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November 9, 2011
Bank of India
Performance Highlights
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 3.4 11.1 (5.1) 2QFY11 1,776 1,380 617 % chg (yoy) 7.2 12.5 (20.4)
`325 `346
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 2QFY2012, Bank of India posted a disappointing performance, with net profit declining by 20.4% yoy due to a sharp increase in provisioning expenses as the bank completed the exercise of switchover to system-based NPA recognition during 2QFY2012. Write-back of tax provisions amounting to `75cr and recognition of MAT credit entitlement worth `77cr supported bottom-line growth. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `346 Asset quality disappoints again; NIM improves post the battering in 1QFY2012: The banks business growth remained slow during the quarter, with advances declining by 0.3% qoq (up 18.1% yoy) and deposits increasing by 2.0% (up 24.1% yoy). Domestic NIM of the bank improved by 34bp qoq in 2QFY2012, following a sharp drop of 95bp qoq in 1QFY2012, to 2.8% on the back of a sharp uptick in yield on advances (up 85bp qoq) to and better yields on investments. Overall, other income performance was robust, with fee income growing by 19.0% qoq (up 8.3% yoy) during 2QFY2012. Recoveries from writtenoff accounts nearly trebled sequentially to `88cr, although on a low base. Treasury income gains also rose sharply during 2QFY2012 to `154cr (up 40.7% qoq). During 2QFY2012, overall asset quality deteriorated, with annualized slippage ratio rising sharply to 5.3% from 3.2%. During the quarter, the bank completed the exercise of switchover to system-based NPA recognition, which contributed to the substantially higher slippages. Management attributed ~58% of the slippages during 2QFY2012 to accounts worth `10lakhs and below. Outlook and Valuation: We have cut our estimates for FY2012 and FY2013 by 16.1% and 3.1%, respectively, to factor in the higher-than-expected run rate of slippages. We have kept our NIM assumption intact; however have increased the slippages estimate to 2.3% from 1.8% for FY2012. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.0x FY2013 ABV. We recommend Accumulate on the stock with a revised target price of `346, giving an upside of 6.4%.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 65.9 12.4 15.3 6.5
3m 3.0 (7.1)
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 5,756 4.7 1,741 (42.1) 2.4 33.1 9.8 1.4 0.7 14.2
FY2011 7,811 35.7 2,489 42.9 2.6 45.5 7.2 1.1 0.8 17.3
FY2012E 7,786 -0.3 2,188 (12.1) 2.1 40.0 8.1 1.1 0.6 13.0
FY2013E 9,092 16.8 3,201 46.3 2.1 58.5 5.6 1.0 0.7 16.9
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 6,886 4,886 1,843 133 24 4,982 1,904 842 687 326 154 88 274 2,746 1,194 728 467 1,552 1,154 824 151 179 397 (94) 491 (23.7) 6,634 4,596 1,641 220 177 4,793 1,841 660 550 274 110 31 246 2,501 1,105 700 405 1,396 567 388 90 89 829 311 518 37.6 3.8 6.3 12.3 (39.5) (86.6) 4.0 3.4 27.5 24.9 19.0 40.7 180.8 11.6 9.8 8.1 3.9 15.2 11.1 103.5 112.4 67.8 101.0 (52.1) (130.2) (5.1) 5,156 3,660 1,307 188 3,380 1,776 585 549 301 36 30 218 2,361 981 603 378 1,380 527 286 63 178 852 235 617 27.6 33.6 33.5 41.0 (29.3) 10,187.0 47.4 7.2 44.0 25.3 8.3 328.9 191.0 25.9 16.3 21.7 20.6 23.5 12.5 118.9 187.8 140.4 0.6 (53.4) (139.9) (20.4) -
Actual 1,904 842 2,746 1,194 1,552 1154 397 (94) 491
Estimates 1,879 671 2,550 1,168 1,382 456 925 300 625
Var (%) 1.3 25.4 7.7 2.2 12.3 153.1 (57.1) (21.4)
November 9, 2011
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Profitability ratios excluding CIR for domestic operations
November 9, 2011
3.2
0.9
5.0
6.2 4.8
10.6 18.4
10.0
71.3
71.7
20.0 10.0
2.0
2.6
33.2
32.3
28.9
30.2
(5.0)
(1.9)
(0.3)
31.3
68.0
November 9, 2011
2QFY12 1QFY12 326 154 148 88 126 842 687 274 110 147 31 98 660 550
% chg (qoq) 2QFY11 19.0 40.7 0.8 180.8 27.7 27.5 24.9 301 36 111 30 107 585 549
2-3 quarters. Provision coverage ratio (including technical write-offs) slipped by 763bp qoq to 59.1% as of 2QFY2012. The banks effective tax rates were negative during 2QFY2012 (negative 23.7% compared to 37.6% in 1QFY2012) as the bank wrote back tax provisions amounting to `75cr and recognized MAT credit entitlement worth `77cr in 1HFY2012.
2.6 1.1
2.4 0.9
2.2 0.9
2.7 1.3
41.6
47.3
61.5
44.2
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
43.5
41.6
47.3
464
2.4
Opex to average assets (%, RHS) 2.5 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.5 -
409
1.7 1.4
603 378
1,462
837
700
405
November 9, 2011
728
467
3.0 2.0
0.5
Investment arguments
Lower provisions to drive RoE
During the 2008 global meltdown, the bank faced severe asset-quality pressures and reported a slippage rate of 2.9% in FY2010 (from 1.8% in FY2009). As a result, NPA provision/assets increased to 0.7% in FY2010 from 0.3% in FY2009, in turn exerting pressure on the banks RoE. While, the bank managed to improve the slippage ratio for FY2011 to 1.7% from 2.9% in FY2010, it has again risen above 5% for 2QFY2012, primarily on account of the switchover to systembased NPA recognition system. Hence, we expect slippages to stabilize in FY2013 and aided by strong recoveries, we expect NPA provision/assets to decline to 0.5% by FY2013, leading to improvement in RoE to 16.9% by FY2013 from 14.2% in FY2010.
November 9, 2011
Earlier estimates FY2012 19.0 18.0 24.7 2.1 8.1 (13.0) 13.0 2.3 FY2013 20.0 18.0 24.0 2.1 16.9 15.0 15.0 1.8
Revised estimates FY2012 18.0 16.0 25.1 2.1 13.3 (15.0) 15.0 3.2 FY2013 19.0 18.0 24.4 2.1 13.3 14.0 14.0 2.6
600
400
200
Dec-03
Dec-10
Jul-04
Apr-06
Aug-08
Oct-02
Mar-02
Mar-09
Oct-09
Feb-05
Jul-11
Sep-05
May-03
Nov-06
November 9, 2011
May-10
Feb-12
Jun-07
Jan-08
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
November 9, 2011
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08
4,229 22.9 2,117 35.4 6,346 26.8 2,645 1.4 3,701 54.5 1,017 17.9 2,685 75.1 675 25.2 2,009 78.9
FY09
5,499 30.0 3,052 44.2 8,551 34.7 3,094 17.0 5,457 47.4 1,292 27.1 4,164 55.1 1,157 27.8 3,007 49.7
FY10
5,756 4.7 2,617 (14.3) 8,373 (2.1) 3,668 18.5 4,705 (13.8) 2,211 71.1 2,494 (40.1) 753 30.2 1,741 (42.1)
FY11
7,811 35.7 2,642 1.0 10,452 24.8 5,068 38.2 5,384 14.4 1,889 (14.6) 3,495 40.2 1,007 28.8 2,489 42.9
FY12E
7,786 (0.3) 2,994 13.3 10,780 3.1 4,786 (5.6) 5,994 11.3 3,115 64.9 2,879 (17.6) 691 24.0 2,188 (12.1)
FY13E
9,092 16.8 3,393 13.3 12,485 15.8 5,456 14.0 7,029 17.3 2,290 (26.5) 4,739 64.6 1,537 32.4 3,201 46.3
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08
526 10,063 150,012 25.1 7,172 4,946 6,110 178,830 11,742 5,976 41,803 113,476 33.6 2,426 3,407 178,830 26.3
FY09
526 12,969 189,708 26.5 9,487 6,186 6,625 225,502 8,915 12,846 52,607 142,909 25.9 2,532 5,692 225,502 26.1
FY10
526 13,704 229,762 21.1 14,079 8,320 8,590 274,982 15,603 15,628 67,080 168,491 17.9 2,352 5,829 274,982 21.9
FY11
547 16,743 298,886 30.1 12,862 9,160 12,975 351,173 21,782 15,528 85,872 213,096 26.5 2,481 12,413 351,173 27.7
FY12E
547 18,455 346,708 16.0 14,832 10,809 13,631 404,981 22,536 17,907 99,032 251,453 18.0 2,775 11,278 404,981 15.3
FY13E
547 20,988 409,115 18.0 17,451 12,862 15,522 476,486 26,592 21,068 113,159 299,230 19.0 3,167 13,269 476,486 17.7
November 9, 2011
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Ratio analysis
Y/E March NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE
2.6 0.6 2.0 0.2 2.2 1.1 3.3 1.7 1.7 0.4 1.3 22.0 27.6 2.7 0.6 2.1 0.4 2.4 1.1 3.6 1.5 2.1 0.6 1.5 19.6 29.2 2.3 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.7 0.8 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 20.4 14.2 2.5 0.6 1.9 0.1 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.8 21.8 17.3 2.1 0.8 1.2 0.1 1.3 0.7 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.6 22.5 13.0 2.1 0.5 1.5 0.0 1.6 0.7 2.3 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.7 23.3 16.9 8.5 1.9 1.2 5.7 1.5 2.5 9.8 1.4 2.2 7.2 1.1 2.1 8.1 1.1 2.3 5.6 1.0 3.2 38.2 167.8 4.0 57.2 215.2 8.0 33.1 229.4 7.0 45.5 287.1 7.0 40.0 297.0 7.5 58.5 337.7 10.5 1.7 0.5 1.6 0.4 75.6 1.7 0.4 1.8 0.3 56.1 2.9 1.3 2.9 0.7 65.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 0.3 72.2 4.0 2.0 3.2 0.7 65.0 4.5 2.0 2.6 0.5 65.0 30.6 75.6 13.0 8.2 26.8 75.3 12.1 8.3 27.8 73.3 12.0 7.9 25.4 71.3 11.4 7.8 25.1 72.5 12.0 7.9 24.4 73.1 11.8 7.6
FY08
2.7 41.7 1.3 27.6
FY09
2.8 36.2 1.5 29.2
FY10
2.4 43.8 0.7 14.2
FY11
2.6 48.5 0.8 17.3
FY12E
2.1 44.4 0.6 13.0
FY13E
2.1 43.7 0.7 16.9
November 9, 2011
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bank of India No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 9, 2011
12