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Key Words: Farmers, Adoption, GM maize seeds, Binary Logit model, Multinomial Logit Model, Ghana
1. Introduction Maize is one of the important cereal crop produce and also staple food of great socioeconomic importance in Ghana. It is produced in most parts of the country, especially in the Guinea Savannah woodland
Prob(Y=1) = F(X)
(1)
Prob(Y=0) = 1 - F( X)
(2)
Where Yi is the observed response for the ith observation of the response variable Y. Yi = 1 for a farmer willing to adopt, and Yi = 0 for a farmer who is unwilling to adopt, and X is a set of explanatory variables such as age, sex, off-farm business, and farm size, which determine the probability of adoption of a GM
P(Y=1)/P(1-Y) = Pi/1-Pi =
'X
(3)
InPi/1-Pi=X
(4)
2.3.3 Multinomial Logit Model: The multinomial model was used to express the probability of a farmer making a particular choice of GM maize seed variety. The model is predicted on the utility that the farmer would derived by choosing a particular GM maize seed variety. A utility function is therefore assumed to exist for the farmers. The farmers are assumed to be rational in their decision making process and the utilities accruing to them are additive. The farmers decision to choose a particular GM maize seed variety is characterized as a polychotomous choice among four mutually exclusive alternatives. Let Uij denote the utility that the farmer would derive, by choosing one of the four outcomes;
(5)
Where j varies and Xij remains constant across alternatives; and eij is a random error term reflecting intrinsically random choice behaviour, measurement or specification error and unobserved attributes of the alternative outcomes. Let also Pij (j = 0, 1, 2, 3) denote the probability associated with the four choices, with j = 0 if the farmer opts for conventional maize variety (Obaatanpa), j = 1 if the farmer opts for Bt maize seeds, j = 2 if the farmer opts for Ht maize seeds and j = 3 if the farmer opts for Bt/Ht maize seeds. The multinomial logit model (Babcock et al., 1995), is given by
(6)
(7)
for j = 0 Pio is the probability of being in the reference group or group 0. In practice, when estimating the model (equation 8) the coefficients of the reference group are normalized to zero (Maddala, 1990; Greene, 1993; Kimhi, 1994). This is because the probabilities for all the choices must sum up to unity (Greene, 1993). Hence, for 4 choices only (4-1) distinct sets of parameters can be identified and estimated. The natural logarithms of the odd ratio of equations (3) and (4) give the estimating equation as (equation 8):
This denotes the relative probability of each of group 1, 2 and 3 to the probability of the reference group. The estimated coefficients for each choice therefore reflect the effects of Xi`s on the likelihood of a farmer choosing that alternative relative to the reference group. The description and measurement of the variables in equation (8) are presented in table 1 below.
Table 1: Definition, Measurements and Descriptive Statistics the of Variables Used in the Analysis Variable Definition and measurement Mean Std. dev
System of cropping (1=Monocropping 0= Otherwise) Access to agricultural extension agents (1=Yes Otherwise) Gender respondent (1=Male 0=Female) Years of growing maize 0=
In table 1, 57 percent of the respondents in the Sunyani municipality were males whilst, 45 percent belonged to farmer based organisation and 73 percent having access to extension. The number of years of education range from one to fourteen. The mean number of years of education for the respondents was nine years. The mean age of the sampled maize farmers in the Sunyani municipality was forty years. The mean number of years in cultivating maize was nine years. Forty nine percent of the sampled maize farmers belonged to a farmer based organisation whilst 71 percent having other form of business besides maize production. Farmers who owned farmland through inheritance or paid with cash were considered outright purchase whilst those sampled maize farmers who practised sharecropping (with the forestry department), renting and those who operated on family lands were considered temporary ownership. The latter is characterised by insecurity as the type of crop to grow, type of agronomic system to practise is externally determined hence the output decision cannot be the sole responsibility of the farmer. The mean number of sampled maize farmers having permanent ownership was 45%. In section 3 below presents the actual results of the study.
3. Empirical Results and Discussion 3.1 Awareness of Farmers Willingness to Adopt GM Maize Seeds Out of the 70 respondents from the Odumase community 10 farmers were aware of the GM maize
3.2 Farmers Willingness Decision Figure 1 shows the proportion of farmers that were willing to adopt the GM maize seeds after presenting them with the contingent valuation scenario. Fifty eight (58) farmers in the Odumase farming community were willing to adopt whiles 35 farmers from Nsuatare and 29 farmers from Chiraa were willing to adopt the GM maize seeds.
Figure 1: Proportions of Farmers Willing To Adopt the GM Maize Seeds Technology across the Maize Farming Communities 3.3 Binary Logit Estimates Table 2 presents the estimated coefficients of the factors that influence GM maize seed, using Binary Logit model. The log-likelihood ratio test statistic of 74.66 with a p-value 0.000 indicates the explanatory variables are collectively significant in explaining farmers willingness to adopt the GM maize seeds technology. Furthermore, the pseudo R2 of 0.43 reveals that, about 43 percent of the variation in the dependent variable (farmers willingness to adopt GM maize seeds) is explained by the explanatory variables. The Binary Logit estimates reveal that age, gender, education, experience and land tenure were the statistically significant variables that were likely to influence adoption of GM maize in the Sunyani Municipality. The age of the farmer had a negative significant effect on the willingness to adopt GM maize; however, when age was squared, the effect became positive and significant (implying that older farmers are more
Fbomember 0.3039982 0.6195898 0.624 Extcontact -0.6038403 0.6805172 0.375 0.0281516 Note: (***), (**), (*) represents 1, 5 and 10 percent significant levels respectively. 160 observations, Likelihood Ratio test statistic 2 = 74.66 (p-value=0.0000).Log likelihood = -50.378947. Pseudo-R2 = 0.4256
3.4 Significant Variables for the Multinomial Model Table 3 presents the estimated coefficients of the factors that influence the particular choice of GM maize seeds, using the Multinomial Logit regression model. Age, agesquare, gender and education were the factors likely to influence the Bt maize adoption in the Sunyani municipality in Ghana. Age positively influenced the adoption of the Bt maize whiles the other significant factors (agesquare, gender and education) had a negative influence on Bt maize adoption. Besides agesquare, all other factors (age, gender, education, experience, land tenure and extension contact) had a positive influence on the adoption of HT maize. Lastly age-square, family labour, member of farm-based organization exerted a negative influence on the adoption of Bt/Ht maize while age and extension contact positively influences the adoption of Bt/HT maize. The explanations for the positive and negative influence on the adoption of the GM maize are given in the earlier discussion with respect to the Binary Logit regression model.
p-value 0.020 0.011 0.016 0.059 0.000 0.277 0.174 0.381 0.271 0.193 0.657 0.331 0.121
Estimate -23.31388** 1.082483** -.012763* -0.412414 0.1186639* 1.014351* 1.358732*** -0.002733 -0.354333 -0.359715 -0.254423 -0.381539 1.014351*
p-value 0.022 0.038 0.051 0.390 0.085 0.068 0.007 0.972 0.490 0.509 0.103 0.454 0.072
p-value 0.003 0.004 0.004 0.230 0.596 0.155 0.133 0.731 0.656 0.888 0.005 0.017 0.009
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The Binary Logit model results reveal that, factors likely to affect the farmers willingness to adopt GM maize are Age, Age-square, Gender, Experience, Education and Land tenure were the significant factors that are likely to affect the farmers willingness decision to adopt the GM maize technology. The age of the farmer had a negative significant effect on the willingness to adopt GM maize; however, when age was squared, the effect became
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The results of The Multinomial Logit regression model reveal that age had a positive effect on the farmers' willingness to adopt Bt maize seed while gender and education variables had a negative influence on Bt maize seed adoption. Age, education, experience, land tenure and extension contact variables had a positive effect on the likely adoption of Ht maize seed variety. For Bt/Ht maize seed variety, the variables -age and extension contact had a positive effect on adoption of Bt/Ht maize seed variety, whiles the variables -FBO member and family labour had a negative effect on its likely adoption.
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Following from the result that majority of the farmers are not aware of the GM maize technology GM maize seed technology, sensitization programs should be introduced into agricultural programs to educate farmers within the various maize producing areas in Ghana before any policy on GM maize seed technology is developed and introduced. The study recommends that efforts to increase the willingness to adopt GM maize seeds for enhanced farm efficiency should focus on farmers age, gender, experience, land tenure system and education.
References Adesina, A. A., and J. Chianu, J. (2000). Econometric analysis of the determinants of adoption alley farming by farmers in the zone of southwest Cameron. Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, 80, 255-265. Adesina, A. A., and Chianu, J. (2002). Determinants Of Farmers' Adoption And Adaptation Of Alley Farming Technology In Nigeria. Agroforestry Systems. Agricultural Economics 55, 99-112. Buyinza, A. (2008). The Adoption of Alley Farming and Mucuna: Lessons for Research, Development, And Extension Agroforestry Systems. Environmental Research Journal, 56, 193 202. Fernandez-Cornejo, J., and McBride, W. D. (2002). Adoption of Bioengineered Crops, USDA. Economic Research Service, Agricultural Economics Report 810, Washington DC (USA). Gamba ,P., Ngugi,C.,Verkuiji,H., Mwangi, W., and Kiriswa. F. (2003). Wheat Farmers' Seed Management and Varietal Adoption in Kenya .Mexico, D.F.: CIMMYT, Egerton University ,Njoro,Kenya, and KARI,Nariobi. Garming, H. and Waibel, H. (2007). Do Wheat Farmers Adopt IPM For Health Reasons?-The Case Of Nicaraguan Vegetable Growers. Tropentang 2007, University of Kassel-Witzenhausen and University of Gottingen, October 19-11,2007, Conference on International Agricultural Research for Development. Gockowski, J. and Ndoumbe, M. (2004). The Adoption of Intensive Monocrop Horticulture in Southern Cameroon. Agricultural Economics, 30, 195-202, Elsevier.
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