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Company Description: Northern Graphite is a mine developer with its 100% owned asset, Bissett Creek, located in Maria Township right off the Trans-Canada highway and approximately 100 km east of North Bay. Northern Graphite plans on bringing the project to production by end of year 2012.
Jonathan Lee, MBA Battery Materials & Technologies 647.426.1674 jlee@byroncapitalmarkets.com Sandy Lam Associate 647.426.0287 slam@byroncapitalmarkets.com
Summary: With known metallurgy, infrastructure in place, a relatively low capex and a short time to production, risk is minimized for the Bissett Creek project that is expected to have $19.5 million per year in gross profit in 2013, with the potential to generate $39 million in gross profit by doubling production to meet demand from growing battery production. We are initiating coverage on Northern Graphite with a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and $1.90 target price based on 1.0x NAV using a 14% discount rate.
Please see end of this report for important disclosures
Graphite Overview
Graphite has long been an ugly and unloved material. Most of us are exposed to graphite only through the lead in the ubiquitous pencil, but industrial uses for graphite dominate this market. There are actually four forms of crystalline carbon; the most famous being diamond, but graphite is one of the four as well. Graphite has the advantage of being relatively chemically inert, while exhibiting the best electrical and thermal conductivity of all non-metallic solids. The graphite industry is approximately 1.1 million tonnes per year with about 75% of graphite being produced in China and the bulk of the remaining material sourced from North Korea, Brazil, Sri Lanka and Canada. Given the dominant market share of China and its implementation of a 20% export duty and a 17% value added tax, graphite prices have more than doubled in the past year for a range of different graphite grades and products. There are two sources of graphite. The first is mining graphite from deposits. This natural material has varying levels of quality/purity/size, ranging from lump (or vein) to amorphous to crystalline flake. However, contaminant loads can vary widely and this heavily influences the use of the material in some applications and its pricing; the carbon content of the graphite required for an application can range from 70% up to 99.9% or higher. The other source of graphite is to heat a feedstock such as petroleum coke to very high temperatures for days in a special furnace and create very pure synthetic graphite. Natural graphite finds uses in such areas as the making of refractories, as it can handle very hot materials such as molten metals. Refractories are best made from crystalline graphite, but new developments are increasing the use of amorphous graphite in this application. Steelmaking requires the addition of carbon to bring its level up to a desired point, which is called carbon raising. While graphite can be used to do this, so too can any other source of carbon that contains little in the way of other metal contaminants, including petroleum coke. Thus, the price for carbon raising materials is very low. Expanded graphite is graphite that has been acid treated to separate the sheets of carbon atoms that make up flake graphite and make it amenable for use as a high temperature seal or insulator. Amorphous or small flake graphite is used to make brake linings, although some new materials are taking market share from graphite. Foundry facings, the use of amorphous or small flake graphite to coat moulds for molten metal and make it easier to remove the poured part, is also a use for natural graphite, albeit a smaller one. Synthetic graphite is used to make electrodes that are used within arc furnaces, with the scrap from the manufacturing of these electrodes used as carbon raising material in the same steel plants. Synthetic graphite that is high in quality and purity is also used in the nuclear industry and to make carbon fibre products. In the past, synthetic graphite was also the only choice for battery manufacturers making anodes for both primary (disposable) and secondary (rechargeable) cells. However, various processes have been developed, including chemical and thermal treatments, to purify natural graphite to the point where it can be used as a battery anode. And with some other properties that natural graphite brings to the table and its cost advantage, it may well prove to be the performance and value leader in the battery market in the future. With the amount of graphite used in batteries approximately 10 times more than that of lithium, and the replacement of synthetic graphite with flake, we believe the growth of larger flake graphite is robust in the future. Thus, Northern Graphites ability to produce high carbon content, large flake graphite will enable the company to take advantage of lithium-ion battery demand growth.
Jonathan Lee, MBA 647.426.1674 jlee@byroncapitalmarkets.com
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An initial resource and a scoping study were completed for the 100%-owned Bissett Creek deposit in 2010. The graphite deposit is hosted in weathered graphitic gneiss. The deposit is fairly flat, dipping approximately 5 to 20 degrees and is at surface with less than 10 metres of overburden. The thickness of the deposit is approximately 75 metres providing for an easy open pit operation. The flatness of the deposit at surface is shown in Exhibit 2. Industrial Minerals Inc. (Industrial Minerals) previously tried to start up a small operation but because the company used a flawed dry recovery process, it was unable to achieve continuous operation. Northern Graphite will take advantage of these characteristics of the deposit. We believe minimal overburden will lower capital costs for clearing the overburden and the shallow dip will maintain a low mining strip ratio, reducing operating costs over the long term.
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SGS compiled a resource in 2010 using previous drill results, in the indicated and inferred category. The resource is sufficient for over 35 years of production at 20,000 tpa using a 1.5% graphitic carbon cut-off grade. The deposit is associated with larger flake material with all material expected, after processing, to remain at greater than 100 mesh size while being over 94% carbon concentrate. Exhibit 3 NI 43-101 Compliant Resource
Cutoff Grade (%C) 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50%
1
Indicated Graph CContained LECO (%) (000 tonnes C) 1.97% 403 2.24% 328 2.58% 226 2.88% 131
Total: Contained Total Contained Mine Life (000 kg C) (000 tonnes C) (Years)1 498,408 901 21.40 398,397 726 17.25 268,118 495 11.75 133,547 265 6.29
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An inevitable added resource will let NGC double production while still maintaining a sufficient LOM
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NGC has a simple flow sheet to have a high recovery yield while preserving the large flake nature of the graphite
after speaking with management, recent test results indicate that almost all material will be larger than +100 mesh. +48 mesh will sell at premium prices even relative to +100 mesh. Higher graphite content and larger size increase the products average selling price on a per tonne basis. Exhibit 5 - Simple Flow Schematic
Mine
Sag Mill
Float
Pebble Mill
Cleaner
Screen
Thickener
Ball Mill
Secondary Float
Secondary Cleaner
Dryer
Graphite Bins
+80 mesh percentage is an approximate value. From the Scoping Study, 70% is expected to be +48 mesh and all material will be +100 mesh Source: Magnesita Refratarios S.A., Northern Graphite Corp.
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Valuation
We estimate that the capital costs to build the mine will be $70 million with half of the capital costs being financed with debt at 10% for a duration of 10 years with the remaining $35 million through raised equity. Production will begin in 2013 at a rate of 19,000 tpa of graphite, with 70% sold at +48 mesh size at an average price of $2,200/tonne while the -48+100 mesh size graphite would be the remaining 30% being sold at $1,800/tonne graphite. On the cost side, we have taken operating costs to approximately $1,100/tonne graphite produced. This takes into consideration the simple flow sheet of mine, crush, grind, float and re-float while achieving 95% yield, which is inline with previous metallurgical work and should be confirmed again in September 2011. Additionally, we have taken into consideration the $20/tonne royalty on graphite produced. Given our expectation that graphite demand growth will continue, especially for larger flake graphite used in Li-ion batteries, and Northern Graphites ability to scale up the project, we expect the company to double production in 2016 to meet that surging demand, mainly from the automotive sector. We have used conservative pricing for Northern Graphites large flake 94% carbon content material (see Exhibit 10). By looking at Exhibit 9, you can see the sensitivity to graphite pricing. Thus, less conservative graphite pricing can dramatically increase the value of the project.
As a near-term mine developer, Northern Graphite can add value to the firm quickly by ramping up production and cash flow
$0 $0
$7,890 $23,054 $22,431 $23,389 $24,225 $24,973 $25,657 $28,216 $383 $766 $766 $766 $766 $766 $766 $766 $7,218 $4 $5,731 $3,387 $4,551 $2 $3,613 $2 $2,869 $1 $2,278 $0 $1,809 ($0) $0 ($1)
($2,041) ($42,487) 14% ($2,041) ($37,269) $78,251 $3,000 $5,174 45,602 $1.90
$8,211 $11,753 ($18,201) $21,417 $22,677 $22,344 $22,048 $21,777 $21,522 $27,451 $274,506 $6,318 $7,933 ($10,777) $11,123 $10,331 $8,929 $7,729 $6,696 $5,805 $6,495 $56,976
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Conclusion
Northern Graphite is a late stage graphite mine developer that should have a producing mine by selling high-value graphite flakes in 2013 into the growing lithium-ion battery market. The company has begun the permitting process and given that the project flow sheet is simplistic and infrastructure is nearby, construction time should be about one year. We believe Bissett Creeks deposit size will also allow for Northern Graphite to more than double its production while maintaining over 20 years of resource. Low risk upcoming catalysts should keep investors excited about the company over the next six months. May 2011 results from step-out drilling indicate a significantly larger resource that will be released in a couple months followed by the BFS, which we expect to be released in November 2011. Also, pilot work is scheduled to be performed in September 2011 and given that the metallurgical work has been done twice, we foresee this as confirmation of past work. More importantly, it will provide Northern Graphite with material for strategic investors and/or off-take partners. Graphite prices have exploded over the past year, as China dominates the market with over 70% of market share and imposing a 20% export duty and a 17% value added tax on its graphite. Northern Graphites ability to come to market quickly and cheaply will allow the company to take advantage of the situation as well as continue to deliver continued news flow to the investor. We initiate coverage on Northern Graphite with a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and $1.90 target price based on 1.0x NAV using a 14% discount rate.
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Jay Chmelauskas, Director Mr. Chmelauskas is President of Western Lithium Corp. and was previously the President and CEO of China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. (formerly Jinshan Gold Mines), where he successfully managed and led the company during all phases of the commissioning of one of Chinas largest open pit gold mines. Mr. Chmelauskas has considerable experience in the exploration, development and mining industry, including a large Placer Dome Inc. gold mine, and business analyst position with chemical manufacturer Methanex Corporation. Mr. Chmelauskas has a Bachelor of Applied Science in Geological Engineering from the University of British Columbia and a Master of Business Administration from Queens University. Donald Christie, Director Mr. Christie is a Chartered Accountant and currently a Partner and Chief Financial Officer with Alexander Capital Group (Alexander Capital). He is a director of Alpha One Corporation, a capital pool company. Prior to his involvement with Alexander Capital, Mr. Christie co-founded Ollerhead Christie & Company Ltd. (Ollerhead Christie), a privately held Toronto investment banking firm which sourced, structured and syndicated debt private placements and provided financial advisory services to a client base comprised primarily of colleges, universities, schools boards and provincial government agencies. Prior to founding Ollerhead Christie, Mr. Christie served as Vice President and a director of Newcourt Capital Inc. (Newcourt), formerly the corporate finance subsidiary of then publicly-traded Newcourt Credit Group, which subsequently combined with the CIT Group, Inc. While at Newcourt, Mr. Christie was involved in the structuring and syndication of over $1.5 billion of transactions. Mr. Christie holds a B.Comm degree from Queens University. K. Sethu Raman, Director Dr. Raman is an independent mining consultant with over 35 years of international experience in all phases of exploration and development and has held senior executive positions in several public mining companies. He spent 13 years with Campbell Chibougamau Mines Ltd. and Royex Gold Group of companies (now Barrick Gold Corp.) in various management positions including Vice President (1980 - 86) where he played a key role in the discovery and development in six operating gold mines and major acquisitions including Hemlo Gold Mine and Nickel Plate Gold Mine. From 1986 to 2004, Dr. Raman was President and CEO of Holmer Gold Mines Limited, which discovered and developed the Timmins West Gold deposit. On December 31, 2004, Lake Shore Gold Corp. acquired all of the issued and outstanding shares of Holmer. Dr. Raman holds a Ph.D (1970) in geology from Carleton University, Ottawa and a UNESCO Post-Graduate Diploma (1965) from University of Vienna, Austria. John S. Rogers, Senior Project Advisor Mr. Rogers was a formerly Manager of Nanisivik and Detour Lake Mines and Director of Operations, Saudi Arabian Mining Company. George Hawley, Technical Advisor Mr. Hawley has 40 years of experience in Industrial Minerals in research, process and product development, market analysis and development.
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Notes
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Notes
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BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
HOLD
SELL
Other Disclosures This report has been approved by Byron for distribution in Canada for the use of Byrons clients. Clients wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed should do so through a qualified Byron salesperson, registered in their jurisdiction. Informational Reports From time to time, Byron will issue reports that are for information purposes only, and will not include investment ratings. These reports will be clearly labeled as appropriate.
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Company Directory
Campbell Becher Geoff Clarke, MBA, LL.B., LL.M. Dale Sampson Gillian Wong-Hinds, CGA Robert Orviss, CFA Derrick Chiu Brad Freelan John Rak Chris Hobbs, CA Greg Borsk, CA Jamie Grundman Steve Lambros, MD Elisa Chio Mary Stuart Russell Mills Marco Beretta Guy Gordon, CFA, MBA Jon Hykawy, PhD, MBA Shawn Morgan Al P. Nagaraj, M.S., MBA Byron Berry, M.A., CFA Jeff Wu, CFA Brian Szeto, M.A., CFA Jonathan Lee, MBA Merril W. McHenry, CFA Omid Ameri Sandy Lam Trading Desk Nick Stajduhar Jonathan Samahin, CFA Tom Chudnovsky David Kemp Cyrus Osena Graham Farrell Kariv Oretsky Nick Perkell Mike Gardner Charles Pollock Charlie Mitchell Taylor Davison Patsy Fernandes Kathy Sherban Joe Ladeira Ali Mohammad Elisabeth Wightwick Dorothy Dudek Sandra Stefanescu Victoria Williston Jen Levy Sandra Day Zarina Belcher Chief Executive Officer President and Chief Operating Officer Chief Compliance Officer Chief Financial Officer
EXECUTIVE
647.426.1657 416.867.8882 416.867.1569 416.867.8883 campbell@byroncapitalmarkets.com gclarke@byroncapitalmarkets.com dsampson@byroncapitalmarkets.com gwh@byroncapitalmarkets.com rorviss@byroncapitalmarkets.com derrick@byroncapitalmarkets.com bfreelan@byroncapitalmarkets.com jrak@byroncapitalmarkets.com chobbs@byroncapitalmarkets.com gborsk@byroncapitalmarkets.com jgrundman@byroncapitalmarkets.com slambros@byroncapitalmarkets.com elisa@byroncapitalmarkets.com mstuart@byroncapitalmarkets.com rmills@byroncapitalmarkets.com mberetta@byroncapitalmarkets.com guy@byroncapitalmarkets.com jhykawy@byroncapitalmarkets.com smorgan@byroncapitalmarkets.com anagaraj@byroncapitalmarkets.com bberry@byroncapitalmarkets.com jwu@byroncapitalmarkets.com bszeto@byroncapitalmarkets.com jlee@byroncapitalmarkets.com mmchenry@byroncapitalmarkets.com oameri@byroncapitalmarkets.com slam@byroncapitalmarkets.com
INVESTMENT BANKING
Managing Director Managing Director, Head of Equity Capital Markets Vice President, Investment Banking Vice President, Investment Banking Co-Head, Mergers and Acquisitions Co-Head, Mergers and Acquisitions Analyst, Investment Banking Associate Associate Associate Associate Associate, Syndication 647.426.1668 647.426.1662 416.867.3144 604.697.2456 647.426.0467 647.426.0466 647.426.0469 647.426.1659 647.426.0288 604.616.5311 647.426.0290
RESEARCH
647.426.0289 647.426.1672 647.426.1656 647.426.0473 647.426.0291 416.867.1623 604.697.2455 647.426.1673 647.426.1674 647.426.1660 416.867.3984 416.867.2375
Managing Director, Head of Research, Oil & Gas Analyst Head of Global Research, Clean Tech and Materials Analyst Managing Editor & Production Coordinator Special Situations Analyst Strategist Mining Analyst Mining Analyst Battery Materials and Technologies Analyst Mining and Metals Analyst Associate Associate
TORONTO VANCOUVER 4 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 1100 1075 WEST GEORGIA STREET, SUITE 1330 TORONTO, ON M5H 1B6 VANCOUVER, BC V6E 3C9
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