Christchurch Transportation Planning Post Feb 2011 Earthquake

Presented by Andrew Metherell

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Contents
Introduction Land Use
Available Data Estimating Changes

Modelling
The CTM Application and Results

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Where is Christchurch?

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Christchurch Statistics
Population: Households: Total Area: 415,000 150,000 1,425 km2

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The Earthquakes

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~1,200 road surface defects

>50,000 road surface defects

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The Effects
Roads closed, CBD shut Households, business, schools and shops re-located Traffic increases on key routes Increased travel time Reduced trip reliability

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The Responses
Get Christchurch Moving Emergency Response Keep Christchurch Moving Review of Forward Capital Works Programme

Utilise Christchurch Transportation Model (CTM)

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The Model
Land use based, various forecast years Person-based travel Strategic network representation Wide geographic area Daily travel calculations

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Christchurch Transportation Model

Land Use Data Policy Assumptions Zonal Trip Ends Generation

Modal Choice

Trip Distribution

Route Choice (Assignment)

Network Data

Results
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Modelling Plan
Immediate effects covered by emergency response 6 month post EQ (2011) Compare pre and post EQ travel demand changes Confirm observed change in travel patterns 5 years hence, 2016 various rates of recovery to CBD Identify recovery travel demand changes Test forward work programme effects Long term, 2026 and 2041, assume full recovery (for now)
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Land Use Available Data

Post Redirections Residential stickers (red/yellow/green) Local knowledge
Transport planners Real estate experts

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Household Postal Redirections

FROM TO

As of 12 April 2011 64% redirects remain with City

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Net Postal Redirections

3,700 redirects from (red) 2,400 redirects to (green) Excludes PO boxes
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Stickers/Placards
What do the three colours mean?
RED Do not enter a red placarded building because it is unsafe YELLOW Buildings suitable for restricted access until issues are resolved GREEN Building accessed and no structural hazards apparent

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Residential Sticker Status

Red or yellow stickers 5,750 households lost

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Land Use Estimating Changes

Determine overall net loss (pop/HHs) Determine geographic distribution
Reductions But increases in some areas

With CBD closed, where will business (& jobs) be?

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Net Loss Population / HHs

Population loss
10,000 Christchurch

Estimate household reduction from population (2.6 ppl/hh) 3,800 less households

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Geographic Distribution
Household loss areas
Residential sticker status Postal redirection

Vacant residential land

Where will people move to? Zoned vacant residential land Some in damaged areas

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CBD Job Loss

Main job loss in CBD
Unemployment likely to rise (so fewer jobs overall) Pre-quake 55,900 Post-quake 30,900
CBD Fringe -50%* Pre=8,100 Post=4,900

CBD Outer -10% Pre=25,100 Post=24,400

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Job changes around the city

AIRPORT

CBD

PORT

Existing Major Business Areas

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Roads of National Significance

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Modelling Scenarios Evaluated

2011 Pre 2011 Pre Post Post 2016 Pre 2026 2041 Pre Pre
4 Stage Model Run Assignment only, fixed demands
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Post

2016 Onwards Initial RoNS Full RoNS

LAND USE

Forecast Post-Quake Changes

2011 Daily Demand
INCREASE DECREASE

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Future Network Implementation Initial RoNS

2016 Daily Demand Change with Initial Road of National Significance (CSM1 and Western Corridor)
INCREASE DECREASE

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Initial RoNS Congestion Relief

Land use: 2016 Post-Quake Network: 2011 Post-Quake Land use: 2016 Post-Quake Network: 2011 Initial RoNS

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Outcomes
CTM useful in post earthquake planning Traffic forecasts consistent with post quake counts Able to demonstrate initial RoNs required

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Acknowledgements

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Questions?

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