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-
The
economic
implications
of
natiionalization
(Part
1)
- Divided
We
Stand,
United
We
Fall
-
Are
we
creating
another
tech-based
bubble?
IN COLLABORATION WITH
PROUDLY SUPPORTED BY
Despite this mineral wealth, South Africa has extremely high levels of poverty (nearly 60% of blacks live below the poverty line 1), unemployment (24.5% as of 2011) and income inequality (its Gini coefficient 2 is 6.3). Contribution to the domestic economy The following diagram indicates the mining and quarrying industries contribution to South Africas Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Contribu2on
to
GDP/
rand
(m)
105991.6
132301.1
156969.7
201381
198180.1
223983.5
Source:
Euromonitor
International
Even excluding the quarrying sector, the mining industry contributes significantly to the countrys economy: as of 2011, it accounted for 9.3% of GDP and about a third of total exports. In addition, South Africa's mining industry provides vital support for the development and continued operations of numerous other domestic industries most notably, the energy, construction, water, engineering, as well as specialist seismic, geological and metallurgical services sectors. For example, 2 Copyright 2011 SMU Economics Intelligence Club
it accounts for 70% of primary energy consumption, 93% of electricity generation and 30% of petroleum liquid fuels. In 2009, the Chamber of Mines estimated that around R200-billion in value (about 8% of the 2009 GDP) was added to the local economy through the intermediate and final product industries that use minerals and resources produced by South Africa's mines. As such, the mining industry is critical to the South African economy as a whole. Present Situation: Coal is the largest category in the South African mining industry in terms of production, comprising nearly one-quarter of the industrys total production volume in 2011. Its coal mining industry is an oligopoly 3: Five multinational companies, Anglo-American, Xstrata, BHP Billiton, Sasol and Exxaro, account for about 80% of total coal production, while various small, privately-owned companies comprise the remaining 20%. Only the last two companies are based in South Africa. Anglo- American is based in London, Xstrata, in Switzerland, and BHP Billiton, in Australia. As such, much of mining revenue is channelled out of South Africa, exacerbating the problems of poverty and income inequality. The recently-enacted Mineral and Petroleum Resources Royalty Act attempts to remedy this by creating a royalties system to facilitate the distribution of benefits derived from mining activities. However, some consider it inadequate. The African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL) has been particularly vociferous on this issue, calling for the government to take over at least 60% of all mines without compensation. They argue that nationalisation of mines is the perfect solution to South Africas economic and social woes, as it would supposedly allow a more equitable distribution of income without compromising employment. But would nationalisation truly solve South Africas three key problems, poverty, inequality and unemployment? To answer this, let us first examine what exactly nationalisation involves, and the arguments for and against it. From there, we shall examine the possible economic effects, and then evaluate whether nationalisation would, indeed, be a feasible proposal for the South African mining industry. What Is Nationalisation? Nationalisation is the transfer of ownership of an industry or assets from a private entity to a national government or public body. It may be partial, with the government holding a majority stake, or total, which means that the public body has sole management and control. The arguments for nationalisation are numerous. Advocates of nationalisation argue, inter alia, that ownership under the state and the subsequent state regulation and oversight is the only way to ensure a constant minimum standard. Many also point out that with state control, steps to ensure the populations access can and will be affected even if it might not be cost effective to do so. This is because universal access and public interest is a key objective, instead of profits. Another oft-cited reason is that nationalisation can help to achieve a more equitable distribution of income, due to the wealth redistribution effect. Nationalisation causes income generated to move from private hands to the state, which then uses the income to fund projects aimed at improving citizen welfare and infrastructure. Wealth is thereby redistributed among the population, theoretically ensuring a more equitable income spread. 3 Copyright 2011 SMU Economics Intelligence Club
Some
advocates
also
argue
that
nationalisation
helps
to
achieve
another
key
macroeconomic
goal
of
full
employment:
since
profit
is
no
longer
the
sole
goal,
the
business
will
be
less
inclined
to
cut
back
excessively
on
labour.
Finally,
the
natural
monopoly
situation
is
another
economic
argument
put
forth
in
favour
of
nationalisation.
Such
industries
produce
essentially
homogenous
products,
and
experience
large
economies
of
scale
due
to
size;
thus,
a
monopoly
would
be
more
economically
efficient
than
a
competitive
market
structure.
The
above
arguments
are
but
some
of
many
in
favour
of
nationalisation.
Persuasive
though
they
are,
the
case
against
nationalisation
is
equally
strong,
and
will
be
closely
examined
in
Part
Two
of
the
article.
Part
Two
also
explains
the
possible
domestic,
regional
and
global
impacts
of
nationalisation.
of
data.
South
Africas
is
calculated
based
on
the
money
income
required
to
attain
a
basic
minimal
standard
of
living.
2
This
is
used
to
measure
income
inequality.
The
coefficient
varies
between
0,
which
reflects
complete
equality
and
1,
which
indicates
complete
inequality.
Situation
in
which
a
small
group
of
companies
dominate
a
particular
market.
Of
only
two
are
present,
this
is
termed
a
duopoly.
The
dominant
companies
may
collude
to
control
supply
or
market
price.
Sources:
Euromonitor
International,
The
Economist,
Mining
Weekly,
The
Chamber
of
Mines
South
Africa,
Transparency
International
2011.
There is no single definition of a poverty line. Countries construct their own by using various sets
Billions ( Euros)
200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% Government Net Debt (% of GDP) - RHS
However,
in
reality,
the
scenario
of
Greece
leaving
the
Eurozone
may
not
be
as
grim
as
the
taboo
word
default
suggests
and
could
even
contribute
to
strengthening
of
the
Eurozone
in
the
long
run,
following
an
initial
and
inevitable
period
of
volatility
and
turbulence.
After
defaulting
and
exiting
the
Eurozone,
Greece
may
be
able
to
reverse
the
negative
growth
and
nationalise
the
banks
to
move
towards
more
productive
investments
in
the
agriculture
industry.
Also,
when
reintroducing
the
Greek
Drachma,
the
new
currencys
value
would
dramatically
devalue
against
the
euro,
making
the
countrys
exports
competitive
again.
From
the
social
aspect,
the
Greeks
will
also
be
spared
of
more
painful
jobs,
salaries
and
pension
cuts
that
affect
the
daily
lives
and
livelihoods
of
the
middle
class.
However,
every
well
thought-out
plan
has
its
downsides.
This
plan
may
lead
to
higher
national
debts
for
Greece
as
their
current
obligations
are
denominated
in
euro
despite
taking
a
haircut1.
Greeces
current
credit
rating
of
CC2
(by
Standard
&
Poors)
could
be
further
downgraded
as
Greek
companies
struggle
to
get
access
to
money
from
the
international
capital
market.
Choosing
the
scenario
above
can
probably
lead
to
similar
path
experienced
by
Argentina
in
1999
when
it
defaulted
on
its
foreign
debts
and
unpegged
the
Peso
from
the
US
dollars.
Argentina
eventually
recovered
to
its
pre-recession
level
of
output
in
three
years
after
the
crisis
and
has
been
growing
positively
since.
Greece
can
emulate
the
Argentinians
and
do
what
is
socially
and
economically
viable
for
its
citizens.
Next
Patient
Please
So
whats
next
for
the
EU
leaders
after
Greece
defaults?
The
EU
leaders
may
certainly
welcome
this
move
as
more
funds
from
the
current
European
Financial
Stability
Facility3
(EFSF),
which
set
to
be
replaced
by
European
Stability
Mechanism4
(ESM)
in
July
2012,
can
be
channelled
to
contain
risks
of
high
borrowing
costs
emanating
from
Italy
and
Spain.
The
recent
bond
auctions
of
Italy
and
Spain
which
set
a
new
Euro-Era
high
of
7.3%
and
6.975%
yield
respectively
is
a
major
cause
of
concern
that
needs
to
be
address
immediately.
With
Italy
and
Spain
being
the
4th
and
6th
largest
economy
in
Europe,
the
worries
of
these
2
nations
being
too
big
to
fail
will
be
constantly
on
the
minds
of
Chancellor
Merkel
and
co
after
getting
the
Greece
deal
off
the
table.
Similar
to
the
Great
Financial
Crisis
of
2008,
a
crisis
that
takes
years
to
form
cannot
be
completely
resolved
in
a
year
(2011).
The
EU
leaders
will
have
to
stomach
the
volatility
and
turbulence
ahead
for
the
near
future
until
a
credible
plan
that
inspires
market
confidence
prevails.
Haircut:
Reduction
of
value
to
debts
or
securities
used
as
collateral
in
a
loan
currently highly vulnerable EFSF: Special purpose vehicle aim at preserving financial stability in Europe by providing financial assistance to Eurozone states in economics difficulty with a total guarantee up to 780billion 4 ESM: Permanent rescue funding programme starting in July 2012 with a total capacity of 500 billion 7 Copyright 2011 SMU Economics Intelligence Club
Source: Renaissance Capital Ideally, a shares price is valued by finding the present value of all cash flows that the share will generate a combination of dividend returns and capital gains. These cash flows are based on company profits (dividends are a percent of profits) and revenues, which broadly identify a companys growth potential. In the case of Microsofts 2011 fiscal year, we see revenue of just shy of $70 billion and a net profit of about $23 billion. However, Facebooks estimated revenue from advertising, their sole source of income, was estimated to be about $2 billion. From this we learn that Microsofts revenue is about 35 times greater than Facebooks and yet is only valued at 4 times of Facebook. The argument that would normally be presented for any other company would be that the high current valuation is based on the speculation that the company will grow and in turn revenues and profits will grow in line with the current valuation. Without using financial modelling such as a DCF model, I am confident that there is no way that this social medial site can increase its revenues to come even close to its current valuation. The reason is simple: lack of revenue drivers. In an industry where the customer pays for virtually nothing, market share means little. Although the social media giants like Facebook and LinkedIn can highlight impressive numbers of users, they simply cannot do the same with their revenue and profit numbers. Besides generic online advertising, which is proving to be less effective than once thought, what other revenue drivers do these sites have? The question that then beckons to be asked is what is causing these over-inflated prices of social media sites? The reasons behind many bubbles are 8 Copyright 2011 SMU Economics Intelligence Club
varied. In this case, I believe that investors are overly confident about the true capability of social media sites to generate cash flows and this overconfidence is what is causing the disparity between valuation and intrinsic value. Of course it is virtually impossible to judge the true intrinsic value of companies like Facebook that are both young and enigmatic when it comes to their financial performance. Hence, only time will tell whether not there is truly a disparity. For the sake of this article being holistic, we should consider the situation in which social media sites are not being overvalued, meaning that future cash flows generated would in fact be in line with the high valuations. This could be achieved by generating new forms of revenue. New forms of advertising or user based donations and subscriptions may cause spikes in revenues and profits. However, it is still my opinion that these options are too limited to justify the current markets view of social media. It may seem that this article has been very narrowly focused on Facebook and perhaps the financial basis of stock valuation. Although this is true, it is important to realize that Facebook is simply the poster boy of the social media and online trend, other businesses that are piggy backing this social media wave exhibit similar trends in valuation. From an economic perspective, if this is indeed a bubble, it must pop at some point. When this happens, equity prices will plummet, investor confidence will drop and a loss in wealth will occur. Although the degree to which a bubble affects the economy is debated, it is generally accepted that it is not a good thing. In economic times as turbulent as these, the last thing investors need now is another blow to their confidence and the potential to lose accumulated wealth overnight. The important lesson that history has taught us is not to get caught up in investor hype and to never purchase an asset simply because of rising prices. Sources: The Economist, Yahoo! Finance, MSNBC 9 Copyright 2011 SMU Economics Intelligence Club
What are the Economic Implications of Nationalization? (Part 2) & much more
The S&P 500 is a free-float capitalization-weighted index published since 1957 of the prices of 500 large- cap common stocks actively traded in the United States. It has been widely regarded as a gauge for the large cap US equities market The MSCI Asia ex Japan Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of 10 developed and emerging market country indices: China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. The STOXX Europe 600 Index is regarded as a benchmark for European equity markets. It represents large, mid and small capitalization companies across 18 countries of the European region: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
Correspondents Shane Ai Changxun changxun.ai.2010@smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Tan Jia Ming Jiaming.tan.2010@smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Adam Tan Adam.tan.2009@business.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Kwan Yu Wen (Designer) Ywkwan.2010@economics.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore
Ben Lim ben.lim.2010@smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Lisa Ho lisa.ho.2010@law.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore Gabriel Tan gtan@bu.edu Boston University United States Herman Cheong (Designer) wq.cheong.2011@economics.smu.edu.sg Singapore Management University Singapore
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