Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Jevan Fox
Research Analyst
Bob Gohn
Senior Analyst
Clint Wheelock
Managing Director
Section 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The worldwide electrical grid is perhaps the greatest technical innovation of the 20th
century, delivering the life blood for technical advances in computing and communications
that have occurred in recent decades. However, the days of taking the grid for granted are
coming to a close, as economic, technical, environmental, and political challenges call for
fundamental changes in how electricity is generated, distributed, and used.
The key market issues driving change in the electric grid can be placed into four
categories:
Improved reliability and security, as societys dependence on electricity has long passed
the critical mark;
Reducing waste incurred by operating inefficiencies, as costs and consumption increase;
Responding to the growing imbalances between worldwide supply and demand in power
generation and distribution capacity, generation fuels, and the associated price volatility;
Reducing the overall electrical systems impact on climate change, while meeting the
challenge of increased demand as other infrastructures, most notably transportation, lean
more heavily on electricity as the energy source of choice.
Ironically, the electrical grid itself has not yet taken full advantage of the integrated
intelligence of the computing and communications technologies that it enables. This is an
enormous technical and economic gap, but also represents tremendous opportunity to
transform the current infrastructure into a smart grid that can deliver more efficiency and
capacity using the existing system. The challenge is implementing such a large scale
transformation in an evolutionary manner by leveraging a wide range of new technologies,
which is analogous to switching engines on an airplane in mid-flight.
No doubt, barriers to this transformation exist, and go well beyond pure technical and
economic issues including the lack of a common vision and/or standards, outdated and
fragmented business and regulatory models, and the lack of awareness (and often trust) of
the consuming public. However, government and industry bodies are coming together with
newfound urgency spurred in some regions by copious amounts of economic stimulus
funds to develop and articulate architectural frameworks and standards.
As so often happens, the term smart grid has come to mean many different things to the
various constituencies involved. Pike Research has found it useful to consider the smart
grid in three key dimensions:
Functional characteristics: includes end-to-end integrated communications
infrastructure, providing real-time visibility to operators and users; integration of
distributed, renewable generation resources; consumer-level energy management
enablement; and support for electric vehicles (EVs).
Component technologies: includes smart meters; application of existing and new wide
area and home-based networking; new distributed sensors; a variety of demand
response (DR) systems; automation of utility transmission, distribution, and substation
systems; and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies.
$35,000
(Millions)
$30,000
$25,000
Advanced Metering
Infrastructure (AMI)
$20,000
Electric Vehicle
Management Systems
$15,000
Distribution Automation
Substation Automation
$10,000
Transmission Upgrades
$5,000
$0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
The implications of this market growth will be significant, but not without risks. The
transformation, and ultimately the success, of the smart grid is dependent on consumer
behaviors, government policies, financial stability of utilities and energy suppliers,
cooperation between loosely linked industries, and the underlying technologies. But, as
electricity is the life blood of our modern world, the forces pushing for ultimate success are
strong.
Section 9
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section 1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1
Section 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 4
Market Issues .............................................................................................................................................. 4
2.1
Introduction and Background ........................................................................................................ 4
2.2
Market Drivers ............................................................................................................................... 5
2.2.1 Electricity Reliability and Security............................................................................................ 5
2.2.2 Operating Cost Reductions ..................................................................................................... 6
2.2.3 Electricity Supply Demand Gaps .......................................................................................... 6
2.2.4 Responding to Climate Change .............................................................................................. 7
2.3
Barriers to Smart Grid Deployment ............................................................................................... 7
2.4
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act .................................................................................. 7
2.5
Smart Grid Definition ..................................................................................................................... 8
2.5.1 Functional Characteristics of the Smart Grid .......................................................................... 8
2.5.2 Inventory of Smart Grid Technologies ..................................................................................... 9
2.5.2.1
Advanced Metering Infrastructure/Smart Meters ............................................................ 9
2.5.2.2
Wide Area Network Communications Technologies ...................................................... 9
2.5.2.3
Home Area Network Technologies ................................................................................. 9
2.5.2.4
Sensor Networking Technologies ................................................................................. 10
2.5.2.5
Demand Response Systems ........................................................................................ 10
2.5.2.6
Distribution Automation Systems .................................................................................. 10
2.5.2.7
Substation Automation Systems ................................................................................... 10
2.5.2.8
Advanced Transmission Systems ................................................................................ 11
2.5.2.9
Energy Storage ............................................................................................................. 11
2.5.2.10 Vehicle-to-Grid Charging Infrastructure for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles ............... 11
2.5.3 Key Applications for Smart Grid Technologies...................................................................... 11
2.5.3.1
Customer Monitoring and Control of Energy Usage ..................................................... 11
2.5.3.2
Time-of-Use Pricing ...................................................................................................... 11
2.5.3.3
Price Signaling to Customers ....................................................................................... 12
2.5.3.4
Peak Shaving via Remote Control of Customer Power Consumption ......................... 12
2.5.3.5
Net Metering for Solar and Wind Power ....................................................................... 13
2.5.3.6
Utility Grid Outage and Fault Management .................................................................. 13
2.5.3.7
Utility Operating Efficiency Improvements .................................................................... 14
2.5.3.8
Use of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles ........................................................................ 14
2.5.3.9
Mobile Workforce Management for Utility Technicians ................................................ 14
Section 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 15
Consumer Attitudes .................................................................................................................................. 15
3.1
Introduction and Overview .......................................................................................................... 15
3.2
Survey Methodology ................................................................................................................... 15
3.3
Energy Information Displays ....................................................................................................... 15
3.3.1 Market Overview.................................................................................................................... 15
3.3.2 Consumer Interest in Energy Information Displays ............................................................... 16
3.3.3 EID Interest among Demographic and Behavioral Groups ................................................... 17
3.3.4 Energy Information User Profiles .......................................................................................... 19
3.3.5 Information Display Type Preferences .................................................................................. 21
3.3.6 EID Payment Preferences ..................................................................................................... 22
3.3.7 Energy Management Service Provider Preferences ............................................................. 23
105
106
107
108
Section 10
TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES
Chart 1.1
Chart 3.1
Chart 3.2
Chart 3.3
Chart 3.4
Chart 3.5
Chart 3.6
Chart 3.7
Chart 3.8
Chart 3.9
Chart 3.10
Chart 6.1
Chart 6.2
Chart 6.3
Chart 6.4
Chart 6.5
Chart 6.6
Chart 6.7
Chart 6.8
Chart 6.9
Chart 6.10
Chart 6.11
Figure 2.1
Figure 2.2
Figure 2.3
Figure 4.1
Figure 4.2
Figure 4.3
Figure 4.4
Figure 4.5
Figure 4.6
Figure 4.7
Figure 4.8
Figure 4.9
Figure 5.1
Figure 6.1
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Section 11
SCOPE OF STUDY
Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants in the emerging smart grid market
(equipment and hardware vendors, utilities, software companies, installation and service providers, and
other system component manufacturers) with a study of the global market potential for smart grid
technologies including AMI, transmission upgrades, SA, DA, EV management systems, energy
management systems, and other categories.
The reports purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of all of the technologies and
industries that may be related to smart grid deployments, but rather a strategic examination of the smart
grid market focusing on business models, key technology issues, regulatory factors, customer demand
dynamics, and the competitive landscape. Pike Research strives to identify and examine new market
segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are
included. The forecast period extends through 2015.
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NOTES
CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula:
CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value)(1/steps) 1.
CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are
given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be
given as well.
Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues,
shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed
in year 2009 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding
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Published 4Q 2009
2009 Pike Research LLC
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