IEA - Monthly Oil Market Report - November 2011

10 November 2011
HIGHLIGHTS
TheEurozonedebtcrisisinfluencedmarketsentimentinOctoberand
early November although ultimately fundamentals reasserted
themselves. Futures prices for benchmark crudes diverged in October,
with WTI on a solid upward trend while Brent eased. At writing, Brent
tradedaround$114/bbl,withWTIat$96/bbl.
Forecastglobaloildemandisreviseddownby70kb/dfor2011andby
20kb/d for 2012, with lowerthanexpected 3Q11 readings in the US,
China and Japan. Gasoil continues to provide the greatest impetus for
demand growth. Global oil demand is expected to rise to 89.2mb/d in
2011(+0.9mb/dyoy)andreach90.5mb/d(+1.3mb/d)in2012.
Global oil supply rose by 1.0 mb/d to 89.3 mb/d in October from
September,drivenbyrecoveringnonOPECoutput.Ayearlycomparison
shows similar growth, with OPEC supplies well above yearago levels.
NonOPEC supply growth averages 0.1 mb/d in 2011 but rebounds to
1.1mb/din2012,withstronggainsfromtheAmericas.
OPEC supply rose by 95 kb/d to 30.01 mb/d in October, with higher

output from Libya, Saudi Arabia and Angola, partially offset by lower
outputfromothermembers.ThecallonOPECcrudeandstockchange
for 2011 is largely unchanged at 30.5 mb/d, while higher nonOPEC
supplyleadstoa0.2mb/ddownwardadjustmentfor2012to30.4mb/d.
GlobalrefinerycrudethroughputsfellsharplyinSeptember,asplanned
and unplanned shutdowns amplified the normal seasonal downturn.
Followingsignificantrefineryoutagesandapparentdelaysinstartingup
new capacity in Asia, 3Q11 global runs have been lowered by 30 kb/d,
to75.5mb/d,while4Q11runsarereviseddown260kb/d,to75.1mb/d.
OECD industry oil stocks declined by 11.8mb to 2684mb in

September,ledlowerbycrude,pluslesserdeclinesinmiddledistillates
and fuel oil. Inventories stood below the fiveyear average for a third
consecutivemonth,afirstsince2004.Septemberforwarddemandcover
dropped to 57.9days, from 58.6days in August. October preliminary
datapointtoa34.3mbdrawinOECDindustrystocks.
10November2011
OMRPUBLISHINGSCHEDULE2012
Pleasefindbelowthe2012releasedatesfortheOilMarketReport:
Wednesday18January
Friday10February
Wednesday14March
Thursday12April
Friday11May
Wednesday13June
Thursday12July*
Friday10August
Wednesday12September
Friday12October**
Tuesday13November
Wednesday12December
Thisinformationisalsoavailableat:oilmarketreport.org/scheduleand
omrpublic.iea.org/schedule.
*TheOMRof12Julywillcontainprojectionsthroughend2013.
**The 2012 Edition of the MediumTerm Oil Market Report (MTOMR) will be
releasedonthesamedateastheOMRof12October2012.TheOMRofthisdate
will comprise the usual data and projections through end2013, but with heavily
abridgedtext.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1
DISTILLATES, DERIVATIVES & DOWNSIDE RISK ............................................................................................................................................ 4
DEMAND ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Global Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
OECD ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
North America................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Europe.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
The Winter That Cries Wolf for Heating Oil .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Pacific.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12
China .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Other Non-OECD .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
OPEC Crude Oil Supply ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Libyan Production Outpaces Forecast ....................................................................................................................................................... 19
Non-OPEC Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
OECD ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
North America................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Eagle Ford and Bakken Bonanza to Transform US Oil Production Outlook ............................................................................. 22
North Sea .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Revisions to IEAs Norway Field Level Data Allow for Better Forecasting ................................................................................ 24
Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Asia ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Middle East ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26
Former Soviet Union (FSU) .......................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Africa .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 27
Latin America ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
OECD STOCKS ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28
OECD Inventories at End-September and Revisions to Preliminary Data .................................................................................... 28
Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes ...................................................................................................................................... 30
OECD North America................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
OECD Europe .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
OECD Pacific.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Recent Developments in China and Singapore Stocks ................................................................................................................................. 32
PRICES .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Market Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Futures Markets .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Rescuing Commodities from Speculators? ................................................................................................................................................ 39
Spot Crude Oil Prices .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Spot Product Prices .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Refining Margins .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
End-User Product Prices in October ............................................................................................................................................................... 45
Freight ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
REFINING .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Global Refinery Throughput ............................................................................................................................................................................... 47
OECD Refinery Throughput .............................................................................................................................................................................. 48
Non-OECD Refinery Throughput .................................................................................................................................................................... 51
OECD Refinery Yields ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
TABLES ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
M ARKET O VERVIEW
I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT
DISTILLATES, DERIVATIVES & DOWNSIDE RISK
October was a better month for beleaguered OECD refiners, largely due to stronger diesel cracks. As
notedbefore,cleanmiddledistillatemarketswillremainadriverofcrudeandproductpricesinfuture
too. In the mature OECD markets, jet fuel and diesel represent the only durable source of demand
growth,albeitdriveninEuropebypreferentialdieseltaxes.Thismonthsreportalsosuggeststhatrising
lighttightoilsupplyandlogisticalbottlenecksaroundCushingare,atthemargin,boostingroadandrail
shipmentsandthusUSdieseldemand.Impendingchangesinbunkerqualitywillgenerateanewmarket
for middle distillates at fuel oils expense. In the emerging economies, rising personal mobility and
growing freight traffic are largely fuelled by diesel. And, as seen last winter, when nonoil fired power
generationbottlenecksemergeinChinaandelsewhere,industrialanddomesticconsumersturntodiesel
generatorstofillthegap.Shorttermdemandsurgesofseveralhundredthousandb/dcanresult.
Whenproducts,andcleanmiddledistillatesinparticular,areintightsupply,crudepricescanbedriven
sharply higher. Part of the 2007/early2008 crude price surge resulted from tightness in clean diesel
supplies. With over 50% of future demand growth deriving from middle distillates, refinery supply of
theseproductsmaybeasimportantasOPECquotasorupstreaminvestmentinsettingmarketdynamics.
days
OECD Middle Distillate Stocks

Days of Forward Demand
40
kb/d
3000
38
2000
Middle Distillates Driving Demand Trends

Global Y-o-Y Demand Growth
36
1000
34
32
30
28
Jan
-1000
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
-2000
2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
Mid Dist
Other oil
2012
Middledistillatesmaybepervasiveinthemarketrightnow,butmiddlegroundamongpolicymakersin
Washington rather less so. Upcoming decisions affecting new pipeline capacity to the Gulf Coast are
likelytobecontentious,whileOctoberalsosawasplitvoteamongCFTCCommissionersnarrowlyfavour
theadoptionoffurtherpositionlimitsforcommodityderivatives.Itremainsdifficulttotreadthefineline
between ensuring market diversity, preventing manipulation and minimising systemic risk on the one
hand, while sustaining economic hedging opportunities, preserving market liquidity and preventing
unintended outcomes for price volatility on the other. The debate on market regulation will continue,
andajointIEAIEFOPECViennaworkshopon29Novemberwillagainexaminesomeoftheissues.
Toendonmarketfundamentals,thismonthsreportseesanunderlyingcallonOPECcrudeandstock
changeaveraging30.4mb/dfortherestof2011and2012,justaboverecentOPECoutput.Considering
this and tightening OECD stocks, a fundamentals underpinning for stubbornly high prices is clear. And
although demand estimates are shrouded in economic uncertainty for 2012, so perennial supply risks
alsoneedacknowledging.ThecombinationofLibyaandextensivenonOPECsupplyoutagesmaymake
2011 an outlier. Resurgent, +1 mb/d nonOPEC supply and over 400 kb/d of extra OPEC NGLs should
cover demand growth in 2012. But dont forget that the US Gulf largely avoided hurricane outages in
2011, that the Arab winter could well prove as turbulent as the Arab spring and, not least, that the
Iraniannuclearissueisagainrisingamongmarketconcerns.Singlepointprojectionsareinvaluable,but
onlywiththecaveatsthatareprovidedbyrecognisingthemoreextremesupplyanddemandsiderisks.
10N OVEMBER 2011
D EMAND
DEMAND
Summary
Forecastglobaloildemandisreviseddownby70kb/dfor2011andby20kb/dfor2012,withlower
thanexpected3Q11readingsintheUS,ChinaandJapan.StrongerthanexpecteddemandinKorea,
India and Brazil provide some offsetting support, with overall demand growth largely supported by
gasoil. Global oil demand is expected to rise to 89.2mb/d in 2011 (+1.0% or +0.9mb/dyoy) and
reach90.5mb/d(+1.5%or+1.3mb/d)in2012.
Global Oil Demand (2010-2012)

(millio n barrels per day)
Africa
Americas
Asia/Pacific
Europe
FSU
Middle East
World
Annual Chg (%)
Annual Chg (mb/d)
Changes from last OMR (mb/d)
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010

3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
29.5 30.0 30.5 30.2 30.1
27.2 26.9 26.7 28.3 27.3
15.0 14.9 15.6 15.5 15.3
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.6
4.5
7.4
7.8
8.3
7.7
7.8
86.8 87.4 89.0 89.8 88.3
2.6
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.1
2.2
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.7
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011

3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
30.0 29.8 30.2 30.0 30.0
28.6 27.4 27.5 29.0 28.1
14.9 14.8 15.4 15.3 15.1
4.5
4.6
4.9
4.7
4.7
7.6
8.0
8.3
7.8
7.9
88.9 87.9 89.6 90.2 89.2
2.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
1.0
2.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.02 -0.06 -0.20 -0.03 -0.07
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
30.0 29.8 30.3 30.3 30.1
29.6 28.6 28.3 29.5 29.0
14.7 14.6 15.3 15.2 15.0
4.6
4.6
4.9
4.8
4.7
7.8
8.2
8.6
8.0
8.2
90.2 89.4 90.9 91.4 90.5
1.4
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.3
-0.02 -0.04 -0.05 0.04 -0.02
Projected OECD demand for 2011 is now 45.8mb/d (0.8% or 380kb/d) for 2011 and 45.5mb/d
(0.5%or220kb/d)for2012.Demandhasbeenreviseddownby60kb/dthisyearandby20kb/d
next year, led by downward adjustments to the US and Japan. Nonetheless, European demand was
broadlyunchangedandoilfiredpowergenerationinJapanisexpectedtoriseincomingmonths.
EstimatednonOECDoildemandfor2011and2012isnowseenat43.4mb/d(+3.0%or+1.3mb/d)
and 44.9mb/d (+3.5% or +1.5mb/d), respectively. Recent Chinese data have come in lower than
expected,buthigherreadingsfromIndiaandLatinAmericaofferedapartialoffset.Overallrevisions
weremarginal,with2011adjusteddownby10kb/dand2012leftunchanged.
Aneconomicsensitivityanalysis,withGDPgrowthonethirdlowerthaninourbasecase,wouldcut
0.2mb/d from expected 2011 oil demand and 1.2mb/d from the 2012 projection, effectively
curbingglobalannualdemandgrowthto0.7mb/dand0.3mb/d,respectively.
Global Overview
Amid continued economic uncertainty and sustained high oil prices, we have revised down global oil
demandversuslastmonthsreport.Ourbasecaseglobaleconomicgrowthassumptionsremainsteady
at 3.8% for 2011 and 3.9% for 2012, but 3Q11 demand readings have come in weaker than expected.
Indeed,weestimateglobaldemandinSeptember,albeitbasedonpreliminarydata,asflatcomparedto
thesamemonthin2010.Thisfollowsgrowthof1.4%inAugust.Ifthisresultholds,itwouldsignalthe
weakestmonthlydemandgrowthsinceOctober2009.Nevertheless,theforecastrevisionsaremoderate
overall; we have cut 2011 by 70kb/d and lowered 2012 by only 20kb/d, with an upward baseline
revisionto2010of20kb/d,primarilyduetoSyria,providingsomeoffset.
Theshorttermoildemandpictureremainscautiousbutstable.Recentweakerthanexpecteddatafor
China,theUSandJapan,ledtocombineddownwardrevisionsinSeptemberof670kb/d.Russiangasoil
demand has eased from its recent soaring heights, and baseline revisions have reduced Kuwaits
consumption.AlthoughJODIdatahaveyettoshowdentsinThailandsconsumption,recentwidespread
flooding may signal future downward adjustments there. As such, global growth should remain tepid
overthenextfewmonths,withaverageannualincreasesof0.5%expectedin4Q11.Nevertheless,this
10N OVEMBER 2011
D EMAND
annualcomparisonneedstobeseenincontext.Forone,demandin4Q10grewexceptionally,by+3.4%
(3.0mb/d), a strong comparison baseline. Real power sector requirements in Japan suggest increased
oilburning there in the coming months and potential needs for diesel generators in China also lend
upsiderisks,thoughgasoilthereisnotexpectedtogrowatthepaceof4Q10sexpansion.Moreover,the
globalconsumptionpicturestillappearsbroadlysupportive,withannualEuropeandemandexpectations
Oil Demand Sensitivity
unchanged and Korea, India and Brazil
growing stronger than expected. Robust
2010
2011
2012 2011 vs. 2010 2012 vs. 2011
gasoil continues to underpin product
%
m b/d
%
m b/d
demand in many countries. Leading Base GDP
indicatorspointtoeconomiccaution,but Global GDP (y-o-y chg) 5.0% 3.8% 3.9%
OECD
46.2
45.8
45.5 -0.8% -0.38 -0.5% -0.22
gasoil strength may signify lingering
Non-OECD
42.1
43.4
44.9 3.0%
1.28
3.5%
1.53
industrial strength in some markets,
World
88.3
89.2
90.5 1.0%
0.90
1.5%
1.31
particularlytheUS.
Low er GDP
Global GDP (y-o-y chg)
5.0%
2.6%
2.6%
OECD
46.2
45.7
45.2 -0.9% -0.42 -1.1% -0.50
As we habitually note, the demand
Non-OECD
42.1
43.2
44.0 2.6%
1.11
1.8%
0.80
picture could sour significantly should
World
88.3
89.0
89.3 0.8%
0.69
0.3%
0.30
economic prospects falter. Our
sensitivity analysis provides an indicative view with GDP growth onethird lower than the base case.
Undersuchconditions,globaloildemandwouldbereducedversusourbasecaseby0.2mb/dfor2011
andby1.2mb/dfor2012,withannualgrowthat0.7mb/dand0.3mb/d,respectively.Aspreviously,we
assumethatthemoreincomeelasticdevelopingeconomieswouldfeelthisimpactmostintensely.
Y-o-Y
% Chg
6
World: Total Oil Product Demand
Gasoil Demand, Actual & F'Cast

mb/d
14.0
27.5
13.5
27.0
13.0
26.5
12.5
26.0
12.0
(2)
25.5
25.0
11.5
24.5
(4)
11.0
24.0
(6)
Jan
10.5
23.5
1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 3Q11
OECD
Non-OECD
World (RHS)
Apr
2008
Jul
2009
Oct
2010
Jan
2011
Global Oil Demand Growth 2010/2011/2012

thousand barrels per day
North America
Europe
464
FSU
288
194
54
-120
-112
1400
-174
Asia
Middle East
-115
287
857
240
860
118
-249
Latin America
305
188
212
60
Africa
174
Global Demand Growth

(mb/d)
-35
2010
2011
2012
2.69
0.90
1.31
3.1%
1.0%
1.5%
10N OVEMBER 2011
D EMAND
OECD
Accordingtopreliminarydata,OECDinlanddeliveries(oilproductssuppliedbyrefineries,pipelinesand
terminals) fell by 2.2% yearonyear in September, with all three regions posting declines. All products
fell yearonyear except for diesel (+2.0%) and residual fuel oil (+1.6%), amid strength from North
AmericaandthePacific,respectively.
m b/d
52
OECD: Demand by Driver, Y-o-Y Chg
OECD: Total Oil Product Demand
Transport
Pow er Gen.
Total Dem .
m b/d
1.0
49
Heating
Other
0.5
-
46
(0.5)
(1.0)
43
(1.5)
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
(2.0)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
RevisionstoAugustpreliminarydata,at190kb/d,stemmedlargelyfromtheUS(260kb/d)andJapan
(150kb/d), which outweighed upward adjustments to Turkey (+130kb/d) and Germany (+60kb/d). In
the US, downward revisions were concentrated in residual fuel, other products and gasoline.
Downwardadjustmentstootherproducts(whichincludesdirectcrudeburn)ledtherevisioninJapan.
Yet,asnotedlastmonth,givenvolatilityindeliveriesandthestrengthofpreliminarySeptember data,
there is little evidence to suggest a retrenchment in Japanese oilfired power generation. Meanwhile,
gasoilinTurkeyandnaphthainKoreahavecontinuedtosurprisetotheupside.
Overall, OECD demand declined by only 0.2% yearonyear in August versus 2.3% in July. September
preliminarydata,however,suggestaweakerpicture,withconsumptiondecliningby2.2%yearonyear.
Japan,inparticular,appearstobecontributingtotheweakerthanexpectedSeptemberdata.Whileoil
burninginpowergenerationremainsstrong,downwardadjustmentstoallotherproductcategoriesmay
indicatesomeslowingintherecoveryeffectafterMarchsearthquakeandtsunami.Wehavecontinued
torevisedowntheannualOECDdemandpicture,butonlymoderately,withdownwardadjustmentsof
60kb/din2011and20kb/din2012.OuroutlookseesOECDdemanddecliningby0.8%(380kb/d)to
45.8mb/din2011andfallingby0.5%(220kb/d)in2012.
OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - September 2011

Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
RFO
mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa
OECD North Am erica* 10.32
US50
8.73
Canada
0.76
Mexico
0.78
OECD Europe
2.22
Germany
0.48
United Kingdom
0.34
France
0.18
Italy
0.24
Spain
0.13
OECD Pacific
1.54
Japan
0.98
Korea
0.20
Australia
0.31
OECD Total
14.08
* Including US territo ries
10N OVEMBER 2011
-3.5
-4.2
-0.9
1.0
-4.5
-3.0
-5.8
-5.9
-5.1
-6.8
-3.6
-5.8
1.0
-0.3
-3.7
1.63
1.43
0.11
0.05
1.37
0.20
0.32
0.17
0.11
0.14
0.65
0.34
0.16
0.13
3.64
-2.2
-2.1
-10.4
14.3
0.0
0.0
-4.5
4.5
-3.3
13.9
-6.9
-16.5
6.7
4.2
-2.3
4.19
3.61
0.23
0.32
4.55
0.70
0.46
0.73
0.53
0.47
1.10
0.41
0.28
0.36
9.85
5.4
5.6
-2.3
9.8
-1.1
-5.5
-0.1
0.2
0.4
-2.4
2.2
-7.2
10.4
7.2
2.0
0.80
0.33
0.31
0.14
1.84
0.52
0.14
0.32
0.11
0.14
0.45
0.34
0.12
0.00
3.10
-15.3
-29.8
-5.2
9.8
-4.2
-6.8
6.8
-6.7
-9.9
-12.2
-9.8
-16.1
13.2
0.0
-8.1
0.91
0.53
0.09
0.21
1.26
0.13
0.06
0.08
0.12
0.19
0.81
0.51
0.27
0.02
2.98
2.4
4.2
2.4
-1.4
-3.3
-16.9
6.9
1.1
-0.5
-2.8
9.2
17.9
-4.1
5.7
1.6
Other
Total Products
mb/d
% pa
mb/d % pa
5.55
4.21
0.73
0.56
3.80
0.64
0.28
0.46
0.45
0.31
3.08
1.69
1.21
0.17
12.43
-5.03
-5.6
-0.1
-6.8
-1.4
2.2
-0.2
-1.9
-5.8
-5.3
-1.4
-3.3
1.9
-0.6
-3.1
23.40
18.85
2.22
2.06
15.04
2.67
1.61
1.94
1.55
1.38
7.64
4.26
2.24
0.99
46.08
-2.6
-3.0
-1.8
0.5
-2.2
-3.9
-1.5
-1.7
-3.4
-3.3
-1.4
-4.5
2.9
3.0
-2.2
D EMAND
North America
Preliminary data show oil product demand in North America (including US territories) falling by 2.6%
yearonyearinSeptember,followinga1.5%decreaseinAugust.Declineswereledbygasoline(3.5%),
heatingoil(15.3%)andnaphtha(17.0%).Diesel(+5.4%)continuedtopoststrongreadings,amidstill
positive industrial indicators. US GDP grew at an annualised 2.5% in 3Q11, suggesting a degree of
economicstabilityamidrecentpessimisticheadlines.OurassumptionsforUSandNorthAmericanGDP
growthin2012remainat1.8%and2.0%,respectively.Still,preliminaryOctoberreadingsfortheUShave
come in lower than expected. Going into November, an early blizzard in the US Northeast may help
temporarilyboostheatingoildemand,buttraveldisruptionsmayfurtherdepressgasoline.
OECD North America: Demand by

Driver, Y-o-Y Chg
OECD North America:

Total Oil Product Demand
m b/d
27
Transport
Pow er Gen.
Total Dem .
m b/d
26
0.5
25
Heating
Other
24
(0.5)
23
(1.0)
22
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
(1.5)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Revisions to August data averaged 200kb/d and were driven by the US (260kb/d). Residual fuel oil
(130kb/d), other products (130kb/d) and gasoline (50kb/d) were all lower, while gasoil (+50kb/d)
providedsomeoffset.WeeklytomonthlygasoilrevisionsintheUScontinuetobedifficulttoanticipate,
with adjustments alternating between positive and negative over the past four months; by contrast,
gasolineadjustmentstoweeklydatahavebeenconsistentlynegative.
AdjustedpreliminaryweeklydatafortheUnitedStates(excludingterritories)uptothe28thofOctober,
whichwouldexcludetheunseasonablyearlywinterstorm,indicatethatinlanddeliveriesaproxyofoil
productdemanddeclinedby1.7%yearonyearinOctober,followinga3.0%fallinSeptember.October
data featured a sharp yearonyear decline in residual fuel (36.5%) amid mild autumn temperatures.
Gasoline demand declined by an estimated 4.9%, suggesting that passenger travel has continued to
deteriorate even with retail prices around $3.40/gallon at monthend, some 15% below price highs
reachedinMay,but25%aboveprioryearlevels.
kb/d
500
300
100
(100)
(300)
(500)
(700)
(900)
Aug-09
Gasoline
US50 Monthly Revisions:

MOS vs EIA Weekly
kb/d
1,000
US50: Residual Fuel Oil Demand
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
Mar-10
Oct-10
May-11
Gasoil
Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil
Other
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Meanwhile, gasoil demand appears to have strengthened in October, growing at an estimated 13.6%.
Such a strong rate should be viewed cautiously; it may indeed stem from both methodological and
economic factors. Our growth assessment, which adjusts weekly data for prior weeklytomonthly
10N OVEMBER 2011
D EMAND
revisions, may be producing an inflated result compared to a seasonally low October 2010. Moreover,
dieselindicators,whilestillstrong,suggestthatyearonyeargrowthmaybesomewhatlessrobust.US
intermodalrailtrafficfromtheAssociationofAmericanRailroadsrose3.6%yearonyearinOctoberand
thelatesttrucktonnageindexfromtheAmericanTruckingAssociationinSeptembershowedgrowthof
5.8%yearonyear.
kb/d
4,700
US50: Gasoil Demand
kb/d
850
Mexico: Motor Gasoline Demand
4,500
800
4,300
4,100
750
3,900
3,700
700
3,500
3,300
650
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Mexicosoildemandgrewby0.5%inSeptemberwithpositivereadingscomingfromjetfuel/kerosene
(+14.3%) and gasoil (+9.8%) partly offset by weak readings of residual fuel and naphtha. Mexicos air
travelactivityhasrecoveredfromlastyearslowsasothercarriershavesteppedintocoverroutesonce
flown by bankrupt Mexicana. Gasoil demand strength has continued to benefit from strong industrial
activity,thoughleadingindicatorssuggestthatmanufacturingmaymoderateoverthenextsixmonths.
Europe
Preliminary estimates of European demand in September point to a 2.2% yearonyear decline, with
naphtha(4.6%),motorgasoline(4.5%)andheatingoil(4.2%)performingpoorly.Septembersgasoline
contraction implies a combination of fuel switching and simple economising, as new car registrations
continued to rise, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, up 0.6% in
SeptemberafterAugusts7.7%gain.ConsideringthedecliningnatureoftheEuropeandemandpicture,
jet/kerosenessteadiness(flatcomparedto2010)hasbeenanotherpositive,withtheInternationalAir
TransportAssociationreportinga9.2%gaininEuropeanairlinetrafficflowsthisSeptember.Moreover,
revisionstoAugustpreliminarydatawerepositive,at160kb/d,largelyduetostrongerthananticipated
diesel and heating oil; a downward baseline revision to Norwegian LPG provided a partial offset. Our
forecastremainslargelyunchanged,withdemandaveraging14.4mb/din2011and14.3mb/din2012.
m b/d
16.5
OECD Europe: Demand by Driver,

Y-o-Y Chg
OECD Europe:
15.5
m b/d
0.2
15.0
14.5
(0.2)
14.0
(0.4)
16.0
13.5
Transport
Pow er Gen.
Total Dem .
Heating
Other
(0.6)
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
(0.8)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Still, the twotier nature of the European oil demand picture remainswith the more northerly
EuropeannationsseeingstrongerdemandthantheirmoreheavilyindebtedMediterraneanbrethren
10N OVEMBER 2011
D EMAND
albeitthegapappearstobenarrowing,withthegeneraleconomicgloomspreadingnorth.Germanyand
France saw sub50 purchasing managers indices in October, at 49.1 and 49.0 respectively. Having
enjoyedstronggrowthinAugust,above3.5%,preliminaryestimatesforFrenchoildemandinSeptember
pointtowardsareturntoitslongrundecliningtrend,down1.7%onthecorrespondingperiodlastyear.
ThegasolinemarketinFrancewasparticularlysluggish,down5.9%.EarlyestimatesforSeptemberimply
yearonyear declines across the continent, with neither Germany (3.9%), Spain (3.3%), nor Italy
(3.4%)escapingthemalaise.Still,Germanheatingoildemandcontinuedtoriseonaseasonalbasis.
kb/d
280
France: Motor Gasoline Demand
kb/d
800
260
700
240
600
220
500
200
400
180
300
160
200
140
Germany: Heating Oil Demand
100
Jan
Apr
Jul
5-year avg
Oct
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
AugustdatafortheUKshowedadeclineof1.5%yearonyear,ledbygasoline(4.7%)withpotentially
weakerreadingsahead.TheUKpurchasingmanagersindexforOctoberfell to47.4fromSeptembers
50.8 reading. Not only is the reading a 28month low for this index but its decline below the key
50threshold effectively signals a contraction. Nevertheless, European demand supports persist.
September preliminary data indicate Poland grew by 0.5%, following 6.9% growth in August. Turkeys
demandalsocontinuestosurprisetotheupside,ledbygasoil,thoughitsgrowthrate(+20.8%inAugust
versustheprioryear)maybeunsustainablyhigh.
The Winter That Cries Wolf for Heating Oil

Whileautumnprevailsinthecalendar,alateOctoberblizzardintheUSNortheastservesasareminderof
the approaching winter heating season in the OECD. Oil market players often greet cold winter weather
surges with excitement, in anticipation of upward revisions to heating oil consumption above forecasted
seasonalrises.Inexceptionalcaseswhereimpairmenttothepowersectorpromptsawidespreadrolloutof
diesel generators, the uptick to oil demand could be significant. However, as elaborated previously (see
WatchingtheMercury,OMRdated10December2010),therealupsideofmanycoldshocksonanticipated
demandoftenfallsshortofheadlinesoverthecourseofawinter,givenuncertaintiesoverthedurationof
colderthannormalweatherandstructurallydecliningOECDoiluseforheatingandpowergeneration.
Asimple,topdownexaminationofOECDheatingoildemandduringwinters(OctoberMarch)overthelast
decadesuggeststhatoriginalforecastestimateshavebeenpronetosharpswings,withchangingeconomic
conditionsanddistillatecategorisationlikelyplayingalargerrolethantheweather.Itappearsforthefive
coldest winters during that period, final heating oil demand has come in roughly between 100kb/d to
+300kb/dversusouroriginalforecast.Duringthesewinters,heatingdegreedays(HDDs)averaged5to15%
higher than the prevailing 10year average. During last years winter (20102011) heating oil demand was
revised up by 160kb/d versus the original forecast with HDDs 6% above normal. Still with the economy
recoveringfromrecessionatthattime,thedemandupsideattributablesolelytoweatherwasprobablyless.
Indeed, given structural interfuel substitution, the weather impact on OECD oil use continues to slowly
recedeovertime.OngoingchangesintheUSareillustrativeofthistrend.Demandforheatingoilhasfallen
as less homes use oil as their chief source of heat, while those still doing so have become more efficient
consumers. The US Energy Information Administrations (EIA) Residential Energy Consumption Survey
indicatesthatin2009only6.3%ofUShomesweredependentuponheatingoiltoheattheirhomes,down
from 6.6% in 2005 and 7.6% in 2001. Most of these households are located in the US Northeast, where
heatingoilaccountsforabout27%ofspaceheating.Since2003,thenumberofheatingoilhouseholdsinthe
10
10N OVEMBER 2011
D EMAND
The Winter That Cries Wolf for Heating Oil (continued)

US Northeasthas fallen by20%, with over half of the decline due to increased natural gas penetration, a
trendthatislikelytocontinueasnaturalgasmaintainsanadvantageouspricegapoveroilproducts.
Million
US Northeast: Households by Primary

Heating Source, Winter Period
US50: Gasoil Demand, mb/d

12-m roll avg
3.6
11
1.4
1.2
10
3.3
Natural gas
1.0
0.8
3.0
0.6
Heating oil
0.4
2.7
0.2
6
5
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2009/10
2.4
Jan 00
2011/12
Source: EIA; 2011/2012 is EIA projection
0.0
Jul 02 Jan 05
Diesel
Jul 07 Jan 10
Heating & Other Gasoil (RHS)
Still,gaugingthedemandimpactofsubstitutionisdifficultgivenongoingchallengesincharacterisinggasoil
consumption by use. Evolving fuel quality specifications and changing consumption patterns have blurred
the distinction between Transport Diesel (defined as onroad diesel) and Heating and Other Gasoil
(heatingoilforindustrial/commercialuses,marinediesel,raildieselandotheruses,irrespectiveofsulphur
content)inmonthlydatasubmittedtotheIEA.IntheUS,dramaticchangesinheatingoildemandinrecent
years may stem as much from data classification issues as from economics, weather and interfuel
substitution.WithseveralstatesintheUSNortheastplanningtoreducesulphurinheatingoiltothatoflow
sulphurdieselinthenextfewyears,thepicturemaybecomeevenmoremuddledgoingforward.
Data classification issues notwithstanding, we would caution that any impending cold snap during the
comingwintermayhavelessimpactonOECDheatingoildemandoverthecourseofawinterthanmany
commentators think. This contrasts with developments in emerging markets, particularly China, where a
combinationofweather,governmentpolicyandnonoilgenerationshortagescaninducehugeshortterm
swingsingasoildemandofseveralhundredthousandbarrelsperdayinmagnitude.
Pacific
PreliminarydataindicatethatPacificoilproductdemanddeclinedby1.4%yearonyearinSeptember,
ledbyLPG,jetfuel/keroseneandgasoline.RevisionstoAugustpreliminarydata,at140kb/d,stemmed
mostlyfromlowerotherproductsinJapan.Still,theoutlookforcrudeandfueloilburninginJapanhas
improved, while petrochemical activity in Korea has acted as a nearterm support. In contrast, weaker
readingsacrossotherproductcategoriessuggestthattherecoveryeffectafterJapansearthquakeand
tsunamiinMarchmaybewaning.Wehavereviseddown2011demandby30kb/dto7.9mb/d(+0.7%or
50kb/dyoy)whileleaving2012unchangedatthesamelevel(+0.3%or20kb/dyoy).
m b/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
OECD Pacific: Demand by Driver,

Y-o-Y Chg
OECD Pacific:
Transport
Pow er Gen.
Total Dem .
m b/d
0.2
0.1
Heating
Other
(0.1)
(0.2)
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
10N OVEMBER 2011
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
(0.3)
(0.4)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
11
D EMAND
In Japan, oil demand declined by 4.5% yearonyear in September, with all categories, bar other
products, which include crude direct burn, and residual fuel oil, posting declines. Jet fuel/kerosene
(16.5%) and gasoil (11.4%) posted the steepest falls. Due to higher assessed needs for power
generation,theoutlookforotherproductsandresidualfueloilhasbeenraisedbyamodest10kb/dfor
2012.Ourbasecaseprofilefornuclearpowergenerationcontinuestoseearecoverystartinginspring
2012, though at a slightly slower pace versus the previous assessment. Oil burning needs in 2012 are
forecasttoadd290kb/dtonormallevels(around200kb/d).Tobesure,thenuclearpolicydebatein
Japan continues. In the less likely event that no nuclear power returns in 2012, incremental oil burn
needsversusnormalwouldstandat460kb/dnextyear.
kb/d
Japan : Oil Consumption (Crude +

Fuel Oil) for Power Generation*
kb/d
1,050
Korea: Naphtha Demand
800
*Main Utilities; Source: FEPC, IEA
950
600
400
850
200
750
0
Jan
650
Mar
May
Jul
2007
2008
2010
2011
Sep
Nov
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
2009
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
In Korea, demand rose by 2.9% in September. Despite indications of generally weak petrochemical
activityinAsia,naphthademandcontinuedtoholdup,growingby7.3%yearonyear.Still,expectations
areformoderatinggrowthratesthrough2012,withnaphthademandgrowthforecasttofallbelow3%in
the fourth quarter of 2011 and demand remaining relatively steady in 2012. Korean diesel demand
(+10.4%)postedstrong gainswhilegasolinegrewmoderately(+1.0%)in September,in contrasttothe
decliningmotorfuelpictureinmanyotherOECDcountries.
Non-OECD
PreliminarydemanddataindicatethatnonOECDoildemandgrewby2.4%yearonyear(+1.0mb/d)in
September,downfrom3.1%growthinAugust.Chineseapparentdemandgrowthwasmarkedlyslower,
though questions persist over the true weakness of underlying consumption. Russian demand,
particularlyingasoil,alsoslowedfromitstorridpaceduringthepreviousfourmonths.Still,theoverall
demandpictureremainedsupportive,withIndiasgrowthratenotablypickingup.
m b/d Non-OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

46
44
42
40
38
36
34
Jan
12
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
m b/d
Non-OECD: Gasoil Demand
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Range 2006-2010
5-year avg
2010
2011
Jan
10N OVEMBER 2011
D EMAND
Non-OECD: Demand by Product

(tho usand barrels per day)
D e m a nd
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
A nnua l C hg ( k b/ d)
A nnua l C hg ( %)
Aug-11 Sep-11
Aug-11 Sep-11
LPG & Ethane
4,911
4,971
5,025
224
216
4.7
4.5
Naphtha
2,631
2,608
2,664
-19
21
-0.7
0.8
Motor Gasoline
8,478
8,499
8,464
410
275
5.1
3.4
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
2,751
2,774
2,795
66
87
2.4
3.2
13,488
13,484
13,398
563
480
4.4
3.7
Residual Fuel Oil
5,398
5,463
5,348
55
-171
1.0
-3.1
Other Products
6,050
5,921
5,944
35
108
0.6
1.9
43,707
43,720
43,637
1,333
1,016
3.1
Gas/Diesel Oil
Total Products
2.4
Total September demand is estimated at 43.6mb/d, while August levels have been revised up by
210kb/dto43.7mb/d(+1.3mb/dyearonyear).Still,partofAugustsupwardrevisionincludedaboost
to Thailand, as reported via JODI data. With recent flooding dampening industrial output there, the
demand risk looking forward lies increasingly to the downside. The latest JODI update also included
sizeable revisions to Kuwaiti demand, resulting in the downward adjustment of our estimate there by
160kb/d in June and by 110kb/d in July (these revisions were smaller than the changes to the JODI
numbersthemselves,givenourpreviousadjustmentsfordatapointswebelievedtobetoohigh).
Non-OECD: Demand by Region

D e m a nd
Jul-11
Africa
Aug-11
Sep-11
A nnua l C hg ( %)
Aug-11 Sep-11
Aug-11 Sep-11
3,300
3,253
3,297
-113
-72
-3.3
-2.1
Asia
19,932
19,717
19,934
889
596
4.7
3.1
FSU
4,748
5,026
4,783
396
142
8.6
3.1
Latin America
6,549
6,695
6,659
240
205
3.7
3.2
Middle East
8,492
8,300
8,246
-123
131
-1.5
1.6
687
728
718
44
13
6.4
1.9
43,707
43,720
43,637
1,333
1,016
3.1
2.4
Non-OECD Europe
Total Products
China
Chinasmonthlyapparentdemand(calculatedasrefineryoutputplusnetproductimports)rosebyonly
1.9% yearonyear in September as higher refinery runs were weighed down by lower net imports
comparedtoayearago.ApparentdemandinAugustwasreviseddownmarginally,by20kb/d,putting
growth for that month at 5.6%. September demand was led by yearonyear increases in gasoline
(+6.4%), jet/kerosene (+16.0%) and gasoil (+4.6%). Residual fuel oil (24.8%) posted a sharp fall, while
LPGcontinuedtodecline(1.5%).Themonthlydemandpatternfitswithourviewofmoderatinggrowth
rates over the next 18 months as the economy slows and particularly heading into 4Q11, which is not
expectedtofeaturethealmost300kb/dquarteronquartergasoilincreasethatcharacterised4Q10.
kb/d
1,000
m b/d
China: Residual Fuel Oil Demand
China: Apparent Gasoil Demand
4.2
900
3.7
800
3.2
700
600
2.7
500
2.2
400
1.7
Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11
OMR Dem and
Adjusted for OGP/Xinhua Stock Changes
Adjusted for JODI Stock Changes
300
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
10N OVEMBER 2011
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
13
D EMAND
However, questions remain over the viability of Chinese consumption indicators. While our apparent
demandcalculationimplicitlyincludesstockchanges,recentmonthproductdrawsmaybeexacerbating
apparentdemandweaknessandcouldsignalstockpilingahead.Septemberscalculatedinventorychange
(seeOECDStockssection)suggestsgasoilstocksmayhavedrawn8.9mb,withSinopecindicatinganeed
to replenish its holdings. Moreover, indicators again point to shortfalls in winter power generation,
which may incentivise higherthanexpected diesel use. Nevertheless, the economy has slowed on the
back of monetary tightening, with GDP growing at 9.1% in 3Q11. Notably, the official purchasing
managers index fell in October to a level only just in expansionary territory. Overall, our forecast for
2012isreviseddownmodestly,by20kb/d,thoughgrowthat5.3%(+500kb/d)remainsrobust.
China: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
668
680
699
13
18
1.9
2.7
Naphtha
1,129
1,184
1,241
56
56
4.9
4.8
Motor Gasoline
1,546
1,657
1,736
112
78
7.2
4.7
368
400
419
32
19
8.6
4.8
3,142
3,335
3,498
193
163
6.1
4.9
LPG & Ethane
Jet Fuel & Kerosene

Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
2012
531
532
539
0.1
1.5
Other Products
1,685
1,756
1,915
71
159
4.2
9.1
Total Products
9,069
9,544
10,047
476
502
5.2
5.3
Other Non-OECD
InIndia,oildemandroseby6.7%yearonyearinSeptember,fasterthanAugusts3.4%growth.Gasoil
(+9.8%),LPG(+10.2%)andnaphtha(+18.5%)postedthelargestgains,thoughresidualfueloil(20.2%)
andjetfuel/kerosene(2.5%)declined.Gasoline,whichispricedhigherthandieselandwhosepricerose
in September, still increased by 6.2% yoy while gasoil demand benefitted from coalfired power
shortfalls.DespiteSeptembersstronggrowth,theIndianeconomycontinuestoshowsignsofslowing,
withbothindustrialoutputandautosalesmoderating.Nevertheless,withanowhigher2011baseline,
ourforecastisrevisedupby20kb/dfor2012,withgrowthmarginallyhigherat3.7%.
India: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
LPG & Ethane
455
495
525
40
30
8.8
6.1
Naphtha
201
207
198
-10
3.1
-4.7
Motor Gasoline
338
359
379
21
20
6.2
5.6
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
299
299
302
-0.1
1.1
1,290
1,364
1,435
74
71
5.7
5.2
Residual Fuel Oil
195
173
183
-21
10
-11.0
5.6
Other Products
559
564
568
0.9
0.7
3,337
3,462
3,590
125
128
3.7
3.7
Gas/Diesel Oil
Total Products
kb/d
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
India: Jet Fuel & Kerosene Demand
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
14
kb/d
340
India: Gasoil Demand
2012
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
10N OVEMBER 2011
D EMAND
DemandgrowthinRussiaeasedfromitspreviousloftyheights,rising2.8%inSeptemberversustheprior
year.Thisdecelerationcomesafterfourmonthsofaverage10%+growth.Slowinggasoilexplainsmuch
oftheretrenchment,withdemanddecliningslightly(0.3%)inSeptember,andbaselinedemandrevised
downslightlyoverthepreviousfourmonths.Gasoline(+0.7%)alsoregisteredanotablyslowergrowth
rate.PersistentstrengthinLPG(+4.5%)andotherproducts(+12.2%)continuedtolendsupporttothe
consumptionpicture.
Russia: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
LPG & Ethane
493
514
531
22
16
4.4
3.2
Naphtha
289
286
292
-3
-1.0
1.9
Motor Gasoline
774
777
778
0.4
0.2
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
255
266
270
11
4.3
1.3
Gas/Diesel Oil
634
686
685
52
8.2
0.0
Residual Fuel Oil
291
300
282
-18
2.9
-6.0
Other Products
542
612
626
70
14
12.9
2.3
3,278
3,441
3,464
163
23
5.0
0.7
Total Products
2012
Source: Petromarket RG, IEA
kb/d
900
kb/d
220
Russia: Gasoil Demand
Brazil: Residual Fuel Oil Demand
210
810
200
720
190
630
180
170
540
160
S o urc e : P e t ro m a rk e t R G , IE A
450
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
150
Jan
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-year avg
2011
Jan
In Brazil, product demand rose 3.2% yearonyear in August, led by jet fuel/kerosene (+8.6%), gasoil
(+7.3%)andLPG(+4.7%).Residualfueloil(15.9%)continuedtodecline,displacedinthepowersectorby
increasedgasandhydrosupplies.Brazilsindustrialindicatorshavecontinuedtosoften;assuch,gasoil
growthratesareexpectedtomoderatethroughtheendoftheyear.Gasolinedemandgrowth,at3.4%,
improvedversusthe2.6%declineregisteredinJuly.Aselaboratedinlastmonthsissue,areductionin
anhydrousalcoholblendingfrom1Octobermayhaveaneutraleffectonoverallmotorgasolinedemand,
whileincreasingpetroleumbasedproductsrequirements.Still,autosaleshavebeendecliningyearon
year since July (by comparison, sales grew by 7% in 2010), suggesting potentially more moderate
gasolinegrowthratesahead.
Brazil: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
LPG & Ethane
219
223
225
1.8
0.9
Naphtha
166
166
167
0.4
0.2
Motor Gasoline
792
817
843
25
26
3.1
3.2
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
110
121
132
11
10
10.2
8.4
Gas/Diesel Oil
886
924
958
38
34
4.2
3.7
Residual Fuel Oil
187
163
154
-24
-9
-12.6
-5.7
Other Products
374
380
384
1.6
1.2
2,733
2,794
2,862
61
68
2.2
2.4
Total Products
10N OVEMBER 2011
2012
15
S UPPLY
SUPPLY
Summary
Global oil supply rose by 1.1 mb/d to 89.3 mb/d in October from September, driven higher by
reboundingnonOPECoutput.Comparedtoayearago,globaloilproductionstood1.2mb/dhigher,
70% of which stemmed in roughly equal shares from higher OPEC crude and NGLs production and
30%fromincreasednonOPECoiloutput.
NonOPEC supply rose by 0.9 mb/d to 53.3 mb/d in October, largely due to the completion of
maintenance in the North Sea, as well as increased production in Brazil and North America.
UnplannedoutagesinChinaandtheMiddleEastonlymodestlydentedoveralloutput.Comparedto
lastyear,4Q11productionshouldgrowbyaround300kb/dto53.4mb/d.AnnualnonOPECsupply
growthnowaveragesonly0.1mb/dfor2011butrecoversto1.1mb/dfor2012.
OPECsupplyroseby95kb/dto30.01mb/dinOctober,withhigheroutputbyLibya,SaudiArabia
and Angola partially offset by lower output from all other members. Libya continued to rampup
crude production from 75kb/d in September, to a monthly average of 350kb/d in October and by
earlyNovemberitwashoveringaroundthe500kb/dmark.OPECNGLssupplyaverages5.9mb/din
2011and6.3mb/dfor2012,representingannualgrowthof0.5mb/dand0.4mb/drespectively.
The call on OPEC crude and stock change for 2011 is largely unchanged at 30.5 mb/d while a
furtherincreaseinnonOPECsuppliesresultsina0.2mb/ddownwardadjustmentinthe2012call
to 30.4mb/d. Meanwhile, estimated OPEC spare capacity for October stood at 3.58 mb/d versus
3.31mb/d in September. OPEC spare capacity reached a 2011 low of 3.21 mb/d in June compared
with4.74mb/dpriortotheLibyancrisisinJanuary.
m b/d
62
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply

m b/d
31.0
60
30.5
58
30.0
56
29.5
54
29.0
52
28.5
50
Jan 11
28.0
Jul 11
Jan 12
Non-OP EC
OP EC Crude - RS
Jul 12
OP EC NGLs
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
m b/d
Year-on-Year Change
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11
OP EC Crude
Non-OP EC
OP EC NGLs
Total Supply
All world oil supply figures for October discussed in this report are IEA estimates. Estimates for OPEC
countries,Alaska,andRussiaaresupportedbypreliminaryOctobersupplydata.
Note:RandomeventspresentdownsiderisktothenonOPECproductionforecastcontainedinthisreport.These
events can include accidents, unplanned or unannounced maintenance, technical problems, labour strikes,
politicalunrest,guerrillaactivity,warsandweatherrelatedsupplylosses.Specificallowancehasbeenmadein
the forecast for scheduled maintenance in all regions and for typical seasonal supply outages (including
hurricanerelatedstoppages)inNorthAmerica.Inaddition,fromJuly2007,anationallyallocated(butnotfield
specific)reliabilityadjustmenthasalsobeenappliedforthenonOPECforecasttoreflectahistoricaltendency
for unexpected events to reduce actual supply compared with the initial forecast. This totals 200kb/d for
nonOPECasawhole,withdownwardadjustmentsfocusedintheOECD.
16
10N OVEMBER 2011
S UPPLY
OPEC Crude Oil Supply

OPECsupplyroseby95kb/dto30.01mb/dinOctober,withhigheroutputfromLibya,andtoalesser
extentSaudiArabiaandAngola,whichoffsetdeclinesinoutputfromallothermembers.Libyacontinued
to rampup crude production in October, to a monthly average of 350kb/d and by early November
reachedthe500kb/dmark(seeLibyanProductionOutpacesForecast).
WhileOctoberOPECproductionwasstillrunningbelowpreLibyancrisislevelsby450kb/d,latestexport
schedules and tanker data indicate November supplies may increase by 300400kb/d, in line with the
seasonalupturninwinterdemand.
m b/d
32
m b/d
33
Quarterly Call on OPEC Crude + Stock

Change
OPEC Crude Oil Production
32
31
30
31
29
30
28
29
27
28
26
1Q
2Q
3Q
Jan
4Q
2 0 10
2 0 11
2 0 12
Entire series based o n OP EC Co mpo sitio n as o f January 2009
o nwards (including A ngo la & Ecuado r & excluding Indo nesia)
Mar
2008
2009
Jul
Sep
2 0 10
Nov
Jan
2 0 11
Entire series based o n OP EC Co mpo sitio n as o f January 2009

o nwards (including A ngo la & Ecuado r & excluding Indo nesia)
OPECsministerialmeetinginViennaon14Decemberisexpectedtobealowkeygathering,againsta
backdrop of high prices. After last Junes rancorous meeting, which led Saudi Arabia and other Gulf
producers to break ranks and ramp up production to offset lost Libyan supplies, already there is a
growing chorus of statements by OPEC representatives
OPEC Basket Price
that the market is well balanced heading into the peak $/bbl
125
winter demand season. In addition, relatively strong oil
prices have seen OPECs basket of crudes average above 120
115
$107/bblinthefirsttenmonthsoftheyear.
110
105
However, habitual price hawks Iran and Venezuela argue
100
thatthegroupscurrent24.845mb/dtarget,ineffectsince
95
January 2009, should be actively reinstated. Underscoring
90
Data source: Platts analysis
thegroupsobsoleteoutputtargets,Octoberproductionby
85
OPEC11of27.32mb/disnowestimated2.47mb/dabove
Jan 11
Apr 11
Jul 11
Oct 11
official levels. Iran currently holds the groups rotating
presidencybutwillpassthistaskontoIraqinJanuary.Thethornyissueofindividualproductiontargetsis
againlikelytobesidestepped(potentiallyuntilIraqicapacitynudgesabove3.5mb/dinlate2012/early
2013). With high prices plus economic headwinds possibly counteracting rising Libyan supplies in OPEC
thinking,manyanalystsseetheDecembermeetingleavingofficialproductionlevelswellalone.
Ourcallon OPECcrude andstockchangefor2011islargelyunchangedat 30.5mb/dwhileafurther

increaseinnonOPECsuppliesresultsinalowercallfor2012,reviseddown0.2mb/dto30.4mb/d.
Anescalationincivilunrestand/orpoliticalinstabilityamongseveralmembercountries,includingLibya,
Iran,IraqandNigeria,hasservedtofocusthemarketsattentiononceagainonOPECsspareproduction
capacity. Estimated effective spare capacity for October reached 3.58mb/d versus 3.31mb/d in
September. OPEC spare capacity reached a 2011 low of 3.21 mb/d in June compared with 4.74mb/d
priortotheLibyancrisisinJanuary.
10N OVEMBER 2011
May
17
S UPPLY
mb/d
OPEC Spare Capacity
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
OPEC Effective Spare Capacity
2006
2007
Iraq
2008
Ven/Nig
2009
2010
2011
Libya
SaudiArabiaincreasedOctobersuppliesby50kb/d,to9.45mb/d.TheSeptemberoutputestimatewas
lowered by a steep 200kb/d on the back of more complete tanker data, to 9.4 mb/d. That said,
preliminaryindicationsarethat productionmayreboundin Novemberinresponsetohighercustomer
requests following Aramcos decision to lower prices for December liftings (see Prices section). Several
AsianbuyersreportedlyplantorequestadditionalvolumesabovetheirnormalallocationsinDecember.
Kuwaiti production has been on a solid upward trend in response to the Libyan crisis, with output in
October averaging 2.65mb/d, unchanged from an upwardly revised September estimate. That
representsanincreaseof240kb/dsinceApril,largelyduetohigheroutputfromthenorthernregionof
thecountry.
OPEC Crude Production
(million barrels per day)
OPEC
Targets
Spare Capacity
vs Oct 2011
Supply
End-2011
Sustainable
Production
Capacity
Effective
Jan 2009
October
Output vs
OPEC
Targets
1.34
0 05
1.34
1.203
0.087
1.72
1.98
0 26
1.98
1.517
0.203
0.50
0.53
0 03
0.53
0.434
0.066
3.54
3.53
3.68
0.15
3.68
3.336
0.194
2.53
2.65
2.65
2.70
0 05
2.85
2.222
0.428
0.00
0.08
0.35
0.50
0.15
0.60
1.469
-1.119
2.28
2.18
2.02
2.55
0 53
2.55
1.673
0.347
0.079
Aug 2011
Supply
Sep 2011
Supply
Oct 2011
Supply
Algeria
1.28
1.29
1.29
Angola
1.69
1.70
Ecuador
0.49
0.50
Iran
3.51
Kuwait2
Libya
Nigeria3
Sustainable
Production
1
Capacity
0.82
0.82
0.81
1.04
0 23
1.04
0.731
Saudi Arabia
9.80
9.40
9.45
12.04
2 59
12.04
8.051
1.399
UAE
2.53
2.55
2.51
2.74
0 23
2.74
2.223
0.287
Venezuela4
2.51
2.51
2.49
2.64
0.15
2.59
1.986
0.499
27.43
27.21
27.32
31.73
4.42
31.93
24.845
2.470
2.68
2.70
2.69
2.85
0.16
3.03
30.11
29.91
30.01
34.58
4.58
34.96
Qatar
2
OPEC-11
Iraq
Total OPEC
(excluding Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela

1
2
3
4
3.58)
Capacity levels can be reached within 30 days and sustained for 90 days.
Includes half of Neutral Zone production.
Nigeria's current capacity estimate excludes some 200 kb/d of shut-in capacity.
Includes upgraded Orinoco extra-heavy oil assumed at 460 kb/d in October.
SuppliesfromIranweredownmarginallylastmonth,to3.53mb/dfrom3.54mb/dinSeptember,butit
appearsanincreasingvolumeofcrudeismovingintofloatingstorage.ShipbrokersEAGibsonreported
Iranian crude held in floating storage rose to 34.3 mb at endOctober compared with 21.4 mb at
endSeptemberand19.3mbatendAugust.Thesevolumesarenotincludedinmonthlysupplyestimates
untilvesselssetsailforexportmarkets.
18
10N OVEMBER 2011
S UPPLY
Libyan Production Outpaces Forecast

Restoration of Libyan production is on a far faster track than initially anticipated. In the midst of the
pandemonium that ultimately led to the formal end to civil unrest in the country on 23 October, Libyan
officials have made a herculean effort to restore upstream operations. Crude oil supplies rose from an
average 75kb/d in September to around 350kb/d in
LibyanCrude OilCapacityOutlook
October. By early November, that figure was an even mb/d
1.8
higher500kb/d.
Libyas impressive reactivation of its production
operations, amid lessthanfeared damage to
infrastructure, has led to another upgrade in our
projectionforthenearterm.Productioncapacitylooks
on course to average 500kb/d in 4Q11, with yearend
levelscloserto700kb/d.
Previous
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Current
For 2012, the scope and pace of the recovery to date

hasledtoarevisiononaquarterbyquarterbasissince
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
our last assessment in June. The 4Q12 estimate has
been raised slightly, to 1.17 mb/d compared with the previous estimate of 1.08 mb/d, but a more rapid
buildup in the first three quarters of the year is now envisaged. 1Q12 capacity is forecast to reach an
average800kb/dcomparedwiththe500kb/denvisagedinJune;2Q12isnowestimatedat930kb/dversus
685kb/dpreviouslyand;3Q12nearer1.07mb/dcomparedwith925kb/d.
Theinitialsurgeinproductionhascomefromahandfuloffields.Goingforward,thetimingandpaceofthe
production increases will hinge on the state of supporting infrastructure such as pipelines, refineries and
exportterminals.ProductionfromsomefieldslikeSarirandMeslahasbeencappedbyexportconstraints.
Other fields in the Sirte basin, such asWaha,could alsobe hemmed in since exportsflow through to the
heavilydamagedEsSiderterminal,whichofficialsalsosaycouldtakeayeartorepair.Productionflowsfrom
theAmalfield,whichservesasagatheringcentreforsmallerfieldsintheeasternSirtebasin,couldalsobe
curbed due to extensive damage at the Ras Lanuf export terminal, including key infrastructure such as
storagetanksandcontrolrooms.
Thebulkoftherestorationofproductionhasbeencarriedbylocalpetroleumindustrystaff,withmuchof
theforeignworkforcestilloutsidethecountry.ParticipationbyIOCsmaybeneedednowtoundertakemore
costly and specialised repairs. The board of
Estimated Libyan Production
LibyasNationalOilCo(NOC)heldmeetingswith
Thousand barrels per day
all the IOCs representatives at endOctober to
October
Current
Pre-War
discuss the status of field operations, export Selected Oil Fields Output
Output
Capacity
30
60
80
infrastructure and security, with the goal of Bu Attifel
Sarir
150
150
200
restoring remaining shutin output as soon as
Mesla
50
60
60
possible.
Nafoora
20
20
130
5
30
30
In the immediate aftermath of the capture of Hamadi/Beida
Zuetina
28
34
60
Sirte and subsequent death of Colonel Gaddafi, As Sarah/NC 96-97
11
20
105
therewereheightenedfearsofretributionkillings Amal
7
45
100
andattacksonoilinfrastructure.Sofar,theworst Waha
0
0
400
301
419
1,165
expectations have not come to pass. Indeed, Eastern Region
Al
Jurf
40
41
45
exports have progressed more smoothly than
Bouri
0
0
50
anticipated. Much of the September output was El Shahara
11
70
200
earmarked to refill storage tanks and supply Elephant
0
0
150
refineries, which kept a lid on exports, October Western Region
51
111
445
saw shipments edge higher, to an estimated TOTAL CRUDE
352
530
1,610
180kb/d. Though supplying domestic refineries
remainsapriority,Novemberexportsvolumesareexpectedtobeinthe200250kb/drange.LibyasNOC
hasalsostartedpublishingproduction,exportandstatusreportsonitswebsitetoimprovetransparency.
ThesurgeinexportrevenuehasprovidedtheNationalTransitionalCouncil(NTC)muchneededbreathing
roomwhileittakesonthehistorictaskofforminganewgovernment.
10N OVEMBER 2011
19
S UPPLY
IraqisuppliesweremarginallylowerinOctober,downbyaround15kb/dto2.69mb/d.Crudeoilexports
were also down 15kb/d, to 2.09 mb/d, with reduced shipments from southern ports stemming from
pipeline attacks and weatherrelated lifting delays only partially offset by a rebound in northern
shipments. Crude exports from the Basrah and Khor alAmaya shipping terminals averaged 1.63mb/d,
off138kb/dfromarevised1.77mb/dforSeptember.
ExportsofKirkukcrudetotheTurkishMediterraneanportofCeyhanrecoveredinOctober,uparound
125kb/dto460kb/d,largelyduetoincreasedoutputfromtheKurdishregionofthecountry.September
exportsofKirkukwerereviseddownby95kb/dto335kb/d,thelowestlevelsinceAugust2010,partly
reflectingmaintenanceworkattheCeyhanportandpartlyreducedoutputfromtheKurdishregionof
thecountryduetopaymentdisputesbetweenBaghdadandlocalauthorities.
mb/d
mb/d
Iraq Crude Production
2.8
2.0
2.7
1.9
2.6
1.8
2.5
Angola Crude Production
1.7
2.4
1.6
2.3
1.5
2.2
1.4
2.1
Jan
Mar
2008
May
2009
Jul
Sep
2010
Nov
Jan
2011
Jan
Mar
2008
May
2009
Jul
Sep
2010
Nov
Jan
2011
AngolanoutputcontinueditsupwardtrendinOctober,up20kb/dto1.72mb/d.Thechronicproduction
problemsthathaveplaguedoutputattheGreaterPlutoniofieldhavelargelybeenovercomenow,while
atthesametimeproductioncontinuestorampupfromtheTotaloperated220kb/dPazflorfield,which
wasinauguratedinlateAugust.Pazflorcrudeoilproductionaveragedanestimated100kb/dinOctober.
Angolanoutputhita2011lowof1.49mb/dinJuneduringtheworstofGreaterPlutoniofieldproblems.
Plutoniohasanameplatecapacityof200kb/dbutrecentproductionhasaveraged170kb/d.
Nigerianproductionwasoffby160kb/dto2.02mb/dduetothelossofBonnyandForcadossupplies
followingsabotagetoinfrastructureinSeptemberandOctober.ByearlyNovember,however,theforce
majeure on Forcados crude exports was lifted a month earlier than expected following completion of
repairstotheTransForcadosPipeline.Asaresult,exportsforNovemberandDecemberareexpectedto
increasebyaround200kb/d,barringfurtherpipelinevandalismandtheft.
VenezuelansuppliesebbedinOctober,downby20kb/dto2.49mb/d.Septembersupplieswererevised
down by 55kb/d, to 2.51mb/d, reflecting latest data showing China reduced imports by 60kb/d that
month. October output was hit by lower supply from two of the countrys heavy oil upgraders.
Operations at the Petropiar heavy oil upgrading unit were reduced following two separate small
explosionsandfires.Maintenanceworkatthe130kb/dPetroanzoategulheavyoilupgraderalsoledto
lowerOctoberoutput.
20
10N OVEMBER 2011
S UPPLY
Non-OPEC Overview
NonOPECoilproductionisestimatedtohaverisenby0.9mb/dto53.3mb/dinOctober,largelydueto
rising supply from North America and Brazil and the completion of maintenance in the North Sea.
Unplanned outages in Yemen and Syria partially reduced overall output. Compared to last year,
nonOPEC supply in 3Q11 fell very slightly (50kb/d), with North American and Latin American
productiongrowthoffsetbymultipleoutagesandmaintenanceelsewhere.IntheUK,productionagain
reached record low levels in August, when offshore crude oil production totalled only 770kb/d (over
20%belowAugust2010).WeexpectfeweroutagesduringthefourthquarterintheNorthSea,withnon
OPECproductionincreasingby0.9mb/dcomparedto3Q11.Withtheexceptionofacoupleofnewfields
comingonlinethismonthinAfricaandLatinAmerica,therealsourceofnonOPECgrowthiscomingfrom
North American shale oil production and Canadian Oil Sands. See (Eagle Ford and Bakken Bonanza to
TransformUSOilProductionOutlook).
Themajorsourceofthedownwardrevisiontoourestimatefor2011nonOPECsupplyiscentredinadata
related revision to Norways production, described in more detail in Revisions to Norwegian Petroleum
DirectorateDataAllowforBetterForecasting.Thisbaselinerevision,combinedwithotheroutageslowers
ourassessmentof2011nonOPECsupplygrowthby30kb/dtoonly140kb/d,or0.3%comparedto2010.
mb/d
1.6
Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change
mb/d
300
1.2
200
0.8
100
0.4
0.0
-100
-0.4
-200
Non-OPEC Supply - Revisions
-300
-0.8
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
OECD
FSU
Non-OECD Asia
LAM
Other
Total
1Q11
NAM
China
PG & Biofuels
3Q11
1Q12
OECD EUR
Other Asia
Other
3Q12
FSU
LAM
Total
In 2012, a 70kb/d upwards revision to the US oil production outlook is the largest component of the
changetothenonOPECsupplyestimate.NonOPECsupplyisexpectedtogrowby1.1mb/dto53.8mb/d
in2012,asshowninthechartabove,andisdrivenprimarilybyincreasingproductioninNorthAmerica,
OECD Pacific, Latin America, and biofuels. A major downside risk to the outlook includes unplanned
outages, which reached around 650kb/d in 3Q11. While by definition we cannot predict unscheduled
outagesin2012,wecustomarilyassumea0.2mb/dannualdownwardadjustmentinouroutlook,largely
forpotentialequipmentfailuresatmatureassetsintheOECD.
OECD
North America
US September, Alaska actual, other states estimated: The impact of tropical storm Lee reduced US
crude oil output in September by around 170kb/d to 5.5 mb/d, bringing Septembers crude output
250kb/d lower than Augusts levels. US total liquids supply increased by almost 300kb/d in the third
quarter compared to the prior year to 8.0 mb/d, stemming largely from growth in US light tight oil
productionandnaturalgasliquids.Eveninlightof3Q11hurricanerelatedshutinsintheGulfofMexico
anddecliningconventionalproductionelsewhere,USoilsupplyhasnotreachedtheselevelssince2002.
Crudeandtotaloilsupplyisseenremainingstableforthebalanceoftheyear.Majorrevisionsforthis
monthcentreintheshaleplays,especiallyinNorthDakotasBakkenandTexasEagleFordshalewhere
oilproductionisexceedingexpectations.IncreasedoiloutputfromshaleoildepositsthatraisestotalUS
crude oil production by 1% in 2012 will be mitigated by declining production elsewhere, especially in
AlaskaandtheGulfofMexico.
10N OVEMBER 2011
21
S UPPLY
mb/d
US Total Oil Production by Source
9.0
0.6
0.4
8.0
0.2
0.1
7.0
2.1
2.1
1.9
6.0
1.8
5.0
4.0
3.0
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.8
2.0
1.0
0.0
2008
2009
Other Crude NGL
2010
Other
mb/d
Canada Oil Supply
4.0
08
3.8
2.2
3.6
3.4
3.2
4.8
3.0
Jan
2011
2012
Total Light Tight Oil
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast
Eagle Ford and Bakken Bonanza to Transform US Oil Production Outlook

The MediumTerm Oil and Gas Markets report (MTOGM) highlighted how the application of horizontal
drillingandhydraulicfracturingtechniques,whichhavebeenusedtoaccessnaturalgas,couldalsobeused
to access liquids from the same tight oil formations. The combination of these techniques with lessons
learnedproducingshalegashasgreatlyboostedoilrecoveryrates.MTOGMpresenteddatashowingasky
rocketingUSoilrigcount,andthatlighttightoilfromthesenewlytappedresourceswouldbethesingle
largestdriverofincrementaloilproductioninthemedium(andevenlong)term.Infact,thenumberofoil
drillingrigsintheUnitedStatesjumpedby34thisweekto1112,thehighestonrecordand50%higherthan
lastyear.Zoominginoncertainplaysshowsthatwewerecorrecttoemphasiselighttightoilasakeydriver
ofthesupplyoutlook,butthedatapointtoanevenquickerandhighermagnitudeuptickinNGLandcrude
oilproductionthanpreviouslyforecast.Consequently,wehaverevisedouroutlookfor2012lighttightoil
productionbyaround120kb/dto810kb/d.
In North Dakota, where the Bakken and Three Forks acreage accounts for almost 90% of production,
monthlyoutputhasrisenby6%onaverageinthelastthreemonths.Fourthquarter2011outputisforecast
to grow by over 60% annually. The chart below shows the number of rigs drilling for oil in North Dakota
jumpingagaintoaround170thispastmonthaswellasasharpuptickindevelopmentwellapprovals.These
leadingindicatorsarealsoevidentintheMonterey(California),Niobrara(Rockies),andEagleFord(Texas)
tightoilformations.
Tight oil production is not cheap, with some estimates placing per barrel production costs at around
$40$55,anditrequiresextensiveinfrastructuretocollectsmallvolumesfromdispersedwells.Transporting
theoiltotheGulfCoastaddsadditionalcosts,butproducerscangetLouisianaLightSweetequivalentprices
for their oil. As long as oiltogas price ratios remain at high levels, producers will maximize the liquids
outputoftheirresources.
Anadditionalpossibleconstraintcouldbetakeawaycapacity,especiallyfromareasoftheWillistonBasinin
North Dakota and eastern Montana. Even though current production exceeds existing pipeline and rail
capacity from the area, analysts do not expect a real constraint until at least the end of 2013 (see chart
below).Thechartbelowshowsarepresentationofonecompanysanalysisofthesetrendsaswellastheir
500
North Dakota Oil Production and

Drilling
Production (LHS), kb/d
190
400
Permitted Dev. Wells (RHS)
160
300
Ave. Rigs (RHS)
130
200
100
70
100
40
10
Source:NDDept.ofMineralResources
22
10N OVEMBER 2011
S UPPLY
Eagle Ford and Bakken Bonanza (continued)

forecastforthebasin.Recentdatashowalargeuptickintruckingandrailfromtheregion(truckingreached
20kb/d according to BENTEK Energy), which puts a strain on road infrastructure and has increased diesel
demand.
TakeawaycapacityandeconomicsarelessofaconstraintintheEagleFordshale,whereproducersbenefit
fromcloseproximitytotheGulfCoastrefiningcentre,highgasliquidscontent,andhighinitialoilproduction
rates.Productionintheareatripledoverthecourseof2010.Sincethen,ithasmorethandoubledin2011to
over300kb/d.Withrisingproduction,truckingandrailtakeawaycapacityhavealsorampedup,and1mb/d
ofnewtransmissionand465kb/dofprocessingcapacityareplannedtohandlenewcrudeandassociated
gasproduction.
US Light Tight Oil Outlook
900
We have tempered the upwards revision to the US
lighttightoilproductionoutlookbecauseofthehigh
800
November OMR
reported decline rates and the high capital costs in
700
shale oil formations. Drilling and completion costs
sometimes reach $10 million/well largely due to the
600
October OMR
need for longer horizontal laterals and constrained
500
quantities of oilfield services in the Bakken. Another
limiting factor will be the extent of drilling that can
400
occurwithoutreducingthepressureintheformation.
Analysts maintain that if the Bakken can support
multiple wells, then future exploration and
development would shift to new prospective areas
suchasThreeForksandwouldresultinevenhigheroutput.Infact,thismonthContinentalResources,one
oftheBakkenslargestresourceholders,announcedpositiveflowratesinadeeperpartoftheThreeForks
formationthatmightindicateotherproductionzonesthatcouldbetappedcommercially.
DespitethepositiveoutlookintheBakkenandEagleFordshales,thereremainsmuchdebateaboutwhether
hydraulicfracturingposesathreattotheenvironment.Wewillcontinuetoreassessourestimatesasnew
data on the economics of these plays becomes available, and we will provide a revised forecast to our
20112016estimatesnextmonth.
CanadaAugustactual:Risingoutputfromtheoilsandsdrovea150kb/dmonthlyincreaseinCanadas
liquidsproductioninAugust.InupcomingmonthsplannedmaintenanceatTerraNovasFPSO,declining
productionatHibernia(bothoffshoreNewfoundland/Labrador),andmaintenanceatCanadianOilSands
SyncrudeprojectshouldmitigateproductiongainsfromgrowingoilsandsprojectslikeSuncorsFirebag
andDevonsJackfishproject.Changestotheoutlookfor4Q11and2012stemmainlyfromtheslightly
fasterthanexpected return of the Horizon facility after the major fire in January caused a complete
shutdown,andthesubsequentdeferralof2012maintenanceinto2013.
Mexico September actual, October preliminary: Tropical Storm Nate reduced Mexican crude oil
output in September by around 60kb/d to 2.5 mb/d, and preliminary figures for October show
production rebounding almost to August levels. Overall, Mexican liquids production fell by around
50kb/dto2.9mb/din3Q11comparedtothepriorquarteranddecreasedby30kb/dyoy.Declining
production at Cantarell and at KMZ were the primary sources of overall decline. Looking forward,
production in Mexico is expected to continue to decline at 3% annually despite Pemexs efforts to
maintainproductionatKMZandCantarellandrampingproductionattheChicontepecfields.
North Sea
NorwayAugustactual,Septemberprovisional:Totalliquidsproductionfellby100kb/dto1.9mb/din
September, as maintenance continued at the Troll, Snorre, and Grane fields. With the return of these
fieldstofullproductionbyNovember,4Q11productionshouldriseabout130kb/dover3Q11levels.We
10N OVEMBER 2011
23
S UPPLY
adjusted our outlook downwards last month after news reports indicated problems with the 130kb/d
Granefieldafteritcompletedplannedmaintenance.Statoilwasabletobringthefieldbacktoitsnormal
levels more quickly than expected. With the revisions to the data series taken into account, we now
expect4Q11outputtogrowby6.7%to2.1mb/dcomparedto7.3%lastmonth.In2012liquidsoutput
shouldfallby1.4%to2.0mb/dincontrasttothe0.6%growthenvisagedlastmonth.
Revisions to IEAs Norway Field Level Data Allow for Better Forecasting
We have undertaken a systematic review of our field level data and are now matching the Norwegian
Petroleum Directorates (NPD) field level crude, condensate, and NGL data back to the beginning of our
monthly data series in 1994. A stepchange in condensate reporting convention by NPD back in 2006
previously caused our own and NPD estimates to diverge, as we retained higher condensate numbers to
matchwithhistoricaldata.
The largest volume divergence began in October 2006, when NPD reclassified Kristin, Mikkel, and sgard
condensateascrudeoil.Thereclassificationoccurredbecausetheoperatornolongerseparatelymarketsits
output as condensate but instead blends the
Revisions to Norway's Output
condensate into the crude stream and markets it as
(1994-2012)
sgard Blend 47.1 API crude oil. At the time, it was
200
prudent to keep these streams as condensate in our
10/06: NPDreclassifies
150
databasetoavoidabreakintheseriesforcrudeand
Asgard,Mikkel, Kristin
100
condensate. Other fields, including Troll and several
50
small fields also underwent similar reclassifications
since1994.
0
-50
Three factors have caused us to change the OMRs
Crude
Total Liquids
-100
accounting of Norways liquids output. First, we
believethatcomparisonsbetween2006and2007that -150
mighthavebeenimpactedbyabreakinseriesareless
1Q94 1Q97 1Q00 1Q03 1Q06 1Q09 1Q12
important today than the advantage gained from
morecloselymatchingtheNPDconvention.Second,matchingtheNPDconventionmoreaccuratelyreflects
the way thatNorwayspetroleum production satisfies world oil demand givenheightened interest in NGL
and condensate output. The revision improves nearterm forecasts by providing a better link to loading
schedules and by more accurately tracking fieldlevel trends for crude, NGLs and condensate. Finally, this
revision addresses a wider effort in our monthly oil database to better account for differences in liquids
qualities and to delineate between crude, NGL, and condensate production where data is accurate and
available.
OtherchangestoourfieldleveldatabaseincluderemovingsatellitefieldsValhall,Gullfaks,andHeimdalOst,
whichtheNPDincludesinalreadyexistingaggregates.Removingthesefieldsalsomeanstheydonotappear
inthe2012forecast,whichisthemainreasonfortherevisiontotheoutlookthismonth.Inordertobetter
model NGL output from Norway, we have also added field level NGL output detail for nine fields that
accountfor90%ofNorwaysNGLoutput.
UK July actual, August preliminary: Following a record low production level in July, preliminary
estimatesindicatemaintenancereducedoffshorecrudeoilproductionbyalmost150kb/dtoevenlower
levelsinAugustat770kb/d.InadditiontotheBuzzardfieldoutage,maintenanceintheTealAreaandat
the Schiehallion field was also heavy. Production is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter by
300kb/dover3Q11levels,largelyunchangedfromtheestimatelastmonth.Downwardrevisionstothe
2012 outlook take into account startup delays at the Causeway, Andrew, Solan, and Athena fields,
previouslyexpectedtocomeonlineinlatethisyear,butnowdelayedforayearormore.Higherthan
expectedoutputafterthecompletionofroutinemaintenanceatsomefieldsintheFortiessystemoffsets
most of these downwards revisions. In sum, 2012 output should remain at around 2011 levels,
supportedinlargepartbyBuzzardsreturntonormalproduction.
24
10N OVEMBER 2011
S UPPLY
mb/d
UK Oil Supply
mb/d
1.8
Norway Oil Supply
2.8
1.6
2.6
1.4
2.4
2.2
1.2
2.0
1.0
1.8
0.8
1.6
Jan
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011
2012 forecast
Jan
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011
2012 forecast
Non-OECD
Asia
China September actual: Chinas oil production fell by around 70kb/d in September to 4.0 mb/d, its
lowestlevelinoverayear.ThePengLaifieldoutagecurbedChinasoutputbyover120kb/dinSeptember
andlikelyevenmoreinOctober.DecliningproductionatJilin,Changqing,andothermatureCNOOCfields
also drew down Chinas output. News reports indicate the Peng Lai leaks were plugged in late
October/early November, but ConocoPhillips has not indicated a possible restart date. In October, there
werealsoreportsthatCNOOCfoundandquicklyfixedanotherspillatits20kb/dJinzhou93field,making
thisthethirdspillataCNOOCfacilitythisyear.Sourcesindicatethatananchorofashiprupturedapipeline
intheoilfieldandcausedtheleak.Weremainscepticalaboutreportsindicatingproductionhasincreased
atotherfacilitieswhiletheseproblemsareoccurring.
China Oil Supply

A more likely driver of production trends in the medium mb/d
4.4
term is the new resource tax on oil and gas that will go
into effect on 1 November. This particular tax change, 4.2
ceteris paribus, will mean that production is taxed at
510% of the value of the commodity, rather than the 4.0
volume of commodity. The reform redistributes some
3.8
production tax revenues from the federal government to
local governments and means a total tax take of around 3.6
$4/bbl, seven times higher than current levels. Analysts
Jul
Sep Nov Jan
Jan
Mar May
2008
2009
estimate that a 5% valuebased tax would reduce
2010
2011
Sinopecs earnings by 8%. However, the government is
2011 forecast
2012 forecast
alsoconsideringincreasingthewindfalltaxthresholdfrom
$40/bbl, which would benefit producers earnings by around 1520% if the threshold were raised to
$60/bbl.Also,thegovernmentisalreadyprovidingtaxbreaksforproductionatoffshorefields,inwestern
China(mostlyforenhancedoilrecovery),andforheavyoilproduction.Thesefieldsmightreceiveavalue
taxratebelowthe5%window.Wehavenotsubstantiallyalteredourshorttermoutlookasadirectresult
oftaxchangeshowever.
Other Asia August estimated: In other Asian countries, aggregate production increased in 3Q11 by
10kb/doverthepriorquarterto3.5mb/d,andfellbyover200kb/dyearonyear.Vietnam,Thailand,
India, Indonesia, and Malaysia all posted annual declines in this quarter largely due to mature field
decline.InVietnamthe25kb/dChimSaoand40kb/dTeGiacTrangfieldshavestartedinthelasttwo
months and should raise the countrys production by 25kb/d to 330kb/d in 4Q11. In Indonesia,
ExxonMobilreportedithadalmostfinishedawardingtheEPCcontractsforthe160kb/dCepuproject,
whichisexpectedtobeginrampingupduring20132015.
10N OVEMBER 2011
25
S UPPLY
Middle East
InSyria,sanctionshavebeguntohaveanimpactonoiloutput.UKbasedGulfsandssaidproductionfrom
its Khurbet East and Yousefieh fields had been lowered from 24kb/d to 6kb/d from the beginning of
Octoberduetolackofdomesticcrudestoragecapacity.WiththeexceptionofGulfsandsandCroatias
INA, oil companies are not revealing if their crude oil output has been curtailed. Recently, Syrias Oil
Ministerwasquotedassayingthatproductionhadbeenreducedbyaround110kb/dto250270kb/d.
Weassessthatthisestimateislikelyconservative,giventhatshippingdatadoesnotindicateanyexports
from the country in September or October, and given reported challenges in exporting oil products.
Additionally, antiAssad regime supporters could target oil and product deliveries to the domestic
market,thuscurbingoutputanddomesticproducttransit.
DespiteareportedheavymarketingefforttargetingIndia,Malaysia,andIndonesia,weexpectittotake
several more months before Syria can return to previous export levels. Before Syria can finalise new
contracts,Sytrolwillbechallengedtoobtainfinancingandtankerinsurance.Therefore,wehavefurther
reducedouroutputforecastforSyriaby80kb/din4Q11,whichwouldmeanan80kb/dyoydeclinein
4Q11.WeexpectSyrianoilproductiontodeclinebyafurtherannual20kb/din2012to320kb/d,which
isaround20kb/dlowerthanlastmonthsestimate.
Former Soviet Union (FSU)

Russia October actual: Russian oil output hit another kb/d
Russian Crude Production by
Company - Annual Change
postSoviethighof10.7mb/dinOctober,upslightlyfrom
last months levels and 90kb/d higher than last year. 300
GrowthfromRosneftsEasternSiberianfieldsisprimarily 200
responsible for Russias oil output growth, followed by 100
increased production from Gazprom (NGLs),
0
Gazpromneft, and TNKBP. Lukoils production has fallen -100
by 5.3% yearonyear, due in part to a precipitous 60%
-200
decline at the YuzhnoKhyluchuskoye field and other
2009
2010
2011
2012
mature field decline. It is also worth noting that
Yukos
Rosneft
Lukoil
TNK
Surgut
Gazpromneft
Gazpromnefts output is increasing with very little
PSAs
Tatneft
Bashneft
Sidanco
Slavneft
Others
greenfield
investment,
and
that
TNKBPs
Verkhnechonskoye output has more than doubled to around 120kb/d in October. Despite these
highlights,westillexpectRussiasoutputtogrowbyamodest0.9%nextyearto10.7mb/d,nevertheless
a 50kb/d increase from last months outlook. The upwards revision takes into account Gazpromnefts
impressiveperformanceoverthelastseveralmonths.
Russiasoutputcouldexceedourexpectationsin2012withtheintroductionofthe6066taxregime.The
overall effect of the regime change on oil companies cashflow and their willingness to invest in
stemmingoilfielddeclineremainsasubjectofmuchdebate.Asof1October,the65%to60%taxchange
reduces crude export duties using a formula as follows: [$4/bbl + 60% * (Urals price $25/bbl)].
However,oilcompanieslikelypaidadutyof$53/bblinOctober,thesamelevelasinSeptember,given
the increase in Urals prices. And although the regime shifts the tax burden from the upstream to the
downstream, companies also face a 6.5% higher mineral extraction tax from January 2012, higher
Transneft export tariffs, 57% higher excise taxes, and possible price controls if the price at the pump
increases by more than 10% in any 30day period. All of these factors could reduce the incentive of
producerstoinvestinbrownfieldproduction.
FSU net oil exports increased by 150kb/d to 9.0 mb/d in September as crude shipments climbed by
220kb/d, offsetting a 70kb/d decrease in product deliveries. Net oil exports remain close to yearago
levels,althoughcrudevolumeshavegrownby150kb/dto6.5mb/dandhaveoffseta150kb/dfallin
products.Themonthonmonthriseincrudeshipmentswasdrivenbyasharp250kb/dhikeinTransneft
deliveries after seasonal Russian refinery maintenance reduced domestic crude requirements. The
26
10N OVEMBER 2011
S UPPLY
largest beneficiary of this was Russias flagship Baltic port of Primorsk where shipments increased by
140kb/d. Indeed, reports suggest that scheduled maintenance on the Baltic Pipeline System (BPS)
feedingtheportwaspostponedatthebehestofproducers.IntheBlackSea,Novorossiyskexportscrept
up to 950kb/d (+30kb/d mom), their highest level since March after an uptick in Kazakhstani and
Azerbaijanideliveriestotheterminal.FlowsthroughtheDruzhbapipelineincreasedby80kb/dfollowing
a rebound in deliveries to Poland after its Plock refinery came out of maintenance. Outside Russia,
volumesthroughtheBTCandCPCpipelinesremainedflatat700kb/dand650kb/d,respectively.
FSU Net Exports of Crude & Petroleum Products
2009
2010
4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011
Jul 11
Aug 11 Sep 11
Latest month vs.

Aug 11 Sep 10
Crude
Black Sea
2.28
2.10
2.02
2.06
1.87
1.87
1.69
1.95
1.97
0.02
0.14
Baltic
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.48
1.57
1.37
1.34
1.33
1.45
0.13
-0.02
Arctic/FarEast
0.46
0.74
0.78
0.70
0.69
0.65
0.64
0.65
0.65
-0.01
-0.05
BTC
0.80
0.77
0.80
0.72
0.76
0.69
0.69
0.70
0.69
-0.01
-0.09
Crude Seaborne
5.15
5.22
5.19
4.96
4.89
4.58
4.36
4.63
4.76
0.13
-0.02
Druzhba Pipeline
1.11
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.12
1.18
1.17
1.14
1.22
0.08
0.04
Other Routes
0.40
0.42
0.43
0.53
0.54
0.54
0.55
0.52
0.54
0.02
0.14
Total Crude Exports

Of Which: Transneft1
6.66
6.76
6.76
6.63
6.55
6.30
6.08
6.29
6.52
0.22
0.15
0.25
0.43
3.93
4.00
4.02
4.15
4.16
4.09
4.05
3.98
4.23
Products
Fuel oil2
1.41
1.54
1.51
1.43
1.82
1.61
1.70
1.54
1.59
0.05
0.03
Gasoil
0.95
0.88
0.81
0.90
0.79
0.72
0.71
0.76
0.67
-0.08
-0.07
Other Products
0.53
0.43
0.37
0.48
0.53
0.36
0.40
0.36
0.32
-0.04
-0.11
Total Product
2.89
2.85
2.69
2.81
3.14
2.68
2.80
2.65
2.58
-0.07
-0.15
Total Exports
9.54
9.61
9.45
9.44
9.68
8.98
8.89
8.94
9.09
0.15
0.00
Imports
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.06
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
Net Exports
9.49
9.55
9.37
9.39
9.62
8.89
8.83
8.85
9.00
0.15
0.00
Sources: Argus Media Ltd, IEA estimates

1
Transneft data exclude Russian CPC volumes.

Includes Vacuum Gas Oil
ReportssuggestthattheBPS2pipelineisnowbeingfilled,withexportsscheduledtobegininDecember
from the Baltic port of Ust Luga. However, Transneft has indicated that the BPS2 will run at 200kb/d
throughoutitsfirstyearofoperation,significantlybelowits600kb/dcapacity.
2
Productexportsfellbyafurther70kb/dto2.58mb/dinSeptember,theirlowestlevelsinceend2009.Gasoil
shipments drove the decline, contracting by 80kb/d largely due to buoyant Russian distillate demand. In
contrast,fueloilflowsroseby50kb/d,afterRussianrefineriesranlessvacuumgasoilasafeedstockduring
heavy maintenance. The 150kb/d yearonyear fall in product exports was led by other products, here
includingnaphthaandgasoline,duetotherecentintroductionofthe90%lightproductduty.
Africa
Oil production in nonOPEC African countries increased by 20kb/d to 2.5 mb/d in 3Q11, stemming largely
fromsmallincreasesinSudanandGhana.In2012,newoilproductionshouldcomefromEquatorialGuinea,
whereanFPSOarrivedonemonthearlyatthe55kb/dAsengfieldandshouldbeginproductionthisyear.
Latin America
Brazil August actual: Brazils production averaged 2.2 mb/d in 3Q11, which is up 20kb/d from last
yearslevels.MaintenanceatoffshorefieldsledtothelowestlevelofRiodeJaneirooffshoreproduction
sinceNovember2008,at1.52mb/dinAugust.StartupattheMarlimSulfieldandnewwellsatfieldsin
theCamposbasinmitigatedongoingfieldmaintenanceinSeptember.In4Q11,weexpectproductionto
reboundto2.3mb/d,andoutputshouldgrowby6.5%in2012.Brazil'sSenaterecentlyapprovedaplan
todistributeoilroyaltiesmorewidelyamongstates,whichisanincrementalsteptowardsrelaunching
the development of Brazils offshore reserves. Potential law suits from oilproducing states that would
loserevenueandseverallegislativehurdlescouldstillposeobstaclestotheplan.
10N OVEMBER 2011
27
OECD S TOCKS
OECD STOCKS
Summary
OECD industry oil stocks declined by 11.8mb to 2684mb in September. Inventory levels stood
belowthefiveyearaverageforathirdconsecutivemonth,forthefirsttimesince2004.Declinesin
crudeoilholdingsdominatedinSeptember,butmiddledistillatesandfueloilalsofell,whilegasoline
andotherproductsstocksrose.
OECD forward demand cover dropped to 57.9days in September, from 58.6days in August, yet
OECDstockcoverstillremains1.5daysabovethefiveyearaverage.Adeclineinfueloilholdingsand
amoderate uptickin demandexpectedoverthe next three monthsbroughtfueloilcoverlowerby
2.5daystoastillstrong43.5days.
Preliminarydatasuggestasharp34.3mbdrawinOctoberOECDindustrystocks,withproductstocks
plummeting22.2mbaftersteepdeclinesinUSdistillates.AstrongstockdrawinEuropecontributed
toacounterseasonal13.8mbreductionincrudeholdings.
Shorttermoilfloatingstorageroseby2.6mb,from43.4mbinSeptemberto46.0mbinOctober.
Increases in Iranian crude oil floating storage boosted offshore crude oil inventory levels by almost
13mb, but tight fundamentals and a backwardated market structure completely drained around
10mbofproductfloatingstorageheldoffWestAfrica,theMediterraneanandAsiaPacific.
mb
OECD Total Oil Stocks
OECD Industry Total Oil Stocks
mb
2,800
200
2,750
150
2,700
100
2,650
50
2,600
2,550
Relative to Five-Year Average
-50
2,500
Jan Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
-100
Sep 09 Mar 10
Pacific
Europe
Sep 10
Mar 11 Sep 11
North Am erica
OECD
OECD Inventories at End-September and Revisions to Preliminary Data

OECDindustryoilinventoriesfellby11.8mbinSeptember,to2684mbor57.9daysofforwarddemand
cover.Themonthlydeclinewassharperthanthefiveyearaverage8.0mbdraw.Inventorylevelsstood
belowthefiveyearaverageforathirdconsecutivemonth,thefirsttimethishasoccurredsince2004.
WeakerthanseasonalbuildsduringJulyandAugust,aswellasastrongerSeptemberdraw,widenedthe
deficitversusfiveyearaveragelevelsto22.5mb.
Preliminary Industry Stock Change in September 2011 and Third Quarter 2011
(million barrels)
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
1
Other Oils
Total Oil
N. Am
Europe
Pacific
-15.3
3.7
1.4
-4.1
0.6
1.5
-0.3
-14.1
-2.6
-0.4
-5.6
-2.6
0.9
-7.6
-0.5
-10.7
6.5
3.8
-0.6
1.0
2.4
6.5
0.0
13.1
1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.
28
September (preliminary)
Third Quarter 2011

Total
N. Am
Europe
Pacific
Total
N. Am
Europe
Pacific
Total
-11.4
7.0
-4.7
-5.7
3.8
0.4
-0.8
-11.8
-0.51
0.12
0.05
-0.14
0.02
0.05
-0.01
-0.47
-0.09
-0.01
-0.19
-0.09
0.03
-0.25
-0.02
-0.36
0.22
0.13
-0.02
0.03
0.08
0.22
0.00
0.44
-0.38
0.23
-0.16
-0.19
0.13
0.01
-0.03
-0.39
-0.34
0.02
0.19
-0.02
0.15
0.34
0.08
0.08
-0.11
-0.02
-0.10
0.01
0.07
-0.04
-0.02
-0.17
0.02
0.04
0.02
-0.01
0.11
0.16
0.00
0.18
-0.43
0.04
0.11
-0.02
0.33
0.46
0.05
0.08
10N OVEMBER 2011
OECD S TOCKS
In September, an 11.4mb decline in crude holdings dominated, while products remained largely
unchanged from the previous month. Middle distillates and fuel oil fell by 4.7mb and 5.7mb,
respectively. Upward support came from stronger gains in gasoline and other products (7.0mb and
3.8mb,respectively).
Middledistillateinventoriescontractedby4.7mbto565mbinSeptemberandforwarddemandcover
dropped to 33.0days. The stock overhang observed during the past two years has dissipated and
distillates stood for the second consecutive month at a deficit versus the fiveyear average in both
absoluteandcoverterms.Aheadofthewinterheatingseasoninthenorthernhemisphere,onlyNorth
Americaretainsasizeabledistillatebuffer,butweeklydatafromtheUSsuggestafurthersharpdecline
inmiddledistillateholdingsinOctober.
days
OECD Middle Distillate Stocks

days
40
57
38
52
36
47
34
42
32
37
30
32
28
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
27
Jan
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
OECD Fuel Oil Stocks

Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Fuel oil inventories declined by 5.7mb to 128mb in September. US and European inventories fell
counterseasonallyandthedeficitversusthefiveyearaveragewidenedto16.8mb.Structuraldeclinein
OECD fuel oil demand has led to consistent reduction in inventories. Nonetheless, the contraction
inindustry stocks has lagged declining demand, so that forward demand cover had actually risen in
recentyears.ButcounterseasonaldrawssinceAprilbroughtdemandcoverdownfrom7.2daysabove
thefiveyearaverageto1.1days.
OECDstockswererevised3.7mbhigherinAugust,uponreceiptofmorecompletemonthlysubmissions
from the member countries. This implies a 0.9mb build in August inventory levels, contrasting with
apreviously reported 3.4mb draw. Upward adjustments were centred on other oils, fuel oil and
gasolineandoutweigheda6.0mbdownwardrevisiontodistillateholdingsinNorthAmerica.
Revisions versus 12 October 2011 Oil Market Report

(million barrels)
North America
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
1
Other Oils
Total Oil
Europe
Pacific
Jul-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
-1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-1.1
-1.7
2.6
-6.0
-0.3
-5.5
-9.2
8.5
-2.5
0.1
-0.3
1.2
1.8
1.6
4.3
-3.9
0.5
1.5
-0.4
0.2
4.7
4.2
8.7
-4.4
5.8
Jul-11
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
OECD
Aug-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.5
0.4
-0.9
-0.3
1.2
1.8
1.6
4.3
-4.0
-0.6
-0.5
2.0
-6.0
4.3
-0.8
-0.4
4.6
3.7
1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.
PreliminarydatasuggestOECDindustrystocksplummetedby34.3mbinOctober,morethandoublethe
fiveyear average 14.4mb. Product inventories fell by 22.2mb, with the majority of the decline
stemming from distillates in the US (largely diesel). A sharp draw in Europe contributed to a
counterseasonal 13.8mb reduction in crude holdings. Meanwhile, shortterm oil floating storage rose
by2.6mbto46.0mbinOctober.
10N OVEMBER 2011
29
OECD S TOCKS
Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes

OECD North America
North American industry oil stocks declined by 14.1mb to 1346mb in September, in strong contrast
withafiveyearaveragebuildof10.4mb.Crudeoilinventoriesplummetedby15.3mb,drivenbydraws
intheUS.AfinalcrudecargofromtheUSStrategicPetroleumReserve(SPR)derivingfromtheIEAsLibya
CollectiveActionwasdeliveredatthebeginningofSeptember,butacombinationofhealthycruderuns
and low imports drained US crude stocks by 17.2mb and reduced the stock overhang to 3.0mb. Yet,
4.4mbofcrudebroughtashorefromfloatingstorageneartheUSGulfcushionedtheSeptemberdraw.
North American refined product inventories rose by 1.5mb, as gains in gasoline and distillates
outweighedacounterseasonaldeclineinfueloil.
mb
520
OECD North America Crude Oil

Stocks
OECD North America Fuel Oil Stocks
mb
55
500
480
50
460
440
45
420
400
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
40
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
US EIA weekly data up to 28 October point to a seasonal 9.8mb draw in US commercial stocks in
October. US refineries entered maintenance season and, consequently, crude and other oils rose by
7.7mb, while refined products fell by 17.5mb. Middle distillates contracted by a sharp 15.7mb, as
inventories of diesel plummeted on strong industry demand and exports, while heating oil and jet
kerosene stocks declined modestly. As such, distillate inventories fell below the fiveyear average.
October fuel oil holdings gained 2.7mb and regained their fiveyear range after a sharp drop the
previousmonth.
mb
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Jan
US Weekly Total Distillate Stocks
mb
45
US Weekly Cushing Crude Stocks
40
35
30
25
20
Source: EIA
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
15
Source: EIA
10
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
Afterdeclinestotallingnearly10mbduringthepastsixmonths,crudelevelsatCushing,Oklahomarose
by2.0mbto32.1mbinOctober.However,persistentWTIbackwardationmayleadtofurtherCushing
stockdraws.TheOctoberbuildcoincidedwithanestimated10mbincreaseinworkingstoragecapacity
atCushingfollowingthecompletionofnewstoragetanks.TheUSEIAssemiannualsurveyputworking
storagecapacityat48mbinMarchandSeptembercapacitylevelswillbepublishedinNovember.
30
10N OVEMBER 2011
OECD S TOCKS
OECD Europe
Industry oil inventories in Europe fell by 10.7mb to 916mb in September, the lowest level since
November 2007. However, a milderthanseasonal monthly draw narrowed the deficit versus the five
year average to 33.2mb. Crude holdings declined by 2.6mb and remained at their lowest since 2003.
The restart of Libyan exports may provide relief to a European crude market that looks constrained in
absolute terms, although forward cover for refinery runs remained near average levels at 25.3days in
September. European product holdings dropped by 7.6mb. Gasoline declined modestly, but distillates
fellby5.6mbandfueloilstockscontractedby2.6mb.
mb
OECD Europe Crude Oil Stocks
mb
360
320
350
300
340
OECD Europe Middle Distillate Stocks
280
330
260
320
240
310
300
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
220
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
PreliminarydatafromEuroilstocksuggestafurther16.2mbstockdrawinEU15andNorwayinOctober.
Crudeinventoriesledthedeclinebyfalling12.3mb,incontrastwithafiveyearaveragebuildof3.4mb.
Productholdingsdroppedby3.8mbdrivenbya3.0mbdecreaseinmiddledistillates.Refinedproduct
stocksheldinindependentstorageinnorthwestEuropefellonstrongdrawsingasoil.Thismightsignal
that winter restocking of consumer reserves is underway and latest reports indicate German enduser
heatingoilstocksroseto59%atendSeptember,upsteadilyfromJulys53%andAugusts56%reading.
OECD Pacific
Commercial oil inventories in the OECD Pacific rose by 13.1mb to 421mb in September. Crude stocks
increased by 6.5mb, in contrast to a fiveyear average 3.4mb decline. Lower refinery throughputs
boosted crude stocks in Japan by 2.4mb, while higher imports led a 3.9mb gain in crude holdings in
Korea. OECD Pacific crude oil stocks came back within the fiveyear range in September, after having
beenwellbelowtherangeforthepastthreemonths.
mb
OECD Pacific Crude Oil Stocks
mb
190
220
180
200
170
180
160
160
150
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
OECD Pacific Total Products Stocks
140
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Productstocksgained6.5mbinSeptember,withthemajorityoftheincreasestemmingfroma4.0mb
surgeinJapanesegasolineinventoriesreportedbytheMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry(METI).
However,thisgainisnotvisibleintheweeklydatafromthePetroleumAssociationofJapan(PAJ)and
thusitremainstobeseenwhetherthedatapointwillberevisedlater.
10N OVEMBER 2011
31
OECD S TOCKS
mb
8
mb
16
Japan Weekly Jet Fuel Stocks
Japan Weekly Gasoil/Diesel Stocks
14
12
5
10
Source: PAJ
Source: PAJ
3
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
8
Jan
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
Weekly data from the PAJ suggest a counterseasonal decline of 8.3mb in Japanese industry oil
inventoriesinOctober.Crudeoilstocksfellby4.6mb,likelyonlowerimports.Productstocksdropped
0.9mb, led by a 1.3mb decrease in gasoil. Jet/kerosene stocks gained 0.9mb, but jet fuel inventories
remained below the fiveyear range amid kerosene restocking ahead of winter heating season.
Meanwhile, PAJ revised weekly inventory data for several product categories from July to October.
Product stocks were adjusted on average 2.7% lower at endSeptember, with the largest revisions in
gasoline(5.8%)anddistillates(3.5%).
Recent Developments in China and Singapore Stocks

According to China Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals (OGP), Chinese commercial oil inventories fell by the
equivalent of 2.9mb in September (data are reported in terms of percentage stock change). Crude oil
holdingsroseby3.0%(6.6mb)onreducedrefineryrunsbecauseofscheduledmaintenanceandrefiners
reluctancetoboostproductionamiddismalmargins.Productstocksdroppedforthefourthconsecutive
month,ledbyasharpdeclineindiesel(12.7%or8.9mb).Inaddition,bothgasolineandkerosenestocks
fellby0.3%(0.2mb)and3.8%(0.5mb),respectively.
mb
20
China Monthly Oil Stock Change*
mb
15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
So urce: China Oil, Gas and P etro chemicals
(15)
Jan 11
Crude
Mar 11
Gasoline
May 11
Jul 11
Gasoil
Sep 11
Kerosene
*Since A ugust 2010, COGP o nly repo rts percentage sto ck change
Singapore Weekly Middle Distillate

Stocks
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4 Source: International Ent erprise
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Oct
5-yr Average
2011
Singaporeonshoreinventoriesfellby2.2mbinOctober,drivenbyadrawinmiddledistillateholdings.
Middle distillate stocks declined by 3.0mb following a recent outage at Shells refinery, which is still
operatingatreducedrates,andhigherregionaldemandforgasoil.Moreover,fueloilinventoriesedged
downby0.6mb,whilelightdistillatestocksroseby1.5mb,asseasonalpeakdemandhasended.
32
10N OVEMBER 2011
OECD S TOCKS
Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks

(in days of forward demand and millions barrels of total oil)
Days1
Days
Million Barrels
60
mb
1,450
58
1,400
56
1,350
North America
54
North America
1,300
52
1,250
50
48
1,200
46
1,150
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Days
72
Sep
Nov
Jan
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Avg 2006-2010
2011
mb
1,020
Europe
70
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Europe
1,000
68
980
66
960
64
62
940
60
920
58
900
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Days
58
Sep
Nov
Jan
May
mb
480
Pacific
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Pacific
460
440
52
420
50
400
48
46
380
44
360
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Days
62
Sep
Nov
Jan
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
mb
2,800
OECD Total Oil
60
2,750
58
2,700
56
2,650
54
2,600
52
2,550
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
OECD Total Oil
2,500
50
Jan
Mar
Range 2006-2010
2010
56
54
Jan
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Mar
May
Range 2006-2010
2010
Jul
Sep
Nov
Avg 2006-2010
2011
Jan
Jan
Mar
1 Days of forward demand are based on average demand over the next three months
10N OVEMBER 2011
May
Range 2006-2010
2010
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2006-2010
2011
33
P RICES
PRICES
Summary
The Euro zone debt crisis hung over the market for most of October and early November but,
ultimately, supply and demand fundamentals appeared to be the main drivers of price direction.
FuturespricesforbenchmarkcrudeswereondivergentpathsinOctober,withWTIonasolidupward
trendwhileBrenttradedinalowerrange.Atwriting,Brentwastradingaround$114/bblandWTIat
$96/bbl.
Inacontentious32voteon18October,CFTCCommissionersvotedinfavourofestablishingfederal
speculativepositionslimitson28commodities,includingNYMEXnaturalgas,crudeoil,gasolineand
heatingoil.PartoftheDoddFrankfinanciallegislationpassedbytheUSCongress,positionlimitsare
aimed at curbing excessive speculation in commodity derivatives markets. However, critics point to
therisksoflowermarketliquidity,higherhedgingcostsandincreasedmarketvolatility.
Refining margins generally improved in all regions in October, largely supported by a strong
increaseinmiddledistillatecrackspreads.MovingintoNovember,marginscontinuedtoseesawin
linewithvolatilecrudemarkets,decliningtowardstheendofthefirstweekasproductpricesfailedto
keeptrackwitharenewedincreaseincrudeprices.
CrudetankerfreightratespostedarecoveryduringOctober,withbenchmarkratesfirmingforthe
firsttimesinceearlysummer.Thepictureforproducttankermarketswasmixed.
$/bbl
Crude Futures
Front Month Close
NYMEX WTI & ICE Brent

Forward Price Curves
$/bbl
130
115
120
4Nov2011
110
110
105
100
100
90
80
95
Source: ICE, NYMEX
70
Oct 10
90
Jan 11
Apr 11
NYMEX WTI
Jul 11
Oct 11
ICE Brent
Source: ICE, NYMEX
M1 2
NYMEX WTI
9 10 11 12
ICE Brent
Market Overview
The Euro zone sovereign debt crisis hung over the market like the sword of Damocles for most of
OctoberandearlyNovemberbut,ultimately,supplyanddemandfundamentalsappearedtobethemain
driversofpricedirection.FuturespricesforbenchmarkcrudeswereondivergentpathsinOctober,with
WTIonasolidupwardtrendinlinewithstrongerregionalfundamentals.Bycontrast,Brentcrudetraded
in a lower range, pressured in part by the Euro zone crisis as well as from rising Libyan output and a
recoveryinNorthSeasupplies.
In October, WTI rose by around $0.80/bbl to an average $86.43/bbl while Brent was down by over
$1/bbl at $108.79/bbl. By early November, benchmark crudes had strengthened relative to October
average levels. WTI was last trading at $96/bbl, or about $10/bbl plus above October levels. Brent
reboundedbyasmaller$5.20/bbloverthesameperiod,lasttradingaround$114/bbl.
The everpresent threat of a farreaching financial collapse from the worsening economic quagmire in
Greece and Italy generated a raft of daily headlines that injected a high level of trading volatility in
34
10 N OVEMBER 2011
P RICES
OctoberandearlyNovember.ExpectationsthattheG20ministersmeetinginCanneswouldagreeviable
rescue packages proved overly optimistic. While G20 leaders managed to placate markets, the very
public disagreements over strategy among member countries laid bare some starkly divergent views.
Greeces Prime Minister George Papandreou threw a spanner in the works before the gathering by
announcingthatthecountrywouldholdareferendumontheproposedbailoutplan,seenaslikelyto
havebeenrejectedbythepopulace.Followingasharpdownturninmarkets,andunderpressurefrom
G20leaders,theprimeministerbacktrackedbuttheilladvisedreferendumproposalcosthimhisjob.
NYMEX WTI vs S&P 500
US$/bbl
120
1500
110
NYMEX WTI vs US Dollar Index
US$/bbl
120
Index
110
1400
Index
70
Source: ICE, NYMEX
75
100
100
1300
1200
80
70
Source: NYMEX
60
Jan 10
Jul 10
NYMEX WTI
Jan 11
80
85
1100
70
1000
60
90
Jan 10
Jul 11
S&P 500 (RHS)
80
90
90
Jul 10
NYMEX WTI
Jan 11
Jul 11
US Dollar Index (inversed RHS)
WiththecrisisinGreeceavertedfornow,marketattentionhasshiftedtoItalywhereaweakfinancial
reformpackagehastriggeredadangerousrisein10yeargovernmentbonds.Oilmarketsareinextricably
linked to the deterioration in the European debt situation given the impact on financial markets, the
heightened risk of global recession, and the corresponding potential loss of oil demand. Amid all the
economic uncertainty, for now, however, prices are finding something of a floor ahead of the winter
demand season, amid a tighter inventory situation and from ongoing political turmoil affecting Libya,
Iran,Iraq,SyriaandYemen.
Upward price momentum in recent days has centred on the tense situation over Irans nuclear
programme,triggeringa$23/bblriseinoilpricesinearlyNovember.Themuchpublicisedreleaseofa
new IAEA report on Irans nuclear programme, following on the heels of earlier accusations of Iranian
involvement in an attempt on the life of a Saudi diplomat in Washington, setoff a series of verbal
exchangesbetweenTehranandtheWestaswellastriggeringalarmbellswithintheMiddleEastregion.
Whileatwritingheightenedtensionsarestillgeneratingbullishmarketpressure,manyanalystsbelieve
thesituationwillbecontained.
Libyan oil production recovered at a fasterthanexpected pace in October despite the escalation in
violence as the endgame neared after eight months of civil war. However, the effect of higher
productiononabsolutepriceshasbeenmarginaltodate,withthelargerimpactbeingfeltonsweetand
sourpricespreads.Theformalendtohostilitieswasannouncedon23Octoberfollowingthecaptureof
the last stronghold of Sirte and subsequent death of Colonel Gaddafi. Against this daunting backdrop,
officialswereabletorampupoutputfromanaverage75kb/dinSeptemberto350kb/dinOctober.By
earlyNovember,outputwasabove500kb/d(seeOPECSupply,LibyanProductionOutpacesForecast).
ThereturnofLibyancrudetothemarkethasbeenpartiallycounteredbycontinuedsupplydisruptionsin
NigeriaandreducedoutputoverthepasttwomonthsfromSaudiArabia.FormostofOctoberatighter
supplysituationprevailedinEuropeandAsia,leadingtostrongpremiumsforphysicalcrudeprices.Even
the restoration of North Sea supplies following an unplanned shutin of output from the key Buzzard
fieldoverthepastsixmonthshasfailedtoknockBrentoffitsloftierperch.WhileICEBrentfutureswere
marginally lower on average in October, prices in early November were still trading above levels seen
overthepastthreemonths.
10 N OVEMBER 2011
35
P RICES
$/bbl
Crude Futures
Front Month Spreads
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Jan 11
Crude Futures
Forward Spreads
$/bbl
10
Source: ICE, NYMEX
5
0
-5
-10
Contango
Source: ICE, NYMEX
Apr 11
WTI M1-M2
Jul 11
Oct 11
Brent M1-M2
-15
Jan 11
Apr 11
WTI M1-M12
Jul 11
Oct 11
Brent M1-M12
Underscoring current strong fundamentals, forward prices for regional benchmarks Brent, WTI and
Dubai are all in backwardation, socalled because prompt prices are higher than outer months. While
Brenthasbeeninbackwardationformuchofthisyear,significantly,WTIendeditslongcontangostreak
inlateOctober,flippingintobackwardationforthefirsttimesincelate2008.Theshiftinpricestructure
reflects a growing consensus of tighter prompt market
$/bbl
NYMEX WTI vs ICE Brent
fundamentals. The WTI M1M2 futures contracts was
0
averagingaround$0.13/bblinearlyNovembercompared
with an average $0.13/bbl in October and $0.20/bbl in
-5
September. The WTI M1M12 contract showed an even
-10
deeper backwardation, averaging around $1.30/bbl in
-15
early November compared with $0.88/bbl in October
and$2.55/bblinSeptember.
-20
-25
As a result of relatively softer Brent prices and stronger
Source: ICE, NYMEX
-30
WTI, the spread between the two grades saw an
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
Jul 11
Oct 11
unprecedented narrowing starting on 25October. WTIs
discounttoBrentnarrowedbyaround$2/bblonaverage
for the month, to $22.36/bbl, in October. But the modest monthly change masks the steady erosion
overthemonth,whichatonepointreached$15/bbl.ByearlyNovember,theWTIBrentdiscountwas
runningabout$1618/bbl.
Prompt Month Oil Futures Prices

(monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl)
Aug
NYMEX
Light Sweet Crude Oil
RBOB
No.2 Heating Oil
No.2 Heating Oil ($/mmbtu)
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
ICE
Brent
Gasoil
Sep
Oct
Oct-Sep
Avg Chg
% Week Commencing:
Chg 03 Oct
10 Oct 17 Oct
24 Oct
31 Oct
86.34 85.61 86.43

120.53 114.46 112.61
123.92 123.22 124.27
21.27 21.15 21.33
3.98
3.85
3.62
0.82
-1.86
1.04
0.18
-0.23
0.9
-1.6
0.8
0.8
-6.2
79.71
108.38
117.37
20.15
3.58
85.56
115.70
124.07
21.30
3.58
86.71
113.58
126.59
21.73
3.62
92.38
93.24
113.10 110.88
128.34 127.60
22.03
21.91
3.66
3.81
109.93 109.91 108.79
-1.12
-1.0
103.17
111.37
109.80
110.65 110.25
125.27 124.89 123.84
-1.05
-0.8
117.49
123.60
125.94
127.76 127.11
Prompt Month Differentials

NYMEX WTI - ICE Brent
1.94
-23.46
-25.80
-23.10
-18.27
-17.00
NYMEX No.2 Heating Oil - WTI
37.58
37.61
37.84
0.23
37.67
38.50
39.88
35.95
34.35
NYMEX RBOB - WTI
34.19
28.85
26.18
-2.67
28.67
30.14
26.87
20.72
17.63
NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack (RBOB)

NYMEX No.2 - Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
ICE Gasoil - ICE Brent
35.32
17.29
15.35
31.77
17.31
14.98
30.07
17.71
15.05
-1.71
0.40
0.07
31.67
16.57
14.33
32.93
17.72
12.23
31.21
18.11
16.14
25.80
18.37
17.11
23.21
18.10
16.86
Source: ICE, NYMEX
36
-23.59 -24.30 -22.36
10 N OVEMBER 2011
P RICES
Futures Markets
Activity Levels
OpeninterestinWTIcontractsinNewYorkplungedinOctobertoaoneyearlowastraderslimitedtheir
exposuresinriskyassets.OpeninterestinfuturesonlycontractsdecreasedinOctoberfrom1.43million
to 1.35 million. Meanwhile, open interest in futures and options contracts decreased by 8.5% to
2.56millioncontracts.Duringthesameperiod,openinterestinLondonICEWTIcontractsincreasedin
futuresonlycontractsto0.44millionanddecreasedincombinedcontractsto0.50million.
NYMEX WTI Mth1
'000
Contracts
Open Interest
$/bbl
'000
Contracts
1,600
120
200
1,500
100
100
1,400
80
60
-100
1,300
1,200
40
1,100
Source: CFTC, NYMEX
1,000
20
Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11

Open Interest
NYMEX WTI Mth1
Net Positions in WTI Futures

Source: CFTC, NYMEX
$/bbl
100
95
90
85
80
-200
75
06 Sep
20 Sep
04 Oct
Producers
Money Managers
Non-Reportables
18 Oct
01 Nov
Swap Dealers
Other Reportables
NYMEX WTI
Money managers increased their bets on rising crude oil prices for four straight weeks, sending the
number of net futures long holdings to their highest since June in the week ending 25 October as a
response to better than expected economic growth in the US and optimism over EU agreement on a
debtdeal.However,moneymanagersnetlongpositiondeclinedintheweekending1Novemberdueto
concerns over the future of a European debt deal after the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
announced a referendum on the countrys bailout package. Overall, in October, net futures long
positionsofmanagedmoneytradersincreasedfrom126093to179845contractsinNewYork.Similarly,
money managers increased their Brent futures net long positions by 106.7% from 24776 to
51212contracts.
ProducersincreasedtheirnetfuturesshortpositionsinOctober;theyheld22.3%oftheshortand13.1%
of the long contracts in CME WTI futuresonly contracts. Swap dealers, who accounted for 33.8% and
36.9% of the open interest on the long side and short side, respectively, switched to hold 42192 net
shortpositionsbyreducingtheirgrosslongpositiontoasevenmonthlowof454231contractsinthe
weekending1November2011.
However, producers trading activity in London WTI contracts showed an opposite pattern from CME
WTIcontracts.ProducersdecreasedtheirnetshortpositionsinLondonICEWTIcontractsby70%from
28313to8446contractsoverthesameperiod.Swapdealers,ontheotherhand,switchedtoholdanet
shortposition(8412)intheweekending1November2011.
MF Global, one of the most active brokers by volume at CMEs metals and energy exchanges in New
York,filedforbankruptcyprotectionon31October2011afteraseriesofcreditratingdowngradesdue
to its $6.3billion proprietary trade on euro zone sovereign debt. The CFTC revealed that MF Globals
commoditycustomerfundshavea$633millionshortfall,orabout11.6percent,outofasegregatedfund
requirement of about $5.4 billion. Following the bankruptcy protection, MF Global customer accounts
were also frozen due to inability to transfer customer accounts to other brokerage firms. On the day
bankruptcywasannounced,thevolumeinCMEWTIcontractsmorethanhalved.However,theimpactof
this trade disruption on prices was very limited. Although trading volume in later days rebounded
somewhat,thevolumewasat518394contractson4November2011,lessthanhalfofitsOctoberhigh
of1.088millioncontracts.
10 N OVEMBER 2011
37
P RICES
NYMEX RBOB futures and combined open interest declined by more than 1.45% in October. Open
interestinNYMEXheatingoildecreasedby9.9%to296818contractswhileopeninterestinnaturalgas
marketsincreasedby2.3%to960199contracts.
IndexinvestorsreducedtheirlongexposureincommoditiesinSeptember2011bymorethan$50billion.
They withdrew $7.2billion from Light Sweet Crude Oil, both on and offexchange traded derivatives
contracts, in September to a ninemonth low of 646000 contracts, equivalent to $51.6 billion in
notionalvalue.
Positions on NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Futures Contracts
Thousand Contracts
01 November 2011
Producers' Positions
Swap Dealers' Positions
Money Managers' Positions
Others' Positions
Non-Reportable Positions
Open Interest
Source: CFTC
Long
Short
176.2
203.3
229.3
94.4
69.5
300.3
245.5
49.4
112.6
64.9
Net
-124.1
-42.2
179.8
-18.2
4.7
1345.0
Long/Short
Short
Short
Long
Short
Long
Net from Prev.
Net Vs Last
Week
Month
7.0
-15.9
-4.3
6.2
7.0
-43.9
3.5
-55.4
53.8
-0.3
-1.6
-86.8
Market Regulation
In a contentious 32 vote on 18 October, CFTC Commissioners voted in favour of establishing federal
speculative positions limits on 28 commodities, including NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, gasoline and
heatingoil,alongwithanumberofmetalsandgrainscontracts.PositionlimitsformpartoftheDodd
FrankfinanciallegislationpassedbytheUSCongressandareaimedatcurbingexcessivespeculationin
commodity derivatives markets. However, critics point to the risks of lower market liquidity, higher
hedgingcostsandincreasedmarketvolatility(seeRescuingCommoditiesfromSpeculators?).
At the same meeting, the CFTC also passed a final rule on the operation of derivatives clearing
organisations(DCOs).Thefinalrulebringstogetherfivepreviousproposalsintoasinglerulemakingwith
a few revisions. The rule covers requirements for risk and information management, requirements for
financialresourcesaswellasrequirementsforprocessing,clearingandtransferofcustomerpositions;in
additiontogeneralregulationsonDCOs.
TheCFTCalsoproposedanotherextensiontotheeffectivedatefortheprovisionsintheswapregulatory
regime that would have gone into effect on 16July2011 as established by the DoddFrank Act. The
proposed amendment extends CFTCs temporary relief order, initially issued on 14 July 2011, until
16July2012from31December2011.
As noted in a previous OMR, the European Commission released its extensive revision to Markets in
FinancialInstrumentsDirective(MiFID)on20October2011.Thenewproposalincreasestheroleofthe
European Securities and Market Authority (ESMA). In order to prevent regulatory arbitrage and
distortion from competition, MiFID increased the ESMAs role in the implementation of the new legal
proposals. According to MiFID, all trading of derivatives which are eligible for clearing and which are
sufficiently liquid, as assessed and determined by ESMA, will move to either regulated markets,
Multilateral Trading Facilities (MTFs) or Organised Trading Facilities (OTFs). MiFID is also seeking to
introduce a position reporting obligation by category of trader, similar to the Large Trader Reporting
SystemintheUS.Furthermore,MiFIDwillseektocurbspeculativetradingincommodityderivativesby
giving harmonised and comprehensive powers to financial regulators to monitor and intervene at any
stage in the trading activity, including hard position limits, if there are concerns in terms of market
integrity or orderly functioning of markets. Trading venues will also be required to adopt appropriate
limitsontraderspositiontomaintainmarketintegrityandefficiency.
38
10 N OVEMBER 2011
P RICES
Rescuing Commodities from Speculators?

In a contentious 32 vote on 18 October, the US CFTC Commissioners approved final rules on federal
speculative positions limits on commodity futures, options and swaps positions of speculators for
28commodities.TheseincludeNYMEXnaturalgas,crudeoil,gasolineandheatingoil,alongwithanumber
ofmetalsandgrainscontracts.
Inseekingtoprohibitexcessivespeculationanditspossibleeffectonpricevolatilityinfuturesmarkets,the
Commission adopted a twostage approach for hard position limits as preventive medicine for excessive
speculation.Themainfeaturesofthefinalrulemakinginclude:
Spotmonthlimits,effectivesixtydaysafterthetermswapisdefinedbytheCommission,whichis
expected in December 2011. In the first stage, the Commission will take over the existing spot
month limits set by exchanges. In the second stage, the Commission will make its own
determinationonthespotmonthlimitbasedonthe25%ofestimateddeliverablesupply.Thespot
monthlimitwillbeadjustedbienniallyforagriculturalcontractsandannuallyforenergyandmetal
contracts. That is to say, the earliest adjustment to energy contracts spot month limits based on
estimateddeliverablesupplycanbemadeinthefirstquarterof2013.
Nonspotmonth and allmonthscombined position limits for legacy agricultural contracts will go
into effect sixty days after the Commission defines the term swap. For nonlegacy agricultural,
energyandmetalcontracts,thepositionlimitswillbeeffectiveaftertheCommissionreceivesone
yearofopeninterestonswapsdata.Thereafter,nonspotmonthandallmonthscombinedposition
limitswillbeadjustedeverytwoyearsbasedontheprevioustwoyearsopeninterest.Therules
call for limits on nonspot month and allmonthscombined positions up to 10% of the sum of
futures,clearedandunclearedswapsopeninterestforthefirst25000contractsownedbyatrader
and2.5%thereafter.
The cashsettled natural gas contract willbe subjecttospot month andnonspotmonthposition

limitssetatfivetimesthelimitthatappliestothephysicaldeliverynaturalgascontract.
Bonafide hedging positions will not count towards the limits. Exemptions for bona fide hedging
transactions have been broadened to include certain anticipated merchandising transactions,
royalties,andservicecontractsinthefinalrulemaking.Hedgeexemptionsneedtobeapprovedby
theCommission,ratherthantheexchanges.Also,ifaswapdealerscounterpartyisahedger,ora
swap dealer completes a trade on behalf of a bona fide hedger, then the swap dealer might use
bonafideexemptionforthisspecifictradeanditwillnotbecountedtowardspositionlimits.
The final rule requires quarterly position visibility reporting requirements for traders exceeding a
nonspotmonthpositionvisibilitylevelinenergyandmetalcontracts.
Proponents argue that hard position limits on speculative activity ensure the effective functioning of the
market by minimising price disruption that could be caused by excessive speculation. They further argue
thatahardpositionlimitisnecessarytoreduceconcentrationofmarketshareincommoditymarkets.This
willensurethatmarketswouldbemadeupofabroadgroupofmarketparticipantswithadiversityofviews,
thereby preventing distortion in market prices. The limit on the concentration of market share is also
deemednecessarytocutsystemicrisk.Finally,theyarguethatrulebasedhardpositionlimitsarepreferable
to position accountability levels, in that they provide much more certainty as well as preventing arbitrary
interventioninthemarket.
Opponentshavemadethepointthatnineagriculturalcontractssubjecttopositionlimitswerenotspared
record price increases and have noted that substantive comments received by the CFTC were overlooked
duringrulemaking.Theyfurtherexpressedconcernsovertheinadequacyofcostbenefitanalysis,restrictive
interpretation of bona fide hedging, lack of clarity on how the Commission reached its proposed position
limitformula,thepossibilityofreducedtradingactivitywhichwouldleadtoincreased,ratherthanreduced,
volatility,andthepossibilityofinternationalorphysical/cashsettledregulatoryarbitrage.
Moreover, the rule was passed by the seemingly reluctant vote of Commissioner Dunn, who expressed
concernsthatpositionlimitsareatbest,acureforadiseasethatdoesnotexistoraplaceboforonethat
does.Atworst,positionlimitsmayharmtheverymarketstheyareintendedtoprotect.Hisdecisiontovote
infavourasthedecisionisrequiredbythelawwaschallengedbythetwodissentingCommissioners.They
10 N OVEMBER 2011
39
P RICES
Rescuing Commodities from Speculators?
(continued)
arguethattheCommissionoverreacheditsmandatesincetheActclearlystatesthattheCommissionshould
adoptpositionlimitsonlyifitfindsthattheyarenecessarytodiminish,eliminateorpreventtheburden
oninterstatecommercecausedbyexcessivespeculation.TheyfurtherarguedthattheCommissionstilldid
nothavequalitativeorquantitativecriteriaforwhatismeantbyexcessivespeculation.
Thedebateoverthepositionlimitrulemaycontinuefurther.Marketparticipantsmightchallengethefinal
rulebasedonwhethertheCommissionoverreacheditsmandatebypreemptivelysettingapositionlimiton
commodityderivativescontracts,onthealmostnonexistingcostbenefitanalysisinthefinalrulemakingas
well as insufficient consideration of some of the comments letters which the Commission was obliged to
takeintoaccount.
Spot Crude Oil Prices

Spot crude prices were down on average in all major markets in October, with the increasingly
regionallyfocusedWTItheexception.Theweakermonthlyaverage,however,masksthestrongrebound
in spot prices throughout the month. The steady increase in spot prices since the exceptionally weak
earlyOctoberlevelshasbeenunderpinnedbysteppedupbuyingaheadofthewinterdemandperiodas
wellaslowcrudestockslevelsinallmajorconsumingregions.
DatedBrentpricesweredownbyaround$3.70/bbltoabout$109.45/bblinOctober.Pricesfelloffthe
cliff in early October on mounting concerns over the Euro zone debt issues but quickly recovered on
strong refiner demand. Middle East marker Dubai was down a smaller $2.35/bbl, to an average
$103.95/bblinOctober,thoughbyendmonthpriceshadreboundedtoahigherbandof$106107/bbl.
Bycontrast,WTIrosetoafourmonthhighinOctober,upbyanaverage$0.90/bbl,to$86.45/bblandby
earlyNovemberwastrading$10/bblplushigherataround$96/bbl.
$/bbl
130
$/bbl
Benchmark Crude Prices
WTI vs Dated Brent Differential
120
110
-5
-10
100
-15
90
-20
-25
80
-30
70
Oct 10
Jan 11
WTI Cushing
Apr 11
Jul 11
Dated Brent
Oct 11
Dubai
-35
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
Jul 11
Oct 11
WTIpostedanear18%gainmonthonmonthinOctober.AsaresultofWTIsrelativestrength,theprice
spread with Brent plummeted at endOctober. WTIs discount to Dated Brent narrowed by around
$4.60/bbl in October, to just under $23/bbl on average for the month, and flirted with lows around
$15/bblatendOctober.
TradingthepricedifferentialbetweenWTIandBrenthasbeenamajorplayforphysicaltraders,money
managersandinvestmentfundsforthepastyearastheBrentpremiumoverWTIsteadilyincreaseddue
tothelatterspriceweaknessonrisinginflowsofCanadiancrudeandtransportationbottlenecksatthe
landlocked Cushing, Oklahoma terminal. In addition, sharply reduced supplies of North Sea crudes
between April and September, to record 30year lows, have exceptionally elevated the premium for
Brentbutpriceshaveeasednowassuppliesslowlyreturntomorenormallevels.Anumberofplayers
were reportedly caught on the wrong side of the trade when WTI posted its sharp rebound. Many
40
10 N OVEMBER 2011
P RICES
marketparticipantsfeelthat2011highsandlowsforthespreadmaynowhavepassed,andthatitcould
settleintoahighteenstolowtwentiesrangeinthenearterm.
Storagelevelswerebrimmingoverattimesduringthepastyear,butmorerecently,crudeoilstocksheld
in Cushing tanks have steadily declined since April, from 41.9 mb to 30.1 mb at endSeptember.
EndOctoberlevelsat32.1mbwereslightlyhigheronthemonthbutstillnearthebottomoftherecent
range. Profitable rail and trucking economics to move crude to the US Gulf coast refining region have
providedanunexpectedreliefvalveforoversupplythatwasweighingonprices.Whiledomesticdemand
has been lacklustre, there has been exceptionally strong export demand for refined products from
neighbouringSouthAmerica.
Sweet-Sour Differentials
$/bbl
16
14 Data source: Platts analysis
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
DB - Urals Med
$/bbl
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Brent vs. Dubai
Oct 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Tapis - Dubai
Apr 11
Jul 11
Oct 11
Dated Brent - Dubai Mth1
Increasedexportsoflight,sweetLibyancrudehasaddeddownwardpressureonsweetsourspreadsin
Asia and the Mediterranean. The premium for light, sweet Malaysian Tapis over Dubai has narrowed
overthepasttwomonths,toaround$9.50/bblinearlyNovembercomparedwithabout$11.50/bblin
Octoberand$13.40/bblinSeptember.Meanwhile,theBrentDubaipricedifferential,anindicatorofthe
premium for light, sweet crudes over heavier grades, narrowed in October, to around $5.50/bbl from
$6.80/bblinSeptember.ByearlyNovemberthespreadwasaround$4/bbl.
AfterraisingpricepremiumsforArabLight,ExtraLightandSuperLight,torecordlevelsforNovemberto
Asiancustomers,SaudiAramcoloweredthemagainforDecemberliftings.Thepricecutsfortheregion
arereportedlyinlinewiththeseasonaldownturnindemandfornaphthaandotherlightendproducts.
Spot Crude Oil Prices and Differentials
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: http://www.iea.org/w/omrss/default.aspx
10 N OVEMBER 2011
41
P RICES
Spot Product Prices

Octobersawmiddledistillatecrackspreadsstrengthening,andEuropeandieselcrackspreadsincreased
toarobust$19.80/bbltoBrentinanunusuallytightmarket.Stocklevelsarearoundorbelowthefive
yearaverageinallmajormarketsasincreasingdemandandbelowaveragerefineryrunsinbothEurope
andAsiahaveresultedincounterseasonalstockdraws.Lightdistillatesmarketsontheotherhandwere
weak in October, with crack spreads falling further from last month. Asian naphtha crack spreads fell
almost$5/bbltoDubaimonthonmonth,andgasolinecrackspreadswereonly$4/bbltoBrentandata
discounttoLLSintheUSGulfatmonthend.FueloildiscountsnarrowedinOctoberandbothhighand
lowsulphurfueloilweretradingatpremiumtoDubaiatmonthend.
$/bbl
Gasoline
Cracks to Benchmark Crude s
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Naphtha
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes
$/bbl
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
NWE Unl 10ppm
Med Unl 10ppm
Jul 11
USGC
SP
Oct 11
Oct 10
Jan 11
NWE
Med CIF
Apr 11
Jul 11
SP
ME Gulf
Oct 11
GasolinecrackspreadsshoweddivergingtrendsinOctober.InEurope,crackspreadsfellslightlypartly
duetostrongercrudepricesandanarrowarbitragetotheUSEastCoast,butdemandfromWestAfrica
and Middle East was strong, and supplies were especially tight in the Mediterranean. At the US East
Coast,gasolinecrackspreadsalsofell,drivenbyanegativesentimentasdemandreadingscontinuetobe
pooraswellastheendOctobershifttolowerpricedwintergradegasoline.AstrengtheningofWTIalso
contributedtotheweakercrackspreads.AttheGulfCoast,crackspreadsimprovedslightly,butthiswas
mainlyrelatedtobenchmarkcrudepricesLLSandMarsfallingmorethangasoline.InAsia,crackspreads
fell throughout October with the gradual restart of the Bukom refinery in Singapore. The tight market
conditions of the first half of October saw gasoline crack spreads improve monthonmonth from
September.
NaphthamarketscontinuedtoperformpoorlyinOctober,withAsianpricesata$7.80/bbldiscountto
Dubai in October. Low demand from the petrochemical sector (Korean strength aside), and the
competitiveness of propane feedstock contributed in pressuring naphtha markets together with the
weaknessingasolinemarkets.
$/bbl
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Diesel Fuel
42
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
NWE ULSD 10ppm
Med ULSD 10ppm
$/bbl
Jul 11
Oct 11
NYH No. 2
NYH ULSD
Gasoil/Heating Oil
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
NWE Gasoil 0.1%
Med Gasoil 0.1%
Jul 11
Oct 11
NYH No. 2
SP Gasoil 0.5%
10 N OVEMBER 2011
P RICES
Middle distillate crack spreads improved in October in all regions. In Europe crack spreads were
supported by higher demand and stock draws, partly due to still low exports from Russia. US markets
weresupportedbybothincreasingdomesticdemandaswellasstrongexportdemandtoLatinAmerica
andEurope.Asianmarketsweretightduetolowerregionalproductionandhighexportdemand.
Fuel oil discounts remained narrow in October. Asian markets were tight on strong demand especially
fromJapanandlowstocklevels,whichalsosupportedEuropeanmarkets.
Spot Product Prices
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: http://www.iea.org/w/omrss/default.aspx
Refining Margins
Refining margins largely improved in October but volatility throughout the month was high. Margins
weregenerallysupportedbyastrongincreaseinmiddledistillatecrackspreads,withtheexceptionof
highpricedMayacrude,whichledtodepressedcokingmarginsforthegradeintheUSGulf.Movinginto
November,marginscontinuedtoseesawinlinewithvolatilecrudemarkets,decliningtowardstheendof
thefirstweekasproductpricesfailedtokeeptrackwithincreasingcrudeprices.
European refining margins showed a slight improvement in October, especially for simple refineries
although absolute levels continue to be very weak. The strength seen for middle distillates and
narrowingdiscountsforfueloilsupportedthemargins.
OntheUSGulfCoast,marginscontinuetobeweak,althoughbothMarscokingandLLScrackingmargins
moved into positive territory again after showing calculated losses last month. The strength in the
middledistillatessegmentgavesupport,butLLSmarginsweakenedinthesecondhalfofthemonthas
LLSwasrelativelystronger.Aftershowingstrengthoverthesummer,Mayacokingmarginsfellby$3/bbl
monthonmonthinOctoberonstrongMayaprices.
10 N OVEMBER 2011
43
P RICES
$/bbl
16
$/bbl
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
USGC Margins
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
Apr May
Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Maya Coking
Mars Coking
Brent Cracking
NWE Refining Margins
Apr May
Nov
LLS Cracking
Mars Cracking
Jun
Jul
Aug
Brent Cracking
Urals Cracking
Sep Oct
Nov
Brent H'skimming
Urals H'skimming
TightnessinAsianproductmarketsduetoongoingcapacityoutagesattheBukomrefineryinSingapore
gave support to Singapore Dubai margins. Tapis margins also improved in October as its value eased
alongsidethatforlightsweetgradesgenerally.Meanwhile,ChinesemarginsimprovedinOctobermainly
duetostrongermiddledistillatecrackspreadsandnarrowingfueloilcrackspreads.
Selected Refining Margins in Major Refining Centres

($/bbl)
Monthly Average
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
2.53
2.93
-0.38
1.66
1.53
2.49
Change
Oct 11-Sep 11
Average for week ending:

07 Oct
14 Oct
21 Oct
28 Oct
04 Nov
Brent (Hydroskimming)
-0.98
-3.81
-1.29
Urals (Hydroskimming)
-3.79
-4.76
-2.99
Mediterranean
Es Sider (Cracking)
Urals (Cracking)
Es Sider (Hydroskimming)
Urals (Hydroskimming)
2.56
2.06
-3.13
-5.63
0.26
0.12
-5.21
-6.77
0.40
0.94
-4.51
-5.00
0.15
0.83
0.70
1.77
0.88
1.60
-3.89
-4.13
-1.04
-0.18
-6.16
-6.46
0.80
1.14
-4.10
-4.99
0.92
1.23
-4.06
-4.58
-0.14
0.00
-4.25
-5.09
US Gulf Coast
Brent (Cracking)
LLS (Cracking)
Mars (Cracking)
Mars (Coking)
Maya (Coking)
-0.96
6.01
0.51
4.24
9.47
-6.68
-0.73
-4.40
-1.73
4.88
-3.81
0.06
-1.56
0.42
1.88
2.87
0.79
2.85
2.15
-3.01
-2.36
1.66
-0.90
1.25
3.96
-4.07
-0.56
-2.85
-0.68
3.14
-4.55
-0.68
-1.07
0.49
1.28
-4.55
-0.38
-1.63
0.41
-0.36
-3.90
1.20
-0.55
1.28
-2.51
US West Coast
ANS (Cracking)
Kern (Cracking)
Oman (Cracking)
Kern (Coking)
1.46
10.77
0.29
11.32
-5.26
-3.05
-0.98
2.03
-0.42
-2.14
2.41
4.02
4.83
0.91
3.39
1.99
0.19
-1.02
3.67
4.58
2.47
0.52
5.57
6.68
-1.10
-2.18
-0.18
4.34
-3.26
-5.40
-0.03
0.84
1.24
-3.37
5.85
2.64
Singapore
Dubai (Hydroskimming)
Tapis (Hydroskimming)
Dubai (Hydrocracking)
Tapis (Hydrocracking)
0.39
-6.84
2.93
-6.29
-1.03
-10.60
1.57
-9.79
0.41
-8.19
2.32
-8.00
1.44
2.41
0.75
1.79
1.95
-7.15
4.27
-6.62
0.34
-9.34
2.38
-9.06
-0.54
-8.51
1.30
-8.37
-0.19
-8.20
1.33
-8.31
0.88
-6.27
2.00
-6.79
China
Cabinda (Hydroskimming)
Daqing (Hydroskimming)
Dubai (Hydroskimming)
Daqing (Hydrocracking)
Dubai (Hydrocracking)
-1.77
-2.74
0.32
-0.18
3.11
-3.57
-1.53
-1.11
1.56
1.71
-2.62
0.70
0.34
2.86
2.50
0.95
2.23
1.45
1.30
0.79
-1.08
-0.03
1.89
2.77
4.45
-4.61
0.64
0.30
3.35
2.58
-3.28
0.80
-0.61
2.92
1.48
-2.09
1.28
-0.30
2.53
1.48
-0.53
0.91
0.83
1.08
2.20
NW Europe
Brent (Cracking)
Urals (Cracking)
1.91
0.83
1.74
3.60
0.74
1.42
1.47
2.12
1.87
2.66
2.14
2.22
2.52
-1.18
-2.47
-1.10
-0.85
-0.23
1.78
-1.80
-4.58
-3.21
-2.67
-2.72
For the purposes of this report, refining margins are calculated for various complexity configurations, each optimised for processing the specific crude in a specific refining centre on a 'fullcost' basis. Consequently, reported margins should be taken as an indication, or proxy, of changes in profitability for a given refining centre. No attempt is made to model or otherwise
comment upon the relative economics of specific refineries running individual crude slates and producing custom product sales, nor are these calculations intended to infer the marginal
values of crudes for pricing purposes.
*The China refinery margin calculation represents a model based on spot product import/export parity, and does not reflect internal pricing regulations.
Sources: EA, Purvin & Gertz Inc.
44
10 N OVEMBER 2011
P RICES
End-User Product Prices in October

AverageIEA enduser pricesinUSdollars(extax)fellbyalean 0.94%inOctober.Onthisbasis,prices
retreated across all surveyed products, bar diesel, which reported a marginal 0.2% increase. Gasoline
decreased by a significant 2.9% driven by weak prices in
End-User Product Prices
the US (5.1%), Canada (3.9%) and Spain (3.8%). Diesel
Monthly Changes in USD, ex-tax
4%
dropped in Japan and the US by 2.9% and 1.2%,
2%
respectively; but showed a sizeable increase in Germany
0%
(+3.5%). Heating oil showed mixed movements across
surveyed countries but on average decreased by a minor -2%
0.3%.LSFO droppedbya moresizeable0.8% drivenbya -4%
-2.9%
-0.3%
0.2%
fallof1.4%inFrance.
-0.8%
-6%
Gasoline
Diesel
Heat.Oil
LSFO
Onayearonyearbasis,fuelpricescontinuetorecedeon
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
Japan
Canada
the back of weaker demand and ambivalent consumer
United States
United Kingdom
Average
confidence. On a countrybycountry basis, average end
user prices range between 23% and 33% higher than a year ago. UK prices posted the heftiest annual
increasedrivenbyheatingoilanddiesel.Onafuelbyfuelbasis,gasolineanddieselare25%and27%
higherthanyearagolevels,respectively.
Freight
Crude tanker freight rates experienced a recovery of sorts during October, with all benchmark rates
firmingforthefirsttimesinceearlysummer.Theupwardmomentumresultedfromseveredelaysinthe
Bosphorus Straits where the implementation of new regulations on hazardous cargoes contrived to
increase journey times by up to 10 days. In the West African market, the delays combined with high
demand to tighten Suezmax tonnage, forcing the benchmark West Africa US Atlantic Coast rate to a
peakof$18.50/mton17October.
IntheMiddleEast,steadydemandprovidedsomerespiteforownersasratesonthebenchmarkMiddle
EastGulfJapanvoyagerecoveredto$12.50/mtbyendOctober.EventheNorthSeaAframaxmarket
got a piggyback from the delays affecting their Mediterranean counterparts as tightening tonnage
pushedtheNorthSeaNorthwestEuroperateover$7.70/mtbyendmonth.However,thefirmingonall
trades proved fleeting as once again vessels repositioned themselves to take advantage of firming
markets thereby forcing rates downwards. This was most pronounced in the West African Suezmax
market, which plummeted from midmonth as demand waned and tonnage lists lengthened after
tankersbasedEastofSuezofferedupforforwardNigerianandAngolancargoes.
US$/m t
28
Daily Crude Tanker Rates
US$/m t
35
24
30
20
25
16
20
12
15
10
Daily Product Tanker Rates
4
0
Jan 10
Data so urce: P latts analysis
Jul 10
Jan 11
8 0 k t N S e a - N W E ur
V LC C M E G ulf - J a p
Jul 11
13 0 k t W A f r- US A C
0
Jan 10
Data so urce: P latts analysis
Jul 10
Jan 11
3 0 K C a rib - US A C
75K M EG-Jap
Jul 11
2 5 K UKC - US A C
3 0 K S E A s ia - J a p
Inproducttankermarkets,thepicturewasmixed.ThevolatilityoftheUKUSAtlanticCoasttradewas
onceagainunderlinedasabust,boomandthenbustagainscenarioplayedout.Afteralacklustreearly
10 N OVEMBER 2011
45
P RICES
month,fundamentalsfirmedinmidOctoberwiththerateresurgingtoover$24/mt,butbythetimeof
writing,theratehadrecededsharplyonthebackofalengthytonnagelist.Intheeast,theMiddleEast
Gulf Japan route, which had remained healthy all
summer, fell below $24/mt by earlyNovember after m b
Global crude floating storage
(short-term
and semi-permanent)
declining demand and a plethora of available vessels
175
So urce: EA Gibso n, SSY and
softenedfundamentals.
IEA estimates
155
135
Oil in shortterm floating storage increased by 2.6 mb at
endOctober. However, this masked the fact that crude 115
95
climbed sharply by 12.8 mb to 46 mb whilst all product
75
floatingstorage(10.2mb)cameashore.Theriseincrude
55
inventories was driven by a 12.9 mb build in Iranian
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
storage either in the Middle East Gulf or being shuttled
R a nge 2 0 0 6 - 10
2 0 10
unsoldtotheSUMEDpipelineatAinSukhna.Additionally,
2 0 11
A v e ra ge 2 0 0 6 - 10
storageintheUSGulfroseby2.1mbto6.5mbwhilstAsia
Pacific storage drew by 1.2 mb. The surprise fall in products was led by West Africa which drew by
6.6mb with inventories in Asia Pacific and the Mediterranean declining by 3.1 mb and 0.5 mb,
respectively.Consistentwiththeoffloadingofproducts,thestoragefleetisnowcomposedof20VLCCs
and2Suezmaxesafter11smallervesselswerereleased.
46
10 N OVEMBER 2011
R EFINING
REFINING
Summary
GlobalrefinerycrudethroughputsfellsharplyinSeptember,asplannedandunplannedshutdowns
amplified the normal seasonal downturn. Asian refinery runs were lower than expected following
unscheduledandprolongedoutagesinTaiwanandSingapore,andextensivemaintenanceanddelays
in the commissioning of new capacity in India. Russian runs also fell more than expected despite
recent tax changes, and earlier talk of postponed turnarounds, while higher OECD rates provided a
partialoffset.Inall,3Q11globalcruderunshavebeenloweredby30kb/d,to75.5mb/d.
4Q11 refinery crude run estimates have been lowered by 260 kb/d since last months report, to
average 75.1 mb/d, following significant refinery outages and apparent delays in starting up new
capacityinAsia.WhilemegarefineriesinbothSingaporeandTaiwanhaverestartedafterextended
unplannedshutdowns,reducedrunsarelikelytopersistthroughtotheendoftheyear.Newcapacity
inIndiaisnowonlyexpectedtobefullyoperationalin2Q12.
OECD crude runs fell by 0.9 mb/d in September to 36.8 mb/d, on the back of lower runs in all
regions. European and North American runs were both down 390 kb/d from a month earlier, while
the Pacific contracted by less than 100 kb/d. The seasonal decline was nevertheless smaller than
expected,resultinginanupwardrevisionto3Q11OECDestimatesof100kb/dintotal,to37.2mb/d.
4Q11estimatesareunchangedsincelastmonthsreport,averaging36.4mb/d,onparwith4Q10.
OECDrefineryyieldswererelativelyunchangedinAugust,showingonlyasmalldecreaseinyieldsfor
naphtha and other products and a minor increase in fuel oil and distillate yields compared to the
previous month. Unchanged OECD gasoline yields masked a further decline in Europe and higher
Pacificyields.OECDgrossoutputincreasedfurtherinAugustby485kb/dfromJuly,to44.7mb/d.
Global Refining
mb/d
77
mb/d
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Crude Throughput
76
75
74
73
72
71
Jan
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Jul
Firm Global Refinery Shutdowns
Dec-10
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
Mar-11
Jun-11
OECD NAM
OECD Pacific
Est. 'yet-to-be reported'
Sep-11
Dec-11
OECD Europe
ROW
World Y-1
Global Refinery Throughput

Global refinery crude runs have been revised down by 30 kb/d for 3Q11 as weakerthan expected
nonOECD runs more than offset higher runs in all OECD regions. September throughputs were
particularly hardhit in Other Asia (260 kb/d lower than expected) following a series of planned and
unscheduledoutagesanddelaystothecommissioningofnewcapacityinIndia.TheshutdownofEssars
Vadinar refinery for 45days led to a 200 kb/d monthly decline in Indian runs, while apparent delays
continued to impede the ramping up of operations at the recently commissioned Bina (120 kb/d) and
Bathinda(180kb/d)refineries.TheseplantsandtheexpandedVadinarrefineryarenowonlyexpectedto
be fully operational sometime in 2Q12. Significant refinery outages in Taiwan and Singapore also
restrictedregionalproductsupplies.Elsewhere,Russianrefineryrunsfellmoresharplythanforecastin
10N OVEMBER 2011
47
R EFINING
September,despitetalkofpostponingmaintenanceasaresultofnewexporttaxchangestakingeffect
on 1 October (See Supply Section). Russian crude processing fell by almost 400 kb/d from August,
100kb/daboveforecast.HigherthanexpectedrunsinallOECDregionsinSeptemberprovidedapartial
offsethowever.WhiletotalOECDrunsfell0.9mb/dinSeptember,thedropwas290kb/dlowerinthan
lastmonthsreport,spreadacrossthethreeregions.
Global Refinery Crude Throughput1

2Q2011
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
3Q2011
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
4Q2011
Jan 12
Feb 12
North America
17.5
18.4
18.5
18.1
18.3
17.5
17.8
17.5
17.6
17.2
17.0
Europe
11.9
12.4
12.6
12.2
12.4
12.1
12.1
12.4
12.2
12.4
12.3
Pacific
6.2
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.1
6.7
7.0
6.6
7.0
7.0
35.7
37.2
37.6
36.8
37.2
35.7
36.6
36.8
36.4
36.6
36.3
FSU
6.5
6.7
6.7
6.2
6.5
6.1
6.5
6.7
6.4
6.6
6.5
Non-OECD Europe
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
China
8.9
8.8
8.7
8.8
8.8
9.1
9.3
9.4
9.3
9.3
9.2
Other Asia
8.9
9.2
8.7
8.7
8.8
8.7
9.0
9.1
8.9
9.2
9.2
Latin America
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.1
5.1
Middle East
5.8
6.2
6.3
6.2
6.3
6.2
6.2
6.0
6.1
5.9
5.9
Africa
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.4
Total Non-OECD
38.1
38.9
38.2
37.7
38.3
37.9
39.1
39.1
38.7
39.0
38.9
Total
73.8
76.1
75.8
74.5
75.5
73.6
75.6
76.0
75.1
75.6
75.2
Total OECD
1 Preliminary and estimated runs based on capacity, know n outages, economic run cuts and global demand forecast
4Q11globalestimateshavebeenrevisedlowerby260kb/dfromlastmonthsreport,inlargepartdue
tothechangesoutlinedabove.WhilecapacityinbothTaiwanandSingaporehadbeenrestoredbyend
October,reducedrunsarelikelytopersistthroughtotheendoftheyear.Shellannounceditplansto
fully restore production at the 500 kb/d Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore during November and
December.InTaiwansafetychecksandstagedshutdownswillpersistatthe 540kb/dMailiaorefinery
until August 2012, with the first such shutdown scheduled for December. We now see 4Q11 runs
averaging75.1mb/d,down420kb/dfromthepreviousquarter,but450kb/dhigheryearonyear.
mb/d
Global Throughputs vs. Demand
Global Crude Runs
mb/d
Quarterly Change
Annual growth
3.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
1Q08
1Q09
Crude Runs
1Q10
1Q
1Q11
Oil Product Demand
2004
2008
2Q
2005
2009
3Q
2006
2010
4Q
2007
2011
OECD Refinery Throughput

OECDcruderunsfellbycloseto900kb/dinSeptember,asallregionsrecordeddeclines.BothEuropean
andNorthAmericanrunsweredownby390kb/dfromamonthearlier,whilethePacificcontractedby
lessthan100kb/d.OnlyNorthAmericasustainedrunsaboveayearearlier(+370kb/d),withtotalOECD
runs trailing some 240 kb/d below last years average. However, the seasonal decline was somewhat
48
10N OVEMBER 2011
R EFINING
weakerthanexpected,leadingtoa290kb/dupwardrevisionintotal.Inparticular,SouthKoreanruns
rebounded from Augusts dip, back to 2.5 mb/d, supported by robust domestic demand and strong
exports. Total OECD 3Q11 runs are now pegged at 37.2 mb/d, 315 kb/d below 3Q10. OECD runs are
expectedtohittheirseasonallowinOctober,asscheduledshutdownspeak,beforereboundingtowards
yearend.4Q11OECDestimatesareunchangedsincelastmonthsreport,averaging36.4mb/d.
mb/d
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
Jan
OECD Total
mb/d
Crude Throughput
2.0
OECD Demand vs. Crude Runs

Annual Change
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
2012 est.
-3.0
1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11

Crude Runs
Oil Product Demand
Refinery Crude Throughput and Utilisation in OECD Countries

Change from
Aug 11
Sep 11
Aug 11
Sep 10
15.62
15.59
15.31
-0.29
0.57
1.54
1.61
1.65
1.68
0.03
-0.11
91.3%
90.9%
1.14
1.16
1.24
1.10
-0.13
-0.09
71.6%
77.7%
17.46
18.05
18.39
18.48
18.08
-0.39
0.37
86.4%
84.3%
1.18
1.33
1.35
1.34
1.37
1.33
-0.04
-0.17
81.1%
82.7%
1.85
1.84
1.78
2.02
2.03
1.92
-0.11
-0.13
80.3%
85.7%
1.52
1.56
1.62
1.55
1.66
1.57
-0.09
-0.16
72.1%
75.9%
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
14.30
14.78
15.37
Canada
1.57
1.54
Mexico
1.26
1.15
17.14
France
Germany
Italy
US2
OECD North Am erica
Utilisation rate1
Jul 11
Sep 11
Sep 10
87.1%
84.2%
Netherlands
0.80
1.00
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.11
0.07
0.11
85.9%
77.4%
Spain
1.09
1.01
1.06
1.01
1.07
1.09
0.02
-0.02
77.3%
78.9%
United Kingdom
1.51
1.50
1.45
1.50
1.51
1.47
-0.04
0.04
81.3%
79.2%
Other OECD Europe
3.65
3.72
3.92
3.93
3.95
3.75
-0.20
-0.10
76.0%
78.6%
11.61
11.95
12.23
12.39
12.63
12.24
-0.39
-0.44
78.2%
79.8%
Japan
3.10
2.78
2.93
3.17
3.37
3.21
-0.16
-0.14
69.8%
70.4%
South Korea
2.58
2.51
2.52
2.52
2.43
2.50
0.07
-0.03
91.3%
92.4%
Other OECD Pacific
0.78
0.75
0.77
0.70
0.74
0.75
0.01
0.00
81.9%
81.9%
6.46
6.04
6.21
6.38
6.54
6.45
-0.09
-0.17
78.3%
78.9%
35.20
35.45
36.49
37.16
37.65
36.78
-0.87
-0.24
82.0%
81.7%
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
OECD Total
1 Expressed as a percentage, based o n crude thro ughput and current o perable refining capacity
2 US50
RefinerycrudethroughputsinNorthAmericafellby390kb/dinSeptemberfollowinglowerrunsinboth
the US and Mexico. However, driven by relatively healthy operations in the US, regional throughputs
stoodsome370kb/dabovethesamemonthlastyear.Theabsenceofanyhurricaneshutdownsonthe
Gulf Coast and persistently high product exports supported runs. US product exports hit yet another
recordhigh,above3.0mb/d,inAugust,thelatestmonthforwhichconsolidateddataareavailable.Net
productexportstotalled915kb/d,upfrom490kb/dinJulyand440kb/dlastyear,ledbyrecordhigh
shipments of distillates. Distillate exports averaged 895 kb/d while finished gasoline exports were at a
record535kb/d.Importsofgasolineblendingcomponents,at590kb/d,providedsomeoffset.
10N OVEMBER 2011
49
R EFINING
mb/d
OECD North America
m b/d
17
Crude Throughput
19
18
16
17
15
16
14
US Weekly Refinery Throughput
Source: EIA
15
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 06-10
2010
2011
Sep
Nov
Jan
13
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
2012 est.
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep
Nov
5-yr Average
2011
Mexicoremainsthelargestimporterofrefinedproducts,andgasolineinparticular,fromtheUS.Total
product exports to Mexico averaged close to 0.5 mb/d in August. Imports of petroleum products
probablyremainedelevatedinSeptemberandOctober,asMexicanrefineryoperationswerecurtailed
by planned and unplanned outages at Salamanca, Cadereyta, Minatitlan and Ciudad Madero during
SeptemberandOctober,exacerbatingstructuralproductsupplyshortages.
m b/d
US PADD 3 Refinery Throughputs
8.5
m b/d
3.7
8.0
3.5
7.5
3.3
7.0
3.1
6.5
US PADD 2 Refinery Throughputs
2.9
Source: EIA
6.0
Jan
Mar
Source: EIA
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep
Nov
5-yr Average
2011
2.7
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2006-2010
2010
Sep
Nov
5-yr Average
2011
USrunsfellseasonallyinOctober,by570kb/d,butwereslightlystrongerthanexpected,promptinga
140kb/dupwardadjustmentfor4Q11regionalruns.Refinerymarginsgenerallyimprovedonthe Gulf
Coast,andtheregionwassparedanystormshutins.USrefineryrunsweremorethan700kb/dhigher
than a year earlier, with annual gains recorded for PADDs 1, 2 and 3 (unadjusted weekly data show
590kb/d annual increase). On the West Coast runs fell sharply at endOctober due to maintenance at
BPs Carson refinery in California, Tesoros Wilmington plant and Chevrons Richmond refinery
amongstothers.
OECD European runs fell by 390 kb/d in September, in line with expectations. The monthly decline
stemmedfromanumberofcountriesasthepeaksummerdemandseasoncametoanendandrefiners
startedautumnturnarounds.Notabledeclinescamefrom
OECD Europe
mb/d
Crude Throughput
the Czech Republic, Sweden, Germany and Italy due to
14.4
maintenance and reduced runs due to poor economics
13.9
(notablyEnisVenicerefinery).InSpain,Repsolannounced
13.4
mid October that the upgrades and expansions at the
12.9
Cartagena refinery would be operational by midOctober
12.4
and at Bilbao by 15 November. Cartagenas capacity has
11.9
been doubled to around 220kb/d, from 110kb/d
11.4
previously, and new coking, hydrocracking and
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan
desulphurisation units have been added. At the Bilbao
Range 06-10
Average 06-10
2010
2011 est.
refinery,a40kb/dcokingunithasbeenadded.
2011
50
2012 est.
10N OVEMBER 2011
R EFINING
OECD Pacific crude runs averaged 6.5 mb/d in September, 90 kb/d lower than in August, but almost
200kb/d higher than our previous forecast. The largest revision came to South Korean throughputs,
which rebounded from Augusts dip, to 2.5mb/d, and provided some offset to seasonally declining
Japanese throughputs. Japanese crude runs fell more than expected in October, to only 2.9 mb/d,
260kb/d less than both September and October 2010. Runs rebounded by the last week of October,
however,asrefinerswereincreasingutilisationratestoreplenishinventoriesandtomeetwinterheating
demand.Bothgasoilandkerosenestockswerewellbelowtheir5yearaveragelevelsaheadofthepeak
heatingseason.
OECD Pacific
mb/d
m b/d
5.0
Crude Throughput
8.0
Japan Weekly Refinery Throughput
4.5
7.5
4.0
7.0
6.5
3.5
6.0
3.0
5.5
2.5
Jan
Source: PAJ, IEA est imates
Jan
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 (est.)
2012 est.
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
Oct
5-yr Average
2010
2011
Non-OECD Refinery Throughput

NonOECDrefinerycruderunshavebeenreviseddownby135kb/dfor3Q11followingshortfallsina
number of countries, due to both planned and unplanned shutdowns. Indian runs in particular were
weakerthanexpectedinSeptember,averaging3.8mb/d,followingheavymaintenanceatseveralplants,
including Essars Vadinar refinery and delays in ramping up runs at HPCLs Bathinda and BPCLs Bina
plants. Talk of delaying scheduled maintenance in Russia, due to recent export tax changes, does not
seemtohavematerialisedandRussianrunsfellbycloseto400kb/dinSeptember,some100kb/dmore
than forecast. Russian runs were also likely constrained due to turnarounds in October, before
rebounding in November. September operations were also lowered by slightly weakerthanexpected
runsinBrazilandSouthAfrica,thelatterexperiencingsomefuelshortagesasfouroutofthecountrys
sixrefinerieswereshut.Inall,totalnonOECDrunsarenowestimatedat38.3mb/dfor3Q11,380kb/d
above3Q10.
Thedelaysandshutdownsmentionedaboveinlargepartextendintotheremainderoftheyear.4Q11
estimates have as a result been lowered by a more significant 275 kb/d, to 38.7 mb/d. New Indian
capacityisnowonlyexpectedtobefullyoperationalby2Q12,cuttingintopreviouslyforecastedgrowth.
While megarefineries in both Singapore and Taiwan have restarted after being shut following fires,
reducedrunsarelikelytopersistthroughtotheendoftheyear.ThelatestinformationregardingShells
500 kb/d Singapore refinery is that all crude units have restarted, but full rates will likely only be
regainedbyendyear.AlsoinTaiwan,Formosas540kb/dMailiaorefinerywilllikelyrunatreducedrates
throughAugust2012,astheplantundertakessafetychecksandstagesshutdowns.Onesuchshutdown
has been announced for December. Despite the outages and delays, nonOECD runs are expected to
increaseby0.4mb/din4Q11onbothaquarterlyandanannualbasis.
10N OVEMBER 2011
51
R EFINING
China
Non-OECD Total
mb/d
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
Jan
mb/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
Jul
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
Crude Throughput
Jan
Mar May
2008
2010
2011 est.
Jul
Sep
Nov Jan
2009
2011
2012 est.
Chinese refinery crude throughputs averaged 8.8 mb/d in September, some 120kb/d higher than in
Augustand290kb/daboveayearearlier,butinlinewithourpreviousforecast.Runsareexpectedto
rise from October, as maintenance is completed at most plants and refiners restock depleted
inventories.SinopecannounceditwasplanningtorunitsrefineriesatclosetofullcapacityinNovember
to ensure adequate supplies of product to meet domestic demand. PetroChinas refineries have
reportedly been running at full capacity since October, (+5.7% yoy), CNPC said on 28 October.
TurnaroundsatCNOOCs240kb/dHuizhourefineryfor40daysfromOctoberwillprovidesomeoffset.A
decreaseinexrefinerypricesofgasolineanddiesel,effectivefrom9October,lowereddomesticrefining
margins, however, and could discourage increases in runs and product imports, leading to continued
stockdrawsorshortages.
mb/d
9.5
mb/d
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
Other Asia
Crude Throughput
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
Jan
India
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2009
2011 est.
2012 est.
Indianrefinerycruderunsfellto3.8mb/dinSeptember,down200kb/dfromAugustand200kb/dless
that expected. The drop in runs follows maintenance shutdowns of Essars Vadinar refinery from
midSeptember as capacity was boosted to 375 kb/d. The plant resumed operations on 24 October,
althoughoperationsatthe75kb/dexpandedunitwillnotbeginuntilend1Q12.Indianstatecompany
IOCreportedlyreducedrunsatitsMathuraplantduetoweakerdemandforindustrialfuelsduringthe
monsoon and at its Koyali plant due to high naphtha inventories. Total runs were nevertheless 4.4%
higher than a year earlier. It is uncertain whether the new 180 kb/d Bathinda refinery is currently
operating. The latest news, around 1 November is that HPCL plans to commission the plant by
31March2012, though the crude and vacuum distillation units have already been commissioned and
crudeprocessingtrialsstartedinAugust.
Elsewhere in the region, refinery throughputs in Singapore and Taiwan were hampered by shutdowns
followingfires.Taiwansrefineryrunsdroppedto40%utilisationinAugust,or504kb/d,butinlinewith
ourestimates.Formosawasforcedtoshutthe540kb/dMailiaorefineryattheendofJulyfollowinga
fire.TheplantsthreeCDUshadallrestartedbymidSeptember,butrunswilllikelybereduceduntilthe
end of August 2012 as the company undertakes safety checks and staged shutdowns. The first such
shutdownhasbeenannouncedforDecember,whena180kb/dCDUwillbetakenofflinefor40days.
52
10N OVEMBER 2011
R EFINING
InSingapore,ShellrestartedthefinalcrudeunitatitsrefineryattheendofOctober,onemonthafter
theentire500kb/dplanthadtobeshutfollowingafire.Thecompanysaidtheplantwouldberunningat
52%utilisationfollowingtherestart,or259kb/d,beforereturningtonormaloperationbyDecember.
Russianrefineryrunsfellbyalmost400kb/dinSeptember,duetoextensivemaintenanceoutages.The
fall was almost 100 kb/d more than expected in last months report. Talks of postponing scheduled
shutdowns untilafterthe1Octoberintroductionofthe6066export tax changesseemtohavehada
limitedimpactonactualruns.Itwasarguedthatsinceproductexportdutieswouldriseaftertheduty
change while crude export duties would decrease as a result, refiners would maximise product output
and exports ahead of the change, and crude exports thereafter. In reality, changes to maintenance
schedulesarenotsoeasytoimplement,asalotofplanningandstaffareinvolved.Thatsaid,October
maintenanceisexpectedtoincreasefurther,andrunsarelikelytoreboundinNovemberfollowingthe
completionofmostmaintenance.Providingapartialoffset,Kazakhstanirefineryrunsaveraged324kb/d
in September, the second highest since our monthly time series started in January 2004, ahead of
plannedmaintenance.KazakhstanirunsareforecasttodipinOctoberandNovemberastheShymkent
refineryclosefora30dayturnaroundfrom20October.
Russia
mb/d
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
Jan
Mar
May
2008
2010
2011
Jul
Sep
FSU
mb/d
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.4
Crude Throughput
Nov
Jan
2009
2011 est.
2012 est.
Jan
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
Jul
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
InLatinAmerica,Brazilsrefineryrunscameinat1.8mb/dforSeptember,40kb/dlowerthanexpected.
Argentineanthroughputsfellby50kb/dinAugust,to470kb/d.Hovensaisplanningmaintenancework
on its 350 kb/d refinery in the US Virgin Islands in the fourth quarter (here accounted for in Latin
America). The company permanently reduced crude capacity by 150kb/d in 1Q11 due to poor
economics. In Trinidad and Tobago, staterun oil company Petrotrin shut its 160 kb/d PointeaPierre
refineryinOctoberduetoindustrialactionoversalaries.
Latin America
mb/d
5.8
Crude Throughput
5.6
2.5
5.4
2.4
5.2
2.3
5.0
2.2
4.8
2.1
4.6
2.0
Jan
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Jul
Africa
mb/d
2.6
Jan
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.
In Africa, according to statements from the National Oil Company, initial Libyan crude production is
being supplied to domestic refineries as a priority over exports. Currently, both the smaller Sarir
10N OVEMBER 2011
53
R EFINING
(10kb/d)andTobruk(20kb/d)refineriesarereportedlyoperatingwhilethelargerZawiya(120kb/d)is
runningatreducedrates.The220kb/dRasLanufplantisexpectedtoresumerunsinlateNovemberor
earlyDecember,beforerampinguprunsoverthecomingmonths.Weassumethatrefineryproduction
couldberestoredtoprewarlevelsbyFebruary.FouroutofSouthAfricassixrefinerieswereshutfor
planned and unplanned repairs during September and October causing LPG and bitumen shortages.
CapacityisexpectedtobebackonlinebytheendofNovember,asrepairworkiscompleted.InChad,
CNPC restarted its newly commissioned refinery after 40 days shutdown from 25 September as the
government raised the price of locally produced and refined fuel products. In October, CNPCs new
20kb/drefineryinNigerreportedlystartedoperationsastheAgedamoilpipelinecameonstream.
OECD Refinery Yields

OECDrefineryyieldsdidnotchangemuchinAugust.Therewasasmalldecreaseinyieldsfornaphtha
andotherproducts,andaminorincreaseinfueloilanddistillatesyieldscomparedtolastmonth.OECD
gasolineyieldsasawholewereunchangedversusJulyat34.6%,althoughthismasksafurtherdecrease
inOECDEuropeanyieldsby0.4percentagepoints(pp)andanincreaseinPacificyieldsby0.7pp.OECD
gasoil/dieselyieldsincreased0.1pp,to30.8%,asariseby0.6ppinEuropeanyieldswasoffsetbylower
yieldsinNorthAmericaandthePacific.OECDgrossoutputincreasedfurtherinAugustto44.7mb/d,a
riseof485kb/dfromJuly,withoutputforthemonthhigherthanlastyearinbothNorthAmericaand
Europe.
37%
OECD - Gasoline
OECD - Gasoil / Diesel
Refinery Yield - Five-year Range

32%
36%
31%
35%
30%
34%
29%
33%
32%
28%
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
Oct
Jan
5-yr Average
2011
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2006-10
2010
Oct
Jan
5-yr Average
2011
RefineriesinOECDEuropeincreasedtheproductionofgasoil/dieselattheexpenseofgasolineinAugust
due to continued low gasoline demand and increasing product crack spreads for middle distillates. In
OECDNorthAmerica,yieldswerepracticallyunchangedversuslastmonth.Therewasaslightincreasein
fuel oil yields, leaving them in line with last years level of 4.7%. Fuel oil yields have been trending
around0.5ppbelowlastyearslevelearlierthisyear.InOECDPacific,gasolineyieldsincreased0.7ppon
strongergasolinecrackspreadsasAsianmarketsweretightduetorefinerymaintenanceandunplanned
shutdowns.Bothgasoil/dieselandfueloilyieldsdecreasedascrackspreadsforbothproductcategories
narrowedinAugust.
OECD Europe - Gasoline
OECD Pacific - Gasoline
Refinery Yield - Five-year range
25%
24%
23%
22%
21%
20%
19%
18%
24%
23%
22%
21%
20%
Jan
Apr
Range 2006-10
2010
54
Jul
Oct
Jan
Jan
5-yr Average
2011
Apr
Range 2006-10
2010
Jul
Oct
Jan
5-yr Average
2011
10N OVEMBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
2008 2009
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America
Europe
Pacific
24.2 23.3
15.4 14.7
8.1
7.7
23.4 23.7 24.1 23.9 23.8

14.3 14.3 14.9 14.8 14.6
8.2
7.3 7.6
8.1
7.8
23.8 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.5

14.2 14.1 14.7 14.6 14.4
8.3 7.1 7.7
8.3 7.9
23.5 23.1 23.5 23.5 23.4

14.0 13.9 14.6 14.5 14.3
8.6 7.4
7.5 8.1
7.9
Total OECD
47.6 45.6
45.9 45.3 46.6 46.7 46.2
46.3 44.5 45.9 46.4 45.8
46.1 44.4 45.6 46.0 45.5
4.2
4.2
0.8
0.7
7.7
8.1
9.7 10.1
6.0
6.0
7.3
7.5
3.3
3.3
4.4
4.3 4.6
4.6
4.5
0.7
0.7 0.7
0.7
0.7
8.6
9.1 8.9
9.7
9.1
10.3 10.5 10.1 10.5 10.4
6.0
6.3 6.5
6.4
6.3
7.4
7.8 8.3
7.7
7.8
3.3
3.4 3.4
3.4
3.4
4.5 4.6 4.9

4.7 4.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7
9 5 9.5 9.3
9.8 9.5
10.7 10.8 10.5 10.9 10.7
6.3 6.5 6.6
6.6 6.5
7.6 8.0 8.3
7.8 7.9
3.4 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4
4.6 4.6
4.9 4.8
4.7
0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7
0.7
9.9 10.1
9.9 10.2 10.0
11.0 11.1 10.8 11.2 11.0
6.5 6.7
6.8 6.8
6.7
7.8 8.2
8.6 8.0
8.2
3.5 3.5
3.5 3.6
3.5
Total Non-OECD
39.0 39.9
40.8 42.2 42.4 43.0 42.1
42.6 43.4 43.7 43.8 43.4
44.1 45.0 45.3 45.3 44.9
86.6 85.6
86.8 87.4 89.0 89.8 88.3
88.9 87.9 89.6 90.2 89.2
90.2 89.4 90.9 91.4 90.5
Europe
Pacific
13.3 13.6
4.8
4.5
0.6
0.7
14.0 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.1

4.5
4.2 3.8
4.2
4.2
0.6
0.6 0.6
0.6
0.6
14.4 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.4

4.1 3.8 3.7
4.2 3.9
0.5 0.5 0.5
0.6 0.5
14.7 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6

4.1 3.8
3.8 4.0
3.9
0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7
0.7
Total OECD
18.7 18.8
19.1 18.8 18.4 19.1 18.9
19.0 18.6 18.7 19.3 18.9
19.5 19.0 18.9 19.3 19.2
12.8 13.3
0.1
0.1
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.9
1.7
1.7
2.6
2.6
28.4 29.1
13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5

0.1
0.1 0.1
0.1
0.1
4.0
4.1 4.1
4.2
4.1
3.7
3.7 3.7
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.1 4.1
4.1
4.1
1.7
1.7 1.7
1.7
1.7
2.5
2.5 2.5
2.5
2.5
29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8
13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.6

0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1
4.2 4.2 4.1
4.2 4.2
3.6 3.5 3.5
3.5 3.5
4.2 4.2 4.2
4.4 4.2
1.7 1.6 1.6
1.5 1.6
2.5 2.5 2.5
2.5 2.5
30.1 29.7 29.6 30.0 29.8
13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.8

0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1
0.1
4.3 4.3
4.3 4.3
4.3
3.5 3.5
3.4 3.4
3.5
4.4 4.4
4.5 4.5
4.5
1.7 1.7
1.7 1.7
1.7
2.5 2.6
2.6 2.6
2.6
30.3 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.4
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
La in America
Middle East
Africa
Total Demand
OECD SUPPLY
North America4
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia2
La in America2,4
Middle East
Africa2
Total Non-OECD
Processing Gains3
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
Global Biofuels4
1.4
1.6
1.4
2.0
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.9
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.6
2.0
2.3
2.1
2.0
Total Non-OPEC2
50.6 51.5
52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6
52.7 52.3 52.6 53.4 52.7
53.7 53.6 53.8 54.1 53.8
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition2
49.6 51.5
52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6
52.7 52.3 52.6 53.4 52.7
53.7 53.6 53.8 54.1 53.8
Total OPEC2
31.6 29.1
4.5
4.9
36.2 34.1
29.3 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5

5.2
5.2 5.5
5.6
5.3
34.5 34.5 35.1 35.2 34.8
30.0 29.4 30.0

5.8 5.8 5.9
35.8 35.2 35.9
OPEC: Historical Composition2
37.2 34.1
34.5 34.5 35.1 35.2 34.8
35.8 35.2 35.9
Total Supply6
86.8 85.6
86.6 87.0 87.7 88.3 87.4
88.5 87.5 88.5
0.4
0.0
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
00
-0.4
0.0
OPEC
Crude5
NGLs
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

Reported OECD
Industry
0.3 -0.1
Government
0.0
0.1
Total
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit
Miscellaneous to balance7
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
-0.9
0.1
0.5
0.0
6.0
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.3
0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.9
-0.2
-0.8
0.1
-0.4
0.5
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-1.3
-0.2
-0.8
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.2
-0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-1.3
-1.4
-0.8
-0.5
-0.4
-1.1
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.8
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.9
31.4 29.1
31.3 28.8
29.4 29.7 31.0 31.1 30.3

29.1 28.4 30.1 30.7 29.6
30.4 29.9 31.1 30.8 30.5

30.2 29.1 30.5 30.3 30.1
30.3 29.6 30.7 30.8 30.4

29.9 29.1 30.2 30.3 29.9
1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,
oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
2 Other Asia includes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time.
3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses.
4 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
5 As of the March 2006 OMR, Venezuelan Orinoco heavy crude production is included within Venezuelan crude estimates. Orimulsion fuel remains within the OPEC NGL and
non-conventional category, but Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
6 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
7 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas.
8 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs.
9 Equals the "Call on OPEC + Stock Ch." with "Miscellaneous to balance" added for historical periods and with an average of "Miscellaneous to balance" for the most recent 8 quarters added for forecast periods.
10 N OVEMBER 2011
55
T ABLES
Table 1A
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND: CHANGES FROM LAST MONTH'S TABLE 1
2008 2009
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America
Europe
Pacific
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-
Total OECD
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
0.1
-
-0.1
0.1
-
-0.1
-
Total Non-OECD
0.1
Total Demand
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
North America
Europe
Pacific
-0.1
-
0.2
-0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
Total OECD
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Total Non-OECD
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Processing Gains
Global Biofuels
Total Non-OPEC
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
Non-OPEC: historical composition
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
Crude
NGLs
-0.1
-
Total OPEC
-0.1
OPEC: historical composition
-0.1
Total Supply
-0.2
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

REPORTED OECD
Industry
Government
-
Total
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
NON-OECD DEMAND
OECD SUPPLY
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
OPEC
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit

Miscellaneous to balance
-0.1
-0.1
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-
0.1
-
-0.1
-0.2
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.
When submitting their monthly oil statistics, OECD Member countries periodically update data for prior periods. Similar updates to non-OECD data can occur.
56
10 N OVEMBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 2
SUMMARY OF GLOBAL OIL DEMAND
2009
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
2010
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
2011
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
2012
Demand (mb/d)
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
Asia
Middle East
Latin America
FSU
Africa
Europe
Total Non-OECD
World
23.29
14.66
7.69
45.64
18.19
7.53
5.99
4.18
3.33
0.71
39.93
85.57
23.41
14.31
8.23
45.95
18.97
7.42
6.05
4.38
3.33
0.67
40.82
86.77
23.69
14.25
7.34
45.29
19.59
7.83
6.29
4.33
3.43
0.68
42.15
87.44
24.07
14.92
7.62
46.62
19.05
8.29
6.46
4.57
3.37
0.68
42.42
89.04
23.85
14.82
8.07
46.74
20.20
7.72
6.39
4.58
3.42
0.70
43.01
89.76
23.76
14.58
7.82
46.15
19.46
7.81
6.30
4.47
3.39
0.68
42.11
88.26
23.76
14.18
8.35
46.29
20.22
7.61
6.27
4.46
3.40
0.67
42.64
88.92
23.29
14.11
7.11
44.52
20.31
7.96
6.48
4.63
3.32
0.69
43.40
87.92
23.52
14.70
7.67
45.89
19.86
8.35
6.63
4.85
3.28
0.71
43.69
89.58
23.46
14.58
8.35
46.38
20.65
7.80
6.56
4.70
3.41
0.71
43.82
90.21
23.51
14.39
7.87
45.77
20.26
7.93
6.49
4.66
3.35
0.70
43.39
89.16
23.47
14 05
8 59
46.11
20 97
7 82
6.48
4.60
3 50
0.69
44 05
90.16
23.11
13.91
7.41
44.43
21.20
8.22
6.68
4.61
3.53
0.71
44.96
89.39
23.49
14.60
7.52
45.62
20.76
8.61
6.85
4.86
3.51
0.72
45.31
90.93
23.49
14.47
8.05
46.02
21.45
8.03
6.78
4.79
3.56
0.73
45.35
91.37
23.39
14.26
7.89
45.55
21.10
8.17
6.70
4.72
3.53
0.71
44.92
90.47
of which: US50
Europe 5*
China
Japan
India
Russia
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Korea
Mexico
Iran
Total
18.77
8.98
8.06
4.39
3.26
3.03
2.54
2.47
2.16
2.19
2.07
2.11
60.03
18 87
8.87
8.63
4.82
3.38
3.16
2.60
2.33
2.15
2.31
2.07
2.10
61 30
19.15
8.75
9.06
4.07
3.45
3.17
2.71
2.73
2.17
2.18
2.10
2.08
61.61
19.47
9.15
8.92
4.36
3.14
3.41
2.82
3.02
2.26
2.16
2.05
2.08
62.84
19.23
9.01
9.66
4.57
3.38
3.36
2.80
2.54
2.25
2.35
2.07
2.09
63.31
19.18
8.95
9.07
4.45
3.34
3.28
2.73
2.66
2.21
2.25
2.07
2.09
62.27
19.17
8.70
9 53
4 86
3 50
3 20
2 69
2.47
2 25
2 36
2 03
2 09
62 84
18 82
8 57
9 52
3 92
3 57
3.43
2.76
2 84
2.15
2 04
2 05
2 05
61.72
18.90
8.91
9.34
4.31
3.27
3 66
2.86
3.03
2.25
2.21
2.09
2.05
62.87
18.83
8.83
9.78
4.82
3.51
3.46
2.87
2.60
2.24
2.35
2.08
2.04
63.41
18.93
8.75
9.54
4.48
3.46
3.44
2.79
2.74
2.22
2.24
2.06
2.05
62.71
18 92
8 62
9 95
5.10
3 65
3.31
2.75
2 59
2 21
2 34
2 03
2.12
63 57
18 67
8.44
10 08
4.17
3.70
3 39
2 82
2 95
2.12
2.10
2 04
2 09
62 57
18.91
8.85
9.93
4.23
3.39
3.64
2.93
3.17
2.22
2.15
2.06
2.08
63.55
18.90
8.75
10.23
4.54
3.63
3.52
2.94
2.72
2.21
2.33
2.08
2.06
63.91
18.85
8.66
10.05
4.51
3.59
3.46
2.86
2.86
2.19
2.23
2.05
2.09
63.40
% of World
70.2%
70.7%
70.5%
70.6%
70.5%
70.6%
70.7%
70.2%
70.2%
70.3%
70.3%
70 5%
70 0%
69.9%
69.9%
70.1%
1.5
-0.9
1.5
0.7
6.6
2.6
3.7
1.8
2.1
0.0
4.4
2.5
-1.7
-1.0
-3.1
-1.7
3.7
1.8
2.9
6.8
-3.0
2.0
3.0
0.5
-2.3
-1.5
0.6
-1.6
4.3
0.7
2.7
6.2
-2.7
4.2
3.0
0.6
-1.6
-1.7
3.4
-0.8
2.2
1.1
2.8
2.6
-0.5
1.1
1.9
0.5
-1.0
-1.3
0.7
-0.8
4.1
1.5
3.0
4.3
-1.0
1.8
3.0
1.0
-1.2
-0.9
2.8
-0.4
3.7
2.7
3.3
3.0
3.1
28
3.3
1.4
-0.8
-1.4
4.2
-0.2
4.4
3.2
3.2
-0.4
6.3
2.7
3.6
1.7
-0.1
-0.7
-1.9
-0.6
4.6
3.2
3.2
0.2
6.8
1.0
3.7
1.5
0.2
-0.7
-3.5
-0.8
3.9
3.0
3.3
2.0
4.6
2.1
3.5
1.3
-0.5
-0.9
0.3
-0.5
4.1
3.0
3.3
1.2
5.2
2.2
3.5
1.5
0.35
-0.13
0.12
0.34
1.25
0.19
0.22
0.08
0.07
0.00
1.81
2.15
-0.40
-0.14
-0.23
-0.77
0.72
0.14
0.18
0.30
-0.10
0.01
1.25
0.48
-0.55
-0.22
0.04
-0.73
0.81
0.06
0.17
0.29
-0.09
0.03
1.27
0.54
-0.39
-0.25
0.28
-0.36
0.45
0.08
0.18
0.12
-0.02
0.01
0.81
0.45
-0.25
-0.19
0.05
-0.38
0.80
0.12
0.19
0.19
-0.04
0.01
1.28
0.90
-0.29
-0.13
0.24
-0.18
0.74
0 21
0 21
0.13
0.10
0 02
1.42
1 24
-0.18
-0.20
0.30
-0.08
0.88
0.26
0.21
-0.02
0.21
0.02
1.56
1.48
-0.03
-0.10
-0.14
-0.27
0.90
0.27
0.21
0.01
0.22
0.01
1.62
1.35
0.04
-0.10
-0.29
-0.36
0.81
0.23
0.22
0.09
0.16
0.02
1.52
1.16
-0.11
-0.13
0.03
-0.22
0.84
0.24
0.21
0.05
0.17
0.02
1.53
1.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.02
-0.01
-0.02
0.00
-0.03
0.00
-0.03
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-0.06
-0.08
0.02
-0.09
-0.15
-0.06
-0.01
0.04
-0.02
-0.02
0.02
-0.05
-0.20
-0.05
0.01
-0.02
-0.05
-0.02
0.03
0.02
-0.01
-0.01
0.01
0.02
-0.03
-0.03
0.00
-0.03
-0.06
-0.02
0.01
0.02
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.07
-0.03
-0.01
0.01
-0.03
0.00
0.02
0 01
-0.01
0.00
0 00
0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.02
0.03
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
0.02
-0.02
-0.06
-0.02
0.00
0.03
-0.02
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.05
0.05
0.00
-0.02
0.02
-0.02
0.03
0.02
-0.01
-0.01
0.01
0.02
0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
-0.08
-0.22
-0.05
-0.09
-0.03
0.02
0.14
0.08
0.05
Annual Change (% per annum)

North America
-3.7
-0.1
3.3
3.4
1.3
2.0
Europe
-4.7
-5.2
-1.3
2.2
2.0
-0.6
Pacific
-4.6
1.2
0.4
4.7
0.6
1.7
Total OECD
-4.2
-1.5
1.3
3.3
1.4
1.1
Asia
4.3
11.9
6.8
3.2
6.5
7.0
Middle East
3.5
4.9
3.3
2.9
4.2
3.8
Latin America
0.0
4.6
5.1
6.0
4.5
5.1
FSU
-1.2
8.3
6.6
5.4
7.4
6.9
Africa
1.6
-1.8
1.8
2.1
5.2
1.8
Europe
-6.3
-7.3
-6.7
-3.5
1.4
-4.1
Total Non-OECD
2.5
7.5
5.2
3.6
5.7
5.5
World
-1.2
2.6
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.1
Annual Change (mb/d)
North America
-0.89
-0.01
0.75
0.80
0.31
0.46
Europe
-0.73
-0.78
-0.18
0.33
0.29
-0.08
Pacific
-0.37
0.10
0.03
0.34
0.05
0.13
Total OECD
-1.98
-0.69
0.60
1.47
0.64
0.51
Asia
0.75
2.03
1.25
0.58
1.24
1.27
Middle East
0.25
0.35
0.25
0.23
0.31
0.29
Latin America
0.00
0.27
0.31
0.37
0.27
0.30
FSU
-0.05
0.33
0.27
0.23
0.32
0.29
Africa
0.05
-0.06
0.06
0.07
0.17
0.06
Europe
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.02
0.01
-0.03
Total Non-OECD
0.96
2.86
2.10
1.46
2.32
2.18
World
-1.02
2.17
2.69
2.93
2.96
2.69
Revisions to Oil Demand from Last Month's Report (mb/d)
North America
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pacific
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total OECD
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Asia
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Middle East
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Latin America
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
FSU
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
Africa
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Non-OECD
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
World
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
Revisions to Oil Demand Growth from Last Month's Report (mb/d)
World
-0.04
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
* France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK
10 N OVEMBER 2011
57
T ABLES
Table 2a
OECD REGIONAL OIL DEMAND1

Latest month vs.

2009
2010
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
Jun 11
Jul 11 Aug 11
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
2.83
0.31
10.56
1.61
4.61
0.92
2.45
2.95
0.37
10.57
1.65
4.82
0.93
2.46
2.76
0.39
10.83
1.70
4.76
0.91
2.71
3.12
0.33
10.51
1.63
5.01
0.89
2.36
3.31
0.36
10.14
1.60
5.04
0.97
2.34
2.71
0.35
10.45
1.68
4.77
0.87
2.46
2.68
0.39
10.66
1.76
4.96
0.85
2.64
2.67
0.35
10.56
1.70
4.47
0.68
2.74
Total
23.29
23.76
24.07
23.85
23.76
23.29
23.94
0.96
1.18
2.31
1.25
6.04
1.44
1.50
0.96
1.26
2.21
1.27
6.13
1.27
1.47
0.89
1.26
2.35
1.37
6.14
1.28
1.64
0.96
1.27
2.14
1.26
6.43
1.30
1.46
1.04
1.27
2.02
1.20
6.04
1.29
1.32
0.96
1.17
2.18
1.27
5.73
1.22
1.57
14.66
14.58
14.92
14.82
14.18
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
0.86
1.62
1.55
0.85
1.61
0.77
0.44
0.84
1.68
1.57
0.87
1.62
0.74
0.49
0.80
1.63
1.65
0.65
1.57
0.75
0.58
0.83
1.75
1.59
0.98
1.70
0.73
0.48
Total
7.69
7.82
7.62
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
4.65
3.11
14.41
3.70
12.25
3.13
4.39
4.76
3.31
14.35
3.80
12.57
2.94
4.42
Total
45.64
46.15
Jul 11
Aug 10
2.74
0.34
10.55
1.78
5.06
0.76
2.76
0.07
-0.01
-0.01
0.08
0.59
0.08
0.02
-0.07
-0.05
-0.32
0.07
0.20
-0.11
-0.09
23.18
23.99
0.82
-0.37
0.98
1.13
2.20
1.34
5.80
1.24
1.70
0.92
1.13
2.17
1.36
5.90
1.29
1.61
0.95
1.16
2.24
1.33
6.21
1.22
1.60
0.02
0.03
0.07
-0.02
0.31
-0.07
-0.01
0.04
-0.08
-0.08
-0.03
0.36
-0.03
0.02
14.11
14.39
14.38
14.69
0.32
0.20
0.88
1.78
1.51
1.18
1.67
0.80
0.54
0.81
1.55
1.47
0.64
1.53
0.65
0.47
0.75
1.60
1.49
0.58
1.58
0.70
0.53
0.80
1.71
1.61
0.59
1.61
0.72
0.54
0.81
1.79
1.69
0.63
1.56
0.79
0.53
0.01
0.08
0.09
0.04
-0.06
0.07
0.00
-0.01
0.12
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
0.04
-0.05
8.07
8.35
7.11
7.23
7.56
7.80
0.23
0.07
4.45
3.28
14.83
3.73
12.47
2.94
4.92
4.91
3.36
14.24
3.88
13.14
2.92
4.30
5.23
3.41
13.67
3.98
12.75
3.06
4.19
4.47
3.07
14.11
3.58
12.04
2.74
4.50
4.41
3.11
14.36
3.68
12.34
2.79
4.87
4.39
3.19
14.33
3.65
11.98
2.69
4.88
4.50
3.29
14.48
3.74
12.82
2.76
4.89
0.11
0.10
0.14
0.10
0.84
0.07
0.01
-0.03
-0.01
-0.43
0.03
0.57
-0.10
-0.12
46.62
46.74
46.29
44.52
45.55
45.12
46.48
1.37
-0.09
North America
Europe
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
Pacific
OECD
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
North America comprises US 50 states, US territories, Mexico and Canada.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
58
10 N OVEMBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 2b
OIL DEMAND IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES1

Latest month vs.

2009
2010
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
Jun 11
Jul 11 Aug 11
Jul 11
Aug 10
United States3
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
2.05
2.17
0.25
0.26
9.00
8.99
1.41
1.45
3.63
3.80
0.51
0.54
1.92
1.97
18.77 19.18
2.03
0.27
9.22
1.49
3.75
0.53
2.18
19.47
2.32
0.22
8.92
1.44
3.94
0.52
1.87
19.23
2.47
0.27
8.61
1.40
3.95
0.61
1.86
19.17
1.96
0.27
8.87
1.49
3.75
0.51
1.97
18.82
1.96
0.29
9.05
1.56
3.90
0.47
2.12
19.35
1.94
0.27
8.98
1.48
3.45
0.31
2.19
18.62
1.99
0.25
8.92
1.57
3.97
0.32
2.21
19.23
0.06
-0.03
-0.06
0.10
0.51
0.01
0.02
0.61
-0.03
-0.03
-0.34
0.08
0.14
-0.16
-0.09
-0.43
Japan
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
0.50
0.72
0.99
0.55
0.43
0.42
0.41
0.39
4.39
0.48
0.77
1.00
0.55
0.41
0.43
0.40
0.41
4.45
0.44
0.73
1.08
0.36
0.42
0.38
0.43
0.51
4.36
0.47
0.81
1.00
0.62
0.43
0.44
0.39
0.40
4.57
0.54
0.79
0.95
0.80
0.41
0.48
0.42
0.47
4.86
0.50
0.65
0.92
0.36
0.39
0.36
0.36
0.38
3.92
0.43
0.66
0.95
0.31
0.42
0.35
0.40
0.45
3.96
0.46
0.73
1.03
0.31
0.42
0.39
0.44
0.47
4.24
0.46
0.79
1.10
0.33
0.39
0.35
0.51
0.50
4.44
0.00
0.06
0.08
0.02
-0.02
-0.04
0.07
0.03
0.20
0.02
0.03
-0.02
-0.01
-0.01
-0.02
0.07
-0.03
0.03
0.10
0.36
0.47
0.19
0.64
0.42
0.16
0.11
2.45
0.10
0.41
0.46
0.18
0.67
0.43
0.15
0.09
2.49
0.11
0.41
0.48
0.20
0.71
0.45
0.16
0.12
2.65
0.09
0.41
0.45
0.18
0.69
0.47
0.16
0.09
2.53
0.10
0.44
0.43
0.17
0.63
0.37
0.16
0.05
2.35
0.10
0.40
0.47
0.19
0.67
0.23
0.14
0.12
2.34
0.10
0.38
0.46
0.19
0.64
0.25
0.13
0.13
2.29
0.10
0.39
0.44
0.19
0.67
0.36
0.15
0.13
2.43
0.11
0.41
0.49
0.18
0.73
0.48
0.14
0.12
2.66
0.01
0.02
0.04
-0.01
0.06
0.11
-0.01
0.00
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.02
0.05
0.04
-0.01
0.02
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.25
0.09
0.49
0.13
0.18
0.20
1.54
0.11
0.12
0.24
0.10
0.49
0.12
0.13
0.23
1.53
0.09
0.12
0.26
0.11
0.50
0.11
0.13
0.26
1.58
0.11
0.11
0.24
0.09
0.50
0.14
0.12
0.25
1.56
0.12
0.11
0.22
0.09
0.47
0.11
0.10
0.21
1.43
0.08
0.10
0.24
0.10
0.51
0.09
0.11
0.24
1.47
0.08
0.09
0.24
0.11
0.53
0.09
0.13
0.25
1.51
0.08
0.07
0.23
0.12
0.51
0.09
0.15
0.22
1.48
0.08
0.08
0.24
0.11
0.46
0.10
0.13
0.20
1.40
0.00
0.01
0.01
-0.01
-0.05
0.00
-0.02
-0.02
-0.08
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.01
-0.06
-0.09
0.12
0.13
0.20
0.15
0.67
0.32
0.10
0.18
1.87
0.15
0.13
0.19
0.15
0.69
0.30
0.09
0.17
1.86
0.13
0.12
0.20
0.16
0.71
0.27
0.08
0.19
1.87
0.17
0.10
0.18
0.14
0.69
0.34
0.09
0.15
1.86
0.17
0.13
0.17
0.14
0.69
0.35
0.08
0.13
1.86
0.12
0.14
0.20
0.15
0.71
0.19
0.08
0.19
1.79
0.12
0.14
0.20
0.15
0.72
0.20
0.08
0.21
1.82
0.12
0.14
0.20
0.16
0.70
0.23
0.08
0.20
1.83
0.12
0.14
0.19
0.16
0.69
0.28
0.08
0.16
1.84
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.05
0.00
-0.04
0.00
-0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.04
0.01
-0.01
0.07
0.15
0.02
0.37
0.33
0.43
0.12
0.08
0.14
1.65
0.14
0.03
0.35
0.33
0.45
0.12
0.06
0.14
1.62
0.12
0.03
0.36
0.33
0.45
0.14
0.06
0.15
1.63
0.13
0.02
0.34
0.34
0.44
0.12
0.07
0.15
1.60
0.14
0.03
0.34
0.34
0.45
0.11
0.07
0.15
1.62
0.15
0.03
0.34
0.32
0.45
0.11
0.06
0.16
1.61
0.16
0.03
0.34
0.35
0.46
0.12
0.05
0.17
1.68
0.14
0.02
0.32
0.30
0.43
0.11
0.07
0.16
1.56
0.13
0.02
0.34
0.33
0.45
0.14
0.06
0.15
1.61
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
-0.01
-0.01
0.05
0.02
-0.01
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.02
0.35
0.05
0.73
0.11
0.23
0.28
0.10
0.31
2.16
0.35
0.08
0.73
0.11
0.22
0.31
0.10
0.30
2.21
0.33
0.09
0.77
0.12
0.22
0.31
0.09
0.34
2.26
0.36
0.08
0.73
0.11
0.23
0.34
0.11
0.30
2.25
0.39
0.09
0.69
0.11
0.22
0.36
0.11
0.28
2.25
0.35
0.08
0.74
0.10
0.23
0.28
0.09
0.29
2.15
0.32
0.09
0.76
0.12
0.24
0.27
0.09
0.32
2.21
0.32
0.08
0.77
0.13
0.21
0.30
0.07
0.33
2.21
0.34
0.09
0.77
0.11
0.23
0.31
0.10
0.34
2.31
0.02
0.01
0.01
-0.02
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.00
0.09
-0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.03
Germany
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
Italy
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
France
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
United Kingdom
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
Canada
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
3 US figures exclude US territories.
10 N OVEMBER 2011
59
T ABLES
Table 3
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION

2010
2011
2012
2Q11
3Q11
8.90
3.65
2.67
2.48
2.15
0.59
0.82
1.55
2.25
0.12
1.26
0.50
2.52
9.34
3.53
2.67
2.53
2.26
0.60
0.82
1.69
2.26
0.04
1.28
0.49
2.48
29.45
5.80
29.99
5.91
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
9.50
3.51
2.68
2.53
2.23
0.60
0.82
1.69
2.28
0.00
1.28
0.49
2.51
9.10
3.54
2.70
2.55
2.35
0.60
0.82
1.70
2.18
0.08
1.29
0.50
2.51
9.15
3.53
2.69
2.51
2.35
0.60
0.81
1.72
2.02
0.35
1.29
0.50
2.49
30.11
5.91
29.91
5.91
30.01
5.99
OPEC
Crude Oil
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Neutral Zone
Qatar
Angola
Nigeria
Libya
Algeria
Ecuador
Venezuela
Total Crude Oil6
Total NGLs1,6
6
8.13
3.70
2.36
2.31
2.03
0.53
0.80
1.73
2.08
1.55
1.25
0.47
2.53
29.49
5.35
5.87
6 30
5.99
6.15
6.19
Total OPEC
34.83
35.24
35.90
36.02
35.82
36.00
OPEC: Historical Composition6
34.83
35.24
35.90
36.02
35.82
36.00
NON-OPEC
OECD
North America
United States5
Mexico
Canada
Europe
UK
Norway
Others
Pacific
Australia
Others
14.10
7.77
2.96
3.37
4.15
1.37
2.14
0.65
0.61
0.51
0.10
14.39
7.99
2.93
3.47
3.93
1.20
2.06
0.67
0.54
0.46
0.09
14 58
8.10
2 85
3.63
3 91
1 24
2 03
0.65
0.68
0 59
0 09
14.26
8.04
2.96
3.26
3.80
1.16
1.98
0.66
0.50
0.42
0.08
14.45
8.04
2.92
3.49
3.70
1.04
1.99
0.67
0.54
0.45
0.09
14.48
8.02
2.89
3.58
4.16
1.36
2.12
0.68
0.62
0.53
0.09
14.72
8.08
2.89
3.75
4.10
1.33
2.11
0.67
0.66
0.57
0.09
14.47
8.20
2.88
3.39
3.82
1.23
1.95
0.65
0.68
0.59
0.09
14.73
8.20
2.94
3.59
3.56
0.87
2.00
0.69
0.53
0.44
0.09
14.20
7.89
2.87
3.44
3.78
1.22
1.90
0.66
0.59
0.50
0.09
14.47
8.08
2.90
3.49
4.08
1.30
2.09
0.69
0.60
0.51
0.09
Total OECD
18.87
18.87
19.17
18.57
18.69
19.26
19.49
18.97
18.82
18.57
19.15
13.55
10.45
3.10
13.63
10.57
3.06
13.78
10.67
3.11
13.58
10.55
3.03
13.57
10.58
2.99
13.74
10.63
3.10
13.75
10.61
3.14
13.83
10.67
3.16
13.56
10.52
3.04
13.68
10.65
3.03
13.76
10.67
3.10
Asia
China
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
Others
7.80
4.10
0.72
0.86
0.97
1.14
7.69
4.16
0.63
0.90
0.91
1.09
7.74
4 28
0 58
0 92
0 86
1.10
7.66
4.17
0.61
0.89
0.91
1.07
7.56
4.06
0.63
0.89
0.91
1.07
7.69
4.18
0.57
0.92
0.90
1.10
7.77
4.27
0.58
0.92
0.88
1.11
7.76
4.30
0.58
0.92
0.86
1.09
7.59
4.07
0.67
0.88
0.92
1.05
7.48
4.00
0.59
0.88
0.91
1.09
7.64
4.14
0.58
0.91
0.91
1.10
Europe
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
Latin America
Brazil5
Argentina
Colombia
Others
4.07
2.14
0.69
0.79
0.45
4.22
2.20
0.67
0.92
0.44
4.46
2 34
0.68
1 02
0.42
4.16
2.18
0.61
0.93
0.44
4.18
2.15
0.67
0.92
0.44
4.36
2.28
0.68
0.97
0.43
4.41
2.30
0.68
0.99
0.43
4.44
2.33
0.68
1.01
0.43
4.22
2.14
0.68
0.96
0.44
4.17
2.16
0.69
0.89
0.43
4.29
2.22
0.69
0.96
0.42
1.74
0.87
0.39
0.29
0.19
1.64
0.90
0.34
0.21
0.20
1.69
0 93
0 32
0 24
0.19
1.62
0.88
0.38
0.16
0.20
1.65
0.90
0.34
0.21
0.20
1.55
0.91
0.26
0.18
0.20
1.69
0.92
0.32
0.25
0.20
1.69
0.92
0.32
0.25
0.20
1.71
0.91
0.37
0.23
0.20
1.59
0.91
0.28
0.20
0.20
1.51
0.91
0.24
0.15
0.20
2.52
0.70
0.25
1.58
2.52
0.69
0.24
1.59
2 56
0.68
0 25
1.64
2.51
0.69
0.23
1.58
2.52
0.69
0.24
1.59
2.52
0.68
0.25
1.59
2.55
0.68
0.24
1.62
2.57
0.68
0.24
1.64
2.52
0.69
0.24
1.60
2.52
0.69
0.25
1.59
2.53
0.69
0.25
1.60
Total Non-OECD
29.82
29.85
30 37
29.66
29.62
30.00
30.30
30.42
29.73
29.59
29.87
Processing Gains4
2.10
2.17
2 26
2.14
2.14
2.23
2.28
2.23
2.14
2.14
2.23
Global Biofuels5
1.82
1.86
2 00
1.89
2.16
1.92
1.60
1.99
2.15
2.19
2.10
TOTAL NON-OPEC6
52.61
52.74
53 80
52.26
52.60
53.42
53.67
53.61
52.84
52.48
53.35
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition6
52.61
52.74
53 80
52.26
52.60
53.42
53.67
53.61
52.84
52.48
53.35
TOTAL SUPPLY
87.44
87.51
88.50
88.86
88.30
89.35
NON-OECD
Former USSR
Russia
Others
Middle East
Oman
Syria
Yemen
Others
Africa
Egypt
Gabon
Others
1 Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. Venezuelan Orimulsion (but not Orinoco extra-heavy oil),
and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE. Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
2 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources
3 Includes small amounts of production from Israel, Jordan and Bahrain.
4 Net volumetric gains and losses in refining and marine transportation losses.
5 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
6 Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.
60
10 N OVEMBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 4
OECD INDUSTRY STOCKS AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES

2
North America
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
Europe
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
Pacific
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
Total OECD
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total
RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS
in Million Barrels
in Million Barrels
STOCK CHANGES
in mb/d
May2011
Jun2011
Jul2011
Aug2011
Sep2011*
Sep2008
Sep2009
Sep2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
513.6
247.5
214.0
44.5
670.2
499.7
248.4
213.4
43.9
679.2
485.8
249.8
230.8
45.2
710.6
484.2
246.2
229.5
46.1
708.6
468.8
249.8
230.9
41.9
710.1
434.1
218.1
196.8
47.5
654.2
461.0
243.0
250.4
43.8
745.6
502.4
250.9
245.0
49.0
734.2
-0.30
0.02
-0.07
0.01
-0.32
0.27
-0.03
-0.24
-0.05
-0.58
0.03
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.29
-0.34
0.02
0.19
-0.02
0.34
1338.8
1339.1
1359.4
1360.5
1346.3
1258.7
1372.9
1399.9
-0.77
-0.38
0.49
0.08
319.6
92.2
283.3
67.6
556.1
318.1
92.3
274.1
64.3
545.6
310.1
92.5
272.0
63.3
545.9
310.6
90.8
270.5
67.9
549.7
308.0
90.4
264.9
65.4
542.1
333.1
94.6
266.3
74.7
547.4
330.1
96.1
292.6
69.4
571.1
319.0
94.9
279.4
76.6
561.9
0.04
0.02
-0.02
-0.09
-0.07
0.01
0.04
0.09
-0.01
0.11
-0.05
-0.09
-0.13
-0.03
-0.22
-0.11
-0.02
-0.10
0.01
-0.04
942.4
932.3
923.2
927.0
916.3
952.0
971.0
946.6
0.02
0.06
-0.24
-0.17
161.2
24.8
63.8
21.3
169.6
159.5
25.0
66.8
21.3
171.4
163.7
25.2
66.5
21.2
176.7
154.5
25.1
69.3
19.4
179.6
161.0
28.9
68.7
20.4
186.2
162.1
22.7
74.3
22.3
192.9
165.9
25.1
72.4
21.4
185.1
155.1
23.9
66.4
21.9
177.7
0.03
-0.01
-0.07
-0.03
-0.16
0.00
0.01
-0.06
0.02
-0.09
0.01
0.01
0.14
0.01
0.18
0.02
0.04
0.02
-0.01
0.16
405.5
404.9
411.9
408.0
421.1
430.7
419.2
402.1
-0.13
-0.10
0.26
0.18
994.3
364.5
561.1
133.4
1395.9
977.4
365.6
554.2
129.5
1396.2
959.6
367.5
569.3
129.7
1433.2
949.2
362.0
569.3
133.4
1437.9
937.9
369.0
564.6
127.7
1438.3
929.3
335.4
537.4
144.5
1394.5
957.0
364.2
615.5
134.6
1501.8
976.6
369.6
590.8
147.5
1473.9
-0.23
0.03
-0.16
-0.12
-0.55
0.28
0.02
-0.21
-0.04
-0.56
-0.01
-0.09
-0.03
-0.03
0.25
-0.43
0.04
0.11
-0.02
0.46
2686.6
2676.2
2694.5
2695.4
2683.7
2641.4
2763.1
2748.6
-0.88
-0.41
0.51
0.08
OECD GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED STOCKS5 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES

2
RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS
in Million Barrels
in Million Barrels
STOCK CHANGES
in mb/d
May2011
Jun2011
Jul2011
Aug2011
Sep2011*
Sep2008
Sep2009
Sep2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
North America
Crude
Products
726.5
0.0
726.5
0.0
718.2
0.0
696.5
0.0
694.9
0.0
702.4
2.0
725.1
2.0
726.5
2.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.34
0.00
Europe
Crude
Products
185.6
234.7
184.9
237.1
183.4
237.0
183.2
236.5
183.2
236.5
180.4
233.1
186.3
241.4
182.0
235.4
0.05
-0.01
-0.01
-0.03
-0.01
0.05
-0.02
-0.01
Pacific
Crude
Products
391.1
20.0
391.1
20.0
389.1
18.5
390.6
18.7
390.6
18.7
384.3
19.2
388.4
19.2
381.9
20.0
0.08
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
1303.3
254.7
1302.5
257.1
1290.8
255.5
1270.3
255.2
1268.7
255.2
1267.0
254.2
1299.7
262.5
1290.5
257.4
0.13
-0.01
0.01
-0.05
-0.01
0.05
-0.37
-0.02
1559.4
1560.9
1547.7
1526.9
1525.3
1522.2
1564.0
1549.3
0.12
-0.03
0.04
-0.39
Total OECD
Crude
Products
Total
2Q2011
3Q2011
* estimated
1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by
industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Closing stock levels.
3 Total products includes gasoline, middle distillates, fuel oil and other products.
4 Total includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
5 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
10 N OVEMBER 2011
61
T ABLES
Table 5
TOTAL STOCKS ON LAND IN OECD COUNTRIES
('millions of barrels' and 'days')
End September 2010

Stock
Level
North America
Canada
Mexico
United States4
Days Fwd2
Demand
End December 2010
End March 2011
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
End June 2011 End September 2011

Stock Days Fwd
Level Demand
194.1
49.0
1863.2
85
24
97
194.9
44.5
1796.1
86
22
94
184.6
45.0
1769.5
84
22
94
189.4
46.5
1807.6
2128.4
89
2057.6
87
2021.2
87
2065.6
88
2041.2
87
40.5
581.8
173.5
8.2
41
127
74
53
38.1
588.3
165.4
8.2
39
121
70
51
39.1
575.4
170.2
8.0
39
147
83
53
39.5
593.2
175.2
8.2
804.0
100
800.0
96
792.7
111
816.0
106
830.4
99
18.9
34.3
21.1
26.9
28.5
163.4
285.6
36.3
15.9
11.4
126.6
0.7
121.2
20.8
64.2
22.8
8.6
133.0
34.4
37.7
58.5
94.5
65
51
105
159
121
88
113
95
103
68
81
12
122
77
108
84
101
92
94
146
90
59
19.7
33.6
21.2
26.8
27.8
168.2
286.8
34.3
15.9
9.8
133.3
0.6
125.8
20.8
65.5
22.9
8.3
133.2
32.4
36.8
58.5
88.8
77
50
117
171
127
91
122
92
119
63
93
10
129
81
123
89
109
93
94
156
101
55
19.4
37.0
21.5
21.4
26.9
167.4
289.4
33.9
17.4
10.8
131.8
0.5
125.7
21.1
62.8
23.5
9.0
132.9
33.7
36.6
58.3
92.8
77
59
106
132
133
94
124
106
124
79
90
9
124
96
109
87
111
97
101
168
85
57
19.6
38.1
21.7
21.5
27.0
166.7
290.8
32.6
17.3
10.2
130.0
0.6
117.8
23.5
64.6
23.3
8.9
130.1
32.6
37.2
56.6
84.9
Total
1365.5
92
1371.1
97
1374.0
98
1355.6
92
1337.3
92
Total OECD
4297.9
-
92
145
4228.7
-
91
146
4187.9
-
94
146
4237.1
-
92
147
4208.9
-
91
Total
Pacific
Australia
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
Total
Stock Days Fwd

Level Demand
Europe
Austria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
DAYS OF IEA Net Imports
1 Total Stocks are industry and government-controlled stocks (see breakdown in table below). Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks
and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) they include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserves commitments and are
subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Note that days of forward demand represent the stock level divided by the forward quarter average daily demand and is very different from the days of net
imports used for the calculation of IEA Emergency Reserves.
3 End September 2011 forward demand figures are IEA Secretariat forecasts.
4 US figures exclude US territories. Total includes US territories.
5 Data not available for Iceland.
6 Reflects stock levels and prior calendar year's net imports adjusted according to IEA emergency reserve definitions (see www.iea.org/netimports.asp).
Net exporting IEA countries are excluded.
TOTAL OECD STOCKS

CLOSING STOCKS
Total
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4164
4206
4278
4306
4327
4205
4241
4319
4298
4229
4188
4237
4209
Government
Industry
controlled
Millions of Barrels
1522
1527
1547
1561
1564
1564
1567
1562
1549
1561
1558
1561
1525
2641
2679
2731
2745
2763
2641
2675
2757
2749
2668
2630
2676
2684
Total
88
90
96
95
94
92
94
93
92
91
94
92
91
Industry
Government
controlled
2
Days of Fwd. Demand
32
33
35
35
34
34
35
34
33
34
35
34
33
56
57
61
61
60
57
59
59
59
58
59
58
58
1 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
2 Days of forward demand calculated using actual demand except in 3Q2011 (when latest forecasts are used).
62
10 N OVEMBER 2011
T ABLES
Table 6
IEA MEMBER COUNTRY DESTINATIONS OF SELECTED CRUDE STREAMS1

2008 2009 2010
3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
Jun 11
Jul 11 Aug 11
Year Earlier
change
Aug 10
Saudi Light & Extra Light

North America
Europe
Pacific
0.70
0.70
1.22
0.52
0.59
1.28
0.69
0.66
1.21
0.73
0.74
1.15
0.75
0.69
1.26
0.71
0.70
1.33
0.72
0.79
1.14
0.73
0.80
1.08
0.53
0.96
1.25
0.55
1.00
1.12
0.85
0.75
1.14
-0.30
0.25
-0.02
Saudi Medium
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.64
0.05
0.39
0.40
0.02
0.34
0.36
0.00
0.34
0.33
0.30
0.36
0.37
0.33
0.39
0.36
0.02
0.38
0.37
0.05
0.40
0.43
0.04
0.38
0.33
0.07
0.47
0.31
0.33
0.02
0.14
Saudi Heavy
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.07
0.09
0.24
0.03
0.02
0.15
0.02
0.00
0.22
0.03
0.00
0.23
0.01
0.21
0.02
0.00
0.20
0.03
0.00
0.21
0.02
0.00
0.22
0.02
0.04
0.25
0.02
0.19
0.02
0.24
-0.04
Iraqi Basrah Light

North America
Europe
Pacific
0.60
0.21
0.15
0.40
0.12
0.24
0.36
0.09
0.29
0.29
0.13
0.26
0.29
0.08
0.38
0.21
0.03
0.40
0.41
0.10
0.26
0.39
0.14
0.15
0.22
0.17
0.41
0.47
0.21
0.39
0.27
0.23
0.25
0.20
-0.02
0.13
Iraqi Kirkuk
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.08
0.23
-
0.06
0.31
-
0.03
0.27
-
0.05
0.25
-
0.04
0.23
-
0.11
0.21
-
0.07
0.31
-
0.14
0.44
-
0.40
-
0.15
0.29
-
0.05
0.18
-
0.10
0.11
-
Iranian Light
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.23
0.08
0.15
0.07
0.24
0.04
0.33
0.04
0.18
0.01
0.24
0.06
0.28
0.03
0.28
0.02
0.23
0.03
0.20
0.07
0.41
0.02
-0.22
0.04
0.49
0.61
0.40
0.57
0.49
0.52
0.70
0.53
0.43
0.52
0.34
0.63
0.59
0.41
0.83
0.44
0.80
0.51
0.68
0.49
0.64
0.38
0.03
0.12
Venezuelan Light & Medium

North America
0.62
Europe
0.06
Pacific
-
0.39
0.07
-
0.14
0.02
-
0.08
0.05
-
0.16
0.01
-
0.06
0.03
-
0.30
0.01
-
0.40
0.01
-
0.18
0.01
-
0.31
0.01
-
0.02
0.09
-
0.28
-0.08
-
Venezuelan 22 API and heavier

North America
0.65
Europe
0.07
Pacific
-
0.75
0.07
-
0.86
0.06
-
0.96
0.06
-
0.75
0.05
-
0.89
0.04
-
0.77
0.05
-
0.78
0.07
-
0.79
0.07
-
0.77
0.07
-
1.07
0.05
-
-0.30
0.02
-
Mexican Maya
North America
Europe
Pacific
1.02
0.14
-
0.93
0.10
-
0.91
0.11
-
0.94
0.11
-
0.92
0.09
-
0.82
0.14
-
0.80
0.12
-
0.79
0.10
-
0.82
0.17
-
0.93
0.09
-
1.18
0.14
-
-0.25
-0.06
-
Mexican Isthmus
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.01
0.01
-
0.01
0.01
-
0.04
0.02
-
0.02
-
0.09
0.05
-
0.05
0.01
-
0.08
0.02
-
0.14
-
0.05
0.01
-
0.06
-
0.01
-
0.05
-
Russian Urals
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.05
1.81
-
0.15
1.72
-
0.08
1.80
-
0.08
1.88
-
0.03
1.71
-
0.01
1.76
-
1.87
-
1.60
-
1.65
-
1.35
-
0.22
1.79
-
-0.44
-
Nigerian Light
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.68
0.29
-
0.54
0.32
0.00
0.60
0.34
-
0.64
0.31
-
0.58
0.49
-
0.62
0.40
0.05
0.60
0.40
0.04
0.58
0.40
0.03
0.59
0.46
0.06
0.48
0.62
0.05
0.69
0.35
-
-0.20
0.27
-
Nigerian Medium
North America
Europe
Pacific
0.27
0.14
-
0.21
0.13
-
0.25
0.09
-
0.25
0.09
-
0.22
0.11
-
0.20
0.14
-
0.18
0.17
-
0.23
0.24
-
0.21
0.06
-
0.17
0.14
-
0.26
0.11
-
-0.10
0.03
-
Iranian Heavy
North America
Europe
Pacific
1 Data based on monthly submissions from EA countries to the crude oil import register (in '000 bbl), subject to availability. May differ from Table 8 of the Report.
IEA North America includes United States and Canada.
IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Hungary. The Slovak Republic and Poland is excluded through December 2007 but included thereafter.
IEA Pacific data includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan.
2 Iraqi Total minus Kirkuk.
3 Iranian Total minus Iranian Light.
4 33 API and lighter (e g., Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua boe and Oso Condensate).
10 N OVEMBER 2011
63
T ABLES
Table 7
REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS1,2

(thousand barrels per day)
2008
Crude Oil
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
2009
Jul-11 Aug-11
Year Earlier
Aug-10 % change
2010
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
Jun-11
8076 7353
7346
9776 8893
9076
6605 6082
6249
24457 22329 22671
7745
9463
6160
23367
6625
9110
6479
22213
6571
8901
6645
22117
6928
8903
6086
21917
7069
9280
6105
22454
6992
9303
6261
22556
6734
9583
6232
22550
7462
9815
6177
23857
-10%
-2%
1%
-5%
LPG
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
31
268
589
887
13
260
529
802
8
270
558
836
7
226
533
766
6
299
567
872
21
313
569
904
4
284
547
836
1
306
447
755
4
279
642
926
4
297
525
825
7
229
579
815
-50%
30%
-9%
1%
Naphtha
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
56
298
776
1130
22
352
841
1215
36
390
900
1326
59
345
855
1260
35
382
893
1309
34
292
917
1243
51
336
830
1217
70
339
856
1266
41
353
881
1275
45
218
928
1191
61
294
798
1153
-27%
-26%
16%
3%
Gasoline
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
1077
215
90
1383
878
193
96
1167
788
174
64
1025
926
207
44
1177
712
127
67
907
668
223
71
961
981
221
61
1262
947
238
51
1236
739
213
59
1011
779
228
87
1093
976
190
49
1215
-20%
20%
77%
-10%
Jet & Kerosene

North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
64
401
34
500
62
452
53
567
76
417
40
532
86
475
29
590
89
396
46
531
62
320
58
440
86
367
43
497
85
388
51
525
103
449
36
587
71
449
39
559
86
507
26
618
-18%
-11%
54%
-10%
Gasoil/Diesel
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
74
871
119
1064
55
1035
87
1177
49
1045
97
1191
27
934
88
1049
14
1235
92
1340
46
1078
99
1224
30
931
153
1114
16
784
125
924
23
929
121
1073
25
779
113
917
33
839
64
936
-24%
-7%
77%
-2%
Heavy Fuel Oil

North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
288
458
125
871
270
534
113
917
277
529
117
923
285
504
127
915
254
502
101
857
345
505
147
997
305
582
111
997
309
580
104
993
179
663
132
974
204
676
169
1049
232
488
136
857
-12%
38%
24%
22%
Other Products
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
1078
734
298
2110
870
770
325
1964
805
666
335
1806
852
699
382
1932
906
737
352
1996
855
683
383
1921
896
776
252
1924
871
759
223
1853
994
675
317
1986
833
865
318
2016
900
737
373
2010
-7%
17%
-15%
0%
Total Products
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
2667
3245
2032
7944
2171
3595
2045
7810
2038
3491
2111
7639
2241
3390
2059
7689
2017
3678
2118
7812
2032
3415
2244
7690
2355
3497
1995
7848
2300
3394
1858
7551
2083
3560
2188
7832
1960
3513
2179
7652
2296
3283
2025
7604
-15%
7%
8%
1%
10743 9524
9384
13022 12488 12567
8637 8127
8360
32401 30139 30310
9985
12853
8218
31056
8641
12788
8596
30025
8603
12316
8888
29807
9283
12401
8081
29765
9369
12673
7963
30005
9075
12864
8449
30388
8695
13096
8411
30202
10160
13098
8202
31461
-14%
0%
3%
-4%
Total Oil
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels.
2 Excludes intra-regional trade.
3 Includes additives.
64
10 N OVEMBER 2011
OECD//IEA
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10 November 2011

OPEC supply rose by 95 kb/d to 30.01 mb/d in October, with higher

OECD industry oil stocks declined by 11.8mb to 2684mb in

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

DISTILLATES, DERIVATIVES & DOWNSIDE RISK

OECD Middle Distillate Stocks

Middle Distillates Driving Demand Trends

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Global Oil Demand (2010-2012)

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

World: Total Oil Product Demand

Gasoil Demand, Actual & F'Cast

Global Oil Demand Growth 2010/2011/2012

Global Demand Growth

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

OECD: Demand by Driver, Y-o-Y Chg

OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - September 2011

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

OECD North America: Demand by

OECD North America:

US50 Monthly Revisions:

US50: Residual Fuel Oil Demand

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

US50: Gasoil Demand

Mexico: Motor Gasoline Demand

OECD Europe: Demand by Driver,

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

France: Motor Gasoline Demand

Germany: Heating Oil Demand

The Winter That Cries Wolf for Heating Oil

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

The Winter That Cries Wolf for Heating Oil (continued)

US Northeast: Households by Primary

US50: Gasoil Demand, mb/d

Source: EIA; 2011/2012 is EIA projection

Heating & Other Gasoil (RHS)

OECD Pacific: Demand by Driver,

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Japan : Oil Consumption (Crude +

Korea: Naphtha Demand

m b/d Non-OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Non-OECD: Demand by Product

LPG & Ethane

Jet Fuel & Kerosene

Residual Fuel Oil

Non-OECD: Demand by Region

China: Residual Fuel Oil Demand

China: Apparent Gasoil Demand

10N OVEMBER 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT