AGRI

Market

Global Research Limited

Week : 28th Nov to 02nd Dec'2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Spices Traded Up On Fresh Buying.

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segment

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Week : 28th Nov to 02nd Dec'2011

Week : 28th Nov to 02nd Dec'2011

J E E R A(DECEMBER)

G U A R S E E D (DECEMBER)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

INDIA JEERA EDGES HIGHER ON EXTENDED BUYING

Expert
Opinion

INDIA GUAR SEED TO EXTEND UPTREND ON EXPORT DEMAND

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Jeera prices traded weak in the early part of the trading session during this week but bounced back owing to improved buying at the support levels and settled 1.69% higher on Thursday. Prices at the Spot and Futures settled 0.17% and 0.89% lower respectively on Wednesday. Sowing of Jeera in Rajasthan has gained momentum due to favorable weather condition. Sowing of Jeera has also commenced in some parts of Gujarat but it is on slow pace. Carryover stocks of Jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year. Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn. Unjha markets witnessed steady arrivals of 3,500 bags amidst offtakes of 3,000 bags on Thursday. Production of Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 22 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011September 2011 stood at 16,000 tonnes as compared to 18,800 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 15%.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guar hit the upper circuit on improved export demand at the lower levels. Sentiments are likely to remain positive for the commodity with intermittent profit booking at the higher levels. Reports of likelihood of production falling below the earlier estimates. Rising Dollar too would be beneficial on the export front. But arrivals of the new crop from Rajasthan and Haryana could pressurize the market sentiments. Uncertainties in European markets has been affecting the exports to some extent but traders expect the exports to pick up in coming weeks till year end. Low production and stock prospects could support rates in medium term though. As per First Advanced Estimates of Kharif Crop in Rajasthan, the sowing area is 29.07 lakh hectares compared to 30 lakh ha last year. Production expected at 11.37 lakh tonnes v/s 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11(Directorate of Agriculture, Rajasthan). Traders estimate that in Haryana too the sowing area has fallen to 2.15 lakh ha v/s 2.56 lakh ha last year. Production expected at 2 lakh tonnes while in Gujarat, production estimates at 0.65 lakh tonnes. Better rains in Rajasthan and Gujarat are however expected to improve productivity of the crops this year. As per APEDA, India has exported 1.45 lakh MT Guar Gum during April-June 2011 v/s 0.71 lakh MT during same period last year. Traders expect overall exports to pick up in coming months and cross the 3 lakh tonnes mark. Fresh arrivals of the new crop could pressurize the market sentiments to some extent in the short term. However, if exports pick up again, we could see some recovery from these lower levels.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Extended Buying Good Sowing Prospects

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week initially Jeera was in a bearish trend but in the later part of the week we saw good buying coming at lower levels and it erased all the previous losses and sustained above the important level of 14000. For the next week Jeera has resistance at 14380 and support at 13475.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in a bearish trend and one should use the strategy of sell on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains below the level of 13475 then we can expect the level of 13200, and if it sustains above 14380 then we can see the level of 14630.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Export Demand Low Production

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Guar seed did our target of 4600 above the level of 4540 and even closed above it. Last week Guar seed initially sustained above the important resistance of 4540 and afterwards it remained bullish throughout the week. For the next week Guar seed has resistance at 5200 and support at 4725.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 5200 we can see the level of 5280, and below 4725 it can touch the level of 4650.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 15217 14506 14103 13717 13392 13084 12373

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 6222 5538 5284 4854 4600 4170 3486

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[3]

Weekly Chart

Week : 28th Nov to 02nd Dec'2011

Week : 28th Nov to 02nd Dec'2011

SOYABEAN ( D E C E M B E R )

C H A N A (DECEMBER)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

INDIA SOYBEAN TO WEAKEN ON GLOBAL CUES

Expert
Opinion

INDIAN CHANA DECLINES ON SELLING PRESSURE

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
NCDEX December Soybean futures traded lower on account of weak overseas market as bad economic news in China for their manufactures index and higher arrivals from the fresh crop. Arrivals of Soybean in Madhya Pradesh were around 3 lakh bags (bag=100 kg). However arrivals pressure and better crop prospects of Latin American crop also is playing its role in influencing the prices. USDA's weekly export sales released on Thursday (November 17, 2011) which shows that the Weekly export sales for Soybeans came in at 746,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 751,200. This was higher than expected and included sales to China of 517,100 tonnes. Meal sales came in at 201,500 tonnes which was also higher than expected. Oil sales were just 2,100 tonnes which was well below expectations. USDA's monthly S& D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month. In Brazil sowing prospects is complete by around 78% during the current year which is higher than 76% of the normal sowing.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Chana futures witnessed mixed trades in this week but declined towards the closing the end on account of selling by the market participants and settled 2.82% down on Wednesday. There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are likely to provide support to the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 49.75 lakh hectares as on November 18th 2011 as compared to 46.33 lakh hectares in the last year same period. Sowing to Chana in Maharashtra was up by 64.6% to 3.4 lakh hectares as compared to 2.06 lakh hectares in the same period previous year. Area sown under Chana in Rajasthan till 18th November 2011 was 13.96 lakh hectares (lh) as compared to 10.06 lh in the same period previous year. There are reports of decline in the output of dry peas and Chickpeas in Canada for 2011. Chickpeas output is expected to fall by 58% to 54 MT while that of peas will fall by 33% to 2 MT (Source: Agriwatch) Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn. Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Weak Overseas Market Higher Arrivals

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week initially Soybean was in a bullish trend but later on we saw good selling coming at higher levels and it erased all the previous gains and even closed near to its weekly low. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2285 and support at 2190.

STRATEGY
For next week in Soybean one should go for buy on lower level strategy. If it sustains above the level of 2285 we can see the level of 2325 and on the downside if it sustains below 2190 level we can see Soybean at 2160 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Selling by Market Participants Tight Global Market Supplies

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Chana did our target of 3470 below the level of 3525 and even closed near to its weekly low. Last week Chana was in a continuous downtrend and we saw good selling coming at higher levels. For the next week Chana has resistance at 3420 and support at 3160.

STRATEGY
For the next week in Chana one should go for sell on higher level strategy. If it sustains below 3160 we can see the level of 3100 and on the upside if it sustains above the level of 3420 we can see Chana at 3490.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2348 2301 2270 2253 2206 2158 2111

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4066 3716 3497 3366 3147 3016 2666

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Weekly Chart

Week : 28th Nov to 02nd Dec'2011

Week : 28th Nov to 02nd Dec'2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date
20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-MAR- 12 30-APR-12 20-DEC -11 31-DEC-11

Commodity Name
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED
RAPE MUSTARD SEED

Price Unit

Previous Close
13691 34800 4812 4471 14132 3594 2249.5 643.85 3182 1201 1013 603.8 714.1 1211 1355.6 656.3

Open

High

Low
13487 34145 4660 4425 13804 3235 2236.5 638.1 3155 1137 991 589.3 697.8 1173 1330.4 600.9

Close

Qty. Traded
35259 21219 31305 1896060 112840 1130480 435150 639300 335490 226730 24870 16440 20187 14500 10598 15551

Net
9 105 -120 559 1503 -316 -9.5 -4.65 -4 -62 -10.5 -6.2 -14.6 -22 -7.1 -55.4

Open Interest
12984

Weekly TurnOver * (Rs. in Lakhs)

39,416.04

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX

RS/QUINTAL

13743 34770 4818 4460 14130 3580 2248 642.7 3185 1196 1009 606 716 1213 1365.5 659

14198 35370 4946 5109 15985 3585 2284 649.5 3210 1207 1013 608 722.5 1218 1371 596.1

13700

RS/QUINTAL

34905

9674

66,774.15

RS/QUINTAL

4692

14730

13,874.81

RS/QUINTAL

5030

107410

730,088.83

RS/QUINTAL

15635

13195

137,268.97

RS/QUINTAL

3278

173520

328,114.00

RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS RS/QUINTAL

2240

124170

91,489.09 385,596.65 95,839.56

639.2

94240

3178

111940

COTTONSEED OILCAKE

RS/QUINTAL

1139

67630

24,538.15

GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL

RS/40KGS

1002.5

5440

5,743.06

RS/QUINTAL

597.6

7665

893.91

RS./20KG

699.5

11795

19,964.92

RS/QUINTAL

1189

22480

1,469.21

RS/KG

1348.5

3297

47943.96

CARDAMOM

MCX

15-DEC-11

CARDAMOM

RS/KG

600.9

4376

7950.64

* Turnover Till Friday [6] [6] [7] [7]

Week : 28th Nov to 02nd Dec'2011

Week : 28th Nov to 02nd Dec'2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

Closing Price
13700 34905 4692 5030 15635 3278 2240 639.2 3178 1139 1002.5 597.6 699.5 1189 1348.5 600.9

% Change
0.07 0.30 -2.49 12.50 10.64 -8.79 -0.42 -0.72 -0.13 -5.16 -1.04 -1.03 -2.04 -1.82 -0.52 -8.44

Scripts

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

JEERA (DEC) PEPPER (DEC) TURMERIC (DEC) GUARSEED (DEC) GUARSGUM (DEC) CHANA (DEC) SOYBEAN (DEC) REFINED SOYA OIL (DEC) MUSTARD (DEC)
COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (DEC)

15217.00 37256.67 5338.00 6222.67 19503.33 4066.00 2348.50 665.07 3291.00 1301.00 1046.17 635.70 756.00 1431.17 589.70

14506.00 36031.67 5052.00 5538.67 17322.33 3716.00 2301.00 653.67 3236.00 1231.00 1024.17 617.00 731.30 1390.57 594.50

14103.00 35468.33 4872.00 5284.33 16478.67 3497.00 2270.50 646.43 3207.00 1185.00 1013.33 607.30 715.40 1369.53 597.70

13795.00 34806.67 4766.00 4854.67 15141.33 3366.00 2253.50 642.27 3181.00 1161.00 1002.17 598.30 706.60 1349.97 599.30

13392.00 34243.33 4586.00 4600.33 14297.67 3147.00 2223.00 635.03 3152.00 1115.00 991.33 588.60 690.70 1328.93 602.50

13084.00 33581.67 4480.00 4170.67 12960.33 3016.00 2206.00 630.87 3126.00 1091.00 980.17 579.60 681.90 1309.37 604.10

12373.00 32356.67 4194.00 3486.67 10779.33 2666.00 2158.50 619.47 3071.00 1021.00 958.17 560.90 657.20 1268.77 608.90

GUR (DEC) POTATO (MAR 20 12) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (DEC) CARDAMOM (DEC)

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity GUARSEED GUARGUM PEPPER Expiry Date 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 Closing Price 5030 15635 34905 % Change 12.50 10.64 0.30

Weekly Losers
Commodity CHANA CARDAMOM COTTON SEED OIL CAKE Expiry Date 20-DEC -11 15-DEC -11 20-DEC -11 Closing Price 3278 600.9 1139 % Change -8.79 -8.44 -5.16

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