from part 5a. There are many possible reasons as to why this trend is so not just public opinion alone. First off, because this is a study comparing states we run into many other variables instead of dealing with public policy at the national level where issues are generally less diverse, there are many other factors that occur at the state level. According to the data, elementary-secondary revenue from federal sources is generally less than both revenue from state sources and local sources; the mechanisms used to allocate state aid have changed dramatically. There are wide variations among school districts in wealth, revenues they could generate, etc. The funding methods shifted from states providing a small amount as encouragement from local government to provide the main bulk, towards larger state support (based on varying needs of districts.) In addition to the variations among districts, it is almost impossible to make generalizations from state to state because each states constitution defines public school spending/the terms associated with it differently (ex: size or cost of living.)