Brazils F-X2 Fighter Competition

Oct 09, 2011 11:32 EDT Related Stories: Americas - Other, BAE, Britain/U.K., Budgets, EADS, Europe - France, Europe - Other, Events, Issues - International, Issues - Political, Official Reports, Other Corporation, Policy - Procurement, Pre-RFP, Rumours, Russia, Spotlight articles, Transformation This free article is a sample taken from our database of 300+ detailed analyses of defense programs and contracting trends. To see what we are already covering, check our list of Focus and Spotlight articles. For full access to the complete Defense Industry Insider knowledge base, subscribe today for less than $50 a month.

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Upgraded F-5BR (click to view full) Boeing pushes Super Hornet; Saab opens CISB in Brazil, launches Sea Gripen program; F-X2 re-launch in 2012? (Sept 30/11) Could the words Brazilian fighter begin evoking images unrelated to the Gracies? Recent boosts to Brazils defense budget could be on its way to accomplishing that, and more. While the Navy and Army are also in line for funds to replace broken-down equipment, the fighters will be a critical centerpiece of the Forca Aerea Brasileiras efforts. The 36+ aircraft buys under consideration are mostly the same set of 4+ generation fighters that were considered last time: Boeings F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, Dassaults Rafale, EADS Eurofighter, Lockheed Martins F-16 Block 60, Saabs JAS-39 Gripen NG, and Sukhois SU-35. The

Gripen, Rafale, and Super Hornet were picked as finalists, and along the way, the Brazilian competition became much more important to at least one of that trio. This free-to-view DID Spotlight article covers Brazils reborn F-X competition, adds its assessment of their offers relative strengths and weaknesses, and covers ongoing events

A Stirring Giant? F-X2: The Competition Analysis: F-X2, The Competitors Contracts and Key Events [updated] Additional Readings

A Stirring Giant?

Brazil (click to view full)

In January 2008, Brazils President Lula authorized Brazilian Air Force Commander Juniti Saito to restart the long-delayed F-X fighter replacement program. F-X2 aimed to acquire 36 next generation fighters for the Brazilian Air Force, which is currently depending on Super Tucano/ALX surveillance and light attack turboprops, AMX subsonic light fighters, modernized F-5BRs whose design dates back to the 1960s, and a squadron of 12 Mirage 2000s built in the early 1980s. A previous 2001 F-X competition was put on hold in 2003, and then canceled in February 2004 due to budget difficulties and political issues. The initial budget for the current iteration is said to be $2.2 billion, but the RFP leaves the door open for a fourfold increase over time, meaning up to 120 aircraft. To understand why, a bit of background is in order. After its existing Mirage IIIs simply wore out and had to be retired at the end of 2005, FAB Command worked out a plan to find an emergency interim replacement. The final choice was 12 second-hand French Mirage 2000Cs. The airframes selected by Brazil were produced for France between 1984 -1987, and began arriving in Brazil in 2006. Inducting 20 year old aircraft is not a long-term solution. Especially for a country that reportedly has about 37% of its 719 plane air force grounded, due to age and the toll Brazils environment takes on machines of all types. Like many of its neighbors, Brazil is also becoming more and more concerned about Hugo Chavez large arms purchases and his

aggressive activities within the region. This is especially true in Bolivia, which supplies an important percentage of Brazils natural gas. Brazil actually has a reasonably solid mid-tier to its air force. Its Brazilian-Italian AMX subsonic light attack jets and indigenous Super Tucano COIN/surveillance turboprops are quality offerings within their respective niches, and they are backed up by a small but advanced set of airborne, ground looking and maritime radar aircraft based on Embraers ERJ-145 business jets. They will be augmented by 12 refurbished P-3 Orions bought to patrol Brazils huge coast and maritime economic zone.

FAV SU-30MK2 (click to view full) </DIV< p> The high end of the FABs fighter fleet, however, is inferior even when judged by regional standards. This might not be a huge concern if its neighbors possessed only short-range or limited capability fighters. Venezuelas large defense expenditures, especially its recent purchase of long-range, 4+ generation SU-30MK2 fighters instead of more clearly defensive alternatives like the MiG-29, appear to have had the effect of triggering counter moves in several quarters. Even so, Lulas government is careful to stress that this is not about an arms race. Defense Minister Nelson Jobim reportedly said in a 2007 public speech that: Brazil has well established, peaceful relations with all South American nations one of our political priorities is economic and structural integration of the region (and in 2008) well also be strengthening our military links. [Brazil cannot] neglect its defense. Therefore, we will increase our budget outlays and investment in the army, navy and air force by more than 50 percent. [Brazil] is elaborating a national strategy defense plan that will determine each military branchs mission and the equipment it needs for its activities. According to official figures made public on Nov 4/07, Brazil requested $5 billion for its 2008 defense budget, with the possibility of raising it to $5.64 billion. In 2007, Brazils military budget was around $3.5 billion.

AMX light fighter (click to view full) President Lula da Silvas administration had larger plans than just equipment recapitalization, saying that we must overcome the lack of strategic planning and the technological dismantling of the last two decades. The new National Defence Strategy group is designed to

plan and execute the recovery of the capability of our armed forces and the technological edge we once had in certain fields. Brazil maintained an impressive niche capability during the 1970s and 1980s in areas like tank and armored vehicle design, rockets, missiles, and of course aircraft. Unfortunately, in a world divided by cold war allegiances, there was often little room for a non-aligned 3rd party exporter. While some projects like the Tucano succeeded, and others like the AMX enjoyed qualified success, many promising projects saw limited exports at best, or failed. The world is no longer divided into such camps, however, which may offer the Brazilian defense industry a second chance if it partners well and executes smartly. According to the main guidelines of the da Silvas long term strategy, Brazilian defense industry should look to become a player again in the export of missiles, aircraft and other equipment. UAVs, with their long endurance surveillance capabilities and natural connection to Brazils aviation industry, are likely to also become a priority. The overall thrust of Brazils policies is certainly clear: We must convince ourselves that we can become a world power this century, said President Lula da Silva.

Military Review, 1999 (click to view full) On the one hand, these statements remind one of the old joke that goes: Brazil is the nation of the future and always will be. On the other hand, anteing up with a 50% hike of the defense budget certainly displays seriousness, and Brazil has already set up a key partnership to develop the 5th generation ADarter short range air-air missile with South Africa. A similar deal with Israel for its Derby/Alto radar guided missile is also expected at some point, and RFPs went out for a handful of medium transport helicopters (AW EH101, Russian Mi-171V, EADS EC725 which won) and some attack helicopters (AW-TAI A129, EADS Tiger, Russian Mi-35M which won). The giant may be stirring again. A handful of fighters and helicopters, plus ships to patrol its coasts, wont exactly make anyone a world power and Brazil has an equally urgent and unfilled need for transport aircraft. Still, these buys may go a long way toward ensuring the nations ability to patrol and enforce its long borders. The right deals may also allow Brazil to re-establish its faded indigenous defense industry on the world stage. While the January 2011 suspension of the F-X2 competition is a setback for Brazilian industry, and for Brazils ability to safeguard the nations borders, it does not stop this defense industrial drive. In the air, Embraers KC-390 medium transport has become a serious

contender for global orders, even as the EC725 partnership with Eurocopter is giving Brazil much-improved helicopter manufacturing and servicing. The A-Darter missile program is ongoing, and on the ground, a major partnership with Iveco will produce hundreds of VBTP 66 wheeled armored personnel carriers. Cooperation with France will produce 5 submarines, including 1 nuclear attack sub; and a major naval tender to buy frigates, patrol vessels, and supply ships has attracted bids from Britain, Korea, France, and elsewhere.

F-X2: The Competition

Dassault Rafale: Takeoff at last? (click to view full) For this second round of the FX competition, Dassaults Rafale, Eurofighters Typhoon, Saabs JAS-39 Gripen, and Sukhois recently-unveiled SU-35 were all reported to be back in contention. All were expected to bid, and Boeing added its F/A-18E/F Block II Super Hornet. The FAB was also said to be interested in the Lockheed-Martin F-35, but the finalized nature of the Lightings industrial production partnership program was likely to keep the program from delivering the industrial offsets Brazil seeks. Meanwhile, a pair of competitors from earlier rounds faded out. Dassaults Mirage 2000 production line was closing, and Brazil did not mention the F-16 as a contender or advance Lockheed Martins F-16BR Block 70 offer to the finals. Reporter Tania Monteiro of the Brazilian newspaper O Estado de Sao Paulo writes that technology transfer will be an essential part of any deal, and quotes influential Workers Party Deputy (PT is Lulas party, Deputy = MP or Congressman) Jose Genoino as saying: France is always the better partner. Concerning Russia, everyone knows the difficulties and we dont know what is going to happen in ten years so that we will be able to guarantee our spare parts. The USA, traditionally, does not transfer technology. We want to seek the lowest price with the most technology transfer. If his assessment of Brazils priorities remains true, that country could represent a critical last chance for France to get some export momentum and success behind its Rafale, which has lost every competition it has entered thus far (Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, UAE, et. al.). To win, France will need to come up with a strong package. According to reports, the indications are that technology transfer will be more important than cost in terms of the final choice. Defence minister Nelson Jobim: Whatever the final contract it must be closely linked to national development, to help advance in the creation of a strong defense industry and therefore the technological edge we are requesting.

Analysis: F-X2, The Competitors

Gripen w. smokewinders c. Gripen International (click to view full) Some quick handicapping follows. The F-X2 finalists were Saabs JAS-39 Gripen, Frances Rafale, and Boeings F/A-18E/F Super Hornet; but the next re-run of this competition offers new possibilities. If, of course, it ever moves through to completion. JAS-39 Gripen (Saab/BAE) Saab offers strong industrial partnerships, and has a record of successful technology transfer agreements. The next-generation Gripen Demo program offers key industrial opportunities, along with a high-performance, affordable fighter. Gripens can operate from highways if need be, which gives Brazil great flexibility in deploying them. They would also give Brazils Air Force commonality with A-Darter air-air missile missile partner and political ally South Africa, which operates JAS-39C/Ds. An AESA radar developed with Selex Galileo will also be offered, leveraging that firms successful radar history with Brazils F-5BR (Grifo-F) and AMX (Scipio) fighter programs. The Raven is an unusual combination of an AESA radar that can be mechanically scanned, offering more points of failure but widening the radars scanning cone versus other competitors. These factors make Gripen a strong contender. Its F404/F414 engine offers the advantages of certain performance and a very broad customer base, but is subject to US export approvals if thats an issue for Brazil. Another potential weakness may be the fact that each plane only has one engine, since Brazil combines vast over-water areas and even vaster wilderness areas to patrol. Those requirements usually translate into a focus on range and 2-engine safety, which have worked against Gripen in other competitions. While the other 2 Brazilian finalists are both 2-engine planes, its worth noting that most of Brazils other fighters (Tucano ALX, AMX, Mirage 2000) have just one engine. The JAS-39NG reportedly ranked 1st in the FABs technical trials, had strong support from Brazilian aerospace firms, and reportedly offered a complete package worth about $6 billion (about 10 billion Reals), of which $1.5 billion was for maintenance. Saab has even begun working with a number of Brazilian firms in advance of any contracts, discussing subcontracting possibilities, and working to improve their industrial proficiency with key technologies like advanced composite materials. With both the FAB and Brazils aerospace industry reportedly leaning toward its camp, Saab may see more of an even playing field under the new administration.

Dassault Rafale (click to view full) Rafale (Dassault) Despite its past history of failure in international competitions, the Rafale has a lot of advantages in this competition. It can play the carrier-compatible card, since the NAe Sao Paulo was once FS Foch. Experience with the Mirage 2000 offers a common technological and training base; and France is seen as a good supplier who avoids political interference and, makes good on technology transfers, and Brazil is already embarked upon a broad set of major defense projects with French firms. The new RBE2-AA AESA radar being developed by Thales adds additional incentives. The one real negative is the Rafales narrow range of integrated weapons but offers of partnerships in some of those areas might serve to hit 2 targets at once by playing the tech transfer card more strongly. Since Dassault really, really needs this deal, they should be very motivated on price. If they cant make it here, they may not be able to make it anywhere. Subsequent events would bear out these advantages, but Folha de Sao Paolo reports that it was the most expensive of the 3 finalists, with a price tag of about $8.2 billion US dollars (13.3 billion Reals), plus $4 billion in maintenance contracts over the next 30 years. Dassault reportedly offered the best technology transfer package, and Defence Minister Jobim claims a subsequent $2 billion price reduction, but details remain unclear. The plane remains a strong contender, but the inability to sign a contract under President Lulas administration removes the aircrafts biggest advantage in the Brazilian competition.

F/A-18E, Parked (click to view full) F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Block II (Boeing) The Super Hornet shares the carrier-compatible card with Dassaults Rafale, but compatibility with a smaller carrier like the Sao Paolo would have to be established. Boeing also shares a key advantage with EADS Eurofighter when it comes to industrial offsets, thanks to Boeings passenger aircraft division. The Block II versions proven APG-79 AESA radar offers Brazil an attractive technology, a weaker American dollar makes American exports more affordable, and the potential to turn these planes into EA-18 electronic jamming fighters is a unique selling point for the type. On the flip side, the Super Hornet offers poorer aerodynamic performance than other competitors, falling behind in areas like maneuverability, acceleration, etc. This weakness is compounded by the fact that Super Hornets sell for about $75-90 million each, placing them above the Gripen, F-16 E/F+, and the SU-35, but below the Eurofighter. Concerns about Americas propensity to use arms export bans as a political lever add a final complication to the Super Hornets odds. After being the long-shot finalist for most of this competition, heavy lobbying by the US government and Boeing appear to have put the Super Hornet back in the running. Folha de Sao Paolo reports that Boeings package was worth $7.7 billion dollars (about 12.9 billion

reals), of which $1.9 billion was for maintenance. Rousseff has reportedly pressed Boeing to improve its indstrial participation offer. Sen. McCain reportedly pledged to get a Congressional committment that the US Congress would not block the sale or transfer of technologies, but that cannot be binding, which would leave the issue of future spare parts interference etc. as an open question. There have been reports that Rousseff is interested in moving Brazil closer to the USA in the international arena. If they are true, that could make a big difference to the Super Hornets chances. Non-finalists

RAF Typhoon & ASRAAM (click to view full) Eurofighter Typhoon (EADS/European): Technology transfer may prove to be an issue, but price was always the biggest stumbling block. Eurofighters consistently sell for $110-130 million, which doesnt square well with $2.2 billion for 36 planes. The most capable air-air choice in the group would provide unquestioned regional air superiority, but ground surveillance and strike performance is still provisional (Tranche 1 v6), or unproven (Tranche 2+). This has been fatal in competitions like Singapores, and may have been a handicap here. On the plus side, EADS Airbus offers a potent option for industrial offsets, and other EADS subsidiaries have footholds of their own. Airbus militarys A400M medium transport may create additional military interest in a long term industrial partnership, and EADS Eurocopters Cougar has just become the medium-lift mainstay of Brazils future helicopter fleet.

X-35B STOVL (click for landing) F-35 Lightning II/ F-16BR (Lockheed Martin) F-35 industrial partnership and technology transfer issues proved too difficult to overcome, so Lockheed offered an F-16BR instead. It will probably resemble the F-16E/F Block 70 variant being offered to India, with an AESA radar and built-in IRST/targeting sensors, an uprated engine, etc. Both India and Brazil are fond of Israeli avionics and weapons, so those aspects are also likely to be common to both offers. The F-16BR offers shares many of the Super Hornets perceived benefits and drawbacks: AESA radar and sensors and weaker American dollar on the plus side, poorer aerodynamic performance and distrust of America as an interfering supplier on the minus side. The F-16

cannot play the carrier-compatible card like the Super Hornet, and offers only a single-engine design. On the other hand, it does offer wide compatibility with other regional and global air forces, and its cost is significantly lower. The F-35 would have offered a clear set of performance benefits over competing aircraft. No aircraft in this group could have matched the Lightnings advanced surveillance capabilities, and surveillance is a big need in Brazil. The F-35B STOVL variant also offered Brazil the ability to operate from small, dispersed runways, and it would have been perfect for aircraft carriers like the Sao Paulo. Unfortunately, technology transfer issues were not the F-35s only problem. Other barriers to an F-35 win included limited opportunities in its industrial structure, questions surrounding air-air performance against Venezuelas SU-30MKs, the low likelihood of deliveries before 2016, its single engine design and the potential cancellation of the F-35B variant, which would be most useful to Brazil.

SU-35 (click to view full) SU-35 (Sukhoi/ Rosoboronexport) This was the aircraft Russia offered in the last round, and the design has matured into a production aircraft since then. Russian tech transfer is trusted. Lack of political interference is trusted absolutely. The aircraft itself offers an option thats better than Vnezuelas SU-30MKs, but still presents itself to the region as an equivalency move. The price will be good, and Sukhoi has some support in the air force. On the other hand, service and parts delivery are almost guaranteed to be bad. That gives the FAB real pause. One way around that is to offer licensed local production, which would also have to extend to the aircrafts NPO Saturn engines and fitted avionics, in order to solve the Russian service problem [1].

Contracts and Key Events

Training for what? (click to view full) Sept 30/11: Brazils new Defense Minister Celso Amorim says that: By the end of 2013, none of the 12 Mirage (aircraft) at the Anapolis air base will be in full flying condition. This [fighter buy] is something that is really urgent, very important. The need to defend the Amazon, the bordersWe need to have adequate combat aircraft

He reiterated Brazils position that the transfer of technology is the key sticking point, but earlier comments from Brazils government indicate that a larger sticking point may involve the parlous and unstable state of the global economy. If the EUs inability to enforce its membership terms triggers a global economic crisis, Brazil may find it difficult to field the fighters it needs. AFP | TheLocal.se (note that Saab the carmaker is not Saab aerospace). Sept 22/11: MercoPress reports that Brazilian Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota has given French President Sarkozy a possible 2012 date to resume F-X2 but that comes with a large caveat: Depending on the evolution of the global economic situation, if the crisis turns out to be less severe than some imagine, then those plans can resume next year. July 20/10: Boeing holds an industry forum in Brazil to outline opportunities available as part of the companys F/A-18 Super Hornet offering. May 24/11: Sea Gripen starts development. A Saab Group release states that Saab AB will open new UK headquarters and a new Saab Design Centre in London. The engineering center: ...will capitalise on the UKs maritime jet engineering expertise and is scheduled to open in the late Summer. Initially staffed by approximately 10 British employees, its first project will be to design the carrier-based version of the Gripen new generation multi-role fighter aircraft based on studies completed by Saab in Sweden. Sea Gripen was initially pushed for India (q.v. Dec 28/09 entry), but with Gripen out of MMRCA unless something changes, the likely target would appear to be Brazils suspended FX2 program. May 18/11: Official opening of the Swedish Brazilian centre of research and innovation (Centro de Inovacao e Pesquisa Sueco-Brasileiro, CISB) in Sao Bernardo de Campo, Brazil, which grew out of the Saab CEOs September 2010 visit to Brazil. So far, the centre has attracted over 40 partners from academia and industry, who will be active partners in the specific projects. Areas of focus will be in Transport and Logistics, Defence and Security, and Urban development with a focus on energy and the environment. Saab President & CEO Hakan Buskhe cites a coastal surveillance radar project with Atmos and a datalink development project with ION as examples, and the firm sees many opportunities in Brazil beyond the Gripen project. Civil security will get special attention, as Brazil is hosting both the FIFA World Cup and Olympic Games within the next few years. Saab Group. Feb 22/11: U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere affairs, Frank Mora, stands by the technology transfer offer made to Brazil in the event of an F/A-18 Super Hornet buy, calling it a significant technology transfer that would put Brazil at par with our close partners. The question is whether the Brazilians will consider that enough, if an when they make a decision. UPI. Feb 20/11: Agence France Presse:

Major daily O Estado de Sao Paulo cited four unnamed government ministers as saying new President Dilma Rousseff saw no climate for the acquisition in 2011, and that such a move in the midst of a $30-billion slash in the years budget would be an inconsistency. Jan 17/11: President Rousseff leaves the F-X2 competition in limbo, in light of concerns about the financing of the purchase, how much to borrow for the initial fighter purchase, and inter-agency disagreements. The exact commitment is a decision later in 2011, but no contract until 2012. In practice, however, there is no firm timeline or deadline for a decision, and domestic spending priorities loom large in Rousseffs agenda. Which makes this a de facto suspension. If it is a suspension, it leaves the situation of every contender in play. Rousseff has said she wishes to re-open the arguments between the air force (Gripen preferred) and the ministry (Rafale preferred), via an inter-ministerial group, and also wishes to open a dialogue with industry. Both of those moves would have the effect of adding weight to Saabs bid. She has also reportedly pressed Sen. John McCain [R-AZ] to secure a clear written commitment that the U.S. Congress would not veto the transfer of technology and fighter components, and has reportedly pressed Boeing to improve its industrial participation offer. There have been reports that Rousseff is interested in moving Brazil closer to the USA in the international arena. If they are true, that could make a big difference to the Super Hornets chances. Folha de Sao Paolo [in Portuguese] | Defense News | Defense Update | Flight International || Americas Society (AS-COA) | Bloomberg | BusinessWeek re: Rafale program overall | Le Figaro [in French] | Reuters | UPI.

Rafale: Takeoff? (click to view full) Dec 6/10: End of F-X2? Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva confirms that he wont sign a fighter deal before he leaves office. An excerpt published by state news agency Agencia Brasil said: Its a very big debt, its a long-term debt for Brazil. I could sign off on it and do a deal with France, but Im not going to do that A number of analysts expect his successor, former Marxist guerilla Dilma Rousseff, to cancel the program altogether. With inflation beginning to rear its head in Brazil, Brazils Finance Minister Guido Mantega is promising a program of government spending cuts, in order to help deal with it. Unfortunately, the used Mirage 2000s that Brazil bought are unlikely to last much beyond 2014, and French officials remain confident in public, at least. Agence France Presse | Bloomberg | DefenseWorld | Swedens The Local | Reuters || Folha de Sao Paolo [Portuguese, subscription]. Dec 1/10: Saab inaugurates a new Swedish-Brazilian research and innovation center in So Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, with a 2-day workshop. The centers main foci include aerospace, defence and urban innovation/ civil security. Saab will work in close co-operation

with local industry and universities including UFABC (Universidade Federal do ABC) and FEI (Centro Universitrio da FEI), per a 2009 bilateral Government agreement to extend innovative high technological industrial co-operation between Brazil and Sweden. Nov 3/10: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva says that: We are going to talk over the issue of the fighters me, [his successor and lieutenant Dilma Rousseff] and [Defense Minister Nelson] Jobim. The clear implication is that Roussefs win will lead to Brazil confirming Lulas preevaluation choice, and picking the Rafale. Agence France Presse. April 7/10: AFP reports that Brazilian prosecutors have agreed to open an inquiry into the FX2 competition, with prosecutor Jose Alfredo de Paulo Silva approving the request from an opponent of Lulas, who complained that: The Brazilian government, because of external political factors, has decided to choose the Rafale, ruling out the Gripen and Super Hornet which were put forward at a lower price. That is against economic principles. A spokesman for Brazils interior ministry reportedly told AFP the prosecutor would now gather information, and decide if a civil case was possible, and said the inquiry could take up to a year. President Lulas term ends in January 2011, however, and the election is set for October 2010, so even a 6-month delay would leave the fighter decision for Lulas successor. See Jan 11/10 entry for the implications of that change. Other reports quote Defense Minister Nelson Jobim, who says that Brazils air force prefers Frances Rafale jet despite the planes higher price tag, on industrial grounds. They also indicate that Lula intends to take his proposal to the defense council in the first half of May 2010, with an official decision expected soon after. A competition that is already very political, is becoming even more so. AFP | Avio News | Expatica | Usine Nouvelle [in French]. March 19-25/10: O Estado de Sao Paolo reports that the Brazilian air force certified all 3 fighter jet finalists as meeting Brazils technical specifications, and says that relevant reports have been delivered to the defense ministry. Brazils defense ministry said it would release final details during the week of April 5/10. During a subsequent meeting with Swedens King Carl XVI Gustaf on March 25th, President Lula is quoted as saying that hes waiting for the definitive technical report on the contenders. Saab CEO Aake Svensson reportedly told the Swedish news agency TT that the Gripen had come out on top in the Brazilian air forces price and technical evaluation, but previous reports in this competition have been left unfinalized and then changed for political reasons. Agence France Presse | UPI | Chinas Peoples Daily. March 9/10: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva claims in his weekly column that his government hasnt made a decision yet on Brazils next fighter aircraft. Thats unlikely to be believed. Associated Press.

Feb 24/10: Agence France Presse says that Brazils government has officially denied a Folha de Sao Paulo report re: revised bids from the 3 competitors. If that unsourced report is accurate, the Rafales price dropped from $8.2 billion to $6.2 billion, plus another $4 billion dollars in maintenance over the next 3 decades. The JAS39NG Gripens were reportedly priced at $4.5 billion dollars plus $1.5 billion dollars in maintenance, while the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets would reportedly cost $5.7 billion plus $1.9 billion in maintenance. Jan 11/10: An unidentified Brazilian cabinet member tells Reuters that President Lula will choose the French-made Rafale jet as Brazils next-generation fighter plane, but wants to negotiate a lower price. In the background, the political clock is ticking. Lula is constitutionally required to step down after 2 terms in office, and the election to succeed him is set for October 2010. If a deal cannot be done before then, Lulas successor may have less invested in extending Brazils defense partnership with France. Given the apparent preferences within industry and the air force, that could change the likely favorite in an unfinished F-X2 competition. Jan 8/10: Brazils Estadao de Sao Paulo says that the official Air Force report has been modified. It reportedly no longer ranks the 3 finalists, treats the strengths of the Rafale and F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters as established, treats the Gripen NGs strengths as developmental, and emphasizes the advantages of a twin-engine fighter. With the F/A-18 E/F apparently a political non-starter, its expected that these changes will lower the barriers to selecting Frances Rafale. As President Lula intends. Estadao de Sao Paulo | defenseaerospace translation. Jan 5/10: The Brazilian air forces Comissao Coordenadora do Programa Aeronaves de Combate (FAB COPAC) has produced its technical evaluation, based on aircraft performance, purchase and lifetime costs, and industrial benefits. The report was ratified by FAB command on December 18th, and media reports from the Folha de Sao Paulo claim that FABs executive summary had Saabs Gripen as the preferred choice, with Boeings Super Hornet in 2nd place, and the Rafale last. The final decision will be President Lulas, but despite a MdD statement that the report has not been formally delivered, its likely to raise the political cost of going ahead with the Rafale deal. The dates involved also shed new light on the governments mid-December 2009 decision to postpone their final decision, as FAB commander Brigadier Juniti Saito was with Defense Minister Jobim on end-of-year trips to China, Ukraine, and Paris, and COPAC Brigadier Dirceu Tondolo Noro was reportedly called to join them in Paris at the last minute. Lifetime cost is a very significant issue for the FAB, which understands the inevitable swings that accompany military budgeting in a commodity-driven economy. Saab claims a price of around $70 million (currently around EUR 50 million), which would be 60-70% of the Rafales offer price, depending on which sources one believes. Dassault has sort of denied that the Rafale would be 40-50% more expensive (q.v. Nov 12/09 entry), and also contests Saabs claim that the Gripen NGs operating and maintenance cost per flight-hour would be just 25% of the twin-engine Rafales, but the French firm has not publicly offered any detailed figures. In terms of the politicians most important benchmark, the FAB also reportedly gave Gripen NG the edge in industrial benefits, siding with Brazilian industry in

believing that a project in development offers greater opportunities to expand Brazilian technologies and skills than a finished product like the Rafale. FAB release [Portuguese] | Folha de Sao Paulo [Portuguese] | Poder Aero [Portuguese or Googles amusing autotranslation] | Reuters.

Gripen Demo rollout (click to view full) Dec 28/09: Reports confirm that co-development of a carrier-capable Sea Gripen design was part of Saabs response to Indias M-MRCA fighter competition RFI, adding that Brazils future fighter requirements were also targeted. Key changes are outlined, and Gripen VP of Operational Capabilities Peter Nilsson tells StratPost that the Sea Gripen is intended for both CATOBAR (Catapult Assisted Take Off But Arrested Recovery) as well as STOBAR (Short Take Off But Arrested Recovery ski jump) operations: There will obviously be differences in the MTOW (Maximum Take-Off Weight). In a CATOBAR concept, the Sea Gripen will have a MTOW of 16,500 kilograms and a maximum landing weight of 11,500 kilograms. In a STOBAR concept it depends on the physics of the carrier. Roughly, the payload of fuel and weapons in STOBAR operations will be one-third less than the payload in CATOBAR operations. There will be no differences in bring-back capability, he says. See: StratPost | Gripen India Dec 15/09: Brazilian President Lula da Silva elects to postpone the F-X2 decision until the spring. MercoPress | UPI. Nov 18/09: A small political kerfuffle erupts as 9 ex-Assistant Secretaries of State for the Western Hemisphere send a letter to Sen. George LeMieux [R-FL] and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, asking LeMieux to join Sen. Jim DeMint [R-SC] in lifting his hold on career diplomat Thomas Shannons nomination as Ambassador to Brazil. This is a fairly common practice by both parties, and it takes only 1 senator to place a hold on key nominations. This often leaves key posts unfulfilled for long periods of time. The letter says that Boeings efforts to sell its F/A-18F to Brazil will be placed at risk by the continuing lack of an accredited ambassador. That probably wont help, but a long history of restrictive American arms export policies, and the fact that the fix appears to be in at top levels to expand defense industrial cooperation with France, are both far more consequential. Bloomberg News. Nov 12/09: Frances Dassault hits back at its competitors, sort of. Dassaults Brazilian subsidiary of the French company held a hastily called news conference in Brasilia to defend the aircraft, and sort of deny reports of a 40% higher price than the lowest bid.

Dassault executive Jean-Marc Merialdo would not offer figures, or even deny the reports directly. He did say that claims the Rafale was more expensive by such a margin were unfounded and asserted that it was comparable to other aircraft of the same class. Defense News. Oct 4/09: Brazils FAB confirms that revised bids are in from all 3 short-listed contenders, and Saabs offer clearly has significant support from the Swedish government. Gripen Internationals revised bid offers a wide range of elements, including: Full involvement in the Gripen NG development program; Complete technology transfer and national autonomy through joint development; Independence in choice of weapons and systems integration; Production in Brazil of up to 80% Gripen NG airframes, via a full Gripen NG assembly line; and Full maintenance capability in Brazil for the Gripen NGs F414 engine. That last offer would largely remove the threat of future American interference, and it would be interesting to see how Gripen International proposes to achieve it. Gripen International touts significantly lower acquisition, support and operating costs for its plane, and all this would be backed by a firm proposal for full long-term financing from the governments Swedish Export Credit Corporation. The additional offers are equally significant. Brazil will have the sales lead for Gripen NG in Latin America, with joint opportunities elsewhere. Saab would join the KC-390 program as a development and marketing partner, and Sweden will evaluate the KC-390 for its long term tactical air transport needs, as a future replacement for its recently-upgraded but aging C-130 Hercules aircraft. Saab also proposes to replace Swedens aged fleet of about 42 SK60/ Saab 105 jet trainers with Embraers Super Tucano, but it received a SKr 130 million ($18.8 million) deal in September 2009 to upgrade the planes cockpit systems, and current Swedish plans would see the SK60s continue in service until mid-2017. FAB release [in Portuguese] | Gripen International release. Sept 29/09: Embraer release [PDF format]: Regarding the article published in the Valor Econmico newspaper, dated September 28, 2009, Embraer clarifies that it is not directly participating in the selection process of the new F-X2 fighter for the Brazilian Air Force and, contrary to what was stated, it has no preference among the proposals presented. Embraer reaffirms its unconditional support of this process, always in close alignment with Brazils Aeronautics Command and the Ministry of Defense. Sept 28/09: Embraer drops a political bombshell, when Embraers Deputy Chief Executive for the defense market, Orlando Jose Ferreira Neto, tells Valor Economico that the firm was asked to advise the Air Force re: industrial proposals, and concluded that participating in the JAS-39NG Gripens development offers Brazils aerospace industry the best long-term benefits. Embraer reportedly saw the JAS-39NG as offering the opportunity to participate in the design process, rather than just producing parts. The opinion is a shock, as Frances interest in buying Embraers KC-390 transports was expected to leave Brazils top aerospace firm solidly on-side for the Rafale bid. T-1 Holdings executives (see Sept 17/09 entry) were also quoted in the article. In response, Defence Minister Jobim fires back to say that the government will make these decisions, not Embraer. Dow Jones | Defense Aerospace translations (note: links will not last)

| Valor Online, via Noticias Militares [in Portuguese] | Defesa Brazil [in Portuguese] | O Globo [in Portuguese]. Sept 17/09: Saab announces that over 20 engineers from the Brazilian firms Akaer, Friuli, Imbra Aerospace, Minoica, and Winnstal are already working on the Gripen NG project in Linkoping, Sweden, with the Swedish governments authorization. The 5 firms will participate as the T1 holding, and would be responsible for projecting and manufacturing the JAS-39BRs central and rear fuselages and wings. If all goes well, Akaer predicts that as of 2010 a team of at least 150 engineers and technicians from the T1 holding will start working in Brazil, alongside 20 Swedish specialists. Beyond Gripen production, the holdings goal is to form a new Brazilian aeronautical center in Brazil, and some technology transfer in the area of composite materials is reportedly underway already. Shaping the wing of a supersonic craft requires higher quality levels than civil applications, as well as manufacturing challenges owing to thicker and more resistant parts. Management and integration training within a holding structure of this type will also be required. Sept 15/09: Boeing kicks off a 2-day conference in Sao Paulo with 140 potential partner and supplier companies, as it reaffirms its Super Hornet offer in advance of the Sept 21/09 submission date. Bob Gower, vice president of the Boeing F/A-18E/F Program stated openly that the Super Hornets price is considerably lower than that of the Rafale. Boeings release also addresses reports of incomplete technology transfer for its product: Boeing delivered an offer to the Brazilian Air Force in August that included full technology transfer. [defined as] the option of Super Hornet co-production in Brazil and the sharing of technology that would allow Brazil to integrate its own weapons. Sept 14/09: MercoPress reports remarks by CGT union leader Dominique Richard at Dassault, who is concerned about the extent of technology transfer that may be offered. Dassault, meanwhile, denies that there will be any effect on French jobs. Richard: Theres something which troubles us in this contract and is the fact that Brazil wants to have its own military air industry and that the agreement with Dassault, the French government and the Brazilian government includes the transfer of technology. See also AnsaLatina [in Spanish]. Sept 13/09: Flight Internationals Closer political ties raise prospects for renewed alliance between Dassault and Embraer covers the market possibilities. The 2 firms have very little overlap. Dassault is strong in the high-end executive jet market, but Embraer brackets those offerings with bigger regional jets and lower-end Phenom light and very light jets. Some form of consolidation could make sense. Embraer is also looking to field competition with the Boeing 737 and Airbus A319/320 series, and could benefit from Dassaults engineering expertise. On the flip side, the KC-390 tactical transport would adds a new product category for Dassault, improving and eventually replacing the Rafale could take a wider set of resources than France and Dassault are willing to supply, and the closure of the Mirage 2000 line leaves a hole in Dassaults offerings at the light end of the spectrum.

Sept 11/09: Brazils MdD announces a Sept 21/09 deadline for Dassault to submit its Rafale business proposal, adding that the other 2 firms can also choose to submit. Defense Minister Nelson Jobim is quoted as saying [translated]: Now we have to evaluate the proposals. The commitments that President Sarkozy made will have to be confirmed by Dassaults offer. there has been a political decision of the President to expand the strategic alliance with France. for this policy decision to come into effect, it depends on Dassault and also the others, because there needs to be a comparative evaluation. The Brazilian air force (FAB) still expects to complete the technical review process by the end of October 2009, for delivery to the Minister of Defense and the President. The final decision will be the Presidents and Lula has already expressed his clear preference, unless Dassault does something to change it via adverse pricing and financing terms or issues with technology transfer. >MdD release & defence aerospace translation | Folha de Sao Paolo re: tech transfer [in Portguese]. Sept 9/09: Aftermath, and clarifications. Brazils President and MDD reaffirm their intended defense partnership with France, while the US Embassy correctly notes and Brazils MdD confirms that no formal decision has been taken yet. This is technically true, but there is no question that the Rafale has been given preferred bidder status. Negotiations would have to fail badly before any other contender had a chance. The Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paolo: The expectation is that the deal will be concluded with France, but only if it offers a lower price for the Rafale, the most expensive of the competitors, and a more favorable interest rate. According to [reporting by] Folha de Sao Paulo, Lula rushed into dinner with Sarkozy on Sunday night and skipped several steps of the selection process, which angered the Air Force Command and left Jobim in the crossfire. There are also widespread reports that Brazils unwillingness to be subject to the USAs potential ITAR restrictions and technology transfer limits was a key factor in their rejection of the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, and of Saabs JAS-39 Gripen NG (whose F414 engine is American). Brazilian Presidents Office | MDD clarification | US Embassy in Brazil | Folha de Sao Paolo & translation via defense aerospace | Gripen International confirms its continued participation. Sept 7/09: Winner! Brazils Ministerio Da Defesa announces that Dassault Aviation is now the F-X2 competitions preferred bidder, and the country will order 36 Rafales subject to further negotiations. The announcement also says that Brazil has secured French cooperation to develop Embraers KC-390 medium transport, and possibly buy 10-12 of the aircraft when theyre introduced. This sale would be Frances 1st export order for its Rafale fighter, after numerous attempts spanning more than a decade. French technology transfer across a broad range of projects was reportedly the critical factor in the deal, and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim reportedly said that the decision to begin talks with Dassault was not adopted in relation to the other two competing companies. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, meanwhile, described the move as definitively consolidating a strategic partnership we started in 2005. Brazil will now produce helicopters (EC725), submarines (nuclear-powered and diesel-

electric), transport aircraft (KC-390) and possibly fighters (Rafale) in cooperation with France, under a broad strategic partnership in the defense arena. MDD announcement [Portuguese] | Agence France Presse | France24 | CS Monitor | L.A. Times | Reuters. Sept 5/09: Brazils Defesa@NET explains the expected way forward: A Brazilian military expert who runs a specialist magazine titled Defesanet, Nelson During, told AFP that Brazils decision should be known in October. The air force should send its evaluation of the three aircraft to the government on October 23Day of the Aviator indicating its choice. Then, the National Defense Council should ratify that choice pretty quickly, he said. Sept 3/09: Brazils Defesa@NET refers to an exclusive interview that Agence France Presse conducted with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and offers key quotes: A country of Brazils importance cannot buy a product from another country without technology transfer. France has shown itself to be the most flexible country in terms of transferring technology, and evidently, this is an exceptional comparative advantage. France is the only important country ready to discuss with us technology transfers in all these domains [helicopters, submarines, and fighter jets].... Brazil has drawn up a strategic defense plan. We are convinced that because of the Amazon, our deep-water offshore oil deposits, Brazil should have a defense industry in keeping with its size and import. Aug 21/09: The Brisbane Times covers stepped up lobbying in Brazil, as the decision date is reportedly pushed from September to October 2009. Aug 6/09: Per US laws, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announces [PDF] Brazils formal request to buy up to 36 F/A-18E/F Super hornets and related equipment. The DSCA release is careful to stress that Brazil has yet to select its future fighter; the notice simply gives Brazil full assurance that all aspects of the sale can proceed smoothly if the Super Hornet is selected. This may be why no estimated cost has been given a departure from DSCA norms. Industrial offset agreements associated with this proposed sale are expected, but would be defined during negotiations between the purchaser and contractor. The equipment would include:

28 F/A-18E Super Hornet Aircraft, 8 F/A-18F Super Hornet Aircraft 76 F414-GE-400 installed engines: 72 installed, 4 spares 36 AN/APG-79 AESA Radar Systems 36 M61A2 installed 20mm Gun Systems 44 Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS) 144 LAU-127 Launchers 28 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) 28 AIM-9M Sidewinder short range air-air missiles. AIM-9M is the most common current version in US service, but not the most advanced; that distinction belongs to the AIM-9X. Brazil is collaborating with South Africa on the A-Darter SRAAM, which is intended to be an AIM-9X peer. 60 GBU-31/32 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM)

36 AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) precision glide bombs 10 AGM-88B HARM anti-radar missiles. Brazil produces its own missile, but the HARM is already integrated with the Super hornet and Brazils weapon is not. 36 AN/ASQ-228v2 Advanced Targeting Forward-Looking Infrared (ATFLIR) surveillance and targeting pods. 36 AN/ALR-67v3 Radar Warning Receivers 36 of BAEs AN/ALQ-214 Radio Frequency Countermeasures systems 40 of BAEs AN/ALE-47 Electronic Warfare Countermeasures systems 112 AN/ALE-50 Towed Decoys Plus the Joint Mission Planning System, support equipment, spare and repair parts, personnel training and training equipment, ferry and tanker support, flight test, software support, publications and technical documents, and other support.

The principal contractors were listed as:

The Boeing Company St. Louis, MO (Super Hornets, JDAM) General Electric Aircraft Engines in Lynn, MA (F414-400) Northrup Grumman Corporation El Segundo, CA (Super Hornets) Raytheon Corporation El Segundo, CA (ATFLIR pods, APG-79 radar, AGM-88, JSOW, AIM-120, AIM-9, ALE-50 towed decoys) Lockheed Martin in Bethesda, MD

Implementation of this sale will require approximately 8 contractor representatives to provide technical and logistics support in Brazil for 2 years. U.S. Government and contractor representatives will also participate in program management and technical reviews for 1-week intervals twice semi-annually. July 13/09: MercoPress reports that deals are in the works between F-X2 contenders and Brazilian companies. According to MercoPress, Boeing IDS President & CEO Jim Albaugh said agreements have been signed with 27 Brazilian companies that are capable of producing parts for the F/A-18, including Embraer. The move could reportedly translate into 5,000 jobs throughout the entire supply chain. Saab Gripens marketing chief Bob Kemp was reportedly quoted as saying that Gripen International was prepared to shift up to 50% of future production to Brazil. The report adds that Brazilian President Lula da Silva has invited French President Sarkozy to its independence day celebrations on September 7th, as a guest of honor. Da Silva reportedly said that he hopes to sign new defence accords at that time. This is taken by some as an indication that Dassaults Rafale is currently the favored candidate. France is Brazils most significant defense supplier on a broad range of fronts, however, and so the promise of new accords is not definitive. May 4/09: Brazils FAB issues a release, announcing that revised offers from the participating companies were submitted to F-X2 Project Management (GPF-X2). The companies are listed, and its the same list as the finalists and original submissions listed on Feb 2/09: Boeing, Dassault, and Saab. No Russian firms listed.

GPF-X2 has held clarification meetings held since March 2/09. On March 30/09, it began verification visits to see the firms facilities, maintenance, R&D labs, and active squadrons; and will make evaluation flights. FAB release [in Portuguese] April 6/09: Competition re-opened? Russias RIA Novosti quotes Alexander Fomin, deputy director of Russias Federal Service on Military-Technical Cooperation: We are actively participating in the Brazilian tender, which has been reopened. It involves over 100 fighter planes. Russia has made a bid in the tender with its Su-35 multirole fighter. The tender has stiff requirements, involving not only the sale, but also the transfer of technology. It is a key condition of the deal and Russia is ready to satisfy it. We are discussing with the well-known Brazilian company Embraer the transfer of technology and the construction of facilities for the future licensed production of the aircraft Fomin reportedly added that such a facility could also produce the 5th generation PAK-FA fighter being developed in conjunction with India. Experiences with the American F-22 and F-35 suggest that this would depend on the sophistication of the facilities. Stealth fighters require new equipment and techniques that go beyond normal aircraft construction standards, and a facility set up to produce even 4+ generation fighters may not be adequate. March 30/09: The Brazilian Air force announces [in Portuguese] that it is beginning visits and technical evaluation of the 3 finalists. This evaluation will include test flights, and evaluation of the bids technical, industrial and maintenance offerings. March 24/09: Dassaults acquisition of a large stake in Thales led to Thales refusal to sell Saab the RBE2-AA AESA radar beyond the Gripen Demo stage. In response, Saab and SELEX Galileo sign an agreement to develop an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar for the JAS-39NG. The arrangement is initially aimed at Brazils fighter competition, where it leverages Selex Galileos strong pedigree equipping Brazils F-5BR fighters (Grifo-F radar) and AMX light attack jets (Scipio radar). Once integrated and proven, however, the AESA upgrade would be available to any Gripen customer. Per Aviation Weeks March 10/09 report from Aero India, the radar will use a Vixen 500 AESA front end, with back end modules from the existing PS-05/A. Using those back end modules simplifies integration, and also avoids the control issues inherent in American alternatives. As it happens, the 2 firms have a long history of radar partnerships. Ericsson (now Saabs) partner on the original PS-05/A was Ferranti, which became GEC-Marconi, then BAE Systems, and now Selex Galileo. Selex was also Saabs partner in the recent MAESA R&D project. The Vixen 500 AESA radar is currently used in the USA by border surveillance aircraft, but it has yet to see service on a fighter. Koreas F/A-50 was recently barred from using the Vixen 500E, under an agreement with co-developer Lockheed Martin that did not allow the F/A-50s capabilities to surpass the ROKAFs F-16s. Saab | Gripen International. Feb 2/09: Bids are in. Boeing confirms that it has submitted a bid involving 36 F/A-18 Super Hornet Block IIs, with the APG-79 AESA radar. Gripen International confirms a bid involving 36 JAS-39NG aircraft, with longer range, AESA radars, and other enhancements. Their release adds that Brazil will have direct

involvement in the development, production and maintenance of the platform but it will also generate transfer of key technology including access to Gripen source codes. It is presumed that Dassault also submitted a 36-plane bid for its Rafale fighter. Boeing release | Gripen International release.

FAB Mirage 2000s (click to view full) November 2008: Russia and Brazil sign a series of agreements on military technology cooperation. As is customary, the agreements set out protocols for the protection of intellectual property rights and technology secrets, which make joint ventures and local production easier to manage. Source. Oct 30/08: RFP is out. Brazils FAB formally issues the RFP to the short-listed competitors. The 3 firms will have until Feb 2/09 to present their proposals, which must include operational, logistic, industrial, commercial, technical, commercial compensation (offset) and technology transfer details. FAB release [Portuguese]. Oct 1/08: Brazil has decided on its 3 finalists: Boeings F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Dassault Aviations Rafale, and Saab/BAEs JAS-39 Gripen. EADS Eurofighter, Lockheed Martins F-16BR, and Sukhois SU-35 all failed to make the cut. Brazilian FAB release [Portuguese] | Reuters | Boeing release | Gripen International release. Aug 27/08: Defesanet reports that Lockheed Martin will be offering an F-16BR for Brazils F-X2, rather than the F-35. The report adds that barriers to technology transfer of some F-35 systems played a role in this decision. Defesanet [Portuguese] | Forecast International. July 30/08: Boeing delivers a detailed proposal July 30 offering its advanced F/A-18E/F Block II Super Hornet to the Brazilian Air Force. The aircraft would be similar to the F/A18Fs ordered by the Royal Australian Air Force, and would include Raytheons APG-79 Active Electronically Scanned Array radar. Boeing release. June 12/08: Boeing (and presumably other manufacturers) receive the Brazilian RFP. The stated initial requirement is for 36 aircraft, with the potential for up to 120 aircraft. Boeing release | FAB statment (Brazilian air force). January 2008: Brazils President Lula formally authorizes Brazilian Air Force Commander Juniti Saito to restart the F-X program.

November 2007: Brazils decision to hold an F-X2 competition is announced by the Brazilian press.

Footnotes
fn1. Russian firms tend to partner due to local political necessity, or to gain technologies/ quality level they do not have, rather than as a strategic option for penetrating new markets. In Brazils case, one logical option would be a partnership with India to offer the thrustvectoring, canard-winged SU-30MKI, which is arguably superior to the SU-35. The aircraft are partly produced in India, and already have obvious slots for tech transfer because that was built into the Indian program. A 3-way deal leveraging Indias HAL, and setting up an NPO Saturn engine plant in Brazil, would have offered several benefits. It would offer India and other SU-30 customers a welcome second engine source, even as Brazils aerospace industry receives a critical additional puzzle piece in engine construction, the FAB removes the biggest historical problem with Russian planes, and Russia substantially strengthens its lobbying effort. On the avionics and electronics front, Elbit Systems avionics could be sourced from the Brazilian subsidiary AEL to offer fleet commonality, and some can be found in the SU30MKI already. Indian electronics used in the SU-30MKI would offer additional options for international cooperation and license production, alongside Israeli options that already equip Brazilian aircraft. The question is whether the Russians were ever good enough at partnering to pull something like that off, or were even willing to try.

Additional Readings

GlobalSecurity F-X BR Scramble Brazilian Air Arms. there are several. The Forca Aerea Brasileira (Air Force), Comando da Forca Aeronaval (Naval air arm, which includes the carrier Sao Paolo once Frances Foch and its A-4M Skyhawks), and the Aviacao do Exercito (Army aviation). MILAVIA Brazilian Air Force FAB Forca Aerea Brasileira MILAVIA Military Aviation Specials The Mirage 2000 in Brazil DID South Africa, Brazil to Develop A-Darter SRAAM

News, Developments & Commentary

Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Sept 9/09) The Brazilian Military Is Back, As It Fleshes Out Its Weaponry And Strategies. COHAs point of view is left-wing. Info LatAm (Sept 6/09) Carrera Armamentista en Amrica Latina: armas, armas, armas [in Spanish]

Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Sept 1/09) Embraer: Brazilian Military Industry becoming a Global Arms Merchant? COHAs point of view is left-wing. Defense News (April 16/09) IAI Casts Lot for Future Growth with Brazil. Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) looked around the world for its future growth and signed up for Brazil and India, said Yair Shamir, chairman of the diversified aerospace and defense group. Forecast International (Aug 26/08) Brazil Restarts Big-Ticket Procurement with an Eye to the Future. Sees the 2 biggest ticket items as the F-X2 program, and Brazils renewed push to design a nuclear fast attack submarine, in conjunction with the French. DID (July 2/08) Brazil Signs $1B+ Production Deal for Cougar Helicopters. The medium helicopter competition is decided. Defesanet (Nov 7/07) Lula reaparelha Foras Armadas de olho na transferncia de tecnologia [in Portugese]. Reprinted from O Estado de Sao Paolo. Mercopress, Uruguay (Nov 6/07) Brazil to boost defense industry and acquire 36 fighter jets Bloomberg (Nov 4/07) Brazil Plans to Buy $2.2 Billion of Fighter Planes, Estado Says News Ltd., Australia (Oct 29/07) Brazil boosts military spending more than 50 percent Council on Hemispheric Affairs (March 20/07) The Russian Arms Merchant raps on Latin Americas Door DID Spotlight Venezuela Buying SU-30s, Helicopters, et. al. From Russia. Covers those deals and updates. DID (Nov 22/05) F.I. Looks At Latin American Arms Market, Sees Venezuelan Buildup. Forecast International valued Venezuelas military modernization program at up to $30.7 billion through 2012, which would make the country the leading arms buyer in the region through the rest of the decade. Janes (April 15/05) Brazil: On a shoestring Frost & Sullivan (March 29/07) Future Fighter Aircraft Requirements in Emerging Economies Defesanet (Feb 24/05) Cancelado o Programa F-X BR Defesanet (Jan 7/05) F-X is Dead Long Live F-X

Contenders

Eurofighter GmbH Eurofighter Typhoon official site DID Spotlight article The UAEs F-16 Block 60 Desert Falcon Fleet. This is currently the most advanced F-16 variant in the world. Air Force Technology F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Maritime Strike Attack Aircraft, USA EA-18G Program: The USAs Electronic Growler DID FOCUS article F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. DID FOCUS article The JAS-39 Gripen: Swedens 4th Generation Wild Card DID Frances Rafale Fighters: Au Courant In Time? Air Force Technology Rafale Multi-Role Combat Fighter, France DID FOCUS -Russias SU-35: Mystery Fighter No More. The MAKS 2007 air show is Moscow appears to have clarified the issue at last its closer to Venezuelas SU30MKs than Indias more advanced SU-30MKIs. Foreign Policy Centre (Sept 27/09) The choice of French fighter aircraft in Brazil and its impact on Latin America. The FPC is based in Britain. Flight International (Sept 13/09) Closer political ties raise prospects for renewed alliance between Dassault and Embraer Flight International (March 13/07) Ultra Hornet. Describes the updates to create the Hornet Block 30/Block II; the performance enhancements are all electronic rather than aerodynamic. Interestingly, future enhancements may include a limited electronic attack function for all APG-79 AESA radars.

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